Hope Abounds Looking Toward the 2017 Chicago Bears

The 2016 Bears season is living on injured reserve. There's no way around that reality. It's true that this team never had the look of a juggernaut, but there were plenty of reasons to believe that an average-ish season was in the works, even a couple of game into the season. Of course, the injury bug bit. And then it bit and bit and bit some more.

Alas, many of the signs that Bears fans would have hoped to see in 2016 came to fruition. On the whole, the defense took a mighty step forward. Although forcing turnovers continued to be a bugaboo, pressure was much more frequent and consistent, and the linebacker play improved by leaps and bounds. The secondary remains an issue, at it has been since Peanut Tillman entered the twilight of his career.

Offensively, the drop from Adam Gase to Dowell Loggains has been as big as expected, and it has coincided with a notable downslope in Jay Cutler's career. Add in more injuries for Kevin White and Zach Miller plus an up-and-down year from Alshon Jeffery and you've got a poor passing attack. The running game, on the other hand, impressed.

With only draft positioning and prospect development to watch over the final games of 2016, let's look toward 2017 and what could be a special year for the Bears in the surprisingly mediocre NFC North.

Position by Position Roster Breakdown

As I've done in year's past, I'll go position by position. The "2017 Players" line item shows players currently under contract for 2017.

Specialists
Current Players: K Connor Barth, P Pat O'Donnell, LS Patrick Scales
2017 Players: K ???, P Pat O'Donnell, LS ???
Level of Need: 10

Analysis: On the whole, this unit has probably produced a bit better than expected in 2016. After veteran Robbie Gould was cast out in early September, Connor Barth came aboard and kicked exactly how a scrapheap kicker would be expected to kick. He should be replaced in 2017. Pat O'Donnell, on the other hand, has become one of the better punters in the NFL and has the look of a long-term piece. Patrick Scales has gone largely unnoticed, a compliment in his line of work.

Predicted Moves: Sign free agent kicker, whether a current starter like Steven Hauschka or Greg Zuerlein, or an undrafted rookie. Scales likely comes back.

Quarterback
Current Players: QB Jay Cutler, QB Matt Barkley, QB Brian Hoyer, QB David Fales
2017 Players: QB Jay Cutler, QB ???
Level of Need: 10!

Analysis: After eight straight seasons of knowing the quarterback, the Bears will head toward the 2017 season going back to the drawing board. Jay Cutler will almost certainly move on, leaving just $2M in dead cap space behind him (and lots of "what ifs" as well). Cutler's 2016 was a lost season, and Hoyer looked like Brian Hoyer always looks.

But Barkley was the real surprise. He showed more than enough to warrant a longer look, particularly given his pedigree as an elite prospect coming out of high school. What he lacks in arm strength he has more than made up for in ability to find the open man, no small feat given the bottom-of-the-barrel receiving corps that has played with him as a Bear.

Predicted Moves: The Bears will carry two quarterbacks next year. One will likely be Barkley, even though he is a free agent. The Bears will bring him back with a chance to start. The other? Look to the draft (more on this below).

Running Back
Current Players: RB Jordan Howard, RB Jeremy Langford, RB Ka'Deem Carey, FB Paul Lasike
2017 Players: RB Jordan Howard, RB Jeremy Langford, RB Ka'Deem Carey, FB ???
Level of Need: 1

Analysis: While Langford showed flashes in 2015, Howard proved to be "the guy" in 2016, earning a handful of carries early in the season before wresting the job away from Langford for good by midyear.

And he won it. Howard struggles mightily at catching passes out of the backfield, but even without that as part of his game, he has proven to have the vision and quickness to find space and get through it. The Bears found a keeper in the fifth round.

Predicted Moves: Given the other needs on the team, Howard and Langford stick around. Carey is a tossup as cutting him offers very little cap relief and he is a veteran special teams contributor. I expect that all three stay, though expect plenty of stories during camp next summer about an undrafted rookie pushing Carey for his roster spot.

Wide Receiver
Current Players: WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Kevin White, WR Eddie Royal, WR Marquess Wilson, WR Cameron Meredith, WR Josh Bellamy, WR Deonte Thompson, WR Daniel Braverman
2017 Players: WR Kevin White, WR Eddie Royal, WR Cameron Meredith, WR Daniel Braverman
Level of Need: 9

Analysis: Expected to be an explosive and encouraging group, the wide receiving corps instead starred as the biggest disappointment for the 2016 Bears. Jeffery had a middling campaign by his standards before receiving a four-game suspension for PEDs. White once again suffered a season-ending injury, this time a fractured fibula. Royal continued to miss time with less-extreme maladies, as did Wilson. Meredith impressed in spurts over the course of the season, earning a shot to return. Given oodles of playing time, Bellamy and Thompson helped visualize the notion of a replacement-level player for millions of football fans.

White showed some flashes of what made him an elite prospect in 2016 (including this great catch over Morris Claiborne), but not nearly enough of them. He'll have immense pressure on his shoulders in 2017 given that Jeffery is overwhelmingly likely to leave.

Predicted Moves: While I'd love to see the Bears keep him, it's highly unlikely that they'll make a play for Jeffery to remain in Chicago. His franchise tag salary would be $17.519M and his projected market value is a hair under $60M on a five-year deal. While I'd pay that were I Ryan Pace, I'm not. And I suspect that he won't.

It's very difficult to justify keeping Royal around, especially given that none of his $5M 2017 salary is guaranteed and he received no signing bonus. Accordingly, I expect that the receiving corps in 2017 will be comprised of White, Meredith, Braverman, a draftee, and a free agent. Arizona's Michael Floyd could be an attractive flyer candidate, though another recent DUI and subsequent release makes him less appealing. Fellow Rams Kenny Britt and Brian Quick could both fit as could a pair of young free agents in Buffalo's Robert Woods and Miami's Kenny Stills.

Tight End
Current Players: TE Zach Miller, TE Logan Paulson, TE Ben Braunecker, TE Daniel Brown
2017 Players: TE Zach Miller, TE Ben Braunecker, TE ???
Level of Need: 4

Analysis: Miller continued along his career path of flashing big-play ability while missing significant time with injury. Paulson served as a classic scrub blocking tight end. Braunecker and Brown both showed some flashes as youngsters with Brown in particular making some plays.

Predicted Moves: The list above is deceptive: Brown is an exclusive rights free agent, so he'll be back in 2017 provided that the coaching staff likes his work. I think that he's done enough, so he'll come back. I expect that the club will either add a high-ceiling draftee or a free agent in the Paulson mode, a blocking-first tight end with minimal contribution to the passing attack.

Offensive Tackle
Current Players: LT Charles Leno, Jr., RT Bobby Massie, OT Mike Adams
2017 Players: LT Charles Leno, Jr., RT Bobby Massie, OT ???
Level of Need: 10

Analysis: Leno is no star, but at least he's functional on the left side of the line, if routinely overmatched by the better pass rushers in the league.

But Massie? Massie has been a disaster in 2016, particularly when it comes to pass blocking. He simply doesn't move his feet quickly enough to keep up.

Adams got hurt because Adams get hurt.

Predicted Moves: The Massie signing is the worst blemish on Ryan Pace's record to date and he'll fix it this spring by jettisoning the failed signing, paying just a $1M cap hit. Leno sticks at LT for 2017, but a new LT prospect drafted in the first four rounds of the draft becomes the new starting RT and the heir apparent on the left side. The club signs an also-ran to be the swing tackle.

Guard
Current Players: LG Josh Sitton, RG Kyle Long, G Ted Larsen, G Eric Kush
2017 Players: LG Josh Sitton, RG Kyle Long, G ???
Level of Need: 0

Analysis: Sitton fell into the Bears' lap at the end of the preseason, and he has proved to be exactly the stabilizing force that the front office hoped for. Long played with a torn labrum before succumbing to a rather gruesome broken ankle, but neither injury figures to impact him for 2017 and beyond. This is a foundational position for the roster.

Predicted Moves: It's possible that a late-round developmental pick gets added or that an undrafted rookie makes the club here. That's about it.

Center
Current Players: C Cody Whitehair, C Hroniss Grasu
2017 Players: C Cody Whitehair, C Hroniss Grasu
Level of Need: 0

Analysis: The need here should be less than zero. Grasu showed some decent flashes as a rookie, but when he vacated his spot in his second season, Whitehair grabbed the reins and appears unlikely to give them back. Whitehair has emerged as an above-average starter as a rookie. Even if he never improves, he'll be a big piece for this franchise.

Predicted Moves: None.

Nose Tackle
Current Players: NT Eddie Goldman, NT Will Sutton
2017 Players: NT Eddie Goldman, NT Will Sutton
Level of Need: 3

Analysis: Goldman has been a stud when on the field thus far, but he hasn't remained on the field in a full-time capacity yet. He has the chance to be a foundational player if he can stay healthy.

Sutton has reached scrub status at this point.

Predicted Moves: It's definitely time to add a real backup in the interior, even if it's just a late-round pick, unless Sutton takes a big step forward in the offseason.

Defensive End
Current Players: DE Akiem Hicks, DE Jonathan Bullard, DE Cornelius Washington, DE Mitch Unrein, DE CJ Wilson
2017 Players: DE Akiem Hicks, DE Jonathan Bullard, DE Mitch Unrein, DE ???
Level of Need: 7

Analysis: Hicks has blossomed into an impact presence on the defensive line, proving to be a big-time asset in run defense with average-or-better production as a pass rusher. He seems headed for a bigger contract in the next 15 months.

Unfortunately, Bullard has squandered an open opportunity as a rookie, failing to pass Washington or Unrein on the depth chart. The Bears need Bullard to develop after sinking a third-round pick into him last May.

Washington represents an interesting case, an undersized 4-3 defensive end coming out of college who has bulked up enough to spend about a third of the team's snaps at 3-4 defensive end.

Predicted Moves: Washington comes back on an inexpensive one-year move and continues to push Bullard for playing time. The trio of Hicks-Bullard-Washington makes up 85% of the snaps at defensive end next year.

Outside Linebacker
Current Players: OLB Pernell McPhee, OLB Lamarr Houston, OLB Willie Young, OLB Leonard Floyd, OLB Sam Acho
2017 Players: OLB Pernell McPhee, OLB Lamarr Houston, OLB Willie Young, OLB Leonard Floyd
Level of Need: 6

Analysis: What a strange group! Floyd has leaped past my expectations for him to become an impact player on the edge, though his run defense will continue to need work in the coming years.

Young earned himself a contract extension and continues to generate pressure.

However, this group is seen heavily through the lens of McPhee and Houston, the club's marquee free agent additions in back-to-back offseasons. Both have struggled to stay on the field. When healthy, Houston is a rotational player whereas McPhee shows continued impact.

Predicted Moves: There's basically no way that both McPhee and Houston are on the roster next year. I suspect that Pace will be more willing to eat $1.98M to cut Houston than $1.5M to give up on his own signing, McPhee. While Floyd-Young-McPhee would form a solid true, the edge rushing position is essential to the 3-4, so I won't be surprised if the club continues to add on the outside, especially considering that there are some attractive free agents available.

Inside Linebacker
Current Players: ILB Danny Trevathan, ILB Jerrell Freeman, ILB Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB Christian Jones, ILB John Timu
2017 Players: ILB Danny Trevathan, ILB Jerrell Freeman, ILB Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB John Timu
Level of Need: 1 (or 6)

Analysis: Trevathan and Freeman were a sight for sore eyes running around the interior of the defense, making tackles and punishing ball carriers. Unfortunately, between injury and suspension, they struggled to stay on the field together in 2016. Kwiatkoski underwhelmed me when I saw him, but his grades suggest that he showed flashes.

Predicted Moves: The need at this spot depends on the health of Trevathan's knee following his gnarly patellar tear. If Trevathan can reasonably be expected to come back healthy in 2017, there's no need to add. But if he's going to need two seasons to make it back, the club might need to grab a short-term fix. I'll guess that no additions are made.

Cornerback
Current Players: CB Tracy Porter, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Sherrick McManis, CB Deiondre' Hall, CB Bryce Callahan, CB Cre'von LeBlanc, CB Johnthan Banks, CB DeVante Bausby, CB Jacoby Glenn
2017 Players: CB Tracy Porter, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Sherrick McManis, CB Deiondre' Hall, CB Cre'von LeBlanc, CB DeVante Bausby
Level of Need: 8

Analysis: This is a very strange group. Porter's production receded somewhat in 2016, a not-unexpected development, but there's still enough there for him to be a #2/#3 corner. Fuller couldn't get on the field -- nominally due to a knee injury -- and it seems as though the Pace/Fox regime is not in his camp. McManis was a core special teamer.

Then we get to the youngsters. Some of them showed flashes at various times -- particularly LeBlanc -- but none were particularly encouraging with their play. There's plenty of room for growth with them, but a competing team cannot afford to cycle through low-level prospects in the hope of striking gold once.

Predicted Moves: Callahan is an exclusive-rights free agents, so he'll likely be back. LeBlanc has earned a crack at some playing time and Hall showed some ability when on the field. Nevertheless, this group desperately needs a new "top dog," and I suspect that one of Trumaine Johnson, Prince Amukamara, Captain Munnerlyn, Stephon Gilmore, and AJ Bouye will be brought in to help solidify the group, likely at a hefty cost in the case of Johnson or Bouye. Knowing that the Bears thought that they had secured the services of Janoris Jenkins last offseason, I suspect that they'll be the leading suitor for Johnson.

Safety
Current Players: FS Adrian Amos, FS Demontre Hurst, SS Deon Bush, SS Harold Jones-Quartey, SS Chris Prosinski, SS DeAndre Houston-Carson
2017 Players: FS Adrian Amos, SS Deon Bush, SS Harold Jones-Quartey, SS DeAndre Houston-Carson
Level of Need: 10!

Analysis: Yikes. I maintain the belief that Amos can be a high-functioning member of a strong secondary, but he was arguably the Bears' best defensive back in 2016, a role that he is nowhere near qualified to occupy.

Of the youngsters, Bush looked completely lost and may have a difficult time hanging onto his roster spot in 2017. Jones-Quartey can probably stick as a solid reserve. Unfortunately for Houston-Carson, he missed most of his rookie season, a crucial year for a late-round pick, especially considering that an opportunity for playing time was at his fingertips.

Predicted Moves: Even more than cornerback, I expect that the Bears will target a playmaker at safety and nobody fits that bill better than Chiefs safety Eric Berry. Berry is closely associated with the Kansas City club, but he just finished playing under the franchise tag and may very well hit the market. If he does, the Bears will be at his doorstep.

While his name doesn't carry as much weight, Arizona's Tony Jefferson could be just as impactful in the back end, though he is more of a strong safety than a ball hawk. Jefferson may very well find himself the recipient of the franchise tag, but if he hits the market, he'll be another strong option.

Salary Cap Status

Even without considering possible cuts, the Bears figure to have a boatload of salary cap space in 2017. As it currently stands, the club has approximately $117,569,093 in salary committed for next year, including cap holds for empty roster spots that will be filled. Add in $738,046 of dead money (a figure certain to grow), an $800,000 practice squad, and $10.6M as a hold for the draft class and the adjusted spending amount jumps to $124,307,139. Even if the cap is set at the league's lowest projected figure of $166M, the Bears would have $41,692,861 of cap space next year. But then the club's rollover from 2016 has to be figured in, adding an additional $8,333,377 to the cap for total space of $50,026,238.

Reason for Hope

To me, there is one substantial reason for hope: Ryan Pace. Pace has shown a real aptitude to find talent in the draft. I'm not one to believe that certain general managers have a magic touch or anything akin to that, but some do have an uncanny ability to strike out on draft weekend. Pace does not appear to fit into that bunch.

His 2015 class features no true duds. It's true that injuries have rendered the class grade incomplete, with White, Goldman, and Grasu all missing significant time due to ailments, but when on the field, all three have shown flashes of being real contributors. Add in that Langford and Amos have shown near-starter abilities as later picks, and the class looks solid, even with Tayo Fauluje no longer with the team.

The 2016 class, however, has the look of an impact group that can form the foundation of a winner. To my surprise, Floyd has materialized into an impact player on the edge, not only rushing the passer with vigor but also showing such tremendous awareness in the run game so as to serve as an asset there as well. Whitehair has quickly established himself as one of the better centers in the league, a huge asset. Kwiatkoski has shown signs of being a starter. Hall has made plays. And Howard has emerged as a true feature back as a rookie.

It's not all rosy, of course. Bullard and Bush both need additional growth, particularly off of the field. Houston-Carson needs to be healthy to get reps. And Braverman couldn't crack his way into a woefully inept wide receiving group. But on the whole, the 2016 class looks tremendous for Pace.

In free agency, Pace's experience has been night and day.

2015 showed the perils of filling out a roster with free agents. McPhee has proved to be the premium talent Pace desired, but his numerous injuries have severely limited his overall impact. Royal has largely been a bust due to his inability to stay on the field, and Antrel Rolle was an even bigger bust as he was both on his last legs and repeatedly injured. Not to mention that Ray McDonald experience.

2016 has looked great, however. Hicks, Freeman, and Trevathan all excelled as new members of the defensive front seven, and all three did so on eminently reasonable contracts. Young's extension immediately looked like a great deal as well. Pace was ready and willing to pluck Sitton hours after Green Bay mysteriously cut him loose. Massie was the only true bust of the 2016 haul.

In two years, Pace has added an immense amount of talent to the roster without saddling the club with any bad deals. That's the mark of a man on a mission to build a winner. The offensive line and the defensive front seven have paid particular dividends to date.

Moves for 2017
Alright, the fun part. Here is a look toward the 2017 roster, starting with the players I expect to be cut/traded, moving to free agency, and wrapping up with a projected draft class. Here goes...

Cuts/Trades

Cut/Trade #1: Bears cut/trade QB Jay Cutler
The cap hit is the same either way: $2M of dead money. It's worth it. The Cutler era is over and he doesn't appear to be an upgrade over Matt Barkley at this point. Time to change the locker room, turning it over to the offensive linemen and defensive front seven. If Cutler is, in fact, traded, I expect the return to be no better than a fifth-round pick.

Cut/Trade #2: Bears cut/trade OLB Lamarr Houston
I can't imagine that Houston has much of a market, so let's just call this a cut. Injuries ruined Houston during his time in Chicago. $1.98M will hit the cap.

Cut/Trade #3: Bears cut/trade WR Eddie Royal
Royal couldn't stay healthy, and even when he was on the field at the end of 2016, he didn't look much better than the also-rans that the club played on any given gameday. With no dead money on his deal, this is an easy choice.

Cut/Trade #4: Bears cut/trade RT Bobby Massie
Massie was an elite college prospect who has parlayed that into an extended look in the NFL. It was a worthy gamble for Pace to take in 2016, but it didn't work out. It would be a mistake to give Massie another year to make good on the deal, especially with only $1M of dead money.

Non-Cut/Trades: Bears KEEP OLB Pernell McPhee and CB Tracy Porter
I expect some debate about whether either of these players should return in 2017, but I'd keep both. McPhee has shown impact ability and the Bears certainly have plenty of cap space to keep him around for another year to see if his knee is healthy. Obviously he should go if the knee is shot, but I lack that knowledge. Porter was banged up all year in 2016, but he could still be a nice part of a revamped secondary at a relatively meager cost ($4.05M). I'd take the shot.

Free Agents

*NOTE: Before delving too deeply into this, it's worth pointing out that I'd re-sign Alshon at his market rate in a heartbeat. But since I expect Pace to let him walk, I'll have him walk in this scenario. Also, whenever I discuss "base salaries" below, I'm really discussing annual base salaries and non-guaranteed bonuses like workout and roster bonuses.

Free Agent #1: Bears sign QB Matt Barkley to a 1-year, $4M deal
I won't pretend to have a real feel for Barkley's market, but I suspect that only one or two teams would actually consider giving him a shot to start in 2017. The Bears sure look like one of them. He's shown enough to warrant a longer look, particularly on a team without another obvious solution. And I'd much rather roll with Barkley than pay a hefty premium for Jimmy Garoppolo or Kirk Cousins - I don't think that there's all that much of a difference.

Free Agent #2: Bears sign FS Eric Berry to a 5-year, $55M deal
It would set a new market record for a safety. That's where the Bears are. Following the template of the Harrison Smith deal adjusted upward for inflation, it'd include a $12.5M signing bonus and approximately $35M guaranteed. Berry would have approximate annual salaries of $7M, $7.5M, $8M, $8.5M, and $11.5M.

The deal would certainly represent a significant risk, but I'm confident that both Pace and John Fox recognize the urgent need facing the secondary.

Free Agent #3: Bears sign WR Robert Woods to a 4-year, $30M deal
Woods isn't a game-changer like Jeffery is, but he's a solid #2 receiver. Given the Bears' reliance on White to be their new #1, it's important to bring in a reliable pass catcher like Woods who has only missed a handful of games in his career. This deal would likely include a first-year roster bonus in lieu of a signing bonus, something that a younger free agent like Woods would likely be amenable to (he turns 25 in 2017). Let's say a $5M bonus with annual salaries of $3M, $5M, $7M, and $10M with $13M guaranteed. The guarantee may be a little light here, but it doesn't seem wildly off, either.

Free Agent #4: Bears sign OLB Jarvis Jones to a 1-year, $3M deal
Jones has largely been a bust to date, but there's enough athleticism there that a change of scenery would make a flyer worth it.

Free Agent #5: Bears sign CB Trumaine Johnson to a 5-year, $70M deal
Johnson may not have the name value of Josh Norman or Richard Sherman, but he has been the best player of the bunch recently. The play of Janoris Jenkins in New York has likely only intensified the Bears' interest to make a big splash at corner.

This would be the marquee move of the offseason. I'd expect a combination of signing and roster bonuses in play. Let's say a $10M signing bonus and a $6M year-one roster bonus in a deal that guarantees $41M with annual base salaries of $3M, $11M, 12M, $13M, and $15M.

Free Agent #6: Bears sign DE Glenn Dorsey to a 2-year, $12M deal
Dorsey is old, but he's a strong 3-4 DE and I have to imagine that he's desperate to get out of the dumpster fire in San Francisco. This relatively modest deal would add a nice player to the line. Let's say a $3M signing bonus and base salaries of $3.5M and $5.5M.

Free Agent #7: Bears sign QB Brian Hoyer to a 1-year, $2M deal
It was half-decent the first time, so let's run it back.

Other Free Agents: swing OT (like Marshall Newhouse), reserve TE (like Larry Donnell), situational 3-4 DE (Cornelius Washington), cheap K (like Greg Zuerlein), LS (Patrick Scales comes back)
I've allotted modest amounts to these types of players, only some of whom make the final roster. This simple deals all matter. The one-year amounts (bonus+base):

Newhouse: $1.5M
Donnell: $2M
Washington: $1M
Zuerlein: $1M
Scales: $0.69M

This apparent shopping spree isn't actually all that far removed from how Pace has operated to date, picking a couple of solid players on less-than-gigantic deals to fill holes while making a big splash (in this case, two) to fill huge needs with impact players.

Draftees

The most fun. The Bears have seven selections in the draft, with two coming in the fourth round as a result of a draft day deal in 2016 but no sixth-round pick due to the Khari Lee trade.

At present time, the picks appear as though they will be approximately as follows:

#4
#36
#68
#104
#111 (from Buffalo)
#143
#225

It's a solid group of picks that will be expected to add multiple starters to the roster.

#4
It's a biggie, the highest Bears draft pick since the club foolishly chose Cedric Benson in 2005. In my eyes, the contenders are strong. Texas A&M OLB Myles Garrett is the dream, but he is unlikely to be available at #4. Notre Dame QB DeShone Kizer would likely be my pick, but I doubt that Kizer lasts to #4 with both Cleveland and San Francisco picking atop the draft. I'm not as high on North Carolina QB Mitch Trubisky, but I understand the basic appeal given his accurate arm. He does look an awful lot like Matt Barkley to me.

In the end, I suspect that Garrett and Kizer go 1-2 in some order, leaving the Bears with their pick of the litter following Jacksonville's choice. I think that the decision will come down to Alabama DE Jonathan Allen, Tennessee OLB Derek Barnett, or Alabama OT Cam Robinson. I love me some defensive linemen, but the need at offensive tackle is immense, as is Robinson's pedigree. It just makes too much sense. I the end, I think that OT Cam Robinson is the pick.

#36
A lot of attractive possibilities will be on the board atop the second round, as always. Iowa CB Desmond King would be a nice grab. WRs John Ross (Washington) and Curtis Samuel (Ohio State) would add an explosive playmaker to the offense, albeit an undersized one. If Western Michigan WR Corey Davis slips, I imagine that he'll be the pick here. If Trevathan's knee remains a big concern, Ohio State ILB Raekwon McMillan would fill a need.

The real wild card is Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who seemingly could go in the top ten or in the third round. I'd love to see the Bears take a shot on Watson, but for now, I'll assume that the Fox/Pace regime avoids such a risk.

I'm going to go in a different direction here. As the Bears move toward more of a run-heavy approach offensively complemented by a stingy defense, they figure to find themselves in more formations featuring two tight ends. The cupboard is bare at that spot, and with Miller routinely hurt, an infusion of talent is necessary. Accordingly, the Bears nab Robinson's teammate, Alabama TE O.J. Howard, to be an explosive option to help out on offense.

#68
In this mock draft, the Bears can't find a quarterback in the first round because Kizer is gone and Trubisky isn't worth it. The third round, however, could still offer a chance at a big-play starter: Texas Tech's Pat Mahomes. The drawbacks are real: Mahomes plays in a spread offense, he's a good-but-not-great athlete, he's more prone to risks than most teams want, and his mechanics oftentimes get away from him. In fact, it's rare that he uses a clean delivery.

However, the upside is immense in much the same way as it was with Cutler coming out of Vanderbilt. Mahomes has a tremendous arm and does a great job of keeping his eyes up field, despite playing behind a truly poor offensive line. I could see the appeal. But I don't think that Pace will take the risk.

The options available in the early third round are enticing beyond Mahomes. Michigan has a pair of prospects in that spot -- CB Jourdan Lewis and TE Jake Butt -- that would make sense, though I don't think much of Lewis. There are numerous wide receivers available in this area of the draft with Ohio State's Noah Brown standing out for his combination of size and quickness, although he remains a bit raw. Notre Dame 3-4 DE Jarron Jones would be a good fit. Clemson CB Cordrea Tankersley would provide a big-bodied outside defender, though his stock has slipped some in 2016 and I question his speed. UConn's Jamar Summers would fit the bill, too, though without quite as much size.

All of the above is moot, however, if Wisconsin's T.J. Watt slips to the early third. In that instance, the Bears would be wise to take the plunge and go after the one-year starter with elite bloodlines. Here, OLB T.J. Watt is the pick.

#104
The early fourth round will be crucial for the Bears in the 2017 draft. The club needs to hit on at least one of its draftees in order to effectively fill out the roster. As is always the case outside of the top of the draft, the options are seemingly endless.

But I'll spare you that discussion here. My hope is that Mississippi State WR Fred Hill makes it to #104 and that the Bears scoop him up if he does. Hill's combination of flexibility, size, and sneaky speed makes me think of a bigger/slower Johnny Knox or a smaller Alshon Jeffery. That player would be a no-brainer for any club. The pick is WR Fred Hill.

#111
The pick acquired from Buffalo feels like a nice bonus this year, and I'd like to see the Bears use it on a high-ceiling talent. To me, that takes the form of Tennessee ILB Jalen Reeves-Maybin. Reeves-Maybin comes with a legitimate injury concern, having lost much of his senior season to a biceps subluxation, and he's genuinely undersized at just 6'0", 225-lbs. However, his speed is fantastic and he is a big hitter, an excellent combination in the middle of the defense. He could learn from Freeman about being an undersized linebacker before taking Freeman's job down the line. I'd be all over ILB Jalen Reeves-Maybin if he is available.

#143
After neglecting the offensive tackle position for years, it's time for the Bears to be serious about it. Accordingly, here's the hope that they go after UCLA LT Conor McDermott, who, despite being a bit more raw than is desirable, comes with great athleticism as a former basketball player in a 6'9", 310-lbs body.

#225
There are always lots of options for filling out the roster, but given the Bears' lack of talent at wide receiver, a flyer on Miami WR Stacy Coley seems prudent. Although Coley lacks elite speed or much size, he has excellent body control and strong hands. That's a nice starting kit.

Undrafted Free Agent of Note
The Bears desperately need to find a return man. Syracuse WR Brisly Estime has only one path to the league, but his punt returning skills will give him a shot. Accordingly, he should be a target, even if it means a roster with only three running backs and even though Estime would be a long shot to crack the roster.

Final Roster
After all of those machinations, the club would have the following 54-man group to start the 2017 season (I'll let you all decide who of Jones-Quartey, Houston-Carson, and Bush doesn't make it):

QB (2): Matt Barkley, Brian Hoyer
RB (3): Jordan Howard, Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey
WR (6): Kevin White, Robert Woods, Cameron Meredith, Daniel Braverman, Fred Hill, Stacy Coley
TE (4): Zach Miller, O.J. Howard, Larry Donnell, Daniel Brown
OT (4): Cam Robinson, Charles Leno, Jr., Marshall Newhouse, Conor McDermott
OG (2): Josh Sitton, Kyle Long
C   (2): Cody Whitehair, Hroniss Grasu
NT (2): Eddie Goldman, Will Sutton
DE (5): Akiem Hicks, Glenn Dorsey, Jonathan Bullard, Mitch Unrein, Cornelius Washington
ILB (4): Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Nick Kwiatkoski, Jalen Reeves-Maybin
OLB (5): Leonard Floyd, Pernell McPhee, Willie Young, Jarvis Jones, T.J. Watt
CB (7): Trumaine Johnson, Tracy Porter, Kyle Fuller, Sherrick McManis, Deiondre' Hall, Cre'Von LeBlanc, Bryce Callahan
S (5): Eric Berry, Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, Deandre Houston-Carson, Deon Bush
K (1): Greg Zuerlein
P (1): Pat O'Donnell
LS (1): Patrick Scales

There we have it. That roster would still have approximately $36,310,291 of cap space, even accounting for the dead money mentioned above and the practice squad. The lines would be substantially better under this scenario, even after their 2015 improvement.

Go Bears.

Should Washington Have Made the College Football Playoff over Penn State?

Let me start this post by laying out a few matters:

1. I would have narrowly ranked Michigan ahead of Penn State based on my own evaluations of the teams, but I appreciate that the Committee values specific criteria in comparing similar teams in a way that heavily favored Penn State. I've addressed the PSU v. UM debate with fun, spirited conversation over the last week on Facebook. I'll leave it there.

2. This piece isn't sour grapes. Penn State gave up control of their own fate when they lost to Pittsburgh, and they were completely at the mercy of the football gods when they lost a second September contest.

3. I have no idea how this post will end up - I haven't fully researched the matter yet - so you'll find out how this debate gets settled right along with me.

OK. So here's the deal. Washington made the College Football Playoff over Penn State this year. Both teams won their respective conferences, two of the three best conferences in college football on the season. Of course, Washington lost only one game on the season whereas Penn State lost two, but much has been made of their respective non-conference schedules. Seeing as both teams lost at least one game, point #2 above dictates that neither team should be immune from slipping out of the top four.

I'd like to examine their respective schedules to see whose resume ends up looking stronger. When evaluating squads, I'm heavily partial to S&P+ and, to a lesser degree, the Sagarin ratings, so I'll be ranking teams based on their S&P+ location.

My thought for this exercise is to find the most comparable opponents for each of Penn State and Washington to see how the teams performed against said competition, taking the location of the game into consideration. Without further adieu, here we go.

To start off, we'll take the two most directly comparable games:

Rutgers
Washington beats #120 Rutgers 48-13 (home)
Penn State beats #120 Rutgers 39-0 (away)

This doesn't tell us squat. Next please.

Conference Championship Game
Washington beats #17 Colorado 41-10 (neutral)
Penn State beats #16 Wisconsin 38-31 (neutral)

There's no denying that Washington's win over Colorado was more impressive - in terms of domination and control - than Penn State's win over Wisconsin. It's worth noting that Sefo Liufau's injury severely impacted the game for the Buffaloes, but not so much that it fully explains the gaps between the teams.

Washington takes a lead.

Comparable Ranked Conference Foes
Washington beats #21 Stanford 44-6 (home)
Penn State beats #20 Iowa 41-14 (home)

Again, nearly identical results. Let's keep moving.

Comparable Terrible Conference Foes
Washington beats #89 Arizona State 44-18 (home)
Penn State beats #87 Maryland 38-14 (home)

It's almost creepy how similar these results are.

Comparable Terrible Conference Foes Part 2
Washington beats #100 Arizona 35-28 in OT (away)
Penn State beats #108 Purdue 62-24 (away)

One team took care of business. Another team needed an overtime score and stop to win the game against one of the worst D-I teams.

Any lead that Washington had in our comparison by virtue of their more impressive conference championship game showing is out the window at this point and Penn State likely takes a slight lead.

Home Game Against Crappy Non-Conference Opponent
Washington beats #96 Idaho 59-14 (home)
Penn State beats #113 Kent State 33-13 (home)

Washington makes up a bit of ground here, but comparing the virtues of various three-touchdown home wins against bad opponents is likely a fruitless activity.

To avoid any accusation of bias, let's call the squads even to this point.

Road Game Against Mediocre Conference Opponent
Washington beats #56 California 66-27 (away)
Penn State beats #48 Indiana 45-31 (away)

Washington's win here is certainly more impressive, though again the needle only moves a hair given the caliber of the opponents and the multi-touchdown victories.

Home Game Against Mediocre Conference Foe
Washington beats #62 Oregon State 41-17 (home)
Penn State beats #54 Michigan State 45-12 (home)

The needle stays steady, perhaps lilting ever so slightly toward the Huskies.

Tight Game Against Solid Conference Opponent
Washington beats #40 Utah 31-24 (away)
Penn State beats #37 Minnesota 29-26 in OT (home)

Washington's win is more impressive given that the game was on the road, but one-score victories against comparably ranked conference opponents won't move the needle a ton toward the Huskies.

Road Game Against Regional School Enjoying Strong Season
Washington beats #33 Washington State 45-17 (away)
Penn State LOSES to #26 Pittsburgh 39-42 (away)

The needle has jumped toward the Huskies in a meaningful way. While Pitt was a bit stronger than Washington State this year, Washington enjoyed a comfortable win while the Nittany Lions suffered a close loss.

It'll take something drastic to move the needle back toward Penn State.

Something Drastic
Washington LOSES to #8 USC 13-26 (home)
Penn State beats #3 Ohio State 24-21 (home)

In home games against supremely talented top-10 opponents, the Nittany Lions win while the Huskies lose by two touchdowns.

Comparing these last two bunches makes the evaluation difficult to be sure, but while I'm inclined to put the Nitts slightly ahead given the monumental nature of a win over Ohio State, a playoff-bound squad, I'll put the teams level again.

***It's worth taking a moment to address the fact that not everybody will treat the teams listed above in the same way that I have and that's fine. Perhaps you think Penn State's production was a bit more impressive through those ten games. Maybe you think Washington looks a hair stronger.

It doesn't really matter. The teams are tightly packed at that point.

I bring this up because the comps fall apart at this stage. I'll try anyway.

Early-Season Game Against Regional Foe
Washington beats #69 Oregon 70-21 (away)
Penn State beats #18 Temple 34-27 (home)

Washington's victory over Oregon really opened some eyes. Of course, we now know that this year's Oregon team imploded, finishing last in the Pac-12 North division. The win looks far less impressive with that knowledge.

Conversely, Penn State's tight win over Temple in September was a cause for alarm for most Nittany Lions fans. In retrospect, it was a good win over a Group of 5 conference champion.

Is it better that Penn State narrowly beat a good team or that Washington throttled a crappy one on the road? I'm partial to wins against good teams, but the degree of Washington's win should mean that Penn State only takes the narrowest of leads over the Huskies with one game to go.

The Other Game
Washington beats N/A Portland State 41-3 (home)
Penn State LOSES to #2 Michigan 10-49 (away)

Well this is the debate now, isn't it? Washington played a dreadful Portland State squad that went 3-8 in the FCS's Big Sky Conference. Penn State played an elite Michigan squad in Ann Arbor and got absolutely blasted. Setting aside whether it should be relevant that Penn State played the game without any of its starting linebackers (and then lost two more in the first half), which is a better bullet point on a resume?

I understand the arguments on both sides of the table. Washington won and wins are better than losses. Washington hasn't yet played a top-five team, so they should get a chance to. Conversely, Penn State shouldn't be punished for losing more games given that they played a bevy of tougher opponents. Penn State's ability to beat an elite team should give them a shot against another elite team. There's some merit to all of these notions.

In the end, Washington played one top-10 opponent, going 0-1. Penn State played two top-10 opponents, narrowly defeating Ohio State and getting obliterated at Michigan.

Washington played three top-30 opponents and went 2-1 in those games, crushing both Colorado and Stanford while losing handily to USC. Penn State played six top-30 opponents and went 4-2 in those games, crushing Iowa, narrowly defeating Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Temple, narrowly losing to Pittsburgh, and getting blasted at Michigan.

When I compare the resumes, I'm partial to Penn State's. I know that there's implicit bias in my brain. I also appreciate that I have a hard time evaluating how the Nittany Lions getting absolutely eviscerated by the Wolverines fits into all of this given that contenders so rarely have such a galling blemish on their resumes.

Still, give me a team that has played tougher competition throughout the year and looks as good or better than a team that has played easier foes.

Thankfully for Penn State fans, the consolation prize for missing the playoff is an idyllic afternoon in Pasadena to kick off the new year. While I'd rather see my team win a national championship, a Rose Bowl is truly the next best thing. Gotta find a way past the red-hot Trojans now.