For many months, the assumption of most Cubs fans, writers, etc. has been that the club will perform one last (hopefully) fire sale this summer, shipping out veteran talent for lottery tickets to dump into the franchise's huge bucket of already accumulated lottery tickets. Over the past few days, I've shared my belief that, given the state of the rebuild, the maturation of the club's top MLB players and MiLB prospects, and this winter's free agent market, the team will do some selling this summer but follow it with a whole boatload of buying this winter.
A key piece of that strategy has been my belief that, after considering all of the facts and circumstances, the Cubs will extend Jeff Samardzija instead of trading him. But I acknowledge the solid possibility that, feeling no attachment to him, the front office will instead ship Samardzija to a contender this summer. At the request of a few folks, here is a rundown of what some offers for Samardzija might look like following one very important caveat.
Transitive properties sometimes do but often don't work in sports. If the Lions beat the Bears and the Bears beat the Packers then the Lions should beat the Packers, right? Of course not. It works that way in trades too because no two people will assess the value of players identically and because no teams share a genuinely identical financial situation. Thus, figuring that Samardzija will return a much better package to the Cubs than Matt Garza did last summer given that Samardzija is solidly a better pitcher with an extra year of club control at a reasonable cost can get you into trouble. Samardzija will return what the June/July market of 2014 dictates; nothing more, nothing less.
What's For Sale, Exactly?
Jeff Samardzija is a 29-year-old starting pitcher with the innings on his arm of a comparable pitcher in his early-to-mid-20s given his dual-sport status through college and his rearing as a relief pitcher as a professional. This will be important to teams. Samardzija is under contract for $5.345M this year and controllable in 2015 in his third and final arbitration season in which he figures to earn approximately $10M, give or take a bit. Thus, an acquiring team at the midpoint of the 2014 season would acquire 1.5 seasons of Samardzija for approximately $12.7M, a significant bargain relative to the cost of comparable pitchers on the free agent market. Samardzija's Baseball Prospectus injury report is, remarkably, completely empty even though BP tracks day-to-day and spring training injuries even if the player misses no games.
Samardzija was a punch line about the futility of the Cubs drafts as recently as a few years ago, but after a promising turn in the bullpen, he has emerged as a quality starting pitcher. Having won a starting job in 2012, Samardzija has posted above-average strikeout rates (between 8.11 and 9.27 K/9), league-average walk rates (approximately 3.00 BB/9), above-average groundball rates, and put the full package together to post FIPs of 3.55, 3.77, and 2.95. Among qualified starters, his FIP ranked 27th (of 88) in 2012, 47th (of 81) in 2013, and 22nd (of 99) in 2014. While those rankings may appear to only range from average to above-average, they must be considered in the context that the only starters to qualify for pitching awards tend to be the best of the best. With only 81 qualified starters in 2013, Samardzija certainly outpitched the majority of starters. While there is the occasional Danny Salazar who pitches wonderfully over a shorter period of time, many of the non-qualified starters are the Chris Rusins and Carlos Villanuevas of the baseball world. Those guys make lots of starts too.
Who's Buying?
We know that the Cubs are selling Samardzija in this hypothetical, but who is interested in his services? It has to be a team with postseason aspirations, almost certainly in 2014, as Samardzija's value is much higher to a team that can use him to make two playoff runs compared to just one. It also has to be a team who needs a starting pitcher. Whereas most higher-priced veterans dealt at the deadline come along with a significant financial price tag, Samardzija does not, as noted above. Realistically, there's not a team in baseball that can't afford to acquire him.
With the above said, I've broken the MLB teams into categories organized by potential interest level:
I. We're Not Contending in 2014
We lose seven of the potential 29 trading in Houston, Texas, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, the Mets, San Diego, and Arizona. The Mets could be aggressively forward-thinking in making a run at Samardzija to pair with Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Bartolo Colon in 2015, but he doesn't seem to be a great fit given their organizational needs. Texas could tread water until some of the injured starters return, but the odds of Jon Daniels dealing with Jed Hoyer again after his experience the last two summers are extremely low. Let's just assume that these seven are out.
II. We Don't Need a Starting Pitcher (at least not badly enough)
Everyone needs starting pitching all the time. With that said, there are different levels of need. We lose seven more teams on this criteria with Washington, Detroit, the Yankees (unless they decide to be the Yankees - always possible), Anaheim, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Cleveland.
III. The A's and Marlins
The A's don't need Samardzija and the Marlins are loaded with pitching prospects ready to contribute. So neither team needs Samardzija. But that's not the reason they won't be acquiring him: they won't be acquiring him because they just don't make moves like that. They're out.
IV. The Possibilities
These nine teams should have plenty of interest in Samardzija, although for one reason or another, they don't seem quite as likely to make a move for him as the clubs in the next group. With a brief description of my take on their interest level, here are the teams ranked in increasing order of likelihood:
San Francisco: The Giants have only handed starts to Bumgarner, Hudson, Vogelsong, Petit, Lincecum, and Cain this year. They're going to let one or two of those guys rebound instead of making a move. I think.
Cincinnati: The Cubs won't like dealing with a division rival and the Reds have gotten roughly average starting thus far anyway. The most likely arm to get bumped based on production would be Tony Cingrani, and after his breakout 2013, I doubt they're interested in pulling the plug on the young lefty.
Pittsburgh: Their starting has been dreadful, ranking last in MLB in WAR. Yet again, it's difficult to imagine the Cubs dealing with a rival against whom they'd like to compete in the coming years. Pittsburgh has the prospects to swing the deal, but I think their presence in the NL Central kills any trade.
Colorado: The Rockies have a +12 run differential but they're 31-35, 3.5 games back of Atlanta and trending aggressively in the wrong direction. Holding steady for a few weeks could change their plans, but I suspect they'll hold off on buying, prefer to pair Eddie Butler and Jon Gray atop the rotation next year while making their run.
Milwaukee: The Brewers would be a solid match for the Cubs were it not for their presence in the NL Central. Milwaukee lacks high-end prospects, but they'd have enough interest to make a substantial offer nonetheless. I don't know if our front office could stomach facing Samardzija and Garza regularly.
Los Angeles: I don't know where to rank them because they make no sense. Their pitching has been underwhelming, but Kershaw, Ryu, Greinke, Haren, and Beckett are all signed to big deals with Billingsley and Maholm providing the crutch. They don't make sense based on their starters, but they would line up beautifully with the Cubs given their prospects, especially AAA OF Joc Pederson.
Kansas City: The Royals are living in no man's land with Yordano Ventura, James Shields, and Jason Vargas all pitching well and the next two spots being a mess. Jeremy Guthrie might turn it on, but Samardzija would make sense for them. Still, with Shields an impending free agent and after giving up so much to acquire him, it's hard to imagine the tiny-market Royals making another huge splash.
Chicago White Sox: The White Sox would get serious consideration to be atop this list if they didn't play in Chicago. Their rotation features two strong starters in ace Chris Sale and mid-rotation guy Jose Quintana. John Danks and Erik Johnson are holding down spots near the back but there's nothing else. They're 3.5 games back of Detroit and building for the medium-term, a plan Samardzija fits into rather nicely given his age and controllability. They're not in the top tier though because (i) they are the crosstown team, and (ii) their prospects just aren't exciting. At all. Let's say no to the ChiSox.
Baltimore: The Orioles are in a tricky spot: their starters have all been average or worse while they've scored enough to be in the thick of the wild card race. Between Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Kevin Gausman, they've got six starters who can pitch reasonably well. The need and interest are probably both there and they've certainly got the prospects to swing the deal, but I just can't get a good read on the O's and what they're going to do.
V. The Favorites
These four teams jump out to me as the clubs most likely to swing a big deal for Samardzija given the totality of their circumstances:
Minnesota: The Twins have parlayed average offense and average pitching into a 31-33 record that has them hanging around the race this year. Their fiscal conservatism has them well positioned to absorb Samardzija's contract. Their rotation is set up perfectly to add him with Phil Hughes pitching exceptionally, Kyle Gibson and Kevin Correia pitching well, and Ricky Nolasco holding his own. They're sub-replacement after those four. They absolutely have the farm system to grab Samardzija without giving up Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano. They'd make perfect sense if there weren't competitors.
Seattle: Felix is a superstar, Iwakuma is excellent, Roenis Elias is pitching well this year, James Paxton has been good but hurt (currently on the 60-day DL), and the rest of the starters have produced -0.8 WAR. Taijuan Walker should be ready soon, so Samardzija would result in bumping Elias when he settles back down. The Mariners have significantly underperformed their +26 run differential at 34-32, but they're in the thick of the race and they've put all of their eggs into the near-term basket. They don't have a true headliner to offer the Cubs, but they've got enough prospect talent to find a match.
Boston: They may surprise some, but they make oodles of sense to me. After Jon Lester and John Lackey, their rotation has been underwhelming all year. They've got enough depth to survive, but they may need a big piece to make a push. Further, with Lester halfway through his walk year, it gets more and more likely every day that he leaves in free agency, creating an opening at the top of the rotation. Their front office has the savvy to appreciate Samardzija's contract value, the cash to extend him, the prospects to make the deal, and the need to add a big starter. They'd top this list if it wasn't for...
Toronto: We've heard about the Jays as a match for Samardzija for over a year, and it's for one simple reason: they just make the most sense. Their rotation ranks 15th in WAR with Mark Buehrle pitching wonderfully, Drew Hutchison pitching well, Marcus Stroman looking strong, and R.A. Dickey holding his own. The rest of the list is full a floaters: Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan, J.A. Happ, and Liam Hendricks. Only Morrow has a FIP under 4.94...and his ERA of 5.93 reflects tons of walks. He's also on the 60-day DL. The Jays hold a 3.5-game lead in the AL East with an impressive +31 run differential. Alex Anthopolous is GM'ing for his job and he's got the pieces to swing the move.
Pfew! How About Some Trade Packages?
Let's finish the marathon! I'll only look at specific packages from the top four contenders.
I expect the Cubs to be very open minded about what they receive. Many assume that the Cubs will only be interested in receiving pitching or that they must receive pitching for the deal to be adequate. I totally disagree. They just need to maximize value. If the Dodgers offer Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and a projectable low-level arm or two, the Cubs would be nuts to refuse the offer because Pederson plays the outfield and Seager the infield. Why take two red-painted dimes if someone offers you two green-painted quarters? Take the quarters!
Anyway. Here's a handful of examples:
Minnesota: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija and 3B Christian Villanueva to Minnesota for RHP Alex Meyer, LHP Lewis Thorpe, LHP Stephen Gonsalves, and 2B Jorge Polanco
Analysis: As mentioned above, the Twins' excellent minor league system enables them to come up with plenty of creative trade proposals. I've been trying to find deals to clear Villanueva out of the Cubs system given that he's about to get lost; Minnesota is a perfect landing spot with Trevor Plouffe uninspiring and Miguel Sano unlikely to stick at 3B.
Meyer is a huge (6'9", 220 lbs.) righty with a massive fastball and power slider. His changeup is plenty good too. The problem is command, and the track record of pitchers with that kind of body and power stuff isn't exciting. Still, if Meyer clicks, he's going to be really good; he's currently pitching well at AAA, although walks continue to plague him. If Kohl Stewart is on the table, the package can get really interesting very quickly. Thorpe, an Australian 18-year-old, has a long way to go but the pitches to make it as a #2 starter. I touched on Gonsalves yesterday: he's a big lefty who was Brady Aiken's teammate last year and he's got first-round stuff. Finally, Polanco figures to end up as a utility guy instead of as an everyday 2B, but he's got enough bat to make it work. This package probably fits the mold of what folks want to see: one big arm, a couple of projectable arms, and maybe some icing on the cake.
Seattle: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija to Seattle for RHP Victor Sanchez, RHP Edwin Diaz, LHP Luiz Gohara, and C Tyler Marlette
Analysis: This is the "oh crap, we're still far away" trade option. Seattle's near-MLB prospects consist of Taijuan Walker and fluff. They're not moving Walker for Samardzija, so the Cubs will have to stock up on Seattle's considerable lower-level pitching depth.
There's no true headliner to this deal. Sanchez is a massive teen in AA, where he's learning that command is extremely important. Diaz looks like C.J. Edwards with a wiry frame holding big stuff. Gohara is probably the closest thing to a centerpiece, but he turns 18 at the end of July and hasn't passed extended spring training; he's got a long, long way to go despite his 6'3", 210 lbs. frame. Marlette likely profiles as a bat-first fringe starter, though that could be a nice complement to Welington Castillo.
Sanchez and Marlette would be the first to arrive, likely in 2016, with Diaz and Gohara following at least a year later. This option would be tough to stomach.
Boston: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija to Boston for LHP Henry Owens, C Blake Swihart, and LHP Trey Ball
Analysis: This is also more like the deal most Cubs fans are probably hoping for. If the BoSox inexplicably made Xander Bogaerts available, I suspect that Jed Hoyer might break his hand shoving the trade into the fax machine for approval from the commissioner's office. Barring that, this deal brings back a reasonable return. Owens is pitching very well at AA currently, and the 2011 first-round-pick is probably ready for AAA. He features an above-average fastball complemented by a pair of solid secondary pitches. At 6'6", 205 lbs., he certainly has the body to start. His primary drawback is that he profiles more as a middle-of-the-rotation arm. Swihart has climbed the ladder methodically and his power is showing up at AA, although his discipline is lacking. He profiles as a better defender than Marlette and he could wrestle the 2016 catching job away from Castillo. Ball is the wild card, 2013's #7 overall selection. He's a big lefty out of Indiana who turns 20 this month and has a 7.12 ERA in A ball. He's going to be a project, but he's got the ceiling to justify being a key piece in a big trade.
Toronto: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija to Toronto for RHP Aaron Sanchez, LHP Daniel Norris, and OF D.J. Davis
Analysis: With Stroman featuring as a key part of their rotation, the Jays figure to keep him. While it would be possible for them to consummate a deal without including Sanchez, it seems highly unlikely, so Sanchez is included here. Sanchez's prospect star has dimmed significantly in 2014 with a BB/9 of 5.45. He continues to record solid strikeout rates, Toronto just promoted him to AAA, and he's developing the arsenal of a top flight starter. If the command doesn't develop, he's just another arm, but there's still time for the soon-to-be-22-year-old.
Norris is the safe acquisition, ironic given his horrific 2012. He rebounded with a solid year in 2013 in the Midwest League and appears to have worn out his welcome in the Florida State League this year, dominating to the tune of a 1.65 FIP. Norris has a big fastball, an above-average slider, a solid changeup, and a fringe curveball. It's all about the low-to-mid-90s heat though, and he's got the pitches to be a very strong #3 starter.
Davis is the extreme lottery ticket. Almost 20, he has received the rare 80 scouting grade for his speed as well as 50s across the board for his other tools. He's exceptionally raw and likely needs at least a full year at each of A, A+, and AA before plenty of time at AAA too. He could easily flame out - the list of leadoff hitters with a 32% K% in A ball is very short and going 6-for-18 on stolen base attempts is horrendous - and his tools aren't playing well even at his low level. Still, the tools are there and we could be talking about a dynamic player if it all clicks.
Regardless, this deal is driven by Sanchez and Norris, two arms that could hold jobs in the Cubs rotation at some point in 2015.
Conclusion
I still hope that the Cubs extend Samardzija instead of trading him, but if they do, they figure to get a very strong package in return that looks at least something like the packages described above. One possible wrinkle is that the Brewers, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, and Royals may all be eligible for a competitive balance draft pick for 2015, an additional asset that could entice the Cubs. Furthermore, the Cubs could also include some of the "slots" of their international amateur free agent bonus pool in order to extract additional prospects from clubs given that the Cubs cannot spend more than $250,000 on any international amateur free agent for the upcoming July 2nd signing period. Unfortunately, moving their top "slot" is basically impossible as, absent some machinations from other teams, the Cubs could only trade their nearly $2.3M slot to Houston or Miami. However, slots #34 ($458,000), #64 ($309,300), and #94 ($206,700) give the Cubs $974,000 of pool space to trade with ease: any MLB club could acquire those slots. Between their $2,288,700 top slot and the $700,000 base amount, the Cubs would still have $2,988,700 to spend on international amateur bonuses, more than enough money to load up on lower bonus projects.
The Samardzija deal could get really interesting. Or it could be really simple. Or it could not happen at all. Gotta love baseball.
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