Loving Day Two and Looking to Day Three

So, Ryan Pace did almost exactly what I wanted him to do on Day Two, only he (1) picked up one more fourth round pick than I hoped and (2) drafted an offensive lineman that represented exceptional value instead of grabbing a defensive back. I'm not arguing here: Pace gets an A+ from me for Day Two.

Thankfully for those of us who love to follow the draft, Day Three got a lot more interesting today. Entering Friday, the Bears owned the 127th (Martellus Bennett trade), 150th, 185th, 205th (Jared Allen trade), and 230th picks. Thanks to Pace's maneuvering, the club has added the 117th (trade down with Buffalo) and 124th (trade down with Seattle) picks, loading up on fourth round choices where upside developmental quarterbacks, slot receivers, raw pass rushing specialists, and a bevy of defensive backs may be found. That's music to my ears.

Assuming that Pace holds on to all of his picks (not exactly likely), the late fourth round will be an exciting time. Here's what I'm hoping to see from the general manager tomorrow:

1. Find a Starting-Caliber Defensive Back...but Really Two
The Bears' defensive backfield desperately needs additional bodies. The safety position could plausibly survive the 2016 season if Antrel Rolle magically finds one more season in his body and/or Harold Jones-Quartey proves to be a true revelation. Barring either of those developments, Adrian Amos needs some help. Either Duke's Jeremy Cash or Clemson's Jayron Kearse would be a solid strong safety addition while LSU's Jalen Mills remains attractive as a coverage-oriented backstop.

As for the corners, the need is just as extreme. Kalan Reed remains my top target, though Northwestern's Nick VanHoose is attractive based on strong ball skills and athleticism from a slightly undersized frame.

Even if it doesn't happen in the fourth round, Pace has to add more bodies in the secondary tomorrow.

2. Find a Specialist or Two
This is my excuse to sing the praises of wildly undersized Florida pass rusher Alex McCalister. He'd be a fine addition in the latter half of the draft to see if he can have a Mark Anderson 2006-type impact. South Carolina tight end Jerrell Adams looks like he'll never be a big threat in the passing game but he can block exceptionally well, qualifying him for the #2 tight end spot. All-purpose offensive weapon Pharoh Cooper could also fit as a slot receiver, though tiny Daniel Braverman looks like a real slot receiver with elite quickness.

At this juncture in the draft, I'd be happy to see Pace grab an incomplete player with a true NFL skill.

3. Grab that Kicker!
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I love Robbie Gould. He has lived my football dream. But it's time to move on, for cap and kickoff reasons. Ka'imi Fairbairn remains a favorite of mine.

In the end, there are oodles of options for Ryan Pace, including additional opportunities to trade up or down. If he keeps his pick, I'd enjoy the following:

117: CB Kalan Reed, Southern Miss
124: S   Jalen Mills, LSU
127: QB Connor Cook, Michigan State*
150: TE Jerrell Adams, South Carolina
185: WR Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan
205: K   Ka'imi Fairbairn, UCLA
230: NT Antwaun Woods, USC

*If Cook isn't available, let's go with CB Nick VanHoose from Northwestern.

A Shot at Redemption for Ryan Pace

We all love a good comeback story. Unfortunately for Bears fans, general manager Ryan Pace has positioned himself to make an epic comeback tonight after the disastrous decision to trade up last night in order to select the limited, wildly undersized, nearly 24-year-old Leonard Floyd. So what does Pace have to do to turn his F- draft into a tolerable C?

1. Find Value Elsewhere

Pace's best chance for doing this is to acquire an extra pick or two, even if one is a future pick. NFL teams chronically undervalue future picks, largely because front offices and coaching staffs worry about their longevity of employment. Pace and John Fox face no such concerns, so taking a 2017 pick back in a trade is no problem. Drafting the raw Floyd makes this path even more acceptable.

And while fans always want their teams to trade down, sometimes it isn't that easy. Thankfully for Pace, that's not the case this year, which brings us to...

2. Find a Starting Caliber Five-Technique Defensive End

This is where Pace has a chance to fulfil his first need, too. The second round is bursting with five technique talent. By my count, in order of preference, A'Shawn Robinson, Adolphus Washington, Austin Johnson, Jarran Reed, Chris Jones, and Jonathan Bullard all fit the bill. With just nine picks coming off the board before the Bears draft at #41 tonight, at least a couple of those players should be on the board at that time. If there's an opportunity for Pace to get back the fourth rounder he surrendered last night for moving down 5-10 spots, he has to consider the move.

I'm particularly fond of Robinson, so I'd love to see him come aboard. He may not project as a star, but he looks like a Day One starter who could solidify the line next to Eddie Goldman, freeing up the team's bevy of new linebackers to make plays. The 3-4 doesn't work without strong end play.

With all of that said...

3. Find the Most Talented Prospects
The Bears are at a spot in their development where impact should definitely trump need/fit. Thus, if the choice is Myles Jack versus Chris Jones, Jack should absolutely be the pick provided that his knee is workable.

Because I expect Jack to go at #32 to whichever team acquires Cleveland's pick, I'd like to see the Bears trade down in round two and select one of the defensive ends listed above while using their third round pick on a defensive back, unless...

4. If the Right Quarterback is Available, Scoop Him Up
To me, this only applies if Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg miraculously slips to the third round.

Barring that, one of the defensive ends above in round two and a defensive back like corner Kalan Reed or ball hawk safety Kevin Byard would go a long way toward calming my nerves.

Final Bears Thoughts on Draft Day Eve

I'm writing on my phone from gorgeous Johnson City, Tennessee, so I'll have to keep this brief. Here goes:

Do not, under any circumstances, draft Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd. Floyd is rangy and quick, but he's consistently off-balance and plays out of control. He's the next Aaron Maybin, a "pass rushing force" who is great in college but engulfed and neutralized by NFL tackles. Don't do it, Ryan Pace.

I also don't want to see Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott be the pick. Elliott looks amazing, but the defensive holes and remaining gaps on both lines are both more pressing and more essential to address from a team-building standpoint. I'll be twistedly excited if Elliott is the pick, but I'll be disappointed at the same time. Weird.

With that said, I'm excited for draft night. I'd feel eminently better about the Bears drafting 9th than 11th, but there's still a good chance that one of my top targets makes it.

For purposes of this ranking, I'll assume that Cal QB Jared Goff, North Dakota State QB Carson Wentz, and Florida State S Jalen Ramsey are categorically off the board. With that in mind, here is my list of nine players to target at #11, starting with my least favorite and ending with my top choice.

9. Ohio State CB Eli Apple
----- I love Apple but I've been hopeful that the Bears can nab him at #41. If this is what it takes, it's a reach. But at least I like the player.

8. Alabama DE A'Shawn Robinson
----- I love watching Robinson play football, but he seems much less explosive now than I remembered him being a few months ago. He'd still be a nice five technique fit.

7. Notre Dame OT Ronnie Stanley
----- I like Stanley a lot, too, but Charles Leno showed enough to deserve an extended look, Bobby Massie just got a significant free agent deal, and I think that defensive needs are more significant. I'll be only mildly disappointed if Stanley is the pick. He makes oodles of sense.

6. Clemson DE Shaq Lawson
----- I like Lawson, but I don't love him. He has the look of an average starting DE and that's not sexy at #11. Plenty of people like him a lot more; I don't think he's quick enough.

5. Flordia CB Vernon Hargreaves
----- Hargreaves is fast. Like, crazy fast. Normally I hate smallish corners - hence the hefty Apple appearing above - but Hargreaves gets an exception. He's explosive.

4. Ohio State DE Joey Bosa
----- It was unthinkable a month ago that Bosa could slip to #11, but the pre-draft process has been unkind to him. As a classic 4-3 defensive end, he is something of a tweener in the 3-4, a bit big to play OLB and possibly a bit small to play end. I still think he'd make an excellent five technique defensive end with another ten pounds on his frame and I'd love to see it happen.

3. Mississippi OT Laremy Tunsil
---- Tunsil almost certainly isn't making it to #11, but if he slips, I'll be ecstatic. He's a franchise left tackle for the next decade. He's basically the perfect tackle prospect with measurables and superb tape against elite competition.

2. UCLA LB Myles Jack
----- I haven't been sneaky about it: I think Jack is going to be a superstar in the NFL, and I think his ability to run and hit in the middle of a 3-4 would be incredible. It may seem like an odd fit now given that Pace added both Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman in free agency, the top two inside linebackers on the market, but (1) Jack is that impactful, and (2) Freeman is effectively on a glorified one-year deal. Grab the best player and make it work.

1. Oregon DE DeForest Buckner
----- Unlike Jack, Buckner comes without the need to play roster Jenga: the Bears desperately need an  impact five technique player to accelerate their defensive rebuild and Buckner happens to be my favorite player in this draft, regardless of position. He's both an ideal specimen and a really good football player. Accordingly, he's my ideal target tomorrow night.

Regardless of who the Bears draft in the first round, I'd like to see the club add a defensive end, a safety, and two cornerbacks in the draft. The secondary desperately needs additional playmakers and safeties who figure to be available in the second or third round like Ohio State's Vonn Bell or LSU's Jalen Mills would be of tremendous help. I'd love to see a couple of super-fast, still raw upside plays and another offensive tackle prospect would make sense.

There we have it. If Buckner or Jack is a Bear this time tomorrow, I'll be ecstatic. If Floyd is a Bear, I'll be severely disappointed. Bring on the draft!

2016 Chicago Cubs Player Predictions - Position Players

It's time again for predictions for the 2016 Chicago Cubs. Following last year's rousing success of a season, expectations are high and hopes are higher for the 2016 club. Let's see how the players might do. For each chart listed below, the PA, UZR and WAR columns reflect the player's total for that position only whereas the remaining columns reflect the player's total for all positions.

Catcher

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Montero, Miguel	400	.240	.335	.400	15	0	10	2.3
Ross, David	125	.205	.280	.325	5	0	10	0.5
Schwarber, Kyle	100	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-5	0.5
Contreras, Willson	15	.250	.310	.380	1	0	0	0.0

The catching group has a beautifully clean transition plan in place. Of course, the odds of such a transition actually occurring as expected are remote.

As I see it, the 2016 group figures to be comprised primarily of a combination of Miguel Montero and David Ross with a sprinkling of Kyle Schwarber. After Ross retires following the 2016 season, the 2017 tandem of Montero and hot prospect Willson Contreras looks likely to handle the job. After Montero's contract expires at the end of the 2017 season, the job should be Contreras's to lose with fellow prospect Victor Caratini given the first crack to be the complementary reserve.

For 2016, this figures to be one of the weaker links on the team and that says something given Montero's league-average production in 2015 before factoring in his elite framing ability. It'll be worth keeping an eye on how much the coaching staff trusts Schwarber behind the dish. Regardless, 3.3 WAR production would be well above average.

First Base

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Rizzo, Anthony	680	.290	.395	.540	37	8	6	6.5
Zobrist, Ben	20	.275	.365	.480	21	2	0.1	0.1

Hello! It's a little bizarre to project something of a mini-breakout for an established star like Rizzo, but I'm going for it for a few reasons. First, he's 26, an age at which a bit more growth would be warranted. Second, he fixed his major flaw last year, posting a 145 wRC+ against southpaws. Third, the lineup around Rizzo was strong in 2015 but it figures to be absurdly strong in 2016: he should be surrounded by the likes of Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and Kyle Schwarber this year. While his walk rate may take a tiny dip as a result, I expect that he'll set a new career high for home runs even after belting 32 and 31 over 2014-15. Health has been key for Rizzo, so it will be interesting to see if Joe Maddon rests his slugging first baseman over Rizzo's protests.

Regardless, 6.6 WAR from the position would likely lead the Majors.

Second Base

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Zobrist, Ben	520	.275	.365	.480	21	2	8	3.8
Baez, Javier	90	.245	.295	.430	15	10	2	0.2
La Stella, Tommy	70	.280	.320	.365	2	0	1	0.2
Kawasaki, Munenori	20	.230	.300	.280	0	0	0.2	0

Second base is one of a few spots for the 2016 Cubs that has the ability of going in numerous different ways. While Ben Zobrist is penciled in as the everyday starter at the spot, injuries in the outfield and/or to Zobrist himself could result in a multitude of other players getting time at the keystone. Here's the thing: after years of health, Zobrist's 2015 injury appears to be an outlier, so I'm betting on a return to health for him in 2016. In addition to health, I think that he's going to enjoy hitting at Wrigley Field after spending time in a plethora of pitcher's parks during his career. He's also likely to benefit from hitting near the top of a loaded lineup. Everything is coming together for Zobrist to enjoy a return to under-the-radar stardom in 2016. If anything, this pick is a bit conservative.

Third Base

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Bryant, Kris	640	.270	.385	.520	34	10	5	6.5
Baez, Javier	40	.245	.295	.430	15	10	1	0.1
La Stella, Tommy	20	.280	.320	.365	2	0	0	0.1

This is the part where I start drooling. My affection for Bryant has never been a secret, but even after last year's BABIP-fueled star-level debut, I think he's going to blow the top off of his perceived ceiling. He's that good. Some slight regression from his defense and his baserunning will offset his offensive gains in terms of WAR, but Bryant will firmly entrench himself as one of the 10 or so elite offensive forces in baseball this year. Amazing!

Shortstop

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Russell, Addison	620	.275	.345	.450	20	20	20	5.5
Baez, Javier	80	.245	.295	.430	15	10	-1	0.4

Not to be outdone, fellow sophomore Addison Russell is well on his way to reminding folks that he's a budding star as well. He certainly has an uphill climb to reach the Bryant tier, but Russell has the combined defensive acumen and offensive potential to get there, especially considering his positional value. With Starlin Castro now the Yankees' problem, Russell has a job on a platter with a chance to show folks how truly special he is. I think he's going to be the breakout player in baseball this year.

Left Field

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Schwarber, Kyle	460	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-5	3.5
Soler, Jorge	180	.275	.350	.445	20	0	-3	0.7
Zobrist, Ben	60	.275	.365	.480	21	2	0.5	0.3

Left field could go a lot of different directions in 2016, but at the outset, it appears as though Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler will man the position for the majority of the time. If you find yourself thinking, "hey wait, wouldn't that be a terrible defensive position?" just know that I'm with you. I expect that somebody will make the roster by virtue of having a strong glove with which to cover this spot in the late innings of tight games, but for now, Zobrist is the placeholder.

Center Field

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Fowler, Dexter	450	.270	.365	.420	12	15	-10	1
Heyward, Jason	220	.275	.360	.455	20	20	3	2
Szczur, Matt	30	.250	.300	.330	1	2	0	0

This position looks a whole lot different than it did at the start of Spring Training. With Dexter Fowler back in the fold, he and Jason Heyward figure to handle the vast majority of the duties up the middle. Fowler comes with a long injury history, so the bet here is that he doesn't make it through a full season. No matter: the Cubs are wonderfully equipped to handle a prolonged absence.

Right Field

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Heyward, Jason	460	.275	.360	.455	20	20	10	4.5
Soler, Jorge	220	.275	.350	.445	20	0	-3	1
Schwarber, Kyle	20	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-0.1	.2

For a while this winter, it appeared as though Soler would have this spot for the taking, giving him access to a full-time gig in which to prove his chops as an everyday player. However, with the return of Fowler to play center field and with prospect Albert Almora turning things on in the second half at Double-A last year, Soler may find himself on the trade block in the not-too-distant future unless he hits his way into a regular gig. The bet here is that a Fowler injury gives Soler that opportunity and he earns his keep...before finding himself dealt elsewhere this winter anyway. No matter: for 2016, Soler may be the most valuable reserve bat in the game.

Designated Hitter

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Soler, Jorge	50	.275	.350	.445	20	0	0	0.3

After singing Soler's praises above, it only makes sense that the fragile corner outfielder will be the primary DH in American League parks.

POSITION PLAYER TOTALS
Here's a composite list of expected output for each player on the 2016 Cubs. Disclaimer: this looks especially rosy.

Name	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	UZR	WAR
Bryant, Kris	640	.270	.385	.520	34	10	5	6.5
Rizzo, Anthony	680	.290	.395	.540	37	8	6	6.5
Heyward, Jason	680	.275	.360	.455	20	20	13	6.5
Russell, Addison	620	.275	.345	.450	20	20	20	5.5
Zobrist, Ben	600	.275	.365	.480	21	2	8.6	4.2
Schwarber, Kyle	580	.265	.360	.495	30	3	-10.1	4.2
Montero, Miguel	400	.240	.335	.400	15	0	10	2.3
Soler, Jorge	450	.275	.350	.445	20	0	-6	2.0
Fowler, Dexter	450	.270	.365	.420	12	15	-10	1.0
Ross, David	125	.205	.280	.325	5	0	10	0.5
Baez, Javier	210	.245	.295	.430	15	10	2	0.7
La Stella, Tommy	90	.280	.320	.365	2	0	1	0.3
Szczur, Matt	30	.250	.300	.330	1	2	0	0.0
Kawasaki, Munenori	20	.230	.300	.280	0	0	0.2	0.0
Contreras, Willson	15	.250	.310	.380	1	0	0	0.0

If that comes true, the Cubs will easily win 100+ games and enter October as prohibitive favorites to win the World Series.

But you have to pitch, too. Thankfully, the Cubs are really good at pitching as well. I'll tackle that in the next post.