"It's no secret that while I respected JFF's abilities as a recruiter, I've long been unimpressed with his gameday coaching abilities. That position is largely untenable at this point."
Ha!
To be fair, the 2016 and 2017 seasons did provide an incredible narrative arc for JFF on gameday. Following the beatdown at the hands of Michigan to close out September 2016, the 20 wins and ultra-close loses to USC, Ohio State, and Michigan State over the following 23 games had most fans feeling great.
Then 2018 happened. And I was reminded that JFF needs a massive talent advantage or a few strokes of great luck to overcome his gameday shortcomings. The Ohio State loss in 2018 was excruciating, but the teams were largely evenly matched. The Michigan State loss was inexcusable as Nittany fell to a hobbled team at home coming off of its bye. The Michigan loss was embarrassing as the team was uncompetitive with the Wolverines for the second time in three years. The Kentucky loss, however, perfectly encapsulated JFF's major flaw: he's incredibly conservative during games, even when his team is the underdog. Despite trailing 10-0 early and then 27-7 entering the fourth quarter, Franklin inexplicably largely kept the reins tight, only allowing outgoing senior quarterback Trace McSorley the freedom on which he so fully thrives when desperation set in...before calling for a mid-range field goal to take away Penn State's last remaining quality scoring chance despite being down six late in the fourth quarter. Brutal.
So where does that leave Penn State heading into 2019? In an extremely tenuous situation.
The 2019 squad is loaded with underclassmen talent. That's a good thing. However, the upperclassmen ranks are alarmingly sparse. The team has a manageable schedule (more on that later), but Franklin needs to fundamentally change his gameday coaching, especially against quality opposition, if he wants to take his shot at glory. Nittany has a talent deficiency against the likes of Ohio State and Michigan, and there's a chasm between the coaching quality of Franklin and Michigan State's Mark Dantonio. It's no surprise, then, that Franklin is 1-4 against each of his Big Ten East rivals.
The path to overcoming those teams is twofold and extremely challenging: Franklin needs to continue to recruit nationally elite classes while improving significantly as a gameday coach. That's a tall order.
The first prong is largely continuing along as it has in past years as detailed here and a strong half-full 2020 class. That's true even in the aftermath of the devastating losses of DE Bryan Bresee to Clemson and especially WR Julian Fleming to Ohio State. (EDIT: I wrote much of this post before Nittany suffered three significant decommitments in the span of a week, made even worse by the best prospect in the group flipping immediately to the Buckeyes. Oof.)
Can Franklin kick it up on gameday? The odds are stacked against him...but here's hoping.
Here's a position by position look at the scholarship group with which Franklin will try to make some surprising noise in 2019. New starters are italicized.
Quarterback
Projected Starter: RS SO Sean Clifford (★★★★)
Reserves: RS FR Will Levis (★★★)
Recruits: Ta'Quan Roberson (★★★★), Michael Johnson, Jr. (★★★★)
Woah. That's one thin depth chart. Levis was originally seen as a system guy who likely wouldn't ever ascend to the top of the depth chart given that he arrived with McSorley, Tommy Stevens, and Clifford all ahead of him and all much more highly regarded. With McSorley off to the NFL and Stevens reunited with former Nittany Offensive Coordinator Joe Moorhead at Mississippi State as a graduate transfer, Levis finds himself one Clifford injury away from starting...and leaving a true freshman on deck.
Speaking of Clifford, I figured he had slightly better than 50/50 odds to win the starting gig even with Stevens on campus. Clifford is a much better passer -- although Stevens was a much better runner -- and Clifford got meaningful repetitions last year behind McSorley when the rugged three-year starter missed time with injuries with Stevens also out. Nevertheless, it's an awful lot to put the future of the program on the shoulders of an untested sophomore. Then again, the same thing was said at this time three years ago and McSorley emerged as an all-time great for the blue and white. Here's hoping lightning strikes twice.
Rating: ★★★
Running Back
Projected Starter: SO Ricky Slade (★★★★★)
Reserves: RS SO Journey Brown (★★★)
Recruits: Noah Cain (★★★★), Devyn Ford (★★★★)
This group is also very young, which might cause concern for some. Not me. Running back remains the easiest position from which an underclassman can make an impact, and Nittany is loaded with impact talent here. Slade may not be ready for 25 carries a game, but given the depth chart behind him, that's not a problem. He won't need to shoulder such a heavy load. The team should expect another dropoff after going from Saquon Barkley to Miles Sanders, but this is still a very strong group.
Rating: ★★★★
Tight End
Projected Starter: SO Pat Freiermuth (★★★★)
Reserves: RS SR Nick Bowers (★★★), RS FR Zack Kuntz (★★★★), RS SR Jon Holland (★★★)
Recruits: Brenton Strange (★★★★)
When Mike Gesicki returned for his senior year in 2017, Penn State fans breathed a sigh of relief knowing that the tight end spot would be safe for at least another year, punting the team's transition to 2018. There were plenty of bodies around to fill the role, but uncertainty abounded. No more. Freiermuth exploded onto the scene and earned numerous Freshman All-American honors, solidifying the position group.
But it doesn't end there. Bowers flashed superb athleticism after finally getting healthy mid-season, Holland was solid in his own time. Kuntz added a good chunk of weight during his redshirt year. And Franklin fought off charges from tight end hotbeds Ohio State and Notre Dame to land Strange.
Rating: ★★★★★
Wide Receiver
Projected Starters: RS SO KJ Hamler (★★★★), SO Jahan Dotson (★★★★), RS FR Justin Shorter (★★★★★)
Reserves: RS SR Weston Carr (0), RS FR Daniel George (★★★★), RS SO Mac Hippenhammer (★★★), RS SO Cam Sullivan-Brown (★★★), RS SR Dan Chisena (0), RS JR Isaac Lutz (0)
Recruits: John Dunmore (★★★★), TJ Jones (★★★★)
There's already a lot of hand wringing going on about the Nittany receiver group, especially after RS SR Juwan Johnson bolted for Oregon...but I'm in the exact opposite bucket. I'm much more excited for this year's group.
Hamler quickly emerged as the best player on the edge for the offense and Dotson pushed his way into meaningful playing time as a freshman. Shorter was slowed by injuries until late in the season and he looked raw, but he comes with the ideal pedigree and some late-season production. To make matters even better, George has been a breakout star of spring ball while Hippenhammer and Sullivan-Brown offer good, experienced depth.
Carr could be a real wild card. The younger brother of former Northwestern receiver Austin Carr, Weston comes to State College after a prolific career at Division II Azusa Pacific. In a room starved for veteran leadership, he could be a helpful presence on and off the field.
Of course, last year at this time I expected Johnson to play his way into the first round of the draft with DeAndre Thompkins complementing him along the way. Instead, those two combined for more drops than I can count, nearly single-handedly hamstringing the offense in the Citrus Bowl. Their production won't be missed, outside of Johnson's run blocking.
This group surely comes with risk, but the young players being relied upon to make some noise have either already produced or come with excellent pedigrees...and none of them are rookies. I'll take it.
Rating: ★★★★
Offensive Tackle
Projected Starters: RS JR Will Fries (★★★), RS FR Rasheed Walker (★★★★)
Reserves: JR Anthony Whigan (★★★★ - JUCO), RS SO Des Holmes (★★★), RS FR Bryce Effner (★★★), RS JR Hunter Kelly (0)
Recruits: None
Ryan Bates screwed up real bad. And it's likely that both he and the 2019 Penn State football team will pay dearly for it.
After three strong but imperfect years of play, Bates declared for the NFL draft, yet he went undrafted and faces long odds to a professional career.
The offensive line he left behind would have looked very strong with him on board. Instead, while Fries returns with 20 starts between the two tackle spots under his belt, the other spot is up for grabs. The hope is surely that Walker grabs a job and runs with it. If that plan fails, bringing in Whigan could prove prescient.
Nevertheless, on the whole, the depth here is underwhelming and there's a wide open starting spot. That doesn't encourage confidence, especially not when breaking in a new quarterback who figures to be much less mobile than the old one.
The 2020 recruiting class currently features a trio of top verbal commits in Aaryn Parks, Grant Toutant, and Olu Fashanu, but none of them are helping anytime soon. (EDIT: Parks decommited and Toutant flipped to Ohio State.)
Rating: ★★
Guard
Projected Starters: RS SR Steven Gonzalez (★★★★), RS SO Mike Miranda (★★★)
Reserves: RS SO C.J. Thorpe (★★★★)
Recruits: Caedan Wallace (★★★★), Saleem Wormley (★★★★)
Gonzalez is a godsend after electing to return to school for his senior year. Hopefully his strong, veteran presence leads to big things up front and pushes him toward a strong professional career.
The other guard spot is up for grabs between Miranda and Thorpe. I'd give Miranda the slight edge given that Thorpe lost some development time after spending a few months at defensive tackle last fall, but Thorpe is feisty and powerful, a couple of true assets in the interior of the offensive line. The recruits offer a nice bridge to the future.
Rating: ★★★
Center
Projected Starter: RS JR Michal Menet (★★★★)
Reserves: RS FR Juice Scruggs (★★★★)
Recruits: None.
Menet took a year or two longer to grow into a starting role than many Nittany fans hoped, but he was ready to roll as a RS SO last year and figures to anchor the line. Having a strong pivot is great.
Unfortunately, Scruggs -- a big recruiting win over Ohio State and Michigan -- was involved in a car accident that sapped valuable development time and likely threatens his availability this fall, further hampering the depth up front.
Rating: ★★★★
Defensive End
Projected Starters: JR Yetur Gross-Matos (★★★★), RS FR Jayson Oweh (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Shaka Toney (★★★), RS JR Shane Simmons (★★★★), RS JR Daniel Joseph (★★★★), RS FR Nick Tarburton (★★★★)
Recruits: Adisa Isaac (★★★★), Smith Vilbert (★★★)
This is just fun.
Gross-Matos will almost certainly be going through OTAs for an NFL club at this time next year; he is poised for big things this fall after a stellar sophomore campaign.
Whoever lines up opposite him will have plenty of opportunities to make an impact as part of a rotation. Toney might get the first crack at the job and Simmons has shown flashes in the past, but my bet is that Oweh's extreme athletic advantage propels him into the majority of the available snaps, especially with a year of coaching under his belt.
Regardless, the depth here is absurd. I mean that as both a positive -- it's great to have so much talent at defensive end -- and a negative -- there are eight scholarship defensive ends for two jobs compared to just 12 scholarship offensive linemen for five jobs.
Rating: ★★★★★
Defensive Tackle
Projected Starters: RS SR Robert Windsor (★★★★), SO P.J. Mustipher (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Antonio Shelton (★★★), RS SO Fred Hansard (★★★★), RS SO Damion Barber (★★★★), RS JR Ellison Jordan (★★★★), RS FR Judge Culpepper (★★★), RS FR Aeneas Hawkins (★★★)
Recruits: Hakeem Beamon (★★★★), D'Von Ellies (★★★★), Joseph Appiah Darkwa (★★★)
If the ratio of defensive ends to offensive linemen is ridiculous, the ratio of defensive tackles to offensive linemen is patently absurd. Thankfully, the over-the-top numbers have resulted in a position group that should be strong.
Windsor surprisingly grew into a starter in recent years and figures to push for All-Big Ten consideration this year. The intrigue in the group, however, centers on who fills the spot next to him. There are numerous contenders for the job, but much suspicion is that Mustipher will get the most significant opportunities to win the job given his production and pedigree. Regardless, at a position where depth reigns supreme, Nittany finds themselves loaded in quality rotation bodies.
Rating: ★★★★
Inside Linebacker
Projected Starter: RS SR Jan Johnson (0)
Reserves: RS SO Ellis Brooks (★★★★)
Recruits: Brandon Smith (★★★★★)
I frequently criticize Franklin's gameday coaching skills, but perhaps his biggest coaching decision for the 2019 season will be found here: can he stomach moving Johnson to the bench in favor of Brooks before Johnson's physical limitations inevitably materialize and cost the team a game or two? Or will his loyalty to Johnson -- a former wrestler who walked on to the football team, played when the 2016 team was beset by a rash of injuries, suffered his own significant knee injury, then played his way into a scholarship -- result in an extra loss or more?
That decision is the only limitation in this group where Brooks appears ready for the starting role with Smith surely ready to push him quickly.
Rating: ★★★★
Outside Linebacker
Projected Starters: SO Micah Parsons (★★★★★), RS SR Cam Brown (★★★★)
Reserves: SO Jesse Luketa (★★★★), RS FR Charlie Katshir (★★★)
Recruits: Lance Dixon (★★★★)
The inside linebacker group is fun. The outside linebacker group is probably as good as any in the country. Parsons is an every-down force while Brown is an ideal complement given his rangy skills. But don't miss Luketa who will surely force his way into even more playing time in 2019.
Linebacker U has been a dormant moniker in recent years. No more. Expect to hear it a lot this fall. This is going to be fun.
Rating: ★★★★★
Cornerback
Projected Starters: RS SR John Reid (★★★★), JR Tariq Castro-Fields (★★★★), RS SO Donovan Johnson (★★★★)
Reserves: RS SO D.J. Brown (★★★), RS FR Trent Gordon (★★★)
Recruits: Keaton Ellis (★★★★), Joey Porter Jr. (★★★★), Daequan Hardy (★★★), Marquis Wilson (★★★)
This group is quite strong at the top, but I have some latent concerns. Reid is a plus starter, though he has a concerning injury history. Castro-Fields has been a regular player for both of his first two years on campus and he has the body to shift out of the slot, but a new role is a new role. Johnson is a great athlete, but he comes with physical limitations as he size makes him a matchup nightmare in the wrong way.
I fully expect Ellis to get some run as a true freshman given his size and superb spring. It's possible that one of the freshman carves out a nice role and mitigates my concerns about the current depth options. It's also possible, however, that the diminutive stature of the outside defenders creates too many matchup problems for the defense.
Rating: ★★★
Safety
Projected Starters: RS SR Garrett Taylor (★★★★), RS SO Johnathan Sutherland (★★★★)
Reserves: JR Lamont Wade (★★★★), JR Jaquan Brisker (★★★★ - JUCO), RS SR John Petrishen (★★★)
Recruits: Tyler Rudolph (★★★★)
Taylor is well-positioned for a huge year at safety after an excellent first year starting in 2018. Nittany has to hope that he survives the year healthy and plays every meaningful snap. If he does, he'll likely find his way onto some draft boards next spring given Nittany's penchant for getting safeties drafted.
But the spot next to him? That's wide open. The coaching staff likely hoped that Wade would win the job, but he has seriously disappointed to date and he didn't earn any internal favors by spending months in the transfer portal. Thankfully, Sutherland has impressed with big hits in his limited playing time and Brisker was a big JUCO get, the rare JUCO with an Alabama offer.
In the end, the top four safeties look strong.
Rating: ★★★★
Specialists
Projected Starters: SR Punter Blake Gillikin (★★★), SO Kicker Jake Pinegar (★★★), RS SO Kicker Jordan Stout (0)
Reserves: None.
Recruits: None.
Gillikin has been a consistent producer and he should be a reliable punter as a senior.
But Pinegar was dreadful as a freshman leading to significant concerns in the kicking game. He'll need to show marked improvement to stave off a challenge to his job. That challenge could very well come from Stout, a Virginia Tech transfer who was not on scholarship in Blacksburg and thus finds himself immediately eligible. While he'll be expected to produce an elite touchback rate, Pinegar could very well open the door for placekicks as well.
Rating: ★★★
Coaching
Projected Starters: HC James Franklin, DC Brent Pry, OC Ricky Rahne
Reserves: None.
Recruits: None.
Franklin's recruiting prowess has much of this roster in good shape. His sideline coaching is poor.
On the bright side, Nittany has some year-over-year consistency with Pry and Rahne both returning to the same jobs this year. But neither is terribly exciting as of yet. Pry has a chance to parlay an extremely talented defense into a head coaching job elsewhere this year. Let's see if he pulls it off.
Rating: ★★★
Position Rankings
In an effort to collate the rankings from above, here are my picks for the position groups worked best to worst:
- Outside Linebacker (★★★★★)
- Tight End (★★★★★)
- Defensive End (★★★★★)
- Running Back (★★★★★)
- Safety (★★★★)
- Center (★★★★)
- Wide Receiver (★★★★)
- Inside Linebacker (★★★★)
- Defensive Tackle (★★★★)
- Cornerback (★★★)
- Guard (★★★)
- Quarterback (★★★)
- Specialists (★★★)
- Offensive Tackle (★★)
Overall, the health of the program in 2019 is good. Unfortunately, the quarterback and offensive tackle spots are hugely concerning as struggles at either spot could sink an offense...but struggles at both spots? That can sink an entire season.
Fortunately, as a Bears fan, I've seen plenty of uninspiring offenses propped up by elite defenses. And this 2019 Penn State defense could be the best one they've had since Tom Bradley was running the show on that side of the ball. There's impact talent at each level, there's depth everywhere, and there's lots of experience to boot.
The Schedule
The schedule isn't exactly brutal -- Nittany avoids Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Northwestern among their crossovers, gets Michigan at home, and features one of the easiest non-conference slates in the Big Ten -- but it isn't without its difficult contests, namely road dates at Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, and Minnesota in addition to a home date with Big Ten favorite Michigan. This schedule would be much more manageable for a less flawed team. Alas. Here are the picks:
@ Penn State 40, Idaho 10
@ Penn State 37, Buffalo 13
@ Penn State 28, Pittsburgh 10
BYE
Penn State 23, @ Maryland 20
@ Penn State 28, Purdue 27
@ Iowa 19, Penn State 16
Michigan 28, @ Penn State 14
Penn State 16, @ Michigan State 14
BYE
@ Minnesota 20, Penn State 17
@ Penn State 35, Indiana 10
@ Ohio State 38, Penn State 10
@ Penn State 44, Rutgers 7
This would leave the Lions at 8-4 (5-4) and headed to the Holiday Bowl, trailing Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Northwestern in the pecking order and sliding in behind Michigan State due to specific bowl preferences. This would be a weird season as beating Dantonio in East Lansing would feel like a major accomplishment...but uncompetitive losses to Michigan and Ohio State yet again would be awfully frustrating, as would losses to overmatched opponents in Iowa and Minnesota.
Speaking of the rest of the Big Ten, here are my projected standings (based on picking every game for each team) and brief thoughts about the various teams:
Big Ten East
- Michigan - 12-0 (9-0)
- Ohio State - 11-1 (8-1)
- Penn State - 8-4 (5-4)
- Michigan State - 8-4 (5-4)
- Indiana - 5-7 (2-7)
- Rutgers - 3-9 (1-8)
- Maryland - 2-10 (1-8)
- Michigan and Ohio State are once again on a collision course to determine the conference's best team.
- Michigan's advantage with Shea Patterson finally pushes them over the top, especially as Ohio State transitions away from decades of dominance under Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer. Despite some notable losses on defense, Don Brown retools his unit well enough to complement the high-powered offense.
- Ryan Day and Justin Fields have no trouble whatsoever picking up where Urban Meyer and Dwayne Haskins left off...until the regular season finale. Their cakewalk non-conference slate -- Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, and Miami (OH) -- enables the team to work through any hiccups before the real games begin.
- Penn State and Michigan State are mirror images of each other: spectacular defenses undone by subpar offenses. Either team could win six or ten games depending on offensive output.
- Mike Locksley only gets one year in College Park before Maryland decides to go another direction.
Big Ten West
- Northwestern - 8-4 (6-3)
- Nebraska - 9-3 (6-3)
- Minnesota - 9-3 (6-3)
- Iowa - 7-5 (5-4)
- Wisconsin - 7-5 (4-5)
- Purdue - 6-6 (4-5)
- Illinois - 3-9 (1-8)
- It's a real cluster at the top as Hunter Johnson narrowly propels Northwestern back to Indianapolis.
- Adrian Martinez and Scott Frost click beautifully and Frost is the toast of Lincoln as he takes the program back to heights not seen since...Bo Pelini did it every year.
- P.J. Fleck reminds everyone that what he did rowing the boat at Western Michigan was no fluke.
- Wisconsin struggles through their worst season in years, but QB Graham Mertz ascends to the top of the depth chart before the season ends, enabling fans to paint rosy pictures of the future.
- Lovie Smith doesn't make it through the year as Illinois hasn't made any discernible progress during his tenure.
Bowl Assignments
- Peach (CFP): Michigan
- Fiesta (CFP): Ohio State
- Rose: Nebraska
- Citrus: Northwestern
- Outback: Michigan State
- Holiday: Penn State
- TaxSlayer: Minnesota
- Pinstripe: Purdue
- Redbox: Wisconsin
- Quick Lane: Iowa
