I've been wondering for the last few months whether the Cubs might consider taking a ultra-aggressive overspending approach to this summer's draft. It makes sense given that (1) the team seems to have a good bit of excess cash to throw around, (2) no other team has utilized this strategy yet in the Rule IV Draft, and (3) the future picks that would be sacrificed in 2016 and 2017 don't figure to be all that valuable for a couple of reasons.
But this post is not here to address that. This post is all about the options at #9 overall.
Every draft season, dozens of prognosticators and publications come out with the their top-X list, be it 100, 200, or 500 prospects. I'm not a prognosticator or a publication. I'm just a guy who likes baseball and spends lots of time watching it, reading about it, and thinking about it.
I have access to some scouting reports, but the overwhelming majority of my information comes from the growing collection of online videos showing these prospects in games. I have plenty of biases that influence my thoughts - I don't like short pitchers, I have a hard time with raw high school bats, and lefty velocity always jumps out to me - so take all of these thoughts with a grain of salt.
With all of that said, here are the 15 players I'm interested in the Cubs pursuing at #9 with a brief description of each including the player's draft-day age in parentheses, a video link, and an explanation of what I like and don't like.
1. LHP Brady Aiken
Height/Weight: 6'3"/210 lbs.
Date of Birth: 8/16/96 (18)
School: None (currently)
What I Like: Everything I liked about Aiken leading up to the 2014 draft. He's got the body, the arsenal, the mindset, and the pedigree to be a lefty ace. Those are valued about as highly as any asset in the game (consider that Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Clayton Kershaw, and C.C. Sabathia all enjoy average annual values of at least $23M on their contracts). Aiken's value is through the roof, even with the Astros debacle in his rearview mirror.
Aiken's mechanics have only the tiniest amount of unnecessary movement. Accordingly, he commands a mid-70s 12-6 curveball, a very good low-80s changeup, and a massive, mid-90s fastball with a hair of tail. Aiken's heater could be the best single pitch of any starting pitcher in the Majors in 2020.
Additionally, even with a lost year, Aiken is reasonably young as he was drafted by Houston in 2014 as a 17-year-old. He's still on the proper developmental timeline.
What I Don't Like: While he's still on the right timeline, nobody gets better by going through the ordeal that the Astros put Aiken through last year and spending the subsequent year in purgatory. I don't like that he's essentially going to waste a developmental year, even if he's got the approach to put 2015 to good use.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: <1%
2. RHP Michael Matuella
Height/Weight: 6'7"/220 lbs.
Date of Birth: 6/3/94 (21)
School: Duke
What I Like: Matuella is a monster, yet despite his huge frame, he commands his pitches well. That's a rare skill from such a big-bodied hurler.
Those pitches? Mid-90s heater, mid-80s changeup, high-70s curveball, and mid-80s slider. Boom. That's it. The fastball has the kind of tail and dive that everyone loves.
What I Don't Like: Given the above description, Matuella would figure to be right there with Aiken atop this list. Unfortunately, there's a dreaded drawback: injury. A back injury cost Matuella a month in 2014, exacerbating fears over the durability of his large body.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: <1%
3. LHP Kolby Allard
Height/Weight: 6'0"/170 lbs.
Date of Birth: 8/13/97 (17)
School: High School (California)
What I Like: Low-90s heat with command, a low-80s curve with plenty of polish, and the room to grow another inch or two before he maxes out his frame. Allard is the closest thing to Aiken that I have seen in roughly nine years of following the draft.
What I Don't Like: While he resembles Aiken in many ways, Allard lacks (1) the changeup, and (2) the size to fully own the comparison. His mechanics are a bit choppier as well.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 5%
4. SS Brendan Rodgers
Height/Weight: 6'0"/195 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (Florida)
What I Like: Rodgers has plenty of skills that function in much the same way as Addison Russell's. Though he doesn't figure to run particularly well, the bat, power, arm, and glove are all plus from a shortstop profile. That's still about as desirable as it gets.
What I Don't Like: I don't love what Rodgers does with his hands to generate his power. I'm worried that the length of his pre-pitch load and the moving pieces in his swing will lead to strikeout problems down the road. Yes, I still like Javier Baez and Russell. Perhaps this makes me a hypocrite and I should just get over myself, embrace Rodgers, and be done with it. I'm just not there yet.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: <1%
5. RHP Cody Ponce
Height/Weight: 6'5"/235 lbs.
Date of Birth: 4/25/94 (21)
School: Cal Poly Pomona
What I Like: Big body, big stuff, great delivery. His consistently mid-90s tailing fastball is going to keep him employed for a while, his slider is a big mover in the mid-to-high-80s, similar to Jake Arrieta's slider/cutter. He toys around with a high-70s curveball that's primarily a get-me-over pitch but can show some devastating break, and I really like what I saw from his low-80s power curveball as he threw it all over the place to lefties. Perhaps this sequence provides the best indication of what Ponce can be. Ponce also enjoyed a tremendous summer in the Cape Cod League, suggesting that his stuff plays well even against elite competition.
What I Don't Like: I just don't like that he's at Cal Poly Pomona. It makes no sense. There may be some lingering ill-will toward Division II prospects from the Hayden Simpson experience - be that fair or not. Ponce apparently worked in the mid-80s coming out of high school, so that likely played a big role in his college choice. Ponce is the kind of guy where the advanced scouts make their money. If he's just a late-blooming monster, gobble him up. If there's some terrifying red flag, stay away. (I'm going with the late-blooming monster option.)
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 60%
6. LHP Justin Hooper
Height/Weight: 6'7"/230 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (California)
What I Like: Upside, upside, and more upside. Hooper is 2015's Tyler Kolek, the biggest arm in the draft class with a chasm between his present self and a future Major League starter.
His fastball sits in the mid-90s and the command is solid. Huge lefties with massive fastballs tend to do really well. He also flashes a solid low-80s slider.
What I Don't Like: Hooper looks like he has basically no idea how to use his enormous teenage body at this point. He looks plenty athletic, but the mechanics suggest that he's really just trying to reign in his explosive stuff. He doesn't have the look of somebody who has harnessed his stuff yet. Hooper's floor is as a guy who doesn't make it to Double-A despite being converted to the bullpen. His curveball also leaves a lot to be desired. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the drafting team scraps the curveball in favor of the slider. The developmental path is going to be long.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 40%
7. OF Nick Plummer
Height/Weight: 5'11"/190 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (Michigan)
What I Like: Michigan! I like that he's from Michigan. OK, beyond just his hometown, I love that Plummer generates big lefty power with a simple, smooth stroke. His swing and finish remind me a lot of Chase Utley's. He's got a bat that should hit for good average and great power. It's tougher for me to know about his discipline and approach, though guys who spend time on the summer and prospect circuits tend to be at least passable here.
What I Don't Like: The defensive profile. It's tough to get a good read on Plummer's athleticism in videos showcasing his swing, but given the body type and his stride, it seems like he's most likely a corner outfielder. That puts a ton of pressure on the bat to play up. Perhaps there's enough athleticism there for him to spend some time in centerfield, but if his defensive profile is as uninspiring as it seems like it might be - Billy McKinney, anyone? - Plummer will have a tough time being an impact player. I also don't like that I can't find more information about his defensive profile.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 75%
8. OF Daz Cameron
Height/Weight: 6'1"/190 lbs.
Date of Birth: 1/15/97 (18)
School: High School (Georgia)
What I Like: The pedigree (Dazmon is Mike Cameron's son), the body, and the all-around game. Cameron should be a plus glove man like his dad, but his offensive profile offers even a bit more to dream on with a smooth stroke. Currently it looks like Cameron would be a 10-15 home run player, but he physique offers enough to see 20-25 homer power at his peak. If he mirrors his dad that well, he's an extremely useful player.
What I Don't Like: I like the swing; I don't love the swing. It's a bit hitchy and a bit long for my taste. If the swing stays long and Cameron strikes out a lot, the profile moves from impact to useful. While it's still nice to get useful players in the top ten, I have a feeling that I'd be left wanting more.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 25%
9. RHP Kyle Funkhouser
Height/Weight: 6'2"/215 lbs.
Date of Birth: 3/16/94 (21)
School: Louisville
What I Like: I like basically everything about Funkhouser. Smooth mechanics, four-pitch mix with a big fastball leading the way, and a plus slider ready to complement the heater. On paper, Funkhouser is as clean as they come.
What I Don't Like: I can't quite put my finger on it. Some of what I don't like about Funkhouser is that I don't see a huge ceiling. I see a good, polished pitcher who is what he is. He's got a great floor - it will be a major upset if he doesn't spend a few years in a Major League rotation - yet he has a low ceiling in my mind. He's probably no better than a #3 option. There's still that part of me that wants to find an ace when drafting this high, and I don't think that Funkhouser has that ability in him.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 25%
10. C Chris Betts
Height/Weight: 6'2"/220 lbs.
Date of Birth: 3/10/97 (18)
School: High School (California)
What I Like: In order to really like Betts, you have to believe that he's a catcher. Fortunately, while that is often difficult with premium bats that have played catcher up the pipeline - as was the case with Kyle Schwarber and Alex Jackson at the top of the 2014 first round - Betts is a true catcher with a huge arm. It remains to be seen how well he develops the non-throwing portion of his game, but framing, receiving, and game-calling all require experience.
Betts has an offensive game that figures to be similar to that of Plummer with a compact stroke that should yield double-digit home runs and at least an average hit tool. He has a strong, all-around profile.
What I Don't Like: If Betts can't stick at catcher, he's a first baseman. If he's a first baseman, he's much less exciting given the 5+ projection of his power and hit tools. The defensive projection is essential and I just don't have enough information to slap a surefire catcher tag on him. If I was 90%+ confident that he was going to stick behind the plate, he'd slot in sixth between Ponce and Hooper.
11. RHP Phil Bickford
Height/Weight: 6'4"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: 7/10/95 (19)
School: Southern Nevada Junior College
What I Like: Bickford's fastball sits in a good spot, comfortably at 93 and routinely at 95. The pitch doesn't move much, but that's the right kind of velocity. I like his 79-81 slurve: the pitch has tight rotation and solid deceptiveness.
What I Don't Like: I'm not sure if Bickford even throws a changeup. I don't think that passing on the Blue Jays to attend Cal-State Fullerton and now SNJC will hurt him all that much, though it's possible that his development will be at least somewhat stunted as a result. Bickford isn't my favorite, but the red flags are relatively minor.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 60%
12. RHP James Kaprielian
Height/Weight: 6'4"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: 3/2/94 (21)
School: UCLA
What I Like: The curveball. It's only a high-80s offering, but he showed both a 12-6 hammer and a slurvier breaker that gave hitters problems. One killer pitch is nice. The righty has a nice mix with a 90 mph fastball, a low-80s slider, and a seldom-used mid-80s changeup.
What I Don't Like: Such a herky-jerky delivery. It's hard to believe that Kaprielian will ever have a truly smooth delivery, something that seriously threatens his command profile. He arches back in his windup, something that may result in command woes.
But that's not even the biggest concern. The biggest concern is the fastball. Kaprielian is big enough that you'd expect more velocity than 90-91. If he's only sitting in that range, he probably drops down this list a good bit. He likely needs to be in the 92-93 territory on a consistent basis to enter top-ten consideration.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 85%
13. RHP Beau Burrows
Height/Weight: 6'1"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (Texas)
What I Like: His fastball/curveball combination is excellent. The fastball sits 93-94, though it is relatively straight. The curveball is the more impressive offering, a 12-6 hammer at 78-80 that he threw confidently to both righties and lefties. He occasionally threw a third pitch that I couldn't quite decipher, sitting between 83 and 86 with some downward movement. I'd believe that it was a two-seam fastball, a splitter, or a changeup. Regardless, the pitch moved well.
What I Don't Like: If I had more confidence in Burrows' frame, he'd rank higher on this list as well. He's big enough to pitch, but I'm not sure that he's big enough to stick as a starter. Fueling this concern is that Burrows generates a lot of his velocity from a rock-back in the same manner as Kaprielian. As a result, with a runner on first, Burrows loses a few tickes on his fastball. There's plenty to work with here, though the package is still pretty raw.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 90%
14. RHP Mike Nikorak
Height/Weight: 6'5"/205 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: High School (Pennsylvania)
What I Like: Nikorak has a quality fastball. He works comfortably in the low-90s with the ability to pump out plenty of offerings in the 93-94 territory while sometimes slipping to 89. Still, the fastball moves well and has enough command right now to grade out as a plus pitch.
I wasn't much of a fun of his curveball, a mid-70s slurvy breaker. However, his high-70s changeup fell off of the table in extremely encouraging fashion. I'd much rather have a high schooler with a strong changeup as that offering tends to be more difficult to learn.
His delivery is plenty smooth.
What I Don't Like: The breaking ball just didn't do it for me. I think he'll need to scrap it as a professional and start from scratch. That's not encouraging. Nevertheless, on the whole, the blemishes are relatively minor for a player with such a good ceiling. Nikorak could climb this spring.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 95%
15. RHP Riley Ferrell
Height/Weight: 6'1"/200 lbs.
Date of Birth: Unknown
School: TCU
What I Like: Mid-90s fastball, mid-80s slider, and great command of both offerings. If you ever wanted to put together an ideal closer, just look at Ferrell.
What I Don't Like: I don't like it when a pitcher can't even stick in his collegiate rotation. It doesn't bode well for his changes of making it into a professional one. Some pitchers have bucked the trend, including recent Cubs draftee and fellow TCU alum Andrew Cashner, but when betting on a ceiling it's tough to choose an already-limited arm. I also don't love Ferrell's body as he appears a bit soft. Finally, I'm not sure that he's even been trying to throw a third pitch in games. It's nearly impossible to envision him as a starter, yet I'd only be interested in him at #9 if the Cubs thought that he could add the changeup/cutter/curveball necessary to make it as a rotation horse.
Likelihood of Player Being Available at #9: 99%
Overall, there are plenty of tantalizing options for the Cubs who will be available at #9.
There will also be a handful of names bandied about who I just don't want to see in Chicago. Six in particular probably deserve special mention, including the reason that I'm not enticed by them. They are:
1. RHP Walker Buehler (Vanderbilt): Buehler is C.J. Edwards 2.0: big stuff, 160 lbs. body. Unfortunately for Buehler, size cannot be taught.
2. LHP Nathan Kirby (Virginia): Kirby has a three-pitch mix as a college lefty. He should be in my wheelhouse. But I don't see the ceiling. I think he's Travis Wood if it all works out and that's not top-ten worthy.
3. SS Dansby Swanson (Vanderbilt): He's just never going to hit enough. He's in the Deven Merrero mold of collegiate shortstops who have the glove but not nearly enough bat.
4. RHP Ashe Russell (High School (Indiana)): Whippy mechanics. It's a high-stress delivery; he's going to get hurt, even if the stuff is enticing.
5. 2B/SS Ian Happ (Cincinnati): Not nearly athletic enough for an athlete-first profile. He might hit .300 someday, but he's never going to hit for power and it's tough to see an even average up-the-middle glove profile.
6. SS Alex Bregman (LSU): I should like him a lot. His swing is really simple, something that should help him make contact as a professional. I just have such a difficult time buying that (1) he's really going to hit for power, and (2) that he's actually a shortstop.
With the list complete, three things jump out to me.
First, there are very few field players. Of the 15 prospects listed, 11 are pitchers. For a team that loves to go after position players in the first round, the Cubs will either be grabbing a prospect of little excitement to me or they'll likely be breaking the mold to go for an arm.
Second, while there are few bats, there are no college bats on my top-15. None. Barring an unforeseen change, the club's streak of college bats will stop at Bryant-Schwarber.
Third, there are relatively few collegians overall. Of the 15 players listed, only five are college juniors. That's a bit deceptive given that two of the other prospects - Aiken and Bickford - will come with at least some college experience. Regardless, the crop of top prospects figures to have less polish in 2015 than it has in years past.
So there we have it. An altogether way too early look at the 2015 draft. This list may change a bit from now until early June. I'm excited to see the process unfold.
