*Back on August 14th, I posted my picks for the 2015 NFL season here. Unfortunately, I failed to perform my normal check to make sure that the records lined up. As a result, I gave the league a composite record of 241-271. Ouch. So below, please find a revised post that accounts for the fact that the league, as a whole, has to play .500 ball. I can't change the basic predictions - for example, no accounting for Philip Rivers having already received his extension or Kelvin Benjamin being out for the year for the Panthers - but the records and the draft order are updated as appropriate. The playoff tree is unchanged.
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (11-5): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (8-8): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (6-10): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to not reach January.
St. Louis (9-7): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (4-12): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (3-13): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (10-6): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (8-8): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (3-13): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers got his contract, but I can't change the basic idea: tons of yards.
Kansas City (8-8): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (5-11): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (10-6): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (8-8): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (6-10): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago
6. Oakland
7. Tampa Bay
8. New York Jets
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Dallas
13. Atlanta
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. Detroit
18. St. Louis
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next five clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Cleveland, Chicago, and Oakland - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Friday, August 21, 2015
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Picking Penn State's 2015 Season
Anyone who has spoken with me in the past couple of months knows a few things about my thoughts on Nittany's upcoming season:
1. I'm not a huge James Franklin fan, though I'm certainly interested to see how he handles the program and the early returns are encouraging enough;
2. I think that the schedule lines up very favorably for the club to get on a roll in advance of late-season slugfests; and
3. I'm in love with Christian Hackenberg.
It's crazy. I'm 100% on board the Hacktrain, and I don't plan to get off for 20 years, following Hack from State College, PA to his inevitable home in Chicago, IL. It's going to be a fun run.
Of course, just talking about Hack misses the fact that there's an entire team of guys out there and the entire team has to win or lose games as a unit. So here are some very quick thoughts about the units on the team followed by a slightly more detailed look at my expectations for the schedule. I've organized these positions from weakest to strongest, meaning that we inevitably start with...
Specialists
Gulp. This group is ugly. After Sam Ficken's disastrous debut as a Freshman (that Virginia game was actually a nightmare and not something that really happened, right?), he turned into one of the Big Ten's best kickers. The fact that Ficken's final career play - an overtime extra point - won his final career game was a poetic bookend to his ascent.
Unfortunately, Sam left a vacancy that hasn't yet been filled. Whichever walk-on kicker wins the kicking job (probably going to be Joey Julius), it's going to be a big downgrade. Add in underwhelming Aussie punter Daniel Pasquariello, and you've got a unit in desperate need of improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the 2015 special teams units aren't pretty and they seem exceedingly likely to cost the club a game or two along the way. Franklin has already secured a verbal commitment from the top kicker in the Class of 2016 (Rockford, Michigan's Quinn Nordin) as well as a top-five punter (Atlanta-area leg Blake Gillikin). While that bodes well for the future, Nordin and Gillikin won't help the lackluster 2015 units.
Offensive Line
Before you hate me, I firmly believe that there's plenty of hope for this unit. Yes, it was abysmal last year, and yes, the top player is now protecting Jameis Winston's blind side in Tampa instead of Hack's in PA. Still, the quartet from LG to RT (Brendan Mahon, Angelo Mangiro, Brian Gaia, and Andrew Nelson) all comes with starting experience instead of exclusively question marks and concerns as was the case last year. The 44 sacks cannot be repeated - Hack won't survive the year - but this group should be better. If they can somehow comprise even an average Big Ten line, it'll go a long way toward making for a positive season.
Ah, but then there's the left tackle. Maybe Paris Palmer proves to be the JUCO angel Nittany needs him to be. Maybe Chance Sorrell proves that uncommon redshirt freshman capable of stepping in at the line's most important spot. Color me unexcited about either option.
Running Backs
Look, I've got nothing against this group. Akeel Lynch looks like a strong starter and Mark Allen looks ready to go in a part-time role. Yet, there's underwhelming depth here and Lynch looks like a plus starter instead of a star. That's fine, but not great.
Linebackers
Brandon Bell has placed a target on his back by taking on the responsibility of wearing #11, but his tape suggests that he's ready for that role. On the outside, Jason Cabinda and Nyeem Wartman-White are both plenty competent as starters. However, this unit either needs a true breakout from Cabinda or a big push from lower on the depth chart (we're looking at you, Koa Farmer) to move it's way up this list.
Defensive Line
Anthony Zettel is the second best player on this team and the most valuable member of the defense. Austin Johnson is a blossoming collegiate star next to him. This group should be ideal. Unfortunately, the group of Garrett Sickels, Carl Nassib, Curtis Cothran, and Evan Schwan needs to find a way to produce 120 plus snaps and while I have hope for Sickels, I don't see it for the group. Add in uninspiring depth on the interior, and this group only looks really good, not elite.
Wide Receivers
This group could top the list when all is said and done. The top five receivers feature just one upperclassman, redshirt junior Geno Lewis, an explosive yet inconsistent target. Three sophomores and a redshirt freshman join him among the top options. Saeed Blacknall proved capable of using his 6-3, 211-pound frame effectively last year, especially in making a game-changing touchdown catch when PSU gave Ohio State their toughest game of the year. DeAndre Thompkins put his redshirt year to use, and is poised to win a starting gig.
And then there's the big two options: true sophomore Chris Godwin and redshirt sophomore DaeSean Hamilton. Godwin showed flashes last year, and is certainly capable of playing his way into Hack's favor. Hamilton, on the other hand, is a preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection for a reason. The guy has the hands, quickness, and body to pitch-and-catch all day. This is a really strong group that can carry the team.
Secondary
The strength of the defense, this unit also lacks depth behind the starters like the defensive line, but the starters in the secondary are a glorious quartet. Senior Trevor Williams comes with a multitude of experience at cornerback while true sophomore Grant Haley brings oodles of athleticism (if not size) across from him.
The muscle comes at safety. Senior Jordan Lucas has earned and held a starting job for years, and he should competently quarterback the defense. But sophomore Marcus Allen is the star. I don't know if anybody is talking about the NFL prospects of true sophomore defensive backs, but Allen is headed for the NFL. He has the body, playing style, and football acumen to be a serious player at the next level. He's poised for a monster year.
Tight Ends
The depth here is just silly, largely thanks to Bill O'Brien's recruiting efforts and offense. Redshirt sophomore Adam Breneman flashed brilliance as a true freshman before losing last year to a knee injury. Breneman's injury red flags are flying freely, but there's still plenty of skill in there to be a pass-catching force. Senior Kyle Carter has been the go-to guy at the tight end spot for multiple stretches over the past couple of years, showing strong hands and body control. Carter is even showing up on All-Big Ten lists...yet true sophomore Mike Gesicki is listed atop the depth chart and with good reason: 6-6, 250-pound sure-handed speed targets are always attractive. Hack is going to love this group.
Speaking of...
Quarterbacks
The depth is poor with a true freshman (Tommy Stevens) and two redshirt freshmen (Trace McSorley and Billy Fessler) behind Hack. At 6-0, 196 pounds, McSorley brings a running element that Hack lacks, but he would represent a massive drop off.
The 6-4, 228-pound Hackenberg will carry the team on his shoulders in 2015 or he'll crumble behind a porous offensive line. I'm obviously visualizing the former. The arm is perfect, the footwork is strong, the acumen is solid, and with two dozen starts under his belt, Hack is ready for the leap with something like $20M at stake. He has a chance to be the best quarterback in the country this year, and Nittany's fortunes will follow his right arm and his brain.
Schedule
With that look at the players complete, here are my week-by-week picks, something that will prove completely ridiculous as players get hurt and strengths and weaknesses are revealed.
Week 1: @ Temple (Philadelphia)
Temple has given Penn State a tough time in their meetings over the past few years, and they have forced their way up near the top of the MAC standings.
However, Penn State continues come out ahead and the 2015 Nittany defense should have its way with the Owls.
Pick: Penn State 31, Temple 10
Week 2: v. Buffalo
I hate these games. They're not fun, even if you win 50-0. Let's get to Week 3.
Pick: Penn State 38, Buffalo 7
Week 3: v. Rutgers
The season gets at least a little bit more interesting in Week 3 as Rutgers comes to State College for a primetime date. Penn State's primetime visit to Piscataway in 2014 was one of the year's most frustrating games, albeit one with a marvelous payoff late in the fourth quarter. Don't expect similar results this year. Rutgers still hasn't named its quarterback, and Kyle Flood's squad appears destined for the basement of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Penn State 40, Rutgers 10
Week 4: v. San Diego State
San Diego State is certainly a more formidable opponent than Buffalo or some of the other lower-MAC fodder that has appeared on the schedule in recent years, but the Aztecs are nonetheless a tier or two below Big Ten competition. Preseason rankings have them in a similar spot to that of Temple and Rutgers. Sounds about right to me. I expect similar results.
Pick: Penn State 28, San Diego State 7
Week 5: v. Army
From everything I've been told, it's a cool experience to play an academy. Hopefully the Penn State players enjoy themselves before pummeling the opposition.
Pick: Penn State 45, Army 14
Week 6: v. Indiana
Indiana is a wonderful opponent against whom to open Big Ten play in earnest. The Hoosiers should lack both the depth and the star power to put up a true fight, yet they have given Nittany an inexplicably hard time for four straight years, including an embarrassing beatdown of Penn State in 2013.
I think Penn State will finally get some revenge this year, though not in dominating fashion.
Pick: Penn State 27, Indiana 10
Week 7: @ Ohio State
And then BOOM! At the Horseshoe in primetime, almost certainly a nationally televised showdown between undefeated and highly ranked squads. Ohio State's only marginally challenging game to that point is their Labor Day opener at Virginia Tech, and after the Hokies gave the Buckeyes their only blemish in last year's championship season, I expect Ohio State to be out for blood. They'll be 6-0 and rolling along.
That's unfortunate for Penn State. Nittany's best change is to catch Ohio State in the midst of a slate of challenging games, not as their first true focal point of the season. Joey Bosa will present a problem the likes of which hasn't been seen for the offensive line, and that Ohio State offense is a steamroller. As so often happens, this visit to Columbus will induce nightmares.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Penn State 10
Week 8: @ Maryland
After last year's stirring showing against the Buckeyes during the White Out game, Penn State followed up with the clunker of the year, a truly disheartening and depressing 20-19 loss to the Terrapins in their first-ever matchup as Big Ten foes. That loss dropped the 2014 club to 4-4 as their fourth straight loss, putting many of us in a funk.
Expect revenge in a big way this year. Maryland figures to field one of their weaker teams in recent memory and James Franklin appears uniquely poised to play off of the emotional damage inflicted by the Terps last year. I expect a rousing win following the letdown of Ohio State.
Pick: Penn State 30, Maryland 14
Week 9: v. Illinois
Trap game, anyone? Penn State somehow, rather inexplicably, lost in Champaign last season to a dreadful Illini squad in a game where Hackenberg completed just eight passes and threw for only 93 yards. Tim Beckman is on the hot seat and could very well be out of a job by Week 9, but I don't see it going down that way. Illinois should get off to a hot start against their non-conference foes, but thankfully for Penn State, Nittany catches Illinois at the end of their rough stretch, following games against Nebraska, Iowa (away), and Wisconsin. While both teams figure to be a bit beat up, I think Nittany can overpower Illinois this time.
Pick: Penn State 21, Illinois 15
Week 10: @ Northwestern
Ah, the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald's team almost always wins games you wouldn't expect them to win, yet oftentimes loses game they should win. Case in point: the 2014 Wildcats. The 2014 season featured loses to Cal, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, all at home. Ouch.
Yet that same club also beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame (on the road). What in the world?
It feels strange to pick a Northwestern game. I have no idea what's going to happen, but I do have very fond memories of sitting in Ryan Field on a chilly early evening in 2009 watching Daryll Clark's fourth quarter explosion turn a tight matchup into an easy win. Time for Hack to do that, too.
Pick: Penn State 31, Northwestern 20
Week 11: BYE
Finally!
Week 12: v. Michigan
Argh. I get a little angry thinking about this game.
Look, Michigan is going to be way better this year than they were last year simply due to Jim Harbaugh's presence. He's that good.
But how good will they be? And will Penn State be able to make it matter?
I just don't know. There's plenty of talent on both rosters and coaches new to town tasked with getting production out of them. I think that Harbaugh will be better at that...but Penn State has the better talent for their system right now.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan 30
Week 13: @ Michigan State
All yours, Mark Dantonio. Have fun fighting it out with Ohio State again!
Pick: Michigan State 28, Penn State 14
I fully expect Penn State to get obliterated by Ohio State this year, but both before and after the showdown in Columbus, the schedule shapes up nicely for a run at double-digit wins. I think they'll get there at 10-2. That'd be really fun.
I think Ohio State will go 12-0 because they have Urban Meyer and they're way more talented than everyone else that they'll play. I think Michigan State will go 9-3, dropping contests to Oregon, Ohio State, and one of Nebraska or Michigan (both road games). I think that Michigan will go 8-4, losing to Ohio State, Penn State, and two of Michigan State, Minnesota, BYU, and Utah.
Ohio State will face Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game, a game that the Buckeyes will win by 50 causing media members to wonder if Ohio State should move to the SEC.
It's going to be a fun year everyone!
1. I'm not a huge James Franklin fan, though I'm certainly interested to see how he handles the program and the early returns are encouraging enough;
2. I think that the schedule lines up very favorably for the club to get on a roll in advance of late-season slugfests; and
3. I'm in love with Christian Hackenberg.
It's crazy. I'm 100% on board the Hacktrain, and I don't plan to get off for 20 years, following Hack from State College, PA to his inevitable home in Chicago, IL. It's going to be a fun run.
Of course, just talking about Hack misses the fact that there's an entire team of guys out there and the entire team has to win or lose games as a unit. So here are some very quick thoughts about the units on the team followed by a slightly more detailed look at my expectations for the schedule. I've organized these positions from weakest to strongest, meaning that we inevitably start with...
Specialists
Gulp. This group is ugly. After Sam Ficken's disastrous debut as a Freshman (that Virginia game was actually a nightmare and not something that really happened, right?), he turned into one of the Big Ten's best kickers. The fact that Ficken's final career play - an overtime extra point - won his final career game was a poetic bookend to his ascent.
Unfortunately, Sam left a vacancy that hasn't yet been filled. Whichever walk-on kicker wins the kicking job (probably going to be Joey Julius), it's going to be a big downgrade. Add in underwhelming Aussie punter Daniel Pasquariello, and you've got a unit in desperate need of improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the 2015 special teams units aren't pretty and they seem exceedingly likely to cost the club a game or two along the way. Franklin has already secured a verbal commitment from the top kicker in the Class of 2016 (Rockford, Michigan's Quinn Nordin) as well as a top-five punter (Atlanta-area leg Blake Gillikin). While that bodes well for the future, Nordin and Gillikin won't help the lackluster 2015 units.
Offensive Line
Before you hate me, I firmly believe that there's plenty of hope for this unit. Yes, it was abysmal last year, and yes, the top player is now protecting Jameis Winston's blind side in Tampa instead of Hack's in PA. Still, the quartet from LG to RT (Brendan Mahon, Angelo Mangiro, Brian Gaia, and Andrew Nelson) all comes with starting experience instead of exclusively question marks and concerns as was the case last year. The 44 sacks cannot be repeated - Hack won't survive the year - but this group should be better. If they can somehow comprise even an average Big Ten line, it'll go a long way toward making for a positive season.
Ah, but then there's the left tackle. Maybe Paris Palmer proves to be the JUCO angel Nittany needs him to be. Maybe Chance Sorrell proves that uncommon redshirt freshman capable of stepping in at the line's most important spot. Color me unexcited about either option.
Running Backs
Look, I've got nothing against this group. Akeel Lynch looks like a strong starter and Mark Allen looks ready to go in a part-time role. Yet, there's underwhelming depth here and Lynch looks like a plus starter instead of a star. That's fine, but not great.
Linebackers
Brandon Bell has placed a target on his back by taking on the responsibility of wearing #11, but his tape suggests that he's ready for that role. On the outside, Jason Cabinda and Nyeem Wartman-White are both plenty competent as starters. However, this unit either needs a true breakout from Cabinda or a big push from lower on the depth chart (we're looking at you, Koa Farmer) to move it's way up this list.
Defensive Line
Anthony Zettel is the second best player on this team and the most valuable member of the defense. Austin Johnson is a blossoming collegiate star next to him. This group should be ideal. Unfortunately, the group of Garrett Sickels, Carl Nassib, Curtis Cothran, and Evan Schwan needs to find a way to produce 120 plus snaps and while I have hope for Sickels, I don't see it for the group. Add in uninspiring depth on the interior, and this group only looks really good, not elite.
Wide Receivers
This group could top the list when all is said and done. The top five receivers feature just one upperclassman, redshirt junior Geno Lewis, an explosive yet inconsistent target. Three sophomores and a redshirt freshman join him among the top options. Saeed Blacknall proved capable of using his 6-3, 211-pound frame effectively last year, especially in making a game-changing touchdown catch when PSU gave Ohio State their toughest game of the year. DeAndre Thompkins put his redshirt year to use, and is poised to win a starting gig.
And then there's the big two options: true sophomore Chris Godwin and redshirt sophomore DaeSean Hamilton. Godwin showed flashes last year, and is certainly capable of playing his way into Hack's favor. Hamilton, on the other hand, is a preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection for a reason. The guy has the hands, quickness, and body to pitch-and-catch all day. This is a really strong group that can carry the team.
Secondary
The strength of the defense, this unit also lacks depth behind the starters like the defensive line, but the starters in the secondary are a glorious quartet. Senior Trevor Williams comes with a multitude of experience at cornerback while true sophomore Grant Haley brings oodles of athleticism (if not size) across from him.
The muscle comes at safety. Senior Jordan Lucas has earned and held a starting job for years, and he should competently quarterback the defense. But sophomore Marcus Allen is the star. I don't know if anybody is talking about the NFL prospects of true sophomore defensive backs, but Allen is headed for the NFL. He has the body, playing style, and football acumen to be a serious player at the next level. He's poised for a monster year.
Tight Ends
The depth here is just silly, largely thanks to Bill O'Brien's recruiting efforts and offense. Redshirt sophomore Adam Breneman flashed brilliance as a true freshman before losing last year to a knee injury. Breneman's injury red flags are flying freely, but there's still plenty of skill in there to be a pass-catching force. Senior Kyle Carter has been the go-to guy at the tight end spot for multiple stretches over the past couple of years, showing strong hands and body control. Carter is even showing up on All-Big Ten lists...yet true sophomore Mike Gesicki is listed atop the depth chart and with good reason: 6-6, 250-pound sure-handed speed targets are always attractive. Hack is going to love this group.
Speaking of...
Quarterbacks
The depth is poor with a true freshman (Tommy Stevens) and two redshirt freshmen (Trace McSorley and Billy Fessler) behind Hack. At 6-0, 196 pounds, McSorley brings a running element that Hack lacks, but he would represent a massive drop off.
The 6-4, 228-pound Hackenberg will carry the team on his shoulders in 2015 or he'll crumble behind a porous offensive line. I'm obviously visualizing the former. The arm is perfect, the footwork is strong, the acumen is solid, and with two dozen starts under his belt, Hack is ready for the leap with something like $20M at stake. He has a chance to be the best quarterback in the country this year, and Nittany's fortunes will follow his right arm and his brain.
Schedule
With that look at the players complete, here are my week-by-week picks, something that will prove completely ridiculous as players get hurt and strengths and weaknesses are revealed.
Week 1: @ Temple (Philadelphia)
Temple has given Penn State a tough time in their meetings over the past few years, and they have forced their way up near the top of the MAC standings.
However, Penn State continues come out ahead and the 2015 Nittany defense should have its way with the Owls.
Pick: Penn State 31, Temple 10
Week 2: v. Buffalo
I hate these games. They're not fun, even if you win 50-0. Let's get to Week 3.
Pick: Penn State 38, Buffalo 7
Week 3: v. Rutgers
The season gets at least a little bit more interesting in Week 3 as Rutgers comes to State College for a primetime date. Penn State's primetime visit to Piscataway in 2014 was one of the year's most frustrating games, albeit one with a marvelous payoff late in the fourth quarter. Don't expect similar results this year. Rutgers still hasn't named its quarterback, and Kyle Flood's squad appears destined for the basement of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Penn State 40, Rutgers 10
Week 4: v. San Diego State
San Diego State is certainly a more formidable opponent than Buffalo or some of the other lower-MAC fodder that has appeared on the schedule in recent years, but the Aztecs are nonetheless a tier or two below Big Ten competition. Preseason rankings have them in a similar spot to that of Temple and Rutgers. Sounds about right to me. I expect similar results.
Pick: Penn State 28, San Diego State 7
Week 5: v. Army
From everything I've been told, it's a cool experience to play an academy. Hopefully the Penn State players enjoy themselves before pummeling the opposition.
Pick: Penn State 45, Army 14
Week 6: v. Indiana
Indiana is a wonderful opponent against whom to open Big Ten play in earnest. The Hoosiers should lack both the depth and the star power to put up a true fight, yet they have given Nittany an inexplicably hard time for four straight years, including an embarrassing beatdown of Penn State in 2013.
I think Penn State will finally get some revenge this year, though not in dominating fashion.
Pick: Penn State 27, Indiana 10
Week 7: @ Ohio State
And then BOOM! At the Horseshoe in primetime, almost certainly a nationally televised showdown between undefeated and highly ranked squads. Ohio State's only marginally challenging game to that point is their Labor Day opener at Virginia Tech, and after the Hokies gave the Buckeyes their only blemish in last year's championship season, I expect Ohio State to be out for blood. They'll be 6-0 and rolling along.
That's unfortunate for Penn State. Nittany's best change is to catch Ohio State in the midst of a slate of challenging games, not as their first true focal point of the season. Joey Bosa will present a problem the likes of which hasn't been seen for the offensive line, and that Ohio State offense is a steamroller. As so often happens, this visit to Columbus will induce nightmares.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Penn State 10
Week 8: @ Maryland
After last year's stirring showing against the Buckeyes during the White Out game, Penn State followed up with the clunker of the year, a truly disheartening and depressing 20-19 loss to the Terrapins in their first-ever matchup as Big Ten foes. That loss dropped the 2014 club to 4-4 as their fourth straight loss, putting many of us in a funk.
Expect revenge in a big way this year. Maryland figures to field one of their weaker teams in recent memory and James Franklin appears uniquely poised to play off of the emotional damage inflicted by the Terps last year. I expect a rousing win following the letdown of Ohio State.
Pick: Penn State 30, Maryland 14
Week 9: v. Illinois
Trap game, anyone? Penn State somehow, rather inexplicably, lost in Champaign last season to a dreadful Illini squad in a game where Hackenberg completed just eight passes and threw for only 93 yards. Tim Beckman is on the hot seat and could very well be out of a job by Week 9, but I don't see it going down that way. Illinois should get off to a hot start against their non-conference foes, but thankfully for Penn State, Nittany catches Illinois at the end of their rough stretch, following games against Nebraska, Iowa (away), and Wisconsin. While both teams figure to be a bit beat up, I think Nittany can overpower Illinois this time.
Pick: Penn State 21, Illinois 15
Week 10: @ Northwestern
Ah, the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald's team almost always wins games you wouldn't expect them to win, yet oftentimes loses game they should win. Case in point: the 2014 Wildcats. The 2014 season featured loses to Cal, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, all at home. Ouch.
Yet that same club also beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame (on the road). What in the world?
It feels strange to pick a Northwestern game. I have no idea what's going to happen, but I do have very fond memories of sitting in Ryan Field on a chilly early evening in 2009 watching Daryll Clark's fourth quarter explosion turn a tight matchup into an easy win. Time for Hack to do that, too.
Pick: Penn State 31, Northwestern 20
Week 11: BYE
Finally!
Week 12: v. Michigan
Argh. I get a little angry thinking about this game.
Look, Michigan is going to be way better this year than they were last year simply due to Jim Harbaugh's presence. He's that good.
But how good will they be? And will Penn State be able to make it matter?
I just don't know. There's plenty of talent on both rosters and coaches new to town tasked with getting production out of them. I think that Harbaugh will be better at that...but Penn State has the better talent for their system right now.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan 30
Week 13: @ Michigan State
All yours, Mark Dantonio. Have fun fighting it out with Ohio State again!
Pick: Michigan State 28, Penn State 14
I fully expect Penn State to get obliterated by Ohio State this year, but both before and after the showdown in Columbus, the schedule shapes up nicely for a run at double-digit wins. I think they'll get there at 10-2. That'd be really fun.
I think Ohio State will go 12-0 because they have Urban Meyer and they're way more talented than everyone else that they'll play. I think Michigan State will go 9-3, dropping contests to Oregon, Ohio State, and one of Nebraska or Michigan (both road games). I think that Michigan will go 8-4, losing to Ohio State, Penn State, and two of Michigan State, Minnesota, BYU, and Utah.
Ohio State will face Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game, a game that the Buckeyes will win by 50 causing media members to wonder if Ohio State should move to the SEC.
It's going to be a fun year everyone!
Friday, August 14, 2015
2015 Chicago Bears Roster Breakdown and Projection
With the shift from the franchise's traditional 4-3 defense to new Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio's 3-4 base, the Bears have signaled the beginning of a new era under fresh GM Ryan Pace. At this point, the roster has already turned over in a big way. Looking toward the 2015 season, here's who I expect to make it on a position-by-position basis. The parentheses that follow the position group name indicate how many players I expect the Bears to keep at such position.
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry
On the Bubble: Josh Bellamy, Cameron Meredith, Marc Mariani, Rashad Lawrence
On the Bubble: Bear Pascoe, Blake Annen
On the Bubble: Michael Ola
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: Will Sutton, Brandon Dunn, Cornelius Washington
On the Bubble: Sam Acho, Willie Young, David Bass
Inside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, Mason Foster
On the Bubble: Matthew Wells, DeDe Lattimore
On the Bubble: Sherrick McManis, Tracy Porter, Terrance Mitchell, Al Louis-Jean
On the Bubble: Demontre Hurst
On the Bubble: None
QB: Cutler, Clausen
RB: Forte, Rodgers, Langford, Carey
TE: Bennett, Rosario, Miller, Pascoe
OT: Bushrod, Mills, Leno
OG: Slauson, Long, Ducasse
C: Montgomery, Grasu
WR: Jeffery, Royal, White, Wilson, Bellamy
DE: Ferguson, Jenkins, Sutton, Dunn, Washington
NT: Ratliff, Goldman
OLB: McPhee, Allen, Houston, Acho, Young
ILB: Jones, McClellin, Foster, Bostic, Wells
CB: Fuller, Jennings, Ball, Porter, McManis
S: Vereen, Rolle, Mundy, Amos, Hurst
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, Gafford
That roster contains 23 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 specialists. Should a compelling wide receiver hit the market in the coming weeks, I suspect that the Bears would gobble him up, punting on one of Dunn, Washington, Young, Wells, or Hurst. Until then, the above roster figures to be the 53-man makeup.
Quarterbacks (2)
Locks: Jay Cutler, Jimmy ClausenOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: The Bears are going to carry Cutler and Clausen. No intrigue here.
Running Backs (4)
Locks: Matt Forte, Jacquizz Rodgers, Jeremy LangfordOn the Bubble: Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry
Analysis: Forte, Rodgers, and Langford will suit up on Opening Day. The fourth spot is a whole lot trickier. Despite being drafted in the fourth round in 2014, Carey finds himself squarely on the bubble already. His uninspiring rookie season has been followed by Langford passing Carey on the depth chart in camp. It's possible that Carey's impressive showing in the preseason opener will sway the coaches; on the other hand, Perry comes with experience and is a plus on special teams. In the end, I suspect that the club will attempt to trade Carey before resigning itself to keep the sophomore in lieu of paying both his cap dead money charge (approximately $333K) and Perry's salary. Regardless, this is probably the battle to watch in camp.
Wide Receivers (5)
Locks: Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, Kevin White, Marquess WilsonOn the Bubble: Josh Bellamy, Cameron Meredith, Marc Mariani, Rashad Lawrence
Analysis: This is obviously another big camp battle, though the reality remains that the winner of the competition for the fifth receiver job will likely be the guy who contributes most on special teams, giving Mariani a leg up in the competition. I'd be surprised to see a sixth receiver make the club, especially with the number of depth options on defense.
Tight Ends (3)
Locks: Martellus Bennett, Dante Rosario, Zach MillerOn the Bubble: Bear Pascoe, Blake Annen
Analysis: The Bears traditionally carry four tight ends, and with no traditional fullback on the roster, they could carry a fourth tight end this year despite the lack of a compelling option. Furthermore, Miller needs to come with an asterisk as he has lost multiple seasons to injury in his career.
Offensive Tackles (3)
Locks: Jermon Bushrod, Jordan Mills, Charles Leno, Jr.On the Bubble: Michael Ola
Analysis: Mills and Leno may very well be headed for a battle for the right tackle job with Bushrod locked in on the blind side. Ola is something of a long shot to make the club. Sixth-round pick Tayo Fabuluje seems destined for the Practice Squad.
Guards (3)
Locks: Matt Slauson, Kyle Long, Vladimir DucasseOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Much like last season, Slauson and Long will man the starting positions. There are a few names in consideration for the reserve job, but Ducasse comes with experience and starts under his belt without a truly compelling prospect to push him. He'll get the job.
Centers (2)
Locks: Will Montgomery, Hroniss GrasuOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Speaking of lacking intrigue. Montgomery is slated to start on a one-year deal whereas Grasu was just drafted with a third-round pick. They'll both make it.
Nose Tackles (2)
Locks: Jeremiah Ratliff, Eddie GoldmanOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Just like it was at center, there's nothing interesting here. Ratliff will start, and Goldman was drafted in the second round to be the long-term answer in the interior. Terry Williams isn't in serious consideration for a spot.
Defensive Ends (5)
Locks: Ego Ferguson, Jarvis JenkinsOn the Bubble: Will Sutton, Brandon Dunn, Cornelius Washington
Analysis: This is another compelling position group. Washington proved too small as a 260-pound 4-3 defensive end, yet he put on 25 pounds in an effort to stick as an end in the 3-4. If he maintained his trademark quickness in spite of the added weight, he should make it. Sutton comes from the opposite position, a 4-3 defensive tackle kicking outside in the new alignment. Ditto Dunn. In the end, with only two nose tackles, I think the Bears will end up keeping all five defensive ends. If one guy doesn't make it, I suspect that Dunn will be left holding the short straw.
Outside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Pernell McPhee, Jared Allen, Lamarr HoustonOn the Bubble: Sam Acho, Willie Young, David Bass
Analysis: The Bears desperately needed to add an impact piece at the new 3-4 outside linebacker spot, and McPhee fit the bill perfectly. Though there's always risk taking a situational player and giving him a full-time job, McPhee's contract was largely risk-free (if cut, his cap hit for 2016 would be just $2M) and his upside is immense. Allen sticks around as a guy with a hefty guaranteed salary. This will be his final year with the Bears.
Houston flopped in his debut season with the Bears and embarrassingly tore his ACL celebrating his only sack, a garbage-time takedown against New England. Acho comes with some pass rushing success, Young is coming off of a ten-sack season, and Bass has shown some aptitude for pass rushing over the last two years. In the end, Acho, Young, and Bass may very well be competing for two spots. Young's marvelous 2014 campaign - his torn Achilles notwithstanding - should give him the upper hand while Acho's experience in the 3-4 helps his cause. Bass' speed could keep him on the roster, however, so this is the toughest spot for me to pick. In the end, I'll say that Acho and Young stick around while noting that an offer of a sixth-round pick from an opposing general manager would probably get Young, especially if such a deal moved him back into a 4-3 scheme.
Houston flopped in his debut season with the Bears and embarrassingly tore his ACL celebrating his only sack, a garbage-time takedown against New England. Acho comes with some pass rushing success, Young is coming off of a ten-sack season, and Bass has shown some aptitude for pass rushing over the last two years. In the end, Acho, Young, and Bass may very well be competing for two spots. Young's marvelous 2014 campaign - his torn Achilles notwithstanding - should give him the upper hand while Acho's experience in the 3-4 helps his cause. Bass' speed could keep him on the roster, however, so this is the toughest spot for me to pick. In the end, I'll say that Acho and Young stick around while noting that an offer of a sixth-round pick from an opposing general manager would probably get Young, especially if such a deal moved him back into a 4-3 scheme.
Inside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, Mason Foster
On the Bubble: Matthew Wells, DeDe Lattimore
Analysis: The top four inside 'backers are all effectively assured of their jobs. Jones is penciled in as the starter next to McClellin whereas Bostic comes with huge upside and Foster comes with years of solid, if uninspiring, tape. Wells came over from New England in a rare preseason trade for guard Ryan Groy; it would be strange if the Bears acquired the 2015 sixth-round pick and then cut him a few weeks later, though perhaps he'll head to the Practice Squad. Lattimore proved competent in limited use in 2014, but he's not moving the needle much.
Cornerbacks (5)
Locks: Kyle Fuller, Tim Jennings, Alan BallOn the Bubble: Sherrick McManis, Tracy Porter, Terrance Mitchell, Al Louis-Jean
Analysis: The top four will all stick around, and I had McManis on that top line for a bit before dropping him down. He should still make it. Ditto Porter. Mitchell and Louis-Jean are longshots. Despite seven names for five spots, there's little intrigue here.
Safeties (4)
Locks: Ryan Mundy, Antrel Rolle, Brock Vereen, Adrian AmosOn the Bubble: Demontre Hurst
Analysis: I have been consistently impressed by Hurst's production in games, both live and on television. Unfortunately for him, this roster is not well-shaped to provide him with a window to playing time. I suspect that Ryan Pace will keep him on speed dial in the event of an injury in the secondary.
Specialists (2)
Locks: Robbie Gould, Pat O'Donnell, Thomas GaffordOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Three guys with jobs as secure as possible.
Cap Situation
It's mostly worthless to look at the club's roster without at least some idea of the team's salary cap situation. The Bears currently stand about $8.5M under the cap for 2015, placing them very near the median figure among NFL clubs. A couple of major numbers will come off of the books in 2016 (Jared Allen, Brandon Marshall) though nearly all of those savings figure to be reinvested into a new, long-term deal for Alshon Jeffery. Regardless, the cap sheet is relatively healthy.
Final Projection
Given everything listed above, here is my projection for the Opening Day 2015 roster:QB: Cutler, Clausen
RB: Forte, Rodgers, Langford, Carey
TE: Bennett, Rosario, Miller, Pascoe
OT: Bushrod, Mills, Leno
OG: Slauson, Long, Ducasse
C: Montgomery, Grasu
WR: Jeffery, Royal, White, Wilson, Bellamy
DE: Ferguson, Jenkins, Sutton, Dunn, Washington
NT: Ratliff, Goldman
OLB: McPhee, Allen, Houston, Acho, Young
ILB: Jones, McClellin, Foster, Bostic, Wells
CB: Fuller, Jennings, Ball, Porter, McManis
S: Vereen, Rolle, Mundy, Amos, Hurst
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, Gafford
That roster contains 23 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 specialists. Should a compelling wide receiver hit the market in the coming weeks, I suspect that the Bears would gobble him up, punting on one of Dunn, Washington, Young, Wells, or Hurst. Until then, the above roster figures to be the 53-man makeup.
2015 NFL Predictions
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (10-6): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (7-9): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (5-11): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to reach January.
St. Louis (8-8): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (3-13): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (2-14): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (9-7): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (7-9): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (2-14): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers in a contract year: get ready for lots and lots of yards.
Kansas City (7-9): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (4-12): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (9-7): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (7-9): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (4-12): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Oakland
5. Cleveland
6. Chicago
7. New York Jets
8. Tampa Bay
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Atlanta
13. Dallas
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. St. Louis
18. Detroit
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next six clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, and the New York Jets - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (10-6): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (7-9): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (5-11): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to reach January.
St. Louis (8-8): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (3-13): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (2-14): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (9-7): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (7-9): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (2-14): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers in a contract year: get ready for lots and lots of yards.
Kansas City (7-9): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (4-12): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (9-7): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (7-9): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (4-12): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Oakland
5. Cleveland
6. Chicago
7. New York Jets
8. Tampa Bay
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Atlanta
13. Dallas
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. St. Louis
18. Detroit
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next six clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, and the New York Jets - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
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