Chicago Bears 2024 Mock Offseason - November 2023 Edition

No lengthy intro to this one. Here's my mock offseason as of November 2023.

Internal Decisions

The Bears have a few big salary cap decisions looming. The most notable decisions, along with my choice on each player, are as follows:

• S Eddie Jackson: $18.14M cap hit, $5.58M dead cap
• Decision: CUT
• C Cody Whitehair: $13.25M cap hit, $4.104M dead cap
• Decision: CUT
• DE DeMarcus Walker: $8.667M cap hit, $4.134M dead cap
• Decision: KEEP
• WR Velus Jones Jr.: $1.474M cap hit, $0.556M dead cap
• Decision: CUT
• RB Travis Homer: $2.125M cap hit, $0.225M dead cap
• Decision: CUT

The Bears currently have $1.859M in dead money for 2024, so adding in the cuts of Jackson, Whitehair, Jones, and Homer, that number grows to $12.324M.

With an adjusted cap of $245.830M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $145.396M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $96.434M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Justin Fields

I remain all-in on Fields...but I think the writing is on the wall. Ryan Poles seems likely to move on from Matt Eberflus this offseason and any new coach will want a new quarterback. So, Poles gives his new coach that opportunity by creating a vacancy, trading Fields to the Falcons for Atlanta's 2025 2nd and Jacksonville's 2024 3rd from the Calvin Ridley trade. Fields becomes a star in Atlanta. The 2025 pick could have conditions on it that make it a 1st or a 3rd depending on certain outcomes, but this feels like the proper basic framework.

Free Agency

The Bears find themselves with a few glaring holes entering 2024. Thankfully, they line up quite well with the strength of the free agent class.

First, the easiest choice: franchise tag Jaylon Johnson, then try to work out an extension. Let's assume the tag is about $20 million on a one-year deal.

The most obvious: C. It's been a disaster for years. Thankfully, the best C in the league -- Miami's Connor Williams -- is a free agent and the Dolphins are more than $20 million over the cap with a bunch of key free agents. The Bears could also target Tyler Biadasz from Dallas or Lloyd Cushenberry from Denver, but go for the best. Bears sign Williams to a five-year, $65 million deal with $30 million guaranteed.

The previous most obvious spot: DE. But the acquisition of Montez Sweat changes the urgency here. The defense doesn't work when it's unable to get pressure by the defensive linemen. With Sweat in tow, the pass rush has improved. But it could certainly get even better. Here's my preference list for 2024:

1. Josh Allen (Jacksonville)
2. Chase Young (San Francisco)
3. Brian Burns (Carolina)
4. Danielle Hunter (Minnesota)
5. Josh Uche (New England)

The franchise tag figures to take a bite out of that market, but some unexpected players reach free agency every year. We'll see who it is in 2024. The Bears will need to be at the top of the list for all free agents. If Allen reaches free agency, back up the Brinks truck. But he won't, so the Bears sign Danielle Hunter to a three-year, $60 million deal with $35 million guaranteed. It's a nice deal to bridge the Bears to their next edge who hopefully comes in via the draft.

After DE, the Bears need to find a new starting S opposite Jaquan Brisker. Eddie Jackson simply can't stay on the field. While he could be brought back on a dramatically reduced contract, it seems more likely that the Poles regime elects to go another way. Again, thankfully, free agency offers great options on the strength of the 2nd round of the 2020 draft:

1. Antoine Winfield Jr. (Tampa Bay)
2. Geno Stone (Baltimore)
3. Grant Delpit (Cleveland)
4. Kyle Dugger (New England)
5. Jeremy Chinn (Carolina)
6. Xavier McKinney (New York Giants)

I'll guess that the Bears avoid the top of that market and nab McKinney on a three-year, $36 million deal with $20 million guaranteed.

Finally, we get to the gaping hole in the wide receiver room left by Chase Claypool's, well, whatever that was and Darnell Mooney's flop of a walk year. The Bears likely don't need to find another star in free agency thanks to the overwhelming presence of D.J. Moore and the relative lack of stars in free agency. Still, they probably need to find another #2/3 before reaching draft day. The options:

1. Michael Pittman (Indianapolis)
2. Marquise Brown (Arizona)
3. Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville)
4. Curtis Samuel (Washington)
5. Darnell Mooney (Chicago)
6. Tee Higgins (Cincinnati)
7. Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati)

I love Pittman, but he'll surely get slapped with the franchise tag. So, instead, let's say that the Bears bring back Mooney on a one-year, $10 million deal.

Regardless of coaching staff or scheme, I think WR Equanimeous St. Brown returns on a one-year, $2 million deal.

There would surely be other free agent additions beyond these big three, but we're likely talking about depth options.

Draft

The main purpose for this article, as it will be every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, an extra 3rd from Jacksonville (per the Fields trade above), and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool. As of the time of publication, the Bears possess #1 overall from Carolina and #4 overall themselves.

Here we go again.

#1: USC QB Caleb Williams

The trade offers will be massive. There will be opportunities to add multiple 1sts, plus other Day Two picks.

I can't pretend to know how to evaluate QBs. I thought Patrick Mahomes was radioactive and wouldn't have touched him. Big whoops! Regardless, Williams has the pedigree and ludicrous production, despite the hilarious shortcomings of his collegiate defenses. Take the top prospect, reset the rookie salary at QB, and give the new coach his new QB.

Bears trade #4 to Tennessee for #10, #41, and a 2025 2nd

This is the most interesting and important decision for Poles to make assuming he consummates a Fields trade. In this mock, I received an idyllic offer from Tennesse that I ultimately took. But that only applies in a situation where the top three picks are Williams, North Carolina QB Drake Maye, and Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. If MHJ makes it to #4, I'm taking him. Passing on Penn State LT Olu Fashanu was tough, but Braxton Jones has really emerged.

Bears trade #10 and #100 to New Orleans for #12 and #49

Too many good players on the board still not to take this deal. In particular, I planned to take one of LSU WR Malik Nabers, Florida State WR Keon Coleman, or Florida State DE Jared Verse.

#12: LSU WR Malik Nabers

Well, Coleman and Verse went off at #10 and #11, so Nabers is the guy. He looks an awful lot like DJ Moore. He may turn into a psychopath if he doesn't get 200 targets a year, but the hit rate on #1 WRs from LSU is very high.

#41: Ohio State DE J.T. Tuimoloau

JTT has the physical traits of a monster star and the production of a solid regular. This is a great spot for him.

#49: Arizona OT Jordan Morgan

Morgan would've been a 1st-round-pick without an ACL tear in 2022. This is a great spot for him and adds an essential depth piece while providing insurance in case Braxton Jones backslides.

#68: Ohio State DT Michael Hall Jr.

Hall has been inconsistent but has the makings of a 3 technique to thrive in a 4-3 defense. This presumes that the basic structure of the defense remains without a formational shift to a 3-4.

#90: Washington WR Jalen McMillan

McMillan is a far cry from teammate Rome Odunze and he might just be a product of the Huskies' high-flying offense...but maybe not. He's worth a shot here.

#128: Iowa TE Luke Lachey

When Iowa TEs come available, just take them, especially when an injury causes them to drop about 50 slots lower than they should be.

#132: Arkansas S Hudson Clark

The former walk-on moves well with a big frame. It's a good time to add a body to the secondary.

Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:

1st (CHI)

2nd (CAR)

2nd (CHI)

2nd (TEN)

3rd (CHI)

4th (CHI)

5th (CHI)

6th (CHI)

6th (MIA)

Final Roster

New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, Khari Blasingame

TE (4): Cole Kmet, Luke Lachey, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Malik Nabers, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Scott, Jalen McMillan, Equanimeous St. Brown

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Jordan Morgan, Larry Borom

OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ja'Tyre Carter

C   (1): Connor Williams

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunter, J.T. Tuimoloau, DeMarcus Walker, Dominique Robinson

DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Michael Hall Jr., FREE AGENT

ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Josh Blackwell

S    (5): Jaquan Brisker, Xavier McKinney, Elijah Hicks, Hudson Clark, Jaylon Jones

ST (3): FREE AGENT, Gill, Scales

At the end of the mock, I found myself wishing that I had taken Minnesota S Tyler Nubin or Utah S Cole Bishop instead of Morgan...which is exactly what a Bears fan would say. No: add the offensive lineman to help your young QB by ensuring that you avoid nightmarish holes when injuries invariably arise.

The defense still feels like it is one impact DT short of being where I want it to be, but otherwise it's in good shape. The offense, on the other hand, has a chance to be special.

Penn State Football Prepares for Another Disappointing Tilt with the Michigan Wolverines

Well, here we are again. Another Penn State-Michigan game is upon us and, yet again, the game comes with serious Big Ten and even national implications. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 of every meaningful ranking system. In both Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings and Jeff Sagarin's computer ratings, Michigan is 1st with Penn State 5th. Michigan is 3rd in the current College Football Playoff rankings with Penn State 10th. Both teams are one spot higher in both the AP and Coaches polls. Simply put, both teams are very highly regarded.

Of course, they've taken different paths to get here. Penn State has played what can be considered, more or less, a relatively standard Big Ten schedule thus far. In addition to a handful of cakewalks, Penn State has played the following teams with the following SP+ rankings:

• #3 Ohio State
• #34 Iowa
• #37 Maryland
• #49 West Virginia

Conversely, Michigan has played...ummm...well, here are their top four opponents thus far per SP+:

• #51 Minnesota
• #53 Rutgers
• #54 Nebraska
• #72 Michigan State

Michigan's schedule has been so egregiously bad so far that six of their nine opponents rank among the bottom half of all 128 FBS squads: #72 Michigan State, #73 UNLV, #88 Purdue, #95 Indiana, #105 Bowling Green, and #117 East Carolina. Sadly, the CFP committee has consistently held the same position with regard to teams with horrific schedules like Michigan's to date: no problem. Just don't lose more than once.

For most teams with such a schedule, the argument that "they haven't played anybody!" would hold lots of water. However, that just doesn't work here. Michigan is coming off of a combined 25-1 regular season record in the prior two seasons, and featured top-15 recruiting classes in 2020 (#10), 2021 (#13), and 2022 (#9). While Michigan is slipping on the recruiting trail -- they ranked 17th in 2023 and are currently 15th in 2024 -- that doesn't matter for this game. They're loaded and ultra productive.

Organizational Malpractice: Ryan Poles and the Bears Trade for Montez Sweat

Montez Sweat is a good football player. He plays a position -- defensive end -- where the Chicago Bears sorely lack for good football players. In a vacuum, acquiring a player like Montez Sweat would seemingly be a good thing.

In reality, acquiring Montez Sweat amounts to organizational malpractice and an all-too-early beginning of the end for the tenure of Ryan Poles as Bears general manager.

As with any acquisition, there are two considerations to make with the trade for Sweat: (i) a determination of what the Bears acquired, and (ii) the cost of doing so. Let's take each prong separately.

Sweat as an Asset

Sweat entered the NFL in 2019 as the 26th overall pick out of Mississippi State. Sweat began his career at Michigan State before being kicked off the team for using marijuana and stealing a bike; not exactly long-term red flags. After a highly productive stint in Starkville, Sweat entered the draft with elite athleticism -- securing a 9.9 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine -- and a 6'6", 260 lbs. frame to hold up in the NFL. And Sweat has done just that. While he has never wowed the NFL, Sweat has steadily produced between five and nine sacks each season of his career, even in 2021 when he missed seven games between a fractured jaw and a positive COVID test.

On the field, Sweat has been a strong, regular presence. Sweat has consistently produced above-average and sometimes elite run defense. Of course, it's 2023 and pass rushers are the ones who really get paid. Sweat hasn't blown away the league with his prowess on the end of the line, but he has proved roughly average in that aspect of the game. Add it together and you have an above-average starting defensive end. Sweat is a very good player.

The above omits four crucial considerations when discussing Sweat as an asset, so let's address them here:

1. Availability. Sweat has been remarkably available during his career, only missing games for the aforementioned jaw and COVID issues.
2. Age. Sweat turned 27 in September 2023.
3. Situation in Washington. Sweat spent his entire tenure in Washington playing alongside blue chip defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne and most of his time in D.C. with fellow blue chip defensive end Chase Young on the other side of the line.
4. Contract. Sweat is currently playing on his fifth-year option and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after the season.

The Cost

Sweat is a good starting defensive end. Unfortunately for the Bears, they paid for him to be a superstar. The pick that the Bears traded for Sweat will almost certainly be in the top-10 picks of the second round. The average pick value for a selection in the 33-42 range is 526 points.

Just how valuable is that?

When the Bears acquired Khalil Mack, they sent the Raiders #24 (740), #19 (875), #81 (185), and #196 (13) for #43 (470) and #226 (2). (Those pick values aren't discounted because, well, I think that pick discounting is absurd; while those future picks were worth less to Ryan Pace and the 2018 Bears, they were worth the exact same amount to the Bears franchise.) The Bears sent picks valued at 1,813 and received picks worth 472 for a net draft pick outlay of 1,341. That's equivalent to the #9 overall pick. In the end, that looks like a rather significant underpay for the future Hall of Famer, even before considering the whiff that those picks became for the Raiders and after considering the massive contract required to mollify Mack. When we account for pick #48 coming back to the Bears when they shipped Mack to the Chargers in 2022 (420 additional points coming back), the net outlay drops to 921 points, akin to the 18th overall pick.

Said another way: the Bears shipped out 39% as much draft value for Montez Sweat as they did for Khalil Mack (57% if you include the 2022 2nd) and will be required to give Sweat a similarly massive contract to keep him.

The Bears smartly negotiated with Mack simultaneously with agreeing to the trade compensation with the Raiders; when the trade was done, so was the extension. Not so with Sweat. As a result, Sweat has the Bears over the barrel. He has an incredible amount of leverage over the Bears, further enhanced by Chicago's baffling interactions with cornerback Jaylon Johnson to date. The Bears simply cannot afford to let Sweat and Johnson both reach the franchise tag deadline without being extended and risk losing one for nothing. Both players know this. We saw this play out with the Giants last year and the result was an outrageous four-year deal for subpar quarterback Daniel Jones that included $92 million guaranteed just so the team could slap the tag on star running back Saquon Barkley.

It boggles my mind that Poles completed the trade for Sweat without the framework of an extension in place. What in the world?

I think Sweat will end up signing with the Bears for $120 million over five years with $65 million guaranteed. This is a hair under the contract that Joey Bosa signed with the Chargers a couple of years ago.

Add up the the brutal cost of a lost top-40 player on a rookie contract plus a market rate extension and there's no sugarcoating it: the Bears paid an astronomical price to get Sweat. The fact that Sweat offers no value to the 2023 Bears makes this even more painful.

But then there's the fact that Sweat's former teammate and follow defensive end, Chase Young, was shipped out a couple of hours later for a substantially less valuable pick makes the trade even more galling. On the draft value chart, San Francisco's compensatory pick figures to be worth about 112 points versus the 526 points the Bears surrendered. Ugh. It's even more remarkable when considering that San Francisco will likely turn Young into a compensatory third-round pick in 2025 to replace the one they traded for Young.

We've heard plenty about how Poles plans to build through the draft. Unfortunately, his actions tell a different story: much like his predecessor, Poles has shown a fundamental lack of understanding value in transactions, instead locking onto his guy to ensure that he brings in his specific player, seemingly without regard to cost.

Much has been made of the new class of the NFC North in Detroit and the culture the Lions have built. To be fair, I'm a huge fan of Coach Dan Campbell and would much prefer to have his intense personality leading the Bears. But, more than anything else, the Lions have been successful in the most predictable way: they've gobbled up way more draft picks than they Bears.

The chart above includes the last four draft classes since those players would still be on their rookie deals. I included 2024 as it pertains to this discussion. Had I gone back to 2019, it would've been even uglier.

If we add up the aggregate pick point value for the Lions from the first four rounds of 2020-24, they have accumulated 14,776 points. Even though the Bears are currently slated to have both #2 and #3 overall next year, their total will be just 11,346. That 3,430 point difference is akin to the #1 overall pick plus the #47 overall pick. If we only tally 2020-23 to reflect players currently on rosters, well, shield your eyes: the Lions have 13,554 versus just 6,179 for the Bears. My God. That gap of 7,375 is equal to two #1 overall picks plus the #8 overall pick. If it feels like the Lions roster is multiple stars ahead of the Bears, that's because it is.

(The Lions admittedly have less cap space heading into 2024 than the Bears and seem likely to throw a foolish monster extension at Jared Goff, but they're so loaded that it isn't likely to slow down the train in the immediate future.)

I'm sure that I'll find a way to get excited about the 2024 Bears again at some point in the coming months. It'll be especially helpful if Poles manages to keep Sweat and Johnson while adding at least one premium defensive lineman in free agency among the following list: defensive ends Josh Allen, Brian Burns, Chase Young, Danielle Hunter, and defensive tackles Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins. Unfortunately, all four of Allen, Burns, Jones, and Wilkins will almost surely be franchise tagged if not earlier extended. That might leave only Young and Hunter as potential free agency fits.

But it's hard to be optimistic right now. The Bears have massive holes at defensive end even if Sweat gets extended, center, defensive tackle, cornerback (if Johnson leaves), safety (once Eddie Jackson gets cut), wide receiver #2, and wide receiver #3. That leaves a lot of holes to fill and doesn't address that quarterback and left tackle are arguably the two most important spots on the offense with the Bears lacking slam-dunk options. So it's possible that Poles solves the above issues by extending Sweat, extending Johnson, signing Young or Hunter, signing Tyler Biadasz or drafting one of Georgia's Sedrick Van Pran or West Virginia's Zach Frazier to play center, signing one of Antoine Winfield Jr./Kyle Dugger/Jeremy Chinn/Xavier McKinney to play alongside Jaquan Brisker at safety, and signing one of Michael Pittman Jr./Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd to join DJ Moore at wide receiver...that's a lot.

Most importantly, Poles has lost the benefit of the doubt when it comes to his decision making. 

In the end, Sweat's acquisition is a significant net negative move for the Bears franchise. It will be nearly impossible for Sweat to live up to the acquisition cost when adding the pick value and the expected contract together. Even if Sweat proves to be productive on the field, continues to avoid injury, and ages well into his early 30s, it's basically unfathomable that he could justify such a lavish outlay of resources.