Last summer, in the midst of my family's July camping trip, Theo Epstein went bananas and shipped out the farm for a shot at Jose Quintana's contact (and, I suppose, his arm, too). With that deal nearly a year old, it's time to look back in the best way possible: by transcribing a text chain chronicling that day's discussion!
The text chain below involved me ("Rob"), my brother, Mike ("Mike"), my best friend, Joey ("Joey"), and our mutual friend, Zack ("Zack"). Now that you know the actors and the scene (everyone else was plugged into civilization whereas I was in a remote area along the Lake Michigan coast, hence spotty reception and no Internet), here goes (with only the lightest editing to make sentences, well, into full sentences)!
Mike: We traded Eloy and Cease for Quintana? Holy crap ChiSox. This feels like an overpay. The Cubs better get on a tear now.
Zack: Uh Wut?
Joey: Effin Quintana <inserts picture of "The Dude" shaking his head no in the bowling alley>
Rob: Out camping with terrible reception: can somebody please text me the full trade?
Mike: Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose and Brian Flete for Jose Quintana.
Rob: At least Rose and Flete are nothing. Nevertheless: Theo has lost his damn mind. ChiSox would've taken this deal in January. Since then: Quintana much worse, Eloy and Cease much better. C'mon Theo.
Zack: I think Theo gets the benefit of the doubt, doesn't he?
Mike: I'm not sure if Cease wouldn't have bested Kopech for purposes of constructing a Chris Sale trade in the winter, but this is getting close to that level. My guess is Theo isn't done - I think we'll grab another starter and I wonder if there's truth to the Ian Happ or Kyle Schwarber to the Tigers rumors. I think Sonny Gray is worse but could've been had for less. I wonder how much more Archer would've cost. Most ppl think Eloy is one of the games top 5 hitting prospects. I can live with Cease going. While we have no other high end pitching prospects besides him, trading him is worthwhile for 3 years of control of a good MLB starter.
Rob: I honestly wonder if Theo even realizes that he just made the Jeff Samardzija trade.
Mike: Probably. Btw - perhaps he should go get Samardzija.
Rob: Except, of course, that the cost of the extra year of Quintana is apparently the cavernous gap between Cease and nothing. I'd be happy to bring Shark back, but what the hell is he gonna use for ammo? Re benefit of the doubt: Theo sure as shit knows how to sell. I'm not sure if he knows how to buy all that well. Eloy was a consensus top-10 overall prospect on every mid season list. He'll be in the Majors by this time next year. As assets, he's more valuable than Quintana, straight up. Desperate teams always pay a tax for their desperation; I get that. This seems extreme.
Mike: Shark is a rental who gives up lots of HRs. Candelario, La Stella, Zagunis, De La Cruz, Clifton, Ademan.
Rob: Shark has 3.5 years left on deal. Not a rental at all. If I could poo poo platter my way to Shark, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Ask yourself this: how much would you pay for Jake Arrieta right now if he had two club options? Jake's FIP (4.17) is a rounding error away from Quintana's (4.01). The Cubs just paid for an ace and got a guy who had been a #2 before being a #3/4 this year. They better hope that most of his struggles were the result of a general malaise for playing for a tanking team. BTW: which Chicago tam will be better in 2020? Final point: sure feels like the Cubs paid a huge talent premium to get Quintana's controlled dollars. Think about the Ricketts avoiding the luxury tax instead of assembling the most talented roster the next time you drop $11 for a beer.
Mike: Jake is still a top 40 pitcher. That guy gets a start in a playoff series. He doesn't start game 1 like Archer would.
Rob: For the Cubs, yes. For the Nats? Or Dodgers? Or even the D-Backs? Probably not.
Mike: If Hahn gets next year's draft pick right, he will have built a better prospect stable than Theo did during the Cubs rebuild. Of course, he started with more impact talent to trade away.
Rob: I'm waiting for you guys to tell me that Mike said I was going camping with spotty internet so you decided to play an elaborate prank on me. A bit more, yes. But Theo should have had an extra $50M/year to spend on talent acquisition.
Zack: Theo brought us a World Series title and ended the curse. I trust him. Everything else is pure speculation. How many "can't miss" prospects have missed? In Theo I trust.
Rob: That's true. Also true: he also built this year's 43-45 team that has a run differential of 0 in baseball's worst division. And the "waves and waves of talent?" That was a lie. There was one wave, it was awesome, but it won't have reinforcements coming. The system is probably bottom-5 overall now. For the Cubs in the Theo era? Literally none, unless you count Arismendy (who wasn't Theo's). Everyone else was a smash hit, hence the World Series win and Happ being the third best player on this year's team.
Zack: Yeah I'm not that worried. They have had 2 very long years of exceptional baseball. A hangover is to be expected. If they can get it together, great, but I'm not going to throw in the towel.
Mike: Sahadev and Greenberg are both surprisingly positive on this one.
Rob: Let's put it this way: a top-5 hitting prospect a year from the Majors is worth something like $50-70M as an asset, maybe higher now. A back-end top-100 prospect is worth something like $20M. Factor in Quintana's salary (about $34M remaining) and the Cubs surrendered about $115M for 3.5 years of Quintana. Even in a crazy expensive marketplace, that's a laughable rate.
Mike: But you're talking value, not actual dollars. Actual dollars are what the Ricketts are spending. Watch Heyward explode next year then opt out. If not, Eloy is worth less to us than others, although I'm not really higher on this right now than you are. I didn't see a scenario where they'd trade him and I'd want an Archer type guy in return for doing so.
Rob: Rick Hahn: "Cubs offer was far and away the best offer we received." That's great if you're the Sox. Not so great if you're the Cubs. Talent resources are limited and this marks the second straight summer that Theo has used the far more precious resource - talent - to acquire players instead of using Ricketts cash. I resent the hell out of that. True, it may not be Theo's fault that his hands are tied financially, but it still sucks for fans. Yes, Eloy is worth less to Cubs than to other teams. But only about .1% less. He looks an awful lot like a middle-of-the-order bat 1.5 years from now, controllable for 6+ years. The Cubs have had the likes of Zobrist, Heyward, and Russell hitting in the 4/5 spots. And the Cubs are two games under .500. They need impact talent just like every other team, and whether it comes from an outfielder or a pitcher is irrelevant for a team that has scored and surrendered nearly an average amount of runs.
Zack: Also, Eloy is a dumb name. Can we get any trade value from Addison? Send him and Jeimer to the D for Justin Verlander (and Kate Upton).
Well, there we have it. A year later and the concerns of this deal have only been exacerbated as Quintana's velocity dropped while Eloy's OPS continued to soar. There's no certainty yet that this deal will end poorly for the Cubs...but it doesn't look good.
