2023 Football Picks and Thoughts

I would've preferred to get this written by last week, but a busy life combined with taking my big girls to their first home game at Beaver Stadium prevented that from happening. Alas, as will be made abundantly clear below, I'm owning up to my preseason thoughts. In no particular order, here goes:

College

1. The CFP race seems wide open...and I think that favors the bluest of blue bloods. A ton of top teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, including Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Penn State. This figures to favor other top schools with returning QBs like Michigan, USC, LSU, Florida State, Washington, and Oregon. But more than that, I figure that this favors the teams that have dominated recruiting rankings in recent years. Thus, my picks for the playoff: Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State.
1. This aged very poorly. Way to go, Clemson!
2. Deion Sanders is going to work at Colorado but it's going to take some time. There's no way to churn that much of your roster and enjoy success immediately. They'll surely be humbled in their opener at TCU. And I suspect that 2023 will go very poorly, even if Deion manages to eclipse the 3.5-win over/under in year one.
1. This also aged very poorly. Big yikes! Travis Hunter might be the best football player this century.
3. The B1G East is going to go out with a bang. While I despire the explosion of the B1G, SEC, and ACC, one big benefit is the end of the East-West divisions in the B1G. Absent an all-time upset, Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State will win the B1G and finalize the East's supremacy in winning its 10th of 10 B1G Championship Games this December. What a dumb setup. To be fair, this is only the case because Michigan and Ohio State have both made multiple CFP appearances while Penn State has enjoyed four top-10 finishes in the CFP era. This year appears no different. It's nearly impossible to see any of these three squads losing more than three games this year, and it seems most likely that the schools will only beat each other as they did in 2023. If that proves true, the stakes on October 21 (PSU @ OSU), November 11 (UM @ PSU), and November 25 (OSU @ UM) will be astronomical.
4. I continue to despie that the CFP Committee almost exclusively cares about wins and losses. Michigan's schedule is particularly embarrassing with a non-conference schedule that features East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green. Unfortunately, Michigan's schedule is objectively their best path to the CFP. If they split with OSU and PSU, Michigan is overwhelmingly likely to reach the CFP. I'm thankful that PSU scheduled a traditional rivalry game against West Virginia...but the other two non-conference games being FCS Delaware and UMass really stinks. Kudos to Ohio State for playing Notre Dame this year...bu the Committee has consistently said that this type of game is a bad idea because you might lose. That's stupid. A close loss for OSU against Notre Dame should be worth significantly more than whatever Michigan does against UNLV or PSU does against Delaware.
5. I still think Mel Tucker is a bad coach. I'll never forgive him for what he did to the Bears defense a decade ago. That said, Michigan State could win four games or eight games just as easily. Their schedule is brutal and their talent is modest. MSU is likely behind Maryland in the East so they desperately need to come in ahead of Indiana and Rutgers. Last year's squad went 3-6 in the B1G and all three wins (Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana) were of the one-score variety. It's wild to think that Tucker's group was ranked #11 this time last year. If I was forced to bet, I'd bet on MSU going 5-7 and missing a bowl...yet I'm still terrified of Penn State's visit to Ford Field on Black Friday thanks to years of sorcery from Mark Dantonio.
6. Michigan's schedule is difficult to fathom. This deserves another note. It's eminently possible that Michigan won't face a team that ends the year with a winning record until mid-November. Michigan might be the best team in the country this year...but we won't find out for a couple of months. Here are the over/unders for their first nine opponents with each squad's preseason SP+ ranking among 133 FBS teams:
1. East Carolina: 5.5 (92nd)
2. UNLV: 5.5 (104th)
3. Bowling Green: 4.5 (119th)
4. Rutgers: 4.5 (83rd)
5. Nebraska: 6.5 (49th)
6. Minnesota: 7 (35th)
7. Indiana: 3.5 (81st)
8. Michigan State: 5 (57th)
9. Purdue: 5 (60th)
7. I'm extremely hopeful for Penn State in 2023. QB Drew Allar has to carry the load for Nittany to enjoy a special season, but even if Allar underwhelms (he sure didn't on Saturday), the Penn State roster is incredibly deep. RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen is as good of a tandem as exists nationally. The offensive line features experience and star power, particularly in LT Olu Fashanu. The defensive line should compete with everyone on the schedule...except for Michigan. The DL remains undersized and, thus, a terrible matchup for Michigan's beefy line. The LBs and DBs can truly play with anyone. If offseason weight gains for DTs Hakeem Beamon and Zane Durant prove legitimate and enable them to stand up against plus rushing attacks, the sky is the limit for Penn State. Thankfully, the schedule offers the opportunity to both ease into the season's toughest games and avoid a murderer's row in October as has been the case in numerous recent years. Nevertheless, the most likely outcome is a very good Penn State team that might even host a first-round playoff game in a 12-team format once again misses out on the final four, in part due to marginal costs associated with their subpar kicking game.
8. Ohio State's talent level will ultimately be too much. It's easy to forget that OSU was an indoor field goal away from winning the championship in 2022. They went toe to toe with an absolutely loaded Georgia team. They need to replace CJ Stroud, but between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown, the Buckeyes are choosing between elite prospects. OSU might struggle at OT for a few games, but by the time they host Penn State and especially when they travel to Ann Arbor, they'll be clicking.
9. B1G Picks. I didn't check individual schedules to confirm that the numbers add up, so don't take this to the bank.
1. East
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. Michigan (11-1)
3. Penn State (10-2)
4. Maryland (7-5)
5. Michigan State (5-7)
6. Rutgers (5-7)
7. Indiana (3-9)
2. West
1. Wisconsin (9-3)
2. Iowa (9-3)
3. Minnesota (7-5)
4. Nebraska (6-6)
5. Illinois (5-7)
6. Purdue (3-9)
7. Northwestern (3-9)

NFL

1. The Detroit Lions should run away with the NFC North. It felt weird to type that. The Lions are absolutely loaded compared to their competition. Their offensive line is the class of the North, especially the tackles. Their defensive front is solid and extremely deep, led by a budding star in Aidan Hutchinson. The back seven looks solid. Even though I think drafting Jack Campbell at 18th overall was a wild reach, I'm a big fan of Campbell the player and expect him to produce immediately. If this was any team other than the Lions, I'd peg them for 12 wins. But it's the Lions. They'll have to actually win the division before anyone can pick them to do so.
1. I still think the Lions blew it by not finding a way to get a QB this year when they had a top-10 pick and another top-20 pick. They're going to find it exceptionally difficult to land a franchise QB in the coming years if Goff isn't the guy. And I don't think Goff is the guy. He played well last year behind a superb line with a strong rushing attack. Marrying yourself to a system QB at $50M/year is a recipe for disappointment.
2. The Packers look as wobbly as they have in my conscious lifetime, yet I still think they win the North. Perhaps I just hate myself. But I'm fully prepared for Jordan Love to throw for 4,000 yards en route to a 9-8 record that wins the division. Their front seven scares me.
3. The Vikings look mediocre but not bad. They're destined for more time in purgatory.
4. The Bears are ready to make a leap but not ready to contend. For some reason, many folks don't seem to understand the depth of the 2022 tank. The Bears gave dozens of starts to players who aren't starters or even second stringers for other clubs in 2023: Nick Morrow, Sam Mustipher, Al-Qadin Muhammad, Joe Thomas, Robert Quinn, Michael Schofield, DeAndre Houston-Carson, and Armon Watts all started at least four games in 2022 yet aren't listed in anyone's two deep. As for this year's squad, the camp injury to Teven Jenkins is a devastating blow as it results in the reinsertion of the dreadful Lucas Patrick into the starting lineup. Even with Patrick in the lineup, the offense has the tools to be a top-half unit this year and, even if Justin Fields doesn't improve at all, the sheer value of adding DJ Moore, Darnell Wright, Chase Claypool, Nate Davis, and Robert Tonyan to the rotation should yield a significantly more explosive offense. Unfortunately, the defense remains one offseason away. The back seven should be great and could be a top-5 unit in the league, but the front four looks below average at best and potentially very bad if a few things go wrong. In this era of football, a strong back seven is a huge boon; the secondary of Brisker-Johnson-Stevenson-Jackson-Gordon is young and explosive while the Edmunds-Edwards linebacking combination can ran, tackle, and range. The defensive line features four starters acquired via free agency, a testament to the impact of last year's tank. Whiffing on Javon Hargrave, Dre'Mont Jones, Dalvin Tomlinson, and even Sheldon Rankins and David Onyemata put the Bears in a bad spot. Justin Jones and Andrew Billings wouldn't start for contenders, nor would rookies Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens. The story is nearly identical on the edge with Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker both fringe starters who figure to play starter-level reps. Dominique Robinson and Rasheem Green offer below-average bodies behind them. Add it all up and the Bears figure to feature a bottom-5 defensive line. Combined with the back seven, that's a recipe for competence, not success.
5. So, my NFC North pick:
1. Packers (9-8)
2. Lions (9-8)
3. Vikings (8-9)
4. Bears (6-11)
6. With a good offeason next winter, the Bears are well positioned to battle the Lions for supremacy in the North for the next few years. That would be very fun and far preferable to the Packers and Vikings continuing to dominate the division as they have for the last 17 years. Since the Bears lost the Super Bowl in February 2007, Chicago has made three playoff appearances in 16 years, winning just one playoff game (against a Seattle team with a losing record). Not to be outdone, Detroit has made only three playoff appearances in the 23 seasons this century and hasn't won a playoff game since 1991. It's about darn time.