Chicago Bears 2021 Draft Thoughts

Last year, I wrote that Ryan Pace was desperate. This year? It seems abundantly clear that Pace and Matt Nagy should be fired if the Bears don't have an impactful season with 10+ wins.

Once again, I expect that the thought above will dictate what the Bears do this weekend. Unsurprisingly, I am of the opinion that this will lead Pace to make yet another in a continuing series of draft-day mistakes. Despite that, I remain hopeful that this year will be different because, well, that's what I do.

In no particular order, here are my thoughts on the Bears and the draft.

1. The Bears' salary cap management almost surely dictates their draft strategy. Whereas the best teams simply draft the best players, Pace's nightmarish management of the team's salary cap has left glaring lacks of depth in prior years. This year? This year there are numerous spots without starting-caliber players entirely. The most obvious spots:

• Quarterback. Duh. Andy Dalton is the current "starter." In 2021. On purpose. Yikes.
• Right Tackle. While the other four offensive line spots are set, recent seventh rounder Lachavious Simmons appears to be the current projected starter at RT. Again: yikes.
• Wide Receiver. Allen Robinson is a number one. Darnell Mooney is a number three. Number two? Ideally that role would've been filled by recent draftees Anthony Miller (second round) and Riley Ridley (fourth round), but they were both whiffs. Javon Wims and Marquise Goodwin are replacement-level options.
• Cornerback. Yowzers. Jaylon Johnson is locked in as a starter despite his voluminous injury history, and the other spot is a grab bag of minimum-salary veterans: Desmond Trufant, Artie Burns, and Jalen Tabor. To say that Kyle Fuller is desperately missed is a massive understatement.

Starting rookie offensive tackles is never ideal. Starting a rookie quarterback is even less ideal. But that's where the Bears find themselves. Pace needs to find a handful of day-one starters to give the 2021 team a shot.

2. Despite the foregoing, there are a few spots that don't need to be addressed. Cole Kmet showed out as a rookie at tight end and Jimmy Graham is still here. There's high-end talent and depth at defensive end between Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, Mario Edwards, and Angelo Blackson. Outside linebacker has had so many assets allocated to it in recent years that the Bears need to simply roll with Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn, and Trevis Gipson (effectively the 2021 fourth round pick). Eddie Goldman locks down the nose. The interior offensive line trio of James Daniels, Cody Whitehair, and Germain Ifedi looks good. The running back spot is a strength between David Montgomery and the returning Tarik Cohen. Inside linebacker is a little wobbly behind Roquan Smith, but the Bears are wed to Danny Trevathan (thanks Pace!) and Joel Iyiegbuniwe can play in a pinch. Finally, the safety group desperately needs Eddie Jackson to get way better, but there are a trio of potential acceptable starters alongside him with Tashuan Gipson, Deon Bush, and Jordan Lucas in addition to core special teamer DeAndre Houston-Carson. There are enough bodies at these spots to make things work.

3. I've said for years that Pace's penchant for trading away picks in order to get "his guy" was going to come back to bite the team. That arose as an issue last year and it's happening now to a greater extent. In addition to the numerous needs above, the Bears would be well-served to draft a developmental tight end, a successor to Trevathan at ILB, and a DE prospect in the middle rounds of the draft this year. As was the case last year, there aren't nearly enough mid-round picks for the Bears this year given the holes that have been created by years of trading away picks. They have four top-200 selections: #20, #52, #83, and #164. They do have four sixth round picks, but the Bears likely need a couple of them to turn into starters, not projects. Gulp.

4. As I've done in prior years, here's a list of scenarios for Pace from most desirable to least desirable:

1. Trade down. Always. Pace is one-for-two trading back in the second round, ending up with OG Cody Whitehair the first time and TE Adam Shaheen the second time. In both events, trading down yielded valuable picks that turned into important contributors: ILB Nick Kwiatkoski, S Deon Bush, and, following another minor deal, S Eddie Jackson. Pace desperately needs to do that again. Considering that Pace likely needs 2021 picks in return in any deal, I see three attractive possibilities:
1. Bears Trade #20 to Jacksonville for #33 and #65. On the Jimmy Johnson chart, this trade yields 850 points for the Jags and 845 for the Bears, so it's basically a wash. But the Bears pick up an extremely valuable third rounder for the deal. This trade works if the Jags decide that either LT Cam Robinson (on the franchise tag) or 2019 second rounder RT Jawaan Taylor isn't sufficient to protect Trevor Lawrence and the team has other needs to address at #25 as well. Jacksonville is an unlikely fit.
2. Bears Trade #20 to Las Vegas for #48, #79, and #80 as well as a 2022 third-round pick. This sends 850 of 2021 value to the Raiders and brings back 805 for the Bears, who extract only a slight premium for delaying the receipt of the additional pick one year. That may leave Pace less likely to play ball. But if Vegas thinks there's another player in the first round that puts them on the precipice, they could pull the trigger, especially since the cost of moving from #48 to #20 doesn't involve any first- or second-round picks.
3. Bears Trade #20 to Washington for #51, #74, and #82 as well as a 2022 third-round pick. This sends 850 of 2021 value to Washington and brings back 790 for the Bears. Everything from the Vegas deal above also applies here. It's hard to see Washington making this kind of move without a franchise QB on the roster...but if they make another move for a quarterback, this kind of move could land them a LT to protect their new passer.
4. Bears Trade #20 to Baltimore for #27, #94, #131, and #184. This sends 850 of 2021 value to Baltimore and brings back 861 for the Bears. Jumping from #27 to #20 should be enough for Baltimore to get a plug-and-play RT after dealing away Orlando Brown, and they have extra picks in the third, fourth, and fifth rounds from which to deal. This is probably my favorite single outcome for the Bears short of getting multiple, high-value 2022 picks back in a trade (selections that can be made by the next GM).
2. Trade up...but only for Justin Fields. I am not an NFL scout. That has always been true. That said, I have absolutely no idea how Fields is sliding. He is an extremely accurate passer, he has a cannon for an arm, and he is a remarkable athlete. His footwork is strong. The primary criticism of him should be that Ohio State is too good which makes Fields difficult to evaluate in a vacuum, but this problem afflicts just about every Alabama player, too, and they tend to have excellent careers. If Fields slips to the #7/8/9 neighborhood and can be acquired for something like #20, #52, and the 2022 first-round pick, Pace should pounce. It's crazy to me that the Jets aren't taking Fields and are going after Zach Wilson instead. We'll see whether San Francisco actually passes on Fields are #3. More on this below. ***I never recommend that Pace trade up, but Fields sliding to the back of the top-10 - if it happens - presents such an otherworldly error by other clubs that Pace should take advantage. Crazy.***
3. Get a few day-one starters by standing pat. Obviously if somebody undergoes an insane draft slide like one of the Alabama wide receivers (Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith), Oregon LT Penei Sewell, or Penn State OLB Micah Parsons, the Bears should pounce. But since there's a 0.00000000001% chance of players like that reaching the 20s, they're not addressed here. Here are targets for #20:
1. QB Trey Lance (North Dakota State). Hear me out. I don't think there's any real chance that Lance gets this far, but I do think there's a possibility that he slips a decent way as teams see him as a developmental QB. Admittedly, Lance has an extremely high ceiling, but he's going to need a couple of years to get there and I think it's far more likely that he is a bust. But if the Bears can get him without trading up, great!
2. OLB Micah Parsons (Penn State). This is probably a pipe dream. Probably. But Parsons has seen his stock fall a bit in recent weeks and it's not entirely inconceivable that he could drop this far. If he did, I'm done. What a fit opposite Mack. Parsons isn't a classic 3-4 OLB yet, but he's such a good football player and athlete that he'd surely grow into the job.
3. OT Rashawn Slater (Northwestern). Slater shut down Chase Young, largely taking him one-on-one. Holy smokes. Slater will be the long-term replacement for Charles Leno and a day-one starter. If he makes it to #20, it's a no-brainer.
4. CB Patrick Surtain II (Alabama). I'm still made at Pace for wrecking the cap enough to need to cut Fuller. But Surtain is awesome, the complete package at corner with size, speed, instincts, and ball skills. He's exponentially more attractive than Jaycee Horn.
5. WR Terrace Marshall Jr. (LSU). I don't understand why he's so far below Chase, Waddle, and Smith in rankings. Marshall is huge (6'4", 200 lbs.) with great hands, great routes, and a sub-4.4 40 time. There may be a medical issue, but he's worth that risk at 20.
6. LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame). If Owusu-Koramoah is "just" a linebacker, this doesn't work. He's 6'1", 216 lbs., so he has to play inside in a 3-4. The Bears already have Roquan Smith in the three-down role. Where would Owusu-Koramoah play? In a word: everywhere. He's probably more aptly described as a defensive weapon or a rover. He'd fit, he'd play on all three downs, and he'd be a weapon.
7. DE Christian Barmore (Alabama). The value proposition isn't really there for the 2021 Bears, but the value of Barmore in the long run is clear to me. He'll absorb blockers and push back at the point of attack.
8. OT Dillon Radunz (North Dakota State). He can really move and looks powerful enough to play a long time in the NFL. The learning curve may be steep, however.
9. CB Greg Newsome II (Northwestern). Newsome looks like a plug-and-play plus starter. He runs well and is extremely agile. Plus, he really gave Wisconsin quarterbacks nightmares (that translates to Rodgers, and maybe Love, right?).
10. OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech). Darrisaw is plenty impressive in his own right. He's extremely quick and plenty powerful. But to me, he's a clear step down from Slater.
4. Stand pat and draft OK players. Players that are OK for the 2021 Bears but don't knock my socks off.
1. OT Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State). He's plenty big, quick enough, and quite powerful with experience at both tackle spots. He's not my favorite tackle, but he'd work.
2. OLB Jaelan Phillips (Miami). Phillips would be a top-10 pick were it not for his history of concussions. His pass rushing moves are incredible and he's an ideal athlete. But again, the concussions. 
3. OLB Jayson Oweh (Penn State). No sacks last year? No matter. Oweh is darn good at football and the sacks will come thanks to his continuous pressures.
4. OLB Kwity Paye (Michigan). Paye always struck me as "just a guy" at Michigan. But then 2020 happened, he took a big step, and I can see an impact rusher. Good for him.
5. G Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC). He's a good looking guard prospect. If Germain Ifedi is really a RT, this could work, though the value proposition isn't really there. Good player, less-than-ideal fit. He doesn't look quick enough to be a tackle.
6. S Trevon Moehrig (TCU). It's so hard for me (and Ryan Pace) to evaluate safeties. Moehrig would be fine, I guess, but he doesn't seem special to me.
7. OT Jackson Carman (Clemson). Carman has surprisingly sloppy technique, but I can overlook that for a mountain of a man with great quickness. He's going to have a high ceiling and a low floor.
5. Stand pat but draft players I don't like, either because of their skill sets or their fits with the Bears. They'd all be fine later, however.
1. Any running back.
2. QB Mac Jones (Alabama). Allen Robinson. He's the only Bears offensive player at wide receiver or on the offensive line better than the guys that Jones played with last year at Alabama. He's not the guy.
3. OT Alex Leatherwood (Alabama). He'd be a nice get in the second round, but I think he ends up at guard and that makes #20 a tough fit.
4. CB Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech). I'm underwhelmed by Farley and he comes with back issues. He's going to get flagged a lot in the NFL because he's constantly got his hands all over receivers on his way down the field.
5. WR Rashod Bateman (Minnesota). Bateman dusted Penn State's secondary in 2019, but I'm not terribly impressed by him. He plays a lot stiffer than I expected, and he didn't create enough separation unless there were complete coverage breakdowns.
6. CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina). I love Horn's effort, but that's about it. He's extremely handsy, reminding me of former Michigan CB Jourdan Lewis, and I expect that Horn will find the illegal contact penalty in the NFL to be a big problem. Horn is impressively strong, but I don't see top-20 value here.
7. WR Elijah Moore (Ole Miss). Really just looks like a guy. Third- or fourth-round pick type of guy. I'll love it if the Bears draft him, however, because he had that incredible celebration at Mississippi State.
8. OLB Azeez Ojulari (Georgia). An undersized OLB from Georgia? We've already done this one before. Come on. In all seriousness, I appreciate his springiness and like him more than Leonard Floyd. He'd be great in round two.
9. OLB Gregory Rousseau (Miami). Rousseau has the frame, but he's much too stiff.
6. SIDEBAR: Other players I like for later in the draft. This section isn't nearly as robust as in most years because I haven't spent nearly as much time on this year's draft. Basically, there are some second round tackles that I like.
1. OT Jalen Mayfield (Michigan). I don't think that Mayfield will make it to the middle of the second round, but he could and he'd be a great get if he did.
2. OT Sam Cosmi (Texas). Looks like a perfectly cromulent RT for the next 10 years. Not elite, but should have a good career.
3. OT Walker Little (Stanford). Little is a great athlete who hasn't played meaningful football in a long time. He's a risk, but an OK one to take here.
7. Trade up for anyone other than Justin Fields. Don't do it, Ryan. This includes trading up for Trey Lance. Any deal for Lance would feature a first-round pick that would likely be higher than the selection where Lance was taken. For example, if the Bears trade with the Lions and draft Lance at #7, it'll be something like #20 in 2021, #5 in 2022, and a mid-round pick to get it done. Barf.
8. Trade up for Mac Jones. Barf. Barf. Barf. Mac Jones is Andy Dalton. (I also wrote that Patrick Mahomes was Jay Cutler 2.0 a few years ago, so take everything I say with an ocean's worth of salt.)

What do I think will happen? Pace will trade #20, the Bears' 2022 first-round pick, and the Bears' 2023 first-round pick to the Bengals for #5 overall and a 2023 third-round pick. There will be dancing in the streets of Cincinnati. Pace then drafts Mac Jones because everything is terrible. I can't bring myself to mock this, however, because I don't hate myself that much.

Finally, my first-round mock:

1. Jacksonville: QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson). Duh.
2. New York Jets: QB Zach Wilson (BYU). Crazy to me but seems set in stone.
3. San Francisco: QB Justin Fields (Ohio State). The 49ers traded the kind of haul of picks that you only trade for a quarterback, and there's no way they did so for Mac Jones.
4. Cincinnati (trade from #5 with Atlanta): LT Penei Sewell (Oregon). Sewell is a plug-and-play star.
1. I hate trading up one spot, but I can see Atlanta leveraging access to Sewell here and Cincinnati ponying up to protect Burrow.
5. Dallas (trade from #10 with Atlanta): TE Kyle Pitts (Florida). The Dallas defense is a mess...but Jerry Jones won't be able to help himself and the Falcons get a few extra picks for dropping down to #10.
6. Miami: WR Ja'marr Chase (LSU). Speaking of dream scenarios. Miami gets their #1 receiver and a chance to find out if Tua is for real.
7. Denver (trade from #9 with Detroit): QB Trey Lance (North Dakota State). The Lions can get out of the Jared Goff deal following the 2022 season for just $10M in dead money against the cap. They could auction off the pick to the highest bidder...but why not take your next franchise QB yourself? In the end, I think they chose to avoid a locker room mess by drafting Lance or Jones...but they regret passing on Lance within a year or two. Denver rejoices to have a QB with a crazy ceiling.
8. Carolina: OT Rashawn Slater (Northwestern). Carolina is bummed not to sell this pick to the highest bidder, but having invested in Sam Darnold, they elect to keep him upright.
9. Detroit: OLB Micah Parsons (Penn State). This makes no sense based on positional need, but the Lions desperately need an impact player on defense. A wide receiver also makes sense.
10. Atlanta: WR DeVonta Smith (Alabama). Atlanta wins the draft. They trade down twice, picking up tons of extra value, and get a stud receiver anyway. Smith excels against press coverage despite his slender frame.
11. New York Giants: WR Jaylen Waddle (Alabama). Lots of mocks have the Giants seeking linemen, but I think Daniel Jones needs another toy beyond Kenny Golladay's one-year deal.
12. Philadelphia: G Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC). This is Philly's nightmare: they desperately need a receiver, but they're all gone.
13. Los Angeles Chargers: CB Patrick Surtain II (Alabama). The Chargers are in a great spot to land a cornerback or left tackle. Here, it's a corner.
14. Arizona (trade from #16 with Minnesota): CB Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech). The Vikings are without a second-round pick, so they trade down here. Arizona is without a third-round pick, but it's worth it for them to jump New England.
15. New England: CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina). The Pats shrug and say "we were going to take Horn anyway."
16. Minnesota: OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech). A perfect fit for Minnesota as they rebuild a mess of an offensive line.
17. CHICAGO (trade from #20 with Las Vegas): QB Mac Jones (Alabama). The Bears fear that Washington will jump here and keep them from Jones, so they make another deal involving the Raiders, this time sending #20 and #83 to Las Vegas to get their statue of a new quarterback. Barf.
18. Miami: DE Jayson Oweh (Penn State). Oweh is going to come off the board earlier than expected, and I can see this being his landing spot. There are very few people on the planet that have his athleticism, and he's already a darn good football player despite limited experience.
19. Washington: OT Teven Jenkins (Oklahoma State). Washington will need to run the ball and Jenkins is a mauler.
20. Las Vegas: OT Alex Leatherwood (Alabama). Mayock and Gruden love Alabama players, and they need a tackle.
21. Indianapolis: DE Kwity Paye (Michigan). Indianapolis almost certainly wants a left tackle here, but those options are gone and the Colts lack the extra picks needed to make a move. Accordingly, they sit tight and take the shot on an edge instead.
22. Tennessee: CB Greg Newsome II (Northwestern). After releasing both starting cornerbacks, the Titans need an NFL-caliber player at this position. Newsome should start Week 1.
23. New York Jets: S Trevon Moehrig (TCU). The Jets use the pick acquired in the Jamal Adams deal to draft a safety. How fitting.
24. Pittsburgh: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame). Pittsburgh finds an athletic marvel to pair with Devin Bush in the middle of its defense.
25. Jacksonville: DT Christian Barmore (Alabama). Even though Barmore doesn't help Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville is ecstatic to find such an impactful lineman this late in the first.
26. Cleveland: DE Gregory Rousseau (Miami). Despite signing Jadeveon Clowney to pair with Myles Garrett, the Browns nab Rousseau and terrorize opposing offensive lines with all three linemen on the field on passing downs.
27. Baltimore: OT Dillon Radunz (North Dakota State). Radunz is an incredible athlete. He's going to be able to run with the runnin' Ravens.
28. Tampa Bay (trade from #32 with New Orleans): WR Terrace Marshall Jr. (LSU). The Bucs trade up and break Green Bay hearts by grabbing this big receiver. Tampa Bay is heading for an inflection point with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin making big bucks. One will likely head out soon.
29. Green Bay: WR Rashod Bateman (Minnesota). Finally.
30. Buffalo: DE Azeez Ojulari (Georgia). Buffalo strengthens their defensive front.
31. Baltimore: OLB Jaelan Phillips (Miami). Despite Phillips' concussion history, Baltimore needs to roll the dice on him to keep their pass rush feisty after losing so much in free agency.
32. New Orleans: WR Rondale Moore (Purdue). The Saints need help for Michael Thomas, and with Emmanuel Sanders out the door, it needs to come via the draft.

Enjoy!