Chicago Bears 2024 Mock Offseason - December Edition

Everything pre-draft will be extremely direct on this one.

Internal Decisions
Cuts are easy: S Eddie Jackson ($5.58M dead cap), G Cody Whitehair ($4.104M), WR Velus Jones Jr. ($0.556M), and RB Travis Homer ($0.225M). Dead cap total after those cuts: $12.324M.

With an adjusted cap of $245.830M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $145.396M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $96.434M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Justin Fields

Taking a very low view of Fields' trade value: Bears trade Fields to the Falcons for #84 and #90. Poles should be able to get more.

Free Agency

Quick hits: franchise tag for CB Jaylon Johnson (1/$20M), C Connor Williams (5/$65M with $30M guaranteed), DE Danielle Hunter (3/$60M with $35M guaranteed), S Kyle Dugger (2/$12M with $6M guaranteed), K Cairo Santos (3/$12M), WR Darnell Mooney (1/$10M), and WR Equanimeous St. Brown (1/$2M).

Draft

The main purpose for this article, as it will be every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, two extra 3rds from Jacksonville (per the Fields trade above), and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool. As of the time of publication, the Bears possess #1 overall from Carolina and #5 overall themselves.

Here we go again.

#1: USC QB Caleb Williams

The trade offers will be massive. There will be opportunities to add multiple 1sts, plus other Day Two picks.

I can't pretend to know how to evaluate QBs. I thought Patrick Mahomes was radioactive and wouldn't have touched him. Big whoops! Regardless, Williams has the pedigree and ludicrous production, despite the hilarious shortcomings of his collegiate defenses. Take the top prospect, reset the rookie salary at QB, and give the new coach his new QB, this time with a good offensive line and plus receiving targets.

Bears trade #5 to Green Bay for #20, #38, and #51

This one stings. With Marvin Harrison Jr. off the board, trading down with this pick is significantly more attractive than it otherwise would've been. In this case, the trade stings as the Bears hand the Packers a potential star LT in Penn State's Olu Fashanu, but these three picks are three starters.

Bears trade #20 and #128 to New England for #34, #162, and a 2025 1st

It's a weird trade to wrap your mind around...but when we get to that 2025 1st, it's way too much to pass up. That New England pick could end up in the top 10. New England moved up for Michigan QB JJ McCarthy; perhaps this pick could be in the top 5!

Bears trade #34 to Arizona for #35 and #200

Arizona came up for Bo Nix. I had no interest in Bo Nix.

#35: South Carolina WR Xavier Legette

DK Metcalf 2.0. Legette gives Williams another big, fast target to pair with DJ Moore. I suspect he'll be a first rounder by May, but for now, he lasts this long.

Bears trade #38 and #133 to Tennessee for #39 and #101

Trading down one spot to move up a round later? Yes please!

#39: Ohio State DE J.T. Tuimoloau

JTT has the physical traits of a monster star and the production of a solid regular. This is a great spot for him.

Bears trade #51 and #162 to Atlanta for #53 and a 2025 3rd

Easy choice, yet again. Atlanta came up for Texas QB Quinn Ewers. The storylines comparing Fields and Ewers -- two QBs traded to the Falcons by the Bears -- to Williams will be fascinating.

#53: Miami DT Leonard Taylor

I won't be surprised if Poles elects to pass on another potential 3 technique early in favor of a developmental prospect, but Taylor is tremendous value here.

Bears trade #71 to Tampa Bay for #76 and a 2025 4th

Tampa Bay came up for Michael Penix Jr.

#76: Utah S Cole Bishop

Bishop sure looks like an early-to-mid second rounder come draft day, but as of now, he's available here. Holy smokes, what a great looking, crazy athletic prospect.

#84: Rutgers CB Max Melton

Melton is seriously intense and a great fit in the Bears' budding CB room. He also provides nice insurance in case Jaylon Johnson bolts after playing on the tag this year.

#90: Penn State DE Adisa Isaac

Isaac is about 25 pounds lighter than JTT, but he has been extremely productive with a lanky frame. He's likely a third down specialist early in his career but his frame looks capable of holding another 15 pounds. If that happens, he's an every down player.

#101: Iowa TE Luke Lachey

When Iowa TEs come available, just take them, especially when an injury causes them to drop about a full round lower than they should be.

#102: Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie

I have no idea where Amegadjie will end up come May. And no, I hadn't heard of him until recently. Holy moly, he's an idyllic looking prospect here. He has the frame of an NFL left tackle and moves extremely well. He's a small school OT prospect with starting experience at both LG and LT. He tore his quad in October, so he likely won't be able to test at the Combine. Still, there's a whole lot to like here as both an insurance policy for LT Braxton Jones and a versatile backup across the line. He's going to be one of my favorite prospects through this draft cycle.

#200: Texas A&M WR Muhsin Muhammad III

Little Moose doesn't play like his dad, but he has a sufficiently interesting profile here. He reminds me a lot of former Penn State WR Parker Washington in the way that he moves. I doubt his athletic profile will suffice for Poles, but who knows?

Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:

1st (NE)

1st (CHI)

2nd (CAR)

2nd (CHI)

3rd (ATL)

3rd (CHI)

4th (ARZ)

4th (CHI)

5th (CHI)

6th (CHI)

6th (MIA)

Final Roster

New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, Khari Blasingame

TE (4): Cole Kmet, Luke Lachey, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Scott, Muhsin Muhammad III, Equanimeous St. Brown

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Kiran Amegadjie, Larry Borom

OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ja'Tyre Carter

C   (1): Connor Williams

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunter, J.T. Tuimoloau, DeMarcus Walker, Adisa Isaac

DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Leonard Taylor, FREE AGENT

ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Max Melton

S    (5): Jaquan Brisker, Kyle Dugger, Cole Bishop, Elijah Hicks, Jaylon Jones

ST (3): Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales

At the end of my last mock, I found myself wishing that I had taken Bishop in the 2nd. The combination of trade hauls, added roster depth, and, most importantly, support for Williams makes this a real win.

Melton is the only pick that looks a little out of place; I probably felt the sting of all the secondary injuries this year.

The added line talent on both sides of the ball is tremendously encouraging. Turns out that adding nine picks in the top 102 makes the roster look much better. Want to smile? There would be another six coming in 2025.

Chicago Bears 2024 Mock Offseason - November 2023 Edition

No lengthy intro to this one. Here's my mock offseason as of November 2023.

Internal Decisions

The Bears have a few big salary cap decisions looming. The most notable decisions, along with my choice on each player, are as follows:

• S Eddie Jackson: $18.14M cap hit, $5.58M dead cap
• Decision: CUT
• C Cody Whitehair: $13.25M cap hit, $4.104M dead cap
• Decision: CUT
• DE DeMarcus Walker: $8.667M cap hit, $4.134M dead cap
• Decision: KEEP
• WR Velus Jones Jr.: $1.474M cap hit, $0.556M dead cap
• Decision: CUT
• RB Travis Homer: $2.125M cap hit, $0.225M dead cap
• Decision: CUT

The Bears currently have $1.859M in dead money for 2024, so adding in the cuts of Jackson, Whitehair, Jones, and Homer, that number grows to $12.324M.

With an adjusted cap of $245.830M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $145.396M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $96.434M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Justin Fields

I remain all-in on Fields...but I think the writing is on the wall. Ryan Poles seems likely to move on from Matt Eberflus this offseason and any new coach will want a new quarterback. So, Poles gives his new coach that opportunity by creating a vacancy, trading Fields to the Falcons for Atlanta's 2025 2nd and Jacksonville's 2024 3rd from the Calvin Ridley trade. Fields becomes a star in Atlanta. The 2025 pick could have conditions on it that make it a 1st or a 3rd depending on certain outcomes, but this feels like the proper basic framework.

Free Agency

The Bears find themselves with a few glaring holes entering 2024. Thankfully, they line up quite well with the strength of the free agent class.

First, the easiest choice: franchise tag Jaylon Johnson, then try to work out an extension. Let's assume the tag is about $20 million on a one-year deal.

The most obvious: C. It's been a disaster for years. Thankfully, the best C in the league -- Miami's Connor Williams -- is a free agent and the Dolphins are more than $20 million over the cap with a bunch of key free agents. The Bears could also target Tyler Biadasz from Dallas or Lloyd Cushenberry from Denver, but go for the best. Bears sign Williams to a five-year, $65 million deal with $30 million guaranteed.

The previous most obvious spot: DE. But the acquisition of Montez Sweat changes the urgency here. The defense doesn't work when it's unable to get pressure by the defensive linemen. With Sweat in tow, the pass rush has improved. But it could certainly get even better. Here's my preference list for 2024:

1. Josh Allen (Jacksonville)
2. Chase Young (San Francisco)
3. Brian Burns (Carolina)
4. Danielle Hunter (Minnesota)
5. Josh Uche (New England)

The franchise tag figures to take a bite out of that market, but some unexpected players reach free agency every year. We'll see who it is in 2024. The Bears will need to be at the top of the list for all free agents. If Allen reaches free agency, back up the Brinks truck. But he won't, so the Bears sign Danielle Hunter to a three-year, $60 million deal with $35 million guaranteed. It's a nice deal to bridge the Bears to their next edge who hopefully comes in via the draft.

After DE, the Bears need to find a new starting S opposite Jaquan Brisker. Eddie Jackson simply can't stay on the field. While he could be brought back on a dramatically reduced contract, it seems more likely that the Poles regime elects to go another way. Again, thankfully, free agency offers great options on the strength of the 2nd round of the 2020 draft:

1. Antoine Winfield Jr. (Tampa Bay)
2. Geno Stone (Baltimore)
3. Grant Delpit (Cleveland)
4. Kyle Dugger (New England)
5. Jeremy Chinn (Carolina)
6. Xavier McKinney (New York Giants)

I'll guess that the Bears avoid the top of that market and nab McKinney on a three-year, $36 million deal with $20 million guaranteed.

Finally, we get to the gaping hole in the wide receiver room left by Chase Claypool's, well, whatever that was and Darnell Mooney's flop of a walk year. The Bears likely don't need to find another star in free agency thanks to the overwhelming presence of D.J. Moore and the relative lack of stars in free agency. Still, they probably need to find another #2/3 before reaching draft day. The options:

1. Michael Pittman (Indianapolis)
2. Marquise Brown (Arizona)
3. Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville)
4. Curtis Samuel (Washington)
5. Darnell Mooney (Chicago)
6. Tee Higgins (Cincinnati)
7. Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati)

I love Pittman, but he'll surely get slapped with the franchise tag. So, instead, let's say that the Bears bring back Mooney on a one-year, $10 million deal.

Regardless of coaching staff or scheme, I think WR Equanimeous St. Brown returns on a one-year, $2 million deal.

There would surely be other free agent additions beyond these big three, but we're likely talking about depth options.

Draft

The main purpose for this article, as it will be every time. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, an extra 3rd from Jacksonville (per the Fields trade above), and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool. As of the time of publication, the Bears possess #1 overall from Carolina and #4 overall themselves.

Here we go again.

#1: USC QB Caleb Williams

The trade offers will be massive. There will be opportunities to add multiple 1sts, plus other Day Two picks.

I can't pretend to know how to evaluate QBs. I thought Patrick Mahomes was radioactive and wouldn't have touched him. Big whoops! Regardless, Williams has the pedigree and ludicrous production, despite the hilarious shortcomings of his collegiate defenses. Take the top prospect, reset the rookie salary at QB, and give the new coach his new QB.

Bears trade #4 to Tennessee for #10, #41, and a 2025 2nd

This is the most interesting and important decision for Poles to make assuming he consummates a Fields trade. In this mock, I received an idyllic offer from Tennesse that I ultimately took. But that only applies in a situation where the top three picks are Williams, North Carolina QB Drake Maye, and Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. If MHJ makes it to #4, I'm taking him. Passing on Penn State LT Olu Fashanu was tough, but Braxton Jones has really emerged.

Bears trade #10 and #100 to New Orleans for #12 and #49

Too many good players on the board still not to take this deal. In particular, I planned to take one of LSU WR Malik Nabers, Florida State WR Keon Coleman, or Florida State DE Jared Verse.

#12: LSU WR Malik Nabers

Well, Coleman and Verse went off at #10 and #11, so Nabers is the guy. He looks an awful lot like DJ Moore. He may turn into a psychopath if he doesn't get 200 targets a year, but the hit rate on #1 WRs from LSU is very high.

#41: Ohio State DE J.T. Tuimoloau

JTT has the physical traits of a monster star and the production of a solid regular. This is a great spot for him.

#49: Arizona OT Jordan Morgan

Morgan would've been a 1st-round-pick without an ACL tear in 2022. This is a great spot for him and adds an essential depth piece while providing insurance in case Braxton Jones backslides.

#68: Ohio State DT Michael Hall Jr.

Hall has been inconsistent but has the makings of a 3 technique to thrive in a 4-3 defense. This presumes that the basic structure of the defense remains without a formational shift to a 3-4.

#90: Washington WR Jalen McMillan

McMillan is a far cry from teammate Rome Odunze and he might just be a product of the Huskies' high-flying offense...but maybe not. He's worth a shot here.

#128: Iowa TE Luke Lachey

When Iowa TEs come available, just take them, especially when an injury causes them to drop about 50 slots lower than they should be.

#132: Arkansas S Hudson Clark

The former walk-on moves well with a big frame. It's a good time to add a body to the secondary.

Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:

1st (CHI)

2nd (CAR)

2nd (CHI)

2nd (TEN)

3rd (CHI)

4th (CHI)

5th (CHI)

6th (CHI)

6th (MIA)

Final Roster

New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, Khari Blasingame

TE (4): Cole Kmet, Luke Lachey, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Malik Nabers, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Scott, Jalen McMillan, Equanimeous St. Brown

OT (4): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, Jordan Morgan, Larry Borom

OG (3): Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Ja'Tyre Carter

C   (1): Connor Williams

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunter, J.T. Tuimoloau, DeMarcus Walker, Dominique Robinson

DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens, Michael Hall Jr., FREE AGENT

ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Josh Blackwell

S    (5): Jaquan Brisker, Xavier McKinney, Elijah Hicks, Hudson Clark, Jaylon Jones

ST (3): FREE AGENT, Gill, Scales

At the end of the mock, I found myself wishing that I had taken Minnesota S Tyler Nubin or Utah S Cole Bishop instead of Morgan...which is exactly what a Bears fan would say. No: add the offensive lineman to help your young QB by ensuring that you avoid nightmarish holes when injuries invariably arise.

The defense still feels like it is one impact DT short of being where I want it to be, but otherwise it's in good shape. The offense, on the other hand, has a chance to be special.

Penn State Football Prepares for Another Disappointing Tilt with the Michigan Wolverines

Well, here we are again. Another Penn State-Michigan game is upon us and, yet again, the game comes with serious Big Ten and even national implications. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 of every meaningful ranking system. In both Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings and Jeff Sagarin's computer ratings, Michigan is 1st with Penn State 5th. Michigan is 3rd in the current College Football Playoff rankings with Penn State 10th. Both teams are one spot higher in both the AP and Coaches polls. Simply put, both teams are very highly regarded.

Of course, they've taken different paths to get here. Penn State has played what can be considered, more or less, a relatively standard Big Ten schedule thus far. In addition to a handful of cakewalks, Penn State has played the following teams with the following SP+ rankings:

• #3 Ohio State
• #34 Iowa
• #37 Maryland
• #49 West Virginia

Conversely, Michigan has played...ummm...well, here are their top four opponents thus far per SP+:

• #51 Minnesota
• #53 Rutgers
• #54 Nebraska
• #72 Michigan State

Michigan's schedule has been so egregiously bad so far that six of their nine opponents rank among the bottom half of all 128 FBS squads: #72 Michigan State, #73 UNLV, #88 Purdue, #95 Indiana, #105 Bowling Green, and #117 East Carolina. Sadly, the CFP committee has consistently held the same position with regard to teams with horrific schedules like Michigan's to date: no problem. Just don't lose more than once.

For most teams with such a schedule, the argument that "they haven't played anybody!" would hold lots of water. However, that just doesn't work here. Michigan is coming off of a combined 25-1 regular season record in the prior two seasons, and featured top-15 recruiting classes in 2020 (#10), 2021 (#13), and 2022 (#9). While Michigan is slipping on the recruiting trail -- they ranked 17th in 2023 and are currently 15th in 2024 -- that doesn't matter for this game. They're loaded and ultra productive.

Organizational Malpractice: Ryan Poles and the Bears Trade for Montez Sweat

Montez Sweat is a good football player. He plays a position -- defensive end -- where the Chicago Bears sorely lack for good football players. In a vacuum, acquiring a player like Montez Sweat would seemingly be a good thing.

In reality, acquiring Montez Sweat amounts to organizational malpractice and an all-too-early beginning of the end for the tenure of Ryan Poles as Bears general manager.

As with any acquisition, there are two considerations to make with the trade for Sweat: (i) a determination of what the Bears acquired, and (ii) the cost of doing so. Let's take each prong separately.

Sweat as an Asset

Sweat entered the NFL in 2019 as the 26th overall pick out of Mississippi State. Sweat began his career at Michigan State before being kicked off the team for using marijuana and stealing a bike; not exactly long-term red flags. After a highly productive stint in Starkville, Sweat entered the draft with elite athleticism -- securing a 9.9 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine -- and a 6'6", 260 lbs. frame to hold up in the NFL. And Sweat has done just that. While he has never wowed the NFL, Sweat has steadily produced between five and nine sacks each season of his career, even in 2021 when he missed seven games between a fractured jaw and a positive COVID test.

On the field, Sweat has been a strong, regular presence. Sweat has consistently produced above-average and sometimes elite run defense. Of course, it's 2023 and pass rushers are the ones who really get paid. Sweat hasn't blown away the league with his prowess on the end of the line, but he has proved roughly average in that aspect of the game. Add it together and you have an above-average starting defensive end. Sweat is a very good player.

The above omits four crucial considerations when discussing Sweat as an asset, so let's address them here:

1. Availability. Sweat has been remarkably available during his career, only missing games for the aforementioned jaw and COVID issues.
2. Age. Sweat turned 27 in September 2023.
3. Situation in Washington. Sweat spent his entire tenure in Washington playing alongside blue chip defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne and most of his time in D.C. with fellow blue chip defensive end Chase Young on the other side of the line.
4. Contract. Sweat is currently playing on his fifth-year option and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after the season.

The Cost

Sweat is a good starting defensive end. Unfortunately for the Bears, they paid for him to be a superstar. The pick that the Bears traded for Sweat will almost certainly be in the top-10 picks of the second round. The average pick value for a selection in the 33-42 range is 526 points.

Just how valuable is that?

When the Bears acquired Khalil Mack, they sent the Raiders #24 (740), #19 (875), #81 (185), and #196 (13) for #43 (470) and #226 (2). (Those pick values aren't discounted because, well, I think that pick discounting is absurd; while those future picks were worth less to Ryan Pace and the 2018 Bears, they were worth the exact same amount to the Bears franchise.) The Bears sent picks valued at 1,813 and received picks worth 472 for a net draft pick outlay of 1,341. That's equivalent to the #9 overall pick. In the end, that looks like a rather significant underpay for the future Hall of Famer, even before considering the whiff that those picks became for the Raiders and after considering the massive contract required to mollify Mack. When we account for pick #48 coming back to the Bears when they shipped Mack to the Chargers in 2022 (420 additional points coming back), the net outlay drops to 921 points, akin to the 18th overall pick.

Said another way: the Bears shipped out 39% as much draft value for Montez Sweat as they did for Khalil Mack (57% if you include the 2022 2nd) and will be required to give Sweat a similarly massive contract to keep him.

The Bears smartly negotiated with Mack simultaneously with agreeing to the trade compensation with the Raiders; when the trade was done, so was the extension. Not so with Sweat. As a result, Sweat has the Bears over the barrel. He has an incredible amount of leverage over the Bears, further enhanced by Chicago's baffling interactions with cornerback Jaylon Johnson to date. The Bears simply cannot afford to let Sweat and Johnson both reach the franchise tag deadline without being extended and risk losing one for nothing. Both players know this. We saw this play out with the Giants last year and the result was an outrageous four-year deal for subpar quarterback Daniel Jones that included $92 million guaranteed just so the team could slap the tag on star running back Saquon Barkley.

It boggles my mind that Poles completed the trade for Sweat without the framework of an extension in place. What in the world?

I think Sweat will end up signing with the Bears for $120 million over five years with $65 million guaranteed. This is a hair under the contract that Joey Bosa signed with the Chargers a couple of years ago.

Add up the the brutal cost of a lost top-40 player on a rookie contract plus a market rate extension and there's no sugarcoating it: the Bears paid an astronomical price to get Sweat. The fact that Sweat offers no value to the 2023 Bears makes this even more painful.

But then there's the fact that Sweat's former teammate and follow defensive end, Chase Young, was shipped out a couple of hours later for a substantially less valuable pick makes the trade even more galling. On the draft value chart, San Francisco's compensatory pick figures to be worth about 112 points versus the 526 points the Bears surrendered. Ugh. It's even more remarkable when considering that San Francisco will likely turn Young into a compensatory third-round pick in 2025 to replace the one they traded for Young.

We've heard plenty about how Poles plans to build through the draft. Unfortunately, his actions tell a different story: much like his predecessor, Poles has shown a fundamental lack of understanding value in transactions, instead locking onto his guy to ensure that he brings in his specific player, seemingly without regard to cost.

Much has been made of the new class of the NFC North in Detroit and the culture the Lions have built. To be fair, I'm a huge fan of Coach Dan Campbell and would much prefer to have his intense personality leading the Bears. But, more than anything else, the Lions have been successful in the most predictable way: they've gobbled up way more draft picks than they Bears.

The chart above includes the last four draft classes since those players would still be on their rookie deals. I included 2024 as it pertains to this discussion. Had I gone back to 2019, it would've been even uglier.

If we add up the aggregate pick point value for the Lions from the first four rounds of 2020-24, they have accumulated 14,776 points. Even though the Bears are currently slated to have both #2 and #3 overall next year, their total will be just 11,346. That 3,430 point difference is akin to the #1 overall pick plus the #47 overall pick. If we only tally 2020-23 to reflect players currently on rosters, well, shield your eyes: the Lions have 13,554 versus just 6,179 for the Bears. My God. That gap of 7,375 is equal to two #1 overall picks plus the #8 overall pick. If it feels like the Lions roster is multiple stars ahead of the Bears, that's because it is.

(The Lions admittedly have less cap space heading into 2024 than the Bears and seem likely to throw a foolish monster extension at Jared Goff, but they're so loaded that it isn't likely to slow down the train in the immediate future.)

I'm sure that I'll find a way to get excited about the 2024 Bears again at some point in the coming months. It'll be especially helpful if Poles manages to keep Sweat and Johnson while adding at least one premium defensive lineman in free agency among the following list: defensive ends Josh Allen, Brian Burns, Chase Young, Danielle Hunter, and defensive tackles Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins. Unfortunately, all four of Allen, Burns, Jones, and Wilkins will almost surely be franchise tagged if not earlier extended. That might leave only Young and Hunter as potential free agency fits.

But it's hard to be optimistic right now. The Bears have massive holes at defensive end even if Sweat gets extended, center, defensive tackle, cornerback (if Johnson leaves), safety (once Eddie Jackson gets cut), wide receiver #2, and wide receiver #3. That leaves a lot of holes to fill and doesn't address that quarterback and left tackle are arguably the two most important spots on the offense with the Bears lacking slam-dunk options. So it's possible that Poles solves the above issues by extending Sweat, extending Johnson, signing Young or Hunter, signing Tyler Biadasz or drafting one of Georgia's Sedrick Van Pran or West Virginia's Zach Frazier to play center, signing one of Antoine Winfield Jr./Kyle Dugger/Jeremy Chinn/Xavier McKinney to play alongside Jaquan Brisker at safety, and signing one of Michael Pittman Jr./Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd to join DJ Moore at wide receiver...that's a lot.

Most importantly, Poles has lost the benefit of the doubt when it comes to his decision making. 

In the end, Sweat's acquisition is a significant net negative move for the Bears franchise. It will be nearly impossible for Sweat to live up to the acquisition cost when adding the pick value and the expected contract together. Even if Sweat proves to be productive on the field, continues to avoid injury, and ages well into his early 30s, it's basically unfathomable that he could justify such a lavish outlay of resources.

Chicago Bears 2024 Mock Offseason

After the Bears' excruciating loss to the Broncos to kick off the month of October, Matt Eberflus's squad traveled to Washington and obliterated the Commanders on a short week. The Bears were led by an immaculate performance from QB1, Justin Fields.

However, there's no sugarcoating that the Chicago offense continued to look dreadful in the game. A stop unit that figured to be below average anyway in 2023 couldn't afford the barrage of injuries that gutted the secondary in September, and the results have been predictable: the poor defensive line combined with scrubs on the back end has meant easy pickings for opposing offenses.

As fun as Thursday's win was, the Bears appear destined for another long season with only a few wins ahead. The hope here remains that Justin Fields continues to improve -- much as he has done each year thus far -- while key young players like RT Darnell Wright, LT Braxton Jones, WR Tyler Scott, CB Tyrique Stevenson, CB Terrell Smith, DT Gervon Dexter, and DT Zacch Pickens show that they can be reliable contributors in 2024 and beyond.

At this unique moment in time, the Bears find themselves projected to hold both the #1 and #2 overall picks in next year's draft thanks to their March deal with Carolina. While it seems extremely unlikely that the Bears end the season with those top two picks and even less likely that the Bears end up with those two picks in a year where Fields more fully establishes himself as The One, it could happen. I'm going to pretend that the Bears live in that world because hey, it's fun!

So here's a look at how the 2024 offseason could go with an eye on winning in a meaningful way in 2024.

Internal Decisions

The Bears have a few big salary cap decisions looming. The most notable decisions, along with my choice on each player, are as follows:

• S Eddie Jackson: $18.14M cap hit, $5.58M dead cap
• Decision: CUT
• C Cody Whitehair: $13.25M cap hit, $4.104M dead cap
• Decision: KEEP through draft, then CUT if replaced
• DE DeMarcus Walker: $8.667M cap hit, $4.134M dead cap
• Decision: KEEP
• RB Travis Homer: $2.125M cap hit, $0.225M dead cap
• Decision: CUT

The Bears currently have $1.78M in dead money for 2024, so adding in the cuts of Jackson, Whitehair, and Homer, that number grows to $11.689M.

With an adjusted cap of $251.476M, allocating $4M to the practice squad, and accounting for $119.31M of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter next offseason with approximately $116.477M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Free Agency

The Bears find themselves with a few glaring holes entering 2024. Thankfully, they line up quite well with the strength of the free agent class.

The most obvious: DE. The defense doesn't work when it's unable to get pressure by the defensive linemen and, well, the 2022 and 2023 defenses have been entirely unable to get pressure with four. So, let's fix that. Here's my preference list for 2024:

1. Josh Allen (Jacksonville)
2. Chase Young (Washington)
3. Montez Sweat (Washington)
4. Brian Burns (Carolina)
5. Rashan Gary (Green Bay)
6. Danielle Hunter (Minnesota)
7. Josh Uche (New England)

The franchise tag figures to take a bite out of that market, but some unexpected players reach free agency every year. We'll see who it is in 2024. The Bears will need to be at the top of the list for all free agents.

After DE, the Bears need to find a new starting S opposite Jaquan Brisker. Eddie Jackson simply can't stay on the field. While he could be brought back on a dramatically reduced contract, it seems more likely that the Poles regime elects to go another way. Again, thankfully, free agency offers great options on the strength of the 2nd round of the 2020 draft:

1. Antoine Winfield Jr. (Tampa Bay)
2. Kyle Dugger (New England)
3. Jeremy Chinn (Carolina)
4. Xavier McKinney (New York Giants)

Finally, we get to the gaping hole in the wide receiver room left by Chase Claypool's, well, whatever that was. The Bears likely don't need to find another star in free agency thanks to the overwhelming presence of D.J. Moore and the relative lack of stars in free agency. Still, they probably need to find another #2/3 before reaching draft day. The options:

1. Darnell Mooney (Chicago)
2. Michael Pittman (Indianapolis)
3. Marquise Brown (Arizona)
4. Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville)
5. Curtis Samuel (Washington)
6. Tee Higgins (Cincinnati)
7. Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati)

I assume that Allen, Sweat, Burns, Gary and Pittman all get slapped with the franchise tag. So, instead, let's say that the Bears ink the following deals:

• DE Chase Young: 5 years, $115M, $52M guaranteed
• S   Antoine Winfield Jr.: 4 years, $62M, $33M guaranteed
• WR Darnell Mooney: 4 years, $54M, 27M guaranteed
• DT Andrew Billings: 3 years, $18M, $8M guaranteed

If Jaylon Johnson enjoys a nice recovery in his return from injury later this year, he could find his way back onto this chart. The longer he stays out, however, the more likely it is that the front office rolls with Tyrique Stevenson and Terrell Smith outside with Kyler Gordon in the slot.

There would surely be other free agent additions beyond these big three, but we're likely talking about depth options at CB, S, and RB.

Draft

The main purpose for this article. The Bears have their own picks in the 1st-5th rounds, an extra 1st from Carolina, and an extra 4th from Philadelphia. This mock was completed using Pro Football Network's mock draft tool.

Here. We. Go.

Bears TRADE #1 to Las Vegas for #3, #42, #73, a 2025 1st, and a 2025 2nd

This year's whooper of a deal. This is the Caleb Williams effect. Numerous teams figure to attempt to overwhelm Poles in order to get their hands on Williams, but Las Vegas has a huge leg up here in that their pick enables the Bears to draft their top two non-QBs.

#2: Penn State LT Olu Fashanu

LT is not the Bears' biggest need. Far from it. If this pick was based on need, it would be Florida State DE Jared Verse or Alabama DE Dallas Turner. But that's not what you do at #2. If there's a star LT to pair with your young star QB for the next decade, take him!

#3: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

See above. MHJ is probably the top WR prospect since the A.J. Green/Julio Jones draft and arguably since Calvin Johnson. He is a true generational talent. Pairing Harrison with Moore gives Fields a pair of ace receivers to target while throwing behind a line with true bookend tackles. Even the thought is wild.

Bears Trade #34 to New England for #38 and #100

There are still plenty of strong targets here, and the #100 pick is a possible starter.

#38: UCLA DE Laiatu Latu

This doubles as filling a massive need, but the value is solid. Latu can play right away.

#42: Georgia C Sedrick Van Pran

He's going to show up in just about every mock I do, except for those when he comes off the board in the 1st round, in which case we're looking at you, West Virginia's Zach Frazier. But hopefully Van Pran becomes the key new pivot for Chicago.

#65: Clemson DT Ruke Orhorhoro

I don't love Orhorhoro -- certainly not like I loved Bryan Bresee last year -- but a huge, twitchy Clemson DL here just fits.

#73: Washington WR Jalen McMillan

McMillan doesn't look like he has star potential, but stepping into what would be an absurdly talented WR room, that's OK. He can be solid and continue to develop.

#98: Penn State DE Adisa Isaac

Isaac doesn't appear to have a star future, but he sure is long and twitchy.

#100: Iowa TE Luke Lachey

When Iowa TEs come available, just take them.

#128: North Carolina LB Cedric Gray

I didn't really want to take a linebacker, but Gray was far too much value here. Plus, Jack Sanborn has disappointed thus far in 2023, so a little extra pressure doesn't hurt.

Bears Trade #129 to Carolina for #150 and #164

I didn't have a clear pick, so I grabbed the extra.

#150: Iowa State T.J. Tampa

6'1", 200 lbs. with lots of athleticism.

#164: Illinois DT Keith Randolph Jr.

Obviously I'd much prefer to grab Jer'Zhan Newton, but that cost will likely prove prohibitive. Not so for Randolph.

Final Roster

New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:

QB (3): Fields, Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): Herbert, Johnson, FREE AGENT, Blasingame

TE (4): Kmet, Tonyan, Lachey, FREE AGENT

WR (6): Moore, Harrison, Mooney, McMillan, Scott, Jones

OT (4): Fashanu, Wright, Jones, Borom

OG (3): Jenkins, Davis, Carter

C   (1): Van Pran

DE (5): Young, Walker, Latu, Isaac, Robinson

DT (5): Billings, Dexter, Pickens, Orhorhoro, Randolph

ILB (1): Edmunds

OLB (4): Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell, Gray

CB (5): Stevenson, Smith, Gordon, Tampa, FREE AGENT

S    (5): Brisker, Winfield, Hicks, Jones, FREE AGENT

ST (3): FREE AGENT, Gill, Scales

The offense actually keeps eight starters the same, but the three additions -- Fashanu, Harrison, and Van Pran -- are all top-50 picks of the impact variety. The defense doesn't add a Day One starter via the draft -- something that I'd otherwise dub unacceptable -- but the additions of Young and Winfield are massively important and the depth added by four defensive line draftees continues the infusion of talent so badly needed for the Bears.

The biggest decision facing the Bears? Whether Braxton Jones is a true franchise LT in the making or not. If he isn't, Fashanu has to be the pick. But if he is, it opens up the team to take Jared Verse instead, pairing him with Young to form a fierce pass rushing tandem.

2023 Football Picks and Thoughts

I would've preferred to get this written by last week, but a busy life combined with taking my big girls to their first home game at Beaver Stadium prevented that from happening. Alas, as will be made abundantly clear below, I'm owning up to my preseason thoughts. In no particular order, here goes:

College

1. The CFP race seems wide open...and I think that favors the bluest of blue bloods. A ton of top teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, including Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Penn State. This figures to favor other top schools with returning QBs like Michigan, USC, LSU, Florida State, Washington, and Oregon. But more than that, I figure that this favors the teams that have dominated recruiting rankings in recent years. Thus, my picks for the playoff: Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State.
1. This aged very poorly. Way to go, Clemson!
2. Deion Sanders is going to work at Colorado but it's going to take some time. There's no way to churn that much of your roster and enjoy success immediately. They'll surely be humbled in their opener at TCU. And I suspect that 2023 will go very poorly, even if Deion manages to eclipse the 3.5-win over/under in year one.
1. This also aged very poorly. Big yikes! Travis Hunter might be the best football player this century.
3. The B1G East is going to go out with a bang. While I despire the explosion of the B1G, SEC, and ACC, one big benefit is the end of the East-West divisions in the B1G. Absent an all-time upset, Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State will win the B1G and finalize the East's supremacy in winning its 10th of 10 B1G Championship Games this December. What a dumb setup. To be fair, this is only the case because Michigan and Ohio State have both made multiple CFP appearances while Penn State has enjoyed four top-10 finishes in the CFP era. This year appears no different. It's nearly impossible to see any of these three squads losing more than three games this year, and it seems most likely that the schools will only beat each other as they did in 2023. If that proves true, the stakes on October 21 (PSU @ OSU), November 11 (UM @ PSU), and November 25 (OSU @ UM) will be astronomical.
4. I continue to despie that the CFP Committee almost exclusively cares about wins and losses. Michigan's schedule is particularly embarrassing with a non-conference schedule that features East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green. Unfortunately, Michigan's schedule is objectively their best path to the CFP. If they split with OSU and PSU, Michigan is overwhelmingly likely to reach the CFP. I'm thankful that PSU scheduled a traditional rivalry game against West Virginia...but the other two non-conference games being FCS Delaware and UMass really stinks. Kudos to Ohio State for playing Notre Dame this year...bu the Committee has consistently said that this type of game is a bad idea because you might lose. That's stupid. A close loss for OSU against Notre Dame should be worth significantly more than whatever Michigan does against UNLV or PSU does against Delaware.
5. I still think Mel Tucker is a bad coach. I'll never forgive him for what he did to the Bears defense a decade ago. That said, Michigan State could win four games or eight games just as easily. Their schedule is brutal and their talent is modest. MSU is likely behind Maryland in the East so they desperately need to come in ahead of Indiana and Rutgers. Last year's squad went 3-6 in the B1G and all three wins (Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana) were of the one-score variety. It's wild to think that Tucker's group was ranked #11 this time last year. If I was forced to bet, I'd bet on MSU going 5-7 and missing a bowl...yet I'm still terrified of Penn State's visit to Ford Field on Black Friday thanks to years of sorcery from Mark Dantonio.
6. Michigan's schedule is difficult to fathom. This deserves another note. It's eminently possible that Michigan won't face a team that ends the year with a winning record until mid-November. Michigan might be the best team in the country this year...but we won't find out for a couple of months. Here are the over/unders for their first nine opponents with each squad's preseason SP+ ranking among 133 FBS teams:
1. East Carolina: 5.5 (92nd)
2. UNLV: 5.5 (104th)
3. Bowling Green: 4.5 (119th)
4. Rutgers: 4.5 (83rd)
5. Nebraska: 6.5 (49th)
6. Minnesota: 7 (35th)
7. Indiana: 3.5 (81st)
8. Michigan State: 5 (57th)
9. Purdue: 5 (60th)
7. I'm extremely hopeful for Penn State in 2023. QB Drew Allar has to carry the load for Nittany to enjoy a special season, but even if Allar underwhelms (he sure didn't on Saturday), the Penn State roster is incredibly deep. RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen is as good of a tandem as exists nationally. The offensive line features experience and star power, particularly in LT Olu Fashanu. The defensive line should compete with everyone on the schedule...except for Michigan. The DL remains undersized and, thus, a terrible matchup for Michigan's beefy line. The LBs and DBs can truly play with anyone. If offseason weight gains for DTs Hakeem Beamon and Zane Durant prove legitimate and enable them to stand up against plus rushing attacks, the sky is the limit for Penn State. Thankfully, the schedule offers the opportunity to both ease into the season's toughest games and avoid a murderer's row in October as has been the case in numerous recent years. Nevertheless, the most likely outcome is a very good Penn State team that might even host a first-round playoff game in a 12-team format once again misses out on the final four, in part due to marginal costs associated with their subpar kicking game.
8. Ohio State's talent level will ultimately be too much. It's easy to forget that OSU was an indoor field goal away from winning the championship in 2022. They went toe to toe with an absolutely loaded Georgia team. They need to replace CJ Stroud, but between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown, the Buckeyes are choosing between elite prospects. OSU might struggle at OT for a few games, but by the time they host Penn State and especially when they travel to Ann Arbor, they'll be clicking.
9. B1G Picks. I didn't check individual schedules to confirm that the numbers add up, so don't take this to the bank.
1. East
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. Michigan (11-1)
3. Penn State (10-2)
4. Maryland (7-5)
5. Michigan State (5-7)
6. Rutgers (5-7)
7. Indiana (3-9)
2. West
1. Wisconsin (9-3)
2. Iowa (9-3)
3. Minnesota (7-5)
4. Nebraska (6-6)
5. Illinois (5-7)
6. Purdue (3-9)
7. Northwestern (3-9)

NFL

1. The Detroit Lions should run away with the NFC North. It felt weird to type that. The Lions are absolutely loaded compared to their competition. Their offensive line is the class of the North, especially the tackles. Their defensive front is solid and extremely deep, led by a budding star in Aidan Hutchinson. The back seven looks solid. Even though I think drafting Jack Campbell at 18th overall was a wild reach, I'm a big fan of Campbell the player and expect him to produce immediately. If this was any team other than the Lions, I'd peg them for 12 wins. But it's the Lions. They'll have to actually win the division before anyone can pick them to do so.
1. I still think the Lions blew it by not finding a way to get a QB this year when they had a top-10 pick and another top-20 pick. They're going to find it exceptionally difficult to land a franchise QB in the coming years if Goff isn't the guy. And I don't think Goff is the guy. He played well last year behind a superb line with a strong rushing attack. Marrying yourself to a system QB at $50M/year is a recipe for disappointment.
2. The Packers look as wobbly as they have in my conscious lifetime, yet I still think they win the North. Perhaps I just hate myself. But I'm fully prepared for Jordan Love to throw for 4,000 yards en route to a 9-8 record that wins the division. Their front seven scares me.
3. The Vikings look mediocre but not bad. They're destined for more time in purgatory.
4. The Bears are ready to make a leap but not ready to contend. For some reason, many folks don't seem to understand the depth of the 2022 tank. The Bears gave dozens of starts to players who aren't starters or even second stringers for other clubs in 2023: Nick Morrow, Sam Mustipher, Al-Qadin Muhammad, Joe Thomas, Robert Quinn, Michael Schofield, DeAndre Houston-Carson, and Armon Watts all started at least four games in 2022 yet aren't listed in anyone's two deep. As for this year's squad, the camp injury to Teven Jenkins is a devastating blow as it results in the reinsertion of the dreadful Lucas Patrick into the starting lineup. Even with Patrick in the lineup, the offense has the tools to be a top-half unit this year and, even if Justin Fields doesn't improve at all, the sheer value of adding DJ Moore, Darnell Wright, Chase Claypool, Nate Davis, and Robert Tonyan to the rotation should yield a significantly more explosive offense. Unfortunately, the defense remains one offseason away. The back seven should be great and could be a top-5 unit in the league, but the front four looks below average at best and potentially very bad if a few things go wrong. In this era of football, a strong back seven is a huge boon; the secondary of Brisker-Johnson-Stevenson-Jackson-Gordon is young and explosive while the Edmunds-Edwards linebacking combination can ran, tackle, and range. The defensive line features four starters acquired via free agency, a testament to the impact of last year's tank. Whiffing on Javon Hargrave, Dre'Mont Jones, Dalvin Tomlinson, and even Sheldon Rankins and David Onyemata put the Bears in a bad spot. Justin Jones and Andrew Billings wouldn't start for contenders, nor would rookies Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens. The story is nearly identical on the edge with Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker both fringe starters who figure to play starter-level reps. Dominique Robinson and Rasheem Green offer below-average bodies behind them. Add it all up and the Bears figure to feature a bottom-5 defensive line. Combined with the back seven, that's a recipe for competence, not success.
5. So, my NFC North pick:
1. Packers (9-8)
2. Lions (9-8)
3. Vikings (8-9)
4. Bears (6-11)
6. With a good offeason next winter, the Bears are well positioned to battle the Lions for supremacy in the North for the next few years. That would be very fun and far preferable to the Packers and Vikings continuing to dominate the division as they have for the last 17 years. Since the Bears lost the Super Bowl in February 2007, Chicago has made three playoff appearances in 16 years, winning just one playoff game (against a Seattle team with a losing record). Not to be outdone, Detroit has made only three playoff appearances in the 23 seasons this century and hasn't won a playoff game since 1991. It's about darn time.

Bears Thoughts in Advance of Day Two of the 2023 NFL Draft

I'm pleased with what the Bears did in the first round. But as with anything in life, there's more to it than that. So here goes:

1. Admittedly, I hoped that the Bears would acquire significantly more draft capital if they traded down from #9, but to be fair, I didn't envision the trade only sliding back one spot. An extra 2024 4th from a Super Bowl contender is technically something.
2. Not drafting Jalen Carter makes plenty of sense at this point. I'm sure that we'll hear in the coming years that the Bears took Carter off of their board entirely, hence the smokescreens in recent days that Carter would be the pick at #9 if he made it.
3. I'm happy that Peter Skoronski wasn't the pick. He was a great college player, but the value proposition for a G simply isn't there in the top-10.
4. Darnell Wright is a premium athlete at a premium spot that fills a massive need. That's good. It's not a perfect outcome, but it's very good.
5. Carter-Wright-Skoronski will be inextricably linked when fans evaluate this Bears draft class. Carter was the one chance for a plug-and-play 3 tech DT. With him off to Philly, the Bears defense has a low ceiling in 2023. Skoronski was the can't miss local kid. But the Bears went with Wright, eschewing those two. We'll see how it looks when they approach free agency near the end of the decade.

With the first round all wrapped up, I ran a Day Two mock draft for the Bears today. This draft was run with Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. All accepted trades were reviewed for reasonableness.

To say that this represents a best-case scenario understates just how ideal this outcome would be.

Here goes:

Bears trade #53 to Tampa Bay for #81, #82, and #196
All of my favorite DEs and my top two Cs were gone, so...trade down!

#61: Bears select Auburn DE Derick Hall
Hall isn't a prototype, but he possesses plenty of the necessary characteristics to be a plus starter in the future and a day one contributor. That'll work.

Bears trade #64 to Houston for #65, #259, and a 2024 5th

#65: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
I love so many of the players available in this range. But Dexter is the perfect combination of fit and roster need. A starting-caliber DT is absolutely essential for this roster and the depth options in the draft won't likely get the job done. I think that Dexter can be at least a serviceable 3 tech to start his career.

#81: Bears select Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton
There's no way Benton will last this long...but if he does, wow! I had a very difficult time choosing between Dexter and Benton, so getting both really changes the feel of this class.

#82: Bears select Iowa TE Sam LaPorta
LaPorta could be a mid-2nd or he could last until the end of day two. This would be a wonderful spot for the Bears to add my favorite TE.

#103: Bears select Ohio State DE Zach Harrison
Harrison never emerged as the star many expected him to be at Ohio State, but there's plenty to work with here.

#133: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown
If this pick comes down to Brown v. Tulane's Tyjae Spears, the Bears will be very happy with the outcome. I went with Brown.

#136: Bears select Purdue CB Corey Trice Jr.
I like Trice and he's a perfect addition to the roster at this spot. I don't think he's necessarily a starter from the get-go, but he has good tape and a stellar Combine. Extreme length plays well in this defense.

#148: Bears select Purdue WR Charlie Jones
This is a good spot for a receiver given the construction of the Bears roster. Jones is my favorite target. He's incredibly quick, plenty fast, and was insanely productive despite his slight frame. He's a security blanket in the making.

#196: Bears select Penn State C Juice Scruggs
Incredible value here. Scruggs and Doug Kramer might leave the Bears a little light at C, but if the club thinks he can start, this would be idyllic timing.

#218: Bears select Duke LB Shaka Heyward
Heyward should be able to make the roster and contribute on special teams. That's the right target here.

#258: Bears select Penn State TE Brenton Strange
Strange is extremely polarizing in draft circles. I loved watching him at Penn State, but never thought he had much of an NFL future. But at 258? Sure!

#259: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Fulfilling the prophecy that I created.

If the Bears completed the simulated draft above, they'd enter 2023 with the following roster, assuming cuts of Jones, Whitehair, and Lucas Patrick:

QB: Justin Fields, P.J. Walker
RB: Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman, Chase Brown, Travis Homer
FB: Khari Blasingame
WR: DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Charlie Jones, Velus Jones Jr., Equanimeous St. Brown
TE: Cole Kmet, Robert Tonyan, Sam LaPorta, Brenton Strange
OT: Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Alex Leatherwood
G: Teven Jenkins, Nate Davis, Larry Borom
C: Juice Scruggs, Doug Kramer

DE: DeMarcus Walker, Derick Hall, Zach Harrison, Rasheem Green, Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson
DT: Gervon Dexter, Keeanu Benton, Andrew Billings, Donovan Jeter
ILB: Tremaine Edmunds
OLB: T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Dylan Cole, Shaka Heyward
CB: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Kindle Vildor, Corey Trice Jr., Josh Blackwell
S: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker, Jaylon Jones, Elijah Hicks

ST: Jake Moody, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales 

Final Chicago Bears Pre-Draft Thoughts and First Round Prediction

This draft will always be remembered as the one where the Bears -- both current and past -- tanked their way to the #1 overall pick (thanks Lovie!)...which GM Ryan Poles subsequently dealt in a masterful deal for a massive haul of picks and new #1 WR D.J. Moore. How Poles uses the picks will determine the future of the franchise even more than how well Moore meshes with QB Justin Fields.

With the draft set to kick off in a few hours, here are my final thoughts about the Bears' approach this weekend along with one final mock draft.

1. Missing out on a 3 technique DT in free agency really stings. Georgia DT Jalen Carter is the only plug-and-play option at that spot in this draft. His off-the-field concerns are significant; at this point, I suspect that he's either atop the Bears' draft board or off of it entirely. But on the field, he's head-and-shoulders ahead of my other favorite possibilities in Northwestern's Adetomiwa Adebawore (undersized, never played DT), Pitt's Calijah Kancey (undersized, very short arms), and Bowling Green's Karl Brooks (poor competition, played DE, very raw). Signing Javon Hargrave or Dre'Mont Jones would have come with their own risks, but doing so would've opened the door for Poles to wheel and deal more freely tonight. If Carter is on the board at #9, I suspect that he's the pick without another trade.
2. Missing out on RT in free agency is just as perplexing. Not paying Mike McGlinchy at a market-setting rate? Totally fine. Not grabbing someone like Kaleb McGary on a modest, short-term deal? Baffling. Unless Poles really loves Larry Borom or Alex Leatherwood -- and that's doubtful -- he needs to find a starting OT this weekend. Desperation oftentimes yields bad results. I don't like the OT options in this draft after the top three of Ohio State's Paris Johnson Jr., Georgia's Broderick Jones, and Tennessee's Darnell Wright. Syracuse's Matthew Bergeron and BYU's Blake Freeland would be fine, projectable options, but neither inspires confidence starting in Week One.
3. I really like the C position in this draft and that's especially true with Wisconsin's Joe Tippmann, a huge, athletic pivot. I like Minnesota's John Michael Schmitz, though I much prefer Tippmann given the age gap between them. If either is there at #53, they'll get strong consideration. There should be good depth options in the third round (Ohio State's Luke Wypler) and later (Penn State's Juice Scruggs).
4. There's salary cap efficiency with drafting new starters at DT and C. Cutting Justin Jones saves $4.9M against the cap and Cody Whitehair's exodus would save $5.8M. The Bears don't need this cap space, but being efficient with the cap is the way that all quality organizations operate. If Jones is the starting 3 tech, this defense will struggle again despite the strength of its back seven.
5. I've long felt that the Bears need to add two starting DEs, but I no longer think that's the case. In fact, drafting only one DE could be sufficient. Poles added depth nicely adding DeMarcus Walker and Rasheem Green to Trevis Gipson and Dominque Robinson. Adding two DEs would be fine with Green and Gipson both heading to free agency, but adding only one DE would be fine.
6. I really like the depth of this draft at CB, but I don't want to see the Bears draft one of the top CBs in the first round. Oregon's Christian Gonzalez and Illinois' Devon Witherspoon are good prospects -- especially Gonzalez -- but the Eberflus defense doesn't prioritze CB play. They need long CBs who don't necessarily need top-end speed. There are options on that front. My favorite? Miami's Tyrique Stevenson.
7. There are a dozen quality RBs in this draft. There's absolutely no reason to take one before Saturday. I like Chase Brown (Illinois), Tyjae Spears (Tulane), Israel Abanikanda (Pitt - a fast riser in my eyes), Tank Bigsby (Auburn), and Devon Achane (Texas A&M). Do NOT draft Bijan Robinson. If the Bears don't draft a RB at all, that's fine! Or Tulsa's Deneric Prince at the end of the 7th round? Great!
8. The TE spot is unbelievably deep. I figure that Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) and Dalton Kincaid (Utah) both go in the first round. The second round options -- Georgia's Darnell Washington, Oregon State's Luke Musgrave, and Iowa's Sam LaPorta -- are incredibly attractive, too. If one is available at 61/64, I'd love to see him join the Bears. Later options like Tucker Kraft (South Dakota State), Luke Schoonmaker (Michigan), Zack Kuntz (Old Dominion), and Brenton Strange (Penn State) are also very attractive. In particular, if Schoonmaker is available in the fourth or fifth round, he'd be a great pick. I really want one of these TEs on the club.
9. Draft Michigan K Jake Moody. Cut Cairo Santos. Santos is fine, but it's time for the Bears to grab a kicker with a big leg. That's Moody. Hopefully in the seventh.

Here's my final, draft day mock draft for the Bears. This draft was run with Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. All accepted trades were reviewed for reasonableness. For example, today's first mock featured three excellent trades for the Bears:

    Trade #1: Bears trade #9 to Tennessee for #11 and #72
    Trade #2: Bears trade #11 to New England for #14 and 2024 2nd
    Trade #3: Bears trade #14 and #72 to Washington for #16 and #47

But it's horribly unrealistic to trade down three times to get from #9 to #16. So that doesn't work.

Here goes:

Bears trade #9 to New York Jets for #15 and #43

#15: Bears select Tennessee OT Darnell Wright
I was tempted to trade down again with the Giants, sending #15 and #258 to New York for #25 and #57. But no. The desperate need at OT rears its head. And Wright is an ideal fit, so I kept the pick and made it.

#43: Bears select Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey
Kancey is a polarizing prospect. He's very small for a college DT, so he's positively miniscule for an NFL DT. His arms are multiple inches shorter than his nearest comp. But he's unbelievably quick and fast with a power body despite his stature. If he was two inches taller and his arms were two inches longer, he'd be a top-10 pick. At #43, it's worth the risk if he makes it this far.

#53: Bears select Wisconsin C Joe Tippmann
I'm a huge fan of Tippmann and this is a good spot for him. Unfortunately, the best pass rushing DEs were already gone by this point. Gulp.

#61: Bears select USC DE Tuli Tuipulotu
Tuipulotu is my least favorite of the top-100 edge rushers. I don't think he'll be quick enough to succeed as a pass rusher in the NFL. But he was quick enough for a 290-pounder last year and showed up at the Combine at 266. He'd be an intriguing option that should help in run defense. That's enough for me.

#64: Bears select Florida DT Gervon Dexter
I love so many of the players available in this range. But Dexter is the perfect combination of fit and roster need. Another starting-caliber DT is absolutely essential for this roster and the depth options in the draft won't likely get the job done.

#103: Bears select Mississippi WR Jonathan Mingo
I did not like this spot in the draft. I'm not a bing Mingo fan, but this is a solid spot for him. I'm surprised that Dante Pettis snagged $152,500 guaranteed from the Bears, but Mingo costs him his roster spot.

#133: Bears select Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker
An easy call. Finally. I love Schoonmaker as a prospect despite his alma mater. He's a perfect addition to the TE room from a pro offense with plenty of athleticism and blocking skill.

#136: Bears select Illinois RB Chase Brown
If this pick comes down to Brown v. Tulane's Tyjae Spears, the Bears will be very happy with the outcome. I went with Brown.

#168: Bears select Iowa CB Riley Moss
I like Moss a ton and he's a perfect addition to the roster at this spot. I don't think he's necessarily a starter from the get-go, but he has good tape and a stellar Combine. (I don't like that he ruined the Penn State-Iowa game for me in 2021.)

#218: Bears select Bowling Green DT Karl Brooks
Brooks played DE in the MAC, so he'd have a way to go before becomming a useful NFL DT. But he's a perfect ball of clay and in this scenario, he'd fit in wonderfully behind Kancey, Dexter, and Andrew Billings as a developmental piece.

#258: Bears select Michigan K Jake Moody
Fulfilling the prophecy that I created.