October 25, 2009 was a beautiful fall
day in Ann Arbor. OK, it was drizzly and cold, but that didn't matter as Daryll
Clark and the Nittany Lions roared into the Big House at 6-1, ranked 13th in
the land and ready to end the second portion of a deeply unpleasant skid. From
1997 through 2007, Penn State and Michigan played nine times. Michigan went 9-0
during that stretch, including four straight one-score victories from 2002-07.
2008 looked like it would be different as the Nittany Lions were scorching at
7-0, hosting a battered 2-4 Michigan team struggling with the transition to
Rich Rodriguez's offense. Naturally, Michigan led 17-7 with two minutes left in
the first half before Nittany ripped off 39 straight points to complete a 46-17
rout. That was awesome.
But it was also at Beaver Stadium. Winning in Ann Arbor had
been an entirely different story. The Big House had become a house of horrors
in the 2000s with no loss more painful than the sole blemish on the 2005
docket. Henne to Manningham. Ugh.
Anyway, I was scouting out law schools in the fall of 2009
and late October called for a visit to Ann Arbor. Michigan Law was great, but
I'd be lying if I said the focus of the weekend wasn't on Saturday afternoon.
Brother Mike and I scored third row seats in the end zone and settled in for a
wet affair. As so often happens in Penn State-Michigan contests, the Wolverines
easily drove the field to take an early lead and Nittany held only a narrow
10-7 lead late in the second quarter before blowing the game open thanks to a
safety on an errant snap followed by a 60-yard touchdown pass. In the end,
Clark pieced together one of his finest afternoons, throwing for 230 yards and
four touchdowns while Evan Royster chipped in 100 yards on the ground. The
defensive highlight was linebacker NaVorro Bowman intercepting reserve Michigan
quarterback Denard Robinson. I wonder whatever happened to that guy…
I bring up October 25, 2009 both because it is my favorite
in-person Nittany memory and because it is the only time Penn State has won a
game in Ann Arbor since 1996, a pitiful 1-8 record over that stretch.
There's also the matter of how James Franklin fares in big
games. Simply put, he turtles. He never fails to coach an ultra-conservative
game whenever he feels that Nittany is the favorite, something that nearly
always occurs far too early in the contest. One manifestation of that: Franklin
is 1-12 in his career on the road versus teams that ended the year in the AP
top-25, a mark that is difficult to fathom for a coach that has spent the
majority of his coaching career at a traditional football factory. The only win
came last year against Northwestern. 2018 Michigan is not 2017 Northwestern.
This is the best Penn State team heading to the Big House since
that 2009 team (the 2016 team definitely wasn't great in September), but this
team is flawed and the flaws are clear:
- The special teams are a nightmare. JR P Blake Gillikin went from All-American candidate to below-average punter. Last week, Gillikin dropped a snap that resulted in a safety while senior long snapper Kyle Vasey sent another snap soaring over his head for, yes, another safety. Freshman kicker Jake Pinegar went 3-for-3 against Iowa last week in a crucial win, but had been a disaster entering that game. Incredibly, the special teams succumbed to impact fake kicks against Michigan State, Indiana, and Iowa in three consecutive weeks. That's mind blowing. DeAndre Thompkins and KJ Hamler have each offered some big plays in the return game; that's something.
- The veteran wide receivers all took a turn for the worse at the same time. Thompkins, Brandon Polk, and especially Juwan Johnson all lost their hands this year and it has stunted the offense. There's no way QB Trace McSorley will have confidence throwing them the ball this week. Instead, his three favorite targets as RS FR Hamler, FR WR Jahan Dotson, and FR TE Pat Freiermuth. It's great to have freshmen contribute; it's bad when the only contributors are freshmen.
- Speaking of McSorley, he's awesome…but he's also hurt. He injured his knee against Iowa in such a way that he cannot move laterally. McSorley without lateral movement is a super smart, OK-armed, undersized RS SR. That's fine. Problem is, Nittany needs McSorley to be All-American caliber. He is when he can run laterally and north-south (ask Ohio State). Instead, he'll be a sitting duck against Michigan.
- Nittany has gotten excellent production from its DEs (RS JR Shareef Miller has been good; SO Yetur Gross-Matos has been stellar), DBs, and Micah Parsons at LB. Cam Brown has also been solid at LB. Unfortunately, RS SR LB Koa Farmer and the DT rotation have disappointed, causing some problems in a front seven that has been gashed at times. RS JR DT Kevin Givens has largely disappointed this year while RS JR DT Robert Windsor has mixed spurts of effectiveness with disappearing acts. And Michigan will positively embarrass RS JR LB Jan Johnson (recently scholarshiped for some reason) whenever he's on the field. He's too slow to cover skill position players anywhere on the field.
Of course, it's not all bad news. What gives me hope?
- Nittany has struggled a lot more with true spread approaches than against power. Michigan is likely to operate primarily out of power sets. Michigan will also likely target receivers in one-on-one matchups with defensive backs, and Penn State RS SR CB Amani Oruwariye has enjoyed a superb year, save for slipping against Felton Davis last month.
- The Penn State offensive line has slowly morphed into the strength that it was expected to be entering the season, particularly the interior trio of LG RS JR Steven Gonzalez, RS SO C Michal Menet, and JR RG Connor McGovern. RS JR LT Ryan Bates has been solid while the rotation at RT with RS SR Chasz Wright and RS SO Will Fries has been adequate. Against Michigan's elite defensive front, an opponent likely needs an elite showing from its offensive line to have a real chance. Nittany has a line capable of delivering such a performance. JR RB Miles Sanders has been excellent (watch his touches against Michigan State), but every back needs at least a little bit of space. Perhaps the O-Line can provide that space on occasion.
- McSorley has won an awful lot of football games in his career, including a handful that nobody expected him to win. Given the losses to the Buckeyes and Spartans, winning in Ann Arbor is his only shot at a crowning achievement in his final season. Whatever intangible goodness is floating around out there gives him a shot, however slight.
- If James Franklin turtles in big games, Jim Harbaugh goes full-on roly poly sometimes. If he tells Shea Patterson to beat Penn State throwing from the pocket instead of running around and utilizing his athleticism, Harbaugh could help keep things tighter than they might otherwise be.
- I probably undersold the impact of Oruwariye, RS JR CB John Reid, SO CB Tariq Castro-Fields, and RS JR S Garrett Taylor. As a group, they've been stellar while RS SR S Nick Scott has been solid. RS FR CB Donovan Johnson has looked OK at times and overmatched at others, a slightly worse version of Castro-Fields at this point.
- Gross-Matos and Miller both need to have monster games setting the edge and getting into Patterson's face. They're capable of doing that. If they can keep Karan Higdon and Co. inside the tackles and make the game about Parson's ability to tackle Higdon in confided spaces, we could have a real contest on our hands. I have a feeling RS SO DE Shaka Toney will look like Leonard Floyd tomorrow (that is, completely dwarfed and neutralized by opposing OTs), but perhaps RS SO DE Shane Simmons can offer a bit of help now a few weeks removed from his return from injury.
In the end, it's overwhelmingly likely that Michigan has
their way methodically moving the ball tomorrow. I fully expect a couple of big
plays on special teams – perhaps a successful fake from Michigan, a blocked
kick by the Wolverines, a missed/shanked kick by Penn State, a big return from
Peoples-Jones – to give Michigan a boost and early enough in the game that they
serve to change the tide.
If McSorley was healthy, I'd have some more hopefulness that
his legs could introduce enough variance into the game so as to give Nittany a
real shot to compete. Without his legs, though, McSorley is a sitting duck with
subpar or inexperienced receivers. We'll likely see RS JR QB Tommy Stevens for
a few snaps in the first half before he relieves McSorley fully at some point
in the second half after McSorley takes too much of a beating standing in the
pocket.
One more prediction: Quinn Nordin will definitely rejoice
making an easy kick with an over-the-top celebration. I still wish he made it
to Penn State.
The game won't be all that exciting for Michigan fans as the
Wolverines impose their will early and often with viewers quickly realizing
that Nittany lacks the big-play offense that made the team so dangerous in
2016-17.
Michigan 31, Penn State 10
(Rob barfs at some point during the game)
