Most predictions come out before the season starts. Now one week deep into the six month baseball season, fans have had a chance to see some games and get a sense for what each team has to offer. With that background, let's take a look at how each team can expect to do in 2013.
We'll begin with the National League West, a division that has captured two of the past three World Series titles.
* - Denotes wild card
NL West
1. Arizona
Projected Wins: 91
Explanation: Picking any team ahead of the Dodgers may be surprising to folks. Picking a team over the Dodgers and the defending champions just seems crazy. However, a deeper inquiry shows that the Diamondbacks have very strong pitching with a deep rotation and an even deeper bullpen. The offense is similarly deep with solid player following solid player, even if the unit lacks a big bat after the Justin Upton trade. These types of teams tend to thrive in 162-game seasons.
Player to Watch: Shortstop Cliff Pennington. Pennington has the fielding ability to stick in the major leagues as a decent starter, but his offense was dreadful in 2012. If he can return to his 2009-11 levels, the Arizona lineup would be without a hole.
2. *Los Angeles
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: The Dodgers have spent like crazy and on mostly good talent. But paychecks don't equal wins. The rotation features a pair of true aces at the top in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, complemented by the very good Chad Billingsley. However, that trio is followed by a number of key question marks. Hyun-jin Ryu comes over from South Korea with no big league experience, Josh Beckett appears to be at a career crossroads, and there is frustration among Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang that they need to compete for starting spots. Dissension could be an issue. The offense is a much, much larger problem. While Matt Kemp-Adrian Gonzalez-Andre Ethier is an enviable heart of the order, they are surrounded by the unreliable, injury-prone Carl Crawford and the truly dreadful Nick Punto and Luis Cruz. The Dodgers are plenty willing to spend, but they're going to have a hard time buying a left side of the infield mid-season.
Player to Watch: Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is expected to return in late May and with Punto holding down third base, he cannot get back soon enough for the Dodgers. Hanley has not been an impact player over the last two seasons so it is unlikely that he will be tremendous upon his return. But even solid production could be the difference for the Dodgers making it to October.
3. San Francisco
Projected Wins: 85
Explanation: The Giants will still pitch well in 2013 with Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, and Madison Bumgarner leading a rotation that includes contract-year former aces Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito. The bullpen looks solid too. But the offense just won't be enough in the 2013 NL West given the improved rosters in Arizona and Los Angeles.
Player to Watch: Lincecum. Remember the last time a two-time Cy Young Award winner hit free agency with so much uncertainty about his future?
4. Colorado
Projected Wins: 71
Explanation: The Rockies have a playoff-caliber lineup with a pair of stars, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, surrounded by a pair of good outfielders, Dexter Fowler and Michael Cuddyer. Unfortunately for the offense, the pitching may be the worst in the league with only closer Rafael Betancourt having any real value.
Player to Watch: Jorge de la Rosa. The 32-year-old de la Rosa put together a pair of nice years in 2008 and 2009, but he has made just 33 starts over the last three years. An impending free agent, he has a tremendous amount at stake for a middling team. Those players are interesting to track.
5. San Diego
Projected Wins: 67
Explanation: San Diego lacks impact talent. Between the rotation and the lineup, only third baseman Jedd Gyorko and center fielder Cameron Maybin have loud tools. There are a couple of decent prospects in the system but no big players expected to impact the big league club this season. Huston Street may want to keep his bags packed.
Player to Watch: Maybin. The former elite prospect is a valuable defender in San Diego's voluminous center field, but his offensive game took a step back in 2012. At 26, Maybin needs a power spike or on-base bump to round out as a player.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Chicago Cubs: Starting Pitcher
*NOTE: With the pitching staff, I am going to be much more selective with which players receive mention. While every offensive player who had more than 100 plate appearances was named in the prior posts, there are simply too many pitchers to go through all of them in one post. As such, I will focus on those with a more realistic chance to make the majors and those who produced big statistical seasons.
Starting Pitcher
2012 Overview: A look at the 2012 starting pitching statistics is the most accurate snapshot of the Cubs. Just two pitchers started more than 25 games. The first, new ace Jeff Samardzija, enjoyed an excellent campaign allowing 157 hits and 56 walks over 174.2 innings, good for a 1.22 WHIP and complemented by 180 strikeouts. His 2.9 WAR tied him for 34th among starting pitchers with Jered Weaver and Rick Porcello. However, his xFIP of 3.38 - xFIP is his expected ERA based on his other rate stats - ranks 14th, tied with Gio Gonzalez and just one spot behind Justin Verlander.
The second, lefty Travis Wood, proved to be a big acquisition from the Reds in the Sean Marshall trade. Wood issued more walks than is ideal over his 156 innings, totaling 54. However, he allowed just 133 hits and tallied 119 strikeouts, good for a strong 1.20 WHIP. Wood's potential fatal flaw could be his home runs allowed as he gave up 25 in 2012.
The rotation had a much different look at the beginning of the season with Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Paul Maholm, and Chris Volstad all slated for jobs. At the end of his long tenure with the Cubs, Dempster was superb, production that the team parlayed into a mid-season trade to the Rangers for a pair of minor leaguers, 3B Christian Villanueva and SP Kyle Hendricks. Many Cub fans will wonder what might have been after Dempster nixed a reported deal that would have sent him to the Braves for elite prospect SP Randall Delgado.
Garza again pitched very well when healthy, but the injury bug bit him hard in 2012, limiting him to 18 starts. The same elbow injury that ended his season has him on the disabled list to start 2013 and could seriously limit his trade market mid-season. Nonetheless, he remains arguably the best starter on the team and a key part of the franchise going forward, whether by himself or in the form of the players obtained in his trade.
Maholm was surprisingly excellent in 2012, using great command and throwing piles of strikes as a means of making up for his lack of strikeout stuff. In July, the team sent him to Atlanta along with Reed Johnson in exchange for SP Arodys Vizcaino and RP fodder Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino figures to be a key part of the future for the Cubs, be it as a starter or a high-leverage reliever. He is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and should make a few appearances in Chicago in the last third of the season. Vizcaino's elite fastball and strong, power curveball should enable him to be an impact arm when he returns from injury.
Finally, Volstad suffered through a fantastically awful year. The former first-rounder managed just 61 strikeouts in 111.1 innings while allowing opponents to hit .306. His command was so poor that it called his career into question.
Randy Wells was also expected to compete for a rotation job, but the wheels came off for the steady righty in 2012. He was designated for assignment in July and signed by Texas in December.
In the second half of the season, the Cubs gave 29 starts to Justin Germano, Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley, Jason Berken, and Casey Coleman. Needless to say, those games ended poorly with Germano losing a stunning 10 games in 12 starts and Raley surrendering an 8.14 ERA.
Given the abject failure of spot starters in 2012, in comes as no surprise that Iowa's rotation was horrendous. Although Seth McClung mesmerized with his complete inability to get outs (3-15, 6.35 ERA, 1.81 WHIP), only Casey Coleman managed a WHIP below 1.40 among regular starters.
The story was not drastically better at Tennessee, but the Smokies did produce strong seasons from two starters. Nicholas Struck, a 39th-round-pick in the 2009 draft, continued his progression after struggling in his late-season call-up to Iowa in 2011. Struck threw 155.2 innings, allowing 140 hits and 44 walks with 123 strikeouts, good for a 1.18 WHIP. He also allowed only 14 home runs. He lacks a plus pitch, but features a low-90s fastball with sinking action, a decent slider, and a good change-up with solid command of all three pitches. Struck was joined by Eric Jokisch, a lanky lefty from Northwestern. Jokisch showed little strikeout ability at Tennessee, but managed to allow just 86 hits over 105 innings while issuing 33 walks after a mid-season call-up from Daytona. Jokisch's 1.13 WHIP was clearly the best among starters, although it's hard to project the soft-tossing lefty as anything more than a Doug Davis-type.
At the trade deadline, the team acquired Jacob Brigham from the Rangers in a deal that was conditioned on the health of Brigham's elbow; when the elbow flared up in the off-season, the teams moved to Plan B in which Brigham was returned to Texas for Barret Loux. Loux's story is already a twisting saga. He nearly signed with the Detroit Tigers in 2007 but opted to attend Texas A&M instead. The move paid off as he was chosen sixth overall in the 2010 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, his physical revealed a torn labrum and elbow damage that would likely require surgery, so Arizona refused to offer him a contract. Major League Baseball declared Loux a free agent and he signed with Texas. Loux was exceptional for AA-Frisco, winning the Texas League Pitcher of the Year award by going 14-1 in 127 innings, allowing 120 hits and 41 walks with 100 strikeouts. The 6'5", 230 lbs. righty features a low-90s fastball complemented by a deep but uninspiring group of off-speed pitches in a curveball, slider, and change-up. Unfortunately, many reports indicate that his arm ailments have begun to zap his fastball of its life, rendering him a ticking time bomb with a middle relief projection. If the arm somehow stays healthy, he could still have some projection.
Down at Daytona, the rotation pumped out a couple more interesting names. Lefty Austin Kirk, a 3rd-rounder in 2009, allowed just 138 hits across 152.2 innings at Daytona and Tennessee although he struggled with control in issuing 60 walks. At 22, he represents the club's best left-handed prospect. After being stretched across three levels in 2011, Matt Loosen spent all of 2012 in Daytona and delivered a fine year in 112.2 innings, with 83 hits and 46 walks allowed and 110 strikeouts. However, the fly ball pitcher figures to struggle as he climbs the organizational ladder and encounters more power hitters. 2010 40th-rounder P.J. Francescon enjoyed an excellent start to the year at Peoria which he followed with a solid performance at Daytona in the second half. Over 137.1 innings, he allowed just 111 hits and 38 walks, although his 95 strikeouts suggest that his stuff has a very low ceiling. Finally, signed as a 22-year-old Cuban free agent in 2011, Frank Del Valle features an explosive fastball in a 5'11" frame that he used to avoid hits in 2012. In his full-season debut in the US, Del Valle allowed a stunning 70 hits in 99.1 innings and while his 30 walks are more than ideal, the total is not frightening either. He should be pushed to remain in the rotation in 2013, but, at the very least, he may have a future as a reliever with a mid-90s fastball and hard curveball from the left side.
Two other pitchers who spent only a short time with the Daytona Cubs nonetheless deserve mention and could be parts of the future. The first, Kyle Hendricks, was acquired from the Rangers in the Ryan Dempster deadline trade. An 8th-round pick in 2011, the 6'3" righty has showed tremendous control as a professional. Since making his debut, Hendricks has issued just 24 walks in 183.1 innings while allowed 164 hits over the same span. Hendricks lacks a sexy arsenal with a high-80s fastball, developing cutter, and three solid off-speed pitches: a change-up, slider, and curveball. Despite a relatively low ceiling, his command thus far indicates that Hendricks may be a back-of-the-rotation option for a few years. He will play 2013 at 23 years old, so Tennessee presents a key challenge in his career. Joining him at Tennessee but having made his 2012 appearances at Daytona, Rob Whitenack exploded onto the prospect scene with an excellent 2011 that was cut short for Tommy John surgery. Prior to the procedure, Whitenack lacked a high-strikeout armory, but consistently limited hits with a low walk rate. Perhaps his best ability is inducing ground ball contact, thus avoiding home runs. Over four minor league seasons, Whitenack has allowed just 13 home runs in 309.1 innings. Unfortunately, his return from surgery went horribly in 2012, so the hope here is that Whitenack - who may never recover his mid-90s fastball - can get his fastball moving well again and reach his back-of-the-rotation projection.
Peoria lacked any truly inspiring starting pitching in 2012 with only a pair of arms deserving mention. The first, Gerardo Concepcion, is notable mostly because it is widely believed that his signing helped the team to sign fellow defector Jorge Soler. Concepcion was fantastically awful in 2012 with a 1.91 WHIP. The other starter, Ben Wells, was a 7th-round selection in 2011 and threw just 44 innings at Peoria. Nonetheless, in a system lacking projectible arms, Wells is near the top of the group. He has shown good control of a solid group of pitches featuring a low-90s sinking fastball, slider, splitter, and change-up. Wells's calling card is the sinking action on the fastball and he induced plenty of ground outs in 2012. He did have some elbow issues in 2012, so he needs to stay healthy in 2013 to log innings. His development is a bit more important than most pitchers due to a bizarre contractual clause that requires the Cubs to add him to their 40-man roster in 2013 despite his not being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until December 2014. Hopefully he enjoys a strong year and makes that decision easier.
Sadly, no pitchers of note emerged from Boise and the season in Arizona is so short, any performances there are hard to evaluate.
Fortunately, a handful of names from the 2012 draft and one from the 2011 draft offer some hope. Drafted in the 14-round and signed away from a University of North Carolina football commitment for $2.5M, Dillon Maples has arguably the best stuff of any prospect in the system. He has a boring low-to-mid-90s fastball in his 6'2" frame complemented by a power curveball. His command is very poor at this point due to a couple of injuries that have delayed his development. However, he is still only 21 this year, so a healthy season of logging innings can ignite his prospect star.
After drafting just two pitchers in the first 11 rounds of the 2011 draft - reliever Tony Zych and South African starter Tayler Scott - the new regime saw the desperate need to add pitching talent to the system and responded by following Albert Almora's selection with seven consecutive pitchers in the 2012 draft. Two high schoolers grabbed with the later of those picks - big righty Ryan McNeil and soft-tossing lefty Anthony Prieto - figure to have long development curves and mid-level ceilings. Unsurprisingly, the first three pitchers selected, two of them high schoolers as well, offer much higher projections.
Taken in the first compensation round, California teen Paul Blackburn has a nice three pitch mix with a mid-90s fastball supplemented by a good change-up and curveball. While Blackburn is raw, his ceiling is very high. With an even higher ceiling but even rawer, Duane Underwood came to the Cubs from a Georgia high school featuring a huge fastball and a pair of developing off-speed pitches. Underwood will not move quickly, but his development could be fun to follow as his fastball has big potential with a relatively fluid delivery. Finally, the team's top pitching pick, Missouri State's Pierce Johnson scared some teams with a pre-draft forearm strain, but he was healthy enough to make 6 post-draft starts for the Cubs with good results, showing strikeout ability while inducing lots of ground balls. Johnson also has a high ceiling and could move quickly as a collegiate arm.
2013 and Beyond: 2013 figures to be another year of transition for the team. The front office completely revamped the rotation in the off-season, bringing in Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, and injury reclamation project Scott Baker to fill out the group. The centerpiece acquisition, fireballer Edwin Jackson, figures to slide into the middle of the rotation and hold down a solid spot for the next four years. It seems likely that, yet again, the team will look to sell off useful parts at the trade deadline with most of the baseball world focused on Garza. The main problem for the Cubs is that, depending on how soon the team hopes to compete for the postseason, very few impact arms are available in free agency. Garza will likely be the most sought after player on the market this year, so the decision to trade or extend him likely speaks volumes about the team's 2014 outlook.
The team recently nabbed another mid-level prospect in Cuban Armando Rivero. Rivero throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball with some downward movement complemented well by a splitter and a slurvey breaking ball. A key issue: because he is 25 and has already played in the top Cuban league for four seasons, his $3.1M bonus was exempt from the team's bonus pool.
Overall Perception: Starting rotations are a fickle beast. Because of this, the value of a top-of-the-rotation stud has been made clear over the past few months with multiple $25M annual commitments made to aces. Samardzija - to the surprise of many - has the chance to enter that elite group, although it will require more improvement this year. Garza figures to remain a tier below that group, although his pitches are good enough for him to play up. Jackson is solidly a tier below as a slightly above-average innings eater. The remaining crop of Wood, Feldman, Villanueva, and Baker all figure to be solid, unspectacular arms. The team's rotation screams average this year, but a lengthy injury to or trade of Garza knocks it down a level.
The minor league situation is hardly inspiring, but there are finally some arms to dream on. Hurlers like Struck, Whitenack, Loux, Kirk, Hendricks, and Wells have lower ceilings but could combine to produce a back-end starter or two. But Vizcaino, Underwood, Johnson, Blackburn, and Maples have ceilings rarely seen in the Cubs system. Just as importantly, given the top prospects available in the 2013 draft, it seems likely that the team will bring in another arm with an enormous ceiling, be it Indiana State's Sean Manaea, Stanford's Mark Appel, or Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray. With one truly elite potential arm in tow, the minor league situation looks solid. Health remains a big concern - particularly for Vizcaino, Johnson, and Maples - but healthy seasons could have this group looking very good, albeit mostly in the lower minor leagues.
Final Rating: 5.5
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Previous entries
Relief Pitcher
Center Field
Corner Outfield
Shortstop
Third Base
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
Starting Pitcher
2012 Overview: A look at the 2012 starting pitching statistics is the most accurate snapshot of the Cubs. Just two pitchers started more than 25 games. The first, new ace Jeff Samardzija, enjoyed an excellent campaign allowing 157 hits and 56 walks over 174.2 innings, good for a 1.22 WHIP and complemented by 180 strikeouts. His 2.9 WAR tied him for 34th among starting pitchers with Jered Weaver and Rick Porcello. However, his xFIP of 3.38 - xFIP is his expected ERA based on his other rate stats - ranks 14th, tied with Gio Gonzalez and just one spot behind Justin Verlander.
The second, lefty Travis Wood, proved to be a big acquisition from the Reds in the Sean Marshall trade. Wood issued more walks than is ideal over his 156 innings, totaling 54. However, he allowed just 133 hits and tallied 119 strikeouts, good for a strong 1.20 WHIP. Wood's potential fatal flaw could be his home runs allowed as he gave up 25 in 2012.
The rotation had a much different look at the beginning of the season with Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Paul Maholm, and Chris Volstad all slated for jobs. At the end of his long tenure with the Cubs, Dempster was superb, production that the team parlayed into a mid-season trade to the Rangers for a pair of minor leaguers, 3B Christian Villanueva and SP Kyle Hendricks. Many Cub fans will wonder what might have been after Dempster nixed a reported deal that would have sent him to the Braves for elite prospect SP Randall Delgado.
Garza again pitched very well when healthy, but the injury bug bit him hard in 2012, limiting him to 18 starts. The same elbow injury that ended his season has him on the disabled list to start 2013 and could seriously limit his trade market mid-season. Nonetheless, he remains arguably the best starter on the team and a key part of the franchise going forward, whether by himself or in the form of the players obtained in his trade.
Maholm was surprisingly excellent in 2012, using great command and throwing piles of strikes as a means of making up for his lack of strikeout stuff. In July, the team sent him to Atlanta along with Reed Johnson in exchange for SP Arodys Vizcaino and RP fodder Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino figures to be a key part of the future for the Cubs, be it as a starter or a high-leverage reliever. He is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and should make a few appearances in Chicago in the last third of the season. Vizcaino's elite fastball and strong, power curveball should enable him to be an impact arm when he returns from injury.
Finally, Volstad suffered through a fantastically awful year. The former first-rounder managed just 61 strikeouts in 111.1 innings while allowing opponents to hit .306. His command was so poor that it called his career into question.
Randy Wells was also expected to compete for a rotation job, but the wheels came off for the steady righty in 2012. He was designated for assignment in July and signed by Texas in December.
In the second half of the season, the Cubs gave 29 starts to Justin Germano, Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley, Jason Berken, and Casey Coleman. Needless to say, those games ended poorly with Germano losing a stunning 10 games in 12 starts and Raley surrendering an 8.14 ERA.
Given the abject failure of spot starters in 2012, in comes as no surprise that Iowa's rotation was horrendous. Although Seth McClung mesmerized with his complete inability to get outs (3-15, 6.35 ERA, 1.81 WHIP), only Casey Coleman managed a WHIP below 1.40 among regular starters.
The story was not drastically better at Tennessee, but the Smokies did produce strong seasons from two starters. Nicholas Struck, a 39th-round-pick in the 2009 draft, continued his progression after struggling in his late-season call-up to Iowa in 2011. Struck threw 155.2 innings, allowing 140 hits and 44 walks with 123 strikeouts, good for a 1.18 WHIP. He also allowed only 14 home runs. He lacks a plus pitch, but features a low-90s fastball with sinking action, a decent slider, and a good change-up with solid command of all three pitches. Struck was joined by Eric Jokisch, a lanky lefty from Northwestern. Jokisch showed little strikeout ability at Tennessee, but managed to allow just 86 hits over 105 innings while issuing 33 walks after a mid-season call-up from Daytona. Jokisch's 1.13 WHIP was clearly the best among starters, although it's hard to project the soft-tossing lefty as anything more than a Doug Davis-type.
At the trade deadline, the team acquired Jacob Brigham from the Rangers in a deal that was conditioned on the health of Brigham's elbow; when the elbow flared up in the off-season, the teams moved to Plan B in which Brigham was returned to Texas for Barret Loux. Loux's story is already a twisting saga. He nearly signed with the Detroit Tigers in 2007 but opted to attend Texas A&M instead. The move paid off as he was chosen sixth overall in the 2010 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, his physical revealed a torn labrum and elbow damage that would likely require surgery, so Arizona refused to offer him a contract. Major League Baseball declared Loux a free agent and he signed with Texas. Loux was exceptional for AA-Frisco, winning the Texas League Pitcher of the Year award by going 14-1 in 127 innings, allowing 120 hits and 41 walks with 100 strikeouts. The 6'5", 230 lbs. righty features a low-90s fastball complemented by a deep but uninspiring group of off-speed pitches in a curveball, slider, and change-up. Unfortunately, many reports indicate that his arm ailments have begun to zap his fastball of its life, rendering him a ticking time bomb with a middle relief projection. If the arm somehow stays healthy, he could still have some projection.
Down at Daytona, the rotation pumped out a couple more interesting names. Lefty Austin Kirk, a 3rd-rounder in 2009, allowed just 138 hits across 152.2 innings at Daytona and Tennessee although he struggled with control in issuing 60 walks. At 22, he represents the club's best left-handed prospect. After being stretched across three levels in 2011, Matt Loosen spent all of 2012 in Daytona and delivered a fine year in 112.2 innings, with 83 hits and 46 walks allowed and 110 strikeouts. However, the fly ball pitcher figures to struggle as he climbs the organizational ladder and encounters more power hitters. 2010 40th-rounder P.J. Francescon enjoyed an excellent start to the year at Peoria which he followed with a solid performance at Daytona in the second half. Over 137.1 innings, he allowed just 111 hits and 38 walks, although his 95 strikeouts suggest that his stuff has a very low ceiling. Finally, signed as a 22-year-old Cuban free agent in 2011, Frank Del Valle features an explosive fastball in a 5'11" frame that he used to avoid hits in 2012. In his full-season debut in the US, Del Valle allowed a stunning 70 hits in 99.1 innings and while his 30 walks are more than ideal, the total is not frightening either. He should be pushed to remain in the rotation in 2013, but, at the very least, he may have a future as a reliever with a mid-90s fastball and hard curveball from the left side.
Two other pitchers who spent only a short time with the Daytona Cubs nonetheless deserve mention and could be parts of the future. The first, Kyle Hendricks, was acquired from the Rangers in the Ryan Dempster deadline trade. An 8th-round pick in 2011, the 6'3" righty has showed tremendous control as a professional. Since making his debut, Hendricks has issued just 24 walks in 183.1 innings while allowed 164 hits over the same span. Hendricks lacks a sexy arsenal with a high-80s fastball, developing cutter, and three solid off-speed pitches: a change-up, slider, and curveball. Despite a relatively low ceiling, his command thus far indicates that Hendricks may be a back-of-the-rotation option for a few years. He will play 2013 at 23 years old, so Tennessee presents a key challenge in his career. Joining him at Tennessee but having made his 2012 appearances at Daytona, Rob Whitenack exploded onto the prospect scene with an excellent 2011 that was cut short for Tommy John surgery. Prior to the procedure, Whitenack lacked a high-strikeout armory, but consistently limited hits with a low walk rate. Perhaps his best ability is inducing ground ball contact, thus avoiding home runs. Over four minor league seasons, Whitenack has allowed just 13 home runs in 309.1 innings. Unfortunately, his return from surgery went horribly in 2012, so the hope here is that Whitenack - who may never recover his mid-90s fastball - can get his fastball moving well again and reach his back-of-the-rotation projection.
Peoria lacked any truly inspiring starting pitching in 2012 with only a pair of arms deserving mention. The first, Gerardo Concepcion, is notable mostly because it is widely believed that his signing helped the team to sign fellow defector Jorge Soler. Concepcion was fantastically awful in 2012 with a 1.91 WHIP. The other starter, Ben Wells, was a 7th-round selection in 2011 and threw just 44 innings at Peoria. Nonetheless, in a system lacking projectible arms, Wells is near the top of the group. He has shown good control of a solid group of pitches featuring a low-90s sinking fastball, slider, splitter, and change-up. Wells's calling card is the sinking action on the fastball and he induced plenty of ground outs in 2012. He did have some elbow issues in 2012, so he needs to stay healthy in 2013 to log innings. His development is a bit more important than most pitchers due to a bizarre contractual clause that requires the Cubs to add him to their 40-man roster in 2013 despite his not being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until December 2014. Hopefully he enjoys a strong year and makes that decision easier.
Sadly, no pitchers of note emerged from Boise and the season in Arizona is so short, any performances there are hard to evaluate.
Fortunately, a handful of names from the 2012 draft and one from the 2011 draft offer some hope. Drafted in the 14-round and signed away from a University of North Carolina football commitment for $2.5M, Dillon Maples has arguably the best stuff of any prospect in the system. He has a boring low-to-mid-90s fastball in his 6'2" frame complemented by a power curveball. His command is very poor at this point due to a couple of injuries that have delayed his development. However, he is still only 21 this year, so a healthy season of logging innings can ignite his prospect star.
After drafting just two pitchers in the first 11 rounds of the 2011 draft - reliever Tony Zych and South African starter Tayler Scott - the new regime saw the desperate need to add pitching talent to the system and responded by following Albert Almora's selection with seven consecutive pitchers in the 2012 draft. Two high schoolers grabbed with the later of those picks - big righty Ryan McNeil and soft-tossing lefty Anthony Prieto - figure to have long development curves and mid-level ceilings. Unsurprisingly, the first three pitchers selected, two of them high schoolers as well, offer much higher projections.
Taken in the first compensation round, California teen Paul Blackburn has a nice three pitch mix with a mid-90s fastball supplemented by a good change-up and curveball. While Blackburn is raw, his ceiling is very high. With an even higher ceiling but even rawer, Duane Underwood came to the Cubs from a Georgia high school featuring a huge fastball and a pair of developing off-speed pitches. Underwood will not move quickly, but his development could be fun to follow as his fastball has big potential with a relatively fluid delivery. Finally, the team's top pitching pick, Missouri State's Pierce Johnson scared some teams with a pre-draft forearm strain, but he was healthy enough to make 6 post-draft starts for the Cubs with good results, showing strikeout ability while inducing lots of ground balls. Johnson also has a high ceiling and could move quickly as a collegiate arm.
2013 and Beyond: 2013 figures to be another year of transition for the team. The front office completely revamped the rotation in the off-season, bringing in Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, and injury reclamation project Scott Baker to fill out the group. The centerpiece acquisition, fireballer Edwin Jackson, figures to slide into the middle of the rotation and hold down a solid spot for the next four years. It seems likely that, yet again, the team will look to sell off useful parts at the trade deadline with most of the baseball world focused on Garza. The main problem for the Cubs is that, depending on how soon the team hopes to compete for the postseason, very few impact arms are available in free agency. Garza will likely be the most sought after player on the market this year, so the decision to trade or extend him likely speaks volumes about the team's 2014 outlook.
The team recently nabbed another mid-level prospect in Cuban Armando Rivero. Rivero throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball with some downward movement complemented well by a splitter and a slurvey breaking ball. A key issue: because he is 25 and has already played in the top Cuban league for four seasons, his $3.1M bonus was exempt from the team's bonus pool.
Overall Perception: Starting rotations are a fickle beast. Because of this, the value of a top-of-the-rotation stud has been made clear over the past few months with multiple $25M annual commitments made to aces. Samardzija - to the surprise of many - has the chance to enter that elite group, although it will require more improvement this year. Garza figures to remain a tier below that group, although his pitches are good enough for him to play up. Jackson is solidly a tier below as a slightly above-average innings eater. The remaining crop of Wood, Feldman, Villanueva, and Baker all figure to be solid, unspectacular arms. The team's rotation screams average this year, but a lengthy injury to or trade of Garza knocks it down a level.
The minor league situation is hardly inspiring, but there are finally some arms to dream on. Hurlers like Struck, Whitenack, Loux, Kirk, Hendricks, and Wells have lower ceilings but could combine to produce a back-end starter or two. But Vizcaino, Underwood, Johnson, Blackburn, and Maples have ceilings rarely seen in the Cubs system. Just as importantly, given the top prospects available in the 2013 draft, it seems likely that the team will bring in another arm with an enormous ceiling, be it Indiana State's Sean Manaea, Stanford's Mark Appel, or Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray. With one truly elite potential arm in tow, the minor league situation looks solid. Health remains a big concern - particularly for Vizcaino, Johnson, and Maples - but healthy seasons could have this group looking very good, albeit mostly in the lower minor leagues.
Final Rating: 5.5
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Previous entries
Relief Pitcher
Center Field
Corner Outfield
Shortstop
Third Base
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
Monday, April 1, 2013
Chicago Cubs: Relief Pitcher
*NOTE: With the pitching staff, I am going to be much more selective with which players receive mention. While every offensive player who had more than 100 plate appearances was named in the prior posts, there are simply too many pitchers to go through all of them in one post. As such, I will focus on those with a more realistic chance to make the majors and those who produced big statistical seasons.
Relief Pitcher
2012 Overview: The back end of the bullpen proved to be an absolute mess for the first part of 2012, but the group actually settled in nicely during the second half. No individual embodied this reality more than closer Carlos Marmol. He was horrendous prior to the All-Star break, allowing 20 hits and issuing 28 walks in 25.2 innings, although he did have 33 strikeouts. After the break, he allowed 20 hits again but cut his walks to 17 despite pitching four more innings than he had previously; he add 39 strikeouts after the break.
Middle reliever Shawn Camp had the opposite experience, throwing 45 pre-break innings with 39 hits, 10 walks, and 34 strikeouts whereas he struggled through 32.2 post-break innings with 40 hits, 11 walks, and just 20 strikeouts. Camp was never dominant; however, he did help stabilize what was an extremely shaky unit.
Lefty James Russell solidified himself as an above-average reliever, putting together a very solid year with a 1.30 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 69.1 innings.
Unfortunately for the Cubs, Russell was the only lefty (and only reliever other than Camp) who maintained a job throughout 2012. Journeyman Manny Corpas was below-average, a roster filler. Youngster Rafael Dolis showed a power arsenal with no command, walking 23 batters in just 38 innings. Prospect Alberto Cabrera also struggled with his control with 18 walks in 21.2 innings, although Cabrera showed more strikeout ability notching 27. Organizational depth players like Scott Maine, Casey Coleman, Jaye Chapman, and Jeff Beliveau all made at least 14 appearances with poor results.
Two young pitchers did show some promise in limiited 2012 appearances. Michael Bowden, acquired after being designated for assignment by the Red Sox, pitched well in 36.2 innings allowing 30 hits and 16 walks while striking out 29. The former first-round pick is already 26 but should maintain a job. At a different point in his career, Rule 5 Draft selection Lendy Castillo pitched just 16 innings with horrendous results. Yet the 23-year-old showed bursts of potential and will have the chance to develop in the minors in 2013.
Down in Iowa, both Esmailin Caridad (29) and Blake Parker (28) pitched to strong campaigns, but neither project as more than fringe middle relievers when pitching their best.
Four names stand out from Tennessee. Converted starter Trey McNutt - the club's former top pitching prospect - moved to the bullpen but continued his downslide. 2013 is certainly a make-or-break year for McNutt as he is yet to harness his power arsenal. Kevin Rhoderick struggled more with control in 2012; despite his high strikeout total, his control has stagnated his career. Closer Frank Batista turned 23 last April and followed with another strong year as a closer with only 38 hits allowed in 52.2 IP and 21 walks. While he lacks big strikeout potential, he has a solid chance to reach the majors. Finally, 2011 fourth-rounder Tony Zych put together a strong year across Daytona and Tennessee over 61.1 IP, allowing 58 hits and 19 walks while striking out 64. At just 22, Zych has a big league future and may be the club's best true-relief prospect.
Sadly, Daytona produced just one reliever who enjoyed a strong 2012. A.J. Morris - who just turned 26 - was terrific against the younger competition, going 52.1 innings with 36 hits allowed, 15 walks, and 42 strikeouts. 2010 top pick Hayden Simpson completed his flop with a laughable 2.07 WHIP before being released this spring.
A couple of names popped up at Peoria. 21-year-old closer Yao-Lin Wang enjoyed a solid campaign with big strikeout totals (82 in 78 innings) but lacked a great ability to keep runners off base (1.27 WHIP). Converted outfielder Kyler Burke had a great 1.07 WHIP without strikeout stuff, but struggled upon his call-up to Daytona. 22-year-old lefty Jeffry Antigua split the year between Peoria and Tennessee showing a consistent ability to retire batters with plenty of strikeouts at both levels. Antigua has moved well as a one-level-at-a-time player.
While a couple of pitchers produced well at even lower levels - such as Eduardo Orozco, Michael Heesch, and Brian Smith - they did so over such short spans and against such low-level competition that it is nearly impossible to evaluate their performances.
The team did make a big acquisition in July, signing Dominican Juan Carlos Paniagua to a $1.5M bonus. Paniagua previously signed with the Diamondbacks and Yankees, yet both contracts were voided due to identity fraud. If Paniagua manages to stick, his low-to-mid 90s fastball is complemented by a good changeup, and a vastly improved slider. At 22, Paniagua seems unlikely to be given the opportunity to start, so he could move quickly in the bullpen if his command improves.
2013 and Beyond: Marmol is set to earn $9.8M in 2013 and he will start the year back in the closer's role. It is unlikely that he ends the year there as the volatile reliever will have more value for a contender if he pitches well. The bullpen figures to be very tumultuous again in 2013, with Russell and Bowden the only holdovers presumably assured of opportunities to pitch. Newcomer Hisanori Takahashi figures to get chances as a lefty.
The team did sign former Japanese closer Kyuji Fujikawa to a two year, $9M deal. The 32-year-old features a declining, yet still good, fastball and a power splitter. He occasionally throws a breaking pitch as well. Fujikawa figures to take over the closer's role when Marmol leaves, whether that is mid-season or at the end of 2013.
The team also inked Korean reliever Chang-Yong Lim. Lim is recovering from his second Tommy John surgery and will not pitch for the team until 2014. Lim turned down offers from the Red Sox and Rangers to join the Cubs, so there is some hope that he can contribute a year or two of production. However, at 36, expectations are extremely low.
The unit will hopefully be completed by an overflow starting pitcher or two as the Cubs should have seven starters if everyone is healthy at the same time. If all of the starters do manage to get healthy, suddenly the group doesn't look so bad with Marmol, Fujikawa, Russell, Camp, Bowden, and two starters as long relievers. That's a bit too idealistic for my taste.
Overall Perception: Yuck. It's just a horrendous group with only a handful of MLB-caliber pitchers, let alone strong arms in the back. Having recognized the complete dearth of bullpen arms, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer made a really nice acquisition in Fujikawa. Even if he flops, he was worth the minimal investment and Japanese relievers have experienced quite a bit of success over the years. Paniagua is an intriguing option who could explode or implode this year and Antigua continues to climb. But barring a breakout campaign from McNutt or Burke exploding in his second full year on the mound, there isn't much in the pipeline either.
Final Rating: 1.5
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Previous entries
Center Field
Corner Outfield
Shortstop
Third Base
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Chicago Cubs: Center Field
Center Field
2012 Overview: The position was a mess for all of 2012 with no individual player making more than 38 starts and six people starting at least 13 games. Marlon Byrd was shipped to Boston after a dreadful start while Reed Johnson enjoyed plenty of success before moving on to Atlanta. Joe Mather proved to be incapable of a major league job and Tony Campana provided good defense with tremendous speed and no other value. Campana has since moved on to Arizona.
The two primary center fielders remain: David DeJesus is slated to play center full-time in 2013, while Brett Jackson remains the center fielder of the future. The club's 2009 first-round pick, Jackson has proved to be the player the Cubs expected to have when they drafted him: he has good power, good center field defense, good speed, excellent walking ability, and a huge problem with strikeouts that threatens to curtail his career and significantly lower his ceiling. His experience in 2012 at Iowa showed the good while his time in Chicago showed the bad. In 467 AAA plate appearances, Jackson amassed a .256/.338/.479/.817 line with 15 home runs and 27 stolen bases. Unfortunately, over 142 major league plate appearances, he mustered just a .175/.303/.342/.645 line with 4 home runs, no steals, and a crippling 41.5% strikeout rate.
At Tennessee, the job was split between Rubi Silva and Matt Szczur. Szczur has the brighter prospect star of the pair given his excellent patience at the plate and big speed. At this stage, it seems clear that he has very little impact potential given no home run power, but he should make for a good reserve outfielder or a fringe starter. The combined .267/.360/.390/.751 line at Daytona and Tennessee for the 23-year-old confirms this, as does his 42 steals. Silva has showed solid batting ability in his career, but his walk rate has been paltry. As it is not complemented by a power projection, Silva needs to develop his walking ability or play pristine defense to have a chance to make it.
Taiwan Easterling manned center field in Peoria for most of 2012, but the now-24-year-old showed only some speed with light power, poor batting ability, and too many strikeouts. He is athletic enough to get another crack at showing his skills, but time is not on his side. On the other hand, Pin-Chieh Chen turned 21 last July and showed the kind of speed that keeps players in the game for a long time, swiping 36 bases. Although he has no power at all, he has a great walk rate - 11.5% in 2012 - that should enable him to keep playing for years to work on his batting average. His ceiling is likely that of a fifth outfielder.
In the low levels, only one name is truly exciting. After being selected with the sixth overall pick in the 2012 draft and awarded a $3.9M signing bonus, Albert Almora showed the type of refined hitting ability that made the 18-year-old so sought after by clubs. Almora alarmingly mustered just two walks in 33 games, although his .321/.331/.464/.795 combined line featured just 13 strikeouts. He should have the chance to hit for high average with solid power, good speed, and excellent center field defense. While his ceiling is lower than that of most top-10 selections, Almora is a much better bet to develop into at least a solid major leaguer than most picks.
2013 and Beyond: DeJesus should, yet again, prove to be a dependable full-time player, even if his ceiling is that of a slightly above-average regular. Jackson turned 24 in August, so he is unlikely to completely rework his game. If he finds a way to make more contact without squeezing his walk rate or power, he should still be a good everyday center fielder as early as 2013. If the strikeouts continue, he is unplayable in a full-time role.
Szczur remains a name on which to keep an eye; if he can add some power or batting ability to his game, he could still develop into a solid starter, although that is unlikely. Almora, on the other hand, is the player to watch in the group. He is young enough that his entire game needs to develop. He is also young enough such that any development of his walk rate, power, or speed can be significant.
Overall Perception: DeJesus represents a good, league average short-term solution. Jackson remains one of the better center field prospects in the game and could be a big part of the club's future. And Almora, young as he is, could be one of the best center fielders in the game in a decade. It's a really solid group with the potential for more.
Final Rating: 7.0
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Previous entries
Corner Outfield
Shortstop
Third Base
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
2012 Overview: The position was a mess for all of 2012 with no individual player making more than 38 starts and six people starting at least 13 games. Marlon Byrd was shipped to Boston after a dreadful start while Reed Johnson enjoyed plenty of success before moving on to Atlanta. Joe Mather proved to be incapable of a major league job and Tony Campana provided good defense with tremendous speed and no other value. Campana has since moved on to Arizona.
The two primary center fielders remain: David DeJesus is slated to play center full-time in 2013, while Brett Jackson remains the center fielder of the future. The club's 2009 first-round pick, Jackson has proved to be the player the Cubs expected to have when they drafted him: he has good power, good center field defense, good speed, excellent walking ability, and a huge problem with strikeouts that threatens to curtail his career and significantly lower his ceiling. His experience in 2012 at Iowa showed the good while his time in Chicago showed the bad. In 467 AAA plate appearances, Jackson amassed a .256/.338/.479/.817 line with 15 home runs and 27 stolen bases. Unfortunately, over 142 major league plate appearances, he mustered just a .175/.303/.342/.645 line with 4 home runs, no steals, and a crippling 41.5% strikeout rate.
At Tennessee, the job was split between Rubi Silva and Matt Szczur. Szczur has the brighter prospect star of the pair given his excellent patience at the plate and big speed. At this stage, it seems clear that he has very little impact potential given no home run power, but he should make for a good reserve outfielder or a fringe starter. The combined .267/.360/.390/.751 line at Daytona and Tennessee for the 23-year-old confirms this, as does his 42 steals. Silva has showed solid batting ability in his career, but his walk rate has been paltry. As it is not complemented by a power projection, Silva needs to develop his walking ability or play pristine defense to have a chance to make it.
Taiwan Easterling manned center field in Peoria for most of 2012, but the now-24-year-old showed only some speed with light power, poor batting ability, and too many strikeouts. He is athletic enough to get another crack at showing his skills, but time is not on his side. On the other hand, Pin-Chieh Chen turned 21 last July and showed the kind of speed that keeps players in the game for a long time, swiping 36 bases. Although he has no power at all, he has a great walk rate - 11.5% in 2012 - that should enable him to keep playing for years to work on his batting average. His ceiling is likely that of a fifth outfielder.
In the low levels, only one name is truly exciting. After being selected with the sixth overall pick in the 2012 draft and awarded a $3.9M signing bonus, Albert Almora showed the type of refined hitting ability that made the 18-year-old so sought after by clubs. Almora alarmingly mustered just two walks in 33 games, although his .321/.331/.464/.795 combined line featured just 13 strikeouts. He should have the chance to hit for high average with solid power, good speed, and excellent center field defense. While his ceiling is lower than that of most top-10 selections, Almora is a much better bet to develop into at least a solid major leaguer than most picks.
2013 and Beyond: DeJesus should, yet again, prove to be a dependable full-time player, even if his ceiling is that of a slightly above-average regular. Jackson turned 24 in August, so he is unlikely to completely rework his game. If he finds a way to make more contact without squeezing his walk rate or power, he should still be a good everyday center fielder as early as 2013. If the strikeouts continue, he is unplayable in a full-time role.
Szczur remains a name on which to keep an eye; if he can add some power or batting ability to his game, he could still develop into a solid starter, although that is unlikely. Almora, on the other hand, is the player to watch in the group. He is young enough that his entire game needs to develop. He is also young enough such that any development of his walk rate, power, or speed can be significant.
Overall Perception: DeJesus represents a good, league average short-term solution. Jackson remains one of the better center field prospects in the game and could be a big part of the club's future. And Almora, young as he is, could be one of the best center fielders in the game in a decade. It's a really solid group with the potential for more.
Final Rating: 7.0
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Previous entries
Corner Outfield
Shortstop
Third Base
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Chicago Cubs: The Corner Outfielders
Corner Outfield
2012 Overview: 2012 was a very respectable year in the corners for the Cubs. Alfonso Soriano enjoyed a resurgence in left field posting a solid .262/.322/.499/.821 line with 32 home runs while playing 151 games. In right, newcomer David DeJesus returned to his historically solid, unspectacular form with a .263/.350/.403/.753 line; he also led the team in innings played in center field despite starting twice as many games in right. Although the production was a far cry from the days when Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou manned the corners at Wrigley, it was nonetheless a middle-of-the-pack group.
The situation on the farm was much less encouraging. Acquired in the Sean Marshall trade and immediately added to the 40-man roster, Dave Sappelt played an underwhelming season at Iowa although it did end in Chicago. The athletic righty managed just a .266/.314/.376/.690 line with 7 home runs and 15 stolen bases in the full AAA season prior to an improved .275/.351/.449/.800 line over 69 major league at-bats. Sappelt's total line hardly tells the entire story: he has shown extreme splits over his career depending on whether he is facing a right-handed or left-handed pitcher. Since reaching AAA full-time in 2011, Sappelt has a .255/.310/.369/.679 line versus righties compared to .339/.393/.466/.859 versus righties; his walk rate is very similar for both, but he cuts his strikeout rate in half when facing righties. He should be able to carve out a career as a platoon corner outfielder, serving as an athletic reserve.
His companion at Iowa, Ty Wright, trodded through another decent but uninspiring year with a .295/.351/.451/.802 combined line between Iowa and Tennessee. Unfortunately, Wright turned 28 last month, so he hardly constitutes a prospect. Jim Aducci enjoyed basically the same year, split between Tennessee and Iowa with strong on-base skills but little power; Adduci is now in the Texas system.
The Tennessee lineup featured a trio of fringe prospects, two of whom could crack a major league roster in the next few years, none of whom project as regulars at the major league level. The group is led by Michael Burgess, a former supplemental first-round pick of the Nationals that came to the Cubs in the Tom Gorzelanny trade. Burgess is much like a mirror of Sappelt, though less athletic: he is a strong lefty with very good splits against right-handed pitching but an inability to hit left-handers. He produced a .267/.356/.450/.806 line against righties compared to .230/.329/.324/.654 versus lefties, almost perfectly in line with his career splits. Burgess turned 24 in October and has been a one-step-at-a-time player as a pro, but he had shown enough with his bat to stay in consideration as a platoon partner for Sappelt in the coming years. However, Houston selected him the AAA portion of the Rule 5 Draft.
Jae-Hoon Ha is a very different player, a wiry scrapper who projects as a major league caliber defender with an iffy bat. Ha has yet to show a discernable split over his career, producing very pedestrian offensive lines with a bit of speed, decent batting average, average on-base ability, and little power. However, he still has room to grow leaving his prospect star dim but alight.
The final member of Tennessee's outfield at the end of the season, Nelson Perez, a burly but stalled 25-year-old lefty, again enjoyed great success at Daytona before fumbling his time at Tennessee. His combined line shows a superb walk rate, great power, and a complete inability to make contact versus AA pitching.
Daytona's corners were manned by a pair of non-prospects. Powerless John Andreoli is nonetheless an on-base machine with prodigious speed. Despite his .289 batting average and just one home run on the year, Andreoli managed a .402 on-base percentage via 75 walks and amassed 55 stolen bases. Given his 6'1", 215 lbs. frame, power would be an expected part of his profile but it simply is not. He has the look of a base stealing specialist as the 25th man on a playoff roster. Elieser Bonne signed as a 24-year-old rookie from Cuba in 2011 and he struggled mightily in his full-season debut at Daytona with a .275/.293/.360/.652 line.
In Peoria, a revolving door of men occupied the corner spots. 20-year-old Oliver Zapata played the full season for the Chiefs, producing no useful results outside of his 19 stolen bases. The slight switch-hitter likely has no future. Big Yasiel Balaguert produced similar results, without the speed. He is unlikely to make an impact, even having just turned 20. Bijan Rademacher very quickly moved from the rookie league through Boise on his way to Peoria where he hit a wall in his debut season. He also has a non-prospect profile.
Unlike the trio listed above, the organization's best acquisition of 2012 ended his season in Peoria. Signed to a nine-year, $30M contract just before the new collective bargaining agreement's signing bonus penalties kicked in, Cuban Jorge Soler did not disappoint the Peoria viewers. After an up-and-down debut in Arizona, Soler jumped to Peoria and, in 20 games, put together a .338/.398/.463/.832 line with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases. In just 34 professional games, Soler has 5 home runs and 12 stolen bases to go with his .369 on-base percentage and .164 ISO. Soler's prototype frame at 6'4", 215 lbs. and his big league approach at the plate has the Cubs thinking big.
Boise's outfield was comprised of a handful of unknown, underwhelming players. Dong-Yub Kim, a big righty from South Korea, showed good power, but had a preposterous 33/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 112 at-bats. Big Xavier Batista showed a bit of power, but had an even more preposterous 54 strikeouts in 167 at-bats. Shawon Dunston, Jr. scuttled through his time at Boise with just a .254 on-base percentage, although he did begin his professional career with a solid showing in the rookie league where he showed good patience and some pop. Trey Martin played some good baseball between the rookie league and Boise, although he did little to give rise to much excitement as a 19-year-old with a .270/.318/.377/.696 line in Boise.
2013 and Beyond: Although Soriano has repeatedly stated his desire to close his career as a Cub, it is overwhelming more likely that his major contribution to the team comes in the form of a prospect or two that he brings to the organization in a mid-season trade. If Soriano is healthy, there is no reason he cannot produce another strong season with excellent power, little speed, and below-average on-base percentage. DeJesus may fit the same mold, although he will not be bringing back a return in a trade as a corner outfielder. With the club's addition of platoon mates Nate Schierholtz and Scott Hairston in right field, DeJesus will man center field full time. Schierholtz and Hairston are the ultimate platoon with both showing great offensive ability against opposite-handed pitching and futility against same-handed pitchers.
The most important development for the organization in 2013 will be that of Soler. If the athletic righty continue to shows the mature approach, strong defense, and good on-base ability that complements his powerful frame so well, he could push for a major league job in 2014. At just 20 in Daytona, he has room for error, but he does not appear to need it.
Overall Perception: This is an interesting if uninspiring position group. The major league corner outfielders complement each other nicely, even if none of them figure to be major contributors in a couple of years. Soler is an elite prospect, but beyond him the system is barren, save for Sappelt as a potential reserve.
Final Rating: 3.0
---------------------------------------------------
Previous entries
Third Base
Shortstop
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
2012 Overview: 2012 was a very respectable year in the corners for the Cubs. Alfonso Soriano enjoyed a resurgence in left field posting a solid .262/.322/.499/.821 line with 32 home runs while playing 151 games. In right, newcomer David DeJesus returned to his historically solid, unspectacular form with a .263/.350/.403/.753 line; he also led the team in innings played in center field despite starting twice as many games in right. Although the production was a far cry from the days when Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou manned the corners at Wrigley, it was nonetheless a middle-of-the-pack group.
The situation on the farm was much less encouraging. Acquired in the Sean Marshall trade and immediately added to the 40-man roster, Dave Sappelt played an underwhelming season at Iowa although it did end in Chicago. The athletic righty managed just a .266/.314/.376/.690 line with 7 home runs and 15 stolen bases in the full AAA season prior to an improved .275/.351/.449/.800 line over 69 major league at-bats. Sappelt's total line hardly tells the entire story: he has shown extreme splits over his career depending on whether he is facing a right-handed or left-handed pitcher. Since reaching AAA full-time in 2011, Sappelt has a .255/.310/.369/.679 line versus righties compared to .339/.393/.466/.859 versus righties; his walk rate is very similar for both, but he cuts his strikeout rate in half when facing righties. He should be able to carve out a career as a platoon corner outfielder, serving as an athletic reserve.
His companion at Iowa, Ty Wright, trodded through another decent but uninspiring year with a .295/.351/.451/.802 combined line between Iowa and Tennessee. Unfortunately, Wright turned 28 last month, so he hardly constitutes a prospect. Jim Aducci enjoyed basically the same year, split between Tennessee and Iowa with strong on-base skills but little power; Adduci is now in the Texas system.
The Tennessee lineup featured a trio of fringe prospects, two of whom could crack a major league roster in the next few years, none of whom project as regulars at the major league level. The group is led by Michael Burgess, a former supplemental first-round pick of the Nationals that came to the Cubs in the Tom Gorzelanny trade. Burgess is much like a mirror of Sappelt, though less athletic: he is a strong lefty with very good splits against right-handed pitching but an inability to hit left-handers. He produced a .267/.356/.450/.806 line against righties compared to .230/.329/.324/.654 versus lefties, almost perfectly in line with his career splits. Burgess turned 24 in October and has been a one-step-at-a-time player as a pro, but he had shown enough with his bat to stay in consideration as a platoon partner for Sappelt in the coming years. However, Houston selected him the AAA portion of the Rule 5 Draft.
Jae-Hoon Ha is a very different player, a wiry scrapper who projects as a major league caliber defender with an iffy bat. Ha has yet to show a discernable split over his career, producing very pedestrian offensive lines with a bit of speed, decent batting average, average on-base ability, and little power. However, he still has room to grow leaving his prospect star dim but alight.
The final member of Tennessee's outfield at the end of the season, Nelson Perez, a burly but stalled 25-year-old lefty, again enjoyed great success at Daytona before fumbling his time at Tennessee. His combined line shows a superb walk rate, great power, and a complete inability to make contact versus AA pitching.
Daytona's corners were manned by a pair of non-prospects. Powerless John Andreoli is nonetheless an on-base machine with prodigious speed. Despite his .289 batting average and just one home run on the year, Andreoli managed a .402 on-base percentage via 75 walks and amassed 55 stolen bases. Given his 6'1", 215 lbs. frame, power would be an expected part of his profile but it simply is not. He has the look of a base stealing specialist as the 25th man on a playoff roster. Elieser Bonne signed as a 24-year-old rookie from Cuba in 2011 and he struggled mightily in his full-season debut at Daytona with a .275/.293/.360/.652 line.
In Peoria, a revolving door of men occupied the corner spots. 20-year-old Oliver Zapata played the full season for the Chiefs, producing no useful results outside of his 19 stolen bases. The slight switch-hitter likely has no future. Big Yasiel Balaguert produced similar results, without the speed. He is unlikely to make an impact, even having just turned 20. Bijan Rademacher very quickly moved from the rookie league through Boise on his way to Peoria where he hit a wall in his debut season. He also has a non-prospect profile.
Unlike the trio listed above, the organization's best acquisition of 2012 ended his season in Peoria. Signed to a nine-year, $30M contract just before the new collective bargaining agreement's signing bonus penalties kicked in, Cuban Jorge Soler did not disappoint the Peoria viewers. After an up-and-down debut in Arizona, Soler jumped to Peoria and, in 20 games, put together a .338/.398/.463/.832 line with 3 home runs and 4 stolen bases. In just 34 professional games, Soler has 5 home runs and 12 stolen bases to go with his .369 on-base percentage and .164 ISO. Soler's prototype frame at 6'4", 215 lbs. and his big league approach at the plate has the Cubs thinking big.
Boise's outfield was comprised of a handful of unknown, underwhelming players. Dong-Yub Kim, a big righty from South Korea, showed good power, but had a preposterous 33/4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 112 at-bats. Big Xavier Batista showed a bit of power, but had an even more preposterous 54 strikeouts in 167 at-bats. Shawon Dunston, Jr. scuttled through his time at Boise with just a .254 on-base percentage, although he did begin his professional career with a solid showing in the rookie league where he showed good patience and some pop. Trey Martin played some good baseball between the rookie league and Boise, although he did little to give rise to much excitement as a 19-year-old with a .270/.318/.377/.696 line in Boise.
2013 and Beyond: Although Soriano has repeatedly stated his desire to close his career as a Cub, it is overwhelming more likely that his major contribution to the team comes in the form of a prospect or two that he brings to the organization in a mid-season trade. If Soriano is healthy, there is no reason he cannot produce another strong season with excellent power, little speed, and below-average on-base percentage. DeJesus may fit the same mold, although he will not be bringing back a return in a trade as a corner outfielder. With the club's addition of platoon mates Nate Schierholtz and Scott Hairston in right field, DeJesus will man center field full time. Schierholtz and Hairston are the ultimate platoon with both showing great offensive ability against opposite-handed pitching and futility against same-handed pitchers.
The most important development for the organization in 2013 will be that of Soler. If the athletic righty continue to shows the mature approach, strong defense, and good on-base ability that complements his powerful frame so well, he could push for a major league job in 2014. At just 20 in Daytona, he has room for error, but he does not appear to need it.
Overall Perception: This is an interesting if uninspiring position group. The major league corner outfielders complement each other nicely, even if none of them figure to be major contributors in a couple of years. Soler is an elite prospect, but beyond him the system is barren, save for Sappelt as a potential reserve.
Final Rating: 3.0
---------------------------------------------------
Previous entries
Third Base
Shortstop
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Chicago Bears: 2013 Team Needs
With the real start of NFL free agency looming, it's time for a look at what the Chicago Bears need to add this offseason in order to improve on last year's 10-6 mark.
*Note: I will rate the level of need on a scale of 0-10, with 0 representing the 2004 Philadelphia Phillies need for a first baseman (All-Star Jim Thome manning the spot with 2005 Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard knocking on the door) and 10 representing the 2003 Chicago Bears need to find a LT (Qasim Mitchell backing up Aaron Gibson).
1. Middle Linebacker
The reality of the Chicago Bears franchise is very simple: when a dominant middle linebacker is in the fold, the team experiences runs of success. When that player is lacking, the team struggles mightily. The Cover-2 defense - still the most common scheme employed by the team, a fact expected to continue under new defensive coordinator Mel Tucker - only functions with a middle linebacker who can cover wide swaths of the field. The player has to play sideline to sideline, make tackles, and get enough depth in passing situations to break up deep seam routes.
Brian Urlacher and Nick Roach, the two men who manned the spot in 2012, are both free agents. Urlacher is rapidly declining as his body is deteriorating at the end of a magnificent career. He should find himself in Canton in a few years. But his wonderful career history does not change the reality that he no longer resembles the strong force of the defense that he did for a decade. Roach, on the other hand, served as a capable replacement, but he seems likely to find a richer payday than this Bears team can afford.
Level of Need: 10
Possible Solutions: The Bears could choose to re-sign Urlacher or Roach, buying some time to the next long-term answer. If they choose free agency, Green Bay's Brad Jones appears to be the only viable solution as the other free agent middle linebackers tend to be old, run-stuffers, or both.
Should they look to the draft, Georgia's Alec Ogletree will likely be available with the team's top choice at #20. Notre Dame's Manti Te'o seemed like a potentially ideal fit, but his Combine showing has cast serious doubts on his ability to meet the pass coverage demands on the Cover-2. Even though the team does not have a third-round choice this year thanks to the Brandon Marshall acquisition, a fourth or even fifth-round pick could be used on a player like Oregon's Kiko Alonso or Florida's Jonathan Bostic.
Likeliest Outcome: The Bears find a way to fit Urlacher into the plan for another year. A mid-to-late draft choice is used on a depth player.
2. Left Tackle
Duh. The position has been a nightmare since John Tait retired. It's no secret that Jay Cutler's ability to survive a season intact has been significantly limited by a consistently porous offensive line. In the NFL, great lines start with great blindside protectors. While in many ways J'Marcus Webb is a success story as a seventh-round-pick from West Texas A&M, he is undeniably firmly entrenched in the bottom quartile of starting left tackles. It is clear that 2011's top pick Gabe Carimi will not be developing into a left tackle either, although that should not have been expected of the undersized former Badger.
The team is built to win now with a window that is rapidly closing as core defensive players push toward their mid-30s. It's time for an upgrade.
Level of Need: 9.5
Possible Solutions: It's possible to simply keep Webb in place, improving some of the other spots around him. Free agent Jake Long is the biggest fish on the market; interest from the Bears is a foregone conclusion. Two other top options - Denver's Ryan Clady and Kansas City's Branden Albert - were both slapped with the franchise tag, making them nearly untouchable. There are some adequate tackles that would probably represent an upgrade over Webb like Gosder Cherilus from the Lions and Jermon Bushrod of the Saints, but neither are worth the headache of the personnel change or worth the valuable cap space.
The draft offers a pair of elite names, both expected to go in the top-10: potential top pick Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M and Central Michigan's Eric Fisher. When the Bears draft twentieth, Oklahoma's Lane Johnson and Florida State's Manelik Watson should both be available, although Watson may be a bit of a reach. Mid-round prospects such as Oregon's Kyle Long and Virginia's Oday Aboushi represent longer term solutions, but either could slide inside to play guard immediately, an attractive feature for the needy Bears. LSU's Chris Faulk injured his knee at the beginning of the 2012 season, so he could slide and make for an interesting value selection, albeit one with injury concerns.
Likeliest Outcome: Webb still has the left tackle job to start the 2013 season, but he has a youngster pushing him for the job. I would not be surprised if the Bears completed a trade with a team like the 49ers - flush with picks, desperate to win the Super Bowl now - to move down from their first or second round pick in order to acquire a third-rounder to use on Long, Aboushi, or a comparable player.
3. Cornerback
Although I do not expect the Bears to use a particularly valuable asset to acquire depth at cornerback behind Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings, it is definitely needed. D.J. Moore is a lock to leave via free agency. Kelvin Hayden is again a free agent and effectively rebuilt his value on the market with a strong 2012 showing; it's uncertain whether he returns to the team in 2013. While two elite starters makes this area of need less severe than some others, the Bears spend a tremendous amount of time with three non-safety defensive backs on the field, so the third cornerback is more of a starter than the strong side linebacker despite the Bears nominally remaining a 4-3 team.
Level of Need: 8.0
Possible Solutions: Hayden could absolutely be re-signed. The free agent market only features a couple of starters complemented by a number of fringe starters, a great sign for the Bears. Players like the Colts's Jerraud Powers and San Diego's Antoine Cason litter the market, athletes who have not been able to nail down a starting gig.
Alabama's Dee Milliner is headed for top-10 and possibly top-5 selection and Florida State's Xavier Rhodes should stick in the first round. While those two are the only strong bets to be grabbed in the first round, every subsequent round features a glut of cornerbacks including possibly Bears targets including David Amerson from N.C. State in the second round and Wake Forest's Kenny Okoro in the fifth or sixth.
Likeliest Outcome: Given the needs along the offensive line, I expect Emery to fight to keep Hayden, bring in a low-level free agent, and also invest at least one mid-to-late choice on a cornerback.
4. Right Guard
Despite being forced into action at right tackle, Lance Louis has developed into a fine NFL guard. He has become very reliable in the run game, and, while he struggles at tackle in pass protection, he is certainly an adequate pass-blocking right guard. With Roberto Garza nearing retirement at age 33, the interior offensive line needs some consistency and Louis can provide that. Unfortunately, Louis suffered a season-ending MCL injury after a cheap shot from Minnesota's Jared Allen. Louis is a free agent.
Level of Need: 8.0
Possible Solutions: The easiest and most sensible move is for the team to re-sign Louis, hoping that he can return to start the 2013 season. Buffalo's Andy Levitre represents the top guard in free agency; as a left guard in Buffalo, he could certainly play either guard spot with the Bears and represent an enormous upgrade. San Diego's Louis Vasquez is not far behind Levitre as a great but expensive free agent option. Alternatively, if looking for a less expensive choice, the Bears could look at older options like the Jets's Brandon Moore or find a blocked backup like the Patriots's Donald Thomas.
Alabama's Chance Warmack represents one of the draft's best guard prospects in years and he should be a lock for the first round. If Warmack is available at #20, Phil Emery will find it very hard to pass on the mauler. North Carolina's Jonathan Cooper could be an intriguing option in the second round. Although he is seen as a smaller prospect, his blocking is crisp and he could move inside to play center if need be. Warmack's teammate Barrett Jones is tougher to peg as his versatility - Jones was an All-SEC performer at tackle, guard, and center - could send his draft stock soaring up above his value. In the second round or later, however, Jones would be a strong addition. The later rounds offer slower developing prospects like Florida's James Wilson or Ivy League prospect J.C. Tretter from Cornell.
Likeliest Outcome: The Bears can likely re-sign Louis on the cheap side due to his injury, spending more heavily elsewhere while absorbing some risk that Louis is not ready for the start of the season.
5. Left Guard
All of the same issues as right guard, except that the revolving door in 2012 was filled by the likes of colossal disappointment Chris Spencer and undrafted fillers James Brown and Edwin Williams. The issues at the guard spots are interchangeable.
Level of Need: 8.0
Possible Solutions: See above.
Likeliest Outcome: Assuming that Louis is re-signed to cover the right guard position, I expect the Bears to find a very cheap veteran to man left guard, someone like Oakland's Cooper Carlisle or Eben Britton from the Jaguars. It is just as likely that the team grabs a big-time tackle prospect in free agency or the draft, setting about a game of musical chairs for the offensive line positions. For example, if Jake Long is miraculously brought to Chicago, I could see a line of Long-Webb-Garza-Louis-Carimi. However, if the teams chooses Alabama's DJ Fluker to play him at right tackle, the line could be Webb-Carimi-Garza-Louis-Fluker. There are tons of interchangeable parts here. As a result, somewhat ironically, the likeliest outcome at each individual position on the offensive line does not represent the likeliest outcome for the five positions working together.
6. Tight End
As a Michigan-born, Michigan-raised Bears fan with numerous friends who cheer for Michigan State, I was excited to see what the extremely athletic Kellen Davis could do for the Bears. His first two years in Chicago were replete with moments of brightness, instilling only confidence about what he could do in a more open scheme and a full-time job. Unfortunately, KD was a horrendous flop last year, committing fumbles, dropping passes, and whiffing on blocks. A great tight end can be an integral piece of both the passing and rushing attacks; a poor tight end can stifle both. The Bears face a tough decision on Davis. They can let him play out the final year of his contract in 2013 with a cap hit of $3.85M and hope that the contract-year phenomenon works in their favor with a productive season. Or they can cut bait, suffering only a $1.35M cap hit (for $2.5M savings) and enjoying a chance to start over at the position. Matt Spaeth will likely continue to serve as a reliable backup, although he could also be cut ($333K hit; $1.625M savings) to free up some cash. The Bears gave fourth-rounder Evan Rodriguez almost no looks at tight end, but that could be part of his future even though he proved quite adept as a pulling fullback.
Level of Need: 7.5
*Note: 7.5 assumes that the Bears do not bring in an additional wide receiver to play the slot between Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. If they do bring in a third receiver, this drops to a 3.0.
Possible Solutions: Thankfully for the Bears, they will have a choice to make as free agency offers a quartet of viable options: the Giants's Martellus Bennett, the Jets's Dustin Keller, Oakland's Brandon Myers, and, the most intriguing, Tennessee's Jared Cook. The Bears have been linked to Cook already. At just 26 and with some dreadful quarterback play hurting his resume, Cook may be pricier than the Bears would like. However, if the tag is right, he could replace Davis immediately.
The draft likewise offers a few intriguing options. Two northerners, Notre Dame's Tyler Eifert and Michigan State's Dion Sims, could be early round selections, although Eifert is much more of a receiver while Sims is a blocker. Stanford's Zach Ertz is the top name available; he could start immediately as a three-down player. Finally, Florida's Jordan Reed represents the most wide receiver-esque option in the draft. He is essentially the tight end version of Percy Harvin, a tremendous athlete who may not thrive fully in a conventional scheme but excels on broken plays and in space.
Likeliest Outcome: I expect this to be the offensive position with the most turnover. I believe new GM Emery will cut Davis - a holdover from the Angelo regime - and make a splash, most likely with Cook. It's possible that, even with a new starter, Emery could use a later pick on a receiving-only player like UCLA's Joseph Fauria.
7. Quarterback
The Bears are married to Jay Cutler. In my view, that is a good thing as roughly half of the teams in the NFL would prefer Cutler to their own quarterback. Unfortunately, Cutler has taken quite a beating in Chicago, rendering his backup a disproportionately important player. Caleb Hanie failed fantastically in 2011 and Jason Campbell hardly thrilled Bears fans, particularly with his horrendous showing in San Francisco. Currently Cutler is the only quarterback on the roster.
Level of Need: 6.0
Possible Solutions: The Bears could re-sign Campbell who is likely resigned to his role as a backup now. Incredibly, Campbell appears to be the cream of the free agent quarterback crop. Uninspiring names like Brady Quinn are floating on the market, but no free agent backup inspires any confidence.
The draft's top quarterback, West Virginia's Geno Smith, could be available for the Bears at #20, but selecting him would be stunning. A number of less inspiring prospects like USC's Matt Barkley and Syracuse's Ryan Nassib are likely to come off the board in the second or third round, but it is possible that one of that tier could fall to the fourth or fifth.
Likeliest Outcome: There is a good chance that Campbell is re-signed, although the negotiations could be awkward as he deserves a pay cut. The likeliest individual move is the signing of a developmental rookie free agent.
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Let's also take a quick look at positions where need is low.
1. Safety
Chris Conte has grown into a very strong, well above-average NFL safety, showing prowess as a big hitter in the passing game and improving his tackling dramatically. Major Wright has proved to be a solid, average contributor. But safety is not an area of need thanks to last year's third-round pick, Brandon Hardin, returning from a year on Injured Reserve. Long an area of desperate need, safety is finally a position of strength.
2. Kicker
Robbie Gould is a free agent following the 2013 season, but he has been a reliably strong kicker for his entire Bears career and it seems unlikely that the team will be looking for a new kicker any time soon.
3. Punter
Adam Podlesh has been inconsistent in his time in Chicago, but he has shown a solid ability to kick in the cold months along Lake Michigan. While he certainly lacks a booming leg, his angled kicks with great hang time have resulted in very few punts being returned at all, let alone punts being returned for large gains.
4. Defensive End
The Bears will likely need to find another defensive end next offseason, but even with the constant rotating of players along the defensive front, the teams should be just fine in 2013 with the current crop. Julius Peppers continued his stellar play in 2012, although his 2013 cap number of $16.2M climbs to $17.2M in 2014 and finally $19.7M in 2015. It's difficult to envision Peppers sticking around to see that 2015 payday. Thankfully, Corey Wootton finally showed the form that had many thinking he would be a first-round draft pick before injuring his knee in college. Shea McClellin showed plenty of pass rushing flashes, although he looks increasingly like an ideal 3-4 outside linebacker more so than a good fit anywhere in a 4-3. It's possible that his pass rushing will be good enough that he can play every down, but improvements in rush defense are still needed. Israel Idonije was a great contributor in 2012, but he can probably get himself one more solid guaranteed sum in a contract, a deal likely to come from a team outside of Chicago due to the Bears's cap situation.
5. Defensive Tackle
Henry Melton finally played the explosive season I had been hoping to see in 2012. The team wisely applied the franchise tag to Melton, a move that was only necessary after it foolishly allowed him to play out the final year of his rookie contract while simultaneously on the cusp of the elite tier of NFL defensive tackles. 2011 second-rounder Stephen Paea showed nice improvements as a sophomore and can likely be counted on to bring more to the table in 2013. The 1-2 punch certainly needs a third tackle to spell them, but compared to the other areas of need on the team, third defensive tackle is exceptionally low.
6. Outside Linebacker
The Bears definitely need somebody who can play alongside Lance Briggs and whoever mans middle linebacker. It's just that this player is decreasingly important in a league where nickel packages have become the norm. This is also true for the Bears. Briggs continues to be a dominant force on the weak side and the team has adequately filled the strong side role for the last decade with a revolving door of players like Hunter Hillenmeyer, Pisa Tinoisamoa, Nick Roach, and even Geno Hayes. This kind of player just is not terribly difficult to find.
7. Wide Receiver
A position of need for my entire life, Emery decided that, to be a functioning offense in the 21st century, the Bears needed a couple of new, big receivers. With Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall manning the outside and Earl Bennett fitting into the correct role as a great #3 receiver instead of overmatched as a #2 receiver, the corps is in great shape. Eric Weems can fill in from time to time, but mostly focuses on being a special teams ace. The team could take a late flyer on an athlete like Michigan's Denard Robinson or TCU's Josh Boyce, but there is no need here.
8. Center
Although Roberto Garza is on the down slope of his career and acquiring a center-of-the-future certainly makes sense this offseason, he is still solid enough that replacing him is not necessary. It is possible that Garza will not be brought back when his contract expires after this season, but he will have a starting job waiting for him in August.
9. Right Tackle
It seems strange to have this position listed in the "low need" section, but it is the proper rating. If (when) the team acquires a new left tackle, J'Marcus Webb should be moved to right tackle where he should be more of an asset than a liability. With Gabe Carimi also in the fold, right tackle would be set. This is not to say that I would be upset if the team added a strong right tackle by signing Minnesota's Phil Loadholt or drafting Alabama's DJ Fluker; either addition would be fantastic. I just do not expect this situation to play out this way.
10. Running Back
Matt Forte just signed a long-term extension and backup Michael Bush looked strong in the first year of a four-year deal prior to an injury last season. Nothing more than the minimum should be spent on the third back here.
*Note: I will rate the level of need on a scale of 0-10, with 0 representing the 2004 Philadelphia Phillies need for a first baseman (All-Star Jim Thome manning the spot with 2005 Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard knocking on the door) and 10 representing the 2003 Chicago Bears need to find a LT (Qasim Mitchell backing up Aaron Gibson).
1. Middle Linebacker
The reality of the Chicago Bears franchise is very simple: when a dominant middle linebacker is in the fold, the team experiences runs of success. When that player is lacking, the team struggles mightily. The Cover-2 defense - still the most common scheme employed by the team, a fact expected to continue under new defensive coordinator Mel Tucker - only functions with a middle linebacker who can cover wide swaths of the field. The player has to play sideline to sideline, make tackles, and get enough depth in passing situations to break up deep seam routes.
Brian Urlacher and Nick Roach, the two men who manned the spot in 2012, are both free agents. Urlacher is rapidly declining as his body is deteriorating at the end of a magnificent career. He should find himself in Canton in a few years. But his wonderful career history does not change the reality that he no longer resembles the strong force of the defense that he did for a decade. Roach, on the other hand, served as a capable replacement, but he seems likely to find a richer payday than this Bears team can afford.
Level of Need: 10
Possible Solutions: The Bears could choose to re-sign Urlacher or Roach, buying some time to the next long-term answer. If they choose free agency, Green Bay's Brad Jones appears to be the only viable solution as the other free agent middle linebackers tend to be old, run-stuffers, or both.
Should they look to the draft, Georgia's Alec Ogletree will likely be available with the team's top choice at #20. Notre Dame's Manti Te'o seemed like a potentially ideal fit, but his Combine showing has cast serious doubts on his ability to meet the pass coverage demands on the Cover-2. Even though the team does not have a third-round choice this year thanks to the Brandon Marshall acquisition, a fourth or even fifth-round pick could be used on a player like Oregon's Kiko Alonso or Florida's Jonathan Bostic.
Likeliest Outcome: The Bears find a way to fit Urlacher into the plan for another year. A mid-to-late draft choice is used on a depth player.
2. Left Tackle
Duh. The position has been a nightmare since John Tait retired. It's no secret that Jay Cutler's ability to survive a season intact has been significantly limited by a consistently porous offensive line. In the NFL, great lines start with great blindside protectors. While in many ways J'Marcus Webb is a success story as a seventh-round-pick from West Texas A&M, he is undeniably firmly entrenched in the bottom quartile of starting left tackles. It is clear that 2011's top pick Gabe Carimi will not be developing into a left tackle either, although that should not have been expected of the undersized former Badger.
The team is built to win now with a window that is rapidly closing as core defensive players push toward their mid-30s. It's time for an upgrade.
Level of Need: 9.5
Possible Solutions: It's possible to simply keep Webb in place, improving some of the other spots around him. Free agent Jake Long is the biggest fish on the market; interest from the Bears is a foregone conclusion. Two other top options - Denver's Ryan Clady and Kansas City's Branden Albert - were both slapped with the franchise tag, making them nearly untouchable. There are some adequate tackles that would probably represent an upgrade over Webb like Gosder Cherilus from the Lions and Jermon Bushrod of the Saints, but neither are worth the headache of the personnel change or worth the valuable cap space.
The draft offers a pair of elite names, both expected to go in the top-10: potential top pick Luke Joeckel from Texas A&M and Central Michigan's Eric Fisher. When the Bears draft twentieth, Oklahoma's Lane Johnson and Florida State's Manelik Watson should both be available, although Watson may be a bit of a reach. Mid-round prospects such as Oregon's Kyle Long and Virginia's Oday Aboushi represent longer term solutions, but either could slide inside to play guard immediately, an attractive feature for the needy Bears. LSU's Chris Faulk injured his knee at the beginning of the 2012 season, so he could slide and make for an interesting value selection, albeit one with injury concerns.
Likeliest Outcome: Webb still has the left tackle job to start the 2013 season, but he has a youngster pushing him for the job. I would not be surprised if the Bears completed a trade with a team like the 49ers - flush with picks, desperate to win the Super Bowl now - to move down from their first or second round pick in order to acquire a third-rounder to use on Long, Aboushi, or a comparable player.
3. Cornerback
Although I do not expect the Bears to use a particularly valuable asset to acquire depth at cornerback behind Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings, it is definitely needed. D.J. Moore is a lock to leave via free agency. Kelvin Hayden is again a free agent and effectively rebuilt his value on the market with a strong 2012 showing; it's uncertain whether he returns to the team in 2013. While two elite starters makes this area of need less severe than some others, the Bears spend a tremendous amount of time with three non-safety defensive backs on the field, so the third cornerback is more of a starter than the strong side linebacker despite the Bears nominally remaining a 4-3 team.
Level of Need: 8.0
Possible Solutions: Hayden could absolutely be re-signed. The free agent market only features a couple of starters complemented by a number of fringe starters, a great sign for the Bears. Players like the Colts's Jerraud Powers and San Diego's Antoine Cason litter the market, athletes who have not been able to nail down a starting gig.
Alabama's Dee Milliner is headed for top-10 and possibly top-5 selection and Florida State's Xavier Rhodes should stick in the first round. While those two are the only strong bets to be grabbed in the first round, every subsequent round features a glut of cornerbacks including possibly Bears targets including David Amerson from N.C. State in the second round and Wake Forest's Kenny Okoro in the fifth or sixth.
Likeliest Outcome: Given the needs along the offensive line, I expect Emery to fight to keep Hayden, bring in a low-level free agent, and also invest at least one mid-to-late choice on a cornerback.
4. Right Guard
Despite being forced into action at right tackle, Lance Louis has developed into a fine NFL guard. He has become very reliable in the run game, and, while he struggles at tackle in pass protection, he is certainly an adequate pass-blocking right guard. With Roberto Garza nearing retirement at age 33, the interior offensive line needs some consistency and Louis can provide that. Unfortunately, Louis suffered a season-ending MCL injury after a cheap shot from Minnesota's Jared Allen. Louis is a free agent.
Level of Need: 8.0
Possible Solutions: The easiest and most sensible move is for the team to re-sign Louis, hoping that he can return to start the 2013 season. Buffalo's Andy Levitre represents the top guard in free agency; as a left guard in Buffalo, he could certainly play either guard spot with the Bears and represent an enormous upgrade. San Diego's Louis Vasquez is not far behind Levitre as a great but expensive free agent option. Alternatively, if looking for a less expensive choice, the Bears could look at older options like the Jets's Brandon Moore or find a blocked backup like the Patriots's Donald Thomas.
Alabama's Chance Warmack represents one of the draft's best guard prospects in years and he should be a lock for the first round. If Warmack is available at #20, Phil Emery will find it very hard to pass on the mauler. North Carolina's Jonathan Cooper could be an intriguing option in the second round. Although he is seen as a smaller prospect, his blocking is crisp and he could move inside to play center if need be. Warmack's teammate Barrett Jones is tougher to peg as his versatility - Jones was an All-SEC performer at tackle, guard, and center - could send his draft stock soaring up above his value. In the second round or later, however, Jones would be a strong addition. The later rounds offer slower developing prospects like Florida's James Wilson or Ivy League prospect J.C. Tretter from Cornell.
Likeliest Outcome: The Bears can likely re-sign Louis on the cheap side due to his injury, spending more heavily elsewhere while absorbing some risk that Louis is not ready for the start of the season.
5. Left Guard
All of the same issues as right guard, except that the revolving door in 2012 was filled by the likes of colossal disappointment Chris Spencer and undrafted fillers James Brown and Edwin Williams. The issues at the guard spots are interchangeable.
Level of Need: 8.0
Possible Solutions: See above.
Likeliest Outcome: Assuming that Louis is re-signed to cover the right guard position, I expect the Bears to find a very cheap veteran to man left guard, someone like Oakland's Cooper Carlisle or Eben Britton from the Jaguars. It is just as likely that the team grabs a big-time tackle prospect in free agency or the draft, setting about a game of musical chairs for the offensive line positions. For example, if Jake Long is miraculously brought to Chicago, I could see a line of Long-Webb-Garza-Louis-Carimi. However, if the teams chooses Alabama's DJ Fluker to play him at right tackle, the line could be Webb-Carimi-Garza-Louis-Fluker. There are tons of interchangeable parts here. As a result, somewhat ironically, the likeliest outcome at each individual position on the offensive line does not represent the likeliest outcome for the five positions working together.
6. Tight End
As a Michigan-born, Michigan-raised Bears fan with numerous friends who cheer for Michigan State, I was excited to see what the extremely athletic Kellen Davis could do for the Bears. His first two years in Chicago were replete with moments of brightness, instilling only confidence about what he could do in a more open scheme and a full-time job. Unfortunately, KD was a horrendous flop last year, committing fumbles, dropping passes, and whiffing on blocks. A great tight end can be an integral piece of both the passing and rushing attacks; a poor tight end can stifle both. The Bears face a tough decision on Davis. They can let him play out the final year of his contract in 2013 with a cap hit of $3.85M and hope that the contract-year phenomenon works in their favor with a productive season. Or they can cut bait, suffering only a $1.35M cap hit (for $2.5M savings) and enjoying a chance to start over at the position. Matt Spaeth will likely continue to serve as a reliable backup, although he could also be cut ($333K hit; $1.625M savings) to free up some cash. The Bears gave fourth-rounder Evan Rodriguez almost no looks at tight end, but that could be part of his future even though he proved quite adept as a pulling fullback.
Level of Need: 7.5
*Note: 7.5 assumes that the Bears do not bring in an additional wide receiver to play the slot between Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. If they do bring in a third receiver, this drops to a 3.0.
Possible Solutions: Thankfully for the Bears, they will have a choice to make as free agency offers a quartet of viable options: the Giants's Martellus Bennett, the Jets's Dustin Keller, Oakland's Brandon Myers, and, the most intriguing, Tennessee's Jared Cook. The Bears have been linked to Cook already. At just 26 and with some dreadful quarterback play hurting his resume, Cook may be pricier than the Bears would like. However, if the tag is right, he could replace Davis immediately.
The draft likewise offers a few intriguing options. Two northerners, Notre Dame's Tyler Eifert and Michigan State's Dion Sims, could be early round selections, although Eifert is much more of a receiver while Sims is a blocker. Stanford's Zach Ertz is the top name available; he could start immediately as a three-down player. Finally, Florida's Jordan Reed represents the most wide receiver-esque option in the draft. He is essentially the tight end version of Percy Harvin, a tremendous athlete who may not thrive fully in a conventional scheme but excels on broken plays and in space.
Likeliest Outcome: I expect this to be the offensive position with the most turnover. I believe new GM Emery will cut Davis - a holdover from the Angelo regime - and make a splash, most likely with Cook. It's possible that, even with a new starter, Emery could use a later pick on a receiving-only player like UCLA's Joseph Fauria.
7. Quarterback
The Bears are married to Jay Cutler. In my view, that is a good thing as roughly half of the teams in the NFL would prefer Cutler to their own quarterback. Unfortunately, Cutler has taken quite a beating in Chicago, rendering his backup a disproportionately important player. Caleb Hanie failed fantastically in 2011 and Jason Campbell hardly thrilled Bears fans, particularly with his horrendous showing in San Francisco. Currently Cutler is the only quarterback on the roster.
Level of Need: 6.0
Possible Solutions: The Bears could re-sign Campbell who is likely resigned to his role as a backup now. Incredibly, Campbell appears to be the cream of the free agent quarterback crop. Uninspiring names like Brady Quinn are floating on the market, but no free agent backup inspires any confidence.
The draft's top quarterback, West Virginia's Geno Smith, could be available for the Bears at #20, but selecting him would be stunning. A number of less inspiring prospects like USC's Matt Barkley and Syracuse's Ryan Nassib are likely to come off the board in the second or third round, but it is possible that one of that tier could fall to the fourth or fifth.
Likeliest Outcome: There is a good chance that Campbell is re-signed, although the negotiations could be awkward as he deserves a pay cut. The likeliest individual move is the signing of a developmental rookie free agent.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's also take a quick look at positions where need is low.
1. Safety
Chris Conte has grown into a very strong, well above-average NFL safety, showing prowess as a big hitter in the passing game and improving his tackling dramatically. Major Wright has proved to be a solid, average contributor. But safety is not an area of need thanks to last year's third-round pick, Brandon Hardin, returning from a year on Injured Reserve. Long an area of desperate need, safety is finally a position of strength.
2. Kicker
Robbie Gould is a free agent following the 2013 season, but he has been a reliably strong kicker for his entire Bears career and it seems unlikely that the team will be looking for a new kicker any time soon.
3. Punter
Adam Podlesh has been inconsistent in his time in Chicago, but he has shown a solid ability to kick in the cold months along Lake Michigan. While he certainly lacks a booming leg, his angled kicks with great hang time have resulted in very few punts being returned at all, let alone punts being returned for large gains.
4. Defensive End
The Bears will likely need to find another defensive end next offseason, but even with the constant rotating of players along the defensive front, the teams should be just fine in 2013 with the current crop. Julius Peppers continued his stellar play in 2012, although his 2013 cap number of $16.2M climbs to $17.2M in 2014 and finally $19.7M in 2015. It's difficult to envision Peppers sticking around to see that 2015 payday. Thankfully, Corey Wootton finally showed the form that had many thinking he would be a first-round draft pick before injuring his knee in college. Shea McClellin showed plenty of pass rushing flashes, although he looks increasingly like an ideal 3-4 outside linebacker more so than a good fit anywhere in a 4-3. It's possible that his pass rushing will be good enough that he can play every down, but improvements in rush defense are still needed. Israel Idonije was a great contributor in 2012, but he can probably get himself one more solid guaranteed sum in a contract, a deal likely to come from a team outside of Chicago due to the Bears's cap situation.
5. Defensive Tackle
Henry Melton finally played the explosive season I had been hoping to see in 2012. The team wisely applied the franchise tag to Melton, a move that was only necessary after it foolishly allowed him to play out the final year of his rookie contract while simultaneously on the cusp of the elite tier of NFL defensive tackles. 2011 second-rounder Stephen Paea showed nice improvements as a sophomore and can likely be counted on to bring more to the table in 2013. The 1-2 punch certainly needs a third tackle to spell them, but compared to the other areas of need on the team, third defensive tackle is exceptionally low.
6. Outside Linebacker
The Bears definitely need somebody who can play alongside Lance Briggs and whoever mans middle linebacker. It's just that this player is decreasingly important in a league where nickel packages have become the norm. This is also true for the Bears. Briggs continues to be a dominant force on the weak side and the team has adequately filled the strong side role for the last decade with a revolving door of players like Hunter Hillenmeyer, Pisa Tinoisamoa, Nick Roach, and even Geno Hayes. This kind of player just is not terribly difficult to find.
7. Wide Receiver
A position of need for my entire life, Emery decided that, to be a functioning offense in the 21st century, the Bears needed a couple of new, big receivers. With Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall manning the outside and Earl Bennett fitting into the correct role as a great #3 receiver instead of overmatched as a #2 receiver, the corps is in great shape. Eric Weems can fill in from time to time, but mostly focuses on being a special teams ace. The team could take a late flyer on an athlete like Michigan's Denard Robinson or TCU's Josh Boyce, but there is no need here.
8. Center
Although Roberto Garza is on the down slope of his career and acquiring a center-of-the-future certainly makes sense this offseason, he is still solid enough that replacing him is not necessary. It is possible that Garza will not be brought back when his contract expires after this season, but he will have a starting job waiting for him in August.
9. Right Tackle
It seems strange to have this position listed in the "low need" section, but it is the proper rating. If (when) the team acquires a new left tackle, J'Marcus Webb should be moved to right tackle where he should be more of an asset than a liability. With Gabe Carimi also in the fold, right tackle would be set. This is not to say that I would be upset if the team added a strong right tackle by signing Minnesota's Phil Loadholt or drafting Alabama's DJ Fluker; either addition would be fantastic. I just do not expect this situation to play out this way.
10. Running Back
Matt Forte just signed a long-term extension and backup Michael Bush looked strong in the first year of a four-year deal prior to an injury last season. Nothing more than the minimum should be spent on the third back here.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Chicago Cubs: The Shortstops
Shortstop
2012 Overview: Whereas third base experienced abject failure in 2012, shortstop was mercifully a very different story. Unsurprisingly, it all begins with Starlin Castro. Castro stumbled through the worst season of his professional career, turning in a career low batting average and on-base percentage while simultaneously recording his highest strikeout rate since Rookie ball in 2008. Sounds like he was quite poor. In reality, Castro's underwhelming 2012 is just a testament to the absurd success of his 2010 and 2011 campaigns. Castro produced a .283/.323/.430/.753 line with 25 stolen bases, 14 home runs, and a .147 ISO. Put together, Castro managed a 99 wRC+, almost perfectly average among all MLB players. His defense continued to improve as he was just one run below average at shortstop. For an age-22 season, it was yet another rousing success.
Non-prospect Diory Hernandez manned the position for most of 2012 at Iowa and the 28-year-old was predictably awful. Jonathan Mota got a few cracks in at Iowa and at Tennessee, but he suffered an elbow injury and missed most of the year. He offers only organizational depth.
A much more exciting prospect, Junior Lake was the primary shortstop in Tennessee and he continued to polarize fans and scouts with his 2012 year. The knock on Lake has routinely been that his game is "noisy" in that he has a lot of unnecessary movement while at the plate and his mechanics while fielding at shortstop are messy. Regardless, Castro's friend spent his full 22-year-old season at Tennessee producing a .279/.341/.432/.773 line with 10 home runs, 21 stolen bases and a strong 117 wRC+. He kept on rolling in the Dominican Winter League with a .312/.382/.474/.856 line, 5 home runs, and 11 stolen bases in 44 games. The 6'3", 215 lbs. athlete was recently moved to third base moving forward and he will likely get some time in the outfield. Additionally, some have called for a move to the bullpen so that the team can utilize his electric arm. Regardless of his role, Lake is an intriguing player to watch in that he could just as easily spend a decade playing next to Castro as he could never make it to Chicago.
The run of interesting prospects continued at Daytona with Arismendy Alcantara. Alcantara played all of 2012 at just 20 years old and managed a very strong .302/.339/.447/.786 line with 7 home runs and 25 stolen bases in just 29 attempts. The lean switch-hitter should fill out his 5'10" frame a bit more, but he will likely never develop a power component to his game, so he will need to survive on strong batting average, some speed, and his glove.
2012 32nd-round-pick Timothy Saunders had an impressive debut as a professional. The Division III Marietta College star who led his college to back-to-back National Championships breezed through the Rookie League on his way to Peoria and even a couple of weeks at Daytona. He put together an explosive .381/.431/.536/.967 line with 5 home runs and 17 stolen bases in just 49 games. He will need to reproduce strong numbers to develop more believers, but a hot start is always encouraging.
The team's 2011 top choice, Javier Baez did not disappoint in his full-season league debut, obliterating Midwest League pitching to the tune of .333/.383/.596/.979 with 12 home runs and 20 steals in just 57 games. He struggled to close out his season at Daytona, but the strong showing from the then-19-year-old at Peoria did nothing to dim his very bright prospect star.
2012 7th-round-pick Stephen Bruno didn't make it out of the Northwest League, but he certainly made his time there count, winning the batting title with a .361/.442/.496/.938 showing in 67 games. Unfortunately, Bruno showed very little power and no speed, so he will need his batting average to carry him in his career.
Finally, after a great showing in the Rookie League in 2011, Marco Hernandez regressed dramatically in 2012 with only a .660 OPS to show for his efforts. Given the competition in the system, Hernandez's glove will need to be exceptional to advance.
Non-prospect Diory Hernandez manned the position for most of 2012 at Iowa and the 28-year-old was predictably awful. Jonathan Mota got a few cracks in at Iowa and at Tennessee, but he suffered an elbow injury and missed most of the year. He offers only organizational depth.
A much more exciting prospect, Junior Lake was the primary shortstop in Tennessee and he continued to polarize fans and scouts with his 2012 year. The knock on Lake has routinely been that his game is "noisy" in that he has a lot of unnecessary movement while at the plate and his mechanics while fielding at shortstop are messy. Regardless, Castro's friend spent his full 22-year-old season at Tennessee producing a .279/.341/.432/.773 line with 10 home runs, 21 stolen bases and a strong 117 wRC+. He kept on rolling in the Dominican Winter League with a .312/.382/.474/.856 line, 5 home runs, and 11 stolen bases in 44 games. The 6'3", 215 lbs. athlete was recently moved to third base moving forward and he will likely get some time in the outfield. Additionally, some have called for a move to the bullpen so that the team can utilize his electric arm. Regardless of his role, Lake is an intriguing player to watch in that he could just as easily spend a decade playing next to Castro as he could never make it to Chicago.
The run of interesting prospects continued at Daytona with Arismendy Alcantara. Alcantara played all of 2012 at just 20 years old and managed a very strong .302/.339/.447/.786 line with 7 home runs and 25 stolen bases in just 29 attempts. The lean switch-hitter should fill out his 5'10" frame a bit more, but he will likely never develop a power component to his game, so he will need to survive on strong batting average, some speed, and his glove.
2012 32nd-round-pick Timothy Saunders had an impressive debut as a professional. The Division III Marietta College star who led his college to back-to-back National Championships breezed through the Rookie League on his way to Peoria and even a couple of weeks at Daytona. He put together an explosive .381/.431/.536/.967 line with 5 home runs and 17 stolen bases in just 49 games. He will need to reproduce strong numbers to develop more believers, but a hot start is always encouraging.
The team's 2011 top choice, Javier Baez did not disappoint in his full-season league debut, obliterating Midwest League pitching to the tune of .333/.383/.596/.979 with 12 home runs and 20 steals in just 57 games. He struggled to close out his season at Daytona, but the strong showing from the then-19-year-old at Peoria did nothing to dim his very bright prospect star.
2012 7th-round-pick Stephen Bruno didn't make it out of the Northwest League, but he certainly made his time there count, winning the batting title with a .361/.442/.496/.938 showing in 67 games. Unfortunately, Bruno showed very little power and no speed, so he will need his batting average to carry him in his career.
Finally, after a great showing in the Rookie League in 2011, Marco Hernandez regressed dramatically in 2012 with only a .660 OPS to show for his efforts. Given the competition in the system, Hernandez's glove will need to be exceptional to advance.
2013 and Beyond: Castro has showed yet again that his success is legitimate and he is here to stay. With a 7-year, $60M extension that keeps him under team control through at least 2019 (2020 club option), Cubs fans should get used to watching Castro blossom. Lake presents a more interesting follow as he has so many potential situations in which to find himself a year from now: preparing for a full-time infield role with the Cubs, fighting for a backup job, knocking on the door at AAA, or learning to pitch. There are so many possibilities. Saunders's debut was so strong that his 2013 bears monitoring to see if he truly is a diamond in the rough or simply enjoyed a hot pair of months as a collegiate rookie.
While the other names carry some interest, the most important player in the minors is Baez, certainly among the shortstops and possibly for the entire organization. His bat is extremely loud and could hold 25+ home run power in addition to high batting average. He will need to develop a more complete approach at the plate. If that part of his game comes along, he will remain on track to be a monstrous, middle-of-the-order bat from a non-first base infield position as early as 2015.
While the other names carry some interest, the most important player in the minors is Baez, certainly among the shortstops and possibly for the entire organization. His bat is extremely loud and could hold 25+ home run power in addition to high batting average. He will need to develop a more complete approach at the plate. If that part of his game comes along, he will remain on track to be a monstrous, middle-of-the-order bat from a non-first base infield position as early as 2015.
Overall Perception: An emerging young star in Chicago, an elite prospect at Daytona, and a couple of interesting raw prospects? This is about as good as it gets.
Final Rating: 9.5
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