In my last entry, I spent time reminding folks that, while money can't buy happiness, it can buy a star-studded starting rotation and it can do so in five months. For a Cubs franchise with big bats littering the prospect landscape but only projectable (and largely injured) starting pitching wild cards, this is welcome news. Having shown that a return to the $100M payroll level could net the 2015 Cubs Jon Lester, James Shields, Seth Smith, and an extended Jeff Samardzija with an excellent bullpen and exciting young, powerful lineup, I now turn to a continued rebuilding strategy that doesn't require the club to sign two of the premier pitching options on the free agent market and one of the top bats (no offense Mr. Smith, but that's more an indictment of the paltry bats than a ringing endorsement of your extreme success hitting against righties).
A few quick facts that should be on the table before this post gets rolling:
Fact #1: Through June 11th, the Cubs starting pitching has produced 6.8 WAR (2nd in MLB) and a 3.33 FIP (also 2nd).
Fact #2: Providing for 36 of the 40-man roster spots in 2015, the Cubs project to spend approximately $93,835,000 on the 40-man roster ($69,785,000), international amateur free agent signing bonuses and salaries ($8,450,000), MLB Rule IV draft signing bonuses ($14,950,000), and dead money for player options ($650,000); this includes $3.1M for Darwin Barney and $2.2M for James Russell, to players who may very well find themselves without jobs next year given declining performance and talent influx. It has been at least a decade since the 25-man Opening Day payroll was less than the $93.835M figure cited above, let alone total organizational player personnel spending.
Fact #3: Total organizational expenditures for the categories stated above during the Ricketts ownership tenure:
2010: $156,485,000
2011: $158,305,000
2012: $138,280,050
2013: $126,991,025
2014: $108,231,344
These figures include penalties incurred for exceeding draft and international bonus pool allotments as well as dead money paid to former players or via contract buyouts. It also includes an increasing estimate for draftees signed after the first 10 rounds as well as an increasing estimate of international amateur free agent bonuses of less than $100,000.
Fact #4: Despite the abject failure of Jose Veras, the Cubs bullpen FIP of 3.51 ranks 11th in MLB.
Fact #5: Jason Hammel is pitching out of his mind. His 2014 numbers versus his previous career bests: ERA (2.81 v. 3.43; his only other year under 4.33), FIP (3.02 v. 3.29; his only other year under 3.70), BB/9 (1.94 v. 2.14; his only other year under 3.10), and HR/9 (0.65 v. 0.69). To say that he is peaking would be a massive understatement. Hammel is a nice pitcher and vaguely reliable - he has had some injury issues in the past - but at 31 years old, it's hard to buy into this improvement particularly given that his batted ball rates are actually a bit worse than his career averages.
Fact #6: Kris Bryant is every bit as good as you've heard he is and even better.
With all of that on the table, here's a look at moves that Cubs fans can hope for in the next eight months or so:
Transaction #1: Cubs Trade SP Jason Hammel to Seattle for SP Victor Sanchez (June/July)
Hammel will be attractive to numerous teams as a cheap, efficient fill-in starter. Interested teams will likely include Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Minnesota, the White Sox, Anaheim, and Boston.
The Seattle rotation has been Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, and lots of blank stares. While the Twins have a similar need, the Mariners have the added desperation factor having put all of their eggs in the 2014 basket. Hammel could be a steadying option for them, bridging the gap as James Paxton and particularly Taijuan Walker work their way into rotation jobs. Sanchez is currently serving up homers for breakfast at AA and he tips the scales over 250 lbs. despite his 6'0" frame. However, 19-year-olds justifiably in AA are extremely rare and he's got the arm to take a shot on him. This return for Hammel might be a bit low, but I'm trying to miss low for the sake of realism.
Transaction #2: Cubs Trade RP Wesley Wright and 3B Christian Villanueva to Anaheim for LHP Ricardo Sanchez and RHP Keynan Middleton (July)
This is a bizarre trade on the surface as there are lots of different things going on. From the Cubs perspective, having both Wesley Wright and James Russell presents a luxury that will be valued more highly elsewhere. While Russell's value is down, Wright's is high. Villanueva is about to be squeezed out of the development picture with superior prospects fighting for his job, so the Cubs would be wise to secure some value for him now.
Wright has stymied lefties to the tune of a 1.23 FIP this year and his production would replace what the Angels thought they would have in the now-injured Sean Burnett. Villanueva provides an alternative to the struggling David Freese, although likely not until 2015. Still, for a team largely bereft of position player prospects, Villanueva is a nice addition as an excellent glove and possibly playable bat at 3B.
Sanchez received a nearly $600,000 bonus out of Venezuela last summer. The 5'10" lefty has forever to go to make it, but the Cubs have shown a regular desire to gobble up this type of player. Middleton is another wild card as an extremely raw 3rd-round-pick from 2013. Neither player figures to contribute for the Angels until 2017 at the earliest, so it's hardly a huge loss for them. They'd never give up the pair for Wright alone, but getting Villanueva back makes this package plenty acceptable to the Halos. The Cubs convert two largely superfluous assets into more volatile ones with a slim chance of being extremely useful.
Transaction #3: Cubs Trade UTIL Emilio Bonifacio to New York Yankees for C JR Muprhy (July)
Ironically, while Bonifacio isn't even a good regular, he's the type of player that the Yankees and Red Sox could fight over given his (i) tremendous defensive value at 2B and solid value at CF, (ii) excellent speed, and (iii) passable offense. It may seem strange to see the Yankees trade a player off of their 25-man roster, but Murphy is about to get completely squeezed out in New York: Brian McCann is signed for four more years, Gary Sanchez is about ready for AAA as the club's top offensive prospect, Peter O'Brien has 20 homers this year already and is at AA, and the team spent $1.2M on Venezuelan prospect Luis Torrens in 2012. The Cubs would certainly prefer Torrens, Sanchez, or O'Brien, but it's difficult to imagine the Yankees parting with one of them for just Bonifacio. Murphy is still a solid get, a fringe-starter and strong backup option, something that the Cubs desperately need given the presence of John Baker and Eli Whiteside. Though Murphy is listed high on many Yankees lists, the ceiling is low and he's realistically a reserve.
Transaction #4: Cubs Trade SP Travis Wood to Minnesota for 2B Jorge Polanco, OF Adam Walker, and LHP Stephen Gonsalves (July)
Top Twins pitching prospects Kohl Stewart and Jose Berrios are both at least a couple of years away from making an impact, and with the team surprisingly competitive, another controllable starter would be hugely valuable to the franchise. Target Field has traditionally been a bit more forgiving to flyball pitchers than Wrigley Field, so Wood's paltry 33.6% GB% would be even less of an issue in Minnesota. Wood would slot into the Minnesota rotation behind Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Kevin Correia, and Ricky Nolasco, giving Minnesota five solid options in the incredibly tight AL Central.
Polanco and Walker are both lower-level prospects. Polanco is intriguing as a diminutive switch-hitter who has shown excellent control of the strike zone, strong hitting ability, and a tiny bit of power. He probably profiles best as a roving reserve, but that kind of player has a home on every good team. If the pop reaches a .130 or .140 ISO, he's probably a strong regular at 2B. Walker is much messier with an alarming strikeout rate that may very well sabotage his career. But there's real power to work with (.203 ISO) and plenty of glove for an every day outfield role. Gonsalves was Brady Aiken's teammate at Cathedral Catholic High School in 2013 and the lanky lefty shined in his debut after being a 4th-round-pick in 2013. He's got a long ways to go, but the flyer is likely the piece that pushes the Cubs to pull the trigger.
From the Cubs' perspective, trading Wood has nothing to do with Wood himself and everything to do with the larger plan that the team should employ this year. If they pursue the transactions that follow, Wood may very well find himself out of a starting job anyway, so the club would be well-advised to extract maximum value for him this July.
Transaction #5: Cubs Extend SP Jeff Samardzija for 6 years, $110M (October/November)
Extending Samardzija should be the least controversial proposal in this post. Samardzija is a near-ace with supreme stuff, a relatively fresh arm given his age, and the makeup to lead the staff. He'd do well to get the Homer Bailey extension given that Bailey is two years younger, but given inflation and the "loser tax" the Cubs will have to pay, $5M more seems reasonable.
Transaction #6: Cubs Sign SP Jon Lester for 5 years, $120M (November/December)
I still think that it's unlikely that Lester leaves Boston, but if it does, it's hard to imagine him ending up anywhere but Wrigley. Although the current Cubs regime came to Boston just after Lester was drafted, they watched his entire career and a built a World Series-winning rotation around him. A five-year deal would carry him through his age-35 season, a seemingly unlikely contract from this front office given their stated preferences. However, I think they'd make a massive exception for Lester and I certainly wouldn't fault them for doing so.
Transaction #7: Cubs Trade OF Albert Almora, OF Jorge Soler, 1B Dan Vogelbach, RP Armando Rivero, and $10M to Miami for OF Giancarlo Stanton (December/January); Cubs Extend Stanton for 6 years, $133M
Boom! Jeffrey Loria has a habit of not paying for players, and Stanton is on track to test the arbitration system records. He is a free agent following the 2016 season, and while Miami could keep him around for a playoff push in 2015, it's basically impossible to imagine Loria forking over $12M+ for Stanton in 2015. Stanton is likely going to hit the trade market.
This haul is absolutely massive for the Marlins and it gives them the offensive prospects that they lack to pair with their pitching surplus. Just as importantly for them, Almora is from south Florida, Torres is Venezuelan, and both Soler and Rivero are Cuban. This is solidly superior to the offer the Marlins accepted for Miguel Cabrera; it's hard to imagine them turning it down.
For the Cubs, this trade represents a new reality in baseball: marquee bats rarely, if ever, hit the free agent market. With Anthony Rizzo in tow and both Kris Bryant and Javier Baez on the way, this type of acquisition may seem unnecessary. On the contrary, I find this to be the best move that the Cubs can make for Bryant and Baez, placing the spotlight much more squarely on Stanton while enabling the prospects to ease their way into the Majors without such a burden on their shoulders. The extension covers Stanton through his age-30 season, enabling him to hit free agency with another massive payday in front of him. It represents salaries of $12M, $18M, $25M, $25M, $25M, and $25M over the six years.
Cashing in the marquee outfield prospects and the blocked 1B Vogelbach as well as some of the club's spending power to acquire a top-ten player before his age-25 season is a truly wise decision from my vantage point.
Transaction #8: Cubs Sign SP Brandon McCarthy for 1 year, $8M
McCarthy's absurd 22% HR/FB% is bound to drop significantly and when it does, he's just another starter with a sub-2.00 BB/9% who can help bridge the gap as Cubs pitching prospects progress up the pipeline. McCarthy is a placeholder but a strong one at that. This move is the one that's less clearly realistic compared to the prior seven.
Pfew! Where Does That Leave Us?
Well, part of the nature of so many transactions is that they can be disorienting. I'll provide a simple recap of what the roster looks like, both in Chicago and on the farm:
Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester - $24M
Jeff Samardzija - $10M
Jake Arrieta - 1.8M (approx)
Brandon McCarthy - $8M
Edwin Jackson - $11M
Analysis: That rotation is very strong...and it better be for $54.8M next year. Kyle Hendricks provides depth as the ready sixth starter. Some of the pressure on Arrieta is alleviated given the depth behind him. This rotation is strong, although it's only strong and not elite.
Relief Pitchers
Hector Rondon - $0.52M (approx)
Neil Ramirez - $0.52M (approx)
Justin Grimm - $0.52M (approx)
Arodys Vizcaino - $0.53M (approx)
Pedro Strop - $1.9M (approx)
James Russell - $2.2M (approx)
Brian Schlitter - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: For just $6.71M, that's one heckuva bullpen. There's some solid depth with the wave of pitching prospects ready to make noise and the likes of Zac Rosscup and Blake Parker still looking for jobs. We've got plenty of arms and with Rondon and Ramirez both looking incredibly sharp, the arrow is decidedly pointing up. Rosscup could replace Russell straightaway, pushing the group's cost down around $5M even.
Catchers
Welington Castillo - $2.9M (approx)
JR Murphy - $0.51M (approx.)
Analysis: This remains the clear weak link in the organization, although Castillo is an average starter and just $3.41M on the position group keeps the price right. Murphy provides a solid cushion while allowing Rafael Lopez to prove that his offensive improvement from 2014 is real at AAA before pushing for an MLB job.
Infielders
Starlin Castro - $6M
Anthony Rizzo - $5M
Kris Bryant - $0.52M (approx)
Javier Baez - $0.52M (approx)
Luis Valbuena - $2.2M (approx)
Logan Watkins - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: Valbuena has played his way into a valuable utility/bench role with some strong defense, tremendous walking, and now some batting average too. But this infield should go, from right to left, Rizzo, Castro/Baez, Baez/Castro, and Bryant. Wowzers. $14.76M gets the group in 2015.
Outfielders
Giancarlo Stanton - $12M
Justin Ruggiano - $3M (approx)
Arismendy Alcantara - $0.52M (approx)
Junior Lake - $0.53M (approx)
Ryan Sweeney - $1.5M
Analysis: I think Alcantara is bound for CF given an organizational need at the position and Baez and Castro both needing middle infield homes. Second, I think that Junior Lake can be the seventh or eighth best starter on an excellent team given his composite contributions to the team; at the very least, it's worth giving him a continued look to see if he can put things together. Ruggiano and Sweeney provide a nice cushion for Alcantara's first MLB gig while also offering solid flexibility off of the bench. This group comes with a $17.55M price tag.
I imagine that the lineup consisting of these players would go something like this:
2B/SS Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
LF Lake
CF Alcantara
C Castillo
But What About the Farm?
The farm serves a very important purpose: to produce assets that can be converted into MLB quality talent. Given the above formulation, the Cubs own farm system produced six of the eight starters with marquee prospects being used to acquire Rizzo and Stanton. That's exactly how it should be done.
If all of these transactions took place, I think that the club's prospects would be left in the following approximate order:
1. LF Kyle Schwarber
2. SP Paul Blackburn
3. SP Jen-Ho Tseng
4. SP Kyle Hendricks
5. SP Pierce Johnson
6. RP C.J. Edwards
7. CF Jacob Hannemann
8. OF Eloy Jimenez
9. SS Gleyber Torres
10. SP Stephen Gonsalves
11. 2B Jorge Polanco
12. SP Victor Sanchez
13. SP Duane Underwood
14. SP Ricardo Sanchez
This group includes only one draftee from the 2014 class: Jake Stinnett, Mark Zagunis, Carson Sands, Justin Steele, Dylan Cease, and James Norwood as well as 2013 draftees Tyler Skulina, Trevor Clifton, and Rob Zastryzny could all make noise while the similarly drafted 2012 pitchers are all returning to health. International amateurs Jefferson Mejia and Erling Moreno offer additional projectable arms.
This top-ten list isn't terribly exciting, but the system is overflowing with useful arms. For that matter, the dearth of offensive prospects atop the list is hardly alarming as the reality is that the lineup is absurdly young: Welington Castillo would be the only regular over the age of 25 in 2015. Castro, Rizzo, Stanton, and Lake will all be 25 while Bryant and Alcantara will be 23 with Baez bringing up the rear at 22. Schwarber figures to move rather quickly, possibly forcing Lake and Alcantara into a fight for playing time in CF. This could be the lineup by the end of 2015 with only a series of eminently reasonable moves:
2B/SS Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
LF Schwarber
2B/SS Baez
CF Alcantara/Lake
C Castillo
Wow. Just wow.
But We Can't Afford That....Right?
The above 25-man roster comes in south of $100M for 2015 at $97.23M, although the true number is $107.23M given the cash payment to the Marlins for taking on Jorge Soler's expensive deal. There are significant increases in 2016 - a $10M raise for Samardzija, a $6M raise for Stanton, and slowly escalating deals for Rizzo and Castro in addition to arbitration raises for Arrieta, Castillo, Valbuena, and some of the relievers - but the total 25-man payroll should still be around $120M in 2016. Incidentally, 2016 also figures to be the first year after which the Cubs have had a successful season in the prior year, knocking down their expenditures on the draft and international amateur bonuses. Furthermore, Edwin Jackson's deal expires after the 2016 season. Obviously he could be flipped sooner if one of the gaggle of prospects pushing for his job outperforms him in the interim.
The Cubs could pull this off making a series of responsible, well-thought moves suitable for a major franchise. The total player personnel expenditures would certainly jump, but what's the point of making all this money if it can't be reinvested in the team to produce a real winner?
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