Huff on Sports: March 2017

Friday, March 24, 2017

2017 MLB Predictions

Last year's picks featured some nice choices, like picking the Indians to lose the World Series and pegging the Cubs for baseball's best regular season record. Of course, there were also some real duds that stand out like sore thumbs: picking both Houston and Anaheim 10 wins too high, missing both Arizona and Colorado by 15 games (in opposite directions), overshooting the Twins by 19 wins, and, worst of all, picking the playoff-bound Orioles to finish 22 games under .500. Alas, on the whole, I feel pretty good about the picks for the teams.

My award picks were all over the place. My pick for NL MVP -- Giancarlo Stanton -- posted the worst season of his career and didn't garner a single vote. On the other hand, my AL pick -- Mike Trout -- won the award. My Cy Young picks finished third and fourth. But like my MVP picks, my Rookie of the Year picks were right on (Corey Seager) and wildly off (Byron Buxton) just like my Manager of the Year choices (Terry Francona won whereas Bruce Bochy got no votes).

Enough looking back. Let's look to 2017 as the World Champion Chicago Cubs look to defend their crown. As always, italicized teams will participate in the postseason.

American League West
Houston (94-68)
Seattle (86-76)
Texas (82-80)
Anaheim (73-89)
Oakland (65-97)

Last year, the Texas Rangers posted a Pythagorean record of just 82-80 yet they parlayed a strong bullpen and a run of luck into 95 wins and the American League's best record. That's not happening again. They'll be better but the luck won't carry over, yielding a disappointing season in light of last year's fun. Texas also already has a franchise-high payroll despite a huge impending decision on Yu Darvish. There's little financial flexibility here.

Instead, the division crown will go to the team that both has the strongest current roster and the best ability to make a move this summer to embolden their playoff chances. The Astros already had a superb infield with Carlos Correa flanked by Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, but they filled out holes over the last year adding Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Yulieski Gurriel. There are real issues here -- Nori Aoki ain't much in left, the starting rotation lacks inspiring depth options, and I don't buy George Springer as an everyday glove in center -- but the strong offense, loaded bullpen, and strong top-four in the rotation should gobble up plenty of wins in Houston. Throw in that, although payroll is at a franchise-high level, I suspect that they have $10M+ left to spend given that they're just now back above their 2009 level and that they have a loaded farm system, and Houston looks like a big buyer on the summer starting pitching market.

Seattle remains stuck in the middle with just enough talent to be good but not enough upside to be better than that. Payroll is ballooning and big raises are due next year to Kyle Seager, Drew Smyly, Jean Segura, and James Paxton. Plus, the farm is atrocious. Jerry DiPoto may have to blow things up this year.

Poor Mike Trout. He's arguably the best baseball player ever. He's rich beyond dreams. And he plays for a team expected to start Martin Maldonado, Danny Espinosa, Yunel Escobar, and Luis Valbuena in the same infield. All of those players are solid as the third or fourth best among the group of four infielders and a catcher, but stuck altogether in the same group? That's no good. Add in a perennially injured rotation and the outlook is bleak.

Then there's Oakland. The projection systems don't hate the A's, but I see a team going nowhere fast with a general manger willing to sell off all of his spare parts. So, come July, expect to see Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle, Rajai Davis, Jed Lowrie, John Axford, and perhaps even Sonny Gray packing their bags. Throw in some growing pains for promising young starters Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton and you've got the recipe for a dreadful season.

American League Central
Cleveland (99-63)
Detroit (89-73)
Kansas City (75-87)
Minnesota (71-91)
Chicago (60-102)

Cleveland is awesome. Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis are two of my favorite ballplayers, and they're surrounded in a lineup by average or better starters at just about every spot, Tyler Naquin skepticism notwithstanding, and adding Edwin Encarnacion was a genius move. Still, this team is driven by their prodigious arms. Kluber-Carrasco-Salazar once again looks excellent, and Bauer-Tomlin as the 4-5 is strong. The bullpen of Miller-Allen-Shaw-McAllister-Otero inexplicably got a boost with the arrival of Boone Logan, as if that was needed. The Indians are going to win a ton of games in 2017, in small part because their division is tanking but in large part because they're darn good at baseball.

I'm still a sucker for the Tigers. I love that rotation at the top with Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann, and Michael, and between Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, Anibal Sanchez, and Mike Pelfrey, Detroit should be able to throw a solid starter in every game. That's a good start. The bullpen is a little wobbly, but Francisco Rodriguez and Justin Wilson form a nice duo while the Tigers hope for bounce-back years from Bruce Rondon and Mark Lowe. Still, it's all about the offense. Some year, guys like Miggy, Kinsler, and Victor Martinez are going to fall off of a cliff. But not this year. Surround them with Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, Jose Iglesias, and big problems at catcher and in center field and you've got a flawed team with the chance to score a lot. I'll buy the upside, just like I do every year. The caveat here, of course: with Mike Ilitch gone, will his family keep spending at the current level or will they look to slash expenses in advanced of a sale?

The core that took the Royals to back-to-back World Series just a few years ago is on track to get one last crack at postseason glory in 2017, but I have a hard time seeing it work. Payroll has exploded in Kansas City but win totals have dropped, meaning that big extensions aren't coming for Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer. I suspect that the club will keep one of that trio, but probably not two and definitely not three. Their rotation looks poor and possibly quite bad following the tragic death of Yordano Ventura, and their once-heralded bullpen looks increasingly like Kelvin Herrera, Joakim Soria, and a prayer for afternoon showers. The farm system is a disaster. Kansas City will need huge years from Jorge Soler and Raul Mondesi to have a real shot at a .500 season. It's not happening.

In full disclosure, while preparing this piece, I expected to find the Twins' farm system stronger than it is. Nick Gordon and Tyler Jay both look like big-time pieces for the long haul, but neither should help much -- if at all -- in 2017. Accordingly, even though I'm expecting solid jumps from Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, the Twins will likely saunter through another ho-hum season this year, selling off Hector Santiago and some bullpen pieces at the deadline as they look to compete in 2018 behind a Buxton-Sano-Dozier core. I still don't see it and it leaves me curious as to what the roster might look like when this team is good again.

Finally, we have a festival in Chicago: Tankapalooza: 2017. Get ready for stories about how Yoan Moncada is working on his defense and how Michael Kopech's and Lucas Giolito's secondaries need just a little more fine tuning. The Sox are looking to lose in 2017, and the only things standing in the way of such a plan are (1) Jose Quintana, (2) Todd Frazier, and, to a lesser extent, (3) David Robertson. Plan your trades accordingly. The core of the next south side contender is already in-house, but expect the Sox to keep most of those stud prospects in the minors and tank so they can add a top-three pick in the 2018 draft to the stockpile.

American League Central
Boston (93-69)
Toronto (86-76)
Tampa Bay (80-82)
New York (78-84)
Baltimore (74-88)

One of the reasons you can never have too much of a good thing: sometimes David Price's elbow goes "owwww." Boston should still be fine in spite of that injury, but the rotation depth that looked elite now looks more like it is really good. It feels a little strange to see the likes of Sandy Leon and Mitch Moreland get some many PAs for a 93-win team, but that's where the new Killer Bs come in: Betts, Benintendi, and Bogaerts (and possibly Bradley, too). We'll see you in October, Chris Sale.

The Blue Jays are in a weird spot, trying to eek one more year out of an aging position player core. The rotation, conversely, is spearheaded by young guns Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, two of baseball's best young arms. The bullpen is too with anchor Roberto Osuna. Alas, can Russell Martin, Devon Travis, Kendrys Morales, and Justin Smoak do enough to help the Donaldson-Tulowitzki-Pillar-Bautista core make one more run? I say yes...but barely.

The Rays are sneaky solid with lots of good rotation options and an offense capable of supporting some defensive stars. However, the arms come with gobs of injury concerns and the offense lacks much in the way of ceiling, rendering an overall ceiling around .500. I think that they'll get surprisingly close to that, but they won't be close enough in late July to justify standing pat or even adding. Their balance sheet is remarkably clean, however, and it facilitated strong moves to sign Wilson Ramos and Derek Norris as well as extend Kevin Kiermaier on a wildly team-friendly deal.

Ah, the Yankees. How weird it is to stick them down here again. This is where they've chosen to live by accumulating an entire cadre of below-average position players, save for Gary Sanchez. The rotation offers some strength at the top with Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda, but the depth comes with mediocre ceilings unless Luis Severino surprises. The Chapman-Betances door-slamming operation will make 8th inning leads hold up, but will there be enough of those? Nah.

I never understand why the Orioles win, nor do I see it coming. I won't be fooled again in 2017...because the Orioles won't win. Manny Machado is an elite, super-duper star, but every other position player, despite being roughly average, comes with serious warts. And the starting pitching is a grab bag. I just don't see it.

National League West
Los Angeles (96-66)
San Francisco (91-71)
Colorado (84-78)
Arizona (79-83)
San Diego (59-103)

The Dodgers rotation is hilarious. They have baseball's best pitcher (Kershaw) and one of its best young arms (Julio Urias) followed by six versions of Rich Hill: great pitchers when they're healthy...who are rarely healthy. I, for one, love that approach to building a rotation. If everyone happens to be healthy, that's spectacular! If half of them are hurt, you've got a great five-man rotation! If more than three are hurt, oh well, fill in the gaps. The bullpen has my favorite reliever (Kenley Jansen) followed by a couple of interesting arms with more depth than last year. They may need a boost still. The offense is similarly funny with 15 starting position players for eight jobs. They're floor is absurdly high.

Speaking of high floors: the Giants are above-average at almost every spot, save for left field, they've got two aces, a couple of nice mid-rotation arms, and just three plus relievers following the elbow injury to Will Smith. They can absorb an injury or two, though not as many as the Dodgers (no team can). The farm system is very poor, but for a team that likely only needs to add a starting pitcher, what do you know: two of their top prospects, Tyler Beede and Ty Blach, are MLB-ready and are starting pitchers. Some teams get all of the luck (and/or plan very well).

Like so many other baseball followers, I was befuddled by Colorado's acquisition of Ian Desmond considering the cash commitment he required as well as the loss of the draft's top unprotected pick at #11 overall. Unlike many others, I've long been wildly in favor of the Rockies' top prospects, so I appreciate making a splashy move now to attempt to fill a glaring hole. I suspect that, once he returns from injury, Desmond will play a superb defensive first base while offering roughly average offense at the spot. That's a pretty nifty player and the flexibility of a starting first baseman who doubles as a backup middle infielder is, if nothing else, novel. The pitching staff is thin for my taste, but I've long adored Jon Gray and see him emerging as an ace either this year or next. I've never liked Jeff Hoffman all that much, but the skills are there for him to be a mid-rotation arm. His development will be crucial this year. The Colorado bullpen has a chance to be superb, but the risk is extreme with the two biggest pieces, Greg Holland and Jake McGee. If both produce and Adam Ottavino and Carlos Estevez do as well, the Rox could surprise. It's not hard to see Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and David Dahl forming the core of a contender, especially flanked by in-prime bats like Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, and Desmond. Catching remains a problem spot, but there's plenty in the pipeline to swing a big deal for a mercenary like Jonathan Lucroy.

The Diamondbacks find themselves with a handful of star players in Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Zack Greinke, and Robbie Ray. They also have a quintet of intriguing young starters in Archie Bradley, Taijuan Walker, Shelby Miller, Braden Shipley, and Patrick Corbin, any of whom could wonderfully fill out their rotation wonderfully well. Unfortunately for Arizona, they also have a horrendous bullpen, subpar catching, a terrible middle infield, and possibly the worst left field situation in all of baseball. I really adore that rotation and it could be elite. But it could just as easily hover around average. The farm is entirely bereft of impact talent. I don't know how they've done it, but the D-Backs have managed to combine a handful of stars and an impact rotation yet still come away with a mediocre team. Incredible.

And then the tankers. The Padres have taken a creative approach to tanking this year, combining a strong bullpen with a bunch of interesting position players, plenty of whom come with upside, with an unabashedly horrific rotation. They're going to lose a ton this year and next with an eye on improving in 2019 and winning a lot in 2020 around a position player core of Wil Myers, Austin Hedges, Manny Margot, and Hunter Renfroe supporting a strong rotation headlined by Cal Quantrill, Anderson Espinoza, Jacob Nix, and Adrian Morejon, in addition to whoever they add in the coming drafts.

National League Central
Chicago (98-64)
St. Louis (88-74)
Pittsburgh (85-77)
Cincinnati (66-96)
Milwaukee (63-99)

I don't care that the Cubs were remarkably healthy last year with their pitching. And I don't care that it's tough to repeat. The Cubs have one lineup spot that figures to be below-average -- center field, as fueled part by the misguided signing of Jon Jay given the presence of Albert Almora and Matt Szczur -- surrounded by seven spots that range from above-average to elite. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Addison Russell will all get MVP votes in 2017 just like they did in 2016. Kyle Schwarber may get some, too, even though his defense will knock his value down a notch or two. Jason Heyward's glove will keep him strong with offensive contributions being a bonus. And then there's Javy. The Cubs remain loaded offensively and defensively. The rotation features similar depth to that of last year's club, but it's tough to imagine the health working out as well. No matter. Between Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey, Montgomery, Anderson, and Butler, I'm confident that the Cubs will have a tremendous starting staff all year. The bullpen looks to be even better than last year with Wade Davis an elite arm (elbow warning bells) and the gaggle of Rondon, Uehara, Edwards, Strop, and Grimm all looking tough alongside Davis. If Brian Duensing shows anything, great! If not, expect Theo to shop in July and to finally pry Sean Doolittle out of Oakland. Add in Joe Maddon and Chris Bosio, and 2017 should be another long year in Chicago, again for the right reasons. Improvement from Almora's bat would be a huge boon to the squad as would Ian Happ or Jeimer Candelario forcing their way into the lineup. But that's all gravy.

The Cardinals are tricky. They're within a stone's throw of average at just about every position group, but their bullpen looks tremendous and their starting rotation has the ability to be excellent depending on health and the contributions from Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, and/or Luke Weaver. The loss of Alex Reyes was a huge blow as only Reyes and outfielder Harrison Bader had real chances of making noise from the farm for the 2017 club. Still, there's the potential for an excellent defensive infield and plenty of runs to win lots of games.

Pittsburgh is stuck in purgatory as they await the ascension of the likes of Josh Bell, Tyler Glasnow, and Austin Meadows, core players yet to establish themselves as such in the Majors. There's plenty of talent on board to have a great team, but the ceiling is low in the infield -- particularly with Jung Ho Kang's status up in the air -- and while the addition of Daniel Hudson was a real plus, the loss of Mark Melancon was a real minus, too.

The chasm between the top three teams in the division and the bottom two remains as wide as ever. I'd feel bad for Joey Votto if he wasn't making $225M. The Reds have Votto, a handful of average regulars, and a pile of scrubs. That's no way to win. To make matters worse, the farm is wobbly with some upside, not exactly the dream of a team buried at the bottom of the standings.

The Brewers have an enviable farm and an evaporated salary sheet, but that's because they're awful. And they're going to be especially awful in 2017, a statement that will be even more true if they ship out Ryan Braun. The core of a contender is here, but it's primarily living in the mid-minors, waiting for 2019 or so.

National League East
New York (97-65)
Washington (90-72)
Miami (81-81)
Philadelphia (76-86)
Atlanta (72-90)

The Mets pitching is the type that front offices dream about when trying to build a contender. With Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, and Robert Gsellmann, they'll have baseball's finest top-four in 2017. Between Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Seth Lugo, they'll have baseball's best fifth starter and depth arm. The bullpen of Familia-Reed-Robles-Salas-Blevins will be enough and will be strengthened by a deadline reinforcement. The position players are more confusing with the likes of d'Arnaud and Conforto offering tantalizing ceilings, Duda, Granderson, Walker, and Cabrera playing average ball, Cespedes offering star power, and third base looking potentially bad. My expectation at third? It's manned by Asdrubal Cabrera...once Amed Rosario gets promoted at the end of April. Rosario, Cespedes, and elite pitching lead the way.

The Nationals are nothing to slough at. On paper, they look a bit better than the Mets. In real life? Left field and first base are both dreadful at this point, and despite the front office's best efforts, the bullpen holes weren't plugged. The Nats emptied out the farm to get Adam Eaton, a completely defensible move that has them on the outside looking in for the midsummer trade market. They're going to be good, but this team could slide.

The Marlins continue to occupy the middle space between the division's elite squads and its bottomfeeders. The story is the same as it always is: elite outfield, solid infield, and an awful rotation. The rotation would be poor even with Jose Fernandez, but following his tragic death, it needs an overhaul. The farm remains rather poor.

The future isn't quite now in Philadelphia but it's getting closer and doing so quickly. J.P. Crawford, Odubel Herrera, Jorge Alfaro, Maikel Franco, and Nick Williams figure to form the next position player core in Philly and they'll all play in the Majors this year. Similarly, the next contending rotation figures to be anchored by Vincent Velasquez, Aaron Nola, and Jerad Eickhoff, all of whom are present. The bullpen looks below average and the problems in left field and possibly first base don't look great. Still, there's a good bit to dream on here for Phillies fans and I'd expect notable progress in 2017.

In spite of their confounding deals for Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips, the future is also bright in Atlanta and that future is starting to arrive. Dansby Swanson is ready, Ozzie Albies and Sean Newcomb aren't far behind, and the cavalry is ready to start rolling in by late-2018. The rotation picked up some nice, flippable bridge arms that should make Atlanta a more attractive spot to free agents in subsequent winters as a below-average team instead of an awful one, and both Colon and Dickey figure to turn into useful prospects by late summer.

Wild Card Play-In Game
Toronto over Seattle

Wild Card Games
Detroit over Toronto
Washington over San Francisco

Division Series
Cleveland over Detroit
Boston over Houston
Chicago Cubs over Washington
New York Mets over Los Angeles

Championship Series
Cleveland over Boston
New York Mets over Chicago Cubs

World Series
New York Mets over Cleveland

I'm still a sucker for that Mets pitching. Apologies to Cleveland once again.

Awards

MVP
AL: OF Mookie Betts
NL: 3B Kris Bryant

Cy Young
AL: SP Corey Kluber
NL: SP Clayton Kershaw

Rookie of the Year
AL: OF Andrew Benintendi
NL: SS Dansby Swanson

Manager of the Year
AL: A.J. Hinch
NL: Terry Collins

Monday, March 13, 2017

NCAA Tournament Seeds: Do the Metrics Agree with the Committee?

I've been having a pleasant Monday discussion with some friends on Facebook about where the Committee appears to have properly seeded teams (Iowa State) versus where the seeds appear to be way off (Wisconsin, Minnesota).

Of course, my mind ran with the idea and I ended up with this thought: let's see how three major ratings indices evaluate the work of the Committee. I'm going to look at (1) RPI, (2) Ken Pomeroy's ratings, and (3) Jeff Sagarin's ratings to see where the Committee lined up well with the metrics and where it appears to have missed. I'll group the results by how close (or not) the Committee got the seeds compared to what the metrics say.

For the purposes of this article, I'm not going to examine the 13-16 seeds as they would be the bottom 16 teams in the Tournament regardless of who qualifies ahead of them. I will include automatic-bid Nevada and Middle Tennessee State as both schools made the 12 line for consistency's sake.

The beauty of 2017 is that the selection Committee releases a full list of seeds from 1-68 so we don't have to speculate on exactly how close a particular 7 and 8 seed are: the Committee has already told us.

In the end, I examined the placement at every team that showed up in the top-60 of at least one of the three rankings considered. Here are the findings with the team's actual seed listed first and its expected seed listed second (except for those seeds predicted correctly).

CORRECTLY SEEDED (9)
Teams: Villanova (1), North Carolina (1), Gonzaga (1), Louisville (2), Purdue (4), Iowa State (5), Marquette (10), Nevada (12), Middle Tennessee State (12)

MISSED BY ONE (18)
Teams: Kansas (1 - 2), Kentucky (2 - 1), Duke (2 - 3), Oregon (3 - 4), Baylor (3 - 4), Florida (4 - 3), West Virginia (4 - 3), Notre Dame (5 - 6), Cincinnati (6 - 5), Creighton (6 - 7), Michigan (7 - 6), Wisconsin (8 - 7), Miami (8 - 9), Arkansas (8 - 9), Vanderbilt (9 - 10), VCU (10 - 11), Rhode Island (11 - 10), USC (12 - #1 NIT)

MISSED BY TWO (14)
Teams: Arizona (2 - 4), Florida State (3 - 5), UCLA (3 - 5), Butler (4 - 6), Virginia (5 - 3), SMU (6 - 4), St. Mary's (7 - 5), South Carolina (7 - 9), Dayton (7 - 9), Michigan State (9 - 11), Oklahoma State (10 - 8), Xavier (11 - 9), Wake Forest (11 - 9), Kansas State (12 - 10)

MISSED BY THREE (3)
Teams: Minnesota (5 - 8), Northwestern (8 - 11), Virginia Tech (9 - 12)

MISSED BY FOUR (3)
Teams: Maryland (6 - 10), Seton Hall (9 - #1 NIT), Providence (11 - #3 NIT)

MISSED BY FIVE (1)
Teams: Wichita State (10 - 5)

When I look at this list, I'm struck by just how many clubs fall into the last four groups, suggesting a rather significant seeding miss by the committee. In particular, it appears as though the committee has significantly overseeded the Rose Bowl conferences, the Pac 12 and the Big Ten. Seeing four of the Big Ten's contingent be overseeded by an average of three seeds apiece is alarming, suggesting that the conference's teams may not be nearly as strong as the committee has insinuated.

There are a couple of nuggets that I'd like to point out having compiled this research, as follows:

1. RPI loves Arizona (2), but KenPom (20) and Sagarin (18) both see the 'Cats as a 5. Yikes.

2. The Committee has a lot of love for Butler, ranking them as the top #4 seed. RPI (15) saw the Bulldogs as a solid 4, but both KenPom and Sagarin (26 each) saw them as a solid #7.

3. RPI (18) and the Committee (#5 seed) gave Virginia a raw deal. The Hoos should have been on the 2/3 border according to KenPom (7) and Sagarin (9).

4. What in the world happened with Maryland? The Committee gave the Terps a 5 seed, but RPI (34), KenPom (45), and Sagarin (42) all saw them as much more of a bubble team.

5. RPI killed Wisconsin, suggesting a 9 seed for the Badgers. The Committee gave them an 8, but KenPom (23) had them as a 6 and Sagarin (17) gave them the top 5 seed.

6. Wichita State is tough to stomach. RPI wasn't a fan (32), though even RPI gave the Shockers an 8 seed, but KenPom (8) had them as a 2 seed (!) while Sagarin (11) gave them a 3. Sitting on the 10 line is brutal and borderline inexplicable.

7. Not sure what the Committee saw in Providence. All three systems had the Friars between 56th and 58th, yet the Committee gave them the #42 overall seed instead of sticking them in the middle of the NIT field.

8. The rawest deal yesterday of any team in America? Texas Tech. KenPom and Sagarin both had the Red Raiders at #46 -- equivalent to a trip to the First Four as a #12 seed in the NCAA Tournament -- but RPI had them at 123rd. Their result? No postseason at all (not even the NIT).

9. Both Illinois State and Clemson should have made the Tournament as First Four participants, though their status as two of the top-eight seeds in the NIT suggests that they were more or less properly seeded.

10. A team to watch: UNC-Wilmington. The metrics suggest that, even if conference championships weren't used to determine automatic bids to the Tournament, UNCW would have ended up on the 13 line.

11. Tough misses for Georgia, Cal, and Houston. All three squads rated no worse than 58th in any metric yet none came in higher than 49th in any service. They lived on the wrong side of the bubble. Like Illinois State and Clemson, all three are top-eight clubs in the NIT.

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Hot-Take Grades of the Bears' Moves in Free Agency in 2017

Free agency day in the NFL is one of my favorite days. In his two forays into free agency as Bears' GM, Ryan Pace has enjoyed a couple of banner days, bringing in oft-injured stud Pernell McPhee on a relatively low-risk deal and corner Tracy Porter in his first offseason and adding stud defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebacking duo Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman last year. Of course, a couple of his additions are reminders that free agency, like the draft, is littered with imperfection: Eddie Royal was a bust and Bobby Massie looked like one too before recovering somewhat down the stretch. Royal will move on shortly and Massie may follow him out the door.

Armed with a bevy of salary cap space -- approximately $77.6M assuming that Jay Cutler, Royal, Massie, and Lamarr Houston all get the axe -- Pace heads into his most important free agency period today.

With that backdrop, I'll offer up thoughts on each move (or non-move) as it occurs, timestamping each post.

*****An important reminder: I don't inflate grades, so a "C" is an average grade, not a B+/A- like it is at most colleges.

(3/9/17 @ 11:02am)

Bears Elect Not to Use the Franchise Tag on WR Alshon Jeffery

Grade: F

Analysis: This is a no-brainer. A team with an asset deficiency cannot afford to give away assets for free. If the Bears have decided that Jeffery is not a part of the future for whatever reason -- be it his injury history or otherwise -- so be it. But allowing him to leave without compensation is an irresponsible waste of an asset. The Bears could have tagged Jeffery and traded him for a mid-round draft pick. The Bears have found Bernard Berrian in the third round and Johnny Knox in the fifth round, turning mediocre picks into core contributors.

While it's still possible that Jeffery does re-sign with the club, the front office took an unjustifiable risk in failing to tag him. That should be unacceptable.

(4:15pm update: With Jeffery off to Philadelphia for $14M on a one-year deal, the Bears' decision to let him walk looks even worse. The club only needed to pay a $3M premium to control the premium talent. Inexcusable.)

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(3/9/17 @ 11:28am)

Bears Reportedly Sign QB Mike Glennon

Grade: B-

Analysis: I know that most of the football world is shocked by the number that the Bears gave Glennon; I'll reserve full judgment on the specifics of the financials until they are released. For now, I'll assume that Glennon got something like $9M as a signing bonus with base salaries of $5M, $13M, and $18M.

In my eyes, considering the options available and the assets on hand, Glennon is a strong addition. I honestly would have preferred a fourth year on the deal so that the Bears buy a little additional upside.

In one sense, Glennon looks like a stop-gap, just like Brian Hoyer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Colin Kaepernick. On the other hand, those other three quarterbacks have had multi-year runs as starters and proved themselves to be strong backups but underqualified #1s. Glennon hasn't had that chance yet, only getting something like a full year as a rookie on a dreadful team with a porous offensive line.

Glennon comes with a sliver of a hope of being good enough to play well enough in January to give his team a chance to win. Neither Hoyer nor Fitzpatrick offered that and Kaepernick comes with his own set of questions given his wildly inconsistent play over the last couple of years.

As for the money, the Bears have oodles of cap space but little in the way of young talent or excess draft picks. Accordingly, using cash to fill holes is the way to go. I like that the club avoided surrendering other assets to fill the QB spot, even though they easily could have used some package of picks to grab Jimmy Garoppolo from New England. The grade here isn't perfect given that they appear to have bid against themselves to secure Glennon -- a classic Yankees move that I've long pilloried -- but after all, it's just cash and cap space in years where those both are aplenty.

In my ideal scenario, the Bears would sign a QB to start in 2017 and perhaps 2018 while drafting DeShone Kizer after trading down from #3. We're halfway there.

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(3/9/17 @ 1:07pm)

Bears Reportedly Sign S Quintin Demps

Grade: C+

Analysis: This is a tricky grade for me.

On the one hand, Demps plays a position of dire need for the franchise, he comes at a very reasonable cost (reportedly $13.5M over three years), and he costs only cash and cap space. Demps bounced around the league for a few years before finally settling in as a starter in Houston and producing a very successful 2016 season as a follow-up to a strong 2015.

On the other hand, Demps was a free agent into mid-April this past year and he signed a measly one-year deal for $1.5M. When a player who was available for peanuts 11 months ago gets a reasonably significant financial commitment as Demps does here, it evinces a failure in the scouting department to effectively find the talented player despite having a full year of game tape on him.

One additional nugget of note: if signing Demps helps the Bears grab talented young corner A.J. Bouye, this move will get an A.

Kudos to Pace for grabbing a good player at a big position of need. But the drawback of missing this evaluation last year is real.

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(3/9/17 @ 1:35pm)

Bears Release QB Jay Cutler

Grade: C
Analysis: Duh.

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(3/9/17 @ 3:02pm)

Bears Reportedly Sign TE Dion Sims

Grade: B
Analysis: While I haven't seen any terms yet on Sims, I'm assuming that he got a two- or three-year deal in the neighborhood of $4M per year, based on my own estimation.

Sims is an NLF-caliber tight end. While he's not a starting option on a contender, he's a very strong #2 and he's very reliable, having played at least 13 games in each of his four seasons. With Zach Miller the opposite of dependability, Sims makes a lot of sense, particularly because he gets solid marks for his blocking.

Sims doesn't get a perfect grade here because he has never been a featured member of a passing offense, so there's some question of his ultimate ceiling as a pass catcher.

In spite of that, I'm biased in his favor having seen Sims at Orchard Lake St. Mary's high school and Michigan State. In a Bears offense light on playmakers -- contrasted with a Dolphins offense brimming with big-play threats -- Sims should get a chance to feature himself a bit more as a receiver.

(3/10/17 @ 9:45am update: Sims grabbed a bit more cash than I expected, nabbing an AAV of $6M instead of $4M. Perhaps that drops the grade to a B- but it doesn't much impact my thoughts here.)

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(3/9/17 @ 4:21pm)

Bears Reportedly Fail to Sign Any of CBs A.J. Bouye, Trumaine Johnson (franchised by Rams), Stephon Gilmore, or Dre Kirkpatrick

Grade: Incomplete (F thus far)
Analysis: Logan Ryan, Prince Amukamara, and Morris Claiborne remain unsigned, though Claiborne would be an alarming addition given that he has only ever produced in his contract year.

A team with a desperate talent deficiency at cornerback and oodles of salary cap space is sitting out the elite portion of the market.

It's a signal that the front office expects 2017 to be a very long year.

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(3/10/17 @ 9:49am)

Bears Reportedly Sign WR Markus Wheaton

Grade: C
Analysis: It's difficult to grade this acquisition without knowing the contract terms, but given Wheaton's injury-destroyed 2016 season, it's tough to imagine that this is anything more than a glorified one-year deal at something like $3M (the deal was announced as a two-year contract).

Assuming that's the neighborhood, this is a good risk for the Bears to take. They can afford to give Wheaton every-down snaps to see if he's anything more than the #3 he showed himself to be in Pittsburgh. Wheaton comes with a strong pedigree and good athleticism as well.

Despite the grade, this move does little to move the needle in the receivers room.

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(3/10/17 @ 2:07pm)

Bears Reportedly Sign CB Prince Amukamara

Grade: D
Analysis: This is a strange grade, I know.

Amukamara was on the list of no-doubt starting-caliber cornerbacks that the Bears should have considered this week. Signing him is a huge improvement to the position group.

Why a D? A few reasons. First, Amukamara is signing a one-year deal, his second straight. His signing doesn't add a core piece to the position. Second, although Amukamara is an impressively talented band-aid, he comes with injury issues, having averaged 11.5 games per season over his six-year career. Third, although he made my list of target cornerbacks, Amukamara is arguably the weakest member of this year's strong group of free agent cornerbacks (along with Morris Claiborne).

His signing continues the trend of Ryan Pace whiffing on using his cap space and free agent dollars to find core pieces. Yes, it's true that most of those core pieces should come via the draft, but especially for a team rich in cap space but poor in assets, some of the core players need to come via expensive March deals. Amukamara does not fit that bill.

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(3/10/17 @ 2:12pm)

Bears Reportedly Sign K Connor Barth

Grade: F
Analysis: There's absolutely no sense in throwing guaranteed dollars -- any guaranteed dollars -- at Barth. He was available last season at the end of the preseason (in early September) and he hardly proved himself to be a valuable asset at kicker.

There's no sense in using guaranteed dollars for a replacement-level player.

I expect that the Bears will have an open competition at kicker this summer/fall with that hope that a younger, non-Barth kicker wins the job. In that instance, the club will cut Barth, taking only a $115,000 cap hit in the process. But that cap hit is $115,000 more than it should be.

A wasteful transaction.

Memorializing the Tweetstorm in Advance of 2017 Bears Free Agency

After throwing a whole bunch of thoughts up on Twitter, I remembered that I prefer to use the blog so I can have a record. So here we are!