After selecting Kevin White with the #7 overall pick last night - an eminently reasonable choice that I fully support - new Bears GM Ryan Pace gets to continue overhauling his roster with the #39 and #71 choices tonight. Where might he look with such picks?
Earlier in the offseason prior to the beginning of free agency, I suggested that the Bears had the following level of need for each position group:
Extreme: Wide Receiver, Nose Tackle, Outside Linebacker, Inside Linebacker
High: Offensive Tackle, Center, Defensive End, Cornerback, Safety
Medium: Quarterback, Tight End, Guard
Low: Running Back
None: Specialists
That list reflected more of the long-term needs of the team. For example, the roster was full of players capable of playing the 3-4 OLB spot including Jared Allen, Willie Young, Shea McClellin, Cornelius Washington, and perhaps Christian Jones. However, only McClellin truly figures to fit as a 3-4 rush end, and even Shea may struggle in that role now having dropped significant weight last year in his transition from 4-3 end to 4-3 OLB. Accordingly, the need for a true 3-4 OLB was extreme.
However, free agency has updated that picture. As a reminder, here are the Bears' moves in free agency thus far:
OLB Pernell McPhee (5 years, $38.75M, $8.5M guaranteed)
WR Eddie Royal (3 years, $15.0M, $10.0M guaranteed)
S Antrel Rolle (3 years, $11.25M, $4.9M guaranteed)
CB Alan Ball (1 year, $3.0M, $1.0M guaranteed)
DE Ray McDonald (1 year, $1.05M, $0 guaranteed)
C Will Montgomery (1 year, $0.95M, $0.2M guaranteed)
DE Jarvis Jenkins (1 year, $0.825M, $0.33M guaranteed)
ILB Mason Foster (1 year, $0.825M, $0.08M guaranteed)
G Vladimir Ducasse (1 year, $0.825M, $0.04M guaranteed)
OLB Sam Acho (1 year, $0.825M, $0.08M guaranteed)
RB Jacquizz Rodgers (1 year, $0.785M, $0.04M guaranteed)
Obviously the needs listed above are seriously impacted by those additions. With the selection of White last night and the free agents added over the course of the last two months, here is an updated look at the team needs:
Extreme: Nose Tackle
High: Offensive Tackle, Tight End, Inside Linebacker, Safety
Medium: Quarterback, Cornerback
Low: Running Back, Wide Receiver, Center, Guard, Defensive End, Outside Linebacker
None: Specialists
Well now, while this list may not be identical to that in the Bears draft room, I'm quite certain that the elephant in the room remains the gaping hole in the interior of the Bears' defense. While McDonald and Jenkins are only on one-year deals, the Bears have three returning players that figure to be good fits at the 3-4 end spot in Ego Ferguson, Lamarr Houston, and Jeremiah Ratliff. That trio should be able to provide good flexibility as all three have experience playing inside. While the outside positions on the roster have filled in nicely, the nose tackle spot is currently manned by....well, I'm not sure exactly. Last year's third-round-pick Will Sutton doesn't appear to be a particularly good fit at either spot, and none of the five listed above have the girth to fit inside.
Tight end has become a position of increasing need in light of Martellus Bennett's possible holdout. The position was already shallow behind Bennett to begin with, so any waffling on his status makes this a key concern. With Mason Foster and Jon Bostic currently penciled in as the starting inside linebackers, that position should be addressed. Ryan Mundy, Antrel Rolle, and Brock Vereen should form a competent trio of safeties, yet that position group is below average on paper and Rolle certainly isn't a spring chicken. Jordan Mills has graded as one of the worst starting tackles in the league each of the last two years and Jermon Bushrod has gotten older, making tackle a position that must be addressed as well. Finally, in the current NFL, a team can never have too many playable cornerbacks, a position at which the Bears currently lack.
Accordingly, the following players all fit the bill for the team with the #39 overall pick, starting with my favorite for the slot and finishing with my least favorite:
NT Jordan Phillips (Oklahoma)
ILB Benardrick McKinney (Mississippi St.)
OT Donovan Smith (Penn St.)
OT Jake Fisher (Oregon)
CB Jalen Collins (LSU)
NT Eddie Goldman (Florida St.)
TE Maxx Williams (Minnesota)
S Landon Collins (Alabama)
CB Ronald Darby (Florida St.)
ILB Eric Kendricks (UCLA)
OLB Randy Gregory (Nebraska)
RB T.J. Yeldon (Alabama)
Phillips is the best fit: a true 3-4 nose with plenty of good tape and projectability. He's the kind of risky, high-upside pick I like. McKinney has been on my radar since the end of the college season as a massive (6'4", 246 lbs.); he also needs a big step or two in his play recognition development, but the athleticism is there to be a star. Fisher profiles as a strong right tackle with an outside shot to shift over to the left side; even if he stays on the right side, he offers a chance for a serious upgrade to the current Bears line. On the other hand, Smith was a four-year starter on the left side for the Nittany Lions, and while he never dominated, he very rarely lost his matchups. Smith comes with the benefit of being an absolute monster at 6'6", 338 lbs. Collins has the kind of size I like in an ace corner (6'1", 205 lbs.) with plenty of speed to go with it, even if his game film was a bit disappointing. Finally, Goldman figures to fill the middle much like Phillips, though I'm not sure that the ceiling is as high.
I left a gap between the first six and the next six intentionally as the second sextet all left me wanting more. Williams is fast and agile, but he's not nearly as big as the massive tight ends I like to see at just 6'4", 245 lbs. Collins figures to be an asset in run defense but a potential liability in pass defense. Darby looks the part of a useful corner, but at 5'11", 193 lbs., he lacks ideal size. Kendricks is a seriously undersized linebacker with injury problems but strong tape. Gregory has top-ten skill and production, but a series of off-the-field concerns leading up to the draft caused him to plummet. I won't pretend to know everything that is going on, but if the concerns are severe enough that he made it out of the first round, I'm not sure that the risk is worthwhile at #39 overall. Finally, I love watching Yeldon, but the Bears don't need a running back this year, so I'd much rather wait for them to grab one when the need is more desperate at that position and there are fewer concerns elsewhere on the roster (translated: don't draft a running back until you absolutely have to!).
While the options at #39 overall are relatively easy to peg with only six picks coming off the board prior to the Bears' pick, the options at #71 are much more open. Obviously any of the players listed above would be extremely attractive options so far down on the board, but I'll be surprised if any of them are available. With that in mind, here are some names to look for at #71:
NT Carl Davis (Iowa)
OT Daryl Williams (Oklahoma)
OT Tyrus Thompson (Oklahoma)
CB Eric Rowe (Utah)
S Jaquiski Tartt (Samford)
TE Clive Walford (Miami)
LB Denzel Perryman (Miami)
CB Alex Carter (Stanford)
CB Quinten Rollins (Miami (OH))
CB P.J. Williams (Florida St.)
As above, there's a quintet that I like quite a bit and a quintet that would leave me satisfied but not thrilled.
Based on his production and physicality, Davis should have been a consideration at #39 above. However, Davis got a lot of bad press at the Combine and in its aftermath as teams were turned off by his attitude. His talent still makes him a worthwhile gamble, but I'd feel much better about him at #71 than at #39 given the concerns. He's entering a locker room in turmoil, not the solid structure of a place like New England or Baltimore.
Both Oklahoma tackles have the mauling size to be assets at either tackle spot while needing improvement in their pass blocking. That's hardly a deal-breaker with such good athletes in the third round.
Like Jalen Collins above, Rowe has the kind of size that I love in a cornerback at 6'1", 205 lbs. The other corners listed at the bottom - Carter, Rollins, and Williams - are all fine prospects, but they are all undersized with Williams having the double whammy of a slow Combine and post-Combine DUI. Not a strong combination.
Tartt has the kind of crazy athleticism and small-school mystique that makes him seem a bit risky, but a 6'1", 221 lbs. safety with a 4.53 40 certainly seems worth the gamble to me. The tape isn't convincing one way or the other due to the dearth of competition he faced at Samford, but he that's what coaching is for in my mind.
Walford isn't the most attractive tight end prospect I've seen, but I sure like the idea of getting my hands on a tight end from the U; too many great players have come through that pipeline to ignore Walford's strengths.
Perryman is a really good football player, but he is a little slow and very undersized as he stands just 5'10". I worry about his lacking frame at the next level.
Obviously there are dozens more names out there for this territory of the draft, any one of whom could be the right pick with the right skillset. I just don't want to see the Bears draft a quarterback. The odds of finding a useful starter outside of the top few picks are incredibly low even in spite of having seen a Super Bowl that featured a forming #75 overall pick (Russell Wilson) being outdueled by a former #199 overall pick (Tom Brady). It's possible that such a player is in this class (Garret Grayson? Brett Hundley? Bryce Petty?), but I just don't want the front office to spend that pick to find out. Perhaps that's dumb.
Before I end, here are a few quick-hit favorites of mine who may be available in the fourth round or later with a projected round in parentheses:
ILB Taiwan Jones (Michigan St.) (4th)
S Kurtis Drummond (Michigan St.) (4th)
S James Sample (Louisville) (4th)
ILB Paul Dawson (TCU) (4th)
TE Ben Koyack (Notre Dame) (5th)
CB Craig Mager (Texas State) (5th)
NT Ellis McCarthy (UCLA) (5th)
S Gerod Holliman (Louisville) (5th)
ILB Mike Hull (Penn St.) (5th)
S Adrian Amos (Penn St.) (5th)
CB Damian Swann (Georgia) (5th)
CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (Oregon) (6th)
NT Terry Williams (East Carolina) (6th)
ILB Reshard Cliett (South Florida) (6th)
C Brandon Vitabile (Northwestern) (6th)
On that list, I'm particularly fond of Cliett. He's a fast linebacker, something the Bears desperately need to add to the mix.
With all of the above said, I'm primarily hoping that the Bears draft good players. If they draft good players, the future is bright. If they draft bad players, well...
