Chicago Bears 2024 Mock Offseason: January 2024 Caleb Williams Edition

No big updates since the earlier January mock, so away we go.

Internal Decisions
As with prior mocks, the big cuts are easy: S Eddie Jackson ($5.58M dead cap), G Cody Whitehair ($4.104M), and RB Travis Homer ($0.225M). Dead cap total after those cuts: $11.768M. I actually think that Velus Jones Jr. will stick around as a special teamer and converted RB or a bottom-of-the-chart WR. We'll see. Velus is a plus KR when it gets cold and kickoffs don't carry the endzone in Chicago. That's nice in December and could be clutch in January if the Bears ever play into January again.

With an adjusted cap of $247.427M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $150.925M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $80.734M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Justin Fields

I've been somewhere in the neighborhood of 70/30 or 60/40 to keep Fields for a while now. But as I keep digging into the draft prep, it's tougher to maintain this position. I could be anywhere from 60/40 to 40/60 these days, depending on the individual day. So, let's try a mock taking Williams.

That brings up the matter of Fields' trade value. On one hand, Fields has never been a plus passer in the NFL, stunting his value. On the other hand, Fields is an ultra-elite runner and has improved as a passer each year as the supporting cast has improved around him. Further helping his value: numerous teams are in need of a QB upgrade and it's pretty easy to make the argument that Fields would be better in many other, non-Chicago offenses, especially having undergone plenty of NFL seasoning with the Bears. So, with that in mind, here are the trade packages I think that the Bears can get for Fields:

• From Pittsburgh: #20 overall and #119 OR #20 overall and a 2025 3rd
• From Seattle: #16 overall
• From Las Vegas: #13 overall
• From Atlanta: #8 overall; Chicago sends back #110 alongside Fields
• From New York Giants: #39 overall and #47 overall OR #6 overall with Chicago sending back #75 overall alongside Fields
• From New England: #34 overall and #68 overall

Denver would seemingly make sense as a trade partner, but they probably can't justify an additional significant draft outlay for a QB after making the disastrous Russell Wilson deal so recently.

There's a lot of rumors suggesting that the Bears would only get a 2nd or even perhaps a 3rd+4th back for Fields. I just don't buy it. The QB market is extremely rich. Sam Darnold fetched a 6th, plus a 2nd and a 4th in the next draft. Surely Fields is worth a good deal more than Darnold.

Free Agency

Quick hits with projections from PFF:

• Franchise tag for CB Jaylon Johnson (1/$20M) while attempting to extend him
• Sign S Xavier McKinney (3/$25M with $17M guaranteed)
• Sign C Andre James (3/$24M with $13M guaranteed) 
• Sign WR Curtis Samuel (2/$18M with $12M guaranteed)
• Sign DE Jadeveon Clowney (1/$9M, all guaranteed)
• Sign WR Equanimeous St. Brown (1/$2M)

The most important goals this offseason are (i) keeping a home-grown star, (ii) bringing in a veteran starting C after years of awful play at the pivot, and (iii) adding another boost to the pass rush. Johnson, James, and Clowney check those boxes.

Based purely on AAVs, the above spending spree would utilize $56.333M of cap space. This should leave plenty for the draft class.

Draft

The main purpose for this article, as it will be every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool.

Here we go again, this time with Williams leading the way.

Bears trade QB Justin Fields to Las Vegas for #13 overall

It's a terrible landing spot for Fields. I'd rather get a mid-round pick from Las Vegas this year and their 2025 1st. But this works.

#1: USC QB Caleb Williams

The Williams hype machine is in full force. Williams has a true #1 pick pedigree after half a decade of being the top player in his class dating to his time at Gonzaga HS in Washington, DC alongside star Penn State LT Olu Fashanu. Williams has every bit the arm that Fields has, and while his running ability is a tick below Fields, it's plenty helpful. Add in that Williams can grow with a young, improving offensive core in Chicago and the future is bright. I have no doubt that Williams will win over the Bears' locker room. He's a dynamic playmaker and those guys tend to win fans, even if the initial adjustment from the wildly-popular Fields is bumpy.

#9: Washington WR Rome Odunze 

There are very few hard and fast rules in the draft. One of those rules: if you draft a rookie QB, give him an elite toy. With Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Brock Bowers off the board, I eschewed a future 1st from Tampa Bay in exchange for locking in Odunze.

Bears trade #13 to Cincinnati for #18, a 2025 2nd, and a 2025 3rd

All four of Illinois DT Jer'Zhan Newton, Florida State DE Jared Verse, Penn State DE Chop Robinson, and UCLA DE Laiatu Latu were on the board, so this trade offered too much to pass up.

#18: Penn State DE Chop Robinson 

I would've loved to trade down again -- New England offered #68 and a 2025 2nd to drop from #18 to #34 -- but I couldn't risk missing out on a DE with Verse and Latu both off the board. So, even with Newton on the board, Chop comes to Chicago.

Bears trade #75 to Pittsburgh for #84 and #115

I regretted this deal as soon as I made it. West Virginia C Zach Frazier, Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley, Oregon RB Bucky Irving, Utah S Cole Bishop, and North Carolina WR Tez Walker were all on the board when I made the deal. Almost all of them were picked before #84...but not actually all of them!

#84: West Virginia C Zach Frazier

Frazier is a great prospect and steps in immediately as the top interior OL backup.

#106: Washington State S Jaden Hicks

This is decent enough value for Hicks, but more than anything else, this pick was about need.

Bears trade #115 to Pittsburgh for #116 and #212

I'll take a free pick.

#116: Florida State DT Braden Fiske 

The Western Michigan transfer likely won't overwhelm anyone at the Combine, but he's highly productive and his undersized nature won't hurt him in the Eberflus scheme.

#118: Florida WR Ricky Pearsall 

I don't love Pearsall, but he is slowly growing on me. He does some nice things and would be a solid addition in the back of the WR room.

#137: Colorado State TE Dallin Holker

I'd love to find a complete TE to add behind Cole Kmet. Holker is not that TE. But he's a nice red zone receiving target and it's tougher to find receiving options in big bodies.

#212: Iowa P Tory Taylor

There's no way that Taylor makes it to the 7th. If that inexplicably happens, the Bears should absolutely upgrade over Trenton Gill.

Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:

1st (CHI)

2nd (CAR)

2nd (CIN)

2nd (CHI)

3rd (CIN)

3rd (CHI)

4th (CHI)

5th (CHI)

6th (CHI)

6th (MIA)

And in 2026, the Bears would have their own full allotment plus a 1st from Atlanta.

Final Roster

New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded (including Harrison). Here's the 53:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, Khari Blasingame

TE (4): Cole Kmet, Dallin Holker, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Curtis Samuel, Tyler Scott, Equanimeous St. Brown, Ricky Pearsall

OT (3): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Larry Borom

OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ja'Tyre Carter

C   (2): Andre James, Zach Frazier

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Jadeveon Clowney, Chop Robinson, DeMarcus Walker, Dominique Robinson

DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Braden Fiske, FREE AGENT

ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S    (5): Jaquan Brisker, Xavier McKinney, Jaden Hicks, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones

ST (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, Patrick Scales

Taking Williams at #1 overall really stunts my ability to accrue numerous picks to fill holes. But, if Williams turns out to be an upgrade over Fields, it'll be worth it.

Chicago Bears 2024 Mock Offseason: January 2024 Edition

There are big updates since the last offseason update. Namely:

• The Bears earned the #1 overall pick from the Panthers and #9 from themselves.
• Dolphins C Connor Williams tore his ACL.
• Justin Fields stacked a strong stretch of play after returning from injury, compiling QBRs of 71.2, 40.4, 64.8, 18 (with two picks on Hail Marys skewing this number somewhat), 63, 64.9, and 56.5. Prior to his injury, he posted four QBRs under 20 in his six starts.

One more important note: this mock offseason is what I want to see, not what I think the Bears will do.

Internal Decisions
As with prior mocks, the big cuts are easy: S Eddie Jackson ($5.58M dead cap), G Cody Whitehair ($4.104M), and RB Travis Homer ($0.225M). Dead cap total after those cuts: $11.768M. I actually think that Velus Jones Jr. will stick around as a special teamer and converted RB. We'll see.

With an adjusted cap of $247.427M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $150.925M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $80.734M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Justin Fields

Fields has surely improved his trade value dramatically over the past month or so. Whereas it might have been a couple of 3rds a month ago, it's likely a 2nd and a 3rd with the possibility of sniffing a 1st at this point.

But securing the #1 overall pick significantly complicates the decision with what to do with Fields.

If the decision was purely financial, Fields would remain the guy. The value offered by the bevy of picks attainable in a trade-down scenario would enable the Bears to litter the roster with cheap talent around Fields, even with his enhanced earnings in the coming years.

If the decision was about the locker room's preference, Fields would be the guy. He is clearly loved and has earned the respect of his teammates.

If, on the other hand, the decision is about the QB's ceiling...I'm not sure which direction this thing should go. Caleb Williams makes tons of plays, but he makes them in a way that is very similar to Fields, extending plays with his legs before looking downfield.

If Williams was the choice, any sensible team would move on from Matt Eberflus and let a new coach draft their own QB. The Bears...are not that team. Similarly, any sensible team that elects to keep their 3rd year coach would also then keep their QB. The Bears...might be that team? Who knows?

I'm keeping Fields. Even with the growing pains along the way and despite the fact that Fields' collegiate success was surely fueled in part by the outrageously talented rosters on which he played at Ohio State, I still think there is a second quartile QB in Fields and that's more than enough for sustained success. Fields has a plus NFL arm and an incredible physical profile that enables him to survive in chaotic situations, especially given his leg strength which makes him extremely difficult to sack. I'm sticking with Fields and sticking a big "For Sale" sign in the lawn at Halas Hall with the #1 overall pick on it.

Free Agency

Quick hits with projections from PFF:

• Franchise tag for CB Jaylon Johnson (1/$20M) while attempting to extend him
• Sign S Xavier McKinney (3/$25M with $17M guaranteed)
• Sign C Andre James (3/$24M with $13M guaranteed) 
• Sign WR Curtis Samuel (2/$18M with $12M guaranteed)
• Sign DE Jadeveon Clowney (1/$9M, all guaranteed)
• Sign WR Equanimeous St. Brown (1/$2M)

The most important goals this offseason are (i) keeping a home-grown star, (ii) bringing in a veteran starting C for Fields after years of awful play at the pivot, and (iii) adding another boost to the pass rush. Johnson, James, and Clowney check those boxes.

Based purely on AAVs, the above spending spree would utilize $56.333M of cap space. This should leave plenty for the draft class.

Draft

The main purpose for this article, as it will be every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool.

Here we go again.

CBS recently mocked the Bears moving back one spot to #2 in exchange for #41 and a 2025 1st from Washington. That'd be great. PFN suggests a trade from #1 to #3 with New England that brings back #34, #68, a 2025 1st, and a 2025 2nd. That's the winner for me...as a first deal...unless someone else ponies up a deal that is simply too good to pass up. And that's where the Atlanta Falcons could come into play. Atlanta has all of their own picks in the first five rounds for the next three drafts and have an extra 3rd incoming this year from Jacksonville for the Calvin Ridley trade. Atlanta has a decent roster in a mess of a division, so a move for a franchise QB could catapult them to the top. To make matters even better, they have a pair of recent DE draftees in Arnold Ebiketie and Zach Harrison that could be the sweeteners that the Bears desire, presuming that WR Drake London is off limits.

Bears trade #1 to Atlanta for #8, #43, #74, a 2025 1st, a 2025 2nd, a 2026 1st, and DE Zach Harrison

Atlanta makes their move for Williams and the Bears secure a bounty. Because Atlanta figures to be substantially better in 2024 than Carolina was in 2023, the Bears are able to extract that 2026 1st. Compared to last year's haul, the picks are of similar value while Harrison is surely less valuable than D.J. Moore, though his paltry contract comes with significant value.

If this trade isn't available, I'd prefer to see the Bears deal with the Raiders. They are a dumpster fire of an organization whose future picks figure to be exceptionally valuable. But the drop from #1 to #13 would require the kind of massive haul (picks + DE Maxx Crosby) that Vegas is unlikely to stomach.

#8: Washington WR Rome Odunze

I desperately want to come out of this draft with one of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Odunze. Odunze and Nabers are neck-and-neck for me, so I'm ecstatic to get Odunze here. He's big, he's fast, he's fluid, and his catch radius is massive. I eschewed some excellent trade proposals, made easier by...

Bears trade #9 to New York Jets for #10 and #72

Free pick. Nice!

Bears trade #10 to Tampa Bay for #20, a 2025 1st, and a 2025 6th

Woah. This was the spot that gave me the most trouble. I had to pass on blue chippers like DE Dallas Turner, DT Jer'Zhan Newton, DE Chop Robinson, DE Laiatu Latu, and DE Jared Verse to make this deal. But that 2025 1st is just too juicy. The Bucs came up for LSU QB Jayden Daniels, as expected.

Bears trade #20 to Arizona for #21 and a 2025 3rd

Well, all three of Newton, Latu, and Verse were still on the board. Grab another pick!

#21: Florida State DE Jared Verse

Verse v. Latu is a fun decision to make! Both have good frames, tremendous motors, and spent a lot of time playing a stand-up DE role in college. Both are also age 23 already. Verse seems to play a bit bigger, so I went with him. But either would be a great addition for the Bears.

#43: South Carolina WR Xavier Legette

Legette shows up in a ton of my mocks. He's DK Metcalf 2.0. He would offer the Bears the kind of big-bodied receiver they haven't had since his fellow Gamecock, Alshon Jeffery, led the receiving room.

Bears trade #72 to Washington for #96 and a 2025 3rd

In this mock, Washington took MHJ in the first before nabbing Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders in the 2nd. Their 2025 3rd could be higher than #72, so getting that pick in addition to #96 was too good to pass up, especially with two more picks coming shortly thereafter. Unfortunately they did draft one of my favorites here in Oregon RB Bucky Irving.

#74: Utah S Cole Bishop

Bishop sure looks like an early-to-mid second rounder come draft day, but as of now, he's available here. Holy smokes, what a great looking, crazy athletic prospect.

#75: Michigan DT Kris Jenkins

Another plus addition to a burgeoning DT group.

#96: Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson

This pick was supposed to be Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie, but Pittsburgh nabbed him two picks earlier. Fortunately, Powers-Johnson is a great value here and immediately becomes the top interior OL backup.

#106: Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott

I didn't love any of the TEs in this spot, but I liked them considerably more than the TEs who figured to be available in the 5th. Sinnott appears to move much better than Ohio State's Cade Stover, so he is the pick.

#121: Oregon CB Khyree Jackson

Jackson has great length and good production. He's a good fit in this spot.

#137: Michigan RB Blake Corum

I don't know what Corum becomes as a pro. But there's a chance that his bowling ball physique and style of play works at the next level. This is a fine time to take that chance.

Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:

1st (ATL)

1st (TB)

1st (CHI)

2nd (CAR)

2nd (ATL)

2nd (CHI)

3rd (ARZ)

3rd (WSH)

3rd (CHI)

4th (CHI)

5th (CHI)

6th (TB)

6th (CHI)

6th (MIA)

And in 2026, the Bears would have their own full allotment plus a 1st from Atlanta.

Final Roster

New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded (including Harrison). Here's the 53:

QB (3): Justin Fields, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Blake Corum, Khari Blasingame

TE (4): Cole Kmet, Ben Sinnott, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Curtis Samuel, Xavier Legette, Tyler Scott, Equanimeous St. Brown

OT (3): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Larry Borom

OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ja'Tyre Carter

C   (2): Andre James, Jackson Powers-Johnson

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Jadeveon Clowney, Jared Verse, DeMarcus Walker, Zach Harrison

DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Kris Jenkins, FREE AGENT

ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Khyree Jackson

S    (5): Jaquan Brisker, Xavier McKinney, Cole Bishop, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones

ST (3): Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

Holy moly. This is an outrageous collection of talent. I would've liked a projectable 3rd TE and 3rd OT...but when those are my big concerns at the end, I think it speaks exceptionally well of the draft.

The added line talent on both sides is encouraging. But the biggest improvement here comes at the WR spot where Odunze, Samuel, and Legette breathe more life into the room than it's had in a decade. With Moore, Scott, and St. Brown all returning, Fields gets the right combination of continuity and new talent with which to work.