At least we have the Cubs.
Tonight marks the beginning of the end of Ryan Pace's tenure as general manager. It's possible that QB Mitch Trubisky becomes the long-awaited savior at the game's most important position. But if he does so, it won't happen for a number of years by which point Pace will be long gone.
It was a tough night to be a Bears fan. Earlier today, I posted a series of 15 possible outcomes for the Bears in the first round ranked from best to worst. A trade with San Francisco to select Trubisky wasn't on the list, but it would have come in around 13th, even if Trubisky turns out to be a viable NFL starting quarterback. The Bears are largely bereft of impact talent on their roster, yet armed with upwards of $70M of cap space this spring, Pace whiffed on the available impact players. Naturally he still spent most of his money, but for all of his acquisitions, only Mike Glennon carries more than $1M of dead cap space should he be released following the season. Pace wasn't able to get an impact player to Chicago in free agency, thus needing to build the entire roster through the draft. Trading away two third-round picks and a fourth-round selection to boot isn't going to help with that process.
In my eyes, Pace gets an F minus for his effort tonight. I often point to the inexplicably terrible trade that the Browns made with the Vikings in the 2012 draft as reference point for inept draft maneuvering, but Pace has a chance to rival the Browns. In 2012, the Browns moved up for Trent Richardson, allowing the Vikings to drop a slot while still selecting desperately-needed tackle Matt Kalil. Every team in the league knew that Minnesota needed to get their hands on Kalil to fill a gaping hole. They couldn't afford the risk of dropping below the fourth slot given that any number of teams could move up and snatch Kalil out from under their noses (Kalil was the only offensive tackle taken in the top 20 of the draft). Instead of calling Minnesota's bluff, Cleveland paid fourth, fifth, and seventh round choices to lock-in Richardson.
Tonight, Pace followed in their footsteps.
The draft's worst-kept secret was that Cleveland would take Myles Garrett. The draft's second worst-kept secret was that San Francisco's new regime was head over heels for Solomon Thomas. Unless they picked up a massive bounty, they weren't leaving Philadelphia without Thomas on board. Accordingly, they had the choice of either taking him at #2 or trading down to a spot where they could be reasonably certain that Thomas was available. Obviously #3 would qualify, provided that whoever they traded with didn't take Thomas themselves. However, anything lower than #3 opened up the possibility that Thomas ended up elsewhere. Accordingly, San Francisco couldn't afford to drop below #3. But the Bears also reportedly loved Thomas and could have utilized his pass rushing prowess up front. If San Francisco either took Trubisky or traded their pick to another team that would, they'd likely lose out to the Bears for Thomas. As a result, San Francisco couldn't deal with any non-Bears team without likely missing out on Thomas. Pace needed to stand firm and call John Lynch's bluff, forcing Lynch to take Trubisky himself, take Thomas, or give up the Thomas dream. Instead, Pace paid a huge price for the certainty of bringing Trubisky on board.
But why? Trubisky looks like an interesting prospect. He's got a good arm, a solid body, good mobility, and seemingly possesses many of the intangibles that teams love. But he's a prospect, not a relative sure-thing in the mold of Eli Manning, Cam Newton, and the like. Paying a premium to move up for a dynamite talent like Garrett -- one that comes with a very high floor -- makes good sense to me. Paying a premium to move up for a wild card like Trubisky is reckless.
Then there's the value. According to the old, outdated draft pick value chart, the Bears acquired 400 points of value in moving from #3 to #2. They surrendered 255 points in the #67 choice and 72 more points with #111, a total of 327 points. But then they threw in their 2018 third-round pick, a pick whose value has a floor of 116 points. Even factoring in that the 2018 pick is slightly less valuable as a future selection, San Francisco did well for themselves. There is, of course, one additional tiny matter: the Bears aren't winning the 2017 Super Bowl. They're not making the playoffs. They're likely living in the bottom of the barrel again, meaning that the 49ers likely acquired an additional pick in the 65-75 range, picks with an average value of 240 points. Pace got fleeced.
It looks even worse if we use Chase Stuart's updated value chart. For Stuart, the gap between #2 and #3 is all of 2.6 points (30.2 - 27.6). Pick #67 alone is worth 7.8 points. Pick #111 adds another 4.6. Factor in that the average of picks #65-75 is 7.5 more, and Pace got 30.2 points in exchange for 47.5 points. Ouch.
Here's a sobering thought for Bears fans: no only is Trubisky unlikely to play as a rookie, he's unlikely to dress on game days to start his professional tenure, instead watching Mike Glennon and Mark Sanchez take reps. Trubisky is raw having only 13 collegiate starts under his belt. More importantly, the Bears have one of the worst left tackles in the NFL (Charles Leno, Jr.) and their receiving options are either risky or terrible, depending on your outlook. It'd be outrageous to throw Trubisky into the fire for a team without dynamic weapons on the outside and with a putrid blind side protection scheme. The Bears have surprised me a lot over the past year or so, but I don't expect a coach fighting for his job to break in a particularly green rookie.
So if the Bears traded away a bunch of picks and they're not even going to play the guy that they acquired, what's going to happen? That's right: Tankapalooza 2017. The Bears are going to be dreadfully bad in 2017. Sure, they spent money to plug holes, but the did so with sub-par players. Given what should be the league's worst passing offense and some of the worst special teams, and the Bears appear headed for something in the neighborhood of two to four wins. This might be a bit easier to take had the Bears not included their 2018 third-round pick in the Trubisky deal.
It is particularly difficult to watch Pace's downfall after his first two offseasons were so wildly successful with both free agency and the draft paying dividends. That success ran out seven weeks ago and it hasn't returned.
One implication of tonight's deal is that Pace is almost certainly not going to pick at #36 tomorrow night. He needs to acquire some extra picks, so expect to see something along the lines of last year's Cody Whitehair double-trade-down with Pace looking to recoup one of the third rounders that he surrendered to get Trubisky.
Mike Glennon: he was brought in to be a one-year starter and now that's definitely what he'll be. If he's superb in 2017, the Bears will be ecstatic as they flip him to Cleveland, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, the Jets, or some other QB-needy teams this time next year. If he flops, oh well. It was only cash and some short-term cap space.
Finally, strangely, I suppose that some kudos are in order for Pace. Pace very clearly believes that Trubisky is a franchise quarterback capable of leading the Bears to football glory. He believes it so fully that he was willing to mortgage the next couple of seasons in order to acquire Trubisky, a decision that is all but certain to cost Pace his job in 2019 or 2020. In some sense, that's noble.
Of course, it also means that the Bears are in for a ton of losses in 2017 and 2018. Buckle up. It's going to be a painful ride.
Friday, April 28, 2017
Thursday, April 27, 2017
Scenarios for the Bears in Tonight's First Round, Ranked from Best to Worst
The title of this post says it all. I will add the caveat that the scenarios all have to have some amount of reasonableness. Thus, I won't include the Packers trading all of their picks to the Bears for Connor Barth, who promptly retires. That'd be swell. Let's get to it!
1. The Browns draft Mitch Trubisky at #1, the 49ers draft Solomon Thomas at #2, and Myles Garrett incredibly falls to #3, where the Bears scoop him up before he enjoys a 15-year Hall of Fame run in Chicago.
2. The Browns draft Myles Garrett at #1 but desperately want to get Mitch Trubisky, too, so they use the outdated pick value chart (and not the new Chase Stuart model), trading the #12 pick and both of their second-round picks (#33 and #52) to the Bears for #3. The Bears are ecstatic when Ohio State safety Malik Hooker's injury concerns scare away a few other teams, and they gobble up the electric free safety at #12. Just before the night ends, the Bears jump back into the first round, trading their own second-round pick (#36) and their third-round pick (#67) to the Cowboys for the 28th overall pick, where the Bears grab QB-of-the-future DeShone Kizer before he slips to the Steelers at #30. Over the course of the following day, the Bears auction off #33 overall, recouping a third-round pick in exchange for moving down a few slots in round two.
3. The Browns draft Mitch Trubisky at #1 and the 49ers put #2 up for sale. Despite a flurry of interest, the 49ers want to make sure that they can get Solomon Thomas, so they flip with the Bears for #3 and #67 overall. The Bears are ecstatic with Garrett.
4. The Bears have identified DeShone Kizer as a true QB1, the new quarterback to lead the franchise back to the promised land. The rest of the NFL disagrees, enabling the Bears to trade down multiple times, acquiring a slew of picks in the process and getting Kizer in the mid-to-late portion of the round anyway.
5. The Bears have identified Mitch Trubisky as a true QB1, the new quarterback to lead the franchise back to the promised land. The Browns draft Garrett, the 49ers draft Thomas, and the Bears get their man despite standing pat at #3.
6. The Bears have identified Deshaun Watson as a true QB1, the new quarterback to lead the franchise back to the promised land. The Browns draft Garrett, the 49ers draft Thomas, and the Bears get their man despite standing pat at #3.
7. The Bears deeply dislike the quarterbacks in the class, opting to roll the dice with Mike Glennon and try again in the 2018 draft. The Bears trade down to the back-end of the top-ten and take whoever is left among DE Jonathan Allen, S Malik Hooker, S Jamal Adams, CB Marshon Lattimore, DE Derek Barnett, and TE O.J. Howard.
8. The Bears sit at #3 and draft their favorite among S Malik Hooker, DE Solomon Thomas, CB Marshon Lattimore, and DE Jonathan Allen.
9. The Bears like but don't love most of the draft's top prospects, so they trade way down to #25 with a desperate Texans franchise in need of a new quarterback to save some jobs that has identified Trubisky as that man. Unfortunately, the Bears "only" get Houston's 2017 first rounder (#25), their 2017 second rounder (#57), and their 2018 first rounder. After completing the deal, Pace immediately realizes that he got much too little in the exchange and the Bears complicate matters by overdrafting Utah OT Garett Bolles. At least they added picks.
10. The Bears have identified Mitch Trubisky as a true QB1, the new quarterback to lead the franchise back to the promised land. Desperate to make sure they land him, the Bears trade up to the #1 pick, surrendering their 2018 first-round selection in the process as a premium to get the Browns to pass on Trubisky and Garrett. The Bears are right about Trubisky.
11. The Bears decide that a strong safety is going to be the player who beefs up their rebuild, so they take Jamal Adams at #3, rendering Adams the highest-drafted safety ever despite his underwhelming combine showing.
12. The Bears think that having a stable of elite running backs is the missing piece, so they draft Leonard Fournette. Yikes.
13. The Bears decide that they desperately need a big pass catcher, locking in on WR Mike Williams at #3. This just two months removed from letting Alshon Jeffery walk for nothing.
14. The Bears have identified Mitch Trubisky as a true QB1, the new quarterback to lead the franchise back to the promised land. Desperate to make sure they land him, the Bears trade up to the #1 pick, surrendering their 2018 first-round selection in the process as a premium to get the Browns to pass on Trubisky and Garrett. The Bears are wrong about Trubisky.
15. The Bears draft Patrick Mahomes at any point before the third round in the 2017 draft, ushering in the new era of Bears football, one that looks suspiciously like the old era of Bears football helmed by Jay Cutler 2.0.
1. The Browns draft Mitch Trubisky at #1, the 49ers draft Solomon Thomas at #2, and Myles Garrett incredibly falls to #3, where the Bears scoop him up before he enjoys a 15-year Hall of Fame run in Chicago.
2. The Browns draft Myles Garrett at #1 but desperately want to get Mitch Trubisky, too, so they use the outdated pick value chart (and not the new Chase Stuart model), trading the #12 pick and both of their second-round picks (#33 and #52) to the Bears for #3. The Bears are ecstatic when Ohio State safety Malik Hooker's injury concerns scare away a few other teams, and they gobble up the electric free safety at #12. Just before the night ends, the Bears jump back into the first round, trading their own second-round pick (#36) and their third-round pick (#67) to the Cowboys for the 28th overall pick, where the Bears grab QB-of-the-future DeShone Kizer before he slips to the Steelers at #30. Over the course of the following day, the Bears auction off #33 overall, recouping a third-round pick in exchange for moving down a few slots in round two.
3. The Browns draft Mitch Trubisky at #1 and the 49ers put #2 up for sale. Despite a flurry of interest, the 49ers want to make sure that they can get Solomon Thomas, so they flip with the Bears for #3 and #67 overall. The Bears are ecstatic with Garrett.
4. The Bears have identified DeShone Kizer as a true QB1, the new quarterback to lead the franchise back to the promised land. The rest of the NFL disagrees, enabling the Bears to trade down multiple times, acquiring a slew of picks in the process and getting Kizer in the mid-to-late portion of the round anyway.
5. The Bears have identified Mitch Trubisky as a true QB1, the new quarterback to lead the franchise back to the promised land. The Browns draft Garrett, the 49ers draft Thomas, and the Bears get their man despite standing pat at #3.
6. The Bears have identified Deshaun Watson as a true QB1, the new quarterback to lead the franchise back to the promised land. The Browns draft Garrett, the 49ers draft Thomas, and the Bears get their man despite standing pat at #3.
7. The Bears deeply dislike the quarterbacks in the class, opting to roll the dice with Mike Glennon and try again in the 2018 draft. The Bears trade down to the back-end of the top-ten and take whoever is left among DE Jonathan Allen, S Malik Hooker, S Jamal Adams, CB Marshon Lattimore, DE Derek Barnett, and TE O.J. Howard.
8. The Bears sit at #3 and draft their favorite among S Malik Hooker, DE Solomon Thomas, CB Marshon Lattimore, and DE Jonathan Allen.
9. The Bears like but don't love most of the draft's top prospects, so they trade way down to #25 with a desperate Texans franchise in need of a new quarterback to save some jobs that has identified Trubisky as that man. Unfortunately, the Bears "only" get Houston's 2017 first rounder (#25), their 2017 second rounder (#57), and their 2018 first rounder. After completing the deal, Pace immediately realizes that he got much too little in the exchange and the Bears complicate matters by overdrafting Utah OT Garett Bolles. At least they added picks.
10. The Bears have identified Mitch Trubisky as a true QB1, the new quarterback to lead the franchise back to the promised land. Desperate to make sure they land him, the Bears trade up to the #1 pick, surrendering their 2018 first-round selection in the process as a premium to get the Browns to pass on Trubisky and Garrett. The Bears are right about Trubisky.
11. The Bears decide that a strong safety is going to be the player who beefs up their rebuild, so they take Jamal Adams at #3, rendering Adams the highest-drafted safety ever despite his underwhelming combine showing.
12. The Bears think that having a stable of elite running backs is the missing piece, so they draft Leonard Fournette. Yikes.
13. The Bears decide that they desperately need a big pass catcher, locking in on WR Mike Williams at #3. This just two months removed from letting Alshon Jeffery walk for nothing.
14. The Bears have identified Mitch Trubisky as a true QB1, the new quarterback to lead the franchise back to the promised land. Desperate to make sure they land him, the Bears trade up to the #1 pick, surrendering their 2018 first-round selection in the process as a premium to get the Browns to pass on Trubisky and Garrett. The Bears are wrong about Trubisky.
15. The Bears draft Patrick Mahomes at any point before the third round in the 2017 draft, ushering in the new era of Bears football, one that looks suspiciously like the old era of Bears football helmed by Jay Cutler 2.0.
At Least the Bears Get to Participate in the Draft
Ryan Pace gets an "F" for this offseason so far. He needed to use some of his massive cap space to secure some elite talent for his improving roster, yet he only managed to acquire a group of space-fillers in QB Mike Glennon, TE Dion Sims, CB Prince Amukamara, SS Quintin Demps, CB Marcus Cooper, and WR Markus Wheaton. It's particularly telling that none of these players secured anything in excess of a glorified one-year deal: Glennon is the only player signed by the Bears with more than $1M of dead money on his contract should he be released next offseason, and even Glennon got far less guaranteed money than I expected, perhaps a result of the dearth of a market for him.
Some of the players listed above may turn out to be good fits. Some may stick around for the subsequent year(s) on their contracts. But none were brought in to significantly alter the talent level of the roster, hence Pace's failing free agency grade.
Alas, the draft offers a shot at redemption. Last year, Pace executed every draft fan's dream when he traded the 41st pick to Buffalo for picks 49 and 117 in addition to a 2017 fourth-round pick. Then he doubled down on the dream, spinning and trading 49 to Seattle for 56 and 124 before ultimately selecting a player with the look of a long-term solution in lineman Cody Whitehair. He undid some of this good work when he traded 117 along with 206 to the Rams for 113, but at least Nick Kwiatkoski looked like a possible rotation player as a rookie.
Pace enters the 2017 draft with a full allotment of seven selections, though the Bears have a pair of fourth rounders and no sixth rounder (as a result of the misguided Khari Lee trade - trading a sixth-round pick for a player that was available as an undrafted free agent six months earlier is a tough pill to swallow).
In 2017, the mantra remains the same: trade down, almost without regard to the package coming back. The Bears roster is still a couple of churns away from having enough talent to compete for a championship, so adding a depth of useful bodies is key. Trading down - or even trading away the club's top pick entirely for future considerations - should be the goal. If the Bears can get their hands on the type of package that the Titans or Browns got last year in exchange for trading halfway down in the first round, they should do it in an instant. The top quarterbacks in this draft class all figure to be available in the middle portion of the first round (possibly excepting Mitch Trubisky), and both DeShone Kizer and Deshuan Watson are likely to take a couple of years to be ready to lead a playoff push. If the Bears can trade down to the middle of the round with a team in search of a key upgrade like the Colts, Bucs, or Titans, it's a slam dunk move.
Caveat: if Myles Garrett is inexplicably available at #3, he has to be the pick. But he won't be, so that's irrelevant.
Of course, every team wants to trade down, so let's assume that the Bears keep their full allotment of picks. I don't want to go too in-depth on a bunch of players right now, so instead I'll bunch the possibilities into three groups: good picks, neutral picks, and bad picks. Here goes:
GOOD
OLB Myles Garrett: elite player
S Malik Hooker: I don't love a safety at #3, but Hooker is an impact talent as an incredible athlete with sideline-to-sideline speed and excellent ball skills. Sign me up.
QB Mitch Trubisky: if the front office believes that he's the guy, he's a fine pick at #3
NEUTRAL
DE Soloman Thomas: great player, poor 3-4 fit
DE Jonathan Allen: good player, lots of injuries
CB Marshon Lattimore: great player, lots of injuries
OLB Derek Barnett: he'd be overdrafted at #3, but you can never have too much of a pass rush
QB DeShone Kizer: I love Kizer, but most seem to have him in the mid-to-late first round. #3 is much too rich.
BAD
QB Patrick Mahomes: Jay Cutler 2.0
QB Deshaun Watson: an intriguing player but one who should be available 30 picks later
SS Jamal Adams: drafting a SS at #3 is a whiff, particularly in a pass-first league
WR Mike Williams: letting Alshon walk then drafting Williams would be an indictment of Pace's sensibility
RB Leonard Fournette: no RB this high
RB Christian McCaffrey: ditto Fournette
DE Taco Charlton: nowhere near productive enough on the actual football field
Most of the same targets that I've written about in previous pieces are attractive elsewhere in the draft, though some have moved up a round or so (like Washington CB Kevin King) while others have dropped a round (like Michigan State DE Malik McDowell).
In the end, there are really only two ways for Pace to mess up this draft. First, he can stay at #3 and draft one of Mahomes, Watson, Adams, Williams, Fournette, McCaffrey, or Charlton. Second, he can trade up, an inexcusable move for a team so light on talent. That's it. Just about anything else will be a good result for a franchise desperately in need of a talent infusion.
Some of the players listed above may turn out to be good fits. Some may stick around for the subsequent year(s) on their contracts. But none were brought in to significantly alter the talent level of the roster, hence Pace's failing free agency grade.
Alas, the draft offers a shot at redemption. Last year, Pace executed every draft fan's dream when he traded the 41st pick to Buffalo for picks 49 and 117 in addition to a 2017 fourth-round pick. Then he doubled down on the dream, spinning and trading 49 to Seattle for 56 and 124 before ultimately selecting a player with the look of a long-term solution in lineman Cody Whitehair. He undid some of this good work when he traded 117 along with 206 to the Rams for 113, but at least Nick Kwiatkoski looked like a possible rotation player as a rookie.
Pace enters the 2017 draft with a full allotment of seven selections, though the Bears have a pair of fourth rounders and no sixth rounder (as a result of the misguided Khari Lee trade - trading a sixth-round pick for a player that was available as an undrafted free agent six months earlier is a tough pill to swallow).
In 2017, the mantra remains the same: trade down, almost without regard to the package coming back. The Bears roster is still a couple of churns away from having enough talent to compete for a championship, so adding a depth of useful bodies is key. Trading down - or even trading away the club's top pick entirely for future considerations - should be the goal. If the Bears can get their hands on the type of package that the Titans or Browns got last year in exchange for trading halfway down in the first round, they should do it in an instant. The top quarterbacks in this draft class all figure to be available in the middle portion of the first round (possibly excepting Mitch Trubisky), and both DeShone Kizer and Deshuan Watson are likely to take a couple of years to be ready to lead a playoff push. If the Bears can trade down to the middle of the round with a team in search of a key upgrade like the Colts, Bucs, or Titans, it's a slam dunk move.
Caveat: if Myles Garrett is inexplicably available at #3, he has to be the pick. But he won't be, so that's irrelevant.
Of course, every team wants to trade down, so let's assume that the Bears keep their full allotment of picks. I don't want to go too in-depth on a bunch of players right now, so instead I'll bunch the possibilities into three groups: good picks, neutral picks, and bad picks. Here goes:
GOOD
OLB Myles Garrett: elite player
S Malik Hooker: I don't love a safety at #3, but Hooker is an impact talent as an incredible athlete with sideline-to-sideline speed and excellent ball skills. Sign me up.
QB Mitch Trubisky: if the front office believes that he's the guy, he's a fine pick at #3
NEUTRAL
DE Soloman Thomas: great player, poor 3-4 fit
DE Jonathan Allen: good player, lots of injuries
CB Marshon Lattimore: great player, lots of injuries
OLB Derek Barnett: he'd be overdrafted at #3, but you can never have too much of a pass rush
QB DeShone Kizer: I love Kizer, but most seem to have him in the mid-to-late first round. #3 is much too rich.
BAD
QB Patrick Mahomes: Jay Cutler 2.0
QB Deshaun Watson: an intriguing player but one who should be available 30 picks later
SS Jamal Adams: drafting a SS at #3 is a whiff, particularly in a pass-first league
WR Mike Williams: letting Alshon walk then drafting Williams would be an indictment of Pace's sensibility
RB Leonard Fournette: no RB this high
RB Christian McCaffrey: ditto Fournette
DE Taco Charlton: nowhere near productive enough on the actual football field
Most of the same targets that I've written about in previous pieces are attractive elsewhere in the draft, though some have moved up a round or so (like Washington CB Kevin King) while others have dropped a round (like Michigan State DE Malik McDowell).
In the end, there are really only two ways for Pace to mess up this draft. First, he can stay at #3 and draft one of Mahomes, Watson, Adams, Williams, Fournette, McCaffrey, or Charlton. Second, he can trade up, an inexcusable move for a team so light on talent. That's it. Just about anything else will be a good result for a franchise desperately in need of a talent infusion.
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