The Chicago Bears Finally Look Like a Real Contender...Starting in 2018

(I wrote most of this article in late-November (through the Arden Key pick and swapping the assumption re Demps on next year's roster), then wrote the rest in late-December. There may be some timeline funkiness, so just roll with it.)

I'm fresh off of attending the Bears-Lions game on November 19, 2017. While some folks watched that game and thought that the Bears still looked to be years away from competing, I saw a squad that is taking shape as a real contender ready for launch in 2018.

Why the disconnect?

There are a few reasons. One is recency bias. The Bears have stumbled twice in the last eight days, dropping back-to-back one-score home games to the Packers and Lions to turn a surprisingly relevant season into a surefire 5-11/6-10 campaign, as expected. Go back another week, however, and the Bears were looking tough and promising.

Two, the Bears current roster is below-average (at best), lacking the playmakers necessary to succeed in the NFL and the premium prospects required for reaching the upper echelon. Or so it appears.

Three, most folks spend far less time looking at the Bears' salary cap situation than I do. My familiarity with it gives me additional confidence, so let's get to explaining said confidence.

Perhaps most importantly: many of the club's veteran, bloated salaries belong substantially to players who will be cut in the offseason, leaving behind minimal salary cap hits. In one sense, this is bad: the most expensive players should be the best players, not the worst players. Yes, that's true. But when expensive players can be jettisoned for minimal cost, that's a good thing. Here's a list of easily-replaceable players at a fraction of their cost (you may want to shield your eyes now):

• WR Markus Wheaton
• 2018 Cap: $5.75M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.75M
• Easily Cut Because...Wheaton has one catch for nine yards. All season.
• CB Marcus Cooper
• 2018 Cap: $5.5M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $1M
• Easily Cut Because...Cooper's awful play has him out of the CB rotation.
• ILB Jerrell Freeman
• 2018 Cap: $4M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.5M
• Easily Cut Because...Freeman has now been suspended for PEDs and injured twice each in two years. The Bears may even be able to get out from his dead money entirely as a result.
• OLB Pernell McPhee
• 2018 Cap: $8.075M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $1M
• Easily Cut Because...McPhee's body hasn't recovered from a rash of knee injuries, negating his effectiveness.
• TE Dion Sims
• 2018 Cap: $6.333M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.667M
• Easily Cut Because...Sims made no impact in the passing game and $6M+ for a blocking tight end is ludicrous. Plus, he's been out with an injury so he's not gaining report with Trubisky.
• S Quintin Demps
• 2018 Cap: $4.333M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.667M
• Easily Cut Because...It's not an easy cut, per se, but it's an easier choice given the emergence of Amos and Jackson combined with the cheap depth options behind them.
• QB Mike Glennon
• 2018 Cap: $16M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $4.5M (or $2M, perhaps)
• Easily Cut Because...Come on now.

There are other cut candidates -- Willie Young ($5.4M cap number or $0.9M dead) may need to prove he's fully healthy after tearing his triceps, Quintin Demps ($4.333M or $0.667M dead) will have a tough time wresting his starting job back from Adrian Amos, Bobby Massie ($6.1M or $0.5M dead) remains the weak link on the offensive line, and Eric Kush ($1.4M or $0 dead) figures to lose the backup guard spot to 2017 draftee Jordan Morgan -- but the seven above provide obvious, substantial relief against the salary cap, leaving just $9.084M behind (thanks Glennon).

The remaining players counting more than $1M against the cap in 2018:

• DE Akiem Hicks ($9.6M)
• G Kyle Long ($8.825M)
• G Josh Sitton ($8.667M)
• ILB Danny Trevathan ($7.15M)
• QB Mitch Trubisky ($6.598M)
• RT Bobby Massie ($6.1M)
• LT Charles Leno ($5.9M)
• OLB Willie Young ($5.4M)
• WR Kevin White ($5.27M)
• OLB Leonard Floyd ($4.304M)
• DT Eddie Goldman ($1.809M)
• G Eric Kush ($1.4M)
• TE Adam Shaheen ($1.343M)
• C Cody Whitehair ($1.152M)

That's...actually pretty darn good. The sub-$1M group is littered with contributors ranging from full-time starters like Amos, Nick Kwiatkoski, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen, and Jordan Howard to part-time contributors like Crevon LeBlanc and Jonathan Bullard. Deiondre' Hall and Roy Robertson-Harris have struggled with injuries, but they carry intrigue nevertheless. Only C Hroniss Grasu has been a true bust who figures to hit the waiver wire in the coming months.

GM Ryan Pace finds himself needing to rebuild the cornerback position this offseason as his top two cover men -- Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller -- hit free agency in addition to Cooper following his inevitable release. Dollars will need to be used at that position. That was also true last year when Pace struck out on AJ Bouye in the spring and watched Bouye instead head to Jacksonville to form the NFL's best cornerback group alongside Jalen Ramsey. He can't miss again this year.

Let's look at the roster and its needs as we determine where the Bears are likely to spend their resources in the springtime.

Quarterback
2018 Players: Mitch Trubisky ($6.598M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 3
Analysis: This is Trubisky's bus to drive. Yes, the Bears need a backup here. Whether that's a mid-round pick or a veteran doesn't matter much.

Running Back
2018 Players: Jordan Howard ($0.692M), Tarik Cohen ($0.714M), Taquan Mizzell ($0.555M), Michael Burton ($0.705M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: The Bears will grab someone in the Benny Cunningham mold (perhaps the actual Benny Cunningham?), but like QB, this position rests on the shoulders of the young draftees.

Wide Receiver
2018 Players: Kevin White ($5.27M)
Needed Starters/Players: 2/4
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: Duh. The Bears need lots of bodies here, most of whom will be new. No listed: RFA Cameron Meredith, who will be retained on a yet-unknown (likely) one-year deal. Dontrelle Inman may also return -- Trubisky seems to like him -- and Kendall Wright could come back on another short deal. There are plenty of options here.

Tight End
2018 Players: Adam Shaheen ($1.343M), Daniel Brown ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/2
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: This, of course, assumes that Sims gets the boot. If he's back, the position probably looks more or less the same moving forward. It's Shaheen's job to grab and run with it.

Offensive Tackle
2018 Players: Charles Leno ($5.9M), Bobby Massie ($6.1M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 7
Analysis: I'm still bummed that Ryan Pace lost his mind and paid Leno like he is a starting-caliber tackle. He's probably about the 28th best left tackle at any given time. It's worth seeing if he continues to improve, but the Bears would be wise to plan for his replacement. The mediocre Massie will be in the final year of his deal as well.

Offensive Guard
2018 Players: Josh Sitton ($8.667M), Kyle Long ($8.825M), Eric Kush ($1.4M), Jordan Morgan ($0.629M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: The team's best position group. It's Sitton's walk year, but his replacement can be found later and possibly even in-house if Morgan develops.

Center
2018 Players: Cody Whitehair ($1.152M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: Whitehair has struggled some this year, but on the whole, he still looks like a core piece moving ahead.

Nose Tackle
2018 Players: Eddie Goldman ($1.809M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Goldman has stayed healthy and though his play has been more "good" than "great," he still looks like a keeper.

Defensive End
2018 Players: Akiem Hicks ($9.6M), Jonathan Bullard ($0.925M), Roy Robertson-Harris ($0.557M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/1
Level of Need: 5
Analysis: The Bears would love to add another rotation player here, but they'd love even more for Bullard to emerge in December as a likely starter for next year's squad. If that happens, expect them to consider bringing back Mitch Unrein on another cheap deal.

Inside Linebacker
2018 Players: Danny Trevathan ($7.15M), Nick Kwiatkoski ($0.774M), Jonathan Anderson ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/1
Level of Need: 5
Analysis: Given Trevathan's injury history and Kwiatkoski's solid but unspectacular play, the club would be best served grabbing another starting-caliber ILB. That could very well be Jerrell Freeman back on a minimum-salary deal.

Outside Linebacker
2018 Players: Leonard Floyd ($4.304M), Willie Young ($5.4M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/3
Level of Need: 9
Analysis: 3-4 OLBs have to get into the backfield. Floyd and Young both come with upside (much more for Floyd) and injury histories. The Bears need to find another viable rusher to make the defense click.

Cornerback
2018 Players: Crevon LeBlanc ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 3/5
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: I don't think that LeBlanc can hold the position group together all by himself. Bryce Callahan likely comes back as an RFA.

Safety
2018 Players: Adrian Amos ($0.763M), Eddie Jackson ($0.721M), Deon Bush ($0.762M), DeAndre Houston-Carson ($0.63M), Deiondre' Hall ($0.758M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: After so many years of desperately needing to find a safety, the Bears don't need one anymore. There's no way each of these six makes the final roster next year. The most likely outcomes? Either (i) Demps gets cut, or (ii) Houston-Carson gets cut.

Specialists
2018 Players: None
Needed Starters/Players: 3/3
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: I hope/suspect that the front office will keep Pat O'Donnell around -- he has acquitted himself nicely on the whole during his team in the league thus far. The kicking job should be up for grabs. No comment re long snappers.

Assuming that the above moves are made -- Wheaton, Cooper, Freeman, McPhee, Sims, and Glennon are cut while everyone else above sticks around -- the Bears would have $9.626M in dead money (their $8.417M of dead cap money plus $1.209M from those released last year). Not an enviable total but not a brutal amount by any stretch. The 31 players listed above account for approximately $88.926M of cap space.

The Bears are projected to have the sixth-worst record in the league (5-11) but lose every tiebreaker with other 5-win teams, so they should pick ninth. They own all of their own picks except for their third-round choice and they also own Arizona's fourth-round pick. Arizona is projected to have the 13th-worst record in the league. Accordingly, the Bears are expected to own picks 9, 41, 116, 120, 153, 193, and 227 (though 227 may head to San Diego thanks to the Inman trade). Last year, players chosen in those spots had combined cap numbers of about $7.6M. It's possible and even probable that Pace will trade down and add picks as he has in recent years, but adding a non-first round pick to the tally barely touches the cap at all.

Once we add the draft holds to the guaranteed hits above, we have a total spend of $96.526M with 13 spots to go. At present, the Bears are projected to have an adjusted cap of approximately $175.302M next year, yielding $78.776M of cap space entering free agency. Yowzers!

The offense would have huge needs at wide receiver and tight end while the defense would need a gaggle of new cornerbacks and a handful of linebackers. And some of that space would be used on extensions for the likes of Goldman and Amos. Still, there's lots of money to go around, so here are the proposed free agent deals and draft picks.

Free Agency

1. Sign WR Cam Meredith to a one-year, $3M deal (approximate second round tender)
2. Sign CB Bryce Callahan to a one-year, $2M deal (approximate original round tender)
3. Sign QB Chad Henne to a one-year, $3.5M deal
4. Sign P Pat O'Donnell to a three-year, $9M deal
5. Sign WR Dontrelle Inman to a two-year, $6M deal
6. Sign WR Kendall Wright to a one-year, $2M deal
7. Sign OLB Lamarr Houston to a one-year, $2M deal
8. Sign CB Trumaine Johnson to a five-year, $80M deal
9. Sign CB Prince Amukamara to a three-year, $27M deal
10. Sign ILB Demario Davis to a four-year, $34M deal

I'd love to nab somebody significant for the receiver group like Allen Robinson or Jarvis Landry, but such an expenditure may not be wise with limited snaps to go around and so many solid targets with the hopeful returns of Meredith and White. The most important additions appear to be the last three.

That octet would use up approximately $50M in cap space, just over half of the club's allotment. Dang.

NFL Draft

Pick #9: OLB Arden Key, LSU

----- Key is violent, fast, and has incredible bend in his upper half. He probably won't make it to #9, but if he does, the Bears would be thrilled.

Pick #41: WR Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame

----- If St. Brown actually falls this far on draft day (as is currently projected), the Bears will be seriously hard-pressed to pass. He's got an elite receiver's body with excellent flexibility. A year ago at this time, his name was being bandied about with the likes of A.J. Green and Julio Jones. The only thing that changed? Brandon Wimbush replaced DeShone Kizer. St. Brown looks like this year's Alshon Jeffery to me, without the off-field murmurs, as a receiver who falls in a big way without much sense. He'd be a huge addition.

Pick #116: TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State

----- Gesicki's leaping ability and hands are tremendous. His route running isn't as developed as you'd like and his blocking is generally poor. That's a quality mid-round prospect.

Pick #120: OLB Chad Thomas, Miami

----- Thomas doesn't look like an every-down monster in the NFL, but he comes with an elite pedigree (5-star recruit) and impressive tape as a senior. Given his larger body (265 lbs.), it's easy to envision him playing with his hand in the dirt in obvious pass rushing situations in the NFL, a role he appears well-suited to play.

Pick #153: CB Holton Hill, Texas

----- Hill comes with the big body that so many teams covet. He doesn't move as fluidly as the elite corners in the game, but he'd be a strong depth addition to the team.

Pick #193: NT Michael Hill, Ohio State
----- It's not clear why Hill was suspended multiple times during his career at Ohio State. It is clear that he is massive at 320 pounds and that he occasionally commands double-teams in college. With some impressive first-step quickness and an ability to get into the backfield, he could be a nice depth piece behind Goldman.

Pick #227: K Eddy Pineiro, Florida
----- Pineiro has bizarre mechanics and, incredibly, he didn't plan to kick in college, only taking it up again when his junior college needed a man for the job. I have questions about his ability to kick accurately over time, but the leg strength is impressive, as is his 78% touchback percentage. He'd be a boon to the roster.

53-Man Roster

QB (2): Trubisky, Henne

RB (5): Howard, Cohen, Mizzell, Burton, ?????

WR (5): White, Meredith, Inman, Wright, St. Brown
TE (4): Shaheen, Gesicki, Brown, ?????
OT (3): Leno, Massie, ?????
OG/C (5): Sitton, Long, Whitehair, Kush, Morgan
DT (2): Goldman, Hill
DE (4): Hicks, Bullard, Robertson-Harris, ?????
ILB (4): Trevathan, Davis, Kwiatkoski, Anderson
OLB (5): Floyd, Young, Houston, Key, Thomas
CB (6): Johnson, Amukamara, Callahan, LeBlanc, Hill, ?????
S (5): Amos, Jackson, Bush, Houston-Carson, Hall
SP (3): O'Donnell (P), Pineiro (K), ????? (LS)

So there we go. That's a team with plenty of potential, but also one that needs to stay healthy and get notable second-year jumps from Trubisky, Shaheen, and Co. in addition to much-needed third-year jumps from Floyd (to elite status) and Bullard (to regular status).

Penn State's 2018 Recruiting Class is Like None I've Ever Seen

There's nothing particularly profound to say here: James Franklin just signed one of the best classes in school history.

To say that Penn State hit a lull in recruiting in the final years under Joe Paterno would be a significant understatement. Here is the team's composite ranking according to 247sports since the star-studded 2006 class, covering Paterno's final five classes (before the gutted 2012 class):

2007: 39th (14 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 4 ★★★★, 9 ★★★)
2008: 40th (15 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 9 ★★★)
2009: 19th (24 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 7 ★★★★, 16 ★★★)
2010: 13th (18 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 13 ★★★★, 5 ★★★)

2011: 31st (16 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 10 ★★★)

Those classes aren't bad, but they're basically equivalent to what Michigan State did over the same span of time. That's not meant to be disrespectful to Sparty at all: Mark Dantonio built a juggernaut during that time and he's one of college football's elites in my mind. Recruiting doesn't win games. Nevertheless, Penn State would be expected to enjoy substantially more recruiting success.

The 2012 class was decimated by the sanctions, though Bill O'Brien incredibly led the program through that difficult time to produce OK results.

2012: 47th (20 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 3 ★★★★, 16 ★★★)

The on-field results with those players were as expected: after the veteran-laden 2009 squad turned in their second-straight 11-2 season, the 2010-15 Nitts were...mediocre:

2010: 7-6
2011: 9-4
2012: 8-4
2013: 7-5
2014: 7-6
2015: 7-6

Obviously the sanctions played a role in those results, but Penn State going six years without a 10-win season and going just 45-31 in the aggregate isn't too terribly impressive.

O'Brien's sole recruiting cycle didn't yield a banner class, but he kept enough of the Class of 2013 together to cobble together a solid group:

2013: 33rd (16 recruits, 1 ★★★★★, 3 ★★★★, 11 ★★★)

Incredibly, the top eight players in that class by Rivals -- Christian Hackenberg, Adam Breneman, Garrett Sickels, Brendan Mahon, DaeSean Hamilton, Andrew Nelson, Brandon Bell, and Curtis Cothran -- all enjoyed multiple years of starting in college with a handful spending time in the NFL, too. That's rare in recruiting.

Regardless, this post both is and isn't about the Paterno/O'Brien classes. It's primarily about Franklin's incredible success on the recruiting trail. And that starts with his unholy, remarkable run in the month before signing day in 2014.

2014: 24th (25 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 20 ★★★)

O'Brien had put together a solid class, but jumped for the NFL on January 2nd. Franklin was hired on January 11th. Of the 25-member class, nine commits joined the group after Franklin's hire. Nine. Included in that group: DE Torrence Brown, CB Christian Campbell, CB Amani Oruwariye, WR Saeed Blacknall, LB Koa Farmer, CB Grant Haley, and QB Trace McSorley. Now that's a good month. The O'Brien portion of the class produced relatively fewer impact players, but three pass catchers arrived -- TE Mike Gesicki and WRs Chris Godwin and De'Andre Thompkins -- that changed the fortunes of the Nittany offense.

Franklin's full recruiting classes, however, have been impactful across the board.

2015: 14th (25 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 13 ★★★★, 12 ★★★)

2016: 20th (20 recruits, 1 ★★★★★, 7 ★★★★, 11 ★★★)

2017: 15th (22 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 11 ★★★★, 10 ★★★)

Unsurprisingly, the on-field results have followed with a pair of 10-win seasons and a returning roster/schedule for 2018 that should leave Nittany with a 9-win floor (if they lose @ Michigan and two of the following three: @ Pitt, Ohio State, and Michigan State) and a ceiling that is...higher than that.

The 2018 class figures to further fuel the renaissance in State College. All verbals except for three-star Shaquon Anderson-Butts have signed, and even if this class doesn't get another commitment -- Nittany is considered the favorite for top-100 OT Rasheed Walker and among the favorites for top-300 targets DE Jayson Oweh and legacy WR Solomon Enis -- it'll be the best class at Penn State...ever?

2018: 4th (22 recruits, 3 ★★★★★, 9 ★★★★, 10 ★★★)

That overall ranking will drop to the 6-10 range once elite players fill out the ranks at Alabama, Clemson, and the like, but that's still an elite class. And here's the whole point of this post: the players that comprise the class are largely players targeted by those elite peer institutions. Here's the top five offers for each player in the Penn State class (using my own highly unofficial prestige rankings).

• ★★★★★ DE/OLB Micah Parsons
• Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, USC, Florida
• ★★★★★ WR Justin Shorter (Shorter committed in Aug. '16)
• Miami, Michigan, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Pitt
• ★★★★★ RB Ricky Slade
• Ohio State, Miami, Florida, Virginia Tech, Pitt
• ★★★★ OT Nana Asiedu
• Clemson, Florida, Michigan, Georgia, LSU
• ★★★★ DT P.J. Mustipher
• Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami, Michigan
• ★★★★ TE Zack Kuntz
• Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU, Michigan
• ★★★★ WR Jahan Dotson
• Ohio State, Clemson, USC, Georgia, Notre Dame
• ★★★★ TE Pat Freiermuth (like Shorter, Freiermuth committed in Aug. '16)
• Notre Dame, Maryland, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Rutgers
• ★★★★ C Juice Scruggs
• Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Pitt
• ★★★★ OLB Jesse Luketa
• Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Stanford, Pitt (and most of the Ivy League)
• ★★★★ WR Daniel George
• Wisconsin, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Iowa, Maryland
• ★★★★ LB Nick Tarburton
• Pitt, Michigan State, Maryland, Louisville, Syracuse
• ★★★ CB Jordan Miner
• Georgia, Florida, Auburn, Oregon, Wisconsin
• ★★★ CB Trent Gordon
• Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, LSU, Michigan
• ★★★ DT Aeneas Hawkins
• Ohio State, Clemson, USC, Miami, Georgia
• ★★★ DE Judge Culpepper
• Alabama, USC, Notre Dame, Georgia, Florida
• ★★★ S Isaiah Humphries
• Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Colorado
• ★★★ LB Charlie Katshir
• Pitt, West Virginia, Rutgers, Virginia, Indiana
• ★★★ OT Bryce Effner
• Syracuse, Minnesota, Duke, Missouri, Kansas State
• ★★★ QB Will Levis
• Florida State, Mississippi, North Carolina, Iowa, Syracuse (and most of the Ivy League)
• ★★★ K Jake Pinegar
• Indiana, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Western Illinois

There are a lot of huge names on that list. And here are the other players that remain unsigned (Anderson-Butts) or high-level targets:

• ★★★★ DE Tyreke Smith
• Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Georgia, Notre Dame
• ★★★★ OT Rasheed Walker
• Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Florida, Michigan
• ★★★★ DE Jayson Oweh
• Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami, Florida, Michigan
• ★★★★ WR Solomon Enis
• USC, Oregon, Georgia, UCLA, Mississippi
• ★★★ WR Shaquon Anderson-Butts
• Notre Dame, Florida, Oregon, Nebraska, Pitt

According to the highly official crystal ball on 247, Nittany has no shot at Smith (Ohio State), but they're a lock for Enis (100%), a near-lock for Walker (94%) and a surprising late strong play for Oweh (83%). Anderson-Butts is unique in that he has been a hard commit for a year but didn't sign during the early signing period amid speculation he may look elsewhere, perhaps fueled in part by the monster commitments of Shorter, George, and Dotson and the likely impending addition of Enis. It's also possible the Isheem Young's legal troubles have pushed the coaching staff to ask Anderson-Butts to play safety instead of wide receiver. There's too much speculation here to know for sure.

Regardless of what happens with Walker, Oweh, Enis, and Anderson-Butts, Nittany's recruiting haul this year sets the team up for immense success into the next decade as the team transitions from McSorley to Stevens to Clifford at QB and as the coaching staff coalesces with a new group around James Franklin when coordinators leave for head coaching opportunities. It's a very exciting time for Nittany ball.

Penn State Was Great in 2017...But the Team Could Enjoy Greater Success in 2018. Really.

That title seems absurd: Saquon Barkley has either one or zero games remaining as a Nittany Lion (I hope it's zero, despite reports that he'll play in the Cotton/Orange/Peach/Outback Bowl). Barkley is a generational talent and he'll be desperately missed by next year's team. How could Penn State possibly

But that's just the thing: football is a team sport, not an individual one. Michigan has an outstanding defensive front seven, a stable of strong running backs, and an offensive line that can run block against any team in the country. Alas, they're a disaster at quarterback with a leaky secondary. Result? 8-4 with a trio of multi-score losses.

Penn State has endured many seasons like that where a particular position group proved to be the downfall of the team as a whole.

Next year? Next year there doesn't appear to be such a position group. Here's a group-by-group look at next year's team with their 2018 class year listed and their Rivals recruiting ranking in parentheses with new starters in italics:

Quarterback
Projected Starter: RS SR Trace McSorley (★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Tommy Stevens (★★★), RS FR Sean Clifford (★★★★), RS SO Jake Zembiec (★★★★)
Recruits: Will Levis (★★★)
Losses: None

McSorley was second-team All-Big Ten in 2017 after being second-team All-Big Ten in 2016. He'll have a good shot of staying at that level in 2018. Stevens has played plenty and looks like a larger, slower version of McSorley. Notably, Clifford beat out Zembiec on this year's depth chart and held the #3 job all season.

Rating: ★★★★★

Running Back
Projected Starter: JR Miles Sanders (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Andre Robinson (★★★), RS SR Mark Allen (★★), RS FR Journey Brown (★★★)
Recruits: Ricky Slade (★★★★)
Losses: Saquon Barkley

Sanders will get his time to shine, and given what he's shown so far and his pedigree as the top back in his high school class, he should do so. Robinson and Allen are capable backups and Brown should carve out a complementary role in his time, but Slade is the real future here. I suspect that the coaching staff will attempt to redshirt him, but he may force his way onto the field.

Rating: ★★★★

Wide Receiver
Projected Starters: RS JR Juwan Johnson (★★★★), RS SR DeAndre Thompkins (★★★★), RS JR Irvin Charles (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Brandon Polk (★★★), RS SO Dae'lun Darien (★★★), RS FR K.J. Hamler (★★★★), RS FR Mac Hippenhammer (★★★), RS FR Mac Hippenhammer (★★★)
Recruits: Justin Shorter (★★★★), Daniel George (★★★★), Shaquon Anderson-Butts (★★★)
Losses: DaeSean Hamilton

The Nittany Lions lost Chris Godwin to the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but DaeSean Hamilton rediscovered his freshman year magic, producing a huge season. Next year, it'll be all about Juwan Johnson who emerged as a go-to target. Listed at 6-4, 226 pounds, Johnson will likely be off to the NFL after the 2018 season, but in his redshirt junior year, he'll pair with seasoned veteran DeAndre Thompkins to lead the way.

The two bits of intrigue here: which undersized youngster wins time in the slot (my bet is Polk first and then Hamler) and how long can the coaches keep Shorter, the 6-3, 220-pound consensus top-50 overall player, on the bench? If Johnson and Thompkins are healthy, it'll be for a while. But if there's an injury, expect McSorley to target Shorter with regularity.

Rating: ★★★★

Tight End
Projected Starters: RS JR Jonathan Holland (★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Nick Bowers (★★★), RS SO Danny Dalton (★★★)
Recruits: Patrick Freiermuth (★★★★), Zack Kuntz (★★★★)
Losses: Mike Gesicki, Tom Pancoast

It's almost like the recruiting staff thought Gesicki was going to be around forever. Alas, eligibility rules being what they are, Gesicki is off to the NFL after a decorated career in blue and white, leaving behind an uncertain position group.

I have plenty of hope for Holland after he forced his way into a role in 2017, but the real hope here lies with Freiermuth and Kuntz. One of them will likely earn some playing time in 2018: the smart money is on the bulldozing Freiermuth. Nevertheless, while the position is healthy going forward, 2018 could be lean.

Rating: ★★★

Offensive Tackle
Projected Starters: RS JR Ryan Bates (★★★★), RS SO Will Fries (★★★★)
Reserves: RS SO Alex Gellerstedt (★★★), RS SR Chasz Wright (★★★), RS JR Sterling Jenkins (★★★), RS FR Des Holmes (★★★), RS FR C.J. Thorpe (★★★★)
Recruits: Nana Asiedu (★★★★), Antwan Reed (★★★★)  Bryce Effner (★★★)
Losses: Andrew Nelson

Bates is the best lineman on the team and the offense's struggles can be tied to the moment he left the Ohio State game with an injury. Fries is nowhere near Bates' level, but on the right side, he's an asset.

The depth, however, remains a big concern. The only other tackles listed on the depth chart in 2017 were Wright, who struggled mightily, and Gellerstedt, who didn't play any meaningful snaps. Jenkins has been a major bust after being an Under Armour All-American and while Thorpe, Reed, and particularly Asiedu all look like plausible future starters, injuries have created a major gap in the depth chart. Here's hoping for better health in 2018.

Rating: ★★★★

Interior Offensive Line
Projected Starters: RS JR Steven Gonzalez (★★★), RS SO Michal Menet (★★★★), JR Connor McGovern (center) (★★★★)
Reserves: RS FR Mike Miranda (★★★), RS FR Robbie Martin (★★★)
Recruits: Juice Scruggs (center) (★★★★)
Losses: Brendan Mahon

If you thought the tackle group was thin, just wait until you see the guards. McGovern has been a stud from day one at center, but the guard positions are far less certain.

At various times in the past year, it seemed as though Menet or Miranda would force his way into the starting lineup, but Mahon and Gonzalez managed to hold them off. Given some run blocking struggles during Big Ten play, this is none too encouraging.

Rating: ★★★

Defensive Tackle
Projected Starters: RS JR Kevin Givens (★★★), RS JR Robert Windsor (★★★)
Reserves: RS SO Ellison Jordan (★★★), RS SO Antonio Shelton (★★★), RS FR Cory Bolds (★★★), RS FR Fred Hansard (★★★★)
Recruits: Aeneas Hawkins (★★★★), PJ Mustipher (★★★★)
Losses: Parker Cothren, Curtis Cothran

Defensive tackle was a true position of strength at Penn State for nearly a decade, but that hasn't been true for the past two seasons and 2018 doesn't appear to be in line to break that streak. Givens flashed plenty in 2016, then struggled to find playing time this year.

There is, however, one way in which that could be true: if top 2017 recruit Hansard bursts out of nowhere to become an every-down caliber player. Without that, it's going to be another thin year inside before the prized 2018 recruits can begin to put their stamp on the system. Even then, Hawkins probably needs to add 30 pounds before he can be in line for a starting gig, so 2020 may be the target for this position group. Gulp.

Rating: ★★★

Defensive End
Projected Starters: RS SR Torrence Brown (★★★), RS JR Ryan Buchholz (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Shareef Miller (★★★), RS SO Shane Simmons (★★★★), SO Yetur Gross-Matos (★★★★), RS SO Shaka Toney (★★★), RS SO Daniel Joseph (★★★), RS FR Damion Barber (★★★)
Recruits: Judge Culpepper (★★★★)
Losses: None

Whereas defensive tackle is a traditionally strong position that has fallen on hard times, defensive end has been and remains a spot of strength. Unfortunate injuries to Brown and Buchholz have given Miller, Simmons, Toney, and Gross-Matos chances to get on the field. Gross-Matos in particular earned himself a significant look down the stretch. Of course, all eyes remain on the recruiting trail where prized former commit Micah Parsons lingers...

Even without Parsons in tow, this group looks strong now and moving forward.

Rating: ★★★★

Linebacker
Projected Starters: RS SR Koa Farmer (★★★★), SR Manny Bowen (★★★★), RS FR Ellis Brooks (★★★★)
Reserves: JR Cam Brown (★★★), RS JR Jarvis Miller (★★★), SR Jake Cooper (★★★), RS FR Brelin Faison-Walden (★★★★), RS FR Brailyn Franklin (★★★)
Recruits: Jesse Luketa (★★★★), Nick Tarburton (★★★★), Charlie Katshir (★★★)
Losses: Jason Cabinda, Brandon Smith

Yikes. Farmer was recruited as a safety/linebacker hybrid, but his bulked-up body has been too slow to play strong pass coverage. Bowen has been good when on the field...but he was mysteriously suspended in mid-November and missed multiple games for it after being suspended late in 2016 as well. It'll be tough to count on him going forward. Brown handled himself well in a somewhat limited run, though he's undersized for defending the run.

Accordingly, Penn State needs a lot to break right in 2018 to have a strong linebacking group. The best bets for such a result: an explosion from Brooks and a highly successful redshirt year from either Faison-Walden or Fanklin. Here's hoping. This rating reflects the fact that there is a lot of volatility here.

Rating: ★★

Cornerback
Projected Starters: RS SR Amani Oruwariye (★★★), RS JR John Reid (★★★★)
Reserves: SO Lamont Wade (★★★★★), SO Tariq Castro-Fields (★★★★), RS SO Zech McPhearson (★★★), RS FR Donovan Johnson (★★★★), RS FR DJ Brown (★★★)
Recruits: Jordan Miner (★★★★), Trent Gordon (★★★★)
Losses: Grant Haley, Christian Campbell

The losses here are notable as Haley enjoyed a sparkling career at Penn State and Campbell emerged as an every-down player as a senior.

However, this position more than any other has loaded up on talent over the years and is reaping those rewards. Even if Reid can't return from his spring knee injury, this group is deep and extremely strong. If Reid comes back at 90% of his 2016 production, the secondary will remain the defense's strength in 2018.

Rating: ★★★★

Safety
Projected Starters: RS SR Nick Scott (★★★), RS JR Ayron Monroe (★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Garrett Taylor (★★★★), RS JR Johnny Petrishen (★★★), RS FR Jonathan Sutherland (★★★★)
Recruits: Isheem Young (★★★★), Isaiah Humphries (★★★)
Losses: Marcus Allen, Troy Apke

Marcus Allen is a huge loss, a consistent All-Big Ten performer as a four-year starter. Those are tough to find. But the Nittany Lions are trying to find another Allen, tossing significant resources at the back of the secondary in recent years. A couple of program losses have created a gap on the depth chart that Sutherland will attempt to fill. If the role proves too tough, don't be surprised to see Young play his way into snaps as a true freshman.

(Edit: being arrested for armed robbery was not a good way for Young to get playing time as a true freshman...or to get onto the team at all. What a devastatingly bad story.)

Rating: ★★★

Specialists
Projected Starters: RS SO Alex Barbir (★★★), JR Blake Gillikin (punter) (★★★)
Reserves: None
Recruits: Jake Pinegar (★★)
Losses: Tyler Davis (kicker)

It's tough to call this position a rousing success not knowing how Barbir will kick for accuracy, but Gillikin has been a godsend since arriving two years ago and should continue his All-Big Ten ways into the future. He'd get five stars, but until Barbir kicks in a game, this group remains limited.

Rating: ★★★★

Coaching
Projected Starters: James Franklin (head), Brent Pry (defense), ????? (offense)
Reserves: None
Recruits: None
Losses: Joe Moorhead

Franklin has recruited like a superhero, and it's tough to argue with his results following September 2016's beatdown at the Big House: a 19-3 record with a three-point loss at USC, a one-point loss at Ohio State, a three-point loss at Michigan State, and a Big Ten championship. If the Nitts win their bowl game, it'll make for a second straight top-10 finish. Not bad at all!

Alas, Franklin's gameday coaching still leaves something to be desired, and he'll almost certainly head into 2018 without offensive guru Joe Moorhead who figures to find a tasty head coaching opportunity in the coming days (edit: he's off to Starkville to replace Dan Mullen - awesome fit for Joe!). Congratulations to Moorhead for getting his shot and thanks to him for a couple of thrilling years!

It sounds like Ricky Rahne or Andrew Breiner will likely replace Moorhead. Here's hoping for continuing innovation in that spot.

Rating: ★★★

In the aggregate, next year's team looks very strong. Yes, they'll miss the star power of Barkley, Allen, and Gesicki as well as the strong veteran presences of Mahon, Cabinda, and Haley, but the talent on the roster is on the upswing. In a team game, that's what really matters. Returning 4/5 of the offensive line, a budding elite receiver, an elite punter, a deep and talented defensive end rotation, a strong secondary, and, most importantly, a three-year starter at quarterback is a recipe for success.

Perhaps most importantly for the team as a whole, the schedule shapes up quite favorably to make a big run. Unlike 2017 where Penn State got stuck playing Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State in order, including the last two on the road, the 2018 schedule doesn't feature anything as daunting. Here it is:

Appalachian State
@ Pittsburgh
Kent State
@ Illinois
Ohio State
BYE
Michigan State
@ Indiana
Iowa
@ Michigan
Wisconsin
@ Rutgers
Maryland

Pitt is generally dicey as a road rivalry game, especially given their penchant for upsetting top-five teams, though Penn State enjoys a marked talent advantage and should have plenty of home fans.

Getting Ohio State at home after back-to-back gimmes and before the Bye is ideal.

Getting Michigan State after the Bye is great.

Only the Iowa/@ Michigan/Wisconsin portion of the schedule shapes up poorly, and even then, two of those three are at home. Not bad. It's rare to have four of a team's five toughest games at home, but that's just what Penn State has with Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, and Wisconsin all visiting Happy Valley.

In order to win the Big Ten, Penn State will have to (1) win its home games, even the tough ones, or (2) find a way to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Neither of those items will be easy to check off of the to-do list, but that's what it takes to win a championship. So be it.