This could be a long-winded post about the stupidity of mid-season college football polls. There's an almost endless stream of absurdities one can levy on these evaluations. My favorite tend to be the following: there is absolutely no chance that the head coaches of NCAA Division I (FBS still sounds stupid) watch every other game played in a given week. For that matter, there is no chance that they watch more than a small handful of other games. Realistically, given the time demands of NCAA head coaches, they probably don't watch more than a couple of plays from other games in a given week with the exception of scouting video. Yet one third of the BCS formula is calculated using this poll. From what I understand, most coaches don't fill out their own version of the poll, instead signing off on the rankings of a staffer. That makes more sense than coaches making blind rankings, but it's hardly an ideal alternative.
As you can tell, I could go on for hours about this. Instead, I'm going to use one incredibly simple case study.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs.
In the interest of full disclosure, I'm a Dan Mullen fan. I think he's a really solid coach on his way to a more prestigious job. He had a strong showing at Florida, using a creative approach with uniquely talented players en route to two national championships. His work at MSU has been even more impressive, somehow parlaying sub-par talent into three straight winning seasons. Mullen deserves credit for his success.
But #11?
If the Bulldogs manage to be #11 at the end of the season, almost every non-Alabama school should consider immediately firing their coach and handing their program to Mullen.
To say that they're #11 right now really only furthers two purposes. First, it creates interest in games that otherwise wouldn't likely be that interesting when a squad gets a number next to their name. Second, it gives the media something to talk about.
I, for one, really dislike mid-season polls. If they were just a fun way to compare teams among fans, that would be fine. But they're much more than that. Polls are the main way that programs are measured against each other over time. So if a team can be ranked 24th to start the year and they schedule the dregs of Division I football to inflate their record early on, they might spend half of the season in the polls despite being a poor team. On the flip side, teams are severely punished for scheduling strong opponents early in the season. For example, Michigan started the year ranked 8th in both polls. Now, I thought they were listed about 10 spots too high, but pollsters obviously thought enough of the team to have them in the top 10. Then they were thoroughly handled by the nation's best team, Alabama...so they dropped 11 spots. Mid-season polls suggest that Michigan isn't nearly as strong as many expected. Reality gives us the course of the season to figure out how good a team is instead of trying to compare teams experiencing vastly different games week to week. Many pollsters are also unwilling to drop a team that wins. Thus, in the mind of some, a road win against a strong opponent is no more valuable than a home win against a weak one. That's absurd to me.
Back to Mississippi State. At this point in the season, it's hard to say they've done anything other than hold serve. They have played just two road games, a 30-24 win at Troy and a 27-14 victory at Kentucky. It's not bad to have beaten those teams; it just doesn't mean much. Kentucky is a putrid 1-7 while Troy's best win at 4-3 is probably against Alabama-Birmingham; plus, they lost at home to Western Kentucky.
Moving to the home slate, the Bulldogs' resume doesn't actually improve much. They beat I-AA Jackson State in blowout fashion. They handled inexplicably horrendous Auburn (1-6). They similarly handled South Alabama. They enjoyed something of a shootout win over Tennessee (41-31), which sounded better before Tennessee was on its way to dropping to 0-5 in the SEC today. That leaves just one more win: a shellacking of the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders.
Just so we're clear, I'm not being critical of MSU. As I said, they have beaten every team on their schedule, in exactly the way that good teams do. You have to handle the weak part of your schedule to have a great season. But how many wins can the Bulldogs expect given the rest of their schedule? They play at Alabama tonight, a likely 20+ point loss. They follow by hosting Texas A&M, a likely two-score defeat. They then travel to Baton Rouge where they might not score. The season ends with a home date against previously wildly overrated Arkansas and a trip to rival Ole Miss. If MSU ends the season 8-4, does that mean they blew it during the second half of their schedule. Of course not. They could play markedly better football for the last month and end up 7-5.
They deserve credit for their play thus far. That credit should come in the form of a 7-0 record. Instead, they enjoy the distinction of people saying they are the 11th best team in the country right now (or something along those lines). Their final month will be viewed as a disappointment and that just doesn't seem right.
Now if they finish 12-0...
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Catch or No Catch?
While my general approach here is often literal and occasionally dry statutory interpretation, I figured I'd throw in something fun. A little game. If you're reading this, odds are you're a pretty big sports fan and/or a regular sports spectator. Since you probably live in the United States, you've likely seen at least a couple of baseball games.
I've seen at least hundreds of baseball games in my life and possibly thousands. One thing that I've learned as a sports fan, a student, an employee, and especially as a husband and father is that I know very, very little. Here, I'm going to focus on one issue that many of us probably feel pretty secure about: what is a catch? I'm going to throw out a few hypothetical situations. See if you can determine whether the play results in a valid catch or not. We probably won't see most of these in the upcoming World Series, but part of the beauty of sports is that you just never know when something crazy will happen.
For these examples, I will consider a hypothetical Cubs-White Sox game with the following players performing the following acts:
Batter: Anthony Rizzo
Baserunner: Brett Jackson
Second Baseman: Gordon Beckham
First Baseman: Paul Konerko
Right Field: Alex Rios
Third Baseman: Kevin Youkilis
White Sox Manager: Robin Ventura
Second Base Umpire: Joe West
Hypo #1: With no runners on, Rizzo hits a pop fly to the right side. Beckham camps under the ball, it falls into his glove, he squeezes the glove, secures the ball, and carries it with him into the dugout. Catch or no catch?
Hypo #2: With no runners on, Rizzo hits a fly ball down the right field line. Rios, Konerko, and Beckham all give chase. While running, Beckham looks up to track the ball. He gets an eyeful of sunlight, so he raises his glove in the air to block the sun. Unfortunately, his glove comes flying off. Fortunately, it does so in a way that enables Beckham to pick up the flight of the ball. He calmly removes his cap and the ball falls neatly into the hat. Catch or no catch?
Hypo #3: With Jackson on third base and one out, Rizzo hits a fly ball over Beckham's head toward shallow right field. Beckham gives chase running backward while Rios comes charging in attempting to make the play. Beckham dives for the ball, but can't quite make the grab as it bounces off the tip of his glove. Thinking Beckham has failed to make the play, Jackson charges home and crosses the plate. However, the ball popped up off of Beckham's glove and Rios secures the ball in his glove before it touches the ground. After making the grab, Rios calmly throws to Youkilis, who steps on third base. Catch or no catch? And what to make of Jackson?
Hypo #4: With Jackson on second and none out, Rizzo lifts a fly ball to deep right. Rios settles under the ball, loading his body into a throwing position so he can make a throw to third base in an attempt to nab a tagging Jackson. As the ball approaches, Rios begins to move forward, then as the ball hits in the pocket of his glove, he reaches his right hand into the glove to remove the ball for a throw toward third base. When he reaches his hand in, instead of securing the ball, he knocks it out with the outside of his hand and the ball falls to the ground. Rizzo elatedly strides into second base while Jackson advances to third. Catch or no catch?
Hypo #5: Rizzo lifts a high pop up to the right side in foul territory. Konerko gives chase, reaching the railing of the White Sox dugout. Konerko discerns that he cannot quite reach the ball yet, so he reaches out toward the ball. Unfortunately, he reaches too far and loses his balance. Ventura is there to save him, propping up Konerko's otherwise falling body so Konerko avoids the fall. The ball falls into Konerko's glove. Catch or no catch?
Hypo #6: On a blustery Chicago day with a fierce left-to-right wind with no runners on base, Rizzo lifts a towering pop up to the center of the diamond. Umpire West charges toward the first base side of the field in an attempt to offer Beckham plenty of space to make a play on the ball. As the ball flies, it is blown well off course, seemingly chasing West as he runs. Beckham tracks the ball reasonably well, but he is just off course as the ball falls toward the ground. Beckham lunges toward the ball, it deflects off of his glove, and he falls to the ground. Unknown to West, Konerko was also tracking the ball. West collides with Konerko, knocking the first baseman unconscious by the impact of his fall. Right after the ball deflected off of Beckham's glove, the ball hits West in the face, then falls into Konerko's glove as he lays on the ground where he unconsciously secures it, the ball having never touched the ground. Catch or no catch?
Hypo #7: This grab. In MLB, catch or no catch?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, there we have it. Seven examples to test your baseball acumen. Enjoy!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANSWERS
#1: Catch. This is just your token catch. The basic definition of a catch in Rule 2.00 is "the act of a fielder in getting secure possession in his hand or glove of a ball in flight and firmly holding it."
#2: No catch. The rule is clear: the definition above governs "providing he does not us his cap, protector, pocket or any other part of his uniform in getting possession."
#3: Catch. The Comment covers this one: "A catch is legal if the ball is finally held by any fielder, even though juggled, or held by another fielder before it touches the ground." Clearly, even though Beckham made the initial contact with the ball, Rios made a catch and Rizzo is out. However, the bonus portion of the Comment means that Jackson is safe at home: "Runners may leave their bases the instant the first fielder touches the ball."
#4: Catch. The Rule itself speaks specifically to this common situation, giving wide discretion to the umpire: "In establishing the validity of the catch, the fielder shall hold the ball long enough to prove that he has complete control of the ball and that his release of the ball is voluntary and intentional. If the fielder has made the catch and drops the ball while in the act of making a throw following the catch, the ball shall be adjudged to have been caught."
#5: No Catch. The Comment handles this obscure scenario: "If a fielder, attempting a catch at the edge of the dugout, is "held up" and kept from an apparent fall by a player or players of either team and the catch is made, it shall be allowed." So why isn't this a catch? Unless he comes out of retirement, Ventura isn't a player. Had a reserve player propped up Konerko, the catch would stand. But a non-player manager cannot do so.
#6: No Catch. Again, this one might not be for the reason you anticipated. As far as the rules are concerned, the player's equipment is an extension of his person. In this case, Konerko's glove is part of him, so when the ball settles into his glove, it is as if the ball settled into his hand. According to the "secure possession in his hand...of a ball in flight," Konerko has made a catch. However, "it is not a catch if a fielder touches a fly ball which then hits a member of the offensive team or an umpire and then is caught by another defensive player." It seems that the rule would give Beckham a valid catch had the ball fallen into his unconscious hand, but for Konerko, there is no such luck.
#7: Catch. "A fielder may reach over a fence, railing, rope or other line of demarcation to make a catch. He may jump on top of a railing, or canvas that may be in foul ground." Note that no interference is called on any play where a fielder reaches over a fence or railing to catch a ball. Obviously interference isn't an issue here.
I've seen at least hundreds of baseball games in my life and possibly thousands. One thing that I've learned as a sports fan, a student, an employee, and especially as a husband and father is that I know very, very little. Here, I'm going to focus on one issue that many of us probably feel pretty secure about: what is a catch? I'm going to throw out a few hypothetical situations. See if you can determine whether the play results in a valid catch or not. We probably won't see most of these in the upcoming World Series, but part of the beauty of sports is that you just never know when something crazy will happen.
For these examples, I will consider a hypothetical Cubs-White Sox game with the following players performing the following acts:
Batter: Anthony Rizzo
Baserunner: Brett Jackson
Second Baseman: Gordon Beckham
First Baseman: Paul Konerko
Right Field: Alex Rios
Third Baseman: Kevin Youkilis
White Sox Manager: Robin Ventura
Second Base Umpire: Joe West
Hypo #1: With no runners on, Rizzo hits a pop fly to the right side. Beckham camps under the ball, it falls into his glove, he squeezes the glove, secures the ball, and carries it with him into the dugout. Catch or no catch?
Hypo #2: With no runners on, Rizzo hits a fly ball down the right field line. Rios, Konerko, and Beckham all give chase. While running, Beckham looks up to track the ball. He gets an eyeful of sunlight, so he raises his glove in the air to block the sun. Unfortunately, his glove comes flying off. Fortunately, it does so in a way that enables Beckham to pick up the flight of the ball. He calmly removes his cap and the ball falls neatly into the hat. Catch or no catch?
Hypo #3: With Jackson on third base and one out, Rizzo hits a fly ball over Beckham's head toward shallow right field. Beckham gives chase running backward while Rios comes charging in attempting to make the play. Beckham dives for the ball, but can't quite make the grab as it bounces off the tip of his glove. Thinking Beckham has failed to make the play, Jackson charges home and crosses the plate. However, the ball popped up off of Beckham's glove and Rios secures the ball in his glove before it touches the ground. After making the grab, Rios calmly throws to Youkilis, who steps on third base. Catch or no catch? And what to make of Jackson?
Hypo #4: With Jackson on second and none out, Rizzo lifts a fly ball to deep right. Rios settles under the ball, loading his body into a throwing position so he can make a throw to third base in an attempt to nab a tagging Jackson. As the ball approaches, Rios begins to move forward, then as the ball hits in the pocket of his glove, he reaches his right hand into the glove to remove the ball for a throw toward third base. When he reaches his hand in, instead of securing the ball, he knocks it out with the outside of his hand and the ball falls to the ground. Rizzo elatedly strides into second base while Jackson advances to third. Catch or no catch?
Hypo #5: Rizzo lifts a high pop up to the right side in foul territory. Konerko gives chase, reaching the railing of the White Sox dugout. Konerko discerns that he cannot quite reach the ball yet, so he reaches out toward the ball. Unfortunately, he reaches too far and loses his balance. Ventura is there to save him, propping up Konerko's otherwise falling body so Konerko avoids the fall. The ball falls into Konerko's glove. Catch or no catch?
Hypo #6: On a blustery Chicago day with a fierce left-to-right wind with no runners on base, Rizzo lifts a towering pop up to the center of the diamond. Umpire West charges toward the first base side of the field in an attempt to offer Beckham plenty of space to make a play on the ball. As the ball flies, it is blown well off course, seemingly chasing West as he runs. Beckham tracks the ball reasonably well, but he is just off course as the ball falls toward the ground. Beckham lunges toward the ball, it deflects off of his glove, and he falls to the ground. Unknown to West, Konerko was also tracking the ball. West collides with Konerko, knocking the first baseman unconscious by the impact of his fall. Right after the ball deflected off of Beckham's glove, the ball hits West in the face, then falls into Konerko's glove as he lays on the ground where he unconsciously secures it, the ball having never touched the ground. Catch or no catch?
Hypo #7: This grab. In MLB, catch or no catch?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, there we have it. Seven examples to test your baseball acumen. Enjoy!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANSWERS
#1: Catch. This is just your token catch. The basic definition of a catch in Rule 2.00 is "the act of a fielder in getting secure possession in his hand or glove of a ball in flight and firmly holding it."
#2: No catch. The rule is clear: the definition above governs "providing he does not us his cap, protector, pocket or any other part of his uniform in getting possession."
#3: Catch. The Comment covers this one: "A catch is legal if the ball is finally held by any fielder, even though juggled, or held by another fielder before it touches the ground." Clearly, even though Beckham made the initial contact with the ball, Rios made a catch and Rizzo is out. However, the bonus portion of the Comment means that Jackson is safe at home: "Runners may leave their bases the instant the first fielder touches the ball."
#4: Catch. The Rule itself speaks specifically to this common situation, giving wide discretion to the umpire: "In establishing the validity of the catch, the fielder shall hold the ball long enough to prove that he has complete control of the ball and that his release of the ball is voluntary and intentional. If the fielder has made the catch and drops the ball while in the act of making a throw following the catch, the ball shall be adjudged to have been caught."
#5: No Catch. The Comment handles this obscure scenario: "If a fielder, attempting a catch at the edge of the dugout, is "held up" and kept from an apparent fall by a player or players of either team and the catch is made, it shall be allowed." So why isn't this a catch? Unless he comes out of retirement, Ventura isn't a player. Had a reserve player propped up Konerko, the catch would stand. But a non-player manager cannot do so.
#6: No Catch. Again, this one might not be for the reason you anticipated. As far as the rules are concerned, the player's equipment is an extension of his person. In this case, Konerko's glove is part of him, so when the ball settles into his glove, it is as if the ball settled into his hand. According to the "secure possession in his hand...of a ball in flight," Konerko has made a catch. However, "it is not a catch if a fielder touches a fly ball which then hits a member of the offensive team or an umpire and then is caught by another defensive player." It seems that the rule would give Beckham a valid catch had the ball fallen into his unconscious hand, but for Konerko, there is no such luck.
#7: Catch. "A fielder may reach over a fence, railing, rope or other line of demarcation to make a catch. He may jump on top of a railing, or canvas that may be in foul ground." Note that no interference is called on any play where a fielder reaches over a fence or railing to catch a ball. Obviously interference isn't an issue here.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Bears-Lions Fourth Quarter Thoughts
Bears Third Drive
- There's Devin Hester! That quick screen to set up a one-on-one match-up rarely works. But it has worked for Hester before and worked again there.
- A strong run by Bush is negated by a rather weak personal foul called on Rachal.
- Then a gimme pass interference call drawn by Hester.
- Michael Bush, my goodness. Another hurdle.
- Brandon Marshall just knows how to use his body. His long third-down grab was a thing of beauty.
- I imagine Cutler could have gotten past Vanden Bosch, but the quarterback slipped. Without that sack, it's possible that the Bears could have reentered field goal range on the drive. Instead they're punting again. Podlesh hit a strong punt but got an imperfect bounce.
- I have to imagine we're about to see a deliberate scoring drive from the Lions.
Lions Third Drive
- Conte got caught in no-man's-land on the Lions opening play, but Stafford still read a Conte blitz, throwing the ball away. The young safety caught a real break.
- I like that the officials didn't call pass interference on Stafford's silly bomb toward Calvin. Still, Tillman took an unnecessary risk by slowing down in Johnson's path to the ball. Had Peanut continued running, he could have made a play on the ball.
- The Lions made the perfect play call on third down, throwing a screen right over the top of a Bears blitz. But Brian Urlacher is headed for the Hall of Fame. He may not be fast. He may not be quick. But he's going to be in the right spot. Two blockers, one receiver, and only one Bear. But he's Brian Urlacher.
- Harris hit his worst punt of the night. Good thing Tillman didn't try to intercept that deep pass for Calvin.
Bears Fourth Drive
- Strong running from Michael Bush has allowed the Bears to move the ball rather consistently. Without much of a hole, he made a nice run to the left side and set up the offense to take a chance - albeit unsuccessful - on second down.
- Good coverage by the Lions forces a Cutler rollout without receivers to hit downfield.
- Logan, holy cow. I get that he wanted to save a couple of yards, but with a coverage man on his back, a muffed catch there would have ended the game. Simply not worth the risk.
Lions Fourth Drive
- Stafford has quite an arm. His dump off to Titus Young traveled about 30 aerial yards, but he made it look like a quick flick of the wrist.
- I'd love to see another replay of Stafford's deep pass on the right sideline to Titus Young. It appeared that Young stepped out of bounds prior to catching the pass.
- Nice try by Conte, but he clearly didn't get that one. He should have made a better play on that ball. Stafford got lucky there, just throwing up a prayer right at Conte.
- Too much cushion from Tillman on a second-and-15 play with Conte over the top helping out.
- The defensive line chose a terrible time to go quiet.
- Tim Jennings chose a similarly terrible time to allow Bell to bounce off a tackle and pick up three extra yards.
- Major Wright has to make that play. He did a great job reading Stafford and jumping the pass. But that could be a seven point drop.
- Stafford was so cool and collected during the drive, but really came undone on the second and third down plays. I'd love to know why in the world he decided to throw it away on fourth down. What did he have to lose?
- It feels right that the ugly red zone possession ended with an interception, even if D.J. Moore's pick merely padded his statistics.
Bears Fifth Drive
- I wish we could have skipped those three minutes of time, taken away the Detroit timeouts, and allowed the Bears to go directly to their punt.
- Again, what in the world is Logan doing? It feels like he's trying to turn the ball over again.
Lions Fifth Drive
- Before this drive, I told a friend of mine "I hate that this game will come down to an onside kick." I hope I'm wrong.
- I'm stunned that Stafford needed a full 20 seconds to run the second play after the two minute warning. He seems so comfortable running the hurry-up.
- Israel Idonije looked to have ended the game with a 15-yard sack, but Stafford's pass to Young was really, really impressive, picking up a big first down.
- Nice breakup by Urlacher, reading Pettigrew.
- Yet another tremendous throw by Stafford, hitting Broyles over Jennings and past Conte. Here comes that dreaded onside kick.
- Thank goodness for Earl Bennett. Hanson got a nice hop on his onside attempt, but he got too much depth on it, leaving Bennett 15 yards deep to read the second hop.
I'll have some final thoughts tomorrow. For now, 5-1 sure feels nice!
- There's Devin Hester! That quick screen to set up a one-on-one match-up rarely works. But it has worked for Hester before and worked again there.
- A strong run by Bush is negated by a rather weak personal foul called on Rachal.
- Then a gimme pass interference call drawn by Hester.
- Michael Bush, my goodness. Another hurdle.
- Brandon Marshall just knows how to use his body. His long third-down grab was a thing of beauty.
- I imagine Cutler could have gotten past Vanden Bosch, but the quarterback slipped. Without that sack, it's possible that the Bears could have reentered field goal range on the drive. Instead they're punting again. Podlesh hit a strong punt but got an imperfect bounce.
- I have to imagine we're about to see a deliberate scoring drive from the Lions.
Lions Third Drive
- Conte got caught in no-man's-land on the Lions opening play, but Stafford still read a Conte blitz, throwing the ball away. The young safety caught a real break.
- I like that the officials didn't call pass interference on Stafford's silly bomb toward Calvin. Still, Tillman took an unnecessary risk by slowing down in Johnson's path to the ball. Had Peanut continued running, he could have made a play on the ball.
- The Lions made the perfect play call on third down, throwing a screen right over the top of a Bears blitz. But Brian Urlacher is headed for the Hall of Fame. He may not be fast. He may not be quick. But he's going to be in the right spot. Two blockers, one receiver, and only one Bear. But he's Brian Urlacher.
- Harris hit his worst punt of the night. Good thing Tillman didn't try to intercept that deep pass for Calvin.
Bears Fourth Drive
- Strong running from Michael Bush has allowed the Bears to move the ball rather consistently. Without much of a hole, he made a nice run to the left side and set up the offense to take a chance - albeit unsuccessful - on second down.
- Good coverage by the Lions forces a Cutler rollout without receivers to hit downfield.
- Logan, holy cow. I get that he wanted to save a couple of yards, but with a coverage man on his back, a muffed catch there would have ended the game. Simply not worth the risk.
Lions Fourth Drive
- Stafford has quite an arm. His dump off to Titus Young traveled about 30 aerial yards, but he made it look like a quick flick of the wrist.
- I'd love to see another replay of Stafford's deep pass on the right sideline to Titus Young. It appeared that Young stepped out of bounds prior to catching the pass.
- Nice try by Conte, but he clearly didn't get that one. He should have made a better play on that ball. Stafford got lucky there, just throwing up a prayer right at Conte.
- Too much cushion from Tillman on a second-and-15 play with Conte over the top helping out.
- The defensive line chose a terrible time to go quiet.
- Tim Jennings chose a similarly terrible time to allow Bell to bounce off a tackle and pick up three extra yards.
- Major Wright has to make that play. He did a great job reading Stafford and jumping the pass. But that could be a seven point drop.
- Stafford was so cool and collected during the drive, but really came undone on the second and third down plays. I'd love to know why in the world he decided to throw it away on fourth down. What did he have to lose?
- It feels right that the ugly red zone possession ended with an interception, even if D.J. Moore's pick merely padded his statistics.
Bears Fifth Drive
- I wish we could have skipped those three minutes of time, taken away the Detroit timeouts, and allowed the Bears to go directly to their punt.
- Again, what in the world is Logan doing? It feels like he's trying to turn the ball over again.
Lions Fifth Drive
- Before this drive, I told a friend of mine "I hate that this game will come down to an onside kick." I hope I'm wrong.
- I'm stunned that Stafford needed a full 20 seconds to run the second play after the two minute warning. He seems so comfortable running the hurry-up.
- Israel Idonije looked to have ended the game with a 15-yard sack, but Stafford's pass to Young was really, really impressive, picking up a big first down.
- Nice breakup by Urlacher, reading Pettigrew.
- Yet another tremendous throw by Stafford, hitting Broyles over Jennings and past Conte. Here comes that dreaded onside kick.
- Thank goodness for Earl Bennett. Hanson got a nice hop on his onside attempt, but he got too much depth on it, leaving Bennett 15 yards deep to read the second hop.
I'll have some final thoughts tomorrow. For now, 5-1 sure feels nice!
Bears-Lions Third Quarter Thoughts
Bears First Drive
- Was that a fake return? As Eric Weems ran up the middle, Hester ran toward the sideline. Perhaps they're just giving future opponents something to think about. Maybe Weems and Hester weren't on the same page.
- Wonderful, the return of Chris Spencer.
- Obviously Jay's ribs are going to be a problem. Kyle Adams was wide open. Jay never - never - struggles with throwing power.
- Gabe Carimi is one blown play away from being the next J'Marcus Webb. You know, the guy Cutler yells at for letting himself get killed.
- Welcome back Zack Bowman! High hanging punts allow the coverage unit to get in the return man's face. Logan took his eyes off the ball, allowing Bowman to make a diving scoop.
- Speaking of J'Marcus Webb, he just plowed out an enormous hole for Michael Bush. This defense is inexcusable for Detroit. They have to force Cutler to beat them in the air with his injured body.
- Well, maybe it's inexcusable. I guess Jay is doing alright still, even if that throw to Marshall was a bit behind him.
- Jay just missed Marshall on the slant. He had his favorite target on that play, but rushed the throw and put it in the ground.
- On the next play, when I saw the formation, I thought that a fade to Marshall was a given. there was no safety help as Detroit was sending a blitz, but the play was a stop instead. Detroit showed the same formation on the next play, but the Bears again tried a stop on the goal line, this time to Bennett. It seems that a fade would have been much more sensible.
- A nice high kick from Gould increases the lead.
Lions First Drive
- The Lions offensive line opened a beautiful hole for Leshoure on their first play of the second half. But the run was that much better because Leshoure showed excellent vision on the play, darting back and forth as the downfield space determined. He followed with another strong run before stumbling toward the hole on the next play.
- The Bears need to watch out for a downfield shot here on third-and-one. Instead, Titus Young made a nice grab on a quick slant. Tim Jennings played it well, but that play is very difficult to stop.
- Detroit is doing a great job allowing the aggressive Bears defensive ends to run upfield, past their running backs on slower developing run plays.
- Congratulations to Ryan Broyles on his first career catch. It was a beauty on a seam.
- Strangely the Lions are making hay by calling a variety of running plays. They should stick with it.
- Or Stafford could throw a slant while Young runs a fade.
- Chris Conte is too deep on third-and-two. As it turns out, it didn't particularly matter. Megatron got rather lucky allowing that bullet from Stafford to pass through his hands and into his shoulder. Johnson earned a questionable pass interference call on the next play where Stafford threw very high.
- Tremendous pass breakup by Peanut forces Detroit to run another play from the one.
- Wow! I like the Lions running up the middle there given the success of their running game. And I think Joique Bell is a great story. But why in the world isn't Mikel Leshoure carrying that ball? That's just an awful, awful choice. Bell has to know the situation. You cannot risk the ball being exposed like that on second down from the one. Major Wright did a nice job getting a hand on Bell's foot, and Henry Melton chose a great time to stand up into Bell's arms. The fumbles by Pettigrew were forced; Bell's fumble was just a poor play by the young back.
Bears Second Drive
- False start on the center, eh?
- Chilo Rachal failed to hold his block on a linebacker on Forte's nice five-yard run; a much bigger run was possible had he done so. Spaeth showed Rachal how on the next play, driving his lineman downfield, enabling Forte to dart to the second level.
- Bennett has great hands. I really like him. But there's just something about him that makes him nearly impossible to tackle. It seems that the opposition almost always needs two or three tacklers to bring him down.
- Sadly, Bennett's hand clearly isn't 100%.
- Watching Cutler miss short on passes is confusing.
- Dave Toub's coverage units should be required viewing for any high school special teams player. The coverage is spectacular.
Lions Second Drive
- Stafford's throw to Pettigrew on a dig route was perfect.
- Stafford has that look about him already.
- Of course, his next throw went almost directly to Major Wright, a few yards behind Megatron.
- Brian Urlacher frantically audibled into deep, soft coverage on third-and-three. Stafford wisely chose to deliver a quick pass, but Scheffler had no idea the ball was coming until after it had zoomed past his facemask. Urlacher definitely knew the play, Stafford adjusted, but it didn't appear that Stafford checked to see if Scheffler was on the same page.
- Why in the world did the Lions just punt? They had a fourth-and-three at the Chicago 48. There's no sense not trying to convert.
- Was that a fake return? As Eric Weems ran up the middle, Hester ran toward the sideline. Perhaps they're just giving future opponents something to think about. Maybe Weems and Hester weren't on the same page.
- Wonderful, the return of Chris Spencer.
- Obviously Jay's ribs are going to be a problem. Kyle Adams was wide open. Jay never - never - struggles with throwing power.
- Gabe Carimi is one blown play away from being the next J'Marcus Webb. You know, the guy Cutler yells at for letting himself get killed.
- Welcome back Zack Bowman! High hanging punts allow the coverage unit to get in the return man's face. Logan took his eyes off the ball, allowing Bowman to make a diving scoop.
- Speaking of J'Marcus Webb, he just plowed out an enormous hole for Michael Bush. This defense is inexcusable for Detroit. They have to force Cutler to beat them in the air with his injured body.
- Well, maybe it's inexcusable. I guess Jay is doing alright still, even if that throw to Marshall was a bit behind him.
- Jay just missed Marshall on the slant. He had his favorite target on that play, but rushed the throw and put it in the ground.
- On the next play, when I saw the formation, I thought that a fade to Marshall was a given. there was no safety help as Detroit was sending a blitz, but the play was a stop instead. Detroit showed the same formation on the next play, but the Bears again tried a stop on the goal line, this time to Bennett. It seems that a fade would have been much more sensible.
- A nice high kick from Gould increases the lead.
Lions First Drive
- The Lions offensive line opened a beautiful hole for Leshoure on their first play of the second half. But the run was that much better because Leshoure showed excellent vision on the play, darting back and forth as the downfield space determined. He followed with another strong run before stumbling toward the hole on the next play.
- The Bears need to watch out for a downfield shot here on third-and-one. Instead, Titus Young made a nice grab on a quick slant. Tim Jennings played it well, but that play is very difficult to stop.
- Detroit is doing a great job allowing the aggressive Bears defensive ends to run upfield, past their running backs on slower developing run plays.
- Congratulations to Ryan Broyles on his first career catch. It was a beauty on a seam.
- Strangely the Lions are making hay by calling a variety of running plays. They should stick with it.
- Or Stafford could throw a slant while Young runs a fade.
- Chris Conte is too deep on third-and-two. As it turns out, it didn't particularly matter. Megatron got rather lucky allowing that bullet from Stafford to pass through his hands and into his shoulder. Johnson earned a questionable pass interference call on the next play where Stafford threw very high.
- Tremendous pass breakup by Peanut forces Detroit to run another play from the one.
- Wow! I like the Lions running up the middle there given the success of their running game. And I think Joique Bell is a great story. But why in the world isn't Mikel Leshoure carrying that ball? That's just an awful, awful choice. Bell has to know the situation. You cannot risk the ball being exposed like that on second down from the one. Major Wright did a nice job getting a hand on Bell's foot, and Henry Melton chose a great time to stand up into Bell's arms. The fumbles by Pettigrew were forced; Bell's fumble was just a poor play by the young back.
Bears Second Drive
- False start on the center, eh?
- Chilo Rachal failed to hold his block on a linebacker on Forte's nice five-yard run; a much bigger run was possible had he done so. Spaeth showed Rachal how on the next play, driving his lineman downfield, enabling Forte to dart to the second level.
- Bennett has great hands. I really like him. But there's just something about him that makes him nearly impossible to tackle. It seems that the opposition almost always needs two or three tacklers to bring him down.
- Sadly, Bennett's hand clearly isn't 100%.
- Watching Cutler miss short on passes is confusing.
- Dave Toub's coverage units should be required viewing for any high school special teams player. The coverage is spectacular.
Lions Second Drive
- Stafford's throw to Pettigrew on a dig route was perfect.
- Stafford has that look about him already.
- Of course, his next throw went almost directly to Major Wright, a few yards behind Megatron.
- Brian Urlacher frantically audibled into deep, soft coverage on third-and-three. Stafford wisely chose to deliver a quick pass, but Scheffler had no idea the ball was coming until after it had zoomed past his facemask. Urlacher definitely knew the play, Stafford adjusted, but it didn't appear that Stafford checked to see if Scheffler was on the same page.
- Why in the world did the Lions just punt? They had a fourth-and-three at the Chicago 48. There's no sense not trying to convert.
Bears-Lions Second Quarter Thoughts
Bears Fourth Drive (Continued)
- My brother and I often discuss that the inconsistency of Kellen Davis will likely force the Bears into drafting a tight end this off-season. It seems that Davis still has at least one step backward for every positive step. His physical ability is undeniable, but his production is maddening.
- Cutler was very fortunate not to be intercepted on a risky third-down dump off.
- Podlesh's decent punt was punished by a strange penalty on an unknown Bear.
Lions Fifth Drive
- Taking over at midfield, Detroit needed some yards. A zero yard run on first down obviously doesn't work.
- McClellin and Wootton are just too fast for the Detroit tackles. They rapidly compressed the pocket, enabling the double-teamed Stephen Paea to gobble up an unearned sack.
- The Lions have roughly an average amount of talent for an NFL team. Because of that, they need Matthew Stafford to be an elite quarterback to be an above-average team. I certainly wouldn't suggest that the Lions give up on Stafford who is still just 24 and is currently a slightly above-average signal caller. But misses like that pass to Titus Young cost his team points. He had space with another receiver having drawn Conte out of the middle of the field, but he missed him badly.
Bears Fifth Drive
- Great choice by the Bears going with the hard count on first down. Unfortunately, Lance Louis jumped, but it only cost the team a foot or so.
- I would have considered a quick kick on third-and-10 from inside the one.
- The Lions knew the Bears were going with a quick pass on third down. The Bears didn't disguise it. How Brandon Marshall has that much space I'll never know. Great throw, great run after the catch, great conversion.
- Forte hasn't had much space after the first drive. The Lions safeties and linebackers are doing a nice job pursuing the back.
- That horse collar call was a poor one. It doesn't address another strong run-and-catch from Marshall.
- It's clear that Devin Hester is not Alshon Jeffery. Cutler misses the big-bodied receiver.
- Strong vision from Forte turned a one or two yard run into an eight-yard gain.
- The Lions may have the worst secondary in the NFL. Alphonso Smith is going to be overmatched by many NFL receivers. Against Brandon Marshall, Smith has virtually no chance.
- Gabe Carimi appeared to get beat terribly, but it's acceptable to get beat by a rusher who leaves before the snap.
- Kyle Adams and Lance Louis did a nice job getting out in front of Forte to provide some space. But Matt Spaeth made that five-yard run, taking Kyle Vanden Bosch all the way across the formation and away from Forte. Tremendous block by Spaeth.
- Unfortunately the next play was run right into a blitz. That tends not to work.
- Jay had one chance to make a play on the third down blitz. The blitz pickup was strong, but the coverage was excellent. Cutler was lucky to avoid a fumble there.
- Unfortunately, it didn't matter. Adam Podlesh had a tough time getting the hold down, but Gould's pretty clean kick was nonetheless rejected at the line by Lawrence Jackson. There goes his perfect season. An unprosperous end to an otherwise great drive.
Lions Sixth Drive
- A nice throw by Stafford on first down sets up an easily convertible second-and-one. Stafford made a nice, safe throw to get things going.
- But the linebackers and left defensive line made a wall that enabled the truly fast McClellin to make a great play from the backside.
- Lance Briggs did his best Peanut Tillman breaking up a third-down pass to Nate Burleson by punching out the recently caught ball.
- Love Smith got away with one there. The officials absolutely should have charged him with a timeout or a challenge for delaying the snap of the Lions punt while checking to see if Burleson's drop was really a fumble.
- It's strange to see any non-Hester Bear return a punt. While I'm generally plenty happy with Bennett getting a handful of return chances, I'd rather not expose him to big hits in his first game back from a hand injury.
Bears Sixth Drive
- And there goes the season. Suh is so powerful that every play he makes looks brutally violent. I'm reminded of Suh's shouldn't-have-been-penalized hit on Cutler in Detroit in 2010 where Suh took Cutler down with his forearm. Suh is just a great talent, the kind of player who can ruin a season.
- Seeing Cutler return is immediately the best play of this game for the Bears. And the most surprising.
- What a punt from Podlesh. Perfectly angled, high, deep. Just a great kick. I do wonder if Suh's big play can inspire the Detroit offense to a few big plays here.
Lions Seventh Drive
- The Lions have now put the ball on the ground twice in two possessions, though both went out of bounds. It seems likely that one fumble will stay on the pitch at some point.
- Stafford made a great, aware, athletic play to make a nice run.
- Then Pettigrew loses it again. Sheesh. Twice in three plays for Peanut.
- Then a great play call gashed a cleared out middle of the Bears defense.
- Stafford wisely held onto the ball on a quick screen call, running quickly for a five-yard gain. It was another very smart play by the quarterback who has his offense in a dangerous rhythm for the Chicago defense.
- I have no idea why Urlacher wasn't called for unsportsmanlike conduct after holding Tony Scheffler down for a few seconds after the tight end's first down grab before the two minute warning. Had that been any other player, I imagine a flag would have been thrown.
- Stafford wisely dumped off to Leshoure on first down in the teeth of good pressure.
- I don't understand calling for a run on the next play. Stafford's short passes had been carving up the Bears defense. Stafford was in a groove. Even had Leshoure not fumbled, it was a poor call.
- But credit where credit is due. Briggs had no business recovering that fumble, but he fought for the ball while laying on the ground with Leshoure on top of him. I'd like to think that my earlier comment about the Lions leaving a fumble on the playing surface was particularly prescient, but the combination of poor ball security by Detroit and turnover-seeking defense by the Bears made that inevitable.
Bears Seventh Drive
- Strange to see Cutler come back for one play, then head to the locker room. Hopefully he isn't seriously injured.
- I absolutely hate the Bears running a lazy hurry-up. What's the purpose of running the second down play with 25 seconds left on the play clock if you're going to run a draw on second-and-11? That's horrendous clock management by Lovie that I hope doesn't hurt the team.
- Thankfully Matt Forte completely bailed out Smith.
FIRST HALF THOUGHTS
The Bears defense looks every bit as good as they have all year. The front four has gotten solid pressure on Stafford, only allowing him to sit in a secure pocket on two or three occasions thus far. Detroit gave away a scoring chance with the Leshoure fumble, as did the Bears by allowing penetration on Gould's second field goal attempt.
I don't understand why the Lions haven't been running a no huddle offense. Stafford runs it beautifully and he did so at the end of the first half. Then they made a terrible choice to run up the gut but got punished much more severely than they deserved. The Detroit defensive front has been strong, but their defensive backfield has been terrible. If Jay Cutler or even Jason Campbell can continue to attack the Detroit secondary, the Bears should be able to maintain their lead.
Here's the thing about playing the Lions: once the fourth quarter shows up, Detroit will absolutely run their two minute offense and move the ball effectively. Therefore, it is imperative to build a sizable lead so the Bears defensive backs can take some chances on intercepting passes. If it's a tight game, the fourth quarter still favors Detroit given their experience with comebacks, big-armed quarterback, and monster receiver.
- My brother and I often discuss that the inconsistency of Kellen Davis will likely force the Bears into drafting a tight end this off-season. It seems that Davis still has at least one step backward for every positive step. His physical ability is undeniable, but his production is maddening.
- Cutler was very fortunate not to be intercepted on a risky third-down dump off.
- Podlesh's decent punt was punished by a strange penalty on an unknown Bear.
Lions Fifth Drive
- Taking over at midfield, Detroit needed some yards. A zero yard run on first down obviously doesn't work.
- McClellin and Wootton are just too fast for the Detroit tackles. They rapidly compressed the pocket, enabling the double-teamed Stephen Paea to gobble up an unearned sack.
- The Lions have roughly an average amount of talent for an NFL team. Because of that, they need Matthew Stafford to be an elite quarterback to be an above-average team. I certainly wouldn't suggest that the Lions give up on Stafford who is still just 24 and is currently a slightly above-average signal caller. But misses like that pass to Titus Young cost his team points. He had space with another receiver having drawn Conte out of the middle of the field, but he missed him badly.
Bears Fifth Drive
- Great choice by the Bears going with the hard count on first down. Unfortunately, Lance Louis jumped, but it only cost the team a foot or so.
- I would have considered a quick kick on third-and-10 from inside the one.
- The Lions knew the Bears were going with a quick pass on third down. The Bears didn't disguise it. How Brandon Marshall has that much space I'll never know. Great throw, great run after the catch, great conversion.
- Forte hasn't had much space after the first drive. The Lions safeties and linebackers are doing a nice job pursuing the back.
- That horse collar call was a poor one. It doesn't address another strong run-and-catch from Marshall.
- It's clear that Devin Hester is not Alshon Jeffery. Cutler misses the big-bodied receiver.
- Strong vision from Forte turned a one or two yard run into an eight-yard gain.
- The Lions may have the worst secondary in the NFL. Alphonso Smith is going to be overmatched by many NFL receivers. Against Brandon Marshall, Smith has virtually no chance.
- Gabe Carimi appeared to get beat terribly, but it's acceptable to get beat by a rusher who leaves before the snap.
- Kyle Adams and Lance Louis did a nice job getting out in front of Forte to provide some space. But Matt Spaeth made that five-yard run, taking Kyle Vanden Bosch all the way across the formation and away from Forte. Tremendous block by Spaeth.
- Unfortunately the next play was run right into a blitz. That tends not to work.
- Jay had one chance to make a play on the third down blitz. The blitz pickup was strong, but the coverage was excellent. Cutler was lucky to avoid a fumble there.
- Unfortunately, it didn't matter. Adam Podlesh had a tough time getting the hold down, but Gould's pretty clean kick was nonetheless rejected at the line by Lawrence Jackson. There goes his perfect season. An unprosperous end to an otherwise great drive.
Lions Sixth Drive
- A nice throw by Stafford on first down sets up an easily convertible second-and-one. Stafford made a nice, safe throw to get things going.
- But the linebackers and left defensive line made a wall that enabled the truly fast McClellin to make a great play from the backside.
- Lance Briggs did his best Peanut Tillman breaking up a third-down pass to Nate Burleson by punching out the recently caught ball.
- Love Smith got away with one there. The officials absolutely should have charged him with a timeout or a challenge for delaying the snap of the Lions punt while checking to see if Burleson's drop was really a fumble.
- It's strange to see any non-Hester Bear return a punt. While I'm generally plenty happy with Bennett getting a handful of return chances, I'd rather not expose him to big hits in his first game back from a hand injury.
Bears Sixth Drive
- And there goes the season. Suh is so powerful that every play he makes looks brutally violent. I'm reminded of Suh's shouldn't-have-been-penalized hit on Cutler in Detroit in 2010 where Suh took Cutler down with his forearm. Suh is just a great talent, the kind of player who can ruin a season.
- Seeing Cutler return is immediately the best play of this game for the Bears. And the most surprising.
- What a punt from Podlesh. Perfectly angled, high, deep. Just a great kick. I do wonder if Suh's big play can inspire the Detroit offense to a few big plays here.
Lions Seventh Drive
- The Lions have now put the ball on the ground twice in two possessions, though both went out of bounds. It seems likely that one fumble will stay on the pitch at some point.
- Stafford made a great, aware, athletic play to make a nice run.
- Then Pettigrew loses it again. Sheesh. Twice in three plays for Peanut.
- Then a great play call gashed a cleared out middle of the Bears defense.
- Stafford wisely held onto the ball on a quick screen call, running quickly for a five-yard gain. It was another very smart play by the quarterback who has his offense in a dangerous rhythm for the Chicago defense.
- I have no idea why Urlacher wasn't called for unsportsmanlike conduct after holding Tony Scheffler down for a few seconds after the tight end's first down grab before the two minute warning. Had that been any other player, I imagine a flag would have been thrown.
- Stafford wisely dumped off to Leshoure on first down in the teeth of good pressure.
- I don't understand calling for a run on the next play. Stafford's short passes had been carving up the Bears defense. Stafford was in a groove. Even had Leshoure not fumbled, it was a poor call.
- But credit where credit is due. Briggs had no business recovering that fumble, but he fought for the ball while laying on the ground with Leshoure on top of him. I'd like to think that my earlier comment about the Lions leaving a fumble on the playing surface was particularly prescient, but the combination of poor ball security by Detroit and turnover-seeking defense by the Bears made that inevitable.
Bears Seventh Drive
- Strange to see Cutler come back for one play, then head to the locker room. Hopefully he isn't seriously injured.
- I absolutely hate the Bears running a lazy hurry-up. What's the purpose of running the second down play with 25 seconds left on the play clock if you're going to run a draw on second-and-11? That's horrendous clock management by Lovie that I hope doesn't hurt the team.
- Thankfully Matt Forte completely bailed out Smith.
FIRST HALF THOUGHTS
The Bears defense looks every bit as good as they have all year. The front four has gotten solid pressure on Stafford, only allowing him to sit in a secure pocket on two or three occasions thus far. Detroit gave away a scoring chance with the Leshoure fumble, as did the Bears by allowing penetration on Gould's second field goal attempt.
I don't understand why the Lions haven't been running a no huddle offense. Stafford runs it beautifully and he did so at the end of the first half. Then they made a terrible choice to run up the gut but got punished much more severely than they deserved. The Detroit defensive front has been strong, but their defensive backfield has been terrible. If Jay Cutler or even Jason Campbell can continue to attack the Detroit secondary, the Bears should be able to maintain their lead.
Here's the thing about playing the Lions: once the fourth quarter shows up, Detroit will absolutely run their two minute offense and move the ball effectively. Therefore, it is imperative to build a sizable lead so the Bears defensive backs can take some chances on intercepting passes. If it's a tight game, the fourth quarter still favors Detroit given their experience with comebacks, big-armed quarterback, and monster receiver.
Bears-Lions First Quarter Thoughts
Lions First Drive
- Three-and-out. That's how we do it. Nice start for Peanut.
- But we're fortunate that Calvin Johnson couldn't make that third down play.
- When the Lions last played the Bears in November 2011, Devin Hester followed a 29-yard punt return with an 80-yard punt return touchdown. If the first punt is any indication, Nick Harris isn't going to give Hester a chance to beat his team. If that's the case, the Bears need to take advantage of favorable field position.
Bears First Drive
- I love that Cutler can audible, but clearly the Lions showed him a formation that confused Jay on the first two running plays.
- Excellent scramble by Jay on third-and-long to pick up the Bears initial first down.
- Another excellent job by Jay to evade Cliff Avril on the next play-action play. Jay's ability to get back to the line enabled the offense to have more flexibility on second down.
- Taking advantage of that flexibility, Mike Tice was able to call for a run on second-and-10. Lance Louis cleared out an enormous hole for Matt Forte, spinning his man out of the way, giving Forte the ability to hit the hole in a dead sprint. Kyle Vanden Bosch overpursued on the outside, giving Forte daylight. For as good a back as Matt Forte, that's just too easy.
- Then that touchdown. Just beautiful. An excellent play by Cutler and a good release by Marshall. The Bears ran only five plays on that 59-yard scoring drive. Five of those plays included running action to the left side of the formation with play action twice and actual runs three times, although Forte cut back two of the runs to the right side. Of those 59 yards, only seven came through the air on the touchdown to Marshall.
Lions Second Drive
- Reilly Reiff's cut block on Julius Peppers hurt my knees. Great block that sprang Mikel Leshoure.
- An excellent tackle by Tillman on the next play, setting up second-and-10 after a completion on a swing pass.
- After an unfortunate timeout call by the Bears offset a blown up run, Urlacher makes a perfect play on a blitz, swatting down a dump off.
- When the Bears defense forces third-and-long, it generally won't go well for the offense. While Urlacher and Briggs both showed a blitz in Stafford's face, Chris Conte's blitz destroyed the play, forcing Stafford into a risky soft toss in the flat to Joique Bell. Bell did a nice job securing the ball and getting a few yards. But that position won't work for Detroit.
Bears Second Drive
- Cutler's second down pass to Earl Bennett nearly hit the ground. The delayed timing killed the play.
- Then Cutler goes back to an open Bennett on third down, making an excellent read and delivering a beautiful ball. The protection was strong with only Cliff Avril coming around the end of the formation toward Cutler. Avril wasn't close to making a play on the quarterback.
- Even though Cutler wasn't close to connecting with Brandon Marshall on a downfield through on second down, the protection was again excellent. Lance Louis lost a step to Ndamukong Suh at the snap, but moved his feet well to force Suh off of his path to Cutler, giving Jay a pocket in which to step up.
- Cutler can't blame Tice for that third down timeout. Seems pretty clear that Jay didn't like something he saw. Hopefully burning the timeout results in a conversion.
- Unfortunately the Detroit defensive line collapsed the pocket quickly, forcing a quick dump off to Forte.
- Punter Adam Podlesh hit a clunker of a punt. He needed a better effort there punting from his own 46.
Lions Third Drive
- Corey Wootton made an important stop on Leshoure's first down run. The Detroit offensive line opened a huge hole for the back; had Wootton missed the tackle, Leshoure had space.
- ESPN had a nice angle of Major Wright blowing up the second down run, sealing the corner and forcing Leshoure back inside.
- Detroit inexplicably decided not to even chip Shea McClellin on third down. McClellin cannot overpower NFL offensive tackles and he likely can't even overpower most NFL tight ends yet. I wonder if there was miscommunication between the left tackle and tight end. McClellin is quick and he forced Stafford into the grasp of Julius Peppers.
Bears Third Drive
- Weak call on Gabe Carimi.
- Cutler's athleticism shines again. However, that was a bogus penalty call on Corey Williams. I must have missed the rule where a defensive player cannot hit a blocker in between that defensive player and the ball carrier. The hit didn't appear to be late. It did follow a decleater by Bennett.
- DeAndre Levy saved a big play on third down. Levy was too quick for Chilo Rachal on a screen and forced a field goal try.
- No kicker is automatic, not even Robbie Gould. His kick was sound, but Suh nearly swatted the ball.
Lions Fourth Drive
- Great protection by the Lions on first and second down. Major Wright absolutely has to make a better play on Stafford's second-down overthrow.
- Absolutely superb effort from Peanut Tillman manning up Megatron on a slow-developing third down play.
- Nice punt from Harris. But Hester really messed up on that punt, failing to catch a punt he should have rather easily handled. It cost him 10 yards.
Bears Fourth Drive
- Nice contain by Chris Houston.
- Three-and-out. That's how we do it. Nice start for Peanut.
- But we're fortunate that Calvin Johnson couldn't make that third down play.
- When the Lions last played the Bears in November 2011, Devin Hester followed a 29-yard punt return with an 80-yard punt return touchdown. If the first punt is any indication, Nick Harris isn't going to give Hester a chance to beat his team. If that's the case, the Bears need to take advantage of favorable field position.
Bears First Drive
- I love that Cutler can audible, but clearly the Lions showed him a formation that confused Jay on the first two running plays.
- Excellent scramble by Jay on third-and-long to pick up the Bears initial first down.
- Another excellent job by Jay to evade Cliff Avril on the next play-action play. Jay's ability to get back to the line enabled the offense to have more flexibility on second down.
- Taking advantage of that flexibility, Mike Tice was able to call for a run on second-and-10. Lance Louis cleared out an enormous hole for Matt Forte, spinning his man out of the way, giving Forte the ability to hit the hole in a dead sprint. Kyle Vanden Bosch overpursued on the outside, giving Forte daylight. For as good a back as Matt Forte, that's just too easy.
- Then that touchdown. Just beautiful. An excellent play by Cutler and a good release by Marshall. The Bears ran only five plays on that 59-yard scoring drive. Five of those plays included running action to the left side of the formation with play action twice and actual runs three times, although Forte cut back two of the runs to the right side. Of those 59 yards, only seven came through the air on the touchdown to Marshall.
Lions Second Drive
- Reilly Reiff's cut block on Julius Peppers hurt my knees. Great block that sprang Mikel Leshoure.
- An excellent tackle by Tillman on the next play, setting up second-and-10 after a completion on a swing pass.
- After an unfortunate timeout call by the Bears offset a blown up run, Urlacher makes a perfect play on a blitz, swatting down a dump off.
- When the Bears defense forces third-and-long, it generally won't go well for the offense. While Urlacher and Briggs both showed a blitz in Stafford's face, Chris Conte's blitz destroyed the play, forcing Stafford into a risky soft toss in the flat to Joique Bell. Bell did a nice job securing the ball and getting a few yards. But that position won't work for Detroit.
Bears Second Drive
- Cutler's second down pass to Earl Bennett nearly hit the ground. The delayed timing killed the play.
- Then Cutler goes back to an open Bennett on third down, making an excellent read and delivering a beautiful ball. The protection was strong with only Cliff Avril coming around the end of the formation toward Cutler. Avril wasn't close to making a play on the quarterback.
- Even though Cutler wasn't close to connecting with Brandon Marshall on a downfield through on second down, the protection was again excellent. Lance Louis lost a step to Ndamukong Suh at the snap, but moved his feet well to force Suh off of his path to Cutler, giving Jay a pocket in which to step up.
- Cutler can't blame Tice for that third down timeout. Seems pretty clear that Jay didn't like something he saw. Hopefully burning the timeout results in a conversion.
- Unfortunately the Detroit defensive line collapsed the pocket quickly, forcing a quick dump off to Forte.
- Punter Adam Podlesh hit a clunker of a punt. He needed a better effort there punting from his own 46.
Lions Third Drive
- Corey Wootton made an important stop on Leshoure's first down run. The Detroit offensive line opened a huge hole for the back; had Wootton missed the tackle, Leshoure had space.
- ESPN had a nice angle of Major Wright blowing up the second down run, sealing the corner and forcing Leshoure back inside.
- Detroit inexplicably decided not to even chip Shea McClellin on third down. McClellin cannot overpower NFL offensive tackles and he likely can't even overpower most NFL tight ends yet. I wonder if there was miscommunication between the left tackle and tight end. McClellin is quick and he forced Stafford into the grasp of Julius Peppers.
Bears Third Drive
- Weak call on Gabe Carimi.
- Cutler's athleticism shines again. However, that was a bogus penalty call on Corey Williams. I must have missed the rule where a defensive player cannot hit a blocker in between that defensive player and the ball carrier. The hit didn't appear to be late. It did follow a decleater by Bennett.
- DeAndre Levy saved a big play on third down. Levy was too quick for Chilo Rachal on a screen and forced a field goal try.
- No kicker is automatic, not even Robbie Gould. His kick was sound, but Suh nearly swatted the ball.
Lions Fourth Drive
- Great protection by the Lions on first and second down. Major Wright absolutely has to make a better play on Stafford's second-down overthrow.
- Absolutely superb effort from Peanut Tillman manning up Megatron on a slow-developing third down play.
- Nice punt from Harris. But Hester really messed up on that punt, failing to catch a punt he should have rather easily handled. It cost him 10 yards.
Bears Fourth Drive
- Nice contain by Chris Houston.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
The Bizarre Ending in Tampa
For anyone who has not heard about the ending of the Saints-Buccaneers clash today, you missed a thrilling conclusion. Taking over in his own end with just under two minutes remaining and trailing 35-28, Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman led an impressive drive down the field, eventually finding his team at the New Orleans nine with six seconds left. On the game's final play, Freeman hung in the pocket, bought himself some time by rolling out left, then fired a dart to an open Mike Williams in the back of the endzone for the game-tying touchdown (PAT pending).
But it was not to be.
So as to make this as useful as possible, here's a quick rundown of what happened on the game's final play. WR Williams was lined up on the left side of the formation. At the snap, he ran up the sideline on the left side of the field, reaching the back corner of the endzone. Freeman took the snap, hanging in the pocket for between two and three seconds before rolling out to the left side. After Freeman had left the pocket on his way toward the left sideline, Williams was pushed out of bounds in the back of the endzone by the New Orleans cornerback. Williams gathered himself, immediately reentered the endzone, and took roughly four steps in the endzone prior to catching the pass from Freeman.
The officials flagged Williams for going out of bounds, then being the first player to touch the pass. Because the play ended with an offensive penalty and no time remained on the clock after its completion, the game ended.
Was the result correct? Yes. Let's take a look at the rules just to make sure.
First, as we saw in our look at pass interference on a tipped pass under Rule 8, Section 5, Article 1, the window for defensive pass interference opens when the quarterback releases a pass and closes when the ball is touched. Here, pass interference did not apply as the New Orleans cornerback contacted Williams well before Freeman threw the pass.
Next, we look to the penalty that was actually called. Rule 8, Section 1, Article 6 addresses ineligible receivers. Subsection (d) explains that an eligible receiver who has been out of bounds prior to or during a pass is ineligible, regardless of whether he has reestablished himself in bounds. There is an exception to the rule: if the player is forced out by a foul by a defender, reestablishing himself inbounds makes the receiver eligible again. Then, Article 8 explains that there is a five-yard penalty for illegal touching of a forward pass. Subsection (b) tells that it is an illegal touch when a pass is first touched by an eligible receiver who has gone out of bounds, either of his own volition or by being legally forced out of bounds, and has reestablished himself inbounds. Here, Williams decidedly was forced out of bounds by a defensive player. However, the rule is clear that he is only eligible to catch the pass if he was forced out because of a defensive penalty. As mentioned above, pass interference is not an option.
What about illegal contact? Let's examine the relatively new illegal contact penalty and its possible application here. Rule 8, Section 4 discusses a variety of regimes in terms of what contact is legal depending on how close the contact occurs to the line of scrimmage. Here, we are only concerned with Article 3 which addresses illegal contact beyond the five-yard zone (contact within that zone is commonly known as a "chuck"). Article 3 explains that, if the player who receives the snap remains in the pocket with the ball, a defender may use his hands only to defend himself against impending contact caused by a receiver. It's clear that the New Orleans defender initiated contact with Williams. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, Article 7 unequivocally conveys that "if the quarterback leaves the pocket area with the ball in his possession, the restrictions on illegal contact...end, but the restriction on defensive holding remains in effect." While Williams was forced out with contact, he was not held. Thus, Freeman's leaving the pocket rendered the illegal contact violation null. Williams was legally forced out of bounds and illegally touched the ball when he caught the apparent game-tying score.
It's an unfortunate result for the Buccaneers, a squad that still has trips to Minnesota, Denver, and New Orleans in addition to two dates with the undefeated Falcons. To remain relevant, they absolutely needed a win today. An intelligent application of the rules by the officials effectively snuffed out any hope they had left.
But it was not to be.
So as to make this as useful as possible, here's a quick rundown of what happened on the game's final play. WR Williams was lined up on the left side of the formation. At the snap, he ran up the sideline on the left side of the field, reaching the back corner of the endzone. Freeman took the snap, hanging in the pocket for between two and three seconds before rolling out to the left side. After Freeman had left the pocket on his way toward the left sideline, Williams was pushed out of bounds in the back of the endzone by the New Orleans cornerback. Williams gathered himself, immediately reentered the endzone, and took roughly four steps in the endzone prior to catching the pass from Freeman.
The officials flagged Williams for going out of bounds, then being the first player to touch the pass. Because the play ended with an offensive penalty and no time remained on the clock after its completion, the game ended.
Was the result correct? Yes. Let's take a look at the rules just to make sure.
First, as we saw in our look at pass interference on a tipped pass under Rule 8, Section 5, Article 1, the window for defensive pass interference opens when the quarterback releases a pass and closes when the ball is touched. Here, pass interference did not apply as the New Orleans cornerback contacted Williams well before Freeman threw the pass.
Next, we look to the penalty that was actually called. Rule 8, Section 1, Article 6 addresses ineligible receivers. Subsection (d) explains that an eligible receiver who has been out of bounds prior to or during a pass is ineligible, regardless of whether he has reestablished himself in bounds. There is an exception to the rule: if the player is forced out by a foul by a defender, reestablishing himself inbounds makes the receiver eligible again. Then, Article 8 explains that there is a five-yard penalty for illegal touching of a forward pass. Subsection (b) tells that it is an illegal touch when a pass is first touched by an eligible receiver who has gone out of bounds, either of his own volition or by being legally forced out of bounds, and has reestablished himself inbounds. Here, Williams decidedly was forced out of bounds by a defensive player. However, the rule is clear that he is only eligible to catch the pass if he was forced out because of a defensive penalty. As mentioned above, pass interference is not an option.
What about illegal contact? Let's examine the relatively new illegal contact penalty and its possible application here. Rule 8, Section 4 discusses a variety of regimes in terms of what contact is legal depending on how close the contact occurs to the line of scrimmage. Here, we are only concerned with Article 3 which addresses illegal contact beyond the five-yard zone (contact within that zone is commonly known as a "chuck"). Article 3 explains that, if the player who receives the snap remains in the pocket with the ball, a defender may use his hands only to defend himself against impending contact caused by a receiver. It's clear that the New Orleans defender initiated contact with Williams. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, Article 7 unequivocally conveys that "if the quarterback leaves the pocket area with the ball in his possession, the restrictions on illegal contact...end, but the restriction on defensive holding remains in effect." While Williams was forced out with contact, he was not held. Thus, Freeman's leaving the pocket rendered the illegal contact violation null. Williams was legally forced out of bounds and illegally touched the ball when he caught the apparent game-tying score.
It's an unfortunate result for the Buccaneers, a squad that still has trips to Minnesota, Denver, and New Orleans in addition to two dates with the undefeated Falcons. To remain relevant, they absolutely needed a win today. An intelligent application of the rules by the officials effectively snuffed out any hope they had left.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Big Ten Power Rankings - Mid-Season
I gave my basic understanding of power rankings in the NFL post. A very brief recap: power rankings should give you a sense for how well a team should do in a given contest, not what their record is so far in a given season. For example, through two games, Indiana was 2-0 while Penn State was 0-2. Given only their records, one would assume that Indiana would handle Penn State head-to-head. Power rankings tell a different story, one that gives us a sense of how good a team actually is. Here's my take on the Big Ten teams at the approximate midpoint of the college football season.
1. Ohio State (7-0, 3-0). The Buckeyes have made it clear: even if they're the class of the Big Ten this year, they're simply not going to win pretty. Since obliterating Miami (OH) in their opener, Ohio State struggled to put away Central Florida, needed a horribly botched coverage by Cal on a late-game third-and-long to escape, got past Alabama-Birmingham, won in East Lansing by one, allowed an embarrassing 38 points at home versus Nebraska, and then turned in their worst performance versus Indiana - a 52-49 victory - since the schools tied....in 1990. Still, winning matters and Ohio State has the conference's best two conference wins so far this year over Michigan State and Nebraska. Braxton Miller has proved to be the explosive force many envisioned when he committed to the program, and the rushing attack has been explosive. The defense needs a ton of work, but with the kind of offensive firepower the club has exhibited, they can get away with allowing some points.
Ohio State should have no trouble handling Purdue this weekend. However, the Ineligibowl at Penn State the following weekend could be the (albeit very confusing) game of the year in the conference. If Ohio State beats Penn State, they should head to Madison at 10-0 before hosting Michigan in the finale.
2. Penn State (4-2, 2-0). When Sam Ficken missed his fourth field goal in a devastating one-point loss to Virginia in Week Two, many observers punted on the Nittany Lions season. Since that contest, the club has turned in a run of spirited performances that have turned the season around. Led by All-American-caliber linebacking duo Michael Mauti and Gerald Hodges, the Penn State defense has weathered a miserable off-season to produce excellent results. The loss to Ohio looks better every week (the Bobcats are 7-0), and senior quarterback Matt McGloin has turned from Big Ten laughing stock to respectable starter. It has been a truly incredible turn of events that has new boss Bill O'Brien neck and neck with Urban Meyer for Coach of the Year honors. At this juncture, I wonder if Silas Redd, Justin Brown, and Anthony Fera would be interested in coming back to Happy Valley.
The schedule the rest of the way includes plenty of winnable games. After a trip to the nightmare that is Kinnick Stadium, Penn State hosts Ohio State, enjoys back-to-back trips to Purdue and Nebraska, then closes the season returning home for Indiana and Wisconsin. Any win total between six and nine makes sense. For now, the defense looks good enough to carry the team.
3. Michigan (4-2, 2-0). At this point, I still feel like we don't know too terribly much about this Michigan team. They were unsurprisingly obliterated by an elite Alabama team. They struggled to beat Air Force at home, hardly an embarrassing result against a solid Falcons squad. They crushed Massachusetts. Then they played a turnover-filled contest in South Bend, ultimately losing an ugly 13-6 game to a strong Irish team. Since then, they have outscored Purdue and Illinois 89-13. It's clear that Michigan has the ability to produce a great season; it's also clear that they're not an elite squad. It's also clear that the losing records of the Rich Rodriguez regime are a thing of the past. Denard Robinson has produced a number of beautiful plays, but was completely overmatched against Alabama and turned the ball over five times versus Notre Dame.
We'll know how to rate this Michigan team 10 days from now, after they host Michigan State and travel to Lincoln. If they win both of those games, they should head to Columbus with a top-10 ranking. We'll also know where to rate Robinson in Michigan lore after the next month and a half.
4. Nebraska (4-2, 1-1). Nebraska played a patsy non-conference schedule. Their only decent opponent - UCLA - beat the Huskers. Since then, they enjoyed a tremendous comeback versus Wisconsin, then were blasted for 63 in Columbus. Nebraska has the look of a good team that is truly volatile. Because they miss Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue, they play easily the Big Ten's toughest conference schedule with only a date against a vastly improved Minnesota squad as a reliably likely win. The Nebraska offense has not struggled in the slightest. But the defense just does not resemble the blackshirt defenses of old.
5. Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1). Wisconsin's dreadful start to the season look a whole lot different in mid-October. Squeaking past Northern Iowa is still poor, but losing in Corvalis to Oregon State by three looks just fine as the Beavers are undefeated. Even Utah State looks strong with only a two-point loss to Wisconsin and a three-point loss at Brigham Young. Wisconsin has taken care of business versus Illinois and Purdue and positioned themselves nicely to turn in a solid season. Their lack of a quarterback - both Danny O'Brien and Joel Stave have thrown at least 75 passes - could cripple them however.
6. Michigan State (4-3, 1-2). Easily the conference's most disappointing team. They opened the year with a solid, conservative win over Boise State. Unfortunately, that set the tone for the season more than many expected. The passing offense is yet to click and there is plenty of blame to spread around. New quarterback Andrew Maxwell has left Spartan fans pining for Kirk Cousins. Established, reliable receivers like BJ Cunningham, Keshawn Martin and even Keith Nichol are nowhere to be found. The new batch of receivers has been terribly inconsistent, save for big tight end Dion Sims. Le'Veon Bell has produced in a way that reminds many of former workhorse back Javon Ringer, but the lack of a passing attack has allowed opposing defenses to focus on Bell.
Michigan State absolutely must find a way to win at least one of their next three contests at Michigan, at Wisconsin, and home for Nebraska. Thankfully, their defense has produced a strong season and should keep them in every game going forward.
7. Northwestern (6-1, 2-1). Despite an inconsistent aerial attack, Northwestern's ability to run the ball has propelled the team to an excellent start. Although their BCS-conference slate features the worst of those conference (Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College), Northwestern nonetheless swept their non-conference foes. They handled Big Ten cellar-dwellers Indiana and Minnesota behind versatile leader Kain Colter and stud runner Venric Mark. Thei only loss required three fourth quarter touchdowns from Penn State. They are unlikely to be favored in their next four games ahead of the season-ending clash with Illinois, but Northwestern has finally done exactly what they needed to in advance of the conference schedule.
Thing is, for the first time in many, many years, Northwestern is winning because of their defense, not in spite of it. If the defense continues to perform, the Wildcats could reach eight or nine wins.
8. Iowa (4-2, 2-0). The Hawkeyes would be much, much higher on this list had they not crumbled at home in the final minute versus Central Michigan. Excepting that game, they beat Northern Illinois at a neutral site, lost a tough rivalry game versus Iowa State, beat Northern Iowa and Minnesota at home by multiple scores, and enjoyed a road win at Michigan State.
But choking at home against Central Michigan simply cannot happen. Iowa is definitely good enough to compete in every remaining game they have. Then again, they are shaky enough that bowl eligibility is still a serious question.
9. Purdue (3-3, 0-2). The Boilermakers were a trendy pick before the season to make some serious noise this year. In their non-conference games, Purdue looked strong. They crushed their sub-par competition and played Notre Dame tight to the final gun. However, their first two Big Ten contests have been miserable home flops versus Michigan and Wisconsin. Their defense was strong before their bye week, but they have given up 41 points per game since then. Robert Marve deserves kudos for his toughness in playing through a torn ACL, but the quarterback play of Marve and Caleb TerBush has been only adequate. The offense seems to lack an identity, something that is crippling an otherwise promising season.
They only have two home games remaining; while they should handle Indiana in their finale, Penn State will be tough for them. They're a near-lock to lose this weekend in Columbus, and while they could win any of their other three road contests (Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois), it would hardly be stunning to see them at home in December.
10. Minnesota (4-2, 0-2). Despite needing triple overtime at UNLV, Minnesota took care of business, running the table in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Marqueis Gray has played strong football, both running and passing effectively. And Max Shortell has filled in nicely for Gray at quarterback. Although they lost in Iowa City and home versus Northwestern, there's still a chance that they can find two more wins and prolong their season. Even if they don't win another game, they'll have their best record since 2009. Here's hoping Jerry Kill's seizure issues don't prevent him from coaching the rest of the way and the team responds to his inspirational leadership.
11. Indiana (2-4, 0-3). Indiana is most likely on its way to another dreadful record. But this record just won't feel the same as some of those in the past. They lost by two versus Ball State and 15 at Northwestern. However, they played two of their best games in many years with both Michigan State and Ohio State needing big second halves to escape with tight victories. If they can play with that type of enthusiasm the rest of the way, the Hoosiers could get to four or fine wins. They will continue to have to overcome a talent gap in their remaining contests, but they should be commended for playing with such resilience.
12. Illinois (2-5, 0-3). Illinois has basically been the antithesis of Indiana. Their only wins are home games over Western Michigan and Charleston Southern. They were crushed by non-conference foes Arizona State and Louisiana Tech. Continuing that trend, they have been outscored 111-21 in three Big Ten match-ups against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Should they continue along this path, first-year coach Tim Beckman may need to start worrying about whether he will survive his new contract.
To be fair, the schedule does get much more forgiving the rest of the way. All five losses so far have come to teams ranked in the top 40 of Jeff Sagarin's college football ratings. Conversely, only one remaining opponent - Ohio State - is inside the top 40.
1. Ohio State (7-0, 3-0). The Buckeyes have made it clear: even if they're the class of the Big Ten this year, they're simply not going to win pretty. Since obliterating Miami (OH) in their opener, Ohio State struggled to put away Central Florida, needed a horribly botched coverage by Cal on a late-game third-and-long to escape, got past Alabama-Birmingham, won in East Lansing by one, allowed an embarrassing 38 points at home versus Nebraska, and then turned in their worst performance versus Indiana - a 52-49 victory - since the schools tied....in 1990. Still, winning matters and Ohio State has the conference's best two conference wins so far this year over Michigan State and Nebraska. Braxton Miller has proved to be the explosive force many envisioned when he committed to the program, and the rushing attack has been explosive. The defense needs a ton of work, but with the kind of offensive firepower the club has exhibited, they can get away with allowing some points.
Ohio State should have no trouble handling Purdue this weekend. However, the Ineligibowl at Penn State the following weekend could be the (albeit very confusing) game of the year in the conference. If Ohio State beats Penn State, they should head to Madison at 10-0 before hosting Michigan in the finale.
2. Penn State (4-2, 2-0). When Sam Ficken missed his fourth field goal in a devastating one-point loss to Virginia in Week Two, many observers punted on the Nittany Lions season. Since that contest, the club has turned in a run of spirited performances that have turned the season around. Led by All-American-caliber linebacking duo Michael Mauti and Gerald Hodges, the Penn State defense has weathered a miserable off-season to produce excellent results. The loss to Ohio looks better every week (the Bobcats are 7-0), and senior quarterback Matt McGloin has turned from Big Ten laughing stock to respectable starter. It has been a truly incredible turn of events that has new boss Bill O'Brien neck and neck with Urban Meyer for Coach of the Year honors. At this juncture, I wonder if Silas Redd, Justin Brown, and Anthony Fera would be interested in coming back to Happy Valley.
The schedule the rest of the way includes plenty of winnable games. After a trip to the nightmare that is Kinnick Stadium, Penn State hosts Ohio State, enjoys back-to-back trips to Purdue and Nebraska, then closes the season returning home for Indiana and Wisconsin. Any win total between six and nine makes sense. For now, the defense looks good enough to carry the team.
3. Michigan (4-2, 2-0). At this point, I still feel like we don't know too terribly much about this Michigan team. They were unsurprisingly obliterated by an elite Alabama team. They struggled to beat Air Force at home, hardly an embarrassing result against a solid Falcons squad. They crushed Massachusetts. Then they played a turnover-filled contest in South Bend, ultimately losing an ugly 13-6 game to a strong Irish team. Since then, they have outscored Purdue and Illinois 89-13. It's clear that Michigan has the ability to produce a great season; it's also clear that they're not an elite squad. It's also clear that the losing records of the Rich Rodriguez regime are a thing of the past. Denard Robinson has produced a number of beautiful plays, but was completely overmatched against Alabama and turned the ball over five times versus Notre Dame.
We'll know how to rate this Michigan team 10 days from now, after they host Michigan State and travel to Lincoln. If they win both of those games, they should head to Columbus with a top-10 ranking. We'll also know where to rate Robinson in Michigan lore after the next month and a half.
4. Nebraska (4-2, 1-1). Nebraska played a patsy non-conference schedule. Their only decent opponent - UCLA - beat the Huskers. Since then, they enjoyed a tremendous comeback versus Wisconsin, then were blasted for 63 in Columbus. Nebraska has the look of a good team that is truly volatile. Because they miss Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue, they play easily the Big Ten's toughest conference schedule with only a date against a vastly improved Minnesota squad as a reliably likely win. The Nebraska offense has not struggled in the slightest. But the defense just does not resemble the blackshirt defenses of old.
5. Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1). Wisconsin's dreadful start to the season look a whole lot different in mid-October. Squeaking past Northern Iowa is still poor, but losing in Corvalis to Oregon State by three looks just fine as the Beavers are undefeated. Even Utah State looks strong with only a two-point loss to Wisconsin and a three-point loss at Brigham Young. Wisconsin has taken care of business versus Illinois and Purdue and positioned themselves nicely to turn in a solid season. Their lack of a quarterback - both Danny O'Brien and Joel Stave have thrown at least 75 passes - could cripple them however.
6. Michigan State (4-3, 1-2). Easily the conference's most disappointing team. They opened the year with a solid, conservative win over Boise State. Unfortunately, that set the tone for the season more than many expected. The passing offense is yet to click and there is plenty of blame to spread around. New quarterback Andrew Maxwell has left Spartan fans pining for Kirk Cousins. Established, reliable receivers like BJ Cunningham, Keshawn Martin and even Keith Nichol are nowhere to be found. The new batch of receivers has been terribly inconsistent, save for big tight end Dion Sims. Le'Veon Bell has produced in a way that reminds many of former workhorse back Javon Ringer, but the lack of a passing attack has allowed opposing defenses to focus on Bell.
Michigan State absolutely must find a way to win at least one of their next three contests at Michigan, at Wisconsin, and home for Nebraska. Thankfully, their defense has produced a strong season and should keep them in every game going forward.
7. Northwestern (6-1, 2-1). Despite an inconsistent aerial attack, Northwestern's ability to run the ball has propelled the team to an excellent start. Although their BCS-conference slate features the worst of those conference (Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College), Northwestern nonetheless swept their non-conference foes. They handled Big Ten cellar-dwellers Indiana and Minnesota behind versatile leader Kain Colter and stud runner Venric Mark. Thei only loss required three fourth quarter touchdowns from Penn State. They are unlikely to be favored in their next four games ahead of the season-ending clash with Illinois, but Northwestern has finally done exactly what they needed to in advance of the conference schedule.
Thing is, for the first time in many, many years, Northwestern is winning because of their defense, not in spite of it. If the defense continues to perform, the Wildcats could reach eight or nine wins.
8. Iowa (4-2, 2-0). The Hawkeyes would be much, much higher on this list had they not crumbled at home in the final minute versus Central Michigan. Excepting that game, they beat Northern Illinois at a neutral site, lost a tough rivalry game versus Iowa State, beat Northern Iowa and Minnesota at home by multiple scores, and enjoyed a road win at Michigan State.
But choking at home against Central Michigan simply cannot happen. Iowa is definitely good enough to compete in every remaining game they have. Then again, they are shaky enough that bowl eligibility is still a serious question.
9. Purdue (3-3, 0-2). The Boilermakers were a trendy pick before the season to make some serious noise this year. In their non-conference games, Purdue looked strong. They crushed their sub-par competition and played Notre Dame tight to the final gun. However, their first two Big Ten contests have been miserable home flops versus Michigan and Wisconsin. Their defense was strong before their bye week, but they have given up 41 points per game since then. Robert Marve deserves kudos for his toughness in playing through a torn ACL, but the quarterback play of Marve and Caleb TerBush has been only adequate. The offense seems to lack an identity, something that is crippling an otherwise promising season.
They only have two home games remaining; while they should handle Indiana in their finale, Penn State will be tough for them. They're a near-lock to lose this weekend in Columbus, and while they could win any of their other three road contests (Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois), it would hardly be stunning to see them at home in December.
10. Minnesota (4-2, 0-2). Despite needing triple overtime at UNLV, Minnesota took care of business, running the table in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Marqueis Gray has played strong football, both running and passing effectively. And Max Shortell has filled in nicely for Gray at quarterback. Although they lost in Iowa City and home versus Northwestern, there's still a chance that they can find two more wins and prolong their season. Even if they don't win another game, they'll have their best record since 2009. Here's hoping Jerry Kill's seizure issues don't prevent him from coaching the rest of the way and the team responds to his inspirational leadership.
11. Indiana (2-4, 0-3). Indiana is most likely on its way to another dreadful record. But this record just won't feel the same as some of those in the past. They lost by two versus Ball State and 15 at Northwestern. However, they played two of their best games in many years with both Michigan State and Ohio State needing big second halves to escape with tight victories. If they can play with that type of enthusiasm the rest of the way, the Hoosiers could get to four or fine wins. They will continue to have to overcome a talent gap in their remaining contests, but they should be commended for playing with such resilience.
12. Illinois (2-5, 0-3). Illinois has basically been the antithesis of Indiana. Their only wins are home games over Western Michigan and Charleston Southern. They were crushed by non-conference foes Arizona State and Louisiana Tech. Continuing that trend, they have been outscored 111-21 in three Big Ten match-ups against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Should they continue along this path, first-year coach Tim Beckman may need to start worrying about whether he will survive his new contract.
To be fair, the schedule does get much more forgiving the rest of the way. All five losses so far have come to teams ranked in the top 40 of Jeff Sagarin's college football ratings. Conversely, only one remaining opponent - Ohio State - is inside the top 40.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
A Look Back: NFL Power Rankings After Week 4
Before I started the blog, I sent the following email to my friends on October 2nd. It's fun to look at this now. I'll have more comments about the post at the bottom. Without further adieu....
ESPN power rankings just organize teams by record. That's what the standings do. Power rankings should function to tell you who the best teams are, regardless of record. For example, by record, the Arizona Cardinals are infinitely better than the New Orleans Saints. If the Bears had to play one game to make the playoffs, who would you rather face? It's a real question, right? Well, to me that means those teams should be close in power rankings even if they're far apart in the standings. So without further adieu, here goes:
ESPN power rankings just organize teams by record. That's what the standings do. Power rankings should function to tell you who the best teams are, regardless of record. For example, by record, the Arizona Cardinals are infinitely better than the New Orleans Saints. If the Bears had to play one game to make the playoffs, who would you rather face? It's a real question, right? Well, to me that means those teams should be close in power rankings even if they're far apart in the standings. So without further adieu, here goes:
1. Atlanta (4-0). The most complete team in the league. High-powered offense that can score at will.
2. Houston (4-0). They've only had one test, a 6-point road win at Denver. But they've obliterated their other crappy competition and look to have the complete package, mostly because they have Danieal Manning.
3. San Francisco (3-1). Their defense is that good.
4. Green Bay (2-2). The record deceives. A loss to SF and another "loss" to Seattle don't change the fact that their offense is still excellent. The scheme is perfect. They could still get to 12 wins.
5. Chicago (3-1). Elite defense, elite special teams, strong passing offense, still a weak O-Line.
6. Baltimore (3-1). Flacco is good, but no better. He still holds them from the top echelon.
7. New York Giants (2-2). Still a good defense, and Eli will keep them going.
8. New England (2-2). That loss to ARZ is still weird. But they're .500 with a +42 point differential. They've still got Brady.
9. Pittsburgh (1-2). Road losses in Denver and Oakland. They could easily be 5-2 in a month and still have Cleveland twice after that.
10. Denver (2-2). Peyton's arm is....less. Plenty of defense and Peyton won't lose them games. Their division is uninspiring.
11. San Diego (3-1). Wins over Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City. Obliterated by Atlanta. Let's see them play someone else (like New Orleans and Denver back-to-back). I still don't believe in Philip Rivers.
12. Dallas (2-2). Last night was awesome for us, horrifying for Dallas. They're not nearly as bad as they looked last night.
13. New Orleans (0-4). Four losses. Outscored by 20 points. The schedule is brutal, so they're not going to the playoffs. But I still don't want to play them.
14. Arizona (4-0). Great defense and Patrick Peterson is a score waiting to happen at all times. But they still don't have an offense.
15. Cincinnati (3-1). The hardest team for me to peg. They've beaten crappy teams, but on the road. They were annihilated by Baltimore. I just don't know what they'll look like in a month.
16. Minnesota (3-1). Good defense and special teams paired with an excellent rushing attack. Worked for the QB-less '05 Bears. Won't last for Minny, but Ponder looks better than some other young QBs (Bradford, Gabbert).
17. Seattle (2-2). A seriously lucky win over GB. But a similarly close loss in Arizona. They're extremely unspectacular, but the young defense looks useful.
18. Carolina (1-3). Inflated because of Cam Newton. Ron Rivera the head coach looks like a disaster. But with Cam, they appear competitive at all times.
19. Philadelphia (3-1). Could very easily be 0-4 after 1-point wins over Cleveland and Baltimore and a 2-point win over the banged-up Giants on a missed FG. This team could go 4-12. They look worse than I expected, even if their record is much better.
20. Washington (2-2). I didn't buy RGIII before the year. I was wrong. The rest of the offense has a ways to go though. Defense has been much worse that expected, particularly that showing in St. Louis.
21. Buffalo (2-2). Trade out Ryan Fitzpatrick for an average QB and they jump 10 spots.
22. Detroit (1-3). Their good things are great (D-Line, QB, Megatron). Their bad things are horrendous (DBs, OL). Last year was a bit of a farce, but they're genuinely improving and could contend next year.
23. Indianapolis (1-2). Luck looks legitimate. They need another WR (or two), but the offense could be good in a year. Defense lagging behind.
24. Oakland (1-3). Carson will help them compete in games and McFadden still impresses me. Crap defense.
25. St. Louis (2-2). Better defense, but Bradford can't survive behind their awful line. Years away still as the offense is really in shambles.
26. New York Jets (2-2). Defense isn't as good as offense is bad. Without Revis to steal some games, they're a mess. Sanchez is bad.
27. Kansas City (1-3). Matt Cassel killing this team. I think Kyle Orton could get them to .500.
28. Tampa Bay (1-3). They don't do anything particularly well. Feels like a random collection of players on a team with no identity.
29. Miami (1-3). Defense is alright and Bush has impressed. Tannehill doing better than I expected, but years away from being good.
30. Jacksonville (1-3). Gabbert is easily the second worst starter in the league. He was an awful pick and sets the team back a couple of years. It's hard to get a good read on the rest of the core because of how bad he is.
31. Tennessee (1-3). Much worse than I expected. QB mess. CJ2K terrible. Missing Finnegan badly. They could pick in the top-3 next year. A big drop from Jacksonville.
32. Cleveland (0-4). They might jump 10 spots when they draft Matt Barkley. Until then, with Brandon Weeden running the show, they've got a stranglehold on this spot. Joe Thomas is a franchise OT and Trent Richardson looks great. That's about it.
How bad are things for the Browns? Remember when they traded #6 overall to the Falcons in 2011 when Atlanta drafted stud WR Julio Jones? Cleveland got #27, #59, and #124 in 2011 as well as #22 and #118 in 2012. Here's what they did with each pick:
#27 in 2011: Traded to KC along with Cleveland's own 3rd-rounder (#70) for #21. Cleveland chose DT Phil Taylor, an All-Rookie player.
#59 in 2011: Cleveland chose WR Greg Little. Little has been constantly criticized for numerous drops.
#124 in 2011: Cleveland chose FB Owen Marecic, the only FB drafted in the first four rounds. While Marecic is admittedly awesome (started at FB AND LB for Stanford), he's hardly an impact player.
#22 in 2012: Cleveland chose QB Brandon Weeden, a rookie who turns 29 next weekend.
#118 in 2012: Included in the mind-numbing deal whereby Cleveland traded #4 overall for #3 overall. To make that huge leap over Minnesota to draft RB Trent Richardson (I'm sure MIN was going to draft him), Cleveland surrendered #4, #118, #139, and #211.
The Julio Jones trade in itself wasn't a terrible idea for a Browns team that desperately needed to add depth and multiple starters. But their subsequent actions left me with plenty of questions.
1. If they wanted a WR out of the 2011 draft, why not draft elite-level talent Jones, then find a DT in the second round? Taylor himself may have slipped thanks to off-field issues.
2. Drafting a FB in the 4th round when your team has tons of holes is irresponsible. Not a question, just an admonishment.
3. Weeden? Why? Does anyone anywhere think he's going to be a top-20 QB at any point in his career? He's 4.5 years older than Matthew Stafford: of course he looked great in the Big XII last year! Any of the next 8 picks would have worked exponentially better.
4. You can't get fleeced moving up from 4 to 3. The only time you should pay a lot to move up in that manner is in a draft with 3 HOF caliber QBs and a team holding the #3 pick that puts it up for sale. What happens if someone else trades with Minny to move up to #3? Nothing! In fact, Cleveland does even better. Instead of drafting luxury skill player RB Richardson, they take OT Kalil or luxury skill position player WR Blackmon without giving up those extra picks.
There's a reason some teams suck a lot. For the Cleveland Browns, just look at their last two drafts.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Looking at the above, I still feel reasonably good about it, especially my diatribe against Cleveland. Congratulations to the Browns for a strong showing against the Bengals; unfortunately, they're still #32 in my mind right now. Cincinnati is moving down toward them. Were I to do a full blown new list, Cincinnati and San Diego would be the big fallers (shocking) while Seattle would enjoy a nice rise. But that's about all for the big movers.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
That Other Controversy from the Atlanta-St. Louis Wild Card Game
The Infield Fly Rule dominated discussion in the aftermath of St. Louis defeating Atlanta in baseball's first Wild Card versus Wild Card game. Lost in that shuffle was another controversy, one with which Major League Baseball has been dealing more regularly over the past few seasons. This issue impacts every spectator at every game.
The pace of play.
In the game in question, Braves catcher David Ross - starting in place of the hobbled Brian McCann - came to the plate in the second inning with a runner on first and two out. Ross got himself into a 1-2 hole. Then, immediately before Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse threw the fourth pitch, Ross verbally asked for time. He did not move his head to face the umpire or gesture in making his request. He simply uttered the request while looking forward. Lohse began his windup milliseconds before the home plate umpire granted the request. As a result, Lohse went through his pitching motion, delivering a strong change-up that fooled Ross into a swinging strikeout. Or so Lohse thought.
Because the umpire granted the request, Ross was given another chance. On the real fourth pitch, Lohse went back to his change-up, but the delivery hung high-and-away. Ross pummeled the ball over the wall in left-center for a 2-0 lead, one the Braves would relinquish in advance of the Infield Fly controversy to follow. You can watch the entire sequence here.
Baseball games in the 1920s average just under two hours. That average climbed steadily throughout the succeeding decades, finally nearing in on the three hour mark in the mid-1990s. Baseball has made a concerted effort to bring down the length of games with some success as the average length of game has settled back in the 2:45 territory with Commissioner Selig hoping to push that number further down near 2:30. One of the ways Selig has encouraged to cut down on game times is to require batters to keep a foot in the batter's box at all times. While this doesn't govern the situation in question, it provides the relevant background policy in determining whether the umpire was correct to grant Ross "time."
In the Comment to Rule 6.02(b), MLB's rule book explains that the umpire will not grant "time" at the request of the batter once the pitcher has started his windup, even for otherwise valid reasons such as dust in the batter's eye or steamed glasses. Here, although only by the slimmest of margins, Lohse began his windup prior to the granting of time. Going by the letter of the rule and its comment, the umpire was incorrect in granting "time."
But let's be a little more lenient. The umpire cannot be expected to perfectly perceive every millisecond of the game, especially when one player requests the timeout and another player 70 feet away begins to move his body. Rule 5.10 lays out the basic framework for the use of the "time" call by the umpire. Specifically, the umpire is empowered to call "time" when the weather makes play impossible, light failure makes following the game impossible, an accident incapacitates a player or umpire, a manager requests a conference with his player or makes a substitution, the umpire wants to inspect the ball, a player catches a ball but falls into the stands, or the umpire orders a player to leave the field. Rule 5.10(h) emphatically states that no umpire shall call "time" while a play is in progress. No other reasons for calling "time" are granted by the book.
But what does "while a play is in progress" mean? Incredibly, the MLB rules only define "Play" as the "umpire's order to start the game or resume action following any dead ball." It seems that the implication is that once the umpire starts play, it can only be stopped by an affirmative declaration of "time" as granted by the rules above.
At this point, we see the key issue surrounding the granting of "time" by umpires: in the most frequently invoked circumstances, the umpires lack rule book authority to call "time."
My Constitutional Law professor often spoke of two constitutions. One, the "Big C" Constitution, is the famous written document on which the United States government is founded. The other is what he called the "small c" constitution, "the way we do things around here." At some point in baseball's history, be it at the Elysian Fields, when the World Series started in the early 1900s, during the time of the Muderers' Row Yankees, in the midst of the game's post-World War II explosion, or some other time, it became a part of baseball's constitution for umpires to grant batters time whenever they requested it. The Commissioner has taken some steps to speed up the pace of play but thus far has been unwilling to challenge this piece of baseball's governing attitude.
As a result, while David Ross getting "time" has no written authorization, there would have been outrage had the umpire followed the written rule and refused to grant time. Perhaps MLB should consider revising the rule book so it better liens up with how the game is actually played by the players and officiated by the umpires. Then again, perhaps allowing "the way we do things around here" to continue is the best method.
The pace of play.
In the game in question, Braves catcher David Ross - starting in place of the hobbled Brian McCann - came to the plate in the second inning with a runner on first and two out. Ross got himself into a 1-2 hole. Then, immediately before Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse threw the fourth pitch, Ross verbally asked for time. He did not move his head to face the umpire or gesture in making his request. He simply uttered the request while looking forward. Lohse began his windup milliseconds before the home plate umpire granted the request. As a result, Lohse went through his pitching motion, delivering a strong change-up that fooled Ross into a swinging strikeout. Or so Lohse thought.
Because the umpire granted the request, Ross was given another chance. On the real fourth pitch, Lohse went back to his change-up, but the delivery hung high-and-away. Ross pummeled the ball over the wall in left-center for a 2-0 lead, one the Braves would relinquish in advance of the Infield Fly controversy to follow. You can watch the entire sequence here.
Baseball games in the 1920s average just under two hours. That average climbed steadily throughout the succeeding decades, finally nearing in on the three hour mark in the mid-1990s. Baseball has made a concerted effort to bring down the length of games with some success as the average length of game has settled back in the 2:45 territory with Commissioner Selig hoping to push that number further down near 2:30. One of the ways Selig has encouraged to cut down on game times is to require batters to keep a foot in the batter's box at all times. While this doesn't govern the situation in question, it provides the relevant background policy in determining whether the umpire was correct to grant Ross "time."
In the Comment to Rule 6.02(b), MLB's rule book explains that the umpire will not grant "time" at the request of the batter once the pitcher has started his windup, even for otherwise valid reasons such as dust in the batter's eye or steamed glasses. Here, although only by the slimmest of margins, Lohse began his windup prior to the granting of time. Going by the letter of the rule and its comment, the umpire was incorrect in granting "time."
But let's be a little more lenient. The umpire cannot be expected to perfectly perceive every millisecond of the game, especially when one player requests the timeout and another player 70 feet away begins to move his body. Rule 5.10 lays out the basic framework for the use of the "time" call by the umpire. Specifically, the umpire is empowered to call "time" when the weather makes play impossible, light failure makes following the game impossible, an accident incapacitates a player or umpire, a manager requests a conference with his player or makes a substitution, the umpire wants to inspect the ball, a player catches a ball but falls into the stands, or the umpire orders a player to leave the field. Rule 5.10(h) emphatically states that no umpire shall call "time" while a play is in progress. No other reasons for calling "time" are granted by the book.
But what does "while a play is in progress" mean? Incredibly, the MLB rules only define "Play" as the "umpire's order to start the game or resume action following any dead ball." It seems that the implication is that once the umpire starts play, it can only be stopped by an affirmative declaration of "time" as granted by the rules above.
At this point, we see the key issue surrounding the granting of "time" by umpires: in the most frequently invoked circumstances, the umpires lack rule book authority to call "time."
My Constitutional Law professor often spoke of two constitutions. One, the "Big C" Constitution, is the famous written document on which the United States government is founded. The other is what he called the "small c" constitution, "the way we do things around here." At some point in baseball's history, be it at the Elysian Fields, when the World Series started in the early 1900s, during the time of the Muderers' Row Yankees, in the midst of the game's post-World War II explosion, or some other time, it became a part of baseball's constitution for umpires to grant batters time whenever they requested it. The Commissioner has taken some steps to speed up the pace of play but thus far has been unwilling to challenge this piece of baseball's governing attitude.
As a result, while David Ross getting "time" has no written authorization, there would have been outrage had the umpire followed the written rule and refused to grant time. Perhaps MLB should consider revising the rule book so it better liens up with how the game is actually played by the players and officiated by the umpires. Then again, perhaps allowing "the way we do things around here" to continue is the best method.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Bears at the Bye: Defensive Pre-Season Expectations Versus First Quarter Reality
I tackled the offense last Wednesday. After a little down time due to sickness and a long trip for a wedding, here we are with the defense. As a reminder, the grading scale is given again below.
NOTE: I like to use a non-inflated grading scheme. I will be using a scale from zero to ten. For reference, zero represents abject failure, a unit that is clearly the worst in the league. Use the 2004 Bears quarterbacks for comparison, the incredible four-headed monster of Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel, Jonathan Quinn, and Rex Grossman that produced an incredible average game of 15.6 completions on 29.4 attempts with 0.6 touchdowns and 1 interception. On the other end of the spectrum, ten represents the 1985 Bears linebacking corps of Mike Singletary, Otis Wilson, and Wilbur Marshall, a unit that is decidedly the class of the league, a combination of big plays and consistency.
Defensive Tackles
Current Evaluation: 9.0
Urlacher is absolutely slower. He has missed plays that he would not have even last year. But he is still making more plays than I expected from him. Briggs, on the other hand, has been much better than expected. He is playing as well as I can remember at any time in his career. Roach has similarly exceeded expectations. The Chicago Bears expect excellence at linebacker and this trio has absolutely provided it. Hayes has contributed well on special teams, although he hopefully remains on the bench when the defense is on the field.
NOTE: I like to use a non-inflated grading scheme. I will be using a scale from zero to ten. For reference, zero represents abject failure, a unit that is clearly the worst in the league. Use the 2004 Bears quarterbacks for comparison, the incredible four-headed monster of Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel, Jonathan Quinn, and Rex Grossman that produced an incredible average game of 15.6 completions on 29.4 attempts with 0.6 touchdowns and 1 interception. On the other end of the spectrum, ten represents the 1985 Bears linebacking corps of Mike Singletary, Otis Wilson, and Wilbur Marshall, a unit that is decidedly the class of the league, a combination of big plays and consistency.
Defensive Tackles
Pre-Season Expectations: 8.5
I'm almost certainly alone here, but I absolutely loved our DTs entering the season. I really liked Henry Melton and saw a huge season from him in a contract year. Stephen Paea should have contributed quite a bit after a full year in the system and with a healthy off-season. Amobi Okoye is the perfect third lineman, although concerns about his knee had me a bit more bullish on him this year. Matt Toeaina has never done it for me, but as long as he's #4 it's ok.
I'm almost certainly alone here, but I absolutely loved our DTs entering the season. I really liked Henry Melton and saw a huge season from him in a contract year. Stephen Paea should have contributed quite a bit after a full year in the system and with a healthy off-season. Amobi Okoye is the perfect third lineman, although concerns about his knee had me a bit more bullish on him this year. Matt Toeaina has never done it for me, but as long as he's #4 it's ok.
Current Evaluation: 8.0
No individual player has grabbed the reins as a dominant player. Melton had a tremendous start yet again, but has already turned in a dud performance. He has still been undoubtedly the best DT so far. Paea has had a few nice games and is showing signs of turning into a similar player to Melton with more power and less speed. Okoye has looked every bit as good as last season, a huge surprise given Tampa's need at DT and their willingness to punt on him this off-season. Toeaina has been the same uninspiring, decent player from the past few years. Thing is, given those top three, the position has turned in an above-average showing in every contest and even produced two excellent showings. I love this trio, but I recognize that Melton may be gone in three months, so I'm enjoying the ride.
No individual player has grabbed the reins as a dominant player. Melton had a tremendous start yet again, but has already turned in a dud performance. He has still been undoubtedly the best DT so far. Paea has had a few nice games and is showing signs of turning into a similar player to Melton with more power and less speed. Okoye has looked every bit as good as last season, a huge surprise given Tampa's need at DT and their willingness to punt on him this off-season. Toeaina has been the same uninspiring, decent player from the past few years. Thing is, given those top three, the position has turned in an above-average showing in every contest and even produced two excellent showings. I love this trio, but I recognize that Melton may be gone in three months, so I'm enjoying the ride.
Defensive Ends
Pre-Season Expectations: 7.5
Any position group with Julius Peppers should be good. But I expected Izzy Idonije to be roughly league-average, Shea McClellin to do basically nothing while putting on weight for a year, and Corey Wootton to....well, maybe not be on the roster. Peppers is that good, but I expected to be frustrated by the production across from him.
Any position group with Julius Peppers should be good. But I expected Izzy Idonije to be roughly league-average, Shea McClellin to do basically nothing while putting on weight for a year, and Corey Wootton to....well, maybe not be on the roster. Peppers is that good, but I expected to be frustrated by the production across from him.
Current Evaluation: 9.5
So much for that. Peppers has been every bit as dominant as expected, continuing to play at an elite level at age 32. Idonije has been above-average over the course of the first five games, also exceeding expectations at age 31. McClellin has been about what I expected, although his speed is even better than anticipated. He has still had problems getting pushed around by offensive tackles, a problem he will struggle with until he can bulk up. But the reason this position has been so tremendously successful this year instead of simply good is Wootton. I was really excited about snagging Wootton in 2010's fourth round, but his collegiate knee injuries and professional injury proneness seemed to stop his career in its tracks. This year, he has been healthy and as strong as we could have hoped. He has played like a lesser version of Peppers. Excellent DE play is driving this team.
Linebackers
Pre-Season Expectations: 7.0
I love Brian Urlacher but he is fading. Coming off of a knee injury and at 34, he should have been able to provide a slightly above-average year because of his experience in the cover-2. But probably not much more. Lance Briggs was also into his 30s, so a big season would be unexpected. Nick Roach has been a solid contributor in his time with the Bears, but I didn't expect any improvement from him. Geno Hayes only should have been a special teamer.
I love Brian Urlacher but he is fading. Coming off of a knee injury and at 34, he should have been able to provide a slightly above-average year because of his experience in the cover-2. But probably not much more. Lance Briggs was also into his 30s, so a big season would be unexpected. Nick Roach has been a solid contributor in his time with the Bears, but I didn't expect any improvement from him. Geno Hayes only should have been a special teamer.
Current Evaluation: 9.0
Urlacher is absolutely slower. He has missed plays that he would not have even last year. But he is still making more plays than I expected from him. Briggs, on the other hand, has been much better than expected. He is playing as well as I can remember at any time in his career. Roach has similarly exceeded expectations. The Chicago Bears expect excellence at linebacker and this trio has absolutely provided it. Hayes has contributed well on special teams, although he hopefully remains on the bench when the defense is on the field.
Cornerbacks
Pre-Season Expectations: 6.5
I have loved Peanut Tillman for years. He is my favorite Bear. However, I expected that he would also slow down at this stage of his career given his extremely physical style of play. I haven't liked Tim Jennings since the 2011 NFC Championship Game when the big Green Bay receivers dominated the diminutive corner. I saw him holding down a job as a below-average starter. Kelvin Hayden was a great addition as a reserve corner; D.J. Moore should continue to fulfill the nickle role well while being overmatched should he ever have to move outside.
I have loved Peanut Tillman for years. He is my favorite Bear. However, I expected that he would also slow down at this stage of his career given his extremely physical style of play. I haven't liked Tim Jennings since the 2011 NFC Championship Game when the big Green Bay receivers dominated the diminutive corner. I saw him holding down a job as a below-average starter. Kelvin Hayden was a great addition as a reserve corner; D.J. Moore should continue to fulfill the nickle role well while being overmatched should he ever have to move outside.
Current Evaluation: 10.0
There's no way another team has produced as much in their defensive backfield. Moore played a poor first half in Dallas, then redeemed himself by tackling well and intercepting Romo. Hayden has played well in the nickle role and unsurprisingly held his own outside when pressed there. But this rating is all about the Tillman-Jennings combination. Jennings earned every bit of his September Player of the Month award, combining his always-solid tackling with an extremely aggressive approach on balls in the air that he has not used in the past. In my view, Tillman has still been the better of the pair, but it has required a truly elite performance from him thus far. The cover-2 thrives with corner play like this.
There's no way another team has produced as much in their defensive backfield. Moore played a poor first half in Dallas, then redeemed himself by tackling well and intercepting Romo. Hayden has played well in the nickle role and unsurprisingly held his own outside when pressed there. But this rating is all about the Tillman-Jennings combination. Jennings earned every bit of his September Player of the Month award, combining his always-solid tackling with an extremely aggressive approach on balls in the air that he has not used in the past. In my view, Tillman has still been the better of the pair, but it has required a truly elite performance from him thus far. The cover-2 thrives with corner play like this.
Safeties
Pre-Season Expectations: 6.0
Chris Conte is another favorite of mine and I expected him to be well above-average given his power-speed combination in the cover-2. Major Wright has been wildly inconsistent during his time in Chicago, so I figured he'd be just shy of league-average as a veteran in the scheme. I was incredibly high on Brandon Hardin entering the season, reasoning that he was a bigger, faster version of Conte, but his season-ending injury in the pre-season put a damper on my spirits. Craig Steltz is an ideal reserve given his special teams ability.
Chris Conte is another favorite of mine and I expected him to be well above-average given his power-speed combination in the cover-2. Major Wright has been wildly inconsistent during his time in Chicago, so I figured he'd be just shy of league-average as a veteran in the scheme. I was incredibly high on Brandon Hardin entering the season, reasoning that he was a bigger, faster version of Conte, but his season-ending injury in the pre-season put a damper on my spirits. Craig Steltz is an ideal reserve given his special teams ability.
Current Evaluation: 9.5
I'm not sure Conte could play better than he has. He has had plenty of big hits, but mostly used his speed to tighten passing windows, helping to force a number of intercepted underthrows. He might be the ideal cover-2 safety. Wright has been excellent, a big surprise to me. He still seems occasionally awkward physically, but overall has been great. Most importantly, both have been healthy for the most part. If they stay healthy all year, they could turn in the best season at the position in Lovie Smith's tenure.
I'm not sure Conte could play better than he has. He has had plenty of big hits, but mostly used his speed to tighten passing windows, helping to force a number of intercepted underthrows. He might be the ideal cover-2 safety. Wright has been excellent, a big surprise to me. He still seems occasionally awkward physically, but overall has been great. Most importantly, both have been healthy for the most part. If they stay healthy all year, they could turn in the best season at the position in Lovie Smith's tenure.
Punter (include coverage unit)
Pre-Season Expectations: 7.5
Adam Podlesh doesn't have a very strong leg. I didn't expect him to develop one overnight. I did expect him to place his punts well and minimize returns. Any Dave Toub unit should excel.
Adam Podlesh doesn't have a very strong leg. I didn't expect him to develop one overnight. I did expect him to place his punts well and minimize returns. Any Dave Toub unit should excel.
Current Evaluation: 7.5
This unit has been almost exactly was I perceived it would be. Podlesh hasn't pumped out any gigantic punts, but he also isn't getting his punts returned.
Punt Returner
Pre-Season Expectations: 10.0
It's Devin Hester. Come on.
Current Evaluation: 5.0
Well, I guess he hasn't been Devin Hester yet.
This unit has been almost exactly was I perceived it would be. Podlesh hasn't pumped out any gigantic punts, but he also isn't getting his punts returned.
Punt Returner
Pre-Season Expectations: 10.0
It's Devin Hester. Come on.
Current Evaluation: 5.0
Well, I guess he hasn't been Devin Hester yet.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Bears at the Bye: Offensive Pre-Season Expectations Versus First Quarter Reality
I've gotten a hard time over the past few years for becoming bullish on my favorite teams. I picked the Cubs for a fourth place 73-89 finish (apparently generous). I thought the Bulls would have a great season before losing to Miami in the Conference Finals (plenty realistic before Rose's knee injury). I thought the Canucks had a real chance to take the final step of winning the Cup this past year. Seems pretty optimistic to me.
Yet, I admit that in my push toward objectivity, I've found myself with less senseless hope for my teams. There's just something about looking through the Cubs' lineup before the season and being unable to convince myself that they can be competitive. It's a tough feeling but one I appreciate in that more realistic expectations enables me to be pleasantly surprised.
With that in mind, here's my look at the 2012 Bears through five games. I'll go position by position, first sharing my pre-season expectations on that position followed by my current thoughts on that group. In less-than-traditional fashion, I'm going to start on the lines and work away. Today I'll do the offense; tomorrow, the defense.
NOTE: I like to use a non-inflated grading scheme. I will be using a scale from zero to ten. For reference, zero represents abject failure, a unit that is clearly the worst in the league. Use the 2004 Bears quarterbacks for comparison, the incredible four-headed monster of Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel, Jonathan Quinn, and Rex Grossman that produced an incredible average game of 15.6 completions on 29.4 attempts with 0.6 touchdowns and 1 interception. On the other end of the spectrum, ten represents the 1985 Bears linebacking corps of Mike Singletary, Otis Wilson, and Wilbur Marshall, a unit that is decidedly the class of the league, a combination of big plays and consistency.
Offensive Guards/Center
Pre-Season Expectation: 3.0
I expected Roberto Garza to be a solid, average center. He has been a rock-solid contributor since he came over from Atlanta and should have another year or two of decent production. Lance Louis was a bit tougher to peg. I like Louis a lot, reasoning that he could be an average guard given the chance to blossom in the role. He was clearly outclassed as a tackle last year, but has shown plenty of encouraging signs inside. Chris Spencer, on the other hand, was the worst offensive lineman in all of football last season according to Pro Football Focus. He was bad enough that I expected him to lose his starting spot, and maybe even his job. Needless to say, I expected him to be horrific. When he won the left guard job coming out of camp, I was unhappy. I figured this would be one of the worst - but not the worst - position on the team.
Current Evaluation: 4.0
Garza and Louis have been difficult to notice, which is to say that they've largely done their jobs as interior linemen. If this was only evaluating those two, they'd likely be a 5.0 or 5.5. But Spencer got to play three games and produced predictably terrible results. Had I done this evaluation after the St. Louis game, the position group score would likely be a 2.5 or 3.0. But with two games of Chilo Rachal, the interior of the line has stabilized. Rachal is unlikely to be a special guard, but he's a great bet to represent a consistent improvement over Spencer. As such, this group is currently below-average, but not painfully so. At the same time, there's not much room for improvement. This unit deserves some credit for opening large running lanes in Jacksonville.
Offensive Tackles
Pre-Season Expectation: 1.5
I was still optimistic that Gabe Carimi could be an average right tackle in the NFL, but I also assumed he would experience some rookie growing pains after missing most of his rookie season with another knee injury. My optimism for J'Marcus Webb was substantially less. I don't begrudge Webb for being one of the few worst starting left tackles in the NFL; he's a seventh-round pick who was thrust right into a starting job on the offensive live's toughest spot. And it's not as if he's ever had an excellent left guard playing next to him. Nevertheless, the fact remains that Webb is easily one of the worst left tackles in the league and he is experienced enough that the massive improvement needed to make him approach average production just isn't coming.
Current Evaluation: 2.5
Carimi has been unspectacular at times, bad at others. He was particularly dreadful on the first drive of the third quarter in Jacksonville, committing a holding penalty, then back-to-back false start penalties near the end zone that effectively negated any chance of scoring a touchdown. However, outside of that drive, he has held his own. Webb has been the bottom-five LT I expected, but he has gone long stretches with playing adequately (obviously not in the Green Bay debacle). He might even be pushing his way out of that bottom-five range, but I don't think he's out of the woods just yet.
Tight Ends
Pre-Season Expectation: 4.0
Kellen Davis has had moments where he looks like an above-average NFL tight end given his blocking prowess and ability to use his body in the passing game. I thought he was ready to take the leap. Matt Spaeth is a reliable #2 with his good blocking and reliable hands. Kyle Adams barely made the roster, so expectations were low. I consider Evan Rodriguez a running back.
Current Evaluation: 2.0
Well, Davis simply has not improved his consistency at all. He began the season by badly missing a block against Indianapolis that led to a sack, and while he had made some nice catches - especially on an underthrown ball in Dallas where he stole an interception - I believe he has one drop in each game. Spaeth has been a non-factor in the passing game. While Adams has been a solid contributor, there's not much rescuing this unit by the third-stringer.
Wide Receivers
Pre-Season Expectation: 8.0
Despite off-the-field concerns, Brandon Marshall easily represents the best Bears wide receiver of my lifetime and quite possibly ever. With a formal diagnosis of his Borderline Personality Disorder, Marshall seems more confident and relaxed and should be in line for a great reunion year with Cutler. I loved Alshon Jeffery in college. After Cutler's injury caused the 2011 season to unravel, I was hoping we'd be able to get Jeffery with our first-round pick. We know what happened next: Jeffery put on 30 pounds, so Phil Emery traded up and scooped up a potential #1 WR in the middle of the second round. Tremendous value. And as the second or third banana, Jeffery should be great. Most importantly, he arrived on a veteran roster in a veteran position group where leadership should keep that should keep the weight from being an issue again. Earl Bennett is the safety valve, an exceptionally reliable receiver who occasionally produces big games (like 2011 in Philadelphia). He would have been a strong second option opposite Marshall; as the #3, he should have a huge season facing favorable matchups. Devin Hester, the former nominal #1, gets to slide into his best role as the fourth option. Hester can take 25 or 30 snaps each game, stretching the field and opening up underneath routes for the new big targets. Eric Weems should be primarily a special teams player. Dane Sanzenbacher likely isn't long for the roster. Johnny Knox seems highly unlikely to play this year.
Current Evaluation: 9.0
Marshall has, improbably, been even better than advertised. He is on pace for 112 receptions for 1,587 yards with 10 touchdowns. Marshall is at least a 9.5 on his own. It's still hard to believe he was acquired for just two third-round picks, even with his off the field issues. Jeffery has been excellent as well, particularly for a rookie starter, having lost those 30 pounds. Entering the bye, he is on pace for 45 grabs for 589 yards and six touchdowns. Unfortunately, Jeffery broke his hand catching his second touchdown of the season and he will be out until mid-November. Fortunately, the depth described above should significantly soften the blow as Bennett missed two games with a hand injury of his own but should return for the Monday night clash with Detroit. Obviously he has not produced much, but it's hard to fault him for an injury. Hester has produced roughly what one would expect from a fourth option, unsurprisingly having taken advantage of his speed to make the catch of the year thus far. Sanzenbacher and Weems have been non-factors as expected and hopefully Knox will be able to play football again. It's a shame that Knox is still injured as he'd be a real treat to throw into the passing game given the injuries.
Quarterbacks
Pre-Season Expectation: 7.0
I'm much higher on Jay than most football fans. Some of this clearly stems from my experience as a Bears and Penn State fan. When Daryll Clark (who I absolutely love) is the best quarterback I watched for a decade, Cutler seems like Joe Montana by comparison. Jay definitely has his faults: his extremely aggressive style of play often leads to interceptions and he has less-than-ideal leadership qualities. But overall, he's a tremendous asset, arguably the most important player on the team. He has the ability to make game-changing throws that few quarterbacks can make. He is a fierce competitor - for me, most expertly shown by his helicopter touchdown run against Detroit in 2009. And while he complains about his porous offensive line, it hasn't changed his style of play to the extent that it negates his best attribute: his ability to make big, downfield throws. He takes more hits than any other quarterback in the league in order to make the big pass, and I love him for that. I didn't want to see Jason Campbell, but his presence gave me comfort.
Current Evaluation: 7.5
The Packers have Jay's number. There's no way around that stinker of a performance. St. Louis was an underwhelming showing, although Cortland Finnegan's interception was hardly Jay's fault. His other three games have been masterpieces, especially Indianapolis. He'd have an even higher rating were it not for the terrible pick-six on opening day. Cutler has been the leader of (and reason for) the most productive Bears offense in many years. When he first came to Chicago, he was a good deep ball thrower. Now, he's very, very good. In a similar manner, when he arrived he was inconsistent, though hardly bad, on shorter passes; his consistency has improved dramatically. Cutler reliably turns in a couple of clunkers each season. Thankfully, he also turns in a number of games where he is the difference in a big win. He could absolutely improve on this rating by the end of the season.
Running Backs
Pre-Season Expectation: 9.0
Matt Forte is, and has been, an elite back. After ending last season with an injury but then finally getting paid, I expected great production from an inspired player. Michael Bush looked like a better version of Marion Barber. Evan Rodriguez looked to be a bit miscast as primarily a blocker, but he looks like a good athlete likely to contribute more than any statistics show. It seemed a bit tacky to cut Khalil Bell after he rejected a pay cut, but that's the nature of the business. Armando Allen getting beat out by Lorenzo Booker for the #3 job, then immediately making the team because of Booker's injury easily rates as the most bizarre off-season move. I didn't expect much from either.
Current Evaluation: 9.5
It has been almost impossible to tell that Forte suffered a severe knee injury last year. He has been strong and quick in his running. His pass catching is still tremendous as exemplified by his one-handed beauty against Indianapolis. It's difficult to name a back in the league I would unequivocally take over Forte at this point. He has exceeded my lofty expectations. Bush has exceeded my expectations even more. He has proved to be an excellent compliment to Forte and capable of carrying the full load. This isn't news but bears saying regardless: it's incredibly difficult to find a backup who can be a good feature back too. Allen has played sparingly, but ran well in the waning minutes of the Jacksonville game. He's primarily a special teamer still. Bell returned, but hasn't been a factor. Rodriguez looked very good in the first few games of his rookie year, but a non-severe knee injury kept him out for a few games. We'll see how he returns.
Kicker (include coverage unit)
Pre-Season Expectation: 9.5
Robbie Gould is the best Bears kicker ever. Naturally, I expect him to be among the top few kickers in the league. His placekicking is his calling card, and Dave Toub's coverage unit rarely struggles.
Current Evaluation: 10.0
Gould has been perfect. He hasn't missed a field goal. Just as importantly, in five games, only 11 of his kickoffs have been returned. Of those 11, the longest return allowed has been 28 yards, the second shortest long in the league. This unit cannot reasonably be expected to produce better than it has so far.
Kick Returners
Pre-Season Expectation: 8.0
Hester have never been as good returning kickoffs as he is on punts. Unfortunately, there aren't really other options on this roster. Still, he's Devin Hester. Operating full-time on kickoff returns in a Toub unit, he should be able to get one or two big ones.
Current Evaluation: 5.5
As a unit, they just haven't been all that productive. There's still plenty of hope given Hester and they have been middle-of-the-pack, not poor. Thankfully, with the frequency of touchbacks in the NFL now and the smothering play of the defense, the Bears return unit simply hasn't had a lot of opportunities. Hopefully that doesn't change.
Yet, I admit that in my push toward objectivity, I've found myself with less senseless hope for my teams. There's just something about looking through the Cubs' lineup before the season and being unable to convince myself that they can be competitive. It's a tough feeling but one I appreciate in that more realistic expectations enables me to be pleasantly surprised.
With that in mind, here's my look at the 2012 Bears through five games. I'll go position by position, first sharing my pre-season expectations on that position followed by my current thoughts on that group. In less-than-traditional fashion, I'm going to start on the lines and work away. Today I'll do the offense; tomorrow, the defense.
NOTE: I like to use a non-inflated grading scheme. I will be using a scale from zero to ten. For reference, zero represents abject failure, a unit that is clearly the worst in the league. Use the 2004 Bears quarterbacks for comparison, the incredible four-headed monster of Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel, Jonathan Quinn, and Rex Grossman that produced an incredible average game of 15.6 completions on 29.4 attempts with 0.6 touchdowns and 1 interception. On the other end of the spectrum, ten represents the 1985 Bears linebacking corps of Mike Singletary, Otis Wilson, and Wilbur Marshall, a unit that is decidedly the class of the league, a combination of big plays and consistency.
Offensive Guards/Center
Pre-Season Expectation: 3.0
I expected Roberto Garza to be a solid, average center. He has been a rock-solid contributor since he came over from Atlanta and should have another year or two of decent production. Lance Louis was a bit tougher to peg. I like Louis a lot, reasoning that he could be an average guard given the chance to blossom in the role. He was clearly outclassed as a tackle last year, but has shown plenty of encouraging signs inside. Chris Spencer, on the other hand, was the worst offensive lineman in all of football last season according to Pro Football Focus. He was bad enough that I expected him to lose his starting spot, and maybe even his job. Needless to say, I expected him to be horrific. When he won the left guard job coming out of camp, I was unhappy. I figured this would be one of the worst - but not the worst - position on the team.
Current Evaluation: 4.0
Garza and Louis have been difficult to notice, which is to say that they've largely done their jobs as interior linemen. If this was only evaluating those two, they'd likely be a 5.0 or 5.5. But Spencer got to play three games and produced predictably terrible results. Had I done this evaluation after the St. Louis game, the position group score would likely be a 2.5 or 3.0. But with two games of Chilo Rachal, the interior of the line has stabilized. Rachal is unlikely to be a special guard, but he's a great bet to represent a consistent improvement over Spencer. As such, this group is currently below-average, but not painfully so. At the same time, there's not much room for improvement. This unit deserves some credit for opening large running lanes in Jacksonville.
Offensive Tackles
Pre-Season Expectation: 1.5
I was still optimistic that Gabe Carimi could be an average right tackle in the NFL, but I also assumed he would experience some rookie growing pains after missing most of his rookie season with another knee injury. My optimism for J'Marcus Webb was substantially less. I don't begrudge Webb for being one of the few worst starting left tackles in the NFL; he's a seventh-round pick who was thrust right into a starting job on the offensive live's toughest spot. And it's not as if he's ever had an excellent left guard playing next to him. Nevertheless, the fact remains that Webb is easily one of the worst left tackles in the league and he is experienced enough that the massive improvement needed to make him approach average production just isn't coming.
Current Evaluation: 2.5
Carimi has been unspectacular at times, bad at others. He was particularly dreadful on the first drive of the third quarter in Jacksonville, committing a holding penalty, then back-to-back false start penalties near the end zone that effectively negated any chance of scoring a touchdown. However, outside of that drive, he has held his own. Webb has been the bottom-five LT I expected, but he has gone long stretches with playing adequately (obviously not in the Green Bay debacle). He might even be pushing his way out of that bottom-five range, but I don't think he's out of the woods just yet.
Tight Ends
Pre-Season Expectation: 4.0
Kellen Davis has had moments where he looks like an above-average NFL tight end given his blocking prowess and ability to use his body in the passing game. I thought he was ready to take the leap. Matt Spaeth is a reliable #2 with his good blocking and reliable hands. Kyle Adams barely made the roster, so expectations were low. I consider Evan Rodriguez a running back.
Current Evaluation: 2.0
Well, Davis simply has not improved his consistency at all. He began the season by badly missing a block against Indianapolis that led to a sack, and while he had made some nice catches - especially on an underthrown ball in Dallas where he stole an interception - I believe he has one drop in each game. Spaeth has been a non-factor in the passing game. While Adams has been a solid contributor, there's not much rescuing this unit by the third-stringer.
Wide Receivers
Pre-Season Expectation: 8.0
Despite off-the-field concerns, Brandon Marshall easily represents the best Bears wide receiver of my lifetime and quite possibly ever. With a formal diagnosis of his Borderline Personality Disorder, Marshall seems more confident and relaxed and should be in line for a great reunion year with Cutler. I loved Alshon Jeffery in college. After Cutler's injury caused the 2011 season to unravel, I was hoping we'd be able to get Jeffery with our first-round pick. We know what happened next: Jeffery put on 30 pounds, so Phil Emery traded up and scooped up a potential #1 WR in the middle of the second round. Tremendous value. And as the second or third banana, Jeffery should be great. Most importantly, he arrived on a veteran roster in a veteran position group where leadership should keep that should keep the weight from being an issue again. Earl Bennett is the safety valve, an exceptionally reliable receiver who occasionally produces big games (like 2011 in Philadelphia). He would have been a strong second option opposite Marshall; as the #3, he should have a huge season facing favorable matchups. Devin Hester, the former nominal #1, gets to slide into his best role as the fourth option. Hester can take 25 or 30 snaps each game, stretching the field and opening up underneath routes for the new big targets. Eric Weems should be primarily a special teams player. Dane Sanzenbacher likely isn't long for the roster. Johnny Knox seems highly unlikely to play this year.
Current Evaluation: 9.0
Marshall has, improbably, been even better than advertised. He is on pace for 112 receptions for 1,587 yards with 10 touchdowns. Marshall is at least a 9.5 on his own. It's still hard to believe he was acquired for just two third-round picks, even with his off the field issues. Jeffery has been excellent as well, particularly for a rookie starter, having lost those 30 pounds. Entering the bye, he is on pace for 45 grabs for 589 yards and six touchdowns. Unfortunately, Jeffery broke his hand catching his second touchdown of the season and he will be out until mid-November. Fortunately, the depth described above should significantly soften the blow as Bennett missed two games with a hand injury of his own but should return for the Monday night clash with Detroit. Obviously he has not produced much, but it's hard to fault him for an injury. Hester has produced roughly what one would expect from a fourth option, unsurprisingly having taken advantage of his speed to make the catch of the year thus far. Sanzenbacher and Weems have been non-factors as expected and hopefully Knox will be able to play football again. It's a shame that Knox is still injured as he'd be a real treat to throw into the passing game given the injuries.
Quarterbacks
Pre-Season Expectation: 7.0
I'm much higher on Jay than most football fans. Some of this clearly stems from my experience as a Bears and Penn State fan. When Daryll Clark (who I absolutely love) is the best quarterback I watched for a decade, Cutler seems like Joe Montana by comparison. Jay definitely has his faults: his extremely aggressive style of play often leads to interceptions and he has less-than-ideal leadership qualities. But overall, he's a tremendous asset, arguably the most important player on the team. He has the ability to make game-changing throws that few quarterbacks can make. He is a fierce competitor - for me, most expertly shown by his helicopter touchdown run against Detroit in 2009. And while he complains about his porous offensive line, it hasn't changed his style of play to the extent that it negates his best attribute: his ability to make big, downfield throws. He takes more hits than any other quarterback in the league in order to make the big pass, and I love him for that. I didn't want to see Jason Campbell, but his presence gave me comfort.
Current Evaluation: 7.5
The Packers have Jay's number. There's no way around that stinker of a performance. St. Louis was an underwhelming showing, although Cortland Finnegan's interception was hardly Jay's fault. His other three games have been masterpieces, especially Indianapolis. He'd have an even higher rating were it not for the terrible pick-six on opening day. Cutler has been the leader of (and reason for) the most productive Bears offense in many years. When he first came to Chicago, he was a good deep ball thrower. Now, he's very, very good. In a similar manner, when he arrived he was inconsistent, though hardly bad, on shorter passes; his consistency has improved dramatically. Cutler reliably turns in a couple of clunkers each season. Thankfully, he also turns in a number of games where he is the difference in a big win. He could absolutely improve on this rating by the end of the season.
Running Backs
Pre-Season Expectation: 9.0
Matt Forte is, and has been, an elite back. After ending last season with an injury but then finally getting paid, I expected great production from an inspired player. Michael Bush looked like a better version of Marion Barber. Evan Rodriguez looked to be a bit miscast as primarily a blocker, but he looks like a good athlete likely to contribute more than any statistics show. It seemed a bit tacky to cut Khalil Bell after he rejected a pay cut, but that's the nature of the business. Armando Allen getting beat out by Lorenzo Booker for the #3 job, then immediately making the team because of Booker's injury easily rates as the most bizarre off-season move. I didn't expect much from either.
Current Evaluation: 9.5
It has been almost impossible to tell that Forte suffered a severe knee injury last year. He has been strong and quick in his running. His pass catching is still tremendous as exemplified by his one-handed beauty against Indianapolis. It's difficult to name a back in the league I would unequivocally take over Forte at this point. He has exceeded my lofty expectations. Bush has exceeded my expectations even more. He has proved to be an excellent compliment to Forte and capable of carrying the full load. This isn't news but bears saying regardless: it's incredibly difficult to find a backup who can be a good feature back too. Allen has played sparingly, but ran well in the waning minutes of the Jacksonville game. He's primarily a special teamer still. Bell returned, but hasn't been a factor. Rodriguez looked very good in the first few games of his rookie year, but a non-severe knee injury kept him out for a few games. We'll see how he returns.
Kicker (include coverage unit)
Pre-Season Expectation: 9.5
Robbie Gould is the best Bears kicker ever. Naturally, I expect him to be among the top few kickers in the league. His placekicking is his calling card, and Dave Toub's coverage unit rarely struggles.
Current Evaluation: 10.0
Gould has been perfect. He hasn't missed a field goal. Just as importantly, in five games, only 11 of his kickoffs have been returned. Of those 11, the longest return allowed has been 28 yards, the second shortest long in the league. This unit cannot reasonably be expected to produce better than it has so far.
Kick Returners
Pre-Season Expectation: 8.0
Hester have never been as good returning kickoffs as he is on punts. Unfortunately, there aren't really other options on this roster. Still, he's Devin Hester. Operating full-time on kickoff returns in a Toub unit, he should be able to get one or two big ones.
Current Evaluation: 5.5
As a unit, they just haven't been all that productive. There's still plenty of hope given Hester and they have been middle-of-the-pack, not poor. Thankfully, with the frequency of touchbacks in the NFL now and the smothering play of the defense, the Bears return unit simply hasn't had a lot of opportunities. Hopefully that doesn't change.
Monday, October 8, 2012
Bears-Jaguars: Final Thoughts
It's always better to win going into the bye week.
Yet for the first 39 minutes of yesterday's contest in Jacksonville, the outcome was very much in doubt. The Bears staved off a potential halftime deficit with Corey Wootton's sack of Blaine Gabbert that resulted in a fumble recovered by Julius Peppers. The fumble enabled the Bears to keep the game tied. A rare, impassioned locker room speech by Lovie Smith clearly awakened the lethargic team.
In the second half, the offense scored on every possession. It was an offensive performance seldom seem by Chicago fans, the unit gelling at just the right time and individuals making standout plays. The numbers are incredible.
Jay Cutler followed up an uninspiring first half (10-for-20, 110 yards, INT) by playing possibly his crispest half of football in a Bears uniform, going 13-for-19 for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. Three passes stood out in particular: a dart on a scoring slant to Alshon Jeffery (on which Jeffery unfortunately fractured his right hand), a perfectly thrown go to Devin Hester (on which Hester made a great diving grab), and a perfectly thrown stutter-fade to Brandon Marshall for the knockout touchdown.
The passing game flexed its muscles against an over-matched Jacksonville defense. The offensive line protected Cutler in exactly the manner it should have against the anemic Jaguars pass rush. The pass catchers universally produced. Marshall had one of the best games ever of any Bears wide receiver. Jeffery fought for the aforementioned score. Hester made one of his best ever catches. Kellen Davis used his athleticism to make a pair of big plays. And Michael Bush brought down the house. While he only caught two passes, he made the most of them by converting a highlight reel third-and-15 play by hurdling an oncoming safety.
But it wasn't all about the passing. The offensive line and running backs pounded away on the weak defense. Even discounting Armando Allen's late 46-yard touchdown scamper, the unit produced 168 yards on 32 carries, good for a 5.25 average. Matt Forte ran as if his ankle injury was a distant memory. Michael Bush showed a power-elusiveness combination few expected he could provide. Even Cutler got into the mix with a pair of long scrambles, the second of which converted a key third-and-7 on the first possession of the second half.
But let's be honest: for the Chicago Bears, it starts and ends with defense. And this defense produced another dominating effort. Tomorrow, I'll look more fully at the unit's production so far this year. For now, suffice it to say that, after the lackadaisical first half, the entire group smothered the terrified Jaguars attack. Entering their final drive in which they produced 18 yards before the clock expired, Jacksonville had amassed an incredible 29 yards (27 on one run by Maurice Jones-Drew) and two touchdowns over their first five possessions of the second half. Only both touchdowns were scored by the Bears. The defensive effort simply defined domination.
Offensive Play of the Game
This is an easy choice for me. With the game still tied 3-3 and facing fourth-and-1 at the Jacksonville 45, Lovie Smith elected to go for it instead of punting the ball to pin the anemic Jaguars deep in their own end. Instead of placing the ball in the gut of Matt Forte or Michael Bush, Offensive Coordinator Mike Tice elected a more traditional downfield passing play. Although I was indignant during the play that Cutler didn't hit the running back as he freely released into the left flat, the quarterback athletically charged toward the line, drawing the pass coverage toward him. This action enabled Marshall to sneak in behind the linebackers. Cutler hit him with a dart, a 13-yard gain, and a big statement play (I wasn't a fan of the personal foul called on Jacksonville for a hit on Cutler; it looked to be reasonably timely and to Cutler's upper-torso, not his head). While I would have been frustrated, Lovie would have been justified in punting, reasoning that the Jacksonville offense was highly unlikely to put together a 70+ yard scoring drive. But the conversion changed the feel as the game as the Bears ended the drive taking a lead they would quickly expand.
Honorable Mention
Leading 13-3 and facing a third-and-15 play from Jacksonville's 36 on the penultimate play of the third quarter, Cutler took a shotgun snap and quickly checked down into the right flat to Bush. Bush then played the role of the more famous Bush running back in the NFL (Reggie) by running directly at the charging defender before perfectly timing a leap over the would-be tackler. The 15-yard gain was followed by an 11-yard run by Bush and then the 10-yard touchdown from Cutler to Jeffery that put the game out of reach at 20-3. Even though Jacksonville wasn't likely to put together two scoring drives in the fourth quarter, I couldn't help but remember the 2005 game in Cleveland. For those of you who successfully removed it from your brains, the Bears squandered a suffocating defensive performance by allowing two long Antonio Bryant touchdowns in the final 3:02 en route to a 20-10 loss. With one Michael Bush leap, my irrational fears subsided.
Defensive Play of the Game
This one was a bit tougher. But I love Peanut Tillman, so he takes the day. The play was part of a complete possession turned in by both the kick coverage unit (more on that below) and the defense. I discussed the Jacksonville formation on the play before the interception in my Second Half Thoughts post yesterday. Nonetheless, a quick reminder: Jacksonville had both tight ends on the left side of the offensive line, the second tight end covering up the first. Almost no NFL team voluntarily takes away an eligible pass catcher on a passing play. Julius Peppers read the formation, got out in front of Jaguars LT Eugene Monroe, and beat him to the point of attack, drawing a holding penalty. Pinned back by his own endzone and likely stiff from not having been on the field for around 45 minutes of real time (since the Wootton sack - see below), Gabbert took a shot down the sideline. Perfectly disguised coverage - and a horrible throw - made for easy pickings for Peanut, who easily intercepted the pass and weaved down the sideline for a two-score advantage. It was a great moment of a good team playing smarter than a poor team.
Honorable Mention
The aforementioned Corey Wootton sack/forced fumble that ended the Jaguars' last real scoring threat late in the first half. Wootton has since admitted that RT Cameron Bradfield leaned toward the outside prior to the snap, indicating that the pair would be matched up one-on-one on the play. Wootton got a tremendous jump on the play, beat Bradfield badly, and snuffed out the Jacksonville momentum.
Special Teams Play of the Game
Immediately after the Tillman interception return, Dave Toub's coverage unit stuffed Rashad Jennings on the ensuing kickoff return. Not only did Anthony Walters bring down Jennings at the 12-yard-line, the coverage team also drew a holding penalty, stuffing Jacksonville at their own 6 to start the drive. A false start penalty, incomplete pass, five-yard pass, and Lance Briggs sack later, the Jacksonville offense lost four yards on the possession. The coverage unit kept the proverbial petal to the metal, extending the momentum created by the offense and defense.
Honorable Mention
At the conclusion of a 40-yard drive in the first half after Jacksonville had tied the game at three, the Bears faced a fourth-and-5 from the Jaguars 40. Instead of risking a failed conversion attempt, the Bears sent Adam Podlesh and the kick coverage unit onto the field. Podlesh decidedly does not have football's strongest leg. But he's among the most accurate punters in the game. A high-arcing punt bounced nearly straight up into the air at the five-yard-line and was downed by special teams ace Eric Weems at the two. Although the Bears didn't capitalize on this change in field position, that type of play could have swung the game in a big way.
I'll be back tomorrow with some thoughts on the first quarter (plus a game) of the season.
Yet for the first 39 minutes of yesterday's contest in Jacksonville, the outcome was very much in doubt. The Bears staved off a potential halftime deficit with Corey Wootton's sack of Blaine Gabbert that resulted in a fumble recovered by Julius Peppers. The fumble enabled the Bears to keep the game tied. A rare, impassioned locker room speech by Lovie Smith clearly awakened the lethargic team.
In the second half, the offense scored on every possession. It was an offensive performance seldom seem by Chicago fans, the unit gelling at just the right time and individuals making standout plays. The numbers are incredible.
Jay Cutler followed up an uninspiring first half (10-for-20, 110 yards, INT) by playing possibly his crispest half of football in a Bears uniform, going 13-for-19 for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. Three passes stood out in particular: a dart on a scoring slant to Alshon Jeffery (on which Jeffery unfortunately fractured his right hand), a perfectly thrown go to Devin Hester (on which Hester made a great diving grab), and a perfectly thrown stutter-fade to Brandon Marshall for the knockout touchdown.
The passing game flexed its muscles against an over-matched Jacksonville defense. The offensive line protected Cutler in exactly the manner it should have against the anemic Jaguars pass rush. The pass catchers universally produced. Marshall had one of the best games ever of any Bears wide receiver. Jeffery fought for the aforementioned score. Hester made one of his best ever catches. Kellen Davis used his athleticism to make a pair of big plays. And Michael Bush brought down the house. While he only caught two passes, he made the most of them by converting a highlight reel third-and-15 play by hurdling an oncoming safety.
But it wasn't all about the passing. The offensive line and running backs pounded away on the weak defense. Even discounting Armando Allen's late 46-yard touchdown scamper, the unit produced 168 yards on 32 carries, good for a 5.25 average. Matt Forte ran as if his ankle injury was a distant memory. Michael Bush showed a power-elusiveness combination few expected he could provide. Even Cutler got into the mix with a pair of long scrambles, the second of which converted a key third-and-7 on the first possession of the second half.
But let's be honest: for the Chicago Bears, it starts and ends with defense. And this defense produced another dominating effort. Tomorrow, I'll look more fully at the unit's production so far this year. For now, suffice it to say that, after the lackadaisical first half, the entire group smothered the terrified Jaguars attack. Entering their final drive in which they produced 18 yards before the clock expired, Jacksonville had amassed an incredible 29 yards (27 on one run by Maurice Jones-Drew) and two touchdowns over their first five possessions of the second half. Only both touchdowns were scored by the Bears. The defensive effort simply defined domination.
Offensive Play of the Game
This is an easy choice for me. With the game still tied 3-3 and facing fourth-and-1 at the Jacksonville 45, Lovie Smith elected to go for it instead of punting the ball to pin the anemic Jaguars deep in their own end. Instead of placing the ball in the gut of Matt Forte or Michael Bush, Offensive Coordinator Mike Tice elected a more traditional downfield passing play. Although I was indignant during the play that Cutler didn't hit the running back as he freely released into the left flat, the quarterback athletically charged toward the line, drawing the pass coverage toward him. This action enabled Marshall to sneak in behind the linebackers. Cutler hit him with a dart, a 13-yard gain, and a big statement play (I wasn't a fan of the personal foul called on Jacksonville for a hit on Cutler; it looked to be reasonably timely and to Cutler's upper-torso, not his head). While I would have been frustrated, Lovie would have been justified in punting, reasoning that the Jacksonville offense was highly unlikely to put together a 70+ yard scoring drive. But the conversion changed the feel as the game as the Bears ended the drive taking a lead they would quickly expand.
Honorable Mention
Leading 13-3 and facing a third-and-15 play from Jacksonville's 36 on the penultimate play of the third quarter, Cutler took a shotgun snap and quickly checked down into the right flat to Bush. Bush then played the role of the more famous Bush running back in the NFL (Reggie) by running directly at the charging defender before perfectly timing a leap over the would-be tackler. The 15-yard gain was followed by an 11-yard run by Bush and then the 10-yard touchdown from Cutler to Jeffery that put the game out of reach at 20-3. Even though Jacksonville wasn't likely to put together two scoring drives in the fourth quarter, I couldn't help but remember the 2005 game in Cleveland. For those of you who successfully removed it from your brains, the Bears squandered a suffocating defensive performance by allowing two long Antonio Bryant touchdowns in the final 3:02 en route to a 20-10 loss. With one Michael Bush leap, my irrational fears subsided.
Defensive Play of the Game
This one was a bit tougher. But I love Peanut Tillman, so he takes the day. The play was part of a complete possession turned in by both the kick coverage unit (more on that below) and the defense. I discussed the Jacksonville formation on the play before the interception in my Second Half Thoughts post yesterday. Nonetheless, a quick reminder: Jacksonville had both tight ends on the left side of the offensive line, the second tight end covering up the first. Almost no NFL team voluntarily takes away an eligible pass catcher on a passing play. Julius Peppers read the formation, got out in front of Jaguars LT Eugene Monroe, and beat him to the point of attack, drawing a holding penalty. Pinned back by his own endzone and likely stiff from not having been on the field for around 45 minutes of real time (since the Wootton sack - see below), Gabbert took a shot down the sideline. Perfectly disguised coverage - and a horrible throw - made for easy pickings for Peanut, who easily intercepted the pass and weaved down the sideline for a two-score advantage. It was a great moment of a good team playing smarter than a poor team.
Honorable Mention
The aforementioned Corey Wootton sack/forced fumble that ended the Jaguars' last real scoring threat late in the first half. Wootton has since admitted that RT Cameron Bradfield leaned toward the outside prior to the snap, indicating that the pair would be matched up one-on-one on the play. Wootton got a tremendous jump on the play, beat Bradfield badly, and snuffed out the Jacksonville momentum.
Special Teams Play of the Game
Immediately after the Tillman interception return, Dave Toub's coverage unit stuffed Rashad Jennings on the ensuing kickoff return. Not only did Anthony Walters bring down Jennings at the 12-yard-line, the coverage team also drew a holding penalty, stuffing Jacksonville at their own 6 to start the drive. A false start penalty, incomplete pass, five-yard pass, and Lance Briggs sack later, the Jacksonville offense lost four yards on the possession. The coverage unit kept the proverbial petal to the metal, extending the momentum created by the offense and defense.
Honorable Mention
At the conclusion of a 40-yard drive in the first half after Jacksonville had tied the game at three, the Bears faced a fourth-and-5 from the Jaguars 40. Instead of risking a failed conversion attempt, the Bears sent Adam Podlesh and the kick coverage unit onto the field. Podlesh decidedly does not have football's strongest leg. But he's among the most accurate punters in the game. A high-arcing punt bounced nearly straight up into the air at the five-yard-line and was downed by special teams ace Eric Weems at the two. Although the Bears didn't capitalize on this change in field position, that type of play could have swung the game in a big way.
I'll be back tomorrow with some thoughts on the first quarter (plus a game) of the season.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)