Way back then, the Cubs had just wrapped up a series win over the White Sox that sent them into the final week of the season with a NL Central Division lead of 2 1/2 games with only a week to go. As a result of their lead and the fall-back plan of the Wild Card Game, the Cubs had a 96.1 percent chance to make it to to the Division Series according to Fangraphs.
The Bears had just completed a furious comeback in the Arizona desert to beat the Cardinals 16-14 at the end of a short week that featured a 1,500-mile flight, propelling the team into first place in the NFC North. Impressive. More importantly, the Bears defense looked dominant in the three games to date as the offense struggled to keep pace.
The Nittany Lions had just dropped 63 points for the second straight week, blasting Illinois on the road to move to 5-0 and a #9 ranking in the AP poll in advance of a showdown with rival Ohio State. The offense was overwhelming, scoring 55.5 points per game through the first four contests. The defense had also settled down after a fourth quarter catastrophe versus Appalachian State to stifle the admittedly modest attacks of Pitt, Kent State, and Illinois.
Things were looking up for me.
My sports life was overflowing with expectations for the first time in...well, actually, maybe for the first time ever. The Canucks and Bulls have been good at the same time before, but (i) I don't care about them as much as my summer/fall teams, and (ii) three is more than two. Having the Cubs, Bears, and Nittany Lions all playing deeply meaningful October games hadn't happened since 2008. 2008 felt a bit different: the Bears' ceiling wasn't quite so high with Kyle Orton manning the helm. The Nits had a wonderful regular season, falling only in the early evening hours at Kinnick (as so often happens) while the Cubs emphatically imploded via a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers.
Still, I found myself full of hope just a few weeks ago.
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Ha. What a chump that guy was.
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Since that glorious week to wrap up September, the Bears enjoyed a laugher over the overwhelmed Bucs. Otherwise, the wheels fell off in explosive ways. The Cubs continued to play fine baseball while the Brewers slayed all challengers, forcing a one-game playoff that Milwaukee won, knocking the Cubs into the Wild Card Game the next night where the season ended at the hands of the Rockies. Over their last three losses, the Cubs surrendered just seven runs. Of course, they scored just one run in each game. One win over those three games would've earned a full-fledged lottery ticket into October's chaos. Instead, the team finally gets a long winter.
Following their dismantling of the Bucs, the Bears made their way to Miami and received an early Christmas present when it was revealed that Ryan Tannehill would miss the game, forcing Brock Osweiler into the lineup. As seven-point favorites with a suffocating defense and an emerging offense, the Bears looked like one of the top bets in the league. Instead, the defense wilted in the Miami heat, allowing Osweiler yet another career day in which he threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns. Despite making two trips inside the five-yard-line in regulation that yielded zero points thanks to a Jordan Howard fumble and an absurd Mitchell Trubisky interception thrown directly to Miami safety T.J. McDonald, the Bears poured in four second-half touchdowns to seemingly seal the game before stumbling again and yielding a trip to overtime. In overtime, Akiem Hicks saved the game by forcing a Kenyan Drake fumble as Drake headed in for the game-winning score. Despite the craziness of the game, Matt Nagy pulled in the reins on the following possession, dialing up five straight rushes to settle for a 53-yard field goal attempt that Cody Parkey pushed to the right. The Dolphins won on a walk-off field goal as time expired.
Despite all of the above, no amount of sports-induced misery from the Cubs and Bears compares to the heartbreak wrought by Penn State football.
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As has been well documented, Penn State football has been on an epic run for just over 24 months. After losing four home games in 2014 -- adding a blowout to Northwestern (29-6) to three rivalry losses (Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan State) -- en route to a 7-6 record, Nittany followed with a more discouraging year in 2015 despite a repeat 7-6 record thanks to another Northwestern loss and blowouts at the hands of Ohio State, Michigan State, and mediocre Temple. 2016 began in much the same way with a tough loss to rival Pittsburgh and a shellacking at the hands of Michigan, 49-10.
There were some signs of hope during that time, namely the taking of eventual National Champion Ohio State to double-overtime in 2014, but nothing fully prepared Nittany Lion fans for what followed: nine straight wins in 2016, including handing the Buckeyes their only regular season loss, a Big Ten title, a thrilling Rose Bowl (loss), an excellent 2017 whose only blemishes were excruciating losses to great teams on the road: at the Horseshoe (39-38) and Spartan Stadium (27-24). Penn State won ever other game handily until a solid if less spectacular win over Washington in the Fiesta Bowl.
Entering 2018, there was reason to believe that another special season was on top. The raucous start to the year described above only fueled that optimism. There was also reason for concern: in close-and-late situations, James Franklin and his staff routinely turtled, reducing the offensive playbook to a run-until-desperate shell of its usual self. Franklin also regularly passed on opportunities to make a game-winning play, instead punting and hoping that the opponent's offense would be unable to break his back.
It happened against USC in 2016: up 49-35 in the fourth quarter, Penn State ran three times, punted, and watched USC score a touchdown. Nittany then ran, called a screen, ran again, and punted. After forcing a Trojans punt, Nittany ran on five straight plays before punting the ball back to USC. USC unsurprisingly tied the game with a minute and a half to play. 10 runs in 11 plays as the lead evaporated. The end result: USC 52, PSU 49.
It happened against Ohio State in 2017: near the end of the first half and facing fourth-and-4 at the OSU 36, Franklin ordered up...a punt? Then, midway through the fourth quarter with a 35-27 lead and facing first and goal at the Ohio State 7, Nittany called for three straight runs to set up a Tyler Davis field goal. After an Ohio State touchdown, Penn State ran three consecutive running plays before punting. When they got the ball back, they found themselves in an obvious passing situation with 1:45 to play. Three incompletions and a sack were all that was left. The end result: OSU 39, PSU 38.
2017 Michigan State was a different story: the teams were more or less evenly matched on a bizarre day in East Lansing that featured a three-hour rain delay in the middle of the game. The loss was devastating but understandable. MSU 27, PSU 24.
Sadly, it happened again against Ohio State in 2018. Near the end of the first half and facing fourth-and-1 at the OSU 49, Franklin ordered up...a punt? Stop me if you've heard this before. Then, up 26-21 halfway through the fourth quarter, Penn State took over and called four straight running plays. After a third down incompletion, Franklin inexplicably elected to punt from the Ohio State 37 despite a fourth-and-5 situation. The end result: OSU 27, PSU 26.
The truth here is painful: entering Saturday, Penn State had held the lead in the last five minutes of each of its prior four losses.
There's no way Franklin and his staff would turtle again in another tight-and-late situation...right?
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Michigan State entered the 2018 version of the MSU-PSU contest with an offense in tatters. Although the strong defense led by DT Raekwon Williams, the Panasiuk brothers (one DE, one DT), DE Kenney Willekes, MLB Joe Bachie, the Dowell brothers (one OLB, one S), S Khari Willis, and CB Justin Layne was largely healthy and ready for the contest in central Pennsylvania (save for CB Josiah Scott), the offense came in missing the following:
- WR Cody White
- WR Darrell Stewart
- RB L.J. Scott
- G Kevin Jarvis
- G David Beedle
- WR Jalen Nailor
In contrast, Penn State was fully healthy. Truly. Among the players expected to participate in the 2018 rotations, only DE Shane Simmons and WR Justin Shorter have struggled with injuries and Simmons returned on Saturday to play meaningful snaps. It's incredible for a team to be so healthy at the season's midpoint.
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So what in the world happened? As is the case with most losses in team sports, it was far from just one thing. In an effort to help human brains digest the information to follow, I'll break the answers into five groups: bad plays, questionable officiating, poor defensive snap allocations, horrendous luck, and, the most important, a repeated lack of aggressiveness in the face of extreme aggressiveness from Mark Dantonio. Here goes:
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Bad Plays
Unsurprisingly in a game with more than 150 plays, Penn State had their fair share of bad ones. A few that stick out:
- With 12:16 left in Q2 and facing third-and-5 from a clean pocket, QB Trace McSorley missed a wide open TE Pat Freiermuth at the sticks, sailing the ball and forcing a punt.
- In the middle of the third quarter, Penn State kicker Jake Pinegar attempts to poke a 37-yard field goal. The ugly kick hits the right upright and narrowly misses.
- On Penn State's go-ahead field goal drive in the fourth quarter, McSorley extended a play and had a wide open DeAndre Thompkins in the end zone about 25 yards away. McSorley sailed the throw deep and to Thompkins's outside shoulder.
- As Nittany attempted to run out the clock, McSorley inexplicably ran out of bounds, preserving Sparty's final timeout and enabling them to work the middle of the field with far greater confidence on the game-winning drive.
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Questionable Officiating
The zebras most certainly didn't determine the outcome of the game on Saturday. Nittany had numerous opportunities to pound the nail into the Sparty coffin, failing to do so each time. However, the officials certainly didn't help the cause.
Michigan State was called for a block in the back on a punt return at the 2:28 mark of Q1. I thought that the referee should've had a conversation with the offending player instead of throwing the flag as the block occurred about 10 yards from the ball carrier as he was tackled. Oh well.
That's the list of Sparty flags from scrimmage. They were also whistled for two false starts.
In contrast, the flags on Nittany were plentiful. A summary with particularly iffy calls underlined:
- At the 6:40 mark of Q1, Nittany corner John Reid was flagged for a block in the back on a punt return. It looked to me as though Reid used his right hand to hit the Spartan gunner in the front of his shoulder, spinning him to the ground. Nevertheless, it was the kind of play that generally looks like a block in the back.
- On the same play, Nittany linebacker Jesse Luketa was called for holding at the line of scrimmage. No replay was available.
- On the final play of the first quarter, Michigan State ran a halfback pass where Connor Heyward beautifully floated a ball to Cam Chambers just shy of the end zone. Chambers caught the ball. However, Nittany corner Tariq Castro-Fields was called for holding on the play. The angle from the end zone shows that Chambers grabbed hold of Castro-Fields in his chest and pushed the corner away with a fully-extended arm just before the ball arrived. The official who called the hold was in the end zone.
- At the 13:28 mark of Q2, Nittany completed an impressive goal line stand, stuffing QB Brian Lewerke on a sneak after stopping La'Darius Jefferson twice (more on that below). Sparty C Matt Allen beat Nittany NT C.J. Thorpe on the play, putting Thorpe on his butt. After the play was over but when both players were still on the ground, Allen stuck his fingers through Thorpe's facemask and into his eyes. As the referee ran in to break up the players, Thorpe retaliated and landed a punch on Allen's face. Flagging the retaliation always happens and Thorpe clearly deserved the penalty. It's tougher to stomach when the official also sees the precipitating infraction and only flags one.
- Penn State G Connor McGovern was flagged for holding at the 12:57 mark of Q2. It was correct.
- Penn State was also called for lining up offside twice and for one false start (both in Q2).
- At the 4:12 mark in Q2, Nittany OLB Cam Brown was called for holding on a third-and-10 play where Lewerke rolled toward the sideline and threw the ball away. On the play, Brown and Sparty RB Weston Bridges were engaged with each other as Lewerke rolled: Brown's hands were wrapped around Bridges while Bridges's hands were wrapped around Brown. Bridges had the back of Brown's jersey in his hands when the flag was thrown.
- At the 7:00 mark of Q3, Nittany DT Robert Windsor was called for holding Allen. While Windsor did grab Allen's jersey as he ran by the center, color commentator James Laurinitis commented that the infraction flagged was for far less grabbing than occurs on every snap of every game. The call took away a third down stop in MSU territory. The Spartans instead tied the game two plays later. (editor's note: this was the toughest call of the game as it was the least egregious hold I've seen called in quite a while)
- At the 0:26 mark of Q3, Nittany RT Will Fries was called for holding on a McSorley rollout.
- On the same play, G Steven Gonzalez was also called for holding.
In the end, the officials flagged Nittany for nine post-snap penalties. Sparty was flagged once. Entering the game, Nittany had been flagged 30 times in five games whereas Sparty had been flagged 36 times in five games.
That's not all. The flags that are thrown impacted the game in a major way. So did a flag that wasn't thrown: on the screen pass opening MSU's game-winning drive, Nittany captain S Nick Scott beat Sparty redshirt freshman WR C.J. Hayes. Rather than let Scott bust up the MSU linemen or tackle Heyward, Hayes shoved Scott down from behind as Heyward was about three yards away. Heyward picked up 11 on the play. If (i) Scott busts up the play and keeps the clock moving, or (ii) the officials flag the block, who knows what happens on that final drive?
Again, the officials didn't determine the outcome of the game. Penn State did that in so many ways. At the same time, the zebras did not help matters by putting their thumbs on the scales.
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Poor Defensive Snap Allocations
We'll get to Franklin's game-losing conservatism in a bit. For now, the snap allocations need a look.
In particular, the coaches played redshirt junior DT Kevin Givens 76 defensive snaps. That's unacceptable. The astronomical count was the result of (i) Fred Hansard's injury, (ii) Antonio Shelton's first-half suspension thanks to a targeting call against Ohio State, and (iii) Thorpe's benching following his unsportsmanlike foul discussed above. Still, the coaches should have (i) given Shelton more second half snaps, and (ii) used the defensive end depth to shift Yetor Gross-Matos inside for a few more plays, keeping Givens a bit fresher. Instead, Givens played all of those defensive snaps, subbed for Thorpe on three special teams units, and found himself completely gassed at game's end when Nittany desperately needed an interior push to make Lewerke uncomfortable.
Scott and Amani Oruwariye both played 80+ snaps, but I'm less worried about leaner athletes carrying such a load. Brown and S Garrett Taylor both at 78 was also high given the presence of Micah Parsons (28) and Castro-Fields (34), but Brown is also on the leaner side for a linebacker and Taylor is a safety. Those were acceptable.
Horrendous Luck
Lady luck wasn't just unkind to the Nittany Lions on Saturday: she was downright cruel. This entire section would be comical if the Nittany season wasn't crushed as a result. Instead, it's hard to write.
Let's start with one note: not all of the lucky plays in the game went against Penn State. In particular, the Lions enjoyed two lucky outcomes:
- Taylor's third quarter interception was the result of a pass from Lewerke to Chambers (slightly deflected by Koa Farmer) that hit Chambers's club and bounced to Taylor. That ricochet doesn't normally happen (obviously).
- At the 2:24 mark of Q3, Miles Sanders was ruled down but clearly fumbled and was injured on the play, giving the Spartans ample time to watch the replays in order to determine whether they should challenge. Inexplicably, Dantonio didn't talk with the refs or use a timeout. Not luck exactly (more like a rare boneheaded move by the opposing coach) but Nittany was fortunate in that moment.
That's about it from where I sit.
Now for the bad luck. Let's start with the fumbles. There were four genuine fumbles in the game. Lewerke had another wobbly option pitch that was ruled a fumble on the field but was actually an incomplete forward pass. The pitch went out of bounds and only cost Sparty a yard, so this didn't impact the game at all.
The other four though?
- On Nittany's opening drive, the Lions drove well into Sparty territory when McSorley stepped up into the pocket to deliver a downfield pass. Just as he was about to throw, he was hit on the arm, fumbled, and Sparty recovered, quashing the drive. At the time of the fumble, McSorley was surrounded by players from both teams, rendering this something close to a 50/50 ball.
- On the second down play before Thorpe's third down penalty at the goal line, Jefferson fumbled into a big pile of humanity. After about 20 seconds, the ball was awarded back to the Spartans. Who knows who actually had it initially? Regardless, this was a true 50/50 fumble that sent MSU's way.
- At the 4:02 mark of Q2, Sparty punt returner Laress Nelson muffed a punt as Nittany gunners arrived. Instead of bouncing away from him, the ball settled near Nelson's feet where he scooped it up. Muffed punts don't usually end so cleanly.
- At the 0:16 mark of Q3, RB Bridges fumbled on an interior run. The ball squirted back behind him where he dove on it. That's about as safe of fumbles on running plays get, yet it was nevertheless another ball on the turf.
Four fumbles, four recoveries for the Spartans. Ouch.
As tough as that fumble luck proved to be, it paled in comparison to the number of missed opportunities for interceptions. S&P+ credited PSU with an absurd 17 passes defended. In reviewing the video, five of Lewerke's unintercepted passes could've or even should've been picked off. Starting with the least likely pick to the easiest to intercept:
- At the 0:37 mark of Q2, Oruwariye jumped an out route to WR Felton Davis where Lewerke left the ball to the field side. Oruwariye got both hands on the ball but was laid out, rendering an actual catch difficult.
- On a third-and-10 play at 8:24 of Q4, Oruwariye again got a great jump on an out to Davis. He again laid out with the ball passing between his hands, deflected, prior to finding its way to the space between Davis's legs...where he trapped the ball and grabbed it with his hands just before he fell out of bounds for a first down. Stomach punch.
- At the 6:59 mark of Q2, Reid jumped a curl to Brandon Sowards. Lewerke's pass went into Reid's gut, but he couldn't hang on as Sowards made contact. It may have been a pick-six had Reid made the catch.
- At the 3:26 mark of Q4, Lewerke made arguably his worst throw of the game, leaving a seam pass at his own 40 well behind his target and instead throwing it directly to Taylor. Distressingly, the ball bounced off of Taylor's hands and fell incomplete.
- At the 0:58 mark of Q4, Oruwariye yet again jumped a curl to Davis. Lewerke put the ball in Oruwariye's gut but he couldn't hang on as Davis made contact. Obviously it would've sealed the game.
Combining the fumbles and passes defensed, S&P+ estimates that Nittany should've had 5.48 takeaways instead of one.
There are a handful of other brutally unlucky plays that don't fit neatly into a category, so here they are:
- Late in the fourth quarter, a strange play occurred on which Nittany DE Shaka Toney got around the edge and hit Lewerke as he threw. Lewerke released the ball around the 27 and it flew out of bounds around the 25, clearly backward by more than a yard, resulting in a fumble being ruled on the field. However, upon review, it was determined that Lewerke's arm was coming forward when Toney hit it. As a result, even though the ball itself went backward after contact, it was an incomplete pass. Based on the way the referees saw the play, that is the correct interpretation of the rules (I was in no position to appreciate this on Saturday night). However, having watched the play half a dozen times, I'm floored that the call was overturned. I encourage you go to the 142:52 of BTN replay of the game and see if Lewerke's arm is conclusively coming forward before Toney hits it. Having watched it on slow-motion just like the refs do, it looks like Toney hits Lewerke at the back of his windup, causing the ball to move in Lewerke's hand as his arm begins to move forward. At that point, it doesn't matter that Lewerke's arm moved forward in the future: all he did was propel a fumble. This call was crushing for Nittany, costing 10 yards and as many as 20 seconds. Again, I understand that, had the arm been moving forward, it would've been an incomplete pass despite the ball going backward (which is still weird). I just didn't see Lewerke's arm conclusively moving forward before contact from Toney, movement that is required under the rule.
- Facing a fourth-and-4 from MSU's 29 with 8:26 left in Q3, McSorley dropped back to see a chasm of running space in front of him. As he moved to scramble for the first down (and then some), his foot slipped and he fell to the ground. It was Sparty's only sack of the game.
- At the 10:00 mark of Q4 and facing second-and-goal from the MSU 5, Sanders took an inside handoff and saw plenty of green to get into the end zone...before he too slipped and fell at the 2. He would've needed to get through Willis to score, but with Willis between the 1 and the 2, Sanders almost certainly would've at least made the 1, likely leading to a much better chance at a touchdown than the ill-advised fade to Juwan Johnson that followed.
- On Michigan State's brilliant fake punt in the first half, Nittany's sole defender in the middle of the field, disappointing former five-star DB Lamont Wade, read the play reasonably well...before running into the official en route to Heyward, helping spring the back for a big gain. Heyward likely had the first down anyway, but the unfortunate collision likely yielded an extra 15-20 yards.
- On MSU's final drive, Davis and Nelson were injured on consecutive plays. Both injuries served as extra timeouts for the Spartans, though the clock wasn't running after the play on which Davis was shaken up. Davis missed one snap before returning. Nelson's injury saved Sparty's final timeout (which they didn't use). Nelson missed two snaps before returning. Both players appeared to be genuinely shaken up on their respective plays.
- One final unfortunate moment with regard to the clock. Nittany was the "beneficiary" of an unfriendly home clock operator on their penultimate play. When KJ Hamler streaked over the middle, leaped, caught McSorley's pass, and hit the deck, there were eight seconds on the clock. The whistle blew as the clock slipped from eight to seven while Nittany immediately called timeout. Incredibly, the operator ran the clock down to six. Had Nittany had seven seconds and a timeout, they were much more likely to try a 10-15 yard pass on the subsequent play, setting up a much more plausible Hail Mary attempt than the one they were stuck with in the end. They should've tried this anyway, but I suspect that the missing second played a role.
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This section makes my stomach turn. I don't want to write/think/feel this over and over again as has become the norm in recent years.
This game was the perfect encapsulation of Dantonio's approach versus that of Franklin. Dantonio very clearly emptied his quiver of impact plays, throwing everything he could at the Lions in an effort to stave off a 3-3 record heading back home to face the vaunted Wolverines. A fake punt. A halfback pass. A fake field goal. Dantonio was hyper-aggressive. Dantonio knew that Sparty was the underdog, so he coached like it.
There were many impacts of this aggressiveness. First and foremost, he stole a possession with the fake punt, one that ultimately lead to Sparty's only score of the opening half. It's also possible that this aggressiveness put Nittany somewhat on their heels, helping fuel a handful of third down conversions where MSU converted by only a yard or so. This helped yield a massive advantage in snaps (89 to 64). It's also possible that Spartans LT Cole Chewins had just enough juice to dive and nip Taylor's heels on his interception return, preventing what could have been a commanding two-touchdown Nittany lead. Who knows?
In painful contrast, Franklin and offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne turtled, as they have on the occasions mentioned above. The ultra-conservative play calling ensured that Sparty would have another chance to tie or win the game at the end. Dantonio explicitly stated as much in his postgame presser, confirming that he was overwhelmingly confident that Penn State would sit on the ball. Penn State's offensive line is very good, but so is MSU's defensive line. Running in the interior is tough sledding. One well-placed pass would've ended the game. Instead, expected conservatism has killed the season for another hyper-efficient Nittany squad.
Did going for it on fourth-and-3 at the MSU 47 with 8:20 left in Q2 even cross Franklin's mind? Did he think about going for it on fourth-and-goal from the 2 in the fourth quarter? Did Franklin even remember about the ability to use Tommy Stevens in different formations to give the Spartans a different look? I doubt it. (To his credit, Franklin owned this by claiming that the extent of his patience with the run game was a mistake and likely took away opportunities for chunk plays.)
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Ranking the issues above, I'd say that they impacted the game in the following order from most impactful to least:
- Horrendous Luck
- A Repeated Lack of Aggressiveness in the Face of Extreme Aggressiveness from Dantonio
- Bad Plays
- Questionable Officiating
- Poor Defensive Snap Allocations
Closing Thoughts
The Michigan State game wasn't a total loss. Gross-Matos was superb, making a few TFLs of his own and clearing the way for Windsor's late sack by fighting through a double team. Sanders played his best game in blue and white. Taylor emerged. DE Shareef Miller and Brown both acquitted themselves well.
Michigan State didn't just win because of what Nittany did or didn't do. They also got superb production from their excellent defensive line, Lewerke made some plays, and Davis proved to be a superhero yet again.
Saturday's loss is far and away the worst since the Beat Down at Big House in September 2016. Nittany's losses since then (2016 USC, 2017 OSU, 2017 MSU, and 2018 OSU) all came on the road, save for OSU, and all came against excellent teams. 2018 Sparty is not an excellent team, at least not at this point in the season. They're a mess of a team with an injury report that is basically a "who's who" of their roster. They have a QB, a WR, a great defensive line, a solid back seven, and an elite coach. On pure talent, Nittany had a massive advantage, hence the -14.5 spread.
Instead of making that count, Nittany did the worst thing possible: they failed to learn from their mistakes. JFF went conservative and lost yet again, ending the possibility of achieving the program's top goals yet again. The Big Ten is fully out of reach. The CFP dream is dead. A NY6 game is on life support and now requires wins over Iowa, @ Michigan, and Wisconsin.
It didn't have to be this way.
JFF deserves a tremendous amount of credit for what he has done with the PSU program. He inherited a program still licking its wounds from crippling NCAA sanctions -- despite the excellent efforts of Bill O'Brien on Saturdays in sustaining the program through its self-inflicted darkest days -- and a cupboard that was comically bare. The 2010 class was excellent, ranked 13th nationally, but half of the impact players jumped ship when the sanctions came down instead of forming the veteran core of the 2014 and 2015 squads. Paterno's final recruiting class of 2011 ranked 31st. Of the 2012 recruiting class, which ranked 47th nationally, no four-star recruit made it through his career at PSU: WR Geno Lewis transferred to Oklahoma, DT Jamil Pollard never made it to campus, and DE Brent Wilkerson converted to TE and then was kicked off of the team for assaulting an acquaintance, then registered as a sex offender. Yikes. The 2013 class ranked 33rd. The 2014 fusion class between O'Brien and Franklin ranked 24th, but it did include a slew of key contributors to the successful PSU teams to follow.
The fully-Franklin classes have all been superb: 14th in 2015, 20th in 2016, 15th in 2017, and 6th in 2018. The 2019 class currently ranks 13th and will likely end up somewhere in the mid-to-late-teens when it wraps up, but even this is misleading: the class will be a bit smaller, so ranking so highly without quantity means that the quality of the prospects is fantastic.
Recruiting is good but it's far from the be-all-and-end-all in the college football world. Unlike with Ron Zook, Brady Hoke, and the like, recruiting success has been converted to wins for Franklin. JFF meandered through a couple of mediocre years while he got his players and his system in place, then he exploded onto the national scene in October 2016. Since then, Nittany has either won or come extraordinarily close to winning every game. Five losses by 12 total points, all of them in the last 2:03, and three of them in the final 20 seconds. That's quite the impressive 29-game stretch.
He has generally acquitted himself well against top competition from 2016 onward: after getting obliterated by 2016 Michigan in a game where Nittany lacked scholarship linebackers, they beat 2016 OSU, 2016 Wisconsin, and 2017 Washington, and lost narrowly to 2016 USC, 2017 OSU, 2017 MSU, and OSU 2018. There's one gnarly loss in there now: 2018 MSU. Outside of this Saturday, there are also exclusively wins against good-but-not-great teams like 2016 Minnesota, 2016 Iowa, 2017 Iowa (@ Kinnick @ night), 2017 Northwestern, 2017 Michigan, and 2018 Appalachian State. If we go back the beginning of 2016 before the meltdown at Michigan in 2016, the win over 2016 Temple looks awfully nice, too, while the loss at Pitt looks fine considering Pitt's subsequent win @ Clemson, the only blemish for the Tigers in the championship season.
Franklin has done a great job establishing Penn State as a contending program annually. That should never be taken for granted. However, in order to take the next step, he's going to have to change his approach in the biggest games. Aggressiveness will be required to mitigate the impact of bad luck against the best teams. Franklin should start doing that now so as to avoid future losses in the mold of Saturday's crushing setback.
