Boy, it sure has been an enjoyable couple of years following Nittany football. It's no secret that while I respected JFF's abilities as a recruiter, I've long been unimpressed with his gameday coaching abilities.
That position is largely untenable at this point.
Following a couple of shaky 7-6 seasons to open his career in State College, Franklin's teams have compiled back-to-back 11-win seasons, going 22-5 over that time. Unfortunately for me, I'm 0-2 during that span. Oh well.
In reality, the program's turnaround has been even more stark. September 2016 was a disaster with a close loss at Pitt and the blowout at the Big House. JFF looked dead in the water. Since then, the team is 22-3 with a Big Ten Title, a Fiesta Bowl win, and a slew of memorable wins (although it's worth mentioning that all three losses have been excruciating: 52-49 @ USC, 39-38 @ Ohio State, and 27-24 @ Michigan State).
So where will 2018 fit into this narrative?
First, it's essential to look at the 2017 roster and see which contributors have moved on. Surprisingly, despite the amount of 2017 Nittany talent that will don NFL threads this fall (more on that in a moment), the most painful loss will likely be that of MLB Jason Cabinda. Cabinda enjoyed a splendid career running the Nittany defense. Replacing him will be...somebody. The leading contenders three weeks from the opener are walk-on senior Jan Johnson, recently-reinstated senior outside linebacker Manny Bowen, and redshirt freshmen Jesse Luketa and Ellis Brooks. Star recruit Micah Parsons even got some run in the inside this spring before bumping to outside linebacker, a more natural fit unless he ultimately transitions backs to the defensive line. Gulp. This will be a major storyline for the team this season.
Second, about that NFL talent. It's remarkable really. The draftees:
- RB Saquon Barkley (#2)
- TE Mike Gesicki (#42)
- S Troy Apke (#109)
- WR DaeSean Hamilton (#113)
- S Marcus Allen (#148)
- CB Christian Campbell (#182)
That's a fantastic amount of talent. Numerous other graduates signed deals as undrafted rookies as well.
It may seem bizarre to be more concerned about replacing Cabinda than Barkley, Gesicki, or basically the entire secondary. But hear me out as I go through the roster by position group.
Quarterback
This group is nearly perfect. Trace McSorley will show up on a bunch of preseason All-American lists. Tommy Stevens, who doubles as the backup quarterback and the "Lion" for the offense, is ready for a starting gig. The coaching staff had to fend off a number of transfer possibilities for Stevens in the offseason. That's a good thing. The #3 quarterback, Sean Clifford, enters his redshirt freshman season after having arrived as the #8 pro-style quarterback in his recruiting class.
On paper, when healthy, and before the season starts (plus whatever other caveats you want to apply), this group looks perfect.
Running Back
Look, there's no replacing Saquon. He's a generational talent, a superb leader, and a remarkably versatile weapon.
When having to replace a player of Barkley's caliber, basically the perfect solution would be to have (i) the #1 running back in his class with two years of collegiate experience under his belt (Miles Sanders), and (ii) the #1 running back in the current recruiting cycle (Ricky Slade). Perfect. This group is dripping with talent even without Barkley.
Tight End
Gesicki is an awfully rare talent with his 6-foot-6 frame and elite leaping ability. The offense will truly miss his skillset.
However, the program has a trio of experienced, block-first options to fill the void in redshirt sophomore Danny Dalton and redshirt juniors Nick Bowers and Jonathan Holland. To make matters more interesting, Nittany brought in two top-ten tight ends among the 2018 recruiting class in Zack Kuntz and Pat Freiermuth to push the veterans. There are a lot of qualified bodies, even if the role of the tight end will look a lot different this year.
Wide Receiver
This group is really interesting. Gone are a trio of key contributors: all-time reception king and slot fade ace DaeSean Hamilton, rangy Saeed Blacknall, and special teams star Irv Charles. In reality, Hamilton will be deeply missed on offense. However, Blacknall got in his own way with off-the-field issues after his breakout performance in the Big Ten Championship Game at the end of his junior season and Charles never established himself on the offensive side of the ball.
The top-two receivers coming back -- JuWan Johnson and DeAndre Thompkins -- are quite the formidable 1-2 punch. Johnson will have the chance to play his way into a lofty draft status. Sliding into the space vacated by Hamilton and Blacknall will be McSorley's high school teammate, Brandon Polk, and a bevy of freshmen, both redshirt and true. In the redshirt group, the diminutive KJ Hamler has made a lot of noise, Mac Hippenhammer had a huge spring game, and Cam Sullivan-Brown figures to earn some snaps. But the true freshman come much more highly regarded: Jahann Dotson and Daniel George will both likely redshirt themselves while #1 receiver and #8 overall recruit Justin Shorter will almost certainly force his way into meaningful playing time. With Shorter at 6-foot-4, 226 pounds and Johnson at 6-foot-4, 231 pounds, the receiving corps has the chance to create matchup nightmares for opposing defensive backfields. Even without Hamilton, there's a good chance that Nittany receivers will be stronger in 2018.
Offensive Tackle
This is the group that has coaches and engaged fans buzzing. The offensive line depth was depleted by the scholarship sanctions earlier this decade, but the line finally has the ideal mix of experienced starters and young prospects for the first time in JFF's tenure. LT Ryan Bates is a stud -- his absence down the stretch at the Horseshoe proved to be the offense's undoing. At RT, the battle between reshirt senior Chasz Wright and redshirt sophomore Will Fries -- both of whom come with extensive starting experience -- can only be seen as a positive.
Interior Offensive Line
The interior features a great mix of four-star talent: experienced junior returning starters Connor McGovern and Steven Gonzalez and highly regarded sophomore Michal Menet, the only new starter in the group.
The line play in 2017 was far and away the best yet during Franklin's run as coach, but there's every reason to expect even better production in 2018.
Defensive End
The talent here is absurd. The surefire starters in the group entering last season, Torrence Brown and Ryan Buchholz, both missed time with injuries last year. Brown may not return to the team given the extent of his knee injury. Like Bates on the offensive line, Buchholz's injury at Ohio State had a devastating impact on the defensive line.
The result of these injuries, however, is that redshirt junior Shareef Miller and a quartet of highly-regarded sophomores got tons of snaps in 2017. Daniel Joseph was the least noteworthy but comes with a pedigree. Shane Simmons flashed some skill. Shaka Toney proved to be an undersized pass-rushing specialist. That kind of player always gets a chance to get on the field. But it is Yetur Gross-Matos that has Nittany fans most excited. He has the size and quickness to be an every-down impact player...assuming he can get enough reps in this loaded rotation.
Defensive Tackle
This group is peculiar, as it has been for most of the past few years. There is no impact body to be found. Juniors Kevin Givens and Robert Windsor will get the first crack at primary jobs -- I've been a huge fan of Givens during his time on campus. Sophomores Ellison Jordan and Antonio Shelton will serve in reserve roles.
But when I look for a spot where youngsters will likely be thrust into key roles, this is the most likely location (rivaled by tight end). Fred Hansard has the classic 300+ pound run-stuffer body that isn't found elsewhere in the group. The biggest candidate to surprise, however, is Damion Barber. Barber arrived on campus last fall as a 245-pound defensive end. But given the number of plus young talent on the outside, Barber put on nearly 35 pounds in an effort to get on the field in the interior. Most likely, Barber will serve on the interior in obvious passing situations, providing the line with an extra rusher. It'll likely be tough for any of the three true freshman to get onto the field, but if somebody makes it, expect to see PJ Mustipher score some time.
Inside Linebacker
Well now, we get to the scary spot. As mentioned above, Cabinda is gone with no clear replacement. It'll be Luketa, Brooks, Johnson, Bowen, or senior Jake Cooper carrying most of the load. That's not a good thing. My bets are on Luketa or Bowen. Still, yikes.
Outside Linebacker
As it turns out, this group is likely in fine shape and, more importantly, in position to help ease the stress in the interior. Bowen has had an excellent Penn State career when on the field, Koa Farmer has grown into a plus starter as a senior, and junior Cam Brown has showed well when given a chance to play. Fellow junior Jarvis Miller will get some time, too. Most notably here, superstar true freshman Parsons will get on the field. If all goes well, he'll get on the field a lot.
I don't want to have too specific of a dream scenario here, but let's just say that Parsons and Farmer flanking Bowen would look awfully nice.
Cornerback
It's nearly impossible to graduate a draftee (Campbell) and an iconic, All-Big Ten three-year starter (Grant Haley) while still returning two All-Big Ten performers. But that's just what Penn State gets to do with senior Amani Oruwariye projected to start across from stud John Reid as he returns after missing all of 2017 with a knee injury. Reid remains Franklin's highest-rated corner recruit and has played in every game since he arrived on campus as a true freshman, starting every game as a sophomore. There's plenty of starting-level talent here.
Thanks to Reid's injury, Tariq Castro-Fields got some nice reps in 2017, as did Zech McPhearson. Castro-Fields was particularly impressive. I fully expect that he'll play his way into a full-time role in 2018, pushing Oruwariye back into his comfortable spot in the slot. Coming off of their redshirt seasons, DJ Brown and Donovan Johnson will really have to shine in practice to get themselves onto the field on Saturdays. That's a good problem to have.
Safety
Obviously Allen and Apke will both be dearly missed. I was a particularly huge Allen fan for years. That said, Nittany appears to have largely figured out the starting jobs here with senior captain Nick Scott (who wisely asked to be moved to safety from running back after practicing with Barkley as a freshman) joining converted cornerback Garrett Taylor at the back of the defense. There's always risk when replacing safeties, so this will be a tandem to watch. Redshirt freshman Jonathan Sutherland and true sophomore Lamont Wade will both help with the depth here. Wade's experience as a corner should help him get on the field, especially in sub packages.
Specialists
Junior punter Blake Gillikin has been an ace since arriving on campus. The kicking job remains an open competition as of mid-August, which rightly causes some concern, though freshman Jake Pinegar comes highly regarded. Long snapper Kyle Vasey got a scholarship, which is nifty. Hopefully nobody ever notices him.
The coverage units will really miss Charles.
The Schedule
When I looked at the team last December, this was a real area of focus. Since then, I picked every Big Ten game. Here is my look at the Penn State schedule followed by my pick for Big Ten standings and bowl assignments:
@ Penn State 31, Appalachian State 20
Penn State 31, @ Pittsburgh 26
@ Penn State 45, Kent State 16
Penn State 33, @ Illinois 16
Ohio State 30, @ Penn State 17
BYE
@ Penn State 34, Michigan State 28
Penn State 33, @ Indiana 20
Penn State 24, @ Iowa 20
@ Michigan 31, Penn State 24
@ Penn State 34, Wisconsin 27
Penn State 44, @ Rutgers 13
@ Penn State 28, Maryland 18
Big Ten West
Iowa -- 9-3 (7-2)
Wisconsin -- 9-3 (6-3)
Nebraska -- 7-5 (4-5)
Northwestern -- 5-7 (4-5)
Minnesota -- 6-6 (3-6)
Purdue -- 4-8 (2-7)
Illinois -- 2-10 (0-9)
- Like everyone, I think that Wisconsin is better than Iowa and I don't trust Ferentz to put together back-to-back winners at this stage in his career. But this is how the results shook out when I picked the games, so here we are.
- I believe in Frost.
- Northwestern is really tough to peg. If Thorson is back and at 95%, they should be pretty good. Without him, I'd be really scared.
- There's just no hope at Illinois.
Big Ten East
Ohio State -- 12-0 (9-0)
Penn State -- 10-2 (7-2)
Michigan -- 9-3 (7-2)
Michigan State -- 8-4 (5-4)
Maryland -- 6-6 (4-5)
Rutgers -- 5-7 (3-6)
Indiana -- 4-8 (2-7)
- The East is way better than the West.
- I don't ever know how to pick against Ohio State. They're just so ludicrously talented, even when breaking in a new quarterback and with significant off-field problems.
- Without picking individual games or looking at schedules, instead based solely on talent and coaching, I'd peg Ohio State for 11 or 12 wins, Michigan for 10 or 11, Michigan State for 9 or 10, and Penn State for 9 or 10. Penn State's relatively favorable schedule (only one tough back-to-back and all of Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin at home -- there's nothing like last year's Michigan/@ Ohio State/@ Michigan State gauntlet) and Michigan's brutal one (@ Ohio State, @ Notre Dame, @ Northwestern, @ Michigan State, home for Wisconsin and Penn State) impacted their projections. Michigan could be substantially better than last year yet only improve by one game thanks to their slate of opponents and game locations.
- Michigan State is just tough to gauge after their last two seasons. They return so much talent and Lewerke is awesome. Could they go 11-1? Could they go 7-5? I don't know.
- Those Rutgers and Indiana projections ended up awfully rosy.
- Things could really fall apart at Maryland depending on how things shake out for Durkin.
Bowl Assignments
Ohio State -- Cotton (CFP)
Penn State -- Peach
Michigan -- Rose
Wisconsin -- Citrus
Iowa -- Holiday
Michigan State -- Outback
Nebraska -- TaxSlayer
Maryland -- Pinstripe
Minnesota -- San Francisco
The one thing I don't like about these projections: there's no significant surprise team. Nebraska improving to 7-5 in Frost's debut season would be impressive but hardly earth-shattering. Somebody from the bottom half of the conference will likely piece together a strong season. I just don't know who and I have a hard time believing in Purdue.
So there we have it. The Penn State and Big Ten seasons for 2018. I'll look back in January to see where I missed badly and why.
