Not much else to say, so let's get right to it! I've done very little research and these rumblings are primarily the result of my gut, not any deep thoughts.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams (10-6) - Lots of talent across the board, but a step back nonetheless.
San Francisco (8-8) - I don't love Jimmy. But the defensive front is incredible. Their floor is high.
Seattle (8-8) - The Clowney fleecing should stop the defensive bleeding.
Arizona (3-13) - Hopefully Murray is fun because the talent is seriously lacking here.
NFC South
New Orleans (10-6) - I finally won't pick against these guys. Brees gets it done in a tight division.
Carolina (9-7) - This schedule is easy. If Cam is healthy, could be another big year.
Atlanta (9-7) - Lots of talent still. O-Line improvements should help a lot.
Tampa Bay (7-9) - I really like the offense, especially the pass catchers. Pressure on Jameis.
NFC East
Philadelphia (11-5) - The defense underwhelms, but the schedule is too easy and Wentz grows.
Dallas (8-8) - This roster has a good ceiling, but I don't trust them; the floor is low. Should be 3-0.
New York Giants (7-9) - Saquon is amazing. Roster is better around him, but needs more pieces.
Washington (2-14) - They got worse last year; they should be horrendous this year.
NFC North
Green Bay (13-3) - Rodgers + way more talented + five of first seven at home --> Super Bowl.
Chicago (10-6) - The Bears have little depth, but their top-line talent is great. Much tougher sked.
Minnesota (10-6) - They're not quite as talented as 2017, but there's enough here for a good year.
Detroit (4-12) - They moved the pieces around and improved some. Wrong division though.
AFC West
Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) - With Derwin James, they'd be the #2 in the NFL. So good.
Kansas City (11-5) - I now buy Mahomes. Opening schedule couldn't be easier.
Denver (8-8) - Elite defense + stinkbomb offense. Fangio needs some real help to figure out O.
Oakland (6-10) - Better talent, but wrong division yields crummy results in Oakland finale.
AFC South
Jacksonville (12-4) - Dripping with defensive talent and O-Line looks good. No pressure, Foles...
Houston (10-6) - Baffling move to give away Clowney and future is now mortgaged. But still good.
Tennessee (6-10) - I bought them twice. No longer. Time for a rebuild.
Indianapolis (4-12) - Talent has improved dramatically, but Luck's retirement is a death knell.
AFC East
New England (13-3) - This division is still poor. Too easy for New England.
Buffalo (8-8) - I actually really like the talent on this roster...just not at QB. Front seven is elite.
New York Jets (6-10) - They're progressing, but slowly. Perhaps by 2020?
Miami (1-15) - The tank is ON. It's going to be a brutally ugly year in Miami.
AFC North
Cleveland (11-5) - Can they get to November intact? If so, there are a lot of wins to be had.
Pittsburgh (9-7) - Tough early schedule, but they'll go on a run late.
Baltimore (8-8) - A lot to like on defense. But how does Lamar/the rest of the league adjust to him?
Cincinnati (3-13) - This is an ugly looking roster. It's going to be a long year.
NFC Playoff Tree
#5 Chicago over #4 New Orleans
#3 Los Angeles Rams over #6 Minnesota
#1 Green Bay over #5 Chicago (barf)
#2 Philadelphia over #3 Los Angeles Rams
#1 Green Bay over #2 Philadelphia
AFC Playoff Tree
#4 Cleveland over #5 Kansas City
#3 Los Angeles Chargers over #6 Houston
#1 New England over #4 Cleveland
#2 Jacksonville over #3 Los Angeles Chargers
#1 New England over #2 Jacksonville
Super Bowl
#1 New England over #1 Green Bay
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Some bonus notes on the Bears in lieu of a full, separate piece:
- I had no expectations for last year's team. I was just excited to see a real team play football again. This year, my expectations are that an extremely talented team will play a really tough schedule. Lots of possible outcomes here.
- The schedule is bizarre. The Bears play in DC on September 23rd, then they don't play a true road game again until November 3rd. The roadies in the season's final two months are all brutal: Philly, the Rams, Detroit (on Thanksgiving), Green Bay, and Minnesota. They desperately need to win their first three road games (Denver, Washington, and in London versus the Raiders). That's a tall order.
- I'm again most excited to see Allen Robinson in a Bears uniform after watching him at OLSM, Penn State, and with the Jaguars. Another year removed from surgery, I'm hoping for more explosiveness.
- The depth at wide receiver is tremendous: Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Taylor Gabriel are a solid starting crew, but the reserves of Cordarrelle Patterson, Riley Ridley, and Javon Wims should ensure that the Bears always have starting-caliber receivers on the field, regardless of what occurs on the injury and substitution fronts. It's a far cry from the top three of Dontrelle Inman, Kendall Wright, and Deonte Thompson from 2017. Inman and Thompson both got cut last month while Wright is out of the league.
- The offensive line is a true plus unit from left to right with Charles Leno - Cody Whitehair - James Daniels - Kyle Long - Bobby Massie. The depth, however, is non-existent outside of adequate interior reserve Ted Larsen. I think that the Bears are better equipped to absorb a Mitch Trubisky injury than one to Leno or Massie.
- The backs that will run behind that line look like an excellent collection of complementary talent. David Montgomery sure better justify his draft slot (and the trade haul Pace surrendered to get there). Even if he doesn't, however, Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis will be more than sufficient to support the rushing attack.
- The tight end group has a greater variance in possible outcomes than any other position. Trey Burton was great last year...when he was healthy. His groin is already balky this year. Adam Shaheen was a Combine star...who kept getting hurt. He missed most of the preseason. Ben Braunecker has looked good as a #3 tight end, but he's probably nothing more than that. And Bradley Sowell is a blocker.
- I love the top four on the defensive line with starting nose Eddie Goldman and three primary ends Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, and Roy Robertson-Harris. Hicks remains essential, but Nichols and Robertson-Harris were both so good that they rendered Jonathan Bullard superfluous.
- Khalil Mack simply cannot get hurt. The outside linebacker position remains dreadful behind him with only the subpar Leonard Floyd, regularly-injured Aaron Lynch, and 2017 undrafted rookie Isaiah Irving behind him. That's it. Mack is the single most essential player to the success of the 2019 Bears.
- Thank God Pace hasn't signed Marcus Cooper again this year...at least not yet.
- I don't like HaHa Clinton-Dix as much as Adrian Amos, but the efficiency of the Bears-Packers safety "trade" is tough to question. With Eddie Jackson, Deon Bush and DeAndre Houston-Carson, the safety group remains very strong.
- The cornerback group isn't as attractive as it was last year after swapping out Bryce Callahan and replacing him with Buster Skrine. Here's hoping that (1) Skrine's deficiencies were the result of playing in a poor Jets defense, and/or (2) Sherrick McManis can carry the load in the slot if Skrine isn't up to the task.
- Eddy Pineiro, please make your kicks. I don't like his approaching and leg swing, but I also thought that Chris Sale would never stick as a starter in the Majors thanks to his delivery. There's no one way to do your job well. The Bears are going to be in a lot of close games. Pineiro needs to get the job done.
- Now, we get to Mitch. He's a weird quarterback: he's sneaky athletic and a truly plus runner, but I can't tell if he's actually any good when it comes time to throw the football. With another year in Matt Nagy's offense, in his third year as a pro, and with an offense full of weapons around him, this is arguably the best shot Trubisky will have at making a Super Bowl run for the foreseeable future. No pressure, kid.
- Finally, the depth issues on the roster remain noticeable at a few spots. The lack of valuable draft picks as a result of the Trubisky, Mack, Miller, and Montgomery trades is particularly obvious when examining the missing depth on the offensive line, at outside linebacker, and at cornerback. Health will likely determine the success of the 2019 campaign more than coaching or scheme.
I picked the Bears for 10-6 above. Here's how I got there:
Green Bay: 60%
@ Denver: 70%
@ Washington: 90%
Minnesota: 65%
Oakland (London): 80%
BYE
New Orleans: 60%
Los Angeles Chargers: 55%
@ Philadelphia: 30%
Detroit: 85%
@ Los Angeles Rams: 35%
New York Giants: 75%
@ Detroit: 50%
Dallas: 70%
@ Green Bay: 35%
Kansas City: 60%
@ Minnesota: 40%
That yields 9.2 wins if we take a strict view of the odds, but I've come to appreciate the deviations above or below 8 yield wins at a more significant level than that of a one-to-one ratio. Accordingly, 10-6 it is.
To close, I'm adding one additional feature this year: a list of the Bears' 10 most indispensable players. Here goes:
To close, I'm adding one additional feature this year: a list of the Bears' 10 most indispensable players. Here goes:
- OLB Khalil Mack
- LT Charles Leno Jr.
- QB Mitch Trubisky
- OLB Leonard Floyd (even though he's not all that good)
- CB Kyle Fuller
- RT Bobby Massie
- S Eddie Jackson
- CB Prince Amukamara
- NT Eddie Goldman
- WR Allen Robinson
Clearly that isn't a list of the Bears' top-10 players in order; for example, Akiem Hicks would rate very near the top of a list of the club's best players, but with both Roy Robertson-Harris and Bilal Nichols around to pick up the load if Hicks goes out, he's far less indispensable than Mack, whose absence would alarmingly force Aaron Lynch into a full-time gig. Seen in that light, the list above is relatively self-explanatory.
I suspect that the Bears will have a great season if the listed players above prove to be paragons of health in 2019. If, instead, that group is littered with injured stars, 2019 could be a long, unpleasant season.
