The Bears aren't going to win a lot in 2017. Bummer. Accordingly, this preview won't be loaded with the regular excitement and joy of previous years. Let's hit the facts.
Here's the schedule:
Atlanta
@ Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh
@ Green Bay
Minnesota
@ Baltimore
Carolina
@ New Orleans
-----BYE-----
Green Bay
Detroit
@ Philadelphia
San Francisco
@ Cincinnati
@ Detroit
Cleveland
@ Minnesota
Each of the Bears' first seven opponents sports an over/under of at least 8.5 wins this year, indiciating that Vegas expects each team to be a bit better than .500. The team's first opponent with an over/under south of .500? The 49ers...on December 3rd! The only other such club on the schedule are the woeful Browns meaning that the Bears face only two of the 10 NFL teams projected to be under .500. That doesn't bode well. The Bears will likely be 1-7 or 2-6 entering their early November bye week.
Special Teams
Pat O'Donnell gets dinged for his net punting average, but I thought he looked good last year. Patrick Scales remains a standard NFL long snapper. The return game should be below average with Deonte Thompson fighting for a roster spot and no particularly attractive obvious alternative.
The real intrigue in this area of the roster is at the kicking spot. The Bears got extraordinarily lucky when the Bucs pulled the plug on Roberto Aguayo, giving the Bears a crack at a premium leg for the cost of a waiver claim. It's possible that Aguayo further implodes in the preseason and the club eats a few hundred grand for their trouble, but it's far more likely that Aguayo's ability dwarfs that of Connor Barth, scoring Aguayo a roster spot and giving the Bears a plus kickoff man, regardless of his accuracy on placekicks. It's worth remembering that, while Aguayo missed nine field goals last year as a rookie, he missed a total of nine field goals over three years at Florida State. There's plenty of reasons for hope about his accuracy.
Combine that hope with the fact that Aguayo is a substantially more reliable kickoff man than the kicker he figures to replace (again) in Connor Barth -- Aguayo's kickoff rate as a rookie was 65.8% compared to 45.3% for Barth in the last two years -- and it's easy to see why Ryan Pace decided to take a $94,208 hit against the cap (the difference between Barth's cap hit and the combined hit of Aguayo and Barth's dead money) to make the switch.
Offense
Last year's offense was underwhelming but not without a few signs of encouragement. Cody Whitehair was a revelation at center. Jordan Howard emerged as a true feature back. Cameron Meredith leaped from afterthought to starter. Josh Sitton proved to be the best type of scrapheap acquisition, immediately filling a position of need. Even Bobby Massie played demonstrably better after a harrowing first six or so games, reaching the point where he looked like a plausibly playable tackle.
Unfortunately, many of the problems with last year's offense remain. The quarterback position lacks a bona fide NFL starter in 2017, even if Mike Glennon has the ability to play decent football and Mitch Trubisky has the skills to become a real player in the coming years. The tight end group is shaky for this year, even though I loved Adam Shaheen before the draft, Dion Sims was a reasonable addition given his blocking prowess, and we all know about Zach Miller's ability when he is on the field. Most alarmingly, Charles Leno, Jr. remains the left tackle, one of the worst in the league.
Add in that the receiving corps is comprised primarily of castoffs -- outside of Kevin White, the club has just $750,000 of dead space on next year's cap from the entire position group, suggesting that the unit is entirely comprised of glorified one-year deals -- and without elite quarterback play, castoff receivers won't cut it.
Don't get me wrong. I liked the contracts for Kendall Wright and Victor Cruz. They're appropriate risks for a team going nowhere this season. But neither should move the needle in a particularly meaningful way.
Of course, it's the NFL, so much of the club's success hinges on the arm and shoulder of Glennon. I like that the Glennon deal is also a glorified one-year pact, even if the club threw an outrageous amount of money at him in a marketplace that wasn't going to pay him otherwise. Glennon will probably peak as a below-average starter/solid backup. There's plenty of reason to see what the team has in him.
Trubisky, on the other hand, better have a ceiling much higher than that. I like Trubisky's arm. I like his athleticism. I'm not terribly concerned that he didn't start more than 13 games in college. The Bears bought his next five years, not the last four. Nevertheless, the track record of rookie quarterbacks on bad teams is exactly what you'd expect. I hope that the Bears sit Trubisky for most of the season in large part because I don't want the ineptitude at offensive tackle to get him injured. I fully expect the Bears to either select a left tackle high in next year's draft or to throw a truckload of money at Nate Solder to buy him out of a career in New England. Either move should make Trubisky much more comfortable in the pocket and keep him upright.
(None of the above paragraph should be read as an endorsement of the absurd trade that the Bears made to acquire Trubisky. That trade still reeks.)
Some other quick notes before we move on to the defense:
- Tarik Cohen seemed like a reach in the fourth round, but it should be fun watching him evade tackles in the open field. Here's hoping his diminutive body holds up.
- I liked the Daniel Braverman pick in 2016, but it's tough to see him sticking on the roster with Markus Wheaton, White, Wright, and Meredith all firmly ahead of him, Cruz looking solid, Thompson bringing real special teams value, and with Josh Bellamy also around...and that's before we even mention camp MVP Tanner Gentry.
- Eric Kush's injury should open the door for Jordan Morgan to have a real shot at making the 53-man roster. It also gives Hroniss Grasu a real chance to get back on the field and show that he deserved to be a third round pick.
- At this time last year, Jeremy Langford was the starter at running back. This year, he's injured yet battling Benny Cunningham for a roster spot alongside Howard, Cohen, and core special teamer Ka'Deem Carey. Wow.
Overall, despite the presence of promising players like Trubisky, Shaheen, and White as well as above-average regulars in Long (even with his wobbly shoulder), Sitton, Whitehair, and Howard, the Bears offense should be a bottom quartile unit leaguewide. Of particular concern is that the club won't have the ability to erase deficits in 2017 given a sub-standard passing attack. That dooms the season before it even gets started.
Defense
If the Bears are going to be even close to an average team in 2017, it'll be due to the play of the defense, particularly in the front seven. That said, the offseason improvements in the secondary figure to play the largest role in raising the floor for the team.
Last year, I called the cornerback group a "nightmare," stating that the combination of mediocrity atop the depth chart plus no depth would likely yield disastrous results. As it turned out, this was right on the money. Despite the fact that Adrian Amos graded out as a nearly perfectly average starting NFL safety and Harold Jones-Quartey proved adequate in an increased role, the secondary as a whole graded 30th of 32 teams according to Pro Football Focus. The cornerbacks scuttled the party.
Ryan Pace acknowledged what was obvious to everyone and, after striking out on gaudier targets like A.J. Bouye and Stephon Gillmore, spent a pretty penny to bring in Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper to take over the starting jobs. I like the Amukamara deal, though I wish it was a multi-year pact. I don't like the Cooper deal -- he's not nearly as good. Behind them, Kyle Fuller (for now), special teams ace Sherrick McManis, and former part-time starters Cre'von LeBlanc and Bryce Callahan provide some depth, though it is still of the low-ceiling variety. Despite the assets thrown at the position this offseason, it figures to be no better than average. To be fair, that would be a massive upgrade compared to the 2016 unit.
The safety position, on the other hand, should finally be a real strength of the team with viable starters and excellent depth. The signing of Quintin Demps provides what should be one good starter. Unfortunately, both Demps and the aforementioned Amos are better fits at strong safety, leaving an opening at free safety. Thankfully, 2017 4th rounder Eddie Jackson, converted 2016 5th rounder Deiondre' Hall, 2016 4th rounder Deon Bush, and Jones-Quartey should all get a crack at the job (sorry 2016 6th rounder DeAndre Houston-Carson -- the cupboard looks awfully full already). I expect that one player in this group will find his way to the practice squad or injured reserve, leaving the other three to fight things out. I really liked Bush at this time last year but he looked lost routinely last year. Perhaps an extra year of prep and film study will help him. Hall, on the other hand, has impressed and brings the value of NFL experience at corner as well. He should stick, likely leaving two spots for Jackson, Bush, and Jones-Quartey.
Elsewhere on defense, the team looks to be in genuinely good shape.
The inside linebacking group is once again comprised of two above-average starters in Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman with 2016 4th rounder Nick Kwiatkoski looking like an excellent third option at this stage. Trevathan deserves immense credit for working his way back from a patellar tendon tear well ahead of schedule.
Although Trevathan's recovery is the big surprise for the position group, the play of Christian Jones bears monitoring. He has created tremendous buzz in camp this year, and factoring in his special teams abilities, he should stick as a fourth inside linebacker.
The changing of the guard at outside linebacker continues this year with Leonard Floyd ascending the depth chart with a massive camp showing. After putting on only five pounds in four years, Floyd finally packed on the weight. Floyd spent most of college at about 230 pounds and, despite some Combine weight gain, dropped all the way to 225 pounds as a rookie. It's not tough to speculate that his stature contributed to his concussions as a 6-6 player at 225 pounds stands no chance of absorbing a clean punch from an NFL offensive lineman. In camp, however, Floyd is pushing 250 pounds. Even if he sheds some weight during the season, he figures to stick at an acceptable playing weight and presuming that it doesn't sap him of his explosiveness, Floyd has a chance to be a breakout star in 2017.
Pernell McPhee's knee is hurt (the other one this time), but when he's on the field, he's still an impact player. Willie Young is a solid second option and a great third one. Lamarr Houston's roster chances figure to correlate closely with McPhee's recovery. I expect that the Bears will spend a top pick on a pass rusher again next year given the age of Floyd's compatriots, but there should be a good bookend starter to be found among this group.
After adding to the defensive line every year for seemingly forever, the franchise largely ignored the group this spring. The rationale makes enough sense: Akiem Hicks broke out in 2016 and both Jonathan Bullard and Mitch Unrein can lay a viable claim to the starting gig on the other side of the line. Add in the Jaye Howard looked like a cornerstone piece in Kansas City in 2015 before flopping last year and a fifth defensive end seems unnecessary.
At the nose, Eddie Goldman remains absolutely essential to the team's success. If Goldman gets hurt again, John Jenkins (all 359 pounds of him) and C.J. Wilson won't be able to pick up the slack, even though Jenkins represents a viable backup.
A few other quick thoughts:
- I didn't really understand Pace guaranteeing between $80,000 to each of Chris Prosinski and Johnthan Banks as well as $130,000 to Sam Acho. It sure seems like that'll be $290,000 flushed away in a couple of weeks.
- When healthy, Houston has been a good player. Here's hoping the knees hold up.
- I don't think Dan Skuta has any chance to make the roster, but who knows?
- I thought Bullard would be a force as a rookie given his explosiveness. Here's hoping I was just off by a year.
The Bears secondary should be below-average but in the third quartile among NFL squads. The front seven, on the other hand, has a chance to be a top-quartile unit, largely depending on (i) Floyd's eruption or lack thereof, and (ii) the health of the group. The floor should be an average defense, especially given the coaching acumen.
Prediction
Last year, I picked the percentage chance of winning each game. That was fun, even if it got the Bears to 7-9 instead of 3-13. Let's try again!
Atlanta 20%
@ Tampa Bay 20%
Pittsburgh 25%
@ Green Bay 10%
Minnesota 50%
@ Baltimore 25%
Carolina 35%
@ New Orleans 40%
-----BYE-----
Green Bay 25%
Detroit 45%
@ Philadelphia 10%
San Francisco 70%
@ Cincinnati 40%
@ Detroit 25%
Cleveland 65%
@ Minnesota 20%
My gut told me that the Bears would wind up somewhere between 2-14 and 5-11. Taking the numbers above, we get to........[calculates]........5.24 wins. So let's round down to 5-11.
If that's the case, John Fox will get fired. I'm not high on Fox by any stretch, but I'm
really not a fan of regime change as it's often a messy and time-consuming process to get a new regime up to speed. That's not fun as a fan.
There's enough talent on defense and with the rushing attack to win a lot of 16-13 games. That won't be particularly beautiful, but as anyone associated with sports can attest, winning beats the heck out of losing.
I can't see this team doing any better than 10-6 even if every single thing breaks their way and something more like 7-9 would be a real accomplishment.
I will say this: I'd rather see a 2-14 season than a 5-11 one. 5-11 gets the team a top-six draft pick. Cool! 2-14 gives them the rights to Sam Darnold and the opportunity to leverage that pick into a franchise-altering haul.
