Chicago Bears 2024 Mock Offseason

After the Bears' excruciating loss to the Broncos to kick off the month of October, Matt Eberflus's squad traveled to Washington and obliterated the Commanders on a short week. The Bears were led by an immaculate performance from QB1, Justin Fields.

However, there's no sugarcoating that the Chicago offense continued to look dreadful in the game. A stop unit that figured to be below average anyway in 2023 couldn't afford the barrage of injuries that gutted the secondary in September, and the results have been predictable: the poor defensive line combined with scrubs on the back end has meant easy pickings for opposing offenses.

As fun as Thursday's win was, the Bears appear destined for another long season with only a few wins ahead. The hope here remains that Justin Fields continues to improve -- much as he has done each year thus far -- while key young players like RT Darnell Wright, LT Braxton Jones, WR Tyler Scott, CB Tyrique Stevenson, CB Terrell Smith, DT Gervon Dexter, and DT Zacch Pickens show that they can be reliable contributors in 2024 and beyond.

At this unique moment in time, the Bears find themselves projected to hold both the #1 and #2 overall picks in next year's draft thanks to their March deal with Carolina. While it seems extremely unlikely that the Bears end the season with those top two picks and even less likely that the Bears end up with those two picks in a year where Fields more fully establishes himself as The One, it could happen. I'm going to pretend that the Bears live in that world because hey, it's fun!

So here's a look at how the 2024 offseason could go with an eye on winning in a meaningful way in 2024.

Internal Decisions

The Bears have a few big salary cap decisions looming. The most notable decisions, along with my choice on each player, are as follows:

• S Eddie Jackson: $18.14M cap hit, $5.58M dead cap
• Decision: CUT
• C Cody Whitehair: $13.25M cap hit, $4.104M dead cap
• Decision: KEEP through draft, then CUT if replaced
• DE DeMarcus Walker: $8.667M cap hit, $4.134M dead cap
• Decision: KEEP
• RB Travis Homer: $2.125M cap hit, $0.225M dead cap
• Decision: CUT

The Bears currently have $1.78M in dead money for 2024, so adding in the cuts of Jackson, Whitehair, and Homer, that number grows to $11.689M.

With an adjusted cap of $251.476M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $119.31M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $116.477M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Free Agency

The Bears find themselves with a few glaring holes entering 2024. Thankfully, they line up quite well with the strength of the free agent class.

The most obvious: DE. The defense doesn't work when it's unable to get pressure by the defensive linemen and, well, the 2022 and 2023 defenses have been entirely unable to get pressure with four. So, let's fix that. Here's my preference list for 2024:

1. Josh Allen (Jacksonville)
2. Chase Young (Washington)
3. Montez Sweat (Washington)
4. Brian Burns (Carolina)
5. Rashan Gary (Green Bay)
6. Danielle Hunter (Minnesota)
7. Josh Uche (New England)

The franchise tag figures to take a bite out of that market, but some unexpected players reach free agency every year. We'll see who it is in 2024. The Bears will need to be at the top of the list for all free agents.

After DE, the Bears need to find a new starting S opposite Jaquan Brisker. Eddie Jackson simply can't stay on the field. While he could be brought back on a dramatically reduced contract, it seems more likely that the Poles regime elects to go another way. Again, thankfully, free agency offers great options on the strength of the 2nd round of the 2020 draft:

1. Antoine Winfield Jr. (Tampa Bay)
2. Kyle Dugger (New England)
3. Jeremy Chinn (Carolina)
4. Xavier McKinney (New York Giants)

Finally, we get to the gaping hole in the wide receiver room left by Chase Claypool's, well, whatever that was. The Bears likely don't need to find another star in free agency thanks to the overwhelming presence of D.J. Moore and the relative lack of stars in free agency. Still, they probably need to find another #2/3 before reaching draft day. The options:

1. Darnell Mooney (Chicago)
2. Michael Pittman (Indianapolis)
3. Marquise Brown (Arizona)
4. Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville)
5. Curtis Samuel (Washington)
6. Tee Higgins (Cincinnati)
7. Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati)

I assume that Allen, Sweat, Burns, Gary and Pittman all get slapped with the franchise tag. So, instead, let's say that the Bears ink the following deals:

• DE Chase Young: 5 years, $115M, $52M guaranteed
• S   Antoine Winfield Jr.: 4 years, $62M, $33M guaranteed
• WR Darnell Mooney: 4 years, $54M, 27M guaranteed
• DT Andrew Billings: 3 years, $18M, $8M guaranteed

If Jaylon Johnson enjoys a nice recovery in his return from injury later this year, he could find his way back onto this chart. The longer he stays out, however, the more likely it is that the front office rolls with Tyrique Stevenson and Terrell Smith outside with Kyler Gordon in the slot.

There would surely be other free agent additions beyond these big three, but we're likely talking about depth options at CB, S, and RB.

Draft

The main purpose for this article. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool.

Here. We. Go.

Bears TRADE #1 to Las Vegas for #3, #42, #73, a 2025 1st, and a 2025 2nd

This year's whooper of a deal. This is the Caleb Williams effect. Numerous teams figure to attempt to overwhelm Poles in order to get their hands on Williams, but Las Vegas has a huge leg up here in that their pick enables the Bears to draft their top two non-QBs.

#2: Penn State LT Olu Fashanu

LT is not the Bears' biggest need. Far from it. If this pick was based on need, it would be Florida State DE Jared Verse or Alabama DE Dallas Turner. But that's not what you do at #2. If there's a star LT to pair with your young star QB for the next decade, take him!

#3: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

See above. MHJ is probably the top WR prospect since the A.J. Green/Julio Jones draft and arguably since Calvin Johnson. He is a true generational talent. Pairing Harrison with Moore gives Fields a pair of ace receivers to target while throwing behind a line with true bookend tackles. Even the thought is wild.

Bears Trade #34 to New England for #38 and #100

There are still plenty of strong targets here, and the #100 pick is a possible starter.

#38: UCLA DE Laiatu Latu

This doubles as filling a massive need, but the value is solid. Latu can play right away.

#42: Georgia C Sedrick Van Pran

He's going to show up in just about every mock I do, except for those when he comes off the board in the 1st round, in which case we're looking at you, West Virginia's Zach Frazier. But hopefully Van Pran becomes the key new pivot for Chicago.

#65: Clemson DT Ruke Orhorhoro

I don't love Orhorhoro -- certainly not like I loved Bryan Bresee last year -- but a huge, twitchy Clemson DL here just fits.

#73: Washington WR Jalen McMillan

McMillan doesn't look like he has star potential, but stepping into what would be an absurdly talented WR room, that's OK. He can be solid and continue to develop.

#98: Penn State DE Adisa Isaac

Isaac doesn't appear to have a star future, but he sure is long and twitchy.

#100: Iowa TE Luke Lachey

When Iowa TEs come available, just take them.

#128: North Carolina LB Cedric Gray

I didn't really want to take a linebacker, but Gray was far too much value here. Plus, Jack Sanborn has disappointed thus far in 2023, so a little extra pressure doesn't hurt.

Bears Trade #129 to Carolina for #150 and #164

I didn't have a clear pick, so I grabbed the extra.

#150: Iowa State T.J. Tampa

6'1", 200 lbs. with lots of athleticism.

#164: Illinois DT Keith Randolph Jr.

Obviously I'd much prefer to grab Jer'Zhan Newton, but that cost will likely prove prohibitive. Not so for Randolph.

Final Roster

New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:

QB (3): Fields, Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): Herbert, Johnson, FREE AGENT, Blasingame

TE (4): Kmet, Tonyan, Lachey, FREE AGENT

WR (6): Moore, Harrison, Mooney, McMillan, Scott, Jones

OT (4): Fashanu, Wright, Jones, Borom

OG (3): Jenkins, Davis, Carter

C   (1): Van Pran

DE (5): Young, Walker, Latu, Isaac, Robinson

DT (5): Billings, Dexter, Pickens, Orhorhoro, Randolph

ILB (1): Edmunds

OLB (4): Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell, Gray

CB (5): Stevenson, Smith, Gordon, Tampa, FREE AGENT

S    (5): Brisker, Winfield, Hicks, Jones, FREE AGENT

ST (3): FREE AGENT, Gill, Scales

The offense actually keeps eight starters the same, but the three additions -- Fashanu, Harrison, and Van Pran -- are all top-50 picks of the impact variety. The defense doesn't add a Day One starter via the draft -- something that I'd otherwise dub unacceptable -- but the additions of Young and Winfield are massively important and the depth added by four defensive line draftees continues the infusion of talent so badly needed for the Bears.

The biggest decision facing the Bears? Whether Braxton Jones is a true franchise LT in the making or not. If he isn't, Fashanu has to be the pick. But if he is, it opens up the team to take Jared Verse instead, pairing him with Young to form a fierce pass rushing tandem.

2023 Football Picks and Thoughts

I would've preferred to get this written by last week, but a busy life combined with taking my big girls to their first home game at Beaver Stadium prevented that from happening. Alas, as will be made abundantly clear below, I'm owning up to my preseason thoughts. In no particular order, here goes:

College

1. The CFP race seems wide open...and I think that favors the bluest of blue bloods. A ton of top teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, including Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Penn State. This figures to favor other top schools with returning QBs like Michigan, USC, LSU, Florida State, Washington, and Oregon. But more than that, I figure that this favors the teams that have dominated recruiting rankings in recent years. Thus, my picks for the playoff: Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State.
1. This aged very poorly. Way to go, Clemson!
2. Deion Sanders is going to work at Colorado but it's going to take some time. There's no way to churn that much of your roster and enjoy success immediately. They'll surely be humbled in their opener at TCU. And I suspect that 2023 will go very poorly, even if Deion manages to eclipse the 3.5-win over/under in year one.
1. This also aged very poorly. Big yikes! Travis Hunter might be the best football player this century.
3. The B1G East is going to go out with a bang. While I despire the explosion of the B1G, SEC, and ACC, one big benefit is the end of the East-West divisions in the B1G. Absent an all-time upset, Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State will win the B1G and finalize the East's supremacy in winning its 10th of 10 B1G Championship Games this December. What a dumb setup. To be fair, this is only the case because Michigan and Ohio State have both made multiple CFP appearances while Penn State has enjoyed four top-10 finishes in the CFP era. This year appears no different. It's nearly impossible to see any of these three squads losing more than three games this year, and it seems most likely that the schools will only beat each other as they did in 2023. If that proves true, the stakes on October 21 (PSU @ OSU), November 11 (UM @ PSU), and November 25 (OSU @ UM) will be astronomical.
4. I continue to despie that the CFP Committee almost exclusively cares about wins and losses. Michigan's schedule is particularly embarrassing with a non-conference schedule that features East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green. Unfortunately, Michigan's schedule is objectively their best path to the CFP. If they split with OSU and PSU, Michigan is overwhelmingly likely to reach the CFP. I'm thankful that PSU scheduled a traditional rivalry game against West Virginia...but the other two non-conference games being FCS Delaware and UMass really stinks. Kudos to Ohio State for playing Notre Dame this year...bu the Committee has consistently said that this type of game is a bad idea because you might lose. That's stupid. A close loss for OSU against Notre Dame should be worth significantly more than whatever Michigan does against UNLV or PSU does against Delaware.
5. I still think Mel Tucker is a bad coach. I'll never forgive him for what he did to the Bears defense a decade ago. That said, Michigan State could win four games or eight games just as easily. Their schedule is brutal and their talent is modest. MSU is likely behind Maryland in the East so they desperately need to come in ahead of Indiana and Rutgers. Last year's squad went 3-6 in the B1G and all three wins (Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana) were of the one-score variety. It's wild to think that Tucker's group was ranked #11 this time last year. If I was forced to bet, I'd bet on MSU going 5-7 and missing a bowl...yet I'm still terrified of Penn State's visit to Ford Field on Black Friday thanks to years of sorcery from Mark Dantonio.
6. Michigan's schedule is difficult to fathom. This deserves another note. It's eminently possible that Michigan won't face a team that ends the year with a winning record until mid-November. Michigan might be the best team in the country this year...but we won't find out for a couple of months. Here are the over/unders for their first nine opponents with each squad's preseason SP+ ranking among 133 FBS teams:
1. East Carolina: 5.5 (92nd)
2. UNLV: 5.5 (104th)
3. Bowling Green: 4.5 (119th)
4. Rutgers: 4.5 (83rd)
5. Nebraska: 6.5 (49th)
6. Minnesota: 7 (35th)
7. Indiana: 3.5 (81st)
8. Michigan State: 5 (57th)
9. Purdue: 5 (60th)
7. I'm extremely hopeful for Penn State in 2023. QB Drew Allar has to carry the load for Nittany to enjoy a special season, but even if Allar underwhelms (he sure didn't on Saturday), the Penn State roster is incredibly deep. RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen is as good of a tandem as exists nationally. The offensive line features experience and star power, particularly in LT Olu Fashanu. The defensive line should compete with everyone on the schedule...except for Michigan. The DL remains undersized and, thus, a terrible matchup for Michigan's beefy line. The LBs and DBs can truly play with anyone. If offseason weight gains for DTs Hakeem Beamon and Zane Durant prove legitimate and enable them to stand up against plus rushing attacks, the sky is the limit for Penn State. Thankfully, the schedule offers the opportunity to both ease into the season's toughest games and avoid a murderer's row in October as has been the case in numerous recent years. Nevertheless, the most likely outcome is a very good Penn State team that might even host a first-round playoff game in a 12-team format once again misses out on the final four, in part due to marginal costs associated with their subpar kicking game.
8. Ohio State's talent level will ultimately be too much. It's easy to forget that OSU was an indoor field goal away from winning the championship in 2022. They went toe to toe with an absolutely loaded Georgia team. They need to replace CJ Stroud, but between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown, the Buckeyes are choosing between elite prospects. OSU might struggle at OT for a few games, but by the time they host Penn State and especially when they travel to Ann Arbor, they'll be clicking.
9. B1G Picks. I didn't check individual schedules to confirm that the numbers add up, so don't take this to the bank.
1. East
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. Michigan (11-1)
3. Penn State (10-2)
4. Maryland (7-5)
5. Michigan State (5-7)
6. Rutgers (5-7)
7. Indiana (3-9)
2. West
1. Wisconsin (9-3)
2. Iowa (9-3)
3. Minnesota (7-5)
4. Nebraska (6-6)
5. Illinois (5-7)
6. Purdue (3-9)
7. Northwestern (3-9)

NFL

1. The Detroit Lions should run away with the NFC North. It felt weird to type that. The Lions are absolutely loaded compared to their competition. Their offensive line is the class of the North, especially the tackles. Their defensive front is solid and extremely deep, led by a budding star in Aidan Hutchinson. The back seven looks solid. Even though I think drafting Jack Campbell at 18th overall was a wild reach, I'm a big fan of Campbell the player and expect him to produce immediately. If this was any team other than the Lions, I'd peg them for 12 wins. But it's the Lions. They'll have to actually win the division before anyone can pick them to do so.
1. I still think the Lions blew it by not finding a way to get a QB this year when they had a top-10 pick and another top-20 pick. They're going to find it exceptionally difficult to land a franchise QB in the coming years if Goff isn't the guy. And I don't think Goff is the guy. He played well last year behind a superb line with a strong rushing attack. Marrying yourself to a system QB at $50M/year is a recipe for disappointment.
2. The Packers look as wobbly as they have in my conscious lifetime, yet I still think they win the North. Perhaps I just hate myself. But I'm fully prepared for Jordan Love to throw for 4,000 yards en route to a 9-8 record that wins the division. Their front seven scares me.
3. The Vikings look mediocre but not bad. They're destined for more time in purgatory.
4. The Bears are ready to make a leap but not ready to contend. For some reason, many folks don't seem to understand the depth of the 2022 tank. The Bears gave dozens of starts to players who aren't starters or even second stringers for other clubs in 2023: Nick Morrow, Sam Mustipher, Al-Qadin Muhammad, Joe Thomas, Robert Quinn, Michael Schofield, DeAndre Houston-Carson, and Armon Watts all started at least four games in 2022 yet aren't listed in anyone's two deep. As for this year's squad, the camp injury to Teven Jenkins is a devastating blow as it results in the reinsertion of the dreadful Lucas Patrick into the starting lineup. Even with Patrick in the lineup, the offense has the tools to be a top-half unit this year and, even if Justin Fields doesn't improve at all, the sheer value of adding DJ Moore, Darnell Wright, Chase Claypool, Nate Davis, and Robert Tonyan to the rotation should yield a significantly more explosive offense. Unfortunately, the defense remains one offseason away. The back seven should be great and could be a top-5 unit in the league, but the front four looks below average at best and potentially very bad if a few things go wrong. In this era of football, a strong back seven is a huge boon; the secondary of Brisker-Johnson-Stevenson-Jackson-Gordon is young and explosive while the Edmunds-Edwards linebacking combination can ran, tackle, and range. The defensive line features four starters acquired via free agency, a testament to the impact of last year's tank. Whiffing on Javon Hargrave, Dre'Mont Jones, Dalvin Tomlinson, and even Sheldon Rankins and David Onyemata put the Bears in a bad spot. Justin Jones and Andrew Billings wouldn't start for contenders, nor would rookies Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens. The story is nearly identical on the edge with Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker both fringe starters who figure to play starter-level reps. Dominique Robinson and Rasheem Green offer below-average bodies behind them. Add it all up and the Bears figure to feature a bottom-5 defensive line. Combined with the back seven, that's a recipe for competence, not success.
5. So, my NFC North pick:
1. Packers (9-8)
2. Lions (9-8)
3. Vikings (8-9)
4. Bears (6-11)
6. With a good offeason next winter, the Bears are well positioned to battle the Lions for supremacy in the North for the next few years. That would be very fun and far preferable to the Packers and Vikings continuing to dominate the division as they have for the last 17 years. Since the Bears lost the Super Bowl in February 2007, Chicago has made three playoff appearances in 16 years, winning just one playoff game (against a Seattle team with a losing record). Not to be outdone, Detroit has made only three playoff appearances in the 23 seasons this century and hasn't won a playoff game since 1991. It's about darn time.

Bears Thoughts in Advance of Day Two of the 2023 NFL Draft

I'm pleased with what the Bears did in the first round. But as with anything in life, there's more to it than that. So here goes:

1. Admittedly, I hoped that the Bears would acquire significantly more draft capital if they traded down from #9, but to be fair, I didn't envision the trade only sliding back one spot. An extra 2024 4th from a Super Bowl contender is technically something.
2. Not drafting Jalen Carter makes plenty of sense at this point. I'm sure that we'll hear in the coming years that the Bears took Carter off of their board entirely, hence the smokescreens in recent days that Carter would be the pick at #9 if he made it.
3. I'm happy that Peter Skoronski wasn't the pick. He was a great college player, but the value proposition for a G simply isn't there in the top-10.
4. Darnell Wright is a premium athlete at a premium spot that fills a massive need. That's good. It's not a perfect outcome, but it's very good.
5. Carter-Wright-Skoronski will be inextricably linked when fans evaluate this Bears draft class. Carter was the one chance for a plug-and-play 3 tech DT. With him off to Philly, the Bears defense has a low ceiling in 2023. Skoronski was the can't miss local kid. But the Bears went with Wright, eschewing those two. We'll see how it looks when they approach free agency near the end of the decade.

With the first round all wrapped up, I ran a Day Two mock draft for the Bears today. This draft was run with Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. All accepted trades were reviewed for reasonableness.

To say that this represents a best-case scenario understates just how ideal this outcome would be.

Here goes:

Bears trade #53 to Tampa Bay for #81, #82, and #196
All of my favorite DEs and my top two Cs were gone, so...trade down!

#61: Bears select Auburn DE Derick Hall
Hall isn't a prototype, but he possesses plenty of the necessary characteristics to be a plus starter in the future and a day one contributor. That'll work.

Bears trade #64 to Houston for #65, #259, and a 2024 5th

#65: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
I love so many of the players available in this range. But Dexter is the perfect combination of fit and roster need. A starting-caliber DT is absolutely essential for this roster and the depth options in the draft won't likely get the job done. I think that Dexter can be at least a serviceable 3 tech to start his career.

#81: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton
There's no way Benton will last this long...but if he does, wow! I had a very difficult time choosing between Dexter and Benton, so getting both really changes the feel of this class.

#82: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
LaPorta could be a mid-2nd or he could last until the end of day two. This would be a wonderful spot for the Bears to add my favorite TE.

#103: Bears select Ohio State DE Zach Harrison
Harrison never emerged as the star many expected him to be at Ohio State, but there's plenty to work with here.

#133: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown
If this pick comes down to Brown v. Tulane's Tyjae Spears, the Bears will be very happy with the outcome. I went with Brown.

#136: Bears select Purdue CB Corey Trice Jr.
I like Trice and he's a perfect addition to the roster at this spot. I don't think he's necessarily a starter from the get-go, but he has good tape and a stellar Combine. Extreme length plays well in this defense.

#148: Bears select Purdue WR Charlie Jones
This is a good spot for a receiver given the construction of the Bears roster. Jones is my favorite target. He's incredibly quick, plenty fast, and was insanely productive despite his slight frame. He's a security blanket in the making.

#196: Bears select Penn State C Juice Scruggs
Incredible value here. Scruggs and Doug Kramer might leave the Bears a little light at C, but if the club thinks he can start, this would be idyllic timing.

#218: Bears select Duke LB Shaka Heyward
Heyward should be able to make the roster and contribute on special teams. That's the right target here.

#258: Bears select Penn State TE Brenton Strange
Strange is extremely polarizing in draft circles. I loved watching him at Penn State, but never thought he had much of an NFL future. But at 258? Sure!

#259: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Fulfilling the prophecy that I created.

If the Bears completed the simulated draft above, they'd enter 2023 with the following roster, assuming cuts of Jones, Whitehair, and Lucas Patrick:

QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
RB: Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, Chase Brown, Travis Homer
FB: Khari Blasingame
WR: DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Charlie Jones, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, Sam LaPorta, Brenton Strange
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Alex Leatherwood
G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Larry Borom
C: Juice Scruggs, Doug Kramer

DE: DeMarcus Walker, Derick Hall, Zach Harrison, Rasheem Green, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson
DT: Gervon Dexter, Keeanu Benton, Andrew Billings, Donovan Jeter
ILB: Tremaine Edmunds
OLB: T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Dylan Cole, Shaka Heyward
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Corey Trice Jr., Josh Blackwell
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Jaylon Jones, Elijah Hicks

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales 

Final Chicago Bears Pre-Draft Thoughts and First Round Prediction

This draft will always be remembered as the one where the Bears -- both current and past -- tanked their way to the #1 overall pick (thanks Lovie!)...which GM Ryan Poles subsequently dealt in a masterful deal for a massive haul of picks and new #1 WR D.J. Moore. How Poles uses the picks will determine the future of the franchise even more than how well Moore meshes with QB Justin Fields.

With the draft set to kick off in a few hours, here are my final thoughts about the Bears' approach this weekend along with one final mock draft.

1. Missing out on a 3 technique DT in free agency really stings. Georgia DT Jalen Carter is the only plug-and-play option at that spot in this draft. His off-the-field concerns are significant; at this point, I suspect that he's either atop the Bears' draft board or off of it entirely. But on the field, he's head-and-shoulders ahead of my other favorite possibilities in Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore (undersized, never played DT), Pitt's Calijah Kancey (undersized, very short arms), and Bowling Green's Karl Brooks (poor competition, played DE, very raw). Signing Javon Hargrave or Dre'Mont Jones would have come with their own risks, but doing so would've opened the door for Poles to wheel and deal more freely tonight. If Carter is on the board at #9, I suspect that he's the pick without another trade.
2. Missing out on RT in free agency is just as perplexing. Not paying Mike McGlinchy at a market-setting rate? Totally fine. Not grabbing someone like Kaleb McGary on a modest, short-term deal? Baffling. Unless Poles really loves Larry Borom or Alex Leatherwood -- and that's doubtful -- he needs to find a starting OT this weekend. Desperation oftentimes yields bad results. I don't like the OT options in this draft after the top three of Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr., Georgia's Broderick Jones, and Tennessee's Darnell Wright. Syracuse's Matthew Bergeron and BYU's Blake Freeland would be fine, projectable options, but neither inspires confidence starting in Week One.
3. I really like the C position in this draft and that's especially true with Wisconsin's Joe Tippmann, a huge, athletic pivot. I like Minnesota's John Michael Schmitz, though I much prefer Tippmann given the age gap between them. If either is there at #53, they'll get strong consideration. There should be good depth options in the third round (Ohio State's Luke Wypler) and later (Penn State's Juice Scruggs).
4. There's salary cap efficiency with drafting new starters at DT and C. Cutting Justin Jones saves $4.9M against the cap and Cody Whitehair's exodus would save $5.8M. The Bears don't need this cap space, but being efficient with the cap is the way that all quality organizations operate. If Jones is the starting 3 tech, this defense will struggle again despite the strength of its back seven.
5. I've long felt that the Bears need to add two starting DEs, but I no longer think that's the case. In fact, drafting only one DE could be sufficient. Poles added depth nicely adding DeMarcus Walker and Rasheem Green to Trevis Gipson and Dominque Robinson. Adding two DEs would be fine with Green and Gipson both heading to free agency, but adding only one DE would be fine.
6. I really like the depth of this draft at CB, but I don't want to see the Bears draft one of the top CBs in the first round. Oregon's Christian Gonzalez and Illinois' Devon Witherspoon are good prospects -- especially Gonzalez -- but the Eberflus defense doesn't prioritze CB play. They need long CBs who don't necessarily need top-end speed. There are options on that front. My favorite? Miami's Tyrique Stevenson.
7. There are a dozen quality RBs in this draft. There's absolutely no reason to take one before Saturday. I like Chase Brown (Illinois), Tyjae Spears (Tulane), Israel Abanikanda (Pitt - a fast riser in my eyes), Tank Bigsby (Auburn), and Devon Achane (Texas A&M). Do NOT draft Bijan Robinson. If the Bears don't draft a RB at all, that's fine! Or Tulsa's Deneric Prince at the end of the 7th round? Great!
8. The TE spot is unbelievably deep. I figure that Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) and Dalton Kincaid (Utah) both go in the first round. The second round options -- Georgia's Darnell Washington, Oregon State's Luke Musgrave, and Iowa's Sam LaPorta -- are incredibly attractive, too. If one is available at 61/64, I'd love to see him join the Bears. Later options like Tucker Kraft (South Dakota State), Luke Schoonmaker (Michigan), Zack Kuntz (Old Dominion), and Brenton Strange (Penn State) are also very attractive. In particular, if Schoonmaker is available in the fourth or fifth round, he'd be a great pick. I really want one of these TEs on the club.
9. Draft Michigan K Jake Moody. Cut Cairo Santos. Santos is fine, but it's time for the Bears to grab a kicker with a big leg. That's Moody. Hopefully in the seventh.

Here's my final, draft day mock draft for the Bears. This draft was run with Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. All accepted trades were reviewed for reasonableness. For example, today's first mock featured three excellent trades for the Bears:

    Trade #1: Bears trade #9 to Tennessee for #11 and #72
    Trade #2: Bears trade #11 to New England for #14 and 2024 2nd
    Trade #3: Bears trade #14 and #72 to Washington for #16 and #47

But it's horribly unrealistic to trade down three times to get from #9 to #16. So that doesn't work.

Here goes:

Bears trade #9 to New York Jets for #15 and #43

#15: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
I was tempted to trade down again with the Giants, sending #15 and #258 to New York for #25 and #57. But no. The desperate need at OT rears its head. And Wright is an ideal fit, so I kept the pick and made it.

#43: Bears select Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey
Kancey is a polarizing prospect. He's very small for a college DT, so he's positively miniscule for an NFL DT. His arms are multiple inches shorter than his nearest comp. But he's unbelievably quick and fast with a power body despite his stature. If he was two inches taller and his arms were two inches longer, he'd be a top-10 pick. At #43, it's worth the risk if he makes it this far.

#53: Bears select Wisconsin C Joe Tippmann
I'm a huge fan of Tippmann and this is a good spot for him. Unfortunately, the best pass rushing DEs were already gone by this point. Gulp.

#61: Bears select USC DE Tuli Tuipulotu
Tuipulotu is my least favorite of the top-100 edge rushers. I don't think he'll be quick enough to succeed as a pass rusher in the NFL. But he was quick enough for a 290-pounder last year and showed up at the Combine at 266. He'd be an intriguing option that should help in run defense. That's enough for me.

#64: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
I love so many of the players available in this range. But Dexter is the perfect combination of fit and roster need. Another starting-caliber DT is absolutely essential for this roster and the depth options in the draft won't likely get the job done.

#103: Bears select Mississippi WR Jonathan Mingo
I did not like this spot in the draft. I'm not a bing Mingo fan, but this is a solid spot for him. I'm surprised that Dante Pettis snagged $152,500 guaranteed from the Bears, but Mingo costs him his roster spot.

#133: Bears select Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker
An easy call. Finally. I love Schoonmaker as a prospect despite his alma mater. He's a perfect addition to the TE room from a pro offense with plenty of athleticism and blocking skill.

#136: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown
If this pick comes down to Brown v. Tulane's Tyjae Spears, the Bears will be very happy with the outcome. I went with Brown.

#168: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss
I like Moss a ton and he's a perfect addition to the roster at this spot. I don't think he's necessarily a starter from the get-go, but he has good tape and a stellar Combine. (I don't like that he ruined the Penn State-Iowa game for me in 2021.)

#218: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks
Brooks played DE in the MAC, so he'd have a way to go before becomming a useful NFL DT. But he's a perfect ball of clay and in this scenario, he'd fit in wonderfully behind Kancey, Dexter, and Andrew Billings as a developmental piece.

#258: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Fulfilling the prophecy that I created.

Chicago Bears Mock Draft - Two Weeks Out

I did a boatload of mock drafts around the time of free agency, but it's been a while. Since then, PFF has done away with their superb draft simulator, so tonight's iteration was prepared using NFL Mock Draft Database.

(Note: proposed trades on NMDD are all over the place. Some offers are laughably low; some are laughably high. I rejected all offers that seemed out of whack.)

Following free agency, the Bears have massive needs on the defensive front along with needs for additional talent on the offensive line, at tight end, and running back. So, without further adieu, here's a look at a pretty tasty draft scenario.

Bears trade #9 to Houston for #12 and #65
After picking a DE at #2, Houston moves up a few spots to jump Tennessee to nab Florida QB Anthony Richardson. The Bears pick up another starter in the swap. Easy call.

Bears trade #12 and a 2024 4th to New York Giants for #25, #57, and a 2024 2nd
Unlike the first trade, this one is much tougher to swallow. With Paris Johnson Jr. still on the board, the Bears have a plug-and-play cornerstone tackle available. But the value here is too good to pass up, so the Bears facilitate the Giants moving up for Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

#25: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
Nice! This would be a stellar outcome for the Bears. Pick up a handful of additional tasty picks and still come away with a day one starter at RT.

#53: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
I remain a huge fan of LaPorta. When there's a quality Iowa TE available, take him, especially if you have a young QB in need of weapons.

#57: Bears select Auburn DE Derick Hall
Hall is my least favorite of the DEs expected to be taken in the 1st or 2nd rounds, but in this mock, there was a huge run on DEs in the mid-2nd. The Bears need a starter at DE, so Hall fits the bill.

#61: Bears select Wisconsin C Joe Tippmann
While many Bears fans lust after Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz, nabbing either Tippmann or Schmitz would be a tremendous step. This greases the skids on a Cody Whitehair release and saves $8M+ against the cap.

Bears trade #64 to Denver for #67 and #108
That's too much value for the Broncos to send. Obviously the Bears have to take such a deal.

#65: Bears select Miami CB Tyrique Stevenson
I'm a huge fan of Stevenson. He's got enough athleticism to play on the outside, kicking Kyler Gordon to the plot on a permanent basis.

Bears trade #67 and #148 to Indianapolis for #79, #106, and a 2024 4th
A trade that acknowledges that the Bears don't see great value in this spot in the draft after such a big run in the late 2nd/early 3rd while bringing up #148 to a much more useful spot.

#79: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks
In a draft lacking impact three technique options, I remain obssessed with Brooks. He might be the player that I most want the Bears to draft, whether at #50 or #150. I don't think he'll last that long given his athletic profile.

#103: Bears select Army DE Andre Carter II
Carter looked like a fringe 1st before the Combine. Now? This might be a little high for him. He has incredible quickness and an amazing frame, but he's mostly a ball of clay at this point.

#106: Bears select Tulane RB Tyjae Spears
Spears exploded onto the scene during Tulane's magical 2022 season. He'd offer speed and explosiveness with pass catching skills. This is a good spot for him.

#108: Bears select Wake Forest WR A.T. Perry
Perry is huge, productive, and plenty athletic. His hands have been inconsistent, but he has the profile of a good starter. This is great value for him.

#133: Bears select Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker
Schoonmaker is one of the big winners of the Combine. His athletic profile proved much more impressive than expected.

#136: Bears select Texas OLB DeMarvion Overshown
Overshown is similar to Carter in that he's remarkably fast with a good frame, but he's not strong enough to play in the NFL right now.

#218: Bears select Coastal Carolina DT Jerrod Clark
The Bears basically must take a flyer at DT at this point in the draft. Clark isn't going to wow anyone, but he should be a playable option given his advanced age and physical profile.

#258: Bears select Pittsburgh OT Carter Warren
This pick was going to be Warren, Eastern Michigan DE Jose Ramirez, who I also adore, or Michigan K Jake Moody. Moody is definitely getting drafted and possibly a round or two earlier. I ultimately settled on Warren, a draftable body with a 2022 injury that will hurt his stock.

The improved depth from this draft has me on cloud nine. This roster is so much better. Here's the depth chart:

QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
RB: Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, Tyjae Spears, Travis Homer
FB: Khari Blasingame
WR: DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, A.T. Perry, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, Robert Tonyan, Luke Schoonmaker
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Larry Borom, Carter Warren
G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Alex Leatherwood
C: Joe Tippmann, Doug Kramer

DE: DeMarcus Walker, Derick Hall, Andre Carter II, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson, Rasheem Green
DT: Justin Jones, Andrew Billings, Karl Brooks, Jerrod Clark
ILB: Tremaine Edmunds
OLB: T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, DeMarvion Overshown, Dylan Cole
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Jaylon Jones, Elijah Hicks

ST: Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

Is this 53-man roster a winner? Probably not in a big way in 2023. But it lays the foundation for (i) a winning team, and (ii) a quality evaluation of Justin Fields. My goodness, that sounds so much better than 2022.

A Bears Blockbuster and Final Free Agency Preview

It's late, so let's get right to it. Bears GM Ryan Poles spent weeks indicating that any team wanting to obtain the #1 overall pick in April's draft well in advance of draft day would have to pay a premium to do so. On Friday afternoon, Poles made good on his word. The haul:

• #9 overall
• #61 overall
• 2024 1st
• 2025 2nd
• WR D.J. Moore

I considered so many trade proposals along the way, many of them with the Panthers. Yet never once did I consider that any team trading for #1 overall would trade away their top receiver, leaving their new prized quarterback to fend for himself without the help of a top receiving option. I was wrong.

Most commentators adore the return that Poles snared for this pick. I'm with them, ultimately deciding that this was a spectacular haul for a few reasons.

But first, the "negatives." That word is in quotes because these aren't true negatives, rather unpleasant components with the trade. First, I don't like that Poles didn't get Carolina's own 2nd round pick in 2023 (#39), instead only getting San Francisco's selection (#61). Second, I expected this trade to feature more picks coming back to the Bears, albeit in the form of a couple of 3rds or 4ths to go along with the more premium picks. Third, Poles made the trade when I was packing up for a weekend away. Not his fault -- just bad timing for me!

Instead, Poles went with fewer, more premium assets. Objectively, I think he made a great choice. So what all did I like about this deal?

Most importantly, Poles extracted the desired premium for making an early trade. Obviously he got Carolina's 1sts in 2023 and 2024; outside of dealing with Houston, that was going to be a given. The other parts of the deal were what was at stake. There's a decent argument to be made that getting #9, #61, a 2024 1st, and a 2025 2nd would've been a fair composite deal. Not a barnburner but fair. But that's not where we are.

Instead, arguably the single most valuable asset that Poles received in the deal is Moore. Is Moore a bonafide #1? I'm not 100% certain, but I think so. The fact that he's (i) in that category, (ii) signed to a significantly under-market deal (three years, $52M remaining), and (iii) in his prime when turning 26 this season makes him a dynamite addition. This year's free agent crop of receivers is dreadful. And while the draft features some intriguing options, none of the possible draftees are in their prime with a trio of 1,100-yard seasons in the NFL under their belt. Moore enables the Bears to more fully evaluate QB Justin Fields, to spend some desperately needed cash (more on that in a moment), and to slot fellow WRs Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool into preferred roles as complementery pieces.

Some folks on Bears Twitter complained that Poles only got one future 1st back in the deal, lamenting that Carolina's 2025 pick didn't come to Chicago. To me, that shows a fundamental misunderstanding of Moore's value and what it would take to acquire a player of his ilk on its own. Simply put, if a team offered a single 2025 1st for D.J. Moore, they wouldn't be in the ballpark. The price for Moore started with a 2023 1st plus additional compensation. This isn't merely hypothetical; reporting indicates that the Packers offered their 1st for Moore during the season and were turned down. So, if Moore is worth north of a 2023 1st, replacing a 2025 1st with Moore would make this deal a massive win. More likely, if a 2025 1st was going to be the centerpiece of a Moore deal, I suspect it would've come along with a 2023 2nd.

So, had the haul for #1 overall instead been the following, would Bears fans have rejoiced?

• #9 overall
• #40 overall
• #61 overall
• 2024 1st
• 2025 1st
• 2025 2nd

Duh. Of course. That kind of haul likely would've been seen as too much. But that's the kind of value that Poles just got, plus he gets to give his third-year quarterback a chance to make the leap as a passer that I believe he'll make. Truly incredible stuff.

This may be the best trade that the Bears have made in my lifetime. And all this because of Lovie Smith. What a hero!

Actually, one more though on the luck that the Bears enjoyed. While there's no true generational QB like Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams at the top of this draft, there are enough franchise-caliber QBs that the Bears could swing this deal. Had the Bears instead had the #1 pick in last year's draft, would there have been any market for this pick? There were some quality players at the top of last year's draft like Aidan Hutchinson, Sauce Gardner, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, but no team traded up to grab a top-10 player with the first trade-up being New Orleans jumping to #11 to draft Chris Olave.

This trade dictates what the 2020s will be for the Bears, but the likelihood of the stars aligning as they did for this to happen? Astronomical.

Building the Bears: 2023 Mock Offseason (One Week from Free Agency)

As was the case a week ago, since my initial post on this topic, I've spent a tremendous amount of time digging through this free agent class and the draft class to follow. Most of my thoughts on the Bears' top needs still track well with the initial post linked above, but there are a couple of thoughts that have emerged since that time. With the Combine now in the rearview mirror and with an unfortunate injury to USC G Andrew Vorhees, here's where things stand:

1. Despite the depth in the DE draft class and lack of impact DEs available in free agency, the Bears need to find at least one rotation DE in free agency.
2. Finding at least one and likely two starters at DT in free agency is even more important. The draft class features three attractive 3 technique DTs: Jalen Carter, Bryan Bresee, and Karl Brooks. Unfortunately, Calijah Kancey and Moro Ojomo both likely lack the size that Matt Eberflus covets. The defense doesn't work without a 3 technique, so signing one -- and then hopefully drafting another -- is the only prudent path ahead.
3. The TE class is quite similar to the DT class. Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta, and Darnell Washington are all attractive prospects, but they all figure to come off the board in the first two rounds and only Tucker Kraft looks attractive in the 3rd/4th/5th range, likely going in the 3rd. The Bears need another starting-caliber TE to complement Cole Kmet. As such, grabbing a free agent TE who can eat some snaps is necessary.
4. RT should be the easiest spot to address in free agency. There are a trio of quality options available for cash who are the right age. Looking at you, Mike McGlinchy, Kaleb McGary, and Jawaan Taylor.
5. The interior OL spots are trickier. Cody Whitehair and Lucas Patrick should both be cut due to cap and production issues. The draft has some quality options with centers Luke Wypler, Joe Tippmann, and John Michael Schmitz standing out as options in Round 2, and I think that Tippmann and Schmitz could play guard for a year or two. Guards are trickier. The Bears like linemen who can move and some of the best guard targets, like O'Cyrus Torrence, look too big to move well in Chicago's outside-zone scheme. Steve Avila might have the quickness to make it work, and I do like his experience at both C and LG while at TCU. I maintain that bringing in a new starting center is the most important move that the club can make, but I can now see a scenario where they keep Lucas Patrick on the roster through the draft, signing a RT and LG while waiting to see if a new C emerges on draft weekend.
6. The Bears need new blood at LB. While at least one draftee will likely come aboard, they should sign a starting-capable body, even if only to a modest deal.

With the above in mind, here's my free agency track to set up the club for the draft:

1. Sign a 3 technique DT: Javon Hargrave, Dre'mont Jones, or Sheldon Rankins. Jones is younger (26 v. 30), Hargrave is better. Hargrave likely commands $20M per year, but he's worth it. For what is effectively a two-year deal, Hargrave is the centerpiece of the Bears' free agency push on a 3-year, $60M deal. If it's Rankins instead, the need to draft a 3 tech remains at the top of the list.
2. Sign RT Mike McGlinchy or RT Kaleb McGary. McGlinchy has the preferred pedigree and longer history of solid production, but McGary has showed a higher ceiling after a star turn in 2022. I'm leaning McGary now. Ah! Contract in the neighborhood of 4 years, $60M.
3. Sign DE Marcus Davenport. Davenport's market could go numerous directions, but I think there's a decent chance he could take a one-year deal coming off of a disastrous platform year. If he signs for something like $12M on a one-year pact, it better be with the Bears. If he commands $100M over five years, well, that's the cost of doing business. The Bears need a huge infusion of talent up front and Davenport is the only DE with a top-level ceiling. If Davenport doesn't sign, then sign a second-tier DE; could be a young guy like Arden Key, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Samson Ebukam, or Charles Omenihu, or an older option like Trey Flowers, Justin Houston, or Melvin Ingram. I'm partial here to Okoronkwo and Omenihu Houston as my hope is that the Bears find their top DE starter in the draft (Omenihu has a domestic violence arrest hanging over his head). I'm not interested in former Chief Frank Clark given his own multiple felony arrests.
4. Sign a one technique DT like Dalvin Tomlinson or A'Shawn Robinson (and then cut Justin Jones). Jones is a 3 tech, but I can see the Bears holding onto him until the other starting DT gig has been filled. Ideally with Tomlinson for something like $27M over three years. If it's Robinson, a bit less, like $15M over two years.
5. Sign a top C like Ethan Pocic, Garrett Bradbury, Connor McGovern, or Bradley Bozeman. Although I like the draft options at center, it's imperative that the Bears have a quality starting C in September, so here's the hope that they grab one of these guys on a deal paying $30M over three years. I've been partial to Pocic for a while, but I'm leaning toward Bradbury now. He's similar to McGary as a one-year wonder, but he's got the pedigree and now the production to match. If a center doesn't work out, sign a LG to a modest deal; consider Nate Davis and Ben Powers. Spending big here on Isaac Seumalo would be lovely, but I think that the Bears will allocate their bigger dollars above. This could get complicated quickly if the guard market takes off, pushing the Bears toward the numerous quality centers in free agency. If Davis can be had for something like $24M over three years, great.
6. Sign a starting LB: either an older LB on a short-term deal like Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, or Eric Kendricks...or, better yet, splurge for a young star in the middle of the defense. Both Wagner and David are elite; both are also old. The Bears could use an infusion of skill and leadership alongside Jack Sanborn. If that comes in a productive package without long-term dollars, great! Younger studs like Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards, or even a more modest acquisition like Bobby Okereke or Germaine Pratt, would also be great. I preferred Edmunds to Roquan Smith in 2018, so here's an opportunity to right that wrong on a big deal with the young 'backer made more palatable given the expected hot market for Okereke: $64M over four years gets Edmunds.
7. Sign a mediocre veteran TE to a short-term deal, like Austin Hooper or Hayden Hurst. These two are interchangeable in my mind. I'd love to see Mike Gesicki with the Bears and he's coming off of a dreadful year that should depress his market value, but Gesicki (i) can't block, and (ii) will still likely command too much money. I think Hooper ends up around $14M over two years...but this is where the Bears save money, instead providing Naperville native Cameron Brate with a soft landing to end his career on a one-year, $3M deal.

If the above comes together, here's the haul:

1. DT Hargrave: $20M AAV
2. LB Edmunds: $16M AAV
3. RT McGary: $15M AAV
4. DE Davenport: $12M AAV
5. C   Bradbury: $10M AAV
6. DT Tomlinson: $9M AAV
7. TE Brate: $3M AAV

Many of the above deals are designed to bridge the gap for the next year or two while this year's and next year's draft classes round into form. Davenport and Brate would be fully off the books by 2024, and Hargrave and Tomlinson would likely have minimal guarantees in 2025, if any. These deals allocate $85M for AAV purposes -- an allocation that will certainly be lower on the 2023 cap -- but the Bears should still have north of $100M of cap space once additional cuts are made anyway (Whitehair, Jones, Patrick, Santos, etc.), so there's plenty of space, even leaving a bit of room for some extensions for the likes of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. Assume that Deandre Houston-Carson, Khari Blasingame, and Patrick Scales come back, too.

With free agency in the books, let's get to that draft! As always, this is completed doing an actual mock draft with PFF's mock draft simulator.

I was formerly excited by the idea of dealing with Indianapolis so that the Bears could still presumably come away with DE Will Anderson or DT Jalen Carter, but Carter's legal issues have pushed me toward two ideal possible outcomes, both of which involve the Bears tumbling down the draft. The #4 pick just isn't as attractive as it used to be.

1. One big trade down to #9 (Carolina), #11 (Tennessee), or even #16 (Washington).
2. A flip with Houston for some modest picks, then a traditional auction for #2 among all of the other QB-needy teams.

The timing complicates matters. A single trade can be accomplished at basically any time, though likely in March. This locks in a draft haul and removes the possibility of something squirrely happening on draft weekend. A double-trade likely means a trade around the start of the new league year on March 15 followed by another deal closer to draft day...unless it's a trade from #1 to #2, then another deal further down the board. That's my preferred methodology at this point. So here goes:

Bears trade #1 to Houston for #2, #65, #73, and a 2024 3rd

I don't think that the Bears can touch a 1st -- this year or later -- in a one-spot move, but it's possible that Houston's #33 overall selection could be on the table. Instead, we track the Trubisky deal with a modest premium reflecting the fact that Houston gets their pick of the litter.

Bears trade #2 and #134 to Carolina for #9, #39, #93, a 2024 1st, and a 2025 1st

This is a good trade, but it's not the dream trade. It doesn't add oodles of draft capital. But in the end, the Bears net two 1sts, a 2nd, and three 3rds for the drop from #1 to #9, plus a nice jump from the late 4th to the late 3rd this year.

There will be an incredible amount of interest in #9 overall with all of the WRs and all of the OTs still on the board. As a result, making another deal might actually prove tough. Thus...

#9: Bears select Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

It's time to fill out the receiving corps to complete the evaluation of Justin Fields. Smith-Njigba could be a #1. Passing on Paris Johnson Jr., Peter Skoronski, and Myles Murphy here was tough.

Bears trade #39 to Seattle for #51 and #83

Reminds me of when the Bears traded down and still got Cody Whitehair back in 2016. That's 83rd pick is likely another starter.

#51: Bears select Kansas State DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah

A day one starter. (Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz went at #50)

#54: Bears select TCU LG Steve Avila

Avila had a mediocre Combine, which could leave him on the board later than expected. I suspect that the Bears would be happy to grab an interior lineman with position flexibility here.

#64: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton

I thought about Andre Carter II here -- I'm still intrigued by him as a prospect -- but he had a truly brutal Combine. His athleticism scores lagged and his 11 reps on the bench are a deal breaker.

Instead, without an appropriate 3 tech on the board, I opted for an emerging 1 tech in Benton.

Bears trade #65 to New York Jets for #74 and #112

The Jets came up for Stanford QB Tanner McKee, enabling the Bears to add a bit more to the arsenal of picks.

#73: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta

In the middle of the 3rd, if LaPorta is on the board, I desperately want the Bears to find a way to get their hands on him.

#74: Bears select Tulane RB Tyjae Spears

This is earlier than I wanted to go for Spears, but I do like him a bit better than Achane and love grabbing his explosion for the offense.

Bears trade #83 to San Francisco for #101 and 2024 3rd

This was a strange spot in the draft. I liked plenty of players but didn't love any. So, I punted the choice to next year's 3rd round, grabbing a compensatory pick 18 spots later for doing so. I like this kind of trade.

#93: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks

I love Brooks. He's a giant ball of clay who projects as a 3 technique, though maybe not for a couple of years. If he hits, hooray! In the meantime, he can play some on the outside, too, while he develops.

#101: Bears select Wake Forest WR A.T. Perry

I didn't expect to take another wideout, but Perry was too enticing to pass up here. He should be a true X as he develops, giving him some time behind Chase Claypool.

#103: Bears select Missouri DE Isaiah McGuire

McGuire looks good. He doesn't look great. I'm not sure how projectable he is, but after taking Dominique Robinson last year, perhaps a more polished, middle-of-the-road rotational DE isn't such a bad thing.

#112: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss

I really like Moss. He was productive at Iowa and has the frame to play in the Eberflus defense. Then, he tested well enough at the Combine to project as a starter in the not-too-distant future given his immense playing experience in college.

#137: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown

Brown followed a rough Senior Bowl with a stellar Combine. That should have him in approximately this neighborhood of the draft, and the Bears would surely love to grab him here.

#150: Bears select Louisville LB Yasir Abdullah

After playing a stand-up hybrid role at Louisville, the Bears can try to groom Abdullah into a more traditional off-ball role, something that should work given his overall athletic profile.

#220: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody

A big leg who is better than Cairo Santos.

QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian

RB: Khalil Herbert, Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, Trestan Ebner

FB: Khari Blasingame

WR: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, A.T. Perry

TE: Cole Kmet, Cameron Brate, Sam LaPorta, ___________

OT: Braxton Jones, Kaleb McGary, Alex Leatherwood, Larry Borom

G: Teven Jenkins, Steve Avila

C: Garrett Bradbury, Doug Kramer

DE: Marcus Davenport, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Isaiah McGuire, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson

DT: Javon Hargrave, Dalvin Tomlinson, Keeanu Benton, Karl Brooks, _____________

LB: Tremaine Edmunds, Jack Sanborn, Yasir Abdullah, Sterling Weatherford, _____________

CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, Riley Moss

S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, DeAndre Houston-Carson, _____________

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

That roster yields 25 offensive players, 24 defensive players, and 3 special teamers, leaving one flex roster spot. The safety room remains a bit light, but every other position group except for QB gets a big talent boost. Most importantly, the lines on both sides of the ball get a blitz of new talent. I could see Gipson getting shipped out in a trade for a similarly-situated CB -- non-starter rotation player nearing the end of his rookie deal -- but if this was the roster come September 2023, there would be so much excitement in Bears country. It's a bit jarring to think that the roster could really absorb 15 draftees and 10 free agents (including veterman minimum resignings), but that's where we are.

Finally, the Bears would find themselves with extra picks in 2024 in the 1st (Carolina), 3rd (Houston), and 3rd again (San Francisco) rounds in addition to their full slate of picks as well as an extra 1st in 2025 (Carolina). Should they need to go big game hunting for a WR/DE/LT in 2024, the resources are there to make a move.