The 2014 MLB Draft is in the books and the Chicago Cubs certainly had an interesting approach. Here is my look at their top ten picks followed by a brief look at intriguing talents after the first ten rounds.
The Cubs total bonus pool for the 2014 draft for picks in rounds 1-10 and for any bonus amount over $100,000 for a pick in rounds 11-40 is $8,352,200. Given that teams may exceed their pool by 5% before incurring the painful loss of future picks, the effective pool is really $8,769,810. With that in mind, here's a look at the picks.
1B/OF/C Kyle Schwarber, Indiana University (Junior)
Draft Spot: 1.4 (#4 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 235 lbs., L/R
Date of Birth: 3/5/93 (age 21 years, 3 months)
Slot Bonus: $4,621,200
Projected Bonus: $3,200,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $1,421,200
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 65 power, 70 discipline, 50 arm, 40 glove, 30 run
Pick Analysis: Schwarber represents a different approach of the Cubs front office under the still relatively new bonus pool regime. While many of us wanted one of the top three picks to fall to the Cubs at #4, Schwarber wasn't on many radars this high up the board. The reason is simple: he's homeless defensively. He'll be given a chance to stick behind the plate and rightly so as his value is exponentially greater as a catcher even if he's below-average defensively. If he can't stay there, I've only seen him as a 1B although Cubs brass supposedly believes that he could hack it in LF.
I just don't buy that. I think they chose Schwarber because they see the MLB marketplace lacking in (1) power, and (2) big-bat 1Bs. Schwarber feels like trade bait come next July and that just feels bizarre. Provided that he signs for at least $1M below slot value - and the front office clearly believes he will based on the rest of the class - Schwarber is a fine selection in terms of fulfilling the goal of acquiring a useful prospect and, clearly more importantly to the front office, ample bonus pool space.
Schwarber seems like a good guy with plenty of bat to have a nice career. I just disagree with the strategy and thus, as the embodiment of said plan, I'm not excited about Schwarber.
RHP Jake Stinnett, University of Maryland (Senior)
Draft Spot: 2.4 (#45 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'4", 205 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 4/25/92 (age 22 years, 1 month)
Slot Bonus: $1,250,400
Projected Bonus: $1,000,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $250,400
Scouting Report: 60 two-seam fastball, 60 four-seam fastball, 40 slider, 30 changeup
Pick Analysis: Stinnett is the rare college senior selected in the first few rounds of the draft. College seniors have become the flavor of choice among teams looking to save on their bonus pools in the latter rounds of the top ten, but Stinnett doesn't fit that mold. After flopping as a third baseman, he revitalized his baseball life by moving to the mound as a closer in 2013, completing his maturation with a shift into the rotation in 2014.
He's got two strong fastballs that should enable him to tread water as he learns a secondary arsenal. His two-seamer sits in the low-90s while his four-seamer is more of a mid-90s offering, although obviously with less movement. The two-seamer is going to be his bread-and-butter pitch, although his excellent tailing movement is generated in a way that may make diving action difficult to come by. His slider is a poor pitch currently with plenty of movement but little command, and his changeup is unusable in its current form. Nonetheless, his arm should have minimal wear-and-tear on it while his frame suggests that he has an excellent chance of holding up under the strains of starting should the pitches come along.
It's hard to love such a raw prospect at #45, but he fit the mold of the organization's draft (save early, spend a bit later) and he's got plenty of upside.
C/OF Mark Zagunis, Virginia Tech University (Junior) (at 1:17 and 2:50)
Draft Spot: 3.4 (#78 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 205 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 2/5/93 (age 21 years, 4 months)
Slot Bonus: $714,900
Projected Bonus: $714,900 (*Zagunis has reportedly signed for $615,000)
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $0 (*$99,900 according to the report)
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 45 power, 60 discipline, 45 arm, 50 glove, 65 run
Pick Analysis: Zagunis is a rare breed: the speedy catcher. Despite a pre-pitch bat wiggle, his swing is very compact and fluid, something that should lead to consistent contact. His hands are plenty quick, also helping the cause. Perhaps more importantly, he had more walks than strikeouts in each of the last two seasons, enabling him to remain productive as a junior even when the power went out (just two home runs after nine as a sophomore).
Still, his value is tied entirely to his ability to catch. If Zagunis moves to the outfield, it will be exceptionally difficult for him to earn an MLB job as his bat just isn't special. However, if he shows sufficient aptitude to remain behind the dish, he could play and move quickly in a Cubs system largely bereft of genuine catching talent after Welington Castillo and possibly the recently promoted Rafael Lopez.
Much like Stinnett, it's hard to love the Zagunis pick given that there were more attractive options on the board, but at this point, the addition of catching talent is a big plus.
LHP Carson Sands, High School (FL)
Draft Spot: 4.4 (#109 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'3", 205 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 3/28/95 (age 19 years, 2 months)
Slot Bonus: $480,600
Projected Bonus: $900,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost:-$419,400
Scouting Report: 50 four-seam fastball, 60 changeup, 45 curveball
Pick Analysis: If the first three picks left Cubs fans scratching their heads, the next four left the prospect hounds salivating. Sands is a bizarre prospect, an exceptionally old high schooler from north Florida. His high-80s fastball is good enough while his mid-70s tumbling changeup is his best offering. He also throws the mid-70s curve that so many lefties employ.
Currently, it's hard to watch him throw right now as his delivery appears to be tough on his shoulder. Hopefully the development staff can get his mechanics ironed out to minimize any damage that may have already been done. Still, 6'3", 200+ lbs. lefties don't grow on trees. This is a strong pick and arguably the second best prospect drafted by the club through four rounds even though Sands needs tons of refinement.
LHP Justin Steele, High School (MS)
Draft Spot: 5.4 (#139 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 180 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 7/11/95 (age 18 years, 11 months)
Slot Bonus: $359,900
Projected Bonus: $500,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$140,100
Scouting Report: 50 fastball, 45 curveball, 35 changeup
Pick Analysis: Steele is a bit tricky as most scouting services had him as a top-100 prospect yet nobody seemed to be particularly surprised that he last into the fifth round. Much like Sands, Steele is a very old high school prospect with a useful fastball, but unlike Sands, Steele's secondary offerings lag behind. He should have enough size to stick as a starter, but it's hard to be sure.
Regardless, Steele is a solid choice here as another left-handed high school lottery ticket. He keeps himself low to the ground throughout his delivery, making himself smaller in the process. As a result, it's possible to see him developing into a LOOGY.
RHP Dylan Cease, High School (GA)
Draft Spot: 6.4 (#169 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 175 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 12/28/95 (age 18 years, 5 months)
Slot Bonus: $269,500
Projected Bonus: $875,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$605,500
Scouting Report: 70 fastball, 30 curveball
Pick Analysis: Cease is probably the most interesting pick in the entire Cubs draft class. First off, he is widely expected to undergo Tommy John surgery shortly after signing, a double-edged sword in that his elbow problems are part of what left him on the board in the sixth round and also may derail his career before it even gets started.
His has a relatively low release point that prevents him from getting much downward action on his fastball, but the pitch shows incredible late life, especially for a teenager, as it explodes through the zone. His curveball lives at the opposite end of the spectrum with Cease showing barely any feel for the offering whatsoever. Nonetheless, legitimate mid-90s exploding heat from a high schooler is worth a flyer any day. If you're going to save money for high upside plays later in the draft, Cease is the right kind of play to make.
RHP James Norwood, St. Louis University (Junior)
Draft Spot: 7.4 (#199 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 175 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 12/24/93 (age 20 years, 5 months)
Slot Bonus: $201,900
Projected Bonus: $500,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$298,100
Scouting Report: 65 fastball, 45 changeup, 45 curveball, 35 slider
Pick Analysis: Norwood might be my favorite pick in the class in terms of value and intrigue. He features a darting two-seam fastball in the lot-to-mid-90s that he locates well, giving him one plus pitch to work with. His secondary pitches are decidedly imperfect and in need of reform. Further, elbow issues during his sophomore year likely led to Norwood's lower draft position.
But he's 20 1/2 after his junior year in college. Norwood is just 15 months older than Carson Sands. It's hard not to love such an advanced arm in a relatively young pitcher. I find Norwood's mechanics to be relatively clean and repeatable. He gets good downward plane on his fastball given a solidly over-the-top delivery and he looks extremely clean throwing from the stretch. He likely has a much higher floor than most seventh-rounders, and I believe that he'll rightly get an extended look as a starter.
LHP Tommy Thorpe, University of Oregon (Junior)
Draft Spot: 8.4 (#229 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 195 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 9/20/92 (age 21 years, 9 months)
Slot Bonus: $161,800
Projected Bonus: $150,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $11,800
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 50 curveball, 40 changeup
Pick Analysis: Thorpe is the first pick about whom it is very difficult to be excited. He works only in the high-80s with very little movement on his fastball, and while his mid-70s curveball offers some hope, his high-70s changeup doesn't add enough to push him into starting territory. His delivery is extremely violent. Taken together, it's hard to see a starter and even a LOOGY without some significant growth. The most disappointing pick.
RHP James Farris, University of Arizona (Senior)
Draft Spot: 9.4 (#259 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'2", 220 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 4/4/92 (age 22 years, 2 months)
Slot Bonus: $151,000
Projected Bonus: $50,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $101,000
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 50 changeup, 35 curveball
Pick Analysis: Farris wasn't drafted to fill a short- or long-term starting need; he was drafted exclusively to serve as organizational depth. The Cubs front office certainly liked that Farris enjoyed considerable success as a collegian, pitching the clinching game of last year's College World Series. There's not much to see here. Farris isn't going to make noise or be exciting.
RHP Ryan Williams, East Carolina University (Senior)
Draft Spot: 10.4 (#289 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'4", 220 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 11/1/91 (age 22 years, 7 months)
Slot Bonus: $141,000
Projected Bonus: $5,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $136,000
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 40 slider
Pick Analysis: This is all about the bonus or lack thereof. Williams will get a chance to pitch his way into a real look, much like Zack Godley has thus far as a professional, but he was drafted for his lack of leverage.
My estimated bonuses yielded $7,894,900 in bonuses for picks from Rounds 1-10. Such bonuses would leave the club with $874,910 of wiggle room to allocate to the over-$100,000 bonus portion for any picks in Rounds 11-40; if we assume that the other bonuses are correct and Zagunis received $100,000 less than expected, this number pushes up to $974,910. The Cubs seem most likely to use some of that space to go after Fresno State righty Jordan Brink (11th round), high school third baseman Kevonte Mitchell (13th), and, in particular, high school switch-hitting outfielder Isiah Gilliam (23rd).
Overall, I'm excited about the pitchers the Cubs nabbed in Rounds 4-7 and Stinnett is intriguing. Zagunis is interesting enough, but he absolutely must stick at catcher. Unfortunately, as the crown jewel of the class, Schwarber just doesn't do it for me. Hopefully he proves far better than expected and he can become a core piece of the future. Until then, the jury is out.
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