This is purely an exercise in using the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, both because I'm interest in this exercise and because I'm still reeling from the con job that the Packers pulled on the Saints last night.
The Bears' best fit tonight is a deal with Carolina, pure and simple. Carolina holds their own 2nd round pick (#55) and two 3rd round picks (#85 and #88); naturally, a team with multiple 3rd rounders is likely the best best to be willing to move one. The value of #39 is 510 points. #55 is valued at 350 while #85 is 165 and #88 is 150. Accordingly, #39 for #55 and #85 would return 515 points while #55 and #88 would return 500 points. Either deal would be wonderful for the Bears and a huge win on the Chase Stuart chart (15.4 outgoing; either 20.4 or 20.1 incoming). The Bears best scenario when considering a deal with Carolina is that UTEP G Will Hernandez, Colorado CB Isaiah Oliver, Iowa CB Josh Jackson, or Alabama S Ronnie Harrison remains on the board when the Bears pick at #39. That might be an uphill battle with Cleveland picking at #33 and #35, Indianapolis picking at #36 and #37, and Tampa Bay picking at #38. All three teams have desperate needs in their secondary. Then again, a mini-run on defensive backs could kick up the sense of urgency that a team like Carolina feels to make a move to address their defensive backfield and/or could provide the value needed if Hernandez slips.
The next most likely scenario in my mind centers around the Cincinnati Bengals and their bevy of mid-round picks. The Bengals hold their own pick in the 2nd round (#46), their regular 3rd rounder (#77), a compensatory 3rd rounder (#100), their 4th rounder (#112), and three 5th rounders (#151, #158, #170). The Bears' best bet with Cincinnati is that they fall in love with South Dakota State TE Dallas Goedert and fear that the Dolphins or Patriots do too. In that case, the Bears could send #39 to Cincinnati for #46 (440, 13.9) and #112 (70, 5.9), a perfect match on the Jimmy Johnson chart that would give the Bears a 28% premium on the Stuart chart.
I think my favorite possibility, though something of a complicated deal, involves Denver. The thinking goes like this: Denver passed on their pick of non-Mayfield, non-Darnold quarterbacks last night at #5. It's probably just because Bradley Chubb was such incredible value. But what if they really believe in Case Keenum or Paxton Lynch as the guy? In that case, this may be a one-year turnaround in their minds. Could they get jealous of Cleveland and Indianapolis making two picks at the top of the 2nd round and want to get in on the fun? If so, I could see a deal where the Bears send #39 to Denver for #71 (235, 9.8), #99 (104, 6.9), #104 (86, 6.5) and next year's 3rd round pick. That's a big transaction. Pace would be trading a shot at more firepower for a shot at substantially more depth. Using the last pick of the 3rd round (112, 7.1) as the 2019 compensation, the Bears would receive 537 points for 510, using no discounting. However, that's also 30.3 points on the Stuart chart, nearly double the 15.4 of pick #39. This is a philosophical test. From a plausibility standpoint, the Broncos have two 4th and two 5th rounders in 2018 and an extra 5th in 2019, so they have a stable of picks from which to deal.
It's not impossible for me to envision a scenario in which the Colts fall in love with multiple prospects at the top of the 2nd round and decide to use some of their later-draft ammunition to move up. The Colts pick at #49 (410, 9.8), so they could use that pick and #104 (86, 6.5) to swap with the Bears (510, 15.4 outgoing; 496, 16.3 incoming).
A final possible alignment is a follow-up deal between Ryan Pace and John Lynch. Lynch found his quarterback when he acquired Jimmy Garoppolo and he protected him with Mike McGlinchy at #9. He has some nice toys in Marquise Goodwin, Pierre Garcon, and even Trent Taylor. But the 49ers' starters are 6'0", 5'9", and 5'8". They need a big body for Garoppolo to target in the red zone. Enter Courtland Sutton. If he's available at #39, it'll be awfully tough for San Francisco to pass on him. The Niners have #59 (310, 11.6), #70 (240, 10), and #74 (220, 9.4 - the Bears' pick sent over in the Trubisky deal). #59 and #74 together come awfully close to making this deal work (510, 15.4 outgoing; 530, 19.4 incoming). With Allen Robinson, Kevin White (ha!), Trey Burton, and Adam Shaheen, the Bears are brimming with big-bodied targets. They can pass on Sutton and target a smaller receiver later. With Christian Kirk, Anthony Miller, James Washington, Dante Pettis (watch out for injuries!), DaeSean Hamilton, and even Cedrick Wilson or Braxton Berrios (who seems destined for New England) on the board, the Bears can be patient. For the 49ers, it's likely Sutton or a project. If they're thinking about winning in 2018 -- and having ended 2017 on a 6-1 run, why wouldn't they be? -- Garoppolo likely needs this additional target.
Pace already flipped the script last night, choosing a safer, scheme-diverse pick with his top pick instead of choosing the athletic specimen who needs to develop. Will he flip the 2nd round script too, staying put at #39 or even trading up? Or will it be more of the same (in a good way!), trading down to accumulate picks? Clarity will come this evening.
Friday, April 27, 2018
Looking at Pick #39
With Roquan Smith on board, the Bears' draft picture has cleared up in a major way...in that they won't draft another inside linebacker. Huh, that's it? Actually, I suppose that the forecast wasn't cleared up all that much.
The team's biggest positional needs remain at outside linebacker, wide receiver, cornerback, offensive line (the exact position is flexible), and defensive end. The team's biggest overall needs remain starting-caliber bodies and depth. It likely goes without saying that I'd love to see the Bears trade down from #39 tomorrow night. Unlike my pipe dream of Ryan Pace trading back in the 1st round, there's a reasonably good chance that he'll trade down tomorrow night: last year, Pace dropped from #36 to #45, picking up two 4th rounders in the process and improving his 7th into a 6th a year after picking up two 4th rounders for dropping from #41 to #49 before dropping again to #56, picking up an additional 4th rounder in the process. For a team that remains light on depth, such a move would be ideal, especially given the lack of a 3rd round pick tomorrow thanks to last year's Trubisky trade.
For this exercise, however, I'm going to presume that Pace stays put at #39.
Thankfully, the board has broken as well as could be hoped for the Bears.
The two positions of most glaring need are outside linebacker and wide receiver. Leonard Floyd, Aaron Lynch, and Sam Acho project as the rotation outside. Floyd is extremely injury prone, Lynch has 2.5 sacks total over the past two years, and Acho played each of the last three seasons on minimum salary deals. This need is glaring. Wide receiver isn't all that much prettier where the unplayable Josh Bellamy is 4th on the depth chart with two of the three wideouts ahead of him having missed nearly all of 2017 due to injury. Gulp. The defensive backfield needs another playable body or two while the offensive line need can be filled flexibly with a tackle prospect sliding in at guard or a center pushing Cody Whitehair back to guard.
There are some seriously strong options at #39, many of whom would have the opportunity to challenge for playing time on opening day. Here's my preference list for the pick:
1. OLB Arden Key (LSU)
----- This presumes that the front office is comfortable with Key. They're almost certainly not, so this is mostly a dream for another world.
2. OLB Harold Landry (Boston College)
----- Landry doesn't have Key's immense athleticism, but he's quick and insanely flexible. It might take him some time to grow into an every day role, but the Bears would be able to utilize his pass rushing skills immediately while he does that growing.
3. G Will Hernandez (UTEP)
----- I like him just as much as Quenton Nelson. So sue me.
4. C James Daniels (Iowa)
----- He should be a great fit for the interior of the line in Matt Nagy's offense given his impressive quickness.
5. OLB Rasheem Green (USC)
----- Crazy athletic, quite raw.
6. CB Holton Hill (Texas)
----- He's got that Tillman-esque build that I love.
7. WR Christian Kirk (Texas A&M)
----- He's grown on me over the past few months. He's got the quick-twitch movements to be a stud.
8. WR Courtland Sutton (SMU)
----- He's got the big frame and strong hands to be a plus receiver. He didn't have to play much in traffic or even regularly high-point the ball, but there's a dead homeless man's Alshon in there somewhere.
9. CB Isaiah Oliver (Colorado)
----- He might need a year or two to get outside, but he can help in the slot in the interim while developing his technique. The size/speed combo is there and it's tough to find.
10. G/C Austin Corbett (Nevada)
----- He's like Cody Whitehair 2.0.
11. CB Josh Jackson (Iowa)
----- I still don't know if he's fast enough to make it work.
11 is enough prospects for tonight. I do love Maurice Hurst and think that he'll make a fine pro. I just don't think he'll do it in a 3-4.
The team's biggest positional needs remain at outside linebacker, wide receiver, cornerback, offensive line (the exact position is flexible), and defensive end. The team's biggest overall needs remain starting-caliber bodies and depth. It likely goes without saying that I'd love to see the Bears trade down from #39 tomorrow night. Unlike my pipe dream of Ryan Pace trading back in the 1st round, there's a reasonably good chance that he'll trade down tomorrow night: last year, Pace dropped from #36 to #45, picking up two 4th rounders in the process and improving his 7th into a 6th a year after picking up two 4th rounders for dropping from #41 to #49 before dropping again to #56, picking up an additional 4th rounder in the process. For a team that remains light on depth, such a move would be ideal, especially given the lack of a 3rd round pick tomorrow thanks to last year's Trubisky trade.
For this exercise, however, I'm going to presume that Pace stays put at #39.
Thankfully, the board has broken as well as could be hoped for the Bears.
The two positions of most glaring need are outside linebacker and wide receiver. Leonard Floyd, Aaron Lynch, and Sam Acho project as the rotation outside. Floyd is extremely injury prone, Lynch has 2.5 sacks total over the past two years, and Acho played each of the last three seasons on minimum salary deals. This need is glaring. Wide receiver isn't all that much prettier where the unplayable Josh Bellamy is 4th on the depth chart with two of the three wideouts ahead of him having missed nearly all of 2017 due to injury. Gulp. The defensive backfield needs another playable body or two while the offensive line need can be filled flexibly with a tackle prospect sliding in at guard or a center pushing Cody Whitehair back to guard.
There are some seriously strong options at #39, many of whom would have the opportunity to challenge for playing time on opening day. Here's my preference list for the pick:
1. OLB Arden Key (LSU)
----- This presumes that the front office is comfortable with Key. They're almost certainly not, so this is mostly a dream for another world.
2. OLB Harold Landry (Boston College)
----- Landry doesn't have Key's immense athleticism, but he's quick and insanely flexible. It might take him some time to grow into an every day role, but the Bears would be able to utilize his pass rushing skills immediately while he does that growing.
3. G Will Hernandez (UTEP)
----- I like him just as much as Quenton Nelson. So sue me.
4. C James Daniels (Iowa)
----- He should be a great fit for the interior of the line in Matt Nagy's offense given his impressive quickness.
5. OLB Rasheem Green (USC)
----- Crazy athletic, quite raw.
6. CB Holton Hill (Texas)
----- He's got that Tillman-esque build that I love.
7. WR Christian Kirk (Texas A&M)
----- He's grown on me over the past few months. He's got the quick-twitch movements to be a stud.
8. WR Courtland Sutton (SMU)
----- He's got the big frame and strong hands to be a plus receiver. He didn't have to play much in traffic or even regularly high-point the ball, but there's a dead homeless man's Alshon in there somewhere.
9. CB Isaiah Oliver (Colorado)
----- He might need a year or two to get outside, but he can help in the slot in the interim while developing his technique. The size/speed combo is there and it's tough to find.
10. G/C Austin Corbett (Nevada)
----- He's like Cody Whitehair 2.0.
11. CB Josh Jackson (Iowa)
----- I still don't know if he's fast enough to make it work.
11 is enough prospects for tonight. I do love Maurice Hurst and think that he'll make a fine pro. I just don't think he'll do it in a 3-4.
Thursday, April 26, 2018
Predictions for the Top Eight Picks Tonight
There are seemingly endless mock drafts and draft thoughts floating around the internet right now, but with the first round just a few hours away, it's time to make a specific pick for what happens. So here goes:
1. Cleveland Browns: QB Sam Darnold (USC)
----- I don't buy all the hubbub about Baker Mayfield.
2. New York Giants: QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
----- They can't pick this high and not take a quarterback...right? With Eli getting another year or two, they can wait for Allen to develop to see if that helps him reach his ceiling.
3. New York Jets: QB Josh Rosen (UCLA)
----- Of all the teams to be afraid of a big personality, I think the Jets embrace Rosen just fine.
4. Cleveland Browns: RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
----- This pick has a great chance to be traded, but in the end, I think that the Browns make the play for the elite back to help carry the load while Darnold develops.
5. Denver Broncos: QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
----- Elway wouldn't immediately seem to be a natural fit for Mayfield, but I suspect that Mayfield's big personality will be a plus for Elway, not a deterrent.
6. Indianapolis Colts: DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
----- I'm sure that the Colts would prefer to trade this pick, but if Chubb or Barkley makes it to #6, they'll hold the pick and do a jig.
7. TRADE: San Francisco 49ers: G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)
----- The 2015 draft, where the first traded pick was #15, was an anomaly. Accordingly, I expect the trade action to pick up with a vengeance at this juncture. The 49ers give Indianapolis the fourth rounder they got in the Vance McDonald trade to jump the Bears and nab Nelson. Tampa Bay has huge needs in the secondary and at offensive tackle, so they can move down a few spots and still get a great player at a position of maximum need.
8. Chicago Bears: DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama)
----- I really, really, really want Pace to trade down. But I don't think he'll do it here (wait for round two on that front). Instead, he adds a dynamic piece to his secondary in the mold of Jalen Ramsey, a plus athlete who played all over the defensive backfield in college. Will I love this pick? Meh. After pouring huge assets into the cornerback position in free agency, with two average-or-better starting safeties in house, and with a gaggle of bottom-of-the-roster recent draftees to fill up the defensive back depth chart, this wouldn't be my pick. But in a passing league, it's tough to hate this kind of move.
Major takeaway: I don't think you'll see any trades among the top six picks because the teams drafting at the top all need quarterbacks and the teams drafting immediately behind them will have too hard of a time passing up on the draft's best talents sitting on the board. The real action starts with Tampa Bay, from where the draft could come completely unhinged. I hope so: that'd be fun!
1. Cleveland Browns: QB Sam Darnold (USC)
----- I don't buy all the hubbub about Baker Mayfield.
2. New York Giants: QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
----- They can't pick this high and not take a quarterback...right? With Eli getting another year or two, they can wait for Allen to develop to see if that helps him reach his ceiling.
3. New York Jets: QB Josh Rosen (UCLA)
----- Of all the teams to be afraid of a big personality, I think the Jets embrace Rosen just fine.
4. Cleveland Browns: RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
----- This pick has a great chance to be traded, but in the end, I think that the Browns make the play for the elite back to help carry the load while Darnold develops.
5. Denver Broncos: QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
----- Elway wouldn't immediately seem to be a natural fit for Mayfield, but I suspect that Mayfield's big personality will be a plus for Elway, not a deterrent.
6. Indianapolis Colts: DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
----- I'm sure that the Colts would prefer to trade this pick, but if Chubb or Barkley makes it to #6, they'll hold the pick and do a jig.
7. TRADE: San Francisco 49ers: G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)
----- The 2015 draft, where the first traded pick was #15, was an anomaly. Accordingly, I expect the trade action to pick up with a vengeance at this juncture. The 49ers give Indianapolis the fourth rounder they got in the Vance McDonald trade to jump the Bears and nab Nelson. Tampa Bay has huge needs in the secondary and at offensive tackle, so they can move down a few spots and still get a great player at a position of maximum need.
8. Chicago Bears: DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (Alabama)
----- I really, really, really want Pace to trade down. But I don't think he'll do it here (wait for round two on that front). Instead, he adds a dynamic piece to his secondary in the mold of Jalen Ramsey, a plus athlete who played all over the defensive backfield in college. Will I love this pick? Meh. After pouring huge assets into the cornerback position in free agency, with two average-or-better starting safeties in house, and with a gaggle of bottom-of-the-roster recent draftees to fill up the defensive back depth chart, this wouldn't be my pick. But in a passing league, it's tough to hate this kind of move.
Major takeaway: I don't think you'll see any trades among the top six picks because the teams drafting at the top all need quarterbacks and the teams drafting immediately behind them will have too hard of a time passing up on the draft's best talents sitting on the board. The real action starts with Tampa Bay, from where the draft could come completely unhinged. I hope so: that'd be fun!
Wednesday, April 25, 2018
A Dream Scenario for the Bears Tomorrow Night
Last week, I wrote a post covering the likely scenarios for the Bears with the 8th overall pick, ranking them from most preferable (like drafting Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs in the same 2003 class) to least (like drafting Cedric Benson 4th overall).
Today, I'm doing something that is more fun for me: putting together the dream scenario for tomorrow night. It's rare that the Bears have been in such an obvious trade down situation, but that's where they find themselves tomorrow. The seven picks prior to Chicago's figure to be littered with quarterbacks, which means two things: first, quarterback-needy squads later in the draft figure to get restless, and second, the teams immediately ahead of the Bears figure to nab elite talents -- like Penn State RB Saquon Barkley, North Carolina State DE/OLB Bradley Chubb, and Notre Dame G Quenton Nelson -- later than they might in a draft that featured fewer upper-echelon quarterbacks. With that in mind, here's my dream scenario:
1. Cleveland: QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
----- Allen is the top QB with the best chance of slipping in the draft. That's impossible if he goes #1.
2. New York Giants: QB Sam Darnold (USC)
----- Another QB.
3. New York Jets: QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
----- Teams drafting in the teens are now terrified that there won't be any quarterbacks left!
4. Cleveland: RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
----- I adore Saquon and I genuinely believe that he can be a catalyst that helps turn things around in Cleveland. Thus, I'm either prescient or a chump. It'll be tough for Cleveland to pass on Chubb if he's still here, but in this dream scenario, the Browns passing on Chubb is essential. If he goes to Cleveland, the dream scenarios become much less likely.
5. Denver: G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)
----- This is a key pick: if Denver loves Nelson, they're disinclined to trade back. I don't want the Bears drafting a pure guard this high. It's been generations since a college guard drafted this highly worked out.
6. Indianapolis: DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
----- Chubb is a top-3 talent in just about every draft. He's too good to pass up on here for Indy, preventing another trade.
7. Tampa Bay: LT Mike McGlinchy (Notre Dame)
----- This one requires three factors working together in unison. First, Tampa has to have given up on former Penn State stalwart LT Donovan Smith. Second, Tampa has to love McGlinchy. Third, Tampa requires solid intel that Chicago, San Francisco, or Oakland will pick McGlinchy is he's on the board. In that perfect storm scenario, Tampa has to stay at #7 to get their man in order to keep Jameis Winston upright.
The above scenario is almost too good to be true for the Bears, though it's hardly far-fetched. It results in only Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson remaining on the board at quarterback. At that point, the Bears need more than one of Miami, Buffalo, Arizona, Baltimore, New England, or New Orleans to be head over heels for one of these guys. Every team in the league knows that the Bears (at #8), 49ers (at #9), and Raiders (at #10) aren't taking a quarterback, so leverage will have to come in the form of external competition. Miami makes plenty of sense -- Ryan Tannehill has only been OK, is coming off of a knee injury, and was drafted three GMs ago. Buffalo and Arizona both had recent success with older QBs but are looking to reset at the position. New England and New Orleans both need succession plans, though ponying up for the move to #8 may prove too rich for those clubs.
Unfortunately for the Bears, potential trade partners will be able to use San Francisco and Oakland as leverage against Chicago. Fortunately for the Bears, if there are enough teams involved, that issue should be mitigated.
Buffalo is my top choice in a trade partner. At #12, Buffalo's pick is close enough to the Bears' to move down and plausibly maintain a shot at a top target. Accordingly, the Bears swing the following deal:
Chicago trades #8 overall (21.4 CS, 1400 JJ) to Buffalo for #12 overall (18.8, 1200) and #65 overall (8, 265)
The Bears only pick up a hair of extra value on the Johnson chart, but this is a big boost on the Chase Stuart chart, a 25% increase in value. That matters a lot for the Bears.
From here, I'd be plenty content with the Bears picking LB Tremaine Edmunds (intentionally listed as merely "LB" given his versatile ability to play inside on early downs before shifting into a pass rushing role on later downs, if necessary), ILB Roquan Smith, CB Denzel Ward, DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, OLB Marcus Davenport, or WR Calvin Ridley at #12. Each pick makes tons of sense.
But do you know what makes even more sense? Leveraging access to Washington NT Vita Vea and trading down again.
Washington (NFL edition) is likely to make a play for Vea at #13, so any team desiring to draft the behemoth lineman will need to get to #12. The Chargers, Dallas, Detroit, and Atlanta all make sense for such a move as teams in win-now mode that would love a plug-and-play talent like Vea in their interior. As a result, Ryan Pace really changes his draft by making the following deal:
Chicago trades #12 overall (18.8, 1200) to Atlanta for #26 overall (13.9, 700), #200 overall (1, 11.4), and Atlanta's 2019 1st round pick
Woah. Atlanta struck out in free agency when it came time to replace Dontari Poe, so they're looking for a big piece in the middle of their defense. I'm not certain as to where Atlanta thinks they are on the win curve -- they could be headed for a mini-rebuild -- but if they're pushing for the Super Bowl again, this kind of move makes some sense. For the Bears, it's a no-brainer as the chance to get another 1st round pick is simply too enticing, especially since NFL front offices apply such hefty discounts to future picks given the likelihood that some other general manager has the job by then.
I had considered a big deal with New England, but it doesn't really make sense. At some point, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are going to decide to move on from football. That time could well be in the next two years. Making a big move and mortgaging a future pick only makes sense if the Patriots are going to face a rebuild in the coming years. Here's hoping that the time is now and that the Bears are involved. Unfortunately, it won't be for Vea after the Pats sent their 2019 3rd rounder to Cleveland for Danny Shelton.
At #26, the Bears could hope to land Boston College OLB Harold Landry, Iowa CB Joshua Jackson, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Michigan DE Maurice Hurst, or Georgia G Isaiah Wynn, among others. Any of those picks would be fine.
In the end, the Bears would be dropping all the way from #8 to #26, a drop of 700 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart (equivalent of the #26 pick itself) and 7.5 points on the Chase Stuart chart (equivalent of the #70 overall pick). That's a lot of value. In exchange for their troubles, they'd pick up #65 overall, #200 overall, and a future 1st rounder. That's the kind of talent influx that the Bears need to fill out the roster: lots of bodies. That'd wrap things up for the team.
Unless...
What if the Jaguars decide that Lamar Jackson is an ideal successor at quarterback, especially in a run-first attack, who just needs another year or two to develop? What if New Orleans agrees? Well, then...
Chicago trades #26 overall (13.9, 700) to Jacksonville for #29 overall (13.2, 640) and #129 overall (3.7, 43)
The Bears would target the same players, scooping up a pick at the end of the 4th round for their troubles as Jacksonville jumps the Saints to get their man. That extra 4th round pick would likely give them plenty of ammunition with which to trade back into the mid-to-late 3rd round if necessary should a favorite prospect slip to the 80s or 90s like Penn State WR DaeSean Hamilton, Alabama CB Anthony Averett, USC OLB Uchenna Nwosu, or Kansas OLB Dorance Armstrong, to say nothing of extreme boom-or-bust candidate LSU OLB Arden Key.
This post is relatively straightforward: unlike most rebuilding teams, the Bears have shed picks instead of acquiring picks in recent years. It's time to acquire some extra picks, Ryan.
And please, oh please, don't draft a collegiate interior offensive lineman at #8.
Today, I'm doing something that is more fun for me: putting together the dream scenario for tomorrow night. It's rare that the Bears have been in such an obvious trade down situation, but that's where they find themselves tomorrow. The seven picks prior to Chicago's figure to be littered with quarterbacks, which means two things: first, quarterback-needy squads later in the draft figure to get restless, and second, the teams immediately ahead of the Bears figure to nab elite talents -- like Penn State RB Saquon Barkley, North Carolina State DE/OLB Bradley Chubb, and Notre Dame G Quenton Nelson -- later than they might in a draft that featured fewer upper-echelon quarterbacks. With that in mind, here's my dream scenario:
1. Cleveland: QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
----- Allen is the top QB with the best chance of slipping in the draft. That's impossible if he goes #1.
2. New York Giants: QB Sam Darnold (USC)
----- Another QB.
3. New York Jets: QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
----- Teams drafting in the teens are now terrified that there won't be any quarterbacks left!
4. Cleveland: RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
----- I adore Saquon and I genuinely believe that he can be a catalyst that helps turn things around in Cleveland. Thus, I'm either prescient or a chump. It'll be tough for Cleveland to pass on Chubb if he's still here, but in this dream scenario, the Browns passing on Chubb is essential. If he goes to Cleveland, the dream scenarios become much less likely.
5. Denver: G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)
----- This is a key pick: if Denver loves Nelson, they're disinclined to trade back. I don't want the Bears drafting a pure guard this high. It's been generations since a college guard drafted this highly worked out.
6. Indianapolis: DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
----- Chubb is a top-3 talent in just about every draft. He's too good to pass up on here for Indy, preventing another trade.
7. Tampa Bay: LT Mike McGlinchy (Notre Dame)
----- This one requires three factors working together in unison. First, Tampa has to have given up on former Penn State stalwart LT Donovan Smith. Second, Tampa has to love McGlinchy. Third, Tampa requires solid intel that Chicago, San Francisco, or Oakland will pick McGlinchy is he's on the board. In that perfect storm scenario, Tampa has to stay at #7 to get their man in order to keep Jameis Winston upright.
The above scenario is almost too good to be true for the Bears, though it's hardly far-fetched. It results in only Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson remaining on the board at quarterback. At that point, the Bears need more than one of Miami, Buffalo, Arizona, Baltimore, New England, or New Orleans to be head over heels for one of these guys. Every team in the league knows that the Bears (at #8), 49ers (at #9), and Raiders (at #10) aren't taking a quarterback, so leverage will have to come in the form of external competition. Miami makes plenty of sense -- Ryan Tannehill has only been OK, is coming off of a knee injury, and was drafted three GMs ago. Buffalo and Arizona both had recent success with older QBs but are looking to reset at the position. New England and New Orleans both need succession plans, though ponying up for the move to #8 may prove too rich for those clubs.
Unfortunately for the Bears, potential trade partners will be able to use San Francisco and Oakland as leverage against Chicago. Fortunately for the Bears, if there are enough teams involved, that issue should be mitigated.
Buffalo is my top choice in a trade partner. At #12, Buffalo's pick is close enough to the Bears' to move down and plausibly maintain a shot at a top target. Accordingly, the Bears swing the following deal:
Chicago trades #8 overall (21.4 CS, 1400 JJ) to Buffalo for #12 overall (18.8, 1200) and #65 overall (8, 265)
The Bears only pick up a hair of extra value on the Johnson chart, but this is a big boost on the Chase Stuart chart, a 25% increase in value. That matters a lot for the Bears.
From here, I'd be plenty content with the Bears picking LB Tremaine Edmunds (intentionally listed as merely "LB" given his versatile ability to play inside on early downs before shifting into a pass rushing role on later downs, if necessary), ILB Roquan Smith, CB Denzel Ward, DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, OLB Marcus Davenport, or WR Calvin Ridley at #12. Each pick makes tons of sense.
But do you know what makes even more sense? Leveraging access to Washington NT Vita Vea and trading down again.
Washington (NFL edition) is likely to make a play for Vea at #13, so any team desiring to draft the behemoth lineman will need to get to #12. The Chargers, Dallas, Detroit, and Atlanta all make sense for such a move as teams in win-now mode that would love a plug-and-play talent like Vea in their interior. As a result, Ryan Pace really changes his draft by making the following deal:
Chicago trades #12 overall (18.8, 1200) to Atlanta for #26 overall (13.9, 700), #200 overall (1, 11.4), and Atlanta's 2019 1st round pick
Woah. Atlanta struck out in free agency when it came time to replace Dontari Poe, so they're looking for a big piece in the middle of their defense. I'm not certain as to where Atlanta thinks they are on the win curve -- they could be headed for a mini-rebuild -- but if they're pushing for the Super Bowl again, this kind of move makes some sense. For the Bears, it's a no-brainer as the chance to get another 1st round pick is simply too enticing, especially since NFL front offices apply such hefty discounts to future picks given the likelihood that some other general manager has the job by then.
I had considered a big deal with New England, but it doesn't really make sense. At some point, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are going to decide to move on from football. That time could well be in the next two years. Making a big move and mortgaging a future pick only makes sense if the Patriots are going to face a rebuild in the coming years. Here's hoping that the time is now and that the Bears are involved. Unfortunately, it won't be for Vea after the Pats sent their 2019 3rd rounder to Cleveland for Danny Shelton.
At #26, the Bears could hope to land Boston College OLB Harold Landry, Iowa CB Joshua Jackson, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Michigan DE Maurice Hurst, or Georgia G Isaiah Wynn, among others. Any of those picks would be fine.
In the end, the Bears would be dropping all the way from #8 to #26, a drop of 700 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart (equivalent of the #26 pick itself) and 7.5 points on the Chase Stuart chart (equivalent of the #70 overall pick). That's a lot of value. In exchange for their troubles, they'd pick up #65 overall, #200 overall, and a future 1st rounder. That's the kind of talent influx that the Bears need to fill out the roster: lots of bodies. That'd wrap things up for the team.
Unless...
What if the Jaguars decide that Lamar Jackson is an ideal successor at quarterback, especially in a run-first attack, who just needs another year or two to develop? What if New Orleans agrees? Well, then...
Chicago trades #26 overall (13.9, 700) to Jacksonville for #29 overall (13.2, 640) and #129 overall (3.7, 43)
The Bears would target the same players, scooping up a pick at the end of the 4th round for their troubles as Jacksonville jumps the Saints to get their man. That extra 4th round pick would likely give them plenty of ammunition with which to trade back into the mid-to-late 3rd round if necessary should a favorite prospect slip to the 80s or 90s like Penn State WR DaeSean Hamilton, Alabama CB Anthony Averett, USC OLB Uchenna Nwosu, or Kansas OLB Dorance Armstrong, to say nothing of extreme boom-or-bust candidate LSU OLB Arden Key.
This post is relatively straightforward: unlike most rebuilding teams, the Bears have shed picks instead of acquiring picks in recent years. It's time to acquire some extra picks, Ryan.
And please, oh please, don't draft a collegiate interior offensive lineman at #8.
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
Scenarios for the Bears in the First Round of the 2018 NFL Draft
Last year, I wrote a similar post on draft night. Despite the fact that the Bears were picking third overall, the actual outcome -- trading up to #2 overall for Mitch Trubisky -- wasn't on my list of possibilities. Had it been, it would have rated in the bottom third of 15 possible outcomes.
This year, the range of possibilities is enormous. The difference from picking eighth and picking third encompasses so many additional outcomes as to make touching on all of them nearly impossible. So, instead, I'll focus on the most likely scenarios, preemptively grading them so as to avoid claims of hot-take grading.
But first, a few general rules. For every scenario listed below, trading down/adding extra picks would make each scenario move up a few spots. For example, drafting versatile Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds at #8 is currently the eighth ranked outcome (it's also the top-ranked likely scenario). But if Pace trades down a spot or three and still nabs Edmunds, that's clearly preferable. Similarly, trading up/surrendering extra picks to get a player always moves that choice down on this list.
1. A whole bunch of teams love the quarterbacks in this class, and at least three of Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson go in the top four picks, creating a mad scramble among teams to get into the top ten in order to secure their quarterback of the future. The Patriots find this to be an ideal time to purchase Tom Brady's successor but they want to hold onto at least one 2018 first rounder in order to help their quarterback, so Pace nabs three New England selections: #31 overall, #43 overall, and their 2019 first-round pick. The Bears would surrender 1,400 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart in exchange for 1,070 2018 points and at least 590 2019 points, before any discounting. That's a nice haul and perhaps the Patriots are willing to pay such a premium in order to keep that 23rd overall pick with which to help Brady this year. On the Chase Stuart chart, the Bears would surrender 21.4 points but acquire a staggering 35.8 at a minimum. NFL trades tend to follow the Johnson chart, more or less, while the Stuart chart conveys the actual value of extra draft picks. Teams should almost always seek to acquire extra picks. Trading a top-ten pick for three top-50 picks certainly qualifies. Pace likely only makes a deal like this one because of his extra job security by virtue of his recent extension.
2. Almost everything as set out above, except it is the Bills that make the move to #8, surrendering either #12 and #65 (1,465 JJ; 26.8 CS), or #22, #56, and #65 (1,415 JJ; 31.9 CS). At #12, the Bears still get LB Edmunds or Georgia ILB Roquan Smith. At #22, the Bears get OLB Harold Landry or OLB Marcus Davenport.
3. Almost everything as set out above, except it is the Cardinals that make the move to #8, surrendering #15 and #47 (1,480 JJ; 27.5). At #15, the Bears still get LB Edmunds, ILB Smith, OLB Landry, OLB Davenport, or Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchy.
4. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing OLB Bradley Chubb in Chicago at #8.
5. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing RB Saquon Barkley in Chicago at #8. Pace then flips RB Jordan Howard for a third rounder (this scenario slides up or down depending on the Howard compensation).
6. The most chaotic scenario: Cleveland takes their new franchise quarterback at #1 overall, but after the Giants pass on a QB in favor of someone else (likely Barkley), Cleveland is berated with phone calls at #4. They make a deal with Buffalo (#12), acquiring extra picks in the process. The Browns are floored when OT McGlinchy is on the board at #8, so they send #12 and #64 (1,470 JJ; 26.9 CS) to the Bears for #8. At #12, the hope remains that LB Edmunds or ILB Smith is around.
7. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing RB Barkley in Chicago at #8. Pace confusingly holds onto RB Howard, leaving the roster overloaded with Barkley, Howard, and Tarik Cohen.
8. Pace lands LB Edmunds at #8. This is still a very good outcome. Edmunds is an exceptional athlete who should be able to be a force both in coverage and run defense as he grows into his role as a pass rusher from the outside. I love his prospect status, even if I have a slight concern that he's the next Amobi Okoye (a guy who's easy to dream on as a 19-year-old in the draft, but who peaks as a solid starter and take a few years to get there).
9. Pace lands ILB Smith at #8. This is still a good outcome even though I prefer Edmunds to Smith.
10. The most chaotic scenario, part deux: Cleveland takes their new franchise quarterback at #1 overall, but after the Giants pass on a QB in favor of someone else (likely Barkley), Cleveland is berated with phone calls at #4. They make a deal with Baltimore (#16), acquiring extra picks in the process. The Browns are floored when OT McGlinchy is on the board at #8, so they send #16 and #35 (1,550 JJ; 28.9 CS) to the Bears for #8 and #105 (1,484 JJ; 26.4 CS). I don't love wheeling and dealing without adding at least one extra pick in the first four rounds, but there's value in this deal. At #16, the hopes are probably OLB Landry, OLB Davenport, WR Calvin Ridley, CB Denzel Ward, or DB Minkah Fitzpatrick.
11. Pace lands Ohio State CB Ward at #8. This is an OK outcome. Ward is a good corner prospect. He's not huge (5'11", 183 lbs.) but he runs like a NFL corner and has strong ball skills with the footwork to pull it all together. I wouldn't love this pick but I'd like it.
12. Pace lands Alabama DB Fitzpatrick at #8. This is also an OK outcome, which surprises me. Some of Fitzpatrick's value comes from his ability to play in the slot, a spot where he'd figure to get most of his early time with the Bears. I don't like the idea of drafting a safety so highly given the presence of strong young duo Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson, but Fitzpatrick has enough versatility to play 800+ snaps. That makes his selection OK, even if it isn't tremendous value. Side note: I'm squeamish about Alabama defensive backs thanks to Dee Milliner. I thought he'd be a star, he tested wonderfully, and he flamed out of the league in three years anyway. Man, the draft is tough.
13. Pace lands Florida State S Derwin James at #8. I like James better as a prospect than Fitzpatrick, but I sense that James is a true safety, despite his apparent scheme versatility in college. This is both high for a safety and doesn't fill a need. I wouldn't like this outcome all that much.
14. Pace lands Iowa CB Joshua Jackson at #8. This is much too high for Jackson, who has good size but failed to quiet concerns about his speed at the Combine (though his Pro Day was better). Big bodies who don't run that well --> second day picks, not top-ten picks.
15. Pace picks Alabama WR Ridley, SMU WR Courtland Sutton, or Maryland WR D.J. Moore at #8. This would sting. Letting Cam Meredith walk is over and done with, though the move gnaws at me even though I don't have access to Meredith's medicals. Drafting the solid-but-unspectacular looking Ridley in the top-ten would pour salt in the wound; ditto Sutton and Moore.
16. Pace lands seemingly everybody's favorite fit as G Quenton Nelson falls to #8. I dislike this move in general: the Bears had an above-average starter in-house, let him go to clear cap space (presumably) that they didn't use, then invest a premium pick in his replacement. Gross. Sure, Harry Hiestand is happy, but the team isn't much better off, if at all. This is much too high for a guard anyway. The supposed "can't miss" guard prospects of the last 20 years have all overwhelmingly disappointed.
17. Pace panics in his desire for a linebacker with Edmunds and Smith both surprisingly off the board and reaches in a big way for Boise State ILB Leighton Vander Esch. Vander Esch shouldn't have to carry the burden of Shea McClellin, but he does, at least a little bit in my mind. Vander Esch plays faster than he tested, has a good build, and looks like he'll be a plus pass defender in the NFL. I'm not sure about his run defense, but he'd be a viable target in a trade down scenario.
18. Pace settles on Nelson...who gets snapped up from under his nose at #6/#7. Pace panics. Like, really panics, and drafts Georgia G Isaiah Wynn after 15 spots too soon. Ugh.
19. Pace falls in love with somebody other than G Nelson, trading up to #6 or #7 to get his man. This likely means Edmunds, Fitzpatrick, James, or Ward.
20. Pace falls in love with Chubb or Barkley, trading up into the top-five to get his man.
21. Pace falls in love with G Nelson, trading up to #6 or #7 to get his man.
22. Pace falls in love with G Nelson, trading up into the top-five to get his man.
***The above doesn't include the true top scenario for the Bears, which is obviously that Notre Dame WR Equanimeous St. Brown slips to the fourth round where Pace gobbles him up, adding a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver at a muted draft cost, simply because Brandon Wimbush couldn't throw.
This year, the range of possibilities is enormous. The difference from picking eighth and picking third encompasses so many additional outcomes as to make touching on all of them nearly impossible. So, instead, I'll focus on the most likely scenarios, preemptively grading them so as to avoid claims of hot-take grading.
But first, a few general rules. For every scenario listed below, trading down/adding extra picks would make each scenario move up a few spots. For example, drafting versatile Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds at #8 is currently the eighth ranked outcome (it's also the top-ranked likely scenario). But if Pace trades down a spot or three and still nabs Edmunds, that's clearly preferable. Similarly, trading up/surrendering extra picks to get a player always moves that choice down on this list.
1. A whole bunch of teams love the quarterbacks in this class, and at least three of Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson go in the top four picks, creating a mad scramble among teams to get into the top ten in order to secure their quarterback of the future. The Patriots find this to be an ideal time to purchase Tom Brady's successor but they want to hold onto at least one 2018 first rounder in order to help their quarterback, so Pace nabs three New England selections: #31 overall, #43 overall, and their 2019 first-round pick. The Bears would surrender 1,400 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart in exchange for 1,070 2018 points and at least 590 2019 points, before any discounting. That's a nice haul and perhaps the Patriots are willing to pay such a premium in order to keep that 23rd overall pick with which to help Brady this year. On the Chase Stuart chart, the Bears would surrender 21.4 points but acquire a staggering 35.8 at a minimum. NFL trades tend to follow the Johnson chart, more or less, while the Stuart chart conveys the actual value of extra draft picks. Teams should almost always seek to acquire extra picks. Trading a top-ten pick for three top-50 picks certainly qualifies. Pace likely only makes a deal like this one because of his extra job security by virtue of his recent extension.
2. Almost everything as set out above, except it is the Bills that make the move to #8, surrendering either #12 and #65 (1,465 JJ; 26.8 CS), or #22, #56, and #65 (1,415 JJ; 31.9 CS). At #12, the Bears still get LB Edmunds or Georgia ILB Roquan Smith. At #22, the Bears get OLB Harold Landry or OLB Marcus Davenport.
3. Almost everything as set out above, except it is the Cardinals that make the move to #8, surrendering #15 and #47 (1,480 JJ; 27.5). At #15, the Bears still get LB Edmunds, ILB Smith, OLB Landry, OLB Davenport, or Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchy.
4. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing OLB Bradley Chubb in Chicago at #8.
5. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing RB Saquon Barkley in Chicago at #8. Pace then flips RB Jordan Howard for a third rounder (this scenario slides up or down depending on the Howard compensation).
6. The most chaotic scenario: Cleveland takes their new franchise quarterback at #1 overall, but after the Giants pass on a QB in favor of someone else (likely Barkley), Cleveland is berated with phone calls at #4. They make a deal with Buffalo (#12), acquiring extra picks in the process. The Browns are floored when OT McGlinchy is on the board at #8, so they send #12 and #64 (1,470 JJ; 26.9 CS) to the Bears for #8. At #12, the hope remains that LB Edmunds or ILB Smith is around.
7. Chaos ensues at the top of the board, inexplicably landing RB Barkley in Chicago at #8. Pace confusingly holds onto RB Howard, leaving the roster overloaded with Barkley, Howard, and Tarik Cohen.
8. Pace lands LB Edmunds at #8. This is still a very good outcome. Edmunds is an exceptional athlete who should be able to be a force both in coverage and run defense as he grows into his role as a pass rusher from the outside. I love his prospect status, even if I have a slight concern that he's the next Amobi Okoye (a guy who's easy to dream on as a 19-year-old in the draft, but who peaks as a solid starter and take a few years to get there).
9. Pace lands ILB Smith at #8. This is still a good outcome even though I prefer Edmunds to Smith.
10. The most chaotic scenario, part deux: Cleveland takes their new franchise quarterback at #1 overall, but after the Giants pass on a QB in favor of someone else (likely Barkley), Cleveland is berated with phone calls at #4. They make a deal with Baltimore (#16), acquiring extra picks in the process. The Browns are floored when OT McGlinchy is on the board at #8, so they send #16 and #35 (1,550 JJ; 28.9 CS) to the Bears for #8 and #105 (1,484 JJ; 26.4 CS). I don't love wheeling and dealing without adding at least one extra pick in the first four rounds, but there's value in this deal. At #16, the hopes are probably OLB Landry, OLB Davenport, WR Calvin Ridley, CB Denzel Ward, or DB Minkah Fitzpatrick.
11. Pace lands Ohio State CB Ward at #8. This is an OK outcome. Ward is a good corner prospect. He's not huge (5'11", 183 lbs.) but he runs like a NFL corner and has strong ball skills with the footwork to pull it all together. I wouldn't love this pick but I'd like it.
12. Pace lands Alabama DB Fitzpatrick at #8. This is also an OK outcome, which surprises me. Some of Fitzpatrick's value comes from his ability to play in the slot, a spot where he'd figure to get most of his early time with the Bears. I don't like the idea of drafting a safety so highly given the presence of strong young duo Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson, but Fitzpatrick has enough versatility to play 800+ snaps. That makes his selection OK, even if it isn't tremendous value. Side note: I'm squeamish about Alabama defensive backs thanks to Dee Milliner. I thought he'd be a star, he tested wonderfully, and he flamed out of the league in three years anyway. Man, the draft is tough.
13. Pace lands Florida State S Derwin James at #8. I like James better as a prospect than Fitzpatrick, but I sense that James is a true safety, despite his apparent scheme versatility in college. This is both high for a safety and doesn't fill a need. I wouldn't like this outcome all that much.
14. Pace lands Iowa CB Joshua Jackson at #8. This is much too high for Jackson, who has good size but failed to quiet concerns about his speed at the Combine (though his Pro Day was better). Big bodies who don't run that well --> second day picks, not top-ten picks.
15. Pace picks Alabama WR Ridley, SMU WR Courtland Sutton, or Maryland WR D.J. Moore at #8. This would sting. Letting Cam Meredith walk is over and done with, though the move gnaws at me even though I don't have access to Meredith's medicals. Drafting the solid-but-unspectacular looking Ridley in the top-ten would pour salt in the wound; ditto Sutton and Moore.
16. Pace lands seemingly everybody's favorite fit as G Quenton Nelson falls to #8. I dislike this move in general: the Bears had an above-average starter in-house, let him go to clear cap space (presumably) that they didn't use, then invest a premium pick in his replacement. Gross. Sure, Harry Hiestand is happy, but the team isn't much better off, if at all. This is much too high for a guard anyway. The supposed "can't miss" guard prospects of the last 20 years have all overwhelmingly disappointed.
17. Pace panics in his desire for a linebacker with Edmunds and Smith both surprisingly off the board and reaches in a big way for Boise State ILB Leighton Vander Esch. Vander Esch shouldn't have to carry the burden of Shea McClellin, but he does, at least a little bit in my mind. Vander Esch plays faster than he tested, has a good build, and looks like he'll be a plus pass defender in the NFL. I'm not sure about his run defense, but he'd be a viable target in a trade down scenario.
18. Pace settles on Nelson...who gets snapped up from under his nose at #6/#7. Pace panics. Like, really panics, and drafts Georgia G Isaiah Wynn after 15 spots too soon. Ugh.
19. Pace falls in love with somebody other than G Nelson, trading up to #6 or #7 to get his man. This likely means Edmunds, Fitzpatrick, James, or Ward.
20. Pace falls in love with Chubb or Barkley, trading up into the top-five to get his man.
21. Pace falls in love with G Nelson, trading up to #6 or #7 to get his man.
22. Pace falls in love with G Nelson, trading up into the top-five to get his man.
***The above doesn't include the true top scenario for the Bears, which is obviously that Notre Dame WR Equanimeous St. Brown slips to the fourth round where Pace gobbles him up, adding a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver at a muted draft cost, simply because Brandon Wimbush couldn't throw.
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