***Note: I wrote this post between the Packers loss and the Cardinals debacle, finalizing my edits only after the Arizona game. Just pretend it's last week when you're reading this.
I know that I'm not supposed to be happy or satisfied with a season-opening 31-23 loss to the Packers at home, and to be clear, I'm not. I am, however, pleasantly surprised after having imagined that the club would be completely trounced by Green Bay's powerful offense.
In the end, the Bears' defense proved no match for the Packers' attack, surrendering points on all but two possessions, and allowing Aaron Rodgers to post a sizzling QBR of 94.4, second to only explosive Titans' rookie Marcus Mariota. Only one NFL QB posted a QBR of higher than 77.4 last season (Dallas' Tony Romo at 83.6), so Rodgers' showing was truly exceptional...though it was, remarkably, a bit lower than last year's 98.2 in Green Bay's visit to Chicago. I guess that qualifies as improvement?
Anyway, the Bears' defense was truly dreadful, not even registering a single hit on Rodgers on the afternoon. It's going to be a painfully long season on that side of the ball.
On the other hand, the Chicago offense showed much of the promise that fans hoped for from the 2014 unit despite the worsened offensive line and the hobbled receiving corps. Jay Cutler played a strong game, at least until his backbreaking interception late in the fourth quarter. Still, the running of Matt Forte and the excellent run blocking of the offensive line provides reason for hope on that side of the ball.
With all of that said: the 2015 Bears aren't going anywhere. A wildly successful coaching job by John Fox, Adam Gase, and Vic Fangio will be required in order to keep the club from picking in the top ten in the 2016 draft. The 2015 team is going to lose a lot of games.
2016? The 2016 club could have some promise, but the inevitable divorce from Jay Cutler is coming, and with his dead money charge dropping from approximately $29M to $13M next year, I suspect that Cutler will be out of work in March. Cutler absolutely showed signs of growing into a top-tier starting quarterback from 2010-13, but between a slew of injuries and reversion to old, devastating habits, that dream was never fully realized. The 2016 Bears figure to have a new quarterback, and new quarterbacks almost never mean success.
So, to me, 2017 is the first time the Bears can hope to truly reach a high level of success. It will take lots and lots of work, especially from Fangio as he looks to build a defense from almost nothing, so here's a look at what general manager Ryan Pace might do in order to build that 2017 club examining each position and its relative need between now and then with the level of need indicating ranging from 1 (minimal need) to 10 (overwhelmingly desperate need).
Specialists
Current Players: Robbie Gould (K), Pat O'Donnell (P), Thomas Gafford (LS)
2017 Players: Gould (K), O'Donnell (P), UNKNOWN (LS)
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Gould is signed through 2017 with a manageable cap hit, and he continues to be among the most productive kickers in the league. O'Donnell is also signed through 2017 on his rookie deal, and he has produced effectively. While Gafford may or may not be the long snapper who sticks around, I have no doubt that the club can find a viable long snapper to fill the role.
The specialists are locked in.
Running Back
Current Players: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ka'Deem Carey
2017 Players: Forte, Langford, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: It probably seems strange to see a "1" above, but my expectation is that the Bears will give Forte a 2-3 year extension to keep him in orange and blue for the rest of his career. That may be an ill-advised choice given the aging curves of running backs, but Forte remains an elite back. Langford should have no trouble sticking around thanks to his speed and experience in a pro-style offense.
I'll be surprised if Carey lasts beyond this season; indeed, he likely only made this roster as a result of the injury to Senorise Perry at the end of the preseason. Still, with Forte and Langford likely on the roster moving forward, there's no real sense in addressing this position with assets.
If Forte leaves in free agency or unexpectedly retires, this need probably only jumps to a 4 given that Langford appears well-equipped to handle a feature back job.
Center
Current Players: Will Montgomery, Hroniss Grasu
2017 Players: Grasu
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Grasu was undoubtedly drafted by this regime to be the 2016 center; we sure better hope he handles that job in 2017, too.
Nose Tackle
Current Players: Jeremiah Ratliff, Eddie Goldman
2017 Players: Goldman, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 2
Analysis: Much like Grasu, Goldman was drafted to fill this exact job. Here's hoping he was the right pick (he was on my short list, so I hope so, too!). He will need a backup, but that should come from a late-round draft pick or an undrafted rookie.
Wide Receiver
Current Players: Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson, Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy
2017 Players: Jeffery, White, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 4
Analysis: This is a similar spot to the running back position group. I fully expect that the Bears will extend Jeffery with a deal that is similar to those signed by Dez Bryant, TY Hilton, Julio Jones, and AJ Green, Jeffery's peers. Such a deal would be somewhere in the range of $70M over five years with approximately $40M guaranteed. John Fox and Adam Gase enjoyed their greatest success when pairing Demaryius Thomas with Eric Decker, so I suspect that they will seek out the opportunity to replicate that lineup in Chicago, especially considering that the Bears will have the cap space necessary to do so.
If Jeffery leaves, this need jump up to a 9 as White is the only player with a reasonable level of certainty to stick on this roster. Royal effectively has a $5M team option for 2017, and given that a different quarterback will be in town, picking it up is unlikely to make a whole lot of sense unless Royal really explodes this year or next.
Tight End
Current Players: Martellus Bennett, Zach Miller, Khari Lee, Gannon Sinclair
2017 Players: Lee, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 6
Analysis: Bennett is clearly the star of this group, but his desire for a new contract and the team's unwillingness to meet his demands suggest that a divorce is likely coming in the future, either via trade or upon the expiration of his deal following the 2016 season. There will be a number of enticing options on the free agent market following the 2016 season including Miami's Jordan Cameron, Bennett, and Cincinnati's Tyler Eifert. It's entirely possible that the Bears will in fact leverage their 2016 control of Bennett into a somewhat friendly extension. Otherwise, the club will need to find a new featured tight end between now and 2017.
Defensive End
Current Players: Ego Ferguson, Jarvis Jenkins, Cornelius Washington, Will Sutton
2017 Players: Ferguson, Sutton, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 7
Analysis: Ferguson was one of the big beneficiaries of the switch from a 4-3 base defense to a 3-4 base (though query what that actually means given that the Bears spent just three snaps on Sunday in their 3-4 formation). While Ferguson looked to be a decent 4-3 defensive tackle, he is built much more ideally to play the end spot in a 3-4. With continued growth, he could very well lock down one of these jobs.
Sutton was much better suited to play the 4-3, and though strong special teams play and a few big moments this preseason kept him on the roster, he is unlikely to fit as a 3-4 end in the long term, though he could nonetheless serve as a useful reserve throughout his rookie contract.
Washington hasn't been able to get himself on the field, though his bodily transformation this offseason at least keeps him in the conversation. Jenkins is a stopgap.
No beating around the bush, here: the Bears need at least one new starter and at least one additional reserve at defensive end.
Safety
Current Players: Antrel Rolle, Adrian Amos, Ryan Mundy, Demontre Hurst, Brock Vereen, Harold Jones-Quartey
2017 Players: Amos, Vereen, Jones-Quartey, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: The presence of three names above is somewhat deceptive: only Amos figures to have a real shot at starting going forward. I never understood what the Emery regime saw in Vereen and apparently the Pace regime doesn't either as Vereen got just one defensive snap in the opener. Nevertheless, he was a core special teamer and on a rookie deal, he could stick around.
Jones-Quartey is a Division II success story for even making the active roster, but his preseason play suggests that he could play his way into a substitute job.
Regardless, a starter is needed here in addition to another depth body.
Guard
Current Players: Matt Slauson, Vladimir Ducasse, Patrick Omameh
2017 Players: Slauson, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: Slauson would be in the final year of his deal in 2017 if he makes it that far, though his cap charge only escalates $100K per season so continued production makes his presence on the roster a reasonable bet.
Ducasse will be gone and Omameh never looked that good at Michigan; a legitimate NFL career from him would be a big surprise.
The "8" need above assumes that Kyle Long will be left at right tackle. If he moves back inside, this drops to a 2.
Offensive Tackle
Current Players: Jermon Bushrod, Kyle Long, Charles Leno, Jr., Tayo Fabuluje
2017 Players: Bushrod, Long, Leno, Fabuluje
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: It might seem really odd to have the same four names listed above and nonetheless list the need as an "8," but in the case of the Bears' tackles, it makes sense.
Bushrod will be a 33-year-old in the final year of his deal in 2017, and there's a very good chance he gets cut loose following the 2016 season. Long is just a single game into his experiment at right tackle, and he could find himself back at guard in a few weeks; he'll also need an extension by 2017. Leno and Fabuluje are both massive projects with very little likelihood of success.
If Bushrod is the left tackle in 2017, he's probably in the bottom quartile of starters at his position, an alarming development for a potential new quarterback.
Outside Linebacker
Current Players: Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Jared Allen, Willie Young
2017 Players: McPhee, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 9
Analysis: The 3-4 defense doesn't work without pressure from the pass rushing outside linebackers. McPhee was a monstrous rusher around the edge in Baltimore, and I suspect that the Pace regime will ride with McPhee for years as a result. Here's hoping that the results match the pay.
Houston, on the other hand, was an Emery-era acquisition and his dead money charge drops in a big way next year as he has a $6.99M cap charge if he's on the roster in 2016 but just $2.97M in dead money if he is released. It's still reasonable to have hope for Houston playing his way into a big-time role given his past success in Oakland, but he played just four snaps in the opener. It seems unlikely that the current regime is interested in having him around.
Allen will be cut immediately following the season when his contract allows for his release without any dead money, and Young will likely find his way out of town despite a $666,668 charge thanks to his awkward fit in the 3-4.
The 2017 Bears need at least two rotation outside linebackers and a third depth piece. They're really going to have to target this spot.
Cornerback
Current Players: Kyle Fuller, Alan Ball, Tracy Porter, Sherrick McManis, Terrance Mitchell, Bryce Callahan
2017 Players: Fuller, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: As badly as the club needs outside linebackers, there is seemingly no position of greater need than cornerback (seemingly because, well, there's yet another defensive position coming next!). This need rating would be a 9.9 if I used decimals. In the new NFL, the nickelback is more of a starter than the extra linebacker is, and the Bears simply don't have the necessary bodies in the defensive backfield. Fuller is a true building block on the back end, but that's it. Mitchell is the only other player in this group with any real chance of sticking around in 2017, and he is decidedly a longshot.
The Bears need two starters and three depth pieces. They're going to add a lot of cornerbacks making this a position to watch in both free agency and the draft.
Inside Linebacker
Current Players: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, John Timu, Lamin Barrow
2017 Players: UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: It's not hard to slap a "10" on this group. McClellin was a marvelous bust from what turned out to be a spectacularly poor second half of the first round in the 2012 draft. Jones has been a success story of sorts, an undrafted free agent who played his way into the starting lineup, albeit without much success to this point. While he could continue to grow, he will be a free agent following the 2016 season. Bostic, like McClellin, has been a disastrous flop despite showcasing his tremendous athleticism at times. Timu and Barrow are both bottom-of-the-roster fodder with special teams ceilings.
As bleak as the outlook is at defensive end and cornerback, there are literally no bodies on the current roster who figure to occupy inside linebacking jobs in 2017. Wow.
Quarterback
Current Players: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen
2017 Players: UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: It's obviously easiest to throw out a "10" here. Even if Jay Cutler somehow survives next March and makes his way onto the Bears roster in 2016 (his $13M in dead money versus his $17M cap charge will go a long way there), his $2M in dead money in 2017 makes him a goner. Clausen is an easily replaceable backup.
The Bears need a quarterback, in part so that they can get someone else to play under center and in part to signal the final change to a new era.
I will never speak poorly of Cutler. His toughness and his arm strength have endeared him to me in spite of his propensity for throwing backbreaking interceptions and other ill-advised tosses into heavy coverage. The 2010 season was a blast, and Jay took an absolute beating all year to get the club into January. The 2011 season looked like his finest work to date until he broke his thumb and it all came crashing down on Caleb Hanie. The 2012 year was also spectacular until a concussion derailed the campaign. Yet still, in 2013, Jay looked like an ace quarterback playing for a team with absolutely no semblance of a defense. 2014 was a nightmare.
I expect that Jay will play tough this year and that he'll post some nice numbers thanks to a strong collection of weapons and a capable, average offensive line.
But I don't expect him to be the guy in 2017 when the team has a real shot at winning big again.
Interlude
It may seem alarmist to have so many high numbers, but I think that's just the reality of being such a poor team devoid of young talent. There are tons of holes that need to be filled. On the bright side, outside of Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long, there aren't any players on the roster who will need a big-money extension in the near future and there are some seriously big-money deals that figure to come off of the books in the upcoming seasons (Allen, Cutler, Houston). The team should have plenty of cap space with which to supplement their upcoming draft classes.
Players to Target
This list could be seemingly endless given the amount of turnover that occurs on NFL rosters every year. Accordingly, let's first start with a look at the projected roster in a simpler format.
QB: UNK, UNK
RB: Forte, Langford, UNK, UNK
TE: UNK, Lee, UNK, UNK
OT: Bushrod, Long, Leno, Fabuluje
G: Slauson, UNK, UNK
C: Grasu
DE: Ferguson, UNK, Sutton, UNK
NT: Goldman, UNK
OLB: McPhee, UNK, UNK, UNK
ILB: UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK
CB: Fuller, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK
S: UNK, Amos, Vereen, Jones-Quartey, UNK
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, UNK
And similarly, here is a slightly more confusing list of the needs by individual roster spot. For example, QB1 is a "10" whereas QB2 is a "3," accenting the difference in need between a starting QB and a backup.
10: QB1, ILB1, CB2
9: OLB2
8: G2, ILB2, CB3, S1
7: DE2
6: TE1, CB4
5: OLB3
4: ILB3
3: QB2
2: NT2
1: RB3, RB4, TE3, TE4, G3, DE4, OLB4, ILB4, ILB5, CB5, CB6, S5, LS1
Though it wasn't my intent, the divide between the positions listed in 1-5 and 6-10 provides a nice breaking point for looking at those positions that can likely be filled late in free agency or with depth draftees versus those positions that need more meaningful assets thrown at them.
Let's take a detailed look at the following positions: QB, ILB, CB, OLB, G, S, and DE.
QB
2016 Free Agents: Sam Bradford (Philadelphia)
2016 Draft Prospects: Connor Cook (Michigan St.), Christian Hackenberg (Penn St.), Cardale Jones (Ohio St.), Jared Goff (Cal)
2017 Free Agents: Drew Brees (New Orleans), Peyton Manning (ha!) (Denver)
2017 Draft Prospects: Deshaun Watson (Clemson), Kyle Allen (Texas A&M)
Analysis: The upcoming free agent classes are littered with reserve quarterbacks like Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, Kirk Cousins, and plenty of other guys who didn't play their college ball in Michigan. However, the only true option in free agency is Brees and even he is unlikely to leave New Orleans.
Thus, the Bears' new QB1 will either come via trade (yikes) or the draft. Thankfully, the 2016 draft class figures to feature four quarterbacks worth of selection in the first round. None of the quarterbacks come without serious red flags - Cook has accuracy problems, Jones has only a handful of collegiate starts, Hackenberg has been seriously stunted by a porous offensive line, and Goff comes with the stigma of having quarterbacked a Cal team to a 1-11 season as a freshman - but any of them would qualify as viable cornerstones around which to build the next contender in Chicago.
ILB
2016 Free Agents: Sean Weatherspoon (Arizona), Danny Trevathan (Denver), Brandon Marshall (Denver)
2016 Draft Prospects: Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame), Reggie Ragland (Alabama), Kendell Beckwith (LSU), Terrance Smith (Florida St.)
2017 Free Agents: Kiko Alonso (Philaelphia), Lawrence Timmons (Pittsburgh), Manti Te'o (San Diego)
2017 Draft Prospects: Reggie Northrup (Florida St.), Raekwon McMillan (Ohio St.), Tre Williams (Auburn), Reuben Foster (Alabama)
Analysis: It's a strange time for linebackers. As football has turned into a much more passing oriented game, linebackers find themselves in a point of transition. Defensive linemen are primarily valued for the ability to rush the passer while defensive backs earn their keep by stopping would-be pass catchers, not helping out in run support. Linebackers have seen their need for speed explode in this new era, and 3-4 inside linebackers are certainly no exception.
While there are no stars set to hit the market in March, both Trevathan and Marshall cut their teeth playing for John Fox in Denver, and as the Broncos prepare for life after Peyton Manning, I suspect that one of them (mercifully) finds their way onto the Bears' roster. Nevertheless, the abject of failure of Jon Bostic should leave the Bears seeking out at least one additional inside 'backer in next year's draft.
CB
2016 Free Agents: Leon Hall (Cincinnati), Prince Amukamara (New York Giants)
2016 Draft Prospects: Vernon Hargreaves III (Florida), Jalen Ramsey (Florida St.), Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech), Tre'Davious White (LSU), Cameron Sutton (Tennessee)
2017 Free Agents: Jamar Taylor (Miami), Stephon Gillmore (Buffalo), Dre Kirkpatrick (Cincinnati), D.J. Hayden (Oakland)
2017 Draft Prospects: Tony Connor (Mississippi), Jalen Tabor (Florida), Adoree Jackson (USC)
Analysis: The Bears' need in the defensive backfield is extreme, but unfortunately, the free agent pickings are relatively slim. The Bears enjoyed a decade of strong play at cornerback during the reign of Peanut Tillman as he partnered first with Nathan "The Interceptor" Vasher and later with Tim Jennings to form a strong tandem. While the hope remains that Kyle Fuller can form half of a top duo, he is doing it alone at this point. The Bears will be hard pressed to pass on any of the draft-eligible players listed above if they are available after the first round. Depending on the success of the 2015 Bears, they may even find themselves making a play for Hargreaves, Fuller, or Ramsey in May.
OLB
2016 Free Agents: Von Miller (Denver), Tamba Hali (Kansas City), Courtney Upshaw (Baltimore)
2016 Draft Prospects: Joey Bosa (Ohio St.), Scooby Wright III (Arizona), Myles Garrett (Texas A&M), Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma St.), Shilique Calhoun (Michigan St.)
2017 Free Agents: Dont'a Hightower (New England), Melvin Ingram (San Diego), Quinton Coples (New York Jets)
2017 Draft Prospects: Da'Shawn Hand (Alabama), Devonte Fields (Louisville), Leonard Floyd (Georgia)
Analysis: The Bears' need in the defensive backfield is extreme, but unfortunately, the free agent pickings are relatively slim. The Bears enjoyed a decade of strong play at cornerback during the reign of Peanut Tillman as he partnered first with Nathan "The Interceptor" Vasher and later with Tim Jennings to form a strong tandem. While the hope remains that Kyle Fuller can form half of a top duo, he is doing it alone at this point. The Bears will be hard pressed to pass on any of the draft-eligible players listed above if they are available after the first round. Depending on the success of the 2015 Bears, they may even find themselves making a play for Hargreaves, Fuller, or Ramsey in May if the club is drafting outside of the top five.
G (but really T)
2016 Free Agents: Russell Okung (Seattle), Andre Smith (Cincinnati), Andrew Whitworth (Cincinnati)
2016 Draft Prospects: Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame), Laremy Tunsil (Mississippi), Jack Conklin (Michigan St.), Taylor Decker (Ohio St.), Tyler Johnstone (Oregon)
2017 Free Agents: Matt Kalil (Minnesota), Phil Loadholt (Minnesota), Riley Reiff (Detroit), Eric Fisher (Kansas City), Luke Joeckel (Jacksonville)
2017 Draft Prospects: Cam Robinson (Alabama), Germain Ifedi (Texas A&M), Jerald Hawkins (LSU)
Analysis: While the position of need is technically guard, there's no real sense in acquiring a guard prospect instead of a tackle. Bushrod is nearing the end of the line with a back injury beginning to slow him down while Long is almost certainly best situated in the interior. Accordingly, every name listed above is that of a tackle.
Thankfully for the Bears, this is a very good time to be in the market for an offensive tackle. While the team would be hard-pressed to pass up the chance to grab a potential franchise signal caller in the top five of the 2016 draft, a slightly more successful season could leave the top quarterbacks off the board by the time the Bears draft with one of Stanley or Tunsil potentially available. Either would be a marvelous choice. With a few prominent options hitting free agency over the next couple of years and a half dozen compelling draft prospects, this could be an area that the Bears address by taking advantage of the depth in the marketplace.
S
2016 Free Agents: Eric Weddle (San Diego), Eric Berry (Kansas City), Tashaun Gipson (Cleveland)
2016 Draft Prospects: Jalen Mills (LSU), Darian Thompson (Boise St.), Nate Andrews (Florida St.), Karl Joseph (West Virginia)
2017 Free Agents: Reshad Jones (Miami), Harrison Smith (Minnesota), Malcolm Jenkins (Philadelphia), Eric Reid (San Francisco)
2017 Draft Prospects: Vonn Bell (Ohio St.), Max Redfield (Notre Dame), Jayron Kearse (Clemson), Orion Stewart (Baylor)
Analysis: There are a couple of truly excellent safeties hitting the free agent market this winter, but it remains to be seen if the new regime will commit the resources necessary to solving a decades-long problem spot instead of attempting to fix the position with band-aids. I would be particularly interested in Mills as a Day Two selection this year, appreciating fully that a big year from Mills will likely vault him into the first round. Still, he has the type of athleticism that the Bears have lacked at the position since the departure of the occasionally brilliant yet inconsistent Danieal Manning.
Regardless of the club's approach to the position, it's clear that there is a lot of pressure riding on Adrian Amos.
DE
2016 Free Agents: Muhammad Wilkerson (New York Jets), Letroy Guion (Green Bay)
2016 Draft Prospects: A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), Adolphus Washington (Ohio St.), Chris Jones (Mississippi St.), Robert Nkemdiche (Mississippi), Shawn Oakman (Baylor), Anthony Zettel (Penn St.)
2017 Free Agents: Sheldon Richardson (New York Jets), Calais Campbell (Arizona), Fletcher Cox (Philadelphia), Datone Jones (Green Bay)
2017 Draft Prospects: Andrew Billings (Baylor), Jonathan Allen (Alabama), Jonathan Bullard (Florida), Montravious Adams (Auburn)
Analysis: As was the case at offensive tackle, there are actually a bevy of compelling options to man the all-important 3-4 DE spot reaching the marketplace in the coming years. The Bears will have plenty of flexibility in filling this spot as collegiate defensive tackles and NFL DEs can both fit the bill.
My Ideal Scenario
That was a ton of information, but the entire point of this monstrous post was to get here: my vision for crafting the 2017 Bears into a real contender.
While I'd love to trade off superfluous parts for late-round draft picks, I'm going to approach this assuming that the Bears have their full allotment of picks (excluding the 2017 sixth-rounder sent to Houston for TE Khari Lee) and that they don't acquire or lose any picks in either draft class.
2016 Offseason
Players to Cut (cap charge)
OLB Jared Allen ($0)
OLB Willie Young ($666,668)
ILB Jon Bostic ($311,509)
SS Antrel Rolle ($0)
Allen and Rolle are no-brainers are past-their-prime players due too much cash and cap space. Young is unfortunate, but it's tough to see him rebounding from such a serious injury and fitting well into a 3-4 defense. Bostic is an incredibly disappointing outcome, but for a player that can't get on the field, the $942,381 of cap space that his release would create is probably his best use to the team. Such a letdown.
And then there's Jay. He can stick around for 2016 if he plays exceptionally well in 2015 as his dead money charge drops from $13M in 2016 to $2M in 2017, but if the Bears draft a quarterback in 2016, it probably makes more sense to send Jay packing and complete the turning of the page. This will be one of the defining choices of the Ryan Pace era, and I think he'll keep Cutler around for 2016 instead of burning 2016 on a rookie or a journeyman. I just don't know.
(NOTE: watching Jimmy Clausen run the Bears' offense, it seems likely that Cutler will be back next year. The drop off from Jay to the readily available NFL QBs is massive.)
Players to Re-Sign
RB Matt Forte
WR Alshon Jeffery
Forte's contract is genuinely difficult to peg whereas Jeffery's is incredibly easy. Marshawn Lynch, who is the same age as Forte and similarly productive, secured a two-year, $24M extension. I think that such a deal would be a mostly palatable option to the Bears and Forte, though Forte will have more leverage as an impending free agent. Accordingly, I could see a three-year, $35M extension getting the job done with the following structure:
2016: $9M base, $3M roster bonus (guaranteed)
2017: $10M base (guaranteed)
2018: $10M base, $3M roster bonus (no guarantees)
The Bears give Forte a much larger guarantee ($22M) than Lynch, but they effectively just give him a two-year, $22M deal with a roster bonus early in 2018 to allow him to hit free agency, as appropriate, if he is released.
Jeffery is simple. Here are the extensions recently signed by other top young receivers:
AJ Green: 4 years, $60M ($32.75M guaranteed)
Julio Jones: 5 years, $71.3M ($47M guaranteed)
TY Hilton: 5 years, $65M ($28M guaranteed)
Jeffery isn't quite as good as Green or Jones, but he is better than Hilton, though Alshon comes with significant injury concerns. Accordingly, I expect the following deal with Alshon:
Signing Bonus: $12M
2016: $5M base, $2M roster bonus (fully guaranteed)
2017: $8M base (fully guaranteed)
2018: $5M base, $4M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $13M base (no guarantees)
2020: $14M base, $2M roster bonus (no guarantees)
The total guarantee reaches $32M and the year by year cap hit is $9.4M, $10.4M, $11.4M, $15.4M, and $18.4M. It would be reported as a 5 year, $65M deal with $32M guaranteed.
Given the number of comparables, this shouldn't be the toughest deal to execute.
Players to Sign
ILB Brandon Marshall: 5 years, $30M ($12M guaranteed)
OT Andre Smith: 4 years, $24M ($8M guaranteed)
Marshall is a tricky a player, a thrice-waiver undrafted free agent who exploded onto the scene recently. This contract essentially values him like Pernell McPhee, albeit with Marshall at a slightly less expensive position. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $2.5M
2016: $4M base (fully guaranteed)
2017: $5M base, $0.5M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2018: $5M base (no guarantee)
2019: $5.5M base (no guarantee)
2020: $7M base (no guarantee)
Smith, on the other hand, is on the way down in his career with the Bengals ready to cut bait as evidenced by their drafting back-to-back tackles last May. This deal would give him a chance to reestablish himself as a viable starting tackle. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $2M
2016: $4M base (guaranteed)
2017: $2M base, $2M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2018: $6M base (no guarantee)
2019: $8M base (no guarantee)
Obviously the Bears would fill out the roster with cheaper players, but I'm not going through the Terrance Mitchells and the Alan Balls of the football world here.
Draft Dream
I'm assuming that the Bears end up with the fifth overall pick, as I projected before the season began. That will almost certainly be wrong, but I'm going to roll with it.
R1: OLB Joey Bosa (Ohio St.)
R2: S Jalen Mills (LSU)
R3: DE Anthony Zettel (Penn St.)
R4: CB Eric Murray (Minnesota)
R5: ILB Terrance Smith (Florida St.)
R6: TE Johnny Mundt (Oregon)
R7: CB Blake Countess (Auburn)
Holy Toledo, that's a lot of defensive players. I promise that I didn't set out to make such a class; it just worked out like that. I think it goes without saying that I would be thrilled by such a class.
2016 Snapshot in Time
This post is already absurd and nobody will ever read it, so I might as well take a moment to provide a snapshot of the 2016 roster based on these moves:
QB: Jay Cutler, ?????
RB: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, ?????
TE: Martellus Bennett, Khari Lee, Johnny Mundt, ?????
WR: Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, ?????
WR: Kevin White, Marquess Wilson
LT: Jermon Bushrod, Charles Leno, Jr.
LG: Matt Slauson, ?????
C: Hroniss Grasu
RG: Kyle Long
RT: Andre Smith, Tayo Fabuluje
DE: Ego Ferguson, ?????
NT: Eddie Goldman, ?????
DE: Anthony Zettel, Will Sutton
OLB: Pernell McPhee, ?????
ILB: Christian Jones, ?????
ILB: Terrance Smith, ?????
OLB: Joey Bosa, Lamarr Houston
CB: Kyle Fuller, Blake Countess, ?????
S: Jalen Mills, Brock Vereen
S: Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, ?????
CB: Eric Murray, ?????
2017 Offseason
Players to Cut (cap charge)
QB Jay Cutler ($2M)
RB Ka'Deem Carey ($110,845)
WR Eddie Royal ($0)
OLB Lamarr Houston ($1.98M)
Obviously it's possible that any of these four players could change our perceptions of them over the next 31 games, but it's just as possible that some of them will already be gone by the time March 2017 rolls around. Cutler's exit is clearly the marquee attraction here.
Players to Re-Sign
G Kyle Long
ILB Christian Jones
Although Martellus Bennett will be a free agent, I imagine that he will find his way off of the roster before the end of the 2016 season, though I do enjoy watching him play. Long can be extended on his fifth year option at what figures to be approximately $9M. As for Jones, he may play his way off of the roster by 2017 while he may instead play his way into a restricted free agent tender. Either way, there won't be big contractual decisions to make in early 2017 for players already on the roster.
Players to Sign
WR Emmanuel Sanders: 3 years, $18M ($7M guaranteed)
OLB Quinton Coples: 3 years, $15M ($7M guaranteed)
Sanders makes oodles of sense, and I fully suspect that veterans will be fleeing Denver by March 2017. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $0
2017: $5M base (guaranteed)
2018: $3M base, $3M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $7M base (no guarantee)
Here's the breakdown on Coples, a converted defensive end who feels like a fringe starter and gets paid as such to play in a strong rotation with McPhee and Bosa:
Signing Bonus: $3M
2017: $3M (guaranteed)
2018: $1M base, $3M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $5M (no guarantee)
Draft Dream
R1: QB Christian Hackenberg (Penn St.)
R2: TE O.J. Howard (Alabama)
R3: CB Jalen Tabor (Florida)
R4: ILB Raekwon McMillan (Ohio St.)
R5: NT Austin Johnson (Penn St.)
R7: WR Bralon Addison (Oregon)
I promise I'm not cheating. I think Hackenberg stands a good chance to return to school for his senior season in 2016 to reestablish his stock as an elite quarterback, making millions along the way.
2017 Snapshot in Time
This is the real meat of this entire, monstrous post. The 2017 Bears:
QB: Christian Hackenberg, ?????
RB: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, ?????, ?????
TE: O.J. Howard, Johnny Mundt, Khari Lee, ?????
WR: Alshon Jeffery, Bralon Addison, ?????
WR: Kevin White, Emmanuel Sanders
LT: Jermon Bushrod, Charles Leno, Jr.
LG: Matt Slauson, ?????
C: Hroniss Grasu
RG: Kyle Long
RT: Andre Smith, Tayo Fabuluje
DE: Ego Ferguson, ?????
NT: Eddie Goldman, Austin Johnson
DE: Anthony Zettel, Will Sutton
OLB: Pernell McPhee, Quinton Coples
ILB: Raekwon McMillan, ?????
ILB: Terrance Smith, ?????
OLB: Joey Bosa, ?????
CB: Kyle Fuller, Blake Countess, ?????
S: Jalen Mills, Brock Vereen
S: Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, ?????
CB: Jalen Tabor, Eric Murray
Pfew. That was a lot.
Decompress and Wrap Up
Look, there's a 0.00000000000001% chance of this happening and quite honestly, I'll be surprised if any of the moves listed above come to fruition. I do know that this exercise has largely confirmed for me what I already believed: the Bears need to add a ton of talent on their defense and a lot of that is going to come through the draft.
That said, they also need to use free agency because the amount of talent required is far greater than their allotment of picks. They need another Pernell McPhee or two, a guy who the metrics love, who the scouts like, and who was otherwise blocked by a star-level player. When you can make a short-term commitment to that kind of guy but with long-term control if it works out, you can strike it rich...or get out of a mistake quickly. That worked exceptionally well for the Bears with Adewale Ogunleye: as it turned out, he was, in fact, really good and not just a Jason Taylor-created mirage. It certainly doesn't always work out like that. But that's where the Bears should live for now.
That's enough for now. The Bears need to add a ton of players, mostly defenders, to the roster before they have a real chance to be relevant and avoid embarrassing showings like they had against the Cardinals. Here's hoping Ryan Pace makes it happen.
