Chicago Bears 2024 Mock Offseason: FINAL (March 2024) Edition

Free agency kicks off on Monday afternoon. Buckle up. Here we go.

Internal Decisions
S Eddie Jackson ($5.58M dead cap) and G Cody Whitehair ($4.104M) were cut earlier this offseason. Somewhat surprisingly, RB Travis Homer was not. The Bears are currently slated to carry a dead cap of $10.543M into free agency. I actually think that Velus Jones Jr. will stick around as a special teamer, WR, or even converted RB. We'll see. Velus is a plus KR when it gets cold and kickoffs don't carry the endzone in Chicago. That's nice in December and could be clutch in January if the Bears ever play into January again.

Jaylon Johnson is now subject to the franchise tag of $19.802M. And Ryan Bates has been acquired with a $4M cap hit.

But wait a minute! As a result of his early-career playing time, OT Larry Borom received a PPE escalation to a $3.116M base salary. He's getting cut, yielding an additional $83K of dead money.
With an adjusted cap of $260.327M and after allocating (i) $10.626M to dead money, (ii) $4M to the practice squad, (iii) holding back $12M to account for draft cap hits over the minimum, and (iv) accounting for $192.227M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter free agency with approximately $41.474M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Justin Fields
I was previously at 80/20 to take Caleb Williams. I'm now at 99/1. Williams will come to Chicago...

...which means that Justin Fields needs a new home. This is going to get seriously tricky. The Bears are incentivized to hold onto Fields until late April, when some team is unable to fill their QB hole via free agency or the draft. But that's risky and in extremely poor form related to Fields, who has been an exemplary citizen in Chicago. Instead, I think Poles pulls off a deal after free agency begins but before the draft, with the following teams in the running with the most likely first and the longest shot last:

1. Atlanta. The Atlanta native goes home to form a terrifying rushing attack.
2. New England. Picking #3 and in desperate need of a reset, New England could lean into their rushing offense.
3. New Orleans. They have no plan. Fields' speed would play up in a dome.
4. Las Vegas. They were #2 on the list until Luke Getsy signed on to be their new offensive coordinator. He makes a ton of sense there but for Getsy.
5. Denver. They don't have any picks. They'll probably look for their next QB in the draft given their timeline.
6. Pittsburgh. Their QB room is a mess. Mike Tomlin always wins. This one makes a ton of sense unless Russell Wilson will show up for free.
7. New York Giants. They're in a tough spot, wedded to a terrible Daniel Jones for another year and in need of an offensive restructure.

That brings up the matter of Fields' trade value. On one hand, Fields has never been a plus passer in the NFL, stunting his value. On the other hand, Fields is an ultra-elite runner and has improved as a passer each year as the supporting cast has improved around him. Further helping his value: numerous teams are in need of a QB upgrade and it's pretty easy to make the argument that Fields would be better in many other, non-Chicago offenses, especially having undergone plenty of NFL seasoning with the Bears. I previously thought that the Bears could get a 1st for Fields, but that ship appears to have sailed. I'll continue to rely on the PFF trade tool, so the return will surely be less than that and is reflected below.

Trading Fields would net an additional $3.223M in cap space, bringing the Bears to $44.697M.

Free Agency
The Bears have four genuinely massive needs in free agency with options listed in order of my preference:

1. Center. After terrible play at the pivot for years, it's time for a real starter.
1. Connor Williams, Lloyd Cushenberry, Andre James, Aaron Brewer
2. Defensive Line. The Bears need an impact player up front. It could be a 3 technique DT or a DE.
1. DTs: Christian Wilkins, Chris Jones, Leonard Williams, Mo Hurst, Shelby Harris
2. DEs: Danielle Hunter, Jadeveon Clowney, Za'Darius Smith, A.J. Epenesa, Derek Barnett, Chase Young (short contract)
3. Free Safety. With Eddie Jackson gone, the Bears need a starter next to Jaquan Brisker. It's a great year to need a FS given the plethora of safeties that hit free agency or were released.
1. Xavier McKinney, Justin Simmons, Geno Stone, Jordan Poyer
4. #2/#3 Wide Receiver. Behind D.J. Moore, the cupboard is bare.
1. Gabe Davis, Curtis Samuel, Tyler Boyd

The jump in the salary cap really complicates matters for teams that planned to spend big in free agency, like the Bears. Because the cap came in nearly $10M above expectation, numerous teams now have the space to swim in the deep end. This will put significant upward pressure on the free agent market and limit Chicago's ability to splurge. Signing Wilkins or Jones would be the best-case scenario in free agency, but neither signing seems particularly likely.

With all of that said, here we go with projections from PFF:

• Franchise tag for CB Jaylon Johnson (1/$19.802M) while attempting to extend him.
• Will Johnson get extended? Hard to say.
• Sign DE Za'Darius Smith (2/$24M, $19M guaranteed).
• I'd much prefer to find a DT with skills and cost akin to Smith given my strong preference for DE over DT in this draft class, but Smith changes the defensive outlook. He's the right fit.
• Sign WR Curtis Samuel (2/$17M with $11M guaranteed)
• Sign C Connor Williams (3/$22.5M with $12.5M guaranteed)
• Williams is by far the top option, with his contract mitigated by his December ACL tear.
• Sign S Geno Stone (2/$13MM with $7.25M guaranteed)
• I really like the safeties available in the draft, so a short-term safety makes sense here.
• Sign TE Austin Hooper (1/$2M)
• Sign RB J.K. Dobbins (1/$2M)
• Oregon's Bucky Irving is basically the only RB I like in this class and even he would only make sense in the 4th. Thus, take a shot on Dobbins.

The most important goals this offseason are (i) keeping a home-grown star, (ii) bringing in a veteran starting C after years of awful play at the pivot, and (iii) adding another boost to the pass rush. Johnson, Williams, and Smith check those boxes. It's a good year to need a pass rushing boost, and while adding a star like Josh Allen, Brian Burns, or Danielle Hunter would be great, there's plenty of appeal to adding a second-tier pass rush specialist like Smith. Bryce Huff, scary as he is, would also be exciting.

Based purely on AAVs, the above spending spree would utilize $38.5M of cap space before accounting for lower first-year cap hits and, thus, utilize net cap space of just $33.01M after accounting for the minimum salary players replaced by the above signees. This should leave plenty for the draft class, even with some trades.

Justin Fields, Again
I don't think that Poles will ultimately wait until late April to trade Fields. Instead, he'll deal him sometime in late March or early April, as follows:

• Falcons Receive: QB Justin Fields, #123, and a 2025 6th (MIA)
• Bears Receive: #43 and #74

Draft
The main purpose for this article, as it is every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using the Pro Football Focus mock draft tool.

Here we go again for the last time before free agency.

#1: USC QB Caleb Williams
The Williams hype machine is in full force. Williams has a true #1 pick pedigree after half a decade of being the top QB in his class (alongside Quinn Ewers) dating to his time at Gonzaga HS in Washington, DC alongside star Penn State LT Olu Fashanu. Williams has every bit the arm that Fields has, and while his running ability is a tick below Fields, it's plenty helpful. Add in that Williams can grow with a young, improving offensive core in Chicago and the future is bright. I have no doubt that Williams will win over the Bears' locker room. He's a dynamic playmaker and those guys tend to win fans, even if the initial adjustment from the wildly-popular Fields is bumpy.

Bears trade #9 to New York Giants for #39, #47, and a 2025 1st
All four of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, and Brock Bowers were off the board, so I took the nuclear option, adding a pair of 2nds while punting this year's 1st to next year. The Giants are unlikely to be a great squad in 2024, so this should be a pretty decent 2025 1st.

#39: Minnesota S Tyler Nubin
I wanted to trade down again and planned to do so. But then Nubin was available, surprisingly slipping out of the 1st round. Boom. He likely kicks the newly-signed Stone to a 3rd safety role. Nubin is that good. All of a sudden, the safety room looks great!

Bears trade #43 to Jacksonville for #48 and #96, and a 2025 6th
I liked the names on the board here with three DEs available. Picking again at #47, I loved getting my hands on #96 in this deal.

#47: Penn State DE Chop Robinson
Robinson isn't going to last this long, especially after his Combine showing. But if he does, largely due to his limited sack production in the blue and white? Taking best player available dictates that he has to be the guy here. He's too darn good, even with Sweat and Smith already on board and leading the way.

One impact of loading up at DE: DeMarcus Walker kicks back inside, where he enjoyed significantly more success with Tennessee in 2022. This mitigates the need to find DT depth on draft weekend.

Bears trade #48 to Tennessee for #107, a 2025 2nd, a 2025 3rd, and a 2025 4th
Man, I love this one. Delaying this pick to 2025 netted a 3rd and two 4ths. This is how the Bears add depth.

#74: USC WR Brendan Rice
Rice is a great addition for Williams, bringing pedigree, familiarity, and physique. But he's not my favorite WR...

#75: Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley
I think I'd take Corley in the 2nd. I love him so much. He's a compact ball of explosiveness.

#96: Houston OT Patrick Paul
There's almost no chance Paul gets this far, but if he does, he has to be the pick. He features many of the same benefits as Braxton Jones with good production. Paul immediately becomes an ideal reserve OT with the ability to take over at LT.

#107: Arkansas C Beaux Limmer
I don't love Limmer, but he's good value in this spot and fills out the offensive line room wonderfully. Miami DT Leonard Taylor would've otherwise been the pick, but he's tumbling in value this draft season.

Bears trade #111 to Las Vegas for #113 and #190
OK.

Bears trade #113 to New England for #136, a 2025 4th, and a 2025 7th
This one is a bigger deal and is the least enjoyable move I made in this entire mock. Delaying this pick to 2025 returned some value...but not a ton, really. Perhaps I should've made this pick. Oh well.

#136: Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott
Well, I considered using #113 on Sinnott. That would've been fine. His testing was basically akin to Sam LaPorta. He'd be a great addition.

After taking Sinnott, I attempted to swing a deal to get another 5th so I could take Clemson DE Xavier Thomas, but he came off the board a few picks later, nullifying that plan.

Bears trade a 2025 6th, a 2025 6th (JAX), and a 2025 7th (NE) to Washington for #181 and #220
This is bad value. But there were two players that I really wanted at #181 and #220. See below.

#181: Michigan TE AJ Barner
Barner was basically nothing at Indiana until transferring to Michigan in 2023...where he was great. His blocking was excellent and he was surprisingly athletic as a pass catcher. He's worth a swing here.

#190: Tennessee CB Kamal Hadden
I really wanted a developmental edge rusher here, but I didn't love the options and Hadden was a better fit anyway. He allowed a passer rating of 7 this year. He went the junior college route on his way to the NFL, so his pedigree is murky. But the production is there on a flyer.

#220: Iowa P Tory Taylor
If Taylor makes it to the 7th, he has to be the pick. He would be a significant instant upgrade over Trenton Gill.

Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following bevy of tasty picks:

1st (NYG)
1st (CHI)
2nd (CAR)
2nd (TEN)
2nd (CHI)
3rd (TEN)
3rd (CHI)
4th (NE)
4th (TEN)
4th (CHI)
5th (CHI)

Final Roster
New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, J.K. Dobbins, Khari Blasingame
TE (4): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Ben Sinnott, AJ Barner
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, Brendan Rice, Malachi Corley, Tyler Scott, Velus Jones
OT (3): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Patrick Paul
OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ryan Bates (trade)
C    (2): Connor Williams, Beaux Limmer

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Za'Darius Smith, Chop Robinson, Dominique Robinson, FREE AGENT
DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, DeMarcus Walker, FREE AGENT
ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Kamal Hadden
S (5): Jaquan Brisker, Geno Stone, Tyler Nubin, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones

ST (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, Patrick Scales

Taking Williams at #1 overall normally stunts my ability to accrue numerous picks to fill holes. That wasn't the case here. The trade with the Giants from #9 enabled the Bears to get Robinson and add gobs of depth, even before accounting for the 2025 1st coming back.

It's also worth noting that the final tally for the Fields trade would be Fields and #123 for #48, #74, and #96. That still feels like a solid haul for the Bears. Using the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart and assuming an exactly equal trade where both Chicago and Atlanta acquire and ship out 756 points, the trade values Fields as 707 points (Fields (707) + #123 (49) = #48 (420) + #74 (220) + #96 (116)), roughly akin to the #26 pick in the draft. That feels about right.

This roster would feature meaningful starters at every spot along with an incredible infusion of young talent on offense with which the new franchise QB could grow. I'd really enjoy this outcome and the path on which it would leave the Bears, particularly in light of the 2025 war chest they'd have as they continue to shape the roster around Williams.