Taking Stock of the Chicago Cubs

In advance of next week's Winter Meetings in Orlando and partly as a result of the flurry of activity on Tuesday, my brother and I have enjoyed an aggressive back-and-forth regarding the state of the Cubs. We have approached the current status of the franchise from different points of view. While we both believe that genuine contention lies in 2016 with a strongly competitive team capable of progressing early and competing in 2015, we disagree on what current steps should be taken to help the team reach that goal. Or at least we used to.

I have repeatedly contended that this offseason represents the best opportunity for big-time upgrading given the presence of marquee talent on the market and the club's guaranteed protected #4 overall selection in next June's draft. The opposing view? The 2014 Cubs aren't going to compete yet, so what's the point of spending now instead of later?

There are plenty of business reasons for spending now with a trio standing out. First, as happened with the Yankees last year, attendance is way down at Wrigley Field. After Cubs fans tasted winning somewhat regularly in the 2000s, the 2010s have been a massive letdown. It would certainly help to pack the ballpark again.

The other two business reasons are more important to the team's bottom line. The second reason: a competitive team that generates interest from Chicagoans could significantly increase the odds of obtaining city approval for major renovations of the stadium and Wrigleyville area. And third, the club's television rights contract is up for grabs in 12 months. Higher ratings equal big dollars there.

But even with all of that in the open, the baseball reasons for spending now instead of next year are extremely compelling. In order to convey that in full, three realities must be clearly understood:

1. The Cubs are historically bad and devoid of talent at the MLB level, having just lost the most games ever at the MLB level over a two year stretch;
2. There is serious, impact talent in the pipeline set to reach Wrigley Field in the 2014 and 2015 seasons; and
3. Unlike in years past, the Cubs do not have significant financial resources committed well into the future.

The third point merits a deeper look. In latter portion of the last decade, the club made a series of massive, long-term salary commitments to players including Carlos Zambrano (5 years, $90M), Ryan Dempster (4 years, $52M), Ted Lilly (4 years, $40M), Jason Marquis (3 years, $21M), Carlos Marmol (3 years, $20M), Alfonso Soriano (8 years, $136M), Aramis Ramirez (5 years, $75M), Derrek Lee (5 years, $65M), Kosuke Fukudome (4 years, $48M), and Milton Bradley (3 years, $30M).

The current Cubs? They carry only one such deal at this point: the remaining 3 years and $33M on Edwin Jackson's deal (I am presuming that the signing bonus was paid up front). There is some dead money on the 2014 payroll, namely $14M for Alfonso Soriano, $1.2M for Gerardo Concepcion (also in 2015), and roughly $500K for Scott Hairston.

This is a franchise in a much different position than it was in three years ago when the payroll ballooned to $144.3M for a 75-87 disappointment.

With this foundational understanding of the state of the franchise, my brother made a comment that spurred a detailed comeback from me. I have criticized him repeatedly for not being willing to take bold steps to improve the team this offseason. Translation: he doesn't want the Cubs to spend any money in free agency, instead preferring bargain bin shopping and trades. I have countered with the reasons given below, as well as the idea that the team lacks sufficient talent to trade for impact talent: when you're short on talent everywhere, you can't use what little you have to plug a hole because it just creates another one.

Anyway, in response to my questioning why he doesn't want the team to win in 2014 if possible, he rose the idea of the team signing Robinson Cano, Masahiro Tanaka, Matt Garza, Curtis Granderson, and Grant Balfour this offseason so that we could enjoy watching a competitive team in 2014, lamenting that it would be against the team's long-term interest. He said, "I know it's dumb to make some major expenditures with where we are at this point."

And that was it; I had my opening.

See, it's not nearly as crazy as it sounds for the Cubs to go on a massive spending spree. Here are projected contracts required to sign the five free agents listed above:

Cano: 8 years, $200M
Tanaka: 7 years, $110M plus $20M posting fee (given the new cap, the player will get more)
Garza: 5 years, $80M
Granderson: 4 years, $62M
Balfour: 3 years, $24M

The Granderson number feels a bit high while Garza may be a bit low; regardless, these deals are in the ballpark.

There's no way the Cubs could actually absorb such enormous expenditures, right? Here's a look at the 2014 roster without any major additions:

LF Lake ($.5M)
SS Castro ($6M)
1B Rizzo ($3M)
RF Schierholtz ($3.8M)
CF Sweeney ($1.5M)
C   Castillo ($.5M)
3B Valbuena ($1.5M)
2B Barney ($2M)

SP1 Samardzija ($4.9M)
SP2 Jackson ($13M)
SP3 Wood ($3.6M)
SP4 Arrieta ($.5M)
SP5 Rusin ($.5M)

Bench: C Kottaras ($1M), INF Murphy ($1M), 3B Olt ($.5M), OF Bogusevic ($.5M), McDonald ($.5M)
Bullpen: Strop ($1M), Russell ($1.7M), Wright ($1.5M), Parker ($.5M), Vizcaino ($.5M), Arrieta ($.5M), Grimm ($.5M), Villanueva ($5M)
Dead Money/Prospects: Soriano ($14M), Fujikawa ($4.5M), Hairston ($.5M), Soler ($2M), Concepcion ($1.2M)

The lineup costs just $18.8M, the bench $3.5M, the rotation $22.5M, the bullpen $11.2M, and dead money and prospects $22.2M for a total of $78.2M. That's a really terrible roster with a payroll that would have ranked 22nd in 2013, just behind Kansas City and ahead of Minnesota. One of these is not like the others...

Well, after that sobering look at our likely future, here's a look at the 2014 roster with those big salaries added in (I will amortize the posting fee over the life of Tanaka's contract given that I expect the team to finagle his salaries to accomplish the same):

LF Lake ($.5M) / Schierholtz ($3.8M)
SS Castro ($6M)
2B Cano ($25M)
1B Rizzo ($3M)
RF Granderson ($15.5M)
CF Sweeney ($1.5M)
C   Castillo ($.5M)
3B Valbuena ($1.5M)

SP1 Samardzija ($4.9M)
SP2 Tanaka ($18.6M)
SP3 Garza ($16M)
SP4 Jackson ($13M)
SP5 Wood ($3.6M)

Bench: C Kottaras ($1M), INF Murphy ($1M), INF Barney ($2M), OF Bogusevic ($.5M), OF Schierholtz (above)
Bullpen: Balfour ($8M), Strop ($1M), Russell ($1.7M), Wright ($1.5M), Parker ($.5M), Vizcaino ($.5M), Arrieta ($.5M)
Dead Money/Prospects: Soriano ($14M), Villanueva ($5M), Fujikawa ($4.5M), Hairston ($.5M), Soler ($2M), Concepcion ($1.2M)

For that 25-man roster, the Cubs would spend $53.5M on the lineup, $8.3M on the bench, $56.1M on the rotation, $13.7M on the bullpen, and $27.2M in dead money and prospect contracts for a total of $158.8M.

The 2010 payroll was $144.3M, so this isn't exactly uncharted territory for the Cubs. This projected number also misses high compared to what the team would realistically do if the five free agents were brought aboard: Villanueva is expendable with Chris Rusin and Justin Grimm available for spot starts and long relief, and Barney is unnecessary with marquee starters at 2B and SS, leaving the club free to unload both salaries for low-level prospects or even just the salary relief alone. Removing that $7M and replacing it with a pair of minimum-salary bodies leaves a payroll of $152.8M. That 2014 club is obviously exponentially better than the product the team is likely to put on the field.

Just as importantly, those players augment the talent the club has coming up through the minors as opposed to blocking it. Here's a look at the 2015 roster with approximate arbitration raises and re-signing Wesley Wright for $1M beyond his 2014 figure:

CF Lake ($.5M)
3B Baez ($.5M)
2B Cano ($25M)
LF Bryant ($.5M)
1B Rizzo ($5M)
RF Granderson ($15.5M)
SS Castro ($7M)
C   Castillo ($1.5M)

SP1 Samardzija ($10M)
SP2 Tanaka ($18.6M)
SP3 Garza ($16M)
SP4 Jackson ($13M)
SP5 Wood ($5.5M)

Bench: C Kottaras ($1.3M), IF Alcantara ($.5M), 3B/OF Olt ($.5M), OF Sweeney ($1.5M), OF Szczur ($.5M)
Bullpen: Balfour ($8M), Strop ($1.5M), Russell ($2.2M), Wright ($2.5M), Parker ($.5M), Vizcaino ($1.5M), Arrieta ($1.5M)
Dead Money/Prospects: Fujikawa ($.5M), Soler ($3M), Concepcion ($1.2M)

That roster? The lineup is $55.5M, the bench $4.3M, the rotation $63.1M, the bullpen $17.7M, and dead money and prospect contracts are down to $4.7M. The total? $145.3M.

Under that scenario, as of the end of 2015, the Cubs would have the following guaranteed salary commitments remaining:

Cano: 6 years, $150M
Rizzo: 4 years, $32M (includes $2M paid for 2020 buyout of team option)
Castro: 4 years, $38M (includes $1M paid for 2020 buyout of team option)
Tanaka: 5 years, $92.9M
Garza: 3 years, $48M
Granderson: 2 years, $31M
Jackson: 1 year, $13M
Balfour: 1 year, $8M
Soler: 5 years, $18M
Sweeney: Buyout of team option, $.5M

That 2015 team has the potential for an explosive lineup, top to bottom, and some serious pitching every day. Samardzija would hit free agency and a group of (hopefully) contributors would be well into the arbitration system including Strop, Castillo, Vizcaino, Wood, and Arrieta, but there would be increased flexibility to acquire talent via trade given the amount of in-house options. More importantly, there would be a lot of 2014 and 2015 wins in the rearview mirror.

The 2014 payroll of $158.8M would have ranked fifth in baseball in 2013, roughly $1M behind Philadelphia and just a hair beyond Boston. However, given the rosy long-term outlook for the club, the team payroll likely wouldn't reach the $159M figure again for a few more years given that the team's biggest talent acquisitions will come in the form of cheap, internal options: Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Albert Almora, Arismendy Alcantara, Christian Villanueva, Kyle Hendricks, Pierce Johnson, CJ Edwards, Corey Black, Ivan Pineyro, and even former top prospects turned question marks in Mike Olt and Brett Jackson. There is a ton of talent on the way that will actually help to decrease the payroll over time.

To be clear: I am not proposing that the Cubs sign Cano, Tanaka, Garza, Granderson, and Balfour in the next month. That would cost an enormous amount of someone else's cash plus the club's 2nd and 3rd round draft picks next June. But Cano, Tanaka, and Garza for cash and a 2nd rounder? Yeah, I'm all for it! Removing Granderson and Balfour from the above calculation and replacing them with minimum salary bodies, the 2014 payroll drops to $136.3M and the 2015 number is down to $122.8M. A $122.8M payroll for the Chicago stinkin' Cubs? That's eminently doable: the Cubs were at $134M or more from 2009-2011 and $118.3M in 2008.

The $122.8M figure would have figured tenth in 2013 behind the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox, Tigers, Giants, Angels, Rangers, and White Sox. The Blue Jays, Cardinals, Nationals, and Reds would have all been within $12M of that number too. By 2015, given inflation and the mounds of cash pouring into the game, a $122.8M payroll should be close to the median figure in the league.

The Cubs' actual payroll peers in 2013? With their revenue rankings in parentheses, the three teams spending just more than the Cubs were St. Louis (7), Washington (13), and Cincinnati (17). The three spending just less were Baltimore (19), Milwaukee (20), and Arizona (24). The Cubs? The Cubs were fourth in revenue.

The moral of this story: don't think that it's crazy for the Cubs to go after a 25-year-old potential #2 starter, a top-2 position player over the last four years (Cano trails only Miguel Cabrera from 2010-2013) who plays a premium position, and another #2/#3 starting pitcher at the same time. It's just absolutely not crazy, not for a team that plays in Chicago owned by billionaires in a sport with millions of additional dollars coming in every year. The Cubs could add Cano or Tanaka using just the amount of increased revenue they'll enjoy in 2014 as a result of MLB's new national television contract. Cano, Tanaka, and Garza would all supplement, not block, the core of prospects making its way to Chicago in the coming years.

The club should actually have even more spending flexibility in 2014 than it may have had without its international shopping spree in 2013. Thanks to the additions of teens Eloy Jimenez, Gleyber Torres, Jen-Ho Tseng, Jefferson Mejia, Erling Moreno, and Johan Matos, the Cubs spent at least $7.8M on international amateur signing bonuses in 2013. While the team will still spend internationally in 2014, their expected bonus outlay is severely restricted by the $250K maximum bonus that the team may offer as a result of the new CBA. Thus, expect the Cubs to spend something like $2M-$3M on amateur targets. If the team also signs two compensation free agents like Cano and Granderson, the Cubs would forfeit their 2nd and 3rd round draft picks and the corresponding bonus pool allocation. Accounting for slight inflation, those picks would be worth about $1.3M and $720K. Taken together, the team would have about $7M less to spend on amateur talent in 2014 than it did in 2013, cash that may be reallocated to other avenues.

There's one additional factor that must be considered having looked at all of the above: the financial state of the team. Much has been made of the heavily debt-financed purchase of the team by the Ricketts family. Thus, any available figures should be taken with a very large grain of salt. Nonetheless, Forbes currently values the Cubs as MLB's fourth most valuable franchise at a value of $1B. The team's 2013 revenue of $274M also ranked fourth. The $32.1M operating income ranked first (although you may wisely question the utility of operating income). Unfortunately, the club also ranks first in a much less appealing category: debt-to-value ratio. The 58% figure is one of just three at 50% or higher and many clubs are in the single digits or at 0%.

Still, the team's revenue increases have been largely immune to the on-field product, increasing steadily from $156M to $274M over the past decade that included a pair of division flags and a quartet of top-10 draft picks.

The team doesn't have to spend its money this offseason and it most likely won't. But don't confuse yourself: it's not crazy to think that they have the resources to do so while fitting acquisitions squarely into gaping holes in the short- and long-term plans. The rule of thumb of baseball payrolls is to spend roughly 50% of revenue. Applying that figure would leave the Cubs with a $137M payroll in 2014, plus half of any gains.

Still think a $152.8M payroll is crazy?

Chicago Cubs Offseason Wish List

Like every fan, I want the Cubs to win, and I'd prefer that the team do so sooner rather than later. I also recognize that building a championship level team takes time, unless the Cubs are interested in a Dodgers-style free-for-all. Given that the current regime has shown no inclination to spend well beyond the luxury tax threshold (or even close to it for that matter), here's the series of realistic moves I'd like to see the team pursue this winter with an eye toward competing in 2015 and beyond.

I'll start with the move that has a less than 1% chance of happening. I'll then move along assuming that said move does not come to fruition. Unfortunately, I started this list about a week and a half ago, so just take yourself back to mid-November in your mind.

1. Transaction: Sign 2B Robinson Cano for 8 years, $208M
Realistic?: <1%
Rationale: The pendulum finally seems to have swung too far against free agent talent. Three factors are dominating the discussion on Cano. First, the $310M figure floated by his apparently inept representation. Second, the reluctance of seemingly every team to commit big dollars to players into their mid-30s. Third, everyone appears resigned to the reality that Cano will not leave the Bronx.

Here's why folks are off base: Cano is different. He's not different in that he won't age. Of course he will age. Barring a deluge of HGH in his tap water, Cano's talent will fade over time. Paying $26M to a 37-year-old Cano doesn't sound appealing. So what exactly makes Cano different? His position. Cano is no Darwin Barney with the glove, but he's a very capable second baseman. Whereas Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton clog up first base and corner outfield spots with their rapidly declining bats, Cano fills the much weaker keystone. Even if he regresses to the point that he is a league average bat, he does so at a position with below average offensive output league-wide. Obviously, if he continues to hit, he is only that much more valuable given the scarcity of quality bats at second base. He does not offer speed, so his bat needs to carry the load. But who better to bet on than a high average, low strikeout, average walk, high power second baseman? Cano also fits beautifully given the Cubs' plethora of big, right-handed power bats coming up through the system. Arismendy Alcantara represents the only viable second base solution, and he's hardly enough to justify passing on Cano.
Why It Will/Won't Happen: It won't happen because of cash. There are lots of reasons to be wary of the Cubs as big spenders. The Ricketts family heavily debt-financed their purchase of the squad: the Cubs are one of only five teams with a debt-to-value ratio of at least 40% and they lead the league at 58% (they're also 4th in revenue and 1st in operating income). Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer may be completely smitten with the concept of building exclusively from within. Or perhaps the team prefers next offseason's crop of targets (if so, that's a poor decision). Whatever the reason, the club isn't willing to spend the amount necessary to nab Cano. I wish they would: it's not my money and he's a marquee talent with tremendous positional value.

More importantly, at some point this offseason, other clubs will realize that Cano has shifted from unattainable at $310M to eminently in play at $200M. When that happens, bidding will heat up and Cano should be able to nab something like 9 years, $245M. The Cubs aren't going to go that high.

2. Transaction: Trade 3B Luis Valbuena to the New York Yankees for a low-level prospect
Realistic?: 100%
Rationale: The Yankees find themselves in a holding pattern at the hot corner. Alex Rodriguez may very well be their everyday third baseman next year; he may also ride off into the shunned sunset, never playing another game at Yankee Stadium. In either scenario, Valbuena makes plenty of sense for the Bombers. Valbuena provides exceptional defense with the ability to play (a presumably adequate) second base if necessary. Offensively, he is batting average challenged, but draws enough walks to get on base adequately with good power to the pull side. To recap, he's a glove-first, lefty third baseman with solid pull power. He was built for the Yankees, either as a hedge against A-Rod or a perfect bridge from A-Rod to the team's next big third baseman. Valbuena comes with the added bonus of depressed salary given that his primary attribute - his defense - is traditionally undervalued in the arbitration process. For a team screaming about the luxury tax, Valbuena represents an excellent all-around fit.

For a team that struggled to fill the third base spot for decades after the departure of Ron Santo, the Cubs find themselves completely stocked at the position. The team's top two prospects - Javier Baez and Kris Bryant - may both see third base in their defensive futures. On top of that duo, Mike Olt (AAA), Christian Villanueva (AA), and Jeimer Candelario (A) all rank among the club's better prospects. With so many potential options and a window that opens later rather than sooner, Valbuena is a placeholder. Given that he is not in the club's long-term plans, the team would be well served to flip him while his value is decently high. While Valbuena wouldn't figure to bring back much in a deal - think a lesser Corey Black-type - perhaps the Cubs could get creative. The Cubs could easily absorb the $3M the Yankees owe Vernon Wells into their 2014 payroll, even if the club simply released Wells upon completing the deal. Offering Brian Cashman the chance to improve his third base spot while pulling off a net payroll deduction? That might just pry a decent prospect, someone like Jose Campos after his elbow issues have darkened his prospect star.
Why It Will/Won't Happen: This move makes too much sense to me. I haven't been able to talk myself out of it. Valbuena is a safe acquisition for the Yankees as a hedge against departures from A-Rod and/or Cano. The Cubs don't need Valbuena and would be well served to cash in on his late-20s peak performance. I think that this move will happen because the Cubs recognize their logjam at third base while the Yankees appreciate the need for cheaper, productive infield talent even if the ceiling is low.

3. Transaction: Trade OF Albert Almora to Miami Marlins for SP Andrew Heaney
Realistic?: 10%
Rationale: This one is simple: the Cubs are flush with positional talent without pitching depth. The Marlins have Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick pushing to the Majors but no other positional talent, yet the franchise is loaded with pitching. Why not take a bit from each team's surplus to even out the distribution among positions?

*Disclaimer: I haven't liked Almora since before we drafted him. It kills me that the club took such a low ceiling player at #6 with such an obvious need for pitching. Almora is described as a guy who can reach .290/.340/.450 lines with average center field defense and some running ability. Yipee? I'd right the wrong from draft day 2012 and flip the ninth and sixth picks.
Why It Will/Won't Happen: Teams just don't make prospect-for-prospect deals. They just don't. This one makes about as much sense as any you can imagine. My mind tingles with expanding the possibilities (Almora and Alcantara to Miami for Heaney and Jose Urena?). But I realize the unlikelihood.

4. Transaction: Trade SP Jeff Samardzija to the Toronto Blue Jays for pitching prospects
Realistic?: 50%
Rationale: The Cubs presumably would have locked Samardzija into a new deal by now if one was coming. Samardzija has bet on himself and appears to be in line to cash in as a result of going year-to-year. So the team can deal him for pieces that fit the window of contention a bit better and offer a higher overall value.

The rationale for Toronto is even simpler: they're already all-in. After last season's blockbusters with the Marlins and Mets, Toronto has to show something big this year. As it stands, the Jays don't have the rotation horses to do it. Enter a strong #2 option in Samardzija. Shark enables them to fill out their staff to complement their intriguing offense.

Much like the Marlins, the Jays possess a bevy of arms that should interest the Cubs. Aaron Sanchez figures to be off limits, although any deal that includes Sanchez is worthwhile for the Cubs. I'd be surprised to see Samardzija-for-Sanchez straight up, but any pieces coming back beyond Sanchez are gravy to me. Assuming Sanchez sticks with the Jays, a deal including any pair of the following sextet of arms should be enough to entice the Cubs: diminutive 2012 top pick Marcus Stroman, big teen Roberto Osuna, polished high-floor lefty Sean Nolin, massive lefty Matt Smoral, tiny big-armed righty Alberto Tirado, and recovering lefty Daniel Norris.
Why It Will/Won't Happen: I think it is likelier than not that Samardzija gets traded this offseason. Operating in that reality, only a small handful of teams genuinely possess the right combination of win-now approach and pitching depth to match up with the Cubs. The Diamondbacks have the prospects, but I question whether they actually have the need for Samardzija. The Yankees could actually be a strong match for the Cubs with premium prospect catcher Gary Sanchez possibly available in light of Brian McCann's new deal and power arm Jose Ramirez making progress. But the Jays are still the best match of desperation and talent, and I can see the regime flipping Samardzija if it means 12 controllable years of Norris and Osuna.

5. Transaction: Sign one of the second-tier free agent starting pitchers among Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, and Ubaldo Jimenez
Realistic?: 20%
Rationale: Last offseason's signing of Edwin Jackson was an admission: the Cubs had no pitching in their system. In order to compete at the highest level, the team needs some pitching.

That's where one of these pitchers comes in. If the Cubs do trade Samardzija, the rotation will have only Jackson, Travis Wood, Jake Arrieta, Justin Grimm, Carlos Villanueva, Chris Rusin and Kyle Hendricks to fight for spots. While that group isn't exciting for 2014, it isn't any more exciting for 2015. While the farm figures to have a few arms pushing for jobs by then, the likes of Pierce Johnson and Neil Ramirez aren't likely to push for All-Star bids. As I mentioned earlier, championship level teams are built over time and this group of free agent starters offers the ability to add a helpful arm for only cash. Garza figures to obtain the highest commitment (4 years, $72M) while Nolasco will be paid as a plus innings eater (4 years, $60M) and Jimenez is this winter's biggest wild card (anywhere from 3 years, $40M to 5 years, $90M). My preference is for Garza given his ceiling while Jimenez at least intrigues.
Why It Will/Won't Happen: I could see any of these additions from the Cubs perspective. But for the player? The money will have to escalate quite a bit to justify a guaranteed year (or more) of losing during the player's prime. There's also heavy risk with Garza (injuries) and Jimenez (velocity). Strangely, I don't think any of these signings are more or less likely depending on what happens with Samardzija.

6. Transaction: Sign CF Jacoby Ellsbury for 7 years, $141M
Realistic?: 15%
Rationale: This one is really simple. The Cubs have tons of bats coming that can play in the infield or in the outfield corners. But in center? If you like Albert Almora, I suppose he could fill that role. I'm just not a believer, so give me Ellsbury. He should slot into the franchise seamlessly given the need for a top-of-the-order bat, a plus outfield defender, and some speed. Any of the club's hitting prospects should fit 2-5, but none of them are all that great atop the lineup. Ellsbury just makes too much sense.
Why It Will/Won't Happen: That's a lot of money for a speed/defense/on-base center fielder in his 30s. The Red Sox have given almost no indication that they plan to retain Ellsbury, a puzzling move for the franchise given what he has meant to them over the years. Power isn't truly a part of his game - his 2011 outburst notwithstanding - and dollars tend to follow homers. Realistically, there are a lot of reasons for this move to happen, but other teams need an impact performer too. I'm not sure that the Cubs will be willing to top the market.

7. Transaction: Tender 2B Darwin Barney for 1 year, $2M
Realistic?: 99%
Rationale: The Cubs need to play someone at second base this year and the non-Barney internal options are...uninspiring. Barney's 2013 offensive output was mortifying to be sure. However, he is bound to improve on those numbers in 2014. His price tag remains reasonably low. More importantly, he can be flipped this summer.
Why It Will/Won't Happen: It's going to happen. The best-case scenario for the club with Barney involves a few months of health with a regressed BABIP leading to a poor offensive line like .260/.305/.350. If Barney pumps out that line with his elite defense at second base, there should be some market for him, at which point the team will have spent about $1M to obtain a low-level prospect. That's not a bad move.

8. Transaction: Sign This Year's Scott Kazmir for 1 year, $500K....or Sign Last Year's Scott Kazmir for 2 years, $15M
Realistic?: 20%
Rationale: The Cubs are still in desperate need of pitching, so finding high upside arms is the top priority this winter. Finding a formerly successful starter who has fallen on hard times makes plenty of sense. The name that came to mind was Texas' Colby Lewis, a formerly solid mid-rotation arm carved up over the last couple of years.

Then again, last year's Scott Kazmir, Scott Kazmir himself, would make plenty of sense even at a much higher cost. Kazmir is a huge lefty power arm, something the Cubs have lacked since...well, forever? Kazmir comes with considerable risk but also considerable upside.
Why It Will/Won't Happen: Strangely, it seems as though the club might avoid this type of pitcher in the aftermath of the Scott Baker 2013 experience. I think they'll go after a somewhat safer option to avoid this level of risk.

9. Transaction: Sign a Couple of Cheap Relivers
Realistic?: 99%
Rationale: The team needs pitching. That includes relief pitching. Grabbing arms from outside the organization makes plenty of sense.
Why It Will/Won't Happen: It's going to happen. I don't think we'll see this regime spend heavily on relief pitching anytime soon. Spending lightly? Certainly.

10. Transaction: Bid $65M for the Right to Negotiate with SP Masahiro Tanaka, then Sign Him for 6 years, $65M
Realistic?: 5%
Rationale: It's the same thing as all of the above pitching explanations: the Cubs need big-time pitching and lots of it. Unfortunately, there's so little talent in the organization that they really can't afford to give up their inexpensive prospect talent in order to acquire said pitching talent. So, instead, they should utilize one resource that should give them a sizable advantage over most of their peers: cash. The Cubs can buy their way into Tanaka. It's possible that a $65M posting fee will be inadequate to secure his services. Regardless, the team has the chance to acquire an MLB-ready 25-year-old #3 or better starter for only cash. Such opportunities are exceedingly rare.
Why It Will/Won't Happen: I think that the Cubs will place a very competitive bid on Tanaka, likely extending beyond $40M in an attempt to negotiate with the hurler. I just don't know if they're got the resources to outbid the Yankees or Dodgers. Unfortunately for the Cubs, those two clubs have a twisted incentive to spend lavishly bidding on Tanaka in lieu of paying an established MLB starter like Garza because the posting fee will not count against the luxury tax. The Cubs are well under the tax threshold, so this factor cuts against the team. I'll be stunned but ecstatic if the Cubs manage to win the bidding for the right to pay Tanaka.

The Kris Bryant Timeline

Since I last posted about the Cubs prospects on July 19, a few good things have happened.

Ok, a monsoon of great things have happened. I'll review all of them in a later offseason post. But today I'd like to focus on arguably the best thing that happened in 2013: with the second overall pick in the draft, the Cubs chose University of San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant. And what a beautiful pick it has been thus far.

Bryant spent a pair of days in the Arizona Rookie League where he recorded just a single double in seven plate appearances. Then he spent three weeks in Boise where he clobbered Northwest League pitching to a .354/.416/.692 line in 77 plate appearances. On the heels of that success, he jumped the Midwest League and headed to Daytona to help the Cubs with their playoff push. Over 62 plate appearances, Bryant mashed at a .333/.387/.719 clip. There were some concerns along the way, namely high strikeout rates and an extremely high BABIP. To be fair, the high BABIP is largely a result of Bryant being many times better than the competition. Nonetheless, Bryant made the most of his 146 regular season plate appearances.

He nabbed 24 additional postseason plate appearances helping the Cubs win the Florida State League. Bryant continued his onslaught of professional pitchers with a .350/.417/.450 line. On the year, Bryant combined to post a .338/.400/.655 line over 160 plate appearances prior to participating in the Arizona Fall League.

Ah, the AFL. Bryant has continued his destruction of opposing pitching. Over 56 plate appearances, Bryant has produced a .400/.446/.920 line. It has reached the point that some fans are wondering how much seasoning he actually needs in the minor leagues based on his prodigious output and domination of solid pitching prospects. With a professional line of .354/.412/.722 in 226 plate appearances, those questions aren't nearly as crazy as one might think.

What do I think the team should do? I'd like to see the Cubs milk an extra year of team control out of Bryant, so any promotion before May 1st won't sit well with me. I'd also like to make sure that he has seen enough advanced breaking pitches prior to reaching Chicago. The worst mistake to make with Bryant is rushing him such that Major League breaking pitches destroy his confidence (remember Corey Patterson everyone?). I'd also like to see what Mike Olt can do with some regular playing time at the hot corner.

However, I think the much more interesting question is this: what will Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein do? Given that they are the ultimate decision makers, their opinions are the only ones that really matter.

With that in mind, I plowed through some data to see what types of insight I could glean into their decision. I looked at two separate sets of information. First, I examined what type of timeline teams have employed with the top collegiate batter taken in each draft over the last few years. Second, I examined what Epstein and Hoyer did in Boston with their top collegiate prospects. The findings offer some help while still leaving room for speculation.

Let's start with the top collegiate position player in each draft.

Year   Position/Name          Draft Slot    MiLB/AFL PAs
2012   C   Mike Zunino          2                  505
2011   3B Anthony Rendon    6                  *420 (319)
2010   SS Christian Colon      4                  **1,864
2009   2B Dustin Ackley        2                   1,012
2008   3B Pedro Alvarez        2                   820
2007   C   Matt Wieters         5                   693
2006   3B Evan Longoria        3                   881
2005   3B Alex Gordon          2                   577
2004   1B Billy Butler             14                 791
2003   2B Rickie Weeks         2                   ***909

*Rendon was first called up to replace the injured Ryan Zimmerman for two weeks. When Zimmerman returned, Rendon went back to the minors for an additional 101 plate appearances before getting the call for good.
**Colon is still in the minors and he's hardly knocking on the door in Kansas City.
***Weeks got 14 September plate appearances in Milwaukee in 2003 after just 92 A-ball plate appearances before spending the next year and a half back working through the minors.

We can learn a few things from this list. First, there isn't a magic number of plate appearances for top picks. Colon was regarded as a safe, fast-track product coming out of Cal-State Fullerton, but he has crawled as he scuffles as a professional. Ackley was also polished coming out of North Carolina to a Mariners team desperate for offense, but he too took over 1,000 trips to the dish before getting the call. For anyone thinking 1,000 plate appearances is some type of magic threshold, let this list prove otherwise. If you can play well as the top collegiate player, you'll get the call. Second, you might just get that call very quickly. Although Rendon is the only player to make it in under 500 plate appearances, plenty of those players moved quickly to their desperate franchises. Third, if we exclude Colon - the one true failure on the list - the average number of plate appearances before a top collegiate pick's debut is 734 with four of players getting fewer than the mean and five getting more.

We now turn to Theo and Jed. They've dealt with their fair share of picks during their run together. Theo presided over the 2003-2011 drafts in Boston with Hoyer accompanying him for 2003-2009. This gets a little trickier because we need to follow the prospects who stayed in the Boston system. As such, we're going to look at the top Boston draftee who made it to MLB in a Red Sox uniform.

Year   Position/Name          Draft Slot    MiLB/AFL PAs
2008   C   Ryan Lavarnway   202                1,627
2007   None
2006   1B Aaron Bates          83                  1,757
2005   OF Jacoby Ellsbury     23                 *1,268 (1,154)
2004   2B Dustin Pedroia       65                  1,277
2003   OF David Murphy       17                 1,764

*Ellsbury received 26 MLB plate appearances due to a Coco Crisp injury before nabbing 114 more plate appearances at Pawtucket prior to being called up for good in September 2007.

Well now. Those numbers look fantastically different. To be fair, none of those players was the top collegiate pick in his respective draft, although both Murphy and Ellsbury were very highly regarded. But there's one very valuable nugget of information that emerges looking particularly at Murphy, Pedroia, and Ellsbury: none of those three needed anywhere near as much minor league development time as they got. But they got it nonetheless. Those Red Sox teams were winning bunches of games, so none of the players really needed to be rushed up the ladder. Still, with MVP-caliber talent in Pedroia and Ellsbury, the pair received over 2,500 minor league PAs. The regime has regularly babied even their more advanced prospects.

I think that there are three takeaway points from this review.

I think that there are three takeaway points from this review.

1. The top collegiate player tends to reach the major leagues very quickly with the average top collegiate position player over the last decade needing just 734 professional plate appearances before making it.
2. The current Cubs front office led by Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer has traditionally taken an extremely conservative approach with position players giving all of their top picks at least 1,200 plate appearances despite their advanced games. It should be noted that none of those Boston picks came in the top half of the first round, let alone at #2 overall.
3. Kris Bryant has been a positively sensational baseball player in 2013. His professional line of .354/.412/.722 in 216 plate appearances is otherworldly. While his professional line is more impressive, particularly given the strong competition at Daytona and in the Arizona Fall League, Bryant's collegiate line of .329/.493/.820 was actually even better on a strict numbers basis not accounting for the talent gap. For his 528 plate appearances in baseball games this year (426 at bats), Bryant has a combined line of .340/.456/.775 with 35 doubles, 6 triples, 46 homers, and 85 walks. It is safe to say that he is much more advanced than any of the other names examined.

With all of that in mind plus the proximity to competing for the Cubs, I think Bryant will end up receiving almost exactly 500 professional plate appearances before making it to Chicago. He should receive roughly another 50 in the AFL bringing him to 276 in 2013. With 224 plate appearances to go to reach 500 and an average of four plate appearances per game, I predict that Bryant will play 56 games for the Tennessee Smokies in 2014 before getting called up to Chicago. If we assume that Bryant plays in 95% of Tennessee's games, it will take him 59 scheduled games to reach that threshold. Tennessee's 59th game occurs on June 3rd, 2014. This date will come very close to the Super Two cutoff in 2014 (the cutoff was 2 years, 119 days of service time in 2013, down significantly from 2 years, 139 days in 2012), so the Cubs will likely hold off a few days longer to ensure that Bryant does not earn the extra trip through arbitration and the potential millions that come with it.

Plus, Tennessee plays a five-game set in Jacksonville that weekend, so I'm selfishly hopeful that they hold off a few more days so I can see Bryant just before he makes the jump.

Bryant has Epstein and Hoyer on a crash course for uncharted territory, but other similar picks provide solid guidance for what the team may do with Bryant. With an eye toward competing for the postseason in 2016 and even as early as 2015, the Cubs and Bryant would both be well served by giving the player his first crack at the highest level in mid-2014...assuming he continues to justify it with his play. That one is up to Bryant and the coaches.

The 2013 NFL Season: the Chicago Bears and NFL Picks

My mind has largely been stuck in baseball mode for a long time now. The Cubs certainly pushed me in that direction with their flurry of June, July, and even August transactions. On top of that, playoff trips from the Boise Hawks, Tennessee Smokies, and particularly the Daytona Cubs has kept me focused on baseball. The Daytona starting pitching trio of Corey Black, C.J. Edwards, and Pierce Johnson has been nothing short of spectacular in the playoffs, going 15 innings, allowing 10 hits, 2 walks, and 0 runs while striking out 21 over their three starts. Needless to say, the team has a whole lot more pitching now than it did in mid-June. As if that wasn't enough, my wonderful wife and I went to Daytona to watch Corey Black's start in the club's first playoff game. At the end of the 8th inning, I got to go have a brief chat with VP of Scouting and Player Development Jason McLeod, Assistant GM Randy Bush, and GM Jed Hoyer.

Immediately before that, I had a brief conversation with an individual ambiguously affiliated with the organization named Kerry Wood. It was a dream come true. I thanked him for his career and for all of the great memories he gave me and my family. I then told him that, even though the game didn't turn out how we had hoped, being in Wrigley Field for his Game 7 dinger in 2003 was quite possibly the best moment of my life prior to the birth of my child. Kerry's response? "Mine too." He must have given out over 100 autographs during the game - I think I got the only autographs of the night from Jed, Randy, and Jason - and every time he shook the person's hand, had a brief conversation with them, and smiled. I'm sure those little interactions got old a long time ago, but he was a champ the whole night. Woody's stature in family lore just got even higher.

But football has crept its way into my brain and Penn State's performance against Syracuse last week - particularly that of true freshman quarterback Christian Hackenberg and hometown kid Stephen Obeng-Agyapong - reminded me just how much I love football season. I think Nittany is going to have a strong year, going either 8-8 or 9-3. I'm just more interested in the Bears.

I have spoken to friends about the Bears season at length, generally coming to the same conclusion: this team is much tougher to peg than recent Bears teams given the amount of turnover on the offensive line, in the linebacking corps, and on the coaching staff. I think the offense will be well served with Marc Trestman's arrival and the defense will produce at a similar level with more production at linebacker and less in the secondary. Here's a very quick look at each position and the schedule, followed by league-wide picks.

Quaterback: Cutler is a QB in a contract year. He's going to be a top-10 QB this year...as long as he doesn't get hurt.
Running Back: Forte and Bush are perfect complements. It's a great position.
Interior Offensive Line: Garza should hang on, Long looks like a man-beast, and Slauson should be adequate. Depth is a concern.
Offensive Tackle: Bushrod is polarizing and Mills just needs to avoid a massive failure. Still a rather shaky position, yet much improved. Jonathan Scott's knee better get healthy quickly.
Tight End: I'm hopeful for Martellus Bennett, although I've never been a big fan of his. I think the team will use one of their top three picks on a TE in the draft.
Wide Receiver: The best position on offense, Marshall and Jeffery are tremendous. Jeffery is going to explode this year. Earl is a perfect #3; hopefully the concussions aren't a huge problem. I'd like to see Hester get on the field for 10 snaps a game in the slot, something that could happen when injuries force the coach's hand.
Defensive Tackle: Melton and Paea should be an excellent pair, but depth is bad. Less of a problem on pass rushing downs.
Defensive Ends: Peppers, Wootton, and McClellin. Hey ya.
Linebacker: Briggs is a solidifying force, Williams should be average, and hopefully Bostic pushes him to the bench quickly. James Anderson keeps a job only as long as Khaseem Greene needs to learn. Glad to see some fresh blood here.
Cornerback: Peanut is a star. Jennings had a great year last year and hopefully settles in as an above-average corner. Isaiah Frey, no pressure buddy. Kelvin Hayden will be missed in the pass-happy NFL.
Safety: The deepest position on the team: Conte, Wright, Steltz, and Walters.
Specialists: Gould is great, Podlesh doesn't ever have his punts returned, Mannelly lasts forever, and Devin needs to keep being Devin. This offense can finally take advantage of his field position gifts.

Schedule
v. CIN - W
v. MIN - W
@ PIT - L
@ DET - W
v. NO - L
v. NYG - W
@ WSH - L
BYE
@ GB - L
v. DET - W
v. BAL - W
@ STL - W
@ MIN - L
v. DAL - W
@ CLE - L
@ PHI - W
v. GB - L

OVERALL: 9-7

The season just might come down to a Week 17 home date against the Packers. If Jay really wants to earn himself $15M+ per season, beating Aaron Rodgers in a big game would certainly help.

NFL Picks
AFC WEST
Denver - 13-3. Peyton Manning doesn't lose too much and this division is poor.
Kansas City - 8-8. Andy Reid plus Alex Smith equals an average team.
San Diego - 6-10. I've never liked Phillip Rivers.
Oakland - 2-14. $50M+ in dead cap space.

AFC SOUTH
Houston - 12-4. They might go 7-1 on the road. Cakewalk schedule.
Indianapolis - 10-6. I don't like them as much as last year, but good record on tougher schedule.
Tennessee - 5-11. Not a lot to like here.
Jacksonville - 1-15. Added some nice pieces in preparation for Teddy Bridgewater or Tajh Boyd. Finally have the house in order.

AFC NORTH
Cincinnati - 11-5. Might win their last six games after tough schedule to open the year.
Baltimore - 10-6. Champs sneak back into the playoffs. Still don't love Flacco.
Cleveland - 8-8. They're getting better with lots of great pieces on defense.
Pittsburgh - 7-9. Feels weird to put them here. Tough division though.

AFC EAST
New England - 11-5. It's Tom and Bill. They'll keep winning.
Miami - 10-6. I think the Dolphins will be the rare offseason splurge success story.
Buffalo - 4-12. New coach, only rookie quarterbacks. Tough to win with that.
New York Jets - 3-13. Feels like a win too many.

NFC WEST
Seattle - 13-3. I think San Francisco is better, but the Seahawks get a championship schedule.
San Francisco - 11-5. A great team that has to fight for all 11 wins.
Arizona - 6-10. Carson will get them a few wins.
St. Louis - 4-12. Not very good.

NFC SOUTH
Atlanta - 11-5. They get one last year.
Carolina - 9-7. Cam helps them move to the next level.
New Orleans - 9-7. Tough to peg in Payton's return.
Tampa Bay - 6-10. Much better than this record.

NFC NORTH
Green Bay - 12-4. Rodgers wins.
Chicago - 9-7. The playoffs are definitely within reach. Anything from 6 to 12 wins makes sense.
Minnesota - 7-9. Last year's 7-9 team went 10-6. This year's 10-6 team goes 7-9.
Detroit - 7-9. Too many positions are still ignored.

NFC EAST
New York Giants - 10-6. They're due for an inexplicable Super Bowl run, right?
Dallas - 8-8. Ho-hum. I don't like Romo much.
Washington - 8-8. Talk about a volatile team. How's that knee, RGIII?
Philadelphia - 5-11. A bad QB running a new offense? Yikes.

PLAYOFFS
A3 CIN over A6 MIA
A4 NE over A5 BAL
N5 SF over N4 NYG
N3 ATL over N6 CHI

A4 NE over A1 DEN
A3 CIN over A2 HOU
N1 SEA over N5 SF
N2 GB over N3 ATL

A4 NE over A3 CIN
N2 GB over N1 SEA

N2 GB over A4 NE

The 2015 Chicago Cubs: The Prospects

In the final look toward 2015, we get to the most exciting portion of the organization right now: the minor leagues. Things aren't pretty in Chicago, but the organization has added an incredible amount of young talent since the middle of  2011.

Oftentimes the primary contribution a prospect makes to a team - especially a prospect of a major market team - is via the return he nets in a trade. While the Cubs don't figure to be spinning off young talent in the near future, nonetheless the best way to evaluate the contributions prospects might make to the 2015 Cubs is to investigate the entire system, realizing that some will still be Cubs property in two years while some will not. With that in mind, here is a look at the top prospects in the organization with an emphasis on their projection and development timeline. My sources for this writing include a number of written scouting reports, internet videos, and even firsthand viewing of some of the prospects. I will use the 20-80 scouting scale for tools, roughly defined as:

20-25: Very poor
30-35: Well below average
40-45: Below average
50: Average
55: Solid-average
60-65: Plus or above average
70-75: Plus-plus or well above average
80: Outstanding or elite

While most people use power, hit, arm, fielding, and run, I like the idea of throwing in a sixth category: plate discipline. As we have seen with Starlin Castro, a fantastic hit tool can actually be a player's downfall if it gets in the way of developing a mature approach at the plate.

1. SS JAVIER BAEZ
DOB: 12/1/1992 (Age 20)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'0", 195 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 9th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 76 Games @ Daytona (A+), 10 Games @ Tennessee (AA): 378 PA, .264/.328/.522, 6.3% BB%, 24.3% K%, 20 HR, 4 3B, 19 2B, 12 SB
Offensive Profile: Baez's power is extreme. He generates loud contact thanks to a explosive swing. His bat speed is leaps and bounds beyond that of any other minor league player I have ever seen and beyond that of all of the current Cubs major leaguers. His ability to use the entire field is well developed; in the three games I have seen him play, he has a pair of run-scoring hits to the right side. His approach at the plate, while imperfect, is far more advanced than expected for such a young player with a pronounced hitting ability. He has shown a good ability to lay off pitches off of the plate outside in order to get a more hittable pitch, although this skill is still developing. There is some movement in his plate approach, but there are not so many moving parts that it will cause a timing problem down the line and he does not compromise balance with his actions. If he gets pitches in the zone, the crack of the bat resonates throughout the ballpark.
Defensive Profile: Baez undoubtedly has the arm to play on the left side of the infield, regularly turning likely hits into outs with big throws. His fielding is fluid and he is quick enough to get in good position on most balls. Even with maturation of his body and game, he should be able to play an average shortstop.
Red Flags: Overall approach to the game. I expected this problem to be a lack of focus. It isn't. It's more so that he gets overexcited at times, leading to a wild throw or an overaggressive swing. It also isn't that he plays with that level of aggression at all times, with otherwise excellent plate appearances sometimes inexplicably including a horrible chase of a high fastball. As he gets burned on these at higher levels, hopefully he adjusts.
Path to the Majors: With Baez's bat, the path is wide open. He would be best served by completing a full season at Daytona followed by another full season at Tennessee. However, he could push that timeline a bit with better control of his actions. By 2015, Baez could enter spring training with a full-time job in Chicago on the line. I'm not a fan of his early July promotion to Tennessee, but it will present a great challenge to his strike zone judgment.
Overall Projection: Baez could combine 75 power with a 60 hit tool and 50 discipline. He should keep his 65 arm, although his fielding and run won't push much beyond 50. With that complete package, Baez is a middle-of-the-order hitter for a contender if his game continues to develop. His discipline and hit could be lower, but the power is going to carry him. At his peak, he could put up lines of .280/.350/.550 with 10 steals.

2. COF JORGE SOLER
DOB: 2/25/1992 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'4", 215 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 55 Games @ Daytona (A+): 236 PA, .281/.343/.467, 8.9% BB%, 16.1% K%, 8 HR, 1 3B, 13 2B, 5 SB
Offensive Profile: Soler formerly employed a very pronounced load with quite a bit of movement with his hands and a sizable slide step. Thankfully, he has simplified his pre-pitch actions. He is regarded as having an advanced approach at the plate, but he was wildly overaggressive when I saw him, chasing poor pitches well out of the zone on numerous occasions despite assaulting mistake pitches. He already has the physique of a Major Leaguer, and his quick stroke generates very loud contact. His swing is oriented toward generating backspin, leading to plenty of power in his future as he harnesses his strength. He runs well enough that his baserunning should be a strength.
Defensive Profile: This should be a real strength for Soler. He has a huge arm with the chance to be a major asset in right field. He appeared a bit rickety at times while warming up in the field, but every time a ball headed his way, he had great jumps, exhibited good quickness, and took perfect paths.
Red Flags: Missed time and health. Soler missed almost a year of competitive baseball while defecting from Cuba. It was especially important for him to enjoy a full year in 2013. Instead, he is likely to miss the remainder of the minor league regular season with a stress fracture in his shin. As is the nature of a stress fracture, he was obviously playing hurt for some time before finally hitting the shelf. I have some additional concern about his pitch recognition, although the simplification of his approach at the plate should help his pitch recognition and tracking.
Path to the Majors: It seems a foregone conclusion that Soler will participate in the Arizona Fall League and possibly a winter league too. If so, depending on his results, he may find himself starting 2014 in Tennessee despite missed time at Daytona. Still, given the injury, I would be surprised if Soler gets even a cup of coffee in 2014 as he desperately needs the game experience he will miss due to injury in 2013. Unfortunately the gap between what he is and what he could be didn't close much in 2013.
Overall Projection: While the timeline has shifted for Soler, the projection remains largely the same. He should have 65 power, 55 hit, 65 arm, 55 speed, and a 60 glove. I'm hopeful that his discipline comes along for the ride, although it could be slower developing now; it should nonetheless be 50 at worst. If the discipline is real, Soler is a cleanup hitter with strong defense for a contender or a new age 2nd hitter in a lineup with more power but less on-base ability behind him. Soler's peak could be around .275/.370/.530 with 10 steals. Considering that he was playing hurt and still put up good numbers, Soler still has a monster ceiling.

3. CF ALBERT ALMORA
DOB: 4/16/1994 (Age 19)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 180 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 6th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 46 Games @ Kane County (A): 207 PA, .328/.364/.474, 4.3% BB%, 12.1% K%, 3 HR, 3 3B, 13 2B, 4 SB
Offensive Profile: Almora has good skills throughout his offensive toolbox. His hands are very good, leading to great bat speed. He starts with a high leg kick to get to his smooth, line-drive oriented stroke that lacks big power projection but should lead to consistently high batting averages. He has enough speed to steal some bases, but his projection is driven by batting average and an advanced overall feel for the game that offers hope for his ability to develop discipline in his approach.
Defensive Profile: Almora looks to be a center fielder if he progresses as hoped, but he does not have enough speed to be an impact defender there. If the lack of speed forces him to a corner, he should be an elite defender albeit with underwhelming offense.
Red Flags: Athleticism. Whereas Baez has loud, game-changing tools, Almora derives his value from his instincts and understanding of the game. As he climbs through the system, he may struggle to keep up with bigger, faster, and stronger players.
Path to the Majors: Much like Baez, Almora's path is wide open. He will need seasoning to see enough pitches to develop the necessary discipline at the plate. Still, given his advanced game and his presence in a full-season league at 19, Almora could spend 2014 in Daytona, 2015 in Tennessee, and be ready to reach Chicago in late 2015 or early 2016.
Overall Projection: Almora could have a 65 hit, 55 power, 50 run, and a 55 glove. His discipline is a complete wild card at this point as he has shown no ability to walk, but his batting averages have been extreme and he has limited strikeouts. Almora could be an above-average center fielder who is a very good leadoff or 2nd hitter for a contender. He could peak around .300/.355/.460 with 15 stolen bases while playing a good center field.

4. 3B KRIS BRYANT
DOB: 1/4/1992 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'5", 218 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 2nd overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: N/A
Offensive Profile: It's all power, all the time. Bryant has an eerily quiet approach at the plate for such a menacing power hitter with a wide base and a minimal load. His smooth, simple actions empower his quick, loft-oriented swing to pack a huge punch. Bryant does not run particularly well and he likely will not hit for a ton of average. While that all may be disappointing, the tradeoff is some of the best power in the game out of a big, strong, and athletic frame.
Defensive Profile: This is trickier o figure. Bryant has a strong arm, but his lack of speed and huge frame limit him to the corners of both the infield and outfield. The hope remains that Bryant's hands make up for any inflexibility and lack of quickness as his body fills out a bit more. If they cannot, he should move well enough to provide average production in an outfield corner.
Red Flags: Collegiate level of competition. Bryant made the right moves outside of his college baseball, making appearances with Team USA. Unfortunately, the level of competition in the West Coast Conference leaves plenty to be desired. As such, Bryant's plate discipline and hit tool may be underdeveloped at his stage. There will also be a ton of strikeouts in his game, so his ability to limit strikeouts will be important.
Path to the Majors: Bryant's path isn't quite as clear as most other prospects. He will spend some time in Boise this year and might even make his way to Kane County if things go well. Given the front office's desire to fully develop prospects before pushing them to the major leagues - Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury (1,155) and Dustin Pedroia (1,216) both receiving over 1,100 minor league plate appearances despite their advanced status - Bryant will likely begin 2014 in Kane County for a brief stint before spending most of the year in Daytona. 2015 is the larger question as his approach at the plate determines whether he spends more time at High-A ball or makes the jump to Tennessee. If his production dictates the latter option, Bryant can reach Chicago by the end of the summer in 2015. The reason for the lack of clarity: if Bryant shows more advanced discipline than expected, he could move very, very quickly, reaching Tennessee by the summer of 2014 and pushing for an MLB job shortly thereafter.
Overall Projection: Bryant's level of athleticism limits his overall potential in that contributions with the glove and on the basepaths are unlikely. Depending on the development of his discipline, Bryant could be a power-hitting machine in the middle-of-the-order for a contender in the 4th or 5th spot of the lineup. At his peak, Bryant could produce .270/.360/.560 lines from third base or a corner outfield spot. His 75+ power could form a power trio with Anthony Rizzo and Baez.

5. SP PAUL BLACKBURN
DOB: 12/4/1993 (Age 19)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 56th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 6 Games/6 Starts @ Boise (A-): 26.0 IP, 19 H, 12 BB (4.15 BB/9), 25 SO (8.65 SO/9), 0 HR, 12 R, 2.42 ERA, 1.94 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Blackburn was drafted as a wiry 160 pounder. In the year since being drafted, Blackburn packed on 30 lbs., significantly improving his ability to handle a starter's workload, and there still figures to be a bit more room to grow. Blackburn absolutely has the size to stick as a starter, maintaining velocity deep into games as he develops. He uses a high leg kick before compacting his body to explode forward.
Pitch Profile: Blackburn's fastball works in the low-90s and, given his age and size, could improve a bit more. He also works with a curveball and a changeup.
Red Flags: Age. Blackburn does not currently have any glaring weaknesses to his game, but at 19, he has all of his professional development standing between him and Chicago. There are so many things that need to go well.
Path to the Majors: Blackburn is the top pitching prospect in a system bereft of high-end arms. As such, the organization is begging for him to develop. He will get his first full season of game action in 2014. Seeing as his body will probably be filled out by then, he could move a bit more quickly than most high schoolers. He could be in Chicago by late 2016.
Overall Projection: Blackburn lacks any elite offerings, but he has the other tools necessary to be a mid-rotation starter. He has quite a gap between his current status and that projection, and, as a 19-year-old, there is a tremendous amount to learn about pitchability, sequencing, and command. If things come together, Blackburn can be a good 3rd starter for a playoff team. Blackburn could have a few 30 start seasons with 7-8 K/9 and low walk rates.

6. SS ARISMENDY ALCANTARA
DOB: 10/29/1991 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: S/R. 5'10", 160 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2008
2013 Stats: 92 Games @ Tennessee (AA): 394 PA, .277/.352/.469, 9.9% BB%, 21.8% K%, 13 HR, 2 3B, 23 2B, 22 SB
Offensive Profile: Alcantara lacks a powerful frame, yet that hasn't stopped him from hitting for good power. He has consistently hit for a solid batting average and shown a bit of speed. However, his base stealing ability has erupted in the last year and a half, as has his discipline. Alcantara has shown an increasingly well-rounded game as he continues to climb through the system. He has an absurd amount of pre-pitch movement, bending both knees, wagging the bat a bit, and performing a bizarre, pronounced back-shoulder shrug.
Defensive Profile: Although technically still listed as a shortstop, Alcantara's future is at the keystone. He lacks the profile of Darwin Barney - as does every other second base prospect in the game - but he is athletic enough to cover plenty of ground on the right side.
Red Flags: Size and platoon splits. It is difficult for most 160 pounders to make it in the Majors. Alcantara moves well enough to survive, but it is very hard to generate powerful contact from that frame. Perhaps more frightening, Alcantara has an outrageous platoon split, punishing right-handed pitching and flailing versus lefties. Scrapping hitting from the right side would be an enormous change.
Path to the Majors: With Starlin Castro seemingly immovable at shortstop despite big struggles and Darwin Barney an everyday starter, Alcantara will likely be allowed to finish this year at Tennessee before jumping to Iowa for 2014. Barney figures to move on in the next year, so Alcantara will likely get his shot if he keeps producing.
Overall Projection: As a relative newcomer on the prospect scene, Alcantara is a bit tougher to peg. He has shown such improvement over the past 15 months at higher levels, it would be a quite a surprise if he didn't get a chance to perform at the highest level. With limited information, I think Alcantara could be an average second baseman with 50 power, 50 hit, 50 discipline, 60 speed, and 55 glove. As such, he could be an adequate 2nd hitter on a good team or a tremendous option in the 7th or 8th spot of an excellent lineup. He isn't going to be a great player, but he does so many things well that he could be a nice piece out of a less traditional frame. He could peak at .270/.330/.425 with 20 steals.

7. COF ELOY JIMENEZ
DOB: 11/27/1996 (Age 16)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'4", 200 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: N/A
Offensive Profile: Jimenez has a pretty, compact stroke as a 16-year-old. He already has the athletic build to develop into a good producer who hits for power and a good average. Although he currently runs well, he may not do so if he adds 20-30 pounds to his frame, even if it is good weight.
Defensive Profile: His arm is strong currently and should play well enough for him to man right field very effectively. Again, his speed is currently such that he could play center field but he figures to end up in a corner in the future. As he adds weight, his defensive profile will take a hit although his arm should remain an asset.
Red Flags: Age, identity, and contract. Jimenez is only 16, so there is a chasm between him now and his Major League version. Coming from the wild west of Latin America, there are always identity verification concerns. Finally, Jimenez is yet to formally sign, likely a formality as the Cubs seek to obtain more international bonus pool space. Still, the lack of a contract left me reluctant to include him on this list.
Path to the Majors: Jimenez cannot begin playing professionally until the 2014 season. I expect that he will make his U.S. debut in 2015, followed by a full season debut in 2016. Beyond that, any projection seems ridiculous. For reference sake, assuming one level at a time once playing full season ball, Jimenez would spend 2017 in Daytona, 2018 in Tennessee, and 2019 in Iowa/Chicago.
Overall Projection: Jimenez very much elicits thoughts of Soler, albeit with a bit less power in his projection. He can reach a 60 power, 60 hit, 50 run, 60 throw, and 50 field. Discipline is rare among Latin American teenagers, so a 40 seems cautiously optimistic there. If Jimenez pans out, he can be a good option in the 4th or 5th spot of a contending lineup where his power and hit are more valuable and any lacking on-base skills are less problematic. Jimenez has the kind of projection to hit .285/.345/.500 with 10 stolen bases and strong defense.

8. SP BEN WELLS
DOB: 9/10/1992 (Age 20)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 220 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 220th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2010
2013 Stats: 18 Games/18 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 97.2 IP, 82 H, 30 BB (2.76 BB/9), 63 SO (5.81 SO/9), 6 HR (0.55 HR/9), 43 R, 3.32 ERA, 2.41 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Wells has the classic sinkerballer frame as the 220 lbs. listing weight is almost certainly a bit light. He still has some baby fat on his frame, but he definitely has the kind of frame that can handle a big workload.
Pitch Profile: Like the physique, Wells has the classic sinkerballer's arsenal. He features a low-90s, hard-sinking fastball that generates tons of ground balls. He throws a low-80s slider, and complements the pair with a sinking changeup as well. Although Wells does not generate strikeouts with his pitches, he successfully generates the ground ball contact he seeks and limits home runs.
Red Flags: Health and contract. Wells suffered an elbow injury that limited him to just eight starts in the Midwest League in 2012. More frightening, Wells has a contractual clause requiring him to be added to the team's 40-man roster in 2013. His success thus far should make this decision an easy one.
Path to the Majors: Wells received a very aggressive assignment in 2013, moving to Daytona after just 44 innings at A ball. He hasn't disappointed, continuing to limit walks and home runs while generating on-the-ground contact. He may reach Tennessee late in 2013, and he should certainly spend the 2014 campaign there. If things continue to go well, he just might find himself in Chicago at some point in 2014 and very likely will attend spring training in 2015 with an MLB job on the line.
Overall Projection: Still true to the sinkerballer mold, Wells doesn't have the sexiest projection. He won't strike out many Major League hitters and he isn't going to light up the radar gun. What he will do is throw a boatload of average innings, requiring strong infield defense behind him. Wells can be a good 4th or superb 5th starter for a contender, eating regular season innings but not figuring into a playoff rotation. He should have some 200 inning seasons where he limits walks and home runs while rolling boatloads of double plays.

9. UTIL JUNIOR LAKE
DOB: 3/27/1990 (Age 23)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'3", 215 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2007
2013 Stats: 40 Games @ Iowa (AAA): 170 PA, .295/.341/.462, 5.9% BB%, 19.4% K%, 4 HR, 2 3B, 10 2B, 14 SB
Offensive Profile: Lake has quieted his approach some at the plate, although he still holds his bat over his shoulder at a downward angle pointing toward the ground before cocking the bat to load for his swing. This kind of unnecessary movement can make his timing appear off. Regardless, Lake has shown an improved hit tool over the last few years in addition to showing solid power, decent discipline, and great speed. A slowly developing prospect, Lake appears to have put his game together offensively.
Defensive Profile: Defense is another story. Lake is a mess with the glove and he is yet to find a defensive home. The former shortstop was nominally moved to third base this offseason but seems destined for an outfield location where his athleticism and big arm can make up for whatever fluidity issues are present in his game.
Red Flags: Defense. Lake has already shown enough with the bat and on the basepaths to warrant a look at the next level. His glove may be his downfall.
Path to the Majors: A stress fracture of the rib delayed Lake's start to the 2013 campaign, but he made the jump to Iowa and kept on hitting and running. Lake should reach Chicago in August or September this year with a shot to win a bench job next year.
Overall Projection: It's hard to project a homeless player. Lake should look to Tampa Bay's Ben Zobrist for inspiration, a player without a true defensive home whose offensive abilities and athleticism enable him to be one of the great assets in the game. Lake could have a 55 hit, 50 power, 65 run, 30 glove, 55 arm, and a 30 discipline. The holes in his game are pronounced. But so are the pluses. As a result, Lake figures to be a great utilityman and bench bat on a contending team who gets between 300 and 400 plate appearances each year. He will get his first crack at proving that tonight.

10. SP PIERCE JOHNSON
DOB: 5/10/1991 (Age 22)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'3", 170 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 43rd overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 13 Games/13 Starts @ Kane County (A), 4 Games/4 Starts @ Daytona (A+): 91.2 IP, 89 H, 30 BB (2.95 BB/9), 92 SO (9.03 SO/9), 5 HR (0.49 HR/9), 36 R, 3.04 ERA, 1.08 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Johnson's wiry frame is currently a liability. He has the ability to add some weight to his body, but at 22, it seems doubtful that he will ever push his way up near 200 lbs. As he currently stands, his frame wears down quickly in games with his fastball velocity dropping three miles per hour just four innings deep when I saw him. His fastball command similarly begins to waver. There just aren't a lot of 170 lbs. starting pitchers at the highest level, so Johnson desperately needs to add weight to his frame to avoid a shift to the bullpen.
Pitch Profile: He has a very smooth, repeatable delivery that enables him to easily work at 92 with a bit of arm-side run. He doesn't appear to have much more velocity on the pitch, although he has been clocked as high as 95. While his fastball is good but not special, his 11-to-5 curveball has a chance to be a big pitch for him. Thrown in the low-80s, Johnson is fearless with the offering working it in all counts to all hitters in all locations. His changeup clearly lags behind the first two offerings, and he currently lacks the confidence to use it versus left-handed batters in key situations.
Red Flags: Size and health. As mentioned above, Johnson needs to find a way to add size to his frame so he can last deeper into outings. As for his health, the Cubs were only able to select him in the 2012 draft because he fell due to concerns about a forearm injury. He has been healthy as a professional and he needs his innings to work on the changeup and to build arm strength.
Path to the Majors: Although he is already 22, Johnson looks to need quite a bit more seasoning. I expect him to start 2014 at Daytona before a mid-season jump to Tennessee. Then in 2015, he will likely spend most of the year in a minor leagues before a late-season look in Chicago. The timeline changes drastically if he is moved to the bullpen.
Overall Projection: Johnson is very difficult for me to peg right now. His fastball-curveball combination is enough to make him an average Major League starter provided that he develops a usable changeup and packs on some pounds. But the frame is not built for him to add much size and the changeup isn't close. He could end up with a 55 fastball, 60 curveball, and a 45 changeup. As such, I think the goofy righty who hops over the foul line and wears his socks up high has an equal chance of being a great 4th starter or ending up in the bullpen as a nice setup arm who relies a bit more on pitchability and a bit less on stuff than most of his relief peers.

11. SP KYLE HENDRICKS
DOB: 12/7/1989 (Age 23)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'3", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 264th overall by Texas Rangers in 2011; traded with 3B Christian Villanueva to Chicago Cubs for SP Ryan Dempster in 2012
2013 Stats: 18 Games/18 Starts @ Tennessee (AA): 106.1 IP, 90 H, 24 BB (2.03 BB/9), 85 SO (7.19 SO/9), 3 HR (0.25 HR/9), 29 R, 2.03 ERA, 1.74 GO/AO
Physical Profile: The Professor, a Dartmouth alumnus, has a lanky frame with just enough meat on it to stick as a starter. His simple, classic, overhand delivery places very little stress on his body.
Pitch Profile: None of Hendricks's pitches inspire much confidence. He works in the high-80s with his fastball and complements the heater with a diverse arsenal including a strong changeup, a relatively new cutter, and a curveball. Again, by themselves, none of the pitches stand out. But Hendricks's command and control are among the best around. Repeatable mechanics and well-placed offerings are his calling card.
Red Flags: Velocity. By working in the high-80s, Hendricks severely limits his margin for error. In order to make it at the highest level, his command and control both need to remain superb against tougher competition.
Path to the Majors: Hendricks is in the midst of a marvelous campaign at AA Tennessee. As openings arise in the Chicago rotation, he could get a look as soon as September to see if he has enough command to make his game work in the Show. At the very worst, he should get a look at the end of the summer of 2014.
Overall Projection: While command and control aren't sexy like velocity and movement, Hendricks may actually be the best bet of any Cubs pitching prospect to find his way into a Major League rotation. Hendricks owns an incredible 1.45 BB/9 over the first 279.2 innings of his professional career. Despite skipping full-season A ball, Hendricks hasn't missed a beat, enjoying great results at every level while issuing few walks and limiting home runs against increasingly advanced hitters. While the lack of power stuff limits his ceiling, Hendricks should be a good 4th starter or an excellent 5th option for a contender.

12. 1B DAN VOGELBACH
DOB: 12/17/1992 (Age 20)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: L/R. 6'0", 250 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 68th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 91 Games @ Kane County (A): 401 PA, .284/.352/.449, 10.0% BB%, 15.2% K%, 14 HR, 0 3B, 17 2B, 4 SB
Offensive Profile: Vogelbach has huge power, arguably among the best in the minor leagues. Everything in his game is oriented toward generating big contact with plenty of extra-base hits flowing as a result. His hitting approach is advanced enough that he should hit for high average and draw plenty of walks. The offensive upside is immense. His pre-pitch motions are numerous with a pronounced stride and a huge load with his hands. He is among the slowest professional players.
Defensive Profile: He doesn't have one. Nominally a first baseman, Vogelbach is a pure designated hitter at the highest level. He is too big to make even the limited athletic plays required by a first baseman.
Red Flags: Body and defense. Vogelbach seems to have done a very nice job converting fat into muscle as a professional, and he already looks more athletic than just large. However, his conditioning will always be a concern. More importantly, his defensive profile will limit him to the 15 American League teams assuming the bat develops.
Path to the Majors: Vogelbach will be a methodically developed prospect, going one level at a time. As such, he should spend 2014 in Daytona, 2015 in Tennessee, and 2016 figuring out where to play in the Major Leagues.
Overall Projection: Vogelbach is the rare player that lives on the extremes of the scouting scale with future 75 power, 65 hit, and 70 discipline offset by 20 run, 30 glove, and an arm that won't matter. At his peak, Vogelbach can be among the best designated hitters in baseball. His makeup is highly regarded to the extent that, even with his body, he can headline a trade for a big player.

13. SP DUANE UNDERWOOD
DOB: 7/20/1994 (Age 18)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 205 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 67th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2012
2013 Stats: 6 Games/6 Starts @ Boise (A-): 25.0 IP, 34 H, 13 BB (4.68 BB/9), 19 SO (6.84 SO/9), 3 HR (1.08 HR/9), 23 R, 6.12 ERA, 1.64 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Underwood is still maturing physically, but at his peak, he should settle around 220 lbs., giving him a classic power physique. His delivery involves a lot of effort and likely puts a good amount of stress on his arm. With some mechanical refinement and additional strength, he should be well equipped to handle a starter's load.
Pitch Profile: It all starts with Underwood's huge fastball that features a bit of sink and hits in the mid-90s. As he develops, the fastball should settle in the low-to-mid-90s making it a true plus-plus offering. His curveball and changeup, on the other hand, have a long way to go. His only breaking pitch works in the mid-70s, something that professional hitters will exploit. As such, he may need to add a slider in order to stick as a rotation possibility. His pitches have a long way to go, but the fastball is real.
Red Flags: Age and experience. While it is a good thing that Underwood was drafted at 17, it also means that he is a long way from reaching physical maturity. Further, the young righty has only a few dozen innings of professional experience, leaving him with hundreds of innings of minor league pitching ahead of him. There's just a lot that can go wrong, especially with a high intensity delivery.
Path to the Majors: It will be long and slow. Underwood will go one step at a time spending 2014 in Kane County, 2015 in Daytona, 2016 in Tennessee, and finally pushing for a job in Chicago in 2017 assuming everything goes as planned. Any hiccups along the way will postpone that arrival date.
Overall Projection: Like most teenagers, Underwood is extremely difficult to project given the limited body of information and the immense growth still to come. He really just needs to pitch a lot and develop consistency with his offerings. His ceiling is through the roof, but the most likely positive outcome for Underwood is that of an excellent 3rd starter for a contender or a back-of-the-bullpen reliever.

14. SS GLEYBER TORRES
DOB: 12/3/1996 (Age 16)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'0", 170 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: N/A
Offensive Profile: Torres features a big leg kick and plenty of hand movement to get into hitting position. However, once he gets there, he has a strong, compact stroke that enables him to spray hard contact all over the field. He doesn't run well now, and as he adds weight, it is highly unlikely that he gets any quicker.
Defensive Profile: Torres has a strong arm, certainly strong enough to play on the left side of the infield. Unfortunately, he has a strange throwing motion that engages the entire right side of his torso in one connected motion to generate this power, leaving me to question his ability to maintain his power with a quick release. I believe Torres ultimately ends up at second base where he should be a plus defender.
Red Flags: Age and advancement. Torres is only 16, so he has a long development in front of him. Strangely, because his game is so advanced for his age, some scouts worry that he may not have as much room to grow as a number of his peers. Torres has already signed his contract, so that is not a concern.
Path to the Majors: Like Jimenez, Torres will not start his professional career until 2014. Given his level of advancement, he will likely make his U.S. debut to end 2014 with a full season league in 2015. If his ceiling drops but his game adds polish, he could move very quickly, pushing for a Major League job around 2017.
Overall Projection: Torres could be a non-first base infielder with 60 power and 60 hit. Without game experience, evaluating his discipline is essentially impossible, although his advanced approach suggests that this will come. With below-average speed but as an above-average fielder with plus offense, Torres can be an excellent 2nd or 6th hitter for a contender.

15. RP ARODYS VIZCAINO
DOB: 11/13/1990 (Age 22)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'0", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by New York Yankees in 2007; traded with Melky Cabrera and Mike Dunn to Atlanta Braves for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan in 2009; traded with Jaye Chapman to Chicago Cubs for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson in 2012
2013 Stats: N/A
Physical Profile: Vizcaino's main problem. While he has the stuff of a very good starting pitcher, his body has been unable to handle the amount of force his arsenal generates with multiple elbow surgeries in the past two years. Given his stature, Vizcaino is realistically limited to a bullpen role.
Pitch Profile: His pitches are still exciting with his electric fastball routinely coming in above 95 in relief appearances. In addition to his plus-plus fastball, he owns a plus power curveball. While he has thrown a changeup and a slider in the past and could still work to develop the offerings, the excellent fastball-curveball combination is his calling card.
Red Flags: Injury. Vizcaino was on the fast track to stardom, reaching the Major Leagues at 20 as a top-50 prospect in baseball. Since then, he hasn't thrown a pitch in a game.
Path to the Majors: There are two very different paths for Vizcaino, although both involve him participating in fall and winter leagues this year. If the Cubs are committed to stretching him out as a starter and developing his changeup, he will spend most or all of 2014 in Iowa. If they seek to use his power arsenal to fill the voids in the back end of the bullpen, Vizcaino may very well reach Chicago very early in 2014 despite having missed consecutive seasons.
Overall Projection: Even with the injury history, Vizcaino still has a big future. Any time a pitcher combines a 75 fastball with a 65 curveball, things are looking good. While his command will need time to return, Vizcaino should be a good closing option for a contender or at worst an excellent setup reliever.

16. CF BRETT JACKSON
DOB: 8/2/1988 (Age 24)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: L/R. 6'2", 220 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 31st overall by Chicago Cubs in 2009
2013 Stats: 61 Games @ Iowa (AAA): 242 PA, .223/.300/.367, 8.7% BB%, 31.8% K%, 6 HR, 3 3B, 7 2B, 7 SB
Offensive Profile: Any evaluation of Jackson comes with the caveat that he revamped his swing and approach in the offseason. As of the end of 2012, he had a quiet stance with his hands near the uniform logo before a complicated load into the hitting position with a noticeable leg kick and hand load. Jackson has been the poster child for athletic three true outcomes hitters with an extremely high number of strikeouts, buckets of walks, and good power. Despite having consistently strong BABIPs, Jackson's strikeouts will always limit his batting average and thus his on-base ceiling. His speed and base stealing ability are above-average.
Defensive Profile: Jackson has a very similar defensive profile to David DeJesus, although Jackson's is better thanks to his speed. He covers enough ground to play center field, although not an elite level. He also has enough of an arm to be a good corner outfielder, but it isn't a plus tool in a corner. Wherever he plays, Jackson is above-average with a chance for a bit more but no chance to be elite.
Red Flags: Strikeouts and disappearance. The strikeouts have stalled Jackson's career with a chance to kill it. More alarmingly, he appears to have disappeared from the Iowa Cubs for a number of weeks this year. Although the Chicago Tribune reported that he will report to Arizona to rehabilitate a leg injury before regaining confidence at Tennessee, the Iowa manager did not know of Jackson's whereabouts for a few weeks before the report. Clearly there is some concern about his relations with Iowa management.
Path to the Majors: Despite having already reached the Majors, Jackson actually has a good bit of development in front of him. He is athletic enough with plenty of baseball skills to be an above-average MLB starter. However, his strikeouts necessitated a revised approach at the plate and he needs repetitions. Even if the Cubs bring in a big free agent outfielder this offseason, Jackson should get a crack at winning a job if he can prove that he is still mentally engaged.
Overall Projection: Jackson's ceiling has plummeted over the last 12 months, tumbling from a likely above-average starter into the unknown. He still shows 55 power, 60 speed, 60 glove, and 60 discipline, but his hit tool may be in the 30 range. At this point, Jackson will probably be a strikeout-heavy reserve outfielder who adds extra value with his speed and defense. He's still likely a nice player to have around; it's just that the star ceiling that seemed reachable just two years ago is now a forgotten dream.

17. CF JACOB HANNEMANN
DOB: 4/29/1991 (Age 22)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: L/L. 6'1", 190 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 75th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2013
2013 Stats: 11 Games @ Boise (A-): 51 PA, .280/.294/.480, 2.0% BB%, 13.7% K%, 1 HR, 2 3B, 3 2B, 1 SB
Offensive Profile: Hannemann is very smooth and fluid at the plate. He has a compact stroke that enables him to make consistent contact while limiting his power. However, his frame and physicality are such that I wouldn't be surprised if the team elongated his swing a tiny bit in order to take advantage of his power potential. He is a great runner who should steal plenty of bases.
Defensive Profile: Hannemann's glove and his arm are diametrically opposed. He has more than enough speed to be a plus defender in center field, yet he has a subpar arm so he'll need to stay there.
Red Flags: Age and experience. Hannemann is already 22 in short-season A ball. While his reason is plenty understandable - he spent two years immediately after graduating high school on his Mormon mission - it nonetheless puts him well behind the developmental curve. He also missed offseason baseball workouts last year while on scholarship with the BYU football team. While reasonable, it is still lost developmental time.
Path to the Majors: It will be slow. I expect Hannemann to spend full seasons over the next three years at Kane County, Daytona, and Tennessee. He needs the repetitions. Depending on how his age-25 season goes at Tennessee, he could push for some playing time at the end of that year, 2016.
Overall Projection: Let's get one thing out of the way: Hannemann is not Matt Szczur. That isn't intended as a slight of Szczur; the two are just different types of players. Hannemann doesn't run quite as well as Szczur, but there should be much more power in his game. He could end up with a 60 hit, 55 power, 65 run, and 60 glove despite a 40 arm. It's almost impossible to project his discipline given how little baseball he has played, but he seems like a good kid and student, so this facet has a decent chance to develop. If that all comes to fruition, Hannemann will be an above-average center fielder who hits 2nd or 7th for a contender.

18. SP ALBERTO CABRERA
DOB: 10/25/1988 (Age 24)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'4", 210 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2005
2013 Stats: 18 Games/18 Starts @ Tennessee (AA): 112.2 IP, 102 H, 39 BB (3.12 BB/9), 107 SO (8.55 SO/9), 10 HR (0.80 HR/9), 41 R, 3.20 ERA, 1.55 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Cabrera has the perfect build and the simple delivery needed to log serious innings. He can get a bit wild at times when reaching back for a little extra, but his frame is ideal.
Pitch Profile: Cabrera's fastball has been his calling card and with good reason. In the bullpen, he works in the mid-90s while he hangs around 92 in the rotation. His slider is a good pitch with the chance to be above-average and he also uses a changeup.
Red Flags: Changed projection. After spending all of 2012 in the bullpen, the organization apparently saw something in Cabrera that warranted another look in a starting job. Although it has been a tremendous success this year, it is bizarre that the team has changed their outlook on him so substantially.
Path to the Majors: After an excellent first half in Tennessee, Cabrera will get a shot to make plenty of starts in Iowa with the possibility of a look in Chicago given that he is already on the 40-man roster. He will have a chance to win a Major League job in Spring Training 2014.
Overall Projection: Cabrera is brutally difficult to peg. He probably ends up in the bullpen thanks to his ability to dial up his fastball, but his success as a starter could still give him a shot to be a swingman. With his arsenal and his developing pitchability, Cabrera should be able to carve out a career in the mold of Carlos Villanueva with more stuff, making plenty of starts but shifting to the bullpen when there is a surplus of starting pitching.

19. SP DILLON MAPLES
DOB: 5/9/1992 (Age 21)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'2", 195 lbs.
Transactions: Drafted 429th overall by Chicago Cubs in 2011
2013 Stats: 11 Games/7 Starts @ Kane County (A), 1 Game @ Boise (A-): 34.2 IP, 33 H, 34 BB (8.05 BB/9), 34 SO (8.83 SO/9), 1 HR (0.26 HR/9), 37 R, 8.31 ERA, 1.88 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Maples has enough size to stick in a rotation, although he doesn't appear to have added much size since being drafted two summers ago. More troubling, Maples has struggled to make it to the mound, dealing with generic arm injuries thus far.
Pitch Profile: Maples works with a two pitch mix at this point with command lacking on both. He complements a low-90s straight fastball with a sweeping mid-70s curveball.
Red Flags: Injury and experience. Maples needed to pitch to develop his offerings, but vague arm troubles prevented him from doing so for almost two years. As a result, his is still effectively a high schooler on the development curve inching toward Rule V draft eligibility where some team may take a flyer on him.
Path to the Majors: It's a long one still. Despite signing for top-10 money, Maples needs to pitch a ton, so he will finish 2013 back at Boise before a return to Kane County in 2014. Maples is not going to move quickly, so 2015 will be spent in Daytona at which team the team must decide whether to protect him.
Overall Projection: Given the stunted nature of his development thus far, Maples may shift to the bullpen where he can add a few ticks to his fastball and enjoy an uptick in his curveball power as well. His current inability to control either delivery makes projecting him more difficult, but if everything comes together, Maples is a strong back-of-the-bullpen arm.

20. RP JUAN CARLOS PANIAGUA
DOB: 4/4/1990 (Age 23)
Bats/Throws. Height, Weight: R/R. 6'1", 175 lbs.
Transactions: Signed as an international free agent by Arizona Diamondbacks in 2009 - contract terminated due to fraudulent paperwork; signed as an international free agent by New York Yankees in 2011 - contract terminated due to falsified documents; signed as an international free agent by Chicago Cubs in 2012.
2013 Stats: 4 Games/4 Starts @ Dominican Summer League Cubs (DSL), 1 Game/1 Start @ Arizona League Cubs (AZL), 1 Game/1 Start @ Kane County (A): 17.2 IP, 8 H, 6 BB (3.06 BB/9), 19 SO (9.68 SO/9), 0 HR, 3 R, 1.02 ERA, 1.06 GO/AO
Physical Profile: Despite having reached 23 years old due to numerous documentation fiascos, Paniagua still checks in at just 175 lbs. As such, it is nearly impossible to project him as a starting pitching option. He should be able to add a bit of weight and settle into his relief role.
Pitch Profile: It's a shame that Paniagua is of such a slight build because his pitches suggest a starting future. He has a low-90s fastball well complemented by a strong low-80s slider and a similarly useful mid-80s changeup. With command and control, he has a strong starting repertoire.
Red Flags: Identity and experience. Being the third team to sign a player who has twice had his contract voided for identity issues hardly inspires confidence. Plus, as a result of the prior terminations, Paniagua has missed out on years of development time.
Path to the Majors: Despite being 23, Paniagua needs to log lots of innings. While it is possible that he could move relatively quickly, I expect that he will finish out this year in Kane County before spending all of 2014 starting in Daytona. At that point the decision will be made as to his future role with that decision driving the timeline. If he is moved to the bullpen, he could be an in-house addition as early as late 2015.
Overall Projection: Without the identity crisis, might have already worked his way onto an MLB roster. However, because he missed out on years of development and he is undersized, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs are content with developing him as a reliever. If so, Paniagua has the arsenal to be an excellent back-of-the-bullpen arm.

30 MORE IN ONE SENTENCE
21. SP ROB ZASTRYZNY: The 2nd round pick has a lively fastball and an advanced feel for pitching, BUT his curveball has a long way to go.
22. SP TREVOR CLIFTON: The 12th round pick signed for 3rd round money on the strength of a mid-90s fastball, BUT his is very raw, needing to add lots of size.
23. 3B CHRISTIAN VILLANUEVA: Acquired in the Ryan Dempster trade, Villanueva has MLB-caliber defensive chops and good power, BUT his hit tool renders him only a decent prospect.
24. 2B LOGAN WATKINS: A one-level-at-a-time prospect, Watkins has elite discipline and stunning power for a tiny frame, BUT his hit tool is poor and he doesn't bring enough on the basepaths or in the field to make up for it.
25. RP ZACH ROSSCUP: Acquired in the Matt Garza trade, Rosscup has the look of a good lefty reliever, BUT that is also his ceiling.
26. SP ERLING MORENO: Another July 2nd signing, Moreno has a great pitcher's body with a developing repertoire, BUT a tremendously long way to go.
27. 3B JEIMER CANDELARIO: The 19-year-old switch hitter is worth monitoring while holding his own at Kane County, BUT he also hasn't shown any plus tools.
28. COF JOHN ANDREOLI: He can run like the wind and makes regular strong contact, BUT there is no power to his game whatsoever and his speed is probably only a 70 or 75, not 80.
29. SP BARRET LOUX: The former 6th overall selection in 2010 has managed only middling results despite a strong track record, BUT injuries appear to have sapped him of most of his velocity.
30. SP TYLER SKULINA: The imposing 6'6" righty has a strong fastball-curveball combination, BUT his lacking changeup probably limits him to the bullpen.
31. SP JEFFERSON MEJIA: The rare 18-year-old who signed on July 2nd, Mejia already works in the low-90s, BUT his arsenal is underdeveloped and his mechanics need an overhaul.
32. RP FRANK DEL VALLE: The Cuban lefty closer at Daytona has serious heat and a useful curveball, BUT he has largely foundered despite his move from the rotation to the bullpen.
33. RP TREY MCNUTT: The big righty burst onto the prospect scene with a huge 2010 spanning three levels, BUT he hasn't made it past Tennessee despite three full season cracks.
34. RP TONY ZYCH: He has a mid-90s tailing fastball and a good mid-80s slider that should have him pitching in the 7th inning, BUT he is destined for some injury troubles given the violence in his delivery and the 7th inning role is also his ceiling.
35. CF MATT SZCZUR: The former football star at Villanova still runs very well, hits well, and plays a good center field, BUT he brings absolutely no power to the table and doesn't draw enough walks to make up for it.
36. SP AUSTIN KIRK: Dylan Bundy's high school teammate has filled out his lefty frame and features a usable arsenal, BUT he has been pummeled upon reaching Tennessee as a 23-year-old.
37. COF REGGIE GOLDEN: After struggling to get his professional career going, the 21-year-old former 2nd round choice enjoyed an explosive June at Kane County flashing good power and solid hitting ability, BUT he still has numerous holes in his game with an inability to make contact threatening to knock him out completely.
38. 2B WES DARVILL: The lanky Canadian finally enjoyed some success and has flashed some good secondary skills, BUT none of his tools are loud and his power remains absent.
39. 3B JOSH VITTERS: The former 3rd overall selection crushed the Pacific Coast League in 2012 en route to his Major League call up, BUT he never developed his discipline, has middling power, and has been injured for most of his age-23 season.
40. 1B ROCK SHOULDERS: A poor man's Dan Vogelbach with an even better name, Shoulders has big power, an adequate hit tool, and excellent discipline, BUT he strikes out way too much for a bat only player and has no value on defense or the basepaths.
41. RP P.J. FRANCESCON: An intriguing player to me, Francescon has borderline MLB stuff and has produced solid results, BUT his frame is slight and none of his pitches can carry him putting immense pressure on his command.
42. COF ZEKE DEVOSS: DeVoss has superb speed, otherworldly discipline and great defense, BUT he cannot hit and lacks power, especially for a corner outfielder.
43. RP ARMANDO RIVERO: The Cuban bonus baby came with a big arsenal, BUT the results have been horrific thus far for the 25-year-old in A ball.
44. SP ERIC JOKISCH: The big lefty Northwestern alum has climbed the organizational ladder well without much in the way of stuff, BUT he appears to have stalled out at Tennessee.
45. 2B GIOSKAR AMAYA: The 20-year-old Venezuelan has shown across-the-board average skills at Kane County, BUT his strikeout total is off the charts and will stomp out his career without an explosion of power.
46. COF YASIEL BALAGUERT: The hefty Dominican has crushed Northwest League pitching showing power, hit, and discipline, BUT he is a bat-only outfielder without hugely projectable offensive skills.
47. SP JAMES PUGLIESE: The tall righty has shown great improvement during his second attempt at Boise, BUT he is slow on the development curve and does not have an exciting arsenal.
48. 1B DUSTIN GEIGER: Geiger has a pretty well developed offensive approach that enables him to draw walks and make consistent solid contact, BUT his bat will have to carry him with little defensive value and no speed and the bat isn't special enough to do so.
49. RP KYLER BURKE: The former outfielder has succeeded in his transition to the Daytona starting rotation and he has enough with his high-80s fastball to make it as a relief option, BUT his pitches are not special and quickly developing command is his only hope.
50. RP LUIS LIRIA: Liria has a huge, mid-90s fastball, BUT he has never produced and has no command whatsoever.

*NOTE: Since I wrote this list last month and only touched it up to publish, I failed to mention the three players the Cubs have acquired via trade. SP Jake Arrieta isn't a prospect with 63 MLB starts under his belt. RP Pedro Strop also wouldn't make the list due to extensive MLB experience. However, Ivan Pineyro would. So here's a bonus entry that would slot in 36th (after Szczur and before Kirk):
RP IVAN PINEYRO: Currently a starter, the diminutive Pineyro has a strong fastball-changeup combination, BUT his curveball is lacking and his size will prevent him from sticking as a starting pitching possibility.