These articles are fun. They're based primarily on analysis of player fit and team budgets, but in the end, it tends to come down to hunches. That's just fun.
So here we go. Here are my guesstimates for the top free agent landing spots, ranked in order of how good I think the players are and nothing else. The first dollar figure is only for guaranteed years; that is, any option buyout is not included in that figure.
1. SP David Price
Signing Team: Chicago Cubs
Contract Terms: 8 years, $216M
Notes: For quite some time, I have assumed that Price would land a 7-year deal worth either $182M or $189M. Max Scherzer effectively got a 7-year deal worth $170.4M last year, so that would be a big, market-setting jump for Price.
But now I think that I'm low, not necessarily on the AAV but on the total commitment. This deal lets Price secure the largest guarantee ever and it basically gives the Cubs a free year in the process. They could even structure the deal to give Price $210M over the first seven years of the deal with an extremely cheap eighth year tacked on.
It'll be a real fight between the Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Yankees, but in the end, I think Price rejoins Joe Maddon in pursuit of a ring.
2. SP Zack Greinke
Signing Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract Terms: 6 years, $168M plus mutual option for $30M ($7M buyout)
Notes: Greinke used his opt-out to create leverage, but it's darn-near impossible to envision the Dodgers letting him escape, especially not up the coast to San Francisco.
3. RF Jason Heyward
Signing Team: New York Yankees
Contract Terms: 10 years, $200M (with opt-out after year 5)
Notes: My least favorite contract of the offseason exclusively because of the opt out. I love Heyward and I'd love to see him join the Cubs. A 10-year, $200M deal would even be palatable. But not with the opt out. The opt out kills the deal, placing all of the risk on the signing club. Still, he makes sense for the Yankees with Carlos Beltran in his final year and Brett Gardner on the trade block. While the Yankees would prefer to spend next year to this year, this year's free agent class is overwhelmingly superior to next year's, so they'll have to pay a little extra tax in 2016 to get their man.
4. LF Alex Gordon
Signing Team: Kansas City Royals
Contract Terms: 5 years, $85M plus club option for $20M ($5M buyout)
Notes: In the end, Gordon gets a big guarantee but still gives the Royals a substantial discount in the range of 15-20%. It's still a good deal for him and the club.
5. SP Jordan Zimmermann
Signing Team: San Francisco Giants
Contract Terms: 6 years, $126M
Notes: The Giants have an incredible amount of money coming off of the books this year and next, so they use some of that cash to replenish their rotation. Zimmermann should add some surprisingly-needed stability to their rotation.
6. SP Johnny Cueto
Signing Team: Boston Red Sox
Contract Terms: 6 years, $140M
Notes: Cueto had a strange year, simultaneously solidifying his status as an ace and struggling mightily in Kansas City in a way that challenges his market. In the end, I think that he'll do just fine.
7. LF Yoenis Cespedes
Signing Team: San Francisco Giants
Contract Terms: 7 years, $150M
Notes: Remember that thing I said above about the Giants and all of their payroll space? Here goes the rest of it. Their lineup is deep and strong, but they don't have a monster power bat. Cespedes is a marvelous fit with Posey, Crawford, Belt, and Duffy. And perhaps a healthy Hunter Pence, too.
8. 1B Chris Davis
Signing Team: Baltimore Orioles
Contract Terms: 6 years, $135M
Notes: Davis is the premier power bat on the market, but his other limitations will keep him from pushing this contract higher. The Orioles have tons of free agents, but they also have a nice pile of cash with which to replenish their roster. Keeping Davis just makes sense.
9. SP Jeff Samardzija
Signing Team: Anaheim Angels
Contract Terms: 5 years, $90M
Notes: The Angels are a sneaky crappy team with Mike Trout propping them up for years. They desperately need to fill out their roster, and it's about time for Arte Moreno to throw piles of cash at his problems again. So here's a risky, high-upside pitcher.
10. LF Justin Upton
Signing Team: Chicago White Sox
Contract Terms: 7 years, $119M
Notes: I originally had Upton slated to the Cardinals, but the White Sox are desperate for offense and he's the best bat left.
11. 2B/LF Ben Zobrist
Signing Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Contract Terms: 4 years, $55M
Notes: Zobrist is perfect for the Cardinals, and this way they get to take a chance that he ages better than we might expect without sacrificing a boatload of cash to find out. I'm sure that they'll adore his flexibility.
12. SS Ian Desmond
Signing Team: San Diego Padres
Contract Terms: 6 years, $100M
Notes: The Padres desperately need to address their middle infield and taking a shot that Desmond's first half was a fluke is probably their best option. There's plenty of risk, but the reward is massive.
13. SP Yovani Gallardo
Signing Team: Baltimore Orioles
Contract Terms: 5 years, $80M
Notes: Gallardo is no ace, but he is extremely durable and extremely consistently good. That's going to get him paid.
14. CF Dexter Fowler
Signing Team: Texas Rangers
Contract Terms: 5 years, $70M
Notes: Cleveland is a bit of a dark horse here, but in the end, I think that the Rangers decide that they're ready to try having some offense in centerfield.
15. SP Wei-Yin Chen
Signing Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract Terms: 5 years, $65M
Notes: Chen has been very consistent in his time in the Majors. Given that the Mariners need a starter (or two) and consistently find themselves with Japanese pitchers on the roster, this union makes sense.
16. SP Scott Kazmir
Signing Team: Anaheim Angels
Contract Terms: 4 years, $55M
Notes: Kazmir is normally very good, but his second half with Houston was very poor in 2015. That hurts his earning power a bit. Joining the Angels' staff is a good fit for him.
17. SP John Lackey
Signing Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract Terms: 3 years, $42M
Notes: The Tigers need some starters. The steady Lackey would be a nice addition to their staff, particularly as some useful young arms bring their volatility to the staff.
18. SP Mike Leake
Signing Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Contract Terms: 6 years, $105M
Notes: Leake gets the Homer Bailey contract even though he's not as good. The Jays desperately need an arm, and if they strike out on the bigger names above, Leake is a decent enough fit.
19. 2B Howie Kendrick
Signing Team: Chicago White Sox
Contract Terms: 5 years, $70M
Notes: Kendrick would be a great solution to the second base position that has been an ongoing disaster for the ChiSox. He just hits.
20. OF Colby Rasmus
Signing Team: Cleveland Indians
Contract Terms: 4 years, $50M
Notes: Rasmus makes tons of sense for the Indians as they could use help in either center or right, and they even need help in left given the recent news of Michael Brantley's injury.
21. 2B Daniel Murphy
Signing Team: Anaheim Angels
Contract Terms: 5 years, $60M
Notes: Murphy is a solid, unspectacular guy. Given the Angels' recent production at the keystone, he would be a welcome addition.
22. C Matt Wieters
Signing Team: Atlanta Braves
Contract Terms: 5 years, $75M
Notes: This is an extremely risky contract, but it does make a good bit of sense. The Braves are clearing payroll space in anticipation of their move to a new stadium in 2017, but adding Wieters gives them a centerpiece, homegrown talent to sell to their fans. It also addresses a shaky catching spot. Wieters would likely command a lot more than this if he was healthy, but health issues have plagued him as of late. He's a tough free agent to peg.
23. SP Hisashi Iwakuma
Signing Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract Terms: 3 years, $40M
Notes: It's just tough to see him leaving.
24. RP Darren O'Day
Signing Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract Terms: 4 years, $30M
Notes: The Dodgers have boatloads of money and they sure seem like a good bet to spend some more of it. O'Day is a nice piece.
25. RP Tyler Clippard
Signing Team: Boston Red Sox
Contract Terms: 3 years, $21M
Notes: The Red Sox really need to find a strong arm or two for the back of their bullpen. Clippard doesn't overpower hitters, but his superb changeup has rendered him an extremely formidable reliever.
26. SP J.A. Happ
Signing Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract Terms: 3 years, $33M
Notes: Happ had the best run of his career in Pittsburgh this summer and the Bucs need to add at least one starter. It makes a lot of sense.
27. 3B David Freese
Signing Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Contract Terms: 3 years, $36M
Notes: Outside of a disastrous 2013 with the Cardinals, Freese has been consistently productive, basically an average third baseman, throughout his time in the Majors. Unfortunately for him, he didn't grab an everyday job until he was 28, so he's entering his age-33 season. He should get a nice deal and the Brewers have a gaping hole at third base. Just don't expect him to finish this deal in Milwaukee.
28. SP Marco Estrada
Signing Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Contract Terms: 4 years, $60M
Notes: Estrada was a scrap heap acquisition by the Blue Jays, but after his strong 2015, he's going to command a pretty penny. He's always struggled with home runs and his strikeouts have dissipated. This is the leading contender for worst contract of the offseason.
29. SS Asdrubal Cabrera
Signing Team: Oakland Athletics
Contract Terms: 1 year, $8M
Notes: The A's need to add another potential starter to their infield mix and Cabrera makes enough sense. He's not moving the needle much, however.
30. RP Joakim Soria
Signing Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract Terms: 3 years, $20M
Notes: The Tigers badly need Soria's relief production back. I've gotta think that they'll get him.
31. CF Denard Span
Signing Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract Terms: 3 years, $30M
Notes: The Mainers had a gaping hole in center field, so I think they'll take the plunge on Span's balky body.
32. SP Brett Anderson
Signing Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract Terms: 4 years, $60M
Notes: The D-Backs have oodles of cash to spend and a continuing need in the rotation. They'll spend it here.
33. SP Ian Kennedy
Signing Team: San Diego Padres
Contract Terms: 1 year, $15.8M
Notes: If there's any sanity in the world, Kennedy is accepting his qualifying offer and trying to reenter the market next year poised to make double what he'd make this year.
34. OF Gerardo Parra
Signing Team: Colorado Rockies
Contract Terms: 4 years, $44M
Notes: The Rockies need to add a complementary piece or two this winter to make it look like they're doing something. Enter Parra.
35. OF Nori Aoki
Signing Team: Tampa Bay Rays
Contract Terms: 2 years, $12M
Notes: The Rays have to be alarmed by Steven Souza's strikeout woes. Aoki's defense-first profile is a great fit for their club as he is likely to provide good value on this meager deal.
36. C Chris Iannetta
Signing Team: Miami Marlins
Contract Terms: 1 year, $7M
Notes: The Marlins make it look like they're kinda, sorta doing something.
37. CF Chris Young
Signing Team: Washington Nationals
Contract Terms: 2 years, $15M
Notes: The Nats need to add something to the mix, so taking a shot on Young's remaining upside is as good of an idea as any at this point.
38. SP Chris Young
Signing Team: Kansas City Royals
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M plus $7M club option with $1M buyout
Notes: Young has pitched his way into a guaranteed deal and he might leave a tiny bit of cash on the table to keep the band together in Kansas City.
39. OF Rajai Davis
Signing Team: Houston Astros
Contract Terms: 2 years, $10M
Notes: This is a great deal for Davis in his mid-30s. The Astros need to add this security blanket to their extremely young, volatile outfield mix.
40. SP Bartolo Colon
Signing Team: Houston Astros
Contract Terms: 1 year, $6M
Notes: Speaking of adding veteran security blankets...
41. SS Jimmy Rollins
Signing Team: New York Yankees
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: The Yankees likely want to add some insurance to Didi Gregorious and Rollins has the glove and cost that makes sense...if he's willing to accept a reduced role.
42. CF Austin Jackson
Signing Team: Cleveland Indians
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: I don't understand why so many writers think Jackson is getting a multi-year deal worth $10M+ per year. Yes, he's a strong defender in center field. But he hasn't hit for a year and a half. Non-hitting outfielders rarely get paid. He's a good fit in Cleveland.
43. SP Doug Fister
Signing Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract Terms: 1 year, $8M
Notes: Fister's velocity evaporated and he may very well be done. On the off chance that he isn't, heading to spacious PNC Park would be a great way to resurrect his career and hit the market again next winter.
44. SS Alexei Ramirez
Signing Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: The perfect rebound-and-flip candidate. And the Phillies can give him full-time plate appearances.
45. OF Steve Pearce
Signing Team: Colorado Rockies
Contract Terms: 1 year, $7M
Notes: Look, I'm not saying that Pearce has to go to the Rockies. I am saying that a bat-first player needing to rebuild value coming off of a miserable campaign should definitely call Coors home, even if he has to play first base.
46. SP Tim Lincecum
Signing Team: San Diego Padres
Contract Terms: 1 year, $3M (with boatloads of incentives)
Notes: Lincecum has struggled mightily for years now. Heading to PETCO to join a team in need of a cheap lottery ticket makes plenty of sense.
47. OF Alex Rios
Signing Team: Minnesota Twins
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: The Twins spent most of their cash on Byung-Ho Park (assuming that they agree to a deal with him), so Rios on a one-year deal is a fine addition. He buys them a few months while Byron Buxton continues to percolate, at which time Rios can be kicked to the bench or, if he produces, flipped for a helpful part.
48. OF David Murphy
Signing Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract Terms: 1 year, $4M
Notes: Murphy needs to find some plate appearances and the Tigers need to find some cheap options.
49. RP Ryan Madson
Signing Team: Chicago White Sox
Contract Terms: 3 years, $15M
Notes: The White Sox love paying for relievers and they need to find some this winter. Enter Madson, the formerly-great rehabilitation project from Kansas City.
50. 1B Mike Napoli
Signing Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract Terms: 1 year, $7M
Notes: Assuming that the Pirates non-tender Pedro Alvarez, they'll need a bat to throw at first base. Napoli would fit the bill assuming he isn't completely washed up.
*** SP Kenta Maeda
Signing Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract Terms: 6 years, $95M (plus $20M posting fee)
Notes: Though Maeda isn't technically a free agent, he is widely expected to be posted. In that event, the Diamondbacks have been connected to him for so long that it's truly difficult to imagine them not signing Maeda at this point.
There we have it. Some completely worthless guesses. But they were fun to make.
Incredibly, only two teams ended up without a top-50 free agent: the Reds (duh) and the Mets (huh?). It should be a fun winter!
