It's late, so let's get right to it. Bears GM Ryan Poles spent weeks indicating that any team wanting to obtain the #1 overall pick in April's draft well in advance of draft day would have to pay a premium to do so. On Friday afternoon, Poles made good on his word. The haul:
- #9 overall
- #61 overall
- 2024 1st
- 2025 2nd
- WR D.J. Moore
I considered so many trade proposals along the way, many of them with the Panthers. Yet never once did I consider that any team trading for #1 overall would trade away their top receiver, leaving their new prized quarterback to fend for himself without the help of a top receiving option. I was wrong.
Most commentators adore the return that Poles snared for this pick. I'm with them, ultimately deciding that this was a spectacular haul for a few reasons.
But first, the "negatives." That word is in quotes because these aren't true negatives, rather unpleasant components with the trade. First, I don't like that Poles didn't get Carolina's own 2nd round pick in 2023 (#39), instead only getting San Francisco's selection (#61). Second, I expected this trade to feature more picks coming back to the Bears, albeit in the form of a couple of 3rds or 4ths to go along with the more premium picks. Third, Poles made the trade when I was packing up for a weekend away. Not his fault -- just bad timing for me!
Instead, Poles went with fewer, more premium assets. Objectively, I think he made a great choice. So what all did I like about this deal?
Most importantly, Poles extracted the desired premium for making an early trade. Obviously he got Carolina's 1sts in 2023 and 2024; outside of dealing with Houston, that was going to be a given. The other parts of the deal were what was at stake. There's a decent argument to be made that getting #9, #61, a 2024 1st, and a 2025 2nd would've been a fair composite deal. Not a barnburner but fair. But that's not where we are.
Instead, arguably the single most valuable asset that Poles received in the deal is Moore. Is Moore a bonafide #1? I'm not 100% certain, but I think so. The fact that he's (i) in that category, (ii) signed to a significantly under-market deal (three years, $52M remaining), and (iii) in his prime when turning 26 this season makes him a dynamite addition. This year's free agent crop of receivers is dreadful. And while the draft features some intriguing options, none of the possible draftees are in their prime with a trio of 1,100-yard seasons in the NFL under their belt. Moore enables the Bears to more fully evaluate QB Justin Fields, to spend some desperately needed cash (more on that in a moment), and to slot fellow WRs Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool into preferred roles as complementery pieces.
Some folks on Bears Twitter complained that Poles only got one future 1st back in the deal, lamenting that Carolina's 2025 pick didn't come to Chicago. To me, that shows a fundamental misunderstanding of Moore's value and what it would take to acquire a player of his ilk on its own. Simply put, if a team offered a single 2025 1st for D.J. Moore, they wouldn't be in the ballpark. The price for Moore started with a 2023 1st plus additional compensation. This isn't merely hypothetical; reporting indicates that the Packers offered their 1st for Moore during the season and were turned down. So, if Moore is worth north of a 2023 1st, replacing a 2025 1st with Moore would make this deal a massive win. More likely, if a 2025 1st was going to be the centerpiece of a Moore deal, I suspect it would've come along with a 2023 2nd.
So, had the haul for #1 overall instead been the following, would Bears fans have rejoiced?
- #9 overall
- #40 overall
- #61 overall
- 2024 1st
- 2025 1st
- 2025 2nd
Duh. Of course. That kind of haul likely would've been seen as too much. But that's the kind of value that Poles just got, plus he gets to give his third-year quarterback a chance to make the leap as a passer that I believe he'll make. Truly incredible stuff.
This may be the best trade that the Bears have made in my lifetime. And all this because of Lovie Smith. What a hero!
Actually, one more though on the luck that the Bears enjoyed. While there's no true generational QB like Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams at the top of this draft, there are enough franchise-caliber QBs that the Bears could swing this deal. Had the Bears instead had the #1 pick in last year's draft, would there have been any market for this pick? There were some quality players at the top of last year's draft like Aidan Hutchinson, Sauce Gardner, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, but no team traded up to grab a top-10 player with the first trade-up being New Orleans jumping to #11 to draft Chris Olave.
This trade dictates what the 2020s will be for the Bears, but the likelihood of the stars aligning as they did for this to happen? Astronomical.
It's worth noting that this trade fundamentally changes the outlook for 2023. Prior to this trade bringing Moore to Chicago, 2023 could've been a stepping stone kind of season. Not anymore. This trade says that the Bears expect to push for a playoff spot in 2023 before announcing themselves as true contenders in 2024.
The 2022 Jaguars are the template here.
I mentioned that Moore involves spending some cash, not just cap space. In addition to a salary cap and salary floor, the NFL CBA contains a cash spending floor. Given how much dead money the Bears ate against the salary cap in 2022, they need to spend at least $235M in 2023 to satisfy their cash spending obligation this year. With a cap of $225M and nearly $15M in dead cap space, the Bears will need to utilize a slew of signing bonuses both on free agent deals and extensions to hit this floor.
Given the NFL offseason calendar, there's no time to bask in the glow of the big trade because free agency's tampering period opens in a few hours. Despite the excitement surrounding this big addition to the Bears, the club still needs the following starting/starting-caliber players in my view:
- LG (Cody Whitehair will likely be cut)
- C (Lucas Patrick should be cut)
- RT
- DE
- DE
- DT (3 tech)
- DT (1 tech)
- LB
- LB
- CB
The team should also add a #2 TE, though obviously Cole Kmet has the starting gig there. As part of addressing some of those needs, the Bears have the following picks in this year's draft:
- #9
- #53
- #61
- #64
- #103
- #133
- #136
- #148
- #218
- #258
The Bears should expect to get starters out of those first four picks, but the remaining six picks aren't likely to start from the beginning. I'd love to see Poles trade down once more, especially if Anthony Richardson or Will Levis remains on the board at #9 with a team like Washington or Tampa Bay wanting to jump Tennessee, but let's assume he stands pat now.
Given the number of needs that the Bears have, these picks will fill some of the holes on the roster. However, Poles should not be drafting players specifically to fill roster holes. The Bears still need a huge infusion of talent and need to take the best player available at every slot, almost without regard to position.
So, how does Poles avoid needing to fill holes in the draft? That's where free agency comes in. Poles will plug a few holes this week, giving the team a chance to field a much more competitive roster in 2023. Here's a look at the 10 spots mentioned above with some thoughts on possible free agent and draft solutions, including a pick for each spot:
1. DT (3 techinque)
Why?: The 3 technique is the heart and soul of the Eberflus defense and, simply put, the roster doesn't have a plausible 3 tech right now. Justin Jones was a guy last year and should be cut given his contract status.
Free Agent Options: Thankfully, there are three quality options at 3 technique here. Javon Hargrave is the top non-QB free agent and he just so happens to occupy this spot despite his advanced age (30). Dre'Mont Jones lacks Hargrave's consistency, though he has shown an aptitude to get to the QB and he has youth (26) on his side. Arizona's Zach Allen is a tier below but coming off of a nice season. Finally, David Onyemata could technically fill this role, but he lacks the upside of Hargrave and Jones.
Draft Options: Jalen Carter (1st) is dealing with off-the-field issues, but could be a star. Calijah Kancey (1st) is trying to be Aaron Donald 2.0. Clemson's Bryan Bresee (1st) was an elite prospect coming out of high school, but he struggled this year with a family disaster. Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore (2nd) and Bowling Green's Karl Brooks (2nd/3rd) are both exceptionally athletic and kick could inside; Brooks, in particular, is one of my favorite prospects in the entire draft. If he's there at #103, I desperately hope that he's the pick. Depth options include Moro Ojomo (3rd/4th), Kobie Turner (3rd/4th), Jaquelin Roy (3rd/4th), Gervon Dexter (3rd/4th), Zacch Pickens (4th), and Byron Young (4th).
Prediction: The price will be astronomical, but the defense doesn't work without a plus 3 technique. So, it's either Hargrave for 3/$63M or Jones for 4/$72M. But one of them definitely signs, though the signing doesn't proclude Poles from using his top pick on a DT.
2. DE
Why?: Yikes! The Bears have only Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson on the roster. They need two need starters at DE to get into the backfield.
Free Agent Options: Free agency kind of stinks here. Plenty of playable guys, but no stars. Marcus Davenport has the ceiling but tons of injuries. Jadeveon Clowney is a mercenary. Charles Omenihu has legal problems and a modest ceiling. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Samson Ebukam are similar without the legal problems. Arden Key is likely a one-hit wonder. Justin Houston, Kyle Van Noy, Yannick Ngakoue, and Trey Flowers are all some comination of old and/or limited, despite Ngakoue's sack consistency. Rasheem Green and Dawuane Smoot are decent-enough starters.
Draft Options: Thank goodness there are dozens of quality DEs. Will Anderson Jr. (1st) and Tyree Wilson (1st) lead the class. Lukas Van Ness (1st) and Nolan Smith (1st) are rising after raucous showings at the Combine, though I'm really not a fan of Van Ness; he has the motor but not the first step. Myles Murphy (1st) is my favorite. The second round features lots of starting-caliber players in Will McDonald IV (2nd), Felix Anudike-Uzomah (2nd), BJ Ojulari (2nd), Tuli Tuipulotu (2nd), Andre Carter II (2nd/3rd), Nick Herbig (2nd/3rd), and Isaiah Foskey (2nd/3rd). Then, there are flawed possible starters in the 3rd/4th neighborhood and some projcetable prospects later. Consider Derick Hall (3rd), Isaiah McGuire (3rd/4th), Keion White (2nd/3rd), K.J. Henry (3rd/4th), Mike Morris (3rd/4th), Byron Young (3rd/4th), Yasir Abdullah (4th/5th), Colby Wooden (4th/5th), Viliami Fehoko (4th/5th), Zach Harrison (3rd/4th), and Jose Ramirez (4th/5th).
Prediction: I'd buy Davenport's ceiling, especiall if he can be had on a one- or two-year deal, but Poles stays away from his horrible injury history. Poles instead opts for Okoronkwo or Ebukam on a modest deal paying something like $15M total over two years. Poles definitely drafts Anderson or Wilson if he's there. Assuming they're both gone, Poles instead drafts his favorite among Van Ness, Smith, and Murphy at #9. Poles then doubles up, grabbing one of the lower-ceiling guys in the late 2nd or early 3rd. I'll guess Anudike-Uzomah or White. Thankfully there's a ton of depth in this DE class.
3. RT
Why?: The Bears are revamping their offensive line. They tried the stopgap approach at RT in 2022; it didn't work.
Free Agent Options: There are three plug-and-play starting options. Hallelujah! Mike McGlincy, Jawaan Taylor, and Kaleb McGary all figure to get something like $70M over four years. So it goes. Isaiah Wynn, Jermaine Eluemunor (who is too big at 345 lbs.), Kelvin Beachum, and Cameron Fleming would be this year's stopgap options. Orlando Brown is both a poor scheme fit and wants to play LT. No thanks.
Draft Options: There are plenty of options here, both early and in the middle. Paris Johnson Jr. (1st) looks like a LT, but Peter Skoronski (1st), Anton Harrison (1st), and Broderick Jones (1st) could all move to RT or even guard. Dawand Jones (2nd), Matthew Bergeron (2nd/3rd), Darnell Wright (2nd/3rd), Jaelyn Duncan (3rd), Cody Mauch (2nd/3rd), and Blake Freeland (3rd/4th) are depth options.
Prediction: Poles can't afford to need a RT in the draft. So, he goes big for Chicago-area native McGlincy for $72M over four years. I'd place the odds of the Bears signing one of these three RTs at approximately 99%. This is the surest bet of free agency.
4. C
Why?: I began this offseason assuming that Poles would grab a premium veteran to give Fields an experienced center. But now I think he'll push for a draftee and roll with something less idyllic at center, instead filling in RT and LG via free agency. Still, I'd put C ahead of LG in terms of importance.
Free Agent Options: Ethan Pocic looks like the top of the class, though he was sandwiched between star guards in Cleveland. Garrett Bradbury finally emerged as a former top pick. Bradley Bozeman and Connor McGovern would be solid starters, with McGovern prferable.
Draft Options: There are three very similar Big Ten centers in this class: Luke Wypler (2nd/3rd), Joe Tippmann (2nd/3rd), and John Michael Schmitz (2nd/3rd).
Prediction: If Schmitz is on the board late in the 2nd, Schimtz will be the new center.
5. LG
Why?: Unfortunately, Cody Whitehair looked washed and continued to get injured last year. He's likely a cap casualty. Larry Borom or Alex Leatherwood could kick inside, but that would knock down the RT depth, too.
Free Agent Options: There are a few starting options available, though no true top guard. I'm partial to Philadelphia's Isaac Seumalo, Tennessee's Nate Davis, and Baltimore's Ben Powers. Davis could be the right fit of production and contract requirement. Dalton Risner is likely a starting option, too. Will Hernandez and Daniel Brunskill look a lot like Lucas Patrick.
Draft Options: The draft is a bad fit for the Bears here. Peter Skoronski (1st) might need to kick inside given his 32-inch arms, something that would give the Bears time to see if he can eventually play T at the NFL level. But Skoronski has never played inside before. Florida's O'Cyrus Torrence (2nd) is a dreadful fit and will not be drafted by Poles. TCU's Steve Avila (2nd) is also huge, but he'd be a great fit if he makes it to the late 2nd. USC's Andrew Vorhees (4th/5th) sadly tore his ACL at the Combine, but he'd be a great piece for 2024 onward. Notre Dame's Jarrett Patterson (4th/5th) could conceivably fit as a mediocre starter
Prediction: This is a spot for a free agent. I like Davis a lot and think that Davis is the pick for $27M over three years.
6. DT (1 technique)
Why?: The depth chart is empty. Pretty easy to understand. But this isn't a premium spot.
Free Agent Options: There are no stars in free agency, but three solid options: Dalvin Tomlinson Sheldon Rankins, and A'Shawn Robinson are all attractive to me. There's also Andrew Billings and Fletcher Cox, though Cox is unlikely to leave Philadelphia and might be washed at 33. None of Tomlinson, Rankins, or Robinson would fundamentally change the course of the franchise, but all three would be attractive choices.
Draft Options: There are five attractive choices here. Michigan's Mazi Smith (2nd) probably won't make the late 2nd and might be too big. Baylor's Siaki Ika (2nd) is a nose, not a 1 tech. He'll go elsewhere. But the next three would all work. I'm a big fan of Wisconsin's Keeanu Benton (2nd/3rd), who figures to bring some pass rush ability too, as well as Texas's Keondre Coburn (4th/5th) and Western Kentucky's Brodric Martin (4th/5th), a true large ball of clay.
Prediction: I'd love to see Poles grab a starter here, but we haven't heard a peep yet. Let's guess that Poles waits out the market and manages to nab Robinson for $16M over two years. I'm a much bigger fan of Tomlinson, for what it's worth.
7. LB
Why?: The Bears have Jack Sanborn. That's about it.
Free Agent Options: There are so many. Want an old former star who is still very good? There's Bobby Wagner and Lavonte David. Want a plus young starter? There's T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds, and David Long. Want a younger solid starter who doesn't figure to reach $15M per year? There's Bobby Okereke, Germaine Pratt, and Drue Tranquill. Want a solid starter who won't break the bank? There's Alex Singleton, Kyzir White, Azeez Al-Shaair, and Denzel Perryman. How about a constantly injured stud? There's Leighton Vander Esch. So many guys.
Draft Options: Man, I love Drew Sanders (1st/2nd). There are numerous other options including Daiyan Henley (2nd), Jack Campbell (2nd), Trenton Simpson (2nd/3rd), Dorian Williams (3rd/4th), DeMarvion Overshown (3rd/4th), Ivan Pace Jr. (3rd/4th), Noah Sewell (3rd/4th), Owen Pappoe (4th), and Henry To'oTo'o (4th/5th). Campbell is the best of that bunch with the others being either a little slight (Overshown) or a little slow (Sewell).
Prediction: The Bears will both sign one linebacker and draft another. I'd love to see the club pony up for Edmunds or Edwards (I want Edmunds over Roquan Smith back in 2018). Edwards became a star after going undrafted out of Wisconsin, so perhaps his salary stays a bit lower. But if I'm choosing between $15M options, I want Edmunds with his crazy athleticism. But not Poles. Poles will reunite Okereke with Eberflus on a four-year, $60M deal, something that seems way too high to me. After splurging on Okereke, he's going to wait to draft his LB, likely Williams or Pace. If I was in charge and Sanders made it to #53, I'd draft him instantly.
8. CB
Why?: We've shifted from "necessity" to "luxury" here. Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are both former 2nd round picks and will start, but Kindle Vildor is overmatched when starting. Another outside corner that permits Gordon to stay in the slot would be ideal.
Free Agent Options: There are a ton of free agents here. Jamel Dean, James Bradberry, and Jonathan Jones are the top of the market. There are a few other quality options like Emmanuel Moseley, Cameron Sutton, Rock Ya-Sin, Marcus Peters, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Tavierre Thomas. And then there's the top choice, albeit a guy who should get a one-year deal and may become a pumpkin soon in his mid-30s: Patrick Peterson.
Draft Options: There are lots of options in free agency. There are an outrageous amount of options in the draft. The top three: Illinois's Devon Witherspoon (1st), Oregon's Christian Gonzalez (1st), and Penn State's Joey Porter Jr. (1st). The Day Two options range from big, Cover 2 fits like Maryland's Deonte Banks (1st/2nd), South Carolina's Cam Smith (2nd), Miami's Tyrique Stevenson (2nd - I really like Stevenson), Alabama's Eli Ricks (2nd/3rd), Kansas State's Julis Brents (2nd/3rd), Georgia's Kelee Ringo (2nd/3rd), South Carolina's Darius Rush (3rd), and Texas A&M's Jaylon Jones (3rd/4th). Undersized options who likely don't work in the Bears' defense include Mississippi State's Emmanuel Forbes (2nd), Syracuse's Garrett Williams (2nd/3rd), TCU's Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (2nd/3rd), and Utah's Clark Phillips III (3rd). I like some of the Big Ten options who figure to make it to the draft's final day: Maryland's Jakorian Bennett (4th), Illinois's Jartavius Martin (4th), Michigan's DJ Turner (4th), and Iowa's Riley Moss (4th/5th).
Prediction: I fell in love with Moss months ago. So here's guessing that the Bears sit out free agency, instead opting to address CB late by drafting Riley Moss.
9. TE
Why?: Can you name the #2 tight end?
Free Agent Options: Unfortunately, free agency isn't attractive to the Bears. Mike Gesicki can't block but would be a great one-year flyer, Dalton Schultz will get paid as a #1 by some non-Bears team, and then both Hayden Hurst and Austin Hooper will probably get paid likely starting options, pricing them out of the Bears' range. Maybe someone like Cameron Brate has a bit left in the tank.
Draft Options: The Bears absolutely should draft a tight end. They need someone who can play 50% of the snaps and provide insurance for Kmet. The top of the draft has Utah's Dalton Kincaid (1st), Notre Dame's Michael Mayer (1st), Georgia's physial freak Darnell Washington (1st/2nd), and Oregon State's injured Luke Musgrave (2nd). However, my two favorite options are Iowa's Sam LaPorta (3rd/4th) and North Dakota State's Tucker Kraft (3rd/4th). Michigan's Luke Schoonmaker (4th/5th) and Old Dominion's Zack Kuntz (4th/5th) would be acceptable choices.
Prediction: I'm obsessed with LaPorta. I worry that he'll be a high 2nd rounder by late April, but for now, he looks like he'll make it to the 3rd. If that's the case, I'll guess that the Bears draft LaPorta or Kraft in the 3rd round.
I have other favorites, like Tulane RB Tyjae Spears (3rd) and Penn State WR Parker Washington (3rd - for emotional, not scouting, reasons). And obviously, the Bears could decide that the #9 pick should be used on LT Paris Johnson Jr. instead of rolling with Braxton Jones. If that's the case...great! I don't think they need Johnson because Jones looks very good, but it's hard to be upset about grabbing a prototype LT.
Summary
In order to make this easier to read, here's what I see happening:
- Sign 49ers RT Mike McGlinchy for 4/$72M
- Sign Eagles DT Javon Hargrave for 3/$63M
- Sign Colts LB Bobby Okereke for 4/$60M
- Sign Titans LG Nate Davis for 3/$27M
- Sign Rams DT A'Shawn Robinson for 2/$16M
- Sign Texans DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for 2/$15M
The Bears create some additional space for the foregoing by cutting Whitehair and Patrick, though perhaps not until after the draft.
And the draft class:
- #9: Clemson DE Myles Murphy
- #53: Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz
- #61: Kansas State DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
- #64: Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
- #103: Tulane RB Tyjae Spears
- #133: Tulane LB Dorian Williams
- #136: Iowa CB Riley Moss
- #148: Western Kentucky DT Brodric Martin
- #218: Penn State TE Brenton Strange
- #258: Michigan K Jake Moody
One of my most powerful takeaways is that this is a tremendous year to need a DE, and Poles take advantage of this by doubling up on players in that spot. While I'd love to see him trade down again in the 1st round to get into the teens, taking Murphy or Bresee. But this would be a remarkable offseason.
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