Final Chicago Bears 2026 NFL Draft Preview: It's All About...Shemar Turner?

Huh? Yes, really. We'll get there in a minute.

I love that the Bears are picking 25th. Every time I see that, it fills my heart with happiness as I remember Ben Johnson's first season in Chicago featuring a NFC North Division crown and a Wild Card win over the hated Packers. The only downside of all of those wins is the late Draft pick. I'll take it!

There's no doubt that the Bears roster is dramatically more talented than it was a few years ago. There's no question about QB1 (Caleb Williams), the primary pass catchers (WR1/2 Rome Odunze, WR1/2 Luther Burden III, and TE1 Colston Loveland), the top offensive linemen (RT Darnell Wright and LG Joe Thuney), or the cornerback room (thanks to the presence of Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, Terell Smith, Josh Blackwell, and Zah Frazier, assuming he'll actually be back). Despite the convincing answers to the questions above, there are plenty of remaining questions. Starting with the most important and working down, here's how I see them:

    1. Who is bringing the juice on the defensive line? Hold this thought. We'll cycle back to it in a bit.

    2. Just how injured is Ozzy Trapilo? Teams generally telegraph their thinking via the free agency period. The Bears were no exception. After Trapilo took half of his rookie season to get on the field, he turned into a plus starting LT as a rookie. It was awesome...until his patellar exploded. He'll miss all of the 2026 season as a result. So, GM Ryan Poles found himself needing a new answer at LT, but the extent of the question wasn't clear: does Poles need to find a new LT for 2026 OR does Poles need to find a new LT for good? Well, the answer from free agency suggests the former. Poles opted to bring back former starter Braxton Jones on a one-year deal, now another year removed from ankle/fibula surgery. Prior to the surgery, Jones was decent as a pass protector but he possessed superb mobility; in 2025, not so much. But there's reason to believe that Jones can have a much better platform year in 2026 with improved health. Poles retained reserve LT Theo Benedet and also added former Cleveland first-round pick Jedrick Wills. All of this suggests to me that Poles sees Trapilo as his 2027 LT, which further suggests that it's unlikely that Poles invests a significant 2026 Draft pick in a LT.

    3. How important is safety in Dennis Allen's defense? While the Bears ponied up a huge deal for Coby Bryant to pry him away from Seattle (more on that deal below), they largely punted the other safety spot; Poles signed Buffalo's Cam Lewis to a modest two-year, $6M deal and brought back special teamers Elijah Hicks and Jaylon Jones on modest one-year deals. That's it for the room. Is safety so important that it justifies using a premium pick on the other starter, especially if one of my favorites like Toledo's Emmanuel McNeil-Warren or Oregon's Dillon Thieneman is on the board? Or is a mid-round target like Penn State's Zakee Wheatley or Arizona's Genesis Smith sufficient? The Bears will surely look to add a starter at safety, but at what cost?

    4. Will Cole Kmet be a Bear in August? I think so. I think the front office and coaching staff really love Kmet. I don't. I've always been underwhelmed by him, and Loveland's arrival really brought to light the extent of Kmet's shortcomings. He's not worth an $11.6M cap hit this year, at least not to the Bears, but there's no other TE2 on the roster. If an exciting TE prospect is available in an attractive spot this weekend, could Poles select his new TE2 and ship out Kmet to offload his cap number? I sure would! But that requires Vanderbilt's Eli Stowers making it to #57 (I'm obsessed with Stowers). Stowers is stylistically quite different from Kmet, but he's a dramatically better athlete who can pair with Loveland and let the Bears live in 12 personnel with outrageous matchup nightmares for opposing defenses.

    5. Does Johnson really care about WR3? The Bears will undeniably draft a wide receiver, but how important is the third man in the rotation? Any new WR will be well behind Odunze and Burden on the depth chart, and Johnson's former WR3 from Detroit, Kalif Raymond, reunited with his former coach to replace D.J. Moore. Raymond hasn't eclipsed 360 snaps in a season since 2022, so he's most likely suited for a WR4 role with Jahdae Walker behind him as WR5. But is WR3 coming in the second, third, fourth, or even seventh round?

    6. Is the starting weak-side linebacker already on the roster? I think so. Devin Bush will start inside. T.J. Edwards will start next to him if Edwards is healthy, but Edwards' fibula exploded in January; counting on him seems dicey. Thankfully D'Marco Jackson returned after an excellent season in limited duty. Free agency also brought back Jack Sanborn to join 2023 5th Noah Sewell and his torn Achilles in December as well as flop 2025 4th Ruben Hyppolite II. It's easy enough to envision Sewell and/or Hyppolite being jettisoned if an exciting young LB falls into Poles' lap this weekend, but the value proposition is too low given the current value of NFL linebackers and the immensity of the assets that the Bears have already poured into the position group.

Those questions are all useful, and we're going to revisit question #1...in just a moment. But first, a look at the free agency period. Remember: there's no grade inflation here, so a C is average.

C Drew Dalman Retires

Ugh. Brutal. Dalman was amazing in 2025 and looked like a long-term core piece.

Grade: :(

Bears Trade WR D.J. Moore and #163 to Buffalo for #60

Nice. The three main Draft charts look at this trade a bit differently. Here goes:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 26.2
• Bears Get: 300
• NET for Moore: 273.8 (equivalent to pick #63 (late-2nd))
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 2.2
• Bears Get: 8.5
• NET for Moore: 6.3 (equivalent to pick #85 (mid-3rd))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Sent: 419
• Bears Get: 925
• NET: 506 (equivalent to pick #137 (early-5th))

I mentioned in an earlier piece that the Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart isn't useful for evaluating trades at all: no NFL team would trade a 2nd for a pair of 5ths as the Chart suggests. Nevertheless, let's say that Poles got an early 3rd for Moore. That's solid. Moore still passed the eye test for the most part in 2025, but he's clearly fourth on Caleb Williams' priority list.

Grade: B-

Bears Trade 2027 5th to New England for C Garrett Bradbury

Oof. There were a lot of folks praising this deal as the Bears acquired a center who has recently worked with young QBs in JJ McCarthy in Minnesota in 2024 and Drake Maye in New England in 2025. Counterpoint: those teams saw Bradbury with their young QBs and punted him. I am not a fan of Bradbury or of trading picks for players like this. This is akin to the Ryan Bates acquisition. Surely the Bears hope that Bradbury is their fifth-best OL; I don't like that.

Grade: D

Bears Sign S Coby Bryant to a three-year, $40M deal with $25.75M guaranteed

Two different pieces here. First, the player. Bryant is good. He just turned 27. He played 1,800 strong snaps over the past two years, and he's plus against the run and in coverage. But then there's the contract. Big. Time. Oof. The safety market was outrageously flooded, yet Poles jumped to the top. The Bears' 2025 starters both hit free agency and the combined AAV for Kevin Byard in New England and Jaquan Brisker in Pittsburgh is less than Bryant's with only one-year deals. Yikes! The verdict on Bryant: good player, terrible contract.

Grade: D+

Bears Sign ILB Devin Bush to a three-year, $30M deal with $21M guaranteed

Bush gets my least favorite type of a deal: a big, multi-year guarantee for a guy coming off of three straight one-year deals for $8.25M total. Bush was awesome in 2025 and appears to have fully resurrected his career, but the dollars are huge. Good player, risky deal.

Grade: C

Bears Sign DT Neville Gallimore to a two-year, $12M deal with $5M guaranteed

OK, this is really a one-year deal, but the dollars make no sense. Gallimore has never been good; he couldn't even make it through camp with the Dolphins in 2024. That's very recent. I don't know what he does well. He's probably DT5 if everything breaks right, and this is way too much money for that.

Grade: D-

Bears Sign LB D'Marco Jackson to a two-year, $7.5M deal with $3.625M guaranteed

This deal confused me, but finally, it was in the Bears' favor! Jackson was great in a limited role last year, and he comes with tons of experience with Dennis Allen. I thought he'd get something like Gallimore's deal on the open market. This is a strong deal.

Grade: A-

Bears Sign LT Braxton Jones to a one-year, $5M deal with $3M guaranteed

Superb work here. Jones is an awesome insurance policy, a former solid starter who commanded a very slight guarantee. He's an ideal bridge and the dollars are paltry for a real LT.

Grade: A

Bears Sign S Cam Lewis to a two-year, $6M deal with $2.75M guaranteed

Lewis lacks pedigree and has never been great, but he held up reasonably well in extended action in Buffalo over the 2024-25 seasons. This is a good insurance policy, too.

Grade: B+

Bears Sign DE Daniel Hardy to a two-year, $5M deal with $2.45M guaranteed

Hardy is a terrible DE, but he's truly elite on special teams. This is the going rate for a special teams stud. So be it.

Grade: C+

Bears Sign S Elijah Hicks, G Jordan McFadden, OT Jedrick Wills, DT Kentavius Street, S Jaylon Jones, DT James Lynch, and OLB Jack Sanborn to one-year deals

Cool. I do like Hicks and Jones being back.

Grade: C

It was a bizarre trip through free agency with some excellent deals (Jackson, Jones) and a real head-scratcher (Gallimore). On the whole, it's fine.

OVERALL GRADE: C

OK. We've taken a long time to get to this point. The condition of the roster is relatively clear: the offensive skill players are awesome, the offensive line is in good shape, the secondary is in good shape save for S2, the linebackers are solid...and the defensive line is in desperate need of a talent boost. But how will those spots be prioritized? It breaks on one question:

    Why did the Bears move Shemar Turner to defensive end?

Full disclosure: I don't know! Turner was very bad in limited action last year, both inside and out. He was a healthy scratch through Week Two, then he played just 74 defensive snaps the rest of the way before suffering a season-ending ACL tear in Baltimore in October. But here's what stands out: before the Week Five Bye, Turner played 38 snaps, 33 of them at DT and five at DE. After the Bye, Turner played 36 snaps, all of them at DE. 

Why? From my vantage point, there are three possibilities:

1. The Bears think Turner stinks.
1. This possibility would be disappointing for a rookie 2nd rounder. If it's the case, moving Turner was likely in an effort to jumpstart him, regardless of positioning. That would stink.
2. The Bears decided that Dayo Odeyingbo stunk and they needed a different DE opposite Montez Sweat.
1. Distinctly possible! Odeyingbo had a terrible season before tearing his Achilles the week after Turner's ACL tear. So, could Turner's move have been in an effort to push Odeyingbo to the bench? Maybe!
3. The Bears decided that they like Turner better at DE than DT.
1. Also distinctly possible! The Bears talked up Turner's history at DE, and he possesses the body type that Dennis Allen prefers on the edge.
2. Turner's history plays in here, too. He was a 270 lbs. DE at Texas A&M before Nic Scourton arrive from Purdue in 2024. With Shemart Stewart at the other DE spot, Turner's path to playing time involved a lot of Chipotle en route to a 30-pound weight gain. If Turner is more comfortable at 270, he's a DE, no doubt.

As you can probably tell, I'm partial to option #3. What does that mean? Well, here's the DE group with Turner included:

1. Montez Sweat
2. Dayo Odeyingbo (when healthy)
3. Austin Booker
4. Shemar Turner
5. Daniel Hardy

Hey, not bad! And the DT depth chart:

1. Gervon Dexter Sr.
2. Grady Jarrett
3. Neville Gallimore
4. Kentavius Street
5. James Lynch

Hey, that's...oof, that's actually terrible. And, to make matters worse, Dexter is an impending free agent and Jarrett will likely be cut next March before he turns 34 in April, leaving just $4M of dead cap hit. That means the DT room is functionally empty 11 months from now.

Add it all up and here's how I see the Bears' needs entering the Draft:

1. DT (by a mile)
2. S
3. C
4. DE
5. TE
6. WR
7. CB
8. LB
9. RB
10. G
11. OT

With that laid out, here are the players that I like for the Bears at the various Draft locations where the Bears currently have picks, with my absolute favorite players in bold.

1. #25
1. Clemson DT Peter Woods
1. This placement comes with controversy. Woods was mediocre in 2025. Why? Maybe he's not as good as he used to be. Maybe his short arms were exposed. Or maybe it was the result of new DC Tom Allen pushing him out of his 3-technique role into two-gap jobs that minimized his skills. If that's the case and Woods is the plug-and-play stud 3-tech he appeared to be at this time last year, he'd be a massive steal at #25. I'd take that chance.
2. Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald
1. You have to be a star as a two-down player to justify a 1st-round pick. And McDonald is a superstar against the run. He'd be quite the salve for a defense that stunk against the run last year.
3. Auburn DE Keldric Faulk
1. Faulk is a lab-generated DE for DA. He's big, he's long, he's fast, and he's awesome against the run. He's underwhelming as a pass rusher, but he's also still 20. There's an enticing ball of clay here.
4. Clemson DE T.J. Parker
1. Parker is a good prospect. His 2025 was a huge disappointment, but if he was able to enter the Draft after his 2024 season, he'd be a top-10 lock.
5. Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
1. Man. I love EMW. He's an athletic freak and a true thumper with plenty of speed to be a star. He comes with tons of experience and production. I don't love the value of a S here, but EMW is so cool.
1. Side note: I emailed my brother on December 29th when I started Draft prep and said this: "I only love two safeties in this class: Thieneman and McNeil-Warren. Getting either would be awesome. Getting both? I'd expect a lot of three safety sets for DA." That mock draft on PFF allowed me to take Thieneman at #57 and EMW at #89. Now that would be a dream come true!
6. Oregon S Dillon Thieneman
1. I loved Thieneman when I started my Draft prep months ago and he was pegged as a late-2nd. He's too good at football to last that long. He'd be a plug-and-play starter.
7. Georgia DT Christen Miller
1. I like Miller as a prospect. I don't love him. His physique is better than his football production, but there's a good ceiling here.
8. Miami DE Akheem Mesidor
1. Mesidor was the best DE in college football last year. He's also 25. He carries the heft that Dennis Allen wants. I don't now where to put him.
9. Penn State G Olaivavega Ioane
1. Also a luxury pick. Ioane is awesome. Could Thuney or Jackson play C in 2027 so Ioane could play G? Hmmm.
10. Georgia OT Monroe Freeling
1. I don't think that the Bears will take an LT. If they do and Freeling is there, he'll be the pick.
11. Utah OT Caleb Lomu
1. If not Freeling, then Lomu.
12. Clemson CB Avieon Terrell
1. My favorite CB with a shot to get to 25, Terrell is a great prospect at a position that isn't nearly as important as DT, S, or DE.
13. Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq
1. He's an athletic marvel. Too luxurious for the Bears, though.
14. Florida DT Caleb Banks
1. An athletic freak at a position of need, Banks has such a dreadful injury history that he just can't be the pick here.
15. Missouri DE Zion Young
1. He's long and rangy with adequate athleticism, but off-field problems and imperfect athleticism push his value way down. He'd be a reach at #25.
16. Players to avoid:
1. Texas A&M DE Cashius Howell: crazy short arms -- he needs to play in a 3-4
2. Alabama LT Kadyn Proctor: terrible fit for the Bears
3. Georgia LB CJ Allen: a solid LB, he's not worthy of a 1st and doesn't offer good value here
4. Any WR (asset allocation concerns)
2. #57/#60
1. Penn State DE Dani Dennis-Sutton
1. A perfect fit for the Bears as a rangy, hyper-athletic edge with tons of collegiate production. He likely needs to add a bit of weight, but not a ton. If the 1st rounder is a DT, DDS is firmly atop the list here.
2. Illinois DE Gabe Jacas
1. A good prospect. He's a pure pass rusher at this point who needs to get a lot better against the run.
3. Iowa State DT Domonique Orange
1. Big Citrus would be fun. He's a massive human being who would surely help the Bears' run defense in a big way.
4. UCF DE Malachi Lawrence
1. Lawrence may not have enough size to play DE for the Bears. If not, he's out. If yes? He's a freakish athlete with long arms, so sign me up.
5. Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers
1. Positional value be damned. I love me some Stowers. He'd form a devastating receiving tandem with Loveland.
6. LSU S A.J. Haulcy
1. An LSU safety who is good and experienced? Yes please!
7. Iowa OL Gennings Dunker
1. An excellent RT in college for the best offensive line who projects as an interior OL in the NFL. If he can play C, he'd be near the top of this list as a versatile backup in 2026 while he learns C.
8. Arizona S Treydan Stukes
1. His position is unclear, but his athleticism isn't. He's a superb athlete who has played all over the field.
9. Oklahoma DT Gracen Halton
1. An incredibly quick part-time player with short arms, Halton is an undersized rotation piece as an interior pass rusher. He will not help the run defense.
10. Clemson WR Antonio Williams
1. A poor man's Luther Burden III. Williams gets open by being quick and precise. He's undersized and I worry about his run blocking, but he's a plus member of a passing offense.
11. Georgia WR Zachariah Branch
1. Branch is tiny, but he's incredibly twitchy with remarkable production: he turned 93 targets into 81 receptions this year. Wow! As a bonus, he's already hauled in 32 collegiate passes from Caleb Williams.
12. Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez
1. Everyone loves him and he tested way better than expected.
13. North Dakota State WR Bryce Lance
1. Crazy athlete. Extremely productive. FCS player who doesn't look as fast on film as he tested. Very interesting prospect nonetheless.
14. Players to avoid:
1. Florida State DT Darrell Jackson Jr.: he looks so bad to me for a crazy athlete
2. Northwestern OT Caleb Tiernan: makes me sad, but he looks much too stiff to play OT in the NFL
3. Michigan DE Derrick Moore: what if Lawrence was less athletic?
4. Texas Tech DE Romello Height: lighter than Leonard Floyd
5. Cincinnati DT Dontay Corleone: He's a fun story, but the arms are very short and there's lacking quickness.
3. #89/#129
1. Southeastern Louisiana DT Kaleb Proctor
1. It's easy to fall in love with the small school guys. It helps that Proctor (i) showed elite athleticism in his testing, (ii) and showed out against LSU in a real game. He's undersized at 290 lbs., but no crazily so.
2. He's basically the only DT I like in this range.
2. Penn State S Zakee Wheatley
1. Tons of production, tons of experience, and plenty athletic. This is a good spot for him and the Bears. He's a turnover machine.
3. Iowa C Logan Jones
1. A great zone scheme fit. An Iowa C.
4. Florida C Jake Slaughter
1. Just as good as Jones, except he didn't play at Iowa.
5. Auburn C Connor Lew
1. A great looking prospect who tore his ACL last fall. Very young.
6. Kansas State C Sam Hecht
1. There's basically no gap between Hecht and Jones. All four of these guys are good prospects.
7. Duke OT/C Brian Parker II
1. The next Graham Barton? Not that good but the price will be much lower.
8. USC S Kamari Ramsey
1. A good, rangy player.
9. Arizona S Genesis Smith
1. A good, younger prospect who appears to be ascending.
10. Texas LB Anthony Hill Jr.
1. Crazy athlete at a good spot.
11. Ohio State TE Max Klare
1. Yet another option for a crazy pass-catching TE tandem with Loveland.
12. Florida OT Austin Barber
1. Probably a swing tackle, but there's lot of experience and surprising athleticism here.
13. Boston College OT Jude Bowry
1. It wouldn't hurt to go back to the BC well when hunting for an OT, right? Bowry does look similar to Trapilo.
14. Washington CB Tacario Davis
1. Reminds me a Zah Frazier with his rangy frame. Coming off of some rough years.
15. Missouri DT Chris McClellan
1. Looks like just a guy, but the Bears need a few guys.
16. Texas S Michael Taaffe
1. Not a great athlete, but looks like a football player, would play special teams, and has captain material if he can stick on the field.
17. Alabama DE LT Overton
1. Probably a run-stopping DE for the Bears.
18. Texas TE Jack Endries
1. Not a crazy athlete, but an experience, productive TE in a true in-line role.
19. Alabama OLB Deontae Lawson
1. A solid LB prospect.
20. TCU WR Eric McAlister
1. He looks good enough.
21. Michigan TE Marlin Klein
1. Below Endries and McAlister, but he's a pretty solid prospect.
22. UConn WR Skyler Bell
1. I wanted to like him a lot. Instead, he was...fine.
23. Players to avoid:
1. Auburn DE Keyron Crawford: man, he just looks skinny.
2. Georgia State WR Ted Hurst: crazy fast, but I dislike everything else about how he moves.
4. #239/#241
1. Ha!

Alright, time to wrap this up with a final mock draft. Let's go!

Bears trade #25 to Miami for #30 and #75

This is the kind of trade that I could see the Bears making. The Dolphins? Not so much. But dropping just a bit while there are a ton of DL on the board is a good choice. (Miami came up for Kaydn Proctor. OK, maybe they could).

#30: Clemson DT Peter Woods

Perfect. This is a bet that Woods is still an awesome 3-tech forced into a different job in 2025 through no fault of his own. I made the pick even though there were seven trade offers. Seven!

#57: Illinois DE Gabe Jacas

This pick came down to Jacas or Dani Dennis-Sutton. DDS is a better run defender. Jacas is a decidedly better pass rusher. Gotta get that QB!

Bears trade #60 and #239 to Philadelphia for #68 and #98

There were a ton of CBs on the board here that multiple teams wanted, but I wasn't one of them. This drop was sensible to turn a 7th into a 3rd.

#68: Iowa State DT Domonique Orange

Big Citrus, let's do this! Orange is a bet that his 2025 ankle injury sapped what could have been a huge year. If not, his backslide was perplexing. Still, there aren't a ton of people this size on the face of the planet.

#75: Auburn C Connor Lew

Lew is coming off of an injury and I just ranked him behind a few other available centers above. But dang, Lew is three years younger than Slaughter and Hecht and four years younger than Jones. Let's let him recover behind Bradbury and take the job in 2027.

#89: Penn State S Zakee Wheatley

Good size, decedent athleticism, and tons of experience. I hate that he's 24, but Wheatley is a plug-and-play starter at this pivotal spot. Cool.

#98: Mississippi WR De'Zhaun Stribling

I'm very surprised that PFF has Stribling outside of their top-100 prospects. Stribling has good size and tested extremely well. He is old, but his production was strong and there's plenty to like here.

#129: Texas TD Jack Endries

I found myself approaching this pick thinking "man, I really hope Endries or Klein makes it here." Well, here we are! Endries is a perfect addition to the TE room as TE3 in 2026 and TE2 in 2027 and beyond.

#241: Iowa WR Kaden Wetjen

I saw Wetjen score a touchdown. He's very fast, he's old, and he's OK at football.

Here's my proof:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, Case Keenum

RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Roschon Johnson

TE (3): Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet, Jack Endries

WR (6): Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Kalif Raymond, Jahdae Walker, De'Zhaun Stribling, Kaden Wetjen

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Ozzy Trapilo, Theo Benedet

G (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2): Garrett Bradbury, Connor Lew

DE (6): Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Shemar Turner, Gabe Jacas, Daniel Hardy

DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Neville Gallimore, Peter Woods, Domonique Orange

ILB (1): Devin Bush

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, D'Marco Jackson, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (5): Coby Bryant, Cam Lewis, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones, Zakee Wheatley

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

This roster is a bit underwhelming at RB. I think that Sewell will get cut with an injury settlement. Luke Newman loses his spot. The team has 24 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 on special teams; if Sewell comes out, we're back to the right number.

The defense gets a lot of help via this mock, but there's plenty for the offense to like, too. Go Bears!

Thoughts on the Chicago Cubs Extending Nico Hoerner (Yikes!)

I really like Nico Hoerner. That's no small feat. Despite his pedigree as the 24th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, I've never liked Hoerner's profile. It was always clear that he would be able to stick in the middle of a Major League infield, but his offensive profile looked shaky as a prospect, featuring top-notch contact skills but an inability to draw walks or hit for power. He showed tons of promise during his late-2019 cup of coffee with the Cubs, slashing .282/.305/.436 and popping three dingers across just 82 plate appearances while flashing the glovework that fueled his prospect star. Plenty to dream on there!

Then, across 296 plate appearances in 2020-21, Hoerner hit...zero bombs? Zero??? Zero. Yikes! He continually lowered his strikeout rate, but it was clear that power simply wouldn't be a part of his profile, but he did amass a combined walk rate of nearly 10% over that time suggesting that he'd be able to get on base with regularity.

Unfortunately, health concerns reared their head at this point. He missed two months in 2018 with an elbow injury, two more months in 2019 with a wrist injury, and almost all of 2021 with oblique injuries. Yikes! Thankfully, Hoerner has proved remarkably durable since then, including participating in 150+ games each year from 2023-25. To his credit, his health profile now looks promising.

But Hoerner is still a player who needs every bit of his athleticism because the profile only works with twitch and quickness. To his credit, it's a wonderful profile at its peak, where it has resided for the last four years: his twitchiness yields an elite glove, elite baserunning, and enough base hits (mostly singles) to get on base at an average clip. Although there's basically no power in his profile -- he has a sub-.100 ISO over the last three seasons -- the skills that he does have make him a star. Not a superstar but a star nonetheless.

So, his six-year, $141M extension should be a cause for celebration, right? WRONG! Even after deferrals make it more like $130M, this deal is an outrageous risk and a contract with a chance to torpedo the Cubs' chances as we move toward the 2030s. Maybe the Cubs didn't have a choice as next winter's free agent class looks terrible, so Hoerner figured to get a bag from someone. But the Cubs are biting off immense risk here.

Hoerner's profile is delicate. The speed? It's fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness. The defense? It's fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness. His contact tool? Hey, that's not fueled by his elite first step and twitchiness...but players with Hoerner's athleticism profile steal a lot of hits when their athleticism is at its peak but fewer as they age.

If Hoerner loses half a step, the whole profile wobbles. If he loses a whole step, the profile collapses. And there's nothing to fall back on at that point. There's no walk-fueled on-base ability and there's no power.

Yikes!

We've got plenty of players with profiles driven by speed, defense, and contact that lack walks and power. In considering comps for Hoerner's deal, four players came to mind, three of them ex-Cubs. And the results? Well, yikes!

Jason Heyward
The Heyward comp isn't the cleanest for a pair of reasons. First, Heyward had big power in his profile as a Braves prospect and showed above-average power in Atlanta and St. Louis before coming to Chicago. Second, Heyward always showed an above-average ability to draw walks. Nonetheless:

• Six years Pre-Cubs: .268/.353/.431, 118 wRC+, 86 SB, .309 BABIP
• Seven years with the Cubs: .245/.323/.377, 88 wRC+, 32 SB, .277 BABIP

Heyward's elite defense and baserunning pre-Cubs slipped to merely above-average defense and baserunning in Chicago. Add it all up and Heyward pumped out 25.3 WAR in his six years spent in Atlanta and St. Louis, then slipped all the way to 7.1 WAR in his seven years with the Cubs. Heyward gets something of a free pass because the 2016 Cubs won the World Series, but his contract was a disaster and it's fair to assume that his albatross of a deal played a role in the Ricketts family electing to blow up the core of the team in 2021.

Yikes!

Juan Pierre

Pierre and Hoerner don't have the exact same profile, but once again, the similarities are obvious. Pierre had an excellent start to his career through his 2006 season with the Cubs, riding his incredible speed and strong contact skills to a World Series win and a big five-year, $44M deal from the Dodgers before the 2007 season (that was a big deal at the time). When he had his legs, Pierre was productive. When the legs went, well, uh-oh:

• First seven years with Rockies/Marlins/Cubs: .303/.350/.377, 87 wRC+, 325 SB, .319 BABIP
• Seven years with the Cubs: .285/.334/.341, 84 wRC+, 289 SB, .303 BABIP

Pierre's offense hardly cratered, but his defense began to fail later in his career. The result? He amassed 16.6 WAR before free agency -- a 3+ WAR player on average is a very good starter -- but just 7.6 in the seven seasons afterward.

Like Heyward, that's an MLB player. But it's a backup, not a key starter.

Neifi Perez
One of my least favorite Cubs ever despite his limited run with the club. Perez isn't a story about a player whose profile fell apart as he aged. It's a story about a player whose profile throughout his career might show where Hoerner's profile is going. Perez was a truly dreadful offensive player throughout his career. In fact, his lone full season with the Cubs was the best season of his career. Ready for that offensive outburst? .274/.298/.383, good for a 72 wRC+. Woof. Perez's career line of .267/.297/.375 was good for a 58 wRC+, decidedly worse than the career figure of the explosive Ronny Cedeno and nearly identical to Carlos Zambrano (57), a pitcher with a 1.3% career BB%. So yeah, Perez was incredibly bad as a hitter. But he was an average runner and a plus-plus defender up the middle. Add it all up and you get a career WAR of -3.3 over 1,400 games. Replacement level.

Omar Vizquel

The only non-Cub on the list, Vizquel might offer the most appropriate comp. Vizquel began his career with an ultra-elite, historically great glove, plus baserunning, a solid hit tool, a solid ability to draw walks, and absolutely no power whatsoever. Throughout his run in Seattle and Cleveland, Vizquel was good or great every year using this profile. Then he got older and the profile collapsed as the offense vanished, even though his defense remained strong:

• With Seattle/Cleveland: .275/.341/.358, 87 wRC+, 318 SB, .296 BABIP
• Post-Cleveland: .264/.324/.335, 73 wRC+, 86 SB, .289 BABIP

Fueled by his ridiculous glove and a below-average but solid offensive profile, Vizquel proved useful if not terribly impactful, producing 36.2 WAR across his first 16 years. Then the legs went, the offense cratered, and he managed just 6.3 WAR in eight seasons after leaving Cleveland.

The saving grace with Vizquel? He left Cleveland after his age-37 season. If Hoerner remains productive through his age-37 season, the Cubs will be overjoyed. If we look to Vizquel's age-30 through age-35 seasons, we see a template for success: elite defense, plus baserunning, and a .286/.357/.383 batting line (95 wRC+) that added up to 18.0 WAR across six seasons.

Unfortunately, I worry that the six-year stretch for Vizquel above presents the dream scenario with the Cubs and Hoerner: his legs stick around just long enough to allow each part of his profile to play up and he remains highly productive while others carry the hefty offensive load.

Conclusion
It's worthwhile to put all four of the rosy stat lines next to each other -- no, there's no rosy stat line involving Neifi Perez -- so that they can be understood in concert, so here goes:

• Jason Heyward in six years Pre-Cubs: .268/.353/.431, 118 wRC+, 86 SB, .309 BABIP, 25.3 WAR
• Juan Pierre's first seven years with Rockies/Marlins/Cubs: .303/.350/.377, 87 wRC+, 325 SB, .319 BABIP, 16.6 WAR
• Omar Vizquel in 16 seasons with Seattle/Cleveland: .275/.341/.358, 87 wRC+, 318 SB, .296 BABIP, 36.2 WAR
• Nico Hoerner to date (seven seasons): .282/.339/.383, 103 wRC+, 131 SB, 19.7 WAR

I will remain outrageously hopeful that Hoerner follows in Vizquel's footsteps and not in those of Heyward, Pierre, or Perez. If he ends up succeeding the latter group, well...

YIKES!

Pre-Free Agency Chicago Bears 2026 Mock Offseason

The Bears' cap table looks dramatically different today than it did a week ago. Between the stunning retirement of Pro Bowl C Drew Dalman, the release of ILB Tremaine Edmunds, and the trade of WR D.J. Moore to Buffalo, the Bears saw out three of their nine largest cap hits. For some teams, such a set of transactions would result in something like $100M of cap space. But not for the 2026 Bears. These moves combined to leave the Bears with just over $20M of cap space after accounting for signing their Draft class, signing a practice squad, and accounting for minimum cap holds for the remaining roster players.

While it's possible that the Bears recover another $4M from Dalman's signing bonus, it's likely that they enter free agency with roughly this amount of cap space absent some significant contract restructures.

What does this mean? Well, don't expect GM Ryan Poles to go big-game hunting. Could he do so anyway? Sure! I mean, it's Ryan Poles! But I'll be stunned if Maxx Crosby finds his way to Chicago. Let's instead focus on who might actually head this way.

Internal Decisions

The lower-than-expected cap figure of $301.2M was a real blow to the Bears. There just aren't a ton of options for reducing cap figures for returning players. I've been low on Cole Kmet for years, but it sure seems like Poles plans to keep him around. If that's the case, hopefully it comes with a tight extension to lower his 2026 cap hit without adding much future guaranteed money. For now, let's say that there are no restructures and no further significant releases.

The D.J. Moore Trade

Ah, D.J. There's some bizarre notion out there that Moore regressed terribly in 2025. I don't get it. Did his raw numbers slip dramatically? Yes, of course. That's what happens when you go from averaging 135 targets per year, as Moore did from 2019-24, all the way down to 85 targets in 2025. The arrivals of Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland completely reshaped the Bears' passing offense and Moore was the big loser. However, if we apply 135 targets to his season instead of the actual 85 and assume that he produces the same with the increased targets -- as he has for six straight years before 2025! -- Moore would've posted a 80/1,084/10 line. Baller. Of course, he didn't actually post that line, so it's understandable that Poles opted to move Moore from his #3 WR role for cap relief. But his trade does create a new hole as only Burden, Rome Odunze, and Jahdae Walker remain on the roster.

As for the trade itself: dang, that's good value for Moore. While I still think that D.J. has plenty left in the tank, he is outrageoulsy durable -- he has only missed two games in his eight-year career -- and the Bills acquired a pretty nice contract for a plausible #1 WR in his 20s, there's new risk with his profile that wasn't there before coming off of a year in which he got passed over by numerous other quality options. And the Bears, quite frankly, needed the cap relief in order to address other needs.

The trade: the Bears sent Moore and #163 to Buffalo for #60. On the three draft charts, that pegs Moore's value as follows:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 26.2
• Bears Get: 300
• NET: 273.8 (equivalent to pick #63 (late-2nd))
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 2.2
• Bears Get: 8.5
• NET: 6.3 (equivalent to pick #85 (mid-3rd))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 419
• Bears Get: 925
• NET: 506 (equivalent to pick #137 (early-5th))

For what it's worth, I think it's fair to question the Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart when it comes to trade values. There's no NFL team that would trade a mid-2nd round pick for a pair of mid-5ths. That's laughable. In the end, let's peg Moore's value as an early 3rd. That sounds fair. I still don't love the trade, but with that value coming back, it's fair enough given the significant cap issues facing the club.

Free Agency

I haven't left much space for Poles to address the voluminous needs on this roster, including but not limited to:

• LT
• C
• DE2
• MLB
• S
• S (again)
• WR3
• DT3
• Depth all over the place, especially at S

There are oodles of targets that I'd love to see join the club, starting with DEs Odafe Oweh, Khalil Mack, and Arnold Ebiketie, and then moving to C Tyler Linderbaum. Guys like DT DJ Reader, DT Christian Wilkins (if he can still play), LB Leo Chenal, and LB Alex Singleton would be fun. And the barrage of safeties will be attractive, including Kam Curl, Kevin Byard, Jabrill Peppers, Coby Bryant, Jaquan Brisker, Alohi Gilman, Nick Cross, and Tony Jefferson, among a few others. But the resources are limited. I'm using PFF contract projections here. Let's go.

• DE Arnold Ebiketie: 2-years, $16M
• This is DE3 money for Ebiketie. He's the opposite of what Dennis Allen wants, but the Bears desperately need pass rush productivity and Ebiketie has delivered that throughout his career despite underwhelming run defense.
• S Alohi Gilman: 2-years, $13.5M
• This is probably functionally a one-year deal. That's fine. It's a strong draft class and one starter will surely come from the college ranks.
• WR DeAndre Hopkins: 1-year, $2M
• Have the Bears become a destination for a ring-chasing vet? That would be cool!
• DT Shelby Harris: 1-year, $2M
• Ben Johnson has familiarity with Harris from their time together in Detroit. He's clearly nearing the end of his career, but he should provide solid production before it's all over.
• TE Charlie Kolar: 1-year, $1.75M
• A nice TE3 who could plausibly handle TE2 duties if Kmet gets shipped out.
• C Luke Fortner: 1-year, $1.005M
• Fortner was dreadful for the Jaguars in 2022-23 and didn't make it through his rookie deal. Forced into duty with New Orleans last year, he was pretty good. Hopefully he doesn't start but it wouldn't be the worst thing to have a plausible body in house prior to the Draft.
• LB D'Marco Jackson: 1-year, $1.005M
• Jackson is actually a pretty high priority. He played great in limited run last year but also played just 76 snaps across his first three professional seasons. The Bears can likely offer a starting job.
• S Jaylon Jones: 1-year, $1.005M
• Still no star, Jones is a solid citizen in a room desperately needing them.

This trip through free agency leaves the Bears entering the Draft with only Theo Benedet and Kiran Amegadjie on the roster as possible LT options. Yikes!

Draft

With that imperfect yet generally productive free agency period complete, the Bears look to the Draft to add the last batch of new talent to the roster.

Unfortunately, this Draft featured a wild run on DL early. My options at #25 were limited, but thankfully, one strong choice remained.

#25: Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald

McDonald isn't my favorite prospect, but for a team with a dreadful run defense in 2025, McDonald is just what the doctor ordered.

Bears trade #57 to Arizona for #65, #104, and a 2026 4th

I remain deeply concerned about the roster's depth, so nabbing additional picks when there aren't surefire draft targets on the board is the way to go. This trade is superb value.

#60: Penn State DE Dani Dennis-Sutton

DDS has always had better measurables than production. But man, the measurables are insane. He just blew the lid off of the Combine and brings the prototypical physique in the Bears defense. He'd be a great get.

#65: Iowa RT Gennings Dunker

Dunker was a pure RT at Iowa who also worked at G at the Senior Bowl. The Bears have needs at LT and C, so why take Dunker? Simple: this is a bet that drafting awesome OL from Iowa is always the best idea. Get them in house and figure out the rest later.

#89: Arizona S Genesis Smith

Smith has all of the right features to make the Bears defense work in the back end. He had a productive Combine with his run defense the only reason he might last this long

I wanted to draft Indiana WR Elijah Sarratt instead, but duty calls. The Bears need a starter at S.

#104: Penn State S Zakee Wheatley

I'll be overjoyed if Poles manages to nab Wheatley in the 3rd round. Getting him early in the 4th is an outrageous victory. Wheatley is a ballhawking turnover machine with surprisingly excellent run defense. He's old (24), but that's primarily the result of waiting for his turn in a loaded Penn State S room.

#129: Duke OL Brian Parker II

Ugh. This one hurt. I really wanted to take TCU WR Eric McAlister or Baylor TE Michael Trigg, but Parker is too intriguing and too important in light of Dalman's retirement. When I read about Parker and saw his testing, I immediately thought of Bucs' 2024 1st rounder Graham Barton. Parker isn't as good of a prospect and Barton hasn't been great as a pro, but a multi-year Duke starting OT moving to C in the NFL can work and Parker's Combine suggests that he'll be able to move well.

#239: Utah LB Lander Barton

Barton looks like an NFL player. With lots of experience at LB, some time at H-back, and a profile that screams NFL special teamer, he seems like a good bet to make the roster. Punting LB until this point does put undue stress on Ruben Hyppolite to be OK at football. Yikes!

#241: Indiana TE Riley Nowakowski

He's wildly undersized, but Nowakowski has lots of NFL traits. 

The resulting roster again looks very good, though there are spots available for veteran free agents and undrafted rookies.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, FREE AGENT

TE (4): Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet, Charlie Kolar, Riley Nowakowski

WR (5): Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, DeAndre Hopkins, FREE AGENT

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Kiran Amegadjie, Theo Benedet

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Gennings Dunker

C (3):   Luke Fortner, Luke Newman, Brian Parker II

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Arnold Ebiketie, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Dani Dennis-Sutton

DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Shelby Harris, Kayden McDonald

ILB (1): D'Marco Jackson

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite, Lander Barton

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (4):  Alohi Gilman, Genesis Smith, Zakee Wheatley, Jaylon Jones

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Proof from PFF below:

That's a seriously good looking team, although long-term injuries to Trapilo, Odeyingbo, Edwards, and Sewell overstate the extent to which holes are plugged. The cap table is tight in 2026, but things really open up in 2027 even as a huge Darnell Wright extension figures to enter the party.

We'll see where Poles takes things on Monday. Here's hoping that he elects to hoard picks instead of sending them to Vegas!

Post-Playoffs Chicago Bears 2026 Mock Offseason

After a few days of feeling bummed about the end of the riveting 2025 Bears season with a home overtime loss to the Rams, I find myself feeling ecstatic about where things go from here. The 2026 Bears will face a much tougher schedule and need to navigate a brutally difficult division once again, but with Caleb Williams surrounded by a gaggle of similarly young, similarly talented offensive players, the sky is the limit.

So let's build those 2026 Bears!

Internal Decisions

As with before, Ben Johnson will be the head coach, and we'll assume that the coordinators remain the same.

Turning to the roster, the Bears find themselves in a salary cap crunch for the first time in a long time. I always allocate $4M to the Practice Squad, allocate $5M of net cap space for signing the Draft class, and assume that the Bears need $10M for in-season maneuvering. With the Practice Squad accounted for, the Bears currently have $321.9M in spending against an adjusted cap of $309.4M -- yikes! They're $12.5M over the cap and need to get to $15M under in order to sign draftees and operate during the 2026 season. Thankfully, there are a lot of ways to adjust their cap situation and the 2027 roster figures to have a much larger cushion, so kicking some cap hits down the road would be fine. So let's play!

Instead, there are a few players who offer meaningful cap savings if they are jettisoned and a few players who seem ripe for contract restructures/extensions. Namely:

1. Cut LB Tremaine Edmunds
1. Edmunds is a solid player. He's roughly an average starter. He's being paid as a top-10 LB. There's no trade value. He will be cut, removing his $17,437,500 cap hit while leaving only $2,437,500 of dead money behind.
2. Trade TE Cole Kmet
1. Kmet remains a solid player. Unlike Edmunds, there should be a ready market for Kmet. He's wildly overpaid as a TE2 with an $11.6M cap hit in 2026, but for a TE1? That's totally fine and he'll be just 27. I'm not sure what his exact market should be, but I assume that he'd return a 4th or 5th. I figure that the Chargers or the Jets make sense as potential targets, pairing Kmet with a younger TE seeking to establish himself. Kmet's acquiring team would acquire him on a two-year, $20M deal with no guaranteed money left; he'll leave behind a $3.2M dead cap hit.
3. Restructure WR D.J. Moore
1. Yes, I'm aware that Moore blew it on the final Bears offensive play of the season. Had he continued running to the open space that his route surely called for, the Bears likely kick a field goal on the next play and head to Seattle. Moore also hasn't exactly thrived in competing for targets with recent arrivals Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland. And yet, when pressed into true #1 WR territory again late in the season, he starred against Green Bay twice and reminded everyone that he can be an ace. He's an ultra-willing blocker who plays hurt. He fits the identity of what Ben Johnson wants. Trading Moore would remove his $28.5M cap number, leaving just $12M of dead cap behind in 2026 and nothing in future years. But I'd rather keep him. So, let's convert $16M of his $23,485,000 base salary into a restructure bonus. This increases his dead cap hit in future years, but it also reduces his 2026 cap hit from $28.5M down to $15,485,000. It also increases his 2027 and 2028 cap hits to $32.5M each and his 2029 hit to $28.5M. Functionally, this guarantees his deal through 2027. Hardly onerous.
4. Extend C Drew Dalman
1. Dalman is a perfect fit for the Bears offense and his addition to the offensive line completely flipped the script on what had been a decade of futility at the pivot. So let's keep him around. The Bears give Dalman a two-year, $30M extension with a $4M signing bonus. As part of the deal, they convert $8M of his 2026 base salary into a signing bonus. Dalman gets $4M of additional money in 2026, guarantees his 2027 deal, and functionally guarantees his 2028 job. It's a great deal for a C, and it frees up some key space for the Bears, reducing his 2026 cap hit from $14M to $6M.
5. Restructure DE Montez Sweat
1. As with Moore, this one is easy. The 2026 Bears need Sweat. He's still a good player. I'd be open to a modest extension, effectively adding another year or two at his $25M annual salary. Instead, we'll convert $10M of his $20.9M base salary to a restructure bonus, reducing his cap figure from $25,085,294 to $20,085,294.
2. This does increase Sweat's 2027 cap number by $5M. I'm not particularly concerned about that because Dayo Odeyingbo only leaves $2M behind against the cap in 2027 if he's cut next year.
6. Cut LB Amen Ogbongbemiga
1. Ogbongbemiga was a plus special teamer, but his body is failing him. Cutting him removes his $2.625M cap hit while leaving just $375K of dead money behind.
7. Cut RB Roschon Johnson
1. Roschon appears out of favor with the current regime. His cut doesn't functionally save any cap space.

Internal free agency offers three likely targets:

1. Keep ERFA OT Theo Benedet
1. This one is easy. $1,005,000 for a swing OT? Definitely.
2. Sign LB D'Marco Jackson
1. I'm not certain on Jackson's market. He played 370 very good snaps for the Bears, especially late in the season. But he rode the pine when both Edwards and Edmunds were healthy. I think he's a starter and that Dennis Allen is most likely to give him that shot. So let's say he signs for $4.5M over two years with the chance to start.
3. Sign S Kevin Byard
1. Man, I'm going to miss Jaquan Brisker if he leaves. Brisker solidified what had been a truly awful spot when he arrived from Penn State, and he continually produced when healthy. Alas, his numerous concussions make him very difficult to extend. Enter Byard. Byard is old, turning 33 in training camp this year. But man, he is both durable and productive having played north of 1,000 snaps every year since his rookie year. Spotrac projects him for $15.7M over two years. Let's say he gets a $5M signing bonus, a $3.5M base salary in 2026, and a $6.2M base salary in 2027. That yields a $6M cap figure in 2026.
4. Sign DE Daniel Hardy
1. Hardy is an RFA, not an ERFA. For argument's sake, let's say he comes back for the league minimum.
5. Sign G Jordan McFadden
1. As with Hardy, McFadden is an RFA, not an ERFA. For argument's sake, let's say he comes back for the league minimum after stunningly starting against the Rams.
6. Sign S Jaylon Jones
1. Jones is no star, but he's a playable body on special teams and he should be cheap. Let's assume that he signs for the veteran's minimum and counts for the minimum against the cap, too

The net result: oof, there are some holes...but the Bears are now $31M under the cap.

Free Agency

Last year, the approach in free agency was clear: add talent in the interior offensive line and along the defensive line. Enter Drew Dalman, Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Grady Jarrett before the Draft weekend additions of Ozzy Trapilo, Shemar Turner, and Luke Newman. The additions on the offensive line were dramatically more impactful than the defensive additions. So it goes.

This year, the roster needs a few pieces, but it doesn't need nearly as many as last year. Thoughts:

1. Pass rush is desperately needed. This is the biggest hole on the roster. It must be solved. I do think that the Bears could/should carry six DEs and four DTs. If the top four DEs are Montez Sweat, Austin Booker, Dayo Odeyingbo, and a top new addition, there will be the ability to kick Odeyingbo inside in pass rushing situations alongside Shemar Turner and/or Grady Jarrett.
2. Safeties -- yikes! Even though Byard is back, he and Jones are the only safeties on the roster. Time for more bodies.
3. Cornerback looks stuffed. If Zah Frazier and Terell Smith are both on track, there are six quality CBs already targeted for the roster. Cool! Lost in Nahshon Wright's wonderful surprise season (that really petered out at the end) was a tremendous rebound season from Tyrique Stevenson. His strip against Dallas and diving interception against Las Vegas showed that he meant business. He looks ready for a big role.
4. What to do about LT? Trapilo was a godsend. His patellar exploded. Kiran Amegadjie lost the year to injury. Can Benedet or Amegadjie cover LT? 
5. Who replaces Kmet as TE2? After Gerald Everett flopped in the role, the Bears need to replace Kmet with someone useful.

I'm deeply curious to see what Poles elects to do at LT. For now, I'm going to assume that the 2026 LT is on the roster already, whether that's Benedet, Amegadjie, or even Thuney. So, instead, let's hunt for TE2 and pass rush help. With roughly $16M of net cap space to spend, we're going big-game hunting here.

1. Sign TE Taysom Hill
1. Boy, this would be fun, eh? Hill follows Allen to Chicago to play a TE3/gadget role for Ben Johnson, who surely falls in love with Hill in a hurry. Spotrac projects Hill for just $2.1M on a one-year deal.
2. Sign DE ????????
1. Spotrac projects the following deals for the top DEs:
1. Trey Hendrickson: Two years, $51M
1. Below-average run grades, elite pass rushing
2. Season-ending hip injury in 2025; required surgery
2. Odafe Oweh: Three years, $58M
1. Plus pass rusher, average run defender
3. Jaelan Phillips: Three years, $52M
1. Good at everything
2. ACL and Achilles injuries in 2023 and 2024
4. Khalil Mack: One year, $18.4M
1. Pass rush grade is faltering and he's old; run defense is great
5. Joey Bosa: Two years, $27.5M
1. Elite pass rushing; lengthy injury history
6. Arnold Ebiketie: Three years, $27M
1. Average run defender, good pass rusher
7. Dre'Mont Jones: Two years, $20.7M
1. Below-average run defender, above-average pass rusher
2. There are two distinct approaches that the Bears can take here:
1. Sign the most complete DE possible; OR
2. Sign the best pass rusher, either cheaply is he sticks at run defense or expensively if he's good at everything.
3. It's time to put all of that cap maneuvering to work: Sign DE Odafe Oweh. Oweh possesses the kind of ultra-athletic profile that Poles loves, posting a 9.92 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine with ludicrous length via his 34.5" arms. With Odeyingbo headed for the chopping block in 2027 and Sweat perhaps following thereafter, Oweh comes in on target for the DE1 job as soon as next year. Let's say he gets $47M guaranteed via a $12M signing bonus with base salaries of $10M in Y1, $17M in Y2, and $19M in Y3. That would yield cap numbers of $14M in Y1, $21M in Y2, and $23M in Y4. I have to suspect that Oweh's deal with end up heftier than this, but we'll roll with this for now.

Draft

With this free agency period, the only absolute necessities are finding a starting safety next to Byard, a playable TE, and a rotation DT. Cool!

Bears trade TE Cole Kmet to Los Angeles Chargers for #123

As mentioned above.

Bears trade #25 and #163 to New England for #30 and #62

Whew. This was tricky. I wanted to stay at #25 and draft Miami RT Francis Mauigoa following his inexplicable slide. Or Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq. Or Washington WR Denzel Boston. But then this trade materialized and dang, I had to do it.

#30: Bears draft Georgia DT Christen Miller

Miller is a good prospect. He doesn't look like a star in the making, but he does look like the interior anchor of an elite run defense along with possessing enough pass rush upside to be a good pick here.

#57: Bears draft Texas LB Anthony Hill Jr.

I don't love taking an LB this high, but with both Hill and Missouri's Josiah Trotter on the board, it seemed prudent as there's a huge drop off after those two. Hill should start early in his career and possesses the kind of ceiling that Tremaine Edmunds did, too.

Bears trade #62, #239, and #241 to Las Vegas for #67 and #102

Once again, there were a number of very attractive options on the board here. Turning one possible starter into two possible starters was the way to go.

#67: Bears draft Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers

The Bears need a blocking TE. Stowers is not that. Stowers is, however, an elite receiving target. He probably needs to add 15 pounds of mass and learn how to block from scratch, but the pass-catching upside is absolutely impossible to ignore. And Stowers took a remarkably interesting path to being the 2025 Mackey Award winner, starting his college career as a backup QB at Texas A&M before transferring to New Mexico State and ultimately Vanderbilt. This is a big challenge to Ben Johnson. Stowers is worth the risk given his immense upside.

#89: Bears draft Penn State S Zakee Wheatley

My biggest risk was hoping that Wheatley would make it here. Pfew! I think he's a star in the making. I don't think he'll actually last this long on Draft weekend. But dang, he'd be a great fit. He's a turnover machine.

#102: Bears draft Texas Tech DT Skyler Gill-Howard

Gill-Howard's story is awesome. He was a Division II walk-on LB with a wrestling background. He's undersize at 6'1", 290 lbs., but man, he is quick for a big man. He contrasts nicely with Miller. In an offseason where rushing the passer is paramount, Gill-Howard fits the bill.

I had to pass on Penn State RB Kaytron Allen to make this pick. It hurt.

#123: Bears draft Texas S Michael Taaffe

Another former walk-on draftee? Yup! Taaffe has captain written all over him. So even though he's a bit undersized and not an athletic standout, he looks like a keeper. He played a lot of football at Texas, too, so if the Bears are going to rely on rookies at safety, it helps that Wheatley and Taaffe have both played a ton.

#129: TCU WR Eric McAlister

The last time I took McAlister in a mock draft, it was at #207! Well, he's climbing. McAlister still comes with some off-field baggage, but he's got the body of an NFL WR and enjoyed a massive season this year for the Horned Frogs (72/1,190/10).

The resulting roster looks very good, though there are spots available for veteran free agents and undrafted rookies.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, FREE AGENT

TE (4): Colston Loveland, Taysom Hill, Eli Stowers, FREE AGENT

WR (5): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, Eric McAlister

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Kiran Amegadjie, Theo Benedet

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Jordan McFadden

C (2):   Drew Dalman, Luke Newman

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Odafe Oweh, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy

DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Christen Miller, Skyler Gill-Howard

ILB (1): D'Marco Jackson

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Anthony Hill Jr., Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (5):  Kevin Byard, Zakee Wheatley, Jaylon Jones, Michael Taaffe, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Proof from PFF below:

Skipping the OL and RB rooms in this Draft makes me uncomfortable. But dang, I love the additions on defense and Stowers and McAlister both offer quality pass catching options. In retrospect, I should've gone bigger on the TE2 spot between either Austin Hooper or Noah Fant. Alas, that's not how free agency and the Draft work.

I ended up $15.7M under the salary cap, so I probably kept more dry powder than necessary, though rolling that unused cap space over to 2027 isn't a problem. Some of those dollars will probably be spent on RB3 heading into training camp.

Regardless, this team has a ton of added speed on defense with a bunch of new pass rushing juice up front. The passing offense gets a nice boost, too, with the arrivals of Stowers and McAlister. But let's be honest: Oweh's addition is the one that moves the needle here and the risk taken at LT -- that the 2026 LT is already on the roster -- will probably define the 2026 season.

Apologies Abound Following One of the Best Bears Wins of My Lifetime

As the third quarter ended last night and the fourth quarter began, things looked dire for the Chicago Bears. Even the little breath of hope provided by Devan Duvernay's 37-yard punt return in the final minute of the third quarter was largely suffocated when the ensuing possession managed just two yards across seven plays, culminating in a 51-yard Cairo Santos field goal that turned a two-touchdown deficit into...well, still a two-touchdown deficit.

But some of us had seen enough of Caleb Williams dating to his time at Gonzaga College High School, Oklahoma, USC, and with the Bears both this year and last to have hope. Read the thread. However, while that thread ended with hope, it began with the sobering reality of my conscious lifetime as a Bears fan: absolute domination by Green Bay. The Bears were just 15-50 against the Packers from 1994 through Friday with only two quarterbacks having even achieved three wins against Green Bay: both Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton at 3-1. The other Bears QBs from 1994 until Caleb Williams arrived -- excluding Grossman and Orton -- went just 9-48. My God.

But Caleb is here. And everything that could be different is different.

I was ecstatic about the ability to get Caleb to Chicago and have loved riding the wave with him. There are plenty of other players about whom I was right for the 2025 Bears, including but not limited to:

• Luther Burden. He had an imperfect game, but he made a trio of catches and has already reached "gravity" status: on the final Bears' offensive play of the game, Caleb's fake screen to Burden drew two Packers defenders up to the line, allowing DJ Moore to run free for the game-winning score. Love it.
• Rome Odunze, Kyler Gordon, and Jaylon Johnson. All three are good. All three are clearly playing hurt, especially the two DBs. Great efforts.
• Cole Kmet. Man. Kmet just can't get it done as TE2. His blocking remains adequate, but he's basically a non-factor as a pass catcher at this point, still managing to drop a ball in every game. Ugh.
• Ben Johnson. I was soooooo excited for Johnson's arrival, but he's been dramatically better than I even hoped.

Despite the above, I was wrong on a bunch of Bears players to whom I owe an apology. I expected some of these players to struggle when they were acquired whereas others I expected very little of last night. All of them played their roles in making last night's game an all-time great Bears memory. So, in order of intensity, here are the eight Bears to whom I owe an apology.

8. WR Olamide Zaccheus. I was excited for the Zaccheus signing. He was a competent slot receiver who handled a big workload in Washington and seemed like a nice addition for Caleb. In the early part of the season, Zaccheus produced reasonably well. But as the season went along, it became patently obvious that Zaccheus needed to take a back seat to Burden, an emerging star. So, I lamented Zaccheus' snaps yesterday, even yelling out "why?" when I saw him on the field in the red zone...seconds before he caught the club's penultimate touchdown. Sorry, Olamide.

7. DT Chris Williams. Williams is no star. I saw him as an egregious overpay at $3.263M this year on his RFA tender, and I hoped that he'd be inactive on most gamedays behind Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, and Andrew Billings. Well, Jarrett struggled mightily in the early part of the season, Billings looked washed, and Turner tore his Achilles in November. The result? 219 nearly average regular season snaps followed by 11 more last night. Williams isn't good, but he isn't bad and that helped last night. Sorry, Chris.

6. DT Grady Jarrett. My big concern in March was that Jarrett was washed, resulting in his new contract being a massive overpay. That concern was justified: Jarrett looks washed and his contract is a significant overpay. However, let's be fair: Jarrett got off to a brutal start and struggled upon returning from injury in October, but he has played considerably better since then. He's not the impact pass rusher that the Bears need on the inside, but his play has been very solid for the last month and a half. 59 quality snaps against the Packers earns an apology. Sorry, Grady.

5. RB D'Andre Swift. Damn. Swift looked like a brutal overpay in free agency after Ryan Poles struck out on Saquon Barkley. And year one? Yikes. Lots of players were worse last year, but Swift was bad. In 2025 though? Swift has made a starring turn, producing a career year at age 26. He has run so much harder down the stretch, fighting for extra yardage with game-changing results. Most notably, he turned a third and four quick out with 1:54 remaining into a 23-yard gain to put the Bears in field goal territory. Huge, huge play. Sorry, D'Andre!

4. LT Ozzy Trapilo. I just couldn't understand drafting Trapilo in April. The Bears used the #10 pick in 2023 Draft on Darnell Wright and got an All-Pro performer. Trapilo played LT at Boston College in 2022 and struggled. So, he moved to RT for 2023 and 2024 and produced good results. That's cool...but a swing tackle in the second round? No thanks. Well, Trapilo didn't look like he'd play much in 2025 for the first month and a half of the season, only playing 40 brutal snaps in Las Vegas. But then Braxton Jones continued to struggle and got hurt and his backup, Theo Benedet, also got hurt. Trapilo entered the starting lineup in Week 12 and never looked back, rounding into form as a plus LT during his rookie year. Incredible. What a performance. His patellar injury -- of unconfirmed severity -- is devastating not just for the 2025 season but also for the 2026 year and possibly Trapilo's career. But being the hero that he is, Trapilo injured his patellar but hopped off the field on one leg to ensure that the Bears didn't lose a timeout inside the two-minute warning, becoming a fan favorite in the process. Wow! Sorry, Ozzy!

3. RG Jonah Jackson. I absolutely despised the Jackson trade and the post-trade extension made things even worse. Then the season rolled around and Jackson was a one-man wrecking crew in the opening week, torpedoing the offense with a dreadful showing against Minnesota. Jackson had a nightmarish Week 18 against Detroit, too, but the 15 games in between? Jackson was very good, a durable, plus starter on the inside. He's no star, but for those of us expecting a dumpster fire, Jackson's above-average season was a revelation. Sorry, Jonah!

2. TE Colston Loveland. My disappointment on Draft night was crippling. I couldn't believe that the Bears passed up Penn State TE Tyler Warren, coming off of one of the greatest collegiate TE season of all time, in favor of a Michigan Wolverine with a bum shoulder. Loveland then performed poorly in his first two games before injuring his hip in Week Three after playing just six snaps, then missing Week Four as a result. The early returns were dreadful. And to make matters worse, by the time Loveland caught two balls on Monday Night Football against Washington on October 13th -- running his season total to five grabs for 54 yards and no scores -- Warren had posted 29 catches for 370 yards and two touchdowns. *Gulp* Well, thankfully for Loveland and the Bears, the season continued. Loveland became a more important part of the offense and then played leading roles in a pair of season-defining wins, grabbing six balls for 118 yards and two scores (including the game winner) in Cincinnati before running roughshod over the Packers last night. As much as it pains me to say it, Loveland looks like a superstar and -- ugh -- an even better fit with Caleb than Warren would have been. Sorry, Colston!

1. K Cairo Santos. As if this could have been anyone else. I despite Santos for a reason as old as time: he's just like me! I was a weak-legged kicker who could kick the ball straight but not drive it powerfully. His inadequate leg strength in prior seasons figured to torpedo more meaningful games this year if Johnson successfully turned around the operation. And he did! It is but a distant memory now, but way back in Week One, Santos missed a 50-year attempt against Minnesota on the first play of the fourth quarter before JJ McCarthy led three touchdown drives. Had Santos made that kick, Odunze's late touchdown catch that brought the Bears within three would've tied the game. He nearly did it again in Minneapolis, missing wide from 45 yards out in the fourth before hitting from 48 on the game's final play to win the game. His kickoffs have been inconsistent, though his most successful kicks -- low line drives that bounce through the landing zone -- are fantastic.

Regardless, when the weather turned cold, Santos got hot. In particular, his 47-yarder against Pittsburgh was the difference in that game, his perfect day against Green Bay on December 20th got that game to overtime, and his perfect day yesterday was impressive enough on its own...but when contrasted with the disastrous performance from Brandon McManus, Santos and his low-trajectory kicks were crucial. Had Santos missed any of his five kicks, Green Bay would've been able to tie or win the game with a McManus field goal. But whereas McManus hooked a field goal and an extra point while pushing another field goal, Santos nailed his kicks. Had Cody Parkey made his final kick as a Bear in January 2019, the playoff victory drought would've been much shorter. But Parkey, rather famously, double-doinked that season away. Santos delivered, as he has almost all season. I'm surprised. But kudos. Sorry, Cairo!

I've been really underwhelmed by Gervon Dexter this year and frustrated by Tremaine Edmunds over the past month or so. Perhaps they'll combine for five sacks against the Rams!

One More Pre-Playoffs Chicago Bears Mock 2026 Offseason

Earlier, I went through a full mock offseason. But a single mock draft is always so underwhelming, so here's another mock draft with the yielded roster assuming the same free agency period with signings of S Jaquan Brisker, TE Noah Fant, and LB D'Marco Jackson (more detail here).

#29: Bears draft Clemson DE T.J. Parker
The true best-case scenario. Parker and Oregon's Matayo Uiagalelei are the most likely gets at #29. Parker is the dream, even though he isn't quite as tall and quite as long as Dennis Allen wants, he's a plug and play three-down DE given his ability to stop the run.

#61: Bears draft Oregon S Dillon Thieneman
Thieneman continually makes it into this late-2nd round territory and I just don't get it. He looks like a star. He's a complete player. If he was 6-2, I think he'd go in the top half of the 1st round. For now, I'll be ecstatic taking him here instead.

There were good DT options here and there won't be later, but Thieneman is too good to pass up here.

#93: Bears draft Florida State DT Darrell Jackson Jr.
I had to pass on Emmanuel McNeil-Warren to make this pick, but I think that's OK. Jackson is fun. His athletic profile is outrageous at 6'5, 337 lbs. with a 7-2 wingspan. I'm not certain how good Jackson is at the moment, but he's a good run defender now in a physique. It's worth the shot here.

Bears trade #124, #207, #242, and #248 to Denver for #108
This is a lot of depth to surrender. But, given the roster construction at hand, it's worthwhile to get...

#108: Bears draft Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez
Rodriguez is an incredibly fun prospect. He was an elite college player against the run and the pass, and he has enough measurables to assume that he can start in the NFL despite average speed. But the best part of the profile? He was a QB at Virginia before transferring to Texas Tech to become a LB. He reads the field exceptionally well. Oh wait; the actual best part of the profile? He's the spiritual successor to the Peanut Punch. Rodriguez must be a Bear.

Bears trade TE Cole Kmet to New York Jets for #139
Referenced in the earlier blog post, this is needed for cap space.

#139: Bears draft Texas S Michael Taaffe
Taaffe has a really interesting profile. He's way underweight at 190 lbs. But he's overcome that at Texas, brings tons of special teams value, and his primary limitation -- tackling in the box -- is the primary strength of Brisker and Thieneman. Taaffe can play off of those guys well, even serving as Kyler Gordon's backup in the slot. He'd be a nice roster fit.

#168: Bears draft Georgia TE Lawson Luckie
Luckie isn't a great prospect. He's a subpar blocking TE in an offense that definitely wants its TEs to block. But he's a strong receiving target and can serve as a quality red zone receiving option as he develops the rest of his game. I needed to give Ben Johnson something in this Draft!

Proof:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

TE (4): Colston Loveland, Noah Fant, Lawson Luckie, FREE AGENT

WR (5): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, FREE AGENT

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Theo Benedet, FREE AGENT

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2):   Drew Dalman, Luke Newman

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy, T.J. Parker

DT (5): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Darrell Jackson Jr, FREE AGENT

ILB (2): T.J. Edwards, D'Marco Jackson

OLB (4): Amen Ogbongbemiga, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite, Jacob Rodriguez

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (5):  Jaquan Brisker, Dillon Thieneman, Michael Taaffe, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

I never know how these mocks are going to go when I start. But this one offers a really nice contrast to the one in the prior post. That mock featured tons of depth additions across the roster, but the combination of Parker and Thieneman at the top of this class is just better. I could've gone a few different directions in the 3rd round, but I'm increasingly convinced that the Bears need to add a mid-round DT prospect to pour some extra juice into that room.

Enjoy!

Chicago Bears Mock 2026 Offseason: Looking Ahead Before the Playoffs

This blog and its writer will shift focus exclusively to the NFL playoffs next week. This is a strange feeling. At this point in the year, I'm normally locked in on free agency and digging into draft prep. But no. This year, it'll be all about the Packers, Rams, 49ers, or Seahawks.

So, before next week starts, here's my first real look to the 2026 Bears.

Internal Decisions

Thankfully, the 2026 Bears have no questions at the top: Ben Johnson will be the head coach. Nice! It's plausible that Declan Doyle and/or Dennis Allen could leave for promotions elsewhere, but for now, we'll assume that the coaching staff remains the same.

Turning to the roster, the Bears find themselves in a salary cap crunch for the first time in a long time. Spotrac shows the roster at $300.9M of spending against an adjusted cap of $309.4M, but that's before (i) a practice squad, (ii) signing the Draft class, and (iii) filling out the remaining unfilled roster spots with minimum-salary players. Functionally, the Bears are $14.4M over the 2026 cap before cutting players and/or restructuring deals; this also doesn't leave the roughly $10M of cap space that teams like to leave for in-season roster churn. Additionally, there's no Nate Davis or Gerald Everett on this roster, a floundering player with a big cap number but minimal dead cap left behind when cut.

Instead, there are a few players who offer meaningful cap savings if they are jettisoned. Namely:

• LB Tremaine Edmunds: $17.4M cap number, $2.4M dead cap
• TE Cole Kmet: $11.6M cap number, $3.2M dead cap
• RB D'Andre Swift: $8.8M cap number, $1.3M dead cap

Edmunds has had a solid season, but nothing close to a $15M net season given the market value for LBs. He figures to be cut, creating an opening next to TJ Edwards. Swift is more likely to receive an extension than be cut at this point after a very impressive season. Kmet is tricky. He's underwhelming, but an $8.4M net cap number isn't outrageous and the TE market is sparse. I wonder if Kmet might get a modest extension that lowers his cap number. TE is simply too important to the Ben Johnson offense to get thin at that spot. Unfortunately, cap needs dictate Kmet moving on. But unlike Edmunds, Kmet should have market value on a one-year, $10M deal which is what an acquiring team would obtain. We'll say Kmet gets shipped out for a 5th-round pick.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Bears feature two players from the 2023 Draft class likely to earn Proven Performance Escalator pay bumps in DT Gervon Dexter and CB Tyrique Stevenson. Dexter has underwhelmed this year after looking like an ascending player, but he's going to stick around in a starting capacity, especially given his remaining upside as a pass rusher. Stevenson has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season after a disastrous 2024, buried in the shadow of a breakout season by Nahshon Wright. Both Dexter and Stevenson will see their base salaries jump from $1.6M to $3.5M next year, adding $3.8M against the cap.

Noah Sewell was likely headed for a release, but his Achilles injury complicates the expected cap savings if he remains unable to play in 2026. For now, we'll assume that he stays on the roster even if he's only available to play on the back half of the schedule.

For now, let's assume minimal movement:

• Edmunds cut ($15M net cap savings, $2.4M dead cap)
• Swift stays on his current deal (no cap change)
• Kmet is traded for a 5th-round pick
• Dexter and Stevenson stay, receiving their PPEs ($3.8M net cap addition)
• RB Roschon Johnson cut ($1.1M net cap savings, $0.2M dead cap)
• ERFA OT Theo Benedet and RFA DE Daniel Hardy both return on minimum deals
• Yes, I know that Hardy doesn't actually need to come back on a minimum deal, but it seems awfully likely.

All we've done is generate $11.2M in cap space while creating a hole at WLB.

Free Agency

Last year, the approach in free agency was clear: add talent in the interior offensive line and along the defensive line. Enter Drew Dalman, Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Grady Jarrett before the Draft weekend additions of Ozzy Trapilo, Shemar Turner, and Luke Newman. The additions on the offensive line were dramatically more impactful than the defensive additions. So it goes.

This year, the goals are clear but the ability to plug them is tough. To wit:

• Safeties matter. Both Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker are free agents. So are Jonathan Owens, Elijah Hicks, and Jaylon Jones. That's...all of them. Gotta get some safeties.
• Who is bringing the pass rush juice? Top-level DEs are very expensive and the Bears lack the cap space to make a play for Trey Hendrickson or another free agent without engaging in the type of cap shenanigans that they have otherwise avoided.
• Who replaces Edmunds at LB? I expect a modest free agent signing.
• Is Zah Frazier going to play football again? And did Terell Smith's patellar heal appropriately? If not, and assuming that Nahshon Wright proves way too expensive to bring back, the Bears need a bit more depth at CB.
• Is Kiran Amegadjie still a developmental OL prospect? If so, great! He becomes the top backup at G, replacing Ryan Bates. If not, the Bears need to find another developmental OL.

Free agency isn't going to offer a ton of solutions. But it can help heading into the Draft. The biggest needs are at LB, TE, and S. Spotrac projects personal favorite S Jaquan Brisker to receive a three-year, $34.1M deal. Brisker isn't a star, but he's the heart and soul of the Bears defense. While I don't like the idea of engaging in cap shenanigans, I'd be very tempted to find a way to sign Brisker if the Bears can keep his Y1 cap hit in the $7M neighborhood.

• Bears sign TE Noah Fant to a one-year, $3M deal
• Fant is no star. But he's a low-end starting-caliber TE who can thrive in the TE2 or TE3 slot for the Bears and parlay a year in Ben Johnson's offense into a heftier payday next offseason.
• Bears extend C Drew Dalman via a two-year, $30M extension
• The value of this deal shows itself below. Dalman proved to be an idyllic fit in Johnson's offense and he'll be just 28 next year. After years of disastrous play at the pivot, Dalman has been a godsend for Bears fans. Dalman carries a $14M cap hit, but this extension reworks his deal by reducing his 2026 base salary from $11M to $2M with his new deal including a $10M signing bonus to give him $1M in additional 2026 money, guarantees in 2027, and more job security going forward. It also frees up $6.5M of 2026 cap space, which is great because...
• Bears sign S Jaquan Brisker to a three-year, $34.1M deal
• Here we go. Setting aside workout/roster bonuses, we'll follow the Josh Metellus deal and say that Brisker gets a $12M signing bonus on a deal that includes a $3M base salary in 2026. That keeps Brisker's 2026 cap hit right at $7M. That'll play. He'd get something like $25M guaranteed with this structure.
• If we figure that his base salaries/roster bonuses in 2027 and 2028 need to account for $19M, we'll give him $9M in 2027 and $10M in 2028, yielding cap numbers in those seasons of $13M and $14M respectively. Not ideal but not unworkable.
• Brisker is a risky extension candidate given his history of concussions, but he's a key leader on defense. Losing both Brisker and Byard would be painful.
• Bears sign LB D'Marco Jackson to a one-year, $2M deal
• Jackson has played well in limited action this year. He has also played his way into a core special teams role. Can the Bears afford to carry Amen Ogbongbemiga and Jackson? I think so, especially as a hedge against Ruben Hyppolite being unplayable at LB.

If you're underwhelmed by this free agency period, understood -- me too! Such is life up at the cap line.

Draft

Good teams make their moves at the Draft. Assuming the free agency period above, the Bears enter the Draft with a few absolutely massive needs, as follows:

• DE
• While Sweat, Odeyingbo, and Booker figure to eat most of the reps, the Bears need an infusion of talent, especially given the likelihood that Sweat and Odeyingbo aren't here in 2027.
• DT
• The only DTs on the roster would be Jarrett, Dexter, and Shemar Turner as he returns from a torn ACL.
• TE2/TE3
• S

Entering the Draft, all of the starting spots would be filled, at least nominally, except for the S job next to Brisker. So here goes:

Bears trade TE Cole Kmet to New York Jets for #139

Technically a 4th, but it's the last pick of the compensatory selections and allows the Jets to bring in a big target for their new QB.

#29: Bears draft Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald

No way McDonald makes it this far, right? Well, he has basically the same athletic profile as Tyleik Williams, another Ohio State DT who made it to #28 last year. McDonald would be an ideal fit for this roster. I gave heavy consideration to Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq and Utah OT Caleb Lomu here, too. Both represent excellent value. The DE options were less compelling.

Bears trade #61 to Kansas City for #73, #129, and a 2027 4th

USC S Kamari Ramsey would've been the pick here, but he went off the board at #60. So, this trade brings in some extra picks despite only moderate value.

#73: Bears draft Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren

I'm in deep on EMW. Deep. He's go the look of a cornerstone defender with the springiness and attitude to make big plays. Putting him next to Brisker is a great look at the back of the secondary.

#93: Bears draft Penn State S Zakee Wheatley

OK, this was really tough. I settled on Wheatley for four reasons. First, Wheatley is a turnover machine. Second, the safety depth chart is still scary until he joins the party. Third, the relative value of my other choice -- Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez -- isn't quite as high as another safety. And fourth, Dennis Allen started playing some three-safety looks. I would've preferred DE Dani Dennis-Sutton in this spot, but he didn't make it that far.

#124: Cincinnati TE Joe Royer

I took another big risk here, delaying the DE pick yet again. But ensuring that I got Royer in the building was worth it. Ben Johnson is going to have fun with Royer, a former Ohio State TE who shined as a Bearcat.

#129: Ohio State DE Kenyatta Jackson

Unfortunately, my risk at #124 hurt as Notre Dame DE Boubacar Traore came off the board at #125. Of course Philly nabbed my DE. Ugh. That yields an overdraft in this spot. Jackson looks like he'll be able to step in a run defender, but he lacks the explosiveness of an exciting pass rusher. Bummer. He does have the kind of frame that Dennis Allen wants.

#139: Louisville DE Clev Lubin

Lubin is a really interesting, riskier pick. It would be better for this roster to take a LB, RB, or even WR. But no. It's Lubin. Lubin is basically the opposite profile to Jackson. Jackson was a top-50 recruit from football factory Chaminade-Madonna in Florida who spent four years at Ohio State. Lubin, on the other hand, went to Army, then Iowa Western, then Coastal Carolina, and then finally Louisville. At both Coastal Carolina and Louisville, Lubin used his electric first step to cause havoc as a pass rusher. At 6'3", 250 lbs., he lacks the size to play 4-3 DE in anything other than an obvious passing situation. But at #139, it's worth buying his upside as a pass rusher.

#168: Houston TE Tanner Koziol

The success of the WR room opened up this option and caused me to reallocate a roster spot from a 6th WR to a 4th TE. Koziol is a polished receiver and a subpar blocker. If he develops as a blocker, great! If not, he's a nice addition as a receiving threat here.

#207: TCU WR Eric McAlister

McAlister comes with some off-field baggage, but he's got the body of an NFL WR and enjoyed a massive season this year for the Horned Frogs (72/1,190/10).

#242: Oregon RB Noah Whittington

This is guaranteed to work out as well as Monangai, right?

#248: Iowa S Xavier Nwankpa

I still love Nwankpa, even though he clearly lacks the speed to be a serious NFL safety.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (3): D'Andre Swift, Kyle Monangai, Noah Whittington

TE (4): Colston Loveland, Noah Fant, Joe Royer, Tanner Koziol

WR (5): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jahdae Walker, Eric McAlister

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Ozzy Trapilo, Theo Benedet, FREE AGENT

OG (3): Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, Kiran Amegadjie

C (2):   Drew Dalman, Luke Newman

DE (6): Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, Austin Booker, Daniel Hardy, Kenyatta Jackson, Clev Lubin

DT (4): Grady Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, Shemar Turner, Kayden McDonald

ILB (2): T.J. Edwards, D'Marco Jackson

OLB (3): Amen Ogbongbemiga, Noah Sewell, Ruben Hyppolite

CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier

S (5):  Jaquan Brisker, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Zakee Wheatley, Xavier Nwankpa, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Proof from PFF below:

Not bad. But realistically, most of the improvement for this team will need to come from within. No pressure, Caleb!