Building the Bears: 2023 Mock Offseason (February Update)

Since my initial post on this topic, I've spent a tremendous amount of time digging through this free agent class and the draft class to follow. Most of my thoughts on the Bears' top needs still track well with the initial post linked above, but there are a couple of thoughts that have emerged since that time, as follows:

1. Despite the depth in the DE draft class, the Bears need to find at least one starter there in free agency.
2. Finding at least one and likely two starters at DT in free agency is even more important. The draft class features three attractive 3 technique DTs: Jalen Carter, Bryan Bresee, and Karl Brooks. Unfortunately, Calijah Kancey and Moro Ojomo both likely lack the size that Matt Eberflus covets. The defense doesn't work without a 3 technique, so signing one -- and then hopefully drafting another -- is the only prudent path ahead.
3. The TE class is quite similar to the DT class. Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta, and Darnell Washington are all attractive prospects, but they all figure to come off the board in the first two rounds and only Tucker Kraft looks attractive in the 3rd/4th/5th range. The Bears need another starting-caliber TE to complement Cole Kmet. As such, grabbing a free agent is necessary.
4. RT should be the easiest spot to address in free agency. There are a couple of quality options available for cash who are the right age. Looking at you, Mike McGlinchy and Kaleb McGary.
5. The interior OL spots are trickier. The draft has some quality options with centers Luke Wypler, Joe Tippmann, and John Michael Schmitz standing out as options in Round 2, and I think that Tippmann and Schmitz could play guard for a year or two. Guards are trickier. The Bears like linemen who can move and many of the best guard targets, like O'Cyrus Torrence and Steve Avila, look too big to move well in Chicago's outside-zone scheme. I maintain that bringing in a new starting center is the most important move that the club can make, but I can now see a scenario where they keep Lucas Patrick on the roster through the draft, signing a RT and LG while waiting to see if a new C emerges on draft weekend.
6. The Bears need new blood at LB. While at least one draftee will likely come aboard, they should sign a starting-capable body, even if only to a modest deal.

With the above in mind, here's my free agency track to set up the club for the draft:

1. Sign a 3 technique DT: Javon Hargrave, Dre'mont Jones, or Sheldon Rankins. Jones is younger (26 v. 30), Hargrave is better. Hargrave likely commands $20M per year, but he's worth it. For what is effectively a two-year deal, Hargrave is the centerpiece of the Bears' free agency push on a 3-year, $60M deal. If it's Rankins instead, the need to draft a 3 tech remains at the top of the list.
2. Sign RT Mike McGlinchy or RT Kaleb McGary. I have a slight preference for McGlinchy given his preferred pedigree and longer history of solid production, so let's say he's the one. Contract in the neighborhood of 4 years, $60M.
3. Sign DE Marcus Davenport. Davenport's market could go numerous directions, but I think there's a decent chance he could take a one-year deal coming off of a disastrous platform year. If he signs for something like $12M on a one-year pact, it better be with the Bears. If he commands $100M over five years, well, that's the cost of doing business. The Bears need a huge infusion of talent up front and Davenport is the only DE with a top-level ceiling. If Davenport doesn't sign, then sign a second-tier DE; could be a young guy like Arden Key, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Samson Ebukam, or Charles Omenihu, or an older option like Trey Flowers, Justin Houston, or Melvin Ingram. I'm partial here to Okoronkwo and Omenihu as my hope is that the Bears find their top DE starter in the draft.
4. Sign a one technique DT like Dalvin Tomlinson or A'Shawn Robinson (and then cut Justin Jones). Jones is a 3 tech, but I can see the Bears holding onto him until he's been replaced. Well, now he's been replaced, ideally with Tomlinson for something like $27M over three years. If it's Robinson, a bit less.
5. Sign a LG to a modest deal; consider Nate Davis and Ben Powers. Spending big here on Isaac Seumalo would be lovely, but I think that the Bears will allocate their bigger dollars above. This could get complicated quickly if the guard market takes off, pushing the Bears toward the numerous quality centers in free agency. If Davis can be had for something like $24M over three years, great. If Davis doesn't work, pivot to Ethan Pocic, Garrett Bradbury, Connor McGovern, or Bradley Bozeman on a deal paying $30M over three years.
6. Sign an old LB to a short-term deal; looking at you, Bobby Wagner and Lavonte David. Both players are elite; both are also old. The Bears could use an infusion of skill and leadership alongside Jack Sanborn. If that comes in a productive package without long-term dollars, even better! Younger studs like Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards, or even a more modest acquisition like Bobby Okereke or Germaine Pratt, would also be great. But let's guess that David gets the gig on something like a two-year, $20M deal.
7. Sign a mediocre veteran TE to a short-term deal, like Austin Hooper or Hayden Hurst. These two are interchangeable in my mind. I'd love to see Mike Gesicki with the Bears and he's coming off of a dreadful year that should depress his market value, but Gesicki (i) can't block, and (ii) will still likely command too much money. Let's say it's Hooper for $14M over two years.

If the above comes together, here's the haul:

1. DT Hargrave: $20M AAV
2. RT McGlinchy: $15M AAV
3. DE Davenport: $12M AAV
4. DT Tomlinson: $9M AAV
5. LG Davis: $8M AAV
6. LB David: $10M AAV
7. TE Hooper: $7M AAV

Many of the above deals are designed to bridge the gap for the next two years while this year's and next year's draft classes round into form. They allocate $81M of cap for AAV purposes -- an allocation that will certainly be lower on the 2023 cap -- but the Bears should still have north of $100M of cap space once additional cuts are made anyway (Whitehair, Jones, Patrick, Santos, etc.), so there's plenty of space. So let's get to that draft!

As always, this is completed doing an actual mock draft with PFF's mock draft simulator. I remain heavily partial to the idea of accumulating a bevy of picks by first trading with Houston, then trading down again...but perhaps that's not the way things go and, instead, perhaps the most value is extracted by dealing with Indianapolis. So here goes.

Bears trade #1 to Indianapolis for #4, #35, #79, a 2024 1st, and a 2024 2nd

This seems to be the sweet spot for a deal with the Colts and all but guarantees that QBs go in the first two spots.

After QBs go 1-2, the Cardinals' pick yields the first inflection point of the draft: do they take DE Will Anderson, do they take DT Jalen Carter, or do they trade back to another squad looking for a QB? In this mock, they take Anderson, leaving the Bears to decide whether to take Carter or trade back again. I adore the extra picks, so it should be an easy choice for me. But it's not. Carter is such a good prospect, albeit one who failed to take over the game against Ohio State. There are three compelling options for me:

1. Draft Carter.
2. Trade #4 to Carolina for #9, #39, #93, and a 2024 3rd.
3. Trade #4 to Washington for #16, #47, and a 2024 1st.

Woof. Man, this one is tough. There's a chance that my favorite options after Carter -- DE Myles Murphy, DE Tyree Wilson, and DT Bryan Bresee -- are all gone by #16. But an extra 1st, especially from a floundering franchise, is such an attractive proposition, as is the bevy of picks from Carolina. At this point, my thinking is as follows: if Carter is there at #4, I think that the Bears should take him. If he's not? Trade back. I'm just to squeamish to avoid picking up the extra selections.

Bears trade #4 to Carolina for #9, #39, #93, and a 2024 3rd

#9: Bears select Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson

Despite numerous opportunities to trade down yet again, Wilson is a centerpiece acquisition.

Bears trade #35 and #103 to Detroit for #48 and #55

I want the Bears to get Schmitz or Wypler, yet #35 feels a little early for such a pick. Thus, akin to trading back for Whitehair half a decade ago, it seems that a center can be acquired a bit later.

Bears trade #39 to Atlanta for #44, #110, and #161

I nearly pulled the trigger on a number of DEs, but there were half a dozen quality options on the board. Atlanta wanted to come up for Stanford QB Tanner McKee and I was happy to oblige despite the mediocre value.

#44: Bears select Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz

This may be a hair early for Schmitz, but no matter. He's a centerpiece addition up front.

#48: Bears select Army DE Andre Carter II

There are still half a dozen quality DEs on the board at this point, but Carter has the ceiling to be a 1st rounder. He's too tempting to forego.

#54: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks

Brooks is a real favorite of mine and has the look of a top-tier 3 tech...just not right away, especially not after spending his college career at DE. He's going to need some time, but with Hargrave in place, Brooks has a development runway.

#55: Bears select LSU WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte may be too risky for the Poles-Eberflus regime, but the talent is there. For a receiving corps in need of a jolt, Boutte would certainly qualify.

#64: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta

I was ready to take an OT here despite a lack of need, but then five came off the board between picks 56 and 64. So, change of plans. Thankfully, LaPorta made it to the 3rd round and yielded an easy choice.

#79: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton

Thus completes the defensive line overhaul. Man, that group looks so much better.

#93: Bears select Texas A&M RB Devon Achane

Achane is a wonderful complementary gadget piece. Plus speed and elite quickness. Can he tote the rock 20 times a game? Probably not, but he can impact games in a huge way.

#110: Bears select Texas LB DeMarvion Overshown

Overshown doesn't look like a star, but he does look like a plug-and-play 'backer who can run.

#134: Bears select Stanford WR Michael Wilson

Wilson is a mess of a prospect at this stage in his development, but he's got a plus ceiling. And given the receiver room that the Bears have in place, they can afford to wait for him to come along.

#137: Bears select Auburn RB Tank Bigsby

Bigsby can't possibly slip this far...right? There are a number of quality backs on the board at this point, but Bigsby is a tremendous complement to Achane.

#150: Bears select Tulane LB Dorian Williams

Williams could be a good fit in the 4th round, so this is really nice value for a player likely to make the roster and contribute early.

Bears trade #161 to New Orleans for #167 and #229

I probably shouldn't have traded back from #161, selecting Maryland CB Jakorian Bennett in that spot instead.

#167: Bears select Texas DT Moro Ojomo

I did make the trade above as I liked the idea of an extra 7th in the defensive backfield, so I slipped down and was delighted to find Ojomo still on the board. He may not ever be a regular, but there's enough athleticism to dream on here.

#220: Bears select Florida S Trey Dean III

A huge frame with special teams ability.

#229: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody

A big leg who is better than Cairo Santos.

QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian

RB: Khalil Herbert, Devon Achane, Tank Bigsby, Trestan Ebner

FB: Khari Blasingame

WR: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Kayshon Boutte, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, Michael Wilson

TE: Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Sam LaPorta, ___________

OT: Braxton Jones, Mike McGlinchy, Alex Leatherwood, Larry Borom

G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis

C: John Michael Schmitz, Doug Kramer

DE: Marcus Davenport, Tyree Wilson, Andre Carter II, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson

DT: Javon Hargrave, Dalvin Tomlinson, Karl Brooks, Keeanu Benton, Moro Ojomo

LB: Jack Sanborn, Lavonte David, DeMarvion Overshown, Dorian Williams, Sterling Weatherford

CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, ____________

S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Trey Dean III

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

That roster yields 25 offensive players, 24 defensive players, and 3 special teamers, leaving one flex roster spot. The CB room remains a bit light, but every other position group except for QB gets a big talent boost. Most importantly, the lines on both sides of the ball get a blitz of new talent. I could see Gipson getting shipped out in a trade for a similarly-situated CB -- non-starter rotation player nearing the end of his rookie deal -- but if this was the roster come September 2023, there would be so much excitement in Bears country. It's a bit jarring to think that the roster could really absorb 15 draftees and 10 free agents (including veterman minimum resignings), but that's where we are.

Finally, the Bears would find themselves with extra picks in 2024 in the 1st (Indianapolis), 2nd (Indianapolis), and 3rd (Carolina) rounds in addition to their full slate of picks. Should they need to go big game hunting for a WR in 2024, the resources are there to make a move.