Having gone through my full Bears prediction for the season, here's a look at my expectations for individual team records and the postseason.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (12-4) - too much talent not to win
Arizona Cardinals (11-5) - ditto
Los Angeles Rams (6-10) - QB will scuttle them again
San Francisco 49ers (3-13) - very little talent, period
NFC South
Carolina Panthers (12-4) - primed for another conference title
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) - easy schedule + Jameis improvement
Atlanta Falcons (7-9) - mediocrity abounds
New Orleans Saints (6-10) - cap woes finally muzzle them
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (9-7) - a bit of underachievement but roster is talented enough to overcome
Washington Redskins (7-9) - mediocre
New York Giants (7-9) - also mediocre
Philadelphia Eagles (5-11) - in transition
NFC North
Green Bay Packers (14-2) - they're due for a huge year (also due for 6-10, but that won't happen)
Minnesota Vikings (11-5) - an incredibly deep roster + good coaching
Chicago Bears (7-9) - stuck in the middle but at least there's some young talent; floor is high on D
Detroit Lions (4-12) - on the way down in a big way
AFC West
Oakland Raiders (10-6) - my big surprise pick: serious high-end talent here
Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) - solid team with low ceiling
Denver Broncos (8-8) - all defense/no offense only works so well
San Diego Chargers (4-12) - they'll be a mess
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6) - some adopted homerism but Jackson+Fowler+Ramsey+Jack on D
Houston Texans (10-6) - I love Bill O'Brien and see plenty of wins with adequate QB play
Indianapolis Colts (9-7) - still far too much pressure on Luck to carry load
Tennessee Titans (6-10) - Mariota improves them some but not enough
AFC East
New England Patriots (11-5) - more of a struggle than normal as Tom gets old
Buffalo Bills (8-8) - some continued improvement, though I'm skeptical of Tyrod
Miami Dolphins (8-8) - a step forward in Y1 for Gase
New York Jets (5-11) - no more FitzMagic
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - should be an easier year than usual for them
Baltimore Ravens (9-7) - somebody sneaks in with a so-so year
Cincinnati Bengals (7-9) - due for a dud even with Marvin's steadiness
Cleveland Browns (2-14) - get ready to raise that banner, Cavs fans!
NFC Playoff Tree
#5 Minnesota over #4 Dallas
#3 Carolina over #6 Arizona
#1 Green Bay over #5 Minnesota
#2 Seattle over #3 Carolina
#1 Green Bay over #2 Seattle
AFC Playoff Tree
#5 Houston over #4 Oakland
#3 Jacksonville over #6 Baltimore
#1 Pittsburgh over #5 Houston
#2 New England over #3 Jacksonville
#2 New England over #1 Pittsburgh
Super Bowl
#1 Green Bay over #2 New England
Friday, August 19, 2016
Prediction for the 2016 Chicago Bears Season
In previous years, I've looked at position groups in assessing the quality of the Bears' roster. I like that format but I thought I'd trying something more free-flowing this year to match my basic thought that this may very well be a tale of two seasons.
Let's start with something essential: the schedule. Here we go:
@ Houston
Philadelphia
@ Dallas
Detroit
@ Indianapolis
Jacksonville
@ Green Bay
Minnesota
-----BYE-----
@ Tampa Bay
@ New York Giants
Tennessee
San Francisco
@ Detroit
Green Bay
Washington
@ Minnesota
This probably goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: the front half of that schedule is significantly more challenging than the back half. I don't think all that much of the Eagles or the Lions, but I do think that there's a very real possibility that the Bears enter their Bye at 3-5 or even 2-6. Obviously the post-Bye schedule sets them up to go on a huge run, but it may be too late at that point in the season to really matter. Obviously we'll see.
Special Teams
In looking at the roster, I'll start with the special teams. Pat O'Donnell should be average as a punter, but Robbie Gould is on his last legs after a strong career and I have no reason to suspect Patrick Scales will be even average. This is likely to be a below-average unit, even though Gould is probably the biggest beneficiary of the NFL moving the kickoff spot up to the 35-yard-line.
Offense
The offense is a real mixed bag. I'm not worried about the running backs because there are plenty of useful bodies in the position group and even if they end up being below-average as a unit, the gap between below-average and above-average running back groups is tiny.
The tight end group looks awful, easily among the five worst groups in the league, especially when considering Zach Miller's immense injury risk. Thankfully they shouldn't be the focal point of the offense.
Jay is Jay. In his good years, he's a bit better than average. In his bad years, he's a bit worse than average. No reason to expect him outside of that zone this year. Brian Hoyer is a nice backup, though he's not anything more than that and upside is non-existent.
I love the wide receiving group. The last receiver I liked in the draft as much as Kevin White before White was Alshon Jeffery. The Bears should have no problem getting the ball to their big targets. I expect Eddie Royal to have a productive year and for Daniel Braverman to quickly play his way into the rotation as a reliable slot man with moves to make defenders miss and pick up additional yardage. It's a strong group and one that I hope keeps Jeffery in house for years to come.
Unfortunately, the success of the offense will come down to the play of the offensive line and there are numerous reasons for concern with that group. Even at its best, the line of Charles Leno, Cody Whitehair, Hroniss Grasu, Kyle Long, and Bobby Massie looks like a below-average unit. Sadly, Grasu is already out, testing the depth of the quintet. The front office continues to play musical chairs with the reserves, signing three linemen within the last week. I'm not sure what the peak is for this group with Ted Larsen at center but I imagine that Jay Cutler has nightmares about its floor.
On the whole, the offense looks like a below-average group to me, complicated by the departure of guru Adam Gase to take over the Dolphins. There's a chance that they play a bit better than I expect, but there's also a real possibility of the offense completely flaming out and being a bottom-of-the-barrel unit. The saving grace: I adore the two big receivers and even if White proves raw, his physical skills should make him an impact player from the get-go. The Bears certainly need it.
Defense
This group is completely different. In my eyes, there is one gaping shortcoming surrounded by positivity. Let's start with the nightmare: the cornerbacks. Tracy Porter acquitted himself well last year even though he was probably still a below-average starter, and Kyle Fuller still has plenty of talent even if he hasn't played at a consistently high level yet as a pro. Behind those two, it gets ugly quickly. We're talking about a raw rookie in Deiondre' Hall, a former undrafted free agent in Bryce Callahan, and two guys on the bubble in Sherrick McManis and the injured Brandon Boykin. Mediocre at the top + no depth --> recipe for disaster. The Bears will be watching the waiver wire for help outside. And I wrote all of this before news broke that Fuller is out indefinitely following knee surgery. Gulp.
Everywhere else, I like the defense. The safety group is the next weakest, but Adrian Amos is a viable starter, Deon Bush looks like a playmaker as a rookie, Harold Jones-Quartey could stick, and Deandre Houston-Carson could have a future too. It's not great but there's some real talent here.
The linebacking group is a breath of fresh air. In the inside, the trio of Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, and Nick Kwiatkoski offer a top-of-the-line starter, a solid starter, and a real prospect. Very nice. On the outside, the quartet of Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, and Leonard Floyd provide a top-of-the-line starter (when healthy), a solid starter, another solid starter, and an elite prospect bursting with upside (even if I don't like the pick). It's tough not to love that.
Still, none of those position groups matter if the Bears consistently get beat up front. That has been a huge problem in years past but I don't think that it will be this year. In the interior, Eddie Goldman is an above-average starter already at the nose and Will Sutton should be a capable reserve after a few years in the league even if he is a disappointment. On the outside, the combination of Akiem Hicks and Jonathan Bullard is bursting with upside while some combination of Ego Ferguson, Cornelius Washington, and Mitch Unrein brings experience and some explosiveness (in the case of Ferguson and Washington) off of the bench.
Combine all of this talent with John Fox's coaching staff and the Bears defense should be an above-average group on the whole given that being strong up front is more productive than being weak in the back is counterproductive in my eyes. I won't be at all surprised if Ryan Pace and his staff work hard to find this year's version of Tracy Porter in the coming weeks, especially if Kyle Fuller is out for any discernible amount of time.
Prediction
I'm going to do this a little differently too, picking a win percentage for each game and then totaling those up as opposed to picking the actual result of each game, a routinely futile process.
@ Houston: 25%
Philadelphia: 65%
@ Dallas: 35%
Detroit: 65%
@ Indianapolis: 30%
Jacksonville: 40%
@ Green Bay: 15%
Minnesota: 30%
-----BYE-----
@ Tampa Bay: 45%
@ New York Giants: 45%
Tennessee: 75%
San Francisco: 80%
@ Detroit: 40%
Green Bay: 30%
Washington: 60%
@ Minnesota: 25%
Add it all up and we get 7.05 wins which rounds quite easily to a 7-9 season.
The schedule is set up for the Bears to have a real shot at 10 wins, but a lot of things have to go right. Early injuries to Grasu and Fuller most certainly do not fit in that bucket and the overall dearth of talent on the offensive line figures to sabotage what could otherwise be a strong season.
Perhaps the worst part of all of this: unless Cutler takes a big step forward, it's highly likely that the Pace/Fox regime cuts him loose following the season as the dead money amount on his contract drops to just $2 million next year. Even if the Bears add key pieces on the offensive line and in the secondary before next season, breaking in a new quarterback will likely result in growing pains that temper expectations and suppress the win total. Progress would keep Pace and Fox around, but the pressure to win in 2018 would be immense at that point.
Here's hoping that a run of victories in 2016 changes the script instead.
Let's start with something essential: the schedule. Here we go:
@ Houston
Philadelphia
@ Dallas
Detroit
@ Indianapolis
Jacksonville
@ Green Bay
Minnesota
-----BYE-----
@ Tampa Bay
@ New York Giants
Tennessee
San Francisco
@ Detroit
Green Bay
Washington
@ Minnesota
This probably goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: the front half of that schedule is significantly more challenging than the back half. I don't think all that much of the Eagles or the Lions, but I do think that there's a very real possibility that the Bears enter their Bye at 3-5 or even 2-6. Obviously the post-Bye schedule sets them up to go on a huge run, but it may be too late at that point in the season to really matter. Obviously we'll see.
Special Teams
In looking at the roster, I'll start with the special teams. Pat O'Donnell should be average as a punter, but Robbie Gould is on his last legs after a strong career and I have no reason to suspect Patrick Scales will be even average. This is likely to be a below-average unit, even though Gould is probably the biggest beneficiary of the NFL moving the kickoff spot up to the 35-yard-line.
Offense
The offense is a real mixed bag. I'm not worried about the running backs because there are plenty of useful bodies in the position group and even if they end up being below-average as a unit, the gap between below-average and above-average running back groups is tiny.
The tight end group looks awful, easily among the five worst groups in the league, especially when considering Zach Miller's immense injury risk. Thankfully they shouldn't be the focal point of the offense.
Jay is Jay. In his good years, he's a bit better than average. In his bad years, he's a bit worse than average. No reason to expect him outside of that zone this year. Brian Hoyer is a nice backup, though he's not anything more than that and upside is non-existent.
I love the wide receiving group. The last receiver I liked in the draft as much as Kevin White before White was Alshon Jeffery. The Bears should have no problem getting the ball to their big targets. I expect Eddie Royal to have a productive year and for Daniel Braverman to quickly play his way into the rotation as a reliable slot man with moves to make defenders miss and pick up additional yardage. It's a strong group and one that I hope keeps Jeffery in house for years to come.
Unfortunately, the success of the offense will come down to the play of the offensive line and there are numerous reasons for concern with that group. Even at its best, the line of Charles Leno, Cody Whitehair, Hroniss Grasu, Kyle Long, and Bobby Massie looks like a below-average unit. Sadly, Grasu is already out, testing the depth of the quintet. The front office continues to play musical chairs with the reserves, signing three linemen within the last week. I'm not sure what the peak is for this group with Ted Larsen at center but I imagine that Jay Cutler has nightmares about its floor.
On the whole, the offense looks like a below-average group to me, complicated by the departure of guru Adam Gase to take over the Dolphins. There's a chance that they play a bit better than I expect, but there's also a real possibility of the offense completely flaming out and being a bottom-of-the-barrel unit. The saving grace: I adore the two big receivers and even if White proves raw, his physical skills should make him an impact player from the get-go. The Bears certainly need it.
Defense
This group is completely different. In my eyes, there is one gaping shortcoming surrounded by positivity. Let's start with the nightmare: the cornerbacks. Tracy Porter acquitted himself well last year even though he was probably still a below-average starter, and Kyle Fuller still has plenty of talent even if he hasn't played at a consistently high level yet as a pro. Behind those two, it gets ugly quickly. We're talking about a raw rookie in Deiondre' Hall, a former undrafted free agent in Bryce Callahan, and two guys on the bubble in Sherrick McManis and the injured Brandon Boykin. Mediocre at the top + no depth --> recipe for disaster. The Bears will be watching the waiver wire for help outside. And I wrote all of this before news broke that Fuller is out indefinitely following knee surgery. Gulp.
Everywhere else, I like the defense. The safety group is the next weakest, but Adrian Amos is a viable starter, Deon Bush looks like a playmaker as a rookie, Harold Jones-Quartey could stick, and Deandre Houston-Carson could have a future too. It's not great but there's some real talent here.
The linebacking group is a breath of fresh air. In the inside, the trio of Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, and Nick Kwiatkoski offer a top-of-the-line starter, a solid starter, and a real prospect. Very nice. On the outside, the quartet of Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, and Leonard Floyd provide a top-of-the-line starter (when healthy), a solid starter, another solid starter, and an elite prospect bursting with upside (even if I don't like the pick). It's tough not to love that.
Still, none of those position groups matter if the Bears consistently get beat up front. That has been a huge problem in years past but I don't think that it will be this year. In the interior, Eddie Goldman is an above-average starter already at the nose and Will Sutton should be a capable reserve after a few years in the league even if he is a disappointment. On the outside, the combination of Akiem Hicks and Jonathan Bullard is bursting with upside while some combination of Ego Ferguson, Cornelius Washington, and Mitch Unrein brings experience and some explosiveness (in the case of Ferguson and Washington) off of the bench.
Combine all of this talent with John Fox's coaching staff and the Bears defense should be an above-average group on the whole given that being strong up front is more productive than being weak in the back is counterproductive in my eyes. I won't be at all surprised if Ryan Pace and his staff work hard to find this year's version of Tracy Porter in the coming weeks, especially if Kyle Fuller is out for any discernible amount of time.
Prediction
I'm going to do this a little differently too, picking a win percentage for each game and then totaling those up as opposed to picking the actual result of each game, a routinely futile process.
@ Houston: 25%
Philadelphia: 65%
@ Dallas: 35%
Detroit: 65%
@ Indianapolis: 30%
Jacksonville: 40%
@ Green Bay: 15%
Minnesota: 30%
-----BYE-----
@ Tampa Bay: 45%
@ New York Giants: 45%
Tennessee: 75%
San Francisco: 80%
@ Detroit: 40%
Green Bay: 30%
Washington: 60%
@ Minnesota: 25%
Add it all up and we get 7.05 wins which rounds quite easily to a 7-9 season.
The schedule is set up for the Bears to have a real shot at 10 wins, but a lot of things have to go right. Early injuries to Grasu and Fuller most certainly do not fit in that bucket and the overall dearth of talent on the offensive line figures to sabotage what could otherwise be a strong season.
Perhaps the worst part of all of this: unless Cutler takes a big step forward, it's highly likely that the Pace/Fox regime cuts him loose following the season as the dead money amount on his contract drops to just $2 million next year. Even if the Bears add key pieces on the offensive line and in the secondary before next season, breaking in a new quarterback will likely result in growing pains that temper expectations and suppress the win total. Progress would keep Pace and Fox around, but the pressure to win in 2018 would be immense at that point.
Here's hoping that a run of victories in 2016 changes the script instead.
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