Previewing Season One for Matt Campbell at Penn State

Boy, this feels weird. I watched a long interview that Josh Pate had with James Franklin recently. It was bizarre seeing Franklin wearing Virginia Tech maroon and orange and discussing his time at Penn State in the past tense. It simply wasn't that long ago that #3 Penn State held the lead over #6 Oregon in overtime with the Ducks facing a fourth down to potentially end the game. We all know what happened next: Oregon scored, then scored again, then Drew Allar threw a dart at Dillon Thienemann, then Penn State tried to sleepwalk through a game against UCLA at the Rose Bowl, then Allar's ankle exploded at the end of a brutal home loss to Northwestern that spelled the end of Franklin's tenure.

Since then, it has truly been a rollercoaster. On the negative side, the 2026 and 2027 recruiting classes vanished, AD Pat Kraft bungled the search for Franklin's successor, and numerous elite-level recruits exited via the Transfer Portal, gutting the roster. On the plus side, Iowa State's Matt Campbell fell into Kraft's lap as the new head coach, Franklin's insatiable appetite to continue coaching saved the football program something like $40M when he settled his buyout to take the VT job, Campbell brought two dozen experienced starters with him from Ames, and Campbell miraculously nabbed a pair of 4* DEs in the 2026 recruiting class, securing the pledge of Elijah Reeder and keeping Jackson Ford in the fold.

Campbell's 2027 class looks underwhelming with only seven 4* verbals to date, but it's hard to judge him too harshly in that respect. He needs to coach some games in State College while recruiting talent simultaneously to judge his recruiting prowess, meaning that the Class of 2028 will be the primary evaulation tool.

Thankfully, the 2026 season happens first. And it's going to be a wild ride. Here's a look at the roster followed by a season prediction.

OFFENSE

Campbell brought offensive coordintor Taylor Mouser with him from Iowa State. Mouser's story is hilarious in much the same way that Eric Murphy's story is hilarious in Entourage. Mouser was working at a Little Ceasar's in Arizona when Campbell offered him a graduate assistant gig at Toledo back in 2015, and Mouser has been attached to Campbell ever since. The Iowa State tight end room speaks highly of Mouser's abilities as a coach, and he'll have the chance to show that he is a talent on the rise with the increased talent level awaiting him in State College.

Quarterbacks

Full disclosure: I wish that Ethan Grunkemeyer was still at Penn State. Instead, longtime Iowa State QB Rocco Becht will start for the Nittany Lions. When he starts against Marshall, it'll be his 40th collegiate start. Becht has a limited ceiling, but as Penn State fans know, ceiling isn't everything: teams led by Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford were more productive than teams led by Christian Hackenberg and Drew Allar despite their 5* pedigrees. There is a ton of pressure on Becht to produce, but even more pressure on him to stay healthy. His backups are Division III transfer SR Connor Barry and RS FR Alex Manske, himself an ISU transfer returning from injury for fall camp. If Becht goes down, the season likely goes down with him.

I expect that Penn State's 2027 starter isn't currently on the roster. Ugh. Welcome to the new world of college football.

Running Backs

This room looks...fine. ISU transfer Carson Hansen reminds me of Akeel Lynch, a solid but unspectacular back. Ohio State transfer James Peoples may be a tick more explosive, but he's hardly a top back. SO Quinton Martin Jr. is the home run threat, so the hope is that the staff finds touches for him. Once again, the Portal will factor into the 2027 RB room.

Wide Receivers

This group is tougher to read. Experienced ISU transfers Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen should lead the way, but it's SO Koby Howard that offers the big-play ability. The WR room has been underwhelming for many years now. Expect that to continue...unless Campbell's black magic with WRs came with him to State College. His work with prior collegiate receivers is very exciting.

Tight Ends

This room looks awfully similar to what it has been in recent years. Even with Luke Reynolds following Franklin to Blacksburg, ISU transfers Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle are hulking athletes and holdover Andrew Rappleyea offers a third big-time athlete in the group. Expect a lot of 12 and even some 13 personnel. All three should hear their names called in the next two NFL Drafts.

Offensive Line

This isn't the best offensive line that Penn State has had in recent years, but this should be a strong group with the chance to be among the best groups in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions return a pair of starters on the right side with Anthony Donkoh at RT and Cooper Cousins at RG. RS FR Malachi Goodman grabbed the LT job early and didn't let it go. He follows in a long line of top LT prospects in State College. The Portal filled the spots next to him with RS JR Trevor Buhr coming from ISU an C Brock Riker arriving from Texas State. The first unit should be good and has a chance to be very good.

Ah, but the depth. The depth is poor. The second-team line -- going left-to-right, that's Owen Aliciene, Will Tompkins, Dom Rulli, Chimdy Onoh, and Garrett Sexton -- has almost no experinece whatsoever and underwhelming recruiting profiles compared to prior versions of the Nittany OL.

The Penn State offense can probably absord one injury. Two or more will be devastating.

Defensive Line

Yikes. My team-building philosophy isn't complicated: if you dominate up front, you'll probably win. Recent top-level PSU teams have been driven by elite offensive and defensive lines. You can't discuss recent squads without discussing the likes of Micah Parsons, Abdul Carter, and Dani Dennis-Sutton. There's only one player on the entire team with that kind of ceiling: RS SO DE Max Granville, who is returning from a summer 2025 injury that wiped out his last year. He'll line up behind SO Yvan Kemajou and RS SO Ike Ezeogu. Is a three-man rotation enough at DE? Simply put, no. So, Penn State needs (i) tremendous health, and (ii) the emergence of an unexpected player or two at DE.

The picture is even darker at DT. Campbell hammered the Portal such that his top three DTs are transfers: RS SR Keanu Williams, RS SR Siale Taupaki, and RS SO Armstrong Nnodim. None of them have huge ceilings. Penn State needs something unexpected here, but it's more likely that Ford, Liam Andrews, or Lavar Arrington II pops at DE.

Linebackers

Unlike on the DL, there is both ceiling and depth here led by stalwart Tony Rojas and ISU transfer Kooper Ebel. They'll be backed up by Caleb Bacon and Cael Brezina. If Alex Tatsch successfully returns from injury, one or more LB may need to push for reps at DE to get on the field.

Secondary

There are enough bodies here to feel really good about this group. Outside, Audavion Collins and Daryus Dixon lead the way with Josh Johnson and Jahmir Joseph behind them. In the slot, Zion Tracy should be a plus full-time player. The safety depth isn't quite as developed, but Jeremiah Cooper is back from injury, Marcus Neal looks like a star in the making, and Jamison Patton and Vaboue Toure offer experienced depth.

Specialists

Ryan Barker is back to handle the kicking after a strong 2025. Transfer Nathan Tiyce should handle the punting. Tiyce will have a hard time matching up with the elite punters before him, but I don't know enough about him to know whether he has the leg to do so.

Overall Thoughts

It's very hard to get a good feel for this team. By my count, Penn State lost 45 players via the Transfer Portal while adding 38. That's a lot of turnover. The number of new faces should make Campbell putting his stamp on the roster even tougher, though it helps that he brought so many of those faces with him.

In my view, this team has a limited ceiling in large part because the OL and DL look good, not elite, and seriously lack depth. There don't appear to be any gamebreakers in the WR or RB rooms, so Penn State's path to success will be fueled by playing dependable complementary football instead of playmaking football. That's a risky proposition against top opponents. Thankfully...

Schedule

My. God. This isn't supposed to be able to happen in the Big Ten in 2026. No Ohio State. No Oregon. No Indiana. That's three of the top-five teams in Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings heading into the season. The only other Big Ten team to avoid the conference's big three is Wisconsin, but the Badgers open their season against #3 Notre Dame. Penn State's non-conference schedule is an abomination and the conference schedule is about as easy as it can get in 2026.

Unfortunately, I don't think that Campbell and his roster will be ready to attack this roster as effectively as, say, the 2019 or 2024 Penn State teams would have. And, unfortunately, it's a one-year-only blip: Penn State travels to Oregon and Indiana in 2027 and hosts all three of Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State in 2028. Those teams could be considerably better than the 2026 squad, but they face much tougher roads to the postseason by virtue of their brutal schedules.

Back to 2026. I looked at advance Vegas odds once a few weeks ago, but I don't remember what they said. So, here's a walk through the schedule with my take on Nittany's win expectancy across the contests:

• Sep 5 vs Marshall: 99%
• This should be a cakewalk with an amped-up and focused PSU team.
• Sep 12 @ Temple: 98%
• Incredible that this is a true road game. Should still be a clear victory.
• Sep 19 vs Buffalo: 99%
• Avoiding a noon kick trap game is the only test here.
• Sep 26 vs Wisconsin: 80%
• Luke Fickell must be desperate in Madison. His defense looks OK but the offense looks awful. This has 20-6 slugfest written all over it. I expect that Iowa @ Michigan gets the Big Noon slot while Oregon @ USC gets a big evening time slot, so this game could be the premium Big Ten game in the 3:30pm slot.
• Oct 2 @ Northwestern: 65%
• A Friday road trip to another time zone against a team opening their new fancy stadium? Yikes! I expect that Northwestern will pull out all of the stops for this one. This presents a big test for Campbell...
• Oct 10 vs USC: 60%
• ...but not as big of a test as this one! This should be the Whiteout. Much like the Oregon Whiteout last year, Penn State gets a West Coast team traveling 2,000 miles for a college football game. It should be a massive advantage. And USC hasn't been nearly as good as Oregon in recent years. Alas, Penn State doesn't look nearly as good as recent Penn State teams either. It's entirely possible that USC is favored by the time this game rolls around. The Trojans will have played consecutive home games against Oregon and Washington before this contest, so they could be beat up.
• Oct 17 @ Michigan: 5%
• Until proven otherwise, Penn State will lose at the Big House. Deeper analysis suggests that this should be a close game. But Paterno struggled in Ann Arbor and Franklin never won a trip there (I don't count the 2020 exhibitions), getting blown out every time. Campbell has to do it.
• Oct 31 vs Purdue: 95%
• Purdue is in a bad spot at the bottom of the Big Ten. Coming off of a bye, Penn State should be able to blow out the Boilermakers.
• Nov 7 @ Washington: 35%
• Demond Williams is very good and should be a problem for many opponents this year, especially teams traveling 2,000 miles to play the Huskies. I expect this to be a close game that has significant bearing on where Penn State plays in January, if at all.
• Nov 14 vs Minnesota: 80%
• I feel good about this one. If this game was on the road? Yikes. But at home, I feel good.
• Nov 21 vs Rutgers: 90%
• Greg Schiano has made Rutgers into a tough out again. Also, Penn State is 33-2 all-time against the Scarlet Knights, winning 18 straight contests.
• Nov 28 @ Maryland: 85%
• Maryland looks OK from a talent perspective, but Penn State should be rolling here whereas Maryland will return home from a trip to the Coliseum that probably won't be very fun.

Adding up those percentages yields 8.91 wins, so let's call that 9-3. Frankly, 9-3 would be a disappointing season against this schedule. If Campbell gets this team to 10 wins, they probably have a 30% chance of making the CFP; the schedule is poor but the Committee tends to like teams with double-digit wins.

If things go well, it'll be because...

1. Becht stays healthy all year. (or, you know, Barry is the 2026 Trindad Chambliss)
2. The beefy Penn State DL that struggles to generate pass rush devours opposing rushing attacks, keeping Penn State in favorable spots against run-heavy teams like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Purdue.
3. One or more of Granville, Ford, and Arrington forces his way into a big role thanks to prodigious pass rush production.
4. Mouser leans into the offensive skill position players on his roster by either (i) featuring the TEs heavily, or (ii) getting a breakout performance from Howard or one of the younger WRs.

If things go poorly, it'll be because...

1. Becht gets hurt. Duh.
2. The OL proves to be merely solid instead of plus turning the easier-looking games into slogs.
3. Nobody emerges at WR forcing the offense through the RBs and TEs exclusively; Penn State has already tried this unsuccessfully in recent years.
4. The team stumbles early against Wisconsin or Northwestern, causing things to snowball the wrong way. Obviously a stumble against an earlier opponent would be disastrous, not just poor.

I'm in a weird spot as a fan. I'm low on this Penn State team, feeling like they're probably an 8-4 squad. That's either because they have underwhelming talent at key spots -- namely DT, DE, and WR -- or because there's a ton of unknowns in light of the coaching changes and Portal activity. Obviously I'm hoping for option #2. The schedule certainly sets up to give this team a chance for a special regular season.

In the end, here's what I see:

• Gloomy: 6-6 (it's a real slog)
• Rosy: 11-1 (avoid the traps, split the trips to Ann Arbor and Seattle, run the table at home)
• Expectation: 9-3 (losses to USC, Michigan, and Washington)
• Going 9-3 against this schedule likely renders PSU as the 8th best team in the Big Ten behind Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Washington, Michigan, USC, and Iowa, landing in the same tier as Nebraska and Illinois. Bleh.

An 11-1 Penn State team likely hosts a first round CFP game. A 9-3 team has a 0% chance of making the CFP, instead settling for a January trip to Florida.

Here's hoping for some more wins in 2026 than in 2025!

Well, Jed Hoyer Certainly Had a Trade Deadline

Perhaps more than any other team in MLB, the 2026 Chicago Cubs approached the Trade Deadline last Monday with incredible clarity. The position players are elite, producing three more fWAR than the next closest group, the dreaded Dodgers. But the pitching? Yikes! Between injuries -- so, so many injuries -- and some ineffectiveness, Cubs pitchers produced a bottom-five fWAR through July.

And man, those injuries. It has been insane. The Cubs' Injured List pitching staff is undeniably a playoff-caliber collection of talent. For reference, a healthy starter should have thrown 120-130 innings thus far (Shota Imanaga is at 132.2 IP and Colin Rea is at 117.2 IP despite a few relief appearances) whereas a healthy reliever should be at roughly 50 innings (Jacob Webb is at 50.2 IP). Here's the brutal injury story:

Starters

1. Justin Steele (0 IP this year)
2. Cade Horton (7.1 IP this year)
3. Ben Brown (pitched like an ace...but only for 68.0 IP)
4. Matthew Boyd (72.2 IP this year)
5. Edward Caberera (72.1 IP this year)

Relivers

1. Daniel Palencia (16.2 IP this year)
2. Hunter Harvey (4.0 IP this year)
3. Riley Martin (8.1 IP this year)
4. Phil Maton (27.2 IP this year...and they've been terrible)
5. Hoby Milner (35.2 IP this year)
6. Porter Hodge (0 IP this year)

It's tough. Nevertheless, with the team on track to reach the Postseason but severely lacking in playoff-caliber pitching (apologies to David Peterson, who has been plenty solid!), Jed Hoyer had a clear mission: bring in the arms. And bring in the arms he did, acquiring multiple playoff-caliber starters and an ascending reliever to complement the current roster. To be clear, the 2026 Cubs will benefit in a huge way.

So why in the world am I grumpy about this?

Let's say your spouse sends you to the grocery store and says "I need a gallon of organic whole milk." If you go to a corner store, its entirely plausible that there will be one or even zero options, forcing you to pay whatever price is demanded. Don't do that! Thankfully, if you have a Meijer or other similar large retailer available, you can head to that store and find yourself bombarded with quality options. I like to imagine Jed Hoyer holding a crisp $20 bill in his pocket and looking at the milk refrigerator. There are so many options. Option A costs $7, Option B costs $8, Option C costs $6, Option D costs $18, Option E costs $19, and Option F costs $3. Maybe Option D came from the rolling hills of Northern England, Option E offered small-batch milk, and Option F was stomped on a few times so the carton was dented. I don't know. In any event, Jed surveyed the field and must have said, "welp, I can only see Options D and E working for my family." Never mind that Options A, B, and C were all available, absolutely did the job, the store was willing to sell them, and they cost dramatically less. But let's start with Option F.

Hoyer made his best trade in years on Sunday, acquiring playoff starter Kevin Gausman from Toronto for Ty Southisene and Brett Bateman. Gausman arrived alongside his hefty salary -- $23M in 2026 -- so it seems that Hoyer put the Ricketts family money to good use in absorbing this contract. Admittedly, Gausman is 35 and showing some modest signs of slipping from his peak, namely a slight uptick in HR/9 and a slight drop in his fastball velocity from about 94.5 mph down to 93.9 mph. These will be problems for Gausman's agent selling his client on the open market this winter, but 2026 Gausman is largely unaffected, pitching to a tasty 3.50 FIP and amassing 2.6 WAR across 127.1 IP in his age-35 season. He's a playoff starter with a plus fastball and a devastating splitter. With all due respect to Southisene and Bateman, they are horribly flawed prospects with 20-30 grade power such that even their plus speed will likely limit them to bench roles if they mature as hoped. I suspect that Toronto's management required GM Ross Atkins to unload Gausman's money, forcing his hand. Hoyer pounced.

Grade: A

Hoyer next made the same kind of deal, shipping homeless IF Jonathon Long and RHP Jace Beck to Miami for former top-10 pick LHP Braxton Garrett. This transaction is a bit more complicated than the one above, but it follows the same basic approach: trade a flawed prospect who projects as a backup-only player for someone at a desperately-needed spot now. Garrett's 2026 has been a mess coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2024 that also knocked him out for 2025. Despite a rocky climb through the Marlins' system, Garrett was a good Major League pitcher in 2022-23, and it's not crazy to think that he could be so again, either now or in his next two arbitration years. This isn't a marquee acquisition, but it's a great trade.

Grade: A-

And then Jed kept dealing. On Monday afternoon, shortly after acquiring Garrett, Hoyer agreed to acquire RHP Ryan Zeferjahn from the Angels. In a vacuum, acquiring Zeferjahn is good. He's a reliever and the Cubs desperately need more of those. And Zeferjahn does throw really hard with a sweeper that breaks a ton! He even strikes out a ton of batters, checking in at nearly 13 per nine innings this year! Unfortunately, Zeferjahn has a few warts that bear mentioning:

1. He has a subpar pedigree. He was drafted at #107 in 2019 and signed below slot, then peaked at #44 on Boston's prospect list in 2021.
2. Walks. My God. In Zeferjahn's last minor league season (2023), he walked 7.83 per nine. He slowly cut that number, but he still has a dreadful 5.40 BB/9 rate this year.
3. Recent value. Zeferjahn was terrible in 2025, posting -0.6 WAR for the Angels, placing 144th among 147 qualified relievers last year. He surely would've cost peanuts in the offseason.
4. Role. On an Angels team with no dedicated closer (six different Angels have combined for 14 total saves this year), Zeferjahn pitched in the middle innings.

Which brings us to the problem here: the cost. Zeferjahn was Option D among the milks above. He cost $18 and it makes no sense that he did. To get him, Hoyer parted with Moises Ballesteros. Ballesteros has had an underwhelming year, no doubt. He found himself hitting in the cleanup spot in Chicago and he was playing in Iowa by early July. Ballesteros struggled to hit his way on base and to get his plus power to show up in Major League games. But he did all of this in his age-22 season! And just three months ago, he was the club's #1 prospect, ranking #43 in MLB, a few spots ahead of Toronto SS Arjun Nimmala (#49). Had Ballesteros struggled a year at Triple-A, this deal could've made some amount of sense. But he didn't. Ballesteros is $18 of value traded for $5 of value, and that makes absolutely no sense. To make matters worse, Nimmala -- in the midst of an average season at Double-A -- was traded alongside some filler to the Angels for controllable playoff starter Jose Soriano a few hours earlier, someone who was surely a top Cubs target. And it's even worse because the Cubs added sweetener to the deal in the form of Mason McGwire. McGwire is no top prospect; instead, he's Zeferjahn in three years if everything goes right. He's a $1 or $2 throw-in...but why are the Cubs sending the throw-in here? It makes no sense. The only thing that prevents an F grade here is the fact that Zeferjahn is a pitcher and Ballesteros is not.

Grade: D-

And then Jed went even bigger. Ugh. Clay Holmes is a good MLB pitcher. After a strong run of relief pitching for the Yankees from 2021-24, Holmes moved to Queens and the starting rotation and delivered a nice season for the Mets in 2025. But to be clear, "nice" doesn't mean "great" here. Holmes has never had a season of even 2.0 WAR, he's rehabbing a broken leg at the time of this trade, and he's an impending free agent. Even if Holmes comes back this weekend (as hoped) and pitches well for the Cubs, it's impossible for him to produce a ton of value, regardless of role. Tyrone Taylor came alongside Holmes and offers a plus short-side platoon bat in the corner OF. That's nice to have, especially with Ian Happ cratering, but as an impending free agent himself, Taylor surely didn't cost that much. Which brings us to the cost: the Cubs' new #1 prospect and #47 overall SS Jefferson Rojas. A prospect of Rojas's caliber brings back one of two things in a trade: a star or a good controllable piece. Somehow, inexplicably, Rojas brought back neither. It sure seems like Mets POBO David Stearns set a sky-high price and Hoyer blinked.

It is impossible to overstate just how disastrous this trade was. In terms of prospect value, the Cubs could have added Rojas and Ballesteros together to get in the conversation for Tarik Skubal, another impending free agent but also a two-time defending Cy Young winner, not a nice #4 starter or swingman like Holmes. And consider this: at the time of the 2021 trade that sent Javier Baez to New York, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranked #201 overall on Fangraphs and somewhere well outside of the top-100 on MLB.com, behind other Cubs non-elite prospects like Brennen Davis, Cristian Hernandez, James Triantos, Caleb Kilian, and Jordan Wicks. PCA was seen as having an elite glove and a terribly troubling offensive profile that risked scuttling the whole operation. The only concern about Rojas is his ultimate ceiling. Will he get to enough power and show enough range to be an All-Star, or will his slight limitations render him only an average starter on the dirt? Regardless of the answer, he's an immensely valuable prospect with a dramatically higher floor than most players traded at the deadline, he's a consensus top-100 prospect, and most folks see him among the top 50 prospects in baseball.

Even with an important arm coming back in the form of Holmes, this is such a drastic overpay that it's impossible not to fail.

A final note: I've seen lots of commentary about how Rojas won't have a role in Chicago because of the significant contracts held by Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner. To which I say this: hogwash. Rojas could cook for all of 2027 and look to make the Majors in 2028, at which point Swanson will be 34 with only two years left on his deal, Hoerner will admittedly be 31 with five years left on his disastrous extension, and Bregman will be 34 with three years left on his deal. It's entirely foreseeable that Swanson or Bregman (or *gasp* both) will have slowed down considerably by 2028, requiring a new SS to carry the mantle or to spell them a few times a week at the very least. And Pedro Ramirez had no path to the roster this year, yet he already has 117 PAs on his way to something in the neighborhood of 250 PAs. Playing time opens up for good players.

When the 2015 Cubs had Rizzo-Baez-Russell-Bryant across the infield, they didn't tell Ben Zobrist to pound sand because they were all set; they added another awesome player to the mix and it made all the difference en route to a championship. Apologies to Tommy La Stella.

The farm system is now completely barren on the dirt, particularly on the left side. Ramirez is a 2B-only glove. James Triantos is a fringe MLB player and 2B-only with the glove, too. After them, Josiah Hartshorn is the only other top-20 organizational prospect who projects to play on the infield, and even Hartshorn is already limited to 1B in A-ball.

The Cubs had a bevy of outfielders from which to deal, led especially by Kane Kepley and Kevin Alcantara. Surely some sellers would have been interested in those two, perhaps even the Tigers, who also shipped out rental Casey Mize for a relatively middling package headlined by San Diego LHP Kash Mayfield. That kind of price would've been appropriate for a rental.

Rojas for Holmes and Taylor? Not so much.

Grade: F

Hoyer's trade history during his time atop the Cubs' organization was already poor before this deadline. The Gausman deal suggested that he was on a different path and the Garrett deal was a shrewd follow-up. But then it all fell to pieces and culminated in his new worst move as POBO. Brutal.

A Brutal Start to the Rebuild for the Vancouver Canucks

Most of my sports allegiances make enough sense to the people around me. The one that makes the least sense? Vancouver Canucks hockey. The story is simple enough: I fell in love with Pavel Bure in the aftermath of the 1994 Stanley Cup Finals, fueled by the arrival of a Super Nintendo and NHL94 into the formative years of my childhood. My fandom only grew from there, continuing through the ill-fated arrival of Mark Messier, the once-in-a-lifetime maneuvering at the 1999 Draft that brought the Sedin twins to Vancouver, the West Coast Express era, the Todd Bertuzzi-Steve Moore incident, the Luongo trade, the run of Blackhawks-Canucks series, the slow dismantling of the President's Trophy teams into a middling club, the out-of-nowhere 2024 playoff run, and 10 Canucks games in person (seven in Detroit, three in Chicago) with probably thousands experienced between internet radio and, eventually, TV (thanks, ESPN+).

This year was something else. It seems like a distant memory, but the team actually got off to a solid start, finding themselves at 9-9-2 at the season's quarter pole. From there, the season tumbled into the dumpster in spectacular fashion: the club shipped superstar D Quinn Hughes to Minnesota for a solid return including projected top D Zeev Buium, 2C Marco Rossi, former 1st rounder F Liam Ohgren, and a late 2026 1st rounder, going 16-40-6 over their last 62 games. In an NHL landscape dominated by parity, the Canucks landed with just 58 points, 14 points behind 31st place Chicago.

What was it all for? As it turns out, not much!

The Canucks lost the lottery, watching 2016 lottery winner Toronto (Auston Matthews) and 2024 lottery winner San Jose (Macklin Celebrini) jump them despite considerably longer odds. It is particularly galling in Toronto's case: participating in their first lottery since 2016, Toronto will secure the services of Yukon native and former Penn State star Gavin McKenna. San Jose is at the end of their highly successful rebuild, once that will be finished off by the arrival of Swedish sensation Ivar Stenberg. Unfortunately for the Canucks, the drop-off from #2 to #3 is massive.

My brother lamented that the Blackhawks also dropped a pair of spots relative to their place in the standings. I found it difficult to share much sympathy: the Blackhawks have enjoyed five distinct lottery successes since the institution of the lottery system in 1995. While some wins weren't particularly meaningful -- I'm looking at you, 1999, when the Blackhawks jumped from 8th to 4th to select Pavel Brendl! -- they jumped from 5th to 1st for Patrick Kane in 2007 and 3rd to 1st for Connor Bedard in 2023. The Blackhawks have already enjoyed a lifetime of lottery success.

I know that the Canucks haven't. But this sent me down a rabbit hole: just how poorly has the Draft lottery gone for the Canucks? So here goes. This post will now morph into a history of the Canucks in the NHL  Draft lottery. If you're also a Canucks fan, avert your eyes! The list will show the Canucks' odds of obtaining the #1 overall pick along with the position of their odds in parentheses.

• 2026: 25.5% odds of staying at #1 (1st)
• Result: Dropped two spots to #3
• 2025: 1.1% odds of moving up to #5 (15th)
• Result: stayed at #15
• 2024: not a participant
• 2023: 3.0% odds of moving up to #1 (11th)
• Result: stayed at #11
• 2022: 1.1% odds of moving up to #5 (15th)
• Result: stayed at #15
• 2021: 5.4% odds of moving up to #1 (9th)
• Result: stayed at #9
• 2020: not a participant
• 2019: 5.0% odds of moving up to #1 (9th)
• Result: Dropped one spot to #10
• 2018: 7.5% odds of moving up to #1 (6th)
• Result: Dropped one spot to #7
• 2017: 12.1% odds of #1 (2nd)
• Result: Dropped three spots to #5
• 2016: 11.5% odds of #1 (3rd)
• Result: Dropped two spots to #5
• 2015: not a participant
• 2014: 6.2% odds of #1 (6th)
• Result: stayed at #6
• 2013: not a participant
• 2012: not a participant
• 2011: not a participant
• 2010: not a participant
• 2009: not a participant
• 2008: 2.1% odds of moving up to #1 (10th)
• Result: stayed at #10
• 2007: not a participant
• 2006: 0.5% odds of moving up to #1 (14th)
• Result: stayed at #14
• 2005: 2.1% odds of #1 (15th)
• Result: Jumped to #10
• The 2005 lottery was bonkers following the lockout. Four teams had 6.3% odds of #1, 10 teams had 4.2% odds, and the remaining 16 teams had 2.1% odds. So while the Canucks did climb from a 16-way tie for the 15th-best odds, not even the NHL considers this a win due to the largely flat structure of the lottery.
• 2004: not a participant
• 2003: not a participant
• 2002: not a participant
• 2001: not a participant
• 2000: unknown odds of moving up to #1 (11th)
• Result: stayed at #11
• 1999: 16.9% odds of moving up to #1 (2nd)
• Result: Dropped one spot to #3
• 1998: 10.8% odds of #1 (4th)
• Result: stayed at #4
• 1997: 0.5% odds of moving up to #1 (10th)
• Result: stayed at #10
• 1996: not a participant
• 1995: not a participant

There it is. Across 32 lotteries, the Canucks have "enjoyed" the following results:

• Jumped: 1 (sort of -- see 2005 above)
• Stayed: 10
• Dropped one spot: 3
• Dropped two spots: 2
• Dropped three spots: 1
• Not a participant: 15

OK. The results aren't great! But are they really that bad? Yes. Yes they are, for a few reasons:

1. The number of "not a participant" years above is deceptively bad. While the NHL currently features 32 teams with 16 playoff squads and 16 Draft lottery participants, that wasn't the case in the early days of the lottery. When the lottery was first instituted, only 10 of the NHL's 26 teams participated. 61.5% of the NHL teams made the playoffs back then. Given the impact of league expansion in the following years, you'd expect the Canucks to have made the playoffs in roughly 18 of the last 32 years. 15 is below average.
2. The one time that the Canucks "jumped" was so weird that the league doesn't even count it as a jump. Such is life in the post-lockout world.
3. The Canucks have never jumped in the 16 non-lockout lotteries, but they have dropped six times.
4. 1999, in particular, sticks out like a sore thumb. Brian Burke expertly navigated the Draft that year, making deals to acquire the #4 pick, turning it into the #1 pick, and ultimately settling with the #2 pick alongside the club's own #3 pick to nab both Sedin twins. But how much lower would the cost have been to the franchise had they landed at #2 or even #1 with their own pick? In the end, the cost to get #2 in 1999 and #67 in 2000 was (i) 24-year-old top-pairing defenseman Bryan McCabe, (ii) the #11 overall pick in the 2000 Draft, (iii) #75 in 1999, and (iv) #88 in 1999.
5. Nothing above hurts as much as this year. Falling to #3 in a two-player Draft likely sets the Canucks rebuild back at least another year. It's a brutal gut punch.

OK, that's enough for now. Tonight was a bad night for the Canucks. A really bad night. Instead of the rebuild getting turbocharged with a McKenna- or Stenberg-shaped puzzle piece entering the picture, the Canucks are tasked with building this thing up in the image of the Golden State Warriors, turning a bunch of non-elite picks into a somehow-elite roster. It's going to be seriously tough for whoever ends up helming the Canucks ship.

Grading the Chicago Bears Day Three of the 2026 NFL Draft and Roster Outlook

The 2026 NFL Draft is now in the books. Unfortunately, the Chicago Bears are still looking for an impact pass rusher.

Just kidding...but not really. With the overwhelming majority of free agency completed and the Draft now done, GM Ryan Poles somehow navigated the offseason without addressing the team's biggest concerns: a poor pass rush that generated the NFL's 22nd-ranked pressure rate and terrible run defense that permitted 5.0 yards per attempt, ranking 29th. Of note, the only four teams that allowed more yards per carry and their approach to the offseason:

• New York Giants: traded star DT Dexter Lawrence, but then drafted Ohio State Edge Arvell Reese at #5 and Auburn NT Bobby Jamison-Travis
• Cincinnati: signed DT Jonathan Allen and Edge Boye Mafe; traded #10 overall pick to Giants for DT Dexter Lawrence; used their top pick (#41) on Texas A&M Edge Cashius Howell
• Buffalo: signed Edge Bradley Chubb; used their top pick (#36) on Clemson Edge T.J. Parker and a 5th on Penn State DT Zane Durant

But the Bears? Well, you all know. It's bizarre at best and devastating at worst. Here's hoping for bizarre!

Let's look at Poles' work from Day Three of the Draft before turning to the roster for the 2026 season.

Bears Trade #129 and #144 to Carolina for #124 and #166

I liked this trade at first blush. The trade-up is modest, but this is always at a key point in the Draft when teams are still largely working off of tight lists of contributors before moving to dart throws in the rounds that follow. The Draft pick value charts largely agree, to wit:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 77 (43 + 34)
• Bears Get: 73 (48 + 25)
• NET: -4 (equivalent to an early-7th)
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 6.7 (3.7 + 3.0)
• Bears Get: 5.9 (3.9 + 2.0)
• NET: -0.8 (equivalent to a late-6th)
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 1,018 (537 + 481)
• Bears Get: 966 (557 + 409)
• NET: -52 (equivalent to one-quarter of the value of the Mr. Irrelevant pick)

The Bears gave away almost no value and got to get their guy. It's funny to me that all three charts dislike this move; to me, this is the right way to do it.

Grade: B+

#124: Bears Draft Texas CB Malik Muhammad

The DTs I liked the most were all gone, and the DEs that I liked at all were gone, too. So, we reached the true best-player-available phase of the Draft. And Muhammad fits that bill. Like many folks, I can't forget the visual of Muhammad grabbing all of Jeremiah Smith on a PBU way back in Week One, but he is a good looking prospect. The physical profile is strong (9.51 RAS) with elite speed and explosion leading the way, and Muhammad played a ton of football for the Longhorns over the last three seasons.

I do have questions about the roster impact. Muhammad is undeniably behind Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, and Kyler Gordon in the CB room. That likely leaves three spots for the four of Muhammad, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier, and Josh Blackwell. More on this below.

For now, Muhammad is a good player and presents strong value in this spot of the Draft. There's a good chance that he becomes a starter on his rookie deal, but the grade does take a gentle hit due to positional value to this Bears roster.

Grade: C+ (remember, that means a tick above average)

#166: Bears Draft Arizona State LB Keyshaun Elliott

I had to learn about Elliott after the Bears took him. Surprise surprise: he's a plus athlete (8.74 RAS) thanks to tremendous explosion, great agility, and above-average speed. Elliott doesn't look like an athletic freak, but after watching Tremaine Edmunds deliver average production despite freakish athleticism, that's fine.

Elliott should offer both linebacking depth and special teams ability from the jump. He doesn't look exceptionally fast on film, but he does look like a football player. I found his run defense plenty compelling, but his pass defense will need to develop. That's fine for a 5th rounder.

As with Muhammad, there's some pressure on other presumed roster players here, namely Noah Sewell as he recovers from his Achilles tear in December, returnee Jack Sanbord, and even 2025 4th-round flop Ruben Hyppolite. More on this below, too.

Grade: C (average)

Bears Trade #239 and #241 to Buffalo for #213

I liked this trade even better than the earlier one. The 7th round of the Draft is a cesspool. The top of the 7th and the late-6th, however, tend to offer a couple of useful players still. The Bears didn't need roster bodies; they needed to find someone who actually fit their profile and would likely be drafted.

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 2 (1 + 1)
• Bears Get: 5.8
• NET: 3.8 (equivalent to an early-7th)
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 0
• Bears Get: 0.5
• NET: 0.5 (equivalent to a late-6th (for free!))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 425 (225 + 220)
• Bears Get: 283
• NET: -142 (equivalent to two-thirds of the value of the Mr. Irrelevant pick)

The Bears gave away almost no value and got to get their guy to an even greater degree than earlier on Day Three.

Grade: A

#213: Bears Draft Georgia Tech DT Jordan van den Berg

Ironically, van den Berg is the Bears draftee that I've followed most closely -- despite being the last pick -- thanks to his three years at Penn State. The story on van den Berg then was easy: he was a freakish athlete who grew from WR to LB to DE to DT late in high school and early in college. After a pop year at Iowa Western, van den Berg tried to work his way into the Nittany DT rotation...and failed. So, off to Atlanta, where he found his way into a starting role and produced really solid results. His athleticism is unquestioned: his 10.00 RAS (not a typo) was the result of his good size, elite strength, elite explosion, and elite speed. He doesn't even need to be a start, but the path to playing time is entirely open for van den Berg. I love this pick. Would it have been better with another DT two days earlier? Of course! But that doesn't impact the value of adding van den Berg.

Grade: A

OK. The Draft is done. In response to a Bears writer on Twitter, I fired off a quick response as to what I would have done. Having chewed on it just a bit longer, for posterity's sake, here's what I would have liked to have seen the Bears do at each of their spots in the Draft. To keep things fair, I'll assume that I made the same trades that Poles did:

#25: Clemson DT Peter Woods

#57: Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren

#69: Penn State DE Dani Dennis-Sutton

#89: Southeast Louisiana DT Kaleb Proctor

#124: Auburn C Connor Lew

#166: Penn State DT Zane Durant

#213: Texas TE Jack Endries

The rationale for the above is obvious enough: the Bears don't have quality DTs and could really use a pass rushing boost inside. Proctor and Durant would displace Kentavius Street and James Lynch, but each of those signees leave just $100K of dead cap hit behind if cut. Lew fell due to an ACL tear in 2025, but the Bears don't need the center draftee to play in 2026, so they can wait and buy his upside.

Grading the Chicago Bears 2026 Draft Through Day Two: Cool, Cool, Cool...WTF?????

I guess the title really gives this one away. That's fine. I won't be the only Bears fan with this take.

Before grading the picks, there are two key issues to point out. 

1. No grade inflation here. A "C" is average. A "D" is below-average or poor. A "B" is above-average or good. An "F" is failing. An "A" is elite.
2. A General Manager's job isn't to make his coach happy; it isn't to take the best player at each Draft spot; it isn't to be the most efficient GM in free agency; it isn't to win trades by fleecing opposing GMs; and it isn't to save money for ownership. It's much simpler than that: a GM's job is to build a team that wins. There are lots of ways to do this, but don't lose focus: this is the job.

Before we advance, here's a reminder of how I conceived of the Bears' needs entering the Draft:

1. DT (by a mile)
2. S
3. C
4. DE
5. TE
6. WR
7. CB
8. LB
9. RB
10. G
11. OT

OK, with that in mind, let's evaluate Ryan Poles's work through Day Two.

#25: Bears Draft Oregon S Dillon Thieneman

Good. Thieneman was the second safety drafted and, alongside Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, comprised half of the clear second tier behind Ohio State star Caleb Downs. Poles sat tight at #25 and got his man. Thieneman began the crumbling of the James Franklin era last fall by showing off his trademark skill: his ability to read and even predict what opposing offenses would do. He was observably a key leader for the Oregon defense despite only spending a year there after transferring from Purdue.

Thankfully, this isn't an underwhelming athlete who produces thanks to his brain. Thieneman isl instead, a slightly undersized safety with ultra-elite athleticism. Given his experience, athleticism, and football intelligence, Thieneman looks like a surefire day one starter.

The value proposition is poor in two ways. First, safeties just don't go this high. Across the last seven Drafts, only five safeties have been drafted in the first round:

• 2025: Malaki Starks at #27
• 2022: Kyle Hamilton at #14, Daxton Hill at #31, and Lewis Cine at #32
• 2019: Jonathan Abram at #27

Yikes! Second, while the Bears desperately needed a starting-caliber safety, they figure to include someone named Neville Gallimore as well as Grady Jarrett's corpse heavily in their DT rotation. The opportunity cost of the Thieneman pick was massive, and it would surely make Poles desperate to find a DT on Friday.

At the time of the Thieneman pick, I didn't know that McNeil-Warren would be available at #57. That was a stunner. It certainly makes the value proposition of drafting Thieneman at #25, eschewing the remaining members of the top group of defensive linemen, even worse.

But, at its core, the Thieneman pick was a good one and Poles made it while sitting on his hands at #25. That's good business.

Grade: B

#57: Bears Draft Iowa C Logan Jones

Well this one is seriously hard for me to evaluate. The pros and cons are voluminous:

• PROS
• Jones is an Iowa OL. The success rate on those guys is outrageous.
• Despite being undersized, Jones is an ultra-elite athlete. For a team that asks its center to zone block and run like crazy, that athleticism is paramount.
• Centers always need a year to develop, so the only way to have an in-house C for 2027 is to get one now. Jones is an ideal backup before he steps in for Garrett Bradbury next year.
• Did I mention the Iowa part? At some point in the past few weeks, I told my brother that I liked Auburn's Connor Lew and Florida's Jake Slaughter a tick more...but I still wanted Jones because, well, give me the OL from Iowa every day.
• The comps to former Hawkeye Tyler Linderbaum and former Bear Drew Dalman are strong: somewhat undersized, shorter arms, and top-notch speed, explosiveness, and agility.
• Jones won the Rimington Trophy as college football's best center last year. Nice.
• Jones addresses a key need for the Bears.
• CONS
• This was an overdraft. Of the 10 major Draft evaluation services, one had him at #79, another had him at #89, and the rest had him between #95 and #99.
• If Poles was looking to get out in front of a run on centers, his misread the class. Lew and Kansas State's Sam Hecht remain available after 100 picks.
• Jones has arms that are nearly half an inch shorter than Linderbaum and Dalman.
• Jones turns 25 in October. Dang, that's old.
• He's a second-round pick who figures to ride the pine in 2026. That's just the nature of the center market, but it's a bummer not to get a player who will contribute this year.

Add it all up and what do you get? A reach but the right reach. A pick with warts but hope, too.

Grade: C

Bears Trade #60 to Tennessee for #69 and #144

Ah, the Poles Draft weekend trade returns! The three Draft charts provide dramatically different reads on this deal:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 300
• Bears Get: 279 (245 + 34)
• NET: -21 (equivalent to #176 (late-5th))
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 8.5
• Bears Get: 10.6 (7.6 + 3.0)
• NET: +2.1 (equivalent to #164 (late-5th))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 925
• Bears Get: 1,335 (854 + 481)
• NET: +410 (equivalent to #166 (late-5th))

So, two charts think the Bears picked up an extra 5th of value and one chart sees it the other way. In the end, the value is good, not great, but Poles is the GM holding the extra pick.

Grade: B

#69: Bears Draft Stanford TE Sam Roush

I love taking a TE here. I love taking an extremely athletic TE here. But Roush was not my guy. When I watch him, he seems a lot more like Cole Kmet than Colston Loveland, moving awkwardly with unimpressive body control despite his otherwise incredibly athletic testing. He's overdrafted here by a bit -- most services see him as a mid-to-late 3rd, not an early 3rd -- but this isn't an egregious miss.

He's a perplexing player. His PFF grades are terrible. His RAS (9.94) is nearly perfect. He has very similar testing numbers to what Kmet had with one glaring difference: Kmet had 33" arms (and Loveland had 32.75" arms) while Roush has 30.63" arms. Literally in the 1st percentile. What does that mean? His run blocking could be OK but his pass blocking should be a problem.

Roush should fulfill the blocking TE role in the run game with aplomb, and he should be able to play a key role in red zone settings as a run blocker and matchup problem. That's cool! It's just bizarre that his arms are so short such that pass blocking is likely a problem and perhaps not a solvable one.

Despite the generally positive commentary above, opportunity cost really rears its ugly head here. While I saw TE2/3 as a reasonably significant need, the absence of any defensive linemen from the class at this point kicked my concern level up in a big way.

Grade: C-

#89: Bears Draft LSU WR Zavion Thomas

Oh Ryan. Poles is good for one of these every class: an outrageously fast, athletic prospect who just isn't good at football. In 2022, it was old man WR Velus Jones at #71, who was a 25-year-old rookie. In 2023, it was former #1 prep defensive line recruit DT Zacch Pickens at #64. In 2024, it was OT Kiran Amegadjie at #75 (I'm still holding out hope that a healthy Amegadjie can find a role). In 2025, it was terrible LB Ruben Hyppolite, who was a 24-year-old rookie who played a ton of terrible football at Maryland but ran fast at his pro day.

Thomas now joins that ignominious group. Poles is 0-for-4 on the group above, so Thomas has his work cut out for him to make it 1-for-5.

Some folks will talk up the versatility that Thomas will bring to the offense, having taken carries from the backfield, caught passes in the flat and downfield, and returned kicks. All of that is cool, except that Thomas hasn't been particularly good at any of these things outside of kick returning. He does have a limited LSU pedigree, though, so that's nice; the track record of the LSU receiver room is elite. He just doesn't have the smooth football movement skills that would enable him to put his raw speed to work.

I'm OK with the Bears taking a WR in this Draft, but it's straight-up irresponsible to go C-TE-WR on Day Two given the state of the defensive line generally and the defensive tackle room specifically. Had this been UConn's Skyler Bell -- also an undersized WR who is an awesome athlete but one who has actually produced on the football field -- it still would've been irresponsible, but at least the player would've made sense at #89.

Thomas is a project who would've made a lot of sense 100 picks later. Remember that comment at the top about how the GM's job is to build a winning team? This is not a step in the right direction; it's organizational malpractice to set this pick on fire.

Grade: F-

Thankfully the Draft isn't done just yet. Before we wrap up, here are my top tagets for Day Three, where the Bears have picks #129, #144, #239, and #241, at least for now.

1. Penn State DE Dani Dennis-Sutton
1. Would've been great 40 picks ago.
2. Southeast Louisiana DT Kaleb Proctor
1. Rotation player only to start, but one that can rush the passer.
3. Oklahoma DT Grace Halton
1. Similar to Proctor.
4. Mississippi DT Zxavian Harris
1. Mountain of a man.
5. Clemson DT DeMonte Capehart
1. Yet another NFL player from this wildly underwhelming DL.
6. Penn State DT Zane Durant
1. Durant runs really well, but gets washed out of way too many plays.
7. Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy
1. His knee might explode soon, but at this point it's definitely worth the shot.
8. Penn State S Zakee Wheatley
1. Really don't need another S, but I sure love Wheatley.
9. Texas S Michael Taaffe
1. Looks like a future special teams captain.
10. Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton
1. This is a bet on the idea that James Franklin is bad at developing talent. Possible? Yep.
11. North Carolina State Justin Joly
1. TE4 is quite the luxury.
12. Texas TE Jack Endries
1. TE4 is quite the luxury.
13. USC S Kamari Ramsey
1. A good player.
14. Arizona S Genesis Smith
1. Another good player.
15. Baylor TE Michael Trigg
1. TE4 is quite the luxury.

The dream of finding a useful DE starts and probably ends with DDS. It's very hard to see him making it to #129. At least one DT, on the other hand, should find his way to #129. If that's the case, perhaps this whole thing can be salvaged.

Although I put Singleton and a batch of TEs on this list, please don't tame more offensive players, Ryan. The defense needs some love unless you're going to find a way to trade for Josh Sweat and sneak him under the salary cap. Let's just try drafting a defensive lineman instead!

Final Chicago Bears 2026 NFL Draft Preview: It's All About...Shemar Turner?

Huh? Yes, really. We'll get there in a minute.

I love that the Bears are picking 25th. Every time I see that, it fills my heart with happiness as I remember Ben Johnson's first season in Chicago featuring a NFC North Division crown and a Wild Card win over the hated Packers. The only downside of all of those wins is the late Draft pick. I'll take it!

There's no doubt that the Bears roster is dramatically more talented than it was a few years ago. There's no question about QB1 (Caleb Williams), the primary pass catchers (WR1/2 Rome Odunze, WR1/2 Luther Burden III, and TE1 Colston Loveland), the top offensive linemen (RT Darnell Wright and LG Joe Thuney), or the cornerback room (thanks to the presence of Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, Terell Smith, Josh Blackwell, and Zah Frazier, assuming he'll actually be back). Despite the convincing answers to the questions above, there are plenty of remaining questions. Starting with the most important and working down, here's how I see them:

    1. Who is bringing the juice on the defensive line? Hold this thought. We'll cycle back to it in a bit.

    2. Just how injured is Ozzy Trapilo? Teams generally telegraph their thinking via the free agency period. The Bears were no exception. After Trapilo took half of his rookie season to get on the field, he turned into a plus starting LT as a rookie. It was awesome...until his patellar exploded. He'll miss all of the 2026 season as a result. So, GM Ryan Poles found himself needing a new answer at LT, but the extent of the question wasn't clear: does Poles need to find a new LT for 2026 OR does Poles need to find a new LT for good? Well, the answer from free agency suggests the former. Poles opted to bring back former starter Braxton Jones on a one-year deal, now another year removed from ankle/fibula surgery. Prior to the surgery, Jones was decent as a pass protector but he possessed superb mobility; in 2025, not so much. But there's reason to believe that Jones can have a much better platform year in 2026 with improved health. Poles retained reserve LT Theo Benedet and also added former Cleveland first-round pick Jedrick Wills. All of this suggests to me that Poles sees Trapilo as his 2027 LT, which further suggests that it's unlikely that Poles invests a significant 2026 Draft pick in a LT.

    3. How important is safety in Dennis Allen's defense? While the Bears ponied up a huge deal for Coby Bryant to pry him away from Seattle (more on that deal below), they largely punted the other safety spot; Poles signed Buffalo's Cam Lewis to a modest two-year, $6M deal and brought back special teamers Elijah Hicks and Jaylon Jones on modest one-year deals. That's it for the room. Is safety so important that it justifies using a premium pick on the other starter, especially if one of my favorites like Toledo's Emmanuel McNeil-Warren or Oregon's Dillon Thieneman is on the board? Or is a mid-round target like Penn State's Zakee Wheatley or Arizona's Genesis Smith sufficient? The Bears will surely look to add a starter at safety, but at what cost?

    4. Will Cole Kmet be a Bear in August? I think so. I think the front office and coaching staff really love Kmet. I don't. I've always been underwhelmed by him, and Loveland's arrival really brought to light the extent of Kmet's shortcomings. He's not worth an $11.6M cap hit this year, at least not to the Bears, but there's no other TE2 on the roster. If an exciting TE prospect is available in an attractive spot this weekend, could Poles select his new TE2 and ship out Kmet to offload his cap number? I sure would! But that requires Vanderbilt's Eli Stowers making it to #57 (I'm obsessed with Stowers). Stowers is stylistically quite different from Kmet, but he's a dramatically better athlete who can pair with Loveland and let the Bears live in 12 personnel with outrageous matchup nightmares for opposing defenses.

    5. Does Johnson really care about WR3? The Bears will undeniably draft a wide receiver, but how important is the third man in the rotation? Any new WR will be well behind Odunze and Burden on the depth chart, and Johnson's former WR3 from Detroit, Kalif Raymond, reunited with his former coach to replace D.J. Moore. Raymond hasn't eclipsed 360 snaps in a season since 2022, so he's most likely suited for a WR4 role with Jahdae Walker behind him as WR5. But is WR3 coming in the second, third, fourth, or even seventh round?

    6. Is the starting weak-side linebacker already on the roster? I think so. Devin Bush will start inside. T.J. Edwards will start next to him if Edwards is healthy, but Edwards' fibula exploded in January; counting on him seems dicey. Thankfully D'Marco Jackson returned after an excellent season in limited duty. Free agency also brought back Jack Sanborn to join 2023 5th Noah Sewell and his torn Achilles in December as well as flop 2025 4th Ruben Hyppolite II. It's easy enough to envision Sewell and/or Hyppolite being jettisoned if an exciting young LB falls into Poles' lap this weekend, but the value proposition is too low given the current value of NFL linebackers and the immensity of the assets that the Bears have already poured into the position group.

Those questions are all useful, and we're going to revisit question #1...in just a moment. But first, a look at the free agency period. Remember: there's no grade inflation here, so a C is average.

C Drew Dalman Retires

Ugh. Brutal. Dalman was amazing in 2025 and looked like a long-term core piece.

Grade: :(

Bears Trade WR D.J. Moore and #163 to Buffalo for #60

Nice. The three main Draft charts look at this trade a bit differently. Here goes:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 26.2
• Bears Get: 300
• NET for Moore: 273.8 (equivalent to pick #63 (late-2nd))
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 2.2
• Bears Get: 8.5
• NET for Moore: 6.3 (equivalent to pick #85 (mid-3rd))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Sent: 419
• Bears Get: 925
• NET: 506 (equivalent to pick #137 (early-5th))

I mentioned in an earlier piece that the Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart isn't useful for evaluating trades at all: no NFL team would trade a 2nd for a pair of 5ths as the Chart suggests. Nevertheless, let's say that Poles got an early 3rd for Moore. That's solid. Moore still passed the eye test for the most part in 2025, but he's clearly fourth on Caleb Williams' priority list.

Grade: B-

Bears Trade 2027 5th to New England for C Garrett Bradbury

Oof. There were a lot of folks praising this deal as the Bears acquired a center who has recently worked with young QBs in JJ McCarthy in Minnesota in 2024 and Drake Maye in New England in 2025. Counterpoint: those teams saw Bradbury with their young QBs and punted him. I am not a fan of Bradbury or of trading picks for players like this. This is akin to the Ryan Bates acquisition. Surely the Bears hope that Bradbury is their fifth-best OL; I don't like that.

Grade: D

Bears Sign S Coby Bryant to a three-year, $40M deal with $25.75M guaranteed

Two different pieces here. First, the player. Bryant is good. He just turned 27. He played 1,800 strong snaps over the past two years, and he's plus against the run and in coverage. But then there's the contract. Big. Time. Oof. The safety market was outrageously flooded, yet Poles jumped to the top. The Bears' 2025 starters both hit free agency and the combined AAV for Kevin Byard in New England and Jaquan Brisker in Pittsburgh is less than Bryant's with only one-year deals. Yikes! The verdict on Bryant: good player, terrible contract.

Grade: D+

Bears Sign ILB Devin Bush to a three-year, $30M deal with $21M guaranteed

Bush gets my least favorite type of a deal: a big, multi-year guarantee for a guy coming off of three straight one-year deals for $8.25M total. Bush was awesome in 2025 and appears to have fully resurrected his career, but the dollars are huge. Good player, risky deal.

Grade: C

Bears Sign DT Neville Gallimore to a two-year, $12M deal with $5M guaranteed

OK, this is really a one-year deal, but the dollars make no sense. Gallimore has never been good; he couldn't even make it through camp with the Dolphins in 2024. That's very recent. I don't know what he does well. He's probably DT5 if everything breaks right, and this is way too much money for that.

Grade: D-

Bears Sign LB D'Marco Jackson to a two-year, $7.5M deal with $3.625M guaranteed

This deal confused me, but finally, it was in the Bears' favor! Jackson was great in a limited role last year, and he comes with tons of experience with Dennis Allen. I thought he'd get something like Gallimore's deal on the open market. This is a strong deal.

Grade: A-

Bears Sign LT Braxton Jones to a one-year, $5M deal with $3M guaranteed

Superb work here. Jones is an awesome insurance policy, a former solid starter who commanded a very slight guarantee. He's an ideal bridge and the dollars are paltry for a real LT.

Grade: A

Bears Sign S Cam Lewis to a two-year, $6M deal with $2.75M guaranteed

Lewis lacks pedigree and has never been great, but he held up reasonably well in extended action in Buffalo over the 2024-25 seasons. This is a good insurance policy, too.

Grade: B+

Bears Sign DE Daniel Hardy to a two-year, $5M deal with $2.45M guaranteed

Hardy is a terrible DE, but he's truly elite on special teams. This is the going rate for a special teams stud. So be it.

Grade: C+

Bears Sign S Elijah Hicks, G Jordan McFadden, OT Jedrick Wills, DT Kentavius Street, S Jaylon Jones, DT James Lynch, and OLB Jack Sanborn to one-year deals

Cool. I do like Hicks and Jones being back.

Grade: C

It was a bizarre trip through free agency with some excellent deals (Jackson, Jones) and a real head-scratcher (Gallimore). On the whole, it's fine.

OVERALL GRADE: C

OK. We've taken a long time to get to this point. The condition of the roster is relatively clear: the offensive skill players are awesome, the offensive line is in good shape, the secondary is in good shape save for S2, the linebackers are solid...and the defensive line is in desperate need of a talent boost. But how will those spots be prioritized? It breaks on one question:

    Why did the Bears move Shemar Turner to defensive end?

Full disclosure: I don't know! Turner was very bad in limited action last year, both inside and out. He was a healthy scratch through Week Two, then he played just 74 defensive snaps the rest of the way before suffering a season-ending ACL tear in Baltimore in October. But here's what stands out: before the Week Five Bye, Turner played 38 snaps, 33 of them at DT and five at DE. After the Bye, Turner played 36 snaps, all of them at DE. 

Why? From my vantage point, there are three possibilities:

1. The Bears think Turner stinks.
1. This possibility would be disappointing for a rookie 2nd rounder. If it's the case, moving Turner was likely in an effort to jumpstart him, regardless of positioning. That would stink.
2. The Bears decided that Dayo Odeyingbo stunk and they needed a different DE opposite Montez Sweat.
1. Distinctly possible! Odeyingbo had a terrible season before tearing his Achilles the week after Turner's ACL tear. So, could Turner's move have been in an effort to push Odeyingbo to the bench? Maybe!
3. The Bears decided that they like Turner better at DE than DT.
1. Also distinctly possible! The Bears talked up Turner's history at DE, and he possesses the body type that Dennis Allen prefers on the edge.
2. Turner's history plays in here, too. He was a 270 lbs. DE at Texas A&M before Nic Scourton arrive from Purdue in 2024. With Shemart Stewart at the other DE spot, Turner's path to playing time involved a lot of Chipotle en route to a 30-pound weight gain. If Turner is more comfortable at 270, he's a DE, no doubt.

As you can probably tell, I'm partial to option #3. What does that mean? Well, here's the DE group with Turner included:

1. Montez Sweat
2. Dayo Odeyingbo (when healthy)
3. Austin Booker
4. Shemar Turner
5. Daniel Hardy

Hey, not bad! And the DT depth chart:

1. Gervon Dexter Sr.
2. Grady Jarrett
3. Neville Gallimore
4. Kentavius Street
5. James Lynch

Hey, that's...oof, that's actually terrible. And, to make matters worse, Dexter is an impending free agent and Jarrett will likely be cut next March before he turns 34 in April, leaving just $4M of dead cap hit. That means the DT room is functionally empty 11 months from now.

Add it all up and here's how I see the Bears' needs entering the Draft:

1. DT (by a mile)
2. S
3. C
4. DE
5. TE
6. WR
7. CB
8. LB
9. RB
10. G
11. OT

With that laid out, here are the players that I like for the Bears at the various Draft locations where the Bears currently have picks, with my absolute favorite players in bold.

1. #25
1. Clemson DT Peter Woods
1. This placement comes with controversy. Woods was mediocre in 2025. Why? Maybe he's not as good as he used to be. Maybe his short arms were exposed. Or maybe it was the result of new DC Tom Allen pushing him out of his 3-technique role into two-gap jobs that minimized his skills. If that's the case and Woods is the plug-and-play stud 3-tech he appeared to be at this time last year, he'd be a massive steal at #25. I'd take that chance.
2. Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald
1. You have to be a star as a two-down player to justify a 1st-round pick. And McDonald is a superstar against the run. He'd be quite the salve for a defense that stunk against the run last year.
3. Auburn DE Keldric Faulk
1. Faulk is a lab-generated DE for DA. He's big, he's long, he's fast, and he's awesome against the run. He's underwhelming as a pass rusher, but he's also still 20. There's an enticing ball of clay here.
4. Clemson DE T.J. Parker
1. Parker is a good prospect. His 2025 was a huge disappointment, but if he was able to enter the Draft after his 2024 season, he'd be a top-10 lock.
5. Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
1. Man. I love EMW. He's an athletic freak and a true thumper with plenty of speed to be a star. He comes with tons of experience and production. I don't love the value of a S here, but EMW is so cool.
1. Side note: I emailed my brother on December 29th when I started Draft prep and said this: "I only love two safeties in this class: Thieneman and McNeil-Warren. Getting either would be awesome. Getting both? I'd expect a lot of three safety sets for DA." That mock draft on PFF allowed me to take Thieneman at #57 and EMW at #89. Now that would be a dream come true!
6. Oregon S Dillon Thieneman
1. I loved Thieneman when I started my Draft prep months ago and he was pegged as a late-2nd. He's too good at football to last that long. He'd be a plug-and-play starter.
7. Georgia DT Christen Miller
1. I like Miller as a prospect. I don't love him. His physique is better than his football production, but there's a good ceiling here.
8. Miami DE Akheem Mesidor
1. Mesidor was the best DE in college football last year. He's also 25. He carries the heft that Dennis Allen wants. I don't now where to put him.
9. Penn State G Olaivavega Ioane
1. Also a luxury pick. Ioane is awesome. Could Thuney or Jackson play C in 2027 so Ioane could play G? Hmmm.
10. Georgia OT Monroe Freeling
1. I don't think that the Bears will take an LT. If they do and Freeling is there, he'll be the pick.
11. Utah OT Caleb Lomu
1. If not Freeling, then Lomu.
12. Clemson CB Avieon Terrell
1. My favorite CB with a shot to get to 25, Terrell is a great prospect at a position that isn't nearly as important as DT, S, or DE.
13. Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq
1. He's an athletic marvel. Too luxurious for the Bears, though.
14. Florida DT Caleb Banks
1. An athletic freak at a position of need, Banks has such a dreadful injury history that he just can't be the pick here.
15. Missouri DE Zion Young
1. He's long and rangy with adequate athleticism, but off-field problems and imperfect athleticism push his value way down. He'd be a reach at #25.
16. Players to avoid:
1. Texas A&M DE Cashius Howell: crazy short arms -- he needs to play in a 3-4
2. Alabama LT Kadyn Proctor: terrible fit for the Bears
3. Georgia LB CJ Allen: a solid LB, he's not worthy of a 1st and doesn't offer good value here
4. Any WR (asset allocation concerns)
2. #57/#60
1. Penn State DE Dani Dennis-Sutton
1. A perfect fit for the Bears as a rangy, hyper-athletic edge with tons of collegiate production. He likely needs to add a bit of weight, but not a ton. If the 1st rounder is a DT, DDS is firmly atop the list here.
2. Illinois DE Gabe Jacas
1. A good prospect. He's a pure pass rusher at this point who needs to get a lot better against the run.
3. Iowa State DT Domonique Orange
1. Big Citrus would be fun. He's a massive human being who would surely help the Bears' run defense in a big way.
4. UCF DE Malachi Lawrence
1. Lawrence may not have enough size to play DE for the Bears. If not, he's out. If yes? He's a freakish athlete with long arms, so sign me up.
5. Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers
1. Positional value be damned. I love me some Stowers. He'd form a devastating receiving tandem with Loveland.
6. LSU S A.J. Haulcy
1. An LSU safety who is good and experienced? Yes please!
7. Iowa OL Gennings Dunker
1. An excellent RT in college for the best offensive line who projects as an interior OL in the NFL. If he can play C, he'd be near the top of this list as a versatile backup in 2026 while he learns C.
8. Arizona S Treydan Stukes
1. His position is unclear, but his athleticism isn't. He's a superb athlete who has played all over the field.
9. Oklahoma DT Gracen Halton
1. An incredibly quick part-time player with short arms, Halton is an undersized rotation piece as an interior pass rusher. He will not help the run defense.
10. Clemson WR Antonio Williams
1. A poor man's Luther Burden III. Williams gets open by being quick and precise. He's undersized and I worry about his run blocking, but he's a plus member of a passing offense.
11. Georgia WR Zachariah Branch
1. Branch is tiny, but he's incredibly twitchy with remarkable production: he turned 93 targets into 81 receptions this year. Wow! As a bonus, he's already hauled in 32 collegiate passes from Caleb Williams.
12. Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez
1. Everyone loves him and he tested way better than expected.
13. North Dakota State WR Bryce Lance
1. Crazy athlete. Extremely productive. FCS player who doesn't look as fast on film as he tested. Very interesting prospect nonetheless.
14. Players to avoid:
1. Florida State DT Darrell Jackson Jr.: he looks so bad to me for a crazy athlete
2. Northwestern OT Caleb Tiernan: makes me sad, but he looks much too stiff to play OT in the NFL
3. Michigan DE Derrick Moore: what if Lawrence was less athletic?
4. Texas Tech DE Romello Height: lighter than Leonard Floyd
5. Cincinnati DT Dontay Corleone: He's a fun story, but the arms are very short and there's lacking quickness.
3. #89/#129
1. Southeastern Louisiana DT Kaleb Proctor
1. It's easy to fall in love with the small school guys. It helps that Proctor (i) showed elite athleticism in his testing, (ii) and showed out against LSU in a real game. He's undersized at 290 lbs., but no crazily so.
2. He's basically the only DT I like in this range.
2. Penn State S Zakee Wheatley
1. Tons of production, tons of experience, and plenty athletic. This is a good spot for him and the Bears. He's a turnover machine.
3. Iowa C Logan Jones
1. A great zone scheme fit. An Iowa C.
4. Florida C Jake Slaughter
1. Just as good as Jones, except he didn't play at Iowa.
5. Auburn C Connor Lew
1. A great looking prospect who tore his ACL last fall. Very young.
6. Kansas State C Sam Hecht
1. There's basically no gap between Hecht and Jones. All four of these guys are good prospects.
7. Duke OT/C Brian Parker II
1. The next Graham Barton? Not that good but the price will be much lower.
8. USC S Kamari Ramsey
1. A good, rangy player.
9. Arizona S Genesis Smith
1. A good, younger prospect who appears to be ascending.
10. Texas LB Anthony Hill Jr.
1. Crazy athlete at a good spot.
11. Ohio State TE Max Klare
1. Yet another option for a crazy pass-catching TE tandem with Loveland.
12. Florida OT Austin Barber
1. Probably a swing tackle, but there's lot of experience and surprising athleticism here.
13. Boston College OT Jude Bowry
1. It wouldn't hurt to go back to the BC well when hunting for an OT, right? Bowry does look similar to Trapilo.
14. Washington CB Tacario Davis
1. Reminds me a Zah Frazier with his rangy frame. Coming off of some rough years.
15. Missouri DT Chris McClellan
1. Looks like just a guy, but the Bears need a few guys.
16. Texas S Michael Taaffe
1. Not a great athlete, but looks like a football player, would play special teams, and has captain material if he can stick on the field.
17. Alabama DE LT Overton
1. Probably a run-stopping DE for the Bears.
18. Texas TE Jack Endries
1. Not a crazy athlete, but an experience, productive TE in a true in-line role.
19. Alabama OLB Deontae Lawson
1. A solid LB prospect.
20. TCU WR Eric McAlister
1. He looks good enough.
21. Michigan TE Marlin Klein
1. Below Endries and McAlister, but he's a pretty solid prospect.
22. UConn WR Skyler Bell
1. I wanted to like him a lot. Instead, he was...fine.
23. Players to avoid:
1. Auburn DE Keyron Crawford: man, he just looks skinny.
2. Georgia State WR Ted Hurst: crazy fast, but I dislike everything else about how he moves.
4. #239/#241
1. Ha!

Alright, time to wrap this up with a final mock draft. Let's go!

Bears trade #25 to Miami for #30 and #75

This is the kind of trade that I could see the Bears making. The Dolphins? Not so much. But dropping just a bit while there are a ton of DL on the board is a good choice. (Miami came up for Kaydn Proctor. OK, maybe they could).

#30: Clemson DT Peter Woods

Perfect. This is a bet that Woods is still an awesome 3-tech forced into a different job in 2025 through no fault of his own. I made the pick even though there were seven trade offers. Seven!

#57: Illinois DE Gabe Jacas

This pick came down to Jacas or Dani Dennis-Sutton. DDS is a better run defender. Jacas is a decidedly better pass rusher. Gotta get that QB!

Bears trade #60 and #239 to Philadelphia for #68 and #98

There were a ton of CBs on the board here that multiple teams wanted, but I wasn't one of them. This drop was sensible to turn a 7th into a 3rd.

#68: Iowa State DT Domonique Orange

Big Citrus, let's do this! Orange is a bet that his 2025 ankle injury sapped what could have been a huge year. If not, his backslide was perplexing. Still, there aren't a ton of people this size on the face of the planet.

#75: Auburn C Connor Lew

Lew is coming off of an injury and I just ranked him behind a few other available centers above. But dang, Lew is three years younger than Slaughter and Hecht and four years younger than Jones. Let's let him recover behind Bradbury and take the job in 2027.

#89: Penn State S Zakee Wheatley

Good size, decedent athleticism, and tons of experience. I hate that he's 24, but Wheatley is a plug-and-play starter at this pivotal spot. Cool.

#98: Mississippi WR De'Zhaun Stribling

I'm very surprised that PFF has Stribling outside of their top-100 prospects. Stribling has good size and tested extremely well. He is old, but his production was strong and there's plenty to like here.

#129: Texas TD Jack Endries

I found myself approaching this pick thinking "man, I really hope Endries or Klein makes it here." Well, here we are! Endries is a perfect addition to the TE room as TE3 in 2026 and TE2 in 2027 and beyond.

#241: Iowa WR Kaden Wetjen

I saw Wetjen score a touchdown. He's very fast, he's old, and he's OK at football.

Here's my proof:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, Case Keenum

RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Roschon Johnson

TE (3): Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet, Jack Endries

WR (6): Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Kalif Raymond, Jahdae Walker, De'Zhaun Stribling, Kaden Wetjen

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Ozzy Trapilo, Theo Benedet

G (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2): Garrett Bradbury, Connor Lew

DE (6): Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Shemar Turner, Gabe Jacas, Daniel Hardy

DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Neville Gallimore, Peter Woods, Domonique Orange

ILB (1): Devin Bush

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, D'Marco Jackson, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (5): Coby Bryant, Cam Lewis, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones, Zakee Wheatley

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

This roster is a bit underwhelming at RB. I think that Sewell will get cut with an injury settlement. Luke Newman loses his spot. The team has 24 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 on special teams; if Sewell comes out, we're back to the right number.

The defense gets a lot of help via this mock, but there's plenty for the offense to like, too. Go Bears!

Thoughts on the Chicago Cubs Extending Nico Hoerner (Yikes!)

I really like Nico Hoerner. That's no small feat. Despite his pedigree as the 24th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, I've never liked Hoerner's profile. It was always clear that he would be able to stick in the middle of a Major League infield, but his offensive profile looked shaky as a prospect, featuring top-notch contact skills but an inability to draw walks or hit for power. He showed tons of promise during his late-2019 cup of coffee with the Cubs, slashing .282/.305/.436 and popping three dingers across just 82 plate appearances while flashing the glovework that fueled his prospect star. Plenty to dream on there!

Then, across 296 plate appearances in 2020-21, Hoerner hit...zero bombs? Zero??? Zero. Yikes! He continually lowered his strikeout rate, but it was clear that power simply wouldn't be a part of his profile, but he did amass a combined walk rate of nearly 10% over that time suggesting that he'd be able to get on base with regularity.

Unfortunately, health concerns reared their head at this point. He missed two months in 2018 with an elbow injury, two more months in 2019 with a wrist injury, and almost all of 2021 with oblique injuries. Yikes! Thankfully, Hoerner has proved remarkably durable since then, including participating in 150+ games each year from 2023-25. To his credit, his health profile now looks promising.

But Hoerner is still a player who needs every bit of his athleticism because the profile only works with twitch and quickness. To his credit, it's a wonderful profile at its peak, where it has resided for the last four years: his twitchiness yields an elite glove, elite baserunning, and enough base hits (mostly singles) to get on base at an average clip. Although there's basically no power in his profile -- he has a sub-.100 ISO over the last three seasons -- the skills that he does have make him a star. Not a superstar but a star nonetheless.

So, his six-year, $141M extension should be a cause for celebration, right? WRONG! Even after deferrals make it more like $130M, this deal is an outrageous risk and a contract with a chance to torpedo the Cubs' chances as we move toward the 2030s. Maybe the Cubs didn't have a choice as next winter's free agent class looks terrible, so Hoerner figured to get a bag from someone. But the Cubs are biting off immense risk here.

Hoerner's profile is delicate. The speed? It's fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness. The defense? It's fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness. His contact tool? Hey, that's not fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness...but players with Hoerner's athleticism profile steal a lot of hits when their athleticism is at its peak but fewer as they age.

If Hoerner loses half a step, the whole profile wobbles. If he loses a whole step, the profile collapses. And there's nothing to fall back on at that point. There's no walk-fueled on-base ability and there's no power.

Yikes!

We've got plenty of players with profiles driven by speed, defense, and contact that lack walks and power. In considering comps for Hoerner's deal, four players came to mind, three of them ex-Cubs. And the results? Well, yikes!

Jason Heyward
The Heyward comp isn't the cleanest for a pair of reasons. First, Heyward had big power in his profile as a Braves prospect and showed above-average power in Atlanta and St. Louis before coming to Chicago. Second, Heyward always showed an above-average ability to draw walks. Nonetheless:

• Six years Pre-Cubs: .268/.353/.431, 118 wRC+, 86 SB, .309 BABIP
• Seven years with the Cubs: .245/.323/.377, 88 wRC+, 32 SB, .277 BABIP

Heyward's elite defense and baserunning pre-Cubs slipped to merely above-average defense and baserunning in Chicago. Add it all up and Heyward pumped out 25.3 WAR in his six years spent in Atlanta and St. Louis, then slipped all the way to 7.1 WAR in his seven years with the Cubs. Heyward gets something of a free pass because the 2016 Cubs won the World Series, but his contract was a disaster and it's fair to assume that his albatross of a deal played a role in the Ricketts family electing to blow up the core of the team in 2021.

Yikes!

Juan Pierre

Pierre and Hoerner don't have the exact same profile, but once again, the similarities are obvious. Pierre had an excellent start to his career through his 2006 season with the Cubs, riding his incredible speed and strong contact skills to a World Series win and a big five-year, $44M deal from the Dodgers before the 2007 season (that was a big deal at the time). When he had his legs, Pierre was productive. When the legs went, well, uh-oh:

• First seven years with Rockies/Marlins/Cubs: .303/.350/.377, 87 wRC+, 325 SB, .319 BABIP
• Seven years with the Cubs: .285/.334/.341, 84 wRC+, 289 SB, .303 BABIP

Pierre's offense hardly cratered, but his defense began to fail later in his career. The result? He amassed 16.6 WAR before free agency -- a 3+ WAR player on average is a very good starter -- but just 7.6 in the seven seasons afterward.

Like Heyward, that's an MLB player. But it's a backup, not a key starter.

Neifi Perez
One of my least favorite Cubs ever despite his limited run with the club. Perez isn't a story about a player whose profile fell apart as he aged. It's a story about a player whose profile throughout his career might show where Hoerner's profile is going. Perez was a truly dreadful offensive player throughout his career. In fact, his lone full season with the Cubs was the best season of his career. Ready for that offensive outburst? .274/.298/.383, good for a 72 wRC+. Woof. Perez's career line of .267/.297/.375 was good for a 58 wRC+, decidedly worse than the career figure of the explosive Ronny Cedeno and nearly identical to Carlos Zambrano (57), a pitcher with a 1.3% career BB%. So yeah, Perez was incredibly bad as a hitter. But he was an average runner and a plus-plus defender up the middle. Add it all up and you get a career WAR of -3.3 over 1,400 games. Replacement level.

Omar Vizquel

The only non-Cub on the list, Vizquel might offer the most appropriate comp. Vizquel began his career with an ultra-elite, historically great glove, plus baserunning, a solid hit tool, a solid ability to draw walks, and absolutely no power whatsoever. Throughout his run in Seattle and Cleveland, Vizquel was good or great every year using this profile. Then he got older and the profile collapsed as the offense vanished, even though his defense remained strong:

• With Seattle/Cleveland: .275/.341/.358, 87 wRC+, 318 SB, .296 BABIP
• Post-Cleveland: .264/.324/.335, 73 wRC+, 86 SB, .289 BABIP

Fueled by his ridiculous glove and a below-average but solid offensive profile, Vizquel proved useful if not terribly impactful, producing 36.2 WAR across his first 16 years. Then the legs went, the offense cratered, and he managed just 6.3 WAR in eight seasons after leaving Cleveland.

The saving grace with Vizquel? He left Cleveland after his age-37 season. If Hoerner remains productive through his age-37 season, the Cubs will be overjoyed. If we look to Vizquel's age-30 through age-35 seasons, we see a template for success: elite defense, plus baserunning, and a .286/.357/.383 batting line (95 wRC+) that added up to 18.0 WAR across six seasons.

Unfortunately, I worry that the six-year stretch for Vizquel above presents the dream scenario with the Cubs and Hoerner: his legs stick around just long enough to allow each part of his profile to play up and he remains highly productive while others carry the hefty offensive load.

Conclusion
It's worthwhile to put all four of the rosy stat lines next to each other -- no, there's no rosy stat line involving Neifi Perez -- so that they can be understood in concert, so here goes:

• Jason Heyward in six years Pre-Cubs: .268/.353/.431, 118 wRC+, 86 SB, .309 BABIP, 25.3 WAR
• Juan Pierre's first seven years with Rockies/Marlins/Cubs: .303/.350/.377, 87 wRC+, 325 SB, .319 BABIP, 16.6 WAR
• Omar Vizquel in 16 seasons with Seattle/Cleveland: .275/.341/.358, 87 wRC+, 318 SB, .296 BABIP, 36.2 WAR
• Nico Hoerner to date (seven seasons): .282/.339/.383, 103 wRC+, 131 SB, 19.7 WAR

I will remain outrageously hopeful that Hoerner follows in Vizquel's footsteps and not in those of Heyward, Pierre, or Perez. If he ends up succeeding the latter group, well...

YIKES!