2015 MLB Predictions

My picks for the Cubs roster this year are forthcoming as soon as I can get the formatting to work. In the meantime, here's my off-hand picks for the 2015 MLB season:

AL West
Oakland (88-74): They win because that's just what they do; no reason to keep picking against them.
Anaheim (86-76): These guys are old.
Seattle (85-77): I like this team fine. I just don't love them. I don't believe the hype.
Houston (74-88): The future is coming, though I question the ceiling
Texas (65-97): So many injuries already (again)

AL Central
Cleveland (92-70): I love the pitching and see plenty of positional talent.
Detroit (83-79): About to fall off a very expensive cliff.
Kansas City (81-81): Mediocre encore.
Chicago Sox (78-84): Plenty of good additions but the roster was awful beforehand.
Minnesota (77-85): There's more talent than before; lots of decent pitching.

AL East
Boston (92-70): They're going to hit enough to win plenty of games. Pitching will be interesting.
Toronto (90-72): I'm presuming that, at some point, they'll actually address second base.
Baltimore (82-80): Meh.
New York Yankees (80-82): Loud meh.
Tampa Bay (68-94): They're going to sell hard and it's going to get ugly.

NL West
Los Angeles (100-62): Really, really good with absurd ceilings and absurd depth.
San Francisco (84-78): Good, not great. Bumgarner can't pitch every inning.
San Diego (82-80): Despite the noisy offseason, this team still isn't that good?
Colorado (70-92): Might Tulo finally move on?
Arizona (56-106): They suck oh so badly.

NL Central
St. Louis (94-68): Just because.
Chicago Cubs (86-76): The pieces are there, but the timing might just be a bit off. Then again...
Pittsburgh (83-79): Yet another good, not great, team.
Milwaukee (76-86): I don't see a scenario where they contend, but there's real talent here.
Cincinnati (69-93): There's a massive firesale coming.

NL East
Miami (96-66): They're loaded everywhere except shortstop and have plenty of trade chips.
Washington (95-67): Also loaded everywhere, especially on the mound.
New York Mets (82-80): Killer pitching contrasted with devastating spots all over the diamond.
Atlanta (69-93): A bad team with some really excellent parts. Strange roster.
Philadelphia (66-96): Keep clawing for that 66th win, Ruben!

Wild Card Playoffs
Toronto over Anaheim
Washington over Chicago Cubs

Divisional Playoffs
Toronto over Cleveland
Boston over Oakland
Washington over Los Angeles
Miami over St. Louis

League Championship Series
Toronto over Boston
Miami over Washington

World Series
Miami over Toronto

Please excuse me while I vomit thinking about a third World Series for the Marlins.

MVP
OF Mike Trout
OF Giancarlo Stanton

Cy Young
SP David Price
SP Stephen Strasburg

Rookie of the Year
SP Andrew Heaney
3B/OF Kris Bryant

Nothing terribly surprising here. My long-term love affairs with Heaney and Bryant continue, and Heaney's league switch enables them both to take home some hardware.

It Seems Like the Bears Have More Spending to Do

It's no secret that Ryan Pace inherited a middling roster in transition. One of the unfortunate parting gifts from former general manager Phil Emery was a messy salary cap sheet for what is an admittedly mediocre roster. The Bears aren't in a disastrous situation like the Saints, yet they're just as far from having the cap space of the Jaguars.

Pace has ventured into the free agent marketplace to shore up a few massive holes, adding edge rusher Pernell McPhee, wide receiver Eddie Royal, and safety Antrel Rolle on a trio of eminently reasonable deals. Yet the roster still has holes and a handful of impact free agents remain unemployed. Might Pace have more shopping to do? If he wants to buy some more talent, what kind of resources does he have available to him?

I've got my own spreadsheet on which I track all of the cash outlays by player in addition to their cap hits, dead money, and potential cap savings. There aren't any genuinely significant opportunities for cap savings outside of $7.8M for Matt Forte. Needless to say, cutting Forte would be unwise.

Here is how the roster breaks down by position group in terms of cap allocations for 2015 with a reminder that only the top 51 cap numbers in a given year count against the cap:

Quarterbacks (3): $18,135,000 (Cutler, Clausen, Fales)
Running Backs (3): $9,930,845 (Forte, Carey, Perry)
Fullback (1): $510,000 (minimum placeholder)
Wide Receivers (5): $8,713,823 (Jeffery, Royal, Wilson, Mariani, Ross)
Tight Ends (3): $7,295,000 (Bennett, Miller, Annen)
Offensive Tackles (3): $9,197,828 (Bushrod, Mills, Leno)
Center (1): $1,450,000 (Garza)
Guards (4): $6,553,062 (Slauson, Long, Ola, Groy)
Edge Defenders (7): $33,156,876 (Allen, Houston, McPhee, Young, McClellin, Washington, Bass)
Defensive Linemen (5): $4,296,573 (Ratliff, Ferguson, Lane, Sutton, Dunn)
Linebackers (4): $2,790,119 (Bostic, Lattimore, Greene, Jones)
Cornerbacks (5): $9,071,591 (Jennings, Fuller, Hurst, Mitchell, Louis-Jean)
Safeties (4): $7,852,845 (Rolle, Mundy, Vereen, Walters)
Specialists (3): $4,646,327 (Gould, O'Donnell, minimum placeholder long snapper)

Those 51 contracts count for just $124,164,652 against the cap. However, the Bears owe $5,625,000 against the cap for Brandon Marshall's accelerated future bonus hits by virtue of his trade to the New York Jets, and they owe an additional $105,155 for other small signing bonuses for released players. When we add in the cap holds for the team's six draft picks, we get to a total of $135,628,707 across the 51 contracts above, dead money, and the draftees. However, simply adding the draftees' cap figures in without replacing a minimum-salary earner is inaccurate. As such, after subtracting the minimum salaries that are less than a particular draftee's cap figure, the cap space should be adjusted upward an additional $2,744,801. Given an adjusted cap for the club of $145,168,434, the Bears figure to have approximately $12,284,528 of cap space for 2015.

Given the number of holes on the team, the following free agents all make some amount of sense as Pace targets the remaining free agents:

RB C.J. Spiller
WR Michael Crabtree
OT Joe Barksdale
C   Stefen Wisniewski
EDGE Brian Orakpo
EDGE Derrick Morgan
EDGE Greg Hardy (domestic violence concerns)
DL Nick Fairley
DL B.J. Raji
LB Rolando McClain
LG Mason Foster
CB Chris Culliver
CB Rashean Mathis

Obviously the Bears will look to fill holes with draft picks as well, but to me, the most pressing needs for the club as constructed are at nose tackle, inside linebacker, offensive tackle, center, cornerback, and safety. Given the available talent and the positions of need, I'd like to see the club consider, in order, Wisniewski (Nittany bias), McClain, Culliver, Orakpo, Barksdale, and Orakpo. Orakpo may not fit the bill; I just recall early-career Orakpo as an edge force. I'd love to see the Bears take a shot on Crabtree, particularly if the former top pick is willing to settle for a one year "prove it" deal.

The basic point here is obvious: Ryan Pace has plenty of cap space in which to squeeze a couple of starting caliber players. Here's hoping he makes good choices with his spending.

2015 Chicago Bears Roster Breakdown

With the bombshell trade of WR Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets in exchange for a fifth-round draft choice, new Bears General Manager Ryan Pace has begun the heavy-lifting of rebuilding former coach Marc Trestman's extremely disappointing roster. With new head coach John Fox on board and with new coordinators – offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio – the roster figures to turn over in a significant way over the coming week. With the dominoes already starting to fall, let's take a look at the current roster, projecting players who are locks, those who are more likely than not to stick around, and those who are more likely than not to leave. Each player's 2015 salary cap charge is included in parentheses while "Need" ratings cover the spectrum of none-low-medium-high-extreme.

Quarterbacks (2)

Locks: N/A
Likely to Stay: Jay Cutler ($16.500M), Jimmy Clausen (unknown)
Likely to Go: David Fales ($0.510M)
Need: Medium

Analysis: Trading Brandon Marshall was like lighting a sparkler in your front yard on July 4^th; trading/cutting Jay Cutler would be like a full-fledged Disney World fireworks extravaganza. I'll be stunned if it happens, even though most regimes like to start over at the quarterback spot. It's hard to see ownership eating so much cash and cap space for Cutler to play somewhere else. Clausen and Fales are backup types who might fight each other for a job.

Running Backs (3)

Locks: Matt Forte ($9.200M), Ka'Deem Carey ($0.621M)
Likely to Stay: Senorise Perry ($0.510M)
Likely to Go: N/A
Need: Low

Analysis: It's unclear how exactly Gase's arrival will impact Forte's role with the club, but it's clear that Forte can thrive in basically any offensive system. Carey was a mild disappointment in his rookie campaign, but he figures to get another shot at earning his keep. Perry has the inside track to a job primarily due to special teams familiarity and the roster being light on backs.

Wide Receivers (6)

Locks: Alshon Jeffery ($1.447M), Marquess Wilson ($0.597M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: Josh Bellamy ($0.660M), Marc Mariani ($0.660M), John Chiles ($0.435M), Rashad Lawrence ($0.435M)
Need: Extreme

Analysis: Alshon has established himself as a legitimate ace receiver and Wilson has shown some flashes in his brief career thus far. Nevertheless, this is an extremely high priority for the club this offseason. Pace must add at least one genuine target through free agency with at least one more likely coming in the draft.

The last four names are all roster fodder.

Free agent targets could include Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, Harry Douglas, Brian Hartline, or Cecil Shorts, depending on how aggressively the club pursues a starting-caliber option.

Tight Ends (4)

Locks: N/A
Likely to Stay: Martellus Bennett ($6.125M), Zach Miller (unknown)
Likely to Go: Blake Annen ($0.510M), Jacob Maxwell ($0.435M)
Need: Medium

Analysis: This need could be much higher depending on how the new regime feels about Martellus Bennett. If he's a quirky contributor, they merely need to add a complementary, blocking-oriented piece. If he's on the Marshall path, a big-time addition is likely needed. The free agent class could certainly influence this decision with marquee names in Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron available while former top prospect Jermaine Gresham is also an attractive option.

Offensive Tackle (4)

Locks: Jermon Bushrod ($8.050M)
Likely to Stay: Jordan Mills ($0.626M), Charles Leno ($0.522M)
Likely to Go: Jason Weaver ($0.435M)
Need: High

Analysis: Bushrod will stick around, in part due to the $6.6M of dead money on his deal. Mills will also likely hang around due to his starting experience. Leno has a decent change to hang around given his developmental pedigree.

That said, I expect that the Bears will pursue a tackle, be he a prospect or a mediocre veteran. The free agent class has a couple of gems in Bryan Bulaga and Doug Free, but after that pair it's just a mess.

Guard (6)

Locks: Matt Slauson ($3.268M), Kyle Long ($2.264M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: Michael Ola ($0.512M), Ryan Groy ($0.510M), Conor Bofeli ($0.435M)
Need: Medium

Analysis: Long and Slauson form one of the better starting tandems in the NFL, yet the depth options are quite poor. Ola and Groy both largely flopped in their starting auditions last year. Given the age of center Roberto Garza and the lack of a developmental prospect in the middle, the Bears figure to add either a center or a guard this offseason. Mike Iupati and James Carpenter would both be impact free agent additions, but neither makes tons of sense given the current construction of the interior offensive line.

Center (1)

Locks: N/A
Likely to Stay: Roberto Garza ($1.450M)
Likely to Go: N/A
Need: High

Analysis: Garza most likely got some kind of assurance that he would have a job when he agreed to stick around in December. Nevertheless, in his mid-30s, Garza is likely sweating out the fates of Rodney Hudson, Samson Satele, and personal favorite Stefen Wisniewski. It will be a stunner if no interior additions are made before the 2015 season.

Nose Tackles (1)

Locks: Ego Ferguson ($0.935M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: N/A
Need: Extreme

Analysis: Ego Ferguson showed plenty of promise in his rookie season. He likely has the athleticism and size to play either tackle or end in a 3-4 scheme. The Bears will almost certainly give him a role and ask him to contour his body accordingly.

Regardless, the 3-4 doesn't work without a true nose. Thankfully for the Bears, B.J. Rai, Terrance Knighton, and Letroy Guion all fit as plausible additions. This is likely the club's top priority in free agency, something that will be shored up on the first day or two.

Defensive Ends (4)

Locks: Lamarr Houston ($6.990M), Jeremiah Ratliff ($1.859M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: Will Sutton ($0.672M), Brandon Dunn ($0.510M)
Need: High

Analysis: Now it gets a little tricky as big 4-3 defensive ends can sometimes hack it as ends in a 3-4 while oftentimes 4-3 defensive tackles kick outside to play the end spot in a 3-4. As such, assigning some of the current Bears to a particular spot was tricky.

Houston has always been big for a 4-3 end, so leaving him at end in a 3-4 is more of a natural fit. Ratliff was excellent in 2014 on the interior, so given his relatively meager salary cap figure, I expect that the Bears will keep him around to try him on the outside. The club will likely add a player here, though whether they see any future at all for Sutton likely has a big impact on how aggressively they pursue a rotation player in free agency in addition to adding a draftee.

Outside Linebackers (9)

Locks: N/A
Likely to Stay: Cornelius Washington ($0.611M), Shea McClellin ($2.629M), Christian Jones ($0.512M), Jared Allen ($12.500M)
Likely to Go: Jamil Merrell ($0.435M), David Bass ($0.585M), Austen Lane ($0.745M), Khaseem Greene ($0.693M), Jonathan Brown ($0.435M)
Need: Extreme

Analysis: It seems absurd to place Jared Allen and his fully guaranteed salary in the "Likely to Stay" camp, but given that his salary is already guaranteed, the Bears get to make a purely football-related decision on whether to keep him. There were simply too many times when he was pushed off the ball and out of the play last year. However, Allen likely sticks around as a situational pass rusher, enabling him to focus on his primary skill.

Regardless, the 3-4 defense requires a fierce pass rusher coming off of the edge in order to thrive. Such a player is not on the current roster, though McClellin and Washington both received a shot of life with the scheme switch. Jerry Hughes, Brian Orakpo, and Pernell McPhee all fit the bill in free agency.

Inside Linebackers (2)
Locks: Jon Bostic ($1.075M)
Likely to Stay: DeDe Lattimore ($0.510M)
Likely to Go: N/A
Need: Extreme

Analysis: Bostic still looks like he should be an every-down player, even if the Bears are still trying to figure out which position fits him best. Lattimore figures to fit as a special teamer.

It is darn-near impossible to run a 3-4 with only two interior linebackers on the roster. Free agency is extremely underwhelming, suggesting that the Bears will target at least one draftee in the middle.

Cornerbacks (5)

Locks: Kyle Fuller ($2.202M)
Likely to Stay: Demontre Hurst (unknown), Tim Jennings ($5.250M)
Likely to Go: Terrance Mitchell ($0.510M), Al Louis-Jean ($0.510M)
Need: High

Analysis: Fuller still has an extremely bright future and Hurst enjoyed a promising 2014 campaign playing primarily in the slot. Jennings will be a full-time starter…unless the front office gets cold feet in the wake of his DUI arrest and wants to clean house. Even if Jennings sticks around, a slot/fringe starter will be added. There are dozens of competent options in free agency including Byron Maxwell, Brandon Flowers and, of course, Darrelle Revis.

Safeties (3)

Locks: Ryan Mundy ($1.500M), Brock Vereen ($0.608M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: Anthony Walters ($0.745M)
Need: High

Analysis: For a team with so many issues, the Bears are actually relatively settled at the safety spot heading in 2015. The club figures to seek out a rotation option to join Mundy and Vereen, but the need is hardly as dire as it has been in years past. Don't expect to see Devin McCourty walk through the doors at Halas Hall.

Specialists (2)

Locks: Robbie Gould ($3.600M), Pat O'Donnell ($0.536M)
Likely to Stay: N/A
Likely to Go: N/A
Need: None

Analysis: Gould suffered through a frustrating 2014 season, but he remains among the steadiest kickers in the game's history. O'Donnell flashed his big leg in 2014, though consistency will be the determining factor in his career. A new long snapper is needed, though the club will almost certainly devote only a minimum salary commitment to such player.

Cap Situation

It's mostly worthless to look at the club's roster without at least some idea of the team's salary cap situation. As for March 6, 2015, the Bears have $5.730M in dead money against their cap while their top 51 contracts count for $107.039M. Adding in a draft pool of $6.185M (presuming that the fifth-round choice acquired in exchange for Brandon Marshall will in fact be a 2015 selection), the team has approximately $115.909M (figuring that the draftees will replace the seven lowest earners among the top-51). The team's adjusted cap figure is $145.168M, leaving approximately $29.259M of cap space.

Needs

Here is a breakdown of the needs as listed above:

Extreme: Wide Receiver, Nose Tackle, Outside Linebacker, Inside Linebacker

High: Offensive Tackle, Center, Defensive End, Cornerback, Safety
Medium: Quarterback, Tight End, Guard
Low: Running Back
None: Specialists

This list reflects a few realities of the current state of the Bears. In no particular order, they are:

1.      Phil Emery's 2014 shopping spree was a colossal failure. Though Willie Young proved to be a good find, the fact that the club is starting over on the defensive side of the ball means that Emery's overhaul failed to bring about the desired improvement.

2.      The draft class figures to be defense-heavy yet again. While drafting for need gets teams in trouble when they select a lesser player because he plays the right position, the Bears have such voluminous needs that the best available player is overwhelmingly likely to fit a major position of need. Every cloud has a silver lining.

3.      The roster is going to turn over. A lot.

4.      Previous drafts have been about as poor as possible. Thankfully, Emery routinely hit on his top pick as Jeffery, Long, and Fuller all look like plus contributors. However, the pieces that fill in a roster are largely absent. Only McClellin and Jeffery remain from the 2012 class, and McClellin has been a huge disappointment. It's a bit early to judge the 2013 class, but only Long and possibly Wilson figure to be at least average players. The 2014 class looks encouraging as of now following productive debuts from Fuller, Ferguson, and O'Donnell, though poor auditions from Sutton, Carey, and Vereen are problematic.

5.      On the bright side, the only players on the roster who are genuinely deserving of extensions are Jeffery and Forte. There should be plenty of cash to throw around in free agency given that the club doesn't need to hold much back to extend their own players.