Hope Abounds Looking Toward the 2017 Chicago Bears

The 2016 Bears season is living on injured reserve. There's no way around that reality. It's true that this team never had the look of a juggernaut, but there were plenty of reasons to believe that an average-ish season was in the works, even a couple of game into the season. Of course, the injury bug bit. And then it bit and bit and bit some more.

Alas, many of the signs that Bears fans would have hoped to see in 2016 came to fruition. On the whole, the defense took a mighty step forward. Although forcing turnovers continued to be a bugaboo, pressure was much more frequent and consistent, and the linebacker play improved by leaps and bounds. The secondary remains an issue, at it has been since Peanut Tillman entered the twilight of his career.

Offensively, the drop from Adam Gase to Dowell Loggains has been as big as expected, and it has coincided with a notable downslope in Jay Cutler's career. Add in more injuries for Kevin White and Zach Miller plus an up-and-down year from Alshon Jeffery and you've got a poor passing attack. The running game, on the other hand, impressed.

With only draft positioning and prospect development to watch over the final games of 2016, let's look toward 2017 and what could be a special year for the Bears in the surprisingly mediocre NFC North.

Position by Position Roster Breakdown

As I've done in year's past, I'll go position by position. The "2017 Players" line item shows players currently under contract for 2017.

Specialists
Current Players: K Connor Barth, P Pat O'Donnell, LS Patrick Scales
2017 Players: K ???, P Pat O'Donnell, LS ???
Level of Need: 10

Analysis: On the whole, this unit has probably produced a bit better than expected in 2016. After veteran Robbie Gould was cast out in early September, Connor Barth came aboard and kicked exactly how a scrapheap kicker would be expected to kick. He should be replaced in 2017. Pat O'Donnell, on the other hand, has become one of the better punters in the NFL and has the look of a long-term piece. Patrick Scales has gone largely unnoticed, a compliment in his line of work.

Predicted Moves: Sign free agent kicker, whether a current starter like Steven Hauschka or Greg Zuerlein, or an undrafted rookie. Scales likely comes back.

Quarterback
Current Players: QB Jay Cutler, QB Matt Barkley, QB Brian Hoyer, QB David Fales
2017 Players: QB Jay Cutler, QB ???
Level of Need: 10!

Analysis: After eight straight seasons of knowing the quarterback, the Bears will head toward the 2017 season going back to the drawing board. Jay Cutler will almost certainly move on, leaving just $2M in dead cap space behind him (and lots of "what ifs" as well). Cutler's 2016 was a lost season, and Hoyer looked like Brian Hoyer always looks.

But Barkley was the real surprise. He showed more than enough to warrant a longer look, particularly given his pedigree as an elite prospect coming out of high school. What he lacks in arm strength he has more than made up for in ability to find the open man, no small feat given the bottom-of-the-barrel receiving corps that has played with him as a Bear.

Predicted Moves: The Bears will carry two quarterbacks next year. One will likely be Barkley, even though he is a free agent. The Bears will bring him back with a chance to start. The other? Look to the draft (more on this below).

Running Back
Current Players: RB Jordan Howard, RB Jeremy Langford, RB Ka'Deem Carey, FB Paul Lasike
2017 Players: RB Jordan Howard, RB Jeremy Langford, RB Ka'Deem Carey, FB ???
Level of Need: 1

Analysis: While Langford showed flashes in 2015, Howard proved to be "the guy" in 2016, earning a handful of carries early in the season before wresting the job away from Langford for good by midyear.

And he won it. Howard struggles mightily at catching passes out of the backfield, but even without that as part of his game, he has proven to have the vision and quickness to find space and get through it. The Bears found a keeper in the fifth round.

Predicted Moves: Given the other needs on the team, Howard and Langford stick around. Carey is a tossup as cutting him offers very little cap relief and he is a veteran special teams contributor. I expect that all three stay, though expect plenty of stories during camp next summer about an undrafted rookie pushing Carey for his roster spot.

Wide Receiver
Current Players: WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Kevin White, WR Eddie Royal, WR Marquess Wilson, WR Cameron Meredith, WR Josh Bellamy, WR Deonte Thompson, WR Daniel Braverman
2017 Players: WR Kevin White, WR Eddie Royal, WR Cameron Meredith, WR Daniel Braverman
Level of Need: 9

Analysis: Expected to be an explosive and encouraging group, the wide receiving corps instead starred as the biggest disappointment for the 2016 Bears. Jeffery had a middling campaign by his standards before receiving a four-game suspension for PEDs. White once again suffered a season-ending injury, this time a fractured fibula. Royal continued to miss time with less-extreme maladies, as did Wilson. Meredith impressed in spurts over the course of the season, earning a shot to return. Given oodles of playing time, Bellamy and Thompson helped visualize the notion of a replacement-level player for millions of football fans.

White showed some flashes of what made him an elite prospect in 2016 (including this great catch over Morris Claiborne), but not nearly enough of them. He'll have immense pressure on his shoulders in 2017 given that Jeffery is overwhelmingly likely to leave.

Predicted Moves: While I'd love to see the Bears keep him, it's highly unlikely that they'll make a play for Jeffery to remain in Chicago. His franchise tag salary would be $17.519M and his projected market value is a hair under $60M on a five-year deal. While I'd pay that were I Ryan Pace, I'm not. And I suspect that he won't.

It's very difficult to justify keeping Royal around, especially given that none of his $5M 2017 salary is guaranteed and he received no signing bonus. Accordingly, I expect that the receiving corps in 2017 will be comprised of White, Meredith, Braverman, a draftee, and a free agent. Arizona's Michael Floyd could be an attractive flyer candidate, though another recent DUI and subsequent release makes him less appealing. Fellow Rams Kenny Britt and Brian Quick could both fit as could a pair of young free agents in Buffalo's Robert Woods and Miami's Kenny Stills.

Tight End
Current Players: TE Zach Miller, TE Logan Paulson, TE Ben Braunecker, TE Daniel Brown
2017 Players: TE Zach Miller, TE Ben Braunecker, TE ???
Level of Need: 4

Analysis: Miller continued along his career path of flashing big-play ability while missing significant time with injury. Paulson served as a classic scrub blocking tight end. Braunecker and Brown both showed some flashes as youngsters with Brown in particular making some plays.

Predicted Moves: The list above is deceptive: Brown is an exclusive rights free agent, so he'll be back in 2017 provided that the coaching staff likes his work. I think that he's done enough, so he'll come back. I expect that the club will either add a high-ceiling draftee or a free agent in the Paulson mode, a blocking-first tight end with minimal contribution to the passing attack.

Offensive Tackle
Current Players: LT Charles Leno, Jr., RT Bobby Massie, OT Mike Adams
2017 Players: LT Charles Leno, Jr., RT Bobby Massie, OT ???
Level of Need: 10

Analysis: Leno is no star, but at least he's functional on the left side of the line, if routinely overmatched by the better pass rushers in the league.

But Massie? Massie has been a disaster in 2016, particularly when it comes to pass blocking. He simply doesn't move his feet quickly enough to keep up.

Adams got hurt because Adams get hurt.

Predicted Moves: The Massie signing is the worst blemish on Ryan Pace's record to date and he'll fix it this spring by jettisoning the failed signing, paying just a $1M cap hit. Leno sticks at LT for 2017, but a new LT prospect drafted in the first four rounds of the draft becomes the new starting RT and the heir apparent on the left side. The club signs an also-ran to be the swing tackle.

Guard
Current Players: LG Josh Sitton, RG Kyle Long, G Ted Larsen, G Eric Kush
2017 Players: LG Josh Sitton, RG Kyle Long, G ???
Level of Need: 0

Analysis: Sitton fell into the Bears' lap at the end of the preseason, and he has proved to be exactly the stabilizing force that the front office hoped for. Long played with a torn labrum before succumbing to a rather gruesome broken ankle, but neither injury figures to impact him for 2017 and beyond. This is a foundational position for the roster.

Predicted Moves: It's possible that a late-round developmental pick gets added or that an undrafted rookie makes the club here. That's about it.

Center
Current Players: C Cody Whitehair, C Hroniss Grasu
2017 Players: C Cody Whitehair, C Hroniss Grasu
Level of Need: 0

Analysis: The need here should be less than zero. Grasu showed some decent flashes as a rookie, but when he vacated his spot in his second season, Whitehair grabbed the reins and appears unlikely to give them back. Whitehair has emerged as an above-average starter as a rookie. Even if he never improves, he'll be a big piece for this franchise.

Predicted Moves: None.

Nose Tackle
Current Players: NT Eddie Goldman, NT Will Sutton
2017 Players: NT Eddie Goldman, NT Will Sutton
Level of Need: 3

Analysis: Goldman has been a stud when on the field thus far, but he hasn't remained on the field in a full-time capacity yet. He has the chance to be a foundational player if he can stay healthy.

Sutton has reached scrub status at this point.

Predicted Moves: It's definitely time to add a real backup in the interior, even if it's just a late-round pick, unless Sutton takes a big step forward in the offseason.

Defensive End
Current Players: DE Akiem Hicks, DE Jonathan Bullard, DE Cornelius Washington, DE Mitch Unrein, DE CJ Wilson
2017 Players: DE Akiem Hicks, DE Jonathan Bullard, DE Mitch Unrein, DE ???
Level of Need: 7

Analysis: Hicks has blossomed into an impact presence on the defensive line, proving to be a big-time asset in run defense with average-or-better production as a pass rusher. He seems headed for a bigger contract in the next 15 months.

Unfortunately, Bullard has squandered an open opportunity as a rookie, failing to pass Washington or Unrein on the depth chart. The Bears need Bullard to develop after sinking a third-round pick into him last May.

Washington represents an interesting case, an undersized 4-3 defensive end coming out of college who has bulked up enough to spend about a third of the team's snaps at 3-4 defensive end.

Predicted Moves: Washington comes back on an inexpensive one-year move and continues to push Bullard for playing time. The trio of Hicks-Bullard-Washington makes up 85% of the snaps at defensive end next year.

Outside Linebacker
Current Players: OLB Pernell McPhee, OLB Lamarr Houston, OLB Willie Young, OLB Leonard Floyd, OLB Sam Acho
2017 Players: OLB Pernell McPhee, OLB Lamarr Houston, OLB Willie Young, OLB Leonard Floyd
Level of Need: 6

Analysis: What a strange group! Floyd has leaped past my expectations for him to become an impact player on the edge, though his run defense will continue to need work in the coming years.

Young earned himself a contract extension and continues to generate pressure.

However, this group is seen heavily through the lens of McPhee and Houston, the club's marquee free agent additions in back-to-back offseasons. Both have struggled to stay on the field. When healthy, Houston is a rotational player whereas McPhee shows continued impact.

Predicted Moves: There's basically no way that both McPhee and Houston are on the roster next year. I suspect that Pace will be more willing to eat $1.98M to cut Houston than $1.5M to give up on his own signing, McPhee. While Floyd-Young-McPhee would form a solid true, the edge rushing position is essential to the 3-4, so I won't be surprised if the club continues to add on the outside, especially considering that there are some attractive free agents available.

Inside Linebacker
Current Players: ILB Danny Trevathan, ILB Jerrell Freeman, ILB Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB Christian Jones, ILB John Timu
2017 Players: ILB Danny Trevathan, ILB Jerrell Freeman, ILB Nick Kwiatkoski, ILB John Timu
Level of Need: 1 (or 6)

Analysis: Trevathan and Freeman were a sight for sore eyes running around the interior of the defense, making tackles and punishing ball carriers. Unfortunately, between injury and suspension, they struggled to stay on the field together in 2016. Kwiatkoski underwhelmed me when I saw him, but his grades suggest that he showed flashes.

Predicted Moves: The need at this spot depends on the health of Trevathan's knee following his gnarly patellar tear. If Trevathan can reasonably be expected to come back healthy in 2017, there's no need to add. But if he's going to need two seasons to make it back, the club might need to grab a short-term fix. I'll guess that no additions are made.

Cornerback
Current Players: CB Tracy Porter, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Sherrick McManis, CB Deiondre' Hall, CB Bryce Callahan, CB Cre'von LeBlanc, CB Johnthan Banks, CB DeVante Bausby, CB Jacoby Glenn
2017 Players: CB Tracy Porter, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Sherrick McManis, CB Deiondre' Hall, CB Cre'von LeBlanc, CB DeVante Bausby
Level of Need: 8

Analysis: This is a very strange group. Porter's production receded somewhat in 2016, a not-unexpected development, but there's still enough there for him to be a #2/#3 corner. Fuller couldn't get on the field -- nominally due to a knee injury -- and it seems as though the Pace/Fox regime is not in his camp. McManis was a core special teamer.

Then we get to the youngsters. Some of them showed flashes at various times -- particularly LeBlanc -- but none were particularly encouraging with their play. There's plenty of room for growth with them, but a competing team cannot afford to cycle through low-level prospects in the hope of striking gold once.

Predicted Moves: Callahan is an exclusive-rights free agents, so he'll likely be back. LeBlanc has earned a crack at some playing time and Hall showed some ability when on the field. Nevertheless, this group desperately needs a new "top dog," and I suspect that one of Trumaine Johnson, Prince Amukamara, Captain Munnerlyn, Stephon Gilmore, and AJ Bouye will be brought in to help solidify the group, likely at a hefty cost in the case of Johnson or Bouye. Knowing that the Bears thought that they had secured the services of Janoris Jenkins last offseason, I suspect that they'll be the leading suitor for Johnson.

Safety
Current Players: FS Adrian Amos, FS Demontre Hurst, SS Deon Bush, SS Harold Jones-Quartey, SS Chris Prosinski, SS DeAndre Houston-Carson
2017 Players: FS Adrian Amos, SS Deon Bush, SS Harold Jones-Quartey, SS DeAndre Houston-Carson
Level of Need: 10!

Analysis: Yikes. I maintain the belief that Amos can be a high-functioning member of a strong secondary, but he was arguably the Bears' best defensive back in 2016, a role that he is nowhere near qualified to occupy.

Of the youngsters, Bush looked completely lost and may have a difficult time hanging onto his roster spot in 2017. Jones-Quartey can probably stick as a solid reserve. Unfortunately for Houston-Carson, he missed most of his rookie season, a crucial year for a late-round pick, especially considering that an opportunity for playing time was at his fingertips.

Predicted Moves: Even more than cornerback, I expect that the Bears will target a playmaker at safety and nobody fits that bill better than Chiefs safety Eric Berry. Berry is closely associated with the Kansas City club, but he just finished playing under the franchise tag and may very well hit the market. If he does, the Bears will be at his doorstep.

While his name doesn't carry as much weight, Arizona's Tony Jefferson could be just as impactful in the back end, though he is more of a strong safety than a ball hawk. Jefferson may very well find himself the recipient of the franchise tag, but if he hits the market, he'll be another strong option.

Salary Cap Status

Even without considering possible cuts, the Bears figure to have a boatload of salary cap space in 2017. As it currently stands, the club has approximately $117,569,093 in salary committed for next year, including cap holds for empty roster spots that will be filled. Add in $738,046 of dead money (a figure certain to grow), an $800,000 practice squad, and $10.6M as a hold for the draft class and the adjusted spending amount jumps to $124,307,139. Even if the cap is set at the league's lowest projected figure of $166M, the Bears would have $41,692,861 of cap space next year. But then the club's rollover from 2016 has to be figured in, adding an additional $8,333,377 to the cap for total space of $50,026,238.

Reason for Hope

To me, there is one substantial reason for hope: Ryan Pace. Pace has shown a real aptitude to find talent in the draft. I'm not one to believe that certain general managers have a magic touch or anything akin to that, but some do have an uncanny ability to strike out on draft weekend. Pace does not appear to fit into that bunch.

His 2015 class features no true duds. It's true that injuries have rendered the class grade incomplete, with White, Goldman, and Grasu all missing significant time due to ailments, but when on the field, all three have shown flashes of being real contributors. Add in that Langford and Amos have shown near-starter abilities as later picks, and the class looks solid, even with Tayo Fauluje no longer with the team.

The 2016 class, however, has the look of an impact group that can form the foundation of a winner. To my surprise, Floyd has materialized into an impact player on the edge, not only rushing the passer with vigor but also showing such tremendous awareness in the run game so as to serve as an asset there as well. Whitehair has quickly established himself as one of the better centers in the league, a huge asset. Kwiatkoski has shown signs of being a starter. Hall has made plays. And Howard has emerged as a true feature back as a rookie.

It's not all rosy, of course. Bullard and Bush both need additional growth, particularly off of the field. Houston-Carson needs to be healthy to get reps. And Braverman couldn't crack his way into a woefully inept wide receiving group. But on the whole, the 2016 class looks tremendous for Pace.

In free agency, Pace's experience has been night and day.

2015 showed the perils of filling out a roster with free agents. McPhee has proved to be the premium talent Pace desired, but his numerous injuries have severely limited his overall impact. Royal has largely been a bust due to his inability to stay on the field, and Antrel Rolle was an even bigger bust as he was both on his last legs and repeatedly injured. Not to mention that Ray McDonald experience.

2016 has looked great, however. Hicks, Freeman, and Trevathan all excelled as new members of the defensive front seven, and all three did so on eminently reasonable contracts. Young's extension immediately looked like a great deal as well. Pace was ready and willing to pluck Sitton hours after Green Bay mysteriously cut him loose. Massie was the only true bust of the 2016 haul.

In two years, Pace has added an immense amount of talent to the roster without saddling the club with any bad deals. That's the mark of a man on a mission to build a winner. The offensive line and the defensive front seven have paid particular dividends to date.

Moves for 2017
Alright, the fun part. Here is a look toward the 2017 roster, starting with the players I expect to be cut/traded, moving to free agency, and wrapping up with a projected draft class. Here goes...

Cuts/Trades

Cut/Trade #1: Bears cut/trade QB Jay Cutler
The cap hit is the same either way: $2M of dead money. It's worth it. The Cutler era is over and he doesn't appear to be an upgrade over Matt Barkley at this point. Time to change the locker room, turning it over to the offensive linemen and defensive front seven. If Cutler is, in fact, traded, I expect the return to be no better than a fifth-round pick.

Cut/Trade #2: Bears cut/trade OLB Lamarr Houston
I can't imagine that Houston has much of a market, so let's just call this a cut. Injuries ruined Houston during his time in Chicago. $1.98M will hit the cap.

Cut/Trade #3: Bears cut/trade WR Eddie Royal
Royal couldn't stay healthy, and even when he was on the field at the end of 2016, he didn't look much better than the also-rans that the club played on any given gameday. With no dead money on his deal, this is an easy choice.

Cut/Trade #4: Bears cut/trade RT Bobby Massie
Massie was an elite college prospect who has parlayed that into an extended look in the NFL. It was a worthy gamble for Pace to take in 2016, but it didn't work out. It would be a mistake to give Massie another year to make good on the deal, especially with only $1M of dead money.

Non-Cut/Trades: Bears KEEP OLB Pernell McPhee and CB Tracy Porter
I expect some debate about whether either of these players should return in 2017, but I'd keep both. McPhee has shown impact ability and the Bears certainly have plenty of cap space to keep him around for another year to see if his knee is healthy. Obviously he should go if the knee is shot, but I lack that knowledge. Porter was banged up all year in 2016, but he could still be a nice part of a revamped secondary at a relatively meager cost ($4.05M). I'd take the shot.

Free Agents

*NOTE: Before delving too deeply into this, it's worth pointing out that I'd re-sign Alshon at his market rate in a heartbeat. But since I expect Pace to let him walk, I'll have him walk in this scenario. Also, whenever I discuss "base salaries" below, I'm really discussing annual base salaries and non-guaranteed bonuses like workout and roster bonuses.

Free Agent #1: Bears sign QB Matt Barkley to a 1-year, $4M deal
I won't pretend to have a real feel for Barkley's market, but I suspect that only one or two teams would actually consider giving him a shot to start in 2017. The Bears sure look like one of them. He's shown enough to warrant a longer look, particularly on a team without another obvious solution. And I'd much rather roll with Barkley than pay a hefty premium for Jimmy Garoppolo or Kirk Cousins - I don't think that there's all that much of a difference.

Free Agent #2: Bears sign FS Eric Berry to a 5-year, $55M deal
It would set a new market record for a safety. That's where the Bears are. Following the template of the Harrison Smith deal adjusted upward for inflation, it'd include a $12.5M signing bonus and approximately $35M guaranteed. Berry would have approximate annual salaries of $7M, $7.5M, $8M, $8.5M, and $11.5M.

The deal would certainly represent a significant risk, but I'm confident that both Pace and John Fox recognize the urgent need facing the secondary.

Free Agent #3: Bears sign WR Robert Woods to a 4-year, $30M deal
Woods isn't a game-changer like Jeffery is, but he's a solid #2 receiver. Given the Bears' reliance on White to be their new #1, it's important to bring in a reliable pass catcher like Woods who has only missed a handful of games in his career. This deal would likely include a first-year roster bonus in lieu of a signing bonus, something that a younger free agent like Woods would likely be amenable to (he turns 25 in 2017). Let's say a $5M bonus with annual salaries of $3M, $5M, $7M, and $10M with $13M guaranteed. The guarantee may be a little light here, but it doesn't seem wildly off, either.

Free Agent #4: Bears sign OLB Jarvis Jones to a 1-year, $3M deal
Jones has largely been a bust to date, but there's enough athleticism there that a change of scenery would make a flyer worth it.

Free Agent #5: Bears sign CB Trumaine Johnson to a 5-year, $70M deal
Johnson may not have the name value of Josh Norman or Richard Sherman, but he has been the best player of the bunch recently. The play of Janoris Jenkins in New York has likely only intensified the Bears' interest to make a big splash at corner.

This would be the marquee move of the offseason. I'd expect a combination of signing and roster bonuses in play. Let's say a $10M signing bonus and a $6M year-one roster bonus in a deal that guarantees $41M with annual base salaries of $3M, $11M, 12M, $13M, and $15M.

Free Agent #6: Bears sign DE Glenn Dorsey to a 2-year, $12M deal
Dorsey is old, but he's a strong 3-4 DE and I have to imagine that he's desperate to get out of the dumpster fire in San Francisco. This relatively modest deal would add a nice player to the line. Let's say a $3M signing bonus and base salaries of $3.5M and $5.5M.

Free Agent #7: Bears sign QB Brian Hoyer to a 1-year, $2M deal
It was half-decent the first time, so let's run it back.

Other Free Agents: swing OT (like Marshall Newhouse), reserve TE (like Larry Donnell), situational 3-4 DE (Cornelius Washington), cheap K (like Greg Zuerlein), LS (Patrick Scales comes back)
I've allotted modest amounts to these types of players, only some of whom make the final roster. This simple deals all matter. The one-year amounts (bonus+base):

Newhouse: $1.5M
Donnell: $2M
Washington: $1M
Zuerlein: $1M
Scales: $0.69M

This apparent shopping spree isn't actually all that far removed from how Pace has operated to date, picking a couple of solid players on less-than-gigantic deals to fill holes while making a big splash (in this case, two) to fill huge needs with impact players.

Draftees

The most fun. The Bears have seven selections in the draft, with two coming in the fourth round as a result of a draft day deal in 2016 but no sixth-round pick due to the Khari Lee trade.

At present time, the picks appear as though they will be approximately as follows:

#4
#36
#68
#104
#111 (from Buffalo)
#143
#225

It's a solid group of picks that will be expected to add multiple starters to the roster.

#4
It's a biggie, the highest Bears draft pick since the club foolishly chose Cedric Benson in 2005. In my eyes, the contenders are strong. Texas A&M OLB Myles Garrett is the dream, but he is unlikely to be available at #4. Notre Dame QB DeShone Kizer would likely be my pick, but I doubt that Kizer lasts to #4 with both Cleveland and San Francisco picking atop the draft. I'm not as high on North Carolina QB Mitch Trubisky, but I understand the basic appeal given his accurate arm. He does look an awful lot like Matt Barkley to me.

In the end, I suspect that Garrett and Kizer go 1-2 in some order, leaving the Bears with their pick of the litter following Jacksonville's choice. I think that the decision will come down to Alabama DE Jonathan Allen, Tennessee OLB Derek Barnett, or Alabama OT Cam Robinson. I love me some defensive linemen, but the need at offensive tackle is immense, as is Robinson's pedigree. It just makes too much sense. I the end, I think that OT Cam Robinson is the pick.

#36
A lot of attractive possibilities will be on the board atop the second round, as always. Iowa CB Desmond King would be a nice grab. WRs John Ross (Washington) and Curtis Samuel (Ohio State) would add an explosive playmaker to the offense, albeit an undersized one. If Western Michigan WR Corey Davis slips, I imagine that he'll be the pick here. If Trevathan's knee remains a big concern, Ohio State ILB Raekwon McMillan would fill a need.

The real wild card is Clemson QB Deshaun Watson, who seemingly could go in the top ten or in the third round. I'd love to see the Bears take a shot on Watson, but for now, I'll assume that the Fox/Pace regime avoids such a risk.

I'm going to go in a different direction here. As the Bears move toward more of a run-heavy approach offensively complemented by a stingy defense, they figure to find themselves in more formations featuring two tight ends. The cupboard is bare at that spot, and with Miller routinely hurt, an infusion of talent is necessary. Accordingly, the Bears nab Robinson's teammate, Alabama TE O.J. Howard, to be an explosive option to help out on offense.

#68
In this mock draft, the Bears can't find a quarterback in the first round because Kizer is gone and Trubisky isn't worth it. The third round, however, could still offer a chance at a big-play starter: Texas Tech's Pat Mahomes. The drawbacks are real: Mahomes plays in a spread offense, he's a good-but-not-great athlete, he's more prone to risks than most teams want, and his mechanics oftentimes get away from him. In fact, it's rare that he uses a clean delivery.

However, the upside is immense in much the same way as it was with Cutler coming out of Vanderbilt. Mahomes has a tremendous arm and does a great job of keeping his eyes up field, despite playing behind a truly poor offensive line. I could see the appeal. But I don't think that Pace will take the risk.

The options available in the early third round are enticing beyond Mahomes. Michigan has a pair of prospects in that spot -- CB Jourdan Lewis and TE Jake Butt -- that would make sense, though I don't think much of Lewis. There are numerous wide receivers available in this area of the draft with Ohio State's Noah Brown standing out for his combination of size and quickness, although he remains a bit raw. Notre Dame 3-4 DE Jarron Jones would be a good fit. Clemson CB Cordrea Tankersley would provide a big-bodied outside defender, though his stock has slipped some in 2016 and I question his speed. UConn's Jamar Summers would fit the bill, too, though without quite as much size.

All of the above is moot, however, if Wisconsin's T.J. Watt slips to the early third. In that instance, the Bears would be wise to take the plunge and go after the one-year starter with elite bloodlines. Here, OLB T.J. Watt is the pick.

#104
The early fourth round will be crucial for the Bears in the 2017 draft. The club needs to hit on at least one of its draftees in order to effectively fill out the roster. As is always the case outside of the top of the draft, the options are seemingly endless.

But I'll spare you that discussion here. My hope is that Mississippi State WR Fred Hill makes it to #104 and that the Bears scoop him up if he does. Hill's combination of flexibility, size, and sneaky speed makes me think of a bigger/slower Johnny Knox or a smaller Alshon Jeffery. That player would be a no-brainer for any club. The pick is WR Fred Hill.

#111
The pick acquired from Buffalo feels like a nice bonus this year, and I'd like to see the Bears use it on a high-ceiling talent. To me, that takes the form of Tennessee ILB Jalen Reeves-Maybin. Reeves-Maybin comes with a legitimate injury concern, having lost much of his senior season to a biceps subluxation, and he's genuinely undersized at just 6'0", 225-lbs. However, his speed is fantastic and he is a big hitter, an excellent combination in the middle of the defense. He could learn from Freeman about being an undersized linebacker before taking Freeman's job down the line. I'd be all over ILB Jalen Reeves-Maybin if he is available.

#143
After neglecting the offensive tackle position for years, it's time for the Bears to be serious about it. Accordingly, here's the hope that they go after UCLA LT Conor McDermott, who, despite being a bit more raw than is desirable, comes with great athleticism as a former basketball player in a 6'9", 310-lbs body.

#225
There are always lots of options for filling out the roster, but given the Bears' lack of talent at wide receiver, a flyer on Miami WR Stacy Coley seems prudent. Although Coley lacks elite speed or much size, he has excellent body control and strong hands. That's a nice starting kit.

Undrafted Free Agent of Note
The Bears desperately need to find a return man. Syracuse WR Brisly Estime has only one path to the league, but his punt returning skills will give him a shot. Accordingly, he should be a target, even if it means a roster with only three running backs and even though Estime would be a long shot to crack the roster.

Final Roster
After all of those machinations, the club would have the following 54-man group to start the 2017 season (I'll let you all decide who of Jones-Quartey, Houston-Carson, and Bush doesn't make it):

QB (2): Matt Barkley, Brian Hoyer
RB (3): Jordan Howard, Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey
WR (6): Kevin White, Robert Woods, Cameron Meredith, Daniel Braverman, Fred Hill, Stacy Coley
TE (4): Zach Miller, O.J. Howard, Larry Donnell, Daniel Brown
OT (4): Cam Robinson, Charles Leno, Jr., Marshall Newhouse, Conor McDermott
OG (2): Josh Sitton, Kyle Long
C   (2): Cody Whitehair, Hroniss Grasu
NT (2): Eddie Goldman, Will Sutton
DE (5): Akiem Hicks, Glenn Dorsey, Jonathan Bullard, Mitch Unrein, Cornelius Washington
ILB (4): Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Nick Kwiatkoski, Jalen Reeves-Maybin
OLB (5): Leonard Floyd, Pernell McPhee, Willie Young, Jarvis Jones, T.J. Watt
CB (7): Trumaine Johnson, Tracy Porter, Kyle Fuller, Sherrick McManis, Deiondre' Hall, Cre'Von LeBlanc, Bryce Callahan
S (5): Eric Berry, Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, Deandre Houston-Carson, Deon Bush
K (1): Greg Zuerlein
P (1): Pat O'Donnell
LS (1): Patrick Scales

There we have it. That roster would still have approximately $36,310,291 of cap space, even accounting for the dead money mentioned above and the practice squad. The lines would be substantially better under this scenario, even after their 2015 improvement.

Go Bears.

Should Washington Have Made the College Football Playoff over Penn State?

Let me start this post by laying out a few matters:

1. I would have narrowly ranked Michigan ahead of Penn State based on my own evaluations of the teams, but I appreciate that the Committee values specific criteria in comparing similar teams in a way that heavily favored Penn State. I've addressed the PSU v. UM debate with fun, spirited conversation over the last week on Facebook. I'll leave it there.

2. This piece isn't sour grapes. Penn State gave up control of their own fate when they lost to Pittsburgh, and they were completely at the mercy of the football gods when they lost a second September contest.

3. I have no idea how this post will end up - I haven't fully researched the matter yet - so you'll find out how this debate gets settled right along with me.

OK. So here's the deal. Washington made the College Football Playoff over Penn State this year. Both teams won their respective conferences, two of the three best conferences in college football on the season. Of course, Washington lost only one game on the season whereas Penn State lost two, but much has been made of their respective non-conference schedules. Seeing as both teams lost at least one game, point #2 above dictates that neither team should be immune from slipping out of the top four.

I'd like to examine their respective schedules to see whose resume ends up looking stronger. When evaluating squads, I'm heavily partial to S&P+ and, to a lesser degree, the Sagarin ratings, so I'll be ranking teams based on their S&P+ location.

My thought for this exercise is to find the most comparable opponents for each of Penn State and Washington to see how the teams performed against said competition, taking the location of the game into consideration. Without further adieu, here we go.

To start off, we'll take the two most directly comparable games:

Rutgers
Washington beats #120 Rutgers 48-13 (home)
Penn State beats #120 Rutgers 39-0 (away)

This doesn't tell us squat. Next please.

Conference Championship Game
Washington beats #17 Colorado 41-10 (neutral)
Penn State beats #16 Wisconsin 38-31 (neutral)

There's no denying that Washington's win over Colorado was more impressive - in terms of domination and control - than Penn State's win over Wisconsin. It's worth noting that Sefo Liufau's injury severely impacted the game for the Buffaloes, but not so much that it fully explains the gaps between the teams.

Washington takes a lead.

Comparable Ranked Conference Foes
Washington beats #21 Stanford 44-6 (home)
Penn State beats #20 Iowa 41-14 (home)

Again, nearly identical results. Let's keep moving.

Comparable Terrible Conference Foes
Washington beats #89 Arizona State 44-18 (home)
Penn State beats #87 Maryland 38-14 (home)

It's almost creepy how similar these results are.

Comparable Terrible Conference Foes Part 2
Washington beats #100 Arizona 35-28 in OT (away)
Penn State beats #108 Purdue 62-24 (away)

One team took care of business. Another team needed an overtime score and stop to win the game against one of the worst D-I teams.

Any lead that Washington had in our comparison by virtue of their more impressive conference championship game showing is out the window at this point and Penn State likely takes a slight lead.

Home Game Against Crappy Non-Conference Opponent
Washington beats #96 Idaho 59-14 (home)
Penn State beats #113 Kent State 33-13 (home)

Washington makes up a bit of ground here, but comparing the virtues of various three-touchdown home wins against bad opponents is likely a fruitless activity.

To avoid any accusation of bias, let's call the squads even to this point.

Road Game Against Mediocre Conference Opponent
Washington beats #56 California 66-27 (away)
Penn State beats #48 Indiana 45-31 (away)

Washington's win here is certainly more impressive, though again the needle only moves a hair given the caliber of the opponents and the multi-touchdown victories.

Home Game Against Mediocre Conference Foe
Washington beats #62 Oregon State 41-17 (home)
Penn State beats #54 Michigan State 45-12 (home)

The needle stays steady, perhaps lilting ever so slightly toward the Huskies.

Tight Game Against Solid Conference Opponent
Washington beats #40 Utah 31-24 (away)
Penn State beats #37 Minnesota 29-26 in OT (home)

Washington's win is more impressive given that the game was on the road, but one-score victories against comparably ranked conference opponents won't move the needle a ton toward the Huskies.

Road Game Against Regional School Enjoying Strong Season
Washington beats #33 Washington State 45-17 (away)
Penn State LOSES to #26 Pittsburgh 39-42 (away)

The needle has jumped toward the Huskies in a meaningful way. While Pitt was a bit stronger than Washington State this year, Washington enjoyed a comfortable win while the Nittany Lions suffered a close loss.

It'll take something drastic to move the needle back toward Penn State.

Something Drastic
Washington LOSES to #8 USC 13-26 (home)
Penn State beats #3 Ohio State 24-21 (home)

In home games against supremely talented top-10 opponents, the Nittany Lions win while the Huskies lose by two touchdowns.

Comparing these last two bunches makes the evaluation difficult to be sure, but while I'm inclined to put the Nitts slightly ahead given the monumental nature of a win over Ohio State, a playoff-bound squad, I'll put the teams level again.

***It's worth taking a moment to address the fact that not everybody will treat the teams listed above in the same way that I have and that's fine. Perhaps you think Penn State's production was a bit more impressive through those ten games. Maybe you think Washington looks a hair stronger.

It doesn't really matter. The teams are tightly packed at that point.

I bring this up because the comps fall apart at this stage. I'll try anyway.

Early-Season Game Against Regional Foe
Washington beats #69 Oregon 70-21 (away)
Penn State beats #18 Temple 34-27 (home)

Washington's victory over Oregon really opened some eyes. Of course, we now know that this year's Oregon team imploded, finishing last in the Pac-12 North division. The win looks far less impressive with that knowledge.

Conversely, Penn State's tight win over Temple in September was a cause for alarm for most Nittany Lions fans. In retrospect, it was a good win over a Group of 5 conference champion.

Is it better that Penn State narrowly beat a good team or that Washington throttled a crappy one on the road? I'm partial to wins against good teams, but the degree of Washington's win should mean that Penn State only takes the narrowest of leads over the Huskies with one game to go.

The Other Game
Washington beats N/A Portland State 41-3 (home)
Penn State LOSES to #2 Michigan 10-49 (away)

Well this is the debate now, isn't it? Washington played a dreadful Portland State squad that went 3-8 in the FCS's Big Sky Conference. Penn State played an elite Michigan squad in Ann Arbor and got absolutely blasted. Setting aside whether it should be relevant that Penn State played the game without any of its starting linebackers (and then lost two more in the first half), which is a better bullet point on a resume?

I understand the arguments on both sides of the table. Washington won and wins are better than losses. Washington hasn't yet played a top-five team, so they should get a chance to. Conversely, Penn State shouldn't be punished for losing more games given that they played a bevy of tougher opponents. Penn State's ability to beat an elite team should give them a shot against another elite team. There's some merit to all of these notions.

In the end, Washington played one top-10 opponent, going 0-1. Penn State played two top-10 opponents, narrowly defeating Ohio State and getting obliterated at Michigan.

Washington played three top-30 opponents and went 2-1 in those games, crushing both Colorado and Stanford while losing handily to USC. Penn State played six top-30 opponents and went 4-2 in those games, crushing Iowa, narrowly defeating Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Temple, narrowly losing to Pittsburgh, and getting blasted at Michigan.

When I compare the resumes, I'm partial to Penn State's. I know that there's implicit bias in my brain. I also appreciate that I have a hard time evaluating how the Nittany Lions getting absolutely eviscerated by the Wolverines fits into all of this given that contenders so rarely have such a galling blemish on their resumes.

Still, give me a team that has played tougher competition throughout the year and looks as good or better than a team that has played easier foes.

Thankfully for Penn State fans, the consolation prize for missing the playoff is an idyllic afternoon in Pasadena to kick off the new year. While I'd rather see my team win a national championship, a Rose Bowl is truly the next best thing. Gotta find a way past the red-hot Trojans now.

(Belated) Thoughts on the Bears after a Frustrating Season-Opening Loss in Houston

***I wrote this piece two weeks ago but due to an issue with scheduling elsewhere, I'm posting it now. I promise that it hasn't been updated in the interim (which will be obvious given no mention of an injury to Danny Trevathan).

Entering the 2016 Bears season, the range of possible outcomes for the team was rather significant, with experts forecasting a subpar season resulting in a top-10 pick in the 2017 draft at one end and a playoff appearance at the other. Every team enters each season with a certain amount of unknown variables that will impact the final product on the field, but in year two of the Ryan Pace/John Fox regime, the Bears featured an elevated amount of uncertainty.

While the teams' season-opening 23-14 defeat at the hands of the Houston Texans was a disappointing way to open the 2016 campaign, it offered up an opportunity to glean additional information about the rebuilding process and to see how well Pace's acquisitions fit inside of Fox's system.

Not every game teaches us something about every position group. For example, Sunday's game told us very little about the Bears offensive line. They struggled mightily to contain the Houston front, but every offensive line in the league will have their hands full facing elite talents like J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus, and Vince Wilfork. The fact that the recently-shuffled Bears unit struggled isn't particularly newsworthy; we'll learn much more about the line in future weeks.

With all of that in mind, here are five things we learned about the Bears from their Week One contest.

1. New offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains likes run-pass balance

This may have been the big surprise of the game to me, even if it isn't stunning in retrospect.

Until the final drive of the first half in which the Bears quickly marched 75 yards on three big throws despite having just 40 seconds with which to work, Loggains had dialed up 10 running plays versus 12 pass plays. The expected stars of the Chicago offense are the quarterback and his pass catchers, yet Loggains seemed determined to run the ball consistently, even though those 10 first-half rushes netted just 25 yards.

In my view, Loggains somewhat stubbornly stuck with the run in the second half, even though it wasn't working all that well. From the start of the second half until the Bears took possession at the 6:10 mark of the fourth quarter with a multi-score deficit, Loggains called exactly nine runs and nine passes. There was no problem with the balance of his play calls. Unfortunately, the execution let him down somewhat.

Those nine running plays netted 35 yards. While the passing offense didn't do much better in the second half, struggling with sacks and a costly interception, the running offense didn't fail for lack of opportunity. The offensive line and Jeremy Langford got a big chance in a tight road game and largely whiffed, picking up just 60 yards on those 19 rushing attempts.

It will be interesting to see if Loggains sticks with that balance, particularly with a primetime home date forthcoming against the Philadelphia Eagles and their undermanned, undersized cornerbacks who seem ripe for picking on with Alshon Jeffrey and Kevin White.

2. The new Bears linebackers will be easy to root for as the heart and soul of the defense

After years of bottom-of-the-barrel linebacker play, the Bears coaching staff had to be ecstatic watching Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman making plays all over the field against the solid Houston offense. Trevathan, the team's biggest offseason acquisition, proved his mettle, often finding himself in the middle of the action. While he will never have the elite athleticism of a Brian Urlacher or Navorro Bowman, Trevathan has played like a borderline star for a few years now, giving him a path to Pro Bowl consideration. His skills were evident on Sunday.

But the big surprise was Freeman, a free agent who seemingly fell through the cracks when the Indianapolis Colts failed to make him a competitive offer this spring. The Bears scooped him up for a relatively paltry $6 million guarantee and just $12 million total over three years. Advanced metrics at Pro Football Focus have been confused by Freeman's play in past years, grading out as a plus pass defender prior to 2015 who struggled against the run and then flipping those rates last season, grading as an elite run-stuffer who struggled in pass coverage.

On Sunday, the Bears got the best of both Freemans as he was credited with a league-high 17 tackles in the opening week, in addition to defending a handful of passes in the flat. He was in on dozens of plays, and I cannot remember a play in which he was badly out of position. His superb debut is a credit to Pace, Fox, and the defensive unit headed by coordinator Vic Fangio.

Both Trevathan and Freeman impressed on Sunday, and their sure-tackling tendencies seemed to permeate the defense that allowed very little in the way of yards-after-catch yardage, save for a beautifully designed and called screen pass to speedster Will Fuller.

3. John Fox and his conservative tendencies will be tough to support at times

You all know the scenario: on what turned out to be their only trip into Houston territory in the second half, the Bears faced a fourth-and-two opportunity on the Texans' 38 nursing a one-point lead with about eight minutes left in the third quarter. As a road underdog in a surprisingly tight game, either going for it or attempting a long field goal seemed to be the obvious choices, yet Fox chose to punt. The Texans next draft stalled quickly but a booming Shane Lechler punt led to the Bears taking over on their own 14 for their next drive; the Texans followed with a 64-yard game-winning touchdown drive.

I ascribe to the analytics argument that teams should almost always go for it in fourth-and-one situations and that fourth-and-short in opposing territory is a definite scenario for taking a shot. Even if Fox felt uncomfortable with his struggling offense, giving Connor Barth a chance at a 55-yard kick inside of a dome should have been a worthy alternative. While 55-yard field goals aren't gimmes, the payoff was worthwhile in a game where points were at a premium.

The decision to punt was a deflating one to me, though I can't speak to how it impacted the players. I suspect that this won't be the only time this year that Fox coaches passively, preferring to put his stop unit on the field over taking a chance with his inconsistent offense.

4. Both Akiem Hicks and Jonathan Bullard flashed the ability to be real assets on the defensive line

After last year's group of defensive ends led by Jarvis Jenkins, Will Sutton, and Mitch Unrein were thoroughly outplayed over the course of the season, Pace decided to throw some real assets at the position group, investing a third-round pick in Bullard and a $5 million guarantee in the massive Hicks as part of a two-year, $10M deal. With Jenkins gone in free agency, Sutton inactive, and Unrein now a reserve, the early returns for the 2016 group were promising if imperfect.

Hicks made a number of impact plays, including forcing a Lamar Miller fumble on a play in which he blew past his man to disrupt the run in the backfield. Bullard had a number of plays in which he was blocked out of position, but he complemented those snaps with a handful of plays featuring excellent edge-setting and pursuit, helping to limit Miller's second-half effectiveness over 17 generally solid snaps.

A finally-healthy Cornelius Washington got in on the fun too with 14 defensive snaps. After tallying just 88 total defensive snaps over the previous three years, the injury-prone contract-year end needs to make an impression. If nothing else, Sunday was a start.

5. Leonard Floyd might be an even bigger liability in run protection than previously feared

Full disclosure: I was not a fan of Floyd's in the pre-draft process, nor did I think that drafting him was a good move.

Floyd was drafted by the Bears because of his elite quickness and plus agility on the age, traits that should enable him to get to the quarterback as he settles into the NFL's pace of play. Unfortunately, whereas some players hold their own as they develop, Floyd was completely overwhelmed in his debut. Over the course of 60 snaps, Floyd was routinely pancaked or blocked so far out of the play that he was nearly erased from the screen of the television broadcast.

His quickness was on display in the crunching sack he shared with Eddie Goldman, but the coaching staff may have a difficult time justifying an every-down role for Floyd until he adds another 20 or so pounds to his frame (assuming that's possible).

As was my concern at draft time, there's reason to doubt Floyd's ability to gain weight. Rivals.com listed Floyd at 220 pounds as a recruit. In his three years at Georgia, he was listed at 220, 220, and 231 pounds according to the school's official media guide. This summer, ESPN's Jeff Dickerson reported that Fangio expects Floyd to play between 230 and 235 pounds, so the Bears don't seem to forecast Floyd putting on much weight, if any at all.

That's problematic. The Floyd who played in Houston this week was completely overmatched in the running game to the extent that it would be difficult to characterize him as anything other than a situational pass rusher. There's certainly time for him to grow both in weight and ability, but the concern about Floyd is very real.

In the end, we learned quite a bit about the Bears in Week One, some of which was good and some of which wasn't. As we look to Week Two, I'll be paying particular attention to the offensive line, second-year wide receiver White, and tight end Zach Miller.

This should be a better test of just how good the 2016 club can be.

Buffoonery at the Big House: Musings on James Franklin's Disastrous Showing and what it Means for Penn State Football

I really need a spot to spit out my thoughts from today, so this is it.

Growing up in Michigan with a bunch of Michigan fan friends while also being a Penn State fan in the Internet age, Penn State and Michigan are the two teams with which I have the most familiarity. I'm engaged in watching their games and talking with others who watch them as well. I follow their recruiting efforts. I have a feel for their coaching staffs. Put it all together and I have a pretty good grasp on the two squads.

So, before I get going, for posterity's sake, here was my prediction for the game (from Facebook on 9/23/16):

Kevin Anderson Matt McMurry Sam Martin Alright guys, I picked Michigan to beat Nittany 34-6 before the season started. With three more weeks of evidence, I'm revising my pick to.....

48-6 Wolverines. Puke.

Michigan's line play will dominate Nittany's on both sides of the ball. To make matters worse, all three Penn State starting linebackers are either out or seriously hobbled. Nyeem Wartman-White is out for the year with a knee injury, Jason Cabinda is unlikely to play with an arm injury, and even if he does suit up, he'll be well less than 100%. Brandon Bell could hypothetically play, but he's been on crutches for weeks, so like Cabinda, even if he plays, he'll be operating at much less than capacity.

So let's see: weak interior defensive line + no linebackers --> Michigan is going to run at all. And Nittany has no pass rush. Put it together and Michigan is going to score at will.

Nittany's offensive skill players aren't any worse than Michigan's -- Nittany has a strong veteran receiving core + a really good pass-catching tight end + a solid recruit as a first-year starter at QB + a potential All-American running back (also injured - missed half of last week's game before busting out a beauty of a TD run to seal the game) -- but Nittany's O-Line is still a mess, so none of the above really matters all that much against Michigan's strong defensive front. Peppers might have a good game, but it doesn't matter. The D-Line will dominate for Michigan. It'll be an unpleasant day for Trace McSorley.

On the bright side: Penn State has an awesome new freshman punter, so at least they'll be able to punt the ball far away from their own goal line!

I'll never have another one this accurate in my life and that's just fine with me.

Onto the thoughts...

1. There's a great chance that James Franklin's timeout in the third quarter will be the last image of the Franklin era for me.

Down 28-0 on the road as a 19-point underdog facing a 4th-and-goal situation from the Michigan 3 in the 3rd quarter, Franklin inexplicably sent out the field goal unit to turn a four-score game into a...well, still a four-score game. Hard to get much worse than that, right?

Well, Franklin managed to pour a little salt in the wound, streaming down the sideline to call a timeout just before the play clock expired to turn a 20-yard field goal attempt into an impossible 25-yard field goal attempt. Never mind that Penn State kicker Tyler Davis hasn't missed a field goal attempt in 12 career tries (or an extra point in 10 attempts): it is never worth a timeout to avoid the downside risk of turning a 20-yard attempt into a 25-yard attempt. Never. The Michigan fans around me speculated that Franklin changed his mind and had to go for it given the insanity of calling for that kick, but I assured them that he'd still attempt the field goal. Sure enough, the kicking unit trotted back out to embarrassingly reduce the deficit by a negligible amount. So many egregious errors on one simple play.

It reminded me of what I thought would have been the worst clock/timeout management I've ever seen which occurred during Franklin's last trip to the Big House in 2014. Trailing 16-13 with 2:31 remaining, Christian Hackenberg was sacked on a 3rd-and-19 play to set up a 4th-and-32 situation for Penn State at their own 3. Penn State had two timeouts remaining.

Take a moment to think about what you'd do in this situation.

Now think of the worst possible alternatives to your plan.

Got 'em? Now prepared to be dumbfounded even further by what Franklin did.

The end of the sack play was at the 2:23 mark of the game. After allowing about 20 seconds to run off of the clock, Franklin sends out the punt team. The clock continues to run as Penn State is missing a member of its punt unit. The play clock gets down to one. Remember: Penn State is facing 4th-and-32 from its own 3. What does Franklin do? Call a timeout. Stomach punch. Naturally and sanely, Franklin has his center then snap the ball out of the back of the endzone to set up an onside kick. When the onside kick failed, Penn State had just one timeout left with only 1:39 remaining, effectively sapping the team of the chance to get another desperation possession. As it turned out, Penn State recovered the onside kick but an exceptionally tight (and possibly incorrect) offside call negated the recovery.

I honestly don't know which set of decisions was worse, but it doesn't really matter. Both were inexcusably inept.

2. I expected Penn State's defensive line to be significantly overmatched against Michigan's experienced offensive line, but "manhandled" says it better

Solid redshirt junior end Garrett Sickels had a couple of nice plays, but he was routinely chipped and double-teamed early, with Michigan opting to neutralize Sickels and force Penn State's other linemen to make plays. Given that the other linemen were as follows, can you blame them?

- Redshirt senior two star DE Evan Schwan
- Redshirt junior low three star DT Parker Cothren
- Redshirt freshman low three star DT Kevin Givens (recruited as a linebacker but playing DT at 275 pounds due to a lack of bodies)

The reserve linemen basically didn't get on the field all that much with the exception of redshirt sophomore end Torrence Brown, who looked fast but woefully undersized. Redshirt freshman end Ryan Buchholz, the other premium but raw talent in the group, did get a few snaps as well.

The defensive line penetrated on maybe ten percent of the drop backs and only came somewhat close to sacking Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight on one occasion in the entire game. A clean, steady pocket for any opposing quarterback is a recipe for disaster.

For good measure, the defensive linemen combined for one tackle for loss, an excellent play on which the quick Brown snuffed out an end around to speedy Michigan freshman Eddie McDoom for a five yard loss. But that's it. The defensive line just got obliterated.

3. Penn State's linebacking situation is laughably sad

At the beginning of the season, this group lacked depth but looked strong in the starting lineup with redshirt senior Nyeem Wartman-White leading the charge, true senior Brandon Bell (a former All-Freshman All-Big-Ten performer), and junior Jason Cabinda looking like a steadying force in the middle.

Of course, none of the three dressed in Ann Arbor (and Wartman-White is out for the year), so Penn State rolled with true sophomore and good recruit Manny Bowen, true sophomore and OK recruit Jake Cooper, and walk-on junior Brandon Smith.

But it gets worse. In the second quarter, Smith was called for an obviously incorrect targeting penalty and ejected. His replacement? Redshirt freshman walk-on Jan Johnson, a player who quit the football team mid-season last year to join the wrestling team and wasn't even listed on the three-deep depth chart. Obviously I couldn't make that up. Sadly, Johnson lasted all of a series or two as Johnson blew out his knee. His replacement? 215-pound freshman Cam Brown. Yikes.

To be fair, Bowen was all over the place in the first half, making numerous plays as the linemen generously allowed Michigan ball carriers to get to the second level on most plays. Bowen looked like a real piece.

Sadly, the other players looked like the combination of walk-ons and freshmen that they are. Not a plays being made there.

4. Penn State's defensive backs played a strong game given ample opportunities

This wasn't a surprise to me as I expected this unit to be the strength of the defense this season. Sadly, #1 corner Grant Haley missed the game, though his presence could hardly be sad to have impacted the outcome. Starter John Reid had an up-and-down afternoon, but the truly promising corner combination was junior Christian Campbell and redshirt sophomore Amani Oruwariye, both of whom made a handful of impressive breakups and tackles.

Unsurprisingly, redshirt senior safety Malik Golden played another solid game and junior Marcus Allen was excellent, making a slew of sure tackles in the open field and breaking up a couple of Michigan running plays.

5. Joey Julius isn't all that accurate when kicking the football, but that kicker sure knows how to lay a hit!

What a shot on Jourdan Lewis' kickoff return!

6. Speaking of Michigan's kickoff returns, Jim Harbaugh is insanely competitive, something that often works to his advantage and sometimes burns him badly

Harbaugh is building the program in his incredibly intense image and he's not going to stop because it works (nor should he). Sadly, that means that the starting defensive backfield is all on the kickoff return unit and that decision will cost Jeremy Clark his season as he was curiously blocking with a four touchdown lead when his ACL got popped. Michigan will thrive with Harbaugh's insanity, but it does come with a cost.

7. The ineptitude of Penn State's offensive line is difficult to comprehend and much more alarming that the Penn State defensive line's failures

The defensive line returned only Sickels and lost its other three members to the NFL (Austin Johnson, Carl Nassib, and Anthony Zettel). That's a big loss.

The offensive line? The current starters are the expected starters, yet they were completely dominated all afternoon by the Michigan defensive front. This makes some sense when we consider that:

- LT Brendon Mahon is a guard, playing tackle only out of necessity (Mahon was a big recruit)
- RT Andrew Nelson was a decent recruit and has played decently
- C   Brian Gaia was a decent recruit
- LG Ryan Bates is a redshirt freshman who needs about 25 more pounds
- RG Derek Dowrey was a two star defensive tackle recruit who switched sides last year when Penn State was out of guards

Problem is, there are enough pieces there to form a competent unit. Yet, the Penn State offensive line has been completely incompetent for 17 games and counting. That's not good at all.

Michigan's defensive line is spectacular. Obviously Rashan Gary has the most notable pedigree, but Taco Charlton will be in an NFL camp next year, and Michigan threw three redshirt senior linemen at an overmatched offensive line. The results were predictable.

And that's before we talk about senior defensive tackle Maurice Hurst. That guy is going to play on Sundays next year and he's got a real chance to be some team's top pick. His acceleration and quickness were elite and he played with plenty of power. Extremely impressive. The subpar Nittany line had no answer for him.

8. The Harbaugh v. Franklin matchup is probably the biggest coaching advantage Michigan will have this year

It was on display early and often today, especially with Harbaugh coaching aggressively as a three-touchdown home favorite and Franklin cowering at the opportunity to make moves.

9. I was very interested to see what Wilton Speight had to offer, but I came away very unimpressed

As I mentioned above, Speight's pocket was remarkably clean all game. I cannot remember a single designed rollout from the Wolverines. Harbaugh ran a simple offensive with a traditional pocket passer and dared the Penn State defense to get home. They never did.

Speight's running ability and, more particularly, his feel for when to tuck the ball and run was surprisingly strong.

But the passing itself? It was poor. He missed numerous open receivers and may have actually missed every throw he attempted while throwing on the run. He somehow managed to throw 13 incompletions without being hit once. That should be tough, especially given that he only attempted one downfield pass.

I'll be surprised if Speight doesn't cost Michigan a game at some point this season with his lacking arm strength and hitchy delivery that gets the ball out very slowly. His lack of pop was noticeable in pre-game warmups, especially compared to the rockets from John O'Korn, and that soft-tossing delivery carried over into the game.

Then again, Jake Rudock looked poor for two months last year and then turned it on in a big way. Who knows?

As for Trace McSorley, I don't know if he's any good and I likely won't find out anytime soon. He's just a guy running for his life.

10. Saquon Barkley is a treat

Seriously. He's a star. What a superb back.

As my cousin pointed out, Barkley had 132% of Penn State's total offense in the first half (not a typo). He was the vast majority of Penn State's passing and rushing offenses. He made a little something out of nothing, and a lot out of a little something. Just a special player. I hope he stays healthy for the next year and a half before enjoying a long NFL career.

11. Also a treat: Penn State punter Blake Gillikin

Yes, Jabrill Peppers enjoyed an electrifying 53-yard punt return of Gillikin's first punt (on which Peppers appeared to have been tackled by a turf monster), but Gillikin's kick was amazing. Penn State was on their own 1, so Gillikin had to kick a one-step punt. The play is almost always for the punter to boom the deepest kick he can and hope that the coverage unit does a decent job. What did Gillikin do? Hit a 61-yard one-step punt. Wowzers. His subsequent punts?

- 46-yard punt, 1-yard return (Peppers caught as he ran out of bounds)
- 44-yard punt, no return
- 35-yard punt, no return (out of bounds at the 20)
- 41-yard punt, no return (downed at the 8)
- 43-yard punt, no return

It sucks when your punter is the star of the game, but hey, it beats the crap out of your punter sucking, too. Gillikin was a sight to behold.

12. Has any player ever made a better choice to go pro than Christian Hackenberg did last year?

In the immediate aftermath of the departures of left tackle Donovan Smith and head coach Bill O'Brien, Penn State's ineptitude along the offensive line reached a season-killing level last year in week one when the Lions allowed ten sacks to Temple. Simply put, the unit hasn't gotten any better. Had Hackenberg stuck around for another year, he only would have dropped further in the draft. It wasn't ideal, but getting out when he could looks prescient for Hackenberg.

13. I don't think there is a player on the Penn State roster who will play a college football game in January in the future

It's really tough to have much of anything in the way of hope for a program that is so sloppy. I'm sympathetic to the fact that the decimated 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes are severely negatively impacting the program at this point. But the 2014 class was a deep and solid class (ranked 25th) that features this team's juniors and redshirt sophomores, and the 2015 class has a number of current contributors. The problem is obvious, though: there weren't impact line recruits on either side of the ball in those classes with the exception of colossal whiff Paris Palmer, and the true freshman linemen who are big enough to play somehow haven't been able to wrestle playing time away from the current abominable linemen. That doesn't speak well for the future.

Add it all up and with Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State all still looking strong (save for Tyler O'Connor), Penn State will have a very difficult time winning more than seven games for years. That won't get it done. When another coaching change gets factored in, it could be well into the next decade before Penn State plays another meaningful January game. Gulp.

14. A quick note on the officials

The targeting call was awful. As bad as you'll see.

I'm still not sure what the refs saw in not overturning Harbaugh's challenged spot on McSorley's fourth quarter keeper. McSorley was about 3/4 of a yard short, yet the refs allowed the spot to stand. What's the point of review if such an obvious errors cannot be corrected?

Michigan fans around me wanted Christian Campbell to be called for pass interference on Speight's deep wheel to Jehu Chesson in the fourth quarter, but the no-call was correct. Paradoxically, Campbell was far enough out of position to continue running toward Chesson, throw up his arm, and deflect the ball away all before making contact with Chesson. He was way out of position, but just close enough to be able to recover. Sports, man. Of course, Karan Higdon ran for a 40-yard touchdown on the next play, so it didn't much impact the outcome.

I couldn't believe the refs didn't flag Malik Golden for a late hit on Ty Isaac near the end of the game when Golden hit Isaac three steps after Isaac went out of bounds. Perhaps they didn't care much at that point. Again, no impact on the outcome.

Finally, I was very surprised that Michigan cornerback Channing Stribling wasn't called for unsportsmanlike conduct after a nice third down pass breakup against Chris Godwin. McSorley threw a fade toward Godwin, who got his hands on the ball before Stribling fought with him, forcing the ball out. As Godwin lay on the ground, Stribling stood over top of him and made repeated throat-slashing gestures. I didn't think guys could get away with that anymore. No sour grapes here - I was just surprised.

15. Michigan once again has a stable of running backs

They were very impressive on the whole, led by De'Veon Smith's vision and Ty Isaac's overall solid (if bizarrely underwhelming) package. Higdon looked solid, too, and Chris Evans didn't look bad, though he was the least impressive of the quartet.

A stable is much better than a stars-and-scrubs approach at RB.

16. Penn State players never seemed all that motivated or excited to be playing in the game

They came out of the tunnel flat, which is never a good sign. Guys didn't seem excited for each other when somebody made a good play.

Perhaps most damning to me was a play in the mid-fourth quarter. McSorley threw a quick hitter to tight end Mike Gesicki on an arrow route on a 4th-and-1 play. Gesicki caught the ball at the line to gain, but fought Dymonte Thomas for an extra two yards to secure the first down. After the play, Gesicki ran to the sideline where he was greeted by...nobody? Not a single player or coach even gave him so much as a tap on the butt or shoulder. Even in a blowout, I expected to a minimal level of enthusiasm for an inspired play by a teammate.

Perhaps that will end up being the lasting image of the James Franklin era instead? I don't know. It doesn't much matter. I just hope that the era doesn't extend beyond this November.

Forecasting Penn State's Fragile 2016 Season

There's no way to sugarcoat this: James Franklin has used up just about all of the goodwill he had with him when he arrived in Happy Valley. We could debate for ages whether or not that's fair, but the reality of the Franklin tenure isn't all that pretty. 0-6 against OSU, MSU, and U of M. 0-2 against Northwestern. A loss to Temple. A 1-point win against a 3-9 Maryland team in 2015...that followed a 1-point home loss to Maryland in 2014, Penn State's second-ever loss to Maryland in 37 meetings at the time. A pair of drubbings at the hands of Michigan State. The regression of ace quarterback Christian Hackenberg under Franklin's regime.

The list of bad is lengthy.

That said, the list of good still exists, even if it isn't quite as impressive. Rousing wins over UCF and Boston College bookended a decent debut season in 2014 and a great showing against eventual national champion Ohio State in late October (a double-overtime loss) engendered real hope. He kept a solid recruiting class on board in 2014 (25th) after taking over for Bill O'Brien, and his 2015 and 2016 classes (15th and 23rd, respectively) suggest that he'll keep enough talent in-house to win. His 2017 class is largely in line with the 15-16 groups with his current quartet of pledges for 2018 having the makings of a potential impact group.

Of course, those future recruiting classes only matter to Franklin if he is still around to coach them. In my eyes, he needs at least six wins this year to keep the job, and he may very well need to avoid another catastrophic loss like the beatdown handed to his club by Temple last year.

I've been generally underwhelmed by Franklin at times and deeply disappointed at others. Not a winning combination. His solid production at Vanderbilt portends better things at Penn State than he has shown thus far. Let's look at the 2016 squad and then examine how it should be expected to perform against its schedule to see just what Franklin's chances are of sticking around and regaining the trust of the fan base.

Defense
As a personal preference, I'd much rather have a strong defensive line backed up by middling linebackers and defensive backs than a great back seven with a middling line playing in front of it. The 2015 Penn State defense featured an inexperienced-but-talented secondary (save for Dolphins draftee Jordan Lucas), an underperforming and injury-bitten linebacking group, and an elite defensive line that featured a second-round pick at defensive tackle (Austin Johnson), a third-round pick at defensive end (Carl Nassib), a sixth-round pick that split time between the spots (Anthony Zettel), and a star in the making in end Garret Sickels.

Only Sickels returns this year and the complementary pieces are all question marks. Senior end Evan Schwan should be pushed by blue chip redshirt freshman Ryan Buchholz. But it's possible that none of that will matter as the Nittany Lions don't really have interior replacements for Johnson or Zettel. How bad is it? 275-pound redshirt freshman Kevin Givens is slated to start. Gulp. 275-pound defensive tackles are rare commodities (Johnson is 313 pounds!), and an interior line that gets pushed off of the ball spells disaster for the defense. If Givens and redshirt junior Parker Cothren can hold their ground on the interior, the defense could be a bit better on the whole than last year's group. But if the Penn State defense regresses mightily in 2016, look at the interior of the line as the likely reason why.

The linebackers should be much stronger in 2016. Nyeem Wartman-White returns as a redshirt senior to stuff the run, and juniors Brandon Bell and Jason Cabinda both have chances to make All-Big Ten teams at season's end. Importantly, blue chip true sophomore Manny Bowen is pushing for playing time, and he's a nice contrast to Wartman-White as a smaller, faster player who can be relied upon more heavily in pass coverage. The unit stacks up well, especially if Bell can capture some of his 2014 promise.

The defensive backfield has a chance to be the strongest unit on the defense given the presence of both strong depth and decent ceilings. Marcus Allen returns for what I think will be a final year in college before leaping to Sundays and he'll be joined at safety by three experienced solid citizens in Malik Golden, Koa Farmer, and Troy Apke, The ceiling is lower for that trio than would be ideal, but between them, Golden's coverage skills and Farmer's run support should play well. The cornerbacks are younger than the safeties, but this is the most talented group of corners in Franklin's three seasons. Undersized junior Grant Haley plays well on an island, and big-time prospect John Reid has won the opposite corner job. Junior Christian Campbell offers some depth with redshirt freshman Garrett Taylor the real high-ceiling play in the group. There's enough talent here to absorb an injury and still net solid production.

In the end, I'd expect the defense to play a bit worse than the 2015 unit given the losses on the defensive line, but a final defensive rankings in the teens is plenty plausible.

Offense
Boy, is this going to be interesting or what?

Franklin couldn't make it work with Hackenberg, one of the most disappointing results for a coach-quarterback combination in all of college football last year. The days of the Hackenberg-O'Brien union now seem like a distant memory.

New offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead brings a new offense to Penn State, one that features a zone blocking scheme and a series of shorter passes. New quarterback Trace McSorley seems reasonably well suited to run such an offense, though there's no denying the drop off in physical skills at the position. McSorley runs well and he throws a good ball, so there's still a reason for hope. Then again, there's simultaneously an expectation of growing pains and combining that with a six-foot, redshirt sophomore quarterback can go south in a hurry.

The line has consistently been a disaster under Franklin, but there is finally a reason to have some hope that this group can improve from last year. After Paris Palmer flopped as a JUCO left tackle, redshirt junior Brendan Mahon solidified the spot (to a degree) and he figures to hold the job going forward. Redshirt junior right tackle Andrew Nelson is a beneficiary as he gets to move back to his more natural spot. Right guard Derek Dowrey and center Brian Gaia, both fifth-year seniors, are the weak links. Left guard Ryan Bates, a redshirt freshman, may experience some growing pains, but he's a good bet to stick as a starter for the next four years. Franklin has badly needed somebody like this given that Penn State hasn't grabbed a plus starter on the offensive line since Donovan Smith. Thankfully for Franklin, true freshman Michal Menet is waiting in the wings with a real shot to take over for Dowrey if things go south. I'll be keeping my eye on that this year.

If Penn State can get average line play (an aspiration at this point, even with the experience), the offense should fly because the skill position players are arguably the best in the Big Ten. The undisputed leader is returning Freshman All-American Saquon Barkley. Barkley is a special runner with elite agility, quick moves, and enough speed to make it all work. The drop off from Barkley to his comrades is stark, though freshman Miles Sanders comes with the same type of pedigree.

The pass catchers are primed for huge seasons at the same time. Three juniors - Chris Godwin, Saeed Blacknall, and DaeSean Hamilton - form the best trio of Nittany receivers since Derek Moye, Graham Zug, and Chaz Powell caught balls from Daryll Clark en route to the program's most recent top-ten finish in 2009. Quick sophomore DeAndre Thompkins and huge redshirt freshman JuWan Johnson complete an incredibly strong five-man unit.

The tight end spot is shallow, but it is very strong at the top with future NFLer Mike Gesicki leading the way. Gesicki will need to add a bit of bulk to thrive in the NFL, but for now, he'll settle for being a speedy interior threat for the offense.

In the end, the Penn State offense will thrive or sputter depending on the play of the line. The skill position players are so good that they should be able to overwhelm inferior opponents, but the unit must function as a whole against the cream of the crop. I'm still bullish on the big boys up front, but if they play well, 2016 could be an offensive breakout of sorts for Franklin at Penn State.

Special Teams
Often overlooked yet no less crucial, Penn State's kicking game was disastrous last year. After an excellent senior season from Sam Ficken in 2014, Joey Julius struggled mightily with his accuracy on placement kicks in '15, including missing four extra points. The punting, incredibly, was substantially worse as nobody grabbed the job and the team gave away dozens of yards each game on terrible kicks.

No more. The placekicking should be adequate this season with Julius likely handling kickoff duties and accurate junior Tyler Davis handling the placekicks inside of about 45 yards. Just as importantly, freshman Alex Babir provides hope for the future at the position.

Most importantly, the punting should be exponentially better with freshman Blake Gillikin, among the top-five punters in the class, manning the spot. This upgrade should pay immediate dividends.

The return options aren't all that inspiring, but in an era where most skills have a kickoff specialist who negates the return game, the cost is comparatively low. Hopefully the coaching staff is smart enough to avoid putting Barkley back to catch any kicks.

Coaching
In college, it all comes back to this. I'm not optimistic that Franklin turns a corner and most of his assistants are new, something that always requires time for adjustment. In the end, they'll likely be outcoached as a staff in a good number of their games, especially as the staff learns to work together.

Schedule
Ruh roh. If Penn State was a better team, they'd be set up to make a big run with both Ohio State and Michigan State heading to Pennsylvania this year. Unfortunately, for a middling club, having brutally hard games at home and comparatively less difficult games on the road means that there are very few gimmes on the schedule. Here's how I see things playing out:

Opponent           PSU Win %           Predicted Score
Kent State               95%                       38-10 (W)
@ Pittsburgh           40%                       16-27 (L)
Temple                    90%                       33-16 (W)
@ Michigan              1%                         6-34 (L)
Minnesota                55%                      23-27 (L)
Maryland                  65%                      28-20 (W)
Ohio State                   4%                      17-33 (L)
@ Purdue                  70%                      26-10 (W)
Iowa                          50%                      31-29 (W)
@ Indiana                 60%                       38-34 (W)
@ Rutgers                 80%                      29-16 (W)
Michigan State          40%                      16-24 (L)

My actual predictions would have the Nittany Lions finish the season at 7-5 with a 5-4 record in the Big Ten. I'd be plenty happy with that because my gut tells me that they'll finish 6-6 or 5-7. Basically, it boils down to the fact that the roster appears to have 7-9 win talent but I don't trust Franklin. My predicted win percentages yield exactly 6.5 wins on the season, so perhaps 6-6 or 7-5 is the better pick.

Franklin has enough talent in the program at this point to continue his run of reaching a bowl game in every season as a head coach. However, a year after taking 9-10 win talent to a 7-5 record, he's going to have to do more with less this year. If he can do that and earn himself another year, the outlook for 2017 will be very bright, including aspirations of returning to double-digit victories. If not, well, the trustees could be searching for their fifth coach in seven years.

2016 NFL Predictions

Having gone through my full Bears prediction for the season, here's a look at my expectations for individual team records and the postseason.

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (12-4) - too much talent not to win
Arizona Cardinals (11-5) - ditto
Los Angeles Rams (6-10) - QB will scuttle them again
San Francisco 49ers (3-13) - very little talent, period

NFC South
Carolina Panthers (12-4) - primed for another conference title
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) - easy schedule + Jameis improvement
Atlanta Falcons (7-9) - mediocrity abounds
New Orleans Saints (6-10) - cap woes finally muzzle them

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (9-7) - a bit of underachievement but roster is talented enough to overcome
Washington Redskins (7-9) - mediocre
New York Giants (7-9) - also mediocre
Philadelphia Eagles (5-11) - in transition

NFC North
Green Bay Packers (14-2) - they're due for a huge year (also due for 6-10, but that won't happen)
Minnesota Vikings (11-5) - an incredibly deep roster + good coaching
Chicago Bears (7-9) - stuck in the middle but at least there's some young talent; floor is high on D
Detroit Lions (4-12) - on the way down in a big way

AFC West
Oakland Raiders (10-6) - my big surprise pick: serious high-end talent here
Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) - solid team with low ceiling
Denver Broncos (8-8) - all defense/no offense only works so well
San Diego Chargers (4-12) - they'll be a mess

AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6) - some adopted homerism but Jackson+Fowler+Ramsey+Jack on D
Houston Texans (10-6) - I love Bill O'Brien and see plenty of wins with adequate QB play
Indianapolis Colts (9-7) - still far too much pressure on Luck to carry load
Tennessee Titans (6-10) - Mariota improves them some but not enough

AFC East
New England Patriots (11-5) - more of a struggle than normal as Tom gets old
Buffalo Bills (8-8) - some continued improvement, though I'm skeptical of Tyrod
Miami Dolphins (8-8) - a step forward in Y1 for Gase
New York Jets (5-11) - no more FitzMagic

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - should be an easier year than usual for them
Baltimore Ravens (9-7) - somebody sneaks in with a so-so year
Cincinnati Bengals (7-9) - due for a dud even with Marvin's steadiness
Cleveland Browns (2-14) - get ready to raise that banner, Cavs fans!

NFC Playoff Tree
#5 Minnesota over #4 Dallas
#3 Carolina over #6 Arizona

#1 Green Bay over #5 Minnesota
#2 Seattle over #3 Carolina

#1 Green Bay over #2 Seattle

AFC Playoff Tree
#5 Houston over #4 Oakland
#3 Jacksonville over #6 Baltimore

#1 Pittsburgh over #5 Houston
#2 New England over #3 Jacksonville

#2 New England over #1 Pittsburgh

Super Bowl
#1 Green Bay over #2 New England

Prediction for the 2016 Chicago Bears Season

In previous years, I've looked at position groups in assessing the quality of the Bears' roster. I like that format but I thought I'd trying something more free-flowing this year to match my basic thought that this may very well be a tale of two seasons.

Let's start with something essential: the schedule. Here we go:

@ Houston
Philadelphia
@ Dallas
Detroit
@ Indianapolis
Jacksonville
@ Green Bay
Minnesota
-----BYE-----
@ Tampa Bay
@ New York Giants
Tennessee
San Francisco
@ Detroit
Green Bay
Washington
@ Minnesota

This probably goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: the front half of that schedule is significantly more challenging than the back half. I don't think all that much of the Eagles or the Lions, but I do think that there's a very real possibility that the Bears enter their Bye at 3-5 or even 2-6. Obviously the post-Bye schedule sets them up to go on a huge run, but it may be too late at that point in the season to really matter. Obviously we'll see.

Special Teams
In looking at the roster, I'll start with the special teams. Pat O'Donnell should be average as a punter, but Robbie Gould is on his last legs after a strong career and I have no reason to suspect Patrick Scales will be even average. This is likely to be a below-average unit, even though Gould is probably the biggest beneficiary of the NFL moving the kickoff spot up to the 35-yard-line.

Offense
The offense is a real mixed bag. I'm not worried about the running backs because there are plenty of useful bodies in the position group and even if they end up being below-average as a unit, the gap between below-average and above-average running back groups is tiny.

The tight end group looks awful, easily among the five worst groups in the league, especially when considering Zach Miller's immense injury risk. Thankfully they shouldn't be the focal point of the offense.

Jay is Jay. In his good years, he's a bit better than average. In his bad years, he's a bit worse than average. No reason to expect him outside of that zone this year. Brian Hoyer is a nice backup, though he's not anything more than that and upside is non-existent.

I love the wide receiving group. The last receiver I liked in the draft as much as Kevin White before White was Alshon Jeffery. The Bears should have no problem getting the ball to their big targets. I expect Eddie Royal to have a productive year and for Daniel Braverman to quickly play his way into the rotation as a reliable slot man with moves to make defenders miss and pick up additional yardage. It's a strong group and one that I hope keeps Jeffery in house for years to come.

Unfortunately, the success of the offense will come down to the play of the offensive line and there are numerous reasons for concern with that group. Even at its best, the line of Charles Leno, Cody Whitehair, Hroniss Grasu, Kyle Long, and Bobby Massie looks like a below-average unit. Sadly, Grasu is already out, testing the depth of the quintet. The front office continues to play musical chairs with the reserves, signing three linemen within the last week. I'm not sure what the peak is for this group with Ted Larsen at center but I imagine that Jay Cutler has nightmares about its floor.

On the whole, the offense looks like a below-average group to me, complicated by the departure of guru Adam Gase to take over the Dolphins. There's a chance that they play a bit better than I expect, but there's also a real possibility of the offense completely flaming out and being a bottom-of-the-barrel unit. The saving grace: I adore the two big receivers and even if White proves raw, his physical skills should make him an impact player from the get-go. The Bears certainly need it.

Defense
This group is completely different. In my eyes, there is one gaping shortcoming surrounded by positivity. Let's start with the nightmare: the cornerbacks. Tracy Porter acquitted himself well last year even though he was probably still a below-average starter, and Kyle Fuller still has plenty of talent even if he hasn't played at a consistently high level yet as a pro. Behind those two, it gets ugly quickly. We're talking about a raw rookie in Deiondre' Hall, a former undrafted free agent in Bryce Callahan, and two guys on the bubble in Sherrick McManis and the injured Brandon Boykin. Mediocre at the top + no depth --> recipe for disaster. The Bears will be watching the waiver wire for help outside. And I wrote all of this before news broke that Fuller is out indefinitely following knee surgery. Gulp.

Everywhere else, I like the defense. The safety group is the next weakest, but Adrian Amos is a viable starter, Deon Bush looks like a playmaker as a rookie, Harold Jones-Quartey could stick, and Deandre Houston-Carson could have a future too. It's not great but there's some real talent here.

The linebacking group is a breath of fresh air. In the inside, the trio of Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, and Nick Kwiatkoski offer a top-of-the-line starter, a solid starter, and a real prospect. Very nice. On the outside, the quartet of Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, and Leonard Floyd provide a top-of-the-line starter (when healthy), a solid starter, another solid starter, and an elite prospect bursting with upside (even if I don't like the pick). It's tough not to love that.

Still, none of those position groups matter if the Bears consistently get beat up front. That has been a huge problem in years past but I don't think that it will be this year. In the interior, Eddie Goldman is an above-average starter already at the nose and Will Sutton should be a capable reserve after a few years in the league even if he is a disappointment. On the outside, the combination of Akiem Hicks and Jonathan Bullard is bursting with upside while some combination of Ego Ferguson, Cornelius Washington, and Mitch Unrein brings experience and some explosiveness (in the case of Ferguson and Washington) off of the bench.

Combine all of this talent with John Fox's coaching staff and the Bears defense should be an above-average group on the whole given that being strong up front is more productive than being weak in the back is counterproductive in my eyes. I won't be at all surprised if Ryan Pace and his staff work hard to find this year's version of Tracy Porter in the coming weeks, especially if Kyle Fuller is out for any discernible amount of time.

Prediction
I'm going to do this a little differently too, picking a win percentage for each game and then totaling those up as opposed to picking the actual result of each game, a routinely futile process.

@ Houston: 25%
Philadelphia: 65%
@ Dallas: 35%
Detroit: 65%
@ Indianapolis: 30%
Jacksonville: 40%
@ Green Bay: 15%
Minnesota: 30%
-----BYE-----
@ Tampa Bay: 45%
@ New York Giants: 45%
Tennessee: 75%
San Francisco: 80%
@ Detroit: 40%
Green Bay: 30%
Washington: 60%
@ Minnesota: 25%

Add it all up and we get 7.05 wins which rounds quite easily to a 7-9 season.

The schedule is set up for the Bears to have a real shot at 10 wins, but a lot of things have to go right. Early injuries to Grasu and Fuller most certainly do not fit in that bucket and the overall dearth of talent on the offensive line figures to sabotage what could otherwise be a strong season.

Perhaps the worst part of all of this: unless Cutler takes a big step forward, it's highly likely that the Pace/Fox regime cuts him loose following the season as the dead money amount on his contract drops to just $2 million next year. Even if the Bears add key pieces on the offensive line and in the secondary before next season, breaking in a new quarterback will likely result in growing pains that temper expectations and suppress the win total. Progress would keep Pace and Fox around, but the pressure to win in 2018 would be immense at that point.

Here's hoping that a run of victories in 2016 changes the script instead.