***I wrote this piece two weeks ago but due to an issue with scheduling elsewhere, I'm posting it now. I promise that it hasn't been updated in the interim (which will be obvious given no mention of an injury to Danny Trevathan).
Entering the 2016 Bears season, the range of possible
outcomes for the team was rather significant, with experts forecasting a subpar
season resulting in a top-10 pick in the 2017 draft at one end and a playoff
appearance at the other. Every team enters each season with a certain amount of
unknown variables that will impact the final product on the field, but in year
two of the Ryan Pace/John Fox regime, the Bears featured an elevated amount of
uncertainty.
While the teams' season-opening 23-14 defeat at the hands of
the Houston Texans was a disappointing way to open the 2016 campaign, it
offered up an opportunity to glean additional information about the rebuilding
process and to see how well Pace's acquisitions fit inside of Fox's system.
Not every game teaches us something about every position
group. For example, Sunday's game told us very little about the Bears offensive
line. They struggled mightily to contain the Houston front, but every offensive
line in the league will have their hands full facing elite talents like J.J.
Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus, and Vince Wilfork. The fact that the
recently-shuffled Bears unit struggled isn't particularly newsworthy; we'll
learn much more about the line in future weeks.
With all of that in mind, here are five things we learned about
the Bears from their Week One contest.
1. New offensive
coordinator Dowell Loggains likes run-pass balance
This may have been the big surprise of the game to me, even
if it isn't stunning in retrospect.
Until the final drive of the first half in which the Bears
quickly marched 75 yards on three big throws despite having just 40 seconds
with which to work, Loggains had dialed up 10 running plays versus 12 pass
plays. The expected stars of the Chicago offense are the quarterback and his
pass catchers, yet Loggains seemed determined to run the ball consistently,
even though those 10 first-half rushes netted just 25 yards.
In my view, Loggains somewhat stubbornly stuck with the run
in the second half, even though it wasn't working all that well. From the start
of the second half until the Bears took possession at the 6:10 mark of the
fourth quarter with a multi-score deficit, Loggains called exactly nine runs
and nine passes. There was no problem with the balance of his play calls. Unfortunately,
the execution let him down somewhat.
Those nine running plays netted 35 yards. While the passing
offense didn't do much better in the second half, struggling with sacks and a
costly interception, the running offense didn't fail for lack of opportunity.
The offensive line and Jeremy Langford got a big chance in a tight road game and
largely whiffed, picking up just 60 yards on those 19 rushing attempts.
It will be interesting to see if Loggains sticks with that
balance, particularly with a primetime home date forthcoming against the
Philadelphia Eagles and their undermanned, undersized cornerbacks who seem ripe
for picking on with Alshon Jeffrey and Kevin White.
2. The new Bears
linebackers will be easy to root for as the heart and soul of the defense
After years of bottom-of-the-barrel linebacker play, the
Bears coaching staff had to be ecstatic watching Danny Trevathan and Jerrell
Freeman making plays all over the field against the solid Houston offense.
Trevathan, the team's biggest offseason acquisition, proved his mettle, often
finding himself in the middle of the action. While he will never have the elite
athleticism of a Brian Urlacher or Navorro Bowman, Trevathan has played like a
borderline star for a few years now, giving him a path to Pro Bowl
consideration. His skills were evident on Sunday.
But the big surprise was Freeman, a free agent who seemingly
fell through the cracks when the Indianapolis Colts failed to make him a
competitive offer this spring. The Bears scooped him up for a relatively paltry
$6 million guarantee and just $12 million total over three years. Advanced
metrics at Pro Football Focus have been confused by Freeman's play in past
years, grading out as a plus pass defender prior to 2015 who struggled against
the run and then flipping those rates last season, grading as an elite
run-stuffer who struggled in pass coverage.
On Sunday, the Bears got the best of both Freemans as he was
credited with a league-high 17 tackles in the opening week, in addition to
defending a handful of passes in the flat. He was in on dozens of plays, and I
cannot remember a play in which he was badly out of position. His superb debut
is a credit to Pace, Fox, and the defensive unit headed by coordinator Vic
Fangio.
Both Trevathan and Freeman impressed on Sunday, and their
sure-tackling tendencies seemed to permeate the defense that allowed very
little in the way of yards-after-catch yardage, save for a beautifully designed
and called screen pass to speedster Will Fuller.
3. John Fox and his
conservative tendencies will be tough to support at times
You all know the scenario: on what turned out to be their
only trip into Houston territory in the second half, the Bears faced a
fourth-and-two opportunity on the Texans' 38 nursing a one-point lead with
about eight minutes left in the third quarter. As a road underdog in a
surprisingly tight game, either going for it or attempting a long field goal
seemed to be the obvious choices, yet Fox chose to punt. The Texans next draft
stalled quickly but a booming Shane Lechler punt led to the Bears taking over
on their own 14 for their next drive; the Texans followed with a 64-yard
game-winning touchdown drive.
I ascribe to the analytics argument that teams should almost
always go for it in fourth-and-one situations and that fourth-and-short in
opposing territory is a definite scenario for taking a shot. Even if Fox felt
uncomfortable with his struggling offense, giving Connor Barth a chance at a
55-yard kick inside of a dome should have been a worthy alternative. While
55-yard field goals aren't gimmes, the payoff was worthwhile in a game where
points were at a premium.
The decision to punt was a deflating one to me, though I
can't speak to how it impacted the players. I suspect that this won't be the
only time this year that Fox coaches passively, preferring to put his stop unit
on the field over taking a chance with his inconsistent offense.
4. Both Akiem Hicks
and Jonathan Bullard flashed the ability to be real assets on the defensive
line
After last year's group of defensive ends led by Jarvis
Jenkins, Will Sutton, and Mitch Unrein were thoroughly outplayed over the
course of the season, Pace decided to throw some real assets at the position
group, investing a third-round pick in Bullard and a $5 million guarantee in
the massive Hicks as part of a two-year, $10M deal. With Jenkins gone in free
agency, Sutton inactive, and Unrein now a reserve, the early returns for the
2016 group were promising if imperfect.
Hicks made a number of impact plays, including forcing a
Lamar Miller fumble on a play in which he blew past his man to disrupt the run
in the backfield. Bullard had a number of plays in which he was blocked out of
position, but he complemented those snaps with a handful of plays featuring
excellent edge-setting and pursuit, helping to limit Miller's second-half
effectiveness over 17 generally solid snaps.
A finally-healthy Cornelius Washington got in on the fun too
with 14 defensive snaps. After tallying just 88 total defensive snaps over the
previous three years, the injury-prone contract-year end needs to make an
impression. If nothing else, Sunday was a start.
5. Leonard Floyd
might be an even bigger liability in run protection than previously feared
Full disclosure: I was not a fan of Floyd's in the pre-draft
process, nor did I think that drafting him was a good move.
Floyd was drafted by the Bears because of his elite
quickness and plus agility on the age, traits that should enable him to get to
the quarterback as he settles into the NFL's pace of play. Unfortunately,
whereas some players hold their own as they develop, Floyd was completely
overwhelmed in his debut. Over the course of 60 snaps, Floyd was routinely
pancaked or blocked so far out of the play that he was nearly erased from the
screen of the television broadcast.
His quickness was on display in the crunching sack he shared
with Eddie Goldman, but the coaching staff may have a difficult time justifying
an every-down role for Floyd until he adds another 20 or so pounds to his frame
(assuming that's possible).
As was my concern at draft time, there's reason to doubt
Floyd's ability to gain weight. Rivals.com listed Floyd at 220 pounds as a
recruit. In his three years at Georgia, he was listed at 220, 220, and 231
pounds according to the school's official media guide. This summer, ESPN's Jeff
Dickerson reported that Fangio expects Floyd to play between 230 and 235
pounds, so the Bears don't seem to forecast Floyd putting on much weight, if
any at all.
That's problematic. The Floyd who played in Houston this
week was completely overmatched in the running game to the extent that it would
be difficult to characterize him as anything other than a situational pass
rusher. There's certainly time for him to grow both in weight and ability, but
the concern about Floyd is very real.
In the end, we learned quite a bit about the Bears in Week
One, some of which was good and some of which wasn't. As we look to Week Two,
I'll be paying particular attention to the offensive line, second-year wide
receiver White, and tight end Zach Miller.
This should be a better test of just how good the 2016 club
can be.
