Bears Thoughts in Advance of Day Two of the 2023 NFL Draft

I'm pleased with what the Bears did in the first round. But as with anything in life, there's more to it than that. So here goes:

1. Admittedly, I hoped that the Bears would acquire significantly more draft capital if they traded down from #9, but to be fair, I didn't envision the trade only sliding back one spot. An extra 2024 4th from a Super Bowl contender is technically something.
2. Not drafting Jalen Carter makes plenty of sense at this point. I'm sure that we'll hear in the coming years that the Bears took Carter off of their board entirely, hence the smokescreens in recent days that Carter would be the pick at #9 if he made it.
3. I'm happy that Peter Skoronski wasn't the pick. He was a great college player, but the value proposition for a G simply isn't there in the top-10.
4. Darnell Wright is a premium athlete at a premium spot that fills a massive need. That's good. It's not a perfect outcome, but it's very good.
5. Carter-Wright-Skoronski will be inextricably linked when fans evaluate this Bears draft class. Carter was the one chance for a plug-and-play 3 tech DT. With him off to Philly, the Bears defense has a low ceiling in 2023. Skoronski was the can't miss local kid. But the Bears went with Wright, eschewing those two. We'll see how it looks when they approach free agency near the end of the decade.

With the first round all wrapped up, I ran a Day Two mock draft for the Bears today. This draft was run with Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. All accepted trades were reviewed for reasonableness.

To say that this represents a best-case scenario understates just how ideal this outcome would be.

Here goes:

Bears trade #53 to Tampa Bay for #81, #82, and #196
All of my favorite DEs and my top two Cs were gone, so...trade down!

#61: Bears select Auburn DE Derick Hall
Hall isn't a prototype, but he possesses plenty of the necessary characteristics to be a plus starter in the future and a day one contributor. That'll work.

Bears trade #64 to Houston for #65, #259, and a 2024 5th

#65: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
I love so many of the players available in this range. But Dexter is the perfect combination of fit and roster need. A starting-caliber DT is absolutely essential for this roster and the depth options in the draft won't likely get the job done. I think that Dexter can be at least a serviceable 3 tech to start his career.

#81: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton
There's no way Benton will last this long...but if he does, wow! I had a very difficult time choosing between Dexter and Benton, so getting both really changes the feel of this class.

#82: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
LaPorta could be a mid-2nd or he could last until the end of day two. This would be a wonderful spot for the Bears to add my favorite TE.

#103: Bears select Ohio State DE Zach Harrison
Harrison never emerged as the star many expected him to be at Ohio State, but there's plenty to work with here.

#133: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown
If this pick comes down to Brown v. Tulane's Tyjae Spears, the Bears will be very happy with the outcome. I went with Brown.

#136: Bears select Purdue CB Corey Trice Jr.
I like Trice and he's a perfect addition to the roster at this spot. I don't think he's necessarily a starter from the get-go, but he has good tape and a stellar Combine. Extreme length plays well in this defense.

#148: Bears select Purdue WR Charlie Jones
This is a good spot for a receiver given the construction of the Bears roster. Jones is my favorite target. He's incredibly quick, plenty fast, and was insanely productive despite his slight frame. He's a security blanket in the making.

#196: Bears select Penn State C Juice Scruggs
Incredible value here. Scruggs and Doug Kramer might leave the Bears a little light at C, but if the club thinks he can start, this would be idyllic timing.

#218: Bears select Duke LB Shaka Heyward
Heyward should be able to make the roster and contribute on special teams. That's the right target here.

#258: Bears select Penn State TE Brenton Strange
Strange is extremely polarizing in draft circles. I loved watching him at Penn State, but never thought he had much of an NFL future. But at 258? Sure!

#259: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Fulfilling the prophecy that I created.

If the Bears completed the simulated draft above, they'd enter 2023 with the following roster, assuming cuts of Jones, Whitehair, and Lucas Patrick:

QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
RB: Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, Chase Brown, Travis Homer
FB: Khari Blasingame
WR: DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Charlie Jones, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, Sam LaPorta, Brenton Strange
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Alex Leatherwood
G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Larry Borom
C: Juice Scruggs, Doug Kramer

DE: DeMarcus Walker, Derick Hall, Zach Harrison, Rasheem Green, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson
DT: Gervon Dexter, Keeanu Benton, Andrew Billings, Donovan Jeter
ILB: Tremaine Edmunds
OLB: T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Dylan Cole, Shaka Heyward
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Corey Trice Jr., Josh Blackwell
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Jaylon Jones, Elijah Hicks

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales 

Final Chicago Bears Pre-Draft Thoughts and First Round Prediction

This draft will always be remembered as the one where the Bears -- both current and past -- tanked their way to the #1 overall pick (thanks Lovie!)...which GM Ryan Poles subsequently dealt in a masterful deal for a massive haul of picks and new #1 WR D.J. Moore. How Poles uses the picks will determine the future of the franchise even more than how well Moore meshes with QB Justin Fields.

With the draft set to kick off in a few hours, here are my final thoughts about the Bears' approach this weekend along with one final mock draft.

1. Missing out on a 3 technique DT in free agency really stings. Georgia DT Jalen Carter is the only plug-and-play option at that spot in this draft. His off-the-field concerns are significant; at this point, I suspect that he's either atop the Bears' draft board or off of it entirely. But on the field, he's head-and-shoulders ahead of my other favorite possibilities in Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore (undersized, never played DT), Pitt's Calijah Kancey (undersized, very short arms), and Bowling Green's Karl Brooks (poor competition, played DE, very raw). Signing Javon Hargrave or Dre'Mont Jones would have come with their own risks, but doing so would've opened the door for Poles to wheel and deal more freely tonight. If Carter is on the board at #9, I suspect that he's the pick without another trade.
2. Missing out on RT in free agency is just as perplexing. Not paying Mike McGlinchy at a market-setting rate? Totally fine. Not grabbing someone like Kaleb McGary on a modest, short-term deal? Baffling. Unless Poles really loves Larry Borom or Alex Leatherwood -- and that's doubtful -- he needs to find a starting OT this weekend. Desperation oftentimes yields bad results. I don't like the OT options in this draft after the top three of Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr., Georgia's Broderick Jones, and Tennessee's Darnell Wright. Syracuse's Matthew Bergeron and BYU's Blake Freeland would be fine, projectable options, but neither inspires confidence starting in Week One.
3. I really like the C position in this draft and that's especially true with Wisconsin's Joe Tippmann, a huge, athletic pivot. I like Minnesota's John Michael Schmitz, though I much prefer Tippmann given the age gap between them. If either is there at #53, they'll get strong consideration. There should be good depth options in the third round (Ohio State's Luke Wypler) and later (Penn State's Juice Scruggs).
4. There's salary cap efficiency with drafting new starters at DT and C. Cutting Justin Jones saves $4.9M against the cap and Cody Whitehair's exodus would save $5.8M. The Bears don't need this cap space, but being efficient with the cap is the way that all quality organizations operate. If Jones is the starting 3 tech, this defense will struggle again despite the strength of its back seven.
5. I've long felt that the Bears need to add two starting DEs, but I no longer think that's the case. In fact, drafting only one DE could be sufficient. Poles added depth nicely adding DeMarcus Walker and Rasheem Green to Trevis Gipson and Dominque Robinson. Adding two DEs would be fine with Green and Gipson both heading to free agency, but adding only one DE would be fine.
6. I really like the depth of this draft at CB, but I don't want to see the Bears draft one of the top CBs in the first round. Oregon's Christian Gonzalez and Illinois' Devon Witherspoon are good prospects -- especially Gonzalez -- but the Eberflus defense doesn't prioritze CB play. They need long CBs who don't necessarily need top-end speed. There are options on that front. My favorite? Miami's Tyrique Stevenson.
7. There are a dozen quality RBs in this draft. There's absolutely no reason to take one before Saturday. I like Chase Brown (Illinois), Tyjae Spears (Tulane), Israel Abanikanda (Pitt - a fast riser in my eyes), Tank Bigsby (Auburn), and Devon Achane (Texas A&M). Do NOT draft Bijan Robinson. If the Bears don't draft a RB at all, that's fine! Or Tulsa's Deneric Prince at the end of the 7th round? Great!
8. The TE spot is unbelievably deep. I figure that Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) and Dalton Kincaid (Utah) both go in the first round. The second round options -- Georgia's Darnell Washington, Oregon State's Luke Musgrave, and Iowa's Sam LaPorta -- are incredibly attractive, too. If one is available at 61/64, I'd love to see him join the Bears. Later options like Tucker Kraft (South Dakota State), Luke Schoonmaker (Michigan), Zack Kuntz (Old Dominion), and Brenton Strange (Penn State) are also very attractive. In particular, if Schoonmaker is available in the fourth or fifth round, he'd be a great pick. I really want one of these TEs on the club.
9. Draft Michigan K Jake Moody. Cut Cairo Santos. Santos is fine, but it's time for the Bears to grab a kicker with a big leg. That's Moody. Hopefully in the seventh.

Here's my final, draft day mock draft for the Bears. This draft was run with Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. All accepted trades were reviewed for reasonableness. For example, today's first mock featured three excellent trades for the Bears:

    Trade #1: Bears trade #9 to Tennessee for #11 and #72
    Trade #2: Bears trade #11 to New England for #14 and 2024 2nd
    Trade #3: Bears trade #14 and #72 to Washington for #16 and #47

But it's horribly unrealistic to trade down three times to get from #9 to #16. So that doesn't work.

Here goes:

Bears trade #9 to New York Jets for #15 and #43

#15: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
I was tempted to trade down again with the Giants, sending #15 and #258 to New York for #25 and #57. But no. The desperate need at OT rears its head. And Wright is an ideal fit, so I kept the pick and made it.

#43: Bears select Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey
Kancey is a polarizing prospect. He's very small for a college DT, so he's positively miniscule for an NFL DT. His arms are multiple inches shorter than his nearest comp. But he's unbelievably quick and fast with a power body despite his stature. If he was two inches taller and his arms were two inches longer, he'd be a top-10 pick. At #43, it's worth the risk if he makes it this far.

#53: Bears select Wisconsin C Joe Tippmann
I'm a huge fan of Tippmann and this is a good spot for him. Unfortunately, the best pass rushing DEs were already gone by this point. Gulp.

#61: Bears select USC DE Tuli Tuipulotu
Tuipulotu is my least favorite of the top-100 edge rushers. I don't think he'll be quick enough to succeed as a pass rusher in the NFL. But he was quick enough for a 290-pounder last year and showed up at the Combine at 266. He'd be an intriguing option that should help in run defense. That's enough for me.

#64: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
I love so many of the players available in this range. But Dexter is the perfect combination of fit and roster need. Another starting-caliber DT is absolutely essential for this roster and the depth options in the draft won't likely get the job done.

#103: Bears select Mississippi WR Jonathan Mingo
I did not like this spot in the draft. I'm not a bing Mingo fan, but this is a solid spot for him. I'm surprised that Dante Pettis snagged $152,500 guaranteed from the Bears, but Mingo costs him his roster spot.

#133: Bears select Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker
An easy call. Finally. I love Schoonmaker as a prospect despite his alma mater. He's a perfect addition to the TE room from a pro offense with plenty of athleticism and blocking skill.

#136: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown
If this pick comes down to Brown v. Tulane's Tyjae Spears, the Bears will be very happy with the outcome. I went with Brown.

#168: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss
I like Moss a ton and he's a perfect addition to the roster at this spot. I don't think he's necessarily a starter from the get-go, but he has good tape and a stellar Combine. (I don't like that he ruined the Penn State-Iowa game for me in 2021.)

#218: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks
Brooks played DE in the MAC, so he'd have a way to go before becomming a useful NFL DT. But he's a perfect ball of clay and in this scenario, he'd fit in wonderfully behind Kancey, Dexter, and Andrew Billings as a developmental piece.

#258: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Fulfilling the prophecy that I created.

Chicago Bears Mock Draft - Two Weeks Out

I did a boatload of mock drafts around the time of free agency, but it's been a while. Since then, PFF has done away with their superb draft simulator, so tonight's iteration was prepared using NFL Mock Draft Database.

(Note: proposed trades on NMDD are all over the place. Some offers are laughably low; some are laughably high. I rejected all offers that seemed out of whack.)

Following free agency, the Bears have massive needs on the defensive front along with needs for additional talent on the offensive line, at tight end, and running back. So, without further adieu, here's a look at a pretty tasty draft scenario.

Bears trade #9 to Houston for #12 and #65
After picking a DE at #2, Houston moves up a few spots to jump Tennessee to nab Florida QB Anthony Richardson. The Bears pick up another starter in the swap. Easy call.

Bears trade #12 and a 2024 4th to New York Giants for #25, #57, and a 2024 2nd
Unlike the first trade, this one is much tougher to swallow. With Paris Johnson Jr. still on the board, the Bears have a plug-and-play cornerstone tackle available. But the value here is too good to pass up, so the Bears facilitate the Giants moving up for Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

#25: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
Nice! This would be a stellar outcome for the Bears. Pick up a handful of additional tasty picks and still come away with a day one starter at RT.

#53: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
I remain a huge fan of LaPorta. When there's a quality Iowa TE available, take him, especially if you have a young QB in need of weapons.

#57: Bears select Auburn DE Derick Hall
Hall is my least favorite of the DEs expected to be taken in the 1st or 2nd rounds, but in this mock, there was a huge run on DEs in the mid-2nd. The Bears need a starter at DE, so Hall fits the bill.

#61: Bears select Wisconsin C Joe Tippmann
While many Bears fans lust after Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz, nabbing either Tippmann or Schmitz would be a tremendous step. This greases the skids on a Cody Whitehair release and saves $8M+ against the cap.

Bears trade #64 to Denver for #67 and #108
That's too much value for the Broncos to send. Obviously the Bears have to take such a deal.

#65: Bears select Miami CB Tyrique Stevenson
I'm a huge fan of Stevenson. He's got enough athleticism to play on the outside, kicking Kyler Gordon to the plot on a permanent basis.

Bears trade #67 and #148 to Indianapolis for #79, #106, and a 2024 4th
A trade that acknowledges that the Bears don't see great value in this spot in the draft after such a big run in the late 2nd/early 3rd while bringing up #148 to a much more useful spot.

#79: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks
In a draft lacking impact three technique options, I remain obssessed with Brooks. He might be the player that I most want the Bears to draft, whether at #50 or #150. I don't think he'll last that long given his athletic profile.

#103: Bears select Army DE Andre Carter II
Carter looked like a fringe 1st before the Combine. Now? This might be a little high for him. He has incredible quickness and an amazing frame, but he's mostly a ball of clay at this point.

#106: Bears select Tulane RB Tyjae Spears
Spears exploded onto the scene during Tulane's magical 2022 season. He'd offer speed and explosiveness with pass catching skills. This is a good spot for him.

#108: Bears select Wake Forest WR A.T. Perry
Perry is huge, productive, and plenty athletic. His hands have been inconsistent, but he has the profile of a good starter. This is great value for him.

#133: Bears select Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker
Schoonmaker is one of the big winners of the Combine. His athletic profile proved much more impressive than expected.

#136: Bears select Texas OLB DeMarvion Overshown
Overshown is similar to Carter in that he's remarkably fast with a good frame, but he's not strong enough to play in the NFL right now.

#218: Bears select Coastal Carolina DT Jerrod Clark
The Bears basically must take a flyer at DT at this point in the draft. Clark isn't going to wow anyone, but he should be a playable option given his advanced age and physical profile.

#258: Bears select Pittsburgh OT Carter Warren
This pick was going to be Warren, Eastern Michigan DE Jose Ramirez, who I also adore, or Michigan K Jake Moody. Moody is definitely getting drafted and possibly a round or two earlier. I ultimately settled on Warren, a draftable body with a 2022 injury that will hurt his stock.

The improved depth from this draft has me on cloud nine. This roster is so much better. Here's the depth chart:

QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
RB: Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, Tyjae Spears, Travis Homer
FB: Khari Blasingame
WR: DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, A.T. Perry, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, Robert Tonyan, Luke Schoonmaker
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Larry Borom, Carter Warren
G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Alex Leatherwood
C: Joe Tippmann, Doug Kramer

DE: DeMarcus Walker, Derick Hall, Andre Carter II, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson, Rasheem Green
DT: Justin Jones, Andrew Billings, Karl Brooks, Jerrod Clark
ILB: Tremaine Edmunds
OLB: T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, DeMarvion Overshown, Dylan Cole
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Tyrique Stevenson, Josh Blackwell
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Jaylon Jones, Elijah Hicks

ST: Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

Is this 53-man roster a winner? Probably not in a big way in 2023. But it lays the foundation for (i) a winning team, and (ii) a quality evaluation of Justin Fields. My goodness, that sounds so much better than 2022.