Building the Bears: 2023 Mock Offseason (One Week from Free Agency)

As was the case a week ago, since my initial post on this topic, I've spent a tremendous amount of time digging through this free agent class and the draft class to follow. Most of my thoughts on the Bears' top needs still track well with the initial post linked above, but there are a couple of thoughts that have emerged since that time. With the Combine now in the rearview mirror and with an unfortunate injury to USC G Andrew Vorhees, here's where things stand:

1. Despite the depth in the DE draft class and lack of impact DEs available in free agency, the Bears need to find at least one rotation DE in free agency.
2. Finding at least one and likely two starters at DT in free agency is even more important. The draft class features three attractive 3 technique DTs: Jalen Carter, Bryan Bresee, and Karl Brooks. Unfortunately, Calijah Kancey and Moro Ojomo both likely lack the size that Matt Eberflus covets. The defense doesn't work without a 3 technique, so signing one -- and then hopefully drafting another -- is the only prudent path ahead.
3. The TE class is quite similar to the DT class. Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta, and Darnell Washington are all attractive prospects, but they all figure to come off the board in the first two rounds and only Tucker Kraft looks attractive in the 3rd/4th/5th range, likely going in the 3rd. The Bears need another starting-caliber TE to complement Cole Kmet. As such, grabbing a free agent TE who can eat some snaps is necessary.
4. RT should be the easiest spot to address in free agency. There are a trio of quality options available for cash who are the right age. Looking at you, Mike McGlinchy, Kaleb McGary, and Jawaan Taylor.
5. The interior OL spots are trickier. Cody Whitehair and Lucas Patrick should both be cut due to cap and production issues. The draft has some quality options with centers Luke Wypler, Joe Tippmann, and John Michael Schmitz standing out as options in Round 2, and I think that Tippmann and Schmitz could play guard for a year or two. Guards are trickier. The Bears like linemen who can move and some of the best guard targets, like O'Cyrus Torrence, look too big to move well in Chicago's outside-zone scheme. Steve Avila might have the quickness to make it work, and I do like his experience at both C and LG while at TCU. I maintain that bringing in a new starting center is the most important move that the club can make, but I can now see a scenario where they keep Lucas Patrick on the roster through the draft, signing a RT and LG while waiting to see if a new C emerges on draft weekend.
6. The Bears need new blood at LB. While at least one draftee will likely come aboard, they should sign a starting-capable body, even if only to a modest deal.

With the above in mind, here's my free agency track to set up the club for the draft:

1. Sign a 3 technique DT: Javon Hargrave, Dre'mont Jones, or Sheldon Rankins. Jones is younger (26 v. 30), Hargrave is better. Hargrave likely commands $20M per year, but he's worth it. For what is effectively a two-year deal, Hargrave is the centerpiece of the Bears' free agency push on a 3-year, $60M deal. If it's Rankins instead, the need to draft a 3 tech remains at the top of the list.
2. Sign RT Mike McGlinchy or RT Kaleb McGary. McGlinchy has the preferred pedigree and longer history of solid production, but McGary has showed a higher ceiling after a star turn in 2022. I'm leaning McGary now. Ah! Contract in the neighborhood of 4 years, $60M.
3. Sign DE Marcus Davenport. Davenport's market could go numerous directions, but I think there's a decent chance he could take a one-year deal coming off of a disastrous platform year. If he signs for something like $12M on a one-year pact, it better be with the Bears. If he commands $100M over five years, well, that's the cost of doing business. The Bears need a huge infusion of talent up front and Davenport is the only DE with a top-level ceiling. If Davenport doesn't sign, then sign a second-tier DE; could be a young guy like Arden Key, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Samson Ebukam, or Charles Omenihu, or an older option like Trey Flowers, Justin Houston, or Melvin Ingram. I'm partial here to Okoronkwo and Omenihu Houston as my hope is that the Bears find their top DE starter in the draft (Omenihu has a domestic violence arrest hanging over his head). I'm not interested in former Chief Frank Clark given his own multiple felony arrests.
4. Sign a one technique DT like Dalvin Tomlinson or A'Shawn Robinson (and then cut Justin Jones). Jones is a 3 tech, but I can see the Bears holding onto him until the other starting DT gig has been filled. Ideally with Tomlinson for something like $27M over three years. If it's Robinson, a bit less, like $15M over two years.
5. Sign a top C like Ethan Pocic, Garrett Bradbury, Connor McGovern, or Bradley Bozeman. Although I like the draft options at center, it's imperative that the Bears have a quality starting C in September, so here's the hope that they grab one of these guys on a deal paying $30M over three years. I've been partial to Pocic for a while, but I'm leaning toward Bradbury now. He's similar to McGary as a one-year wonder, but he's got the pedigree and now the production to match. If a center doesn't work out, sign a LG to a modest deal; consider Nate Davis and Ben Powers. Spending big here on Isaac Seumalo would be lovely, but I think that the Bears will allocate their bigger dollars above. This could get complicated quickly if the guard market takes off, pushing the Bears toward the numerous quality centers in free agency. If Davis can be had for something like $24M over three years, great.
6. Sign a starting LB: either an older LB on a short-term deal like Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, or Eric Kendricks...or, better yet, splurge for a young star in the middle of the defense. Both Wagner and David are elite; both are also old. The Bears could use an infusion of skill and leadership alongside Jack Sanborn. If that comes in a productive package without long-term dollars, great! Younger studs like Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards, or even a more modest acquisition like Bobby Okereke or Germaine Pratt, would also be great. I preferred Edmunds to Roquan Smith in 2018, so here's an opportunity to right that wrong on a big deal with the young 'backer made more palatable given the expected hot market for Okereke: $64M over four years gets Edmunds.
7. Sign a mediocre veteran TE to a short-term deal, like Austin Hooper or Hayden Hurst. These two are interchangeable in my mind. I'd love to see Mike Gesicki with the Bears and he's coming off of a dreadful year that should depress his market value, but Gesicki (i) can't block, and (ii) will still likely command too much money. I think Hooper ends up around $14M over two years...but this is where the Bears save money, instead providing Naperville native Cameron Brate with a soft landing to end his career on a one-year, $3M deal.

If the above comes together, here's the haul:

1. DT Hargrave: $20M AAV
2. LB Edmunds: $16M AAV
3. RT McGary: $15M AAV
4. DE Davenport: $12M AAV
5. C   Bradbury: $10M AAV
6. DT Tomlinson: $9M AAV
7. TE Brate: $3M AAV

Many of the above deals are designed to bridge the gap for the next year or two while this year's and next year's draft classes round into form. Davenport and Brate would be fully off the books by 2024, and Hargrave and Tomlinson would likely have minimal guarantees in 2025, if any. These deals allocate $85M for AAV purposes -- an allocation that will certainly be lower on the 2023 cap -- but the Bears should still have north of $100M of cap space once additional cuts are made anyway (Whitehair, Jones, Patrick, Santos, etc.), so there's plenty of space, even leaving a bit of room for some extensions for the likes of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. Assume that Deandre Houston-Carson, Khari Blasingame, and Patrick Scales come back, too.

With free agency in the books, let's get to that draft! As always, this is completed doing an actual mock draft with PFF's mock draft simulator.

I was formerly excited by the idea of dealing with Indianapolis so that the Bears could still presumably come away with DE Will Anderson or DT Jalen Carter, but Carter's legal issues have pushed me toward two ideal possible outcomes, both of which involve the Bears tumbling down the draft. The #4 pick just isn't as attractive as it used to be.

1. One big trade down to #9 (Carolina), #11 (Tennessee), or even #16 (Washington).
2. A flip with Houston for some modest picks, then a traditional auction for #2 among all of the other QB-needy teams.

The timing complicates matters. A single trade can be accomplished at basically any time, though likely in March. This locks in a draft haul and removes the possibility of something squirrely happening on draft weekend. A double-trade likely means a trade around the start of the new league year on March 15 followed by another deal closer to draft day...unless it's a trade from #1 to #2, then another deal further down the board. That's my preferred methodology at this point. So here goes:

Bears trade #1 to Houston for #2, #65, #73, and a 2024 3rd

I don't think that the Bears can touch a 1st -- this year or later -- in a one-spot move, but it's possible that Houston's #33 overall selection could be on the table. Instead, we track the Trubisky deal with a modest premium reflecting the fact that Houston gets their pick of the litter.

Bears trade #2 and #134 to Carolina for #9, #39, #93, a 2024 1st, and a 2025 1st

This is a good trade, but it's not the dream trade. It doesn't add oodles of draft capital. But in the end, the Bears net two 1sts, a 2nd, and three 3rds for the drop from #1 to #9, plus a nice jump from the late 4th to the late 3rd this year.

There will be an incredible amount of interest in #9 overall with all of the WRs and all of the OTs still on the board. As a result, making another deal might actually prove tough. Thus...

#9: Bears select Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

It's time to fill out the receiving corps to complete the evaluation of Justin Fields. Smith-Njigba could be a #1. Passing on Paris Johnson Jr., Peter Skoronski, and Myles Murphy here was tough.

Bears trade #39 to Seattle for #51 and #83

Reminds me of when the Bears traded down and still got Cody Whitehair back in 2016. That's 83rd pick is likely another starter.

#51: Bears select Kansas State DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah

A day one starter. (Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz went at #50)

#54: Bears select TCU LG Steve Avila

Avila had a mediocre Combine, which could leave him on the board later than expected. I suspect that the Bears would be happy to grab an interior lineman with position flexibility here.

#64: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton

I thought about Andre Carter II here -- I'm still intrigued by him as a prospect -- but he had a truly brutal Combine. His athleticism scores lagged and his 11 reps on the bench are a deal breaker.

Instead, without an appropriate 3 tech on the board, I opted for an emerging 1 tech in Benton.

Bears trade #65 to New York Jets for #74 and #112

The Jets came up for Stanford QB Tanner McKee, enabling the Bears to add a bit more to the arsenal of picks.

#73: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta

In the middle of the 3rd, if LaPorta is on the board, I desperately want the Bears to find a way to get their hands on him.

#74: Bears select Tulane RB Tyjae Spears

This is earlier than I wanted to go for Spears, but I do like him a bit better than Achane and love grabbing his explosion for the offense.

Bears trade #83 to San Francisco for #101 and 2024 3rd

This was a strange spot in the draft. I liked plenty of players but didn't love any. So, I punted the choice to next year's 3rd round, grabbing a compensatory pick 18 spots later for doing so. I like this kind of trade.

#93: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks

I love Brooks. He's a giant ball of clay who projects as a 3 technique, though maybe not for a couple of years. If he hits, hooray! In the meantime, he can play some on the outside, too, while he develops.

#101: Bears select Wake Forest WR A.T. Perry

I didn't expect to take another wideout, but Perry was too enticing to pass up here. He should be a true X as he develops, giving him some time behind Chase Claypool.

#103: Bears select Missouri DE Isaiah McGuire

McGuire looks good. He doesn't look great. I'm not sure how projectable he is, but after taking Dominique Robinson last year, perhaps a more polished, middle-of-the-road rotational DE isn't such a bad thing.

#112: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss

I really like Moss. He was productive at Iowa and has the frame to play in the Eberflus defense. Then, he tested well enough at the Combine to project as a starter in the not-too-distant future given his immense playing experience in college.

#137: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown

Brown followed a rough Senior Bowl with a stellar Combine. That should have him in approximately this neighborhood of the draft, and the Bears would surely love to grab him here.

#150: Bears select Louisville LB Yasir Abdullah

After playing a stand-up hybrid role at Louisville, the Bears can try to groom Abdullah into a more traditional off-ball role, something that should work given his overall athletic profile.

#220: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody

A big leg who is better than Cairo Santos.

QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian

RB: Khalil Herbert, Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, Trestan Ebner

FB: Khari Blasingame

WR: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, A.T. Perry

TE: Cole Kmet, Cameron Brate, Sam LaPorta, ___________

OT: Braxton Jones, Kaleb McGary, Alex Leatherwood, Larry Borom

G: Teven Jenkins, Steve Avila

C: Garrett Bradbury, Doug Kramer

DE: Marcus Davenport, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Isaiah McGuire, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson

DT: Javon Hargrave, Dalvin Tomlinson, Keeanu Benton, Karl Brooks, _____________

LB: Tremaine Edmunds, Jack Sanborn, Yasir Abdullah, Sterling Weatherford, _____________

CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, Riley Moss

S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, DeAndre Houston-Carson, _____________

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

That roster yields 25 offensive players, 24 defensive players, and 3 special teamers, leaving one flex roster spot. The safety room remains a bit light, but every other position group except for QB gets a big talent boost. Most importantly, the lines on both sides of the ball get a blitz of new talent. I could see Gipson getting shipped out in a trade for a similarly-situated CB -- non-starter rotation player nearing the end of his rookie deal -- but if this was the roster come September 2023, there would be so much excitement in Bears country. It's a bit jarring to think that the roster could really absorb 15 draftees and 10 free agents (including veterman minimum resignings), but that's where we are.

Finally, the Bears would find themselves with extra picks in 2024 in the 1st (Carolina), 3rd (Houston), and 3rd again (San Francisco) rounds in addition to their full slate of picks as well as an extra 1st in 2025 (Carolina). Should they need to go big game hunting for a WR/DE/LT in 2024, the resources are there to make a move.