The 2022 Bears were a dreadful football team. But as anyone who followed the approach of new general manager Ryan Poles can attest, they were dreadful in the most perfect way: they lost their way to the #1 overall pick in the 2023 draft and they cemented Justin Fields as The One for the franchise.
It's no surprise, then, that the 2023 offseason is a pivotal one for the club. The Bears have two more years with Fields on a cheap rookie deal before his fifth-year option in 2025 and a massive extension to follow. The Bears need to surround Fields with more toys while building a front seven defensively nearly from scratch (thank goodness for Jack Sanborn). Free agency and the draft will be crucial.
Before getting there, however, here's the way the roster stands before the offseason commences. The below assumes that the Bears make a pair of obvious cuts in longtime G Cody Whitehair and free agent flop DE Al-Quadin Muhammad; I also project them to cut DT Justin Jones and C Lucas Patrick despite the relative meager cap savings there (and the fact that Poles raved about Jones). Cutting the quartet yields only $12.5425M of additional cap space in 2023, mostly from Whitehair ($8.06M), but more importantly, they trim the fat from the roster as it turns over.
QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian
HB: Khalil Herbert, Trestan Ebner, __________, __________
FB: __________
WR: Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, __________, __________
TE: Cole Kmet, __________, __________, __________
OT: Braxton Jones, Larry Borom, Alex Leatherwood, __________
OG: Teven Jenkins, Ja'Tyre Carter, __________
C: Doug Kramer, __________
DE: Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson, __________, __________, __________
DT: __________, __________, __________, __________
OLB: __________, __________, __________
ILB: Jack Sanborn, __________
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones, __________
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, __________, __________, __________
ST: Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill, __________
Perhaps surprisingly, there are a couple of position groups in good shape on this roster. Namely, the quarterback room doesn't scream out for an upgrade for the first time in...my entire life? Wow. Additionally, the secondary is strong. The weak position groups, however, need an incredible amount of turnover. So let's get to it.
First, the Bears should bring back a couple of special teams mainstays, ideally also keeping a 2022 acquisition who flashed while dealing with injuries.
Bears sign LS Patrick Scales and FS DeAndre Houston-Carson to minimum-salary deals
With the resignings out of the way, we turn to the market where the Bears figure to spend big. The needs are voluminous, so we'll deal with them one group at a time.
While both Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson have flashed, the Bears need two new starting defensive ends. Free agency offers a number of intriguing options. Importantly, the draft is deep with edge defenders but relatively modest at DT. DEs that jump out to me:
- Marcus Davenport (27): Davenport has largely disappointed as a former 1st rounder with the Saints, but he erupted with a massive 2021 season which he promptly followed with only half a sack in 2022. That's deceptive as Davenport continued to generate consistent pressure, but the lack of sacks will likely depress his market a bit. I project him for $100M over five years.
- Jadeveon Clowney (30): Clowney is a big name nearing the end of a useful career, albeit not an elite one. He'd be a solid starter on a short deal at something like $11M per year.
- Clelin Ferrell (26): Ferrell hasn't been good with the Raiders. But he's not bad, he's young, and it isn't his fault that they took him 4th overall when most had him pegged in the second half of the first round. I love Ferrell as something like $5M on a one-year deal, acknowledging that something seems off with the Raiders franchise.
- Dawuane Smoot (28): He'd project to a swing role. Solid pass rushing. 2 years at $12M per should work.
- Samson Ebukam (28): A part-time player, he's probably too small for what the Bears need. Maybe $8M per over three years.
- Zach Allen (26). Allen is young, big, and productive. He'd be a nice target on a deal similar to Smoot, albeit for an extra year or two.
In the end, Davenport offers a much higher ceiling than the others. He'll get paid like a star even though he isn't one. So it goes in free agency.
Bears sign DE Marcus Davenport to a 5-year, $100M deal
Bears sign DE Clelin Ferrell to a 1-year, $5M deal
The DT spot is just as essential, if not more so, than the DE need. Unfortunately for the Bears, the top option in free agency won't likely reach free agency. So here goes:
- Da'Ron Payne (26): Payne is the clear-cut top free agent defensive lineman, and if he reaches free agency, the Bears will pay him whatever he wants to get him to Chicago. There's a small chance that Washington lets him hit the market given their recent extension of Jonathan Allen and upcoming needs for Chase Young and Montez Sweat. But no. He's not reaching free agency. The Commanders will slap the franchise tag on him and figure out the cap situation later. If he reaches free agency, he's another 5-year, $100M deal.
- Javon Hargrave (30): Despite his age, Hargrave is the clear #2 option after Payne. He's been extremely productive for many years now. Coming off of a three-year, $39M deal, I think he'll nab another three-year deal at $16M per.
- Dalvin Tomlinson (29): Tomlinson is much less flashy than Payne, but he's better than anything the Bears have currently. $12M per for three years should work.
- A'Shawn Robinson (28): I loved Robinson in the draft, but he hasn't really made it as a pro. Oh well. Similar deal to Tomlinson.
- Sheldon Rankins (29): Rankins is another plug-and-play starter who figures to command a bit less than the names above. Maybe $10M per for two years.
- Chris Wormley (29): Wormley is smaller and less productive, but he would provide a solid rotational piece on short deal, something like two years at $6M per year.
Bears sign DT Javon Hargrave to a 3-year, $50M deal
Bears sign DT Sheldon Rankins to a 2-year, $20M deal
If the Bears strike out on one or more of their top defensive line prospects, they could pivot to the top of the linebacker market. Linebacker targets:
- Tremaine Edmunds (25). Definitely the top linebacker target, I think Edmunds gets something like $68M over four years. Thanks for pushing the market upward, Roquan!
- The remaining linebacker targets are all outside linebackers, none of whom really move the needle in a huge way. Kaden Elliss (28) (2yr @ $6M AAV), Germaine Pratt (27) (4yr @ $8M AAV), and David Long (26) (2yr @ $5M AAV) all fit the bill of bit piece. Only TJ Edwards (27) (5yr @ $14M AAV) really moves the needle, but it's hard to see him getting out of Philly.
Bears sign OLB David Long to a 2-year, $10M deal
The defensive backfield will probably get a piece from the draft, but free agency doesn't make much sense.
This moves us to the offense. There are some serious needs on the offensive side. To me, the most important target is to find a quality, vetern center for Fields. Thankfully, this is a great year to need a quality, veteran center.
- Ethan Pocic (28): Pocic has a solid pedigree and doesn't figure to break the bank. Nice.
- Bradley Bozeman (28): Whereas Pocic is a bit undersized, Bozeman is massive. He's also not as good.
- Connor McGovern (30): McGovern is the top of the market and his price tag figures to go there. Unfortunately, at 30, he doesn't figure to age quite as well with Fields especially not on a long-term deal at something like $13M per.
- Garrett Bradbury (28): Bradbury has the pedigree as a former 1st rounder who finally put it together in 2022. He's a strong option.
Bears sign C Ethan Pocic to a 4-year, $36M deal
The Bears should be steering clear of Orlando Brown Jr. Brown is solid, but he's not an elite LT despite the fact that he's about to get paid like one. Elgton Jenkins extending with the Packers really cut down this market. Thankfully, the interior offensive line options in the draft are generally strong. If the Bears elect to pour into the guard or RT spots, there are some solid options like Evan Brown (27) (3yr @ $11M AAV), Nate Davis (27) (3yr @ $8M), or Isaac Seumalo (30) (2yr @ $12M AAV).
The Bears will bring in at least two additional tight ends, but given Cole Kmet's development in recent years, they're unlikely to swim near the top of the free agent market. Perhaps a deal for someone like Austin Hooper (28) makes sense on a short-term deal like $8M per year over two years.
The wide receiver market is bad. There's no sugarcoating it. The only two meaningful options are JuJu Smith-Schuster (26) and Mecole Hardman (25), each of whom figures to get something like $15M per year in the aftermath of Christian Kirk's deal despite not justifying anything close to that.
Finaly, there's the extremely overloaded running back market. Elite targets like Saquon Barkley (26), Josh Jacobs (25), and Miles Sanders (26) figure to get franchise tagged. Even Tony Pollard (26) may get tagged. Ironically, this may make it tougher for the Bears to bring back David Montgomery (26) as he doesn't figure to get tagged, thus making him arguably the top option on the market. This is my ideal offseason, though, so we're not spending free agent dollars on a running back.
Tally it all up and here's my ideal free agency spending spree:
Ideal Free Agency
- Sign DE Marcus Davenport for 5 years, $100M.
- Sign DT Javon Hargrave for 3 years, $50M.
- Sign DT Sheldon Rankins for 2 years, $20M.
- Sign C Ethan Pocic for 4 years, $36M.
- Sign OLB David Long for 2 years, $10M.
- Sign DE Clelin Ferrell for 1 year, $5M.
- Sign S DeAndre Houston-Carson for 1 year, $1.5M.
- Sign LS Patrick Scales for 1 year, $1.3M.
The above signings allocate $70M of AAV under the cap even without pushing cap hits down the road, well short of the Bears' approximately $110M. This leaves lots of space for extensions, too. They also set up the team well in a draft that is loaded with CBs and DEs while being quite light on DTs.
(I'd also be happy to see N'Keal Harry come back on an inexpensive deal, but something seems off with Harry; nobody is talking him up and he can't get on the field.)
With the roster having received a massive jolt from free agency, the Bears should find themselves entering draft weekend far less desperate than they are right now. This should offer numerous opportunities to utilize the #1 overall pick in an effort to add depth to a roster sorely in need of young talent to complement the bevy of free agent additions.
But how to do so? There are three real options:
- Keep the pick and take the draft's best overall player. Whoever this player ends up being, it's highly unlikely that he'll offer sufficient value to the roster to pass up the bevy of picks that #1 overall could return in a trade.
- I don't see a player in this draft who justifies such a selection. Alabama DE Will Anderson is incredibly quick and polished...but he's also under 240 pounds. Georgia DT Jalen Carter is a freakish athlete and productive player, but it's tough to justify taking a DT at #1. The other defenders haven't pushed themselves up this high yet in draft consideration.
- Make one trade to the highest bidder. There are numerous options here, and if one club falls in love with one quarterback, perhaps they'd be willing to pay enough of a premium to justify one trade.
- The PFF mock draft simulator provides some vague simulation possibilities. For example, if the Panthers think that their roster is ready to take the mantel from Tom Brady in the NFC South once they fix their quarterback position and they offer a king's ransom to move from #9 to #1, Ryan Poles will listen. Poles will likely pull the trigger for something like Carolina's 1st rounders in 2023, 2024, and 2025, 2nds in 2023 and 2024, and Carolina's 3rd in 2025 along with San Francisco's 2nd in 2023.
- Another example: the Raiders could trade Derek Carr, then flip their 1sts and 2nds in 2023, 2024, and 2025 for #1 overall.
- Trade down a couple of times to maximize the overall haul of picks. Far and away, this is my favorite option. The Bears make it abundantly clear that they're trading #1 overall to the top bidder. The Texans spend months falling in love with their top QB target, and in an effort to ensure that they don't lose him, they send a package of picks to move from #2 to #1. Then, the Bears find another team that has fallen in love with one of the other QBs and swap with them to move up to #2 to get their guy. So here we go!
Thankfully, we have some precedent for a one-spot move near the top of the draft. Unfortunately, the precedent comes from the Bears' nightmarish deal in 2017 to land Mitchell Trubisky. In that deal, the Bears sent the 49ers #67, #111, and a 2018 3rd round pick to move from #3 to #2.
The Bears should be able to command a slightly greater premium for Houston to move from #2 to #1. With that in mind, in the day's leading up to the draft, they kick off this trading frenzy:
(each trade includes the Jimmy Johnson chart value -- which still appears to hold major sway in the NFL -- with future picks estimate and discounted by 25%)
Bears trade #1 to Texans for #2, #65, #73, and Houston's 2024 3rd
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 3,000 for 3,225 (2,600 + 265 + 225 + 135)
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 1,000 for 902 (717 + 78 + 65 + 42)
The only difference between the Bears-49ers trade in 2017 and this trade is that the Texans surrender the 2023 3rd that they acquired from Cleveland instead of sending a 4th. Could the Bears get even more from Houston? Possibly, but this is still plenty fair in my mind.
(The mock draft that follows uses the PFF mock draft simulator and assumes that the Bears have their own picks in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th rounds in addition to Baltimore's 2nd, Philly's 4th, and New England's 5th. The actual draft slots are occasionally off by a spot, but that doesn't meaningfully change the projection.)
The Bears then turn to the Colts, Raiders, Falcons, Panthers, Commanders, Titans, and maybe even the Lions or Jets to see who most desperately wants the QB of their choice. And they take the highest offer. Given the public comments from Colts GM Chris Ballard, I think he'll ultimately be the one to pony up.
Bears trade #2 to Colts for #4, #35, and Indianapolis's 2024 1st and 2nd
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 2,600 for 3,273 (1,800 + 550 + 638 + 285)
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 717 for 945 (491 + 170 + 202 + 82)
Boom. This trade resets the Bears' war chest in a huge way. Assuming that a QB and Anderson/Carter go 2nd and 3rd, the Bears have their pick of the litter of the remaining top defensive prospects: whichever of Anderson or Carter didn't go 3rd, Clemson DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson DE Myles Murphy, and Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson. They could also pivot to Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski, who is magnificently following in Rashawn Slater's footsteps.
Then again, they could instead survey the field, determine that they have tons of quality targets still on their board, and trade down again. Given that Murphy is my favorite defender on the board given his very high floor, that's the path we're taking here.
Bears trade #4 to Raiders for #7, #38, #70, and #109
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 1,800 for 2,336 (1,500 + 520 + 240 + 76)
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 491 for 685 (426 + 157 + 70 +32)
This deal would result in a dream come true: it pushes the third quarterback to the AFC and ensures that the Lions don't acquire a QB better than Jared Goff. Standing pat at #4 very likely results in the Lions nabbing a higher ceiling at QB, though it doesn't cut down Detroit's massive draft capital while enriching the depth of the Bears organization. Dealing with Detroit would also be a worthy move; the Bears aren't in a spot to get choosy about their trade partners or worry about adding too much talent to an opponent.
#7: Bears select Alabama DE Will Anderson
The centerpiece of the defensive line rebuild better come in free agency. The capstone, however, comes here as Anderson is an explosive force from day one. I actually prefer Clemson DE Myles Murphy, but I don't know think he gets out of the top five. It's unlikely that Anderson gets here either, but he did in this mock, and in any draft where all three of Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Will Levis go in the top five, somebody will slip who shouldn't. For purposes of the rebuild, if this is Anderson or Murphy, I'll be ecstatic.
I do worry about Anderson's weight. But there's no denying that he's relentless and spent the last few years as the explosive heart of Alabama's defense. He could be a menace to opposing QBs for years. I like him a lot better at #7 than I do in the top two.
Bears trade #35 to Saints for #40 and #71
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 550 for 735 (500 + 235)
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 170 for 217 (149 + 68)
This trade is a no-brainer at this point in the draft to me. There are about a dozen quality players here; picking up an extra 3rd to slide back a few spots is a definte yes.
#38: Bears select Arkansas LB Drew Sanders
OLB definitely isn't the biggest need, especially in an era where the nickle is the base defense. But Sanders justifies deviating from linemen here for me. I'm a huge fan of his and think that he'd be a plug and play three-down starter.
Bears trade #40 to Falcons for #44 and #75
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 500 for 675 (460 + 215)
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 149 for 198 (135 + 63)
The Bears need to make a couple of deals like this, trading back to acquire additional picks or to trade way up with other picks. With a handful of linemen on the board, trading back works. In the end, trading down from #35 to #44 netted two 3rds.
#44: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
Wright may not make it this far on draft day. He's likely to be a significant riser given his frame and athleticism.
#54: Bears select Kansas State DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
This is great value. Anudike-Uzomah is very strong with an NFL body. His selection is bad news for Trevis Gipson.
Bears Trade #75 and #109 to Giants for #57
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 291 (215 + 76) for 330
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 95 (63 + 32) for 96
A trade up! I rarely approve. But there's one receiver who I love here...
#57: Bears select Penn State WR Parker Washington
I don't think that the Bears are going to completely rework their receiver room this year. Improving the offensive line and the defense are the best ways to relieve pressure on Justin Fields. But a reliable security blanket in the slot would be wonderfully helpful.
#64: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks
Brooks has become a real favorite of mine. He's a much bigger Dominique Robinson, big enough to slide inside and wreak havoc with his extremely athletic frame. Brooks was also extremely productive in college. He was a menacing edge rusher at 6-4, 300 lbs., but I think he's an ideal three technique who can even carry a bit more weight.
#65: Bears select Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt
Another guy who did nothing in college before exploding for one year at Tennessee who the Bears draft in the third round? Meh. I get the Velus Jones Jr. comp. But I'm still rolling the dice on Hyatt here.
#70: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
Iowa TEs are probably the safest bets in the world of football.
#71: Bears select Maryland CB Deonte Banks
Banks is a great fit in a zone-heavy scheme with a long frame and long arms. I'm always on the lookout for the next Peanut Tillman, and Banks has the body to get there, though he also lacks the speed to get drafted much higher than this. Drafting Banks enables Kyler Gordon to spend even more time in the slot.
Bears trade #73 to Chargers for #85 and a 2024 3rd
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 225 for 304 (165 + 139)
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 65 for 92 (50 + 42)
Grab an extra pick, especially when there isn't an obvious pick to be made here.
#85: Bears select Ohio State OT Dawand Jones
There were other players here that I liked better and even some quality trade-down options. But Jones is too intriguing. He's an absolute mountain of a man at 6-8, 360 lbs. and a true mauler in the run game. Does he have the feet to play RT in the NFL? No, I don't think so...but if he does, he's a star. If he doesn't, he can maul from a guard spot instead where lacking quickness is less of a problem. Either Wright or Jones can slide inside to get the best five on the field.
#103: Bears select TCU C Steve Avila
Avila might be a G in the NFL, but that's not a problem and it's nice to have a guy with lots of experience at C on the roster. Avila is massive, but he probably needs a bit of time to get into better shape. No problem. The Bears can give him that time.
Bears Trade #134, #136, and #217 to Texans for #104
Jimmy Johnson chart evaluation: Bears trade 80 (39 + 38 + 3) for 86
Rich Hill chart evaluation: Bears trade 20 (19+18+3) for 34
What's this? Another trade up? Another trade up! I'm not supposed to fall in love with one player, but that's precisely what I did here. Sue me.
#104: Bears select Notre Dame S Brandon Joseph
Joseph struggled in 2022, in large part due to injuries. Here's hoping he can eventually regain the form that made him a star at Northwestern before his transfer. He brings a bit of extra value as a punt returner.
Bears trade DE Trevis Gipson to Chiefs for #123
Gipson plateaued in 2022 and he has the unfortunate reality of having been brought in my the Ryan Pace regime. The Chiefs gladly trade a Day Three pick for a fringe starter during their window of contention.
#123: Bears select Tulane RB Tyjae Spears
I was high on him before the Cotton Bowl. Now everyone is high on Spears.
#149: Bears select Western Kentucky DT Brodric Martin
Martin is massive. Truly massive. He can start out in goal line sets, then try to grow his reps from there.
Following the free agency and draft above, below is the final roster for 2023. Free agents signings are italicized and draftees are bolded.
QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian
HB: Khalil Herbert, Tyjae Spears, Trestan Ebner, __________
FB: __________
WR: Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, Parker Washington, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, Jalin Hyatt
TE: Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, __________
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Dawand Jones, Larry Borom, Alex Leatherwood
OG: Teven Jenkins, Ja'Tyre Carter
C: Ethan Pocic, Steve Avila, Doug Kramer
DE: Marcus Davenport, Will Anderson, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Dominique Robinson, Clelin Ferrell Trevis Gipson
DT: Javon Hargrave, Sheldon Rankins, Karl Brooks, Brodric Martin
OLB: David Long, Drew Sanders, ____________
ILB: Jack Sanborn, __________
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Deonte Banks, Kindle Vildor, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Brandon Joseph, DeAndre Houston-Carson, ___________
ST: Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales
The Bears need another tight end and some more linebackers, but this roster doesn't look anything like the scrub-laden group assembled for the 2022 tank. In addition to that wildly improved roster, the Bears find themselves heading into the 2024 draft with the following picks:
1st: Chicago
1st: Indianapolis
2nd: Chicago
2nd: Indianapolis
3rd: Chicago
3rd: Houston
3rd: Los Angeles Chargers
4th: Chicago
5th: Chicago
6th: Chicago
7th: Chicago
(A final note: it certainly appears that the PFF trade simulator is more permissive than it should be as the Bears "won" their trades above to the tune of 1,918 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart, equivalent to the 4th overall pick and change, and 419 points on the Rich Hill chart, equivalent to nearly the 7th overall pick. To be fair, Ryan Pace gave away value in excess of #1 overall during his tenure using the Chase Stuart pick value chart...and that's before the Justin Fields trade that yielded Justin Fiels for the Bears with the 11th pick (yay!) at the cost of picks #7, #20, #112, and #164 (yikes!). Regardless, if the Bears getting marginally worse picks back in every deal, I still vastly prefer this approach to one where the Bears get only one pick in the top-50 this spring.)
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