What If the Cubs Spend Like a Big Market Team This Winter?

General Manager Jed Hoyer sang beautiful music to the ears of long-suffering Cubs fans today when he expressed a desire to add veterans to the roster to supplement the team's emerging youth movement. The addition of legitimate major league talent is needed and welcome.

Some folks think that this likely means the addition of a mid-tier free agent on a short- or medium-term deal such as platoon OF Seth Smith or perhaps SP Brandon McCarthy. Smith would be an excellent offensive partner for Justin Ruggiano in an outfield corner and McCarthy would be a solid addition, provided that his impossible 21.4% HR/FB% dropped.

But there's no sense in thinking small. Let's think big. Like really big.

I've thrown around some trade ideas in recent weeks in various places (if the Marlins fall back, would they take OF Albert Almora, OF Jorge Soler, 2B/UTIL Arismendy Alcantara, and RP C.J. Edwards for OF Giancarlo Stanton? They'd certainly consider the deal), but I've long been a proponent of signing talent, viewing trades as an inefficient transfer of talent: given the option, why trade young talent to acquire older talent when you can just acquire older talent for cash? The notion of the overpay grinds me. First off, it's not any of our money except for the Ricketts family. Second, we're among the five richest clubs in the sport. And third, is it really an overpay to spend $25M per year on Masahiro Tanaka when David Price would cost you $23M per year plus four of your best prospects? That question answers itself.

So let's imagine a 2014-15 offseason in which the Cubs decide that their time has come to supplement the youth movement with marquee veteran acquisitions. Sure, these contracts will almost certainly end up being less efficient that having the first six years of Kris Bryant's career filling all eight spots in the lineup or having a rotation with five Sonny Grays, but this roster is attainable within the parameters of reasonable spending for the Cubs without mortgaging the future in any way.

Without further adieu, imagine the following transactions and the excitement that they would generate:

Transaction #1: Cubs trade SP Jason Hammel and 3B Christian Villanueva to Milwaukee Brewers for OF Tyrone Taylor and RP Taylor Williams
Why Milwaukee Does It: The Brewers are sitting atop the NL Central on the strength of a great offense, but their starting pitching ranks 28th in MLB in WAR with Marco Estrada's -0.6 WAR particularly damning; he was recently lifted from the rotation to make way for 25-year-old prospect Jimmy Nelson. Hammel would be a solid upgrade for a rotation in need of his steadying presence. Villanueva gives them a second division 3B prospect to step in for Aramis Ramirez, a free agent at year's end. Taylor and Williams are both years away from helping, with Taylor still very raw and Williams likely headed to the bullpen.
Why the Cubs Do It: Hammel is producing extremely well right now. Too well. He doesn't figure to stay this strong and when he regresses, he's just a guy three months from free agency. He doesn't fit the medium- or long-term plan, so extracting value makes sense. Villanueva is completely superfluous given Bryant and even Javier Baez pushing him for the 3B job in addition to Luis Valbuena and even the remains of Mike Olt's bat. Taylor gives the Cubs an athletic CF candidate who needs lots of work and time while Williams fits the mold of undersized righty likely destined for the bullpen with big stuff.
Closing Thought: The basic idea is to trade Hammel for a decent return. I suspect that this will happen relatively soon.

Transaction #2: Cubs sign SP Jeff Samardzija to 6 year, $110M extension covering 2015-20 seasons sometime prior to late October (assume $10M in Y1, then $20M each year thereafter)
Why Samardzija Does It: This is a lot of money. This deal gives him effectively the market rate in covering five free agent years for ages 31-35. That's tough to pass up. He's a NW Indiana kid who should be attracted to the idea of being around when the win totals push into the 90s.
Why the Cubs Do It: Simply put, Samardzija has blossomed into what the Cubs dreamed he would. Maybe he's not quite an ace, but he's an excellent #2 on a championship club with superb pitches who continually shows increased aptitude when it comes to pitching. By all accounts, he's a well-liked teammate and the Cubs need to find top-end pitching somewhere. It's sitting right under their noses.
Closing Thought: Trading Samardzija just doesn't make all that much sense with so many huge offensive pieces close to arriving.

Transaction #3: Cubs sign SP James Shields to 4 year, $80M contract covering the 2015-18 seasons with a mutual option for 2019 (something like $25M option, $4M buyout)
Why Shields Does It: Cash money! And the Cubs are on the rise while the Royals have stagnated. Shields needs a team that can win in the next couple of years if he's going to find a ring.
Why the Cubs Do It: Max Scherzer has never posted a groundball rate above 42%, being under 37% for the last three years. While that works in cavernous Comerica Park, it's less likely to succeed in Chicago. Shields, on the other hand, has the complete package: a solid strikeout rate (7.73/9), an excellent walk rate (2.18/9), a reasonable home run rate that has been good for three years, and an xFIP between 3.24 and 3.72 for the last five years. Everyone wants younger guys; the old guys are about to become the next market inefficiency and the Cubs pounce.
Closing Thought: Shields relies most heavily on his cutter and his changeup, throwing just 40% fastballs. He should age well and the Oliver projection system loves him just as much as Scherzer even though the market is likely to dictate much less for Shields.

Transaction #4: Cubs sign SP Jon Lester to 5 year, $120M contract covering the 2015-19 seasons
Why Lester Does It: This only works if he feels slighted by the Boston front office and feels some affinity for Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod. I have to imagine that they can sell him on their ability to build a winner with him anchoring the pitching staff.
Why the Cubs Do It: This is the signing that makes less sense on paper than any other as Lester would be paid for his ages 31-35 seasons while he has been a steady, non-star performer for ages 27-30. Lester gets lots of bonus points for the intangibles/leadership/experience/playoff success jumble of hard-to-quantify value.
Closing Thought: Lester is just a good pitcher who should age reasonably well as his walk rate has been dropping for years and his fastball velocity is holding relatively steady at 92. He's very attractive for quantifiable and non-quantifiable reasons.

Transaction #5: Cubs sign OF Seth Smith to 2 year, $15M contract covering the 2015-16 seasons
Why Smith Does It: Smith turns 32 in September and has made just under $12M in his career. This is a big payday. It's possible that something will give him significantly more, but even a big spike in production this year can't hide the fact that he's clearly a platoon outfielder with serious splits.
Why the Cubs Do It: To buy some time for Soler and Almora and to infuse the lineup with some additional on-base ability. Plus, with so many early-to-mid-20s bats filling the lineup, Smith could provide some day-to-day leadership.
Closing Thought: I love thoughtful platoons.

That's five big transactions: one trade, one extension, and three free agent splashes. I certainly don't expect the Cubs to pull off these exact moves, but I think that it's important to evaluate what exactly such an offseason would mean (and regular season trade in the case of Hammel). Provided that these moves were made, here is the approximate 2015 roster by mid-April when Baez, Bryant, and Alcantara can all be called up without attaining a full year of service time:

Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester - $24M
Jeff Samardzija - $10M
James Shields - $20M
Jake Arrieta - 1.8M (approx)
Edwin Jackson - $11M

Analysis: That rotation is superb...and it better be for $66.8M next year. Travis Wood finds himself homeless two years removed from an All-Star appearance. Wood can slot in as the long man in the bullpen or he can be traded with Kyle Hendricks assuming the role of the sixth starter. Whereas Arrieta appears to have turned a corner, Wood is staring down his fourth straight year with his xFIP in the neighborhood of 4.50. Meh.

Relief Pitchers
Hector Rondon - $0.52M (approx)
Neil Ramirez - $0.52M (approx)
Justin Grimm - $0.52M (approx)
Arodys Vizcaino - $0.53M (approx)
Pedro Strop - $1.9M (approx)
Wesley Wright - $1.8M (approx)
Brian Schlitter - $0.52M (approx)

Analysis: For just $6.31M, that's one heckuva bullpen. There's some solid depth with the wave of pitching prospects ready to make noise and the likes of Zac Rosscup, Blake Parker, and James Russell lurking for jobs. We've got plenty of arms and with Rondon and Ramirez both looking incredibly sharp, the arrow is decidedly pointing up.

Catchers
Welington Castillo - $2.9M (approx)
Rafael Lopez - $0.51M (approx)

Analysis: This remains the clear weak link in the organization, although Castillo is an average starter and just $3.41M on the position group keeps the price right.

Infielders
Starlin Castro - $6M
Anthony Rizzo - $5M
Kris Bryant - $0.52M (approx)
Javier Baez - $0.52M (approx)
Luis Valbuena - $2.2M (approx)
Logan Watkins - $0.52M (approx)

Analysis: Valbuena has played his way into a valuable utility/bench role with some strong defense, tremendous walking, and now some batting average too. But this infield should go, from right to left, Rizzo, Castro/Baez, Baez/Castro, and Bryant. Wowzers. $14.76M gets the group in 2015.

Outfielders
Seth Smith - $7.5M
Justin Ruggiano - $3M (approx)
Arismendy Alcantara - $0.52M (approx)
Junior Lake - $0.53M (approx)
Ryan Sweeney - $1.5M

Analysis: I'm a believer in two things. First, I think Alcantara is bound for CF given an organizational need at the position and Baez and Castro both needing middle infield homes. Second, I think that Junior Lake is the seventh or eighth best starter on an excellent team given his composite contributions to the team. With that in mind, the Smith-Ruggiano platoon in LF provides the club with a strong bench bat and a strong #2 hitter each day. The platoon is expensive, but it provides Soler and Kyle Schwarber with the necessary development time. This group comes with a $13.05M price tag.

Given a $66.8M rotation, $6.31M bullpen, $14.76M infield, and $13.05M outfield, the total spending for 2015 would be $100.92M on the 25-man roster. That would represent a significant jump from this year's payroll where the entire 40-man roster ate up just under $77M; adding in dead money for Alfonso Soriano and Scott Hairston pushes that number to approximately $91.5M. Filling the remainder of the 2015 40-man roster with minimum salary players, the 40-man number would reach approximately $108.7M. Adding in contract buyouts for Kyuji Fujikawa and Jose Veras gets the number to just shy of $109.5M.

So there it is. The Cubs could field arguably the top rotation in baseball with Lester-Samardzija-Shields-Arrieta-Edwin and roll with the following everyday lineup:

LF Smith/Ruggiano
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
SS/2B Castro
CF Alcantara
RF Lake
C   Castillo

Even if that lineup would have some ups and downs, it would nonetheless be an interesting group and an exciting one with Soler, Almora, and Schwarber all potentially pushing for jobs by 2016 or constituting excellent trade bait. If you want to have even more lineup fun, just imagine Dan Jennings saying no to an offer of Soler, Almora, Edwards, Johnson, and Dan Vogelbach for Giancarlo Stanton. The lineup would admittedly increase in expense to around $120M for the 2015 40-man roster, although the increase could largely be offset by declining to sign Seth Smith. A batting order of...

CF Alcantara
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
SS/2B Castro
LF Lake
C   Castillo

...actually makes me drool. Wowzers. All of this is within reach.

Analyzing the Chicago Cubs 2014 Draft Class (Round 1-10)

The 2014 MLB Draft is in the books and the Chicago Cubs certainly had an interesting approach. Here is my look at their top ten picks followed by a brief look at intriguing talents after the first ten rounds.

The Cubs total bonus pool for the 2014 draft for picks in rounds 1-10 and for any bonus amount over $100,000 for a pick in rounds 11-40 is $8,352,200. Given that teams may exceed their pool by 5% before incurring the painful loss of future picks, the effective pool is really $8,769,810. With that in mind, here's a look at the picks.

1B/OF/C Kyle Schwarber, Indiana University (Junior)
Draft Spot: 1.4 (#4 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 235 lbs., L/R
Date of Birth: 3/5/93 (age 21 years, 3 months)
Slot Bonus: $4,621,200
Projected Bonus: $3,200,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $1,421,200
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 65 power, 70 discipline, 50 arm, 40 glove, 30 run
Pick Analysis: Schwarber represents a different approach of the Cubs front office under the still relatively new bonus pool regime. While many of us wanted one of the top three picks to fall to the Cubs at #4, Schwarber wasn't on many radars this high up the board. The reason is simple: he's homeless defensively. He'll be given a chance to stick behind the plate and rightly so as his value is exponentially greater as a catcher even if he's below-average defensively. If he can't stay there, I've only seen him as a 1B although Cubs brass supposedly believes that he could hack it in LF.

I just don't buy that. I think they chose Schwarber because they see the MLB marketplace lacking in (1) power, and (2) big-bat 1Bs. Schwarber feels like trade bait come next July and that just feels bizarre. Provided that he signs for at least $1M below slot value - and the front office clearly believes he will based on the rest of the class - Schwarber is a fine selection in terms of fulfilling the goal of acquiring a useful prospect and, clearly more importantly to the front office, ample bonus pool space.

Schwarber seems like a good guy with plenty of bat to have a nice career. I just disagree with the strategy and thus, as the embodiment of said plan, I'm not excited about Schwarber.

RHP Jake Stinnett, University of Maryland (Senior)
Draft Spot: 2.4 (#45 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'4", 205 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 4/25/92 (age 22 years, 1 month)
Slot Bonus: $1,250,400
Projected Bonus: $1,000,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $250,400
Scouting Report: 60 two-seam fastball, 60 four-seam fastball, 40 slider, 30 changeup
Pick Analysis: Stinnett is the rare college senior selected in the first few rounds of the draft. College seniors have become the flavor of choice among teams looking to save on their bonus pools in the latter rounds of the top ten, but Stinnett doesn't fit that mold. After flopping as a third baseman, he revitalized his baseball life by moving to the mound as a closer in 2013, completing his maturation with a shift into the rotation in 2014.

He's got two strong fastballs that should enable him to tread water as he learns a secondary arsenal. His two-seamer sits in the low-90s while his four-seamer is more of a mid-90s offering, although obviously with less movement. The two-seamer is going to be his bread-and-butter pitch, although his excellent tailing movement is generated in a way that may make diving action difficult to come by. His slider is a poor pitch currently with plenty of movement but little command, and his changeup is unusable in its current form. Nonetheless, his arm should have minimal wear-and-tear on it while his frame suggests that he has an excellent chance of holding up under the strains of starting should the pitches come along.

It's hard to love such a raw prospect at #45, but he fit the mold of the organization's draft (save early, spend a bit later) and he's got plenty of upside.

C/OF Mark Zagunis, Virginia Tech University (Junior) (at 1:17 and 2:50)
Draft Spot: 3.4 (#78 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 205 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 2/5/93 (age 21 years, 4 months)
Slot Bonus: $714,900
Projected Bonus: $714,900 (*Zagunis has reportedly signed for $615,000)
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $0 (*$99,900 according to the report)
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 45 power, 60 discipline, 45 arm, 50 glove, 65 run
Pick Analysis: Zagunis is a rare breed: the speedy catcher. Despite a pre-pitch bat wiggle, his swing is very compact and fluid, something that should lead to consistent contact. His hands are plenty quick, also helping the cause. Perhaps more importantly, he had more walks than strikeouts in each of the last two seasons, enabling him to remain productive as a junior even when the power went out (just two home runs after nine as a sophomore).

Still, his value is tied entirely to his ability to catch. If Zagunis moves to the outfield, it will be exceptionally difficult for him to earn an MLB job as his bat just isn't special. However, if he shows sufficient aptitude to remain behind the dish, he could play and move quickly in a Cubs system largely bereft of genuine catching talent after Welington Castillo and possibly the recently promoted Rafael Lopez.

Much like Stinnett, it's hard to love the Zagunis pick given that there were more attractive options on the board, but at this point, the addition of catching talent is a big plus.

LHP Carson Sands, High School (FL)
Draft Spot: 4.4 (#109 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'3", 205 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 3/28/95 (age 19 years, 2 months)
Slot Bonus: $480,600
Projected Bonus: $900,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost:-$419,400
Scouting Report: 50 four-seam fastball, 60 changeup, 45 curveball
Pick Analysis: If the first three picks left Cubs fans scratching their heads, the next four left the prospect hounds salivating. Sands is a bizarre prospect, an exceptionally old high schooler from north Florida. His high-80s fastball is good enough while his mid-70s tumbling changeup is his best offering. He also throws the mid-70s curve that so many lefties employ.

Currently, it's hard to watch him throw right now as his delivery appears to be tough on his shoulder. Hopefully the development staff can get his mechanics ironed out to minimize any damage that may have already been done. Still, 6'3", 200+ lbs. lefties don't grow on trees. This is a strong pick and arguably the second best prospect drafted by the club through four rounds even though Sands needs tons of refinement.

LHP Justin Steele, High School (MS)
Draft Spot: 5.4 (#139 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 180 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 7/11/95 (age 18 years, 11 months)
Slot Bonus: $359,900
Projected Bonus: $500,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$140,100
Scouting Report: 50 fastball, 45 curveball, 35 changeup
Pick Analysis: Steele is a bit tricky as most scouting services had him as a top-100 prospect yet nobody seemed to be particularly surprised that he last into the fifth round. Much like Sands, Steele is a very old high school prospect with a useful fastball, but unlike Sands, Steele's secondary offerings lag behind. He should have enough size to stick as a starter, but it's hard to be sure.

Regardless, Steele is a solid choice here as another left-handed high school lottery ticket. He keeps himself low to the ground throughout his delivery, making himself smaller in the process. As a result, it's possible to see him developing into a LOOGY.

RHP Dylan Cease, High School (GA)
Draft Spot: 6.4 (#169 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 175 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 12/28/95 (age 18 years, 5 months)
Slot Bonus: $269,500
Projected Bonus: $875,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$605,500
Scouting Report: 70 fastball, 30 curveball
Pick Analysis: Cease is probably the most interesting pick in the entire Cubs draft class. First off, he is widely expected to undergo Tommy John surgery shortly after signing, a double-edged sword in that his elbow problems are part of what left him on the board in the sixth round and also may derail his career before it even gets started.

His has a relatively low release point that prevents him from getting much downward action on his fastball, but the pitch shows incredible late life, especially for a teenager, as it explodes through the zone. His curveball lives at the opposite end of the spectrum with Cease showing barely any feel for the offering whatsoever. Nonetheless, legitimate mid-90s exploding heat from a high schooler is worth a flyer any day. If you're going to save money for high upside plays later in the draft, Cease is the right kind of play to make.

RHP James Norwood, St. Louis University (Junior)
Draft Spot: 7.4 (#199 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 175 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 12/24/93 (age 20 years, 5 months)
Slot Bonus: $201,900
Projected Bonus: $500,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$298,100
Scouting Report: 65 fastball, 45 changeup, 45 curveball, 35 slider
Pick Analysis: Norwood might be my favorite pick in the class in terms of value and intrigue. He features a darting two-seam fastball in the lot-to-mid-90s that he locates well, giving him one plus pitch to work with. His secondary pitches are decidedly imperfect and in need of reform. Further, elbow issues during his sophomore year likely led to Norwood's lower draft position.

But he's 20 1/2 after his junior year in college. Norwood is just 15 months older than Carson Sands. It's hard not to love such an advanced arm in a relatively young pitcher. I find Norwood's mechanics to be relatively clean and repeatable. He gets good downward plane on his fastball given a solidly over-the-top delivery and he looks extremely clean throwing from the stretch. He likely has a much higher floor than most seventh-rounders, and I believe that he'll rightly get an extended look as a starter.

LHP Tommy Thorpe, University of Oregon (Junior)
Draft Spot: 8.4 (#229 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 195 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 9/20/92 (age 21 years, 9 months)
Slot Bonus: $161,800
Projected Bonus: $150,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $11,800
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 50 curveball, 40 changeup
Pick Analysis: Thorpe is the first pick about whom it is very difficult to be excited. He works only in the high-80s with very little movement on his fastball, and while his mid-70s curveball offers some hope, his high-70s changeup doesn't add enough to push him into starting territory. His delivery is extremely violent. Taken together, it's hard to see a starter and even a LOOGY without some significant growth. The most disappointing pick.

RHP James Farris, University of Arizona (Senior)
Draft Spot: 9.4 (#259 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'2", 220 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 4/4/92 (age 22 years, 2 months)
Slot Bonus: $151,000
Projected Bonus: $50,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $101,000
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 50 changeup, 35 curveball
Pick Analysis: Farris wasn't drafted to fill a short- or long-term starting need; he was drafted exclusively to serve as organizational depth. The Cubs front office certainly liked that Farris enjoyed considerable success as a collegian, pitching the clinching game of last year's College World Series. There's not much to see here. Farris isn't going to make noise or be exciting.

RHP Ryan Williams, East Carolina University (Senior)
Draft Spot: 10.4 (#289 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'4", 220 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth:  11/1/91 (age 22 years, 7 months)
Slot Bonus: $141,000
Projected Bonus: $5,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $136,000
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 40 slider
Pick Analysis: This is all about the bonus or lack thereof. Williams will get a chance to pitch his way into a real look, much like Zack Godley has thus far as a professional, but he was drafted for his lack of leverage.

My estimated bonuses yielded $7,894,900 in bonuses for picks from Rounds 1-10. Such bonuses would leave the club with $874,910 of wiggle room to allocate to the over-$100,000 bonus portion for any picks in Rounds 11-40; if we assume that the other bonuses are correct and Zagunis received $100,000 less than expected, this number pushes up to $974,910. The Cubs seem most likely to use some of that space to go after Fresno State righty Jordan Brink (11th round), high school third baseman Kevonte Mitchell (13th), and, in particular, high school switch-hitting outfielder Isiah Gilliam (23rd).

Overall, I'm excited about the pitchers the Cubs nabbed in Rounds 4-7 and Stinnett is intriguing. Zagunis is interesting enough, but he absolutely must stick at catcher. Unfortunately, as the crown jewel of the class, Schwarber just doesn't do it for me. Hopefully he proves far better than expected and he can become a core piece of the future. Until then, the jury is out.

A Plea to Draft the Best Player Available

*Note: I initially wrote this two weeks ago and thought that I had published it then. Whoops. See the post below to find my day-before-the-draft thoughts.

I can't believe I'm actually writing this. But a wave has swept through Cubs fan sites proposing what would otherwise be an efficient approach to the draft if it wasn't so crazy. The rationale goes something like this:

Seeing as this is a three pitcher draft, the Cubs need a pitcher, and the Cubs pick fourth, the Cubs should cut a massively underslot deal with a player at #4 in order to save money and grab a falling prospect in Rounds 2 or 3. Given the new draft bonus pools and the harsh penalties for exceeding them by 5% or more, the Cubs would be able to add two strong prospects instead of just one.

I admit that this approach can work beautifully, but it requires a convergence of factors in order to pull it off. Specifically, the team has to be staring down two or more players of similar or equal value with at least one of them willing to go underslot. This worked out perfectly for the Astros in 2012 when they chose role 7 SS Carlos Correa and $2.4M savings over role 7 SP Mark Appel. They used the extra funds to sign a pair of prospects away from strong college commitments in compensation round draftee Lance McCullers ($2.5M bonus v. $1.26M slot) and fourth rounder Rio Ruiz ($1.85M bonus v. $360,200 slot).

McCullers is progressing up the prospect ladder, although he is hardly dominating the competition and may very well find himself in the bullpen. Ruiz is producing moderately well at A+, but the third baseman may find himself heading across the diamond to first base where his bat may not play.

Regardless, the results of McCullers and Ruiz are not the point. The point is this: it requires an incredible confluence of factors to justify going so wildly underslot at the top of the draft, and even if it makes sense, using the extra funds later on may or may not pay any dividends.

Here are the two reasons this just doesn't make sense for the Cubs in 2014:

Reason #1: Drafting at #4, the Cost Savings Just Aren't That Significant
When the Astros drafted top-five talent Correa, they saved $2.4M a whopping $2.4M. In order for the Cubs to save $2.4M on their top pick, they'd have to sign a player for $2.2M, substantially under their $4,621,200 slot. They could certainly seek to save less by drafting a better player, but obviously that means they would have less buying power for their subsequent picks.

In this year's draft, the drop off from #1 ($7,922,100) to #3 ($5,721,500) is $2.2M. Thus, if Brady Aiken believes that the Marlins will not draft him at #2 and he will thus drop to #3, he has a strong incentive to agree to an underslot deal with Houston that may even be $2M under slot.

Conversely, if the Cubs seek to find $2M of savings, they'd have to find a player who does not expect to be drafted until #14 ($2,613,200 slot) at the earliest. Otherwise, that player would be incentivized to wait and see if he is selected from picks 5-14.

There is plenty of value in going underslot at #1 in a draft with lots of great players but no clear-cut star; such value is exponentially lower at #4, especially in what I view as a four-player draft, which brings me to point #2...

Reason #2: There Is a Substantial Talent Dropoff After the Top Four Players in This Draft
To me, the top of this draft is relatively straightforward. Brady Aiken looks like an ace in a durable lefty package with top flight stuff. Carlos Rodon looks like a lesser version of Aiken, but still with a great fastball and an incredible slider/cutter. Tyler Kolek is 6'5", 245 lbs. and throws 102; if your minor league coaches can't work with that package, they should quit. And Alex Jackson is a masher, a potential .280+ hitter with 20+ homers with the ability and body for even more. If he's truly a catcher, Jackson is a 1.1 candidate; if he's a corner outfielder, he's still a top-four player.

Now how hard was that?

Some folks are making noise about Nick Gordon, Aaron Nola, and even Max Pentecost. Just stop it. Those four names listed above are the four that look like potential role 7 players while everyone else is in the 5-6 range. Those a good players, but the grade jumps are there for a reason and the jump from 6 to 7 is rarely made. Gordon has no very limited power projection and I'm not a big fan of his swing; he looks like Billy Hamilton with a bit less speed, a better stroke overall, and shortstop defense. That's a good player to be sure, but no power and a decent swing at #4? I don't see how Nola is going to work as a pro with that arm slot. And Pentecost is a Wely Castillo type, a nice player who can play an every day role on a contender but who must do so from the 7th or 8th spot in the lineup. Again, at #4? Really?

Going underslot makes sense when there's a similar or equal player to be had for less money. Of course you should maximize your value in that instance. But the beauty of picking at the top of the draft is that you should get a star-level prospect. Don't punt on the star-level piece just to get two good-level prospects. It's not worth it. Plus, if the front office really trusts the scouting and development process, the scouts should be able to find another excellent pick in the second and third rounds with the minor league staff developing that talent too.

When it comes to punting on the chance to grab a top-tier prospect in favor of spreading the risk, just say no.

A Final Quick Hope for the Cubs' Draft

Last month, I outlined my case for the four candidates I'd like for the Cubs to consider at 1.4 in tomorrow's draft. You can read the full post above or this simple recap:

1. Brady Aiken is the class of this class;
2. Carlos Rodon's slider alone makes him a 1.1 candidate and a low-to-mid-90s fastball is excellent too; he gets dinged a bit for pitching in college (where coaches want to ride his arm) instead of the pros for the last three years, but he's still an ace/#2 caliber pitcher;
3. Tyler Kolek throws 102 with a massive body; there are problems to work on but if you can't make that skill set into a big-time starter, there's no hope for your franchise; and
4. Alex Jackson has the power and hit tool to justify a top-five pick and plenty of athleticism to make that play in RF/LF; if he stays a C, he's a 1.1 candidate.

For as difficult as the MLB draft may be, it's really very simple: find good players, draft them, develop them, and reap the benefits.

If the Cubs call another name, I'm going to think that they made a poor choice. If it's Nick Gordon, they overvalued his athleticism and forgot to appreciate the need to get a big bat in the top five. If it's Max Pentecost, they goofily decided to load up on a player who falls to the second round for signability reasons. Diversifying risk is a good idea; punting on a top-five talent to take advantage of a faller later in the draft is a poor idea. It just is.

Part of the problem with the underslot approach is that this method makes significantly more sense for teams with lots of highish picks. The Cubs are not such a team. By the time the fourth round shows up on Friday afternoon, the Cubs will have made three picks while every other divisional foe will have made at least four; the Cardinals and Pirates will both have made five selections apiece. With so many picks, those teams can far better absorb the risk of saving for a draft-day slider knowing that they will add plenty of talent nonetheless.

On the contrary, if the Cubs select Pentecost and sign him for $2M under slot, they would absolutely require a later pick to agree to a deal for approximately $2M over slot, a player that has been passed on at least 44 times in favor of other, mostly superior prospects. If they can't find a taker for their later cash, drafting Pentecost is a total waste. Don't do it.

And don't draft Michael Conforto at 1.4. Conforto looks like a guy with a nice bat and a good approach. He's the right kind of bat to have in the middle of a lineup for a few years with more power and less batting average. But he's a poor outfield defender without much/any projection out there, portending a move to 1B or dreadful defensive value if he stays in the outfield with his weak arm. He doesn't run well either. Drafting Conforto at 1.4 is like drafting Tim Jennings with a top five pick in the NFL draft: you'd be getting a useful, starting-caliber player, but you can do significantly better in the top five.

So, all that to say this: please oh please draft one of those top four players. Grab a future rotation piece or middle-of-the-order bat.

In 2008, the Rays decided to save money at the top of the draft and selected SS Tim Beckham over the more highly rated C Buster Posey. In 2007, the Royals (3B Mike Moustakas), Cubs (3B Josh Vitters), and Pirates (LHP Daniel Moskos) all decided to avoid a massive payout in passing on the draft's second best player, C Matt Wieters. Wieters signed the largest bonus of any player in the draft, even larger than #1 overall pick LHP David Price, but the teams that passed on him categorically regret the terrible decision.

Not to pick on the Rays, but 2005 represented arguably the worst violation of the "Best Player Available" rule; it's difficult not to wonder what might have been. The Rays went substantially under slot with injured righty Wade Townsend at #8 for just $1.5M; the next 12 picks all received larger bonuses. The next four players chosen? RHP Mike Pelfrey, OF Cameron Maybin, OF Andrew McCutchen, and OF Jay Bruce. Pelfrey (9.6), Maybin (8.7), McCutchen (29.0), and Bruce (16.1) have combined to produce 63.4 WAR since 2005 with Maybin, Bruce, and McCutchen all in their primes as strong contributors. Townsend never made it past AA. But at least the Rays saved a couple hundred grand.

Don't get cute by going under slot. Not unless the Cubs really need something else to regret for decades. In my relatively short lifetime, Greg Maddux the Brave and the 8th inning of Game 6 are plenty for me.

The Cubs, One Year from Now

The 2014 Cubs have already proved to be a bit of an enigma. The club features a +4 run differential - better than the Padres, Dodgers, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Phillies, Mets, Rangers, Indians, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, and Yankees - yet they are just 17-28, the third worst mark in baseball. If standings were completed by run differential instead of win-loss record, the Cubs would be second place in the NL Central, AL Central, and AL East.

This should be a cause for optimism. Russell Carleton over at Baseball Prospectus expertly explained that run differential at this point in the season is a better predictor of future record than current record itself (subscription required). There are a trio of ways to achieve an average run differential: excellent prevention/poor scoring, excellent scoring/poor prevention, or roughly average of both.

The Cubs have accomplished their run differential with excellent run prevention. The team's FIP ranks 4th in all of baseball at 3.36 with their starting pitching the best in all of baseball at 3.18; the bullpen's FIP of 3.73 is 16th. Their team defense rating of 12.4 runs above average (at Fangraphs) comes in at 9th in baseball. Superb starting pitching combined with average relief work and above-average defense yields strong run prevention results as the team has allowed the 8th fewest runs in baseball.

The offense is a different story as the team's wRC+ of 81 (normalized with 100 as average) ranks 29th in baseball, ahead of only the feckless Padres. They rank 25th in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage (.301), and 21st in isolated power (.133). The club embarrassingly leads the majors in strikeout rate at 23.5% of all plate appearances. Through just 45 games, they have scored 35.6 fewer runs than an average offense. There's work to be done.

In a moment of sadness, I looked forward again to the 2015 club. For years, this has been the year in which the team is first expected to truly compete and make noise. With that in mind, here is a position-by-position look at next year's club. See if you can contain your excitement.

*Estimated salaries are italicized; guaranteed salaries are in standard print

Catcher
Incumbent Starter: Welington Castillo
Projected 2015 Starter: Welington Castillo
Projected 2015 Expense: $2.9M (Arbitration 1)
Analysis: Castillo is a solid, unspectacular contributor who brings value with his defense and bat. His on-base percentage has lagged behind due to only a decent walk rate and subpar batting averages. But there's enough power in his bat to be an average bat at the position, and his half splits suggest that he has the ability for even more: for his career, he's a .248/.304/.363 hitter in the first half compared to .285/.369/.468 in the second half. May is traditionally his worst month and this year is no exception. Regardless, Castillo remains a valuable asset for the near future provided that he can hit in the 8th or 7th spot of the lineup.

Reserve Catcher
Incumbent: John Baker
Projected 2015 Reserve: Anonymous replacement-level free agent (possibly Baker again)
Projected 2015 Expense: $1M or less
Analysis: When I projected the 40-man roster for 2015, I got to 36 players, yet Castillo was the only catcher. There is no organizational depth here although both Rafael Lopez and minor league Rule 5 pick Charles Cutler are playing well at AA. Still, I don't expect catcher to be addressed, especially not with Castillo still in his prime.

First Baseman
Incumbent Starter: Anthony Rizzo
Projected 2015 Starter: Anthony Rizzo
Projected 2015 Expense: $5M
Analysis: Rizzo is blossoming into the star that the front office hoped he would become. While his power seems to come and go at this point in his career, he is nonetheless hitting for adequate power (.188 ISO) and his 17.5% BB% is 5th in MLB. He looks like a fixture in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th spots of the lineup with a remote chance to be an unconventional #2 hitter a la Joey Votto. Regardless, Rizzo looks like a pre-prime star.

Second Baseman
Incumbent Starter: Luis Valbuena
Projected 2015 Starter: Javier Baez
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.510M
Analysis: Valbuena is a tricky player, one with plenty of glove for 2B and 3B and with enough bat to justify an every day job. He's also hardly a star and he has the organization's best prospects nipping at his heels. During the offseason, I thought Valbuena stood a good chance of finding himself with the Yankees or some other contender during 2014 and I think that possibility remains true. He has never shown the ability to regularly produce strong batting average, so it's hard to buy into his current .342 BABIP given his .266 career BABIP. He's plenty valuable; that value just makes more sense for another team.

As for the Cubs, they genuinely have three solid options for 2B in 2015: Valbuena, Baez, or Arismendy Alcantara. I think Alcantara will get a crack at an every day job, just not at 2B (see more below). That leaves Baez to man second, and he should have plenty of defensive chops for the spot, even coming off a bit overqualified given his strong arm. Nonetheless, the reemerging top prospect is back to torturing minor league pitchers, and he should be in line for a regular job by either mid-April or early-June 2015, depending on whether the Cubs just want the seventh year of team control or if they also want to avoid the Super Two cutoff. Whenever he arrives, Baez will do so as a 3rd, 4th, or 5th hole masher.

Third Baseman
Incumbent Starter: Mike Olt
Projected 2015 Starter: Kris Bryant
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.510M
Analysis: Olt should still get a shot to play each day, but I think that opportunity will come in an outfield corner where his big arm can play. He's currently a better defender than Bryant, though Bryant has the best infield arm in the system that I've seen. Bryant is the future and he's going to get his chance to man 3B at the top level. Bryant has yet to be truly challenged in the minors despite sizable strikeout rates at every level; when I have seen him, he makes such hard contact when he puts the ball in play that it makes a high-.300s BABIP believable. The man is going to be a 3rd, 4th, or 5th hitting beast in the very near future.

Shortstop
Incumbent Starter: Starlin Castro
Projected 2015 Starter: Starlin Castro
Projected 2015 Expense: $6M
Analysis: Although currently mired in an 0-for-14 slump, Castro is still proving that 2013 was just a bad dream. He makes his living lining balls to right and right-center while whipping his bat around to put offspeed pitches down the left-field line. Castro isn't likely destined for stardom as he still rarely walks and his power looks good, not great, but he's an extremely valuable asset as a good-fielding shortstop who can still push for .300 batting averages. Expect to see him batting 2nd or 6th by this time next year, his ideal lineup spots.

Reserve Infielders
Incumbents: Darwin Barney, Emilio Bonifacio (sort of)
Projected 2015 Reserves: Logan Watkins, Josh Vitters
Projected 2015 Expense: $1.02M
Analysis: These reserve spots will more likely be filled by outsiders, but given that Watkins appears ready for a utility reserve spot, he makes sense. Vitters is trickier; he'd make the team only if his bat returns to form as a righty bench bat. The rest of the roster is full of infielders who can cover 2B (Baez, Alcantara), SS (Castro, Baez), and 3B (Bryant, Baez, Olt), so a pure bat could very well make the roster.

Leftfielder
Incumbent Starter: Junior Lake
Projected 2015 Starter: Mike Olt
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: Although I think Olt will get bumped from his 3B job, I think he's still going to get a chance to play and LF should be his best bet. After a truly dreadful April, Olt has rebounded with a strong May thus far (.200/.300/.520) on the strength of his powerful bat; he has also proved surprisingly adept at cashing in runs via the sacrifice fly, a welcome development given his very high strikeout rate. It remains to be seen if he will be a long-term piece, but for now it's worth getting his bat in the lineup to find out.

Centerfielder
Incumbent Starter: Emilio Bonifacio
Projected 2015 Starter: Arismendy Alcantara
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: And here he is. Alcantara came up as a shortstop, forced to 2B with Javier Baez behind him and Starlin Castro in front. Nonetheless, his skill set is well-suited for centerfield given his plus-plus speed and an adequate arm (some scouts like his arm, but I haven't been terribly impressed with it). Alcantara continues to hit for big power with stolen bases and a strong batting average, although the 22-year-old switch-hitter has struggled to draw walks at AAA. His game certainly isn't as pretty as some of the other names on this list, but he has a chance to bat 1st, 2nd, or 7th in a great lineup if his maturation continues.

Rightfielder
Incumbent Starter: Nate Schierholtz
Projected 2015 Starter: Junior Lake
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: The Cubs are wasting developmental time with Lake in LF; he is ideally suited for CF given a big arm and good speed, but he would also play better in RF where nobody is blocking him. Like Olt, Lake has rebounded from a poor April but his improvement has been far more pronounced: after stumbling through a .221/.254/.382 opening month, Lake has exploded for a .344/.354/.574 May. He brings value on the basepaths already and he figures to do so in the field given his athletic skills; if some of his offensive growth proves sustainable, we're looking at a really nice piece. Lake should hit 6th or 7th next year with an outside shot at hitting 5th if the power continues to show up in games. It's unlikely to ever look like a masterpiece with Lake, but his high-variance, high-energy approach does have considerable skills backing it up.

Reserve Outfielders
Incumbents: Justin Ruggiano, Ryan Sweeney, Ryan Kalish
Projected 2015 Reserves: Ruggiano, Sweeney
Projected 2015 Expense: $3.0M (Ruggiano - Arbitration 2), $1.5M (Sweeney)
Analysis: Remarkably, Ruggiano and Sweeney project as the fourth and fifth most expensive position players on the roster. Ruggiano profiles as a nice bench bat who can be a short-side platoon starter while Sweeney fulfills the defensive replacement role. It also wouldn't be stunning to see the club designate Ruggiano for assignment this offseason, figuring that he doesn't project to start and his role can be filled for 20% of the cost.

A Brief Recap of the Offense
While the 2014 offense has been putrid thus far, the group looks to get massive boosts throughout the lineup by this time next year highlighted by two of baseball's premier offensive prospects joining the fray. Though highly unlikely to be the lineup on Opening Day 2015, the June 1st lineup could very well be:

1. CF Alcantara
2. SS Castro
3. 1B Rizzo
4. 3B Bryant
5. 2B Baez
6. RF Lake
7. LF Olt
8. C   Castillo

Now, this group is not without its flaws and it is entirely possible that any number of these names could flame out. But how much more exciting is it to watch a lineup comprised of those players than the Nate Schierholtzes and David DeJesuses of the baseball world? All of those players have impact tools: hit (Castro, Bryant, Baez), power (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Lake, Olt), speed (Alcantara), and defense (Castillo). We keep hearing about the core of the next great Cubs team. That's it, even with top prospects like Jorge Soler and Albert Almora not yet a part of the action. The above roster is extremely cheap with the catchers ($3.9M), infielders ($14.04M), and outfielders ($6.03M) costing a grand total of $23.97M. Incredible.

Starting Pitcher #1
Incumbent Starter: Jeff Samardzija
Projected 2015 Starter: Jeff Samardzija
Projected 2015 Expense: $10M (Arbitration 3)
Analysis: Well, Shark turned into an ace. The club's decision with Samardzija will be among the biggest choices the team has to make on any player during this massive, drawn-out rebuilding process. Given that lineup above, the Cubs offense should be able to be a league-average group as early as the second half of 2015 with the sky as the limit thereafter. If that's true, at least some pitching needs to be in Chicago by 2015. Samardzija is controllable through 2015, but the Cubs rightly recognize that a decision should be made on the ace in the next two months. If he's going to be the ace of the team, the Homer Bailey extension (6 years, $105M guaranteed) is likely a floor. I think a 6 year, $115M offer would likely get Samardzija's signature and such a deal could be structured as follows:

Signing Bonus: $12M
Y1 (replacing Arbitration 3): $15M
Y2: $19M
Y3: $18M
Y4: $17M
Y5: $16M
Y6: $15M
Y7: $22M club option with $3M buyout

That structure may seem bizarre, but the deal is structured as such to enable the Cubs to meet their financing obligations in the later portion of his contract when the Castro and Rizzo extensions get pricier and the current wave of prospects are moving into the arbitration system. This year's payroll can certainly absorb the huge signing bonus given the earmarked funds for Masahiro Tanaka, and Samardzija would have an enormous incentive to sign the contract given such a substantial upfront bonus; he'd be in line to make an extra $17M over 2014-15 by signing this extension.

Starting Pitcher #2
Incumbent Starter: Jason Hammel
Projected 2015 Starter: From most likely to least likely: James Shields, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, or Ervin Santana
Projected 2015 Expense: $23M
Analysis: Hammel has been excellent thus far with his 3.22 FIP placing him 37th in baseball directly behind Rick Porcello, Justin Verlander, and David Price. However, his .222 BABIP is bound to come up such that, even if he maintains his excellent 1.99 BB/9, he's settling in as a mid-rotation arm.

The Cubs are well-positioned to fill their offensive needs internally and, as noted above, their rotation has been among baseball's best. Unfortunately, their top-tier pitching prospects are a few years away (Paul Blackburn, Jen-Ho Tseng, possibly the #4 pick in next month's draft), struggling with the injury bug (C.J. Edwards (I think he's a reliever), Pierce Johnson, Ivan Pineyro), or lack a top-of-the-rotation ceiling (Kyle Hendricks). That's where money comes in. The Cubs certainly have some, although it's unclear just how much. Regardless, if they had $40M to spend this year on Tanaka ($20M posting fee + $20M salary), I'm confident that they can afford one of the top tier guys in next year's class.

Shields should be the easiest to sign given that, at 33 in December, he can likely be signed to something like a 4 year, $80M deal. He's risky given his age, but older players are nearly the new market inefficiency.

Scherzer appears likely to jump for a huge payday given his reportedly turning down a 6 year, $144M offer from Detroit, and if the Cubs are willing to shell out the cash, he could probably be had for something like 7 years, $175M. Scherzer is a flyball pitcher, but his huge strikeout rate, good command, and strong track record make him extremely appealing.

Lester is peaking in his age-30 season, but this front office was with him for much of his career, so there could be something there. Given that he has earned "just" $44.5M so far in his career and he will turn 31 this winter, Lester likely knows that this is his only shot at a huge deal. I think he'll ultimately get something like 6 years, $140M. I'd be on board with the Cubs giving him that cash, but I'll surprised if he actually leaves Boston.

Masterson finds himself in the unenviable position of tanking in his contract year as command woes and some bad lucky have led to poor results. He also lacks the track record of the three listed above. I think he'll either look for a one year "prove it" deal or look for something in the 6 year, $90M range. Masterson is in a tough spot as he will turn 30 before next season begins and his platform year has been a disaster thus far. He is obviously much less attractive than the three names listed above him.

Finally, Santana has pitched splendidly this year although his career averages suggest that he is pitching a bit over his head right now. He's not a #2 starter for a contender unless such time has three #3s right behind him in an untraditional rotation format.

My solid preference is for Scherzer with Lester just a bit behind him. After that, it's basically Shields or bust as it is tough to justify big bucks on Masterson or Santana at this point.

Starting Pitcher #3
Incumbent Starter: Travis Wood
Projected 2015 Starter: Travis Wood
Projected 2015 Expense: $5.75M (Arbitration 2)
Analysis: Wood has won me over. I thought his 2013 was largely a mirage thanks to underwhelming rate stats, but he has been even better thus far in 2014 with a huge jump in BABIP and drop in his strand rate to blame for less impressive results in spite of a major uptick in strikeout rate. Wood is proving to be a reliable workhorse who challenges us to consider what comprises valuable "stuff" as his movement and ability to command his arsenal makes him far better than his velocity ever could.

Wood may also be looking at an extension. He will be 28 next year with the Cubs controlling his services through 2016; perhaps a 4 year, $40M deal would work for both sides, covering his last two arbitration years and two free agent years while allowing him to hit free agency at age-32 with nearly $50M in his back pocket.

Starting Pitcher #4
Incumbent Starter: Edwin Jackson
Projected 2015 Starter: Jake Arrieta
Projected 2015 Expense: $1.8M (Arbitration 1)
Analysis: Arrieta narrowly missed being a Super Two yet his years of injuries and struggles should keep his arbitration wages down. Still, it's possible that his starting arbitration salary could be notably higher than this. Regardless, he has the arrows in his quiver to be a very good starter and, at 28, the time is now. The early returns have been promising in 2014 despite his being slowed by injury and continuing to struggle with the free pass. The Cubs don't need him to be a star, but if he can be productive in the Edwin Jackson mold of starters with better stuff than results but solid results nonetheless, that's still plenty useful.

Starting Pitcher #5
Incumbent Starter(s): Jake Arrieta
Projected 2015 Starter: Edwin Jackson
Projected 2015 Expense: $11M
Analysis: Currently slated to be the highest paid Cub in 2015, Edwin has pulled a Starlin and put 2013 in his rearview mirror. As of today, his 3.01 FIP ranks 21st in baseball among qualified starting pitchers. He has the look of a true asset, a starter who throws tons of innings with plenty of strikeouts and a manageable amount of walks. Edwin is a good #4; he's a tremendous #5.

Closer
Incumbent Starter: Hector Rondon
Projected 2015 Starter: Hector Rondon
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: As I wrote to my brother last week, every great team has a couple of guys with whom they got very lucky. For the Cubs, that player appears to be Rondon. A former top prospect in the Cleveland system, Rondon suffered back-to-back elbow injuries that enabled him to find his way to the Cubs via the Rule 5 draft. He has proved to be a monumental steal. Rondon's 1.86 FIP ranks 14th among qualified relievers and he has achieved that success with a massive fastball complemented by a slider and cutter. His 94.8 mph average fastball ranks 18th among relievers. He has the look of a keeper.

Relief Pitchers
Incumbent Starter(s): Carlos Villanueva, Neil Ramirez, Brian Schlitter, Justin Grimm, Pedro Strop, James Russell, Jose Veras, Zac Rosscup, Wesley Wright
Projected 2015 Starter(s): Neil Ramirez, Justin Grimm, Wesley Wright, Zac Rosscup, Brian Schlitter, Arodys Vizcaino, Pedro Strop
Projected 2015 Expense: $6.25M Total: $1.9M (Strop - Arbitration 2 as Super Two), $1.8M (Wright - Arbitration 3), $0.51M (Ramirez), $0.51M (Grimm), $0.51M (Rosscup), $0.51M (Schlitter), $0.51M (Vizcaino)
Analysis: Armando Rivero could also get in on the action. This group is the incarnated version of a plan. Strop, Vizcaino, Ramirez, Grimm, and Rosscup were all acquired via trade and Rivero came in as an amateur free agent from Cuba. Grimm has struggled with his command but shows big strikeout stuff. Ramirez has been superb. Rosscup was strong before suffering an injury while Strop struggled significantly with his command too.

Veras will not be missed and, unfortunately, the overwork of the past two years appears to have caught up with Russell. Regardless, there are plenty of quality bullpen options here, many of whom are a part of 2014's solid group.

A Brief Recap of the Pitching
After spending just $23.97M on the position players, there's a lot of cash left for the pitching. Given the number of relief options, the club should be able to put together an above-average bullpen for just the $6.76M proposed above. Leaving only the five starters, this proposal would cover 21 spots (I'm not deciding between an eighth reliever and a fifth bench player - I'm just going with 26 guys, so sue me) for just $30.73M. Holy Freezerburn Batman!

Of course, I've taken that space and spent big...kind of. I think rolling with Wood-Arrieta-Edwin as the 3-4-5 is plenty reasonable, especially with Kyle Hendricks ready as the sixth starter/possible long man. $51.55M for a starting rotation is hardly crazy; this does presume Samardzija's third arbitration year instead of his first year in a new extension and the above-listed $23M proposal for Scherzer/Lester/Shields. The rotation of Samardzija-Scherzer-Wood-Arrieta-Jackson would be superb, probably just a notch below the fantastic rotation in Detroit this year. With great young arms in the bullpen and a barrage of pitching a year or two away to push Wood, Arrieta, and Jackson, one big acquisition makes tons of sense, even if it costs a lot of cash.

What Does It All Mean?
The excitement that is already present when watching Cubs games this year is about to increase exponentially. The pitching has already turned in a strong performance in 2014, and while the young relievers figure to struggle some as the season wears on, they should also face enough internal competition to enable the franchise to determine which ones are keepers. With so many arms pushing up internally, the bullpen should be a true strength for years to come.

There is a bizarre misconception that the Cubs desperately need pitching. It's true that they lack a big-time pitching prospect that projects as a top-of-the-rotation arm; I won't argue that they do. I will argue that they already have (1) an ace (Samardzija), (2) a solid mid-rotation arm (Wood), (3) a great back-of-the-rotation arm (Edwin), and (4) a possible mid-rotation guy whose floor is as a back-of-the-rotation arm (Arrieta). They need another top-of-the-rotation arm and with it, they've got a rotation built for the long haul and a short series where Samardzija and Scherzer/Lester/Shields would both throw twice with the other game handled by the hottest guy among the remaining trio. That's excellent pitching.

The depressing 2014 offense is going to look substantially different in 2015 not just because there will be new faces but because the new faces project to hit 1st, 4th, and 5th, three of the most important lineup spots. While some of those guys won't last, the late-May/early-June 2015 lineup will be extremely exciting and will enable the club to field an offense with the upside to complement potentially excellent pitching.

It's hard to believe just how plausible everything I just wrote truly is, but what makes it just as incredible is that, for the 26 players listed above, the total cost is as follows:

Position Players (13): $23.97M
Starting Pitchers (5): $51.55M
Relief Pitchers (8): $6.76M
TOTAL: $82.28M

$82.28M. The last time the Cubs had an Opening Day payroll that low? 2003. I'd certainly go for a repeat of 2003. Team revenue was approximately $156M in 2003; it has been at least $266M since 2011. If the Cubs can't handle an $82.28M payroll (yes, it will escalate a bit each year thereafter, but so should the club's revenue), well, let's just assume that they can.

A Quick Review of the Chicago Bears 2014 Draft

I love it.

Phil Emery obviously had a lot of holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball along with some offensive needs. He certainly could have filled all of them with 15 first-round choices, but given the standard seven selections with two sixth-rounders and no seventh-rounders, he did a tremendous job of continuing to revamp the areas of the club's roster most in need of a talent infusion. He also made smart picks late that should help the team now in filling roster spots with the chance to grow into more in the future. Let's take a quick look at the rationale for each player. Grades will range from the absurd F- (Cedric Benson) to the perfect A+ (Peanut Tillman); C represents a genuinely average selection (Stephen Paea) and there are no "E" grades such that the scale is A-B-C-D-F.

CB Kyle Fuller
Pick: Round 1, #14 overall
Height/Weight: 6'0", 190 lbs.
College: Virginia Tech
Analysis: Fuller is a perfect addition to this roster, a player who can play 60-70% of the team's snaps this year while providing a desperately needed infusion of young talent in the secondary. While many clamored for a safety in the first round, to me, Fuller was the best defensive back on the board. I saw him as the proper balance of physical and football skills, trumpeting his fit with our roster in a series of emails leading up to the draft. Perhaps Justin Gilbert's speed will translate into success at the top level or HaHa Clinton-Dix will be able to play a masterful center field. No matter. Given the information at hand, Fuller was a perfect addition as an NFL-ready corner with plus coverage and run-support skills.
Grade: A

DT Ego Ferguson
Pick: Round 2, #51 overall
Height/Weight: 6'3", 315 lbs.
College: LSU
Analysis: Ferguson is the first guy that brings up a key point with the draft: as a fan, I have access to 1/100th of the information that Phil Emery does. As such, I can feel like certain prospects would be a better fit for the team, but without knowing the prospects themselves, I really can't complain with individual picks. However, I do have 99/100ths of the information that Emery does when it comes to the 53-man roster and the team's salary cap situation. As such, I knew that at least one defensive tackle absolutely needed to be added to the roster and that a run-stuffer made plenty of sense. Ferguson fits the bill and likely would not have made it to the Bears in the third round (although, of course, he may have). I can't fault them for the particular player they drafted and I like a DT in the second round. Emery played this draft well, knowing that impact corners were limited to the top four while a handful of DTs would fall to the second and third rounds. The draft fell into his lap.

Having said that, I didn't love the film on Ferguson. He doesn't project to offer much, if any, pass rushing value, so he'll need to develop into a monster run-stuffer to justify the pick. It might happen, it might not. Regardless, it's hard not to respect a man who turns pro to help out his mom after she suffered a workplace injury that made cash tight for her; it speaks well of his character.
Grade: C+

DT Will Sutton
Pick: Round 3, #82 overall
Height/Weight: 6'0", 290 lbs.
College: Arizona State
Analysis: Sutton is a case study in scouting and projection. After absolutely manhandling the Pac-12 at 285 lbs. in 2012 (watch his strong Oregon State game here, especially his punishing strip sack early in the game), he got some bad advice and ballooned to 320 lbs. last year. The results weren't pretty. I watched his game tape against Stanford and Wisconsin; it was really, really ugly. Sutton had no burst and was easily removed from every play. As of draft day, he was back down to 290 and he figures to rotate with contract-year man Paea at the three-technique position. Sutton is a flawed prospect to be sure, but he represents potentially massive value thanks to his shrinking physique.

This was a superb pick by Emery, in part because the GM acknowledged the roster in assessing that the team could absorb two defensive tackles guaranteed to make the team; only Paea and Jeremiah Ratliff were safe bets to make the roster before the draft, and Ratliff should not be counted on as any every-down player. Both Nate Collins and Israel Idonije provide solid depth, but neither project as valuable starters. Both Ferguson and especially Sutton should be rotation players in Week One with the chance to grow into a useful tandem.
Grade: B

RB Ka'Deem Carey
Pick: Round 4, #117 overall
Height/Weight: 5'9", 207 lbs.
College: Arizona
Analysis: Any Bears fan knew that it was time to address the backup running back position. While Marion Barber and Michael Bush had their flashes, neither ever truly impressed with Barber torpedoed by the Tebow game and Bush done in by an eroding body. Carey represents a commitment to the reserve position in the form of a plus runner who will protect Matt Forte as a worse version of Forte himself, not as a complementary back. Carey isn't an exciting prospect to me, but he's better than the options drafted after him, and the backup RB spot was one of the truly glaring holes on the roster. I expected either tight end or running back to be the first offensive position selection, and I believe that Emery would have had a difficult decision on his hands had Washington's Austin Seferian-Jenkins slipped to #51. But when he came off the board early in the second round, there were no remaining dynamic athletes at the position, rendering RB the obvious choice. Carey is a good one, even if he doesn't offer the type of impact athleticism that suggests a future role as a feature back.
Grade: C-

S Brock Vereen
Pick: Round 4, #131 overall
Height/Weight: 6'0", 199 lbs.
College: Minnesota
Analysis: Unlike some, I am not opposed to trading up in the draft; sometimes, the best value comes from moving up even just a few spots. For example, in Emery's first draft as Bears GM in 2012 - in an otherwise dreadful draft for the rookie GM - Emery used #50 and #150 overall to move up just five spots to #45 where he selected Pro Bowl WR Alshon Jeffery. Sometimes the move you do make is the best one.

Unfortunately, while I had a year-long YouTube affair with Alshon before that draft, my limited exposure to Vereen has been quite poor. He doesn't appear to offer much help in run support. He is sufficiently athletic to morph into a starter at some point in time, but his play will need to improve multiple levels in order for this to happen. More alarmingly, his ball skills appear poor, he has a very hard time getting off blocks regardless of who is doing the blocking, and in three games of tape I saw precisely zero impact hits despite a few missed tackles. The front office likely enjoyed that Vereen played a lot of man-to-man coverage in college.

To me, Vereen is a fringe NFL-caliber athlete who doesn't look like he'll ever be good enough to start. To make matters worse, the Bears gave Denver next year's fifth-round-pick in order to move up 25 slots to select Vereen, obtaining the 246th pick this year as a small consolation prize. I like that Emery grabbed a safety he likes; I just don't like Vereen as a prospect with the cost of trading up placing this firmly in the miss pile.
Grade: F+

QB David Fales
Pick: Round 6, #183 overall
Height/Weight: 6'2", 212 lbs.
College: San Jose State
Analysis: Much has been made of Emery's study finding that no late-round quarterback drafted since 2005 has been developed into a full-time starter. That remains true. I don't think anyone in any front office expects Fales to develop into a regular starter. That says almost nothing about this pick. Fales should push Jordan Palmer for the #2 job this year and have the ability to stick as an in-house #2 option. Fales throws for good accuracy, but his arm strength is somewhere in between Juan Pierre and Craig Krenzel. Still, it's nice to find a sixth-rounder who is very likely to make the roster.
Grade: B-

P Pat O'Donnell
Pick: Round 6, #191 overall
Height/Weight: 6'4", 220 lbs.
College: Miami (FL)
Analysis: Many folks despise using a draft pick on a specialist, and I myself suggested that it wasn't worth it just 40 hours before the draft started. With that in mind, I can't give this pick a tremendous grade.

But I can love Pat O'Donnell. He is a near-lock to make the team and O'Donnell is a tremendous athlete who ran a 4.53 40 at the Combine. That's not a misprint. His highlight video shows him making some fantastic tackles. Obviously that's not why he was drafted, but it does convey even a bit more of the organizational focus on finding athletes. Anyway, O'Donnell has a huge leg and the team desperately needed a punter. They have traditionally focused on specialists and hopefully this can make a weakness into a position of strength. More on O'Donnell in a bit.
Grade: C

OT Charles Leno Jr.
Pick: Round 7, #246 overall
Height/Weight: 6'4", 303 lbs.
College: Boise State
Analysis: Offensive tackle was the one remaining spot on the roster where a rookie stands a reasonable chance of making the team. As such, why not take a flier on a late-round guy?

Leno appears to have strong agility for a man his size but I'm not convinced about his strength. He does look like he might be a better fit a guard, but it's too early to make such a decision on him. For now, suffice it to say that Leno will have a chance to make the team.
Grade: C

Closing Thoughts
As of today, this looks like an excellent draft from Emery. The only position of significant need that he did not address was tight end, and even that was a wise decision as this draft simply did not feature enough draftable tight ends. Of the eight draftees, the first seven all stand excellent odds of making the team. That's efficient use of the picks, especially considering that each pick was drafted in an appropriate spot.

To me, Emery managed a nice balance of acquiring talent to help the 2014 team while also adding pieces who have plenty of projection to grow into real contributors. Overall, I'd give him a B+ for a very strong draft.

A Look at the 2014 NFL Draft for the Chicago Bears

For a number of years, I would do my own full NFL mock draft. We're talking 250+ picks. At some point in college, I realized that this was completely insane and an epic waste of time. Instead, I would read about prospects and imagine some of them becoming Bears. That was enough for me.

On the eve of the 2009 draft, I remember laying in bed one night, completely falling in love with an undersized receiver who ran impeccable routes, had tremendous quickness, excellent body control, and very strong hands. It's a shame that he wasn't a bit bigger: if Johnny Knox weighed even 20 lbs. more, perhaps his career wouldn't have ended two years ago. Regardless, I appreciate that such a stroke of luck - falling in love with a player before your team magically drafts him 140th overall - is unlikely to ever happen again, so what's the use in pressing destiny?

Instead, I like to take a look at the roster in advance of the draft, assessing which positions should be targeted for bodies. There's no sense in saying "the Bears must draft a defensive tackle in the first round!" The only player the Bears must draft in the first round if given the opportunity is Jadeveon Clowney. That's it. Otherwise, they must draft a good football player, wherever he plays. I'd like for them to do the same thing in each subsequent round.

With that in mind, here's a look at the players currently under contract with a look toward which positions could use some help late this week. The draft need will be on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 representing the need to add another quarterback behind Joe Montana and Steve Young and 10 showing the need to add a left tackle to replace Aaron Gibson.

Quarterback
Players on Roster: Jay Cutler, Jordan Palmer, Jerrod Johnson
Roster Analysis: The Bears would be wise to add another quarterback at some point this offseason, if only to add some competition for Palmer, but they hardly need to add a big-time player here.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville), Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M), Blake Bortles (Central Florida).
Draft Analysis: If one of these three falls to the Bears at #14, they should at least entertain the idea of drafting such a high caliber signal caller. I'm among the minority that will be surprised to see even one of this trio last to #14 with at least Houston, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota all desperately in need of a quarterback. How many of those GMs really want to get fired in the next two years if they run out Case Keenum or Brian Hoyer every game? Assuming they'd like to stay employed, someone will bite the bullet and draft a QB. After that trio, there's not much of a point in using a later-round pick on a quarterback. For every Tom Brady, there are 1,000 Nathan Enderles. There is much greater value available late in the draft at other positions.

Running Back
Players on Roster: Matt Forte, Michael Ford, Shaun Draughn, Tony Fiammetta (FB), Willie Carter (FB)
Roster Analysis: If there's one thing we've learned over the past few years, it is that NFL running backs come in all shapes and sizes and productive backs can be found as undrafted free agents nearly as well as top picks. Forte and Fiammetta will both make the roster while Draughn and Carter will not; Ford should return, but the question will be whether he comes back as the second or third back. I think the Bears will add someone, although that someone could very well be an undrafted free agent just like Ford.
Draft Need: 5
Potential Draft Targets: Rounds 3-4: Bishop Sankey (Washington), Jeremy Hill (LSU), Tre Mason (Auburn). Rounds 5-6: Charles Sims (West Virginia), Marion Grice (Arizona State)
Draft Analysis: These are all value picks as each players should be drafted a round or two higher. Hill, Sims, and Grice are in the same mold as Matt Forte: big, powerful runners who could be every-down backs. Sankey and Mason are more traditional change of pace backs who could contribute more right away. The only wrong place to draft a running back is in the first round.

Tight End
Players on Roster: Martellus Bennett, Dante Rosario, Zach Miller, Fendi Onobun, Matthew Mulligan
Roster Analysis: The Black Unicorn was a star last year. Rosario was useful enough, but he's hardly a special second tight end. The other three are all unlikely to make the final roster, though Onobun will undoubtedly make noise this offseason as he tends to do.
Draft Need: 8
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Eric Ebron (North Carolina). Round 2: Jace Amaro (Texas Tech), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Washington). Rounds 3 and later: Troy Niklas (Notre Dame), Xavier Grimble (USC), Joe Don Duncan (Dixie State).
Draft Analysis: I will be surprised if the Bears don't draft a tight end in the draft, but I will be surprised if they grab one in the first round that isn't Ebron. He is the one player in this group who has the athleticism and the production to justify such a pick. The Bears goal-line offense would be otherworldly with Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett, and Ebron. Any of the other names would be useful enough later on.

Wide Receiver
Players on Roster: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Marquess Wilson, Josh Morgan, Domenik Hixon, Eric Weems, Josh Bellamy, Chris Williams
Roster Analysis: Emery has done a nice job creating competition for Wilson at the #3 spot with Morgan and Hixon both featuring extensive NFL experience. Weems recently took a pay cut, something that should ensure that he returns as a core special teamer. Either one of Morgan or Hixon will get cut or the team will carry six receivers.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: Round 4 or later: Allen Robinson (Penn State), Martavis Bryant (Clemson), Jordan Matthews (Vanderbilt), Dri Archer (Kent State)
Draft Analysis: If one of that trio slips into the fourth round or later, the Bears should consider pouncing. Otherwise, stay away from the true receivers. Now, time for an exception: Archer. He's a scat-back in the mold of Darren Sproles, a blazingly fast undersized utility back. If Archer remains on the board in the fourth round or later, the Bears should go for it.

Offensive Tackle
Players on Roster: Jermon Bushrod, Jordan Mills, Eben Britton, James Brown, Joe Long, Rogers Gaines
Roster Analysis: Bushrod was excellent in 2013 and while Mills struggled at times, he was nonetheless a solidifying addition. There's reason to hope for some improvement there. Britton was a nice depth addition and played regularly as a sixth lineman; Brown has been around for a few years now.
Draft Need: 4
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Jake Matthews (Texas A&M), Taylor Lewan (Michigan). Rounds 3 or later: Morgan Moses (Virginia), Cyrus Kouandjio (Alabama), Seantrel Henderson (Miami).
Draft Analysis: Matthews would be tempting at #14; I have to mention Lewan because everybody else loves him, even though I'm not all that impressed. Moses is a massive prospect who generates conflicting reviews. Kouandjio and Henderson receive mention because they are former top prospects who showed flashes in college while also exhibiting significant red flags. The team that drafts Henderson will either obtain a massive value or release him within 15 months.

Interior Offensive Line
Players on Roster: Kyle Long (G), Matt Slauson (G), Roberto Garza (C), Brian de la Puente (C), Taylor Boggs (C)
Roster Analysis: The starting lineup inside looks very strong with Long an immediate hit, Slauson a revelation after coming over from the Jets, and Garza remaining steady as his career winds down. de la Puente was a huge get late in free agency given his years of starting experience with current Bears Offensive Coordinator Aaron Kromer.
Draft Need: 1
Potential Draft Targets: Rounds 4 or later: Brandon Thomas (Clemson), Trai Turner (LSU).
Draft Analysis: Drafting a center is completely unnecessary given the presence of Garza and de la Puente. de la Puente is probably the top interior reserve right now, and given the presence of a long snapper on the roster as well, bringing in another lineman who needs to make the roster seems foolish. If Thomas plummets after tearing his ACL this spring or Turner drops after entering the draft too soon, the Bears could scoop up one of the pair in the later rounds, effectively giving the prospect a redshirt year in 2014 before expecting some contribution in 2015. That likely requires an assumption that Long will bump outside in 2015. Grabbing an interior lineman just isn't a good use of scarce resources.

Defensive End
Players on Roster: Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Cornelius Washington, David Bass, Austen Lane, Tracy Robertson, Trevor Scott
Roster Analysis: How quickly things change. Allen, Houston, and Young should all receive significant snaps. Washington and Bass both showed some flashes last year in limited opportunities while the final trio will serve as camp bodies.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina - I wish). Round 2: Kony Ealy (Missouri), Stephon Tuitt (Notre Dame). Round 3: Scott Crichton (Oregon State), Dominique Easley (Florida), Kareem Martin (North Carolina).
Draft Analysis: If Clowney slips to even #4, I'd be extremely tempted to offer our 2014 and 2015 #1 picks to get him. It won't happen, but it's a nice dream. Ealy, Crichton, Easley, and Martin are all quicker pass rushers who could develop into every-down players. Tuitt is the anomaly, a very large DE similar to Houston. Emery has shown a willingness to bring in big athletes on the defense as opposed to guys who fit one particular spot. Drafting an oversized defensive end in the Houston mold would give the Bears tons of flexibility in pass rushing situations, enabling the team to move Houston and Tuitt inside on obvious throwing downs with Allen, Young, and even new linebacker Shea McClellin rushing from the outside. The flexibility could be attractive. I'd be surprised if a later-round selection was used on a DE as it would represent punting on Washington just one year after using a sixth-round choice on him.

Defensive Tackle
Players on Roster: Stephen Paea, Jeremiah Ratliff, Nate Collins, Israel Idonije
Roster Analysis: I still like Paea quite a bit, in spite of his injury concerns, and he is primed to have a nice season in his contract year, particularly with improved play from the ends next to him. Ratliff was a pleasant addition last year, although he is clearly on his last legs. Collins and Idonije are merely depth.
Draft Need: 9
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Aaron Donald (Pittsburgh). Round 2: Ra'Shede Hageman (Minnesota), Louis Nix (Notre Dame), Timmy Jernigan (Florida State), Ego Ferguson (LSU), Anthony Johnson (LSU). Round 4 or later: DaQuan Jones (Penn State), George Uko (USC)
Draft Analysis: The Bears might survive 2014 without adding a starting-caliber DT to the roster in the draft, but I'd be absolutely floored if they attempted to do so especially given major health concerns for all of the top three on the depth chart. Donald has skyrocketed up draft boards and may be gone before the Bears pick. If that's the case, expect the Bears to either trade down in Round 1 or draft elsewhere. Round 2 appears to be the place to look for a DT with as many as six prospects possibly available in the round. The club really should add a DT, but thanks to an active offseason, only one DT is needed.

Outside Linebacker
Players on Roster: Lance Briggs, Shea McClellin, Khaseem Greene, Jordan Senn, Jerry Franklin, Lawrence Wilson
Roster Analysis: Briggs is at the end of an illustrious career and he's really the only thing holding this group together. Having said that, McClellin is a lock to make the team given his contract, Greene was last year's fourth-round-pick, and Senn was brought in to be a special teams ace. The Bears need to get better at OLB, yet four jobs appear relatively safe.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 2: C.J. Mosley (Alabama)
Draft Analysis: It makes little sense to use a late-round pick on an OLB with Greene and Senn both on the roster. As such, only a slipping Mosley is truly attractive as he could replace Briggs in the long-term while being a situational player as a rookie. Insert generic warning about banged-up Alabama prospects here.

Middle Linebacker
Players on Roster: D.J. Williams, Jon Bostic
Roster Analysis: Williams was a solid starter before tearing his pectoral last year whereas Bostic appeared overmatched at times despite superior athleticism. The hope here is that Bostic can wrestle the job away from Williams at some point this year, perhaps even in camp.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: N/A
Draft Analysis: There just isn't a true MLB worth taking.

Cornerback
Players on Roster: Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, Kelvin Hayden, Isaiah Frey, Sherrick McManis, Derrick Martin, C.J. Wilson, Sean Cattouse, Derricus Purdy, Demontre Hurst
Roster Analysis: Tillman is back for a victory lap (makes me happy!), Jennings is a solid #2, Hayden and Frey provide good depth, and the rest of the guys are likely to be forced out.
Draft Need: 10
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Justin Gilbert (Oklahoma State), Darqueze Dennard (Michigan State), Kyle Fuller (Virginia Tech), Bradley Roby (Ohio State), Jason Verrett (TCU). Rounds 2-3: Keith McGill (Utah), Stanley Jean-Baptiste (Nebraska), Dontae Johnson (N.C. State), Philip Gaines (Rice), Marcus Roberson (Florida), Jaylen Watkins (Florida).
Draft Analysis: McGill and Jean-Baptiste both have the kind of size the Bears have traditionally preferred from their corners (both 6'3", over 210 lbs.), but Gilbert, Dennard, Fuller, and Roby all have plenty of size too. Verrett is the one truly small prospect worth of consideration given his excellent skill set, although the size would be enough to keep me away. Regardless, there is a heaping pile of cornerback depth in this draft, depth that should be the strongest factor pushing Emery to consider trading down. The Bears should be able to grab a 2015 starter in one of the first three rounds and perhaps even later.

Safety
Players on Roster: Chris Conte, Ryan Mundy, M.D. Jennings, Craig Steltz, Danny McCray
Roster Analysis: I still love Conte. Then again, I thought that Brandon Hardin was a bigger, stronger, faster version of Conte; shows what I know. Anyway, the Bears need to count on a rejuvenated Conte playing as a starter and they're likely planning on Mundy doing the same even though he seems like a tweener. There is experienced depth here, although it's hardly comforting.
Draft Need: 7
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: HaHa Clinton-Dix (Alabama), Calvin Pryor (Louisville). Round 3 or later: Deone Bucannon (Washington State), Dion Bailey (USC), Ahmad Dixon (Baylor), Ed Reynolds (Stanford), Tre Boston (UNC), Antone Exum (Virginia Tech).
Draft Analysis: There's plenty of depth here as well, although Clinton-Dix and Pryor both have their flaws. Clinton-Dix doesn't have ideal speed for a centerfielder while Pryor is a bit undersized. Still, it certainly seems like the Bears can and should find a mid-round prospect here.

Specialists
Players on Roster: Robbie Gould (K), Tress Way (P), Drew Butler (P), Brandon Hartson (LS), Chad Rempel (LS)
Roster Analysis: Gould is a stud. The team is likely going to open up the punting job for a competition while the long snappers are keeping Patrick Mannelly's seat warm should he desire to return.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: N/A
Draft Analysis: There's no sense in drafting a specialist.

Summary
Based on the above, I have ranked the team needs in the following order:

Cornerback (10)
Defensive Tackle (9)
Tight End (8)
Safety (7)
Running Back (5)
Offensive Tackle (4)
Defensive End (2)
Outside Linebacker (2)
Quarterback (2)
Interior Offensive Line (1)
Wide Receiver (0)
Middle Linebacker (0)
Specialists (0)

None of this surprises me as it jives largely with what I've thought for months: the team needs a starting-caliber DT and more help in the secondary. With that in mind, here's what I'd like to see at each pick assuming the club holds on to all of their selections:

#14: CB Kyle Fuller (Virginia Tech)
#51: DT Timmy Jernigan (Florida State)
#82: CB Dontae Johnson (N.C. State)
#117: TE Xavier Grimble (USC)
#156: OT Seantrel Henderson (Miami)
#183: S Antone Exum (Virginia Tech)
#191: RB Marion Grice (Arizona State)

Truth be told, I'd prefer that the Bears spend more value on linemen, but this is just how it broke down for me. The secondary gets a major infusion that is much needed. Jernigan should be a rotation piece from Day One. Grimble, Henderson, and Grice are challenge pieces for Aaron Kromer and Marc Trestman to develop. Exum would probably need something like a redshirt season, but that's fine given some useful depth at safety. Fuller and Jernigan would be a nice haul up top and that's most important.