There's no way to sugarcoat the magnitude of the Khalil Mack trade: it's easily the Bears' biggest transaction since Jerry Angelo shipped out two 1st-round picks and a 3rd-rounder to the Broncos in exchange for Jay Cutler and a 5th-round choice.
While the exact specifications of the conditions of the late 2020 pick coming to the Bears are unknown right now, the basic deal is as follows:
Raiders Get
2019 1st-round pick
2020 1st-round pick
2020 3rd-round pick
2019 6th-round pick
Bears Get
OLB Khalil Mack
2020 2nd-round pick
2020 6th-round pick (conditionally could become a 5th-round pick)
There are so many issues in play here and thoughts that accompany them. Here's a run through a number of them:
1. The 2018 Bears just got way more interesting.
A couple of weeks ago, I picked the Bears to go 6-10 this year with the following comment: "the Bears are mostly talented, but the abject lack of a pass rush dooms them." Well now, about that second clause.
The 3-4 defense only works with constant pressure off of the edge collapsing the pocket. The Bears just went from having a job share between Sam Acho and Aaron Lynch to playing arguably the best pass rusher in the league on the edge.
Prior to the trade, the Bears were overloaded at inside linebacker (Roquan Smith, Danny Trevathan, and Nick Kwiatkoski), combined a star lineman (Akiem Hicks) with a plus interior starter (Eddie Goldman), featured a pair of stud starting safeties (Adrian Amos, Eddie Jackson), and has a couple of in-prime corners on the outside (Kyle Fuller, Prince Amukamara) with 1st-round pedigrees.
Add it all up and there should be nine plus starting positions on the defense. That's the foundation of a special season. The two remaining spots -- defensive end and the other outside linebacker spot -- also feature plenty of promise. At OLB, 2016 9th overall pick Leonard Floyd is due for a breakout after flashing in prior years but struggling with injuries. Lynch, Acho, and rookie Kylie Fitts now fit much better into their roles having been knocked down a peg. At DE, projected starter Jonathan Bullard played well in a job share last year and promising former undrafted rookie Roy Robertson-Harris should get a decent run, too.
Depth figures to be strong in the front seven (while it's weak at DT, Hicks' ability to slide inside elevates the floor), but the secondary depth is a concern. Deon Bush and DeAndre Houston-Carson have underwhelmed at safety while the cornerback depth is a bright flashing red light: Marcus Cooper is awful, Bryce Callahan is limited to slot duties, Sherrick McManis is a special teamer, and Kevin Toliver is an undrafted rookie. Gulp.
Still, it's tough not to be giddy about the toys that Vic Fangio now has at his disposal, headlined by the ultra-elite Mack.
The offense figures to lag behind the defense all year as sophomore QB Mitch Trubisky adjusts to his entirely new receiving options. More alarming, the offensive line figures to be a concern with below-average starting tackles and poor depth behind them. Nevertheless, there's enough there on offense to offer excitement.
Given Mack's addition, are the 2018 Bears a serious playoff contender? Ryan Pace absolutely must believe so, regardless of what he says in public. There's no sense in making this move unless he believes that a Y1 playoff berth is in the cards. I certainly do see it as a given, but it's a much more realistic possibility today than it was a few days ago. That's nifty. I'm much more excited as a result.
2. The financial outlay for Mack was massive but expected.
$141 million is a ton of money. No way to minimize that. Functionally, Mack is locked in through 2021. He can be cut before the 2022 season with $6.8 million of dead cap space left behind. Obviously if that happens, it'll be a nightmare for the Bears.
There's not much to say about the contract except this: Mack is now the highest paid defensive player in league history, surpassing Aaron Donald a day after he reached such lofty status. Mack deserves to be exceptionally highly paid. Moving on.
3. It will be extremely difficult for Mack to outperform his contract.
The Bears traded for Mack to be an impact, star-level force on the edge, not to be a value proposition financially. That's sensible.
But when evaluating the team, it's important to sign players to contracts where their value exceeds their allotment of cap space. For Mack, by setting a new top of the market, he'll need to play at MVP levels for three or four years to provide such value individually. It's just implausible.
This trade will be evaluated based on wins and losses in the coming years. But it should also be evaluated by paying attention to the individual value of Mack himself.
4. The draft compensation surrendered by Pace is unparalleled in league history and will likely cripple the franchise into the coming decade.
There's no way to soften the blow here: beginning with the Anthony Miller trade and following with the Mack deal to a much greater degree, Pace has shown a penchant for falling in love with a particular player. This is a very risky mode of operation for one obvious reason: players don't win games/championships, teams do. Teams are comprised of lots of players, upwards of 30 of which play meaningful snaps each game. Games are generally best equipped to win games when most/all of those 30 players are good. The easiest way to accomplish this, by far, is by having a whole bunch of underpaid players complemented by a handful of market-cost players. It's really the only way to survive in a capped salary situation.
Unfortunately for the Bears, as a result of the Miller and Mack deals, the Bears won't be able to build meaningful depth into the next decade unless they hit on a number of mid-to-late round picks. That's a poor strategy for team building.
Looking at the Mack deal alone, we can wipe out the value of the late-round picks: they're likely both 6th-rounders and I don't subscribe to the notion of value discounting of picks: the 2022 Bears are just as important as the 2019 Bears to me, even if they aren't to Ryan Pace. In essence, we're looking at two 1st-round picks and a 3rd-round pick for a 2nd-round pick and an All-Pro. We've already discussed the implausibility of Mack providing surplus value on his new contract, so let's evaluate the draft capital assigned to him in this deal.
First, a disclaimer: yes, there's an ultra-rosy universe out there in which the Bears win the Super Bowl while the Raiders collapse pre-Vegas, pushing the Raiders to the top of draft rounds and the Bears to the bottom. If the picks end up as #24, #32, and #96 heading to the Raiders in exchange for #33, it looks great. That's both (i) overwhelmingly unlikely to happen, and (ii) the wrong way to evaluate a trade where the picks involved are unknown. The best example here is the Texans, who figured that they were trading a late-1st in 2018 for DeShaun Watson as a team loaded with star power but with a crippling hole at quarterback.
Football season arrived, both JJ Watt and Watson suffered significant injuries, and Houston conveyed #25 and #4 for #12. Ouch.
While the odds of that scenario were low, they weren't infinitesimal. Star players get hurt all the time, torpedoing seasons. Had only one of Watt and Watson gotten hurt, Houston likely would've instead dealt #25 and #15 for #12, a terrible value proposition.
With that said, the Bears figure to make the jump from bottom-of-the-barrel to middle class in 2018 given Mack's acquisition. If they reach .500 for the first time since 2013, they'll likely pick around #16. In 2020, the hope is that they kick things up a notch and reach the playoffs, landing the pick somewhere in the low-20s. Let's say #22. That makes their 3rd-round pick #86. Oakland is less clear, so let's plop their 2020 odds at a bit less than average, making their 2nd-round pick #45.
Using the Chase Stuart chart, the Bears traded away 38.0 draft value points (16.9 + 14.9 + 6.2) to acquire 10.4 points. That 27.6 surplus points represents the value surrendered to give Mack the richest, and most cap-absorptive, deal for a defensive player in history.
27.6 points is exactly the value of the #3 overall pick in the draft. Yowzers. As a median estimate, that's a terrifying proposition. If a key Bears player gets hurt and the team struggles during the next two years, the team will surrender well in excess of the top overall pick. Then again, if Mack catalyzes a jump to constant contention, the value slides closer to the middle of the first round. Even with the economics, just about every team in the league would've traded a mid-1st-round pick for Mack.
This will define Pace's tenure as GM as much as the Trubisky trade-and-draft.
5. The combination of the cap space and draft capital used to acquire and keep Mack is such that the Bears will have a very hard time progressing as an organization.
Any success moving forward is predicated on (i) Mack remaining an All-Pro caliber cornerstone, and (ii) Trubisky exploding into a plus starter. With the opportunity to add impact talent via the draft, the Bears possessed other viable pathways to contention in the event that Trubisky struggled or even flopped. That's no longer the case. Now it is truly Trubisky or bust.
Even if Trubisky makes a star turn, the Bears are going to find it extraordinarily difficult to surround him with impact weapons in the coming years. Draft picks -- and particularly high draft picks -- offer unparalleled value when building a team as they tend to be players who well outperform their contracts. Successful teams need those. The Bears are now left hoping against all hope that Pace's 2016 and 2017 draft classes were unequivocal grand slams. We'll see.
6. It's so hard to get your hands on a player like Khalil Mack.
I appreciate the rarity of the moment. The last time a pass rusher of this ilk hit the market, DeMarcus Ware bolted to Denver and had a ring on his finger 22 months later. Mack is decidedly better than Ware was then. For that reason alone, I appreciate the unique nature of such a monumental talent shifting teams.
The last time a trade of something close to this magnitude materialized, Jared Allen was heading northward out of Kansas City for Minneapolis, where he terrorized the Bears and the NFC North for a football generation (and stopped getting behind the wheel while drunk).
7. One unintended consequence of the trade: the focus is squarely off of Smith now.
Missing all of training camp surely didn't endear Smith to his teammates and it similarly gave him little room for error with the fans and coaches: if he got off to a rough start in his rookie season, the boo birds would be plentiful. It's unknown how that affects a young player, but the odds are strong that it doesn't help.
Instead, the overwhelming focus on the Bears is squarely on Mack now. Smith can more or less ease into his professional career with a significantly dimmer spotlight shining on him. Hopefully that helps.
8. There's an exceptionally good chance that Mack plays himself into the Hall of Fame.
It should always be mentioned when a transaction involves a player with a real shot at the HOF. Mack is a unicorn.
9. Superstar athletes tend to age much better than their more average counterparts.
This is not a controversial take.
However, elite pass rushing 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers age much better than most. (*sample size warning*) Two recent Bears pass rushers offer specific hope.
Julius Peppers came to the Bears for his age-30 season, providing star level production for three years before a fourth above-average season preceded his departure. Productivity through age-33 was great. (Peppers has since provided average defense for four additional years, an even more impressive feat.)
Similarly, Jared Allen offered elite production into his 30s, starring still as a 31-year-old for the Vikings in 2013. The wheels largely fell off once he joined the Bears at 32, but that doesn't negate his prior production.
The Bears are locked into Mack for four years with the fifth year operating as something of a team option: the Bears owe Mack $24.55M in 2022 against $6.8M of dead cap money. There is no dead money in subsequent years as of now, though it is highly likely that some of Mack's base salaries in the coming years are restructured into bonuses for cap spreading purposes that allocate money to the cap in 2023 and beyond. Regardless, the first four years of Mack's deal cover ages 27 through 30, suggesting that the Bears really do stand to buy some excellent (if not prime) years.
10. Mack adds as much value as any one non-quarterback player could to the 2018 Bears.
As I said above, the glaring weakness for this year's squad defensively was at rush linebacker. Without Mack, the 6-10 season would be a frustrating outcome for a team with all of the other pieces in place.
Now, with Mack in tow, 2018 looks much more like a springboard. The defense is certainly playoff-caliber while the offense has the tools to get there if everything comes together. That's not altogether likely, however, so a .500 record against a subpar schedule seems prudent. Let's put the Bears at 8-8 now instead of 6-10.
Let's also call out the obvious: if Trubisky makes a sophomore leap, the sky is now the limit for these Bears. That was an unfathomable statement last week.
Thursday, September 6, 2018
Rethinking 2018 Nittany: Musings on the Appalachian State Thriller
I was as excited for this Nittany season, perhaps more so than any other season in recent memory. 2009 is the closest second of which I can think.
Week 1 against Appalachian State certainly offered more excitement than most expected, myself included. It also expose numerous issues with the team, as well as some surprising signs for optimism.
There's no sense in pretending that these thoughts are well organized, so let's just get right into them.
1. Seasons don't die with wins.
Obviously preseason polls don't mean diddly squat. Nevertheless, Penn State opening the season ranked 10th indicated that many folks outside of the program expect continued success in 2018.
Many of the season's goals -- make the CFP, undefeated year, elite ranking in the final polls, etc. -- would've died with a home loss to Appalachian State. The conference goals would've remained, but so many goals would've been dashed that it would've been tough to have a successful year.
On the other hand, seasons simply don't die with wins. Even underwhelming home wins against Group of 5 teams. Even against programs that recently ascended to FBS. Wins are exponentially more palatable than losses, as they should be.
Everybody remembers Clemson's remarkable, truly last second win against Alabama to win the 2016 National Championship. Fewer folks recall that Clemson need 17 4th quarter points against Troy on their home opener to secure a six-point win. The Tigers slipped three spots in the polls after that game, just like Penn State just did, but the season turned out just fine.
I'm not saying that 2018 Penn State is 2016 Clemson. I'm simply hammering the idea that wins never kill seasons. Losses do.
2. I expected Appalachian State to be solid, but they were substantially more impressive than expected.
Everybody remembers the 2007 trip that the Mountaineers took to the Big House, shocking the then 5th-ranked Wolverines. Since that FCS Championship season, the Mountaineers enjoyed solid seasons but hardly impactful ones before making the FBS in the Sun Belt Conference in 2014. After their solid 7-5 (6-2) debut season, they ripped off a three-year stretch of 30-9 (21-3) from 2015-17. They're not just an also-ran program in the North Carolina mountains. They're a strong Group of 5 program.
Prior to the season, I picked a 31-20 Penn State victory, closer than my expected margins of victory over Kent State, @ Indiana, and @ Rutgers. After having made those picks, I discovered that S&P+ pegged the Mountaineers as the 59th best team in the country, immediately ahead of Power 5 trio Kansas State, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech. Had Penn State needed a thriller to get by Scott Frost's Cornhuskers or Bill Snyder's Wildcats, there would be far less consternation.
It's still possible that Appalachian State is mediocre and Penn State is wildly overrated. However, there's a similarly plausible storyline where Zac Thomas dropped dimes all over the field at Beaver Stadium because he's a pretty darn good quarterback, not because Penn State's defense stinks.
3. The 4th-quarter onside kick was easily the most embarrassing play for the Nittany Lions.
I said, audibly, to my television screen that the front line needed to be prepared for the possibility of an onside kick after App. State drew the score to 31-24 in the 4th. It was a classic underdog onside kick situation and Penn State presented a formation that made it far too compelling to attempt. The front line really blew it there, but it's tough not to put that on the coaching staff. Coaches have to have a feel for that type of game situation.
4. Trace McSorley, rather quietly, had yet another superstar performance.
McSorley's day was largely overshadowed by focus on new Nittany starters and the raucous App. State 4th quarter. That makes sense. However, McSorley oh so quietly threw for 229 yards and a game-tying touchdown in the final minute without a turnover, adding 53 yards on 12 carries with two additional scores. He has made the excellent routine. He also wasn't helped by an uncharacteristically underwhelming performance from Juwan Johnson.
Two plays stick out more than the rest. McSorley's game (season?) saving first down on 4th and 2 with just over a minute left was the result of calm, superb actions in the face of a crushing upset. He hit Brandon Polk on a hot route, beating Appalachian State's 8-man zone before it had a chance to shut down his throwing lanes. And then, three plays later, McSorley stared down a ferocious pass rush to stand in the pocket and deliver a game-tying score on a beautiful throw to KJ Hamler.
However, it's not just those plays that make McSorley special. It's also his ability to, with incredible consistency, properly read the opposing pass rush, either delivering a quick hit or slipping through a hole to turn many plays into run-pass options (RPOs).
Those play will carry the Nittany Lions far this fall. Having watched a number of games this weekend, I didn't see another quarterback show such tremendous grasp of the situation on nearly every down. That, more than anything else, is Penn State's primary advantage.
5. The concerns at linebacker only got worse in the opener.
My biggest concern: Jan Johnson would look like a walk-on athletically, regardless of his fifth-year senior status. That's precisely what happened as Johnson played 47 snaps, 10 fewer than Koa Farmer and 20 fewer than Cam Brown. Johnson doesn't look like he'll survive the year as the starter.
Two freshmen got decent run as Micah Parsons scored 21 snaps while redshirt freshman Ellis Brooks got 15. I didn't much notice Brooks -- which may be a good thing given how Johnson stood out for the wrong reasons -- but I sure did notice Parsons. The same issues that showed up on his high school tape reared their head. Parsons is an athletic freak. He does a great job using this athleticism to shed blocks. What he does not do, however, is use his athleticism to hit. Parsons routinely got in solid position to make a play but appeared to pull up, either because he was tired by the pace of the college game (unlikely given his snap count) or because of a predisposition to avoid laying out opposing players (very likely given the prevalence of this in his prep tape). It's easy enough for a collegiate strength and conditioning program to help a player add muscle and weight over a couple of years. I'm not sure if you can reorient a player's hard wiring to play more viciously, but Penn State will likely need to do so with Parsons in order to help him become the impact player that the defense so desperately needs.
6. P.J. Mustipher made the most of his 11 snaps.
A true freshman, Mustipher finds himself in the enviable spot of having a Big Ten-ready body in a position group with some snaps to distribute. He got only 11 on defense, but he made his presence known. He seems like the kind of player who will benefit most from the new redshirting rule: he could very well play 70+ snaps over four games while maintaining his redshirt season. The depth chart at defensive tackle doesn't appear particularly set, but Mustipher had four names ahead of him against Appalachian State in Robert Windsor (52 snaps), Ellison Jordan (31), Fred Hansard (27), and Antonio Shelton (24), and that's before returning starter redshirt junior Kevin Givens returns from his one-game suspension. Still, the lack of obvious plus starters and reserves gives Mustipher an opening to play his way into more important snaps.
7. Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan fans need to take some deep breaths.
The first two teams on this last failed to cover 20+ point spreads in majestic fashion, needing late touchdowns and stops to hold off Group of 5 foes at home. Nobody ever wants that.
Thankfully, I watched the vast majority of both games and after a few days of deep breathing myself, I'm reasonably confident that both State schools still have strong seasons ahead of them. The reasons that they were expected to be great this year -- important, veteran talent and coaching staffs with a penchant for winning -- remain. It's not exactly rare for teams to struggle in September and look completely different and substantially improved by November. I won't be surprised if that happens with either of the States.
Of course, there's the pesky matter of this week's games for both squads. Both teams travel to hostile environments, though the reasons for the hostility are monumentally different. Michigan State gets the brutal experience of playing in 100 degree desert heat against Arizona State in a game that will kick off at 10:45pm Eastern. Penn State travels a much shorter distance but they do so to play rival Pitt, also at night and on national television. If Pat Narduzzi wants to announce the arrival of his program, Saturday night will be his best opportunity.
Like most, I expect reasonably close games. Unlike most, I expect the Big Ten teams to emerge victorious for the simple reason that they are better than their opponents and the outside factors don't make up enough of the talent gap to fuel the upsets. We'll see if the fan bases and media overreacted to some Week 1 scares or if I underreacted to them.
There is one unfortunate hiccup in the "we'll be better later in the season" plan for Penn State: Ohio State had no such struggles in Week 1 against an admittedly poor Oregon State team. The Buckeyes visit Beaver Stadium in three weeks. Gulp.
Week 1 against Appalachian State certainly offered more excitement than most expected, myself included. It also expose numerous issues with the team, as well as some surprising signs for optimism.
There's no sense in pretending that these thoughts are well organized, so let's just get right into them.
1. Seasons don't die with wins.
Obviously preseason polls don't mean diddly squat. Nevertheless, Penn State opening the season ranked 10th indicated that many folks outside of the program expect continued success in 2018.
Many of the season's goals -- make the CFP, undefeated year, elite ranking in the final polls, etc. -- would've died with a home loss to Appalachian State. The conference goals would've remained, but so many goals would've been dashed that it would've been tough to have a successful year.
On the other hand, seasons simply don't die with wins. Even underwhelming home wins against Group of 5 teams. Even against programs that recently ascended to FBS. Wins are exponentially more palatable than losses, as they should be.
Everybody remembers Clemson's remarkable, truly last second win against Alabama to win the 2016 National Championship. Fewer folks recall that Clemson need 17 4th quarter points against Troy on their home opener to secure a six-point win. The Tigers slipped three spots in the polls after that game, just like Penn State just did, but the season turned out just fine.
I'm not saying that 2018 Penn State is 2016 Clemson. I'm simply hammering the idea that wins never kill seasons. Losses do.
2. I expected Appalachian State to be solid, but they were substantially more impressive than expected.
Everybody remembers the 2007 trip that the Mountaineers took to the Big House, shocking the then 5th-ranked Wolverines. Since that FCS Championship season, the Mountaineers enjoyed solid seasons but hardly impactful ones before making the FBS in the Sun Belt Conference in 2014. After their solid 7-5 (6-2) debut season, they ripped off a three-year stretch of 30-9 (21-3) from 2015-17. They're not just an also-ran program in the North Carolina mountains. They're a strong Group of 5 program.
Prior to the season, I picked a 31-20 Penn State victory, closer than my expected margins of victory over Kent State, @ Indiana, and @ Rutgers. After having made those picks, I discovered that S&P+ pegged the Mountaineers as the 59th best team in the country, immediately ahead of Power 5 trio Kansas State, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech. Had Penn State needed a thriller to get by Scott Frost's Cornhuskers or Bill Snyder's Wildcats, there would be far less consternation.
It's still possible that Appalachian State is mediocre and Penn State is wildly overrated. However, there's a similarly plausible storyline where Zac Thomas dropped dimes all over the field at Beaver Stadium because he's a pretty darn good quarterback, not because Penn State's defense stinks.
3. The 4th-quarter onside kick was easily the most embarrassing play for the Nittany Lions.
I said, audibly, to my television screen that the front line needed to be prepared for the possibility of an onside kick after App. State drew the score to 31-24 in the 4th. It was a classic underdog onside kick situation and Penn State presented a formation that made it far too compelling to attempt. The front line really blew it there, but it's tough not to put that on the coaching staff. Coaches have to have a feel for that type of game situation.
4. Trace McSorley, rather quietly, had yet another superstar performance.
McSorley's day was largely overshadowed by focus on new Nittany starters and the raucous App. State 4th quarter. That makes sense. However, McSorley oh so quietly threw for 229 yards and a game-tying touchdown in the final minute without a turnover, adding 53 yards on 12 carries with two additional scores. He has made the excellent routine. He also wasn't helped by an uncharacteristically underwhelming performance from Juwan Johnson.
Two plays stick out more than the rest. McSorley's game (season?) saving first down on 4th and 2 with just over a minute left was the result of calm, superb actions in the face of a crushing upset. He hit Brandon Polk on a hot route, beating Appalachian State's 8-man zone before it had a chance to shut down his throwing lanes. And then, three plays later, McSorley stared down a ferocious pass rush to stand in the pocket and deliver a game-tying score on a beautiful throw to KJ Hamler.
However, it's not just those plays that make McSorley special. It's also his ability to, with incredible consistency, properly read the opposing pass rush, either delivering a quick hit or slipping through a hole to turn many plays into run-pass options (RPOs).
Those play will carry the Nittany Lions far this fall. Having watched a number of games this weekend, I didn't see another quarterback show such tremendous grasp of the situation on nearly every down. That, more than anything else, is Penn State's primary advantage.
5. The concerns at linebacker only got worse in the opener.
My biggest concern: Jan Johnson would look like a walk-on athletically, regardless of his fifth-year senior status. That's precisely what happened as Johnson played 47 snaps, 10 fewer than Koa Farmer and 20 fewer than Cam Brown. Johnson doesn't look like he'll survive the year as the starter.
Two freshmen got decent run as Micah Parsons scored 21 snaps while redshirt freshman Ellis Brooks got 15. I didn't much notice Brooks -- which may be a good thing given how Johnson stood out for the wrong reasons -- but I sure did notice Parsons. The same issues that showed up on his high school tape reared their head. Parsons is an athletic freak. He does a great job using this athleticism to shed blocks. What he does not do, however, is use his athleticism to hit. Parsons routinely got in solid position to make a play but appeared to pull up, either because he was tired by the pace of the college game (unlikely given his snap count) or because of a predisposition to avoid laying out opposing players (very likely given the prevalence of this in his prep tape). It's easy enough for a collegiate strength and conditioning program to help a player add muscle and weight over a couple of years. I'm not sure if you can reorient a player's hard wiring to play more viciously, but Penn State will likely need to do so with Parsons in order to help him become the impact player that the defense so desperately needs.
6. P.J. Mustipher made the most of his 11 snaps.
A true freshman, Mustipher finds himself in the enviable spot of having a Big Ten-ready body in a position group with some snaps to distribute. He got only 11 on defense, but he made his presence known. He seems like the kind of player who will benefit most from the new redshirting rule: he could very well play 70+ snaps over four games while maintaining his redshirt season. The depth chart at defensive tackle doesn't appear particularly set, but Mustipher had four names ahead of him against Appalachian State in Robert Windsor (52 snaps), Ellison Jordan (31), Fred Hansard (27), and Antonio Shelton (24), and that's before returning starter redshirt junior Kevin Givens returns from his one-game suspension. Still, the lack of obvious plus starters and reserves gives Mustipher an opening to play his way into more important snaps.
7. Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan fans need to take some deep breaths.
The first two teams on this last failed to cover 20+ point spreads in majestic fashion, needing late touchdowns and stops to hold off Group of 5 foes at home. Nobody ever wants that.
Thankfully, I watched the vast majority of both games and after a few days of deep breathing myself, I'm reasonably confident that both State schools still have strong seasons ahead of them. The reasons that they were expected to be great this year -- important, veteran talent and coaching staffs with a penchant for winning -- remain. It's not exactly rare for teams to struggle in September and look completely different and substantially improved by November. I won't be surprised if that happens with either of the States.
Of course, there's the pesky matter of this week's games for both squads. Both teams travel to hostile environments, though the reasons for the hostility are monumentally different. Michigan State gets the brutal experience of playing in 100 degree desert heat against Arizona State in a game that will kick off at 10:45pm Eastern. Penn State travels a much shorter distance but they do so to play rival Pitt, also at night and on national television. If Pat Narduzzi wants to announce the arrival of his program, Saturday night will be his best opportunity.
Like most, I expect reasonably close games. Unlike most, I expect the Big Ten teams to emerge victorious for the simple reason that they are better than their opponents and the outside factors don't make up enough of the talent gap to fuel the upsets. We'll see if the fan bases and media overreacted to some Week 1 scares or if I underreacted to them.
There is one unfortunate hiccup in the "we'll be better later in the season" plan for Penn State: Ohio State had no such struggles in Week 1 against an admittedly poor Oregon State team. The Buckeyes visit Beaver Stadium in three weeks. Gulp.
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