A Bears Blockbuster and Final Free Agency Preview

It's late, so let's get right to it. Bears GM Ryan Poles spent weeks indicating that any team wanting to obtain the #1 overall pick in April's draft well in advance of draft day would have to pay a premium to do so. On Friday afternoon, Poles made good on his word. The haul:

• #9 overall
• #61 overall
• 2024 1st
• 2025 2nd
• WR D.J. Moore

I considered so many trade proposals along the way, many of them with the Panthers. Yet never once did I consider that any team trading for #1 overall would trade away their top receiver, leaving their new prized quarterback to fend for himself without the help of a top receiving option. I was wrong.

Most commentators adore the return that Poles snared for this pick. I'm with them, ultimately deciding that this was a spectacular haul for a few reasons.

But first, the "negatives." That word is in quotes because these aren't true negatives, rather unpleasant components with the trade. First, I don't like that Poles didn't get Carolina's own 2nd round pick in 2023 (#39), instead only getting San Francisco's selection (#61). Second, I expected this trade to feature more picks coming back to the Bears, albeit in the form of a couple of 3rds or 4ths to go along with the more premium picks. Third, Poles made the trade when I was packing up for a weekend away. Not his fault -- just bad timing for me!

Instead, Poles went with fewer, more premium assets. Objectively, I think he made a great choice. So what all did I like about this deal?

Most importantly, Poles extracted the desired premium for making an early trade. Obviously he got Carolina's 1sts in 2023 and 2024; outside of dealing with Houston, that was going to be a given. The other parts of the deal were what was at stake. There's a decent argument to be made that getting #9, #61, a 2024 1st, and a 2025 2nd would've been a fair composite deal. Not a barnburner but fair. But that's not where we are.

Instead, arguably the single most valuable asset that Poles received in the deal is Moore. Is Moore a bonafide #1? I'm not 100% certain, but I think so. The fact that he's (i) in that category, (ii) signed to a significantly under-market deal (three years, $52M remaining), and (iii) in his prime when turning 26 this season makes him a dynamite addition. This year's free agent crop of receivers is dreadful. And while the draft features some intriguing options, none of the possible draftees are in their prime with a trio of 1,100-yard seasons in the NFL under their belt. Moore enables the Bears to more fully evaluate QB Justin Fields, to spend some desperately needed cash (more on that in a moment), and to slot fellow WRs Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool into preferred roles as complementery pieces.

Some folks on Bears Twitter complained that Poles only got one future 1st back in the deal, lamenting that Carolina's 2025 pick didn't come to Chicago. To me, that shows a fundamental misunderstanding of Moore's value and what it would take to acquire a player of his ilk on its own. Simply put, if a team offered a single 2025 1st for D.J. Moore, they wouldn't be in the ballpark. The price for Moore started with a 2023 1st plus additional compensation. This isn't merely hypothetical; reporting indicates that the Packers offered their 1st for Moore during the season and were turned down. So, if Moore is worth north of a 2023 1st, replacing a 2025 1st with Moore would make this deal a massive win. More likely, if a 2025 1st was going to be the centerpiece of a Moore deal, I suspect it would've come along with a 2023 2nd.

So, had the haul for #1 overall instead been the following, would Bears fans have rejoiced?

• #9 overall
• #40 overall
• #61 overall
• 2024 1st
• 2025 1st
• 2025 2nd

Duh. Of course. That kind of haul likely would've been seen as too much. But that's the kind of value that Poles just got, plus he gets to give his third-year quarterback a chance to make the leap as a passer that I believe he'll make. Truly incredible stuff.

This may be the best trade that the Bears have made in my lifetime. And all this because of Lovie Smith. What a hero!

Actually, one more though on the luck that the Bears enjoyed. While there's no true generational QB like Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams at the top of this draft, there are enough franchise-caliber QBs that the Bears could swing this deal. Had the Bears instead had the #1 pick in last year's draft, would there have been any market for this pick? There were some quality players at the top of last year's draft like Aidan Hutchinson, Sauce Gardner, and Kayvon Thibodeaux, but no team traded up to grab a top-10 player with the first trade-up being New Orleans jumping to #11 to draft Chris Olave.

This trade dictates what the 2020s will be for the Bears, but the likelihood of the stars aligning as they did for this to happen? Astronomical.

Building the Bears: 2023 Mock Offseason (One Week from Free Agency)

As was the case a week ago, since my initial post on this topic, I've spent a tremendous amount of time digging through this free agent class and the draft class to follow. Most of my thoughts on the Bears' top needs still track well with the initial post linked above, but there are a couple of thoughts that have emerged since that time. With the Combine now in the rearview mirror and with an unfortunate injury to USC G Andrew Vorhees, here's where things stand:

1. Despite the depth in the DE draft class and lack of impact DEs available in free agency, the Bears need to find at least one rotation DE in free agency.
2. Finding at least one and likely two starters at DT in free agency is even more important. The draft class features three attractive 3 technique DTs: Jalen Carter, Bryan Bresee, and Karl Brooks. Unfortunately, Calijah Kancey and Moro Ojomo both likely lack the size that Matt Eberflus covets. The defense doesn't work without a 3 technique, so signing one -- and then hopefully drafting another -- is the only prudent path ahead.
3. The TE class is quite similar to the DT class. Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta, and Darnell Washington are all attractive prospects, but they all figure to come off the board in the first two rounds and only Tucker Kraft looks attractive in the 3rd/4th/5th range, likely going in the 3rd. The Bears need another starting-caliber TE to complement Cole Kmet. As such, grabbing a free agent TE who can eat some snaps is necessary.
4. RT should be the easiest spot to address in free agency. There are a trio of quality options available for cash who are the right age. Looking at you, Mike McGlinchy, Kaleb McGary, and Jawaan Taylor.
5. The interior OL spots are trickier. Cody Whitehair and Lucas Patrick should both be cut due to cap and production issues. The draft has some quality options with centers Luke Wypler, Joe Tippmann, and John Michael Schmitz standing out as options in Round 2, and I think that Tippmann and Schmitz could play guard for a year or two. Guards are trickier. The Bears like linemen who can move and some of the best guard targets, like O'Cyrus Torrence, look too big to move well in Chicago's outside-zone scheme. Steve Avila might have the quickness to make it work, and I do like his experience at both C and LG while at TCU. I maintain that bringing in a new starting center is the most important move that the club can make, but I can now see a scenario where they keep Lucas Patrick on the roster through the draft, signing a RT and LG while waiting to see if a new C emerges on draft weekend.
6. The Bears need new blood at LB. While at least one draftee will likely come aboard, they should sign a starting-capable body, even if only to a modest deal.

With the above in mind, here's my free agency track to set up the club for the draft:

1. Sign a 3 technique DT: Javon Hargrave, Dre'mont Jones, or Sheldon Rankins. Jones is younger (26 v. 30), Hargrave is better. Hargrave likely commands $20M per year, but he's worth it. For what is effectively a two-year deal, Hargrave is the centerpiece of the Bears' free agency push on a 3-year, $60M deal. If it's Rankins instead, the need to draft a 3 tech remains at the top of the list.
2. Sign RT Mike McGlinchy or RT Kaleb McGary. McGlinchy has the preferred pedigree and longer history of solid production, but McGary has showed a higher ceiling after a star turn in 2022. I'm leaning McGary now. Ah! Contract in the neighborhood of 4 years, $60M.
3. Sign DE Marcus Davenport. Davenport's market could go numerous directions, but I think there's a decent chance he could take a one-year deal coming off of a disastrous platform year. If he signs for something like $12M on a one-year pact, it better be with the Bears. If he commands $100M over five years, well, that's the cost of doing business. The Bears need a huge infusion of talent up front and Davenport is the only DE with a top-level ceiling. If Davenport doesn't sign, then sign a second-tier DE; could be a young guy like Arden Key, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Samson Ebukam, or Charles Omenihu, or an older option like Trey Flowers, Justin Houston, or Melvin Ingram. I'm partial here to Okoronkwo and Omenihu Houston as my hope is that the Bears find their top DE starter in the draft (Omenihu has a domestic violence arrest hanging over his head). I'm not interested in former Chief Frank Clark given his own multiple felony arrests.
4. Sign a one technique DT like Dalvin Tomlinson or A'Shawn Robinson (and then cut Justin Jones). Jones is a 3 tech, but I can see the Bears holding onto him until the other starting DT gig has been filled. Ideally with Tomlinson for something like $27M over three years. If it's Robinson, a bit less, like $15M over two years.
5. Sign a top C like Ethan Pocic, Garrett Bradbury, Connor McGovern, or Bradley Bozeman. Although I like the draft options at center, it's imperative that the Bears have a quality starting C in September, so here's the hope that they grab one of these guys on a deal paying $30M over three years. I've been partial to Pocic for a while, but I'm leaning toward Bradbury now. He's similar to McGary as a one-year wonder, but he's got the pedigree and now the production to match. If a center doesn't work out, sign a LG to a modest deal; consider Nate Davis and Ben Powers. Spending big here on Isaac Seumalo would be lovely, but I think that the Bears will allocate their bigger dollars above. This could get complicated quickly if the guard market takes off, pushing the Bears toward the numerous quality centers in free agency. If Davis can be had for something like $24M over three years, great.
6. Sign a starting LB: either an older LB on a short-term deal like Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, or Eric Kendricks...or, better yet, splurge for a young star in the middle of the defense. Both Wagner and David are elite; both are also old. The Bears could use an infusion of skill and leadership alongside Jack Sanborn. If that comes in a productive package without long-term dollars, great! Younger studs like Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards, or even a more modest acquisition like Bobby Okereke or Germaine Pratt, would also be great. I preferred Edmunds to Roquan Smith in 2018, so here's an opportunity to right that wrong on a big deal with the young 'backer made more palatable given the expected hot market for Okereke: $64M over four years gets Edmunds.
7. Sign a mediocre veteran TE to a short-term deal, like Austin Hooper or Hayden Hurst. These two are interchangeable in my mind. I'd love to see Mike Gesicki with the Bears and he's coming off of a dreadful year that should depress his market value, but Gesicki (i) can't block, and (ii) will still likely command too much money. I think Hooper ends up around $14M over two years...but this is where the Bears save money, instead providing Naperville native Cameron Brate with a soft landing to end his career on a one-year, $3M deal.

If the above comes together, here's the haul:

1. DT Hargrave: $20M AAV
2. LB Edmunds: $16M AAV
3. RT McGary: $15M AAV
4. DE Davenport: $12M AAV
5. C   Bradbury: $10M AAV
6. DT Tomlinson: $9M AAV
7. TE Brate: $3M AAV

Many of the above deals are designed to bridge the gap for the next year or two while this year's and next year's draft classes round into form. Davenport and Brate would be fully off the books by 2024, and Hargrave and Tomlinson would likely have minimal guarantees in 2025, if any. These deals allocate $85M for AAV purposes -- an allocation that will certainly be lower on the 2023 cap -- but the Bears should still have north of $100M of cap space once additional cuts are made anyway (Whitehair, Jones, Patrick, Santos, etc.), so there's plenty of space, even leaving a bit of room for some extensions for the likes of Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. Assume that Deandre Houston-Carson, Khari Blasingame, and Patrick Scales come back, too.

With free agency in the books, let's get to that draft! As always, this is completed doing an actual mock draft with PFF's mock draft simulator.

I was formerly excited by the idea of dealing with Indianapolis so that the Bears could still presumably come away with DE Will Anderson or DT Jalen Carter, but Carter's legal issues have pushed me toward two ideal possible outcomes, both of which involve the Bears tumbling down the draft. The #4 pick just isn't as attractive as it used to be.

1. One big trade down to #9 (Carolina), #11 (Tennessee), or even #16 (Washington).
2. A flip with Houston for some modest picks, then a traditional auction for #2 among all of the other QB-needy teams.

The timing complicates matters. A single trade can be accomplished at basically any time, though likely in March. This locks in a draft haul and removes the possibility of something squirrely happening on draft weekend. A double-trade likely means a trade around the start of the new league year on March 15 followed by another deal closer to draft day...unless it's a trade from #1 to #2, then another deal further down the board. That's my preferred methodology at this point. So here goes:

Bears trade #1 to Houston for #2, #65, #73, and a 2024 3rd

I don't think that the Bears can touch a 1st -- this year or later -- in a one-spot move, but it's possible that Houston's #33 overall selection could be on the table. Instead, we track the Trubisky deal with a modest premium reflecting the fact that Houston gets their pick of the litter.

Bears trade #2 and #134 to Carolina for #9, #39, #93, a 2024 1st, and a 2025 1st

This is a good trade, but it's not the dream trade. It doesn't add oodles of draft capital. But in the end, the Bears net two 1sts, a 2nd, and three 3rds for the drop from #1 to #9, plus a nice jump from the late 4th to the late 3rd this year.

There will be an incredible amount of interest in #9 overall with all of the WRs and all of the OTs still on the board. As a result, making another deal might actually prove tough. Thus...

#9: Bears select Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

It's time to fill out the receiving corps to complete the evaluation of Justin Fields. Smith-Njigba could be a #1. Passing on Paris Johnson Jr., Peter Skoronski, and Myles Murphy here was tough.

Bears trade #39 to Seattle for #51 and #83

Reminds me of when the Bears traded down and still got Cody Whitehair back in 2016. That's 83rd pick is likely another starter.

#51: Bears select Kansas State DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah

A day one starter. (Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz went at #50)

#54: Bears select TCU LG Steve Avila

Avila had a mediocre Combine, which could leave him on the board later than expected. I suspect that the Bears would be happy to grab an interior lineman with position flexibility here.

#64: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton

I thought about Andre Carter II here -- I'm still intrigued by him as a prospect -- but he had a truly brutal Combine. His athleticism scores lagged and his 11 reps on the bench are a deal breaker.

Instead, without an appropriate 3 tech on the board, I opted for an emerging 1 tech in Benton.

Bears trade #65 to New York Jets for #74 and #112

The Jets came up for Stanford QB Tanner McKee, enabling the Bears to add a bit more to the arsenal of picks.

#73: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta

In the middle of the 3rd, if LaPorta is on the board, I desperately want the Bears to find a way to get their hands on him.

#74: Bears select Tulane RB Tyjae Spears

This is earlier than I wanted to go for Spears, but I do like him a bit better than Achane and love grabbing his explosion for the offense.

Bears trade #83 to San Francisco for #101 and 2024 3rd

This was a strange spot in the draft. I liked plenty of players but didn't love any. So, I punted the choice to next year's 3rd round, grabbing a compensatory pick 18 spots later for doing so. I like this kind of trade.

#93: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks

I love Brooks. He's a giant ball of clay who projects as a 3 technique, though maybe not for a couple of years. If he hits, hooray! In the meantime, he can play some on the outside, too, while he develops.

#101: Bears select Wake Forest WR A.T. Perry

I didn't expect to take another wideout, but Perry was too enticing to pass up here. He should be a true X as he develops, giving him some time behind Chase Claypool.

#103: Bears select Missouri DE Isaiah McGuire

McGuire looks good. He doesn't look great. I'm not sure how projectable he is, but after taking Dominique Robinson last year, perhaps a more polished, middle-of-the-road rotational DE isn't such a bad thing.

#112: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss

I really like Moss. He was productive at Iowa and has the frame to play in the Eberflus defense. Then, he tested well enough at the Combine to project as a starter in the not-too-distant future given his immense playing experience in college.

#137: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown

Brown followed a rough Senior Bowl with a stellar Combine. That should have him in approximately this neighborhood of the draft, and the Bears would surely love to grab him here.

#150: Bears select Louisville LB Yasir Abdullah

After playing a stand-up hybrid role at Louisville, the Bears can try to groom Abdullah into a more traditional off-ball role, something that should work given his overall athletic profile.

#220: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody

A big leg who is better than Cairo Santos.

QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian

RB: Khalil Herbert, Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, Trestan Ebner

FB: Khari Blasingame

WR: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, A.T. Perry

TE: Cole Kmet, Cameron Brate, Sam LaPorta, ___________

OT: Braxton Jones, Kaleb McGary, Alex Leatherwood, Larry Borom

G: Teven Jenkins, Steve Avila

C: Garrett Bradbury, Doug Kramer

DE: Marcus Davenport, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Isaiah McGuire, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson

DT: Javon Hargrave, Dalvin Tomlinson, Keeanu Benton, Karl Brooks, _____________

LB: Tremaine Edmunds, Jack Sanborn, Yasir Abdullah, Sterling Weatherford, _____________

CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, Riley Moss

S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, DeAndre Houston-Carson, _____________

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

That roster yields 25 offensive players, 24 defensive players, and 3 special teamers, leaving one flex roster spot. The safety room remains a bit light, but every other position group except for QB gets a big talent boost. Most importantly, the lines on both sides of the ball get a blitz of new talent. I could see Gipson getting shipped out in a trade for a similarly-situated CB -- non-starter rotation player nearing the end of his rookie deal -- but if this was the roster come September 2023, there would be so much excitement in Bears country. It's a bit jarring to think that the roster could really absorb 15 draftees and 10 free agents (including veterman minimum resignings), but that's where we are.

Finally, the Bears would find themselves with extra picks in 2024 in the 1st (Carolina), 3rd (Houston), and 3rd again (San Francisco) rounds in addition to their full slate of picks as well as an extra 1st in 2025 (Carolina). Should they need to go big game hunting for a WR/DE/LT in 2024, the resources are there to make a move.

Building the Bears: 2023 Mock Offseason (February Update)

Since my initial post on this topic, I've spent a tremendous amount of time digging through this free agent class and the draft class to follow. Most of my thoughts on the Bears' top needs still track well with the initial post linked above, but there are a couple of thoughts that have emerged since that time, as follows:

1. Despite the depth in the DE draft class, the Bears need to find at least one starter there in free agency.
2. Finding at least one and likely two starters at DT in free agency is even more important. The draft class features three attractive 3 technique DTs: Jalen Carter, Bryan Bresee, and Karl Brooks. Unfortunately, Calijah Kancey and Moro Ojomo both likely lack the size that Matt Eberflus covets. The defense doesn't work without a 3 technique, so signing one -- and then hopefully drafting another -- is the only prudent path ahead.
3. The TE class is quite similar to the DT class. Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, Sam LaPorta, and Darnell Washington are all attractive prospects, but they all figure to come off the board in the first two rounds and only Tucker Kraft looks attractive in the 3rd/4th/5th range. The Bears need another starting-caliber TE to complement Cole Kmet. As such, grabbing a free agent is necessary.
4. RT should be the easiest spot to address in free agency. There are a couple of quality options available for cash who are the right age. Looking at you, Mike McGlinchy and Kaleb McGary.
5. The interior OL spots are trickier. The draft has some quality options with centers Luke Wypler, Joe Tippmann, and John Michael Schmitz standing out as options in Round 2, and I think that Tippmann and Schmitz could play guard for a year or two. Guards are trickier. The Bears like linemen who can move and many of the best guard targets, like O'Cyrus Torrence and Steve Avila, look too big to move well in Chicago's outside-zone scheme. I maintain that bringing in a new starting center is the most important move that the club can make, but I can now see a scenario where they keep Lucas Patrick on the roster through the draft, signing a RT and LG while waiting to see if a new C emerges on draft weekend.
6. The Bears need new blood at LB. While at least one draftee will likely come aboard, they should sign a starting-capable body, even if only to a modest deal.

With the above in mind, here's my free agency track to set up the club for the draft:

1. Sign a 3 technique DT: Javon Hargrave, Dre'mont Jones, or Sheldon Rankins. Jones is younger (26 v. 30), Hargrave is better. Hargrave likely commands $20M per year, but he's worth it. For what is effectively a two-year deal, Hargrave is the centerpiece of the Bears' free agency push on a 3-year, $60M deal. If it's Rankins instead, the need to draft a 3 tech remains at the top of the list.
2. Sign RT Mike McGlinchy or RT Kaleb McGary. I have a slight preference for McGlinchy given his preferred pedigree and longer history of solid production, so let's say he's the one. Contract in the neighborhood of 4 years, $60M.
3. Sign DE Marcus Davenport. Davenport's market could go numerous directions, but I think there's a decent chance he could take a one-year deal coming off of a disastrous platform year. If he signs for something like $12M on a one-year pact, it better be with the Bears. If he commands $100M over five years, well, that's the cost of doing business. The Bears need a huge infusion of talent up front and Davenport is the only DE with a top-level ceiling. If Davenport doesn't sign, then sign a second-tier DE; could be a young guy like Arden Key, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Samson Ebukam, or Charles Omenihu, or an older option like Trey Flowers, Justin Houston, or Melvin Ingram. I'm partial here to Okoronkwo and Omenihu as my hope is that the Bears find their top DE starter in the draft.
4. Sign a one technique DT like Dalvin Tomlinson or A'Shawn Robinson (and then cut Justin Jones). Jones is a 3 tech, but I can see the Bears holding onto him until he's been replaced. Well, now he's been replaced, ideally with Tomlinson for something like $27M over three years. If it's Robinson, a bit less.
5. Sign a LG to a modest deal; consider Nate Davis and Ben Powers. Spending big here on Isaac Seumalo would be lovely, but I think that the Bears will allocate their bigger dollars above. This could get complicated quickly if the guard market takes off, pushing the Bears toward the numerous quality centers in free agency. If Davis can be had for something like $24M over three years, great. If Davis doesn't work, pivot to Ethan Pocic, Garrett Bradbury, Connor McGovern, or Bradley Bozeman on a deal paying $30M over three years.
6. Sign an old LB to a short-term deal; looking at you, Bobby Wagner and Lavonte David. Both players are elite; both are also old. The Bears could use an infusion of skill and leadership alongside Jack Sanborn. If that comes in a productive package without long-term dollars, even better! Younger studs like Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards, or even a more modest acquisition like Bobby Okereke or Germaine Pratt, would also be great. But let's guess that David gets the gig on something like a two-year, $20M deal.
7. Sign a mediocre veteran TE to a short-term deal, like Austin Hooper or Hayden Hurst. These two are interchangeable in my mind. I'd love to see Mike Gesicki with the Bears and he's coming off of a dreadful year that should depress his market value, but Gesicki (i) can't block, and (ii) will still likely command too much money. Let's say it's Hooper for $14M over two years.

If the above comes together, here's the haul:

1. DT Hargrave: $20M AAV
2. RT McGlinchy: $15M AAV
3. DE Davenport: $12M AAV
4. DT Tomlinson: $9M AAV
5. LG Davis: $8M AAV
6. LB David: $10M AAV
7. TE Hooper: $7M AAV

Many of the above deals are designed to bridge the gap for the next two years while this year's and next year's draft classes round into form. They allocate $81M of cap for AAV purposes -- an allocation that will certainly be lower on the 2023 cap -- but the Bears should still have north of $100M of cap space once additional cuts are made anyway (Whitehair, Jones, Patrick, Santos, etc.), so there's plenty of space. So let's get to that draft!

As always, this is completed doing an actual mock draft with PFF's mock draft simulator. I remain heavily partial to the idea of accumulating a bevy of picks by first trading with Houston, then trading down again...but perhaps that's not the way things go and, instead, perhaps the most value is extracted by dealing with Indianapolis. So here goes.

Bears trade #1 to Indianapolis for #4, #35, #79, a 2024 1st, and a 2024 2nd

This seems to be the sweet spot for a deal with the Colts and all but guarantees that QBs go in the first two spots.

After QBs go 1-2, the Cardinals' pick yields the first inflection point of the draft: do they take DE Will Anderson, do they take DT Jalen Carter, or do they trade back to another squad looking for a QB? In this mock, they take Anderson, leaving the Bears to decide whether to take Carter or trade back again. I adore the extra picks, so it should be an easy choice for me. But it's not. Carter is such a good prospect, albeit one who failed to take over the game against Ohio State. There are three compelling options for me:

1. Draft Carter.
2. Trade #4 to Carolina for #9, #39, #93, and a 2024 3rd.
3. Trade #4 to Washington for #16, #47, and a 2024 1st.

Woof. Man, this one is tough. There's a chance that my favorite options after Carter -- DE Myles Murphy, DE Tyree Wilson, and DT Bryan Bresee -- are all gone by #16. But an extra 1st, especially from a floundering franchise, is such an attractive proposition, as is the bevy of picks from Carolina. At this point, my thinking is as follows: if Carter is there at #4, I think that the Bears should take him. If he's not? Trade back. I'm just to squeamish to avoid picking up the extra selections.

Bears trade #4 to Carolina for #9, #39, #93, and a 2024 3rd

#9: Bears select Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson

Despite numerous opportunities to trade down yet again, Wilson is a centerpiece acquisition.

Bears trade #35 and #103 to Detroit for #48 and #55

I want the Bears to get Schmitz or Wypler, yet #35 feels a little early for such a pick. Thus, akin to trading back for Whitehair half a decade ago, it seems that a center can be acquired a bit later.

Bears trade #39 to Atlanta for #44, #110, and #161

I nearly pulled the trigger on a number of DEs, but there were half a dozen quality options on the board. Atlanta wanted to come up for Stanford QB Tanner McKee and I was happy to oblige despite the mediocre value.

#44: Bears select Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz

This may be a hair early for Schmitz, but no matter. He's a centerpiece addition up front.

#48: Bears select Army DE Andre Carter II

There are still half a dozen quality DEs on the board at this point, but Carter has the ceiling to be a 1st rounder. He's too tempting to forego.

#54: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks

Brooks is a real favorite of mine and has the look of a top-tier 3 tech...just not right away, especially not after spending his college career at DE. He's going to need some time, but with Hargrave in place, Brooks has a development runway.

#55: Bears select LSU WR Kayshon Boutte

Boutte may be too risky for the Poles-Eberflus regime, but the talent is there. For a receiving corps in need of a jolt, Boutte would certainly qualify.

#64: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta

I was ready to take an OT here despite a lack of need, but then five came off the board between picks 56 and 64. So, change of plans. Thankfully, LaPorta made it to the 3rd round and yielded an easy choice.

#79: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton

Thus completes the defensive line overhaul. Man, that group looks so much better.

#93: Bears select Texas A&M RB Devon Achane

Achane is a wonderful complementary gadget piece. Plus speed and elite quickness. Can he tote the rock 20 times a game? Probably not, but he can impact games in a huge way.

#110: Bears select Texas LB DeMarvion Overshown

Overshown doesn't look like a star, but he does look like a plug-and-play 'backer who can run.

#134: Bears select Stanford WR Michael Wilson

Wilson is a mess of a prospect at this stage in his development, but he's got a plus ceiling. And given the receiver room that the Bears have in place, they can afford to wait for him to come along.

#137: Bears select Auburn RB Tank Bigsby

Bigsby can't possibly slip this far...right? There are a number of quality backs on the board at this point, but Bigsby is a tremendous complement to Achane.

#150: Bears select Tulane LB Dorian Williams

Williams could be a good fit in the 4th round, so this is really nice value for a player likely to make the roster and contribute early.

Bears trade #161 to New Orleans for #167 and #229

I probably shouldn't have traded back from #161, selecting Maryland CB Jakorian Bennett in that spot instead.

#167: Bears select Texas DT Moro Ojomo

I did make the trade above as I liked the idea of an extra 7th in the defensive backfield, so I slipped down and was delighted to find Ojomo still on the board. He may not ever be a regular, but there's enough athleticism to dream on here.

#220: Bears select Florida S Trey Dean III

A huge frame with special teams ability.

#229: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody

A big leg who is better than Cairo Santos.

QB: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian

RB: Khalil Herbert, Devon Achane, Tank Bigsby, Trestan Ebner

FB: Khari Blasingame

WR: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Kayshon Boutte, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown, Michael Wilson

TE: Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Sam LaPorta, ___________

OT: Braxton Jones, Mike McGlinchy, Alex Leatherwood, Larry Borom

G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis

C: John Michael Schmitz, Doug Kramer

DE: Marcus Davenport, Tyree Wilson, Andre Carter II, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson

DT: Javon Hargrave, Dalvin Tomlinson, Karl Brooks, Keeanu Benton, Moro Ojomo

LB: Jack Sanborn, Lavonte David, DeMarvion Overshown, Dorian Williams, Sterling Weatherford

CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, ____________

S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Trey Dean III

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

That roster yields 25 offensive players, 24 defensive players, and 3 special teamers, leaving one flex roster spot. The CB room remains a bit light, but every other position group except for QB gets a big talent boost. Most importantly, the lines on both sides of the ball get a blitz of new talent. I could see Gipson getting shipped out in a trade for a similarly-situated CB -- non-starter rotation player nearing the end of his rookie deal -- but if this was the roster come September 2023, there would be so much excitement in Bears country. It's a bit jarring to think that the roster could really absorb 15 draftees and 10 free agents (including veterman minimum resignings), but that's where we are.

Finally, the Bears would find themselves with extra picks in 2024 in the 1st (Indianapolis), 2nd (Indianapolis), and 3rd (Carolina) rounds in addition to their full slate of picks. Should they need to go big game hunting for a WR in 2024, the resources are there to make a move.