However, there's no sugarcoating that the Chicago offense continued to look dreadful in the game. A stop unit that figured to be below average anyway in 2023 couldn't afford the barrage of injuries that gutted the secondary in September, and the results have been predictable: the poor defensive line combined with scrubs on the back end has meant easy pickings for opposing offenses.
As fun as Thursday's win was, the Bears appear destined for another long season with only a few wins ahead. The hope here remains that Justin Fields continues to improve -- much as he has done each year thus far -- while key young players like RT Darnell Wright, LT Braxton Jones, WR Tyler Scott, CB Tyrique Stevenson, CB Terrell Smith, DT Gervon Dexter, and DT Zacch Pickens show that they can be reliable contributors in 2024 and beyond.
At this unique moment in time, the Bears find themselves projected to hold both the #1 and #2 overall picks in next year's draft thanks to their March deal with Carolina. While it seems extremely unlikely that the Bears end the season with those top two picks and even less likely that the Bears end up with those two picks in a year where Fields more fully establishes himself as The One, it could happen. I'm going to pretend that the Bears live in that world because hey, it's fun!
So here's a look at how the 2024 offseason could go with an eye on winning in a meaningful way in 2024.
Internal Decisions
The Bears have a few big salary cap decisions looming. The most notable decisions, along with my choice on each player, are as follows:
- S Eddie Jackson: $18.14M cap hit, $5.58M dead cap
- Decision: CUT
- C Cody Whitehair: $13.25M cap hit, $4.104M dead cap
- Decision: KEEP through draft, then CUT if replaced
- DE DeMarcus Walker: $8.667M cap hit, $4.134M dead cap
- Decision: KEEP
- RB Travis Homer: $2.125M cap hit, $0.225M dead cap
- Decision: CUT
The Bears currently have $1.78M in dead money for 2024, so adding in the cuts of Jackson, Whitehair, and Homer, that number grows to $11.689M.
With an adjusted cap of $251.476M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $119.31M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $116.477M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.
Free Agency
The Bears find themselves with a few glaring holes entering 2024. Thankfully, they line up quite well with the strength of the free agent class.
The most obvious: DE. The defense doesn't work when it's unable to get pressure by the defensive linemen and, well, the 2022 and 2023 defenses have been entirely unable to get pressure with four. So, let's fix that. Here's my preference list for 2024:
- Josh Allen (Jacksonville)
- Chase Young (Washington)
- Montez Sweat (Washington)
- Brian Burns (Carolina)
- Rashan Gary (Green Bay)
- Danielle Hunter (Minnesota)
- Josh Uche (New England)
The franchise tag figures to take a bite out of that market, but some unexpected players reach free agency every year. We'll see who it is in 2024. The Bears will need to be at the top of the list for all free agents.
After DE, the Bears need to find a new starting S opposite Jaquan Brisker. Eddie Jackson simply can't stay on the field. While he could be brought back on a dramatically reduced contract, it seems more likely that the Poles regime elects to go another way. Again, thankfully, free agency offers great options on the strength of the 2nd round of the 2020 draft:
- Antoine Winfield Jr. (Tampa Bay)
- Kyle Dugger (New England)
- Jeremy Chinn (Carolina)
- Xavier McKinney (New York Giants)
Finally, we get to the gaping hole in the wide receiver room left by Chase Claypool's, well, whatever that was. The Bears likely don't need to find another star in free agency thanks to the overwhelming presence of D.J. Moore and the relative lack of stars in free agency. Still, they probably need to find another #2/3 before reaching draft day. The options:
- Darnell Mooney (Chicago)
- Michael Pittman (Indianapolis)
- Marquise Brown (Arizona)
- Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville)
- Curtis Samuel (Washington)
- Tee Higgins (Cincinnati)
- Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati)
I assume that Allen, Sweat, Burns, Gary and Pittman all get slapped with the franchise tag. So, instead, let's say that the Bears ink the following deals:
- DE Chase Young: 5 years, $115M, $52M guaranteed
- S Antoine Winfield Jr.: 4 years, $62M, $33M guaranteed
- WR Darnell Mooney: 4 years, $54M, 27M guaranteed
- DT Andrew Billings: 3 years, $18M, $8M guaranteed
If Jaylon Johnson enjoys a nice recovery in his return from injury later this year, he could find his way back onto this chart. The longer he stays out, however, the more likely it is that the front office rolls with Tyrique Stevenson and Terrell Smith outside with Kyler Gordon in the slot.
There would surely be other free agent additions beyond these big three, but we're likely talking about depth options at CB, S, and RB.
Draft
The main purpose for this article. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool.
Here. We. Go.
Bears TRADE #1 to Las Vegas for #3, #42, #73, a 2025 1st, and a 2025 2nd
This year's whooper of a deal. This is the Caleb Williams effect. Numerous teams figure to attempt to overwhelm Poles in order to get their hands on Williams, but Las Vegas has a huge leg up here in that their pick enables the Bears to draft their top two non-QBs.
#2: Penn State LT Olu Fashanu
LT is not the Bears' biggest need. Far from it. If this pick was based on need, it would be Florida State DE Jared Verse or Alabama DE Dallas Turner. But that's not what you do at #2. If there's a star LT to pair with your young star QB for the next decade, take him!
#3: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
See above. MHJ is probably the top WR prospect since the A.J. Green/Julio Jones draft and arguably since Calvin Johnson. He is a true generational talent. Pairing Harrison with Moore gives Fields a pair of ace receivers to target while throwing behind a line with true bookend tackles. Even the thought is wild.
Bears Trade #34 to New England for #38 and #100
There are still plenty of strong targets here, and the #100 pick is a possible starter.
#38: UCLA DE Laiatu Latu
This doubles as filling a massive need, but the value is solid. Latu can play right away.
#42: Georgia C Sedrick Van Pran
He's going to show up in just about every mock I do, except for those when he comes off the board in the 1st round, in which case we're looking at you, West Virginia's Zach Frazier. But hopefully Van Pran becomes the key new pivot for Chicago.
#65: Clemson DT Ruke Orhorhoro
I don't love Orhorhoro -- certainly not like I loved Bryan Bresee last year -- but a huge, twitchy Clemson DL here just fits.
#73: Washington WR Jalen McMillan
McMillan doesn't look like he has star potential, but stepping into what would be an absurdly talented WR room, that's OK. He can be solid and continue to develop.
#98: Penn State DE Adisa Isaac
Isaac doesn't appear to have a star future, but he sure is long and twitchy.
#100: Iowa TE Luke Lachey
When Iowa TEs come available, just take them.
#128: North Carolina LB Cedric Gray
I didn't really want to take a linebacker, but Gray was far too much value here. Plus, Jack Sanborn has disappointed thus far in 2023, so a little extra pressure doesn't hurt.
Bears Trade #129 to Carolina for #150 and #164
I didn't have a clear pick, so I grabbed the extra.
#150: Iowa State T.J. Tampa
6'1", 200 lbs. with lots of athleticism.
#164: Illinois DT Keith Randolph Jr.
Obviously I'd much prefer to grab Jer'Zhan Newton, but that cost will likely prove prohibitive. Not so for Randolph.
Final Roster
New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:
QB (3): Fields, Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): Herbert, Johnson, FREE AGENT, Blasingame
TE (4): Kmet, Tonyan, Lachey, FREE AGENT
WR (6): Moore, Harrison, Mooney, McMillan, Scott, Jones
OT (4): Fashanu, Wright, Jones, Borom
OG (3): Jenkins, Davis, Carter
C (1): Van Pran
DE (5): Young, Walker, Latu, Isaac, Robinson
DT (5): Billings, Dexter, Pickens, Orhorhoro, Randolph
ILB (1): Edmunds
OLB (4): Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell, Gray
CB (5): Stevenson, Smith, Gordon, Tampa, FREE AGENT
S (5): Brisker, Winfield, Hicks, Jones, FREE AGENT
ST (3): FREE AGENT, Gill, Scales
The offense actually keeps eight starters the same, but the three additions -- Fashanu, Harrison, and Van Pran -- are all top-50 picks of the impact variety. The defense doesn't add a Day One starter via the draft -- something that I'd otherwise dub unacceptable -- but the additions of Young and Winfield are massively important and the depth added by four defensive line draftees continues the infusion of talent so badly needed for the Bears.
The biggest decision facing the Bears? Whether Braxton Jones is a true franchise LT in the making or not. If he isn't, Fashanu has to be the pick. But if he is, it opens up the team to take Jared Verse instead, pairing him with Young to form a fierce pass rushing tandem.
