Neither of those picks impacted the Bears, but plenty of later picks did. I was flabbergasted to see Damon Arnette go at #19 with the Khalil Mack pick. I was confused by the trades involving the 25th and 26th picks that landed Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco and Jordan Love in Green Bay, respectively. Aiyuk looked like "just a guy" in my draft review. And whereas Aaron Rodgers was a possible #1 overall pick who inexplicably fell into the 20s, Love was a late-first round pick who got drafted late in the first round. He'll probably end up in the Hall of Fame anyway, but the Packers landing him wasn't a nightmare in the same mold as the Rodgers gift.
Perhaps just as surprising as some of the picks mentioned above are some of the prospects who stayed on the board entering the second round tonight. There's some genuinely good news for the Bears involving some of those names, which I'll address below. But first, a comment: the release of Trey Burton and the attempted trade of Adam Shaheen renders it increasingly likely that Ryan Pace will take a tight end in the second round tonight. I cannot state this clearly enough: doing so would be painful. Pace has already allocated an incredible amount of resources to the position between the cap space spent on Burton and Jimmy Graham and the draft capital spent on Shaheen. The results haven't been pretty, but Pace can't afford to completely neglect other position groups in favor of another tight end when he has a couple of plausible starting options already on the roster.
So, to restate the obvious: the Bears are already completely screwed in 2021/2022. While 2020 is likely to be a middling year as well, there's a sliver of hope that the team could contend for a playoff spot. With that in mind, it is unacceptable to allocate early draft resources to a quarterback, running back, tight end, nose tackle, or inside linebacker. There are too many quality players at other positions of desperate need. Besides, if Pace drafts a quarterback, he's drafting said QB for another coach/GM combination to develop. That never works.
With the above out of the way, here is a restatement of possible outcomes for tonight with drafted players struck through and a quartet of unexpectedly available players folded in with italics:
- Trade down. A few times. Pace is one-for-two trading back in the second round, ending up with OG Cody Whitehair the first time and TE Adam Shaheen the second time. In both events, trading down yielded valuable picks that turned into important contributors: ILB Nick Kwiatkoski, S Deon Bush, and, following another minor deal, S Eddie Jackson. Pace desperately needs to do that again.
- Get a couple of day-one starters by standing pat at #43 and #50. This player cannot be a running back, inside linebacker, defensive lineman, or tight end due to extreme needs elsewhere (I know that the preceding sentence is dumb). I didn't review the top-20 or so players in the class, so they won't appear here. Obviously if somebody undergoes an insane draft slide like OT Mekhi Becton or QB Tua Tagovailoa, the Bears should pounce. But since there's a 0.00000000001% chance of players like that reaching the middle of round two, they're not addressed here. Players I like in this range:
- OT Robert Hunt (Louisiana-Lafayette). What can I say? I'm a sucker for Ragin' Cajuns in round two (hat tip to Peanut). Hunt is my ideal prospect for the offensive line, a true tackle prospect who can start day one at guard. Hunt is seriously athletic, overpowering interior defensive linemen and shutting down edge rushers. It's tough to evaluate the quality of his competition, but the starter kit is there for a long-time starter. (After I compiled the 43 names on this list, I saw an NFL.com mock draft that mocked Hunt to the Bears...at #196 overall!)
- OLB Darrell Taylor (Tennessee). Wow. Taylor is remarkably explosive with the best get-off of an OLB I saw. At 6'4", 267 lbs., he has the size to play from day one. His body control and flexibility looked more like a slot receiver than an edge rusher. I couldn't believe how low to the ground he got on multiple rushes without losing his speed. If the Bears didn't have a horrible hole on the offensive line, Taylor would be my #1 player on this list.
CB A.J. Terrell (Clemson). Nearly my ideal get for the Bears. Terrell is lengthy (6'1") with great speed and agility. He has smooth moves. He lacks girth at 195 lbs., and at some point, Clemson DBs are going to run into issues having played against terrible competition all year. For Terrell, that meant getting toasted by Ja'Marr Chase in the National Championship Game. Nevertheless, I'd roll the dice with Terrell.- WR Denzel Mims (Baylor). 6'3", 207 lbs. with elite speed. His body control reminds me of Alshon's. He's hands aren't as sure, but he's much more athletic. He'd be a steal in the middle of round two in part because he's an idyllic red zone target who can both fight through coverage and get open in tight spaces. I don't understand why he isn't a top-20 prospect.
- C/G Lloyd Cushenberry (LSU). Cushenberry checks every box. He played center for LSU, so he has carried a significant burden against elite competition and held up. He has extremely long arms, moves well, and is plenty powerful to hold up in the NFL. His film against Alabama was really impressive.
- CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah). I'm not sure that Johnson has any elite skills, but I think he's genuinely good at everything. Good closing speed. Good but not elite size (6'0", 197 lbs.). Good hip turns. If there's one thing that appears elite, it's his football instincts. He looks like a perfect plug-and-play candidate.
- WR KJ Hamler (Penn State). There are a lot of reasons to be wary of Hamler detailed above. But there's one reason to love the guy and it's insanely important in the modern league governed by passing attacks and illegal contact penalties: speed. And Hamler has it in spades.
OT Isaiah Wilson (Georgia). Wilson is absolutely enormous at 6'6", 350 lbs., but he can move well enough. He fits the bill as a big body to plug into the interior while developing his footwork for the outside.WR Justin Jefferson (LSU). I'm a huge fan of his. He's got the speed to play inside or out with experience playing the slot. At 6'1", 200 lbs., he's got great size in the slot. He's more a strider than a quick-twitch option, but if he's available in the middle of round two, he has to merit serious consideration.- S Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne). Dugger is big (6'1", 217 lbs), fast, and strong. He's an ideal mate for Eddie Jackson at safety. But he played at Lenoir-Rhyne. It's hard to be confident about him as a day one starter, but if he is, he might be a star.
- S Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois). Chinn is huge, fast, and strong, running a 4.45 40 at 6'3", 221 lbs. Like Dugger before him, he's the right kind of safety to pair with Eddie Jackson. The big concern: what's his learning curve having played in the Missouri Valley Conference? That's for the scouts to determine. If he's adept enough to play right away, he'd be higher on this list. If he'll need a year or two to adjust, he'd be down in the next grouping despite the physical traits.
CB Jeff Gladney (TCU). Gladney's film reminds me of watching Kyle Fuller at Virginia Tech. Gladney is less fluid than Fuller was, but he's very athletic and runs well with all types of receivers. He's likely to be available in the second round due to poor size (only 5'10"), but he should be a plug-and-play draftee.- OT Josh Jones (Houston). Jones is an awful lot like Wanogho in terms of being a real left tackle prospect that needs some seasoning, but he sneaks in ahead of Wanogho because Jones appears to be ready to contribute as an interior lineman in 2020. He'd be a great get and I'm surprised that he's available. I think he looks a lot better as a run blocker right now, but he should be passable as a pass protector in year one.
- OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn). I like Wanogho as a left tackle prospect much more than Wilson, but Wanogho may not have a home on the interior in the NFL, making him slightly less attractive to the 2020 Bears. He's tremendously athletic, and his background as a swimmer and basketball player makes me even more confident that he'll have the unique fluidity required for elite production in the NFL. But I don't think the inside will work.
- OLB Julian Okwara (Notre Dame). At 6'4", 252 lbs., with really long arms, and elite quickness, Okwara is an ideal complement to Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn. Okwara brings the coverage skills that Leonard Floyd took with him to Los Angeles while also possessing the kind of pass-rush burst that is required for an OLB. I really like him.
- OLB Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State). OLB isn't a need in the same way as certain other positions, but the 3-4 defense only works with consistent edge pressure so it's always high on the list. Gross-Matos looks like a perfect 4-3 DE, but he should be a strong fit as a 3-4 OLB and he'd offer some versatility as a possible hand-in-the-dirt rusher on obvious pass rushing situations with Khalil Mack or Robert Quinn further outside.
- WR Michael Pittman Jr. (USC). Normally I'm leery of late-bloomers like Pittman, but when said late-bloomer is 6'5" with solid speed, good hands, and the ability to high-point the ball with hits mitts, I'll make an exception. He'd be a nice long-term complement to Allen Robinson on the outside. It's also likely that Kedon Slovis didn't run the most complicated offense at USC, so a more experienced QB could help Pittman emerge quickly at the next level.
G/C Cesar Ruiz (Michigan). I definitely didn't want to put Ruiz in this group, but he left me no choice. He's athletic with interior offensive line flexibility, and he's a multi-year starter against elite competition. Ruiz also fared well against the likes of Ohio State and Notre Dame. He'd be expected to start the opener. He checks all of the boxes.- G/C Jonah Jackson (Ohio State). It's weird to see Rutgers in this zone, even via a transfer. But Jackson earned his way here. His pass blocking is impressive, and at 6'3", 306 lbs., he should be able to hold up from day one. He's never going to be a mauler in the run game, but Jackson was superb against Clemson. That says something and suggests that his skills are translatable to the NFL.
- S Xavier McKinney (Alabama). I expected to like McKinney a lot more than I did given my expectation that he'd go in round one. He was a bit underwhelming on film. Nevertheless, he's definitely a day one plug-and-play starter, and the comfort level with Eddie Jackson should be there. He'd be an excellent complement as I was most impressed by his blitzing and run support while questioning his top-end speed. Jackson would help mask that limitation.
- WR Tee Higgins (Clemson). Higgins is a dream player in a different offense, one that is more interested in an explicitly vertical attack. Unfortunately, that's not a great fit for the Bears who want quickness and separation. I would've loved to see whether Higgins could separate from Jeff Okudah, but Higgins so obviously suffered an early concussion in the national semifinal that it's hard to meaningfully evaluate his production against Ohio State or LSU.
- OLB Terrell Lewis (Alabama). Lewis is the last player in this section. I really liked his film. He already has an ideal 3-4 OLB build at 6'5", 262 lbs., and he showed the ability to overpower and get around SEC offensive tackles with a seriously impressive burst. However, he comes with serious risk given a number of significant injuries in college. In this case, I think that the risk would be worth it.
- Stay at #43 and #50, and draft players that are OK but underwhelming, or that I like but without positional value. Players that are OK for the 2020 Bears but don't knock my socks off:
- DE Ross Blacklock (TCU). Blacklock was a lock for this spot. I love his film. He's incredibly explosive in an ideal 6'3", 290 lbs. frame. So why doesn't he get into the first group? Defensive end isn't a need in the same way as other positions are, and given that Pace will be drafting for his job, he'll need some 2020 starters from this draft. With Hicks, Robertson-Harris, and Nichols on board, DE just doesn't offer enough value to the 2020 team.
- S Grant Delpit (LSU). Delpit looks like a solid bet to be a solid starter, and comes with very good size (6'2", 213 lbs.) and coverage skills. So why is he in this lower grouping? The Bears need a safety next to Eddie Jackson who can offer quality run support, and Delpit doesn't appear to be that guy. He's an adept blitzer and strong in coverage, but he's unlikely to be that extra body in the box.
- CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama). Diggs has excellent size (6'1", 205 lbs.) and a rangy build. Unfortunately, he comes complete with an injury history that creates some risk. He also looks a bit more rigid than some of the other corners on this list and appears to lack elite speed.
- OT Lucas Niang (TCU). Niang has a true tackle future and I like his athleticism with his big size, but I'm worried about a torn labrum in his hip. The Bears need a day one starter on the offensive line, and Niang's recent injury may prevent him from being that guy. If he's healthy, he'd be at the top of this section. I'd expect him to be available at the end of the second round, so he could be the guy with a trade down.
CB Damon Arnette (Ohio State). It's really tough to put an Ohio State defensive back in this group given the Bears' needs and the Buckeyes' history of producing elite DBs, but Arnette's fluidity was much less impressive than I expected. I have no doubt that he'll be useful in run support, but he's not fast enough to play great man coverage. Because the Bears spend so much time in zone, he should be able to mask that deficiency, but there's risk here.- CB Kristian Fulton (LSU). I really wanted to like Fulton more, but he looked like a mid-round gamer on film instead of an upper echelon difference maker. He's got the size to be a starter and I like his feel for routes and the game, but his speed on film doesn't match his really impressive Combine 40 (4.46). I wouldn't be upset with Fulton, but I'm not clamoring for him either.
- DE Marlon Davidson (Auburn). Davidson's body and style of play don't line up at all. He's 6'3", 303 lbs., but he's a true powerful force off of the edge. I'd love to have him as a new age 4-3 DE, but that doesn't fit the Bears. I don't think he's a true edge setter as a 3-4 DE, but it sure would be fun to find out.
WR Jalen Reagor (TCU). He's plenty fast and has nice agility in tight spaces. His hands also look nice. On the whole, however, he looks a lot like Anthony Miller with good but not elite speed and lacking elite size. Reagor's agility could be the difference maker.- DE Justin Madubuike (Texas A&M). Madubuike isn't as unique as Davidson before him, but he does look like a solid 3-4 DE with some pass rushing upside. I liked his film rushing from the interior of the defensive line. How well that translates to the edge is an open question.
OT Austin Jackson (USC). He looks seriously athletic and projects as a true NFL tackle. But I'm underwhelmed by what I've seen and see a player who needs a year or two of development. That's not a plug-and-play lineman.CB Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn). He doesn't have much size (5'10", 198 lbs.) and I'm underwhelmed by his ball skills. Even in his highlights, he struggled to timely turn his head. However, he's got speed to burn, he's a very willing run defender, and would bring value in the return game if his value at CB didn't force him out of that role. He'd be an OK pick.- WR Gabriel Davis (UCF). AAC cornerbacks couldn't handle Davis, which sadly makes evaluating him tough. He's got good-but-not-great speed and I do like his hands catching balls in traffic. Ultimately his agility or lack thereof gets him dropped into this group because I question his YAC ability.
- Stay at #43 and #50, but draft players I don't like, either because of their skill sets or their fits with the Bears. Players I don't like for the 2020 Bears:
- WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame). Claypool is such an intriguing talent. I just don't think he's the right intriguing talent for the Bears offense. He's enormous, but he doesn't have the agility or the burst of the receivers that find themselves higher on this list despite his excellent 40 at the Combine.
- OLB Zack Baun (Wisconsin). Like Claypool above him, I think Baun is going to have a very successful NFL career. In fact, I think he's an excellent prospect...but he's definitely not a fit in the 3-4. He'd be homeless in that defense. He's a 4-3 OLB that is going to make some team extremely happy. His ranginess and coverage skills are seriously impressive, as is his speed rush. Employed occasionally, his rushing should be effective. Employed as his primary role as it would be in a 3-4, he'd get engulfed by the arms of NFL offensive tackles. PFF alarmingly indicated that Baun didn't generate a single pressure in 2019 via the bull rush. That's not a problem if he's primarily engaged in coverage. But a 3-4 OLB is primarily engaged in getting to the quarterback. I don't think Baun can do that in 2020, and I don't know if he ever will. Again, Baun looks like a 4-3 stud who would be miscast in the 3-4.
- OT Ezra Cleveland (Boise State). Cleveland excelled at the Combine, but he looks like he has a seriously long way to go as a functional football player. I was unimpressed by his power (or lack thereof), and I think he has a long way to go as a prospect. He's not a good fit on the inside in the short or long term.
- TE Cole Kmet (Notre Dame). Kmet can really move, but it doesn't appear as though he can block much at all. Further, the 2020 Bears will likely get similar production to what Kmet can offer from Adam Shaheen. Kmet looks much better beyond 2020, but that's not likely to matter to Pace.
- OG Shane Lemieux (Oregon). Lemieux can run, but he looks an awful lot like a player who isn't going to have enough power to hold up against NFL defensive linemen. The ceiling looks low here.
- DE A.J. Epenesa (Iowa). He'd be a luxury pick. He's a great 4-3 DE, but he's too big and not quick enough to play OLB in a 3-4. That doesn't fit here. Could he find a home as a 3-4 DE with some additional bulk? Perhaps, but that requires projection and time while lacking current positional value.
- OLB Josh Uche (Michigan). Uche has NFL pass rushing moves and quickness, but he doesn't look like an every-down player in the NFL. This is way too early for a situational player. He's more of a 4th/5th round pick in my eyes. At 245 lbs., I don't know how he'll be able to get big enough to make it work.
- S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Minnesota). Winfield has name recognition, had a ton of picks in 2019, and is fast enough to stick in the NFL. However, he's undersized for a safety (5'9") and I think he lacks the quickness required to play in the slot. Plus, as a slot CB, he doesn't offer positional value to the Bears in 2020. His picks were almost entirely the result of lollipop passes that floated into his hands. That's not a repeatable skill. If he turns into Honey Badger Jr., I'll eat these words (I'm still eating my words on Mahomes).
WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State). In a draft loaded with intriguing receivers, Aiyuk looks more like "just a guy" to me. I don't see particularly impressive body control, and I don't see a standout physical trait that scares me.- CB Bryce Hall (Virginia). Hall looks like a below-average starting cornerback. He has good size, but his speed looks only adequate while his ability to change direction and general explosiveness doesn't do it for me. He'd be great in the fourth round.
- DE Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma). Gallimore has a tremendous motor. Otherwise, he looks suspiciously like Bilal Nichols. I'm not sure why he's regarded this highly as his moves look unrefined. He'd be a nice get in the 4th/5th round territory.
- WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado). Shenault is a cool player who is a true wide receiver despite having the body and toughness of an elite running back (6'1", 227 lbs.). I should like him. So why don't I? Shenault was never open, not even in his highlights. He suffered a number of injuries in college, and simply couldn't separate from PAC-12 DBs. There's no way that's going to get easier in the NFL. No thanks.
- CB Troy Pride (Notre Dame). Pride has enough speed, size, and experience to warrant a serious look. But his film was poor. I saw a DB who was timid, indecisive, and completely unable to get off of a block in run support. He looks like a project in the NFL, a surprising result for a Notre Dame senior.
- Draft S Josh Metellus (Michigan) at any point in the draft. I've always been underwhelmed by him.
- Trade up. For the love of all that is good, please don't.
