For many months, the assumption of most Cubs fans, writers, etc. has been that the club will perform one last (hopefully) fire sale this summer, shipping out veteran talent for lottery tickets to dump into the franchise's huge bucket of already accumulated lottery tickets. Over the past few days, I've shared my belief that, given the state of the rebuild, the maturation of the club's top MLB players and MiLB prospects, and this winter's free agent market, the team will do some selling this summer but follow it with a whole boatload of buying this winter.
A key piece of that strategy has been my belief that, after considering all of the facts and circumstances, the Cubs will extend Jeff Samardzija instead of trading him. But I acknowledge the solid possibility that, feeling no attachment to him, the front office will instead ship Samardzija to a contender this summer. At the request of a few folks, here is a rundown of what some offers for Samardzija might look like following one very important caveat.
Transitive properties sometimes do but often don't work in sports. If the Lions beat the Bears and the Bears beat the Packers then the Lions should beat the Packers, right? Of course not. It works that way in trades too because no two people will assess the value of players identically and because no teams share a genuinely identical financial situation. Thus, figuring that Samardzija will return a much better package to the Cubs than Matt Garza did last summer given that Samardzija is solidly a better pitcher with an extra year of club control at a reasonable cost can get you into trouble. Samardzija will return what the June/July market of 2014 dictates; nothing more, nothing less.
What's For Sale, Exactly?
Jeff Samardzija is a 29-year-old starting pitcher with the innings on his arm of a comparable pitcher in his early-to-mid-20s given his dual-sport status through college and his rearing as a relief pitcher as a professional. This will be important to teams. Samardzija is under contract for $5.345M this year and controllable in 2015 in his third and final arbitration season in which he figures to earn approximately $10M, give or take a bit. Thus, an acquiring team at the midpoint of the 2014 season would acquire 1.5 seasons of Samardzija for approximately $12.7M, a significant bargain relative to the cost of comparable pitchers on the free agent market. Samardzija's Baseball Prospectus injury report is, remarkably, completely empty even though BP tracks day-to-day and spring training injuries even if the player misses no games.
Samardzija was a punch line about the futility of the Cubs drafts as recently as a few years ago, but after a promising turn in the bullpen, he has emerged as a quality starting pitcher. Having won a starting job in 2012, Samardzija has posted above-average strikeout rates (between 8.11 and 9.27 K/9), league-average walk rates (approximately 3.00 BB/9), above-average groundball rates, and put the full package together to post FIPs of 3.55, 3.77, and 2.95. Among qualified starters, his FIP ranked 27th (of 88) in 2012, 47th (of 81) in 2013, and 22nd (of 99) in 2014. While those rankings may appear to only range from average to above-average, they must be considered in the context that the only starters to qualify for pitching awards tend to be the best of the best. With only 81 qualified starters in 2013, Samardzija certainly outpitched the majority of starters. While there is the occasional Danny Salazar who pitches wonderfully over a shorter period of time, many of the non-qualified starters are the Chris Rusins and Carlos Villanuevas of the baseball world. Those guys make lots of starts too.
Who's Buying?
We know that the Cubs are selling Samardzija in this hypothetical, but who is interested in his services? It has to be a team with postseason aspirations, almost certainly in 2014, as Samardzija's value is much higher to a team that can use him to make two playoff runs compared to just one. It also has to be a team who needs a starting pitcher. Whereas most higher-priced veterans dealt at the deadline come along with a significant financial price tag, Samardzija does not, as noted above. Realistically, there's not a team in baseball that can't afford to acquire him.
With the above said, I've broken the MLB teams into categories organized by potential interest level:
I. We're Not Contending in 2014
We lose seven of the potential 29 trading in Houston, Texas, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, the Mets, San Diego, and Arizona. The Mets could be aggressively forward-thinking in making a run at Samardzija to pair with Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Bartolo Colon in 2015, but he doesn't seem to be a great fit given their organizational needs. Texas could tread water until some of the injured starters return, but the odds of Jon Daniels dealing with Jed Hoyer again after his experience the last two summers are extremely low. Let's just assume that these seven are out.
II. We Don't Need a Starting Pitcher (at least not badly enough)
Everyone needs starting pitching all the time. With that said, there are different levels of need. We lose seven more teams on this criteria with Washington, Detroit, the Yankees (unless they decide to be the Yankees - always possible), Anaheim, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Cleveland.
III. The A's and Marlins
The A's don't need Samardzija and the Marlins are loaded with pitching prospects ready to contribute. So neither team needs Samardzija. But that's not the reason they won't be acquiring him: they won't be acquiring him because they just don't make moves like that. They're out.
IV. The Possibilities
These nine teams should have plenty of interest in Samardzija, although for one reason or another, they don't seem quite as likely to make a move for him as the clubs in the next group. With a brief description of my take on their interest level, here are the teams ranked in increasing order of likelihood:
San Francisco: The Giants have only handed starts to Bumgarner, Hudson, Vogelsong, Petit, Lincecum, and Cain this year. They're going to let one or two of those guys rebound instead of making a move. I think.
Cincinnati: The Cubs won't like dealing with a division rival and the Reds have gotten roughly average starting thus far anyway. The most likely arm to get bumped based on production would be Tony Cingrani, and after his breakout 2013, I doubt they're interested in pulling the plug on the young lefty.
Pittsburgh: Their starting has been dreadful, ranking last in MLB in WAR. Yet again, it's difficult to imagine the Cubs dealing with a rival against whom they'd like to compete in the coming years. Pittsburgh has the prospects to swing the deal, but I think their presence in the NL Central kills any trade.
Colorado: The Rockies have a +12 run differential but they're 31-35, 3.5 games back of Atlanta and trending aggressively in the wrong direction. Holding steady for a few weeks could change their plans, but I suspect they'll hold off on buying, prefer to pair Eddie Butler and Jon Gray atop the rotation next year while making their run.
Milwaukee: The Brewers would be a solid match for the Cubs were it not for their presence in the NL Central. Milwaukee lacks high-end prospects, but they'd have enough interest to make a substantial offer nonetheless. I don't know if our front office could stomach facing Samardzija and Garza regularly.
Los Angeles: I don't know where to rank them because they make no sense. Their pitching has been underwhelming, but Kershaw, Ryu, Greinke, Haren, and Beckett are all signed to big deals with Billingsley and Maholm providing the crutch. They don't make sense based on their starters, but they would line up beautifully with the Cubs given their prospects, especially AAA OF Joc Pederson.
Kansas City: The Royals are living in no man's land with Yordano Ventura, James Shields, and Jason Vargas all pitching well and the next two spots being a mess. Jeremy Guthrie might turn it on, but Samardzija would make sense for them. Still, with Shields an impending free agent and after giving up so much to acquire him, it's hard to imagine the tiny-market Royals making another huge splash.
Chicago White Sox: The White Sox would get serious consideration to be atop this list if they didn't play in Chicago. Their rotation features two strong starters in ace Chris Sale and mid-rotation guy Jose Quintana. John Danks and Erik Johnson are holding down spots near the back but there's nothing else. They're 3.5 games back of Detroit and building for the medium-term, a plan Samardzija fits into rather nicely given his age and controllability. They're not in the top tier though because (i) they are the crosstown team, and (ii) their prospects just aren't exciting. At all. Let's say no to the ChiSox.
Baltimore: The Orioles are in a tricky spot: their starters have all been average or worse while they've scored enough to be in the thick of the wild card race. Between Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Kevin Gausman, they've got six starters who can pitch reasonably well. The need and interest are probably both there and they've certainly got the prospects to swing the deal, but I just can't get a good read on the O's and what they're going to do.
V. The Favorites
These four teams jump out to me as the clubs most likely to swing a big deal for Samardzija given the totality of their circumstances:
Minnesota: The Twins have parlayed average offense and average pitching into a 31-33 record that has them hanging around the race this year. Their fiscal conservatism has them well positioned to absorb Samardzija's contract. Their rotation is set up perfectly to add him with Phil Hughes pitching exceptionally, Kyle Gibson and Kevin Correia pitching well, and Ricky Nolasco holding his own. They're sub-replacement after those four. They absolutely have the farm system to grab Samardzija without giving up Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano. They'd make perfect sense if there weren't competitors.
Seattle: Felix is a superstar, Iwakuma is excellent, Roenis Elias is pitching well this year, James Paxton has been good but hurt (currently on the 60-day DL), and the rest of the starters have produced -0.8 WAR. Taijuan Walker should be ready soon, so Samardzija would result in bumping Elias when he settles back down. The Mariners have significantly underperformed their +26 run differential at 34-32, but they're in the thick of the race and they've put all of their eggs into the near-term basket. They don't have a true headliner to offer the Cubs, but they've got enough prospect talent to find a match.
Boston: They may surprise some, but they make oodles of sense to me. After Jon Lester and John Lackey, their rotation has been underwhelming all year. They've got enough depth to survive, but they may need a big piece to make a push. Further, with Lester halfway through his walk year, it gets more and more likely every day that he leaves in free agency, creating an opening at the top of the rotation. Their front office has the savvy to appreciate Samardzija's contract value, the cash to extend him, the prospects to make the deal, and the need to add a big starter. They'd top this list if it wasn't for...
Toronto: We've heard about the Jays as a match for Samardzija for over a year, and it's for one simple reason: they just make the most sense. Their rotation ranks 15th in WAR with Mark Buehrle pitching wonderfully, Drew Hutchison pitching well, Marcus Stroman looking strong, and R.A. Dickey holding his own. The rest of the list is full a floaters: Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan, J.A. Happ, and Liam Hendricks. Only Morrow has a FIP under 4.94...and his ERA of 5.93 reflects tons of walks. He's also on the 60-day DL. The Jays hold a 3.5-game lead in the AL East with an impressive +31 run differential. Alex Anthopolous is GM'ing for his job and he's got the pieces to swing the move.
Pfew! How About Some Trade Packages?
Let's finish the marathon! I'll only look at specific packages from the top four contenders.
I expect the Cubs to be very open minded about what they receive. Many assume that the Cubs will only be interested in receiving pitching or that they must receive pitching for the deal to be adequate. I totally disagree. They just need to maximize value. If the Dodgers offer Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and a projectable low-level arm or two, the Cubs would be nuts to refuse the offer because Pederson plays the outfield and Seager the infield. Why take two red-painted dimes if someone offers you two green-painted quarters? Take the quarters!
Anyway. Here's a handful of examples:
Minnesota: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija and 3B Christian Villanueva to Minnesota for RHP Alex Meyer, LHP Lewis Thorpe, LHP Stephen Gonsalves, and 2B Jorge Polanco
Analysis: As mentioned above, the Twins' excellent minor league system enables them to come up with plenty of creative trade proposals. I've been trying to find deals to clear Villanueva out of the Cubs system given that he's about to get lost; Minnesota is a perfect landing spot with Trevor Plouffe uninspiring and Miguel Sano unlikely to stick at 3B.
Meyer is a huge (6'9", 220 lbs.) righty with a massive fastball and power slider. His changeup is plenty good too. The problem is command, and the track record of pitchers with that kind of body and power stuff isn't exciting. Still, if Meyer clicks, he's going to be really good; he's currently pitching well at AAA, although walks continue to plague him. If Kohl Stewart is on the table, the package can get really interesting very quickly. Thorpe, an Australian 18-year-old, has a long way to go but the pitches to make it as a #2 starter. I touched on Gonsalves yesterday: he's a big lefty who was Brady Aiken's teammate last year and he's got first-round stuff. Finally, Polanco figures to end up as a utility guy instead of as an everyday 2B, but he's got enough bat to make it work. This package probably fits the mold of what folks want to see: one big arm, a couple of projectable arms, and maybe some icing on the cake.
Seattle: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija to Seattle for RHP Victor Sanchez, RHP Edwin Diaz, LHP Luiz Gohara, and C Tyler Marlette
Analysis: This is the "oh crap, we're still far away" trade option. Seattle's near-MLB prospects consist of Taijuan Walker and fluff. They're not moving Walker for Samardzija, so the Cubs will have to stock up on Seattle's considerable lower-level pitching depth.
There's no true headliner to this deal. Sanchez is a massive teen in AA, where he's learning that command is extremely important. Diaz looks like C.J. Edwards with a wiry frame holding big stuff. Gohara is probably the closest thing to a centerpiece, but he turns 18 at the end of July and hasn't passed extended spring training; he's got a long, long way to go despite his 6'3", 210 lbs. frame. Marlette likely profiles as a bat-first fringe starter, though that could be a nice complement to Welington Castillo.
Sanchez and Marlette would be the first to arrive, likely in 2016, with Diaz and Gohara following at least a year later. This option would be tough to stomach.
Boston: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija to Boston for LHP Henry Owens, C Blake Swihart, and LHP Trey Ball
Analysis: This is also more like the deal most Cubs fans are probably hoping for. If the BoSox inexplicably made Xander Bogaerts available, I suspect that Jed Hoyer might break his hand shoving the trade into the fax machine for approval from the commissioner's office. Barring that, this deal brings back a reasonable return. Owens is pitching very well at AA currently, and the 2011 first-round-pick is probably ready for AAA. He features an above-average fastball complemented by a pair of solid secondary pitches. At 6'6", 205 lbs., he certainly has the body to start. His primary drawback is that he profiles more as a middle-of-the-rotation arm. Swihart has climbed the ladder methodically and his power is showing up at AA, although his discipline is lacking. He profiles as a better defender than Marlette and he could wrestle the 2016 catching job away from Castillo. Ball is the wild card, 2013's #7 overall selection. He's a big lefty out of Indiana who turns 20 this month and has a 7.12 ERA in A ball. He's going to be a project, but he's got the ceiling to justify being a key piece in a big trade.
Toronto: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija to Toronto for RHP Aaron Sanchez, LHP Daniel Norris, and OF D.J. Davis
Analysis: With Stroman featuring as a key part of their rotation, the Jays figure to keep him. While it would be possible for them to consummate a deal without including Sanchez, it seems highly unlikely, so Sanchez is included here. Sanchez's prospect star has dimmed significantly in 2014 with a BB/9 of 5.45. He continues to record solid strikeout rates, Toronto just promoted him to AAA, and he's developing the arsenal of a top flight starter. If the command doesn't develop, he's just another arm, but there's still time for the soon-to-be-22-year-old.
Norris is the safe acquisition, ironic given his horrific 2012. He rebounded with a solid year in 2013 in the Midwest League and appears to have worn out his welcome in the Florida State League this year, dominating to the tune of a 1.65 FIP. Norris has a big fastball, an above-average slider, a solid changeup, and a fringe curveball. It's all about the low-to-mid-90s heat though, and he's got the pitches to be a very strong #3 starter.
Davis is the extreme lottery ticket. Almost 20, he has received the rare 80 scouting grade for his speed as well as 50s across the board for his other tools. He's exceptionally raw and likely needs at least a full year at each of A, A+, and AA before plenty of time at AAA too. He could easily flame out - the list of leadoff hitters with a 32% K% in A ball is very short and going 6-for-18 on stolen base attempts is horrendous - and his tools aren't playing well even at his low level. Still, the tools are there and we could be talking about a dynamic player if it all clicks.
Regardless, this deal is driven by Sanchez and Norris, two arms that could hold jobs in the Cubs rotation at some point in 2015.
Conclusion
I still hope that the Cubs extend Samardzija instead of trading him, but if they do, they figure to get a very strong package in return that looks at least something like the packages described above. One possible wrinkle is that the Brewers, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, and Royals may all be eligible for a competitive balance draft pick for 2015, an additional asset that could entice the Cubs. Furthermore, the Cubs could also include some of the "slots" of their international amateur free agent bonus pool in order to extract additional prospects from clubs given that the Cubs cannot spend more than $250,000 on any international amateur free agent for the upcoming July 2nd signing period. Unfortunately, moving their top "slot" is basically impossible as, absent some machinations from other teams, the Cubs could only trade their nearly $2.3M slot to Houston or Miami. However, slots #34 ($458,000), #64 ($309,300), and #94 ($206,700) give the Cubs $974,000 of pool space to trade with ease: any MLB club could acquire those slots. Between their $2,288,700 top slot and the $700,000 base amount, the Cubs would still have $2,988,700 to spend on international amateur bonuses, more than enough money to load up on lower bonus projects.
The Samardzija deal could get really interesting. Or it could be really simple. Or it could not happen at all. Gotta love baseball.
Friday, June 13, 2014
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Back Toward Reality, Here's a More Realistic Next Eight Months for the Cubs
In my last entry, I spent time reminding folks that, while money can't buy happiness, it can buy a star-studded starting rotation and it can do so in five months. For a Cubs franchise with big bats littering the prospect landscape but only projectable (and largely injured) starting pitching wild cards, this is welcome news. Having shown that a return to the $100M payroll level could net the 2015 Cubs Jon Lester, James Shields, Seth Smith, and an extended Jeff Samardzija with an excellent bullpen and exciting young, powerful lineup, I now turn to a continued rebuilding strategy that doesn't require the club to sign two of the premier pitching options on the free agent market and one of the top bats (no offense Mr. Smith, but that's more an indictment of the paltry bats than a ringing endorsement of your extreme success hitting against righties).
A few quick facts that should be on the table before this post gets rolling:
Fact #1: Through June 11th, the Cubs starting pitching has produced 6.8 WAR (2nd in MLB) and a 3.33 FIP (also 2nd).
Fact #2: Providing for 36 of the 40-man roster spots in 2015, the Cubs project to spend approximately $93,835,000 on the 40-man roster ($69,785,000), international amateur free agent signing bonuses and salaries ($8,450,000), MLB Rule IV draft signing bonuses ($14,950,000), and dead money for player options ($650,000); this includes $3.1M for Darwin Barney and $2.2M for James Russell, to players who may very well find themselves without jobs next year given declining performance and talent influx. It has been at least a decade since the 25-man Opening Day payroll was less than the $93.835M figure cited above, let alone total organizational player personnel spending.
Fact #3: Total organizational expenditures for the categories stated above during the Ricketts ownership tenure:
2010: $156,485,000
2011: $158,305,000
2012: $138,280,050
2013: $126,991,025
2014: $108,231,344
These figures include penalties incurred for exceeding draft and international bonus pool allotments as well as dead money paid to former players or via contract buyouts. It also includes an increasing estimate for draftees signed after the first 10 rounds as well as an increasing estimate of international amateur free agent bonuses of less than $100,000.
Fact #4: Despite the abject failure of Jose Veras, the Cubs bullpen FIP of 3.51 ranks 11th in MLB.
Fact #5: Jason Hammel is pitching out of his mind. His 2014 numbers versus his previous career bests: ERA (2.81 v. 3.43; his only other year under 4.33), FIP (3.02 v. 3.29; his only other year under 3.70), BB/9 (1.94 v. 2.14; his only other year under 3.10), and HR/9 (0.65 v. 0.69). To say that he is peaking would be a massive understatement. Hammel is a nice pitcher and vaguely reliable - he has had some injury issues in the past - but at 31 years old, it's hard to buy into this improvement particularly given that his batted ball rates are actually a bit worse than his career averages.
Fact #6: Kris Bryant is every bit as good as you've heard he is and even better.
With all of that on the table, here's a look at moves that Cubs fans can hope for in the next eight months or so:
Transaction #1: Cubs Trade SP Jason Hammel to Seattle for SP Victor Sanchez (June/July)
Hammel will be attractive to numerous teams as a cheap, efficient fill-in starter. Interested teams will likely include Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Minnesota, the White Sox, Anaheim, and Boston.
The Seattle rotation has been Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, and lots of blank stares. While the Twins have a similar need, the Mariners have the added desperation factor having put all of their eggs in the 2014 basket. Hammel could be a steadying option for them, bridging the gap as James Paxton and particularly Taijuan Walker work their way into rotation jobs. Sanchez is currently serving up homers for breakfast at AA and he tips the scales over 250 lbs. despite his 6'0" frame. However, 19-year-olds justifiably in AA are extremely rare and he's got the arm to take a shot on him. This return for Hammel might be a bit low, but I'm trying to miss low for the sake of realism.
Transaction #2: Cubs Trade RP Wesley Wright and 3B Christian Villanueva to Anaheim for LHP Ricardo Sanchez and RHP Keynan Middleton (July)
This is a bizarre trade on the surface as there are lots of different things going on. From the Cubs perspective, having both Wesley Wright and James Russell presents a luxury that will be valued more highly elsewhere. While Russell's value is down, Wright's is high. Villanueva is about to be squeezed out of the development picture with superior prospects fighting for his job, so the Cubs would be wise to secure some value for him now.
Wright has stymied lefties to the tune of a 1.23 FIP this year and his production would replace what the Angels thought they would have in the now-injured Sean Burnett. Villanueva provides an alternative to the struggling David Freese, although likely not until 2015. Still, for a team largely bereft of position player prospects, Villanueva is a nice addition as an excellent glove and possibly playable bat at 3B.
Sanchez received a nearly $600,000 bonus out of Venezuela last summer. The 5'10" lefty has forever to go to make it, but the Cubs have shown a regular desire to gobble up this type of player. Middleton is another wild card as an extremely raw 3rd-round-pick from 2013. Neither player figures to contribute for the Angels until 2017 at the earliest, so it's hardly a huge loss for them. They'd never give up the pair for Wright alone, but getting Villanueva back makes this package plenty acceptable to the Halos. The Cubs convert two largely superfluous assets into more volatile ones with a slim chance of being extremely useful.
Transaction #3: Cubs Trade UTIL Emilio Bonifacio to New York Yankees for C JR Muprhy (July)
Ironically, while Bonifacio isn't even a good regular, he's the type of player that the Yankees and Red Sox could fight over given his (i) tremendous defensive value at 2B and solid value at CF, (ii) excellent speed, and (iii) passable offense. It may seem strange to see the Yankees trade a player off of their 25-man roster, but Murphy is about to get completely squeezed out in New York: Brian McCann is signed for four more years, Gary Sanchez is about ready for AAA as the club's top offensive prospect, Peter O'Brien has 20 homers this year already and is at AA, and the team spent $1.2M on Venezuelan prospect Luis Torrens in 2012. The Cubs would certainly prefer Torrens, Sanchez, or O'Brien, but it's difficult to imagine the Yankees parting with one of them for just Bonifacio. Murphy is still a solid get, a fringe-starter and strong backup option, something that the Cubs desperately need given the presence of John Baker and Eli Whiteside. Though Murphy is listed high on many Yankees lists, the ceiling is low and he's realistically a reserve.
Transaction #4: Cubs Trade SP Travis Wood to Minnesota for 2B Jorge Polanco, OF Adam Walker, and LHP Stephen Gonsalves (July)
Top Twins pitching prospects Kohl Stewart and Jose Berrios are both at least a couple of years away from making an impact, and with the team surprisingly competitive, another controllable starter would be hugely valuable to the franchise. Target Field has traditionally been a bit more forgiving to flyball pitchers than Wrigley Field, so Wood's paltry 33.6% GB% would be even less of an issue in Minnesota. Wood would slot into the Minnesota rotation behind Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Kevin Correia, and Ricky Nolasco, giving Minnesota five solid options in the incredibly tight AL Central.
Polanco and Walker are both lower-level prospects. Polanco is intriguing as a diminutive switch-hitter who has shown excellent control of the strike zone, strong hitting ability, and a tiny bit of power. He probably profiles best as a roving reserve, but that kind of player has a home on every good team. If the pop reaches a .130 or .140 ISO, he's probably a strong regular at 2B. Walker is much messier with an alarming strikeout rate that may very well sabotage his career. But there's real power to work with (.203 ISO) and plenty of glove for an every day outfield role. Gonsalves was Brady Aiken's teammate at Cathedral Catholic High School in 2013 and the lanky lefty shined in his debut after being a 4th-round-pick in 2013. He's got a long ways to go, but the flyer is likely the piece that pushes the Cubs to pull the trigger.
From the Cubs' perspective, trading Wood has nothing to do with Wood himself and everything to do with the larger plan that the team should employ this year. If they pursue the transactions that follow, Wood may very well find himself out of a starting job anyway, so the club would be well-advised to extract maximum value for him this July.
Transaction #5: Cubs Extend SP Jeff Samardzija for 6 years, $110M (October/November)
Extending Samardzija should be the least controversial proposal in this post. Samardzija is a near-ace with supreme stuff, a relatively fresh arm given his age, and the makeup to lead the staff. He'd do well to get the Homer Bailey extension given that Bailey is two years younger, but given inflation and the "loser tax" the Cubs will have to pay, $5M more seems reasonable.
Transaction #6: Cubs Sign SP Jon Lester for 5 years, $120M (November/December)
I still think that it's unlikely that Lester leaves Boston, but if it does, it's hard to imagine him ending up anywhere but Wrigley. Although the current Cubs regime came to Boston just after Lester was drafted, they watched his entire career and a built a World Series-winning rotation around him. A five-year deal would carry him through his age-35 season, a seemingly unlikely contract from this front office given their stated preferences. However, I think they'd make a massive exception for Lester and I certainly wouldn't fault them for doing so.
Transaction #7: Cubs Trade OF Albert Almora, OF Jorge Soler, 1B Dan Vogelbach, RP Armando Rivero, and $10M to Miami for OF Giancarlo Stanton (December/January); Cubs Extend Stanton for 6 years, $133M
Boom! Jeffrey Loria has a habit of not paying for players, and Stanton is on track to test the arbitration system records. He is a free agent following the 2016 season, and while Miami could keep him around for a playoff push in 2015, it's basically impossible to imagine Loria forking over $12M+ for Stanton in 2015. Stanton is likely going to hit the trade market.
This haul is absolutely massive for the Marlins and it gives them the offensive prospects that they lack to pair with their pitching surplus. Just as importantly for them, Almora is from south Florida, Torres is Venezuelan, and both Soler and Rivero are Cuban. This is solidly superior to the offer the Marlins accepted for Miguel Cabrera; it's hard to imagine them turning it down.
For the Cubs, this trade represents a new reality in baseball: marquee bats rarely, if ever, hit the free agent market. With Anthony Rizzo in tow and both Kris Bryant and Javier Baez on the way, this type of acquisition may seem unnecessary. On the contrary, I find this to be the best move that the Cubs can make for Bryant and Baez, placing the spotlight much more squarely on Stanton while enabling the prospects to ease their way into the Majors without such a burden on their shoulders. The extension covers Stanton through his age-30 season, enabling him to hit free agency with another massive payday in front of him. It represents salaries of $12M, $18M, $25M, $25M, $25M, and $25M over the six years.
Cashing in the marquee outfield prospects and the blocked 1B Vogelbach as well as some of the club's spending power to acquire a top-ten player before his age-25 season is a truly wise decision from my vantage point.
Transaction #8: Cubs Sign SP Brandon McCarthy for 1 year, $8M
McCarthy's absurd 22% HR/FB% is bound to drop significantly and when it does, he's just another starter with a sub-2.00 BB/9% who can help bridge the gap as Cubs pitching prospects progress up the pipeline. McCarthy is a placeholder but a strong one at that. This move is the one that's less clearly realistic compared to the prior seven.
Pfew! Where Does That Leave Us?
Well, part of the nature of so many transactions is that they can be disorienting. I'll provide a simple recap of what the roster looks like, both in Chicago and on the farm:
Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester - $24M
Jeff Samardzija - $10M
Jake Arrieta - 1.8M (approx)
Brandon McCarthy - $8M
Edwin Jackson - $11M
Analysis: That rotation is very strong...and it better be for $54.8M next year. Kyle Hendricks provides depth as the ready sixth starter. Some of the pressure on Arrieta is alleviated given the depth behind him. This rotation is strong, although it's only strong and not elite.
Relief Pitchers
Hector Rondon - $0.52M (approx)
Neil Ramirez - $0.52M (approx)
Justin Grimm - $0.52M (approx)
Arodys Vizcaino - $0.53M (approx)
Pedro Strop - $1.9M (approx)
James Russell - $2.2M (approx)
Brian Schlitter - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: For just $6.71M, that's one heckuva bullpen. There's some solid depth with the wave of pitching prospects ready to make noise and the likes of Zac Rosscup and Blake Parker still looking for jobs. We've got plenty of arms and with Rondon and Ramirez both looking incredibly sharp, the arrow is decidedly pointing up. Rosscup could replace Russell straightaway, pushing the group's cost down around $5M even.
Catchers
Welington Castillo - $2.9M (approx)
JR Murphy - $0.51M (approx.)
Analysis: This remains the clear weak link in the organization, although Castillo is an average starter and just $3.41M on the position group keeps the price right. Murphy provides a solid cushion while allowing Rafael Lopez to prove that his offensive improvement from 2014 is real at AAA before pushing for an MLB job.
Infielders
Starlin Castro - $6M
Anthony Rizzo - $5M
Kris Bryant - $0.52M (approx)
Javier Baez - $0.52M (approx)
Luis Valbuena - $2.2M (approx)
Logan Watkins - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: Valbuena has played his way into a valuable utility/bench role with some strong defense, tremendous walking, and now some batting average too. But this infield should go, from right to left, Rizzo, Castro/Baez, Baez/Castro, and Bryant. Wowzers. $14.76M gets the group in 2015.
Outfielders
Giancarlo Stanton - $12M
Justin Ruggiano - $3M (approx)
Arismendy Alcantara - $0.52M (approx)
Junior Lake - $0.53M (approx)
Ryan Sweeney - $1.5M
Analysis: I think Alcantara is bound for CF given an organizational need at the position and Baez and Castro both needing middle infield homes. Second, I think that Junior Lake can be the seventh or eighth best starter on an excellent team given his composite contributions to the team; at the very least, it's worth giving him a continued look to see if he can put things together. Ruggiano and Sweeney provide a nice cushion for Alcantara's first MLB gig while also offering solid flexibility off of the bench. This group comes with a $17.55M price tag.
I imagine that the lineup consisting of these players would go something like this:
2B/SS Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
LF Lake
CF Alcantara
C Castillo
But What About the Farm?
The farm serves a very important purpose: to produce assets that can be converted into MLB quality talent. Given the above formulation, the Cubs own farm system produced six of the eight starters with marquee prospects being used to acquire Rizzo and Stanton. That's exactly how it should be done.
If all of these transactions took place, I think that the club's prospects would be left in the following approximate order:
1. LF Kyle Schwarber
2. SP Paul Blackburn
3. SP Jen-Ho Tseng
4. SP Kyle Hendricks
5. SP Pierce Johnson
6. RP C.J. Edwards
7. CF Jacob Hannemann
8. OF Eloy Jimenez
9. SS Gleyber Torres
10. SP Stephen Gonsalves
11. 2B Jorge Polanco
12. SP Victor Sanchez
13. SP Duane Underwood
14. SP Ricardo Sanchez
This group includes only one draftee from the 2014 class: Jake Stinnett, Mark Zagunis, Carson Sands, Justin Steele, Dylan Cease, and James Norwood as well as 2013 draftees Tyler Skulina, Trevor Clifton, and Rob Zastryzny could all make noise while the similarly drafted 2012 pitchers are all returning to health. International amateurs Jefferson Mejia and Erling Moreno offer additional projectable arms.
This top-ten list isn't terribly exciting, but the system is overflowing with useful arms. For that matter, the dearth of offensive prospects atop the list is hardly alarming as the reality is that the lineup is absurdly young: Welington Castillo would be the only regular over the age of 25 in 2015. Castro, Rizzo, Stanton, and Lake will all be 25 while Bryant and Alcantara will be 23 with Baez bringing up the rear at 22. Schwarber figures to move rather quickly, possibly forcing Lake and Alcantara into a fight for playing time in CF. This could be the lineup by the end of 2015 with only a series of eminently reasonable moves:
2B/SS Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
LF Schwarber
2B/SS Baez
CF Alcantara/Lake
C Castillo
Wow. Just wow.
But We Can't Afford That....Right?
The above 25-man roster comes in south of $100M for 2015 at $97.23M, although the true number is $107.23M given the cash payment to the Marlins for taking on Jorge Soler's expensive deal. There are significant increases in 2016 - a $10M raise for Samardzija, a $6M raise for Stanton, and slowly escalating deals for Rizzo and Castro in addition to arbitration raises for Arrieta, Castillo, Valbuena, and some of the relievers - but the total 25-man payroll should still be around $120M in 2016. Incidentally, 2016 also figures to be the first year after which the Cubs have had a successful season in the prior year, knocking down their expenditures on the draft and international amateur bonuses. Furthermore, Edwin Jackson's deal expires after the 2016 season. Obviously he could be flipped sooner if one of the gaggle of prospects pushing for his job outperforms him in the interim.
The Cubs could pull this off making a series of responsible, well-thought moves suitable for a major franchise. The total player personnel expenditures would certainly jump, but what's the point of making all this money if it can't be reinvested in the team to produce a real winner?
A few quick facts that should be on the table before this post gets rolling:
Fact #1: Through June 11th, the Cubs starting pitching has produced 6.8 WAR (2nd in MLB) and a 3.33 FIP (also 2nd).
Fact #2: Providing for 36 of the 40-man roster spots in 2015, the Cubs project to spend approximately $93,835,000 on the 40-man roster ($69,785,000), international amateur free agent signing bonuses and salaries ($8,450,000), MLB Rule IV draft signing bonuses ($14,950,000), and dead money for player options ($650,000); this includes $3.1M for Darwin Barney and $2.2M for James Russell, to players who may very well find themselves without jobs next year given declining performance and talent influx. It has been at least a decade since the 25-man Opening Day payroll was less than the $93.835M figure cited above, let alone total organizational player personnel spending.
Fact #3: Total organizational expenditures for the categories stated above during the Ricketts ownership tenure:
2010: $156,485,000
2011: $158,305,000
2012: $138,280,050
2013: $126,991,025
2014: $108,231,344
These figures include penalties incurred for exceeding draft and international bonus pool allotments as well as dead money paid to former players or via contract buyouts. It also includes an increasing estimate for draftees signed after the first 10 rounds as well as an increasing estimate of international amateur free agent bonuses of less than $100,000.
Fact #4: Despite the abject failure of Jose Veras, the Cubs bullpen FIP of 3.51 ranks 11th in MLB.
Fact #5: Jason Hammel is pitching out of his mind. His 2014 numbers versus his previous career bests: ERA (2.81 v. 3.43; his only other year under 4.33), FIP (3.02 v. 3.29; his only other year under 3.70), BB/9 (1.94 v. 2.14; his only other year under 3.10), and HR/9 (0.65 v. 0.69). To say that he is peaking would be a massive understatement. Hammel is a nice pitcher and vaguely reliable - he has had some injury issues in the past - but at 31 years old, it's hard to buy into this improvement particularly given that his batted ball rates are actually a bit worse than his career averages.
Fact #6: Kris Bryant is every bit as good as you've heard he is and even better.
With all of that on the table, here's a look at moves that Cubs fans can hope for in the next eight months or so:
Transaction #1: Cubs Trade SP Jason Hammel to Seattle for SP Victor Sanchez (June/July)
Hammel will be attractive to numerous teams as a cheap, efficient fill-in starter. Interested teams will likely include Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Minnesota, the White Sox, Anaheim, and Boston.
The Seattle rotation has been Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, and lots of blank stares. While the Twins have a similar need, the Mariners have the added desperation factor having put all of their eggs in the 2014 basket. Hammel could be a steadying option for them, bridging the gap as James Paxton and particularly Taijuan Walker work their way into rotation jobs. Sanchez is currently serving up homers for breakfast at AA and he tips the scales over 250 lbs. despite his 6'0" frame. However, 19-year-olds justifiably in AA are extremely rare and he's got the arm to take a shot on him. This return for Hammel might be a bit low, but I'm trying to miss low for the sake of realism.
Transaction #2: Cubs Trade RP Wesley Wright and 3B Christian Villanueva to Anaheim for LHP Ricardo Sanchez and RHP Keynan Middleton (July)
This is a bizarre trade on the surface as there are lots of different things going on. From the Cubs perspective, having both Wesley Wright and James Russell presents a luxury that will be valued more highly elsewhere. While Russell's value is down, Wright's is high. Villanueva is about to be squeezed out of the development picture with superior prospects fighting for his job, so the Cubs would be wise to secure some value for him now.
Wright has stymied lefties to the tune of a 1.23 FIP this year and his production would replace what the Angels thought they would have in the now-injured Sean Burnett. Villanueva provides an alternative to the struggling David Freese, although likely not until 2015. Still, for a team largely bereft of position player prospects, Villanueva is a nice addition as an excellent glove and possibly playable bat at 3B.
Sanchez received a nearly $600,000 bonus out of Venezuela last summer. The 5'10" lefty has forever to go to make it, but the Cubs have shown a regular desire to gobble up this type of player. Middleton is another wild card as an extremely raw 3rd-round-pick from 2013. Neither player figures to contribute for the Angels until 2017 at the earliest, so it's hardly a huge loss for them. They'd never give up the pair for Wright alone, but getting Villanueva back makes this package plenty acceptable to the Halos. The Cubs convert two largely superfluous assets into more volatile ones with a slim chance of being extremely useful.
Transaction #3: Cubs Trade UTIL Emilio Bonifacio to New York Yankees for C JR Muprhy (July)
Ironically, while Bonifacio isn't even a good regular, he's the type of player that the Yankees and Red Sox could fight over given his (i) tremendous defensive value at 2B and solid value at CF, (ii) excellent speed, and (iii) passable offense. It may seem strange to see the Yankees trade a player off of their 25-man roster, but Murphy is about to get completely squeezed out in New York: Brian McCann is signed for four more years, Gary Sanchez is about ready for AAA as the club's top offensive prospect, Peter O'Brien has 20 homers this year already and is at AA, and the team spent $1.2M on Venezuelan prospect Luis Torrens in 2012. The Cubs would certainly prefer Torrens, Sanchez, or O'Brien, but it's difficult to imagine the Yankees parting with one of them for just Bonifacio. Murphy is still a solid get, a fringe-starter and strong backup option, something that the Cubs desperately need given the presence of John Baker and Eli Whiteside. Though Murphy is listed high on many Yankees lists, the ceiling is low and he's realistically a reserve.
Transaction #4: Cubs Trade SP Travis Wood to Minnesota for 2B Jorge Polanco, OF Adam Walker, and LHP Stephen Gonsalves (July)
Top Twins pitching prospects Kohl Stewart and Jose Berrios are both at least a couple of years away from making an impact, and with the team surprisingly competitive, another controllable starter would be hugely valuable to the franchise. Target Field has traditionally been a bit more forgiving to flyball pitchers than Wrigley Field, so Wood's paltry 33.6% GB% would be even less of an issue in Minnesota. Wood would slot into the Minnesota rotation behind Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Kevin Correia, and Ricky Nolasco, giving Minnesota five solid options in the incredibly tight AL Central.
Polanco and Walker are both lower-level prospects. Polanco is intriguing as a diminutive switch-hitter who has shown excellent control of the strike zone, strong hitting ability, and a tiny bit of power. He probably profiles best as a roving reserve, but that kind of player has a home on every good team. If the pop reaches a .130 or .140 ISO, he's probably a strong regular at 2B. Walker is much messier with an alarming strikeout rate that may very well sabotage his career. But there's real power to work with (.203 ISO) and plenty of glove for an every day outfield role. Gonsalves was Brady Aiken's teammate at Cathedral Catholic High School in 2013 and the lanky lefty shined in his debut after being a 4th-round-pick in 2013. He's got a long ways to go, but the flyer is likely the piece that pushes the Cubs to pull the trigger.
From the Cubs' perspective, trading Wood has nothing to do with Wood himself and everything to do with the larger plan that the team should employ this year. If they pursue the transactions that follow, Wood may very well find himself out of a starting job anyway, so the club would be well-advised to extract maximum value for him this July.
Transaction #5: Cubs Extend SP Jeff Samardzija for 6 years, $110M (October/November)
Extending Samardzija should be the least controversial proposal in this post. Samardzija is a near-ace with supreme stuff, a relatively fresh arm given his age, and the makeup to lead the staff. He'd do well to get the Homer Bailey extension given that Bailey is two years younger, but given inflation and the "loser tax" the Cubs will have to pay, $5M more seems reasonable.
Transaction #6: Cubs Sign SP Jon Lester for 5 years, $120M (November/December)
I still think that it's unlikely that Lester leaves Boston, but if it does, it's hard to imagine him ending up anywhere but Wrigley. Although the current Cubs regime came to Boston just after Lester was drafted, they watched his entire career and a built a World Series-winning rotation around him. A five-year deal would carry him through his age-35 season, a seemingly unlikely contract from this front office given their stated preferences. However, I think they'd make a massive exception for Lester and I certainly wouldn't fault them for doing so.
Transaction #7: Cubs Trade OF Albert Almora, OF Jorge Soler, 1B Dan Vogelbach, RP Armando Rivero, and $10M to Miami for OF Giancarlo Stanton (December/January); Cubs Extend Stanton for 6 years, $133M
Boom! Jeffrey Loria has a habit of not paying for players, and Stanton is on track to test the arbitration system records. He is a free agent following the 2016 season, and while Miami could keep him around for a playoff push in 2015, it's basically impossible to imagine Loria forking over $12M+ for Stanton in 2015. Stanton is likely going to hit the trade market.
This haul is absolutely massive for the Marlins and it gives them the offensive prospects that they lack to pair with their pitching surplus. Just as importantly for them, Almora is from south Florida, Torres is Venezuelan, and both Soler and Rivero are Cuban. This is solidly superior to the offer the Marlins accepted for Miguel Cabrera; it's hard to imagine them turning it down.
For the Cubs, this trade represents a new reality in baseball: marquee bats rarely, if ever, hit the free agent market. With Anthony Rizzo in tow and both Kris Bryant and Javier Baez on the way, this type of acquisition may seem unnecessary. On the contrary, I find this to be the best move that the Cubs can make for Bryant and Baez, placing the spotlight much more squarely on Stanton while enabling the prospects to ease their way into the Majors without such a burden on their shoulders. The extension covers Stanton through his age-30 season, enabling him to hit free agency with another massive payday in front of him. It represents salaries of $12M, $18M, $25M, $25M, $25M, and $25M over the six years.
Cashing in the marquee outfield prospects and the blocked 1B Vogelbach as well as some of the club's spending power to acquire a top-ten player before his age-25 season is a truly wise decision from my vantage point.
Transaction #8: Cubs Sign SP Brandon McCarthy for 1 year, $8M
McCarthy's absurd 22% HR/FB% is bound to drop significantly and when it does, he's just another starter with a sub-2.00 BB/9% who can help bridge the gap as Cubs pitching prospects progress up the pipeline. McCarthy is a placeholder but a strong one at that. This move is the one that's less clearly realistic compared to the prior seven.
Pfew! Where Does That Leave Us?
Well, part of the nature of so many transactions is that they can be disorienting. I'll provide a simple recap of what the roster looks like, both in Chicago and on the farm:
Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester - $24M
Jeff Samardzija - $10M
Jake Arrieta - 1.8M (approx)
Brandon McCarthy - $8M
Edwin Jackson - $11M
Analysis: That rotation is very strong...and it better be for $54.8M next year. Kyle Hendricks provides depth as the ready sixth starter. Some of the pressure on Arrieta is alleviated given the depth behind him. This rotation is strong, although it's only strong and not elite.
Relief Pitchers
Hector Rondon - $0.52M (approx)
Neil Ramirez - $0.52M (approx)
Justin Grimm - $0.52M (approx)
Arodys Vizcaino - $0.53M (approx)
Pedro Strop - $1.9M (approx)
James Russell - $2.2M (approx)
Brian Schlitter - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: For just $6.71M, that's one heckuva bullpen. There's some solid depth with the wave of pitching prospects ready to make noise and the likes of Zac Rosscup and Blake Parker still looking for jobs. We've got plenty of arms and with Rondon and Ramirez both looking incredibly sharp, the arrow is decidedly pointing up. Rosscup could replace Russell straightaway, pushing the group's cost down around $5M even.
Catchers
Welington Castillo - $2.9M (approx)
JR Murphy - $0.51M (approx.)
Analysis: This remains the clear weak link in the organization, although Castillo is an average starter and just $3.41M on the position group keeps the price right. Murphy provides a solid cushion while allowing Rafael Lopez to prove that his offensive improvement from 2014 is real at AAA before pushing for an MLB job.
Infielders
Starlin Castro - $6M
Anthony Rizzo - $5M
Kris Bryant - $0.52M (approx)
Javier Baez - $0.52M (approx)
Luis Valbuena - $2.2M (approx)
Logan Watkins - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: Valbuena has played his way into a valuable utility/bench role with some strong defense, tremendous walking, and now some batting average too. But this infield should go, from right to left, Rizzo, Castro/Baez, Baez/Castro, and Bryant. Wowzers. $14.76M gets the group in 2015.
Outfielders
Giancarlo Stanton - $12M
Justin Ruggiano - $3M (approx)
Arismendy Alcantara - $0.52M (approx)
Junior Lake - $0.53M (approx)
Ryan Sweeney - $1.5M
Analysis: I think Alcantara is bound for CF given an organizational need at the position and Baez and Castro both needing middle infield homes. Second, I think that Junior Lake can be the seventh or eighth best starter on an excellent team given his composite contributions to the team; at the very least, it's worth giving him a continued look to see if he can put things together. Ruggiano and Sweeney provide a nice cushion for Alcantara's first MLB gig while also offering solid flexibility off of the bench. This group comes with a $17.55M price tag.
I imagine that the lineup consisting of these players would go something like this:
2B/SS Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
LF Lake
CF Alcantara
C Castillo
But What About the Farm?
The farm serves a very important purpose: to produce assets that can be converted into MLB quality talent. Given the above formulation, the Cubs own farm system produced six of the eight starters with marquee prospects being used to acquire Rizzo and Stanton. That's exactly how it should be done.
If all of these transactions took place, I think that the club's prospects would be left in the following approximate order:
1. LF Kyle Schwarber
2. SP Paul Blackburn
3. SP Jen-Ho Tseng
4. SP Kyle Hendricks
5. SP Pierce Johnson
6. RP C.J. Edwards
7. CF Jacob Hannemann
8. OF Eloy Jimenez
9. SS Gleyber Torres
10. SP Stephen Gonsalves
11. 2B Jorge Polanco
12. SP Victor Sanchez
13. SP Duane Underwood
14. SP Ricardo Sanchez
This group includes only one draftee from the 2014 class: Jake Stinnett, Mark Zagunis, Carson Sands, Justin Steele, Dylan Cease, and James Norwood as well as 2013 draftees Tyler Skulina, Trevor Clifton, and Rob Zastryzny could all make noise while the similarly drafted 2012 pitchers are all returning to health. International amateurs Jefferson Mejia and Erling Moreno offer additional projectable arms.
This top-ten list isn't terribly exciting, but the system is overflowing with useful arms. For that matter, the dearth of offensive prospects atop the list is hardly alarming as the reality is that the lineup is absurdly young: Welington Castillo would be the only regular over the age of 25 in 2015. Castro, Rizzo, Stanton, and Lake will all be 25 while Bryant and Alcantara will be 23 with Baez bringing up the rear at 22. Schwarber figures to move rather quickly, possibly forcing Lake and Alcantara into a fight for playing time in CF. This could be the lineup by the end of 2015 with only a series of eminently reasonable moves:
2B/SS Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
LF Schwarber
2B/SS Baez
CF Alcantara/Lake
C Castillo
Wow. Just wow.
But We Can't Afford That....Right?
The above 25-man roster comes in south of $100M for 2015 at $97.23M, although the true number is $107.23M given the cash payment to the Marlins for taking on Jorge Soler's expensive deal. There are significant increases in 2016 - a $10M raise for Samardzija, a $6M raise for Stanton, and slowly escalating deals for Rizzo and Castro in addition to arbitration raises for Arrieta, Castillo, Valbuena, and some of the relievers - but the total 25-man payroll should still be around $120M in 2016. Incidentally, 2016 also figures to be the first year after which the Cubs have had a successful season in the prior year, knocking down their expenditures on the draft and international amateur bonuses. Furthermore, Edwin Jackson's deal expires after the 2016 season. Obviously he could be flipped sooner if one of the gaggle of prospects pushing for his job outperforms him in the interim.
The Cubs could pull this off making a series of responsible, well-thought moves suitable for a major franchise. The total player personnel expenditures would certainly jump, but what's the point of making all this money if it can't be reinvested in the team to produce a real winner?
What If the Cubs Spend Like a Big Market Team This Winter?
General Manager Jed Hoyer sang beautiful music to the ears of long-suffering Cubs fans today when he expressed a desire to add veterans to the roster to supplement the team's emerging youth movement. The addition of legitimate major league talent is needed and welcome.
Some folks think that this likely means the addition of a mid-tier free agent on a short- or medium-term deal such as platoon OF Seth Smith or perhaps SP Brandon McCarthy. Smith would be an excellent offensive partner for Justin Ruggiano in an outfield corner and McCarthy would be a solid addition, provided that his impossible 21.4% HR/FB% dropped.
But there's no sense in thinking small. Let's think big. Like really big.
I've thrown around some trade ideas in recent weeks in various places (if the Marlins fall back, would they take OF Albert Almora, OF Jorge Soler, 2B/UTIL Arismendy Alcantara, and RP C.J. Edwards for OF Giancarlo Stanton? They'd certainly consider the deal), but I've long been a proponent of signing talent, viewing trades as an inefficient transfer of talent: given the option, why trade young talent to acquire older talent when you can just acquire older talent for cash? The notion of the overpay grinds me. First off, it's not any of our money except for the Ricketts family. Second, we're among the five richest clubs in the sport. And third, is it really an overpay to spend $25M per year on Masahiro Tanaka when David Price would cost you $23M per year plus four of your best prospects? That question answers itself.
So let's imagine a 2014-15 offseason in which the Cubs decide that their time has come to supplement the youth movement with marquee veteran acquisitions. Sure, these contracts will almost certainly end up being less efficient that having the first six years of Kris Bryant's career filling all eight spots in the lineup or having a rotation with five Sonny Grays, but this roster is attainable within the parameters of reasonable spending for the Cubs without mortgaging the future in any way.
Without further adieu, imagine the following transactions and the excitement that they would generate:
Transaction #1: Cubs trade SP Jason Hammel and 3B Christian Villanueva to Milwaukee Brewers for OF Tyrone Taylor and RP Taylor Williams
Why Milwaukee Does It: The Brewers are sitting atop the NL Central on the strength of a great offense, but their starting pitching ranks 28th in MLB in WAR with Marco Estrada's -0.6 WAR particularly damning; he was recently lifted from the rotation to make way for 25-year-old prospect Jimmy Nelson. Hammel would be a solid upgrade for a rotation in need of his steadying presence. Villanueva gives them a second division 3B prospect to step in for Aramis Ramirez, a free agent at year's end. Taylor and Williams are both years away from helping, with Taylor still very raw and Williams likely headed to the bullpen.
Why the Cubs Do It: Hammel is producing extremely well right now. Too well. He doesn't figure to stay this strong and when he regresses, he's just a guy three months from free agency. He doesn't fit the medium- or long-term plan, so extracting value makes sense. Villanueva is completely superfluous given Bryant and even Javier Baez pushing him for the 3B job in addition to Luis Valbuena and even the remains of Mike Olt's bat. Taylor gives the Cubs an athletic CF candidate who needs lots of work and time while Williams fits the mold of undersized righty likely destined for the bullpen with big stuff.
Closing Thought: The basic idea is to trade Hammel for a decent return. I suspect that this will happen relatively soon.
Transaction #2: Cubs sign SP Jeff Samardzija to 6 year, $110M extension covering 2015-20 seasons sometime prior to late October (assume $10M in Y1, then $20M each year thereafter)
Why Samardzija Does It: This is a lot of money. This deal gives him effectively the market rate in covering five free agent years for ages 31-35. That's tough to pass up. He's a NW Indiana kid who should be attracted to the idea of being around when the win totals push into the 90s.
Why the Cubs Do It: Simply put, Samardzija has blossomed into what the Cubs dreamed he would. Maybe he's not quite an ace, but he's an excellent #2 on a championship club with superb pitches who continually shows increased aptitude when it comes to pitching. By all accounts, he's a well-liked teammate and the Cubs need to find top-end pitching somewhere. It's sitting right under their noses.
Closing Thought: Trading Samardzija just doesn't make all that much sense with so many huge offensive pieces close to arriving.
Transaction #3: Cubs sign SP James Shields to 4 year, $80M contract covering the 2015-18 seasons with a mutual option for 2019 (something like $25M option, $4M buyout)
Why Shields Does It: Cash money! And the Cubs are on the rise while the Royals have stagnated. Shields needs a team that can win in the next couple of years if he's going to find a ring.
Why the Cubs Do It: Max Scherzer has never posted a groundball rate above 42%, being under 37% for the last three years. While that works in cavernous Comerica Park, it's less likely to succeed in Chicago. Shields, on the other hand, has the complete package: a solid strikeout rate (7.73/9), an excellent walk rate (2.18/9), a reasonable home run rate that has been good for three years, and an xFIP between 3.24 and 3.72 for the last five years. Everyone wants younger guys; the old guys are about to become the next market inefficiency and the Cubs pounce.
Closing Thought: Shields relies most heavily on his cutter and his changeup, throwing just 40% fastballs. He should age well and the Oliver projection system loves him just as much as Scherzer even though the market is likely to dictate much less for Shields.
Transaction #4: Cubs sign SP Jon Lester to 5 year, $120M contract covering the 2015-19 seasons
Why Lester Does It: This only works if he feels slighted by the Boston front office and feels some affinity for Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod. I have to imagine that they can sell him on their ability to build a winner with him anchoring the pitching staff.
Why the Cubs Do It: This is the signing that makes less sense on paper than any other as Lester would be paid for his ages 31-35 seasons while he has been a steady, non-star performer for ages 27-30. Lester gets lots of bonus points for the intangibles/leadership/experience/playoff success jumble of hard-to-quantify value.
Closing Thought: Lester is just a good pitcher who should age reasonably well as his walk rate has been dropping for years and his fastball velocity is holding relatively steady at 92. He's very attractive for quantifiable and non-quantifiable reasons.
Transaction #5: Cubs sign OF Seth Smith to 2 year, $15M contract covering the 2015-16 seasons
Why Smith Does It: Smith turns 32 in September and has made just under $12M in his career. This is a big payday. It's possible that something will give him significantly more, but even a big spike in production this year can't hide the fact that he's clearly a platoon outfielder with serious splits.
Why the Cubs Do It: To buy some time for Soler and Almora and to infuse the lineup with some additional on-base ability. Plus, with so many early-to-mid-20s bats filling the lineup, Smith could provide some day-to-day leadership.
Closing Thought: I love thoughtful platoons.
That's five big transactions: one trade, one extension, and three free agent splashes. I certainly don't expect the Cubs to pull off these exact moves, but I think that it's important to evaluate what exactly such an offseason would mean (and regular season trade in the case of Hammel). Provided that these moves were made, here is the approximate 2015 roster by mid-April when Baez, Bryant, and Alcantara can all be called up without attaining a full year of service time:
Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester - $24M
Jeff Samardzija - $10M
James Shields - $20M
Jake Arrieta - 1.8M (approx)
Edwin Jackson - $11M
Analysis: That rotation is superb...and it better be for $66.8M next year. Travis Wood finds himself homeless two years removed from an All-Star appearance. Wood can slot in as the long man in the bullpen or he can be traded with Kyle Hendricks assuming the role of the sixth starter. Whereas Arrieta appears to have turned a corner, Wood is staring down his fourth straight year with his xFIP in the neighborhood of 4.50. Meh.
Relief Pitchers
Hector Rondon - $0.52M (approx)
Neil Ramirez - $0.52M (approx)
Justin Grimm - $0.52M (approx)
Arodys Vizcaino - $0.53M (approx)
Pedro Strop - $1.9M (approx)
Wesley Wright - $1.8M (approx)
Brian Schlitter - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: For just $6.31M, that's one heckuva bullpen. There's some solid depth with the wave of pitching prospects ready to make noise and the likes of Zac Rosscup, Blake Parker, and James Russell lurking for jobs. We've got plenty of arms and with Rondon and Ramirez both looking incredibly sharp, the arrow is decidedly pointing up.
Catchers
Welington Castillo - $2.9M (approx)
Rafael Lopez - $0.51M (approx)
Analysis: This remains the clear weak link in the organization, although Castillo is an average starter and just $3.41M on the position group keeps the price right.
Infielders
Starlin Castro - $6M
Anthony Rizzo - $5M
Kris Bryant - $0.52M (approx)
Javier Baez - $0.52M (approx)
Luis Valbuena - $2.2M (approx)
Logan Watkins - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: Valbuena has played his way into a valuable utility/bench role with some strong defense, tremendous walking, and now some batting average too. But this infield should go, from right to left, Rizzo, Castro/Baez, Baez/Castro, and Bryant. Wowzers. $14.76M gets the group in 2015.
Outfielders
Seth Smith - $7.5M
Justin Ruggiano - $3M (approx)
Arismendy Alcantara - $0.52M (approx)
Junior Lake - $0.53M (approx)
Ryan Sweeney - $1.5M
Analysis: I'm a believer in two things. First, I think Alcantara is bound for CF given an organizational need at the position and Baez and Castro both needing middle infield homes. Second, I think that Junior Lake is the seventh or eighth best starter on an excellent team given his composite contributions to the team. With that in mind, the Smith-Ruggiano platoon in LF provides the club with a strong bench bat and a strong #2 hitter each day. The platoon is expensive, but it provides Soler and Kyle Schwarber with the necessary development time. This group comes with a $13.05M price tag.
Given a $66.8M rotation, $6.31M bullpen, $14.76M infield, and $13.05M outfield, the total spending for 2015 would be $100.92M on the 25-man roster. That would represent a significant jump from this year's payroll where the entire 40-man roster ate up just under $77M; adding in dead money for Alfonso Soriano and Scott Hairston pushes that number to approximately $91.5M. Filling the remainder of the 2015 40-man roster with minimum salary players, the 40-man number would reach approximately $108.7M. Adding in contract buyouts for Kyuji Fujikawa and Jose Veras gets the number to just shy of $109.5M.
So there it is. The Cubs could field arguably the top rotation in baseball with Lester-Samardzija-Shields-Arrieta-Edwin and roll with the following everyday lineup:
LF Smith/Ruggiano
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
SS/2B Castro
CF Alcantara
RF Lake
C Castillo
Even if that lineup would have some ups and downs, it would nonetheless be an interesting group and an exciting one with Soler, Almora, and Schwarber all potentially pushing for jobs by 2016 or constituting excellent trade bait. If you want to have even more lineup fun, just imagine Dan Jennings saying no to an offer of Soler, Almora, Edwards, Johnson, and Dan Vogelbach for Giancarlo Stanton. The lineup would admittedly increase in expense to around $120M for the 2015 40-man roster, although the increase could largely be offset by declining to sign Seth Smith. A batting order of...
CF Alcantara
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
SS/2B Castro
LF Lake
C Castillo
...actually makes me drool. Wowzers. All of this is within reach.
Some folks think that this likely means the addition of a mid-tier free agent on a short- or medium-term deal such as platoon OF Seth Smith or perhaps SP Brandon McCarthy. Smith would be an excellent offensive partner for Justin Ruggiano in an outfield corner and McCarthy would be a solid addition, provided that his impossible 21.4% HR/FB% dropped.
But there's no sense in thinking small. Let's think big. Like really big.
I've thrown around some trade ideas in recent weeks in various places (if the Marlins fall back, would they take OF Albert Almora, OF Jorge Soler, 2B/UTIL Arismendy Alcantara, and RP C.J. Edwards for OF Giancarlo Stanton? They'd certainly consider the deal), but I've long been a proponent of signing talent, viewing trades as an inefficient transfer of talent: given the option, why trade young talent to acquire older talent when you can just acquire older talent for cash? The notion of the overpay grinds me. First off, it's not any of our money except for the Ricketts family. Second, we're among the five richest clubs in the sport. And third, is it really an overpay to spend $25M per year on Masahiro Tanaka when David Price would cost you $23M per year plus four of your best prospects? That question answers itself.
So let's imagine a 2014-15 offseason in which the Cubs decide that their time has come to supplement the youth movement with marquee veteran acquisitions. Sure, these contracts will almost certainly end up being less efficient that having the first six years of Kris Bryant's career filling all eight spots in the lineup or having a rotation with five Sonny Grays, but this roster is attainable within the parameters of reasonable spending for the Cubs without mortgaging the future in any way.
Without further adieu, imagine the following transactions and the excitement that they would generate:
Transaction #1: Cubs trade SP Jason Hammel and 3B Christian Villanueva to Milwaukee Brewers for OF Tyrone Taylor and RP Taylor Williams
Why Milwaukee Does It: The Brewers are sitting atop the NL Central on the strength of a great offense, but their starting pitching ranks 28th in MLB in WAR with Marco Estrada's -0.6 WAR particularly damning; he was recently lifted from the rotation to make way for 25-year-old prospect Jimmy Nelson. Hammel would be a solid upgrade for a rotation in need of his steadying presence. Villanueva gives them a second division 3B prospect to step in for Aramis Ramirez, a free agent at year's end. Taylor and Williams are both years away from helping, with Taylor still very raw and Williams likely headed to the bullpen.
Why the Cubs Do It: Hammel is producing extremely well right now. Too well. He doesn't figure to stay this strong and when he regresses, he's just a guy three months from free agency. He doesn't fit the medium- or long-term plan, so extracting value makes sense. Villanueva is completely superfluous given Bryant and even Javier Baez pushing him for the 3B job in addition to Luis Valbuena and even the remains of Mike Olt's bat. Taylor gives the Cubs an athletic CF candidate who needs lots of work and time while Williams fits the mold of undersized righty likely destined for the bullpen with big stuff.
Closing Thought: The basic idea is to trade Hammel for a decent return. I suspect that this will happen relatively soon.
Transaction #2: Cubs sign SP Jeff Samardzija to 6 year, $110M extension covering 2015-20 seasons sometime prior to late October (assume $10M in Y1, then $20M each year thereafter)
Why Samardzija Does It: This is a lot of money. This deal gives him effectively the market rate in covering five free agent years for ages 31-35. That's tough to pass up. He's a NW Indiana kid who should be attracted to the idea of being around when the win totals push into the 90s.
Why the Cubs Do It: Simply put, Samardzija has blossomed into what the Cubs dreamed he would. Maybe he's not quite an ace, but he's an excellent #2 on a championship club with superb pitches who continually shows increased aptitude when it comes to pitching. By all accounts, he's a well-liked teammate and the Cubs need to find top-end pitching somewhere. It's sitting right under their noses.
Closing Thought: Trading Samardzija just doesn't make all that much sense with so many huge offensive pieces close to arriving.
Transaction #3: Cubs sign SP James Shields to 4 year, $80M contract covering the 2015-18 seasons with a mutual option for 2019 (something like $25M option, $4M buyout)
Why Shields Does It: Cash money! And the Cubs are on the rise while the Royals have stagnated. Shields needs a team that can win in the next couple of years if he's going to find a ring.
Why the Cubs Do It: Max Scherzer has never posted a groundball rate above 42%, being under 37% for the last three years. While that works in cavernous Comerica Park, it's less likely to succeed in Chicago. Shields, on the other hand, has the complete package: a solid strikeout rate (7.73/9), an excellent walk rate (2.18/9), a reasonable home run rate that has been good for three years, and an xFIP between 3.24 and 3.72 for the last five years. Everyone wants younger guys; the old guys are about to become the next market inefficiency and the Cubs pounce.
Closing Thought: Shields relies most heavily on his cutter and his changeup, throwing just 40% fastballs. He should age well and the Oliver projection system loves him just as much as Scherzer even though the market is likely to dictate much less for Shields.
Transaction #4: Cubs sign SP Jon Lester to 5 year, $120M contract covering the 2015-19 seasons
Why Lester Does It: This only works if he feels slighted by the Boston front office and feels some affinity for Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod. I have to imagine that they can sell him on their ability to build a winner with him anchoring the pitching staff.
Why the Cubs Do It: This is the signing that makes less sense on paper than any other as Lester would be paid for his ages 31-35 seasons while he has been a steady, non-star performer for ages 27-30. Lester gets lots of bonus points for the intangibles/leadership/experience/playoff success jumble of hard-to-quantify value.
Closing Thought: Lester is just a good pitcher who should age reasonably well as his walk rate has been dropping for years and his fastball velocity is holding relatively steady at 92. He's very attractive for quantifiable and non-quantifiable reasons.
Transaction #5: Cubs sign OF Seth Smith to 2 year, $15M contract covering the 2015-16 seasons
Why Smith Does It: Smith turns 32 in September and has made just under $12M in his career. This is a big payday. It's possible that something will give him significantly more, but even a big spike in production this year can't hide the fact that he's clearly a platoon outfielder with serious splits.
Why the Cubs Do It: To buy some time for Soler and Almora and to infuse the lineup with some additional on-base ability. Plus, with so many early-to-mid-20s bats filling the lineup, Smith could provide some day-to-day leadership.
Closing Thought: I love thoughtful platoons.
That's five big transactions: one trade, one extension, and three free agent splashes. I certainly don't expect the Cubs to pull off these exact moves, but I think that it's important to evaluate what exactly such an offseason would mean (and regular season trade in the case of Hammel). Provided that these moves were made, here is the approximate 2015 roster by mid-April when Baez, Bryant, and Alcantara can all be called up without attaining a full year of service time:
Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester - $24M
Jeff Samardzija - $10M
James Shields - $20M
Jake Arrieta - 1.8M (approx)
Edwin Jackson - $11M
Analysis: That rotation is superb...and it better be for $66.8M next year. Travis Wood finds himself homeless two years removed from an All-Star appearance. Wood can slot in as the long man in the bullpen or he can be traded with Kyle Hendricks assuming the role of the sixth starter. Whereas Arrieta appears to have turned a corner, Wood is staring down his fourth straight year with his xFIP in the neighborhood of 4.50. Meh.
Relief Pitchers
Hector Rondon - $0.52M (approx)
Neil Ramirez - $0.52M (approx)
Justin Grimm - $0.52M (approx)
Arodys Vizcaino - $0.53M (approx)
Pedro Strop - $1.9M (approx)
Wesley Wright - $1.8M (approx)
Brian Schlitter - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: For just $6.31M, that's one heckuva bullpen. There's some solid depth with the wave of pitching prospects ready to make noise and the likes of Zac Rosscup, Blake Parker, and James Russell lurking for jobs. We've got plenty of arms and with Rondon and Ramirez both looking incredibly sharp, the arrow is decidedly pointing up.
Catchers
Welington Castillo - $2.9M (approx)
Rafael Lopez - $0.51M (approx)
Analysis: This remains the clear weak link in the organization, although Castillo is an average starter and just $3.41M on the position group keeps the price right.
Infielders
Starlin Castro - $6M
Anthony Rizzo - $5M
Kris Bryant - $0.52M (approx)
Javier Baez - $0.52M (approx)
Luis Valbuena - $2.2M (approx)
Logan Watkins - $0.52M (approx)
Analysis: Valbuena has played his way into a valuable utility/bench role with some strong defense, tremendous walking, and now some batting average too. But this infield should go, from right to left, Rizzo, Castro/Baez, Baez/Castro, and Bryant. Wowzers. $14.76M gets the group in 2015.
Outfielders
Seth Smith - $7.5M
Justin Ruggiano - $3M (approx)
Arismendy Alcantara - $0.52M (approx)
Junior Lake - $0.53M (approx)
Ryan Sweeney - $1.5M
Analysis: I'm a believer in two things. First, I think Alcantara is bound for CF given an organizational need at the position and Baez and Castro both needing middle infield homes. Second, I think that Junior Lake is the seventh or eighth best starter on an excellent team given his composite contributions to the team. With that in mind, the Smith-Ruggiano platoon in LF provides the club with a strong bench bat and a strong #2 hitter each day. The platoon is expensive, but it provides Soler and Kyle Schwarber with the necessary development time. This group comes with a $13.05M price tag.
Given a $66.8M rotation, $6.31M bullpen, $14.76M infield, and $13.05M outfield, the total spending for 2015 would be $100.92M on the 25-man roster. That would represent a significant jump from this year's payroll where the entire 40-man roster ate up just under $77M; adding in dead money for Alfonso Soriano and Scott Hairston pushes that number to approximately $91.5M. Filling the remainder of the 2015 40-man roster with minimum salary players, the 40-man number would reach approximately $108.7M. Adding in contract buyouts for Kyuji Fujikawa and Jose Veras gets the number to just shy of $109.5M.
So there it is. The Cubs could field arguably the top rotation in baseball with Lester-Samardzija-Shields-Arrieta-Edwin and roll with the following everyday lineup:
LF Smith/Ruggiano
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
SS/2B Castro
CF Alcantara
RF Lake
C Castillo
Even if that lineup would have some ups and downs, it would nonetheless be an interesting group and an exciting one with Soler, Almora, and Schwarber all potentially pushing for jobs by 2016 or constituting excellent trade bait. If you want to have even more lineup fun, just imagine Dan Jennings saying no to an offer of Soler, Almora, Edwards, Johnson, and Dan Vogelbach for Giancarlo Stanton. The lineup would admittedly increase in expense to around $120M for the 2015 40-man roster, although the increase could largely be offset by declining to sign Seth Smith. A batting order of...
CF Alcantara
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
SS/2B Castro
LF Lake
C Castillo
...actually makes me drool. Wowzers. All of this is within reach.
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Analyzing the Chicago Cubs 2014 Draft Class (Round 1-10)
The 2014 MLB Draft is in the books and the Chicago Cubs certainly had an interesting approach. Here is my look at their top ten picks followed by a brief look at intriguing talents after the first ten rounds.
The Cubs total bonus pool for the 2014 draft for picks in rounds 1-10 and for any bonus amount over $100,000 for a pick in rounds 11-40 is $8,352,200. Given that teams may exceed their pool by 5% before incurring the painful loss of future picks, the effective pool is really $8,769,810. With that in mind, here's a look at the picks.
1B/OF/C Kyle Schwarber, Indiana University (Junior)
Draft Spot: 1.4 (#4 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 235 lbs., L/R
Date of Birth: 3/5/93 (age 21 years, 3 months)
Slot Bonus: $4,621,200
Projected Bonus: $3,200,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $1,421,200
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 65 power, 70 discipline, 50 arm, 40 glove, 30 run
Pick Analysis: Schwarber represents a different approach of the Cubs front office under the still relatively new bonus pool regime. While many of us wanted one of the top three picks to fall to the Cubs at #4, Schwarber wasn't on many radars this high up the board. The reason is simple: he's homeless defensively. He'll be given a chance to stick behind the plate and rightly so as his value is exponentially greater as a catcher even if he's below-average defensively. If he can't stay there, I've only seen him as a 1B although Cubs brass supposedly believes that he could hack it in LF.
I just don't buy that. I think they chose Schwarber because they see the MLB marketplace lacking in (1) power, and (2) big-bat 1Bs. Schwarber feels like trade bait come next July and that just feels bizarre. Provided that he signs for at least $1M below slot value - and the front office clearly believes he will based on the rest of the class - Schwarber is a fine selection in terms of fulfilling the goal of acquiring a useful prospect and, clearly more importantly to the front office, ample bonus pool space.
Schwarber seems like a good guy with plenty of bat to have a nice career. I just disagree with the strategy and thus, as the embodiment of said plan, I'm not excited about Schwarber.
RHP Jake Stinnett, University of Maryland (Senior)
Draft Spot: 2.4 (#45 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'4", 205 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 4/25/92 (age 22 years, 1 month)
Slot Bonus: $1,250,400
Projected Bonus: $1,000,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $250,400
Scouting Report: 60 two-seam fastball, 60 four-seam fastball, 40 slider, 30 changeup
Pick Analysis: Stinnett is the rare college senior selected in the first few rounds of the draft. College seniors have become the flavor of choice among teams looking to save on their bonus pools in the latter rounds of the top ten, but Stinnett doesn't fit that mold. After flopping as a third baseman, he revitalized his baseball life by moving to the mound as a closer in 2013, completing his maturation with a shift into the rotation in 2014.
He's got two strong fastballs that should enable him to tread water as he learns a secondary arsenal. His two-seamer sits in the low-90s while his four-seamer is more of a mid-90s offering, although obviously with less movement. The two-seamer is going to be his bread-and-butter pitch, although his excellent tailing movement is generated in a way that may make diving action difficult to come by. His slider is a poor pitch currently with plenty of movement but little command, and his changeup is unusable in its current form. Nonetheless, his arm should have minimal wear-and-tear on it while his frame suggests that he has an excellent chance of holding up under the strains of starting should the pitches come along.
It's hard to love such a raw prospect at #45, but he fit the mold of the organization's draft (save early, spend a bit later) and he's got plenty of upside.
C/OF Mark Zagunis, Virginia Tech University (Junior) (at 1:17 and 2:50)
Draft Spot: 3.4 (#78 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 205 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 2/5/93 (age 21 years, 4 months)
Slot Bonus: $714,900
Projected Bonus: $714,900 (*Zagunis has reportedly signed for $615,000)
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $0 (*$99,900 according to the report)
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 45 power, 60 discipline, 45 arm, 50 glove, 65 run
Pick Analysis: Zagunis is a rare breed: the speedy catcher. Despite a pre-pitch bat wiggle, his swing is very compact and fluid, something that should lead to consistent contact. His hands are plenty quick, also helping the cause. Perhaps more importantly, he had more walks than strikeouts in each of the last two seasons, enabling him to remain productive as a junior even when the power went out (just two home runs after nine as a sophomore).
Still, his value is tied entirely to his ability to catch. If Zagunis moves to the outfield, it will be exceptionally difficult for him to earn an MLB job as his bat just isn't special. However, if he shows sufficient aptitude to remain behind the dish, he could play and move quickly in a Cubs system largely bereft of genuine catching talent after Welington Castillo and possibly the recently promoted Rafael Lopez.
Much like Stinnett, it's hard to love the Zagunis pick given that there were more attractive options on the board, but at this point, the addition of catching talent is a big plus.
LHP Carson Sands, High School (FL)
Draft Spot: 4.4 (#109 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'3", 205 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 3/28/95 (age 19 years, 2 months)
Slot Bonus: $480,600
Projected Bonus: $900,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost:-$419,400
Scouting Report: 50 four-seam fastball, 60 changeup, 45 curveball
Pick Analysis: If the first three picks left Cubs fans scratching their heads, the next four left the prospect hounds salivating. Sands is a bizarre prospect, an exceptionally old high schooler from north Florida. His high-80s fastball is good enough while his mid-70s tumbling changeup is his best offering. He also throws the mid-70s curve that so many lefties employ.
Currently, it's hard to watch him throw right now as his delivery appears to be tough on his shoulder. Hopefully the development staff can get his mechanics ironed out to minimize any damage that may have already been done. Still, 6'3", 200+ lbs. lefties don't grow on trees. This is a strong pick and arguably the second best prospect drafted by the club through four rounds even though Sands needs tons of refinement.
LHP Justin Steele, High School (MS)
Draft Spot: 5.4 (#139 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 180 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 7/11/95 (age 18 years, 11 months)
Slot Bonus: $359,900
Projected Bonus: $500,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$140,100
Scouting Report: 50 fastball, 45 curveball, 35 changeup
Pick Analysis: Steele is a bit tricky as most scouting services had him as a top-100 prospect yet nobody seemed to be particularly surprised that he last into the fifth round. Much like Sands, Steele is a very old high school prospect with a useful fastball, but unlike Sands, Steele's secondary offerings lag behind. He should have enough size to stick as a starter, but it's hard to be sure.
Regardless, Steele is a solid choice here as another left-handed high school lottery ticket. He keeps himself low to the ground throughout his delivery, making himself smaller in the process. As a result, it's possible to see him developing into a LOOGY.
RHP Dylan Cease, High School (GA)
Draft Spot: 6.4 (#169 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 175 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 12/28/95 (age 18 years, 5 months)
Slot Bonus: $269,500
Projected Bonus: $875,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$605,500
Scouting Report: 70 fastball, 30 curveball
Pick Analysis: Cease is probably the most interesting pick in the entire Cubs draft class. First off, he is widely expected to undergo Tommy John surgery shortly after signing, a double-edged sword in that his elbow problems are part of what left him on the board in the sixth round and also may derail his career before it even gets started.
His has a relatively low release point that prevents him from getting much downward action on his fastball, but the pitch shows incredible late life, especially for a teenager, as it explodes through the zone. His curveball lives at the opposite end of the spectrum with Cease showing barely any feel for the offering whatsoever. Nonetheless, legitimate mid-90s exploding heat from a high schooler is worth a flyer any day. If you're going to save money for high upside plays later in the draft, Cease is the right kind of play to make.
RHP James Norwood, St. Louis University (Junior)
Draft Spot: 7.4 (#199 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 175 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 12/24/93 (age 20 years, 5 months)
Slot Bonus: $201,900
Projected Bonus: $500,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$298,100
Scouting Report: 65 fastball, 45 changeup, 45 curveball, 35 slider
Pick Analysis: Norwood might be my favorite pick in the class in terms of value and intrigue. He features a darting two-seam fastball in the lot-to-mid-90s that he locates well, giving him one plus pitch to work with. His secondary pitches are decidedly imperfect and in need of reform. Further, elbow issues during his sophomore year likely led to Norwood's lower draft position.
But he's 20 1/2 after his junior year in college. Norwood is just 15 months older than Carson Sands. It's hard not to love such an advanced arm in a relatively young pitcher. I find Norwood's mechanics to be relatively clean and repeatable. He gets good downward plane on his fastball given a solidly over-the-top delivery and he looks extremely clean throwing from the stretch. He likely has a much higher floor than most seventh-rounders, and I believe that he'll rightly get an extended look as a starter.
LHP Tommy Thorpe, University of Oregon (Junior)
Draft Spot: 8.4 (#229 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 195 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 9/20/92 (age 21 years, 9 months)
Slot Bonus: $161,800
Projected Bonus: $150,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $11,800
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 50 curveball, 40 changeup
Pick Analysis: Thorpe is the first pick about whom it is very difficult to be excited. He works only in the high-80s with very little movement on his fastball, and while his mid-70s curveball offers some hope, his high-70s changeup doesn't add enough to push him into starting territory. His delivery is extremely violent. Taken together, it's hard to see a starter and even a LOOGY without some significant growth. The most disappointing pick.
RHP James Farris, University of Arizona (Senior)
Draft Spot: 9.4 (#259 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'2", 220 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 4/4/92 (age 22 years, 2 months)
Slot Bonus: $151,000
Projected Bonus: $50,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $101,000
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 50 changeup, 35 curveball
Pick Analysis: Farris wasn't drafted to fill a short- or long-term starting need; he was drafted exclusively to serve as organizational depth. The Cubs front office certainly liked that Farris enjoyed considerable success as a collegian, pitching the clinching game of last year's College World Series. There's not much to see here. Farris isn't going to make noise or be exciting.
RHP Ryan Williams, East Carolina University (Senior)
Draft Spot: 10.4 (#289 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'4", 220 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 11/1/91 (age 22 years, 7 months)
Slot Bonus: $141,000
Projected Bonus: $5,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $136,000
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 40 slider
Pick Analysis: This is all about the bonus or lack thereof. Williams will get a chance to pitch his way into a real look, much like Zack Godley has thus far as a professional, but he was drafted for his lack of leverage.
My estimated bonuses yielded $7,894,900 in bonuses for picks from Rounds 1-10. Such bonuses would leave the club with $874,910 of wiggle room to allocate to the over-$100,000 bonus portion for any picks in Rounds 11-40; if we assume that the other bonuses are correct and Zagunis received $100,000 less than expected, this number pushes up to $974,910. The Cubs seem most likely to use some of that space to go after Fresno State righty Jordan Brink (11th round), high school third baseman Kevonte Mitchell (13th), and, in particular, high school switch-hitting outfielder Isiah Gilliam (23rd).
Overall, I'm excited about the pitchers the Cubs nabbed in Rounds 4-7 and Stinnett is intriguing. Zagunis is interesting enough, but he absolutely must stick at catcher. Unfortunately, as the crown jewel of the class, Schwarber just doesn't do it for me. Hopefully he proves far better than expected and he can become a core piece of the future. Until then, the jury is out.
The Cubs total bonus pool for the 2014 draft for picks in rounds 1-10 and for any bonus amount over $100,000 for a pick in rounds 11-40 is $8,352,200. Given that teams may exceed their pool by 5% before incurring the painful loss of future picks, the effective pool is really $8,769,810. With that in mind, here's a look at the picks.
1B/OF/C Kyle Schwarber, Indiana University (Junior)
Draft Spot: 1.4 (#4 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 235 lbs., L/R
Date of Birth: 3/5/93 (age 21 years, 3 months)
Slot Bonus: $4,621,200
Projected Bonus: $3,200,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $1,421,200
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 65 power, 70 discipline, 50 arm, 40 glove, 30 run
Pick Analysis: Schwarber represents a different approach of the Cubs front office under the still relatively new bonus pool regime. While many of us wanted one of the top three picks to fall to the Cubs at #4, Schwarber wasn't on many radars this high up the board. The reason is simple: he's homeless defensively. He'll be given a chance to stick behind the plate and rightly so as his value is exponentially greater as a catcher even if he's below-average defensively. If he can't stay there, I've only seen him as a 1B although Cubs brass supposedly believes that he could hack it in LF.
I just don't buy that. I think they chose Schwarber because they see the MLB marketplace lacking in (1) power, and (2) big-bat 1Bs. Schwarber feels like trade bait come next July and that just feels bizarre. Provided that he signs for at least $1M below slot value - and the front office clearly believes he will based on the rest of the class - Schwarber is a fine selection in terms of fulfilling the goal of acquiring a useful prospect and, clearly more importantly to the front office, ample bonus pool space.
Schwarber seems like a good guy with plenty of bat to have a nice career. I just disagree with the strategy and thus, as the embodiment of said plan, I'm not excited about Schwarber.
RHP Jake Stinnett, University of Maryland (Senior)
Draft Spot: 2.4 (#45 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'4", 205 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 4/25/92 (age 22 years, 1 month)
Slot Bonus: $1,250,400
Projected Bonus: $1,000,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $250,400
Scouting Report: 60 two-seam fastball, 60 four-seam fastball, 40 slider, 30 changeup
Pick Analysis: Stinnett is the rare college senior selected in the first few rounds of the draft. College seniors have become the flavor of choice among teams looking to save on their bonus pools in the latter rounds of the top ten, but Stinnett doesn't fit that mold. After flopping as a third baseman, he revitalized his baseball life by moving to the mound as a closer in 2013, completing his maturation with a shift into the rotation in 2014.
He's got two strong fastballs that should enable him to tread water as he learns a secondary arsenal. His two-seamer sits in the low-90s while his four-seamer is more of a mid-90s offering, although obviously with less movement. The two-seamer is going to be his bread-and-butter pitch, although his excellent tailing movement is generated in a way that may make diving action difficult to come by. His slider is a poor pitch currently with plenty of movement but little command, and his changeup is unusable in its current form. Nonetheless, his arm should have minimal wear-and-tear on it while his frame suggests that he has an excellent chance of holding up under the strains of starting should the pitches come along.
It's hard to love such a raw prospect at #45, but he fit the mold of the organization's draft (save early, spend a bit later) and he's got plenty of upside.
C/OF Mark Zagunis, Virginia Tech University (Junior) (at 1:17 and 2:50)
Draft Spot: 3.4 (#78 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 205 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 2/5/93 (age 21 years, 4 months)
Slot Bonus: $714,900
Projected Bonus: $714,900 (*Zagunis has reportedly signed for $615,000)
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $0 (*$99,900 according to the report)
Scouting Report: 55 hit, 45 power, 60 discipline, 45 arm, 50 glove, 65 run
Pick Analysis: Zagunis is a rare breed: the speedy catcher. Despite a pre-pitch bat wiggle, his swing is very compact and fluid, something that should lead to consistent contact. His hands are plenty quick, also helping the cause. Perhaps more importantly, he had more walks than strikeouts in each of the last two seasons, enabling him to remain productive as a junior even when the power went out (just two home runs after nine as a sophomore).
Still, his value is tied entirely to his ability to catch. If Zagunis moves to the outfield, it will be exceptionally difficult for him to earn an MLB job as his bat just isn't special. However, if he shows sufficient aptitude to remain behind the dish, he could play and move quickly in a Cubs system largely bereft of genuine catching talent after Welington Castillo and possibly the recently promoted Rafael Lopez.
Much like Stinnett, it's hard to love the Zagunis pick given that there were more attractive options on the board, but at this point, the addition of catching talent is a big plus.
LHP Carson Sands, High School (FL)
Draft Spot: 4.4 (#109 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'3", 205 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 3/28/95 (age 19 years, 2 months)
Slot Bonus: $480,600
Projected Bonus: $900,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost:-$419,400
Scouting Report: 50 four-seam fastball, 60 changeup, 45 curveball
Pick Analysis: If the first three picks left Cubs fans scratching their heads, the next four left the prospect hounds salivating. Sands is a bizarre prospect, an exceptionally old high schooler from north Florida. His high-80s fastball is good enough while his mid-70s tumbling changeup is his best offering. He also throws the mid-70s curve that so many lefties employ.
Currently, it's hard to watch him throw right now as his delivery appears to be tough on his shoulder. Hopefully the development staff can get his mechanics ironed out to minimize any damage that may have already been done. Still, 6'3", 200+ lbs. lefties don't grow on trees. This is a strong pick and arguably the second best prospect drafted by the club through four rounds even though Sands needs tons of refinement.
LHP Justin Steele, High School (MS)
Draft Spot: 5.4 (#139 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 180 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 7/11/95 (age 18 years, 11 months)
Slot Bonus: $359,900
Projected Bonus: $500,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$140,100
Scouting Report: 50 fastball, 45 curveball, 35 changeup
Pick Analysis: Steele is a bit tricky as most scouting services had him as a top-100 prospect yet nobody seemed to be particularly surprised that he last into the fifth round. Much like Sands, Steele is a very old high school prospect with a useful fastball, but unlike Sands, Steele's secondary offerings lag behind. He should have enough size to stick as a starter, but it's hard to be sure.
Regardless, Steele is a solid choice here as another left-handed high school lottery ticket. He keeps himself low to the ground throughout his delivery, making himself smaller in the process. As a result, it's possible to see him developing into a LOOGY.
RHP Dylan Cease, High School (GA)
Draft Spot: 6.4 (#169 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 175 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 12/28/95 (age 18 years, 5 months)
Slot Bonus: $269,500
Projected Bonus: $875,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$605,500
Scouting Report: 70 fastball, 30 curveball
Pick Analysis: Cease is probably the most interesting pick in the entire Cubs draft class. First off, he is widely expected to undergo Tommy John surgery shortly after signing, a double-edged sword in that his elbow problems are part of what left him on the board in the sixth round and also may derail his career before it even gets started.
His has a relatively low release point that prevents him from getting much downward action on his fastball, but the pitch shows incredible late life, especially for a teenager, as it explodes through the zone. His curveball lives at the opposite end of the spectrum with Cease showing barely any feel for the offering whatsoever. Nonetheless, legitimate mid-90s exploding heat from a high schooler is worth a flyer any day. If you're going to save money for high upside plays later in the draft, Cease is the right kind of play to make.
RHP James Norwood, St. Louis University (Junior)
Draft Spot: 7.4 (#199 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'1", 175 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 12/24/93 (age 20 years, 5 months)
Slot Bonus: $201,900
Projected Bonus: $500,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: -$298,100
Scouting Report: 65 fastball, 45 changeup, 45 curveball, 35 slider
Pick Analysis: Norwood might be my favorite pick in the class in terms of value and intrigue. He features a darting two-seam fastball in the lot-to-mid-90s that he locates well, giving him one plus pitch to work with. His secondary pitches are decidedly imperfect and in need of reform. Further, elbow issues during his sophomore year likely led to Norwood's lower draft position.
But he's 20 1/2 after his junior year in college. Norwood is just 15 months older than Carson Sands. It's hard not to love such an advanced arm in a relatively young pitcher. I find Norwood's mechanics to be relatively clean and repeatable. He gets good downward plane on his fastball given a solidly over-the-top delivery and he looks extremely clean throwing from the stretch. He likely has a much higher floor than most seventh-rounders, and I believe that he'll rightly get an extended look as a starter.
LHP Tommy Thorpe, University of Oregon (Junior)
Draft Spot: 8.4 (#229 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'0", 195 lbs., L/L
Date of Birth: 9/20/92 (age 21 years, 9 months)
Slot Bonus: $161,800
Projected Bonus: $150,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $11,800
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 50 curveball, 40 changeup
Pick Analysis: Thorpe is the first pick about whom it is very difficult to be excited. He works only in the high-80s with very little movement on his fastball, and while his mid-70s curveball offers some hope, his high-70s changeup doesn't add enough to push him into starting territory. His delivery is extremely violent. Taken together, it's hard to see a starter and even a LOOGY without some significant growth. The most disappointing pick.
RHP James Farris, University of Arizona (Senior)
Draft Spot: 9.4 (#259 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'2", 220 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 4/4/92 (age 22 years, 2 months)
Slot Bonus: $151,000
Projected Bonus: $50,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $101,000
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 50 changeup, 35 curveball
Pick Analysis: Farris wasn't drafted to fill a short- or long-term starting need; he was drafted exclusively to serve as organizational depth. The Cubs front office certainly liked that Farris enjoyed considerable success as a collegian, pitching the clinching game of last year's College World Series. There's not much to see here. Farris isn't going to make noise or be exciting.
RHP Ryan Williams, East Carolina University (Senior)
Draft Spot: 10.4 (#289 overall)
Height, Weight, Bat/Throw: 6'4", 220 lbs., R/R
Date of Birth: 11/1/91 (age 22 years, 7 months)
Slot Bonus: $141,000
Projected Bonus: $5,000
Bonus Pool Savings/Excess Cost: $136,000
Scouting Report: 40 fastball, 40 slider
Pick Analysis: This is all about the bonus or lack thereof. Williams will get a chance to pitch his way into a real look, much like Zack Godley has thus far as a professional, but he was drafted for his lack of leverage.
My estimated bonuses yielded $7,894,900 in bonuses for picks from Rounds 1-10. Such bonuses would leave the club with $874,910 of wiggle room to allocate to the over-$100,000 bonus portion for any picks in Rounds 11-40; if we assume that the other bonuses are correct and Zagunis received $100,000 less than expected, this number pushes up to $974,910. The Cubs seem most likely to use some of that space to go after Fresno State righty Jordan Brink (11th round), high school third baseman Kevonte Mitchell (13th), and, in particular, high school switch-hitting outfielder Isiah Gilliam (23rd).
Overall, I'm excited about the pitchers the Cubs nabbed in Rounds 4-7 and Stinnett is intriguing. Zagunis is interesting enough, but he absolutely must stick at catcher. Unfortunately, as the crown jewel of the class, Schwarber just doesn't do it for me. Hopefully he proves far better than expected and he can become a core piece of the future. Until then, the jury is out.
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
A Plea to Draft the Best Player Available
*Note: I initially wrote this two weeks ago and thought that I had published it then. Whoops. See the post below to find my day-before-the-draft thoughts.
I can't believe I'm actually writing this. But a wave has swept through Cubs fan sites proposing what would otherwise be an efficient approach to the draft if it wasn't so crazy. The rationale goes something like this:
Seeing as this is a three pitcher draft, the Cubs need a pitcher, and the Cubs pick fourth, the Cubs should cut a massively underslot deal with a player at #4 in order to save money and grab a falling prospect in Rounds 2 or 3. Given the new draft bonus pools and the harsh penalties for exceeding them by 5% or more, the Cubs would be able to add two strong prospects instead of just one.
I admit that this approach can work beautifully, but it requires a convergence of factors in order to pull it off. Specifically, the team has to be staring down two or more players of similar or equal value with at least one of them willing to go underslot. This worked out perfectly for the Astros in 2012 when they chose role 7 SS Carlos Correa and $2.4M savings over role 7 SP Mark Appel. They used the extra funds to sign a pair of prospects away from strong college commitments in compensation round draftee Lance McCullers ($2.5M bonus v. $1.26M slot) and fourth rounder Rio Ruiz ($1.85M bonus v. $360,200 slot).
McCullers is progressing up the prospect ladder, although he is hardly dominating the competition and may very well find himself in the bullpen. Ruiz is producing moderately well at A+, but the third baseman may find himself heading across the diamond to first base where his bat may not play.
Regardless, the results of McCullers and Ruiz are not the point. The point is this: it requires an incredible confluence of factors to justify going so wildly underslot at the top of the draft, and even if it makes sense, using the extra funds later on may or may not pay any dividends.
Here are the two reasons this just doesn't make sense for the Cubs in 2014:
Reason #1: Drafting at #4, the Cost Savings Just Aren't That Significant
When the Astros drafted top-five talent Correa, they saved $2.4M a whopping $2.4M. In order for the Cubs to save $2.4M on their top pick, they'd have to sign a player for $2.2M, substantially under their $4,621,200 slot. They could certainly seek to save less by drafting a better player, but obviously that means they would have less buying power for their subsequent picks.
In this year's draft, the drop off from #1 ($7,922,100) to #3 ($5,721,500) is $2.2M. Thus, if Brady Aiken believes that the Marlins will not draft him at #2 and he will thus drop to #3, he has a strong incentive to agree to an underslot deal with Houston that may even be $2M under slot.
Conversely, if the Cubs seek to find $2M of savings, they'd have to find a player who does not expect to be drafted until #14 ($2,613,200 slot) at the earliest. Otherwise, that player would be incentivized to wait and see if he is selected from picks 5-14.
There is plenty of value in going underslot at #1 in a draft with lots of great players but no clear-cut star; such value is exponentially lower at #4, especially in what I view as a four-player draft, which brings me to point #2...
Reason #2: There Is a Substantial Talent Dropoff After the Top Four Players in This Draft
To me, the top of this draft is relatively straightforward. Brady Aiken looks like an ace in a durable lefty package with top flight stuff. Carlos Rodon looks like a lesser version of Aiken, but still with a great fastball and an incredible slider/cutter. Tyler Kolek is 6'5", 245 lbs. and throws 102; if your minor league coaches can't work with that package, they should quit. And Alex Jackson is a masher, a potential .280+ hitter with 20+ homers with the ability and body for even more. If he's truly a catcher, Jackson is a 1.1 candidate; if he's a corner outfielder, he's still a top-four player.
Now how hard was that?
Some folks are making noise about Nick Gordon, Aaron Nola, and even Max Pentecost. Just stop it. Those four names listed above are the four that look like potential role 7 players while everyone else is in the 5-6 range. Those a good players, but the grade jumps are there for a reason and the jump from 6 to 7 is rarely made. Gordon has no very limited power projection and I'm not a big fan of his swing; he looks like Billy Hamilton with a bit less speed, a better stroke overall, and shortstop defense. That's a good player to be sure, but no power and a decent swing at #4? I don't see how Nola is going to work as a pro with that arm slot. And Pentecost is a Wely Castillo type, a nice player who can play an every day role on a contender but who must do so from the 7th or 8th spot in the lineup. Again, at #4? Really?
Going underslot makes sense when there's a similar or equal player to be had for less money. Of course you should maximize your value in that instance. But the beauty of picking at the top of the draft is that you should get a star-level prospect. Don't punt on the star-level piece just to get two good-level prospects. It's not worth it. Plus, if the front office really trusts the scouting and development process, the scouts should be able to find another excellent pick in the second and third rounds with the minor league staff developing that talent too.
When it comes to punting on the chance to grab a top-tier prospect in favor of spreading the risk, just say no.
I can't believe I'm actually writing this. But a wave has swept through Cubs fan sites proposing what would otherwise be an efficient approach to the draft if it wasn't so crazy. The rationale goes something like this:
Seeing as this is a three pitcher draft, the Cubs need a pitcher, and the Cubs pick fourth, the Cubs should cut a massively underslot deal with a player at #4 in order to save money and grab a falling prospect in Rounds 2 or 3. Given the new draft bonus pools and the harsh penalties for exceeding them by 5% or more, the Cubs would be able to add two strong prospects instead of just one.
I admit that this approach can work beautifully, but it requires a convergence of factors in order to pull it off. Specifically, the team has to be staring down two or more players of similar or equal value with at least one of them willing to go underslot. This worked out perfectly for the Astros in 2012 when they chose role 7 SS Carlos Correa and $2.4M savings over role 7 SP Mark Appel. They used the extra funds to sign a pair of prospects away from strong college commitments in compensation round draftee Lance McCullers ($2.5M bonus v. $1.26M slot) and fourth rounder Rio Ruiz ($1.85M bonus v. $360,200 slot).
McCullers is progressing up the prospect ladder, although he is hardly dominating the competition and may very well find himself in the bullpen. Ruiz is producing moderately well at A+, but the third baseman may find himself heading across the diamond to first base where his bat may not play.
Regardless, the results of McCullers and Ruiz are not the point. The point is this: it requires an incredible confluence of factors to justify going so wildly underslot at the top of the draft, and even if it makes sense, using the extra funds later on may or may not pay any dividends.
Here are the two reasons this just doesn't make sense for the Cubs in 2014:
Reason #1: Drafting at #4, the Cost Savings Just Aren't That Significant
When the Astros drafted top-five talent Correa, they saved $2.4M a whopping $2.4M. In order for the Cubs to save $2.4M on their top pick, they'd have to sign a player for $2.2M, substantially under their $4,621,200 slot. They could certainly seek to save less by drafting a better player, but obviously that means they would have less buying power for their subsequent picks.
In this year's draft, the drop off from #1 ($7,922,100) to #3 ($5,721,500) is $2.2M. Thus, if Brady Aiken believes that the Marlins will not draft him at #2 and he will thus drop to #3, he has a strong incentive to agree to an underslot deal with Houston that may even be $2M under slot.
Conversely, if the Cubs seek to find $2M of savings, they'd have to find a player who does not expect to be drafted until #14 ($2,613,200 slot) at the earliest. Otherwise, that player would be incentivized to wait and see if he is selected from picks 5-14.
There is plenty of value in going underslot at #1 in a draft with lots of great players but no clear-cut star; such value is exponentially lower at #4, especially in what I view as a four-player draft, which brings me to point #2...
Reason #2: There Is a Substantial Talent Dropoff After the Top Four Players in This Draft
To me, the top of this draft is relatively straightforward. Brady Aiken looks like an ace in a durable lefty package with top flight stuff. Carlos Rodon looks like a lesser version of Aiken, but still with a great fastball and an incredible slider/cutter. Tyler Kolek is 6'5", 245 lbs. and throws 102; if your minor league coaches can't work with that package, they should quit. And Alex Jackson is a masher, a potential .280+ hitter with 20+ homers with the ability and body for even more. If he's truly a catcher, Jackson is a 1.1 candidate; if he's a corner outfielder, he's still a top-four player.
Now how hard was that?
Some folks are making noise about Nick Gordon, Aaron Nola, and even Max Pentecost. Just stop it. Those four names listed above are the four that look like potential role 7 players while everyone else is in the 5-6 range. Those a good players, but the grade jumps are there for a reason and the jump from 6 to 7 is rarely made. Gordon has no very limited power projection and I'm not a big fan of his swing; he looks like Billy Hamilton with a bit less speed, a better stroke overall, and shortstop defense. That's a good player to be sure, but no power and a decent swing at #4? I don't see how Nola is going to work as a pro with that arm slot. And Pentecost is a Wely Castillo type, a nice player who can play an every day role on a contender but who must do so from the 7th or 8th spot in the lineup. Again, at #4? Really?
Going underslot makes sense when there's a similar or equal player to be had for less money. Of course you should maximize your value in that instance. But the beauty of picking at the top of the draft is that you should get a star-level prospect. Don't punt on the star-level piece just to get two good-level prospects. It's not worth it. Plus, if the front office really trusts the scouting and development process, the scouts should be able to find another excellent pick in the second and third rounds with the minor league staff developing that talent too.
When it comes to punting on the chance to grab a top-tier prospect in favor of spreading the risk, just say no.
A Final Quick Hope for the Cubs' Draft
Last month, I outlined my case for the four candidates I'd like for the Cubs to consider at 1.4 in tomorrow's draft. You can read the full post above or this simple recap:
1. Brady Aiken is the class of this class;
2. Carlos Rodon's slider alone makes him a 1.1 candidate and a low-to-mid-90s fastball is excellent too; he gets dinged a bit for pitching in college (where coaches want to ride his arm) instead of the pros for the last three years, but he's still an ace/#2 caliber pitcher;
3. Tyler Kolek throws 102 with a massive body; there are problems to work on but if you can't make that skill set into a big-time starter, there's no hope for your franchise; and
4. Alex Jackson has the power and hit tool to justify a top-five pick and plenty of athleticism to make that play in RF/LF; if he stays a C, he's a 1.1 candidate.
For as difficult as the MLB draft may be, it's really very simple: find good players, draft them, develop them, and reap the benefits.
If the Cubs call another name, I'm going to think that they made a poor choice. If it's Nick Gordon, they overvalued his athleticism and forgot to appreciate the need to get a big bat in the top five. If it's Max Pentecost, they goofily decided to load up on a player who falls to the second round for signability reasons. Diversifying risk is a good idea; punting on a top-five talent to take advantage of a faller later in the draft is a poor idea. It just is.
Part of the problem with the underslot approach is that this method makes significantly more sense for teams with lots of highish picks. The Cubs are not such a team. By the time the fourth round shows up on Friday afternoon, the Cubs will have made three picks while every other divisional foe will have made at least four; the Cardinals and Pirates will both have made five selections apiece. With so many picks, those teams can far better absorb the risk of saving for a draft-day slider knowing that they will add plenty of talent nonetheless.
On the contrary, if the Cubs select Pentecost and sign him for $2M under slot, they would absolutely require a later pick to agree to a deal for approximately $2M over slot, a player that has been passed on at least 44 times in favor of other, mostly superior prospects. If they can't find a taker for their later cash, drafting Pentecost is a total waste. Don't do it.
And don't draft Michael Conforto at 1.4. Conforto looks like a guy with a nice bat and a good approach. He's the right kind of bat to have in the middle of a lineup for a few years with more power and less batting average. But he's a poor outfield defender without much/any projection out there, portending a move to 1B or dreadful defensive value if he stays in the outfield with his weak arm. He doesn't run well either. Drafting Conforto at 1.4 is like drafting Tim Jennings with a top five pick in the NFL draft: you'd be getting a useful, starting-caliber player, but you can do significantly better in the top five.
So, all that to say this: please oh please draft one of those top four players. Grab a future rotation piece or middle-of-the-order bat.
In 2008, the Rays decided to save money at the top of the draft and selected SS Tim Beckham over the more highly rated C Buster Posey. In 2007, the Royals (3B Mike Moustakas), Cubs (3B Josh Vitters), and Pirates (LHP Daniel Moskos) all decided to avoid a massive payout in passing on the draft's second best player, C Matt Wieters. Wieters signed the largest bonus of any player in the draft, even larger than #1 overall pick LHP David Price, but the teams that passed on him categorically regret the terrible decision.
Not to pick on the Rays, but 2005 represented arguably the worst violation of the "Best Player Available" rule; it's difficult not to wonder what might have been. The Rays went substantially under slot with injured righty Wade Townsend at #8 for just $1.5M; the next 12 picks all received larger bonuses. The next four players chosen? RHP Mike Pelfrey, OF Cameron Maybin, OF Andrew McCutchen, and OF Jay Bruce. Pelfrey (9.6), Maybin (8.7), McCutchen (29.0), and Bruce (16.1) have combined to produce 63.4 WAR since 2005 with Maybin, Bruce, and McCutchen all in their primes as strong contributors. Townsend never made it past AA. But at least the Rays saved a couple hundred grand.
Don't get cute by going under slot. Not unless the Cubs really need something else to regret for decades. In my relatively short lifetime, Greg Maddux the Brave and the 8th inning of Game 6 are plenty for me.
1. Brady Aiken is the class of this class;
2. Carlos Rodon's slider alone makes him a 1.1 candidate and a low-to-mid-90s fastball is excellent too; he gets dinged a bit for pitching in college (where coaches want to ride his arm) instead of the pros for the last three years, but he's still an ace/#2 caliber pitcher;
3. Tyler Kolek throws 102 with a massive body; there are problems to work on but if you can't make that skill set into a big-time starter, there's no hope for your franchise; and
4. Alex Jackson has the power and hit tool to justify a top-five pick and plenty of athleticism to make that play in RF/LF; if he stays a C, he's a 1.1 candidate.
For as difficult as the MLB draft may be, it's really very simple: find good players, draft them, develop them, and reap the benefits.
If the Cubs call another name, I'm going to think that they made a poor choice. If it's Nick Gordon, they overvalued his athleticism and forgot to appreciate the need to get a big bat in the top five. If it's Max Pentecost, they goofily decided to load up on a player who falls to the second round for signability reasons. Diversifying risk is a good idea; punting on a top-five talent to take advantage of a faller later in the draft is a poor idea. It just is.
Part of the problem with the underslot approach is that this method makes significantly more sense for teams with lots of highish picks. The Cubs are not such a team. By the time the fourth round shows up on Friday afternoon, the Cubs will have made three picks while every other divisional foe will have made at least four; the Cardinals and Pirates will both have made five selections apiece. With so many picks, those teams can far better absorb the risk of saving for a draft-day slider knowing that they will add plenty of talent nonetheless.
On the contrary, if the Cubs select Pentecost and sign him for $2M under slot, they would absolutely require a later pick to agree to a deal for approximately $2M over slot, a player that has been passed on at least 44 times in favor of other, mostly superior prospects. If they can't find a taker for their later cash, drafting Pentecost is a total waste. Don't do it.
And don't draft Michael Conforto at 1.4. Conforto looks like a guy with a nice bat and a good approach. He's the right kind of bat to have in the middle of a lineup for a few years with more power and less batting average. But he's a poor outfield defender without much/any projection out there, portending a move to 1B or dreadful defensive value if he stays in the outfield with his weak arm. He doesn't run well either. Drafting Conforto at 1.4 is like drafting Tim Jennings with a top five pick in the NFL draft: you'd be getting a useful, starting-caliber player, but you can do significantly better in the top five.
So, all that to say this: please oh please draft one of those top four players. Grab a future rotation piece or middle-of-the-order bat.
In 2008, the Rays decided to save money at the top of the draft and selected SS Tim Beckham over the more highly rated C Buster Posey. In 2007, the Royals (3B Mike Moustakas), Cubs (3B Josh Vitters), and Pirates (LHP Daniel Moskos) all decided to avoid a massive payout in passing on the draft's second best player, C Matt Wieters. Wieters signed the largest bonus of any player in the draft, even larger than #1 overall pick LHP David Price, but the teams that passed on him categorically regret the terrible decision.
Not to pick on the Rays, but 2005 represented arguably the worst violation of the "Best Player Available" rule; it's difficult not to wonder what might have been. The Rays went substantially under slot with injured righty Wade Townsend at #8 for just $1.5M; the next 12 picks all received larger bonuses. The next four players chosen? RHP Mike Pelfrey, OF Cameron Maybin, OF Andrew McCutchen, and OF Jay Bruce. Pelfrey (9.6), Maybin (8.7), McCutchen (29.0), and Bruce (16.1) have combined to produce 63.4 WAR since 2005 with Maybin, Bruce, and McCutchen all in their primes as strong contributors. Townsend never made it past AA. But at least the Rays saved a couple hundred grand.
Don't get cute by going under slot. Not unless the Cubs really need something else to regret for decades. In my relatively short lifetime, Greg Maddux the Brave and the 8th inning of Game 6 are plenty for me.
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