The N.L. Central figures to be a two horse race in 2013. Cincinnati should be in contention all year after winning the division with 97 wins in 2012, but, given their excellent pitching and pitching depth, St. Louis is a good bet to make repeating difficult for the Reds. With Houston off to the American League and Milwaukee and Pittsburgh both playing decent ball, the Cubs should have a firm grip on the doormat.
1. St. Louis
Projected Wins: 94
Explanation: The Cardinals have the pitching to dominate for long stretches with a perfect mix of experienced hurlers and young talent. Their pitching depth also enables them to swing a big trade if they see fit, something that could very well be the difference between reaching the postseason and just missing. I foresee Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller being very productive behind ace Adam Wainwright. I also foresee the Cardinals top five producing plenty of offense. John Jay should get on base enough in front of Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, and Yadier Molina for the offense to be at least average. David Freese is a good sixth option. However, the bottom duo of Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma just won't get the job done. Solid second base prospect Kolten Wong should have a chance to supplant Descalso during the season. Elite outfield prospect Oscar Taveras could also help out, although St. Louis may prefer another full season of seasoning for the wildly talented 19-year-old. With Rafael Furcal injured and looking increasingly washed up, the shortstop hole will keep the Cardinals on the lookout for a big acquisition.
Player to Watch: Miller. The big Texan has had the look of a staff ace for quite some time, and even with a tiny dip in his ceiling, he could be an excellent rotation option just behind Wainwright. If Miller puts it together for a full season, he could be pitching Game Two of the Division Series in October.
2. *Cincinnati
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: That's no mistake: I think we'll have a Wild Card play-in game between Cincinnati and Los Angeles for the right to play Washington in the Wild Card round. The Reds are built very similarly to the Cardinals with excellent starting pitching depth, a very strong bullpen, and an exceptionally productive top of the order. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Shin-Soo Choo are the best trio of lefties on any team with Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick complementing them nicely from the right side. The bottom of the Cincinnati order is good but unspectacular as Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart both struggle to get on base while Ryan Hanigan offers almost no power, although Hanigan could be fully supplanted by the superior Devin Mesoraco behind the plate. Chris Heisey provides good outfield depth as well. Nonetheless, the starting rotation features five good options while the bullpen is anchored by the three-headed monster of Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall, and Jonathan Broxton. Cincinnati won't blow a lot of leads in 2013.
Player to Watch: Bronson Arroyo. In a contract season, the 36-year-old starter has a ton at stake. A productive year could mean another two or three year deal to close his career while struggles could lead to a mid-season move to the bullpen.
3. Milwaukee
Projected Wins: 81
Explanation: I really despise the Kyle Lohse signing by the Brewers. Milwaukee's offensive prowess is undeniable. Their top six of Aoki-Weeks-Braun-Ramirez-Lucroy-Gomez is very strong and that sextext will be vastly improved when Corey Hart replaces Alex Gonzalez at first base in June. Jean Segura rounds out the group nicely. Yovani Gallardo continues to be an excellent starter, and there is some hope for the likes of Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta, and Tyler Thornburg. However, it takes a ton of hope to see that pitching staff - even with Lohse included - being enough for the Brewers to overcome the likes of St. Louis, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Washington, San Francisco, or Los Angeles. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, they have to come out ahead of a number of those teams to make the playoffs. Lohse is coming off of a career year at age 33. It is possible that he will enjoy some of the same improvements and luck that carried him to that great season again. However, it is just as likely that he will pitch like a 34-year-old, giving the Brewers a fourth or fifth starting pitcher for $11M and costing them their first-round pick in June's draft while simultaneously giving division rival St. Louis an extra selection. It's hard to see this working out well for the Brewers.
Player to Watch: Carlos Gomez. With a 3-year, $24M extension in hand, Gomez needs to show that 2012 was a year of his talent coming to fruition, not a year of luck. If it is the latter, Milwaukee is in trouble. If it is the former, Gomez could take another big step in 2013.
4. Pittsburgh
Projected Wins: 77
Explanation: Pirates fans hoping to break the .500 barrier have to wait one more season to do so. Thankfully for them, 2014 should be that year with the arrival of top starters Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. Before Cole and Taillon make it to Pittsburgh, the team will struggle through starts from Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Sanchez behind solid arms A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, and James McDonald. The bullpen should be solid, led by big armed closer Jason Grilli. The lineup, on the other hand, consists of superstar Andrew McCutchen, good second baseman Neil Walker, and six average but unspectacular bats. There just isn't enough offensively to carry the team given its decent pitching.
Player to Watch: Pedro Alvarez. The second overall pick in the 2008 draft, Alvarez has showed the power stroke that made scouts fall in love with him. Unfortunately for the Pirates, he has also shown mind-boggling inconsistency at the plate. If he puts it together at 26, he could still be one of the top five third basemen in the game. It's time.
5. Chicago
Projected Wins: 59
Explanation: After winning just 61 games in 2012, the new front office regime shored up the team's starting pitch depth issues by signing Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Carlos Villanueva, and Scott Feldman. They also added Japanese closer Kyuji Fujikawa to shore up a dreadful bullpen. Baker was expected to be out until May, but a spring training setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery should keep him out until at least the All-Star break. Similarly, largely seen as the top trade chip on the market, Matt Garza has been slowed in his return from a July elbow injury by a lat strain, although Garza is on track to return in May. Even with the new found starting depth, the Cubs bullpen looked to be shaky entering the season and early returns have been dreadful. Thankfully 2012 breakouts Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood have continued rolling along in the rotation. Regardless of the pitching success or failure, the team's offense will keep them from having any chance of competing. Future studs Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo should anchor the patchwork lineup with only catcher Welington Castillo and perhaps second baseman Darwin Barney likely to be in Cubs uniforms by the time the team competes again for a postseason berth. Alfonso Soriano turned in a strong 2012 campaign, waiting until May 15th to club his first home run, then smashing 32 on the year. Another good season from Soriano could help the development of the two younger Cubs ahead of him in the batting order.
Player to Watch: Garza. The team's best bet to bring back a big return in a mid-season trade, the 29-year-old righty pitched like an ace in 2011 before the injury bug bit in 2012. If he returns to form for a couple of months in advance of the deadline, he could still net the team a nice haul in a trade.
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
2013 American League Central Predictions
The A.L. Central is probably going to be the worst division in baseball in 2013 despite housing the reigning A.L. champion Detroit Tigers. Unsurprisingly, the division race figures to be a snooze.
1. Detroit
Projected Wins: 101
Explanation: The Tigers were the most talented team in the 2012 A.L. Central even though they had to hold off a furious charge from the surprising White Sox to win the division crown. 2013 should be much easier. They feature MLB's best starting pitching with a true ace - reigning MVP Justin Verlander - followed by three well above-average starters in Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez. Youngsters Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly bring up the rear in more than acceptable fashion. As for the position players, only left fielder Andy Dirks figures to be below average at his position and even Dirks will face some competition from within the organization as Avisail Garcia made some noise last year. The heart of the order is elite and the lineup depth is baseball's best with the return of Victor Martinez, a full season of Omar Infante, and the addition of Torii Hunter. 2013 will not be tense until October.
Player to Watch: I have one player for the other 29 teams. For the Tigers, the "player" to watch is the closer, whoever that is. After prospect Bruce Rondon was clearly overmatched in spring training, the team decided to go by committee in the closer's role. While that was the right decision given the team's personnel, uncertainty in the bullpen has been the Achilles heel for a number of teams. If Detroit is to avoid the same fate, one of Al Albuquerque, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, or Octavio Dotel will need to grab the reins.
2. Cleveland
Projected Wins: 83
Explanation: When the Indians traded away Shin-Soo Choo, conventional wisdom was that the team was giving up on the 2013 season. However, they quickly snapped up Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to supplement a lineup that already included good regulars in Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana. The lineup should be an above-average group, especially considering the enormous defensive upgrade of Bourn replacing Choo in the outfield. The pitching staff features a bunch of good names, but as a group, they are likely to be slightly below-average. Ubaldo Jimenez has been a tremendous disappointment since the Indians acquired him from Colorado, and Justin Masterson is miscast as an ace. Super prospect Trevor Bauer could be that missing ace if he reaches Cleveland this year, but he likely needs some more seasoning and needs to get past the personality issues that got him shipped out of Arizona just a year and a half after being drafted third overall.
Player to Watch: Scott Kazmir. The former prized Mets prospect and Rays ace fell off the baseball map when he completely lost his ability to throw strikes. Kazmir won the fifth starting job in spring training, and a productive season from him could keep Cleveland in contention. Unfortunately, it is likelier that he will not be able to keep his job.
3. Chicago
Projected Wins: 79
Explanation: The White Sox could very well contend in 2013. They have enough offensive depth to win lots of games with a roster full of players who could be above-average or better. Unfortunately, the roster is also full of risk. Soul-of-the-team Paul Konerko is 37. Adam Dunn and Alex Rios were both horrendous in 2011. Jeff Keppinger and Alejandro de Aza both enjoyed career years in 2012. Tyler Flowers is unproven and Gordon Beckham's career could fall apart at a moment's notice. Chris Sale looks like an ace, but his delivery screams of elbow trouble. Jake Peavy has a well chronicled history of back issues that nearly forced his retirement. Gavin Floyd and John Danks have both been disappointments since emerging as possible top-of-the-rotation starters. While the bullpen looks very good, the farm system lacks the prospects needed to pull off a big move. Without that trading ability, the odds of a flop or injury that cripples the team is just too great.
Player to Watch: de Aza. The center fielder played wonderfully in limited action in 2011, then posted a strong full season in 2012. However, he showed very little in his career before 2011, so his age-29 season in 2013 is essential maintaining a solid career trajectory.
4. Kansas City
Projected Wins: 71
Explanation: I have been very critical of the James Shields trade from Kansas City's perspective. Shields is a very good starting pitcher, far and away the best Kansas City has had since Zack Greinke departed via trade. However, at the cost of middle-of-the-order, MLB-ready bat Wil Myers, two years of Shields just doesn't make sense given that the rest of the Royals roster isn't close enough to competing for the playoffs. To be fair, the lineup is very solid. Given the potential for breakout campaigns from Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain, the offense could be above-average even with Chris Getz and Jeff Francouer getting too many plate appearances. Unfortunately for Royals fans, Shields is the only average starter in the group. The horribly overpaid Jeremy Guthrie is a subpar second option and Ervin Santana is at a career crossroads, hardly an ideal option as a third banana for a playoff team. There just isn't enough pitching here to justify the high cost of the Shields trade.
Player to Watch: Cain. The 27-year-old center fielder flashed some special skills as a rookie in 2010, skills that made him a key part of the Greinke trade. He finally has his shot at a full-time major league job this year and has the skills to be an impact contributor. The team cannot compete without a big year from him.
5. Minnesota
Projected Wins: 59
Explanation: The heart of the Twins lineup could resemble that of many playoff teams with Joe Mauer followed by Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau. The rest of the lineup is uninspiring, although Ryan Doumit could blast his fair share of home runs. Unfortunately for the Twins, pitching is essential and the team has no even average starters. It is possible that Mike Pelfrey or Vance Worley could rediscover some of their magic from a few years ago, but outside of that pair, there are not even arms for dreaming.
Player to Watch: Aaron Hicks. The Twins aggressively gave the 23-year-old the everyday center field job to start the season and promptly watched him start the season an incredible 2-for-43 with 20 strikeouts. The 20 strikeouts tied the Cubs' Brett Jackson's major league record, just ahead of a quartet of very good ballplayers: Matt Williams, Russell Branyan, Ray Durham, and Giancarlo Stanton. It is far too early to throw in the towel for Hicks, but some signs of life would be welcome for a team expected to be mired in years of losing.
1. Detroit
Projected Wins: 101
Explanation: The Tigers were the most talented team in the 2012 A.L. Central even though they had to hold off a furious charge from the surprising White Sox to win the division crown. 2013 should be much easier. They feature MLB's best starting pitching with a true ace - reigning MVP Justin Verlander - followed by three well above-average starters in Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez. Youngsters Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly bring up the rear in more than acceptable fashion. As for the position players, only left fielder Andy Dirks figures to be below average at his position and even Dirks will face some competition from within the organization as Avisail Garcia made some noise last year. The heart of the order is elite and the lineup depth is baseball's best with the return of Victor Martinez, a full season of Omar Infante, and the addition of Torii Hunter. 2013 will not be tense until October.
Player to Watch: I have one player for the other 29 teams. For the Tigers, the "player" to watch is the closer, whoever that is. After prospect Bruce Rondon was clearly overmatched in spring training, the team decided to go by committee in the closer's role. While that was the right decision given the team's personnel, uncertainty in the bullpen has been the Achilles heel for a number of teams. If Detroit is to avoid the same fate, one of Al Albuquerque, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, or Octavio Dotel will need to grab the reins.
2. Cleveland
Projected Wins: 83
Explanation: When the Indians traded away Shin-Soo Choo, conventional wisdom was that the team was giving up on the 2013 season. However, they quickly snapped up Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to supplement a lineup that already included good regulars in Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana. The lineup should be an above-average group, especially considering the enormous defensive upgrade of Bourn replacing Choo in the outfield. The pitching staff features a bunch of good names, but as a group, they are likely to be slightly below-average. Ubaldo Jimenez has been a tremendous disappointment since the Indians acquired him from Colorado, and Justin Masterson is miscast as an ace. Super prospect Trevor Bauer could be that missing ace if he reaches Cleveland this year, but he likely needs some more seasoning and needs to get past the personality issues that got him shipped out of Arizona just a year and a half after being drafted third overall.
Player to Watch: Scott Kazmir. The former prized Mets prospect and Rays ace fell off the baseball map when he completely lost his ability to throw strikes. Kazmir won the fifth starting job in spring training, and a productive season from him could keep Cleveland in contention. Unfortunately, it is likelier that he will not be able to keep his job.
3. Chicago
Projected Wins: 79
Explanation: The White Sox could very well contend in 2013. They have enough offensive depth to win lots of games with a roster full of players who could be above-average or better. Unfortunately, the roster is also full of risk. Soul-of-the-team Paul Konerko is 37. Adam Dunn and Alex Rios were both horrendous in 2011. Jeff Keppinger and Alejandro de Aza both enjoyed career years in 2012. Tyler Flowers is unproven and Gordon Beckham's career could fall apart at a moment's notice. Chris Sale looks like an ace, but his delivery screams of elbow trouble. Jake Peavy has a well chronicled history of back issues that nearly forced his retirement. Gavin Floyd and John Danks have both been disappointments since emerging as possible top-of-the-rotation starters. While the bullpen looks very good, the farm system lacks the prospects needed to pull off a big move. Without that trading ability, the odds of a flop or injury that cripples the team is just too great.
Player to Watch: de Aza. The center fielder played wonderfully in limited action in 2011, then posted a strong full season in 2012. However, he showed very little in his career before 2011, so his age-29 season in 2013 is essential maintaining a solid career trajectory.
4. Kansas City
Projected Wins: 71
Explanation: I have been very critical of the James Shields trade from Kansas City's perspective. Shields is a very good starting pitcher, far and away the best Kansas City has had since Zack Greinke departed via trade. However, at the cost of middle-of-the-order, MLB-ready bat Wil Myers, two years of Shields just doesn't make sense given that the rest of the Royals roster isn't close enough to competing for the playoffs. To be fair, the lineup is very solid. Given the potential for breakout campaigns from Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain, the offense could be above-average even with Chris Getz and Jeff Francouer getting too many plate appearances. Unfortunately for Royals fans, Shields is the only average starter in the group. The horribly overpaid Jeremy Guthrie is a subpar second option and Ervin Santana is at a career crossroads, hardly an ideal option as a third banana for a playoff team. There just isn't enough pitching here to justify the high cost of the Shields trade.
Player to Watch: Cain. The 27-year-old center fielder flashed some special skills as a rookie in 2010, skills that made him a key part of the Greinke trade. He finally has his shot at a full-time major league job this year and has the skills to be an impact contributor. The team cannot compete without a big year from him.
5. Minnesota
Projected Wins: 59
Explanation: The heart of the Twins lineup could resemble that of many playoff teams with Joe Mauer followed by Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau. The rest of the lineup is uninspiring, although Ryan Doumit could blast his fair share of home runs. Unfortunately for the Twins, pitching is essential and the team has no even average starters. It is possible that Mike Pelfrey or Vance Worley could rediscover some of their magic from a few years ago, but outside of that pair, there are not even arms for dreaming.
Player to Watch: Aaron Hicks. The Twins aggressively gave the 23-year-old the everyday center field job to start the season and promptly watched him start the season an incredible 2-for-43 with 20 strikeouts. The 20 strikeouts tied the Cubs' Brett Jackson's major league record, just ahead of a quartet of very good ballplayers: Matt Williams, Russell Branyan, Ray Durham, and Giancarlo Stanton. It is far too early to throw in the towel for Hicks, but some signs of life would be welcome for a team expected to be mired in years of losing.
Monday, April 22, 2013
2013 National League East Predictions
The National League East has been a tumultuous place for teams not based in Atlanta. The Mets began the 2000s with a World Series appearance but otherwise endured a lackluster decade and currently the team is in the midst of a changing of the guard. The Nationals were baseball's doormat for years but drafted well for a couple of years and announced their presence as serious players in 2012. The Phillies won a World Series and played for another at the end of the last decade, but the team seems likely to have a wildly different roster when they return to that level. Finally, the Marlins at the poster child for wild fluctuations, sandwiching rousing success with horrifying failure. Despite this reality, the division's teams seem easier to peg in 2013 than ever before.
* - Denotes wild card
1. Atlanta
Projected Wins: 95
Explanation: While I do feel a bit conflicted for picking such a big season out of the Braves given their fiery hot start to the year, I have not picked another team to win the division since the 1990s, so there is authenticity here. Entering the season, Atlanta had six excellent regulars including superstars Justin Upton and Jason Heyward, and the team had holes only at third base and catcher. Although Brian McCann's recovery from offseason shoulder surgery has gone poorly, the unknown Evan Gattis has shown that his wildly successful 2012 across three minor league levels was no fluke. If Gattis can be even an average regular all year, Atlanta could eclipse 100 wins even when Paul Maholm returns to Earth thanks to their excellent pitching depth with extremely high ceilings.
Player to Watch: For the remainder of the season, it's Gattis by a mile. But without the benefit of the last three weeks, it has to be Justin Upton. The younger of the brothers in the Atlanta outfield, Justin cost the Braves Martin Prado and ace prospect Randall Delgado. If Justin plays close to his ability, he is an MVP candidate. He has played like a superstar before. He has also played like an average regular. He turns 26 in August, so it is time for him to solidify his star status.
2. *Washington
Projected Wins: 91
Explanation: The Nationals pitching staff is the best in baseball. Their excellent rotation features a pair of Cy Young contenders in Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez followed by two above-average arms in Jordan Zimmerman and Dan Haren. Ross Detwiler figures to own the fifth spot as an average starter. Once those starters give the bullpen a lead, it is lights out with Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen, and Tyler Clippard slamming the door shut. The offense is more about depth with average regulars surrounding stars Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. However, very few other teams actually put eight average or better starters on the field, so the Washington offense should hum again in 2013.
Player to Watch: The Nationals have plenty of interesting names but I think that the most interesting player on the roster is Jayson Werth. The Washington payroll spiked from $68M in 2011 to $118M this year. Including this season, Werth has five years and $99M left on his deal. While the team has locked up Ryan Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Denard Span, Adam LaRoche, and Soriano, the likes of Strasburg, Ian Desmond, Detwiler, Storen, and Clippard are all into their arbitration years as key cogs in the franchise's wheels. If Werth continues to be just an average regular, he could be on his way out the door to accommodate the rising costs of the superior talent.
3. Philadelphia
Projected Wins: 84
Explanation: Philly has a good team with some serious star talent. Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay form the top trio in the game in spite of Halladay's early season struggles where he has been devastated by the long ball. Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan round out the rotation complemented by an excellent bullpen with big arms Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, and Antonio Bastardo. However, the offense is harder to come by in the Phillies lineup. Ryan Howard's extension has been a disappointment since before it kicked in, Chase Utley has dealt with knee problems, and Michael Young - seemingly acquired to solidify the group - is 36 with rapidly declining power and floundering on-base ability. The Philadelphia system lacks impact talent to be called up or used in trades, making the possibility of a mid-season fire sale all the more likely.
Player to Watch: Domonic Brown. The former banner prospect is yet to put it together in the majors. However, few doubt that the tools are still there. At 25, he continues to confound projection systems that wonder where the star offensive player is. He may be too old to have a magical career, but he can still muster a great one if the puzzle comes together. He should get his full-time shot in 2013.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 74
Explanation: The Mets made a spectacular trade this offseason, turning 38-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey into big pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard and across-the-board above-average catcher Travis d'Arnaud. Unfortunately for the big club in 2013, the results will be worse as a result. By the end of the season, the team could feature an exciting, deep rotation headlined by young studs Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey trailed by the solid Jon Niese and Dillon Gee with veteran Shaun Marcum filling out the group. Regardless, the team will surround the excellent David Wright with the solid duo of Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy with little else. There just isn't enough on offense yet for the team to compete, although there could be enough pitching for playoff dreams in 2014. Expect the Mets to be players for big offensive free agents like Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson this offseason.
Player to Watch: Davis. Despite crushing 32 home runs in 2012, Davis had just a .308 on-base percentage thanks to a .246 BABIP and nearly 25% strikeout rate. If he shows more on-base ability while maintaining good power, he is a cleanup hitter. If the on-base ability is gone, he likely hits sixth or seventh on a good team.
5. Miami
Projected Wins: 53
Explanation: Giancarlo Stanton is an ultra-mega-star. Jose Fernandez should be a top-of-the-rotation starter and pitch some in Miami this year. I'm punting the rest of this write-up just like the Marlins are punting the 2013 season.
Player to Watch: Stanton. Nobody else on this team is interesting while Stanton could still challenge for the MVP despite a likely triple digit loss total. That is a rarity to say the least.
* - Denotes wild card
1. Atlanta
Projected Wins: 95
Explanation: While I do feel a bit conflicted for picking such a big season out of the Braves given their fiery hot start to the year, I have not picked another team to win the division since the 1990s, so there is authenticity here. Entering the season, Atlanta had six excellent regulars including superstars Justin Upton and Jason Heyward, and the team had holes only at third base and catcher. Although Brian McCann's recovery from offseason shoulder surgery has gone poorly, the unknown Evan Gattis has shown that his wildly successful 2012 across three minor league levels was no fluke. If Gattis can be even an average regular all year, Atlanta could eclipse 100 wins even when Paul Maholm returns to Earth thanks to their excellent pitching depth with extremely high ceilings.
Player to Watch: For the remainder of the season, it's Gattis by a mile. But without the benefit of the last three weeks, it has to be Justin Upton. The younger of the brothers in the Atlanta outfield, Justin cost the Braves Martin Prado and ace prospect Randall Delgado. If Justin plays close to his ability, he is an MVP candidate. He has played like a superstar before. He has also played like an average regular. He turns 26 in August, so it is time for him to solidify his star status.
2. *Washington
Projected Wins: 91
Explanation: The Nationals pitching staff is the best in baseball. Their excellent rotation features a pair of Cy Young contenders in Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez followed by two above-average arms in Jordan Zimmerman and Dan Haren. Ross Detwiler figures to own the fifth spot as an average starter. Once those starters give the bullpen a lead, it is lights out with Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen, and Tyler Clippard slamming the door shut. The offense is more about depth with average regulars surrounding stars Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. However, very few other teams actually put eight average or better starters on the field, so the Washington offense should hum again in 2013.
Player to Watch: The Nationals have plenty of interesting names but I think that the most interesting player on the roster is Jayson Werth. The Washington payroll spiked from $68M in 2011 to $118M this year. Including this season, Werth has five years and $99M left on his deal. While the team has locked up Ryan Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Denard Span, Adam LaRoche, and Soriano, the likes of Strasburg, Ian Desmond, Detwiler, Storen, and Clippard are all into their arbitration years as key cogs in the franchise's wheels. If Werth continues to be just an average regular, he could be on his way out the door to accommodate the rising costs of the superior talent.
3. Philadelphia
Projected Wins: 84
Explanation: Philly has a good team with some serious star talent. Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay form the top trio in the game in spite of Halladay's early season struggles where he has been devastated by the long ball. Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan round out the rotation complemented by an excellent bullpen with big arms Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, and Antonio Bastardo. However, the offense is harder to come by in the Phillies lineup. Ryan Howard's extension has been a disappointment since before it kicked in, Chase Utley has dealt with knee problems, and Michael Young - seemingly acquired to solidify the group - is 36 with rapidly declining power and floundering on-base ability. The Philadelphia system lacks impact talent to be called up or used in trades, making the possibility of a mid-season fire sale all the more likely.
Player to Watch: Domonic Brown. The former banner prospect is yet to put it together in the majors. However, few doubt that the tools are still there. At 25, he continues to confound projection systems that wonder where the star offensive player is. He may be too old to have a magical career, but he can still muster a great one if the puzzle comes together. He should get his full-time shot in 2013.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 74
Explanation: The Mets made a spectacular trade this offseason, turning 38-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey into big pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard and across-the-board above-average catcher Travis d'Arnaud. Unfortunately for the big club in 2013, the results will be worse as a result. By the end of the season, the team could feature an exciting, deep rotation headlined by young studs Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey trailed by the solid Jon Niese and Dillon Gee with veteran Shaun Marcum filling out the group. Regardless, the team will surround the excellent David Wright with the solid duo of Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy with little else. There just isn't enough on offense yet for the team to compete, although there could be enough pitching for playoff dreams in 2014. Expect the Mets to be players for big offensive free agents like Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson this offseason.
Player to Watch: Davis. Despite crushing 32 home runs in 2012, Davis had just a .308 on-base percentage thanks to a .246 BABIP and nearly 25% strikeout rate. If he shows more on-base ability while maintaining good power, he is a cleanup hitter. If the on-base ability is gone, he likely hits sixth or seventh on a good team.
5. Miami
Projected Wins: 53
Explanation: Giancarlo Stanton is an ultra-mega-star. Jose Fernandez should be a top-of-the-rotation starter and pitch some in Miami this year. I'm punting the rest of this write-up just like the Marlins are punting the 2013 season.
Player to Watch: Stanton. Nobody else on this team is interesting while Stanton could still challenge for the MVP despite a likely triple digit loss total. That is a rarity to say the least.
2013 American League East Predictions
The 2012 AL East was turned on its head with the doormat Baltimore Orioles claiming a Wild Card spot with 93 wins, just behind the division champion Yankees. 2013 figures to be just as unpredictable. With that in mind, here's my take on the tight division.
2. *Toronto
Projected Wins: 87
Explanation: The top of the Toronto lineup looks like that of a World Series contender with Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion. The bottom five, on the other hand, should provide only defense unless Colby Rasmus can finally progress toward his considerable ceiling. More importantly for the Jays, their offseason facelift gives them a mostly-new starting rotation of big names. Reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey should be good, although some regression is expected after a huge spike in strikeouts in 2012. Brandon Morrow should be strong while J.A. Happ is a good fifth option. Toronto's season likely hangs on the free agent season of Josh Johnson and the failing left arm of Mark Buehrle. Buehrle showed signs of the end last season in Miami and represents a huge risk for the Jays. Johnson should have a big year, but health was a big issue in 2011, so he needs to make 30+ starts. If Toronto does manage to reach the postseason, their bullpen will propel them there with the excellent tandem of Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos nailing down wins.
Player to Watch: Johnson. A big season could leave him as the top arm to reach the free agent market. An injury-riddled year likely renders him a Scott Baker-type on the market, fishing for a one-year deal to reestablish his value.
3. Boston
* - Denotes wild card
1. Tampa Bay
Projected Wins: 89
Explanation: The Tampa Bay offense is best described as this: Longoria, Zobrist, a bit of Jennings, and pray for rain. However, the Rays pitching staff is so good, the team will ride the arms into October. Ace David Price dominated the American League en route to the 2012 Cy Young award. He has been remarkably consistent and he is a very safe bet to produce another excellent year in what figures to be his final full campaign in Tampa. Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore are as good of a 2-3 combination as exists in the game. The Rays fill in their final two spots with Alex Cobb, Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona), Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi. That quartet is as good as many teams second through fifth starters. The Rays will throw a good starting pitcher in every game in 2013, a feature that should be just enough to overcome their anemic offense. Then again, power prospect Wil Myers could excel as a rookie and push the win total into the 90s.
Player to Watch: Myers. Tampa has never been in a position to take on big contracts, so any impact additions tend to come from within the organization. Acquired in the James Shields blockbuster, Myers could push Zobrist to the second spot in the lineup, occupying the fourth spot behind Longoria and giving the top of the Tampa lineup that juggernaut look that it currently lacks.
Projected Wins: 89
Explanation: The Tampa Bay offense is best described as this: Longoria, Zobrist, a bit of Jennings, and pray for rain. However, the Rays pitching staff is so good, the team will ride the arms into October. Ace David Price dominated the American League en route to the 2012 Cy Young award. He has been remarkably consistent and he is a very safe bet to produce another excellent year in what figures to be his final full campaign in Tampa. Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore are as good of a 2-3 combination as exists in the game. The Rays fill in their final two spots with Alex Cobb, Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona), Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi. That quartet is as good as many teams second through fifth starters. The Rays will throw a good starting pitcher in every game in 2013, a feature that should be just enough to overcome their anemic offense. Then again, power prospect Wil Myers could excel as a rookie and push the win total into the 90s.
Player to Watch: Myers. Tampa has never been in a position to take on big contracts, so any impact additions tend to come from within the organization. Acquired in the James Shields blockbuster, Myers could push Zobrist to the second spot in the lineup, occupying the fourth spot behind Longoria and giving the top of the Tampa lineup that juggernaut look that it currently lacks.
2. *Toronto
Projected Wins: 87
Explanation: The top of the Toronto lineup looks like that of a World Series contender with Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion. The bottom five, on the other hand, should provide only defense unless Colby Rasmus can finally progress toward his considerable ceiling. More importantly for the Jays, their offseason facelift gives them a mostly-new starting rotation of big names. Reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey should be good, although some regression is expected after a huge spike in strikeouts in 2012. Brandon Morrow should be strong while J.A. Happ is a good fifth option. Toronto's season likely hangs on the free agent season of Josh Johnson and the failing left arm of Mark Buehrle. Buehrle showed signs of the end last season in Miami and represents a huge risk for the Jays. Johnson should have a big year, but health was a big issue in 2011, so he needs to make 30+ starts. If Toronto does manage to reach the postseason, their bullpen will propel them there with the excellent tandem of Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos nailing down wins.
Player to Watch: Johnson. A big season could leave him as the top arm to reach the free agent market. An injury-riddled year likely renders him a Scott Baker-type on the market, fishing for a one-year deal to reestablish his value.
3. Boston
Projected Wins: 83
Explanation: The Red Sox are at something of a crossroads as an organization. After a surprising 69-93 2012 campaign, the front office added veteran starter Ryan Dempster, the big bat of Mike Napoli, and Shane Victrino's all-around game. However, star center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury will hit free agency after the year, and the team's two best pitching prospects, Matt Barnes and Allen Webster, should reach Boston this season. With mainstays Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz continuing to anchor the lineup, the Sox should have a good year but not a special one.
Player to Watch: Ellsbury. After injuries in 2010 and 2012, the dynamic center fielder figures to get himself a nine figure deal in the offseason if he plays a full year with good results. Should he suffer through another injury-marred year, he will have to choose between a one-year deal and a multi-year deal with a much lower dollar figure. There's a ton at stake for Ellsbury, a player this writer hopes to see on the north side of Chicago next year.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 80
Explanation: Despite the name on the front of the uniform, this Yankees team screams average with a couple of elite players (CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano, Mariano Rivera) surrounded by a heap of scrubs (Lyle Overbay, Chris Stewart, Eduardo Nunez, Vernon Wells). The latter group should be replaced at some point during the season by established former stars Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, and Derek Jeter. However, the ceiling for those stars is much lower than it was when the team signed them to gaudy contracts. The Yankees were a fringe playoff team with full seasons of the stars; without them, the postseason is out of reach.
Player to Watch: Granderson. The 32-year-old center fielder followed an electric 2011 season by bashing 43 home runs in 2012. However, Granderson managed only a .319 on-base percentage and struck out in a career-high 28.5% of his plate appearances while swiping just 10 bases. A return to his career-average .341 OBP could mean a huge payday for the Chicago native.
5. Baltimore
Projected Wins: 76
Explanation: Buck Showalter should have Manager of the Decade wrapped up solely based on his 2012 performance. The Baltimore core of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Weiters is exciting and strong. Further, the group is complemented by mega-prospects Manny Machado and ace Dylan Bundy with big starter Kevin Gausman not far behind. However, the depth offensively is average at best and the starting rotation lacks a single truly exciting arm. If Bundy and Gausman reach the majors quickly and pitch to their ability, the team could contend for a playoff spot again. However, that's too tall of an order to ask. The 2012 Orioles outscored their opponents by just seven runs, yet somehow exceeded their Pythagorean win-loss record by an astounding 11 wins. Lightning tends not to strike the same place twice.
Player to Watch: Bundy. He's the most exciting pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. That says enough. Hopefully his spring training elbow flare up is a minor setback and not a sign of things to come.
Player to Watch: Ellsbury. After injuries in 2010 and 2012, the dynamic center fielder figures to get himself a nine figure deal in the offseason if he plays a full year with good results. Should he suffer through another injury-marred year, he will have to choose between a one-year deal and a multi-year deal with a much lower dollar figure. There's a ton at stake for Ellsbury, a player this writer hopes to see on the north side of Chicago next year.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 80
Explanation: Despite the name on the front of the uniform, this Yankees team screams average with a couple of elite players (CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano, Mariano Rivera) surrounded by a heap of scrubs (Lyle Overbay, Chris Stewart, Eduardo Nunez, Vernon Wells). The latter group should be replaced at some point during the season by established former stars Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, and Derek Jeter. However, the ceiling for those stars is much lower than it was when the team signed them to gaudy contracts. The Yankees were a fringe playoff team with full seasons of the stars; without them, the postseason is out of reach.
Player to Watch: Granderson. The 32-year-old center fielder followed an electric 2011 season by bashing 43 home runs in 2012. However, Granderson managed only a .319 on-base percentage and struck out in a career-high 28.5% of his plate appearances while swiping just 10 bases. A return to his career-average .341 OBP could mean a huge payday for the Chicago native.
5. Baltimore
Projected Wins: 76
Explanation: Buck Showalter should have Manager of the Decade wrapped up solely based on his 2012 performance. The Baltimore core of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Weiters is exciting and strong. Further, the group is complemented by mega-prospects Manny Machado and ace Dylan Bundy with big starter Kevin Gausman not far behind. However, the depth offensively is average at best and the starting rotation lacks a single truly exciting arm. If Bundy and Gausman reach the majors quickly and pitch to their ability, the team could contend for a playoff spot again. However, that's too tall of an order to ask. The 2012 Orioles outscored their opponents by just seven runs, yet somehow exceeded their Pythagorean win-loss record by an astounding 11 wins. Lightning tends not to strike the same place twice.
Player to Watch: Bundy. He's the most exciting pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. That says enough. Hopefully his spring training elbow flare up is a minor setback and not a sign of things to come.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
2013 American League West Predictions
The American League West got bigger for 2013, adding the horrendous Astros to the fold. Although the Astros will bring down the overall quality of play in the division, a trio of contenders keep things plenty interesting.
* - Denotes wild card
1. Texas
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: Even with Josh Hamilton in southern California, the Rangers are going to score plenty of runs. It seems to be only a matter of time until elite prospect Jurickson Profar shows up, bumping Ian Kinsler to first base and replacing Mitch Moreland in the lineup. With Profar likely beginning his career at second base, Texas will have the best infield defense in baseball, anchored by the recently extended Elvis Andrus and perennial Gold Glove third baseman Adrian Beltre. The bullpen is deep and it should preserve plenty of wins for a deep rotation led by Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish. This is a team that does everything well without too many huge names.
Player to Watch: Derek Holland. After signing a sizable extension, Holland struggled to repeat his 2011 success in 2012. Holland lacks any elite abilities, but if he can avoid allowing too many home runs, he should be a nice complement to Darvish and Alexi Ogando.
2. *Anaheim (they don't pay me to pretend they're in LA)
Projected Wins: 88
Explanation: The Angels rotation is shaky. After ace Jered Weaver - out until late May with a broken non-throwing elbow - the quartet of C.J. Wilson, Joe Blanton, Jason Vargas, and Tommy Hanson screams of average pitching. Fortunately for the Halos, teams can survive the lengthy campaign on the strength of excellent pitching/defense or excellent offense, not requiring both. The Angels offense is second to none with three MVP-level talents in the top four spots and superb depth.
Player to Watch: Wilson. After a pair of elite campaigns in Texas, Wilson headed west to join the rival Angels and struggled through an average year in 2012. At 32, a return to the elite is just as likely as a career drop off. For the team to play into October, Wilson needs to be that 1B option behind Weaver.
3. Oakland
Projected Wins: 86
Explanation: The Athletics will have a good starting pitcher on the bump every night this year, a benefit that cannot be underestimated for a contender. Unfortunately, none of those pitchers are more than good, nor do they have ceilings beyond that level with the exception of young Jarrod Parker. The lineup is led by cornerstone talent Yoenis Cespedes. Sadly, Cespedes stands alone as an impact offensive talent, and the bottom of the Oakland lineup is truly awful. In another division, they might be a playoff team.
Player to Watch: Josh Reddick. The 26-year-old burst onto the scene in 2012, blasting 32 home runs and contributing superb right field defense. However, he managed only a .305 on-base percentage, so a rounding out of his offensive game is necessary for Reddick to stick as an everyday player over the long haul.
4. Seattle
Projected Wins: 73
Explanation: The Mariners are improving steadily, but a deeper starting rotation or lineup stands between them and contention. After Felix Hernandez, Seattle has depth in the rotation but no impact arms. Supreme prospects Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen should both appear in Seattle at some point during the 2013 season, but neither is expected to have a serious impact this year. The offense is improved with the addition of former Nationals masher Michael Morse, and it features solid depth via youthful talent in Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, and Kyle Seager. With Walker, Hultzen, and top catching prospect Mike Zunino on the scene, 2014 could be the year that the Mariners return to contention if the team can add a big, middle-of-the-order bat. Given the failure of first baseman Justin Smoak, a 1B/OF like Corey Hart could be a great fit.
Player to Watch: Even though 2013 is really about the development of the club's high-level minor league talent, Montero faces an early career crossroads. With questions about his ability to catch every day and his bat disappointing some thus far, the big, 23-year-old righty needs to rediscover his offensive profile.
5. Houston
Projected Wins: 58
Explanation: The Astros are incredibly bad. Jose Altuve is a good speed/batting average second baseman. Altuve will likely be Houston's only above-average player in 2013, and he might just be their only average player too. None of the very poor starting pitchers figure to be around in two years, and only stopgap power hitters Carlos Pena and Chris Carter could total average offensive production.
Player to Watch: Jason Castro. The former top pick showed some on-base ability in 2012 and a bit of pop, although he struggled behind the plate. He will be 26 in two months, so 2013 is a big year for determining whether he can be a decent regular or will be a fringe starter at best.
* - Denotes wild card
1. Texas
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: Even with Josh Hamilton in southern California, the Rangers are going to score plenty of runs. It seems to be only a matter of time until elite prospect Jurickson Profar shows up, bumping Ian Kinsler to first base and replacing Mitch Moreland in the lineup. With Profar likely beginning his career at second base, Texas will have the best infield defense in baseball, anchored by the recently extended Elvis Andrus and perennial Gold Glove third baseman Adrian Beltre. The bullpen is deep and it should preserve plenty of wins for a deep rotation led by Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish. This is a team that does everything well without too many huge names.
Player to Watch: Derek Holland. After signing a sizable extension, Holland struggled to repeat his 2011 success in 2012. Holland lacks any elite abilities, but if he can avoid allowing too many home runs, he should be a nice complement to Darvish and Alexi Ogando.
2. *Anaheim (they don't pay me to pretend they're in LA)
Projected Wins: 88
Explanation: The Angels rotation is shaky. After ace Jered Weaver - out until late May with a broken non-throwing elbow - the quartet of C.J. Wilson, Joe Blanton, Jason Vargas, and Tommy Hanson screams of average pitching. Fortunately for the Halos, teams can survive the lengthy campaign on the strength of excellent pitching/defense or excellent offense, not requiring both. The Angels offense is second to none with three MVP-level talents in the top four spots and superb depth.
Player to Watch: Wilson. After a pair of elite campaigns in Texas, Wilson headed west to join the rival Angels and struggled through an average year in 2012. At 32, a return to the elite is just as likely as a career drop off. For the team to play into October, Wilson needs to be that 1B option behind Weaver.
3. Oakland
Projected Wins: 86
Explanation: The Athletics will have a good starting pitcher on the bump every night this year, a benefit that cannot be underestimated for a contender. Unfortunately, none of those pitchers are more than good, nor do they have ceilings beyond that level with the exception of young Jarrod Parker. The lineup is led by cornerstone talent Yoenis Cespedes. Sadly, Cespedes stands alone as an impact offensive talent, and the bottom of the Oakland lineup is truly awful. In another division, they might be a playoff team.
Player to Watch: Josh Reddick. The 26-year-old burst onto the scene in 2012, blasting 32 home runs and contributing superb right field defense. However, he managed only a .305 on-base percentage, so a rounding out of his offensive game is necessary for Reddick to stick as an everyday player over the long haul.
4. Seattle
Projected Wins: 73
Explanation: The Mariners are improving steadily, but a deeper starting rotation or lineup stands between them and contention. After Felix Hernandez, Seattle has depth in the rotation but no impact arms. Supreme prospects Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen should both appear in Seattle at some point during the 2013 season, but neither is expected to have a serious impact this year. The offense is improved with the addition of former Nationals masher Michael Morse, and it features solid depth via youthful talent in Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, and Kyle Seager. With Walker, Hultzen, and top catching prospect Mike Zunino on the scene, 2014 could be the year that the Mariners return to contention if the team can add a big, middle-of-the-order bat. Given the failure of first baseman Justin Smoak, a 1B/OF like Corey Hart could be a great fit.
Player to Watch: Even though 2013 is really about the development of the club's high-level minor league talent, Montero faces an early career crossroads. With questions about his ability to catch every day and his bat disappointing some thus far, the big, 23-year-old righty needs to rediscover his offensive profile.
5. Houston
Projected Wins: 58
Explanation: The Astros are incredibly bad. Jose Altuve is a good speed/batting average second baseman. Altuve will likely be Houston's only above-average player in 2013, and he might just be their only average player too. None of the very poor starting pitchers figure to be around in two years, and only stopgap power hitters Carlos Pena and Chris Carter could total average offensive production.
Player to Watch: Jason Castro. The former top pick showed some on-base ability in 2012 and a bit of pop, although he struggled behind the plate. He will be 26 in two months, so 2013 is a big year for determining whether he can be a decent regular or will be a fringe starter at best.
2013 National League West Predictions
Most predictions come out before the season starts. Now one week deep into the six month baseball season, fans have had a chance to see some games and get a sense for what each team has to offer. With that background, let's take a look at how each team can expect to do in 2013.
We'll begin with the National League West, a division that has captured two of the past three World Series titles.
* - Denotes wild card
NL West
1. Arizona
Projected Wins: 91
Explanation: Picking any team ahead of the Dodgers may be surprising to folks. Picking a team over the Dodgers and the defending champions just seems crazy. However, a deeper inquiry shows that the Diamondbacks have very strong pitching with a deep rotation and an even deeper bullpen. The offense is similarly deep with solid player following solid player, even if the unit lacks a big bat after the Justin Upton trade. These types of teams tend to thrive in 162-game seasons.
Player to Watch: Shortstop Cliff Pennington. Pennington has the fielding ability to stick in the major leagues as a decent starter, but his offense was dreadful in 2012. If he can return to his 2009-11 levels, the Arizona lineup would be without a hole.
2. *Los Angeles
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: The Dodgers have spent like crazy and on mostly good talent. But paychecks don't equal wins. The rotation features a pair of true aces at the top in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, complemented by the very good Chad Billingsley. However, that trio is followed by a number of key question marks. Hyun-jin Ryu comes over from South Korea with no big league experience, Josh Beckett appears to be at a career crossroads, and there is frustration among Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang that they need to compete for starting spots. Dissension could be an issue. The offense is a much, much larger problem. While Matt Kemp-Adrian Gonzalez-Andre Ethier is an enviable heart of the order, they are surrounded by the unreliable, injury-prone Carl Crawford and the truly dreadful Nick Punto and Luis Cruz. The Dodgers are plenty willing to spend, but they're going to have a hard time buying a left side of the infield mid-season.
Player to Watch: Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is expected to return in late May and with Punto holding down third base, he cannot get back soon enough for the Dodgers. Hanley has not been an impact player over the last two seasons so it is unlikely that he will be tremendous upon his return. But even solid production could be the difference for the Dodgers making it to October.
3. San Francisco
Projected Wins: 85
Explanation: The Giants will still pitch well in 2013 with Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, and Madison Bumgarner leading a rotation that includes contract-year former aces Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito. The bullpen looks solid too. But the offense just won't be enough in the 2013 NL West given the improved rosters in Arizona and Los Angeles.
Player to Watch: Lincecum. Remember the last time a two-time Cy Young Award winner hit free agency with so much uncertainty about his future?
4. Colorado
Projected Wins: 71
Explanation: The Rockies have a playoff-caliber lineup with a pair of stars, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, surrounded by a pair of good outfielders, Dexter Fowler and Michael Cuddyer. Unfortunately for the offense, the pitching may be the worst in the league with only closer Rafael Betancourt having any real value.
Player to Watch: Jorge de la Rosa. The 32-year-old de la Rosa put together a pair of nice years in 2008 and 2009, but he has made just 33 starts over the last three years. An impending free agent, he has a tremendous amount at stake for a middling team. Those players are interesting to track.
5. San Diego
Projected Wins: 67
Explanation: San Diego lacks impact talent. Between the rotation and the lineup, only third baseman Jedd Gyorko and center fielder Cameron Maybin have loud tools. There are a couple of decent prospects in the system but no big players expected to impact the big league club this season. Huston Street may want to keep his bags packed.
Player to Watch: Maybin. The former elite prospect is a valuable defender in San Diego's voluminous center field, but his offensive game took a step back in 2012. At 26, Maybin needs a power spike or on-base bump to round out as a player.
We'll begin with the National League West, a division that has captured two of the past three World Series titles.
* - Denotes wild card
NL West
1. Arizona
Projected Wins: 91
Explanation: Picking any team ahead of the Dodgers may be surprising to folks. Picking a team over the Dodgers and the defending champions just seems crazy. However, a deeper inquiry shows that the Diamondbacks have very strong pitching with a deep rotation and an even deeper bullpen. The offense is similarly deep with solid player following solid player, even if the unit lacks a big bat after the Justin Upton trade. These types of teams tend to thrive in 162-game seasons.
Player to Watch: Shortstop Cliff Pennington. Pennington has the fielding ability to stick in the major leagues as a decent starter, but his offense was dreadful in 2012. If he can return to his 2009-11 levels, the Arizona lineup would be without a hole.
2. *Los Angeles
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: The Dodgers have spent like crazy and on mostly good talent. But paychecks don't equal wins. The rotation features a pair of true aces at the top in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, complemented by the very good Chad Billingsley. However, that trio is followed by a number of key question marks. Hyun-jin Ryu comes over from South Korea with no big league experience, Josh Beckett appears to be at a career crossroads, and there is frustration among Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang that they need to compete for starting spots. Dissension could be an issue. The offense is a much, much larger problem. While Matt Kemp-Adrian Gonzalez-Andre Ethier is an enviable heart of the order, they are surrounded by the unreliable, injury-prone Carl Crawford and the truly dreadful Nick Punto and Luis Cruz. The Dodgers are plenty willing to spend, but they're going to have a hard time buying a left side of the infield mid-season.
Player to Watch: Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez is expected to return in late May and with Punto holding down third base, he cannot get back soon enough for the Dodgers. Hanley has not been an impact player over the last two seasons so it is unlikely that he will be tremendous upon his return. But even solid production could be the difference for the Dodgers making it to October.
3. San Francisco
Projected Wins: 85
Explanation: The Giants will still pitch well in 2013 with Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, and Madison Bumgarner leading a rotation that includes contract-year former aces Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito. The bullpen looks solid too. But the offense just won't be enough in the 2013 NL West given the improved rosters in Arizona and Los Angeles.
Player to Watch: Lincecum. Remember the last time a two-time Cy Young Award winner hit free agency with so much uncertainty about his future?
4. Colorado
Projected Wins: 71
Explanation: The Rockies have a playoff-caliber lineup with a pair of stars, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, surrounded by a pair of good outfielders, Dexter Fowler and Michael Cuddyer. Unfortunately for the offense, the pitching may be the worst in the league with only closer Rafael Betancourt having any real value.
Player to Watch: Jorge de la Rosa. The 32-year-old de la Rosa put together a pair of nice years in 2008 and 2009, but he has made just 33 starts over the last three years. An impending free agent, he has a tremendous amount at stake for a middling team. Those players are interesting to track.
5. San Diego
Projected Wins: 67
Explanation: San Diego lacks impact talent. Between the rotation and the lineup, only third baseman Jedd Gyorko and center fielder Cameron Maybin have loud tools. There are a couple of decent prospects in the system but no big players expected to impact the big league club this season. Huston Street may want to keep his bags packed.
Player to Watch: Maybin. The former elite prospect is a valuable defender in San Diego's voluminous center field, but his offensive game took a step back in 2012. At 26, Maybin needs a power spike or on-base bump to round out as a player.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Chicago Cubs: Starting Pitcher
*NOTE: With the pitching staff, I am going to be much more selective with which players receive mention. While every offensive player who had more than 100 plate appearances was named in the prior posts, there are simply too many pitchers to go through all of them in one post. As such, I will focus on those with a more realistic chance to make the majors and those who produced big statistical seasons.
Starting Pitcher
2012 Overview: A look at the 2012 starting pitching statistics is the most accurate snapshot of the Cubs. Just two pitchers started more than 25 games. The first, new ace Jeff Samardzija, enjoyed an excellent campaign allowing 157 hits and 56 walks over 174.2 innings, good for a 1.22 WHIP and complemented by 180 strikeouts. His 2.9 WAR tied him for 34th among starting pitchers with Jered Weaver and Rick Porcello. However, his xFIP of 3.38 - xFIP is his expected ERA based on his other rate stats - ranks 14th, tied with Gio Gonzalez and just one spot behind Justin Verlander.
The second, lefty Travis Wood, proved to be a big acquisition from the Reds in the Sean Marshall trade. Wood issued more walks than is ideal over his 156 innings, totaling 54. However, he allowed just 133 hits and tallied 119 strikeouts, good for a strong 1.20 WHIP. Wood's potential fatal flaw could be his home runs allowed as he gave up 25 in 2012.
The rotation had a much different look at the beginning of the season with Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Paul Maholm, and Chris Volstad all slated for jobs. At the end of his long tenure with the Cubs, Dempster was superb, production that the team parlayed into a mid-season trade to the Rangers for a pair of minor leaguers, 3B Christian Villanueva and SP Kyle Hendricks. Many Cub fans will wonder what might have been after Dempster nixed a reported deal that would have sent him to the Braves for elite prospect SP Randall Delgado.
Garza again pitched very well when healthy, but the injury bug bit him hard in 2012, limiting him to 18 starts. The same elbow injury that ended his season has him on the disabled list to start 2013 and could seriously limit his trade market mid-season. Nonetheless, he remains arguably the best starter on the team and a key part of the franchise going forward, whether by himself or in the form of the players obtained in his trade.
Maholm was surprisingly excellent in 2012, using great command and throwing piles of strikes as a means of making up for his lack of strikeout stuff. In July, the team sent him to Atlanta along with Reed Johnson in exchange for SP Arodys Vizcaino and RP fodder Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino figures to be a key part of the future for the Cubs, be it as a starter or a high-leverage reliever. He is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and should make a few appearances in Chicago in the last third of the season. Vizcaino's elite fastball and strong, power curveball should enable him to be an impact arm when he returns from injury.
Finally, Volstad suffered through a fantastically awful year. The former first-rounder managed just 61 strikeouts in 111.1 innings while allowing opponents to hit .306. His command was so poor that it called his career into question.
Randy Wells was also expected to compete for a rotation job, but the wheels came off for the steady righty in 2012. He was designated for assignment in July and signed by Texas in December.
In the second half of the season, the Cubs gave 29 starts to Justin Germano, Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley, Jason Berken, and Casey Coleman. Needless to say, those games ended poorly with Germano losing a stunning 10 games in 12 starts and Raley surrendering an 8.14 ERA.
Given the abject failure of spot starters in 2012, in comes as no surprise that Iowa's rotation was horrendous. Although Seth McClung mesmerized with his complete inability to get outs (3-15, 6.35 ERA, 1.81 WHIP), only Casey Coleman managed a WHIP below 1.40 among regular starters.
The story was not drastically better at Tennessee, but the Smokies did produce strong seasons from two starters. Nicholas Struck, a 39th-round-pick in the 2009 draft, continued his progression after struggling in his late-season call-up to Iowa in 2011. Struck threw 155.2 innings, allowing 140 hits and 44 walks with 123 strikeouts, good for a 1.18 WHIP. He also allowed only 14 home runs. He lacks a plus pitch, but features a low-90s fastball with sinking action, a decent slider, and a good change-up with solid command of all three pitches. Struck was joined by Eric Jokisch, a lanky lefty from Northwestern. Jokisch showed little strikeout ability at Tennessee, but managed to allow just 86 hits over 105 innings while issuing 33 walks after a mid-season call-up from Daytona. Jokisch's 1.13 WHIP was clearly the best among starters, although it's hard to project the soft-tossing lefty as anything more than a Doug Davis-type.
At the trade deadline, the team acquired Jacob Brigham from the Rangers in a deal that was conditioned on the health of Brigham's elbow; when the elbow flared up in the off-season, the teams moved to Plan B in which Brigham was returned to Texas for Barret Loux. Loux's story is already a twisting saga. He nearly signed with the Detroit Tigers in 2007 but opted to attend Texas A&M instead. The move paid off as he was chosen sixth overall in the 2010 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, his physical revealed a torn labrum and elbow damage that would likely require surgery, so Arizona refused to offer him a contract. Major League Baseball declared Loux a free agent and he signed with Texas. Loux was exceptional for AA-Frisco, winning the Texas League Pitcher of the Year award by going 14-1 in 127 innings, allowing 120 hits and 41 walks with 100 strikeouts. The 6'5", 230 lbs. righty features a low-90s fastball complemented by a deep but uninspiring group of off-speed pitches in a curveball, slider, and change-up. Unfortunately, many reports indicate that his arm ailments have begun to zap his fastball of its life, rendering him a ticking time bomb with a middle relief projection. If the arm somehow stays healthy, he could still have some projection.
Down at Daytona, the rotation pumped out a couple more interesting names. Lefty Austin Kirk, a 3rd-rounder in 2009, allowed just 138 hits across 152.2 innings at Daytona and Tennessee although he struggled with control in issuing 60 walks. At 22, he represents the club's best left-handed prospect. After being stretched across three levels in 2011, Matt Loosen spent all of 2012 in Daytona and delivered a fine year in 112.2 innings, with 83 hits and 46 walks allowed and 110 strikeouts. However, the fly ball pitcher figures to struggle as he climbs the organizational ladder and encounters more power hitters. 2010 40th-rounder P.J. Francescon enjoyed an excellent start to the year at Peoria which he followed with a solid performance at Daytona in the second half. Over 137.1 innings, he allowed just 111 hits and 38 walks, although his 95 strikeouts suggest that his stuff has a very low ceiling. Finally, signed as a 22-year-old Cuban free agent in 2011, Frank Del Valle features an explosive fastball in a 5'11" frame that he used to avoid hits in 2012. In his full-season debut in the US, Del Valle allowed a stunning 70 hits in 99.1 innings and while his 30 walks are more than ideal, the total is not frightening either. He should be pushed to remain in the rotation in 2013, but, at the very least, he may have a future as a reliever with a mid-90s fastball and hard curveball from the left side.
Two other pitchers who spent only a short time with the Daytona Cubs nonetheless deserve mention and could be parts of the future. The first, Kyle Hendricks, was acquired from the Rangers in the Ryan Dempster deadline trade. An 8th-round pick in 2011, the 6'3" righty has showed tremendous control as a professional. Since making his debut, Hendricks has issued just 24 walks in 183.1 innings while allowed 164 hits over the same span. Hendricks lacks a sexy arsenal with a high-80s fastball, developing cutter, and three solid off-speed pitches: a change-up, slider, and curveball. Despite a relatively low ceiling, his command thus far indicates that Hendricks may be a back-of-the-rotation option for a few years. He will play 2013 at 23 years old, so Tennessee presents a key challenge in his career. Joining him at Tennessee but having made his 2012 appearances at Daytona, Rob Whitenack exploded onto the prospect scene with an excellent 2011 that was cut short for Tommy John surgery. Prior to the procedure, Whitenack lacked a high-strikeout armory, but consistently limited hits with a low walk rate. Perhaps his best ability is inducing ground ball contact, thus avoiding home runs. Over four minor league seasons, Whitenack has allowed just 13 home runs in 309.1 innings. Unfortunately, his return from surgery went horribly in 2012, so the hope here is that Whitenack - who may never recover his mid-90s fastball - can get his fastball moving well again and reach his back-of-the-rotation projection.
Peoria lacked any truly inspiring starting pitching in 2012 with only a pair of arms deserving mention. The first, Gerardo Concepcion, is notable mostly because it is widely believed that his signing helped the team to sign fellow defector Jorge Soler. Concepcion was fantastically awful in 2012 with a 1.91 WHIP. The other starter, Ben Wells, was a 7th-round selection in 2011 and threw just 44 innings at Peoria. Nonetheless, in a system lacking projectible arms, Wells is near the top of the group. He has shown good control of a solid group of pitches featuring a low-90s sinking fastball, slider, splitter, and change-up. Wells's calling card is the sinking action on the fastball and he induced plenty of ground outs in 2012. He did have some elbow issues in 2012, so he needs to stay healthy in 2013 to log innings. His development is a bit more important than most pitchers due to a bizarre contractual clause that requires the Cubs to add him to their 40-man roster in 2013 despite his not being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until December 2014. Hopefully he enjoys a strong year and makes that decision easier.
Sadly, no pitchers of note emerged from Boise and the season in Arizona is so short, any performances there are hard to evaluate.
Fortunately, a handful of names from the 2012 draft and one from the 2011 draft offer some hope. Drafted in the 14-round and signed away from a University of North Carolina football commitment for $2.5M, Dillon Maples has arguably the best stuff of any prospect in the system. He has a boring low-to-mid-90s fastball in his 6'2" frame complemented by a power curveball. His command is very poor at this point due to a couple of injuries that have delayed his development. However, he is still only 21 this year, so a healthy season of logging innings can ignite his prospect star.
After drafting just two pitchers in the first 11 rounds of the 2011 draft - reliever Tony Zych and South African starter Tayler Scott - the new regime saw the desperate need to add pitching talent to the system and responded by following Albert Almora's selection with seven consecutive pitchers in the 2012 draft. Two high schoolers grabbed with the later of those picks - big righty Ryan McNeil and soft-tossing lefty Anthony Prieto - figure to have long development curves and mid-level ceilings. Unsurprisingly, the first three pitchers selected, two of them high schoolers as well, offer much higher projections.
Taken in the first compensation round, California teen Paul Blackburn has a nice three pitch mix with a mid-90s fastball supplemented by a good change-up and curveball. While Blackburn is raw, his ceiling is very high. With an even higher ceiling but even rawer, Duane Underwood came to the Cubs from a Georgia high school featuring a huge fastball and a pair of developing off-speed pitches. Underwood will not move quickly, but his development could be fun to follow as his fastball has big potential with a relatively fluid delivery. Finally, the team's top pitching pick, Missouri State's Pierce Johnson scared some teams with a pre-draft forearm strain, but he was healthy enough to make 6 post-draft starts for the Cubs with good results, showing strikeout ability while inducing lots of ground balls. Johnson also has a high ceiling and could move quickly as a collegiate arm.
2013 and Beyond: 2013 figures to be another year of transition for the team. The front office completely revamped the rotation in the off-season, bringing in Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, and injury reclamation project Scott Baker to fill out the group. The centerpiece acquisition, fireballer Edwin Jackson, figures to slide into the middle of the rotation and hold down a solid spot for the next four years. It seems likely that, yet again, the team will look to sell off useful parts at the trade deadline with most of the baseball world focused on Garza. The main problem for the Cubs is that, depending on how soon the team hopes to compete for the postseason, very few impact arms are available in free agency. Garza will likely be the most sought after player on the market this year, so the decision to trade or extend him likely speaks volumes about the team's 2014 outlook.
The team recently nabbed another mid-level prospect in Cuban Armando Rivero. Rivero throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball with some downward movement complemented well by a splitter and a slurvey breaking ball. A key issue: because he is 25 and has already played in the top Cuban league for four seasons, his $3.1M bonus was exempt from the team's bonus pool.
Overall Perception: Starting rotations are a fickle beast. Because of this, the value of a top-of-the-rotation stud has been made clear over the past few months with multiple $25M annual commitments made to aces. Samardzija - to the surprise of many - has the chance to enter that elite group, although it will require more improvement this year. Garza figures to remain a tier below that group, although his pitches are good enough for him to play up. Jackson is solidly a tier below as a slightly above-average innings eater. The remaining crop of Wood, Feldman, Villanueva, and Baker all figure to be solid, unspectacular arms. The team's rotation screams average this year, but a lengthy injury to or trade of Garza knocks it down a level.
The minor league situation is hardly inspiring, but there are finally some arms to dream on. Hurlers like Struck, Whitenack, Loux, Kirk, Hendricks, and Wells have lower ceilings but could combine to produce a back-end starter or two. But Vizcaino, Underwood, Johnson, Blackburn, and Maples have ceilings rarely seen in the Cubs system. Just as importantly, given the top prospects available in the 2013 draft, it seems likely that the team will bring in another arm with an enormous ceiling, be it Indiana State's Sean Manaea, Stanford's Mark Appel, or Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray. With one truly elite potential arm in tow, the minor league situation looks solid. Health remains a big concern - particularly for Vizcaino, Johnson, and Maples - but healthy seasons could have this group looking very good, albeit mostly in the lower minor leagues.
Final Rating: 5.5
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Previous entries
Relief Pitcher
Center Field
Corner Outfield
Shortstop
Third Base
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
Starting Pitcher
2012 Overview: A look at the 2012 starting pitching statistics is the most accurate snapshot of the Cubs. Just two pitchers started more than 25 games. The first, new ace Jeff Samardzija, enjoyed an excellent campaign allowing 157 hits and 56 walks over 174.2 innings, good for a 1.22 WHIP and complemented by 180 strikeouts. His 2.9 WAR tied him for 34th among starting pitchers with Jered Weaver and Rick Porcello. However, his xFIP of 3.38 - xFIP is his expected ERA based on his other rate stats - ranks 14th, tied with Gio Gonzalez and just one spot behind Justin Verlander.
The second, lefty Travis Wood, proved to be a big acquisition from the Reds in the Sean Marshall trade. Wood issued more walks than is ideal over his 156 innings, totaling 54. However, he allowed just 133 hits and tallied 119 strikeouts, good for a strong 1.20 WHIP. Wood's potential fatal flaw could be his home runs allowed as he gave up 25 in 2012.
The rotation had a much different look at the beginning of the season with Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Paul Maholm, and Chris Volstad all slated for jobs. At the end of his long tenure with the Cubs, Dempster was superb, production that the team parlayed into a mid-season trade to the Rangers for a pair of minor leaguers, 3B Christian Villanueva and SP Kyle Hendricks. Many Cub fans will wonder what might have been after Dempster nixed a reported deal that would have sent him to the Braves for elite prospect SP Randall Delgado.
Garza again pitched very well when healthy, but the injury bug bit him hard in 2012, limiting him to 18 starts. The same elbow injury that ended his season has him on the disabled list to start 2013 and could seriously limit his trade market mid-season. Nonetheless, he remains arguably the best starter on the team and a key part of the franchise going forward, whether by himself or in the form of the players obtained in his trade.
Maholm was surprisingly excellent in 2012, using great command and throwing piles of strikes as a means of making up for his lack of strikeout stuff. In July, the team sent him to Atlanta along with Reed Johnson in exchange for SP Arodys Vizcaino and RP fodder Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino figures to be a key part of the future for the Cubs, be it as a starter or a high-leverage reliever. He is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and should make a few appearances in Chicago in the last third of the season. Vizcaino's elite fastball and strong, power curveball should enable him to be an impact arm when he returns from injury.
Finally, Volstad suffered through a fantastically awful year. The former first-rounder managed just 61 strikeouts in 111.1 innings while allowing opponents to hit .306. His command was so poor that it called his career into question.
Randy Wells was also expected to compete for a rotation job, but the wheels came off for the steady righty in 2012. He was designated for assignment in July and signed by Texas in December.
In the second half of the season, the Cubs gave 29 starts to Justin Germano, Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley, Jason Berken, and Casey Coleman. Needless to say, those games ended poorly with Germano losing a stunning 10 games in 12 starts and Raley surrendering an 8.14 ERA.
Given the abject failure of spot starters in 2012, in comes as no surprise that Iowa's rotation was horrendous. Although Seth McClung mesmerized with his complete inability to get outs (3-15, 6.35 ERA, 1.81 WHIP), only Casey Coleman managed a WHIP below 1.40 among regular starters.
The story was not drastically better at Tennessee, but the Smokies did produce strong seasons from two starters. Nicholas Struck, a 39th-round-pick in the 2009 draft, continued his progression after struggling in his late-season call-up to Iowa in 2011. Struck threw 155.2 innings, allowing 140 hits and 44 walks with 123 strikeouts, good for a 1.18 WHIP. He also allowed only 14 home runs. He lacks a plus pitch, but features a low-90s fastball with sinking action, a decent slider, and a good change-up with solid command of all three pitches. Struck was joined by Eric Jokisch, a lanky lefty from Northwestern. Jokisch showed little strikeout ability at Tennessee, but managed to allow just 86 hits over 105 innings while issuing 33 walks after a mid-season call-up from Daytona. Jokisch's 1.13 WHIP was clearly the best among starters, although it's hard to project the soft-tossing lefty as anything more than a Doug Davis-type.
At the trade deadline, the team acquired Jacob Brigham from the Rangers in a deal that was conditioned on the health of Brigham's elbow; when the elbow flared up in the off-season, the teams moved to Plan B in which Brigham was returned to Texas for Barret Loux. Loux's story is already a twisting saga. He nearly signed with the Detroit Tigers in 2007 but opted to attend Texas A&M instead. The move paid off as he was chosen sixth overall in the 2010 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, his physical revealed a torn labrum and elbow damage that would likely require surgery, so Arizona refused to offer him a contract. Major League Baseball declared Loux a free agent and he signed with Texas. Loux was exceptional for AA-Frisco, winning the Texas League Pitcher of the Year award by going 14-1 in 127 innings, allowing 120 hits and 41 walks with 100 strikeouts. The 6'5", 230 lbs. righty features a low-90s fastball complemented by a deep but uninspiring group of off-speed pitches in a curveball, slider, and change-up. Unfortunately, many reports indicate that his arm ailments have begun to zap his fastball of its life, rendering him a ticking time bomb with a middle relief projection. If the arm somehow stays healthy, he could still have some projection.
Down at Daytona, the rotation pumped out a couple more interesting names. Lefty Austin Kirk, a 3rd-rounder in 2009, allowed just 138 hits across 152.2 innings at Daytona and Tennessee although he struggled with control in issuing 60 walks. At 22, he represents the club's best left-handed prospect. After being stretched across three levels in 2011, Matt Loosen spent all of 2012 in Daytona and delivered a fine year in 112.2 innings, with 83 hits and 46 walks allowed and 110 strikeouts. However, the fly ball pitcher figures to struggle as he climbs the organizational ladder and encounters more power hitters. 2010 40th-rounder P.J. Francescon enjoyed an excellent start to the year at Peoria which he followed with a solid performance at Daytona in the second half. Over 137.1 innings, he allowed just 111 hits and 38 walks, although his 95 strikeouts suggest that his stuff has a very low ceiling. Finally, signed as a 22-year-old Cuban free agent in 2011, Frank Del Valle features an explosive fastball in a 5'11" frame that he used to avoid hits in 2012. In his full-season debut in the US, Del Valle allowed a stunning 70 hits in 99.1 innings and while his 30 walks are more than ideal, the total is not frightening either. He should be pushed to remain in the rotation in 2013, but, at the very least, he may have a future as a reliever with a mid-90s fastball and hard curveball from the left side.
Two other pitchers who spent only a short time with the Daytona Cubs nonetheless deserve mention and could be parts of the future. The first, Kyle Hendricks, was acquired from the Rangers in the Ryan Dempster deadline trade. An 8th-round pick in 2011, the 6'3" righty has showed tremendous control as a professional. Since making his debut, Hendricks has issued just 24 walks in 183.1 innings while allowed 164 hits over the same span. Hendricks lacks a sexy arsenal with a high-80s fastball, developing cutter, and three solid off-speed pitches: a change-up, slider, and curveball. Despite a relatively low ceiling, his command thus far indicates that Hendricks may be a back-of-the-rotation option for a few years. He will play 2013 at 23 years old, so Tennessee presents a key challenge in his career. Joining him at Tennessee but having made his 2012 appearances at Daytona, Rob Whitenack exploded onto the prospect scene with an excellent 2011 that was cut short for Tommy John surgery. Prior to the procedure, Whitenack lacked a high-strikeout armory, but consistently limited hits with a low walk rate. Perhaps his best ability is inducing ground ball contact, thus avoiding home runs. Over four minor league seasons, Whitenack has allowed just 13 home runs in 309.1 innings. Unfortunately, his return from surgery went horribly in 2012, so the hope here is that Whitenack - who may never recover his mid-90s fastball - can get his fastball moving well again and reach his back-of-the-rotation projection.
Peoria lacked any truly inspiring starting pitching in 2012 with only a pair of arms deserving mention. The first, Gerardo Concepcion, is notable mostly because it is widely believed that his signing helped the team to sign fellow defector Jorge Soler. Concepcion was fantastically awful in 2012 with a 1.91 WHIP. The other starter, Ben Wells, was a 7th-round selection in 2011 and threw just 44 innings at Peoria. Nonetheless, in a system lacking projectible arms, Wells is near the top of the group. He has shown good control of a solid group of pitches featuring a low-90s sinking fastball, slider, splitter, and change-up. Wells's calling card is the sinking action on the fastball and he induced plenty of ground outs in 2012. He did have some elbow issues in 2012, so he needs to stay healthy in 2013 to log innings. His development is a bit more important than most pitchers due to a bizarre contractual clause that requires the Cubs to add him to their 40-man roster in 2013 despite his not being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until December 2014. Hopefully he enjoys a strong year and makes that decision easier.
Sadly, no pitchers of note emerged from Boise and the season in Arizona is so short, any performances there are hard to evaluate.
Fortunately, a handful of names from the 2012 draft and one from the 2011 draft offer some hope. Drafted in the 14-round and signed away from a University of North Carolina football commitment for $2.5M, Dillon Maples has arguably the best stuff of any prospect in the system. He has a boring low-to-mid-90s fastball in his 6'2" frame complemented by a power curveball. His command is very poor at this point due to a couple of injuries that have delayed his development. However, he is still only 21 this year, so a healthy season of logging innings can ignite his prospect star.
After drafting just two pitchers in the first 11 rounds of the 2011 draft - reliever Tony Zych and South African starter Tayler Scott - the new regime saw the desperate need to add pitching talent to the system and responded by following Albert Almora's selection with seven consecutive pitchers in the 2012 draft. Two high schoolers grabbed with the later of those picks - big righty Ryan McNeil and soft-tossing lefty Anthony Prieto - figure to have long development curves and mid-level ceilings. Unsurprisingly, the first three pitchers selected, two of them high schoolers as well, offer much higher projections.
Taken in the first compensation round, California teen Paul Blackburn has a nice three pitch mix with a mid-90s fastball supplemented by a good change-up and curveball. While Blackburn is raw, his ceiling is very high. With an even higher ceiling but even rawer, Duane Underwood came to the Cubs from a Georgia high school featuring a huge fastball and a pair of developing off-speed pitches. Underwood will not move quickly, but his development could be fun to follow as his fastball has big potential with a relatively fluid delivery. Finally, the team's top pitching pick, Missouri State's Pierce Johnson scared some teams with a pre-draft forearm strain, but he was healthy enough to make 6 post-draft starts for the Cubs with good results, showing strikeout ability while inducing lots of ground balls. Johnson also has a high ceiling and could move quickly as a collegiate arm.
2013 and Beyond: 2013 figures to be another year of transition for the team. The front office completely revamped the rotation in the off-season, bringing in Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva, and injury reclamation project Scott Baker to fill out the group. The centerpiece acquisition, fireballer Edwin Jackson, figures to slide into the middle of the rotation and hold down a solid spot for the next four years. It seems likely that, yet again, the team will look to sell off useful parts at the trade deadline with most of the baseball world focused on Garza. The main problem for the Cubs is that, depending on how soon the team hopes to compete for the postseason, very few impact arms are available in free agency. Garza will likely be the most sought after player on the market this year, so the decision to trade or extend him likely speaks volumes about the team's 2014 outlook.
The team recently nabbed another mid-level prospect in Cuban Armando Rivero. Rivero throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball with some downward movement complemented well by a splitter and a slurvey breaking ball. A key issue: because he is 25 and has already played in the top Cuban league for four seasons, his $3.1M bonus was exempt from the team's bonus pool.
Overall Perception: Starting rotations are a fickle beast. Because of this, the value of a top-of-the-rotation stud has been made clear over the past few months with multiple $25M annual commitments made to aces. Samardzija - to the surprise of many - has the chance to enter that elite group, although it will require more improvement this year. Garza figures to remain a tier below that group, although his pitches are good enough for him to play up. Jackson is solidly a tier below as a slightly above-average innings eater. The remaining crop of Wood, Feldman, Villanueva, and Baker all figure to be solid, unspectacular arms. The team's rotation screams average this year, but a lengthy injury to or trade of Garza knocks it down a level.
The minor league situation is hardly inspiring, but there are finally some arms to dream on. Hurlers like Struck, Whitenack, Loux, Kirk, Hendricks, and Wells have lower ceilings but could combine to produce a back-end starter or two. But Vizcaino, Underwood, Johnson, Blackburn, and Maples have ceilings rarely seen in the Cubs system. Just as importantly, given the top prospects available in the 2013 draft, it seems likely that the team will bring in another arm with an enormous ceiling, be it Indiana State's Sean Manaea, Stanford's Mark Appel, or Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray. With one truly elite potential arm in tow, the minor league situation looks solid. Health remains a big concern - particularly for Vizcaino, Johnson, and Maples - but healthy seasons could have this group looking very good, albeit mostly in the lower minor leagues.
Final Rating: 5.5
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Previous entries
Relief Pitcher
Center Field
Corner Outfield
Shortstop
Third Base
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
Monday, April 1, 2013
Chicago Cubs: Relief Pitcher
*NOTE: With the pitching staff, I am going to be much more selective with which players receive mention. While every offensive player who had more than 100 plate appearances was named in the prior posts, there are simply too many pitchers to go through all of them in one post. As such, I will focus on those with a more realistic chance to make the majors and those who produced big statistical seasons.
Relief Pitcher
2012 Overview: The back end of the bullpen proved to be an absolute mess for the first part of 2012, but the group actually settled in nicely during the second half. No individual embodied this reality more than closer Carlos Marmol. He was horrendous prior to the All-Star break, allowing 20 hits and issuing 28 walks in 25.2 innings, although he did have 33 strikeouts. After the break, he allowed 20 hits again but cut his walks to 17 despite pitching four more innings than he had previously; he add 39 strikeouts after the break.
Middle reliever Shawn Camp had the opposite experience, throwing 45 pre-break innings with 39 hits, 10 walks, and 34 strikeouts whereas he struggled through 32.2 post-break innings with 40 hits, 11 walks, and just 20 strikeouts. Camp was never dominant; however, he did help stabilize what was an extremely shaky unit.
Lefty James Russell solidified himself as an above-average reliever, putting together a very solid year with a 1.30 WHIP and 55 strikeouts in 69.1 innings.
Unfortunately for the Cubs, Russell was the only lefty (and only reliever other than Camp) who maintained a job throughout 2012. Journeyman Manny Corpas was below-average, a roster filler. Youngster Rafael Dolis showed a power arsenal with no command, walking 23 batters in just 38 innings. Prospect Alberto Cabrera also struggled with his control with 18 walks in 21.2 innings, although Cabrera showed more strikeout ability notching 27. Organizational depth players like Scott Maine, Casey Coleman, Jaye Chapman, and Jeff Beliveau all made at least 14 appearances with poor results.
Two young pitchers did show some promise in limiited 2012 appearances. Michael Bowden, acquired after being designated for assignment by the Red Sox, pitched well in 36.2 innings allowing 30 hits and 16 walks while striking out 29. The former first-round pick is already 26 but should maintain a job. At a different point in his career, Rule 5 Draft selection Lendy Castillo pitched just 16 innings with horrendous results. Yet the 23-year-old showed bursts of potential and will have the chance to develop in the minors in 2013.
Down in Iowa, both Esmailin Caridad (29) and Blake Parker (28) pitched to strong campaigns, but neither project as more than fringe middle relievers when pitching their best.
Four names stand out from Tennessee. Converted starter Trey McNutt - the club's former top pitching prospect - moved to the bullpen but continued his downslide. 2013 is certainly a make-or-break year for McNutt as he is yet to harness his power arsenal. Kevin Rhoderick struggled more with control in 2012; despite his high strikeout total, his control has stagnated his career. Closer Frank Batista turned 23 last April and followed with another strong year as a closer with only 38 hits allowed in 52.2 IP and 21 walks. While he lacks big strikeout potential, he has a solid chance to reach the majors. Finally, 2011 fourth-rounder Tony Zych put together a strong year across Daytona and Tennessee over 61.1 IP, allowing 58 hits and 19 walks while striking out 64. At just 22, Zych has a big league future and may be the club's best true-relief prospect.
Sadly, Daytona produced just one reliever who enjoyed a strong 2012. A.J. Morris - who just turned 26 - was terrific against the younger competition, going 52.1 innings with 36 hits allowed, 15 walks, and 42 strikeouts. 2010 top pick Hayden Simpson completed his flop with a laughable 2.07 WHIP before being released this spring.
A couple of names popped up at Peoria. 21-year-old closer Yao-Lin Wang enjoyed a solid campaign with big strikeout totals (82 in 78 innings) but lacked a great ability to keep runners off base (1.27 WHIP). Converted outfielder Kyler Burke had a great 1.07 WHIP without strikeout stuff, but struggled upon his call-up to Daytona. 22-year-old lefty Jeffry Antigua split the year between Peoria and Tennessee showing a consistent ability to retire batters with plenty of strikeouts at both levels. Antigua has moved well as a one-level-at-a-time player.
While a couple of pitchers produced well at even lower levels - such as Eduardo Orozco, Michael Heesch, and Brian Smith - they did so over such short spans and against such low-level competition that it is nearly impossible to evaluate their performances.
The team did make a big acquisition in July, signing Dominican Juan Carlos Paniagua to a $1.5M bonus. Paniagua previously signed with the Diamondbacks and Yankees, yet both contracts were voided due to identity fraud. If Paniagua manages to stick, his low-to-mid 90s fastball is complemented by a good changeup, and a vastly improved slider. At 22, Paniagua seems unlikely to be given the opportunity to start, so he could move quickly in the bullpen if his command improves.
2013 and Beyond: Marmol is set to earn $9.8M in 2013 and he will start the year back in the closer's role. It is unlikely that he ends the year there as the volatile reliever will have more value for a contender if he pitches well. The bullpen figures to be very tumultuous again in 2013, with Russell and Bowden the only holdovers presumably assured of opportunities to pitch. Newcomer Hisanori Takahashi figures to get chances as a lefty.
The team did sign former Japanese closer Kyuji Fujikawa to a two year, $9M deal. The 32-year-old features a declining, yet still good, fastball and a power splitter. He occasionally throws a breaking pitch as well. Fujikawa figures to take over the closer's role when Marmol leaves, whether that is mid-season or at the end of 2013.
The team also inked Korean reliever Chang-Yong Lim. Lim is recovering from his second Tommy John surgery and will not pitch for the team until 2014. Lim turned down offers from the Red Sox and Rangers to join the Cubs, so there is some hope that he can contribute a year or two of production. However, at 36, expectations are extremely low.
The unit will hopefully be completed by an overflow starting pitcher or two as the Cubs should have seven starters if everyone is healthy at the same time. If all of the starters do manage to get healthy, suddenly the group doesn't look so bad with Marmol, Fujikawa, Russell, Camp, Bowden, and two starters as long relievers. That's a bit too idealistic for my taste.
Overall Perception: Yuck. It's just a horrendous group with only a handful of MLB-caliber pitchers, let alone strong arms in the back. Having recognized the complete dearth of bullpen arms, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer made a really nice acquisition in Fujikawa. Even if he flops, he was worth the minimal investment and Japanese relievers have experienced quite a bit of success over the years. Paniagua is an intriguing option who could explode or implode this year and Antigua continues to climb. But barring a breakout campaign from McNutt or Burke exploding in his second full year on the mound, there isn't much in the pipeline either.
Final Rating: 1.5
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Previous entries
Center Field
Corner Outfield
Shortstop
Third Base
Second Base
First Base
Catcher
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