Welcome to Sports Fandom, Kid: Penn State Implodes Against Wisconsin to Bury the Matt Campbell Tenure

Saturday was a special day for my family and me. I've taken my older daughters to a handful of Penn State games apiece spread out across the Midwest, but my youngest has only seen the Nittany Lions in at the old Ryan Field. Until Saturday. We got up early and made the pilgrimage eight hours eastward, leaving a few hours before sunrise and ending our night in a Youngstown hotel around 1:30am. It was a long day. And it was a magical day sharing this loved experience with all three of my girls (my wife opted for a day of botanical gardens and relaxation, a strong choice for her).

And then the Penn State offense got involved, the fourth quarter happened, and instead of singing a celebratory anthem along with the Jonas Brothers, we found ourselves feeling gobsmacked that the season was somehow flipped on its head by Luke Fickell's lowly Wisconsin Badgers. Much more than that happened, of course, but we'll start with a quick recap of things that stood out from the football contest itself.

Game Thoughts on Wisconsin

1. The Wisconsin defense was pretty good! They aren't exactly loaded up with star players, but they're tough along the defensive line and their linebackers played responsible football. That said...
2. Their secondary got beat deep all night. Not ideal if you're Wisconsin, but they handled everything else in front of them quite well. Still, getting whooped deep is a great way to play losing football.
3. Wisconsin QB Colton Joseph was awful. It's difficult to describe just how poorly he threw the ball, but how's this: with seven minutes left in in the 4th quarter, Joseph was 11/27 for 94 yards and three interceptions. You could argue that his passing yielded 19 net yards and -7 net points if you fold in the interception returns. And this was a dead-on accurate portrayal of Joseph's passing acumen on the day, save for his beautiful touchdown ball to the back corner of the endzone to Eugene Hilton Jr. on Wisconsin's penultimate drive.
4. Somehow, incredibly, impossibly, over the six minutes that followed, Joseph went 7/11 for 141 yards and two touchdowns. Wowzers.
5. Jacob Harris made the two biggest plays for the Wisconsin offense. Obviously his 72-yard game-winning touchdown with less than 100 seconds remaining got primary attention, but his incredible leaping catch at the end of the first half set up the Badgers' first touchdown, too. Kudos to Harris for making those plays. Last year, Harris played every game for Bowling Green and amassed 182 yards across 19 grabs; he managed 105 yards on five catches in Happy Valley.
6. Wisconsin handled a tough -- but not elite -- crowd on Saturday very poorly, committing five false starts, including one false start on each fourth quarter touchdown drive.
7. Taken together, the Wisconsin offense was abysmal and the Wisconsin defense made tons of catastrophic mistakes. However, inexplicably, PSU couldn't punish them. The defense could be pretty good, especially against the run, but the offense is so bad that it won't matter, particularly because the Wisconsin OL is truly bad; that sentence feels strange to type.
8. I fully expect that this team ends up with either a 5-7 or 6-6 record, getting Luke Fickell fired.

Game Thoughts on Penn State - Positives

1. Oh boy. Let's start with the good things because that won't take very long.
2. Carson Hansen looked bad starting the game with four carries in the first quarter, and RB coach Savon Huggins used a quick hook; Hansen didn't have another carry. Huggins instead featured James Peoples, who looked considerably better than Hansen, with a sprinkling of Quinton Martin mixed in for his explosiveness.
3. Despite having a big lead, then a smaller lead, then a deficit, offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser kept dialing up deep shots. Whether they were designed as kill shots or game-saving plays, Mouser put QB Rocco Becht in position to make big plays. There's a narrative that PSU called an ultra-conservative game, but that simply isn't true. Mouser called a sufficiently aggressive game. The team just couldn't make it matter.
4. Josiah Zayas. What an exciting young player who made a great play.
5. Daryus Dixson and Tony Rojas both starred in coverage and both also came away with well-deserved interceptions.
6. The primary linebackers -- Rojas and Kooper Ebel -- were both very impressive on the whole. Even Alex Tatsch delivered a punishing tackle.

Game Thoughts on Penn State - Negatives

1. There's a lot to pull from here. It has to start with Becht. After having his way with PSU's non-conference opponents, Becht looked completely overwhelmed by Wisconsin's likely Big Ten league-average defensive unit. He missed on so many throws that they're hard to track. Of course, the two biggest that stood out were deep shots to wide open Brett Eskildsen, both of which Becht underthrew badly. He also overthrew Eskildsen early. Becht also took an inexcusable sack on the game's final drive. Even a checkdown would've meant a 10-yard swing that could've kept the offense on schedule instead of feeling desperate. Becht's total line is horrendous -- 12/29 for 114 yards with a pick -- but the low completion percentage wasn't some mirage of the desperation drive. Becht entered that final drive with a line of 10/19 for 89 yards. Speaking of that pick, Becht had three different passes tipped at the line. Bad. There were plenty of plays to be made in this game; Becht missed them all.
2. The offense, as a whole, was almost impossibly bad. The team scored 20 points, but the offense had almost nothing to do with that, producing one true scoring drive. The scores:
1. A field goal drive that began at the Wisconsin 40 -- nearly already in field goal range -- after a suffocating drive from the defense and a strong punt return from Zay Robinson. The offense got to 2nd down at the 1, then lost three yards, threw a pass into a DE's arms, and kicked a FG.
2. The Zayas pick-six.
3. A three-play, 11-yard touchdown drive set up by Dixson's interception return. This was a good job of converting the short field into a touchdown.
4. A 13-play, 56-yard field goal drive that took seven minutes. This one had two big plays with a pass to Sowell and a timely scramble from Becht.
3. There is no pass rush. The concern was that Max Granville would be desperately missed, but even I didn't think that it would be this bad. Wisconsin's offensive tackles were both terrible, yet Ikenna Ezeogu, Yvan Kemajou, Alex McPherson, and Caleb Bacon were entirely incapable of making life difficult on Joseph at all. We're not just talking about sacks; there was effectively no pressure at all.
4. Defensive Coordinator D'Anton Lynn employs his defensive tackles much differently than Brent Pry, Manny Diaz, and Tom Allen before him, opting for hulking, run-stuffing DTs that lack pass rush ability. Those DTs did their jobs for three quarters, and then completely fell apart in the 4th quarter. In the 4th quarter alone, the defense surrendered the following rushes:
1. A 12-yard scramble from Joseph
2. A 5-yard scramble for Joseph to set up a 4th and inches that he subsequently converted
3. A 17-yard gash from Darrion Dupree
4. A 13-yard interior run from Dupree
5. A 6-yard interior run from Dupree
5. The Nittany offense produced four straight three-and-outs in the 4th quarter of this game.
6. It did seem like Eskildsen could've fought back for some of the balls that Becht underthrew to him. He's clearly a speedy athlete who isn't a great receiver.
7. Matt Campbell took three minutes to decide to go for it on 4th and 1 at his own 38 to start the 4th quarter, didn't like the look, and called timeout with 21 seconds remaining on the play clock instead of (i) just going for it, or (ii) rushing out his punt unit to kick the ball away. Burning a second half timeout to save five yards is bad. Doing it off of the end-of-quarter break is inexcusable.

Nittany Football Problems That Are Bigger Than Just the PSU-Wisconsin Game

1. Again, there's a lot here.
2. There are two huge problems with the collection of players that Campbell brought with him from Iowa State: (i) they don't seem to play well together, and (ii) many of them are much more limited that we even feared.
1. Marcus Neal was expected to be a veteran leader with subpar coverage skills and strong run defense. Instead, his run defense has been find and he absolutely can't cover.
2. Becht cannot connect with Eskildsen, who is fast but can't play the ball.
3. Hansen is unplayable and clearly RB4 at this point.
4. LG Trevor Buhr was largely responsible for giving up the brutal sack on the final series, passing off the Wisconsin DT to nobody.
5. Numerous players that came over with Campbell don't play meaningful roles at all, highlighted by or truly don't play. LB Cael Brezina got three snaps on Saturday.
6. TE Gabe Burkle has been terrible; perhaps he's still injured?
7. Caleb Bacon is playing DE out of necessity, so perhaps some grace is due here, but he was terrible.
8. DT Alijah Carnell got five snaps.
3. Campbell had a couple of days to think about Saturday's catastrophe before attending his Monday press conference, yet he still ended up in front of the press corps and repeatedly explained that he chose to sit on the ball at the end of the first half and punt on 4th and 1 out of fear of something bad happening. Um, what?
4. So much has been made about the failures of the Penn State offense in the 4th quarter. That's fair because they were dreadful late. But it wildly understates just how poorly the offense played for the entire game. The offense dropped from 14th in SP+ to 28th in one mid-season week -- that's hard to do! 

Nittany Non-Football Problems That Are Bigger Than Just the PSU-Wisconsin Game

1. The Beaver Stadium renovation is terrible. It's not bad; it's terrible. The sideline seating used to slowly slope up 110 rows from the field level to the back of the sideline upper sections, creating the effect of one giant section of fans; some were closer to the field, some further, but everyone was in the same area. The suites will surely be nice if you're inside them, but the cost of adding the suites is that the West upper deck sections are now terrible seats. The West side upper deck fans are far away and terrifyingly steep. As a result, nobody wants to sit there. The atmosphere will suffer.

Where Do We Go From Here?

It's not about making the College Football Playoff. There was a world where Penn State went 10-2 this season, with losses to two out of the three mid-season matchups with USC, Michigan, and Washington, and still missed the Playoff; that would've been tough. We're well past that! Bowl eligibility is on the line at this point. The things that Penn State does poorly -- rush the passer, have Marcus Neal cover a speedy player, run block, and throw to anyone other than Koby Howard -- is what every opposing team will key in on the rest of the way and there doesn't appear to be a ready-made answer in the Lasch Building.

This team isn't terrible. But they're just not very good either.

What does that mean? Frankly, Campbell's tenure is already at five-alarm fire territory. The expectations for success in 2026 are fundamentally different than they were even a decade ago. Penn State is spending something in the neighborhood of $30M on this year's roster and $700M on the Beaver Stadium improvements. Embarrassing losses back athletic departments into corners, and PSU AD Pat Kraft is already in the corner, having eaten nearly $50M on the James Franklin contract (before the wildly-reduced buyout) to hunt for a championship. Kraft cannot afford to be patient with Campbell if he scuffles to the tune of four or five losses a year; if he sticks with Campbell too long, Kraft himself will hit the unemployment line.

Campbell was in the tricky spot of needing a 10+ win season in 2026 in his first year in State College. Why? The 2026 schedule is as favorable as it can possibly be in the modern Big Ten. In 2027, Nittany gets Michigan and Washington at home and takes trips to Wisconsin (whatever), Illinois (can be tough), Indiana (yikes), and Oregon (YIKES!). There are a number of expected losses in that bunch. 2028 is dramatically worse with home games against the current top five teams in the Big Ten (Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa, Oregon, and UCLA) and road trips to Nebraska and USC. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Penn State go 6-6 in 2026, 7-5 in 2027, and 5-7 in 2028. If that happens, Campbell won't make it to year four.

Is this a huge overreaction? Could be! But in the modern era of college football, coaches at big-time programs won't get four years to put things together. Not with the Portal, not with the dollars being spent on the rosters, and certainly not with Penn State needing to continue growing the program to pay for the expenditures already incurred. It appears dramatically more likely that Campbell suffers a losing season and gets fired before year four than it does that he ever makes the Playoff.

Now, to be fair, I was all the way out on James Franklin in 2015 and especially so in September 2016 after watching his team lose by 39 in Ann Arbor. We all know what happened next: the team flipped the switch, ripped off 11 straight wins, and entered a new era of excellence, albeit one that existed permanently a tier below the nation's elite.

Could Campbell get there? Honestly, I don't think so. Campbell's path to success involves coaching up and developing somewhat talented players whereas Franklin's path involved recruiting elite talent and hiring top assistants. Campbell somehow features the same gameday shortcomings as Franklin but without any history of recruiting at a top level or the northeast/DMV connections that fueled Franklin's success on the trail.

It only just began. But it's over, baby.

12 Predictions for the 2026 Chicago Bears Season

I completed my deep dive on the 2026 Chicago Bears here. There's plenty of detail in that piece analyzing the roster that GM Ryan Poles has built and with which Head Coach Ben Johnson and Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen will go to battle.

But that piece addressed the team in broad strokes. This piece will address specific predictions for the team, encompassing thoughts that didn't otherwise have a natural home in the full preview. So, here are a dozen predictions about the season to come.

1. QB Caleb Williams will become the first Bears QB to eclipse 4,000 passing yards in a season.
1. This isn't too aggressive, right? Williams got to 3,942 yards last season. The Bears figure to throw the ball plenty in 2026 and Williams should continue his growth with Johnson. 4,000 yards are coming. This is a bet that (i) the offensive line stays healthy enough and produces, and (ii) Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and Colston Loveland prove to be an elite trio. I believe all of that, so here we go.
2. The Bears will field a bottom-five defense by EPA/play.
1. Ugh. This one isn't fun like the first one. The Bears defense finished 19th in EPA/play last year, so falling to 28th or worse is quite the drop. So what gives? Well, Poles did nothing to improve the pass rush and actually made it worse, trading away top interior rusher Gervon Dexter. Dexter was a terrible run defender in 2025, but Poles didn't replace him with a high quality run defender. He replaced him with Neville Gallimore, Kentavius Street, and Jordan van den Berg. We all have hope that van den Berg's elite athletic profile translates into production in 2026 in a way that it never did at Georgia Tech or Penn State, but short of van den Berg being an All-Pro as a rookie, the DL figures to be worse in 2026. The LB group should be about the same. The CB group should be similar, with hope that Malik Muhammad can handle the slot and Jaylon Johnson returns to his top form; no comment regarding Kyler Gordon, whose career might be over. But the safety room will be worse and could be dramatically worse having swapped out above-average starters Jaquan Brisker and Kevin Byard for an exciting rookie (Dillon Thieneman) and Coby Bryant's season-crippling knee injury. Yikes! Forced to peg the specific spot, I'll guess that the Bears land at 30th in EPA/play.
3. The defense will force turnovers at less than half of the rate they did in 2025.
1. There are two parts to this prediction: luck and the schedule. Last year, 18.3% of opponent possessions ended with a turnover, the highest rate of any team since Pittsburgh in 2019. So, the Bears are due for massive luck regression. But dig in deeper and it's even more daunting. Of the Bears' 33 takeaways in 2025, 14 of them came courtesy of Spencer Rattler's Saints, Geno Smith's Raiders, Joe Flacco's Bengals, and Shedeur Sanders's Browns. They've been replaced on the 2026 schedule with names like Kyler Murray, Drake Maye, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, and Josh Allen. There will still be opportunities for takeaways, to be sure. But the defense is bad and the opposition looks better. Yikes! A 9.1% takeaway right would've ranked 21st in the league in 2025. It's well within the realm of possibility.
4. Luther Burden will emerge as the #1 WR...but he'll be in a tight battle with TE Colston Loveland all season to be the #1 target in the offense.
1. The Bears are going to give up a lot of points, so they'll spend plenty of time playing from behind. As a result, they'll need to throw the ball, and there's nobody better to handle the ball than Burden. I don't know how much more Williams will prefer Burden to Odunze, but Burden is better at getting open and better at creating with the ball in his hands. It's an easy call.
5. The Bears will have no Pro Bowlers on defense.
1. Yikes! Making the Pro Bowl isn't a terribly high bar. The only players with a plausible chance to make it are CB Jaylon Johnson, DE Montez Sweat, and LB Devin Bush if Bush meshes immediately with the roster. But I don't see any of them getting there.
6. The Bears will have either four or five Pro Bowlers on offense.
1. I'm torn here. I feel good about Williams, Loveland, LG Joe Thuney, and RT Darnell Wright. I'm torn on whether Burden or RG Jonah Jackson can sneak in there, but I don't think that the Bears will win enough games to garner all of those post-season individual accolades. Let's stick with four then.
7. DE Austin Booker will lead the team in sacks...but he'll do so with less than 6.5 sacks.
1. That is a seriously paltry number. Allen will send numbers with regularity to generate the pressure that he's not getting from his front four. Booker has shown some juice and also proved unable to stay healthy. So, here's a bet that he garners roughly a sack in every other game that he plays, missing a few games and getting to 6.0 sacks on the year.
8. We will hear an unholy amount about QB Caleb Williams's completion percentage...and it will continue to be a red herring.
1. I chuckle every time I hear about Caleb's completion percentage. He's like Steph Curry. Here's a thought experiment: would you rather have a center shoot 55% on exclusively two-point shots or a guard shoot 45% on exclusively three-point shots? It's not a hard question to answer: the center scores 1.1 points per shot whereas the guard scores 1.35 points per shot, blowing the center out of the water despite the lower shooting percentage. Caleb is a three-point shooter, hunting for big plays. Could he eschew those plays with more frequency to improve his completion percentage? I mean, yeah, sure, but why would you do that? Of course, we all want every play to work and to have Caleb complete 100% of his passes, all of them for touchdowns. But in the real world, I'd rather have a 60% completion percentage with big plays all over the place as opposed to 2016 Sam Bradford with his 71.3% completion percentage...and absolutely no big plays anywhere.
9. The Bears will feature a top-five offense by EPA/play.
1. The club jumped from their normal home in the 20s all the way up to #9 in 2025. They were dramatically better in the second half of the season, and even in the absence of WR D.J. Moore and LT Ozzy Trapilo, I expect further progression into the upper echelon of the entire NFL this year.
10. GM Ryan Poles will trade at least one future draft pick for a defensive lineman during the 2026 season.
1. Poles really has his hands tied here. If the offense produces as hoped/expected, the Bears will have the chance to be a top team in 2026. However, if the defense simultaneously faceplants as expected, Poles will have no choice but to supplement that unit during the season if he can. By late-October, some number of teams will have joined the Dolphins in dumping their 2026 team in favor of future glory, and Poles will be there to dangle picks to try to save his job. As of now, the following players appear to be the most likely targets:
1. Arizona DE Josh Sweat
2. Las Vegas DE Maxx Crosby
3. Miami DE Chop Robinson
4. Miami DT Zach Sieler
5. New York Jets DT David Onyemata
6. New Orleans DE Chase Young
7. Washington DT Tim Settle
8. New York Giants DE Kayvon Thibodeaux
9. Indianapolis DT Grover Stewart
10. Cleveland DT Maliek Collins
11. Dennis Allen won't be brought back as DC.
1. It won't be fair. None of this will be Allen's fault. He didn't build the defensive roster.
12. GM Ryan Poles will be fired.
1. Yes, I really think that the defense will be that bad. Poles has built a wonderful offense helmed by an elite mind and a top QB. But after using nine of his 11 top-100 picks on offensive players from 2024-26 and whiffing on his primary defensive free agents last year (Jarrett and Odeyingbo), the defensive cupboard is bare. If the Bears post a losing record in 2026 despite an MVP-caliber season from Williams, Poles is out.

Can the Chicago Bears Repeat Atop the NFC North in 2026? Bears Season Preview

I won't bury the lede: probably not. But 2026 can still be a great season. Here's my look at the 2026 Bears position-by-position followed by an examination of their schedule and picks for the season.

Remember: no grade inflation, so:

• A: elite
• B: above-average (this is very good!)
• C: NFL average
• D: below-average
• F: bad

Coaching

This is one of the team's biggest advantages and possibly their biggest wild card, too. Ben Johnson rules. He motivated the team last year and found a way to get the squad to come back from deficits more than any other team in the NFL in 2025. Can he do it again? I don't know. But he is a football psycho and shows all of the signs of being a top-tier coach.

Dennis Allen had an OK season in 2025, taking a unit with below-average talent and producing acceptable results fueled heavily by turnovers. There's no way that the Bears will secure as many turnovers in 2026 and the defensive roster is even less talented than it was in 2025, so Allen will need to produce incredible results to have a decent stop unit.

Richard Hightower has his work cut out for him with the amount of turnover on his Special Teams units, but Tory Taylor and Cairo Santos will be back kicking the ball so the floor is high. Kudos to Santos specifically; I long lamented his lack of power but he has done a great job kicking low successful balls in Chicago.

Grade: A-

Quarterback

Caleb Williams is on superstar trajectory. Tyson Bagent is a very exciting backup under control for two more years. Case Keenum is a QB coach masquerading as a #3 QB.

This is the best Bears QB room ever.

Grade: A

Running Back

This room isn't quite as impressive. OK, that understates things. D'Andre Swift produced a career year in 2025, and he's still just 27, so it's reasonable to expect that he'll be solid again in 2026. Kyle Monangai was a good backup in 2025 and should be the same this year assuming his knee holds up after a preseason scare. The #3 spot is probably a toss-up between Roschon Johnson and Salvon Ahmed. Ben Johnson doesn't seem to like Johnson much, so the guess here is that Ahmed.

An average starter, an average backup, and a scrub at #3.

Grade: C-

Wide Receiver

The ceiling is great; the depth is OK. I remain fully obsessed with Luther Burden and think he's ready to lead the way, even with a preseason groin injury. I'm hopeful that Rome Odunze's foot holds up well enough to make him a strong #2 behind Burden. The #3/#4 options are interesting enough, but there is risk here. Kalif Raymond brings plus speed in the #3 job, but he's played just 946 snaps across the last three seasons combined; for reference, D.J. Moore played at least that many snaps in each of the last five seasons. Raymond is well-enough qualified as a #3, but he's miscast as a #2 option if Burden or Odunze goes down.

The next trio is more interesting. Jahdae Walker played just eight snaps until Week 16, then managed 78 productive snaps against the Packers, 49ers, and Lions. Could he step into a bigger role? Hopefully yes. Rookie third-round pick Zavion Thomas brings elite speed but a limited receiver profile. And the sixth option is up for grabs: whether that job goes to Kaden Davis, Ray-Ray McCloud, Maurice Alexander, or Scotty Miller, we're likely talking about someone who doesn't dress on gamedays.

The Burden-Odunze combo is plus. The depth is interesting but, on the whole, looks below average. Which might not be a huge problem because...

Grade: B-

Tight End

...wow. What an embarrassment of riches. My complaints about Cole Kmet centered on his inability to be a true ace TE. Instead, he's a low-end #1 TE. As a #2, though? He's well overqualified. Sam Roush wasn't an elite prospect -- he has shorter arms -- but a #3 TE with a 9.93 RAS is almost too fun for Ben Johnson.

Colston Loveland looks like an elite TE and has a chance to be among the league's best this year if his shoulder behaves. The Bears figure to live in 12 personnel and even dabble in 13 personnel when all three TEs are healthy. There's not a ton to say here. If these guys are healthy, this room should be the NFL's best.

Grade: A

Offensive Tackle

This may be the hardest evaluation on the entire roster. On the right side, the Bears have recently-extended budding star Darnell Wright. Awesome!

On the left side? Who knows! Ozzy Trapilo grabbed the LT job in the second half of his rookie season and didn't look back...until his patellar exploded in January. That surely had Trapilo targeted for Injured Reserve...until he came off of the PUP list last week. If Trapilo is somehow healthy enough to return to form, LT could be strong. If not, Braxton Jones likely gets another crack at the job in a platform year, now a further year removed from surgery. Jones used to run incredibly well; if he has that agility and speed back, he can be an average NFL LT.

If not, however, we're looking at one of Theo Benedet, Kiran Amegadjie, or Jedrick Wills. Benedet should make the team as the swing tackle or the #4 if Trapilo can somehow play. Amegadjie feels like he should've been moved to G last year; the fact that he wasn't could mean that he's headed for waivers. Wills looks like his athleticism is gone after lots of injuries and a year off.

The bet here is that Wright, Trapilo, Jones, and Benedet make the team. That's a solid group.

Grade: B

Interior Offensive Line

This group is led by elite LG Joe Thuney and 2025 surprise Jonah Jackson. Thuney is a star until proven otherwise. Jackson fell off a cliff with the Rams in 2025, then rebounded for a career-best season in 2026 after a dreadful opening night. New center Garrett Bradbury represents a massive downgrade from Drew Dalman following his surprise retirement, but he should be below-average instead of terrible. Surely the hope is that Iowa draftee Logan Jones can wrest the starting job away from Bradbury before the season is over.

I'd still like to see Amegadjie kick inside as a backup to Thuney and Jackson, but it appears that won't be the case. Instead, there's probably a battle between Luke Newman and Jordan McFadden for the backup G spot with a final battle between Amegadjie, Wills, and the Newman/McFadden loser for the last roster spot.

Despite a lack of top depth, this group would've been an A with Thuney-Dalman-Jackson across the inside. But with Bradbury here now, it's a big drop.

Grade: B

Defensive Tackle

And now the party stops. Ugh. This is a terrible group. The Falcons decided that Grady Jarrett was washed following the 2024 season and it looked like they were right before Jarrett showed some flashes late in the 2025 season. Any team employing Jarrett would ideally shield him as the #3 or #4 man in a rotation during the regular season to keep him fresh for January; instead, the Bears are forced into Jarrett being the #1 option at DT at age 33. Unfortunately, his running mate, Gervon Dexter, has turned into a part-time player, offering above-average pass rushing skills with no ability to stop the run whatsoever. The starting duo does not inspire confidence unless Dexter really pops in his contract year.

The depth options are long shots, too. Neville Gallimore played out his rookie deal, then couldn't make it through camp in his first free agent year and signed consecutive minimum-salary deals in 2024 and 2025 before Ryan Poles gave him $5M guaranteed because...well, I'm not sure why. Desperation? Jordan van den Berg is an exciting athlete, but as the 213th pick in the Draft who lacked meaningful collegiate production, it's hard to be excited here. The Bears will either roll with these four, supplementing inside with Dayo Odeyingbo, or offer the fifth spot to James Lynch or Kentavius Street.

Grade: F+

Defensive End

This group is way better than the prior collection, though it still doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Montez Sweat is a roughly average #1 rush end, a hugely important piece to the puzzle. Austin Booker is an exciting prospect opposite Sweat, and the Bears desperately need him to pop in his third year. I loved Booker as a prospect, but it's hard to see him as a full-time starter on a plus defense.

The bodies behind Sweat and Booker all come with serious complications. Dayo Odeyingbo looks like a DE/DT swing lineman at his best, and an unplayable DL with no explosion at his worst. It's hard to expect a ton from him in 2026 coming back from a November 2025 Achilles tear. Shemar Turner is a similar story coming back from an October 2025 ACL tear except that Turner arrived in Chicago with a concerning foot injury history, too. He remains on the PUP list. #5 DE Daniel Hardy is a strong Special Teams contributor, but the Bears don't want him playing on defense with any regularity.

The depth in the room is so uncertain that the Bears recently signed Marcus Davenport, the king of the season-ending injury. I love the idea of Davenport, and he did star in a part-time role in New Orleans for his first five years, averaging 473 snaps per year. Since then, he has played just 487 snaps total. Davenport is an ideal #5 DE and a fine #4 DE. Having him as even the #3 DE is a terrifying prospect. Maybe Jamree Kromah can save the day?

The best teams cycle through three or four plus rushers. The Bears have to squint to see two quality DEs and likely need serious emergence from Booker to sniff having an average group.

Grade: D

Linebacker

I like most of this group. Devin Bush and T.J. Edwards playing starting roles is a good idea, and D'Marco Jackson as the #3/top reserve looks excellent after his strong 2025.

The depth options are trickier. Noah Sewell looked fine as a backup before tearing his Achilles just before New Years. Sewell remains on PUP. Fifth-rounder Keyshaun Elliott should push for a Special Teams role while serving as depth. And then there's Ruben Hyppolite. Hyppolite is a great athlete who is entirely incapable of playing football at a high level. Hyppolite turns 25 in mid-September. Yet throughout the numerous injuries suffered in the LB group last year, Hyppolite only managed 31 terrible snaps. It's hard to see him sticking on the roster.

It seems more likely that once and future Bear Jack Sanborn sticks around over Hyppolite. A group of Bush-Edwards-Jackson-Elliott-Sanborn and maybe Sewell is good enough. This group is a B if everyone is healthy, but there's injury risk with Edwards and Sewell and I think Hyppolite is a full pumpkin, knocking the grade down.

Grade: C+

Cornerback

This group was supposed to be awesome. It might still be awesome. But the questions have gotten loud.

Jaylon Johnson is a #1 CB. In an ideal world, the #2 CB job would be a thrilling battle between Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier, and even Malik Muhammad. Instead, Frazier flamed out of pro football, Smith's patellar exploded last fall, and now the battle is between Stevenson and Muhammad...maybe. Muhammad might be needed in the slot where Kyler Gordon should lead the way but instead remains out indefinitely. Josh Blackwell and Jaylon Jones could also feature in the slot, especially if Muhammad is needed outside. Blackwell and Jones are both core Special Teamers.

I could see the Bears carrying only five LBs to leave space for seven CBs if they want to keep all of Johnson, Stevenson, Muhammad, Gordon, Smith, Blackwell, and Jones. Injuries will likely dictate the specific path here. The lack of inspiring death and big problems with Gordon has this group looking thin.

Grade: D+

Safety

I remain baffled by Poles' approach here. The safety market was flooded, yet Poles went to the top of free agency for Coby Bryant and used a first-round pick on Oregon's Dillon Thieneman. Thieneman should be a core player for many years. The Bears certainly hoped that Bryant would be, too, but a devastating camp injury will likely cost him all of 2026. This makes Cam Lewis -- formerly slated for the competition in the slot -- a necessary starter.

Elijah Hicks and street free agent Xavier Woods offer the depth here. It's even possible that Woods goes from the street to the starting lineup if Lewis is needed elsewhere. Regardless, there is a lot of uncertainty here.

The grade would obviously be much higher -- maybe B- -- if Bryant was healthy. But he's not.

Grade: D

Specialists

I mentioned Taylor and Santos above. They're good. Beau Gardner is a long snapper. I can't tell if there's any difference in quality among long snappers.

Raymond and Thomas both offer elite speed in the return group, so there's a chance for big plays to be found there.

Grade: B-

Management

Poles had a weird offseason. As mentioned above, Poles poured assets into the safety room without getting the big upgrade he wanted, but that's not his fault as Bryant's injury wasn't foreseeable. However, Poles ignoring the defensive line severely limits the team's ceiling. While most of the best teams load up on talent at both DE and DT, Poles has opted for scrubs in the DL rotation. Not good!

Even more confusing, Poles used a second-round pick on a backup C (Jones), a third-rounder on a backup TE (Roush), and another third-rounder on a backup WR/returner (Thomas). All of that depth on offense means that those picks weren't used on defensive starters. Huh?

I'm sure that Poles feels pressure -- conscious or not -- from Johnson to build an elite offense. And that's great. The Bears might have one in 2026. Unfortunately, Poles needs to build a championship roster and he hasn't given Dennis Allen nearly enough to work with on that side of the ball. I remain critical of this approach...but there's a sliver of me that thinks building such a fantastic offense could work, akin to the approach that Cincinnati used in 2021, empowering an elite passing attack to carry a moribund defense to a close Super Bowl loss. Here's hoping for the 2021 Bengals and not the 2025 Bengals team that was kneecapped by an inept defense.

Grade: C-

Ownership

George McCaskey is trying to take a charter franchise and move it from the beautiful Chicago lakefront to either (i) a generic development in the northwest suburbs, or (ii) a brownfield site in Hammond. Is this some kind of joke?

McCaskey even had the gall to suggest that Bear Weather didn't help the Bears against the Rams in last season's Divisional playoffs despite the fact that league MVP Matthew Stafford produced a stinkbomb with a 31.5 QBR, his second-lowest output of the year. Anybody who watched the game saw Stafford's obvious limitations in the conditions, none of which were present when he faced a dramatically better Seahawks defense a week later and produced 374 yards and three touchdowns. Come on, George.

Grade: F

Schedule

The 2026 schedule is a far cry from the 2025 schedule. Needless to say, the sledding will be considerably tougher this year as the slate features the elite NFC North and brutal road trips to Seattle and Buffalo. Yikes!

It's a fools errand to pick specific games, but I'll do it anyway because it's fun.

1. Sun Sep 13 @ Carolina: WIN
2. Sun Sep 20 vs Minnesota: WIN
3. Mon Sep 28 vs Philadelphia: loss
4. Sun Oct 4 vs New York Jets: WIN
5. Sun Oct 11 @ Green Bay: loss
6. Sun Oct 18 @ Atlanta: WIN
7. Thu Oct 22 vs New England: WIN
8. Mon Nov 2 @ Seattle: loss
9. Sun Nov 8 vs Tampa Bay: loss
10. BYE
11. Sun Nov 22 vs New Orleans: WIN
12. Thu Nov 26 @ Detroit: loss
13. Sun Dec 6 vs Jacksonville: WIN
14. Sun Dec 13 @ Miami: WIN
15. Sat Dec 19 @ Buffalo: loss
16. Fri Dec 25 vs Green Bay: loss
17. Sun Jan 3 vs Detroit: loss
18. Sun Jan 10 @ Minnesota: loss

That's an eminently disappointing 8-9 season, made considerably worse by the idea of the Bears being 5-2 and then 8-5 in mid-December. How do we get there? Simple: the Bears seriously lack depth on defense and face four extremely tough, talented opponents to end the season. If Montez Sweat, Jaylon Johnson, or Devin Bush gets hurt, the stop unit is in deep trouble. If Dillon Thieneman gets hurt or struggles as a rookie, it's a five-alarm fire.

In the end, I could see the Bears fielding one of the best offenses in team history. That would be tremendously exciting! But the defense looks so bad that it might not matter. Here's hoping for some serious magic from Dennis Allen.

Previewing Season One for Matt Campbell at Penn State

Boy, this feels weird. I watched a long interview that Josh Pate had with James Franklin recently. It was bizarre seeing Franklin wearing Virginia Tech maroon and orange and discussing his time at Penn State in the past tense. It simply wasn't that long ago that #3 Penn State held the lead over #6 Oregon in overtime with the Ducks facing a fourth down to potentially end the game. We all know what happened next: Oregon scored, then scored again, then Drew Allar threw a dart at Dillon Thienemann, then Penn State tried to sleepwalk through a game against UCLA at the Rose Bowl, then Allar's ankle exploded at the end of a brutal home loss to Northwestern that spelled the end of Franklin's tenure.

Since then, it has truly been a rollercoaster. On the negative side, the 2026 and 2027 recruiting classes vanished, AD Pat Kraft bungled the search for Franklin's successor, and numerous elite-level recruits exited via the Transfer Portal, gutting the roster. On the plus side, Iowa State's Matt Campbell fell into Kraft's lap as the new head coach, Franklin's insatiable appetite to continue coaching saved the football program something like $40M when he settled his buyout to take the VT job, Campbell brought two dozen experienced starters with him from Ames, and Campbell miraculously nabbed a pair of 4* DEs in the 2026 recruiting class, securing the pledge of Elijah Reeder and keeping Jackson Ford in the fold.

Campbell's 2027 class looks underwhelming with only seven 4* verbals to date, but it's hard to judge him too harshly in that respect. He needs to coach some games in State College while recruiting talent simultaneously to judge his recruiting prowess, meaning that the Class of 2028 will be the primary evaulation tool.

Thankfully, the 2026 season happens first. And it's going to be a wild ride. Here's a look at the roster followed by a season prediction.

OFFENSE

Campbell brought offensive coordintor Taylor Mouser with him from Iowa State. Mouser's story is hilarious in much the same way that Eric Murphy's story is hilarious in Entourage. Mouser was working at a Little Ceasar's in Arizona when Campbell offered him a graduate assistant gig at Toledo back in 2015, and Mouser has been attached to Campbell ever since. The Iowa State tight end room speaks highly of Mouser's abilities as a coach, and he'll have the chance to show that he is a talent on the rise with the increased talent level awaiting him in State College.

Quarterbacks

Full disclosure: I wish that Ethan Grunkemeyer was still at Penn State. Instead, longtime Iowa State QB Rocco Becht will start for the Nittany Lions. When he starts against Marshall, it'll be his 40th collegiate start. Becht has a limited ceiling, but as Penn State fans know, ceiling isn't everything: teams led by Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford were more productive than teams led by Christian Hackenberg and Drew Allar despite their 5* pedigrees. There is a ton of pressure on Becht to produce, but even more pressure on him to stay healthy. His backups are Division III transfer SR Connor Barry and RS FR Alex Manske, himself an ISU transfer returning from injury for fall camp. If Becht goes down, the season likely goes down with him.

I expect that Penn State's 2027 starter isn't currently on the roster. Ugh. Welcome to the new world of college football.

Running Backs

This room looks...fine. ISU transfer Carson Hansen reminds me of Akeel Lynch, a solid but unspectacular back. Ohio State transfer James Peoples may be a tick more explosive, but he's hardly a top back. SO Quinton Martin Jr. is the home run threat, so the hope is that the staff finds touches for him. Once again, the Portal will factor into the 2027 RB room.

Wide Receivers

This group is tougher to read. Experienced ISU transfers Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen should lead the way, but it's SO Koby Howard that offers the big-play ability. The WR room has been underwhelming for many years now. Expect that to continue...unless Campbell's black magic with WRs came with him to State College. His work with prior collegiate receivers is very exciting.

Tight Ends

This room looks awfully similar to what it has been in recent years. Even with Luke Reynolds following Franklin to Blacksburg, ISU transfers Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle are hulking athletes and holdover Andrew Rappleyea offers a third big-time athlete in the group. Expect a lot of 12 and even some 13 personnel. All three should hear their names called in the next two NFL Drafts.

Offensive Line

This isn't the best offensive line that Penn State has had in recent years, but this should be a strong group with the chance to be among the best groups in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions return a pair of starters on the right side with Anthony Donkoh at RT and Cooper Cousins at RG. RS FR Malachi Goodman grabbed the LT job early and didn't let it go. He follows in a long line of top LT prospects in State College. The Portal filled the spots next to him with RS JR Trevor Buhr coming from ISU an C Brock Riker arriving from Texas State. The first unit should be good and has a chance to be very good.

Ah, but the depth. The depth is poor. The second-team line -- going left-to-right, that's Owen Aliciene, Will Tompkins, Dom Rulli, Chimdy Onoh, and Garrett Sexton -- has almost no experinece whatsoever and underwhelming recruiting profiles compared to prior versions of the Nittany OL.

The Penn State offense can probably absord one injury. Two or more will be devastating.

Defensive Line

Yikes. My team-building philosophy isn't complicated: if you dominate up front, you'll probably win. Recent top-level PSU teams have been driven by elite offensive and defensive lines. You can't discuss recent squads without discussing the likes of Micah Parsons, Abdul Carter, and Dani Dennis-Sutton. There's only one player on the entire team with that kind of ceiling: RS SO DE Max Granville, who is returning from a summer 2025 injury that wiped out his last year. He'll line up behind SO Yvan Kemajou and RS SO Ike Ezeogu. Is a three-man rotation enough at DE? Simply put, no. So, Penn State needs (i) tremendous health, and (ii) the emergence of an unexpected player or two at DE.

The picture is even darker at DT. Campbell hammered the Portal such that his top three DTs are transfers: RS SR Keanu Williams, RS SR Siale Taupaki, and RS SO Armstrong Nnodim. None of them have huge ceilings. Penn State needs something unexpected here, but it's more likely that Ford, Liam Andrews, or Lavar Arrington II pops at DE.

Linebackers

Unlike on the DL, there is both ceiling and depth here led by stalwart Tony Rojas and ISU transfer Kooper Ebel. They'll be backed up by Caleb Bacon and Cael Brezina. If Alex Tatsch successfully returns from injury, one or more LB may need to push for reps at DE to get on the field.

Secondary

There are enough bodies here to feel really good about this group. Outside, Audavion Collins and Daryus Dixon lead the way with Josh Johnson and Jahmir Joseph behind them. In the slot, Zion Tracy should be a plus full-time player. The safety depth isn't quite as developed, but Jeremiah Cooper is back from injury, Marcus Neal looks like a star in the making, and Jamison Patton and Vaboue Toure offer experienced depth.

Specialists

Ryan Barker is back to handle the kicking after a strong 2025. Transfer Nathan Tiyce should handle the punting. Tiyce will have a hard time matching up with the elite punters before him, but I don't know enough about him to know whether he has the leg to do so.

Overall Thoughts

It's very hard to get a good feel for this team. By my count, Penn State lost 45 players via the Transfer Portal while adding 38. That's a lot of turnover. The number of new faces should make Campbell putting his stamp on the roster even tougher, though it helps that he brought so many of those faces with him.

In my view, this team has a limited ceiling in large part because the OL and DL look good, not elite, and seriously lack depth. There don't appear to be any gamebreakers in the WR or RB rooms, so Penn State's path to success will be fueled by playing dependable complementary football instead of playmaking football. That's a risky proposition against top opponents. Thankfully...

Schedule

My. God. This isn't supposed to be able to happen in the Big Ten in 2026. No Ohio State. No Oregon. No Indiana. That's three of the top-five teams in Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings heading into the season. The only other Big Ten team to avoid the conference's big three is Wisconsin, but the Badgers open their season against #3 Notre Dame. Penn State's non-conference schedule is an abomination and the conference schedule is about as easy as it can get in 2026.

Unfortunately, I don't think that Campbell and his roster will be ready to attack this roster as effectively as, say, the 2019 or 2024 Penn State teams would have. And, unfortunately, it's a one-year-only blip: Penn State travels to Oregon and Indiana in 2027 and hosts all three of Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State in 2028. Those teams could be considerably better than the 2026 squad, but they face much tougher roads to the postseason by virtue of their brutal schedules.

Back to 2026. I looked at advance Vegas odds once a few weeks ago, but I don't remember what they said. So, here's a walk through the schedule with my take on Nittany's win expectancy across the contests:

• Sep 5 vs Marshall: 99%
• This should be a cakewalk with an amped-up and focused PSU team.
• Sep 12 @ Temple: 98%
• Incredible that this is a true road game. Should still be a clear victory.
• Sep 19 vs Buffalo: 99%
• Avoiding a noon kick trap game is the only test here.
• Sep 26 vs Wisconsin: 80%
• Luke Fickell must be desperate in Madison. His defense looks OK but the offense looks awful. This has 20-6 slugfest written all over it. I expect that Iowa @ Michigan gets the Big Noon slot while Oregon @ USC gets a big evening time slot, so this game could be the premium Big Ten game in the 3:30pm slot.
• Oct 2 @ Northwestern: 65%
• A Friday road trip to another time zone against a team opening their new fancy stadium? Yikes! I expect that Northwestern will pull out all of the stops for this one. This presents a big test for Campbell...
• Oct 10 vs USC: 60%
• ...but not as big of a test as this one! This should be the Whiteout. Much like the Oregon Whiteout last year, Penn State gets a West Coast team traveling 2,000 miles for a college football game. It should be a massive advantage. And USC hasn't been nearly as good as Oregon in recent years. Alas, Penn State doesn't look nearly as good as recent Penn State teams either. It's entirely possible that USC is favored by the time this game rolls around. The Trojans will have played consecutive home games against Oregon and Washington before this contest, so they could be beat up.
• Oct 17 @ Michigan: 5%
• Until proven otherwise, Penn State will lose at the Big House. Deeper analysis suggests that this should be a close game. But Paterno struggled in Ann Arbor and Franklin never won a trip there (I don't count the 2020 exhibitions), getting blown out every time. Campbell has to do it.
• Oct 31 vs Purdue: 95%
• Purdue is in a bad spot at the bottom of the Big Ten. Coming off of a bye, Penn State should be able to blow out the Boilermakers.
• Nov 7 @ Washington: 35%
• Demond Williams is very good and should be a problem for many opponents this year, especially teams traveling 2,000 miles to play the Huskies. I expect this to be a close game that has significant bearing on where Penn State plays in January, if at all.
• Nov 14 vs Minnesota: 80%
• I feel good about this one. If this game was on the road? Yikes. But at home, I feel good.
• Nov 21 vs Rutgers: 90%
• Greg Schiano has made Rutgers into a tough out again. Also, Penn State is 33-2 all-time against the Scarlet Knights, winning 18 straight contests.
• Nov 28 @ Maryland: 85%
• Maryland looks OK from a talent perspective, but Penn State should be rolling here whereas Maryland will return home from a trip to the Coliseum that probably won't be very fun.

Adding up those percentages yields 8.91 wins, so let's call that 9-3. Frankly, 9-3 would be a disappointing season against this schedule. If Campbell gets this team to 10 wins, they probably have a 30% chance of making the CFP; the schedule is poor but the Committee tends to like teams with double-digit wins.

If things go well, it'll be because...

1. Becht stays healthy all year. (or, you know, Barry is the 2026 Trindad Chambliss)
2. The beefy Penn State DL that struggles to generate pass rush devours opposing rushing attacks, keeping Penn State in favorable spots against run-heavy teams like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Purdue.
3. One or more of Granville, Ford, and Arrington forces his way into a big role thanks to prodigious pass rush production.
4. Mouser leans into the offensive skill position players on his roster by either (i) featuring the TEs heavily, or (ii) getting a breakout performance from Howard or one of the younger WRs.

If things go poorly, it'll be because...

1. Becht gets hurt. Duh.
2. The OL proves to be merely solid instead of plus turning the easier-looking games into slogs.
3. Nobody emerges at WR forcing the offense through the RBs and TEs exclusively; Penn State has already tried this unsuccessfully in recent years.
4. The team stumbles early against Wisconsin or Northwestern, causing things to snowball the wrong way. Obviously a stumble against an earlier opponent would be disastrous, not just poor.

I'm in a weird spot as a fan. I'm low on this Penn State team, feeling like they're probably an 8-4 squad. That's either because they have underwhelming talent at key spots -- namely DT, DE, and WR -- or because there's a ton of unknowns in light of the coaching changes and Portal activity. Obviously I'm hoping for option #2. The schedule certainly sets up to give this team a chance for a special regular season.

In the end, here's what I see:

• Gloomy: 6-6 (it's a real slog)
• Rosy: 11-1 (avoid the traps, split the trips to Ann Arbor and Seattle, run the table at home)
• Expectation: 9-3 (losses to USC, Michigan, and Washington)
• Going 9-3 against this schedule likely renders PSU as the 8th best team in the Big Ten behind Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Washington, Michigan, USC, and Iowa, landing in the same tier as Nebraska and Illinois. Bleh.

An 11-1 Penn State team likely hosts a first round CFP game. A 9-3 team has a 0% chance of making the CFP, instead settling for a January trip to Florida.

Here's hoping for some more wins in 2026 than in 2025!

Well, Jed Hoyer Certainly Had a Trade Deadline

Perhaps more than any other team in MLB, the 2026 Chicago Cubs approached the Trade Deadline last Monday with incredible clarity. The position players are elite, producing three more fWAR than the next closest group, the dreaded Dodgers. But the pitching? Yikes! Between injuries -- so, so many injuries -- and some ineffectiveness, Cubs pitchers produced a bottom-five fWAR through July.

And man, those injuries. It has been insane. The Cubs' Injured List pitching staff is undeniably a playoff-caliber collection of talent. For reference, a healthy starter should have thrown 120-130 innings thus far (Shota Imanaga is at 132.2 IP and Colin Rea is at 117.2 IP despite a few relief appearances) whereas a healthy reliever should be at roughly 50 innings (Jacob Webb is at 50.2 IP). Here's the brutal injury story:

Starters

1. Justin Steele (0 IP this year)
2. Cade Horton (7.1 IP this year)
3. Ben Brown (pitched like an ace...but only for 68.0 IP)
4. Matthew Boyd (72.2 IP this year)
5. Edward Caberera (72.1 IP this year)

Relivers

1. Daniel Palencia (16.2 IP this year)
2. Hunter Harvey (4.0 IP this year)
3. Riley Martin (8.1 IP this year)
4. Phil Maton (27.2 IP this year...and they've been terrible)
5. Hoby Milner (35.2 IP this year)
6. Porter Hodge (0 IP this year)

It's tough. Nevertheless, with the team on track to reach the Postseason but severely lacking in playoff-caliber pitching (apologies to David Peterson, who has been plenty solid!), Jed Hoyer had a clear mission: bring in the arms. And bring in the arms he did, acquiring multiple playoff-caliber starters and an ascending reliever to complement the current roster. To be clear, the 2026 Cubs will benefit in a huge way.

So why in the world am I grumpy about this?

Let's say your spouse sends you to the grocery store and says "I need a gallon of organic whole milk." If you go to a corner store, its entirely plausible that there will be one or even zero options, forcing you to pay whatever price is demanded. Don't do that! Thankfully, if you have a Meijer or other similar large retailer available, you can head to that store and find yourself bombarded with quality options. I like to imagine Jed Hoyer holding a crisp $20 bill in his pocket and looking at the milk refrigerator. There are so many options. Option A costs $7, Option B costs $8, Option C costs $6, Option D costs $18, Option E costs $19, and Option F costs $3. Maybe Option D came from the rolling hills of Northern England, Option E offered small-batch milk, and Option F was stomped on a few times so the carton was dented. I don't know. In any event, Jed surveyed the field and must have said, "welp, I can only see Options D and E working for my family." Never mind that Options A, B, and C were all available, absolutely did the job, the store was willing to sell them, and they cost dramatically less. But let's start with Option F.

Hoyer made his best trade in years on Sunday, acquiring playoff starter Kevin Gausman from Toronto for Ty Southisene and Brett Bateman. Gausman arrived alongside his hefty salary -- $23M in 2026 -- so it seems that Hoyer put the Ricketts family money to good use in absorbing this contract. Admittedly, Gausman is 35 and showing some modest signs of slipping from his peak, namely a slight uptick in HR/9 and a slight drop in his fastball velocity from about 94.5 mph down to 93.9 mph. These will be problems for Gausman's agent selling his client on the open market this winter, but 2026 Gausman is largely unaffected, pitching to a tasty 3.50 FIP and amassing 2.6 WAR across 127.1 IP in his age-35 season. He's a playoff starter with a plus fastball and a devastating splitter. With all due respect to Southisene and Bateman, they are horribly flawed prospects with 20-30 grade power such that even their plus speed will likely limit them to bench roles if they mature as hoped. I suspect that Toronto's management required GM Ross Atkins to unload Gausman's money, forcing his hand. Hoyer pounced.

Grade: A

Hoyer next made the same kind of deal, shipping homeless IF Jonathon Long and RHP Jace Beck to Miami for former top-10 pick LHP Braxton Garrett. This transaction is a bit more complicated than the one above, but it follows the same basic approach: trade a flawed prospect who projects as a backup-only player for someone at a desperately-needed spot now. Garrett's 2026 has been a mess coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2024 that also knocked him out for 2025. Despite a rocky climb through the Marlins' system, Garrett was a good Major League pitcher in 2022-23, and it's not crazy to think that he could be so again, either now or in his next two arbitration years. This isn't a marquee acquisition, but it's a great trade.

Grade: A-

And then Jed kept dealing. On Monday afternoon, shortly after acquiring Garrett, Hoyer agreed to acquire RHP Ryan Zeferjahn from the Angels. In a vacuum, acquiring Zeferjahn is good. He's a reliever and the Cubs desperately need more of those. And Zeferjahn does throw really hard with a sweeper that breaks a ton! He even strikes out a ton of batters, checking in at nearly 13 per nine innings this year! Unfortunately, Zeferjahn has a few warts that bear mentioning:

1. He has a subpar pedigree. He was drafted at #107 in 2019 and signed below slot, then peaked at #44 on Boston's prospect list in 2021.
2. Walks. My God. In Zeferjahn's last minor league season (2023), he walked 7.83 per nine. He slowly cut that number, but he still has a dreadful 5.40 BB/9 rate this year.
3. Recent value. Zeferjahn was terrible in 2025, posting -0.6 WAR for the Angels, placing 144th among 147 qualified relievers last year. He surely would've cost peanuts in the offseason.
4. Role. On an Angels team with no dedicated closer (six different Angels have combined for 14 total saves this year), Zeferjahn pitched in the middle innings.

Which brings us to the problem here: the cost. Zeferjahn was Option D among the milks above. He cost $18 and it makes no sense that he did. To get him, Hoyer parted with Moises Ballesteros. Ballesteros has had an underwhelming year, no doubt. He found himself hitting in the cleanup spot in Chicago and he was playing in Iowa by early July. Ballesteros struggled to hit his way on base and to get his plus power to show up in Major League games. But he did all of this in his age-22 season! And just three months ago, he was the club's #1 prospect, ranking #43 in MLB, a few spots ahead of Toronto SS Arjun Nimmala (#49). Had Ballesteros struggled a year at Triple-A, this deal could've made some amount of sense. But he didn't. Ballesteros is $18 of value traded for $5 of value, and that makes absolutely no sense. To make matters worse, Nimmala -- in the midst of an average season at Double-A -- was traded alongside some filler to the Angels for controllable playoff starter Jose Soriano a few hours earlier, someone who was surely a top Cubs target. And it's even worse because the Cubs added sweetener to the deal in the form of Mason McGwire. McGwire is no top prospect; instead, he's Zeferjahn in three years if everything goes right. He's a $1 or $2 throw-in...but why are the Cubs sending the throw-in here? It makes no sense. The only thing that prevents an F grade here is the fact that Zeferjahn is a pitcher and Ballesteros is not.

Grade: D-

And then Jed went even bigger. Ugh. Clay Holmes is a good MLB pitcher. After a strong run of relief pitching for the Yankees from 2021-24, Holmes moved to Queens and the starting rotation and delivered a nice season for the Mets in 2025. But to be clear, "nice" doesn't mean "great" here. Holmes has never had a season of even 2.0 WAR, he's rehabbing a broken leg at the time of this trade, and he's an impending free agent. Even if Holmes comes back this weekend (as hoped) and pitches well for the Cubs, it's impossible for him to produce a ton of value, regardless of role. Tyrone Taylor came alongside Holmes and offers a plus short-side platoon bat in the corner OF. That's nice to have, especially with Ian Happ cratering, but as an impending free agent himself, Taylor surely didn't cost that much. Which brings us to the cost: the Cubs' new #1 prospect and #47 overall SS Jefferson Rojas. A prospect of Rojas's caliber brings back one of two things in a trade: a star or a good controllable piece. Somehow, inexplicably, Rojas brought back neither. It sure seems like Mets POBO David Stearns set a sky-high price and Hoyer blinked.

It is impossible to overstate just how disastrous this trade was. In terms of prospect value, the Cubs could have added Rojas and Ballesteros together to get in the conversation for Tarik Skubal, another impending free agent but also a two-time defending Cy Young winner, not a nice #4 starter or swingman like Holmes. And consider this: at the time of the 2021 trade that sent Javier Baez to New York, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranked #201 overall on Fangraphs and somewhere well outside of the top-100 on MLB.com, behind other Cubs non-elite prospects like Brennen Davis, Cristian Hernandez, James Triantos, Caleb Kilian, and Jordan Wicks. PCA was seen as having an elite glove and a terribly troubling offensive profile that risked scuttling the whole operation. The only concern about Rojas is his ultimate ceiling. Will he get to enough power and show enough range to be an All-Star, or will his slight limitations render him only an average starter on the dirt? Regardless of the answer, he's an immensely valuable prospect with a dramatically higher floor than most players traded at the deadline, he's a consensus top-100 prospect, and most folks see him among the top 50 prospects in baseball.

Even with an important arm coming back in the form of Holmes, this is such a drastic overpay that it's impossible not to fail.

A final note: I've seen lots of commentary about how Rojas won't have a role in Chicago because of the significant contracts held by Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner. To which I say this: hogwash. Rojas could cook for all of 2027 and look to make the Majors in 2028, at which point Swanson will be 34 with only two years left on his deal, Hoerner will admittedly be 31 with five years left on his disastrous extension, and Bregman will be 34 with three years left on his deal. It's entirely foreseeable that Swanson or Bregman (or *gasp* both) will have slowed down considerably by 2028, requiring a new SS to carry the mantle or to spell them a few times a week at the very least. And Pedro Ramirez had no path to the roster this year, yet he already has 117 PAs on his way to something in the neighborhood of 250 PAs. Playing time opens up for good players.

When the 2015 Cubs had Rizzo-Baez-Russell-Bryant across the infield, they didn't tell Ben Zobrist to pound sand because they were all set; they added another awesome player to the mix and it made all the difference en route to a championship. Apologies to Tommy La Stella.

The farm system is now completely barren on the dirt, particularly on the left side. Ramirez is a 2B-only glove. James Triantos is a fringe MLB player and 2B-only with the glove, too. After them, Josiah Hartshorn is the only other top-20 organizational prospect who projects to play on the infield, and even Hartshorn is already limited to 1B in A-ball.

The Cubs had a bevy of outfielders from which to deal, led especially by Kane Kepley and Kevin Alcantara. Surely some sellers would have been interested in those two, perhaps even the Tigers, who also shipped out rental Casey Mize for a relatively middling package headlined by San Diego LHP Kash Mayfield. That kind of price would've been appropriate for a rental.

Rojas for Holmes and Taylor? Not so much.

Grade: F

Hoyer's trade history during his time atop the Cubs' organization was already poor before this deadline. The Gausman deal suggested that he was on a different path and the Garrett deal was a shrewd follow-up. But then it all fell to pieces and culminated in his new worst move as POBO. Brutal.

A Brutal Start to the Rebuild for the Vancouver Canucks

Most of my sports allegiances make enough sense to the people around me. The one that makes the least sense? Vancouver Canucks hockey. The story is simple enough: I fell in love with Pavel Bure in the aftermath of the 1994 Stanley Cup Finals, fueled by the arrival of a Super Nintendo and NHL94 into the formative years of my childhood. My fandom only grew from there, continuing through the ill-fated arrival of Mark Messier, the once-in-a-lifetime maneuvering at the 1999 Draft that brought the Sedin twins to Vancouver, the West Coast Express era, the Todd Bertuzzi-Steve Moore incident, the Luongo trade, the run of Blackhawks-Canucks series, the slow dismantling of the President's Trophy teams into a middling club, the out-of-nowhere 2024 playoff run, and 10 Canucks games in person (seven in Detroit, three in Chicago) with probably thousands experienced between internet radio and, eventually, TV (thanks, ESPN+).

This year was something else. It seems like a distant memory, but the team actually got off to a solid start, finding themselves at 9-9-2 at the season's quarter pole. From there, the season tumbled into the dumpster in spectacular fashion: the club shipped superstar D Quinn Hughes to Minnesota for a solid return including projected top D Zeev Buium, 2C Marco Rossi, former 1st rounder F Liam Ohgren, and a late 2026 1st rounder, going 16-40-6 over their last 62 games. In an NHL landscape dominated by parity, the Canucks landed with just 58 points, 14 points behind 31st place Chicago.

What was it all for? As it turns out, not much!

The Canucks lost the lottery, watching 2016 lottery winner Toronto (Auston Matthews) and 2024 lottery winner San Jose (Macklin Celebrini) jump them despite considerably longer odds. It is particularly galling in Toronto's case: participating in their first lottery since 2016, Toronto will secure the services of Yukon native and former Penn State star Gavin McKenna. San Jose is at the end of their highly successful rebuild, once that will be finished off by the arrival of Swedish sensation Ivar Stenberg. Unfortunately for the Canucks, the drop-off from #2 to #3 is massive.

My brother lamented that the Blackhawks also dropped a pair of spots relative to their place in the standings. I found it difficult to share much sympathy: the Blackhawks have enjoyed five distinct lottery successes since the institution of the lottery system in 1995. While some wins weren't particularly meaningful -- I'm looking at you, 1999, when the Blackhawks jumped from 8th to 4th to select Pavel Brendl! -- they jumped from 5th to 1st for Patrick Kane in 2007 and 3rd to 1st for Connor Bedard in 2023. The Blackhawks have already enjoyed a lifetime of lottery success.

I know that the Canucks haven't. But this sent me down a rabbit hole: just how poorly has the Draft lottery gone for the Canucks? So here goes. This post will now morph into a history of the Canucks in the NHL  Draft lottery. If you're also a Canucks fan, avert your eyes! The list will show the Canucks' odds of obtaining the #1 overall pick along with the position of their odds in parentheses.

• 2026: 25.5% odds of staying at #1 (1st)
• Result: Dropped two spots to #3
• 2025: 1.1% odds of moving up to #5 (15th)
• Result: stayed at #15
• 2024: not a participant
• 2023: 3.0% odds of moving up to #1 (11th)
• Result: stayed at #11
• 2022: 1.1% odds of moving up to #5 (15th)
• Result: stayed at #15
• 2021: 5.4% odds of moving up to #1 (9th)
• Result: stayed at #9
• 2020: not a participant
• 2019: 5.0% odds of moving up to #1 (9th)
• Result: Dropped one spot to #10
• 2018: 7.5% odds of moving up to #1 (6th)
• Result: Dropped one spot to #7
• 2017: 12.1% odds of #1 (2nd)
• Result: Dropped three spots to #5
• 2016: 11.5% odds of #1 (3rd)
• Result: Dropped two spots to #5
• 2015: not a participant
• 2014: 6.2% odds of #1 (6th)
• Result: stayed at #6
• 2013: not a participant
• 2012: not a participant
• 2011: not a participant
• 2010: not a participant
• 2009: not a participant
• 2008: 2.1% odds of moving up to #1 (10th)
• Result: stayed at #10
• 2007: not a participant
• 2006: 0.5% odds of moving up to #1 (14th)
• Result: stayed at #14
• 2005: 2.1% odds of #1 (15th)
• Result: Jumped to #10
• The 2005 lottery was bonkers following the lockout. Four teams had 6.3% odds of #1, 10 teams had 4.2% odds, and the remaining 16 teams had 2.1% odds. So while the Canucks did climb from a 16-way tie for the 15th-best odds, not even the NHL considers this a win due to the largely flat structure of the lottery.
• 2004: not a participant
• 2003: not a participant
• 2002: not a participant
• 2001: not a participant
• 2000: unknown odds of moving up to #1 (11th)
• Result: stayed at #11
• 1999: 16.9% odds of moving up to #1 (2nd)
• Result: Dropped one spot to #3
• 1998: 10.8% odds of #1 (4th)
• Result: stayed at #4
• 1997: 0.5% odds of moving up to #1 (10th)
• Result: stayed at #10
• 1996: not a participant
• 1995: not a participant

There it is. Across 32 lotteries, the Canucks have "enjoyed" the following results:

• Jumped: 1 (sort of -- see 2005 above)
• Stayed: 10
• Dropped one spot: 3
• Dropped two spots: 2
• Dropped three spots: 1
• Not a participant: 15

OK. The results aren't great! But are they really that bad? Yes. Yes they are, for a few reasons:

1. The number of "not a participant" years above is deceptively bad. While the NHL currently features 32 teams with 16 playoff squads and 16 Draft lottery participants, that wasn't the case in the early days of the lottery. When the lottery was first instituted, only 10 of the NHL's 26 teams participated. 61.5% of the NHL teams made the playoffs back then. Given the impact of league expansion in the following years, you'd expect the Canucks to have made the playoffs in roughly 18 of the last 32 years. 15 is below average.
2. The one time that the Canucks "jumped" was so weird that the league doesn't even count it as a jump. Such is life in the post-lockout world.
3. The Canucks have never jumped in the 16 non-lockout lotteries, but they have dropped six times.
4. 1999, in particular, sticks out like a sore thumb. Brian Burke expertly navigated the Draft that year, making deals to acquire the #4 pick, turning it into the #1 pick, and ultimately settling with the #2 pick alongside the club's own #3 pick to nab both Sedin twins. But how much lower would the cost have been to the franchise had they landed at #2 or even #1 with their own pick? In the end, the cost to get #2 in 1999 and #67 in 2000 was (i) 24-year-old top-pairing defenseman Bryan McCabe, (ii) the #11 overall pick in the 2000 Draft, (iii) #75 in 1999, and (iv) #88 in 1999.
5. Nothing above hurts as much as this year. Falling to #3 in a two-player Draft likely sets the Canucks rebuild back at least another year. It's a brutal gut punch.

OK, that's enough for now. Tonight was a bad night for the Canucks. A really bad night. Instead of the rebuild getting turbocharged with a McKenna- or Stenberg-shaped puzzle piece entering the picture, the Canucks are tasked with building this thing up in the image of the Golden State Warriors, turning a bunch of non-elite picks into a somehow-elite roster. It's going to be seriously tough for whoever ends up helming the Canucks ship.

Grading the Chicago Bears Day Three of the 2026 NFL Draft and Roster Outlook

The 2026 NFL Draft is now in the books. Unfortunately, the Chicago Bears are still looking for an impact pass rusher.

Just kidding...but not really. With the overwhelming majority of free agency completed and the Draft now done, GM Ryan Poles somehow navigated the offseason without addressing the team's biggest concerns: a poor pass rush that generated the NFL's 22nd-ranked pressure rate and terrible run defense that permitted 5.0 yards per attempt, ranking 29th. Of note, the only four teams that allowed more yards per carry and their approach to the offseason:

• New York Giants: traded star DT Dexter Lawrence, but then drafted Ohio State Edge Arvell Reese at #5 and Auburn NT Bobby Jamison-Travis
• Cincinnati: signed DT Jonathan Allen and Edge Boye Mafe; traded #10 overall pick to Giants for DT Dexter Lawrence; used their top pick (#41) on Texas A&M Edge Cashius Howell
• Buffalo: signed Edge Bradley Chubb; used their top pick (#36) on Clemson Edge T.J. Parker and a 5th on Penn State DT Zane Durant

But the Bears? Well, you all know. It's bizarre at best and devastating at worst. Here's hoping for bizarre!

Let's look at Poles' work from Day Three of the Draft before turning to the roster for the 2026 season.

Bears Trade #129 and #144 to Carolina for #124 and #166

I liked this trade at first blush. The trade-up is modest, but this is always at a key point in the Draft when teams are still largely working off of tight lists of contributors before moving to dart throws in the rounds that follow. The Draft pick value charts largely agree, to wit:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 77 (43 + 34)
• Bears Get: 73 (48 + 25)
• NET: -4 (equivalent to an early-7th)
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 6.7 (3.7 + 3.0)
• Bears Get: 5.9 (3.9 + 2.0)
• NET: -0.8 (equivalent to a late-6th)
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 1,018 (537 + 481)
• Bears Get: 966 (557 + 409)
• NET: -52 (equivalent to one-quarter of the value of the Mr. Irrelevant pick)

The Bears gave away almost no value and got to get their guy. It's funny to me that all three charts dislike this move; to me, this is the right way to do it.

Grade: B+

#124: Bears Draft Texas CB Malik Muhammad

The DTs I liked the most were all gone, and the DEs that I liked at all were gone, too. So, we reached the true best-player-available phase of the Draft. And Muhammad fits that bill. Like many folks, I can't forget the visual of Muhammad grabbing all of Jeremiah Smith on a PBU way back in Week One, but he is a good looking prospect. The physical profile is strong (9.51 RAS) with elite speed and explosion leading the way, and Muhammad played a ton of football for the Longhorns over the last three seasons.

I do have questions about the roster impact. Muhammad is undeniably behind Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, and Kyler Gordon in the CB room. That likely leaves three spots for the four of Muhammad, Terell Smith, Zah Frazier, and Josh Blackwell. More on this below.

For now, Muhammad is a good player and presents strong value in this spot of the Draft. There's a good chance that he becomes a starter on his rookie deal, but the grade does take a gentle hit due to positional value to this Bears roster.

Grade: C+ (remember, that means a tick above average)

#166: Bears Draft Arizona State LB Keyshaun Elliott

I had to learn about Elliott after the Bears took him. Surprise surprise: he's a plus athlete (8.74 RAS) thanks to tremendous explosion, great agility, and above-average speed. Elliott doesn't look like an athletic freak, but after watching Tremaine Edmunds deliver average production despite freakish athleticism, that's fine.

Elliott should offer both linebacking depth and special teams ability from the jump. He doesn't look exceptionally fast on film, but he does look like a football player. I found his run defense plenty compelling, but his pass defense will need to develop. That's fine for a 5th rounder.

As with Muhammad, there's some pressure on other presumed roster players here, namely Noah Sewell as he recovers from his Achilles tear in December, returnee Jack Sanbord, and even 2025 4th-round flop Ruben Hyppolite. More on this below, too.

Grade: C (average)

Bears Trade #239 and #241 to Buffalo for #213

I liked this trade even better than the earlier one. The 7th round of the Draft is a cesspool. The top of the 7th and the late-6th, however, tend to offer a couple of useful players still. The Bears didn't need roster bodies; they needed to find someone who actually fit their profile and would likely be drafted.

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 2 (1 + 1)
• Bears Get: 5.8
• NET: 3.8 (equivalent to an early-7th)
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 0
• Bears Get: 0.5
• NET: 0.5 (equivalent to a late-6th (for free!))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 425 (225 + 220)
• Bears Get: 283
• NET: -142 (equivalent to two-thirds of the value of the Mr. Irrelevant pick)

The Bears gave away almost no value and got to get their guy to an even greater degree than earlier on Day Three.

Grade: A

#213: Bears Draft Georgia Tech DT Jordan van den Berg

Ironically, van den Berg is the Bears draftee that I've followed most closely -- despite being the last pick -- thanks to his three years at Penn State. The story on van den Berg then was easy: he was a freakish athlete who grew from WR to LB to DE to DT late in high school and early in college. After a pop year at Iowa Western, van den Berg tried to work his way into the Nittany DT rotation...and failed. So, off to Atlanta, where he found his way into a starting role and produced really solid results. His athleticism is unquestioned: his 10.00 RAS (not a typo) was the result of his good size, elite strength, elite explosion, and elite speed. He doesn't even need to be a start, but the path to playing time is entirely open for van den Berg. I love this pick. Would it have been better with another DT two days earlier? Of course! But that doesn't impact the value of adding van den Berg.

Grade: A

OK. The Draft is done. In response to a Bears writer on Twitter, I fired off a quick response as to what I would have done. Having chewed on it just a bit longer, for posterity's sake, here's what I would have liked to have seen the Bears do at each of their spots in the Draft. To keep things fair, I'll assume that I made the same trades that Poles did:

#25: Clemson DT Peter Woods

#57: Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren

#69: Penn State DE Dani Dennis-Sutton

#89: Southeast Louisiana DT Kaleb Proctor

#124: Auburn C Connor Lew

#166: Penn State DT Zane Durant

#213: Texas TE Jack Endries

The rationale for the above is obvious enough: the Bears don't have quality DTs and could really use a pass rushing boost inside. Proctor and Durant would displace Kentavius Street and James Lynch, but each of those signees leave just $100K of dead cap hit behind if cut. Lew fell due to an ACL tear in 2025, but the Bears don't need the center draftee to play in 2026, so they can wait and buy his upside.