The 2014 Cubs have already proved to be a bit of an enigma. The club features a +4 run differential - better than the Padres, Dodgers, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Phillies, Mets, Rangers, Indians, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, and Yankees - yet they are just 17-28, the third worst mark in baseball. If standings were completed by run differential instead of win-loss record, the Cubs would be second place in the NL Central, AL Central, and AL East.
This should be a cause for optimism. Russell Carleton over at Baseball Prospectus expertly explained that run differential at this point in the season is a better predictor of future record than current record itself (subscription required). There are a trio of ways to achieve an average run differential: excellent prevention/poor scoring, excellent scoring/poor prevention, or roughly average of both.
The Cubs have accomplished their run differential with excellent run prevention. The team's FIP ranks 4th in all of baseball at 3.36 with their starting pitching the best in all of baseball at 3.18; the bullpen's FIP of 3.73 is 16th. Their team defense rating of 12.4 runs above average (at Fangraphs) comes in at 9th in baseball. Superb starting pitching combined with average relief work and above-average defense yields strong run prevention results as the team has allowed the 8th fewest runs in baseball.
The offense is a different story as the team's wRC+ of 81 (normalized with 100 as average) ranks 29th in baseball, ahead of only the feckless Padres. They rank 25th in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage (.301), and 21st in isolated power (.133). The club embarrassingly leads the majors in strikeout rate at 23.5% of all plate appearances. Through just 45 games, they have scored 35.6 fewer runs than an average offense. There's work to be done.
In a moment of sadness, I looked forward again to the 2015 club. For years, this has been the year in which the team is first expected to truly compete and make noise. With that in mind, here is a position-by-position look at next year's club. See if you can contain your excitement.
*Estimated salaries are italicized; guaranteed salaries are in standard print
Catcher
Incumbent Starter: Welington Castillo
Projected 2015 Starter: Welington Castillo
Projected 2015 Expense: $2.9M (Arbitration 1)
Analysis: Castillo is a solid, unspectacular contributor who brings value with his defense and bat. His on-base percentage has lagged behind due to only a decent walk rate and subpar batting averages. But there's enough power in his bat to be an average bat at the position, and his half splits suggest that he has the ability for even more: for his career, he's a .248/.304/.363 hitter in the first half compared to .285/.369/.468 in the second half. May is traditionally his worst month and this year is no exception. Regardless, Castillo remains a valuable asset for the near future provided that he can hit in the 8th or 7th spot of the lineup.
Reserve Catcher
Incumbent: John Baker
Projected 2015 Reserve: Anonymous replacement-level free agent (possibly Baker again)
Projected 2015 Expense: $1M or less
Analysis: When I projected the 40-man roster for 2015, I got to 36 players, yet Castillo was the only catcher. There is no organizational depth here although both Rafael Lopez and minor league Rule 5 pick Charles Cutler are playing well at AA. Still, I don't expect catcher to be addressed, especially not with Castillo still in his prime.
First Baseman
Incumbent Starter: Anthony Rizzo
Projected 2015 Starter: Anthony Rizzo
Projected 2015 Expense: $5M
Analysis: Rizzo is blossoming into the star that the front office hoped he would become. While his power seems to come and go at this point in his career, he is nonetheless hitting for adequate power (.188 ISO) and his 17.5% BB% is 5th in MLB. He looks like a fixture in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th spots of the lineup with a remote chance to be an unconventional #2 hitter a la Joey Votto. Regardless, Rizzo looks like a pre-prime star.
Second Baseman
Incumbent Starter: Luis Valbuena
Projected 2015 Starter: Javier Baez
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.510M
Analysis: Valbuena is a tricky player, one with plenty of glove for 2B and 3B and with enough bat to justify an every day job. He's also hardly a star and he has the organization's best prospects nipping at his heels. During the offseason, I thought Valbuena stood a good chance of finding himself with the Yankees or some other contender during 2014 and I think that possibility remains true. He has never shown the ability to regularly produce strong batting average, so it's hard to buy into his current .342 BABIP given his .266 career BABIP. He's plenty valuable; that value just makes more sense for another team.
As for the Cubs, they genuinely have three solid options for 2B in 2015: Valbuena, Baez, or Arismendy Alcantara. I think Alcantara will get a crack at an every day job, just not at 2B (see more below). That leaves Baez to man second, and he should have plenty of defensive chops for the spot, even coming off a bit overqualified given his strong arm. Nonetheless, the reemerging top prospect is back to torturing minor league pitchers, and he should be in line for a regular job by either mid-April or early-June 2015, depending on whether the Cubs just want the seventh year of team control or if they also want to avoid the Super Two cutoff. Whenever he arrives, Baez will do so as a 3rd, 4th, or 5th hole masher.
Third Baseman
Incumbent Starter: Mike Olt
Projected 2015 Starter: Kris Bryant
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.510M
Analysis: Olt should still get a shot to play each day, but I think that opportunity will come in an outfield corner where his big arm can play. He's currently a better defender than Bryant, though Bryant has the best infield arm in the system that I've seen. Bryant is the future and he's going to get his chance to man 3B at the top level. Bryant has yet to be truly challenged in the minors despite sizable strikeout rates at every level; when I have seen him, he makes such hard contact when he puts the ball in play that it makes a high-.300s BABIP believable. The man is going to be a 3rd, 4th, or 5th hitting beast in the very near future.
Shortstop
Incumbent Starter: Starlin Castro
Projected 2015 Starter: Starlin Castro
Projected 2015 Expense: $6M
Analysis: Although currently mired in an 0-for-14 slump, Castro is still proving that 2013 was just a bad dream. He makes his living lining balls to right and right-center while whipping his bat around to put offspeed pitches down the left-field line. Castro isn't likely destined for stardom as he still rarely walks and his power looks good, not great, but he's an extremely valuable asset as a good-fielding shortstop who can still push for .300 batting averages. Expect to see him batting 2nd or 6th by this time next year, his ideal lineup spots.
Reserve Infielders
Incumbents: Darwin Barney, Emilio Bonifacio (sort of)
Projected 2015 Reserves: Logan Watkins, Josh Vitters
Projected 2015 Expense: $1.02M
Analysis: These reserve spots will more likely be filled by outsiders, but given that Watkins appears ready for a utility reserve spot, he makes sense. Vitters is trickier; he'd make the team only if his bat returns to form as a righty bench bat. The rest of the roster is full of infielders who can cover 2B (Baez, Alcantara), SS (Castro, Baez), and 3B (Bryant, Baez, Olt), so a pure bat could very well make the roster.
Leftfielder
Incumbent Starter: Junior Lake
Projected 2015 Starter: Mike Olt
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: Although I think Olt will get bumped from his 3B job, I think he's still going to get a chance to play and LF should be his best bet. After a truly dreadful April, Olt has rebounded with a strong May thus far (.200/.300/.520) on the strength of his powerful bat; he has also proved surprisingly adept at cashing in runs via the sacrifice fly, a welcome development given his very high strikeout rate. It remains to be seen if he will be a long-term piece, but for now it's worth getting his bat in the lineup to find out.
Centerfielder
Incumbent Starter: Emilio Bonifacio
Projected 2015 Starter: Arismendy Alcantara
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: And here he is. Alcantara came up as a shortstop, forced to 2B with Javier Baez behind him and Starlin Castro in front. Nonetheless, his skill set is well-suited for centerfield given his plus-plus speed and an adequate arm (some scouts like his arm, but I haven't been terribly impressed with it). Alcantara continues to hit for big power with stolen bases and a strong batting average, although the 22-year-old switch-hitter has struggled to draw walks at AAA. His game certainly isn't as pretty as some of the other names on this list, but he has a chance to bat 1st, 2nd, or 7th in a great lineup if his maturation continues.
Rightfielder
Incumbent Starter: Nate Schierholtz
Projected 2015 Starter: Junior Lake
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: The Cubs are wasting developmental time with Lake in LF; he is ideally suited for CF given a big arm and good speed, but he would also play better in RF where nobody is blocking him. Like Olt, Lake has rebounded from a poor April but his improvement has been far more pronounced: after stumbling through a .221/.254/.382 opening month, Lake has exploded for a .344/.354/.574 May. He brings value on the basepaths already and he figures to do so in the field given his athletic skills; if some of his offensive growth proves sustainable, we're looking at a really nice piece. Lake should hit 6th or 7th next year with an outside shot at hitting 5th if the power continues to show up in games. It's unlikely to ever look like a masterpiece with Lake, but his high-variance, high-energy approach does have considerable skills backing it up.
Reserve Outfielders
Incumbents: Justin Ruggiano, Ryan Sweeney, Ryan Kalish
Projected 2015 Reserves: Ruggiano, Sweeney
Projected 2015 Expense: $3.0M (Ruggiano - Arbitration 2), $1.5M (Sweeney)
Analysis: Remarkably, Ruggiano and Sweeney project as the fourth and fifth most expensive position players on the roster. Ruggiano profiles as a nice bench bat who can be a short-side platoon starter while Sweeney fulfills the defensive replacement role. It also wouldn't be stunning to see the club designate Ruggiano for assignment this offseason, figuring that he doesn't project to start and his role can be filled for 20% of the cost.
A Brief Recap of the Offense
While the 2014 offense has been putrid thus far, the group looks to get massive boosts throughout the lineup by this time next year highlighted by two of baseball's premier offensive prospects joining the fray. Though highly unlikely to be the lineup on Opening Day 2015, the June 1st lineup could very well be:
1. CF Alcantara
2. SS Castro
3. 1B Rizzo
4. 3B Bryant
5. 2B Baez
6. RF Lake
7. LF Olt
8. C Castillo
Now, this group is not without its flaws and it is entirely possible that any number of these names could flame out. But how much more exciting is it to watch a lineup comprised of those players than the Nate Schierholtzes and David DeJesuses of the baseball world? All of those players have impact tools: hit (Castro, Bryant, Baez), power (Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Lake, Olt), speed (Alcantara), and defense (Castillo). We keep hearing about the core of the next great Cubs team. That's it, even with top prospects like Jorge Soler and Albert Almora not yet a part of the action. The above roster is extremely cheap with the catchers ($3.9M), infielders ($14.04M), and outfielders ($6.03M) costing a grand total of $23.97M. Incredible.
Starting Pitcher #1
Incumbent Starter: Jeff Samardzija
Projected 2015 Starter: Jeff Samardzija
Projected 2015 Expense: $10M (Arbitration 3)
Analysis: Well, Shark turned into an ace. The club's decision with Samardzija will be among the biggest choices the team has to make on any player during this massive, drawn-out rebuilding process. Given that lineup above, the Cubs offense should be able to be a league-average group as early as the second half of 2015 with the sky as the limit thereafter. If that's true, at least some pitching needs to be in Chicago by 2015. Samardzija is controllable through 2015, but the Cubs rightly recognize that a decision should be made on the ace in the next two months. If he's going to be the ace of the team, the Homer Bailey extension (6 years, $105M guaranteed) is likely a floor. I think a 6 year, $115M offer would likely get Samardzija's signature and such a deal could be structured as follows:
Signing Bonus: $12M
Y1 (replacing Arbitration 3): $15M
Y2: $19M
Y3: $18M
Y4: $17M
Y5: $16M
Y6: $15M
Y7: $22M club option with $3M buyout
That structure may seem bizarre, but the deal is structured as such to enable the Cubs to meet their financing obligations in the later portion of his contract when the Castro and Rizzo extensions get pricier and the current wave of prospects are moving into the arbitration system. This year's payroll can certainly absorb the huge signing bonus given the earmarked funds for Masahiro Tanaka, and Samardzija would have an enormous incentive to sign the contract given such a substantial upfront bonus; he'd be in line to make an extra $17M over 2014-15 by signing this extension.
Starting Pitcher #2
Incumbent Starter: Jason Hammel
Projected 2015 Starter: From most likely to least likely: James Shields, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, or Ervin Santana
Projected 2015 Expense: $23M
Analysis: Hammel has been excellent thus far with his 3.22 FIP placing him 37th in baseball directly behind Rick Porcello, Justin Verlander, and David Price. However, his .222 BABIP is bound to come up such that, even if he maintains his excellent 1.99 BB/9, he's settling in as a mid-rotation arm.
The Cubs are well-positioned to fill their offensive needs internally and, as noted above, their rotation has been among baseball's best. Unfortunately, their top-tier pitching prospects are a few years away (Paul Blackburn, Jen-Ho Tseng, possibly the #4 pick in next month's draft), struggling with the injury bug (C.J. Edwards (I think he's a reliever), Pierce Johnson, Ivan Pineyro), or lack a top-of-the-rotation ceiling (Kyle Hendricks). That's where money comes in. The Cubs certainly have some, although it's unclear just how much. Regardless, if they had $40M to spend this year on Tanaka ($20M posting fee + $20M salary), I'm confident that they can afford one of the top tier guys in next year's class.
Shields should be the easiest to sign given that, at 33 in December, he can likely be signed to something like a 4 year, $80M deal. He's risky given his age, but older players are nearly the new market inefficiency.
Scherzer appears likely to jump for a huge payday given his reportedly turning down a 6 year, $144M offer from Detroit, and if the Cubs are willing to shell out the cash, he could probably be had for something like 7 years, $175M. Scherzer is a flyball pitcher, but his huge strikeout rate, good command, and strong track record make him extremely appealing.
Lester is peaking in his age-30 season, but this front office was with him for much of his career, so there could be something there. Given that he has earned "just" $44.5M so far in his career and he will turn 31 this winter, Lester likely knows that this is his only shot at a huge deal. I think he'll ultimately get something like 6 years, $140M. I'd be on board with the Cubs giving him that cash, but I'll surprised if he actually leaves Boston.
Masterson finds himself in the unenviable position of tanking in his contract year as command woes and some bad lucky have led to poor results. He also lacks the track record of the three listed above. I think he'll either look for a one year "prove it" deal or look for something in the 6 year, $90M range. Masterson is in a tough spot as he will turn 30 before next season begins and his platform year has been a disaster thus far. He is obviously much less attractive than the three names listed above him.
Finally, Santana has pitched splendidly this year although his career averages suggest that he is pitching a bit over his head right now. He's not a #2 starter for a contender unless such time has three #3s right behind him in an untraditional rotation format.
My solid preference is for Scherzer with Lester just a bit behind him. After that, it's basically Shields or bust as it is tough to justify big bucks on Masterson or Santana at this point.
Starting Pitcher #3
Incumbent Starter: Travis Wood
Projected 2015 Starter: Travis Wood
Projected 2015 Expense: $5.75M (Arbitration 2)
Analysis: Wood has won me over. I thought his 2013 was largely a mirage thanks to underwhelming rate stats, but he has been even better thus far in 2014 with a huge jump in BABIP and drop in his strand rate to blame for less impressive results in spite of a major uptick in strikeout rate. Wood is proving to be a reliable workhorse who challenges us to consider what comprises valuable "stuff" as his movement and ability to command his arsenal makes him far better than his velocity ever could.
Wood may also be looking at an extension. He will be 28 next year with the Cubs controlling his services through 2016; perhaps a 4 year, $40M deal would work for both sides, covering his last two arbitration years and two free agent years while allowing him to hit free agency at age-32 with nearly $50M in his back pocket.
Starting Pitcher #4
Incumbent Starter: Edwin Jackson
Projected 2015 Starter: Jake Arrieta
Projected 2015 Expense: $1.8M (Arbitration 1)
Analysis: Arrieta narrowly missed being a Super Two yet his years of injuries and struggles should keep his arbitration wages down. Still, it's possible that his starting arbitration salary could be notably higher than this. Regardless, he has the arrows in his quiver to be a very good starter and, at 28, the time is now. The early returns have been promising in 2014 despite his being slowed by injury and continuing to struggle with the free pass. The Cubs don't need him to be a star, but if he can be productive in the Edwin Jackson mold of starters with better stuff than results but solid results nonetheless, that's still plenty useful.
Starting Pitcher #5
Incumbent Starter(s): Jake Arrieta
Projected 2015 Starter: Edwin Jackson
Projected 2015 Expense: $11M
Analysis: Currently slated to be the highest paid Cub in 2015, Edwin has pulled a Starlin and put 2013 in his rearview mirror. As of today, his 3.01 FIP ranks 21st in baseball among qualified starting pitchers. He has the look of a true asset, a starter who throws tons of innings with plenty of strikeouts and a manageable amount of walks. Edwin is a good #4; he's a tremendous #5.
Closer
Incumbent Starter: Hector Rondon
Projected 2015 Starter: Hector Rondon
Projected 2015 Expense: $0.51M
Analysis: As I wrote to my brother last week, every great team has a couple of guys with whom they got very lucky. For the Cubs, that player appears to be Rondon. A former top prospect in the Cleveland system, Rondon suffered back-to-back elbow injuries that enabled him to find his way to the Cubs via the Rule 5 draft. He has proved to be a monumental steal. Rondon's 1.86 FIP ranks 14th among qualified relievers and he has achieved that success with a massive fastball complemented by a slider and cutter. His 94.8 mph average fastball ranks 18th among relievers. He has the look of a keeper.
Relief Pitchers
Incumbent Starter(s): Carlos Villanueva, Neil Ramirez, Brian Schlitter, Justin Grimm, Pedro Strop, James Russell, Jose Veras, Zac Rosscup, Wesley Wright
Projected 2015 Starter(s): Neil Ramirez, Justin Grimm, Wesley Wright, Zac Rosscup, Brian Schlitter, Arodys Vizcaino, Pedro Strop
Projected 2015 Expense: $6.25M Total: $1.9M (Strop - Arbitration 2 as Super Two), $1.8M (Wright - Arbitration 3), $0.51M (Ramirez), $0.51M (Grimm), $0.51M (Rosscup), $0.51M (Schlitter), $0.51M (Vizcaino)
Analysis: Armando Rivero could also get in on the action. This group is the incarnated version of a plan. Strop, Vizcaino, Ramirez, Grimm, and Rosscup were all acquired via trade and Rivero came in as an amateur free agent from Cuba. Grimm has struggled with his command but shows big strikeout stuff. Ramirez has been superb. Rosscup was strong before suffering an injury while Strop struggled significantly with his command too.
Veras will not be missed and, unfortunately, the overwork of the past two years appears to have caught up with Russell. Regardless, there are plenty of quality bullpen options here, many of whom are a part of 2014's solid group.
A Brief Recap of the Pitching
After spending just $23.97M on the position players, there's a lot of cash left for the pitching. Given the number of relief options, the club should be able to put together an above-average bullpen for just the $6.76M proposed above. Leaving only the five starters, this proposal would cover 21 spots (I'm not deciding between an eighth reliever and a fifth bench player - I'm just going with 26 guys, so sue me) for just $30.73M. Holy Freezerburn Batman!
Of course, I've taken that space and spent big...kind of. I think rolling with Wood-Arrieta-Edwin as the 3-4-5 is plenty reasonable, especially with Kyle Hendricks ready as the sixth starter/possible long man. $51.55M for a starting rotation is hardly crazy; this does presume Samardzija's third arbitration year instead of his first year in a new extension and the above-listed $23M proposal for Scherzer/Lester/Shields. The rotation of Samardzija-Scherzer-Wood-Arrieta-Jackson would be superb, probably just a notch below the fantastic rotation in Detroit this year. With great young arms in the bullpen and a barrage of pitching a year or two away to push Wood, Arrieta, and Jackson, one big acquisition makes tons of sense, even if it costs a lot of cash.
What Does It All Mean?
The excitement that is already present when watching Cubs games this year is about to increase exponentially. The pitching has already turned in a strong performance in 2014, and while the young relievers figure to struggle some as the season wears on, they should also face enough internal competition to enable the franchise to determine which ones are keepers. With so many arms pushing up internally, the bullpen should be a true strength for years to come.
There is a bizarre misconception that the Cubs desperately need pitching. It's true that they lack a big-time pitching prospect that projects as a top-of-the-rotation arm; I won't argue that they do. I will argue that they already have (1) an ace (Samardzija), (2) a solid mid-rotation arm (Wood), (3) a great back-of-the-rotation arm (Edwin), and (4) a possible mid-rotation guy whose floor is as a back-of-the-rotation arm (Arrieta). They need another top-of-the-rotation arm and with it, they've got a rotation built for the long haul and a short series where Samardzija and Scherzer/Lester/Shields would both throw twice with the other game handled by the hottest guy among the remaining trio. That's excellent pitching.
The depressing 2014 offense is going to look substantially different in 2015 not just because there will be new faces but because the new faces project to hit 1st, 4th, and 5th, three of the most important lineup spots. While some of those guys won't last, the late-May/early-June 2015 lineup will be extremely exciting and will enable the club to field an offense with the upside to complement potentially excellent pitching.
It's hard to believe just how plausible everything I just wrote truly is, but what makes it just as incredible is that, for the 26 players listed above, the total cost is as follows:
Position Players (13): $23.97M
Starting Pitchers (5): $51.55M
Relief Pitchers (8): $6.76M
TOTAL: $82.28M
$82.28M. The last time the Cubs had an Opening Day payroll that low? 2003. I'd certainly go for a repeat of 2003. Team revenue was approximately $156M in 2003; it has been at least $266M since 2011. If the Cubs can't handle an $82.28M payroll (yes, it will escalate a bit each year thereafter, but so should the club's revenue), well, let's just assume that they can.
Friday, May 23, 2014
Monday, May 12, 2014
A Quick Review of the Chicago Bears 2014 Draft
I love it.
Phil Emery obviously had a lot of holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball along with some offensive needs. He certainly could have filled all of them with 15 first-round choices, but given the standard seven selections with two sixth-rounders and no seventh-rounders, he did a tremendous job of continuing to revamp the areas of the club's roster most in need of a talent infusion. He also made smart picks late that should help the team now in filling roster spots with the chance to grow into more in the future. Let's take a quick look at the rationale for each player. Grades will range from the absurd F- (Cedric Benson) to the perfect A+ (Peanut Tillman); C represents a genuinely average selection (Stephen Paea) and there are no "E" grades such that the scale is A-B-C-D-F.
CB Kyle Fuller
Pick: Round 1, #14 overall
Height/Weight: 6'0", 190 lbs.
College: Virginia Tech
Analysis: Fuller is a perfect addition to this roster, a player who can play 60-70% of the team's snaps this year while providing a desperately needed infusion of young talent in the secondary. While many clamored for a safety in the first round, to me, Fuller was the best defensive back on the board. I saw him as the proper balance of physical and football skills, trumpeting his fit with our roster in a series of emails leading up to the draft. Perhaps Justin Gilbert's speed will translate into success at the top level or HaHa Clinton-Dix will be able to play a masterful center field. No matter. Given the information at hand, Fuller was a perfect addition as an NFL-ready corner with plus coverage and run-support skills.
Grade: A
DT Ego Ferguson
Pick: Round 2, #51 overall
Height/Weight: 6'3", 315 lbs.
College: LSU
Analysis: Ferguson is the first guy that brings up a key point with the draft: as a fan, I have access to 1/100th of the information that Phil Emery does. As such, I can feel like certain prospects would be a better fit for the team, but without knowing the prospects themselves, I really can't complain with individual picks. However, I do have 99/100ths of the information that Emery does when it comes to the 53-man roster and the team's salary cap situation. As such, I knew that at least one defensive tackle absolutely needed to be added to the roster and that a run-stuffer made plenty of sense. Ferguson fits the bill and likely would not have made it to the Bears in the third round (although, of course, he may have). I can't fault them for the particular player they drafted and I like a DT in the second round. Emery played this draft well, knowing that impact corners were limited to the top four while a handful of DTs would fall to the second and third rounds. The draft fell into his lap.
Having said that, I didn't love the film on Ferguson. He doesn't project to offer much, if any, pass rushing value, so he'll need to develop into a monster run-stuffer to justify the pick. It might happen, it might not. Regardless, it's hard not to respect a man who turns pro to help out his mom after she suffered a workplace injury that made cash tight for her; it speaks well of his character.
Grade: C+
DT Will Sutton
Pick: Round 3, #82 overall
Height/Weight: 6'0", 290 lbs.
College: Arizona State
Analysis: Sutton is a case study in scouting and projection. After absolutely manhandling the Pac-12 at 285 lbs. in 2012 (watch his strong Oregon State game here, especially his punishing strip sack early in the game), he got some bad advice and ballooned to 320 lbs. last year. The results weren't pretty. I watched his game tape against Stanford and Wisconsin; it was really, really ugly. Sutton had no burst and was easily removed from every play. As of draft day, he was back down to 290 and he figures to rotate with contract-year man Paea at the three-technique position. Sutton is a flawed prospect to be sure, but he represents potentially massive value thanks to his shrinking physique.
This was a superb pick by Emery, in part because the GM acknowledged the roster in assessing that the team could absorb two defensive tackles guaranteed to make the team; only Paea and Jeremiah Ratliff were safe bets to make the roster before the draft, and Ratliff should not be counted on as any every-down player. Both Nate Collins and Israel Idonije provide solid depth, but neither project as valuable starters. Both Ferguson and especially Sutton should be rotation players in Week One with the chance to grow into a useful tandem.
Grade: B
RB Ka'Deem Carey
Pick: Round 4, #117 overall
Height/Weight: 5'9", 207 lbs.
College: Arizona
Analysis: Any Bears fan knew that it was time to address the backup running back position. While Marion Barber and Michael Bush had their flashes, neither ever truly impressed with Barber torpedoed by the Tebow game and Bush done in by an eroding body. Carey represents a commitment to the reserve position in the form of a plus runner who will protect Matt Forte as a worse version of Forte himself, not as a complementary back. Carey isn't an exciting prospect to me, but he's better than the options drafted after him, and the backup RB spot was one of the truly glaring holes on the roster. I expected either tight end or running back to be the first offensive position selection, and I believe that Emery would have had a difficult decision on his hands had Washington's Austin Seferian-Jenkins slipped to #51. But when he came off the board early in the second round, there were no remaining dynamic athletes at the position, rendering RB the obvious choice. Carey is a good one, even if he doesn't offer the type of impact athleticism that suggests a future role as a feature back.
Grade: C-
S Brock Vereen
Pick: Round 4, #131 overall
Height/Weight: 6'0", 199 lbs.
College: Minnesota
Analysis: Unlike some, I am not opposed to trading up in the draft; sometimes, the best value comes from moving up even just a few spots. For example, in Emery's first draft as Bears GM in 2012 - in an otherwise dreadful draft for the rookie GM - Emery used #50 and #150 overall to move up just five spots to #45 where he selected Pro Bowl WR Alshon Jeffery. Sometimes the move you do make is the best one.
Unfortunately, while I had a year-long YouTube affair with Alshon before that draft, my limited exposure to Vereen has been quite poor. He doesn't appear to offer much help in run support. He is sufficiently athletic to morph into a starter at some point in time, but his play will need to improve multiple levels in order for this to happen. More alarmingly, his ball skills appear poor, he has a very hard time getting off blocks regardless of who is doing the blocking, and in three games of tape I saw precisely zero impact hits despite a few missed tackles. The front office likely enjoyed that Vereen played a lot of man-to-man coverage in college.
To me, Vereen is a fringe NFL-caliber athlete who doesn't look like he'll ever be good enough to start. To make matters worse, the Bears gave Denver next year's fifth-round-pick in order to move up 25 slots to select Vereen, obtaining the 246th pick this year as a small consolation prize. I like that Emery grabbed a safety he likes; I just don't like Vereen as a prospect with the cost of trading up placing this firmly in the miss pile.
Grade: F+
QB David Fales
Pick: Round 6, #183 overall
Height/Weight: 6'2", 212 lbs.
College: San Jose State
Analysis: Much has been made of Emery's study finding that no late-round quarterback drafted since 2005 has been developed into a full-time starter. That remains true. I don't think anyone in any front office expects Fales to develop into a regular starter. That says almost nothing about this pick. Fales should push Jordan Palmer for the #2 job this year and have the ability to stick as an in-house #2 option. Fales throws for good accuracy, but his arm strength is somewhere in between Juan Pierre and Craig Krenzel. Still, it's nice to find a sixth-rounder who is very likely to make the roster.
Grade: B-
P Pat O'Donnell
Pick: Round 6, #191 overall
Height/Weight: 6'4", 220 lbs.
College: Miami (FL)
Analysis: Many folks despise using a draft pick on a specialist, and I myself suggested that it wasn't worth it just 40 hours before the draft started. With that in mind, I can't give this pick a tremendous grade.
But I can love Pat O'Donnell. He is a near-lock to make the team and O'Donnell is a tremendous athlete who ran a 4.53 40 at the Combine. That's not a misprint. His highlight video shows him making some fantastic tackles. Obviously that's not why he was drafted, but it does convey even a bit more of the organizational focus on finding athletes. Anyway, O'Donnell has a huge leg and the team desperately needed a punter. They have traditionally focused on specialists and hopefully this can make a weakness into a position of strength. More on O'Donnell in a bit.
Grade: C
OT Charles Leno Jr.
Pick: Round 7, #246 overall
Height/Weight: 6'4", 303 lbs.
College: Boise State
Analysis: Offensive tackle was the one remaining spot on the roster where a rookie stands a reasonable chance of making the team. As such, why not take a flier on a late-round guy?
Leno appears to have strong agility for a man his size but I'm not convinced about his strength. He does look like he might be a better fit a guard, but it's too early to make such a decision on him. For now, suffice it to say that Leno will have a chance to make the team.
Grade: C
Closing Thoughts
As of today, this looks like an excellent draft from Emery. The only position of significant need that he did not address was tight end, and even that was a wise decision as this draft simply did not feature enough draftable tight ends. Of the eight draftees, the first seven all stand excellent odds of making the team. That's efficient use of the picks, especially considering that each pick was drafted in an appropriate spot.
To me, Emery managed a nice balance of acquiring talent to help the 2014 team while also adding pieces who have plenty of projection to grow into real contributors. Overall, I'd give him a B+ for a very strong draft.
Phil Emery obviously had a lot of holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball along with some offensive needs. He certainly could have filled all of them with 15 first-round choices, but given the standard seven selections with two sixth-rounders and no seventh-rounders, he did a tremendous job of continuing to revamp the areas of the club's roster most in need of a talent infusion. He also made smart picks late that should help the team now in filling roster spots with the chance to grow into more in the future. Let's take a quick look at the rationale for each player. Grades will range from the absurd F- (Cedric Benson) to the perfect A+ (Peanut Tillman); C represents a genuinely average selection (Stephen Paea) and there are no "E" grades such that the scale is A-B-C-D-F.
CB Kyle Fuller
Pick: Round 1, #14 overall
Height/Weight: 6'0", 190 lbs.
College: Virginia Tech
Analysis: Fuller is a perfect addition to this roster, a player who can play 60-70% of the team's snaps this year while providing a desperately needed infusion of young talent in the secondary. While many clamored for a safety in the first round, to me, Fuller was the best defensive back on the board. I saw him as the proper balance of physical and football skills, trumpeting his fit with our roster in a series of emails leading up to the draft. Perhaps Justin Gilbert's speed will translate into success at the top level or HaHa Clinton-Dix will be able to play a masterful center field. No matter. Given the information at hand, Fuller was a perfect addition as an NFL-ready corner with plus coverage and run-support skills.
Grade: A
DT Ego Ferguson
Pick: Round 2, #51 overall
Height/Weight: 6'3", 315 lbs.
College: LSU
Analysis: Ferguson is the first guy that brings up a key point with the draft: as a fan, I have access to 1/100th of the information that Phil Emery does. As such, I can feel like certain prospects would be a better fit for the team, but without knowing the prospects themselves, I really can't complain with individual picks. However, I do have 99/100ths of the information that Emery does when it comes to the 53-man roster and the team's salary cap situation. As such, I knew that at least one defensive tackle absolutely needed to be added to the roster and that a run-stuffer made plenty of sense. Ferguson fits the bill and likely would not have made it to the Bears in the third round (although, of course, he may have). I can't fault them for the particular player they drafted and I like a DT in the second round. Emery played this draft well, knowing that impact corners were limited to the top four while a handful of DTs would fall to the second and third rounds. The draft fell into his lap.
Having said that, I didn't love the film on Ferguson. He doesn't project to offer much, if any, pass rushing value, so he'll need to develop into a monster run-stuffer to justify the pick. It might happen, it might not. Regardless, it's hard not to respect a man who turns pro to help out his mom after she suffered a workplace injury that made cash tight for her; it speaks well of his character.
Grade: C+
DT Will Sutton
Pick: Round 3, #82 overall
Height/Weight: 6'0", 290 lbs.
College: Arizona State
Analysis: Sutton is a case study in scouting and projection. After absolutely manhandling the Pac-12 at 285 lbs. in 2012 (watch his strong Oregon State game here, especially his punishing strip sack early in the game), he got some bad advice and ballooned to 320 lbs. last year. The results weren't pretty. I watched his game tape against Stanford and Wisconsin; it was really, really ugly. Sutton had no burst and was easily removed from every play. As of draft day, he was back down to 290 and he figures to rotate with contract-year man Paea at the three-technique position. Sutton is a flawed prospect to be sure, but he represents potentially massive value thanks to his shrinking physique.
This was a superb pick by Emery, in part because the GM acknowledged the roster in assessing that the team could absorb two defensive tackles guaranteed to make the team; only Paea and Jeremiah Ratliff were safe bets to make the roster before the draft, and Ratliff should not be counted on as any every-down player. Both Nate Collins and Israel Idonije provide solid depth, but neither project as valuable starters. Both Ferguson and especially Sutton should be rotation players in Week One with the chance to grow into a useful tandem.
Grade: B
RB Ka'Deem Carey
Pick: Round 4, #117 overall
Height/Weight: 5'9", 207 lbs.
College: Arizona
Analysis: Any Bears fan knew that it was time to address the backup running back position. While Marion Barber and Michael Bush had their flashes, neither ever truly impressed with Barber torpedoed by the Tebow game and Bush done in by an eroding body. Carey represents a commitment to the reserve position in the form of a plus runner who will protect Matt Forte as a worse version of Forte himself, not as a complementary back. Carey isn't an exciting prospect to me, but he's better than the options drafted after him, and the backup RB spot was one of the truly glaring holes on the roster. I expected either tight end or running back to be the first offensive position selection, and I believe that Emery would have had a difficult decision on his hands had Washington's Austin Seferian-Jenkins slipped to #51. But when he came off the board early in the second round, there were no remaining dynamic athletes at the position, rendering RB the obvious choice. Carey is a good one, even if he doesn't offer the type of impact athleticism that suggests a future role as a feature back.
Grade: C-
S Brock Vereen
Pick: Round 4, #131 overall
Height/Weight: 6'0", 199 lbs.
College: Minnesota
Analysis: Unlike some, I am not opposed to trading up in the draft; sometimes, the best value comes from moving up even just a few spots. For example, in Emery's first draft as Bears GM in 2012 - in an otherwise dreadful draft for the rookie GM - Emery used #50 and #150 overall to move up just five spots to #45 where he selected Pro Bowl WR Alshon Jeffery. Sometimes the move you do make is the best one.
Unfortunately, while I had a year-long YouTube affair with Alshon before that draft, my limited exposure to Vereen has been quite poor. He doesn't appear to offer much help in run support. He is sufficiently athletic to morph into a starter at some point in time, but his play will need to improve multiple levels in order for this to happen. More alarmingly, his ball skills appear poor, he has a very hard time getting off blocks regardless of who is doing the blocking, and in three games of tape I saw precisely zero impact hits despite a few missed tackles. The front office likely enjoyed that Vereen played a lot of man-to-man coverage in college.
To me, Vereen is a fringe NFL-caliber athlete who doesn't look like he'll ever be good enough to start. To make matters worse, the Bears gave Denver next year's fifth-round-pick in order to move up 25 slots to select Vereen, obtaining the 246th pick this year as a small consolation prize. I like that Emery grabbed a safety he likes; I just don't like Vereen as a prospect with the cost of trading up placing this firmly in the miss pile.
Grade: F+
QB David Fales
Pick: Round 6, #183 overall
Height/Weight: 6'2", 212 lbs.
College: San Jose State
Analysis: Much has been made of Emery's study finding that no late-round quarterback drafted since 2005 has been developed into a full-time starter. That remains true. I don't think anyone in any front office expects Fales to develop into a regular starter. That says almost nothing about this pick. Fales should push Jordan Palmer for the #2 job this year and have the ability to stick as an in-house #2 option. Fales throws for good accuracy, but his arm strength is somewhere in between Juan Pierre and Craig Krenzel. Still, it's nice to find a sixth-rounder who is very likely to make the roster.
Grade: B-
P Pat O'Donnell
Pick: Round 6, #191 overall
Height/Weight: 6'4", 220 lbs.
College: Miami (FL)
Analysis: Many folks despise using a draft pick on a specialist, and I myself suggested that it wasn't worth it just 40 hours before the draft started. With that in mind, I can't give this pick a tremendous grade.
But I can love Pat O'Donnell. He is a near-lock to make the team and O'Donnell is a tremendous athlete who ran a 4.53 40 at the Combine. That's not a misprint. His highlight video shows him making some fantastic tackles. Obviously that's not why he was drafted, but it does convey even a bit more of the organizational focus on finding athletes. Anyway, O'Donnell has a huge leg and the team desperately needed a punter. They have traditionally focused on specialists and hopefully this can make a weakness into a position of strength. More on O'Donnell in a bit.
Grade: C
OT Charles Leno Jr.
Pick: Round 7, #246 overall
Height/Weight: 6'4", 303 lbs.
College: Boise State
Analysis: Offensive tackle was the one remaining spot on the roster where a rookie stands a reasonable chance of making the team. As such, why not take a flier on a late-round guy?
Leno appears to have strong agility for a man his size but I'm not convinced about his strength. He does look like he might be a better fit a guard, but it's too early to make such a decision on him. For now, suffice it to say that Leno will have a chance to make the team.
Grade: C
Closing Thoughts
As of today, this looks like an excellent draft from Emery. The only position of significant need that he did not address was tight end, and even that was a wise decision as this draft simply did not feature enough draftable tight ends. Of the eight draftees, the first seven all stand excellent odds of making the team. That's efficient use of the picks, especially considering that each pick was drafted in an appropriate spot.
To me, Emery managed a nice balance of acquiring talent to help the 2014 team while also adding pieces who have plenty of projection to grow into real contributors. Overall, I'd give him a B+ for a very strong draft.
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
A Look at the 2014 NFL Draft for the Chicago Bears
For a number of years, I would do my own full NFL mock draft. We're talking 250+ picks. At some point in college, I realized that this was completely insane and an epic waste of time. Instead, I would read about prospects and imagine some of them becoming Bears. That was enough for me.
On the eve of the 2009 draft, I remember laying in bed one night, completely falling in love with an undersized receiver who ran impeccable routes, had tremendous quickness, excellent body control, and very strong hands. It's a shame that he wasn't a bit bigger: if Johnny Knox weighed even 20 lbs. more, perhaps his career wouldn't have ended two years ago. Regardless, I appreciate that such a stroke of luck - falling in love with a player before your team magically drafts him 140th overall - is unlikely to ever happen again, so what's the use in pressing destiny?
Instead, I like to take a look at the roster in advance of the draft, assessing which positions should be targeted for bodies. There's no sense in saying "the Bears must draft a defensive tackle in the first round!" The only player the Bears must draft in the first round if given the opportunity is Jadeveon Clowney. That's it. Otherwise, they must draft a good football player, wherever he plays. I'd like for them to do the same thing in each subsequent round.
With that in mind, here's a look at the players currently under contract with a look toward which positions could use some help late this week. The draft need will be on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 representing the need to add another quarterback behind Joe Montana and Steve Young and 10 showing the need to add a left tackle to replace Aaron Gibson.
Quarterback
Players on Roster: Jay Cutler, Jordan Palmer, Jerrod Johnson
Roster Analysis: The Bears would be wise to add another quarterback at some point this offseason, if only to add some competition for Palmer, but they hardly need to add a big-time player here.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville), Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M), Blake Bortles (Central Florida).
Draft Analysis: If one of these three falls to the Bears at #14, they should at least entertain the idea of drafting such a high caliber signal caller. I'm among the minority that will be surprised to see even one of this trio last to #14 with at least Houston, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota all desperately in need of a quarterback. How many of those GMs really want to get fired in the next two years if they run out Case Keenum or Brian Hoyer every game? Assuming they'd like to stay employed, someone will bite the bullet and draft a QB. After that trio, there's not much of a point in using a later-round pick on a quarterback. For every Tom Brady, there are 1,000 Nathan Enderles. There is much greater value available late in the draft at other positions.
Running Back
Players on Roster: Matt Forte, Michael Ford, Shaun Draughn, Tony Fiammetta (FB), Willie Carter (FB)
Roster Analysis: If there's one thing we've learned over the past few years, it is that NFL running backs come in all shapes and sizes and productive backs can be found as undrafted free agents nearly as well as top picks. Forte and Fiammetta will both make the roster while Draughn and Carter will not; Ford should return, but the question will be whether he comes back as the second or third back. I think the Bears will add someone, although that someone could very well be an undrafted free agent just like Ford.
Draft Need: 5
Potential Draft Targets: Rounds 3-4: Bishop Sankey (Washington), Jeremy Hill (LSU), Tre Mason (Auburn). Rounds 5-6: Charles Sims (West Virginia), Marion Grice (Arizona State)
Draft Analysis: These are all value picks as each players should be drafted a round or two higher. Hill, Sims, and Grice are in the same mold as Matt Forte: big, powerful runners who could be every-down backs. Sankey and Mason are more traditional change of pace backs who could contribute more right away. The only wrong place to draft a running back is in the first round.
Tight End
Players on Roster: Martellus Bennett, Dante Rosario, Zach Miller, Fendi Onobun, Matthew Mulligan
Roster Analysis: The Black Unicorn was a star last year. Rosario was useful enough, but he's hardly a special second tight end. The other three are all unlikely to make the final roster, though Onobun will undoubtedly make noise this offseason as he tends to do.
Draft Need: 8
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Eric Ebron (North Carolina). Round 2: Jace Amaro (Texas Tech), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Washington). Rounds 3 and later: Troy Niklas (Notre Dame), Xavier Grimble (USC), Joe Don Duncan (Dixie State).
Draft Analysis: I will be surprised if the Bears don't draft a tight end in the draft, but I will be surprised if they grab one in the first round that isn't Ebron. He is the one player in this group who has the athleticism and the production to justify such a pick. The Bears goal-line offense would be otherworldly with Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett, and Ebron. Any of the other names would be useful enough later on.
Wide Receiver
Players on Roster: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Marquess Wilson, Josh Morgan, Domenik Hixon, Eric Weems, Josh Bellamy, Chris Williams
Roster Analysis: Emery has done a nice job creating competition for Wilson at the #3 spot with Morgan and Hixon both featuring extensive NFL experience. Weems recently took a pay cut, something that should ensure that he returns as a core special teamer. Either one of Morgan or Hixon will get cut or the team will carry six receivers.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: Round 4 or later: Allen Robinson (Penn State), Martavis Bryant (Clemson), Jordan Matthews (Vanderbilt), Dri Archer (Kent State)
Draft Analysis: If one of that trio slips into the fourth round or later, the Bears should consider pouncing. Otherwise, stay away from the true receivers. Now, time for an exception: Archer. He's a scat-back in the mold of Darren Sproles, a blazingly fast undersized utility back. If Archer remains on the board in the fourth round or later, the Bears should go for it.
Offensive Tackle
Players on Roster: Jermon Bushrod, Jordan Mills, Eben Britton, James Brown, Joe Long, Rogers Gaines
Roster Analysis: Bushrod was excellent in 2013 and while Mills struggled at times, he was nonetheless a solidifying addition. There's reason to hope for some improvement there. Britton was a nice depth addition and played regularly as a sixth lineman; Brown has been around for a few years now.
Draft Need: 4
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Jake Matthews (Texas A&M), Taylor Lewan (Michigan). Rounds 3 or later: Morgan Moses (Virginia), Cyrus Kouandjio (Alabama), Seantrel Henderson (Miami).
Draft Analysis: Matthews would be tempting at #14; I have to mention Lewan because everybody else loves him, even though I'm not all that impressed. Moses is a massive prospect who generates conflicting reviews. Kouandjio and Henderson receive mention because they are former top prospects who showed flashes in college while also exhibiting significant red flags. The team that drafts Henderson will either obtain a massive value or release him within 15 months.
Interior Offensive Line
Players on Roster: Kyle Long (G), Matt Slauson (G), Roberto Garza (C), Brian de la Puente (C), Taylor Boggs (C)
Roster Analysis: The starting lineup inside looks very strong with Long an immediate hit, Slauson a revelation after coming over from the Jets, and Garza remaining steady as his career winds down. de la Puente was a huge get late in free agency given his years of starting experience with current Bears Offensive Coordinator Aaron Kromer.
Draft Need: 1
Potential Draft Targets: Rounds 4 or later: Brandon Thomas (Clemson), Trai Turner (LSU).
Draft Analysis: Drafting a center is completely unnecessary given the presence of Garza and de la Puente. de la Puente is probably the top interior reserve right now, and given the presence of a long snapper on the roster as well, bringing in another lineman who needs to make the roster seems foolish. If Thomas plummets after tearing his ACL this spring or Turner drops after entering the draft too soon, the Bears could scoop up one of the pair in the later rounds, effectively giving the prospect a redshirt year in 2014 before expecting some contribution in 2015. That likely requires an assumption that Long will bump outside in 2015. Grabbing an interior lineman just isn't a good use of scarce resources.
Defensive End
Players on Roster: Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Cornelius Washington, David Bass, Austen Lane, Tracy Robertson, Trevor Scott
Roster Analysis: How quickly things change. Allen, Houston, and Young should all receive significant snaps. Washington and Bass both showed some flashes last year in limited opportunities while the final trio will serve as camp bodies.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina - I wish). Round 2: Kony Ealy (Missouri), Stephon Tuitt (Notre Dame). Round 3: Scott Crichton (Oregon State), Dominique Easley (Florida), Kareem Martin (North Carolina).
Draft Analysis: If Clowney slips to even #4, I'd be extremely tempted to offer our 2014 and 2015 #1 picks to get him. It won't happen, but it's a nice dream. Ealy, Crichton, Easley, and Martin are all quicker pass rushers who could develop into every-down players. Tuitt is the anomaly, a very large DE similar to Houston. Emery has shown a willingness to bring in big athletes on the defense as opposed to guys who fit one particular spot. Drafting an oversized defensive end in the Houston mold would give the Bears tons of flexibility in pass rushing situations, enabling the team to move Houston and Tuitt inside on obvious throwing downs with Allen, Young, and even new linebacker Shea McClellin rushing from the outside. The flexibility could be attractive. I'd be surprised if a later-round selection was used on a DE as it would represent punting on Washington just one year after using a sixth-round choice on him.
Defensive Tackle
Players on Roster: Stephen Paea, Jeremiah Ratliff, Nate Collins, Israel Idonije
Roster Analysis: I still like Paea quite a bit, in spite of his injury concerns, and he is primed to have a nice season in his contract year, particularly with improved play from the ends next to him. Ratliff was a pleasant addition last year, although he is clearly on his last legs. Collins and Idonije are merely depth.
Draft Need: 9
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Aaron Donald (Pittsburgh). Round 2: Ra'Shede Hageman (Minnesota), Louis Nix (Notre Dame), Timmy Jernigan (Florida State), Ego Ferguson (LSU), Anthony Johnson (LSU). Round 4 or later: DaQuan Jones (Penn State), George Uko (USC)
Draft Analysis: The Bears might survive 2014 without adding a starting-caliber DT to the roster in the draft, but I'd be absolutely floored if they attempted to do so especially given major health concerns for all of the top three on the depth chart. Donald has skyrocketed up draft boards and may be gone before the Bears pick. If that's the case, expect the Bears to either trade down in Round 1 or draft elsewhere. Round 2 appears to be the place to look for a DT with as many as six prospects possibly available in the round. The club really should add a DT, but thanks to an active offseason, only one DT is needed.
Outside Linebacker
Players on Roster: Lance Briggs, Shea McClellin, Khaseem Greene, Jordan Senn, Jerry Franklin, Lawrence Wilson
Roster Analysis: Briggs is at the end of an illustrious career and he's really the only thing holding this group together. Having said that, McClellin is a lock to make the team given his contract, Greene was last year's fourth-round-pick, and Senn was brought in to be a special teams ace. The Bears need to get better at OLB, yet four jobs appear relatively safe.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 2: C.J. Mosley (Alabama)
Draft Analysis: It makes little sense to use a late-round pick on an OLB with Greene and Senn both on the roster. As such, only a slipping Mosley is truly attractive as he could replace Briggs in the long-term while being a situational player as a rookie. Insert generic warning about banged-up Alabama prospects here.
Middle Linebacker
Players on Roster: D.J. Williams, Jon Bostic
Roster Analysis: Williams was a solid starter before tearing his pectoral last year whereas Bostic appeared overmatched at times despite superior athleticism. The hope here is that Bostic can wrestle the job away from Williams at some point this year, perhaps even in camp.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: N/A
Draft Analysis: There just isn't a true MLB worth taking.
Cornerback
Players on Roster: Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, Kelvin Hayden, Isaiah Frey, Sherrick McManis, Derrick Martin, C.J. Wilson, Sean Cattouse, Derricus Purdy, Demontre Hurst
Roster Analysis: Tillman is back for a victory lap (makes me happy!), Jennings is a solid #2, Hayden and Frey provide good depth, and the rest of the guys are likely to be forced out.
Draft Need: 10
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Justin Gilbert (Oklahoma State), Darqueze Dennard (Michigan State), Kyle Fuller (Virginia Tech), Bradley Roby (Ohio State), Jason Verrett (TCU). Rounds 2-3: Keith McGill (Utah), Stanley Jean-Baptiste (Nebraska), Dontae Johnson (N.C. State), Philip Gaines (Rice), Marcus Roberson (Florida), Jaylen Watkins (Florida).
Draft Analysis: McGill and Jean-Baptiste both have the kind of size the Bears have traditionally preferred from their corners (both 6'3", over 210 lbs.), but Gilbert, Dennard, Fuller, and Roby all have plenty of size too. Verrett is the one truly small prospect worth of consideration given his excellent skill set, although the size would be enough to keep me away. Regardless, there is a heaping pile of cornerback depth in this draft, depth that should be the strongest factor pushing Emery to consider trading down. The Bears should be able to grab a 2015 starter in one of the first three rounds and perhaps even later.
Safety
Players on Roster: Chris Conte, Ryan Mundy, M.D. Jennings, Craig Steltz, Danny McCray
Roster Analysis: I still love Conte. Then again, I thought that Brandon Hardin was a bigger, stronger, faster version of Conte; shows what I know. Anyway, the Bears need to count on a rejuvenated Conte playing as a starter and they're likely planning on Mundy doing the same even though he seems like a tweener. There is experienced depth here, although it's hardly comforting.
Draft Need: 7
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: HaHa Clinton-Dix (Alabama), Calvin Pryor (Louisville). Round 3 or later: Deone Bucannon (Washington State), Dion Bailey (USC), Ahmad Dixon (Baylor), Ed Reynolds (Stanford), Tre Boston (UNC), Antone Exum (Virginia Tech).
Draft Analysis: There's plenty of depth here as well, although Clinton-Dix and Pryor both have their flaws. Clinton-Dix doesn't have ideal speed for a centerfielder while Pryor is a bit undersized. Still, it certainly seems like the Bears can and should find a mid-round prospect here.
Specialists
Players on Roster: Robbie Gould (K), Tress Way (P), Drew Butler (P), Brandon Hartson (LS), Chad Rempel (LS)
Roster Analysis: Gould is a stud. The team is likely going to open up the punting job for a competition while the long snappers are keeping Patrick Mannelly's seat warm should he desire to return.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: N/A
Draft Analysis: There's no sense in drafting a specialist.
Summary
Based on the above, I have ranked the team needs in the following order:
Cornerback (10)
Defensive Tackle (9)
Tight End (8)
Safety (7)
Running Back (5)
Offensive Tackle (4)
Defensive End (2)
Outside Linebacker (2)
Quarterback (2)
Interior Offensive Line (1)
Wide Receiver (0)
Middle Linebacker (0)
Specialists (0)
None of this surprises me as it jives largely with what I've thought for months: the team needs a starting-caliber DT and more help in the secondary. With that in mind, here's what I'd like to see at each pick assuming the club holds on to all of their selections:
#14: CB Kyle Fuller (Virginia Tech)
#51: DT Timmy Jernigan (Florida State)
#82: CB Dontae Johnson (N.C. State)
#117: TE Xavier Grimble (USC)
#156: OT Seantrel Henderson (Miami)
#183: S Antone Exum (Virginia Tech)
#191: RB Marion Grice (Arizona State)
Truth be told, I'd prefer that the Bears spend more value on linemen, but this is just how it broke down for me. The secondary gets a major infusion that is much needed. Jernigan should be a rotation piece from Day One. Grimble, Henderson, and Grice are challenge pieces for Aaron Kromer and Marc Trestman to develop. Exum would probably need something like a redshirt season, but that's fine given some useful depth at safety. Fuller and Jernigan would be a nice haul up top and that's most important.
On the eve of the 2009 draft, I remember laying in bed one night, completely falling in love with an undersized receiver who ran impeccable routes, had tremendous quickness, excellent body control, and very strong hands. It's a shame that he wasn't a bit bigger: if Johnny Knox weighed even 20 lbs. more, perhaps his career wouldn't have ended two years ago. Regardless, I appreciate that such a stroke of luck - falling in love with a player before your team magically drafts him 140th overall - is unlikely to ever happen again, so what's the use in pressing destiny?
Instead, I like to take a look at the roster in advance of the draft, assessing which positions should be targeted for bodies. There's no sense in saying "the Bears must draft a defensive tackle in the first round!" The only player the Bears must draft in the first round if given the opportunity is Jadeveon Clowney. That's it. Otherwise, they must draft a good football player, wherever he plays. I'd like for them to do the same thing in each subsequent round.
With that in mind, here's a look at the players currently under contract with a look toward which positions could use some help late this week. The draft need will be on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 representing the need to add another quarterback behind Joe Montana and Steve Young and 10 showing the need to add a left tackle to replace Aaron Gibson.
Quarterback
Players on Roster: Jay Cutler, Jordan Palmer, Jerrod Johnson
Roster Analysis: The Bears would be wise to add another quarterback at some point this offseason, if only to add some competition for Palmer, but they hardly need to add a big-time player here.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville), Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M), Blake Bortles (Central Florida).
Draft Analysis: If one of these three falls to the Bears at #14, they should at least entertain the idea of drafting such a high caliber signal caller. I'm among the minority that will be surprised to see even one of this trio last to #14 with at least Houston, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota all desperately in need of a quarterback. How many of those GMs really want to get fired in the next two years if they run out Case Keenum or Brian Hoyer every game? Assuming they'd like to stay employed, someone will bite the bullet and draft a QB. After that trio, there's not much of a point in using a later-round pick on a quarterback. For every Tom Brady, there are 1,000 Nathan Enderles. There is much greater value available late in the draft at other positions.
Running Back
Players on Roster: Matt Forte, Michael Ford, Shaun Draughn, Tony Fiammetta (FB), Willie Carter (FB)
Roster Analysis: If there's one thing we've learned over the past few years, it is that NFL running backs come in all shapes and sizes and productive backs can be found as undrafted free agents nearly as well as top picks. Forte and Fiammetta will both make the roster while Draughn and Carter will not; Ford should return, but the question will be whether he comes back as the second or third back. I think the Bears will add someone, although that someone could very well be an undrafted free agent just like Ford.
Draft Need: 5
Potential Draft Targets: Rounds 3-4: Bishop Sankey (Washington), Jeremy Hill (LSU), Tre Mason (Auburn). Rounds 5-6: Charles Sims (West Virginia), Marion Grice (Arizona State)
Draft Analysis: These are all value picks as each players should be drafted a round or two higher. Hill, Sims, and Grice are in the same mold as Matt Forte: big, powerful runners who could be every-down backs. Sankey and Mason are more traditional change of pace backs who could contribute more right away. The only wrong place to draft a running back is in the first round.
Tight End
Players on Roster: Martellus Bennett, Dante Rosario, Zach Miller, Fendi Onobun, Matthew Mulligan
Roster Analysis: The Black Unicorn was a star last year. Rosario was useful enough, but he's hardly a special second tight end. The other three are all unlikely to make the final roster, though Onobun will undoubtedly make noise this offseason as he tends to do.
Draft Need: 8
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Eric Ebron (North Carolina). Round 2: Jace Amaro (Texas Tech), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Washington). Rounds 3 and later: Troy Niklas (Notre Dame), Xavier Grimble (USC), Joe Don Duncan (Dixie State).
Draft Analysis: I will be surprised if the Bears don't draft a tight end in the draft, but I will be surprised if they grab one in the first round that isn't Ebron. He is the one player in this group who has the athleticism and the production to justify such a pick. The Bears goal-line offense would be otherworldly with Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett, and Ebron. Any of the other names would be useful enough later on.
Wide Receiver
Players on Roster: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Marquess Wilson, Josh Morgan, Domenik Hixon, Eric Weems, Josh Bellamy, Chris Williams
Roster Analysis: Emery has done a nice job creating competition for Wilson at the #3 spot with Morgan and Hixon both featuring extensive NFL experience. Weems recently took a pay cut, something that should ensure that he returns as a core special teamer. Either one of Morgan or Hixon will get cut or the team will carry six receivers.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: Round 4 or later: Allen Robinson (Penn State), Martavis Bryant (Clemson), Jordan Matthews (Vanderbilt), Dri Archer (Kent State)
Draft Analysis: If one of that trio slips into the fourth round or later, the Bears should consider pouncing. Otherwise, stay away from the true receivers. Now, time for an exception: Archer. He's a scat-back in the mold of Darren Sproles, a blazingly fast undersized utility back. If Archer remains on the board in the fourth round or later, the Bears should go for it.
Offensive Tackle
Players on Roster: Jermon Bushrod, Jordan Mills, Eben Britton, James Brown, Joe Long, Rogers Gaines
Roster Analysis: Bushrod was excellent in 2013 and while Mills struggled at times, he was nonetheless a solidifying addition. There's reason to hope for some improvement there. Britton was a nice depth addition and played regularly as a sixth lineman; Brown has been around for a few years now.
Draft Need: 4
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Jake Matthews (Texas A&M), Taylor Lewan (Michigan). Rounds 3 or later: Morgan Moses (Virginia), Cyrus Kouandjio (Alabama), Seantrel Henderson (Miami).
Draft Analysis: Matthews would be tempting at #14; I have to mention Lewan because everybody else loves him, even though I'm not all that impressed. Moses is a massive prospect who generates conflicting reviews. Kouandjio and Henderson receive mention because they are former top prospects who showed flashes in college while also exhibiting significant red flags. The team that drafts Henderson will either obtain a massive value or release him within 15 months.
Interior Offensive Line
Players on Roster: Kyle Long (G), Matt Slauson (G), Roberto Garza (C), Brian de la Puente (C), Taylor Boggs (C)
Roster Analysis: The starting lineup inside looks very strong with Long an immediate hit, Slauson a revelation after coming over from the Jets, and Garza remaining steady as his career winds down. de la Puente was a huge get late in free agency given his years of starting experience with current Bears Offensive Coordinator Aaron Kromer.
Draft Need: 1
Potential Draft Targets: Rounds 4 or later: Brandon Thomas (Clemson), Trai Turner (LSU).
Draft Analysis: Drafting a center is completely unnecessary given the presence of Garza and de la Puente. de la Puente is probably the top interior reserve right now, and given the presence of a long snapper on the roster as well, bringing in another lineman who needs to make the roster seems foolish. If Thomas plummets after tearing his ACL this spring or Turner drops after entering the draft too soon, the Bears could scoop up one of the pair in the later rounds, effectively giving the prospect a redshirt year in 2014 before expecting some contribution in 2015. That likely requires an assumption that Long will bump outside in 2015. Grabbing an interior lineman just isn't a good use of scarce resources.
Defensive End
Players on Roster: Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Cornelius Washington, David Bass, Austen Lane, Tracy Robertson, Trevor Scott
Roster Analysis: How quickly things change. Allen, Houston, and Young should all receive significant snaps. Washington and Bass both showed some flashes last year in limited opportunities while the final trio will serve as camp bodies.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina - I wish). Round 2: Kony Ealy (Missouri), Stephon Tuitt (Notre Dame). Round 3: Scott Crichton (Oregon State), Dominique Easley (Florida), Kareem Martin (North Carolina).
Draft Analysis: If Clowney slips to even #4, I'd be extremely tempted to offer our 2014 and 2015 #1 picks to get him. It won't happen, but it's a nice dream. Ealy, Crichton, Easley, and Martin are all quicker pass rushers who could develop into every-down players. Tuitt is the anomaly, a very large DE similar to Houston. Emery has shown a willingness to bring in big athletes on the defense as opposed to guys who fit one particular spot. Drafting an oversized defensive end in the Houston mold would give the Bears tons of flexibility in pass rushing situations, enabling the team to move Houston and Tuitt inside on obvious throwing downs with Allen, Young, and even new linebacker Shea McClellin rushing from the outside. The flexibility could be attractive. I'd be surprised if a later-round selection was used on a DE as it would represent punting on Washington just one year after using a sixth-round choice on him.
Defensive Tackle
Players on Roster: Stephen Paea, Jeremiah Ratliff, Nate Collins, Israel Idonije
Roster Analysis: I still like Paea quite a bit, in spite of his injury concerns, and he is primed to have a nice season in his contract year, particularly with improved play from the ends next to him. Ratliff was a pleasant addition last year, although he is clearly on his last legs. Collins and Idonije are merely depth.
Draft Need: 9
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Aaron Donald (Pittsburgh). Round 2: Ra'Shede Hageman (Minnesota), Louis Nix (Notre Dame), Timmy Jernigan (Florida State), Ego Ferguson (LSU), Anthony Johnson (LSU). Round 4 or later: DaQuan Jones (Penn State), George Uko (USC)
Draft Analysis: The Bears might survive 2014 without adding a starting-caliber DT to the roster in the draft, but I'd be absolutely floored if they attempted to do so especially given major health concerns for all of the top three on the depth chart. Donald has skyrocketed up draft boards and may be gone before the Bears pick. If that's the case, expect the Bears to either trade down in Round 1 or draft elsewhere. Round 2 appears to be the place to look for a DT with as many as six prospects possibly available in the round. The club really should add a DT, but thanks to an active offseason, only one DT is needed.
Outside Linebacker
Players on Roster: Lance Briggs, Shea McClellin, Khaseem Greene, Jordan Senn, Jerry Franklin, Lawrence Wilson
Roster Analysis: Briggs is at the end of an illustrious career and he's really the only thing holding this group together. Having said that, McClellin is a lock to make the team given his contract, Greene was last year's fourth-round-pick, and Senn was brought in to be a special teams ace. The Bears need to get better at OLB, yet four jobs appear relatively safe.
Draft Need: 2
Potential Draft Targets: Round 2: C.J. Mosley (Alabama)
Draft Analysis: It makes little sense to use a late-round pick on an OLB with Greene and Senn both on the roster. As such, only a slipping Mosley is truly attractive as he could replace Briggs in the long-term while being a situational player as a rookie. Insert generic warning about banged-up Alabama prospects here.
Middle Linebacker
Players on Roster: D.J. Williams, Jon Bostic
Roster Analysis: Williams was a solid starter before tearing his pectoral last year whereas Bostic appeared overmatched at times despite superior athleticism. The hope here is that Bostic can wrestle the job away from Williams at some point this year, perhaps even in camp.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: N/A
Draft Analysis: There just isn't a true MLB worth taking.
Cornerback
Players on Roster: Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, Kelvin Hayden, Isaiah Frey, Sherrick McManis, Derrick Martin, C.J. Wilson, Sean Cattouse, Derricus Purdy, Demontre Hurst
Roster Analysis: Tillman is back for a victory lap (makes me happy!), Jennings is a solid #2, Hayden and Frey provide good depth, and the rest of the guys are likely to be forced out.
Draft Need: 10
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: Justin Gilbert (Oklahoma State), Darqueze Dennard (Michigan State), Kyle Fuller (Virginia Tech), Bradley Roby (Ohio State), Jason Verrett (TCU). Rounds 2-3: Keith McGill (Utah), Stanley Jean-Baptiste (Nebraska), Dontae Johnson (N.C. State), Philip Gaines (Rice), Marcus Roberson (Florida), Jaylen Watkins (Florida).
Draft Analysis: McGill and Jean-Baptiste both have the kind of size the Bears have traditionally preferred from their corners (both 6'3", over 210 lbs.), but Gilbert, Dennard, Fuller, and Roby all have plenty of size too. Verrett is the one truly small prospect worth of consideration given his excellent skill set, although the size would be enough to keep me away. Regardless, there is a heaping pile of cornerback depth in this draft, depth that should be the strongest factor pushing Emery to consider trading down. The Bears should be able to grab a 2015 starter in one of the first three rounds and perhaps even later.
Safety
Players on Roster: Chris Conte, Ryan Mundy, M.D. Jennings, Craig Steltz, Danny McCray
Roster Analysis: I still love Conte. Then again, I thought that Brandon Hardin was a bigger, stronger, faster version of Conte; shows what I know. Anyway, the Bears need to count on a rejuvenated Conte playing as a starter and they're likely planning on Mundy doing the same even though he seems like a tweener. There is experienced depth here, although it's hardly comforting.
Draft Need: 7
Potential Draft Targets: Round 1: HaHa Clinton-Dix (Alabama), Calvin Pryor (Louisville). Round 3 or later: Deone Bucannon (Washington State), Dion Bailey (USC), Ahmad Dixon (Baylor), Ed Reynolds (Stanford), Tre Boston (UNC), Antone Exum (Virginia Tech).
Draft Analysis: There's plenty of depth here as well, although Clinton-Dix and Pryor both have their flaws. Clinton-Dix doesn't have ideal speed for a centerfielder while Pryor is a bit undersized. Still, it certainly seems like the Bears can and should find a mid-round prospect here.
Specialists
Players on Roster: Robbie Gould (K), Tress Way (P), Drew Butler (P), Brandon Hartson (LS), Chad Rempel (LS)
Roster Analysis: Gould is a stud. The team is likely going to open up the punting job for a competition while the long snappers are keeping Patrick Mannelly's seat warm should he desire to return.
Draft Need: 0
Potential Draft Targets: N/A
Draft Analysis: There's no sense in drafting a specialist.
Summary
Based on the above, I have ranked the team needs in the following order:
Cornerback (10)
Defensive Tackle (9)
Tight End (8)
Safety (7)
Running Back (5)
Offensive Tackle (4)
Defensive End (2)
Outside Linebacker (2)
Quarterback (2)
Interior Offensive Line (1)
Wide Receiver (0)
Middle Linebacker (0)
Specialists (0)
None of this surprises me as it jives largely with what I've thought for months: the team needs a starting-caliber DT and more help in the secondary. With that in mind, here's what I'd like to see at each pick assuming the club holds on to all of their selections:
#14: CB Kyle Fuller (Virginia Tech)
#51: DT Timmy Jernigan (Florida State)
#82: CB Dontae Johnson (N.C. State)
#117: TE Xavier Grimble (USC)
#156: OT Seantrel Henderson (Miami)
#183: S Antone Exum (Virginia Tech)
#191: RB Marion Grice (Arizona State)
Truth be told, I'd prefer that the Bears spend more value on linemen, but this is just how it broke down for me. The secondary gets a major infusion that is much needed. Jernigan should be a rotation piece from Day One. Grimble, Henderson, and Grice are challenge pieces for Aaron Kromer and Marc Trestman to develop. Exum would probably need something like a redshirt season, but that's fine given some useful depth at safety. Fuller and Jernigan would be a nice haul up top and that's most important.
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