2018 MLB Picks

No time for a drawn out series of picks today - gotta get right to it. So here goes!

AL East
New York (94-68) - An incredible lineup and enough pitching.
Boston (93-69) - On the wrong end of an awesome stretch run versus their longtime rivals.
Baltimore (80-82) - Machado bolts in July.
Tampa Bay (72-90) - I have no idea what they're doing. Could win 85. Could win 65.
Toronto (70-92) - This year kicks them into a full-on rebuild.

AL Central
Cleveland (103-59) - A loaded team + a crap division --> 103 wins.
Minnesota (82-80) - Closer to their true talent level from 2017. Lived in bargain bin (solid choice).
Chicago White Sox (77-85) - 2018 is going to be really fun for Sox fans as the future really arrives.
Kansas City (67-95) - Back to the 1990s/2000s...
Detroit (60-102) - Primary intrigue: can they find a way to unload Jordan Zimmermann in July?

AL West
Houston (99-63) - No real World Series hangover here. Good thing, too: they can't afford it in West.
Anaheim (85-77) - A weirdly mediocre team (again) sneaks into October in a weird AL.
Texas (81-81) - They're tough to read. Hopefully Odor isn't a disaster again.
Seattle (78-84) - They either needed to spend $50M or start over. Selection? Neither.
Oakland (71-91) - Puk's injury kills their chance at intrigue.

NL East
Washington (95-67) - Still bursting with talent in Harper's swan song.
New York (88-74) - I think they'll be healthy enough, just not quite good enough.
Philadelphia (85-77) - Tough to read. Hopefully Jake jolts the rebuild into its next phase.
Atlanta (70-92) - Really kept that powder dry for 2019...
Miami (55-107) - Jeter gonna make that profit!

NL Central
Chicago (98-64) - They're going to need every one of these wins. Totally loaded MLB roster.
St. Louis (96-66) - You didn't think they'd stay down for long, did you? What a cute idea.
Milwaukee (81-81) - 2019 remains the target, despite a fun 2017.
Pittsburgh (68-94) - Kicking off the next great rebuild.
Cincinnati (63-99) - I have no idea what they're doing.

NL West
Los Angeles (100-62) - Holy Toledo is this team loaded. Lineup great. 8+ MLB SPs. Great bully.
Colorado (90-72) - Tapia/Dahl make the Desmond situation awkward, which is good for the team.
San Francisco (84-78) - Lots of vets play well but ceiling is weirdly low and injuries already loom.
Arizona (81-81) - Look for a big Pollock haul in July.
San Diego (64-98) - At least Hosmer got cash 'cause it's gonna be lean for a few more years.

Playoff Tree
Boston over Anaheim
St. Louis over Colorado

Cleveland over Boston
Houston over New York
St. Louis over Chicago
Washington over Los Angeles

Cleveland over Houston
Washington over St. Louis

Cleveland over Washington

Awards
AL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton, NYY
AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber, CLE
AL ROY: Eloy Jimenez, CWS
AL MOY: Terry Francona, CLE
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, WSH
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer, WSH
NL ROY: Ronald Acuna, ATL
NL MOY: Davey Martinez, WSH

NCAA Tournament Seeds: Do the Metrics Agree with the Committee?

Last March, I took a look at how closely the Committee's seedings coordinated with three advanced ratings indices: (1) RPI, (2) Ken Pomeroy's ratings, and (3) Jeff Sagarin's ratings in an effort to see how closely the Committee lined up with the advanced consensus.

That was fun. So let's do it again.

Last year, the most egregiously misseeded teams all played to form except for Northwestern. To wit:

• #10 Wichita State (should've been #5) beat #7 Dayton, then narrowly lost to #2 Kentucky (65-62);
• #6 Maryland (should've been #10) lost to #11 Xavier 76-65;
• #9 Seton Hall (should've been a #1 in the NIT) lost to #8 Arkansas 77-71;
• #11 Providence (should've been a #3 in the NIT) lost to #11 USC 75-71 in the First Four;
• #5 Minnesota (should've been #8) lost to #12 MTSU 81-72;
• #8 Northwestern (should've been #11) beat #9 Vanderbilt 68-66, then narrowly lost to #1 Gonzaga 79-73; and
• #9 Virginia Tech (should've been #12) lost to #8 Wisconsin 84-74.

Here are the findings with a team's actual seed listed first and its expected seed listed second. The list covers all teams from Virginia through Syracuse; San Diego State through Texas Southern will not be included as automatic qualifiers at the bottom of the bracket.

CORRECTLY SEEDED (15)
Virginia (1), Villanova (1), North Carolina (2), Purdue (2), Cincinnati (2), Michigan (3), Gonzaga (4), West Virginia (5), Clemson (5), Ohio State (5), Houston (6), TCU (6), Texas A&M (7), Nevada (7), Creighton (8)

MISSED BY ONE (14)
Kansas (1 - 2), Duke (2 - 1), Michigan State (3 - 2), Tennessee (3 - 4), Wichita State (4 - 5), Arizona (4 - 5), Kentucky (5 - 4), Florida (6 - 7), Arkansas (7 - 8), Seton Hall (8 - 7), Florida State (9 - 10), Texas (10 - 11), UCLA (11 - #1 NIT), Syracuse (11 - #1 NIT)

MISSED BY TWO (8)
Xavier (1 - 3), Texas Tech (3 - 5), Auburn (4 - 6), Miami (6 - 8), Butler (10 - 8), Oklahoma (10 - #1 NIT), St. Bonaventure (11 - #2 NIT), Arizona State (11 - #2 NIT)

MISSED BY THREE (6)
Rhode Island (7 - 10), Virginia Tech (8 - 11), Kansas State (9 - 12), Providence (10 - #2 NIT), Alabama (9 - #1 NIT), NC State (9 - #1 NIT)

MISSED BY FOUR (0)

MISSED BY FIVE (1)
Missouri (8 - #2 NIT)

Here are some additional quick hits of note:

1. The hilarious seeding saga of Wichita State gets another entry. Last year, the Shockers should've been a 5. This year, the Shockers should be a 5. Their actual seeds? A 10 and a 4. Ha!

2. Word on the street is that the NCAA had it in for USC, Louisville, and perhaps even Oklahoma State, wanting to keep them out of the Tourney due to recent investigations. It doesn't hold water for Okie St (expected 15 seed), but it sure does for USC (9) and especially Louisville (8). There was no notable outlier rating for either Louisville or USC, either. They were straight up snubbed.

3. Saint Mary's also got the shaft (expected 9 seed).

4. A few automatic qualifiers to keep an eye on:

• Loyola (IL) received an 11 seed as the top auto-bid among the non-majors. Their resume would've given them...an 11 seed, even as an at-large. Look out, overrated Miami.
• Davidson and San Diego State are both properly seeded as 12 seeds.
• New Mexico State also got a 12 seed and earned a 14 seed based on its resume. Quite strong.

5. In addition to USC and Louisville as mentioned above, here are the best consensus teams to miss the field:

• Middle Tennessee State would've earned a 13 seed in a pure meritocracy.
• After Louisville, USC, and Saint Mary's, Penn State and Notre Dame were the next best teams to miss the Tournament. Both should've been on the 12 line.
• Maryland and Marquette both would've been 13 seeds in a pure meritocracy.

6. I've mentioned outliers a bit above, but they bear additional mentioning here:

• RPI absolutely ruined the chances of both Penn State and Notre Dame. Nittany's RPI was 69th; the consensus of their KenPom and Sagarin ratings would've put them at 33.5 on the 9 line. Notre Dame's RPI was 81st (!) but their KenPom/Sagarin consensus was 28th, on the 7 line. Tough for the Irish.
• Baylor experienced a similar fate: 100th in RPI but consensus 32 (8 seed) elsewhere.
• Rhode Island should've been a 4 seed according to RPI, but on the bubble according to both other metrics. Fortunately for them, Oklahoma isn't any better, thus, the big winner here is Duke who figures to enjoy a smooth path to the Sweet 16.
• There may be something funky going on with RPI and the SEC. LSU and Mississippi State posted notably similar scores in KenPom (61st, 62nd) and Sagarin (70th, 65th), but both schools fell way down the list in RPI (92nd, 91st). The similarity of their scores in all three systems makes the RPI score stand out even more.

7. Finally, a nod to the teams with the greatest consensus across the three ratings systems:

• Unsurprisingly, the teams with the least variation were Virginia and Villanova. Virginia nabbed the top spot twice and one second place finish while Villanova took the opposite spot each time. Let's call this one point of variation for each.
• The only other squad with just one point of variation? Michigan, who came in 11th, 10th, and 11th in RPI, KenPom, and Sagarin, respectively.
• Teams with only two or three points of variation: Duke (duh), Kansas (OK), Purdue (sure), Cincinnati (fine), and...Seton Hall? The Pirates were 28th in RPI while coming in 26th in both of the other metrics. Weird but cool.
• Remarkably, UCLA came in at 45th, 48th, and 44th across the three systems. Nobody else has that type of consistency so far down the chart except for Marquette (50th, 53rd, and 51st) who was left out in the cold.

Hot-Take Grades on the Bears Moves in Free Agency

I did this post last offseason in the midst of Ryan Pace's nightmare March. I've been so plugged in to NFL free agency this year that I've done a companion post for major moves in the league at large, seen here.

This year, I'm going to evaluate Pace's moves again. I'm bummed that I don't have a blogged record of my take on Marcus Cooper's signing from last year, so I'll be sure to include every even vaguely noteworthy transaction from the Bears this March.*

It's essential to remember that every GM in every sport spends his entire allotment of cash/cap space every year with only the most extreme exceptions. Accordingly, get ready for the Bears to spend a boatload of money, regardless of who they spend it on.

Important reminder: no grade inflation here! A "C" is average. A "D" is below average. An "F" is
failing. A "B" is above-average. An "A" is peak value.

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Wednesday April 11 @ 3:12pm

Bears Do NOT Match Offer Sheet Signed by WR Cameron Meredith (2 years, $9.6M ($5.4M guaranteed)
Bears: F-. Resigning Marcus Cooper was the worst move of Pace's tenure for just 16 days.

The bungling of the Meredith situation is likely to be the final straw for me with the GM. Pace will end the offseason with something in the neighborhood of $20M in unused cap space. Even if a good chunk of that goes toward extending a young player like Eddie Goldman or Adrian Amos, there's no way he couldn't have fit roughly $5M for Meredith into the cap puzzle for this year and next. A young, ascending player will walk out the door.

To make matters worse, Pace could've kept Meredith for $3M by assigning the second-round tender. I was surprised that Pace opted for the low tender, but it made sense provided that Pace planned to match any vaguely reasonable multi-year deal agreed to by Meredith. Basically anything less than $20M over three years should've been a slam dunk for the Bears with a young, big target with strong hands. It's nearly unthinkable that the Bears truly valued Meredith at somewhere north of $2M but south of $3M. In a wide receiver marketplace where Markus Wheaton got $6M, Meredith was certainly worth at least that much. Instead, he's gone and the Bears have nothing to show for having unearthed a promising young player.

This is asset management at its worst. The wide receiver depth chart looked strong with Allen Robinson, Meredith, Taylor Gabriel, Kevin White, and Josh Bellamy. Adding a draftee to the mix would've completed the position and given the team a bevy of mid-20s options to compete for snaps as Mitch Trubisky develops. Keeping Meredith on an inexpensive deal would've freed up Pace to draft a player at another position. Now, instead, the Bears almost certainly need to use an early pick on Meredith's replacement. That pick won't be an edge pass rusher, a guard, a cornerback, or an inside linebacker, all positions that the club also needs to address in the early stages of the draft.

This is a colossal miss and it means that the team will enter the season with two of its top three receivers coming off of season-ending injuries from last September. Meredith's presence would've mitigated some of that risk, despite his own season-ending injury suffered last August. Instead, his absence only exacerbates the problem.

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Monday March 26 @ 12:19pm

Bears Sign CB Marcus Cooper for 1 year, $??? ($??? guaranteed)
Bears: F-. Arguably the new worst move of Ryan Pace's tenure as GM. Even with so little at stake here -- reportedly the deal is for just over the veteran's minimum with incentives that can take it up to $2.5M -- this is an irredeemable transaction. From a purely analytical standpoint, there's no reason to bring in a player like Cooper. He ranked 101st of 112 qualified corners in 2016 (45.5 PFF) before inexplicably inking a "three-year deal" with the Bears last March. Cooper was somehow, mind-bogglingly worse in 2017 (42.5 PFF). That's not a player that should sniff any roster.

And that's before we talk about the Steelers game. In the game, Cooper was beaten handily throughout the game, but his moment of shame arrived as he slowed to a trot returning a blocked field goal for an easy touchdown, so much so that he was caught from behind before fumbling into the end zone, costing the Bears four points in the process (and it wasn't seven only because of a Pittsburgh penalty). That effectively ended his run as a Bear: Cooper 199 defensive snaps through four games but just 47 the rest of the season combined. It's worth remembering too that his high-snap game, Week 10 against the Lions, featured just 12 snaps. Eight of those snaps came on one drive on which Cooper managed to allow (i) a 17-yard pass to TJ Jones on 3rd and 15, and (ii) a 28-yard touchdown to Marvin Jones on 2nd and 8.

Cooper is unplayable. Bringing him back is a bad move that doubles as a terrible message.

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Saturday March 17 @ 12:35am

Bears Match Offer Sheet for CB Kyle Fuller; Bears Sign CB Kyle Fuller for 4 years, $56M ($18M guaranteed)
Bears: B-. I'm pleased that Fuller is coming back. His bizarre 2016 knee injury lost season notwithstanding, he had a solid if unspectacular start to his career before really improving in 2017 and establishing himself as a plus starter. Given that history, he's not without risk here.

Even with that, however, Pace played this swimmingly. By having so much cap space available and given changes to the CBA this decade that prevented the more creative poison pill contracts in ROFR situations from the past decade (looking at you, Steve Hutchinson and Nate Burleson), it was effectively impossible for a team to craft a poison pill deal here that put Fuller out of reach.

The fact that the Packers were the team that ponied up the offer sheet that Fuller ultimately signed before coming back to the Bears just made it that much sweeter. Solid deal.

Bears Do NOT Release TE Dion Sims
Bears: D-. Ugh. I know that Pace signed Sims because he believes in him and that's great. However, Pace has invested heavily in receiving options at the tight end spot (Shaheen, Burton) and there's no way on God's green earth that a blocking tight end is worth the $5.333M net cap space that Sims will occupy in 2018. That's just a bad, bad move.

Bears Sign TE Daniel Brown for 1 year, $0.925M ($70K guaranteed)
Bears: C+. This is a good moment: while we don't yet have the terms on Brown's contract, we do know that Pace did not tender him as a restricted free agent, so he presumably came in well under the RFA tender amounts here. I suspect that Brown gets the minimum or something close to it. That's a nice move for the fourth tight end.

Bears Sign QB Tyler Bray for ??? years, $??? ($??? guaranteed)
Bears: C. This is fine, I guess. There's basically no way that Bray makes the roster, so this just adds another voice to the QB room that has familiarity with Matt Nagy's system. I guess that's valuable.

Bears Release CB Marcus Cooper
Bears: C. The most obvious no-brainer move.

Bears Release WR Markus Wheaton
Bears: C. An obvious no-brainer of a move. The murmurs that the Bears may take another look at Wheaton in camp before releasing him terrified me and made no sense given the message that it could send to the young roster. Thankully, Pace didn't drop the ball here.

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Thursday March 15 @ 9:51pm

Bears Agree to Terms with OLB Aaron Lynch for 1 year, $6M ($??? guaranteed)
Bears: B+. I expected Lynch's deal to come in between $3-5M, at which price point I would have given this an A-. Instead, a B+ will do.

Lynch is precisely the type of player that the Bears needed to find at OLB. He comes with plenty of risk: Lynch fell out of favor with the new regime in San Francisco, logging just 157 defensive snaps this year and finding himself inactive for multiple games. He played just 222 games the year before under Chip Kelly's regime. Lynch reportedly showing up to training camp 20 pounds overweight this year. The red flags are voluminous.

So why is he worth the shot? Pass rushing prowess. Lynch has always had big-time skills, dating to his time as a top-30 national recruit at Notre Dame (before he transferred to South Florida). Lynch entered the NFL as a fifth round pick but immediately found his way into the 49ers rotation as a rookie, earning a top-10 pass rushing efficiency grade from PFF as a rookie. His 2015 season was the real breakout as he compiled an 80.0 grade playing nearly two-thirds of the San Francisco snaps. Expecting big things in 2016, he instead began the year with a four game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy and never got going en roue to a putrid 51.3 grade in his final season playing in a 3-4 defense. With the shift to a 4-3 and Lynch coming off of a poor year in limited reps, he barely got on the field this year...yet curiously, he produced his second strongest grade at 78.7.

His pass rushing grades have consistently been strong with his run grade normally lagging a bit behind but in the respectable range. Coverage, however, is not part of his game and never really has been.

A one year deal for a player with Lynch's conditioning issues is ideal as he's playing for his next deal all year. Reuniting him with Vic Fangio likely doesn't hurt. The fact that Lynch just turned 25 last week is delightful

I still suspect that a draftee will play a big role in the rotation at OLB alongside Leonard Floyd but finding a high-upside rusher was essential. Lynch fits the bill.

Bears Agree to Terms with P Pat O'Donnell for 1 year, $1.5M ($??? guaranteed)
Bears: B+. It's no secret that the Bears sought an improvement at punter, pushing their offer to Bengals punter Kevin Huber up near $3M per year over a three year term. Ultimately, Huber stayed in Cincinnati, so the Bears opted for a reunion with O'Donnell.

I'm a pretty big O'Donnell fan and figured that he'd net an expensive multiyear deal this spring, so getting him back on an inexpensive one year deal is a huge win. O'Donnell isn't some camp flier; he's a legitimate NFL punter with four years of experience kicking in unfriendly Chicago. I suspect that he'll win over his new coaching staff quickly.

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Wednesday March 14 @ 9:25am

Bears Agree to Terms with OLB Sam Acho for 2 years, $7.5M ($3M guaranteed)
Bears: D-. Acho seems to be a great presence in the Bears locker room, regularly plays about half of the team's special teams snaps, and he has held his own when forced into regular duty on defense (67.3 PFF in 2017). This contract, however, is commensurate with a fringe starter and that's way too pricey for Acho. For reference, he has made the minimum in each of his three years as a Bear.

The team will be best served if he is the fourth or even fifth option at OLB this year behind Leonard Floyd and a couple/few yet-to-be-determined pass rushers. This kind of contract isn't befitting of a player in that role.

I suspect that we'll be in this space next year discussing how Acho was released because his contract outpaced his production.

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Wednesday March 14 @ 8:57am

Bears Agree to Terms with QB Chase Daniel for 2 years, $10M ($7M guaranteed)
Bears: D. Now this is terrible value. And it's even worse than meets the eye because Daniel can void the second year of the deal. All downside risk for the Bears on this one.

Daniel has become a professional backup quarterback, making hay primarily with coaches from the Andy Reid coaching tree. That's fine. It's important to have a good backup quarterback. That's obvious.

Is Daniel a good quarterback? Nobody knows. He has thrown three passes over the last three years and never even sought out a viable opportunity to start. Kudos to Daniel for making a career out of being a backup quarterback, I guess.

But for the Bears, this is a questionable allocation of resources for a team with gaping holes in its OLB rotation and additional needs on both lines. It's a big expense for a team in need of more defensive backs. All of that would cap this deal at a C. The drop to a D comes with the terms of the contract. If Daniel proves to be a great quarterback if forced into action, the Bears don't reap the benefit on the back end. If he proves to be a dud, they're saddled with the contract. I refuse to believe that Daniel had so much bargaining power that he forced such a favorable contract.

I'm sure we'll hear arguments about how Daniel is really an extra QB coach in the coming days. That's cute. It shouldn't cost nearly this much and the QB coach isn't one snap away from having the season on his shoulders.

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Tuesday March 13 @ 10:11pm

Bears Agree to Terms with CB Prince Amukamara for 3 years, $27M ($18M guaranteed)
Bears: B. Now this is good value.

Amukamara came to the Bears after a steady diet of league average seasons compiled with the Giants and Jaguars. He also came with some injury concerns. When Amukamara suffered an ankle injury during the third preseason game and missed the first two weeks of the regular season, it looked like it would be more of the same.

Nope. Instead, Amukamara reached a new level for his career, posting a strong 81.2 grade that placed him around the 70th percentile for corners and making it through the rest of the season unscathed.

He'll be 29 this season, so the effective two year term on his deal makes plenty of sense. This is also appropriate pay for a #2 corner, but considering that Amukamara's success was compiled in large part because he spent so much time matched up against the opponent's #1 receiver, he looks like a really solid addition at well below the cost of Malcolm Butler or Trumaine Johnson despite superior recent production. Amukamara's injury history keeps this from being a home run, but this is a strong deal, especially if/when the Bears extend Kyle Fuller to keep the tandem intact.

Bears Agree to Terms with WR Taylor Gabriel for 4 years, $26M ($14M guaranteed)
Bears: C-. The Bears have enjoyed recent success with speedy skill players from Abilene Christian in recent years as both Danieal Manning and Johnny Knox made significant contributions under Lovie Smith. Thus, it seems sensible enough to take a shot on Gabriel, too.

I truly dislike evaluating deals without financials fully in, but I have a pretty good feeling about where Gabriel's market ended up: I'd guess that he got somewhere between $6-7.5M per year with effectively two years guaranteed, placing him just south of the Albert Wilson contract (even though Wilson is much more of a slot man than Gabriel, who primarily lives outside). Let's evaluate it as such.

He's coming off of a rough season in which the now 27-year-old posted a poor 65.9 PFF grade. He's 5-8, 165 pounds, and he brings little as a blocker in the running game. So how in the world did Gabriel snag a long-term deal as a diminutive undrafted speed receiver?

Simple: 2016 happened. Gabriel exploded onto the scene after escaping Cleveland, joining up with the Kyle Shanahan party that propelled Atlanta to the top of the offensive charts. Gabriel ran the best screen routes in football in 2016 according to PFF, earned an 81.3 grade for his efforts, and used his 4.28 40 speed to juke Malcolm Butler to the turf in the Super Bowl. Gabriel's elite speed worked wonders in that offense.

Unfortunately, he doesn't run great routes from what I've seen and Gabriel's size likely renders him a liability whenever a running play goes to his side.

It's a worthwhile risk, especially if the deal is a glorified one year deal instead of two, but there's not tremendous value here to love.

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Tuesday March 13 @ 1:46pm

Bears Agree to Terms with K Cody Parkey for 4 years, $15M ($9M guaranteed)
Bears: C+. This one required some research but I'm happy with the result. (UPDATE 3/14/18 @ 5:26pm: the numbers came in and woof, are they hefty. Pace had to go near the top of the kicker market for Parkey. As a reminder, Parkey was available on waivers in both September 2016 and September 2017. This grade tumbles from a B+ to a C+ with these financials.)

The Bears definitely needed a new kicker, preferably a good one, and they went out into the marketplace to find an NFL leg with experience and recent success on placekicking. That's good.

Parkey enjoyed a stellar rookie season in Philadelphia in 2014, converting 32 of 36 field goals, including all four of his tries outside of 50 yards. He hurt his groin early in 2015, and when he came to camp in 2016, he found his job poached by Caleb Sturgis. He moved on to Cleveland in 2016 where he went just 8-of-13 outside of 40 yards. Zane Gonzalez took his job, so Parkey moved back home to kick for the Dolphins in 2017, recovering his field goal form en route to a 21-for-23 season, including 7-for-9 outside of 40 yards.

There are two reasons for concern. First, while Parkey's field goal numbers picked up in 2017, he missed three extra points (he missed one in his prior three seasons combined). That offsets the gains on field goals. There's also something to the much friendlier kicking confines in Miami compared to the dreaded conditions at Soldier Field: former Bears kicker Connor Barth hit at least 82.1% of his field goals in the five seasons preceding his arrival in Chicago, but he slipped to just 74.3% as a Bear. Alarmingly, while Parkey has only missed three field goals over his last 23 games, those three misses were (1) in Pittsburgh in January, (2) in Baltimore, and (3) in Kansas City in late December. The Bears better hope that Parkey can handle a chilly day, and having grown up in south Florida and played college ball at Auburn, it's a sensible concern.

Second, placekicking is only about half of what a kicker does. The other half is kickoffs and Parkey's numbers tell a confounding story in that regard. Most teams appear to prefer kickers who routinely blast the ball through the back of the endzone, generating touchbacks and keeping the opposing return game out of the equation. Hopefully that wasn't Miami's approach in 2017, as their 41.79% touchback rate was the fourth worst in the NFL. Two pieces of evidence suggest that Miami wasn't simply trying to blast balls out of the back of the endzone. First, Dolphins Special Teams Coach Darren Rizzi heaped praise on Parkey for his ability to handle multiple types of kickoffs. Second, the average starting field position for Dolphins opponents following a kickoff was their own 23, best in the NFL and better than a touchback average.

If Miami was playing around with kickoffs because Parkey lacked the kickoff power to get the ball 8-9 yards deep in he endzone, the Bears will be in trouble as he's going to have an especially rough time in Chicago. If, however, they were aggressive in trying to force returns in order to pin teams deep in their own territory, Parkey's directional and varied kicking will be a huge asset. This grade accepts the latter theory, even without the benefit of financial data on which to evaluate the agreement.

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Tuesday March 13 @ 11:34am

Bears Agree to Terms with TE Trey Burton for 4 years, $32M ($18M guaranteed)
Bears: C+. The offensive splashes don't stop! In prepping for free agency, I identified Burton as a preferred target given his age (26), recent production (75.6 PFF), and growth. Burton spent his first two NFL seasons as almost exclusively a special teamer, but he grew into 300 snaps a year over the past two seasons. Curiously, his snap counts actually dropped in the playoffs for the Eagles, where he played in just over 20% of their snaps. He caught only one playoff pass for 12 yards. Of course, he also memorably threw a fourth down touchdown in the Super bowl. That'll get you noticed.

So why the slightly above-average grade? Burton is an upside play, pure and simple. He was blocked by a top-5, in-his-prime tight end in Zach Ertz with the Eagles, so the Bears are banking on Burton's versatility (he began his Florida career as a quarterback) and athleticism (he ran a 4.62 40 at the Combine).

Here's what I wrote about Burton in proposing a 4 year, $24M deal (that would really be a glorified two year deal):

Burton is what Sims was supposed to be: a younger, up-and-coming tight end who helps solidify the position. With the Bears targeting a run-heavy attack, having multiple playable tight ends is a must. Sims was a massive disappointment in Y1 of his deal, and given his history as an undrafted free agent and a part-time player, the Bears should be able to slide Burton into Sims' cap slot with ease. At 26 and coming off of a solid 75.6 PFF season, Burton would bring that much-needed additional big-bodied receiving target who can block. A $2M signing bonus, a $2M Y1 roster bonus, a $2M Y1 salary, and a guaranteed $5M in Y2 works. Annual salaries of $6M and $7M in Y3 and Y4, respectively, all make sense. The Bears could also consider taking a run at Buccaneers restricted free agent Cameron Brate, a huge red zone target coming off of a grade 80.0 season and still only 27, but I suspect Tampa Bay will match a Brate offer when forced to decide.

Allen Robinson was a must for the Bears: they simply had to find a productive receiver or two this offseason. Burton, on the other hand, is a toy for Matt Nagy and his offensive staff. He's unlikely to find himself in regular blocking situations -- pressure's on, Adam Shaheen -- but in passing situations, the Bears can line up Burton and Shaheen, giving them a certain big-bodied mismatch in the middle of the field.

This likely renders the Orchard Lake St. Mary's reunion between Allen Robinson and Dion Sims a very short-lived one as Sims seems likely to head out the door, leaving a $666,667 cap hit behind.

I suspect that Burton's deal will have something in the neighborhood of $16M guaranteed and $3M in dead money after 2019, so the two-year audition period should hold.

(EDIT at 1:15pm: One item I forgot to mention above: Burton has regularly been a key contributor on special teams, playing at least 55% of Philadelphia's special teams snaps each year and at least 60% in each of the past three seasons. I suspect that he'll become a special teams leader in Chicago, too.)

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Tuesday March 13 @ 8:44am

Bears Agree to Terms with WR Allen Robinson for 3 years, $42M ($25M guaranteed)
Bears: B+. Wow! This is a great way to jump into free agency for the Bears. A year after being relegated to inflated contracts to flier-type, middle class free agents, the team made one of free agency's first big moves, nabbing the leaping Robinson from Jacksonville. Robinson brings elite playmaking ability, something that has been his trademark since his days at Penn State where he seemingly routinely made plays like these. That said, don't overlook his route running, the under-the-radar skill that, combined with tremendous field awareness, enabled his leaping ability to shine despite a lock of top end speed.

I wrote about Robinson in my free agency preview, figuring that the market would get too rich for him and do so quickly. As it turned out, both he and Sammy Watkins took three year deals in an effort to hit free agency again in their late primes. That played to the Bears' advantage as, even though Robinson is coming off of an ACL injury, they obtained the better player on a short deal. Watkins' health seemingly proved to get him a bump when the Chiefs gave him $48M over his truncated term, making the Robinson deal look even better.

My thoughts from last week:

There are numerous options here, but the most attractive possibility in my book is Allen Robinson (25). Like Sims, I'm biased having watching Robinson in high school and cheered for him at Penn State, but there's little denying that he'd immediately become the team's best receiver if he came aboard. He is coming off of a knee injury that cost him all of 2017 -- save for three snaps -- but he's worth the risk.

My thoughts from today: teams that take a big step do so with impact additions, be they through the draft or free agency. Robinson qualifies as an impact addition. Is this a guarantee that he meshes well with Trubisky and the Bears' offense? Of course not. Is there risk that his injury makes him hesitant and/or saps him of some of his leaping ability? Sure, there's always that risk with an injury. Does the upside here -- that Robinson steps in as the immediate number one receiver that Trubisky so desperately needs and resets the offense, propelling it to functionality and then success -- a reasonable outcome? Heck yeah it is.

If you're still looking for reasons to hope, I'd encourage you to skim through this piece by Pro Football Focus. The TL;DR version: Blake Bortles regressed horribly in 2016 and it harmed Robinson's production in a major way. By way of example, iBortles threw Robinson 45 go routes in 2015, 25 of which were catchable. In 2016? Robinson got nearly the same number of targets on the go -- 42 -- but only 10 (10!) of them were catchable. Robinson converted all but one catchable go each year.

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Monday March 12 @ 8:43pm

Bears Tender RFA CB Bryce Callahan at Original Round ($1.907M)
Bears: D. This move isn't as unforgivable as the Meredith decision, but it still looks bad and confusing. Callahan comes with injury woes, but he's also coming off of a season in which he appeared in 12 games, a career high. He's only 26 and his 82.9 PFF grade was 31st among qualifying cornerbacks, a very strong showing. Callahan's 512 defensive snaps trailed Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara by a good distance, but they also outpaced fourth place Marcus Cooper by more than double. He's in his prime. He knows the defense. He produced...yet he also wasn't worthy of the second round tender?

I'm giving Pace a hair more slack on Callahan than I did on Meredith given Callahan robust injury history in contrast to Meredith's single catastrophic injury. Still, for a team light on assets, risking the loss of one of them over just $1M -- again -- strikes me as bizarre and wasteful.

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Monday March 12 @ 1:00pm

Bears Tender RFA WR Cameron Meredith at Original Round ($1.907M)
Bears: F. This was one of the easiest moves of the offseason and Pace somehow still screwed it up. The second round tender costs an additional $1M but effectively locks Meredith up for the coming season. The original round tender leaves the Bears at the mercy of the marketplace.

I fully appreciate that I lack access to Meredith's medical file and he may be worse off physically than the public knows. That said, the risk here that some team in need of receiving help and with oodles of cap space -- like the 49ers -- throws a hefty signing bonus and some lofty future base salaries at Meredith to see what happens. The Bears would still be able to keep him, to be sure, but they'd be stuck paying a significantly increased price to do so and they'd potential add dead money to the cap in a future year.

This was such an easy move to get right, yet Pace screwed it up.

Bears Tender RFA WR Josh Bellamy at Original Round ($1.907M)
Bears: D+. This seems a little rich for a gunner, but Bellamy is adept on special teams and this won't have much impact on the team's cap situation. It'll be especially interesting to see if another team makes a play at Bellamy to shore up their own special teams and, if that happens, whether Pace matches.

Bears Agree to Terms with OT Bradley Sowell for 2 years, $3M ($600K guaranteed)
Bears: C. It's hard to believe that the Bears made a significant financial commitment to Sowell given his mediocre play in limited snaps, especially considering that he's at an age (29) where improvement is nearly out of the question. Still, it's nice to take care of some of your own talent prior to the opening of free agency. Provided that this isn't for more than $3M total over two years, it's fine.

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*I do, however, have this little beauty from an email sent on March 24, 2017:

We haven't gotten to the worst part(s): Marcus Cooper, Markus Wheaton, Christian Jones, and Marcus Cooper again. If cap space evaporated after each season, I could understand throwing it at crappy players just to see what happens. But it doesn't. NFL cap space remains an asset given a club's ability to roll it over, and huge swaths of cap space enable teams to make creative moves like the Browns did with their MLB-inspired Osweiler deal. Teams with talent deficiencies need to be creative to improve their lot. Instead, Pace threw a big ol' pile of money at bit players. Who were the Bears competing with for Wheaton and Jones? That's $5.67M of net cap space (factoring in that they'd spend at least $540K replacing them with minimum-salaried rookies). Cooper was available for a conditional seventh round pick just six months ago. He made two tackles in 2015. How in the hell did he get $8M guaranteed?

Grading NFL Free Agency Moves

Given the immensity of this March's free agency period for the fortunes of the Bears franchise -- it's entirely possible that a handful of the players added in the coming week will either make or break Ryan Pace's tenure with the club -- I'm even more plugged into free agency than normal. Given the circumstances, I've done a good bit of legwork on the players available and the teams that figure to be big-time players.

Accordingly, I'm going to create this running post to analyze significant (and sometimes not so significant) free agent moves and trades made during this early free agency period. I'll post Bears moves in a separate piece as I have in previous years.

Important reminder: no grade inflation here! A "C" is average. A "D" is below average. An "F" is failing. A "B" is above-average. An "A" is peak value.

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Thursday April 12 @ 9:03pm

Saints Sign WR Cam Meredith for 2 years, $9.6M ($5.4M guaranteed)
Saints: B. I addressed this deal from the Bears' perspective elsewhere (note: it wasn't pretty), so it's unsurprising that I like this for the Saints. Meredith is a strong risk to take, a productive player coming off of a rough injury but one that was suffered in the preseason, offering additional recovery time. (The Saints really crushed this offseason in my eyes: I loved the deals for Brees and Okafor and really liked the deals for Meredith and Davis)

Panthers Sign CB Ross Cockrell for 2 years, $6.8M ($??? guaranteed)
Panthers: A-. Carolina negated Bashaud Breeland's deal due to a foot infection, but they came out even better when Cockrell fell into their laps on this modest deal. The whole thing could be guaranteed and it'd get a strong grade for a player coming off of a strong platform year in Buffalo (81.6 PFF).

Browns Sign CB E.J. Gaines for 1 year, $4M ($1.4M guaranteed)
Browns: A. Cleveland continues its run of "A" or "F" moves. This one is easy: Gaines was a star last year (86.6 PFF) and he just turned 26. I only wish Cleveland had bought more control.

Jaguars Sign WR Donte Moncrief for 1 year, $9.6M ($9.6M guaranteed)
Jaguars: F. A leading contender for worst deal of 2018, this signing is painful. The Jaguars let Aaron Colvin walk in free agency presumably due to concerns about his price. They also moved on from Allen Hurns and his one-year, $7M deal. Both moves are understandable in a vacuum. But as part of an offseason in which the club gave Moncrief nearly $10M, they're excruciating for Jacksonville fans. Moncrief was horrendous in 2017 (49.1 PFF). He has missed 11 games over the last two seasons. He had 56 catches for 698 yards in 2017, numbers that look solid and even good considering that Andrew Luck didn't throw him a pass all year...but they look a lot different when you realize that those are his aggregate totals from 2017 when combined with 2016. This contract is insane.

Raiders Sign ILB Tahir Whitehead for 3 years, $19M ($6.275M guaranteed)
Raiders: B+. I like these kinds of deals. Whitehead really emerged for the Lions in 2017 (79.6 PFF), and this deal pays him for that level of production. Why is it nice? First, many ILBs got paid quite a bit more this year. Second, Whitehead only has guarantees in Y1 in the event that his 2017 was a fluke. Good news for Oakland.

Jaguars Sign TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins for 2 years, $10M ($4M guaranteed)
Jaguars: D-. Seferian-Jenkins has the pedigree and athleticism to be good at football, but he's been consistently bad instead. Sure, he's only 25, but he's coming off of arguably his best year in 2017. How did he do? A 47.7 grade. And he'll be tough to cut with $1.605M of dead money in 2019. Bad deal.

Jets Sign C Spencer Long for 4 years, $27M ($6M guaranteed)
Jets: C-. Long isn't good (56.0 PFF), but this is truly a one-year deal with no dead money or guarantees beyond Y1. If the Jets catch lightning in a bottle, great! If not, they move on with no harm.

Buccaneers Sign DE Vinny Curry for 3 years, $23M ($11.5M guaranteed)
Buccaneers: A. Awesome deal for Tampa. Curry got caught in a Philadelphia cap crunch and Tampa was there to be the beneficiary, scooping up the highly-productive 30-year-old (84.8 PFF) on a deal that only guarantees money in Y1.

Cardinals Sign G Justin Pugh for 5 years, $45.025M ($13M guaranteed)
Cardinals: D. Pugh was a good and productive guard for a few years. But then 2017 happened and Pugh completely flopped as a right tackle (52.4 PFF). He's going to be 28 in August and his $10M signing bonus will make it nearly impossible to cut him prior to 2021. The Cardinals are paying Pugh as if only 2014-16 happened and/or as if Pugh was good in 2017. It's a bizarrely significant commitment.

Texans Sign CB Tyrann Mathieu for 1 year, $7M ($6.5M guaranteed)
Texans: A. Mathieu was cut loose from Arizona because of his contract and some injury issues, not because of his general production. Now, the Texans get a motivated 26-year-old coming off of a fine season (77.0 PFF) in a contract year. It doesn't get better than that.

Buccaneers Sign C Ryan Jensen for 4 years, $42M ($22M guaranteed)
Buccaneers: D-. Jensen is an average center (74.9 PFF) being paid like a superstar. The first two years of his deal are fully guaranteed with no dead money after that second year. That's the only thing that keeps this from being an F.

Patriots Sign OLB Adrian Clayborn for 2 years, $10M ($5.5M guaranteed)
Patriots: C+. Clayborn looked overwhelmingly likely to be overpaid by virtue of his six-sack performance against the Cowboys. Instead, the market overreacted and a plus 30-year-old coming off of a great season (85.5 PFF) got a small guarantee.

Ravens Sign WR Michael Crabtree for 3 years, $21M ($8M guaranteed)
Ravens: D. Crabtree used to be good and even possibly really good, but this deal is all about Baltimore being desperate, throwing big money at a 30-year-old receiver coming off of a subpar season (71.4 PFF).

Raiders Sign CB Rashaan Melvin for 1 year, $5.5M ($4.85M guaranteed)
Raiders: B+. Melvin was excellent for Indianapolis in 2017 (85.7 PFF) and he's young enough at 28 to produce again in 2018. Great move by Oakland.

Vikings Sign DE Sheldon Richardson for 1 year, $8M ($7.8M guaranteed)
Vikings: B+. Minnesota getting Richardson on a ring-chasing deal is a huge win for them.

Saints Sign DE Alex Okafor for 2 years, $6.7875M ($1.5M guaranteed)
Saints: A. One of my favorite deals of the offseason. Okafor is coming off of an Achilles tear, but somehow this is still a massive value for New Orleans. Okafor is only 27 and coming off of a huge year in 2017 (84.7 PFF). The market was seriously limited for edge defenders, yet Okafor came back on wildly understated terms. Wow!

Redskins Sign ILB Zach Brown for 3 years, $24M ($5.5M guaranteed)
Redskins: D-. This is some kind of bad deal. Brown was terrible in 2017 (61.8 PFF) and he's already 28, so it's not as if we can expect big improvement in the future. I don't get it.

Saints Sign ILB Demario Davis for 3 years, $24M ($16M guaranteed)
Saints: B. That guarantee is a nice haul for Davis. But in an offseason where every starting-caliber ILB got $8M+, Davis is the deal that I like the best because, well, I like Davis the best. He was stellar in 2017 (87.3 PFF) and he plays a position where he should be highly productive into his early 30s given the mental/leadership demands.

Raiders Sign WR Jordy Nelson for 2 years, $14.2M ($6.4M guaranteed)
Raiders: D-. What? Nelson was decently productive in his limited action in 2017 (74.9 PFF), but he's 33 and coming off of a barrage of injuries. This is really only a one-year deal (no dead money in 2019), but it still doesn't make sense.

Panthers Sign DT Dontari Poe for 3 years, $27M ($10.8M guaranteed)
Panthers: B-. The Poe signing on its own is a nice deal: Poe comes with a great pedigree, is close enough to his prime to produce (28), and played wonderfully in 2017 (81.5 PFF). Factoring in that Poe is a huge upgrade over Star Lotulelei and came to Carolina on a preferable contract, this has been a nice set of transactions for the team.

Titans Re-Sign DE DaQuan Jones for 3 years, $21M ($14M guaranteed)
Titans: B-. I'm solidly biased in favor of Jones after watching his splendid collegiate career at Penn State, but trying to turn that bias off, this is still a good deal for Jones. He's 26, coming off of a strong year (80.8 PFF), plays an important spot in the 3-4, and I like times finding continuity along their defensive line.

Browns Sign CB T.J. Carrie for 4 years, $31M ($8M guaranteed)
Browns: A. This is precisely the type of deal that the Browns should be hammering. Carrie was splendid in 2017 (84.3 PFF), he'll be just 28 in 2018, and they can cut him loose with $2.7M of dead money after 2018. If he hits, they've got a near-star on a good deal. If not, oh well, it's only money.

Bills Sign OLB Trent Murphy for 3 years, $22.5M ($7.875M guaranteed)
Bills: B. I really like this deal for Buffalo. Murphy carries plenty of risk after suffering a catastrophic knee injury last August in which he tore both his ACL and MCL. But doggone it, he was a highly productive, every-down edge defender for years before that injury and he'll be just 27 this year. There's plenty of reason to see lots of productivity in his future and the risk is relatively meager with the Bills able to get out of the deal for $3.5M of dead money after 2018.

Saints Sign CB Patrick Robinson for 4 years, $20M ($6M guaranteed)
Saints: C+. Robinson was spectacular in 2017 (89.8 PFF), a rare late-career breakout for a corner entering his 30s. He'll turn 31 right before the 2018 season begins, but I like this risk for the Saints. They can get out of the deal with $3.75M of dead money after Y1, but if Robinson continues to succeed, they'll possess him on an under-market deal. It's a strong move.

Giants Sign LT Nate Solder for 4 years, $62M ($34.8M guaranteed)
Giants: D+. Solder just turned 30 and is coming off of a decent -- but not great -- season (75.7 PFF), so this is a monstrous guarantee. He'll still have $8M of dead cap money on his deal for the 2020 season. However, he enjoyed a strong run with the Patriots prior to 2017, so it's possible that the Giants are going to be fine on this deal. Nevertheless, they get dinged a bit more given that they're in a strange spot in terms of their competitive window.

Texans Sign G Zach Fulton for 4 years, $28M ($13M guaranteed)
Texans: F+. The first F+ of free agency. Fulton just isn't good (68.8 PFF) and he's completely locked in for two years on this deal. He can be cut after 2019 with no cap hit and he's still young enough (26) to plausibly kick up near the average tier, but Fulton is being paid as a top-of-the-line guard with a multi-year guarantee. Gross.

Eagles Sign LB Nigel Bradham for 5 years, $40M ($6M guaranteed)
Eagles: B. The Bradham deal likely takes the cake for most deceptive deal this offseason. The productive, late-prime player (80.6 PFF, 29 years old) got a glorified one-year deal that comes with a cap hit of just $2M in 2018. If he's productive again next year, the hit jumps to $9M in 2019 with just $4M in dead money if he's cut after this upcoming season. That's quite the team-friendly deal.

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Sunday March 25 @ 9:45am

Jaguars Sign CB D.J. Hayden for 3 years, $19M ($9.45M guaranteed)
Jaguars: F. The Jaguars really missed the boat here. It's true that Hayden has been minimally better in the slot -- where he figures to play in Jacksonville -- than he has been outside, but entering 2017, his slot passer rating allowed (101.2) was only a hair better than it was outside (106.4). It was terrible either way. Hayden made the move from Oakland to Detroit and dropped a dud with a 50.7 grade. He's 28 this year. The Jaguars effectively guaranteed two years of his deal. There's no redeeming this move. They really screwed up their slot CB spot and should've found a couple extra million to keep Aaron Colvin around, who also got a glorified two-year deal.

49ers Sign RB Jerick McKinnon for 4 years, $30M ($12M guaranteed)
49ers: C+. The Niners have been pilloried all over he internet for this one, but I'm of the opinion that this is a plenty reasonable deal. McKinnon didn't stand out all that much in previous years, but he erupted in 2017 at 25 (84.6 PFF), especially catching passes out of the backfield, a skill that isn't particularly dependent on his offensive line. The Niners almost certainly know that they need to pair Jimmy Garoppolo with a strong pass-catching back, and McKinnon fits the bill. Plus, this is a glorified one-year deal: if they walk away after 2018, he leaves just $1.5M in dead money on their cap. If the deal is a smashing success, they keep McKinnon at less than half of his market rate in 2019 and at below-market rates in 2020 and 2021. Solid.

Browns Sign RB Carlos Hyde for 3 years, $15.25M ($16M guaranteed)
Browns: F. What are the Browns possibly thinking? Hyde began his career with strong results behind a strong San Francisco offensive line, but he slipped from a career high grade in 2015 (81.8) to an average grade in 2016 (73.2) and then tumbled to a putrid 51.6 in 2017. Hyde should've been looking at a one-year prove-it deal. Instead, the Browns swooped in with a deal that includes $2.333M in dead money if he is released after 2018. Insane.

Jets Sign ILB Avery Williamson for 3 years, $22.5M ($16M guaranteed)
Jets: B+. Williamson looked like a nice grab for the Jets at first glance. But upon further examination, he's a really nice get. Williamson posted an average grade as a 24-year-old third year player in 2016 (76.5 PFF), but he really emerged in his walk year as a key part of the Tennessee defense, posting a near-elite grade (85.6) in the middle of the unit. For a Jets team that figures to lean heavily on its defense when they employ a young quarterback, Williamson was a must.

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Tuesday March 13 @ 11:00pm

Titans Agree to Terms with G Josh Kline for 4 years, $26M ($9.25M guaranteed)
Titans: C-. Kline is expected to score in the $7-8M range on a multi-year deal. He's already 28 and coming off of a roughly average season (75.8 PFF). He's not a bad guy to retain for Tennessee, but the price is too high.

Titans Agree to Terms with RB Dion Lewis for 4 years, $20M ($11.5M guaranteed)
Titans: C. This is a serious risk for the Titans. Lewis missed all of 2013, couldn't find a job in 2014, missed half of 2015 waiting for a gig, and missed half of 2016 with injury. Lewis was a star at Pitt, but his NFL career was basically nothing through 2016.

But if you're going to take a risk, make sure it's for a player coming off of an elite season. That's Lewis, too, following his elite 87.2 grade. Does that make this a good move? No. But it keeps it from being a bad one.

Ravens Agree to Terms with WR Ryan Grant for 4 years, $29M ($14.5M guaranteed)
Ravens: D-. Woah boy. This one reeks. Grant peaked with a 72.9 PFF grade in 2017, but hadn't produced a grade above 51.1 in his first three years. He was a true one shot wonder...and his shot wasn't even that good.

Adding insult to injury: apparently this deal includes a $10M signing bonus, meaning that Grant is overwhelmingly likely to leave a significant chunk of dead money behind when he gets cut. That's a whiff.

Packers Agree to Terms with DE Muhammad Wilkerson for 1 year, $5M ($5M guaranteed)
Packers: A. This one hurts. Wilkerson was every 3-4 team's ideal flier this offseason after mailing it in for a year or two in New York...supposedly. In reality, Wilkerson turned in a 79.8 grade in 2017. If he only plays to that level again, this is a strong deal for the Packers. If he plays close to his 2011-15 upside, this is a grand slam.

Stinkin' Packers.

Jets Agree to Terms with QB Teddy Bridgewater for 1 year, $5M ($5M guaranteed)
Jets: A-. I have questions in light of this deal (are these actually the financial terms? has Bridgewater really fallen this far? Why sign McCown and Bridgewater on the same day?), but taken on its own, getting a player with Bridgewater's pedigree and recent NFL success for such a low commitment is a no-brainer.

Jets Agree to Terms with CB Trumaine Johnson for 5 years, $72.5M ($34M guaranteed)
Jets: C-. Terms aren't in yet, but reports have Johnson scoring $15M per year. This deal is almost certainly for four or five years, so let's evaluate it as such.

That's a lot of money for a player whose play slipped in 2017 (74.2 PFF) and who is now 28.

On the other hand, Johnson has prototype size (6-2, 205 pounds) and many years of plus production. It's a solid gamble for the Jets to take.

Lions Agree to Terms with CB Nevin Lawson for 2 years, $9.2M ($4.55M guaranteed)
Lions: D+. It's probably a glorified one year deal. It better be. Lawson was solid in 2016 with a 77.1 grade in full-time duty, so surely this deal looks good, right? No. In 2017, Lawson was healthy all year but relegated to reserve duty. The Lions rightly decided that they needed an upgrade, so they made a big play for Malcolm Butler...but struck out. Instead of formulating a new plan, they seemingly panic resigned Lawson.

Browns Agree to Terms with RT Chris Hubbard for 5 years, $37.5M ($18M guaranteed)
Browns: D-. Huh? Hubbard played to a low-average grade in limited snaps as a reserve in 2016 (71.7 PFF), but given a longer look of 780 snaps in 2017, he affirmed that he is best served as a swing tackle (69.6 PFF). It's not just that the Browns gave Hubbard an eye-popping financial total; it's much more that the alarming guarantee locks him into a multi-year look. Yeesh.

Titans Agree to Terms with CB Malcolm Butler for 5 years, $61M ($30M guaranteed)
Titans: C-. Butler is a really good player, so this move makes sense in that regard. Butler also came in around the very top of the free agent market despite a rather ho-hum season by his recent standards (79.0 PFF) and the fact that he's an older free agent (28). It's tough not to like what he has done in the past and it's always fair to wonder what's going on in Bill Belichik's head, but we're also talking about a player who got benched for the Super Bowl. Something is fishy here.

Rams Agree to Terms with CB Nickell Robey-Coleman for 3 years, $15.75M ($8M guaranteed)
Rams: A. How in the world did this deal happen? The Bills inexplicably cut Robey-Coleman last March after he emerged as a viable slot corner, then he shined brightly in his lone year in Los Angeles (84.9 PFF), continuing his ascent. His reward? One year's worth of Trumaine Johnson money...spread over three years. Brilliant move by the Rams.

Browns Agree to Terms with DE Chris Smith for 3 years, $14M ($4.5M guaranteed)
Browns: C-. The Browns are using their ample cap space in search of viable starters. Smith fits the bill as a below-average rusher from Cincinnati. He's only 26 and was drafted at #159 overall in 2014, so there could be something here.

It's tough to get excited -- I'd rather see the Browns trying to reclaim some former elite athlete -- but it's tough to be upset with what is almost surely a glorified one year deal.

Packers Agree to Terms with TE Jimmy Graham for 3 years, $30M ($11M guaranteed)
Packers: D+. Initial rumors pegged Graham's annual price tag in the neighborhood of $9-10M per year, so we'll use that as a baseline for evaluation.

At that price point, this deal is ludicrous. Graham comes with strong red zone skills thanks to his leaping ability and he has big name recognition. Those appear to be his primary attributes. In spite of the former fueling 10 touchdown grabs in 2017, Graham graded out at a putrid 54.1 in 2017. To be fair, Graham isn't that far removed from a strong 85.1 grade in 2016. Then again, he's also not that far removed from a knee injury that cost him half of the 2015 season.

It's entirely possible that Aaron Rodgers will toss 40 touchdowns to Graham over the life of this contract, but it's also possible that Graham's down-up-down tenure in Seattle and especially Seattle's decision not to apply the franchise tag to Graham are more telling predictors of his tenure to come in Green Bay.

Panthers Agree to Terms with CB Bashaud Breeland for 3 years, $24M ($11M guaranteed)
Panthers: C+. Breeland is a solid pickup for Carolina. He played well in his walk year (79.0 PFF) and quite well as a sophomore in 2015 (80.5), but a disastrous year in the middle (48.0) likely hurt his value, especially when he was eaten alive on the outside. He has consistently played much better in the slot, so it will be interesting to see if Carolina attempts to funnel his snaps to that spot on the defense.

Jets Agree to Terms with QB Josh McCown for 1 year, $10M ($10M guaranteed)
Jets: C. The Jets could do much worse than bringing back McCown to hold the keys for another year while they look for a future franchise quarterback. They also could've done much better with the likes of AJ McCarron and Teddy Bridgewater offering much more long-term upside.

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Tuesday March 13 @ 4:01pm

Texans Agree to Terms with CB Aaron Colvin for 4 years, $34M ($18M guaranteed)
Texans: B. I'm a big Colvin fan. He had an excellent pedigree before a Senior Bowl injury dropped him to the fourth round in the draft. From there, he worked his way into the Jacksonville rotation and reached a new peak in 2017, forming an elite trio with Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Ironically, he's moving to Houston to fill the hole that Bouye's departure created a year ago.

Will he be overmatched on the outside after excelling in the slot? Who knows? We do know that Colvin played splendidly in the slot, so the fall back option is a strong one in an era where the nickel is the new base defense.

Jaguars Agree to Terms with WR Marqise Lee for 4 years, $38M ($18.5M guaranteed)
Jaguars: C+. Solid deal. Lee began his career living in the trainer's room due to lingering hamstring injuries, but he has missed just two games in the last two years, suggesting that he has turned a corner with his health. While he hasn't produced like a #1 option and likely never will, Lee's production (77.1 PFF), age (26), and pedigree (39th overall pick in 2014) all point to a solid #2 option. Now his contract matches that characterization.

Cardinals Agree to Terms with QB Sam Bradford for 1 year, $20M ($15M guaranteed)
Cardinals: D-. I...I...I just don't understand.

Arizona looks more and more like a rebuilding team every day, yet here they are, pouring $20M into a bottom-quartile quarterback. I can't wrap my head around it. If Arizona is rebuilding, a subpar veteran QB makes some sense but certainly not at this price point. If Arizona is going for it, Bradford makes no sense as an acquisition: he has literally been replaced everywhere he has played with his prior team enjoying massive leaps in productivity within a year. Bradford appears to be making his name power work. Kudos to him...and shrugs to the Arizona front office.

Dolphins Agree to Terms with WR Danny Amendola for 2 years, $12M ($8.25M guaranteed)
Dolphins: B+. Amendola isn't going to make it through the full season healthy. Everybody, including Dolphins brass, knows this. Yet this is still a strong addition.

Between Kenny Stills, the newly acquired Albert Wilson, and DeVante Parker, Miami has plenty of talented receivers but also a group that struggled in the absence of Ryan Tannehill in 2017. The franchise desperately needs Stills and Parker, in particular, to regain their form. Amendola should push them hard, stealing snaps if the other receivers aren't producing. And oh yeah: Amendola earned a strong grade (80.1) for 2017. There's plenty left in the tank. Strong move.

Redskins Agree to Terms with WR Paul Richardson for 5 years, $40M ($20M guaranteed)
Redskins: C-. Richardson is a solid receiving option. His strong PFF grade in 2016 (77.3) dropped somewhat when pushed into a bigger role in 2017 (72.4), something that should concern a team handing him cash on par with a starting gig. Richardson also suffered back-to-back significant injuries with an ACL tear in late 2014 and a hamstring injury upon his return in 2015.

Nevertheless, he remains young and fast. That can work in just about any offense. With receiver prices skyrocketing across the league this offseason, this is a mostly reasonable deal, if a bit pricey.

Lions Agree to Terms with OLB Devon Kennard for 3 years, $18.75M ($7.5M guaranteed)
Lions: B+. This is a strong signing for Detroit. Kennard is coming off a bit of a down season in 2017 (71.0 PFF), but that came on the heels of a very strong 2016 campaign (79.1 PFF). Kennard may not have extreme prowess in either run support or pass rushing, but he's a good player in both facets of the game and one of the league's most reliable tacklers, routinely grading with elite marks in that regard. Finding a steady player to stick in the linebacking corps is key as the Lions presumably watch Paul Worrilow and Tahir Whitehead walk in free agency and try to groom Jarrad Davis after a nightmarish rookie year (46.1 PFF).

Vikings Agree to Terms with QB Kirk Cousins for 3 years, $84M ($84M guaranteed)
Vikings: C. This is a weird deal to evaluate. On one hand, Cousins has been consistently above average in Washington, playing for different offenses and with a supporting cast that has turned over. He's in his prime.

On the other hand, Minnesota found lightning in a bottle with Case Keenum whose 2017 season was as productive as any year Cousins has had.

I understand the value of buying more certainty in the form of Cousins. That makes sense. On the other hand, Minnesota obtained no potential back-end value on the deal as Cousins was able to demand and secure a fully-guaranteed deal. This deal should work out fine for both parties, but there's no value to be had living at the top of the market, hence the average grade.

49ers Agree to Terms with C Weston Richburg for 5 years, $47.5M ($16.5M guaranteed)
49ers: D+. Richburg looked like something of a free agent land mine to me -- I didn't even include him on my Bears free agency preview despite their need for an interior lineman -- given his injury history and declining play in recent years: he exploded onto the scene as a sophomore in 2015 with an 87.2 grade and followed up with a strong 82.0 grade in 2016. This year, he stumbled to a 71.3 and missed most of the season with a concussion.

He has regularly been a much better pass blocker than a run blocker, so San Francisco shouldn't get killed for this deal as they move toward a more pass-happy offense with Jimmy Garoppolo in tow. But this is nevertheless likely to be an overpay when the dollars get reported.

Dophins Agree to Terms with WR Albert Wilson for 3 years, $24M ($??? guaranteed)
Dolphins: B+. The guarantee here will be interesting as it figures to dictate whether this is a glorified one or two year deal. Regardless, it's a nice move for a Miami team that was unwilling to pony up for Jarvis Landry. Wilson was elite at making defenders miss tackles in 2017, and he's an ascending player (77.7 PFF) entering his prime. While he's undersized at 5'9", he's also 200 pounds. Plus, New England never seems to struggle with undersized receivers who run good routes and Wilson will learn from one of the best with Julian Edelman joining him in teal.

Bills Agree to Terms with DT Star Lotulelei for 5 years, $50M ($18.5M guaranteed)
Bills: F. We don't need to see the terms to evaluate this deal: if Lotulelei got a nominal five year deal, he got north of $10M guaranteed and probably more like $20M. That's laughable.

He was a premium talent coming out of Utah and produced well as a rookie (81.3) and again as a sophomore (80.4). But the wheels completely fell off for him over the last couple of years as he bottomed out at 46.9 in 2016 before "recovering" to 49.5 in 2017. Lotulelei got a big chunk of the snaps in 2016, but it went so poorly that he was relegated to just over half of Carolina's defensive snaps in 2017 despite playing in every game both seasons. This is just terrible.

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Tuesday March 13 @ 9:17am

Chiefs Agree to Terms with ILB Anthony Hitchens for 5 years, $45M ($21.29M guaranteed)
Chiefs: C. This deal has been reported as being for approximately $9M per year, so we'll evaluate it as such, assuming that this is a glorified two-year deal.

That's a lot to play for a part-time player. Hitchens has played between 50% and 55% of Dallas' snaps for each of his four years as a professional. Hitchens graded out as a scrub in each of his first two seasons before improving as a junior and posting a strong 80.8 grade last year. He'll be 26 in 2017, so Kansas City is buying his prime given his ascension.

I like it when teams buy improving players. On the other hand, $9M per year (or thereabouts) is a hefty sum for a 3-4 inside linebacker.

Jaguars Agree to Terms with OG Andrew Norwell for 5 years, $66.5M ($30M guaranteed)
Jaguars: B+. Contrary to popular belief, the Jags do not have salary cap issues. They've got plenty of space and can make more of it rather easily if need be. Well, need officially be.

Norwell was the premier offensive lineman on the market this March and Jacksonville did well to bring him in on what looks exactly like a market-price deal. After years of ponying up over-the-top cash to lure free agents south, the Jacksonville appears to have been a preferred destination for Norwell, who likely spurned overtures from the sexier markets of New York (Giants) and the Bay Area (49ers) to join a contender. Getting a star player (88.8 PFF) in his prime (26) on a glorified two or three year deal makes sense for every team but it's especially true for Jacksonville who got positively putrid guard play from Patrick Omameh (53.6 PFF) and A.J. Cann (52.5 PFF) last year. Norwell gets the chance to form an elite unit up front with star center Brandon Linder (84.7 PFF), RT Jeremy Parnell (79.0 PFF) and project LT Cam Robinson (37.6 PFF).

For a team rolling with Blake Bortles for the foreseeable future, having an elite line paired with an elite back in Leonard Fournette makes tons of sense.

Saints Agree to Terms with QB Drew Brees for 2 years, $50M ($27M guaranteed)
Saints: C. They didn't screw it up. (UPDATED 3/13/18 with financials - they got a hefty discount, too)

Chiefs Agree to Terms with WR Sammy Watkins for 3 years, $48M ($30M guaranteed)
Chiefs: C-. Woah. That's a lot of dough for Watkins. The Allen Robinson deal also proved quite a bit pricier than expected -- turns out it's nice to hit free agency at 24! -- but Watkins has kicked that up a notch. The Chiefs clearly wanted a top option to pair with Patrick Mahomes and the combination of Mahomes' arm strength and Watkins' big-play ability must have been enticing. Watkins is young and despite middling production to date, I like the upside here.

So why the C-? The Chiefs are in a tighter cap spot than most big spenders in free agency and Watkins is a really risky buy for them. Most folks talked about Robinson coming off of a major injury, and while that's true, Watkins is the player with the lengthier and more concerning injury ledger. He has only played a full slate of games once (as a rookie in 2014) and his injury history is littered with concerning nuggets, such as:

• Hip labrum surgery following 2014;
• Calf strain in 2015 that cost him two games;
• Ankle sprain in 2015 that cost him two games;
• Broken foot in 2016 that cost him eight games; and
• Additional follow-up surgery on same broken foot following 2016 season.

Watkins may have suffered a concussion during the 2017 season, but he otherwise made it through unscathed and didn't miss any games, save for a Week 17 breather when the Rams rested their starters. Still, the risk here is significant and, in my eyes, the upside isn't as high as it is with Robinson.

Broncos Agree to Terms with QB Case Keenum for 2 years, $36M ($25M guaranteed)
Broncos: C. Those terms aren't terribly detailed right now. All we know at this point is that Keenum has agreed to terms with Denver and will be heading there for something in the neighborhood of $18-20M per year. I'm evaluating this deal as if it is a glorified two-year deal with approximately $40M guaranteed.

At that price point, this makes good sense. Normally I lambaste teams for giving big money to players who were previously available on cheap deals within the last year, but, well, Keenum is a quarterback. The rules simply don't apply in this facet of the marketplace.

Keenum is likely being signed to be a bridge quarterback to whomever Denver drafts with the fifth pick in April's draft. Thing is, unlike other bridge quarterbacks in the vein of Josh McCown or, gulp, Mike Glennon, Keenum is coming off of an absolutely fabulous season in which he posted a sparkling 85.3 PFF grade and he's only 30, middle aged in quarterback years. Keenum also comes with a prolific background at the collegiate level, for whatever that's worth eight years later. In Denver's dream scenario, Keenum posts prodigious numbers for two years and they enter the 2020 offseason trying to figure out if they should double down on Keenum and trade Darnold/Rosen/Allen/Mayfield or if it's time to hand he kiddo the reins, flipping Keenum for some tasty draft assets. If, on the other hand, the Keenum deal goes south, they likely have an overpriced backup in 2019 and they're out of the deal following that season with <$5M in dead cap space for 2020. Perfectly fine.

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Monday March 12 @ 8:55pm

Bills Trade LT Cordy Glenn, 1st round pick (#21), and 5th round pick (#158) to Bengals for 1st round pick (#12) and 6th round pick (#187)
Bills: B-. Buffalo handed Glenn a five year, $60M deal before the 2016 season, securing their left tackle for the long haul. Glenn produced a strong 82.8 PFF grade that year, but he did miss five games due to injury. 2017 was an unmitigated disaster with Glenn playing just 275 snaps to the tune of a below-average 68.1 grade. With a looming $8.5M guarantee in the coming week, Buffalo had a choice to make: keep Glenn and hope for the best, or move on from home, eating $9.6M in dead cap space attributable to his signing bonus. By trading Tyrod Taylor this week, the Bills seem to have announced their intention to rebuild the offense, seemingly committing themselves to punting Glenn. This move does leave a $9.6M stinkbomb on their cap sheet, but at least it disappears after this year. Incredibly, for their troubles, Buffalo acquired net draft capital of 2.5 points (20.1 minus 17.6), equivalent to a mid 5th round pick. The Glenn contract aged terribly and quickly so, but Buffalo made the best of a bad situation in this deal.
Bengals: C-. Despite preferring this deal for Buffalo, it's not a disaster for Cincinnati. By virtue of leaving Glenn's signing bonus in Buffalo, the Bengals get Glenn on a one year, $11.25M deal. If he flops, they have no dead money going forward. If Glenn does return to form, they control him for $9.25M in 2019 and $9.5M in 2020, both years at well under market rates. It's a good risk to take. I don't love that Cincinnati had to give away some draft capital to take the risk, but it's certainly justifiable.

Buccaneers Re-Sign TE Cameron Brate for 6 years, $41M ($18M guaranteed)
Buccaneers: D+. This is the first case this offseason where I really like the player (80.0 PFF) but the contract is so onerous as to sour the deal. Much has been made of Brate's red zone prowess and understandably so: he's a big target and Jameis Winston likes throwing him the deal. On the other hand...

• Tampa Bay just invested a first-round pick in O.J. Howard, whose usage kicked up notably in the second half;
• Brate was an undrafted rookie;
• Brate will be 27 in 2018, so he's not exactly the youngest free agent; and
• Brate's snap rate actually decreased in the second half of the season: he played 57.6% of Tampa's snaps in the first half but just 49.6% in the second half.

I'm perplexed. This is a huge deal for a good player but it could look really ugly by November, even on a team where two tight end sets are common.

Ravens Re-Sign LG James Hurst for 4 years, $17.5M ($8M guaranteed)
Ravens: D-. What? Huh? Hurst was a sub-replacement level player in 2017 (42.4 PFF) while playing all 1,085 Baltimore snaps. He'll be just 26 next year, but that type of grade doesn't happen by accident. I have no idea what the Ravens are thinking. This is probably a glorified two-year deal, not just a one-year deal, so they get dinged a little extra for that, even if the deal doesn't feature big-time money.

Seahawks Re-Sign S Bradley McDougald for 3 years, $13.95M ($5.5M guaranteed)
Seahawks: C+. I'm grading this deal as if its a glorified one-year deal for McDougald. He worked out beautifully as a cheap signing last year, filling in for Kam Chancellor. With Chancellor's career looking wobbly, bringing back the 27-year-old who performed well (77.3 PFF) on a modest deal makes sense, even if he ultimately gets kicked to the bench. It's possible that 2017 was a mirage, but this contract is unlikely to lock Seattle into a long-term agreement.

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Sunday March 11 @ 9:48pm

Chargers Extend CB Casey Heyward for 3 years, $36M ($20M guaranteed)
Chargers: B. Normally I pillory teams for doing early extensions in football. There's so much risk for injury or quality slippage and there's no competitive market for a player under contract, especially when the franchise tag is in play for the following year. So how does this get a "B?" Simple: Heyward is PFF's #1 corner (96.4), and this extension covers his ages 29-31 seasons. That's a perfectly reasonable time period to cover and the Chargers got a notable discount by doing the extension early. Put it all together and this looks fine to me, even with the risk that Heyward could go belly up this year and leave San Diego L.A. with a heap of dead money.

49ers Sign CB Richard Sherman for 3 years, $39M (~$18M guaranteed)
49ers: B-. This is a good move in my eyes. Sherman (30, 82.7 PFF) fell off a bit from his elite status last year, but it's fair to wonder how much of that was due to Achilles injuries that required surgery on both feet. He's expected to be ready for camp, so taking the optimistic view, this would be an A- or so. Taking the pessimistic view, it's probably a C. Thus, split the difference. (UPDATE: I guessed on the guarantee when writing this up. Turns out that only the $3M signing bonus is guaranteed, but functionally, $8.175M is guaranteed. Nevertheless, that's a paltry guarantee for a player of Sherman's caliber. Let's kick this up to a B for the Niners.)

Browns Trade DT Danny Shelton and 5th round pick (#158) to Patriots for 2019 3rd round pick
Browns: F. This feels like a broken record. What in the world are the Browns doing? Shelton is a 25-year-old above-average (81.5 PFF) defensive lineman on his rookie deal and with his fifth-year option available. Sure, he's primarily a two-down player who lacks pass rushing prowess, but young, stud lineman are among the most valuable commodity in the sport. The Browns shipped him out for moving up about 60 spots in the draft. Assuming that the Patriots get the 95th pick (a safe bet given their last two decades of football), the Browns pick up the equivalent of the 138th pick worth of value, an early fifth rounder. In what world does that make sense? The fact that Larry Ogunjobi excelled as a rookie doesn't change Shelton's value in the marketplace.
Patriots: A. For all of the reasons stated above.

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Friday March 9 @ 9:49pm

Browns Trade QB DeShone Kizer, 4th round pick (#101), and 5th round pick (#138) to Packers for CB Damarious Randall, 4th round pick (#114), and 5th round pick (#150)
Browns: D-. I get that the Browns were moving on from Kizer between Tyrod Taylor and their future draftee. But good grief, what a price to unload him. Randall was barely average (70.9 PFF) in his third season in 2017. I have a tough time imagining that a 26-year-old cornerback with average production would garner more than $3M on the open market, so he does offer a hair of value at $1.5M on a one-year deal. Is that enough for Kizer? No way (see below). To make matters worse, the value of the Browns picks (8.4 points) exceeds the value of the Packers picks (7.1 points) by the equivalent of an early sixth-round pick. Why did Cleveland send extra value to Green Bay to get this deal done? They must really love Randall. That seems unwise.
Packers: A. The rich get richer. Kizer was my top quarterback for much of the 2017 pre-draft process, and while he slipped to the 52nd overall pick, he gained lots of gametime experience as a rookie and he just turned 22 in January. There's plenty to work with there, even if his ceiling is as a borderline starter. Getting the picks on top is a tremendous bonus, one that I fail to understand the reasoning behind.

Browns Trade 3rd round pick (#65) to Bills for QB Tyrod Taylor
Browns: F. Acquiring all of those extra draft picks only works if you use them efficiently. Using the 65th overall pick -- a highly valuable selection -- to acquire a player overwhelmingly likely to be available in the coming weeks/months for cash only is a terrible move. I happen to like Taylor (83.0 PFF) plenty and think he represents a nice bridge QB for the Browns, who appear overwhelmingly likely to draft a quarterback with a top-four pick in April. But they just threw away a tasty draft pick.
Bills: A+. This will be the deal of the spring. The Bills had telegraphed their hand on Taylor for months, benching him in favor of subpar rookie Nathan Peterman despite being in the midst of a playoff push. Furthermore, Taylor had no guaranteed money on his deal for 2018 and would have left no dead money on the Buffalo cap had they released him. Instead of releasing him, the Bills scored the top pick in the third round. Brilliant.

Browns Trade 4th round pick (#123) and 2019 7th round pick to Dolphins for WR Jarvis Landry
Browns: C. Despite preferring this deal for Miami, this isn't a bad move from the Browns. They've regularly had a hard time attracting free agents, so using a mid-round pick to gain meaningful control of an above-average 25-year-old makes sense. I'll like it better for them provided that they're able to secure Landry (82.0 PFF) on a long-term deal, further minimizing the cost of the pick.
Dolphins: B. The Dolphins handled the Landry situation beautifully: they got something (a couple of picks, one of which is nothing to sneeze at) for nothing (a player that they weren't going to keep). I also like that they decided to avoid going to the top of the market for a slow-footed slot receiver, even if he routinely catches a bunch of passes.

Buccaneers Extend WR Mike Evans for 5 years, $82.5M ($55M guaranteed)
Buccaneers: D. The reporting on this deal is tricky, but it seems as though this deal is an extension to follow Evans' fifth-year option in 2018. Put together, that'd make the deal $96M over six years with about $68M guaranteed. Needless to say, there's no discount there. The Bucs could've used the option year and the franchise tag to hang onto Evans for about $30M over the next two seasons, valuable evaluation time in which they could have determined whether the club's struggles in 2017 were an aberration or a sign of things to come. I don't like accelerating guarantees like this (but kudos to Evans and his agent).

Raiders Extend NT Justin Ellis for 3 years, $15M ($6M guaranteed)
Raiders: C+. It's a solid move. Ellis is an average or slightly above-average run plugger (80.6 PFF), he's in his prime at 27, and run defense doesn't grow on trees. He doesn't provide amazing value here, but it's a slightly above-average deal.

Panthers Trade CB Daryl Worley to Eagles for WR Torrey Smith
Eagles: A. It doesn't get much better than this. Worley isn't much right now, but he was the 77th pick in the 2016 draft and has some game experience under his belt. Smith, on the other hand, is nothing at this point in his career. Trading nothing for something is a great deal...and it's an even better one when the something is cheaper.
Panthers: F. Likewise, it doesn't get worse than this.

Rams Trade 5th round pick (#160) to Broncos for CB Aqib Talib
Rams: B+. This deal is not without risk for the Rams: Talib is a 32-year-old cornerback and corners often fall off a cliff at some point in their early 30s. That said, Talib is about as good of a risk as a team can take, coming off of a marvelous year (86.2 PFF) preceded by a decade of stellar play. Talib brings the added bonus of cost savings for the Rams: he's a better player than Trumaine Johnson and comes for $11M in 2018 and $8M in 2019 with no guaranteed money in either year. Splendid.
Broncos: C. The Broncos are paying their bills for extended so much of their Super Bowl core. Given the options, Talib is probably the right guy to move. Not ideal, but understandable.

Rams Trade ILB Alec Ogletree and 2019 7th round pick to Giants for a 4th round pick (#135) and 6th round pick (#176)
Rams: B+. The Rams took a justifiable risk on Alec Ogletree, signing him to a gaudy extension early in the 2017 season that functionally locked the team in to Ogletree's $10M 2018 cap number while keeping his cap hits from 2019 onward clean. Had the former first-round pick shined in Wade Phillips' new 3-4 defense, the move would've looked shrewd. Instead, he busted, and the Rams were on the hook for a gnarly deal. Instead, the Giants came calling and the Rams recouped same of the draft capital that they spent in remaking their secondary while shedding an unwanted deal at a time when big money needs to be made available for Aaron Donald and Marcus Peters. Nice.
Giants: D+. I'm not a fan of this deal from the Giants' perspective, but I'm also not going to kill them here. Ogletree comes with a first round pedigree and he has produced in the NFL in a 4-3, albeit only in his rookie season. The cost here is too high -- ILBs aren't making this much in free agency, there's plenty of risk that Ogletree doesn't work out, and the draft capital is surprisingly hefty. The downside risk on the back end is low -- Ogletree has no dead money as of 2019 -- but I still can't love this move.

Rams Trade 4th round pick (#124) and 2019 2nd round pick to Chiefs for CB Marcus Peters and 6th round pick (#196)
Rams: A-. Dang. It's tough to find a young, premium player like Peters (25, 85.7 PFF) period, let alone this cheaply. Peters has a reputation for causing some headaches, but at this price point, it's worth a shot for sure. A fun nugget: the Rams hold picks 194, 195, and 196 in the sixth round. Ha!
Chiefs: C-. This isn't exactly a nightmare haul for Peters, but the Chiefs traded Peters on a 2-year, $11M contract (provided that his fifty year option is exercised). They had to be expecting a first rounder in return. They're going to need to find a way to replace the premium outside talent, even if they find the move to be some addition by subtraction in the locker room.

Seahawks Trade DE Michael Bennett and 7th round pick (#248 - could be #226 or #250 instead) to Eagles for 5th round pick (#156 - could be #169 instead) and WR Marcus Johnson
Seahawks: D+. This simply isn't good value for Bennett (32, 80.6 PFF). Even if the Seahawks expect Bennett to falter in the coming year or years, his contract is extremely team friendly (early-year roster bonuses but no guaranteed money remaining) and his production suggests that he should have been worth at least a fourth rounder. And that's before we add in positional scarcity. There's just not much on the market this spring in terms of quality edge players. Bennett should've brought more.
Eagles: B+. This is a strong move for the Eagles. At the same time, nothing happens in a vacuum and $6.65M for Bennett is going to be tricky given that Philadelphia is nearly $10M over the cap already. Still: get the talent, then figure out how it all fits.

Bills Sign RB Chris Ivory for 2 years, $5.5M ($3.5M guaranteed)
Bills: F. This isn't tough, guys. Ivory is 30 and he was one of the NFL's worst backs in 2017 (50.4 PFF) after being one of the NFL's worst backs in 2016 (54.2 PFF). How is there any guaranteed money in his deal?

Rams Trade DE Robert Quinn and 6th round pick (#198) to Dolphins for 4th round pick (#111) and 6th round pick (#183)
Rams: A. This would've been at least a "B" had the Rams and Dolphins only flipped sixth rounders. Nabbing a fourth rounder for Quinn is remarkable. After an explosive start to his career (98.8 PFF in 2013!), Quinn has fallen apart in recent years, posting a poor 60.6 PFF in 2016 and then an even worse 58.1 in 2017 in a 3-4. Moving back to a 4-3 might help Quinn, but the Rams weren't changing their defense and his $11.4M cap figure is laughable for them. Getting a real asset in return is a coup.
Dolphins: D. There's something to be said for taking a gamble. There's nothing to be said for paying so much for the chance to take that gamble. This is an overpayment, plain as day.

Bills Sign CB Vontae Davis for 1 year, $5M ($3.5M guaranteed)
Bills: F. Again, Buffalo, what are you doing? There's no sense in paying such a premium to take a flyer on a 30-year-old corner coming off of a dreadful season (45.2 PFF). The miserable Colts parted with Davis after his awful 2016 (47.3 PFF). Why is Buffalo paying so much and paying so much for a possible headache at that?

Chiefs Trade QB Alex Smith to Redskins for 3rd round pick (#78) and CB Kendall Fuller
Chiefs: C. The Chiefs acquired two assets for Smith: a mid-third rounder and Kendall Fuller (23, 90.0 PFF!) on a 2-year, $1.4M deal. That looks incredible. But then, (i) the quarterback market is always bizarre, and (ii) Smith has reached near-elite levels despite his advanced age (34, 87.2 PFF). Obviously Kansas City was comfortable moving on from Smith with Patrick Mahomes in house, but I'm not a Mahomes fan and Smith has grown into the force that the Chiefs hoped he would be. Taken together, I like the pieces that they brought back and they avoid paying a QB until he's 37, but it's tough to love a deal where a franchise QB goes out the door.
Redskins: D-. The Smith contract is plenty reasonable (4 years, $94M with $71M guaranteed), and there's plenty of reason to believe that he'll be plenty competent for Washington. The problem, of course, is that Washington had a younger and cheaper (if slightly less effective) version of Smith in house already in the form of Kirk Cousins (30, 78.8 PFF). All they had to do was sign him to a reasonable extension at some point in the past three years...and they screwed it up. The cost to the franchise is overwhelming: a quality draft pick, a star corner on a rookie deal, and a bigger chunk of cap space than it would have required to keep Cousins even a year ago. Furthermore, as recently as 2016, Cousins (83.9 PFF) graded higher than Smith (76.8 PFF) by about the same split as they had in 2017. Both are above-average, non-elite QBs. Washington really screwed this one up.